Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/19/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
620 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
No major changes are planned to the current forecast this
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Forecast challenges surround fire weather and temperatures through a
smoke layer.
Currently, beneath a sunny sky, temperatures are warming through the
60s and 70s on south-southeasterly breezes.
Dry weather conditions are forecast for most of the next 36 hours
over this CWA. The beginnings of some slight chance pops show up
across the far western CWA late Saturday night when steep mid-level
lapse rates and approaching shortwave energy combine. There is some
decent low level WAA occurring later tonight through Saturday night,
as well. Not sure how much that will be offset during daytime
heating hours on Saturday when the next surge of smoke plume aloft
(per the latest HRRR) is over the CWA.
Breezy southeasterly boundary layer winds on Saturday should help to
keep low level moisture from disappearing during peak
heating/mixing on Saturday. The lone exception might be down across
Stanley, Jones and Lyman counties in the afternoon where RAP model
low level RH progs along and south of an establishing Lee-of-the-
Black-Hills surface trof could tank to around 20 percent, especially
if any amount of westerly component can be introduced into the
boundary layer mixing wind Saturday afternoon/evening.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
The long term portion of the forecast will feature above normal
temperatures with below normal precipitation. Fire weather will be a
concern at times through the long term.
The period begins on Sunday with an area of low pressure and upper
level trough crossing the region. There may be enough instability
and forcing associated with the frontal boundary for isolated
thunderstorms on Sunday. While severe storms are not expected,
inverted V-sounding, along with over 1,000 J/kg of DCAPE does
support the potential of gusty winds with the thunderstorms. Another
low pressure system will track across the region midweek, bringing
a round of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Upper level ridging will build over the Northern Plain Thursday
afternoon through Friday. The ridge, along with a surface low
pressure system approaching the region from the west will bring
gusty southwesterly winds and much above normal temperatures on
Friday. Based on the GEFS mean, high on Friday could be a few
degrees warmer. Near record highs could be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
935 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
So far visibilities holding steady this evening, a few spots down
to 6 to 8 miles but otherwise nothing substantially low.
A batch of stratus has developed in the southern James. Current
sky cover grids cover this well. No changes needed with this
update.
UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Widespread surface pressure falls this evening continued with
warm southerly flow at the surface. Satellite imagery shows smoke
filled skies aloft, mostly focused in the west through south-
central. While surface visibility has been unaffected this
afternoon, Beach AWOS visibility has recently dipped to 7 miles.
Uncertainty remains in visibility trends over the next 3-6 hours
with HRRR near-surface smoke fields clearing smoke a bit (possibly
with the nocturnal surface inversion developing) while integrated
smoke fields continue to push smoke aloft into our area. We`ll
refrain from making any adjustments for now given uncertainty in
how the inversion impacts near-surface smoke potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
An upper level ridge axis is currently located over central
Montana, keeping all of western and central North Dakota in
northwest flow aloft. This will keep the thickest smoke out of all
areas except the far southwest through the rest of today and
tonight. Expect hazy skies to continue through tonight with lows
generally in the 40s.
The ridge axis will reach the North Dakota border by around 12z
Saturday and central North Dakota by around 21z. As the axis
nudges closer, smoke aloft from western United States wildfires
will once again increase through the day Saturday from west to
east as the upper level flow turns more westerly and then
southwesterly ahead of a potent negatively tilted trough. Most of
the smoke should remain aloft, but may make its way down to the
surface across the far west. Because of the smoke aloft, high
temperatures will likely be lower than most guidance so we did
adjust those values down a fair amount. Highs will range from the
lower 70s east to the mid and upper 70s central and west.
As a cold front approaches from Montana, breezy southeasterly
winds will increase through the day with the strongest winds west
and south. Sustained winds up to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
will be possible in these areas. With the front and best upper
level forcing remaining in Montana through the day, expect dry
weather through the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
The aforementioned negatively tilted trough and cold front will
continue to approach the western Dakotas Saturday night. Chances
for showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast after
00z across the far west, expanding east overnight with the best
chances across the north. The global models continue to keep most
of the precipitation west of the Montana border, but the longer
range CAMs (and to some extent the 12z NAM) are more aggressive in
bringing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across nearly
the entire state through the late morning/early afternoon hours
on Sunday. Strong upper level Q-vector convergence and steep
lapse rates along the front seem to support the potential of more
widespread showers and storms than the global models suggest, but
meager low level moisture and weak instability will likely limit
the magnitude and coverage. SPC has placed most of the area in
general thunder Saturday night and Sunday, but severe weather is
not expected which seems reasonable given the meager instability.
Behind the front expect more breezy conditions Sunday afternoon
with winds out of the west.
Regarding smoke, we may get a slight break on Sunday behind the
front but the global models keep us generally in westerly flow
aloft through midweek. Thus, hazy/smoky skies may be back to stay
for a few days.
The next chance for some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
looks to enter the forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday as
another wave approaches. Global models are still a bit fuzzy on
timing and specific details, but the consensus remains that we
will not see widespread precipitation from this system, just more
hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.
