Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/26/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Summer-like conditions will be on tap across central Illinois on
Saturday as afternoon high temperatures soar into the middle 80s.
The next chance for rain will arrive Sunday evening through Monday
as a strong cold front passes through the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Except for a few clouds in the southeast and the high cirrus
moving into the area, skies are clear across the CWA. With
dewpoints ranging from 58 to 63, current overnight low forecast
of around 60 continues to look reasonable. Remainder of the
forecast looks fine as well, so no need for an update at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Lingering cloud cover from Shelbyville/Mattoon southward will
dissipate before sunset, with clear skies expected across the
board this evening. Several short-term models such as the HRRR
suggest low clouds will re-develop within the WAA regime late
tonight into Saturday morning...particularly along/southeast of a
Danville to Shelbyville line. Given the fact that nocturnal cloud
cover failed to completely clear across the SE KILX CWA today,
think re-development tonight seems plausible. As a result, have
gone with partly to mostly cloudy skies along/south of I-70 from
shortly before dawn through mid-morning Saturday. Elsewhere,
mostly clear skies will be the rule. As the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front, southerly winds will
increase during the day Saturday. Forecast soundings and numeric
guidance both indicate gusts of 25-30mph, with the strongest winds
focused along/west of I-55. Given the strong southern flow and
ample sunshine, afternoon highs will rise well into the 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
The cold front will settle into central Illinois on Sunday:
however, the airmass will initially be quite dry, so precip will
be slow to materialize. As the profile gradually moistens, a few
showers may occur during the afternoon. The best rain chances will
hold off until Sunday evening when a band of frontogenetic forcing
develops along/behind the surface front. All models show showers
becoming more widespread, resulting in high chance to likely PoPs
across all but the far E/SE CWA. As the front shifts further east
and a surface low tracks northward along the boundary, showers
will continue into Monday as well. The latest NAM/GFS show little
to no elevated instability, so have decided to drop any mention of
thunder. Rainfall totals with this system will generally range
from one half to three quarters of an inch.
Once the front exits, showers will taper off and come to an end by
Monday night, followed by cooler conditions with highs only in the
60s for Monday/Tuesday. After a brief warm-up on Wednesday, a
reinforcing surge of cool, Canadian air will drop highs into the
upper 50s and lower 60s by Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Looks
like more smoke, from fires in WY and CO, is moving this way, so
have included SCT250 for the entire TAF period. Winds will be
southerly through the period with wind speeds less than 10kts
tonight, then increasing tomorrow morning with gusts around 20kts
in the morning, but increasing to around 25-27kts during the
afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
740 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Expect warm conditions to continue through the weekend with highs
in the lower to middle 80s. It will turn markedly colder early
next week, along with periodic rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Low level moisture held south along the Ohio River Valley with
ridging from western Pennsylvania through Indiana to Arkansas. High
will move east into Appalachia overnight with low level flow quickly
veering. Some concern that mixed low level moisture advecting
northward to form stratus deck near/shortly after daybreak over CWA.
While that is within the realm of possibilities, HRRR and observed
expanse of dry, subsident air in place/lower 50s dewpoints in CWA,
timing of veering could maintain this moist pool south of CWA
through mid morning. Thermal moderation continues with highs into
the lower/middle 80s next two days.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Attention remains on digging northern stream flow pattern early
next week. Discount of EC per outlier solution digging strong
cutoff from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley
versus developing less intense Upper Great Lakes circulation, as
per NAM/GFS. EC outlier for past few runs and continued lack of
support seen in GFS/GEFS members. That said, overall trend of
later arrival of moisture/slower evolution of and
anafrontal/successive waves with pops now relegated to late Sunday
afternoon far northwest. Thereafter, have followed blend, concur
with highest pops Monday afternoon into Tuesday as system deepens
over Lake Huron into Ontario. A few degrees below blend for highs
Tue through Thu with nod to consistency, anticipated thick cloud
cover/showers. Expect Monday through Wednesday beach hazards with
potential for low end gales/minor beach erosion.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Predominantly a VFR condition are expected at the terminals through
the period, with the exception of potential for IFR conditions
late tonight into tomorrow morning as low level moisture is
advected into the region. Gusty south-southwest winds will pick
up and mix conditions out by late afternoon. Model guidance is
varying quite a bit as to how low ceilings will get, ranging from
continuing VFR to around 600-1500 ft. Kept previous forecast of
600 feet for now, can see how things evolve upstream before
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...MCD
Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx
Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2020
Split flow pattern continues across the CONUS with numerous short
waves embedded in the northern stream flow. The important one for
our forecast is one over Minnesota in the SPC mesoanalysis. dCVA out
ahead of it, plus fgen in the 850-700 mb layer and about 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE out ahead of the front has allowed a few thunderstorms to
pulse up in northern Minnesota per radar and satellite. Closer to
home, satellite shows lingering stratus continuing to mix out into a
scattered cloud deck. Insolation in between the clouds has allowed
temps to rise into the low 70s over much of the U.P. with dew points
in the low to mid 60s, except 59 at Houghton. Those dew points are
right in line with where the NAM, RAP, and RGEM have them, so for
once the models aren`t actually running too high on low-level
moisture. Mesoanalysis shows 500 J/kg MLCAPE nudging into Gogebic
County which is also right on schedule or perhaps even slightly
ahead of schedule relative to model progs of instability.
