Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/04/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although smoke (aloft) will continue to increase overnight from wildfires in UT, WY, CO, AZ and a couple smaller fires in NM. Haze is expected Sunday, but vsbys are forecast to remain above 6SM. Otherwise, a gusty east canyon wind will develop around sunset here at KABQ, but the strongest gusts are forecast to remain in the 25-30kt range. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A weak backdoor cold front has brought gusty easterly winds for the central mountain chain this afternoon and slightly cooler temperatures for the eastern plains. In addition, hazy skies will continue this weekend from the Cow Canyon Fire in southeast AZ. After this, temperatures climb 5-15 degrees above normal into next week for early October, with no precipitation in sight. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... A 1021mb surface high center will continue building southward into eastern NM in the wake of a back door cold front this morning. The pressure and density gradient across the central mt chain will be rather weak. However, a brief period of east canyon winds is still likely in the RGV. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible on the east side of ABQ for a few hours this evening. Min temps will be warmer than last night with veering wind profiles, higher dewpoints, and weaker inversions. Sunday will be another very dry and warm day for early October. A 591dm H5 high center will drift eastward from AZ while a lee side trough strengthens over eastern NM. Max temps will warm 5 to 10F above normal across western NM and rebound close to normal over the eastern plains. HRRR smoke guidance still indicates haze in place over the region through Sunday. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... By Monday, high pressure will be squarely focused over the southwestern U.S. This will be the warmest day of the week, with 700 mb temperatures in the 12-14 C range and some locations experiencing near record temperatures. Another backdoor cold front enters the picture Monday night into Tuesday, lowering temperatures a few degrees across the east, but still above normal for early October. By mid-week, the high begins to shift over New Mexico and weakens late week as a trough focuses across the western U.S. Still, there is some uncertainty in the extended, as the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are showing different placements and timing for the trough and how it might affect New Mexico at this time, while the GFS ensemble keeps ridging in place. Regardless, one model or another isn`t being favored, as they`re pretty consistent with above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue at least for the next week. Guyer/31 && .FIRE WEATHER... A strong ridge of high pressure will drift east over NM through late next week with very dry and warm conditions for early October. Winds will be relatively light except for Monday when a weak upper level trough forces stronger northwest flow over the region. Critical fire weather conditions are possible for a few hours in the area from near Clines Corners to Las Vegas and Santa Rosa. A weak back door cold front will then slide into eastern NM Monday night with briefly cooler temps Tuesday. Otherwise, a very quiet weather pattern is in store with poor to fair ventilation on most days. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
816 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .DISCUSSION... No updates needed this evening. BT Tonight through Sunday night... High pressure will prevail over the area into Sunday with warm, dry and breezy conditions expected. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to 80s on Sunday with relative humidity dropping well into the teens for many areas. Westerly mix down winds will develop along the western foothills, stretching eastward into central areas during the afternoon. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible, with some areas touching 40 mph. As such, have gone ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, in effect from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Will continue to monitor the wind trends to see if the RFW needs to be expanded. One thing that may limit temperatures and/or wind potential on Sunday is the smoke/haze from western wildfires. The HRRR shows smoke/haze increasing from west to east across the area during the day. Winds eventually shift out of the north Sunday night as a dry front and associated shortwave drop south out of Canada. Low temperatures in the 30s to 40s can be expected tonight and Sunday night. STP Monday through Saturday... The broken record in the extended continues through the end of the week. Temperatures still will be somewhat of a roller coaster as a a few cold fronts cross the area every couple of days. While these fronts will result in some cooler temperatures and a wind shift, not expecting any precipitation. Monday will be cooler behind the front, expecting breezy conditions. Relative humidity will be slightly higher with the cooler temperatures, but the breezy conditions will result continued elevated fire weather conditions. Still watching next weekend for the potential for a change in the pattern. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the evolution of a trough moving into the western US, and the operational GFS is still a little deeper and faster with the ECMWF. However there is still plenty of indication of a shift towards potentially cooler and wetter. Reimer && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail through the period with passing mid and high clouds. Gusty westerly winds will develop across the western foothills into central areas tomorrow. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044/083 051/073 048/082 045/073 044/082 047/077 046/075 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B LVM 041/081 043/075 043/081 041/077 042/081 043/077 042/073 00/N 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W HDN 039/084 046/072 045/082 043/075 040/082 043/078 043/077 00/H 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B MLS 038/081 050/071 046/078 043/072 042/079 045/077 044/076 00/U 01/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 4BQ 037/081 048/070 046/079 043/074 043/080 046/078 044/078 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 035/076 047/068 044/075 041/069 041/076 045/076 042/074 00/U 01/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 036/081 046/071 041/080 042/077 042/082 044/079 042/078 00/H 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES 117-123>125-127-128. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
749 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure centered north of the area will extend into the area over the weekend. The air mass will be cool and dry today with moisture near the coast along a stalled frontal boundary. The moisture may spread into the far eastern Midlands Sunday with a few light showers possible. A dry cold front will move through the area Sunday night. Temperatures will moderate next week and mainly dry conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High clouds from a weak frontal boundary offshore of the SE US has begun spreading into the Midlands and will continue increasing over the area overnight. Winds will remain northeasterly at 5 mph or less as high pressure ridges into the area from the north. With the clouds limiting radiational cooling overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the western Midlands/CSRA to the mid 50s across the eastern Midlands. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday and Sunday Night: A deep upper trough will be in place over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley on Sunday. An offshore baroclinic zone will retrograde closer to the coast on Sunday, with associated moisture and weak isentropic lift encroaching upon the eastern Midlands. Overall, rain chances appear very low given the lack of deep moisture, but will indicate a slight chance of rain near eastern portions of Lake Marion. A drier northeast flow farther inland will result in rain-free conditions and less cloud cover. The HRRR smoke model does indicate that smoke from western U.S. wildfires should increase over the area, but do not anticipate any reduced visibilities. Highs should be in the lower 70s, possibly a bit cooler over the eastern Midlands due to the more extensive cloud cover. The upper trough will shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night, pushing the coastal front back offshore, and all of the associated moisture with it. Skies will gradually clear though the night, with lows in the lower and mid 50s. Monday and Monday Night: The upper level flow will become more zonal across the area as surface high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. Dry conditions with highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A zonal flow aloft will prevail through the long term period with a ridge of high pressure to the north keeping deep moisture and precipitation south of the area. A dry cold front appears to move through late Wednesday/Thursday. An onshore return flow by late Friday will allow for increasing moisture from the south and provide the next chance of rain. Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday, then rise above normal Wednesday and Thursday before cooling off again late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the forecast period. Next to nothing is ongoing across the region, as moisture is limited beneath surface high pressure ridging in from the northeast. Mid & high level moisture is streaming northeastward across the region from TS Gamma over the Gulf, and high clouds are expected across the region through the period. Not expecting fog or stratus tonight, with a strong low level jet over the region and high level clouds keeping us from clearing out. As we head into tomorrow, moisture gradient currently across the coastline will move into the coastal plain, providing more cloudiness to our southeast. OGB is expected to see broken clouds in the mid and upper levels all day, with scattered clouds developing beneath the upper level cloud deck elsewhere. Winds will be light out of the northeast through the period, between 3 and 8 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