Ridging once again builds towards the end of the period as a
western United States trough begins to amplify and make its way
towards the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
VFR conditions with hazy skies expected to continue through the
TAF period. Smoke aloft will spread east into central North
Dakota through Saturday. Not seeing a strong indication that this
will translate to widespread surface visibility reductions at this
time. Breezy southeasterly winds develop Saturday afternoon. A
cold front will arrive in western North Dakota after 00Z, bringing
chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms Saturday night.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1117 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will gradually build into the area over
the weekend and will persist through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Text and gridded products have been updated to remove the
Coastal Flood Advisory.
The inland wedge will strengthen overnight as the parent high
bridges the central Appalachians and builds south through the
Carolina Piedmont. A risk for patchy drizzle will linger a few
more hours across the south. Overall, conditions will remain dry
through the night. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland
to the lower 70s along the Georgia coast where onshore winds
will moderate temperatures.
Lake Winds: A Lake Wind Advisory has been posted for Lake
Moultrie through noon Saturday. Winds are expected to increase
into the 15-20 kt range with frequent gusts to 25 kt overnight
into Saturday morning as strong mixing over the warm lake waters
support strong mixing. H3R and RAP profiles support the highest
winds over the central and southwest portions of the lake. Waves
will build to 1-2 ft, highest central and southwest portions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday through Monday: Strong surface high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes region will gradually deepen as it
propagates eastward. Surface ridging will continue to build over
the weekend, with associated northeast flow eventually forming
a wedge pattern. As surface winds veer to the northeast after
the passage of the front, gusty winds will persist mainly along
the coast due to a tightening pressure gradient. Wind gusts
could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria over Lake Moultrie
this weekend; however, the current forecast caps gusts around 20
kt.
Subsidence and a stable atmosphere should eliminate much
precipitation from developing over land. Weak instability over the
waters and deep moisture being advected from distant Hurricane Teddy
calls for slight chance PoPs due to the potential for isolated
showers developing. Strong northeast flow could push a shower
onshore in southeast GA; however, it will likely be short-lived and
light in nature. Model guidance hints at the greatest possibility
for rain over McIntosh County where deeper moisture exists. PoPs are
capped over this area near 20% considering the atmosphere is
relatively stable.
Much cooler temperatures are expected with high temps about 10
degrees below normal for this time in September. High temperatures
Saturday through Monday should only reach the low to mid 70s, and
min temps are forecast to drop below 60F inland with low to mid 60s
closer to the coast. Additionally, noticeably lower dew points will
make way for a drier, comfortable "autumn-like" setting.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wedge of high pressure and drier air will prevail across the
area through the middle of next week keeping rain chances to
minimum. High temperatures will gradually increase through the
week. Low temperatures could drop into the low 50s on Tuesday
and Wednesday. By late week, low pressure could approach the
area from the west and increase rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cigs are expected to mostly remain VFR through the period,
although a brief period of MVFR and possibly some very light
drizzle could impact the terminals this evening. A last minute
TEMPO may be included just before release time pending trends.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief MVFR conditions are
possible in low clouds this weekend. VFR expected thereafter.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds are steadily increasing across the waters this
evening. Northeast winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt will be
common overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in force.
Saturday through Wednesday: Strong ridging will continue to
build over the waters further deteriorating marine conditions with
gusty northeast winds around 25 kt, 6-7 foot seas entering the
nearshore waters, and up to 10 foot seas in the outer waters on
Saturday. Winds and seas will continue to gradually increase,
following the strengthening pressure gradient as distant Hurricane
Teddy moves north-northwest closer to strong surface high pressure.
Seas could build up to 10 feet in the nearshore waters Sunday and up
to 15 feet in the outer waters as wind gusts increase to near 35
knots. A slow downward trend in the wind gusts and seas will occur
early next week; however, noticeable improvement in the marine
conditions will not be until Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are
ongoing for all marine zones. The outer GA waters has been upgraded
to a Gale Watch beginning 16Z Saturday. AMZ374 may need to be
upgraded to a Gale Warning and the near shore waters may need to be
upgraded to Gale Watches/Warnings.
