Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 10/01/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail at all three TAF sites
through 00Z Friday. Winds will be mainly northeast to east and
southeast 5 to 15 knots.
Schneider
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/
SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow Night...
Current mid-level satellite water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb
heights show an elongated ridge across the west and southwest CONUS.
An elongated trough moves off the east coast into the Atlantic,
while another low pressure spins north of the Great Lakes. Winds
aloft across the Panhandles remain northwesterly as they bring some
lofted wildfire smoke across the northern portions of the forecast
area due to fires in Wyoming. No precipitation is expected through
tomorrow tonight.
A cold front associated with the low near the Great Lakes is pushing
south across the forecast area this morning into the afternoon with
northeast surface winds following behind the front. Winds will
remain light for most of the area except the Oklahoma Panhandle and
far north northeastern Texas Panhandle where winds may become gusty
for a few hours late this afternoon into the evening. Sky conditions
will remain fairly clear today with ample warming of highs into the
80s and lower 90s before the cold air dives into the area later this
evening. The south southeast Texas Panhandle will keep about a 5-7
degree spread from the northern areas today, tonight and tomorrow.
Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s across the
northwest combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with the remainder
of the area in the lower 50s. Light northeast surface winds will
continue through Thursday with some high clouds possible through the
day. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler Thursday given
the cooler air mass brought through by the aforementioned cold front.
Rutt
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday Night...
The synoptic pattern stays fairly similar going into the weekend
with a high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS and fairly
broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. The Panhandles will
remain between the two systems with dry northwest flow aloft. A
lee surface trough on Friday will promote breezy southwest winds.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, and might be
warmer except high clouds as indicated by model soundings may
limit max insolation.
The latest medium and long range models do show a secondary wave
digging out of western Canada on Saturday which may clip our
northeast zones and also support another weak cold front. The
front will lead to highs mostly in the 70s over the weekend with
lows in the 40s to low 50s. Precipitation is not expected due to
the continued dry air in place both in the low levels and upper
levels.
A more progressive pattern is expected to commence going into
next week as the current high amplitude pattern breaks down.
Unfortunately most of the shortwave activity is progged to stay
north of our area at least through early week, with high pressure
and mostly neutral to positive height tendencies being the norm.
Thus, dry and warm conditions should continue.
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
11/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east across the area this
evening and into early tonight. Low pressure will move
southeast across the area Thursday, becoming nearly stationary
through Friday night. High pressure will then build across the
area through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM Update...
Radar trends show coverage of showers decreasing across the
area. Observations also show wind speeds have mostly decreased
from this afternoon`s strong winds.
Original Discussion...
Several embedded shortwaves and cold fronts will move across
the southern Great Lakes through Thursday. The first will move
across the area today, associated with an 850 mb speed max of
around 45 to 50 knots. The strongest wind will occur over the
several hours with an enhanced region of around 40 knots at the
925 mb level. Gusty wind pockets of 40 to 45 mph could occur
through the late afternoon hours, especially from I-71 and
westward. The best chance for any shower activity appears to be
confined to along the lakeshore and across Lake Erie through the
evening. Behind the front, colder air aloft will allow for some
light to moderate lake effect rain showers which will affect
mainly extreme NE OH and NW PA overnight.
By Thursday morning, a better push of cold air and low level
moisture arrive, associated with the second shortwave. This
feature will increase lake effect rain shower coverage and and
intensity across NE OH and NW PA throughout the day. A few
stronger lake effect showers could also produce a few rumbles of
thunder with lake effect instability building to 750 to 1000
J/kg. There is also a low chance of waterspouts through Thursday
with light to moderate convergence across the lake.
As high pressure begins to build across the Ohio Valley Thursday
night into Friday morning, winds will weaken aloft. This will create
a pressure variation between DTX/PBZ around 2 mb. Combined with
increasing low-level moisture and lake temp/850 mb temp difference
in the 15 to 20 C range will allow for another chance of waterspouts
early Friday morning across the lake. In addition, there could also
be some patchy frost across extreme NW OH Thursday night into early
Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Last piece of energy with a trough swinging across the lake on
Friday with lake effect showers gradually shifting up the lakeshore
into Friday night. Cant completely rule out a few lake effect
showers lingering into early Saturday morning across NW PA. Models
begin to diverge Saturday night with the timing of the next low
toward the region from the middle Mississippi River Valley.