537 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .DISCUSSION... Evening Update... Winds have been increased across southern Phillips, Petroleum, and western Garfield Counties for Sunday afternoon and evening. A surface trough moving through the area will cause an increase in westerly winds, which will make for critical fire weather conditions across these areas. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has now been issued for zones 136 and 137 from noon to 9 PM Sunday. -Mottice Previous Discussion... Upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest gets shoved a bit into Montana Sunday while at the surface, a trough over Alberta begins it`s drop to the southeast. This will allow warmer air to begin moving into the CWA Sunday as surface winds increase from the south then southwest. With the help of some compressional warming, Temperatures should reach the mid 80s over the SW zones. Some elevated smoke or haze may limit the warming late in the afternoon (as seen in the 12z HRRR model). Models historically, however, do do not pick up very well on this slight cooling. Minimum humidity and wind for Sunday afternoon does approach critical conditions in Petroleum county, but still think it`s too marginal to pull any triggers on Fire Weather highlights at this time. Cold front drops southeast through the area Sunday Night with clouds and scattered sprinkles moving in from the northwest Monday morning. Only have an area in the eastern zones with slight chance of showers at this time. A broad WNW or northwest flow then is in place for much of next week with temperatures above normal. Then an upper trough begins digging into the Pacific Northwest by week`s end that could bring a slightly cooler airmass into the area beyond the forecast. TFJ && .AVIATION... Last Updated: 2000Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: expect mainly clear skies tonight and Sunday. WIND: Light and variable winds tonight except KGGW will see its 10 knot nocturnal east wind tonight. South winds begin to increase Sunday to 15 kts and turn to SW. TFJ && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for MTZ136-137. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1037 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show shortwave energy moving across the region within the base of a longwave trough. The shortwave combined with weak low level troughing is contributing to widespread light rainfall over much of east- central and far northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon. As a result of the light rain and cloud cover, temperatures remain in the 40s across the region. Some breaks in the clouds are occurring behind the system over northwest Wisconsin into northern Minnesota. Light precip trends and potential for frost/freeze are the main forecast concerns. Tonight...The shortwave energy will slowly move east and exit the northeast Wisconsin shoreline areas late tonight. Light rainfall will likely continue over east-central and far northeast WI through mid-evening before gradually exiting from west to east thereafter. A clearing trend will then move in from the west overnight, though some areas will struggle to clear prior to 12z thanks to north flow on the backside of the system. This northerly flow could keep clouds over far northern WI and also eastern WI through late in the night. The area which has the highest probability of clearing appears to be central WI, which is farthest removed from any lake influences. Will therefore issue a frost advisory for areas west of the Fox Valley. North winds will also increase late in the night which will likely also inhibit frost formation in the east. Raised temps over eastern WI a couple degrees. Sunday...Some clouds may be lingering along the Lake Michigan shoreline early in the day. Wind trajectories look too northerly for any showers over the lake to move inland, so removed the small chance of precip. Some clouds may also linger early in the morning over far northern WI as a result of flow off Lake Superior. Elsewhere, an uptick of cloud cover with daytime heating by mid to late morning is expected and went cloudier than models indicate. With mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, warmer temps ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s are forecast for afternoon highs. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 The medium range models are in decent agreement with the pattern at 500mb and surface features from Sunday night through Thursday. They all forecast Northwest upper flow with a couple of shortwaves and surface fronts moving through. Gulf moisture is not available so any precipitation will be light. Heights are relatively high for this time of the year, so it will be a few degrees above normal most days. Some frost is possible late Sunday night as a surface high moves across Wisconsin. Increasing winds in the boundary layer could reduce the chance of frost, however. Frost or freezes look unlikely Tuesday through the end of the week, for those who still have agricultural activities going. A weak cold front Monday night could produce some sprinkles or light rain showers, while a stronger front Tuesday night has a better chance of producing showers, especially in the north. The upper winds flatten out Friday as a longwave upper trough approaches the West Coast. The GFS has a much more defined warm front at the surface Friday with some elevated precipitation as it moves north. The ECMWF and Canadian are dry and will go with that idea as the atmosphere will be quite dry with the surface high still over lower Michigan. Saturday looks to mild and breezy as a weak cold front approaches. Fronts this time of the year start to come through dry much of the time, and this one may do the same. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Light rain over mainly eastern WI will gradually taper off early in the TAF period. As this occurs, any lingering MVFR ceilings in the rainy areas should return to VFR. The exception will be in parts of far north central WI, where some MVFR ceilings off Lake Superior may persist for a while. Otherwise, clearing is expected to progress from west to east overnight into early Sunday, with only scattered cumulus lingering for the late morning and afternoon. Clear skies are anticipated Sunday night. North winds will increase in eastern WI overnight into Sunday morning. Gusts to 15 to 20 knots are possible in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas on Sunday, but winds should quickly subside late in the day, and remain light into the evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ020-030-031-035>037- 045. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
858 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .UPDATE... 857 PM CDT The forecast message remains a wet one through a good part of tonight with the going high PoPs, rainfall amounts, and timing all looking good. Changes to the forecast have all been merely tweaks. There is the chance some lake effect showers could graze the northeast Illinois shore, including downtown Chicago, midday Sunday, while likely some will reach the northwest Indiana shore. The impressive trough for early October continues to dig in on the synoptic scale across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, ushered in by a due southward oriented 125 kt upper jet from central Canada into the central United States. The cold air aloft is certainly present, with the 00Z DVN sounding sampling 0C at 850 mb, and that supports the KDVN radar correlation coefficient indicating a mix of rain and snow as low as 2,500 ft in northwest Illinois. The boundary layer will remain sufficiently warm for the rest of the night for all the precip to fall as rain, so no worries there! The primary vorticity maximum center will pass the area during overnight, so will see rain tapering fast in north central Illinois around midnight and in Chicago near 3 a.m. Higher resolution guidance, basically that of convection-allowing scale or close, is depicting a slight higher signal in lake effect showers on Sunday. The steering flow would still support more of far northwest Indiana to see these, but it`s worth noting the HRRR and RAP this evening have trended slightly further west, even grazing the northeast Illinois shore with QPF. RAP soundings do show 200-500 J/kg of lake-induced CAPE with equilibrium levels around 10,000 ft, so certainly sufficient for some showers to develop. However there will be a race against drier air working into the area especially mid-late afternoon. For now no changes to the going forecast PoPs but will note to the overnight shift. MTF && .SHORT TERM... 226 PM CDT Through Sunday night... We`re finally starting to see the influence of a rather sharp shortwave which is slicing through Minnesota and north-central Iowa with a gradual expansion to a region of light rain spreading towards parts of central and north-central Illinois. This is occurring as the remaining region of dry air in the 850-700 mb layer is more fully saturating, as evidenced by recent VAPOR AMDAR soundings. We`ll continue to see this precipitation shield expand and fill in through the afternoon and evening hours as large scale forcing for ascent gradually increases. Model cross sections depict the development of at least a modest f-gen circulation late this evening in response to the deepening larger-scale indirect ageostrophic circulation under a departing 120+ kt upper-level jet. So while most of this event will feature only light rain, periods of locally more moderate activity appear probable late this evening and into the early-overnight hours near locales straddling the I-55/57 corridors where this frontogenetic circulation is maximized. There`s actually a brief window where some non-zero instability to upright convection develops in our southeastern zones as lapse rates steepen up a bit. Probably not enough to worry about electrification, but moreso assisting in the production of briefly more moderate rainfall. Precipitation and cloud cover may clear our far northwestern locales early enough to support at least some threat for fog and/or low cloud development towards sunrise on Sunday. Think that winds just off the deck look too robust for much of a dense fog threat, however with more of just a shallow mist and low stratus potential. Temperatures will also fall into the upper 30s with the arrival of a northwest wind shift, but the low- levels will dry out quickly enough to end any precipitation well before the column cools enough to support any mixing of p-types. Northwest winds remaining up around 5-10 mph will likely curtail the potential for much frost development in our northwest early Sunday morning. Have generally sped up the departure of precipitation chances Sunday morning with this forecast package, confining and straggling chances to northwest Indiana. Lake effect parameters, while marginal, will support carrying chance PoPs through Sunday afternoon into parts of Porter, Lake, and Jasper Counties. Breezy north to northwest winds will then develop through the morning Sunday and afternoon, with some