For the severe weather threat this evening, still haven`t seen much
change today from the thinking this morning. Still expecting MLCAPE
to increase across the west half through this evening to around 1000-
1500 J/kg and a 30+ kt LLJ at 00z strengthening to 40+ kt by 03z
leading to 0-3 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 or more and 0-6 km bulk shear
vectors of 40-50 kts or more. The surface front is oriented NNE to
SSW, so WSW shear vectors are nearly perpendicular, although things
get a little less clear over the Keweenaw where the effective front
becomes more zonally oriented thanks to the marine layer to the
north. So there could be some training of cells and upscale growth
into a QLCS up there, but elsewhere supercells look possible. The
only question now is far south convection develops, given there is
still a cap in place. The HRRR has been very consistent throughout
the day in developing cells over the Bayfield Peninsula around 22-
23z and then driving them northeastward along the western shoreline
and onshore north of Ontonagon. That`s pretty much exactly what the
POPs reflect from this morning, so made only minor tweaks to the
POPs, thunder, and severe potential grids this afternoon. Still
think the main time frame to watch will be 00-04z this evening. The
modeled combination of bulk shear, low-level shear/helicity, MLCAPE,
and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km should support all severe
hazards with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two all
possible. Flash flooding looks unlikely given fast storm motions and
storm motion vectors not parallel to the boundary, although if there
was to be any it would be over the Copper Country given the
aforementioned orientation of the boundary locally.
Once storms lift off to the northeast, the wind veers around to
westerly behind the front. High dew points and heavy rain falling
over Lake Superior will likely generate areas of fog that will then
be advected onshore into the western U.P. Models are all pretty
aggressive with low-level saturation, especially over the Copper
Country, which makes sense. The SW flow becomes downslope over the
central U.P. so not expecting any fog there. This low-level moisture
and lingering cloud cover will keep temps up near 60 through the
night, making it feel a lot more like July than late September.
Tomorrow, with the front sagging south into Wisconsin, it`s looking
dry to start the day, although high cloud cover will persist
throughout the day. But by late afternoon, another mid-level short
wave will be approaching from the west embedded within the cyclonic
flow around a strong wave setting up in the Canadian Prairies. Mid-
level theta-e advection and moisture convergence will increase in a
west-east band on the nose of another 35-45 kt LLJ by about 21z,
although model soundings show a dry layer below that so it may take
a little time to saturate the column and generate showers. Right
now, think thunderstorms will hold off until just after 00z, so will
let the thunderstorm chance be discussed in the long-term AFD.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 439 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2020
Main story in the long term is the trend toward increasingly colder
conditions next week. Broad troffing currently from the N Pacific to
western Canada features 2 anomaly centers, one near the Aleutians
and the other roughly along the western coast of Canada. The latter
will dive into the central U.S. this weekend as ridging builds into
western Canada downstream of the former anomaly. Then during next
week, the western ridge will become sharply amplified, building
northward to the Arctic, forcing the central U.S. trof to become
established over eastern N America with axis from eastern Hudson
Bay/nw Quebec s thru the Great Lakes region. For Upper MI, this
obviously spells a trend to colder weather with time next week.