Cooler through the short term with highs in the 50`s. Lows from the
mid 30`s to mid 40`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
More uncertain than normal in the long term with low pressure
approaching from the middle Mississippi River Valley. The strength
of this varies significantly between the models with the ECMWF
being the most consistent so far. In any event all models do
indicate a strong upper level trough that will swing through the
Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. For now will play the best
rain chances for this time period and adjust from there over the
next few days. Tuesday may be a dry day between storm systems as the
northern jet stream remains very active.
Minor warming trend expected in the long term. Highs on Sunday in
the 50`s should warm to the mid to upper 60`s by Wednesday. Lows
will also moderate with 40`s common. Coolest night of the long term
will be Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A cold front continues east across the area this evening and
into early tonight with shower activity focused around this cold
front. A line of showers are currently around KFDY extending all
the way to just west of KERI. Greatest impacts will be MVFR
visibility (with potentially a few minutes of IFR) and are
expected in the next few hours at KCLE and KERI. Behind this
cold front shower activity is quite apparent on radar,
especially across lower Michigan this evening. This activity
should mostly dissipate overnight, with minimal impacts at any
TAF sites. Lake effect/enhanced will then develop overnight
tonight, mainly impacting KERI with MVFR ceilings and scattered
showers.
Another potent cold front approaches from the north tomorrow,
providing with upper-level forcing producing scattered showers
Thursday afternoon. Due to the scattered nature, confidence is
low in location and timing of impacts, so did not include at
this time, except KERI where lake effect/enhancement increases
confidence there.
Strong wind gusts from earlier tonight have greatly diminished
and will continue to weaken to around 10 knots sustained winds
over the next couple of hours. Expect a 30-50 degree wind shift
from SW to W/WNW as the cold front moves east across the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with occasional lake effect rain
showers through Saturday, mainly across NE OH and NW PA. More
widespread non-VFR ceilings appear possible during the day on
Friday. Non-VFR also possible with showers on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds ahead of the cold front and westerly winds in the
wake of the front will hover near or just above gale criteria into
the evening. Best time period for the gales will be just ahead of
the front where HRRR is forecasting 45 knots at 925 mb from 23Z to
00Z then the cold advection in its wake will keep winds close to 34
knots through the evening across the central and eastern portion of
the lake. Westerly winds will then remain elevated into at least
Thursday afternoon so the small craft advisory will remain for the
central and eastern portions of the lake. Would not be surprised to
see this expanded over a longer period of time into Friday afternoon
from Willowick to Ripley. High pressure builds over the region on
Friday with lighter winds anticipated into Saturday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>149-
164>169.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142-
143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Saunders
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...MM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
723 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Breezy and colder conditions are expected the next couple of days.
A chance of showers as well as a few storms will persist this
afternoon with additional showers moving in later tonight into
Thursday night with the best chance closer to Lake Michigan.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Strong cold was passing through NW parts of the area with a
developing line of showers and even a few thunderstorms along it.
17Z HRRR captured this well and near term follows its lead.
Thunder threat may be more confined to our Michigan counties, but
thought it was worth throwing in further south. Gusty winds have
already been going with a 50 mph wind gust at KBEH as one of the
storms attained sufficient height to tap the higher wind fields.
Could be some more localized 35 to 40 mph gusts over the next
couple of hours with breezy conditions into this evening. In
addition to the thunder, some reports of small hail have been
reported. Won`t amount to much but something worth noting at
least.
Otherwise cold air will continue to pour in behind the front.
Precipitation across much of the area could wind down quickly
behind the front with only locations near/north of the toll road
seeing some lingering precip. This will change somewhat overnight
into Thursday as yet another strong vort max drops in, with a band
of rain showers dropping across mainly NW areas during the day
Thursday and settling in across far W/NW areas with lake effect
taking hold at that point by Thursday night into early Friday.
Previous grids had a handle on things with only change to increase
pops some across western LaPorte county where period of cat pops
appears warranted as band settles in.
Breezy conditions will also be felt across the area into Thursday
night. Lows in the far NE still on track to drop into the 30s with
frost potential existing if winds can decouple enough up there.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Series of additional spokes of energy will rotating around the
deep upper low over James Bay with each one possibly stirring up
a few showers with it. Best chance for precip looks to be with the
stronger wave depicted Sat night into Sun night with at least chc
pops warranted for now as trough deepens and cuts off over the
southern Great Lakes/N Ohio Valley through the weekend. Friday
night/Sat AM will pose the greatest concern at this point for
temps falling well into the 30s and patchy to areas of frost
showing up. Would not be surprised to need headlines for that
window but have a few days before needing to worry about that.