occasional gusts into the 25 to perhaps 30 mph range. The other story will be the period of near-freezing temperatures Sunday night as the spine of an encroaching area of high pressure crests overhead and winds go nearly calm. We`ll likely have to contend with just a bit of high-level cloud cover at times, but the radiational cooling potential looks solid, especially with dewpoints in the lower 30s. We do show a few 31-32 degree readings in our typical cool spots (Woodstock, Aurora, Rochelle areas for example), but the sub-freezing potential looks pretty localized and insufficient in areal extent to warrant any Freeze Headlines. We will, however, likely need a Frost Advisory for much of the region away from the immediate urbanized Chicago corridors, and will let the midnight shift take a look at this orientation. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... 245 PM CDT Monday through Saturday... The primary Storm track is expected to remain north of the area though the period. For this reason, there are no good chances for precipitation through the forecast period. Expect temperatures to be more seasonable next week, with highs generally in the 60s, with low 70s at times. A surface high that move move across the area Sunday night will shift to our southeast during the day Monday. This will allow the winds to turn southerly in its wake for Monday into Tuesday. Moderating temperatures in this warm air advection pattern will push highs back into the lower 60s for Monday, and potentially up around 70 for Tuesday. A weather disturbance passing mainly to our north on Tuesday may drop a weak cold front over the area during the day, but this looks to do little to the temperatures as the flow quickly shift back out of the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a fast moving clipper system dropping southeastward over Ontario. This system will result in a mild and breezy day Wednesday, with a stronger cold front expected to shift southward over the area during the day. It continues to look dry across the area with this frontal passage, so we continue to advertise a dry forecast. We only look to get a glancing blow at some cooler air in the wake of this front, so we can expect temperatures to be in the lower to mid 60s for Thursday. Thereafter, we look to get back into a mild weather pattern, supportive of highs around 70 for next Friday. Even warmer temperatures, potently well into the 70s, are possible for a period next weekend. KJB && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... 627 PM...Forecast concerns include... Light rain through early Sunday morning. Mvfr cigs tonight. Gusty northerly winds Sunday. Light rain will continue across the entire area this evening and slowly end from northwest to southeast early Sunday morning. The rain may briefly reduce visibilities into mvfr. As the low levels saturate...cigs are expected to lower into mvfr across much of central IL and northern IN. Confidence is decreasing for how low cigs will become across the terminals. Mvfr cigs are still expected but may remain in the 2kft range across most areas. The best chance for 1kft cigs is likely along an arr/jot/gyy line with ifr possible south of that line. Cigs are expect to slowly lift into vfr Sunday morning. If clouds scatter out by Sunday morning across northwest IL there is some potential for either light fog or a low stratus deck but confidence remains low. Light westerly winds will shift light north/northwest this evening with speeds increasing after the rain ends overnight. Speeds into the 12-16kt range are expected Sunday morning with gusts into the lower/mid 20kt range. Speeds and gusts will slowly diminish Sunday afternoon and a lake breeze/wind shift to the north/northeast is expected for ord/mdw. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745...7 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
844 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .UPDATE... A cold front is currently on the doorstep of Northeast Arkansas. Thus far there have been some light returns from KNQA and KPAH radars near the MO/AR border. The returns are likely just sprinkles. However, models do show some isolated showers developing as the front moves into the Mid-South. Made some minor adjustments to POPS and cloud cover. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks good. Low temperatures will be warmer tonight with readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s. KRM && .DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020/ Yet another pretty day for the Mid-South today, with a few clouds here and there. Current radar trends have showers approach the area, then dissipate in northern Mississippi. Short range models indicate the potential for more showers this evening, but no appreciable rainfall amounts. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be a bit higher than they were last night, with lows generally in the upper 50s. As for tomorrow, highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. A cold front will swing through the area later tonight into early tomorrow morning from the north. Light showers will move into the area early Sunday morning but, no severe weather is expected, possibly just a few claps of thunder. Showers should move out of the area from west to east by tomorrow afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail early next week. Long range models show the potential for showers to move into the area next weekend in association with a possible system moving from the Gulf. Confidence is low at this time, but added slight chance of PoPs Friday night into early Saturday morning. With light winds, cooler temperatures are expected, with Tuesday morning lows in 40s over most, if not all of the Mid-South. However, high temperatures will bounce back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by midweek. SGW && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conds are expected for the period as a weak cold front pushes through the region. A few SHRAs are possible mainly across northern sections of the Mid-South. The latest HRRR is showing some post-frontal low clouds working into the KJBR Sunday morning so added a TEMPO for some MVFR cigs there. Winds will shift from light southerly ahead of the front to NW at 10 kts behind the front. SJM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
730 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2020 Satellite this afternoon shows most if not all of the U.P. socked in with stratus, plus some cirrus on top of that over the south-central and east. Isolated to scattered rain showers - both lake-driven as well as driven by a mix of diurnal instability and weak mid-level forcing for ascent - continue to drift pretty much aimlessly across the area as well. Expect these to decrease in coverage somewhat this evening with the loss of diurnal instability. However, lake-effect rain showers will persist beneath 850 mb temps remaining around -5 C. Although the flow looks weak enough to keep these mostly offshore, there is some slight indication in the models that convergence could re-focus in a broad NW-SE oriented band form the Keweenaw into Marquette and Alger counties Sunday morning, so broad- brushed slight chance POPs in those areas. On land, it will probably get cold enough for some of these showers to mix with or change over to snow again this evening. Nothing more than perhaps a light dusting is expected, however. Meanwhile, a subtle short wave embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft will spin up a weak surface cyclone over Lower Michigan this evening. A little bit of mid-level fgen as well as increasing Q- vector convergence associated with this wave will focus more showers south-central and east overnight. It remains a question just how far onshore these push but given that the precip on radar seems to be just a bit north of where the CAMs have it, and that the RAP is more aggressive in bringing these showers onshore, included chance POPs tonight from Menominee to Escanaba and Newberry, and points east of this line. Tomorrow, the broad upper-level trough that`s been parked over the region the past few days is expected to lift off to the northeast. Height rises and subsidence behind it will lead to clearing skies for the most part, although low-level clouds will probably hang on over the higher terrain of the central U.P. where NNE upslope/onshore flow will persist for much of the day thanks to that weak surface low continuing to deepen, now over southern Ontario. While it`ll still be cold aloft, the clearing skies should allow most areas to mix out to near 50 degrees for a high. The exception will be where cloud cover hangs on, keeping highs in the mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2020 A seasonable stretch of weather is expected for much of the extended period. Upper heights will continue to rise Sunday night across the Great Lakes as next shortwave moves across Canada into far western Ontario by early Monday. Southerly winds will be on the increase Monday with tightening pressure gradient. High temperatures will rebound into the mid/upper 50s but gusty winds will make it feel a little cooler. As shortwave continues eastward across Ontario, a weak cold front will cross the Upper Lakes Monday evening/night. Better dynamics are further north and moisture is pretty limited so only expect lower chance pops and minimal rain amounts across the north. The next quick moving disturbance will approach the area later Tuesday into early Wednesday. This one will be a little stronger and track a little further south than Mondays. Expect the best chance of rain for the week...albeit still the cold front crosses the area Tuesday night. 85H temps will cool to the 0 to -4C range by late Wednesday and maybe a degree or two cooler on Thursday. Daytime temperatures both days will be fall-like but within a couple of degrees of where they should be for October. Models differ a little on how quickly warming will return late in the week. GFS brings one more glancing shot of cool air next weekend before a short bout of above normal temperatures. ECMWF suggests a 3 to 4 day stretch of above normal temperatures...perhaps late summer- weekend into early the following week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 729 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2020 VFR conditions should prevail thru the fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. There may be some ocnl periods of high end MVFR cigs thru Sun morning, but potential appears quite low. Thus, no mention was included in fcst. With isold to sct -shra lingering into Sun morning from nw into n central Upper MI, a few brief -shra could occur at KCMX/KSAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2020 