Temps will still be above normal thru the weekend, fall somewhat blo
normal early next week, then drop to solidly blo normal by the end
of the week. Per CFSv2, this cold pattern should not be persistent
as it has been consistently indicating above normal temps overall
for the month of Oct. As for pcpn, in advance of the developing trof
into the central U.S., a shortwave will move across the northern
Great Lakes Sat night, bringing shra/some tsra. Then, expect
periodic shra next week as mid-level trof evolves eastward to the
Great Lakes. By midweek and certainly by late week, there will be a
lake component to the shra as air mass becomes increasingly colder.
Will probably see the first graupel showers or snow flakes of the
season late week as well. Overall, the weather next week will be
unsettled. Won`t be showery all the time, but there also won`t be
any extended dry time.
Beginning Sat night, shortwave will track from the Dakotas and MN to
Lake Superior. There may end up being 2 streaks of heavier pcpn from
this wave, one closer to the vort max track, across Lake Superior
and nw Upper MI under better dynamics/more favorable upper
diffluence with the associated jet streak, and the second (favored
by the CAMs) focused vcnty of the remnant of the boundary that
settles over or just se of the fcst area tonight. Increasing low-
level jet/theta-e advection supports the convective development
there. There is still some uncertainty in where the axes of the 2
pcpn areas will be located. For now, fcst will generally reflect a
sw-ne zone of lower pops roughly across the central fcst area, btwn
streaks of higher pops/heavier qpf across the nw and se fcst area.
Storms should be elevated, and with MUCAPE in the 1-3km layer up to
1000j/kg and with effective shear likely to be in excess of 40kt,
there will be organized storms and a svr risk, mainly hail. With
precipitable water near 200pct of normal, hvy rainfall will also be
possible.
A dry day should follow on Sun. However, upper diffluence associated
with right entrance of sw-ne oriented 130kt upper jet streak across
Lake Superior will support some shra to the s and e, but they may
still just brush the far se and eastern fcst area. Sun will be the
last mild day with highs mostly in the mid/upper 60s.
Deepening mid-level trof will then evolve eastward to the Great
Lakes region during the week. Whether a wrapped up fall storm
emerges from this trof to impact Upper MI remains to be seen, but
bulk of recent guidance over the last day or 2 suggests any deep low
pres that might develop would likely be far enough e and ne of the
fcst area so that no significant affects would occur here.
Otherwise, a series of shortwaves dropping into the trof, cyclonic
flow and increasingly colder air with time will lead to frequent
episodes of shra thru the week. These shra will also become lake
aided with time as air mass becomes colder. By the end of the week,
GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble mean 850mb temps of -3 to -6C (GFS coldest),
would support some potential of the first graupel showers or snow
flakes. By late week, high temps will only be in the mid 40s to
lwr 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2020
A cold front continues to move toward Upper michigan this evening,
triggering showers and thunderstorms over western Lake Superior.
This activity will spread east into the KIWD and KCMX areas early on
in the forecast period, with resulting reductions in ceilings and
visibilities. There is a potential for low-end IFR conditions at
both sites, but the higher probability remains at KCMX and have
brought in IFR with the convection this evening. Both sites will see
IFR ceilings/visibilities overnight as stratus/fog develops behind
the front. Expect periods of LIFR at KCMX thanks in good part to
developing upslope flow there. KSAW is more problematic as more
mid/upper-level energy rides up to the north, but enough in the area
to warrant VCTS and then VCSH there. KSAW will also see IFR ceilings
and a little fog late overnight. Have kept mention of LLWS at KSAW
this forecast, thanks to expected development of LLJ this evening.