Otherwise slow moderation in temps will occur as upper level
heights relax some into mid week. However, active pattern shows
yet another trough to dig in towards the end of the week to bring
more unsettled weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
Stagnant upper low over the western Great Lakes with embedded
shortwaves will continue to bring off and on aviation concerns
through the 00z TAF cycle. Anticipate the ongoing gusty winds to
diminish as the sunsets and allow for VFR conditions with winds
less then 15kt to prevail for the majority of the overnight
hours. Tomorrow another shortwave will approach the terminals once
again. This will result in the return of shower chances and breezy
winds. Gust potential on Thursday will hover around the 25kt mark
given the lack of a strong LLJ as was seen today. Also as the
shortwave swings through over the course of the day, it will be
accompanied by scattered showers. KSBN has the greatest potential
to be impacted given it`s proximity to Lake Michigan and the
expected lake enhancement. Have held ceilings at 4k ft for this
issuance, but a brief drop to MVFR/IFR can`t be ruled out within
heavier showers.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ003.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...CM
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.Update...
Remnant convection lingers just along the coastline and the near
shore waters of Palm Beach, while a few showers are still shown
on radar across the Miami metro area. With the frontal boundary
stalling right over SoFlo, will keep inherited POPs/Wx grids, as
new Model blend is once again going below ongoing trends, which
are better align with HURR/global models.
Best chances for rain and/or isolated storms remain over the
Atlantic metro areas and the southern-most portion of the state.
And with the front being shown as basically lingering over us
during the next day or so, expect more showers on Thursday and
likely on Friday.
&&
.Aviation...
Periods of MVFR are still possible for the rest of tonight across
the Atlantic terminals, but most significant convection is now
moving over the coastal waters. Winds will remain mostly NE
through around 14Z, then ENE for Thursday afternoon. Another round
of showers/TS also expected after 14Z with a lingering frontal
boundary across the area.
&&
.Prev Discussion... /issued 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020/
Short Term (Now through Thursday)...
A stalled frontal boundary is currently over the region and should
remain overhead through the short term period. Visible satellite
imagery shows this feature well with more sunshine occurring to the
south and east (upstream) of the cold front with more low level
cloudiness. A line of showers has developed early this afternoon in
response to the front. At this juncture it would appear the best
potential for rainfall through the afternoon and early evening hours
will be across the Atlantic metro...basically Homestead to Boca
Raton and east. CAMs also shows this scenario with HRRR coming in
just a bit more robust with precip/T`storm chances that prior runs.
Although the front is not forecast to move much, if convection
slightly behind the front develops, mesoscale boundaries (outflow)
may move the front a bit more downstream with time.
Showers and storms will weaken overnight except for the immediate
coast. Otherwise, generally northerly or northeasterly winds can be
expected. The boundary will remain in place through Thursday and in
fact Thursday looks fairly similar to today. Models are picking up
on a bit better QPF signal across the interior portions of the state
and Atlantic coast. Again, there will be at least a limited hydro
concern across the metro. In fact, WPC has delineated a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall for the region on Thursday and with PWATs
in the 2.2"-2.4" range, can`t argue with that assessment.
Temperatures will range from around 90s across the southern areas to
middle and upper 80s during the afternoon up around the Lake
Okeechobee region.
Long Term...
Friday through Sunday...
Wet and unsettled weather will continue through the extended
period as broad mid-upper level troughing encompasses the eastern
half of the CONUS. At the surface, the quasi-stationary boundary
draped across the region will ever-so-slowly inch northward
through the weekend, keeping South Florida under the influence of
northeasterly flow in the lower levels and south/southwesterly
flow aloft. Therefore, sufficient tropical moisture will remain
through the atmospheric column, in fact, model derived PWATs
values remain in the 2.1 to 2.4 inches range over the region,
translating to a potential flood risk. Current experimental PQPF
indicate rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible across
South Florida, with higher accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
potentially over the eastern metro areas. Thus, the main concerns
are currently for the east coast, where several days of antecedent
rainfall could accumulate over flood prone areas.
While highly uncertain at this time, additional moisture could
work it`s way into the area from a tropical low that currently has
a 10 percent chance of development in the next 2 days and a 60
percent chance of development in the next 5 days from the National
Hurricane Center. Current model iterations depict the
aforementioned low moving west-northwest into the Yucatan
Peninsula this weekend. However, if the low keeps more eastward
into the Yucatan Channel and NW Caribbean Sea, then additional
tropical moisture could become lofted into South Florida, leading
to greater coverage of rainfall across the region.
Monday through Wednesday...
Regardless of the outcome of the low that NHC is currently
monitoring, the overall synoptic pattern will remain favorable for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue each day across
South Florida next week. Although, the lows evolution will
certainly be something we will continue to monitor with each model
run and as we get closer in time. Greatest coverage of convection
next week will be focused over the interior and west coast of
South Florida with flow returning out of the east.
Marine...
A cold front across the region will continue to bring northerly or
northeasterly winds through the remainder of the workweek before a
more easterly transition takes shape this weekend. Outside of the
potential for scattered showers and storms, wind and seas should
remain somewhat favorable through Friday. On Saturday pressure
gradient begins to increase, especially over the Gulf waters as a
surface low develops across the western Caribbean.
Aviation (18z Aviation)...
Despite the close proximity to a cold frontal boundary, mostly
MVFR/VFR conditions expected this cycle. Some isolated to scattered
showers or T`storms may develop, especially today through early
evening. Brief VIS/CIG reductions may be possible with storms or
perhaps with low stratus just behind the front late tonight.
Otherwise, expect light northerly winds through the cycle.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach 75 87 74 85 / 40 70 50 60
Fort Lauderdale 77 89 76 86 / 40 70 50 70
Miami 77 89 76 86 / 40 70 50 70
Naples 72 87 73 84 / 20 50 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
721 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 426 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2020
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an amplified pattern with a
ridge over western North America and a broad trough over the east.
The mid level low center remained near James Bay resulting in
cyclonic wnw flow through the northern Great Lakes. A weak shortwave
trough supported sct/nmrs rain showers over the east half of Upper
Michigan while another shrtwv was bringing additional rain to
northeast MN and northwest WI. 850 mb temps around 2C with low level
cyclonic flow and deep moisture also provided enough instability for
lake enhanced rain.
Tonight, expect much of the upstream batch of showers to slide to
the west and south of the area, per radar/satellite trends. A cold
front and associated shrtwv will veer winds to the north and bring
in even colder air with 850 mb temps down to around -3C. The cold
air and deep moisture with 700 mb temps to around -10C will bring an
increase in shower/coverage intensity overnight for north wind
favored locations.
Thursday, lake effect rain showers will continue as 850 mb temps
drop to around -6C. Even though mid level drying (above 750 mb) will
move in, lake-induced CAPE values of around 300-400 J/Kg should
still keep at least sct showers going that should become more
cellular with daytime heating over the land. Models suggest that
Lake Nipigon connected band may develop in the morning that may
shift through portions of west and north central Upper Michigan.
Highs should only climb into the low to mid 40s north and the upper
40s to near 50 south.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2020
Mid to upper level troughing will continue over the Upper Great
Lakes through the upcoming weekend with cooler temperatures and
periods of mostly lake-effect rain showers, maybe even our first
light dusting of snow of the season Thu night/early Fri. Beginning
next week, the pattern gradually becomes more zonal with drier
conditions and temps warming thanks to some ridging that will move
across Upper Michigan. Another shortwave with an associated cold
front looks to move through by this time next week with shower
chances and cooler temps returning.
Starting off with Thursday night, this still looks to be on track
with potential for some inland areas to see their first light
dusting of snow this season. 850mb temps will be between -5C and -7C
which supports some snowflakes or graupel, especially across the
higher terrain of the interior west. Latest soundings indicate
lowering of the subsidence inversion around 7-8 kft but with weakly
cyclonic northerly flow in the low-levels and increasing low-level
convergence and moisture, this should scattered lake effect showers
to continue into Friday and have made changes to PoPs to reflect
that since. Winds will diminish through Friday, allowing what lake-
effect precip ongoing to end by the afternoon/evening. Steep low
level lapse rates due to fairly cold 850mb temps still across the
area could also support isolated diurnal instability showers
Saturday so have decided to keep some slight PoPs in the forecast.
Models indicate another shortwave will approach Upper Michigan looks
to be now sometime early Sunday. The exact track of the shortwave is
yet to be determined. Latest guidance continues to show the better
support and dynamics south of the cwa across Wisconsin. It is still
possible that some rain showers could affect the far southern UP and
along Lake Michigan. However, 850mb temps of around -2C could still
support lake enhanced showers, over the east, off the Great Lakes
with e-ne flow developing.
Heights rise a bit on Monday and Tuesday with flow becoming more
zonal thanks to a period of brief ridging. 850mb temps moderate back
to 3-7C by late Mon into Tue. GFS is running warmer with closer to
9C but either way, expect highs to climb back into the 50s on Mon
and maybe even lower 60s on Tue before troughing returns with nw
flow and temperatures starting to cool a bit.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 721 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2020
VFR conditions look to continue for the next couple of hours for
each TAF site. As the number of n and nw wind belt lake effect shras
increase, cigs will drop back down into MVFR tonight. MVFR
conditions look to continue into the daytime tomorrow morning as
shras persist. There may be some VFR conditions at each TAF site at
the end of the period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 426 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2020
Broad troffing will continue over Lake Superior through Thursday,
with a cold front moving over the lake tonight. Look for winds to
increase from the NW up to around 30 knots tonight, before relaxing
below 20 knots by Friday as sfc high pressure moves in from the
west. This high pressure persists through the weekend. Some models
are suggesting a low pressure system to pass to the SE of Lake
Superior on Sunday, which may bring an increase in winds from the NE
to N to around 30 knots. Confidence in this remains low, so forecast
for now is to around 20 knots.
As anomalously cool air moves over Lake Superior tonight into
tomorrow morning, it brings with it a slight chance of waterspouts
thanks to lake-induced instability. These chances will begin to
decrease tonight as warmer air aloft begins to cap this instability.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
950 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020
.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
All remains quiet this evening, although bndry lyr winds remain
out of the SSW which has helped to keep temps some 3-7+ degrees
warmer than what was observed 24 hrs ago. However, the evening
water vapor imagery depicts a longwave trough digging SE through
the Plains into the Midwest, which has reinforced a cold front S
into Srn and Ern OK into NW and extreme Nrn AR into Wrn KY. This
front remains progged to continue shifting S into the region into
extreme SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR late this evening, before
easing to near or S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA by daybreak
Thursday. However, minimal cool/dry advection will follow the
front initially, before the drier air is more noticeably felt
well in wake of the fropa by late morning through the afternoon
once the front exits the region to the S by midday. If anything,
just enough wind with the fropa should keep the air mixed enough
such that min temps tonight will be a bit milder than what was
observed this morning. However, did lower min temps 1-3 degrees
across much of the area tonight given the MOS consensus, and the
fact that the more rural and protected areas should see a bit more
radiational cooling than the more urbanized and higher elevated
areas.
The late afternoon visible satellite imagery did indicate an area
of elevated smoke from the Srn WY/Nrn CO wildfires which
translated into NE NM/the TX Panhandle/Srn OK into Wrn and Cntrl
AR. However, this smoke has yet to mix down to the sfc affecting
vsbys, with the HRRR suggesting that additional elevated smoke
will spread SE into SE OK/extreme NE TX/SW AR by/just prior to
daybreak Thursday, but should not be dense enough to offset the
cooling over these areas. However, this model does suggest that
the sky will be a bit hazy Thursday over much of the region as it
continues spreading SE, but not enough to offset the sky
conditions much. Thus, the remainder of the forecast looks on
track.
Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 01/00Z TAF period, as
mostly SKC will prevail. The late afternoon satellite imagery
indicates an elevated smoke shield emanating within the NW flow
aloft from wildfires over far Srn WY/Nrn CO, which is translating
ESE from SE CO/NE NM across the TX Panhandle across the Red River
Valley of Srn Ok into Wrn and Cntrl AR, but sfc observations
indicate that this smoke is quite elevated and will not affect
vsbys at the sfc this evening/overnight. However, the elevated
smoke shield is expected to thicken somewhat just prior to
daybreak over SE OK/SW AR/extreme NE TX before eventually
affecting portions of N LA, but again should remain elevated and
not affecting conditions at the sfc. May see some thin cirrus and
increasing areas of AC spill SE across Ern OK into Wrn and Srn AR
by the end of the 00Z TAF period, but should most remain mostly N
of the SW AR terminals through sunset before settling farther SSE
into extreme NE TX/Srn AR/N LA Thursday evening. Lt/Vrb or Lt SSW
winds tonight will become ENE 7-12kts by 14Z with the passage of a
cold front that move through NE TX/N LA through mid-morning,
before exiting the region by midday. Winds will become more NNE
areawide by 18Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 57 81 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 81 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 54 77 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 57 76 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 78 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 82 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 57 82 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 85 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15