Light winds are expected to continue across the lake tonight, although a few 15 kts gusts are possible on the east half late tonight into Sunday morning as a weak wave of low pressure skirts by to the southeast. The next period to watch for stronger winds still looks to be Monday when southerlies out ahead of a cold front could gust to near gale force on the eastern half of the lake, especially late afternoon and early evening. Winds 15-20 kts are expected behind the front on Tuesday. Another period of stronger wind is expected to begin Tuesday night when SW winds will veer around to NW and gust to around 25 kts west half and at least 30 kts east half. Will continue to monitor the period from Tuesday night through Wednesday night for possible NW gales on the east half of the lake. Could see gales included in future forecasts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJC LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...RJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 Currently...sunny, quiet conditions will prevail this afternoon across southern Colorado. Temperatures are nice, with 60s and 70s across the region. Tonight and Sunday...high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, while an upper trough sits over the Missouri Valley. This will lead to prevailing northwesterly flow aloft across Colorado through the next 24 hours. The main forecast concern will be the potential for smoke and haze from the Mullen and Comanche Peak Fires to the northwest. Followed the HRRR smoke guidance for the next 24 hours. Haze will thicken with smoke moving into the area overnight, and prevailing into Sunday morning or early afternoon. Areas along the I-25 corridor from El Paso County, south into Pueblo could see poor air, especially tomorrow morning. Overnight lows tonight will be cool, with 40s across the plains, and 20s to 30s over the San Luis Valley and mountains. Highs on Sunday will be warmer, with 70s to lower 80s across the region. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 No significant weather is expected Mon through Sat, as dry weather and above average temperatures are forecast. Mon, a disturbance will move through eastern CO, sending a dry front through the area in the afternoon. Dry conditions and slightly breezy conditions along portions of the Continental Divide Mon afternoon could lead to some spotty critical fire weather conditions, but not widespread enough to warrant a fire weather highlight at this time. On Tue and upper ridge builds over the area and remains in place through Wed. Thu and into early Fri, the ridge gets flattened over the area as a disturbance moves through the flow aloft. The upper ridge then rebuilds over the area on Fri and then shifts east of the state on Sat as an upper trof moves onto the west coast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2020 VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light, less than 10 kts through Sunday afternoon. Smoke will likely move into the KCOS and KPUB terminals Sunday morning, and may reduce visibilities heading into Sunday afternoon. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
118 PM PDT Sat Oct 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through the first week of October, bringing warm afternoons, dry conditions, light winds, and chilly mornings. General hazy skies will last across the region with additional smoke likely returning Sunday. Cooler and wetter conditions are possible going into the second week of October. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonably hot temperatures will continue into the week ahead with a slow cooling trend starting by midweek. The very dry air mass will allow for excellent radiational cooling with overnight lows continuing to drop into the 40s for many valley locations, with 30s in the Sierra. We have even seen some cold pockets dropping into the 20s the past several nights, such as Bodie State Park and Boca Reservoir. Mainly areas of haze aloft from wildfire smoke today, but latest HRRR smoke simulations do bring denser surface smoke towards Mammoth and Quincy-Portola this evening from the Creek Fire and North Complex, respectively. As flow turns southwesterly Sunday, we are likely to see an increase in smoke and haze, however the question remains how much will be aloft vs surface. The obvious rationale is densest surface smoke will be in the vicinity of the Creek Fire and North Complex, but given just how much smoke is in California right now, any westerly wind will bring smoke back to the region. We continue to see signals in longer range models/ensembles for wet and cooler weather starting the weekend of Oct 10-11. Approximately 3 out of 4 ensemble members from the EPS/GEFS/CMC are showing signals of precipitation, with cooling temperatures. The exact liquid totals, however, vary greatly. This is likely due to what is currently Hurricane Marie, how this system may evolve, and whether remnant moisture will be entrained into upstream troughs. Marie`s moisture moving directly into the region is an outlying solution, with a 10% or less chance of occurring, but if it did, much higher liquid totals are possible. At this point here are the potential scenarios: 1) Most Likely. 70% probability. The region sees some form of rain, highest chances from approximately the Tahoe Basin north. Spillover also looks decent into western Nevada. Breezy winds, especially ahead of the system, but nothing too crazy. 