Things improve as drier air works into the region in the latter part
of the forecast with VFR conditions returning to KIWD and KCMX
during the early daylight hours, and a little later in the day at
KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2020
A cold front approaching from the west and low level jet out ahead
of it will lead to breezy south winds tonight on the east half of
the lake. There could be a brief window around 9 pm to midnight
where the elevated platforms gust to gale force, but it will be
short-lived. There will likely be thunderstorms with the cold front
moving west to east across the lake this evening, and they could be
strong with hail and gusty winds. Behind the front, rain falling
over the lake plus high dew points will likely generate areas of
dense fog, especially over the west half. That fog will mix out
somewhat tomorrow but patches of it will continue to drift around
the lake through the day with lighter southerly winds. Sat night, a
fast moving developing/strengthening low pres will lift ne across
Lake Superior or Upper MI. Since there is uncertainty on the track,
wind response is also uncertain. If the low tracks across western
Lake Superior, winds will ramp up with gusts probably to 25-30kt
later Sat night into Sun as is currently in the fcst. Could even be
be a brief period of gales. If the low tracks farther s, winds will
end up lighter. Colder air will flow into the Great Lakes region
during next week. With unstable conditions developing over the lake,
winds will likely be into the 15-25kt range at times thru at least
the first half of the week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJC/Rolfson
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Current temperatures are generally in the 80s with 90 popping up
in a few select locations. A swath of wildfire smoke is draped
over the I-80 area now. The HRRR suggests the bulk of it at 4-7km,
though discerning noses may catch a whiff here at the surface. It
may lead to falling shy of forecast maxes.
Zonal flow over the northern plains will drag weak boundaries over
the area over the next few days, producing occasionally
flip-flopping wind fields. A dramatic pattern change brings a
round of fall weather next week.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
A weak cold front is sweeping in from the northwest. Surface
analysis shows it between Tekamah and Omaha with a lack of wind
suggesting its presence near Fremont. As the front continues
southeast this evening, it`s washing out with most of the CAA
remaining in eastern South Dakota. Southerly winds redevelop by
sunrise Saturday morning in response to another approaching
shortwave. Model guidance suggests similar max Ts across the CWA
but with a reduction in overhead wildfire smoke, we may see more
locations manage 92F, with records (mid- 90s) possibly met or
tied.
SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK...
Broad cyclonic flow develops over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS
behind a significant September cold front. Guidance remains hazy
as to when the front will pass on Sunday and temperatures will
hinge on that timing. Have opted to stick with NBM`s Sunday
afternoon / evening passage time. This allows highs to peak near
70, but there`s plenty of wiggle room in the models. Sunday
evening will be breezy with gusts of 30mph plus. Scattered POPs
still reasonable along the front... am not expecting thunder. QPF
of under half an inch doesn`t excite.
Isolated showers are possible but improbable in the disturbed
cyclonic flow, but chances better south and east and I`ve kept
forecast dry for next week. Expect winds to be breezy each
afternoon.
Have mentioned chance of frost/freeze by week`s end.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will
generally become light and variable this evening before turning to
the south tonight. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will be possible by
Saturday afternoon, as winds continue to veer to the WNW. Speeds
are expected to diminish near the end of the TAF period, around
00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
846 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020
No major changes this evening as fcst, including Red Flag
Warning/Wind Advisory tomorrow, remains on track. Did make some
minor adjustments to winds tomorrow, nudging highest winds and
gusts down for much of w cntrl SD. Dense mid-upper cloud cover
may limit mixing somewhat, especially over the srn half of the
area, and most guidance suggests that BL winds of 30+ kt will
largely be north of a KGCC-KD07 line. Strongest winds/gusts
across w cntrl SD will likely occur late AM/early PM with front
and associated pressure rises, while strongest winds elsewhere
will likely be in the early-mid aftn as mixing allows for maximum
momentum transfer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020
Water vapor shows broad trof over the northwest/north central
CONUS. At the surface, high is centered over the Black Hills with
deepening lee trof along the northern Rocky Mountain Front. A
pleasant early afternoon across the area with temps generally in
the 70s and some high clouds streaming overhead.
Cold front will move into the region late tonight as upper low
takes shape over southern SASK. Could be a couple -shra late
tonight and early Saturday with fropa, but little moisture to work
with. Trof deepens over the Northern Plains on Saturday, with
deep mixing by afternoon tapping into the 35-45kts of 800-700mb
layer winds. GFS as well as several higher res models including
the ARW and HRRR mixing very dry air to the surface, with minimum
RH near or possibly below 20%. Given the very dry fuels and lack
of recent precip, will issue a Red Flag Warning for the plains
locations of far northeast WY and northwest/west central SD. Will
also hoist a wind advisory for the usual windy areas of northwest
and west central SD.
Secondary upper trof rotates through on Sunday, with another round
of strong winds into advisory and possibly warning range. A bit
more moisture to work with, so a better chance for -shra along
with some higher elevation snow. Given the expected cooler temps
and higher relative humidity, Red Flag conditions will be less
likely.