Rip Currents: A low risk of rip currents remains in the forecast for
today and a moderate risk is forecast for Saturday. An elevated risk
of rip currents is expected thereafter due to elevated northeast
winds gradually increasing and incoming long period swell up to 16
seconds from distant Hurricane Teddy. In addition, building seas
over the weekend could lead to high breakers at the beaches, 5 feet
or greater late this weekend. High Surf Advisories could be needed
along the beaches. Beach erosion could occur with the combined
effects of high breakers and higher tidal levels.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Significant coastal flooding is expected this weekend into
early next week. The combination of astronomical forces,
freshwater arriving from upstream, and gusty NE winds will
result in flooding of both the AM and PM high tide cycles. PETSS
guidance remains missing due to a scheduled outage. The extra-
tropical guidance is suspected to be too low for the days 2-3
period. Based on the duration and strength of the wind field,
departures over astronomical tides should increase Saturday into
Sunday, the peak tide is forecast for Sunday morning. Peak
water levels may reach the highest since the Thanksgiving 2018
event for both the SC and GA coasts. The combination of the
AM/PM tides may result in 6-10 hours of water in excess of flood
stage each day. Given the long duration of water above flood
stage, it is possible that flooding may occur well upstream on
rivers and creeks with tidal cycles.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ354.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for
AMZ374.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ374.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ330.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Visible RGB satellite showing the smoky sky over, basically the
entire region and high smoke concentration is focused around the
5000 ft level with lower concentration per HRRR smoke products
toward the 1000 ft level, ahead of a surface trough from around
Scott City to Dodge city and southeast. Warmest temperatures this
afternoon were behind the surface trough where temperatures
reached the low 80s by 2 pm, contrast to mid 70s on southeast
surface winds ahead of the front. Marginally warmer overnight lows
can be expected tonight, but still comfortable in the mid 50s
most areas.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Little overall change to the going forecast in either the short or
long term. We will develop a better boundary layer pressure gradient
over the western half of Kansas which will result in more pronounced
southwest/downslope flow for Saturday. This looks to push well into
the upper 80s with winds sustained up near 20 knots or higher by the
late morning. Both he EC and GFS20 show a weak trough and cold
front influencing the area mid week, however it is not strong
enough to change the overall pattern as warm temperatures extend
well into the northern plains into late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 441 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle, along with continued
modest visibility reductions in smoke/haze. MVFR visibility is not
expected. Light S/SE winds near 10 kts are expected overnight.
After 15z Sat, expect strong south winds to return to all
airports, gusting 30-35 kts. The strongest south winds are
expected at GCK Saturday midday/afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 55 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 53 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 55 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
P28 54 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
626 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
...Updated for 00z Aviation...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
General Summary...
A quiet, generally comfortable forecast is on tap. Cool conditions
will prevail today, slowly giving way to warmer temperatures through
the weekend and early next week, back into the low to mid 80s.
Breezy southerly winds will prevail over the weekend, especially
Sunday when gusts could push 30 to 35+ mph over portions of
wester/northwest Iowa. Precipitation chances will be very hard to
come by as well, with only very low end chances in the forecast over
far northern Iowa into Minnesota Sunday and Wednesday nights. Smoke
from western wild fires also likely to linger overhead form now
through early to middle of next week.
A Bit More Detail...
The seven day forecast is devoid of major concerns with regards to
temperatures, winds, and precipitation. Instead, there are a few
lower-end areas of concern. To begin with, upper level pattern
across the western and central CONUS will continue to be conducive
for smoke advection across the area. Currently, a closed upper low
just entering the western Oregon coast will continue southerly mid
and upper level flow over the main fire region, allowing smoke to
ride overtop the ridge and down the northwest flow into the upper
Mississippi Valley region. HRRR Smoke has shown a consistent trend
for higher concentrations of smoke to pass overhead this weekend,
resulting in continued and increased filtering of sunlight.
Fortunately, the smoke should remain aloft, limiting any
surface/near-surface issues. Synoptic guidance suggests relief from
smoke aloft may not come until mid-late week when the upper level
flow may keep some smoke west, but with fires ongoing in Oregon and
Washington as well, we may be hard pressed to see truly clear skies.
Main consequences revolve around reduced insolation and potential
affects on temperatures including cooler highs, possibly slightly
warmer lows. Have adjusted Saturday a degree or two in accordance
with that line of thought.
Away from smoke, the aforementioned upper level low entering the PNW
will force amplified ridging in to the Plains, resulting in warming
temperatures into the weekend and new work week. While smoke may
temper highs a bit, high confidence in low to mid 80s returning as
early as Sunday in western forecast areas and area wide during the
early portions of the week. As this transition occurs, current
surface high will slide off and surface low will build into the
central and northern Rockies front range areas causing surface
pressure gradient and winds to increase. Winds over the weekend may
yield sustained 20+ mph and gusts pushing 35+ over the area,
especially across the west on Sunday. As the parent upper level
system slides across southern/central Canada late in the weekend,
very low end precipitation chances may be seen in far northern Iowa
along a weakening boundary. The trend in reducing POPs has continued
and for the time being the Sunday night period is now dry.
Broad upper level ridging/zonal flow will dominate early-mid week,
keeping the region dry and pleasant. Flagship synoptic guidance
remains in fair agreement on a shortwave trough moving through in
the Wednesday evening/overnight time frame, bringing with it another
chance for a few showers and a slight cool down. With the surface
low anticipated to be along/near the Canadian border, the frontal
passage, along with large surface dew point depressions, appears to
be hard pressed to provide enough of a kick for much precipitation
potential with best chances as you move northward into Minnesota. At
this point cannot rule out an elevated shower or two though. Main
discernible change more likely to be a brief one day switch from
southerly winds to northerly winds and nominal few degree cool down.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Winds will
become southerly on Saturday and increase, gusting over 20 kts
mainly over the western half of the state. Upper-level smoke will
increase across portions of the state again on Saturday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Hagenhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
510 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Quiet weather was in place across the area with high pressure
centered across northern Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.
Despite that, clouds were widespread with good vertical mixing and
steep lapse rates aloft in the boundary layer. This was leading to
cooler temperatures with values as of 2 PM ranging from 59 in
Dubuque, to 69 in Independence.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Key Message:
1) Below normal temperatures continue into the beginning of the
weekend but with dry and quiet weather.
Broken diurnal cloud cover should diminish through the evening with
boundary layer decoupling, which should lead to clear skies over the
area tonight. In addition, the surface high will make its way
towards the Midwest, and is progged to be centered directly over
Michigan by 12z Saturday. As a result, winds will become light and
variable.
All of this sets up what will likely be the coldest night of the
season so far. Temperatures, especially closer to the high in
northwest Illinois, will easily drop into the mid to upper 30s,
especially in low-lying areas like river valleys. Several CAMs
like the NAMnest and ARW hint at this strongly, and even show
values nearing freezing in the Illinois River Valley in Putnam
county. However, this likely overdoing a bit. Regardless,
temperatures falling to this degree will lead to potential for
development of patchy frost. The best chance for this will be in
Stephenson county and into portions of Bureau and Putnam counties.
Given the patchy nature, will not issue a frost advisory with
this package.
Saturday should see some good recovery in temperatures with CU rule
procedures suggesting mostly sunny skies during the day as we lose
moist northeast flow from Lake Michigan. Temperatures will be
similar to today, with widespread afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 60s. HRRR forecasts suggest another round of western CONUS
wildfire smoke will likely overspread the area beginning in the
evening, but should not be enough to influence afternoon highs.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Key Message:
1) Temperatures warming heading into next week; dry and quiet
weather conditions continue.
The high pressure will continue to influence our weather for much of
the long term period. As it continues to move into the Northeast
U.S., surface ridging should gradually expand to its south and west
through early next week, with most guidance suggesting it reaching
all the way down into northern Texas through at least Tuesday. This
will be effective at keeping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico at bay
even with the formation of what will likely be Beta over the next
few days.
Eventually, the surface high should begin to weaken with decreasing
heights aloft and a breakdown of the upper level ridging. By mid to
late next week, deterministic guidance including the GFS and ECMWF
show a cold front moving across the area but differ w.r.t. precip
chances. At the point the GFS is the most bullish while the ECMWF
shows a weaker front. Given the low confidence have kept shower
chances out with this package.
Temperatures will end the weekend in the upper 60s to low 70s, and
should begin to warm back into the 70s to near 80 for the remainder
of the week with mainly zonal flow aloft. Lows should remain in the
50s. If we end up with more wildfire smoke overhead, this may act to
lower temperatures slightly. Given these kinds of forecasts are only
made in the short term, didn`t make any changes to values at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
VFR conditions are expected to dominate the TAF cycle, with a BKN
cumulus deck gradually decreasing tonight with loss of heating
and influx of drier air. If the clouds were to hang around longer
than expected late tonight into Saturday AM, then would have low
potential for high MVFR ceilings mainly near to west of DBQ to
CID terminals. Another round of upper level smoke may move in
Saturday. Light easterly winds tonight look to turn from
south/southeast on Saturday and increase to around 10 kts with
some localized higher gusts possible west of the Mississippi River
in the afternoon.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
820 PM MST Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will persist over northern Arizona through
Sunday. Expect breezy conditions today and Saturday, with the
fastest winds near the Utah border. A slight chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms returns to the Northland Monday through
Wednesday next week.
&&
.UPDATE...Minor updates were made this evening to overnight low
temperatures. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for another
cool and calm night across northern Arizona.
Expect more breezy southwest winds to return tomorrow afternoon,
mainly across western Arizona. As mentioned by the day shift, we
may see an increase in haze from the west coast wildfires with
this southwest flow as well. However, this will largely be lofted
high in the atmosphere.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /319 PM MST/...A dry and warm day has developed
across northern Arizona. Southwesterly flow aloft has increased
and will continue to increase through Saturday in advance of a
trough moving through the Great Basin to our north. This will be a
dry trough passage for Arizona but will continue to bring breezy
southwest winds through Saturday. Winds will be strongest on
Saturday afternoon when gusts reach up to 25 to 35 mph across
western Arizona. In addition, the trough will result in a decrease
in daytime temperatures over the weekend but they will still
remain above normal. The HRRR Smoke model shows indications that
the increasing southwest flow may lead to increased smoke/haze
Saturday.
Next week looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures running
close to or just slightly above average. Early in the week,
southeasterly flow aloft develops and begins to draw moisture
northward along the Colorado River. We may see just enough of an
increase in moisture for a few afternoon instability showers to
develop. We will carry a low chance for showers in the forecast
next week, mostly favoring the mountains along and north of the
Mogollon Rim. We are not expecting appreciable rainfall. Another
dry trough passage with increased winds is possible late next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Southwest winds will increase again Saturday
with afternoon gusts 20-25kts west of a line from KPRC-KFLG-KGCN.
Areas of smoke and haze will be possible from west coast fires
, though remaining mostly elevated. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday...breezy south to southwest winds across
northwestern Arizona, with calm to light winds on Sunday.
Temperatures will run slightly above normal.
Monday through Tuesday... Isolated thunderstorms with lightning and
gusty winds possible Monday afternoon especially north/west of
Flagstaff. Temperatures remain slightly above average with light
southwest winds Tuesday/Wednesday. Critical fire weather
thresholds are not expected through the period.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ET/MCT
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
455 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Updated for air quality section
.SYNOPSIS...Increased southwest winds will bring gusty conditions
over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada this evening.
Daytime temperatures will remain below average on Saturday then
rise to slightly above average by early next week. Dry conditions
will prevail tonight through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Upper trough now pushing through CA brought
increased mid/high clouds to our area today as it pulled up some
moisture from the remnants of what was Tropical Depression
Karina. The trough has also brought cooler temperatures to our
area aside from the Kern County Desert areas today. Several
stations in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills from Fresno
County northward picked up some light rainfall earlier today with
amounts generally a tenth of an inch or less. in addition, trace
amounts were reported at some stations in the San Joaquin Valley.
HRRR indicating sprinkles or a few light showers are still
possible in the Sierra Nevada through early this evening.
As the trough continues to push through our area tonight, a
period of gusty southwest winds are possible over the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada which could pose challenges to
fire suppression efforts. The trough has provided for better
mixing conditions which have resulted in improved visibility over
the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills today.
By Saturday, the trough will move to the east leaving central CA
under a dry northwest flow which will result in clearing skies,
and cooler than normal temperatures across our area. A weak ridge
is progged to build into CA on Sunday which will result in a
dry weather and a warming trend on Sunday and Monday with daytime
temperatures rising to slightly above normal levels across our
area by Monday.
The medium range models are in good overall agreement for the
remainder of next week with the ridge being flattened on Tuesday
by a weak system pushing through the PAC NW then rebuilding on
Wednesday and Thursday before a stronger system moves through the
PAC NW next Friday. Temperatures will remain slightly above
seasonal normals for much of next week until lowering to near
normal on Friday. With the moisture and dynamics from these
systems remaining well to the north of our area, mainly clear
skies and dry conditions will prevail next week. However, with
light winds expected to prevail for much of next week, wildfire
smoke could impact the area once again next week with lower
visibility and slightly lower daytime temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...Over the Sierra Nevada range, areas of mountain
obscuring IFR conditions due to clouds and showers over the Sierra
Nevada until 03Z Sat. Otherwise areas of MVFR visibility and
local IFR visibility due to smoke will continue for the next 24
hours. Elsewhere across the central CA interior, local MVFR
visibility due to smoke and haze will continue for the next 24
hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert
On Saturday September 19 2020... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kern and Tulare Counties. Very unhealthy in Sequoia National Park
and Forest.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
public...DS
aviation....DS
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1031 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
In the overall pattern, a trough is making its way onshore along the
West Coast while a ridge sits over the Rockies and another trough
stretches from Hudson Bay through the East Coast. There is a
tropical depression in the western portions of the Gulf of Mexico
which is tracked to work its way north then west towards the Texas
coast early next week. A plethora of fires along and west of the
Rockies continue to bring smoke plumes/haze into the Plains.
Afternoon temperatures range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with
variable winds at 5 to 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Highlights:
1) Haze/smoke possibly into Sunday
2) Highs in upper 70s to lower 80s
Another day of hazy skies due to the smoke from the fires in the
Rockies and westward was the story for the Central Plains today.
Thankfully there were minimal if any visibility restrictions as
it was more elevated than surface based. According to the latest
experimental HRRR-smoke model and RAP-smoke model, the smoke/haze
is expected to continue potentially even through Sunday. The RAP
hints of an increase mid morning on Saturday and into Sunday for
the central and western thirds of Kansas. This could mean a
thicker layer of haze in the sky or the return of possible
visibility restrictions. Anyone with breathing issues or other
sensitivities to smoke should consider staying indoors.
A trough is moving over the West Coast and should track to the
east/northeast through the weekend which will push the northern
portions of the ridge east as well. The center of the low pressure
system is still on target for movement across south central Canada
on Sunday. Winds are anticipated to pick up and be breezy during the
afternoon hours of Saturday and Sunday primarily west of a line from
Hutchinson to Salina. Temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper
70s to lower 80s for this period. Only minor tweaks were made to the
ongoing forecast as it was still representative of the expectations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Highlight: Highs around 80 with lows in the mid 50s
A shortwave is still progged to cross the Northern Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday. High pressure should follow in for Thursday. The
forecast remains dry for the next seven days for now. Temperatures
are forecast to stay near the seasonal normal range with highs
around 80 and lows in the mid 50s. It will definitely be pretty
nice for anyone wanting to enjoy outdoor activities or work on
fall chores.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24hrs across the region
as surface high pressure drifts slowly eastward. Southeast winds
will switch to the south and increase during the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 55 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 53 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 53 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 55 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 55 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 54 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 54 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 53 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 53 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 53 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 52 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 53 77 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...CDJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
856 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes Region continues to bring mostly clear skies to much of the
Mid-South with the exception of some high clouds over Mississippi
associated with an upper level jet streak moving across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. As of 8 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-
South are in the 60s at most locations. Adjusted temperatures down
slightly to account for short term trends. Otherwise, no other
changes made to the remainder of tonight`s forecast.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/
UPDATE...
Aviation Update Below
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020/
DISCUSSION...
A pleasant afternoon ongoing across the Mid-South. Temperatures
are currently in the mid to upper 70s under mostly clear, albeit
hazy skies. Latest GOES CIMSS Natural Color imagery shows thick
wildfire smoke filtering into the Mid-South from the northwest
with high cirrus spilling into northeast Mississippi.
Brisk northwest winds will continue to usher in an even drier
airmass late tonight. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 50s
areawide, with a few low lying areas briefly touching the 40s
by tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure will remain in place
through at least early next week. This will lead to a string of
several pleasant days across the Mid-South. Expect highs in the
70s with lows in the 50s each morning. Latest HRRR model shows
smoke finally exiting the Mid-South by late tomorrow afternoon as
the jet stream retreats northward. Thereafter, we should see the
return of blue skies through early next week.
Models are now latching onto what is now Tropical Storm Beta. It
appears that TS Beta will stay in close proximity to the Texas
Gulf Coast through early next week and will produce copious
amounts of rainfall. Models suggest that it will get picked up by
a subtropical shortwave by the middle of next week and lift
through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Lots of uncertainty still
remains on how far north the remnants will move and its effects on
the Mid-South. Went with a blend for now, keeping low POPs across
north Mississippi through late next week. Stay tuned.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF
VFR conditions through the TAF cycle at all sites. NNE winds
8-15kts. Will get gusty again tomorrow afternoon with gusts
15-20kt range.
SMW
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke will persist across our region through Saturday morning,
then anticipate improving conditions. The arrival of a cold front
will bring showers and westerly winds. Not only will the front
bring showers to the Inland Northwest, but it should provide
essential rains to the Oregon wildfires. Drier and seasonal
weather under smoke free skies is forecast for Sunday through
Tuesday, then warmer and showery weather is forecast by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday Night: The air quality has made little
regionwide improvement today. However, the approaching weather
system has been bringing significant improvements to coastal air
quality. The change in winds and rain will assist in the removal of
the smoke and poor air quality. By Sunday, we are anticipating most
smoke removed. The Air Quality Alert will continue through tomorrow
morning.
The incoming low is bringing a break in the high pressure & it`s dry
and smoky air. The bands of wetting rain have been moving across the
western side of Washington and Oregon today. They are slowly making
their way into the Cascades late this afternoon. Rain will be
widespread tonight and further east tomorrow. With this system,
we will receive much needed precipitation. From tonight into
tomorrow, there will be widespread rainfall, with the chance for
isolated heavy downpours. The 36 hour rain total will range
anywhere from 0.02" in the Basin and up to 0.5" - 0.75" in the
northern WA mountains, Cascades, and Idaho Panhandle. The much
needed moisture will be helpful with some current fires. However,
the numerous burn scars are going to be very sensitive to even a
brief heavy downpour, which may create debris flow. There is not
generous instability with this system, but there is potential for
isolated thunderstorms in the Cascades tonight and northern
mountain on Saturday. The Blues and far southeastern Washington
has the potential for a few pop up cells with lightning overnight
tonight with the heavier rainfall. There is a slight chance and we
are low in confidence. Many locations are still quite dry and
lightning could easily spark a fire.
Winds will be breezy tomorrow, with potential gusts up to 20-30 mph,
widespread in eastern Washington. The HRRR is hinting at a gusty
outflow with the arrival of the showers, but the smoke coverage
could prevent this and many models are not in agreement. If so,
these winds would be isolated and monitored if they are by fires.
Sunday winds will be light, accompanied by remnant rain in the
far eastern Panhandle.
Temperatures tomorrow and Sunday will be cooler in seasonal normals,
with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Lows cool back into the 40s
Saturday and Sunday night. JS
Monday through Friday: The work week will start off on the dry
side but becoming wetter by the end of the week and feeling more
fall like. A southwesterly flow aloft will be over the Inland NW
for Monday and Tuesday. Aside from some spotty showers near the
Cascade crest on Monday, it should be a dry period through Tuesday
night. Residual low level moisture will give way to patchy morning
fog in the northern valleys. Temperatures will be slightly above
normal with daytime highs in the 70s and lows spanning the 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will be light with occasional westerly breezes in
the afternoon and early evening. Meanwhile, a Pacific low will be
swinging from the Gulf of AK toward the WA coast. A slow moving
frontal boundary will sag across the region, reaching the Cascades
Wednesday morning and then shifting across the Columbia Basin and
into the northern mountains Wednesday night into Thursday night.
Showers will linger into Friday with a broad upper trough over the
region. The best chance for measurable rains look to be across the
higher terrain, while lighter rainfall will stretch across the
Basin. Temperatures will warm slightly ahead of the cold front,
although by Friday temperatures cool to below normal.
Southwesterly winds will increase late Wednesday and continue
through Friday with higher gusts possible by Friday. A benefit of
the wetter and breezier pattern should keep smoke levels limited
from the region. /rfox
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Smoke will continue to impact TAF sites with reduced
visibility and ceilings. They are expected to fluctuate between
IFR and MVFR conditions through the TAF period. The incoming
frontal system tonight and tomorrow will bring chances of showers
at the TAF sites and will help clear out some of the smoke. There
is a slight chance for lightning at KEAT and KLWS tonight from
00z to 12Z. JS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 70 46 71 45 74 / 40 30 20 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 52 68 47 69 45 74 / 50 40 40 10 0 0
Pullman 48 67 43 70 42 73 / 60 50 10 0 0 0
Lewiston 57 74 53 76 51 79 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
Colville 47 72 41 73 39 75 / 30 50 40 10 0 10
Sandpoint 50 66 45 66 41 71 / 50 60 60 20 10 0
Kellogg 55 64 52 66 48 73 / 60 70 50 20 0 0
Moses Lake 49 76 46 76 46 75 / 30 20 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 57 73 54 75 53 74 / 60 20 10 0 0 0
Omak 55 76 48 75 48 74 / 50 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
534 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.UPDATE...
Most of the Red Flag Warnings were cancelled early due to much
higher humidities and only marginal wind speeds, especially for
Mono-Mineral counties and west central NV which received light
amounts of rain. Lightning strikes were occurring east of US-95
with the shower activity, which produced up to 0.20" of rainfall
in some locations. These thunderstorms will exit Pershing,
Churchill and Mineral counties by 6 pm.
The only areas where Red Flag Warnings were retained through 8 pm
are the western NV Sierra Front and eastern Lassen County (Fire
zones 420 and 278). In these areas the humidity is still
marginally dry in the 15-20% range with wind gusts around 30 mph,
while some wind prone areas were reporting 35-40 mph gusts.
Conditions in these areas should improve after sunset. MJD
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact the region, although
some areas not downwind of fires should see improvement through at
least Saturday. A cold front making its way through the region
today will bringing cooler temperatures through Saturday, followed
by some warming on Sunday. Slightly above average temperatures and
dry conditions are expected through much of next week.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 134 PM PDT Fri Sep 18 2020/
SYNOPSIS...
Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact the region, although
some areas not downwind of fires should see improvement through
at least Saturday. A cold front making its way through the region
today will bringing cooler temperatures through Saturday. Warming
to slightly above average Sunday is expected to persist through
next week with highs generally in the 70s and 80s for valleys.
SHORT TERM...
Low pressure centered near the central Oregon coast will progress
into the interior Pac NW and northern Rockies by Saturday afternoon.
A moisture plume from the subtropical Pacific west of Baja California
picked up by the incoming low combined with orographic ascent in the
Sierra to bring between a few hundredths and ~0.15" of rainfall to
the Sierra. For western and west-central NV, the moisture plume
has encountered broad upper forcing and instability ahead of the
incoming low. This has initiated isolated showers with rainfall
generally between a trace and a few hundredths, except east of
the Carson Sink where between 0.10" and 0.15" has been reported by
automated stations. Any showers should dissipate by this evening
as the moisture plume and best forcing exits into central and
northeast NV.
Winds have picked up this afternoon as cooler air with the incoming
trough axis clashes with warmer antecedent air. Gusts have been
fairly modest for this area of the country with 20-35 mph noted so
far today for valleys and slopes and 40-60 mph over Sierra ridges.
Winds should peak in the next few hours with gusts up to 40 mph
or so below ridges, and up to 60-80 mph over exposed Sierra
ridges. Humidities are way up today, mostly above 20% (higher
still in the moisture plume); however, winds in some areas are
strong enough that some fire danger remains. See the fire
discussion for more.
The increased mixing from winds has brought much better air quality
to many areas, with the exception of the southern half of Mono
County where the Creek Fire continues to plague that area (as it
is directly downwind of the fire). There may also be some pockets
of poor air quality left out in the Carson Sink although visibility
has improved in Fallon recently so air quality may be improving
there as well.
The main forecast concerns tonight through Sunday night will be
the broken record that is smoke along with temperatures, mainly
for lows in the Sierra and coldest lower valleys for the next
couple nights. HRRR smoke forecasts bring more smoke tonight into
areas well north of Reno-Sparks, into the Carson Sink, and across
Mono and Mineral counties with prevailing SW-W flow bringing
additional particulates from the North Complex and Creek fires.
Later Saturday and Saturday night, some smoke may drift into far
western NV once again as low-level flow turns light easterly.
If you have seen smoke clear out in your area, enjoy it while you
can!
As for low temperatures, freezing temperatures are likely in many
Sierra valleys this weekend, at least for a few hours early in
the morning, with the very coldest lower valleys possibly seeing
some frost. The best shot may be tomorrow night as it may remain a
bit mixed up tonight as the trough axis moves overhead. In any case,
watch your local forecast and give it a few degrees of leeway on
the lower side (forecast error combined with colder temperatures
near the ground below where official air temperatures are read)
if you have sensitive plants or exposed water lines to protect.
-Snyder
LONG TERM...next week...
The weather pattern looks mildly active with one or two passing
shortwave troughs (around Monday and late Thursday/Friday) possible.
On and off breezy southwest-west winds are possible during this
time with dry conditions in place. Temperatures look to remain
above average (peaking Wed-Thu) through at least Thursday before
possibly easing down next Friday and Saturday. There is about a
10-degree range in possible highs next Friday and Saturday...going
with blended forecast guidance is best for now but keep in mind
the actual high may wind up around 5 degrees warmer or cooler.
The second trough next week could also bring light rain north of
Susanville and Gerlach and likely just breezes south of there.
-Snyder
AVIATION...
Gusty winds this afternoon into the evening, mainly to 25-30 kts
but locally to around 35 kts for valleys, will decrease tonight
as a front moves through and a weak surface high settles into the
area. With ridge winds gusting ~40-50 kts into the evening,
turbulence over and downwind of ridges/peaks is a good bet. Modest
high pressure moves overhead for much lighter north-east winds
over the weekend along with VFR conditions (outside of morning fog
potential in the Martis Valley near KTRK, especially by Sunday
morning).
Smoke-wise, there looks to be at least a brief reprieve through
Saturday for many areas not directly downwind of major California
fires; however, a general light haze (possibly affecting slantwise
vis some) remains possible due to the shear amount of smoke being
generated to the west. Areas that remain under the gun for lowered
visibility in smoke are Mono and Mineral counties (Creek Fire), as
well as across Plumas/southern Lassen counties eastward to Pershing
and Churchill counties (North Complex fires). This is likely to
affect KMMH the worst but could also bring a return to degraded
visibility for KLOL/KNFL tonight into Saturday morning. -Snyder
FIRE WEATHER...
Not exactly your classic Red Flag situation out there. Mainly a low-
end event but still plenty of wind with gusts 30+ mph in many areas.
However a band of tropical moisture has resulted in light showers
and higher humidity across a good part of the CWA. Afternoon RH`s
even up into the 60s/70s in spots of W Nevada and the E Sierra. Even
so the precip is for the most part not a wetting rain and vegetation
is quite dry, so erratic wind-driven fire behaviour remains possible
into early evening. Winds will continue strong on the ridges and mid-
slopes until about midnight and then settle as upper jet moves off
to the east.
Light and variable winds for the most part this weekend, ranging
from east/northeasterly over most areas to sneaky afternoon
southwesterly breezes along the Sierra crest. Could see some
isolated spots of critical conditions Monday afternoon as upper
shortwave kicks up the winds slightly, but most ECMWF EPS members
keep us below warning levels.
-Chris
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ420.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
NVZ002.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
in NVZ004.
CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ278.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in
CAZ072.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
826 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.UPDATE...
It has been a fairly quiet evening with sporadic showers and storms
confined to southwest Florida with most of the other counties
staying rain-free. Fair conditions will continue through the night
with light winds expected. The trough that has been over the region
will pull away to the east, allowing for some drier air and
decreasing rain chances to settle over the region on Saturday. This
is already evident in the 00Z evening sounding with a PWAT 1.96
inches, which is a half inch lower than 24 hours ago. Rain chances
tomorrow will top out in the 20-40 percent range with seasonal
daytime highs in the upper 80s. Made a minor tweak to POPs removing
all mention of rain overnight to coincide with latest radar imagery
and HRRR model guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail with light winds less than 10 knots
through tomorrow morning. Onshore flow is expected Saturday
afternoon with the west coast sea breeze remaining less than 10
knots. Scattered showers and storms are possible from 18-00Z so will
hold VCTS at all terminals during that time. No other aviation
impacts expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Light northwest through northeast winds around 8-12 knots and
minimal rain chances expected overnight and on Saturday. The
gradient tightens between strong high pressure to the north and
Tropical Storm Beta over the west Gulf of Mexico starting late
Saturday. This will produce increasing northeast winds with SCEC or
possibly SCA conditions beginning Saturday night and continuing into
next week. In addition to building seas with increasing winds, a
long period westerly swell propagating from Tropical Storm Beta can
be expected into next week.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 89 75 88 / 0 30 20 40
FMY 76 91 75 90 / 10 30 10 70
GIF 73 90 75 87 / 0 50 30 50
SRQ 74 89 75 90 / 10 20 20 50
BKV 72 89 73 86 / 0 40 20 30
SPG 76 89 75 89 / 0 20 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...74/Wynn
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...29/Delerme