2) Less Likely. 20% probability. The brunt of the moisture remains north into Oregon, light rain possible for areas in far northern CA/NV. Stronger winds possible, especially along the western Nevada Sierra Front. 3) Least Likely. 10% probability. We see the remnant moisture of Marie combine with the upstream troughs. Significant precipitation throughout the Sierra with decent rain totals possible into western Nevada as well. Less wind than the other scenarios, but some wind still possible. As of now the forecast is a blend of scenarios 1 and 2. In any of the scenarios, temps remain near to above average, so snow levels likely to remain high (8-10kft). This forecaster is keeping her fingers crossed for rain! Stay tuned...-Dawn && .AVIATION... Light winds and VFR conditions today. Smoke and haze continue to be the primary impact. Smoke projections still showing a return of smoke for areas downwind of the Creek Fire this afternoon, especially for KMMH. More smoke and haze is also possible into the Tahoe Basin and KSVE from the North Complex. Chances of VIS dropping to MVFR: * 70% for KMMH * 40% for KTVL/KTRK/KSVE * 20% for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV Smoke will persist into Sunday morning with smoke more likely to affect all terminals Sunday afternoon as the west to southwest winds aloft strengthen across the region. Haze is likely to continue into at least Wednesday, but the duration of denser smoke will depend on fire activity this week. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 ...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 The main forecasting concern for tonight will be low-level stratus and fog development along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau. As of 18z, a center of surface low pressure was observed over the Kansas City metro area with a surface cold front extending from western Missouri into central Oklahoma. Meanwhile, a broad warm sector encompassed extreme SE Kansas and SW Missouri which helped push afternoon temperatures near 70 degrees across areas that were able to clear out from earlier cloud cover. The surface low will meander across central Missouri through this evening as a 500-mb trough pivots across the Mid- Mississippi Valley. As it does, the cold front will push across the region. High resolution models continue to suggest additional scattered showers this evening near the front as it passes, but only a trace or a couple hundredths of additional rainfall is anticipated. Otherwise, low-level winds will veer to the northwest and skies will gradually clear behind the front. Some time in between midnight and the pre-dawn hours, an expansive area of low stratus or fog will develop along the Ozark Plateau. This will largely be induced by gentle upslope flow and lift across the northern side of the plateau, strong radiational cooling, and damp soils. Per the RAP analysis, visibility will reduce below one mile for the higher terrain areas along the plateau, while some of the SREF/HREF progs are less aggressive on reduced visibility but are equally keen on the extent of low stratus. Patchy drizzle seems like a safe bet heading into Sunday morning. Overnight temperatures will cool into the middle 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 For Sunday, mid-level heights will hastily increase as the 500-mb trough axis shifts east of the Ozarks. While there will be plenty of afternoon sunshine, temperatures will be on the cool side with a modified Canadian air mass filtering into the region. The NBM is suggesting afternoon highs in the lower 60s for Sunday. Frost headlines will be considered Sunday night for locations east of Highway 65, and especially for locations east of Highway 5. There, overnight lows will cool into the middle 30s beneath clear skies. A warming trend will begin Monday as winds veer southerly behind departing surface high pressure. It will also be breezy on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an incoming shortwave that will dig across the Corn Belt and drive a dry cold front through the region late Monday night. Daily temperatures will feature afternoon highs in the lower 70s with overnight lows around 50. No sensible weather is expected Tuesday - Saturday as a pronounced upper- level ridge settles in across the Four Corners Region and gradually builds into the Plains. Warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine can be expected during the middle-to-late parts of next week. NBM temperature probabilities are indicating daily temperatures in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the lower 50s during this stretch. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2020 A cold front will slowly work its way through the TAF sites this evening, with winds becoming more northwest but remaining less than 12 knots. VFR flight conditions will prevail through the evening hours, but after 06Z stratus and perhaps some drizzle will develop along the Ozarks Plateau. This should effect mainly the KJLN and KBBG sites with MVFR to locally IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. These lower flight conditions will improve by late morning Sunday with a return to VFR flight conditions. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albano LONG TERM...Albano AVIATION...Raberding