Deep upper trof sets up over the eastern CONUS for much of next week
with upper ridge along the west coast. Periodic dry cold fronts
with gusty northwest winds will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions. Temps will be near to slightly below average.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 523 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020
VFR conds will continue through the period. Breezy NW winds will
develop behind a front late tomorrow morning through the aftn
across much of the area, with strongest winds and gusts across
the wrn/nwrn SD plains. A few SHRA cannot be ruled out tomorrow
AM/aftn over nern WY/nwrn SD/the nrn Black Hills behind the front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Sep 25 2020
A cold front will move through late tonight, with strong
northwest winds developing on Saturday. Given the very dry air in
place, Red Flag conditions are expected to develop across the
plains of far northeast WY and northwest through west-central SD.
Any fire starts on the plains, especially in the Red Flag Warning
area, will have the potential to spread very rapidly due to the
dry fuels/drought and strong winds.
Another round of very strong northwest winds are expected Sunday,
but temps should be cooler and relative humidity slightly higher.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected, but Red Flag
conditions are not looking likely at this time.
Periodic dry cold fronts with gusty northwest winds will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions for most of next week. Temps
will be near to slightly below average.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for SDZ323-324-
327>331.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for SDZ001-002-
012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ314-316.
&&
$$
Update...Sherburn
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Sherburn
FIRE WEATHER...Johnson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1252 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue the next couple
of days before a cold front drops into the region Monday bringing
a round of northerly winds and a day of near normal temperatures.
High pressure will quickly rebuild next week with temperatures
rebounding several degrees above normal Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through next Friday.
Conditions so far this afternoon have closely mirrored Thursday
afternoon, with thick smoke again plaguing the Owens Valley and
breezy southwest winds picking up across Northwest Arizona.
Southwesterly breezes will increase to encompass much of southern
Nevada and Northwest Arizona by late this afternoon, though will
remain below wind advisory or red flag thresholds. Meanwhile, the
HRRR suggests some slight improvement in surface visibility
across the Owens Valley, though given a modest capping inversion
near the ridgetop level and general persistence of thick smoke,
I`m skeptical of any substancial improvement.
Similar conditions are in store for Saturday and most of Sunday
before some changes creep in from the north. Winds will shift
around to the north as early as Sunday morning with a push of
stronger winds arriving Sunday evening as the gradient across the
Intermountain West tightens as a trough digs into the High
Plains. Gusty winds will overspread much of Southern Nevada and
lower Colorado River Valley with gusts of 30-40 mph possible
overnight. Winds will gradually decrease Monday afternoon but the
combination of wind, dry air, and dry fuels may prompt some
enhanced fire danger concerns. In addition, cold advection behind
the cold front will suppress high temperatures Monday to near
late September normals.
The respite from the heat will be brief however as an expansive
and high amplitude ridge rebuilds across the Western US. High
temperatures will climb back several degrees above normal Tuesday
through Friday, with dry conditions persisting.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will move into the region on Sunday
evening with northerly winds quickly filling in behind it. Dry
fuels, marginal RH recoveries, and wind gusts to near 35 mph will
be possible especially across Southern Nevada and the lower
Colorado River Valley. RH will decrease further on Monday
afternoon as wind speeds gradually relax. A Red Flag issuance may
become necessary as early as tomorrow for the late Sunday-Monday
time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light easterly winds will become south-
southwesterly this afternoon, with confidence increasing of the
switch around 21Z. Gusts should remain generally between 12 and 18
kts, but an isolated gust to 20 kts is not out of the question.
Gusts will become less likely after sunset, but winds will remain
elevated around 10 kts through much of the overnight period before
becoming light and variable during the early morning hours. A
similar set up expected Saturday, with lesser confidence in timing
and speed of the southerly wind push. Reduced visibility possible
through the TAF period, with lingering wildfire smoke.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon
with occasional gusts to 20 kts expected, before dying off after
sunset. Winds will trend more southerly along the Colorado River
Valley and westerly at KDAG. Similar conditions expected Saturday.
Reduced visibility possible through the TAF period due to
lingering wildfire smoke, particularly in the Owens Valley.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Varian
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter