Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/18/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours with light winds and mostly clear skies. Elevated smoke will
be visible mainly across eastern NM Friday at sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Expect some warming with mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures through the weekend as high pressure moves south over
the Land of Enchantment. Only isolated late day showers or storms are
forecast across the high terrain through Sunday, with mostly sunny
and hazy skies. Above normal temperatures will persist next week,
with increasing chances for showers and storms around mid week as a
disturbance moves southwest across the state.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
With the H5 high centered near the Four Corners, dry, northerly flow
continues over the area. Some cumulus has developed over southeast
NM, and some light shower or thunderstorm activity will be possible
through about 00Z/01Z over southern Chaves County. Otherwise, a
quiet night will be in store with clear skies and light winds on
tap. The latest runs of the HRRR smoke continue to transport smoke
from the wildfires across the western CONUS into eastern NM. This
smoke will all be upper-level smoke, but did make a mention of haze
across the east tonight.
A Pacific storm system moves ashore the PacNW coast on Friday which
will shift the area of high pressure into southern NM. This will
allow surface winds to shift southeasterly across the east, but
otherwise, Friday will be very similar to today. Near normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions are in store again aside
from the possibility of a storm or two across the Sangres.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
This weekend will feature a weakened upper high lingering over the
state as a Pacific low/trough progresses east across the northern
and central Rockies and ejects into the northern and central Great
Plains. Temperatures will generally be above normal across New Mexico
with isolated daytime heating triggered convection over the high
terrain. High pressure aloft will continue to weaken Monday and give
way to the westerlies, with no significant change to the sensible
weather.
An upper level ridge is forecast to build over California and the
Great Basin from mid to late next week, but the 12Z medium range
model solution are at odds with the path and amplification of an
upper level trough dropping south along the front range of the
Rockies around the upper high circulation. The 12Z GFS in particular
is fairly wet for our area Wed/Thu with the upper high well to the
north and low pressure aloft to our south in what looks like a
developing Rex block. Will hold onto fairly minimal PoPs for next
Wed/Thu for now given lack of run-to-run consistency and differences
among the medium range solutions. Temperatures should remain above
normal through at least the middle of next week.
15/11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are in the forecast through the next week.
Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through the weekend as
temperatures remain near normal. As a storm system tracks across the
Rockies, there may be enough moisture to allow for isolated storms
across the northern mountains each afternoon. However, wetting
precipitation is not likely. Mostly dry conditions will continue
into next week aside from isolated storms across the western and
northern high terrain along with the potential for some wetting
precipitation.
15
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
619 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Increased sky cover east of the Missouri this evening. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track and no further changes were made.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Not much going on in the next 24-36 hours. Currently have a deck of
thin mid clouds across the northeast CWA and a decent area of smoke
aloft across south central counties. The clouds will dissipate for
the most part tonight, and the HRRR shows smoke backing northwards
for Friday. As such will continue with partly cloudy mention. There
will also be a small uptick in temperatures and dewpoints for
Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
At this point, deterministic and ensemble solutions are relatively
static in terms of synoptic-scale features Saturday through
Thursday. An upper level ridge moves across the country`s mid-
section through Saturday night, and then upper level troffing/height
falls moves across the country`s northern mid-section Sunday/Sunday
night. A dirty (flat) ridge or semi-zonal flow sets up Monday
through Tuesday night, before a transient mid-level shortwave passes
over the region late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Still
looks like a much more formidable upper level ridge is forecast to
build over the CONUS by the end of the week.
Lower bound probabilities remain for some iso`d/sct`d coverage of
showers or thunderstorms with the Sunday/Sunday night period of
height falls/west-southwest flow and then again mid-week with the
transient mid-level impulse. Otherwise, things look pretty dry in
the out periods.
Still advertising considerable warmth from Saturday through
Thursday. The post-frontal airmass Sunday night into Monday, at this
point, does not look to provide much in the way of relief from the
warmer conditions.
Notable mention: last night`s operational deterministic ECMWF
solution generated a considerably different (colder) solution for
mass fields and (more amplified) steering flow pattern aloft for
Wednesday/Thursday; different compared to other models` solutions as
well as its own ensembles output, which maintain a large upper level
ridge developing and low level warm air advecting over the center of
the CONUS by the end of the week. The ECMWF`s box and whiskers plot
of last night`s envelope of solutions revealed the deterministic
ECMWF`s output was the coldest (outlier) of any solution produced.
Thus, will exclude the 17th/00Z operational deterministic run of the
ECMWF from consideration with this forecast package.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, elevated
smoke will continue to stream over the region.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Sally will move from across the Carolinas
tonight and off the Mid Atlantic coast during Friday. Strong
high pressure will build into the region from the north
northeast Saturday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...
Latest analysis shows the center of post tropical cyclone Sally
over South Carolina, with a warm front extending northeastward
into North Carolina just south of our area. A shield of moderate
to locally heavy rain extends N/NE of the center and has been
impacting our entire area this afternoon into early this
evening. Overall the rainfall rates haven`t been that
impressive, but the cumulative effect of the rain over more than
several hours is starting to cause some minor flooding issues,
especially in urban areas. The area to focus on overnight is the
southeast portion of the area for a couple reasons. First, the
CAMs are still in fairly good agreement that an area of heavier
rain will move through SE VA and NE NC overnight as the low
moves N/NE across NC. Second, as the low moves closer to the
area overnight, the warm front will try to nudge north to the
vicinity of the NC/VA line. RAP forecast helicity south of the
front increases over NE NC after about 03Z. So in addition to
the flooding threat, there will be a marginal tornado threat
over at least NE NC and possibly far SE VA overnight into early
Friday morning.
An additional 2-4 inches of rain is likely overnight over the
southern two-thirds of the area, bringing overall totals to
roughly 3-6 inches. The Flash Flood Watch will continue through
early tomorrow evening for much of the area excluding roughly
the northern third (north of Richmond). Low temps overnight
range from the lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Thursday...
The remnant low will push farther ene and into the Atlc during
Fri. Rain will taper off and end from NW to SE Fri into Fri
evening, with improving sky conditions also. Highs 70 to 75.
Strong high pressure will then build into the region from the
NNE Fri night through Sun. This will provide dry and cool autumn
weather across the region, esply Sat through Sun. But, breezy to
windy NE winds will prevail, esply along the Bay and coast.
Lows Fri night will range from the upper 40s NW, to the lower
60s SE. Highs will mainly range from the mid 60s to near 70 Sat
and Sun. Lows Sat night will range from the mid 40s NW, to the
upper 50s/near 60 SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...
A deep upper trough is progged to be centered from NE Canada SSW to
New England at the start of the medium rage period (Sun night). At
the surface, strong high pressure (~1036mb) will be centered over
nrn new England, ridging SSW into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast CONUS.
We will likely remain under the influence of the high through at
least Wed AM as Hurricane Teddy is progged to track northward from
well off the SE CONUS coast to near the Canadian Maritimes from the
early to middle part of next week. The 12z/17 models are in decent
agreement that a shortwave trough that will be just off the
Northeast US coast on Mon will merge with TC Teddy near the Canadian
Maritimes by Tue or Wed. Locally, it will generally be dry but with
below average temperatures through much of the medium range period,
as onshore (mainly NE) flow prevails. Breezy conditions will be
possible near the coast through the early part of next week before
winds subside a bit by Wed as the surface high becomes centered
closer to our area. Will keep slight chc PoPs for far SE zones on
Mon for perhaps a shower or two. Otherwise, it will average partly-
mostly cloudy near the coast/partly-mostly clear inland from Mon-
Tue, with more sun than clouds across all areas by the middle of
next week.
Highs on Mon will only range from the mid 60s to around 70F. Lows
Mon/Tue AM will likely be in the mid 40s-near 50F along/west of I-
95, with 50s over ern portions of the CWA (and lower 60s at the
immediate coast in SE VA/NE NC). A modest warming trend starts on
Tue and continues through the middle of next week. Highs Tue
generally in the upper 60s-low 70s with highs warming into the mid
70s by Wed. Still cool Tue night w/ lows in the mid-upper 40s across
the wrn two-thirds of the CWA with 50s-near 60F closer to the
coast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...
Poor flying conditions overnight with widespread rain and low
stratus across the region in relation to the remnants of Sally.
Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings and visbys overnight through Friday
morning, before conditions slowly improve by the end of the TAF
period as the low moves off the coast and high pressure builds
in from the NW. Winds are mainly E/NE this evening becoming N/NE
on Friday. Wind speeds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25
kts on Friday.
OUTLOOK...
Strong high pressure builds into the region this weekend. Mostly
VFR conditions expected, although breezy conditions will
continue near the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...
The remnants of Sally will slowly track north towards the region
through this evening and tonight and then tracks near the VA Capes
early tomorrow morning. Currently seeing E to SE winds around 10 to
15 knots over the waters this afternoon. Seas range from around 3 to
4 feet, while waves in the Bay range from 1 to 2 feet (3 feet at the
mouth). Winds will continue to increase this evening and tonight and
become E to NE as the remnant low approaches from the south. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin as early as 00z for
the Chesapeake Bay and southern coastal waters due to winds
increasing to 15 to 20 knots and seas building to 5 feet. Winds will
be on the increase through the overnight hours, increasing to around
20 to 25 knots and becoming northerly (as the low moves offshore)
Friday morning. After collaboration with Morehead City, have
replaced the Gale Watch for the southern coastal waters/Currituck
Sound with a Gale Warning starting Friday afternoon and persisting
through the weekend. Opted to keep the mouth of the Bay out of the
initial Gale Warning (but did drag the Gale Watch back to Sunday) as
latest local wind probs are not overly excited with Gale gusts
during the first surge tomorrow for this location.
Friday and Saturday will both feature N to NE wind around 20 to 25
knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots for a majority of the waters (25
knots with gusts of 35-40 knots south). Some gusts in excess of 35
knots will be possible at the typical elevated sites during this
timeframe, but not widespread enough to expand Gale headlines at
this time, will keep high-end SCA wording for all areas minus the
southern coastal waters/Sound where the Gale Warning is in effect.
The gradient tightens Sunday into Sunday night allowing for
additional gale gusts during this timeframe. Gale headlines may need
to be expanded to include other portions of the coastal waters and
lower Bay during this time frame (for now have high-end SCAs running
into Sunday morning). The gradient finally starts to relax Monday
into Tuesday with a decreasing trend in winds expected during this
timeframe.
Given this extended period of long-fetch NE flow, waves and
especially seas will be a concern starting tomorrow and lasting well
into next week. Seas build to 5-7 tomorrow afternoon, 6-10 ft by
Saturday morning, and 8-12 ft by Sunday. Hurricane Teddy (well
offshore) will add additional energy to the mix on Monday with seas
ranging from 10-15 ft. Waves in the bay will increase accordingly
with 4-5 ft on Friday, 4-6 ft on Saturday and Sunday with 5-8 ft
becoming likely near the mouth of the bay. Seas likely remain
in excess of 5 feet into at least the middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...
Water levels this evening are running about 0.5-1 FT above
normal astronomical tide levels in advance of the remnants of
Sally and this is expected to continue overnight before trending
upward even further. This then puts most locations near minor
flood stage on Friday. So as a result have issued a coastal
flood advisory for the entire area for the high tide cycles on
Friday through Friday night. However, the coastal flood threat
is expected to increase on Saturday through early next week as
persistent northeasterly flow is will push water toward the
coast with the southern and western portions of the Bay and
coastal areas from Wachapreague south expected to see the
highest water levels. So have issued a Coastal Flood watch for
this area from Saturday through Monday morning. Will continue to
monitor the development of the NE winds over the next 24 to 36
hours as the watch may need to be upgraded to a warning later on
Friday or Friday night. The remainder of the area is also
expected to see above normal water levels with minor flooding
expected to the coastal flood advisory for the remainder of the
area will likely need to be extended through the coming weekend
too.
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...
Expect sharp rises on area rivers over the next few days given
the expected heavy rainfall through Friday morning. Minor river
flooding is expected on the Meherrin, Nottoway and Blackwater
Rivers by Saturday, except for the Meherrin River at
Lawrenceville which should reach minor flood stage by early
Friday morning. A flood warning is now in effect there.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
for MDZ021>025.
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
morning for NCZ102.
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
for NCZ102.
High Surf Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
morning for VAZ077-078-084>086-089-090-093-095>098-100-
523>525.
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ060-061-
065>069-078>090-092-093-095>100-512>516-518-520-523>525.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday
for VAZ089-090.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM EDT Saturday
for VAZ099.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
for VAZ093-095>098-100-523>525.
High Surf Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday
for VAZ075-077-078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-
638-650-652-654.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ633-656-658.
Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ633-
656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
ANZ634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...AJB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
624 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Another quiet day across the region under northwest flow aloft
with surface high pressure building in. Satellite imagery showed
some additional smoke moving into the area, but experimental HRRR
indicated it would be remaining aloft in the forecast area.
Otherwise, the main issue in the short term is the cooler
temperatures and frost potential tonight. Skies look to remain
clear tonight as high pressure continues to build in. This sets up
for some pretty good radiational cooling, with the favored cold
areas near and north of I-94 getting down into the lower 30s. A
Frost Advisory has been issued for those areas. Expect another
cool, quiet day on Friday, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Expect another night with some frost potential in the favored
cold areas Friday night. Otherwise the long term period still
looks pretty quiet. High pressure will start pushing off to the
east Saturday as a tightening pressure gradient leads to
strengthening southerly return flow. By Sunday, model soundings
show 35 to 40 mph winds at the top of the mixed layer, so would
expect some fairly gusty winds at times through the weekend,
especially in the open spots. In addition to the southerly flow,
upper level ridging will build in, leading to increasing
temperatures into the beginning of next week. Expect widespread
highs in the 70s by Monday or Tuesday followed by a few lower 80s
on Wednesday.
As far as precipitation chances go, models continue to trend
toward the dry side. A weak surface boundary will approach the
area from the west sometime Sunday into Monday, but guidance is in
good agreement of any associated precipitation dissipating as it
moves in, owing to dry air in the lower levels. Another boundary
looks like it might slide through and bring some rain chances
sometime Wednesday or Thursday per several GEFS members and the
17.00Z ECMWF. However plenty of other guidance remains dry during
that timeframe, so confidence is quite low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds
currently located from South Dakota eastward into western Wisconsin
will gradually slide south tonight, parting way to mostly clear
skies. Some indications that low clouds may spread west from eastern
Wisconsin toward the KLSE airfield on Friday morning, though if they
do they should be scattered in nature. Winds will remain on the
lighter side gradually turning from a northerly direction overnight
to an east-southeast direction by Friday. Some cumulus clouds should
develop by the afternoon hours on Friday with daytime heating.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...NMB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
808 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Upper ridge aloft remains entrenched across the region this
evening. There was some cumulus in the mountains early this
evening but that was about it, and of course along with the smoke
in most areas. There is a weak surge that is moving through the
northeast plains this evening with some enhancement of the
northeast winds behind it. This surge is just now moving into the
northern I-25 corridor. There is a weak pressure rise behind it
through Nebraska. The surge, however may bring in more smoke
later tonight and at least through Friday morning according to
the latest HRRR smoke output. Similar conditions expected on
Friday in terms of temperatures, dryness and smoke.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Dry air within a mid to upper level ridge over the Desert
Southwest has resulted in quiet weather across Colorado today.
Smoke levels have decreased from yesterday with visibilities
about 2 to 4 miles better across the majority of our forecast
area. This has allowed for better solar heating with temperatures
climbing to 5 to 10 degrees above normal highs. The only fire in
Colorado producing substantial smoke is the Middle Fork Fire.
Smoke from this fire will continue to drift east-southeastward
over portions of the northern Front Range Mountains the rest of
today and will do the same thing tomorrow.
Tonight, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal with
skies clearing. The HRRR-smoke model has near-surface smoke
increasing later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Then, with
better southerly low level flow developing tomorrow, the smoke
decreases during midday and into the afternoon following a
similar pattern to today. Haze and areas of smoke were added to
the forecast to account for the continued poor air quality.
Our forecast area will be under the influence of the aforementioned
ridge again tomorrow. Weak lee cyclogenesis will develop just
east of the mountains across Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. This
will increase southerly flow and bring in slightly warmer low
level air. Highs tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today
with highs reaching the upper 80s in Denver. No precipitation is
expected with mostly sunny skies.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Warm, dry and smoky conditions are expected to continue for the
majority of the forecast period.
Forecast period will start with most of Colorado remaining under
the influence of an upper level ridge. A trough centered over
WA/OR will then swing east/northeastward through the day Saturday,
which will shift winds out of the southwest through much of the
day. This will alleviate some of the ongoing smoke/haze over much
of the plains. Lessened smoke, combined with fairly warm mid-level
temperatures (13-14C at 700mb), and at least some downslope
component to the wind will provide the Denver metro with a shot at
hitting 90 during the afternoon. There will also be some weak
synoptic forcing across the northern third of CO as the trough
lifts northeast out of Wyoming during the afternoon/evening, so at
least a few scattered showers/storms expected across the higher
terrain. Gusty winds may also be a concern in the afternoon as
mid-level winds increase.
Overall weather pattern won`t change much for Sunday as flow
stays SW/west through much of the day. Expect another round of
showers/storms for the mountains, with no precipitation expected
for the I-25 corridor and points east. Temperatures will be a
little cooler than Saturday, with highs in the mid 80s for much of
the plains.
A brief period of more zonal flow is expected early next week.
Mid-level moisture will increase slightly which should allow for
somewhat better coverage of storms across the higher terrain
through at least Tuesday. Afterwards, ridging should build back
somewhere over the west coast. While most guidance is in good
agreement that a ridge develops, there is less confidence in the
strength and position of the ridge. Some models suggest potential
for late week temperatures to again reach the upper 80s to perhaps
low 90s, while others are considerably cooler with late week
temperatures. Given the uncertainty this far out, today`s forecast
closely matches the previous forecasts and is near the middle of
the road of guidance. Regardless, highs in the 80s for the plains
will be the theme for the foreseeable future, with no substantial
rainfall chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 759 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Surface winds will be shifting northeast through 04z behind a
weak frontal surge moving in from the northeast. Winds expected to
gradually shift back northwest after midnight and then becoming
light southerly by dawn. This surge may actually bring in more
smoke later tonight and Friday morning with surface visibilities
expected to drop between 5-6sm. Some improvement by Friday
afternoon but still slant wise visibilities with smoke may affect
approaches.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
911 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Updated the evening forecast package to include smoke and haze
through Friday night. HRRR experimental model guidance showing
light to moderate smoke concentrations through Saturday morning
most likely. Remainder of forecast package left the same as
overnight temperatures and dry conditions can still be expected.
Newest development this evening is the Mullen Fire in SE Carbon
County. As of 9pm MDT, it is less than 100 acres, with mostly
dead/down timber in the area surrounding the fire. Continued
weather forecast support in coordination with the U.S. Forestry
service for this developing fire is likely. Satellite imagery that
shows the "hot spots" regarding warmer surface fire temperature
looks like it is has spread the last few hours. Overnight low
temperatures across the forecast area will be chilly with readings
in the 40-50 F range.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Fire weather concerns the issue in the short term. Stronger winds
are an issue for Saturday as well.
Currently...Low pressure system analyzed east northeast of Chadron
in southwestern South Dakota this afternoon. Front has migrated
east into northeastern Wyoming and west central Nebraska this
afternoon. Surface high over western Colorado through western
Wyoming. Smoky conditions continue over much of the area as upper
high pressure system remains over the Rockies...with smoke from
western wildfires moving in on the northern periphery of this
ridge. An AQA for poor air quality has been continued today
through noon across southeast Wyoming with a Special Weather
Statement for the Panhandle.
For Friday...Southwest winds return to Carbon County. Very similar
to this past Tuesday when we hit RFW criteria for some areas of
Carbon County. Seeing 20-25kts of wind mixing down from the GFS
Rawlins sounding. In fact...the winds look a little stronger than
this past Tuesday...so decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for
northwest and southwest Carbon County.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
GFS continues to show a strong low pressure system moving into
western Montana Saturday. This is a very favorable pattern for
winds in southeast Wyoming. GFS 700mb winds increase to 35-40kts
across Carbon County Saturday afternoon. GFS soundings showing the
possibility of 45-50kts mixing down from 575mbs...so would not be
surprised to see some of our WYDOT sites hit high wind warning
criteria. Will address that tomorrow if later model runs continue
to show this.
Much cooler temperatures Saturday night into Sunday as 700mb
temperatures fall to around 5C behind the associated front. Much
cooler temperatures Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s. A windy
day Sunday with 700mb winds still 35-40kts. Model guidance on
winds way underdone...so had to manually raise wind substantially
on the order of 10-15 mph to catch these stronger winds.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 555 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Haze and smoke will continue to be the primary concern for Aviation
over the next 24 to 36 hours. Hi Res guidance shows limited VIS
between 3 to 6 miles across most of southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska through 18z Friday, but likely will continue through the
afternoon hours. Winds will be relatively light and veer and
gradually veer into the south overnight.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Frequent MVFR VIS due to haze and smoke.
Some improvement possible after 09z tonight, but not expecting much
improvement in VIS, which will hover around 6 miles.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Critical fire weather conditions expected Friday and Saturday
across portions of southeast Wyoming. Starting off
Friday...southwest winds return to Carbon County with gusty
southwest winds Friday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been
issued for FWZ 303 and 304 for Friday afternoon. A strong low
pressure system tracks into western Montana Saturday...a very
favorable pattern for strong winds across southeast Wyoming. Could
see wind gusts of 40-50 mph across areas west of the Laramie
Range Saturday. Some of these winds spill out into areas east of
the Laramie range Saturday. So FWZ 310 was added to the Fire
Weather Watch Saturday. Associated cold front with the low moves
through Saturday night for cooler temperatures...higher humidity
and low chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for WYZ301>310.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for WYZ303-304.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BW
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
626 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
...Updated for 00z Aviation...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Cool Canadian high pressure is currently centered over Manitoba with
surface ridging south into the Midwest. This has led to cool
northerly flow funneling into Iowa today with highs in the low 60s
north to low 70s south. A fairly dense area of smoke has moved
across the western half of Iowa this afternoon and is probably dense
enough to filter enough solar energy to shave a few degrees off of
highs today. Cool conditions again tonight though a region of mid-
level clouds situated around 8 kft, will drift south out of
Minnesota and should provide enough of a blanket to limit
radiational cooling, despite likely holes in the cloud cover.
Similar conditions like today are expected on Friday with a few more
clouds but less smoke cover while the high pressure system settles
into the eastern Great Lakes. The initial stages of warm advection
will arrive on Saturday as the high begins its very slow move east
and upper ridging approaches from the west. Breezy southerly winds
with gusts over 25 mph are likely. In addition, the upper level
transition to ridging will bring another dense layer of smoke over
Iowa which could again impact temperatures by a few degrees despite
the deeper mixing. The latest HRRR smoke simulations keep the smoke
aloft as it passes across Iowa therefore, air quality impacts appear
low.
An upper low moving across the Pacific Northwest and into
Saskatchewan and Manitoba this weekend will push the upper ridging
east and will be replaced by warm westerly flow. As this occurs, the
eastern surface high will dive south along the Appalachians leaving
broad southerly surface flow across Iowa through much of next week.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the 70s Sunday and into the
low to mid 80s by mid next week. The orientation of the upper flow
next week should push much of the smoke north of the state therefore
should not have much impact on temperatures. A potential cool down
towards the end of next week with ridging over the western CONUS
buckling the westerly flow and leading to northwest flow into the
Upper Midwest. At this time, the lone chance for precipitation is
over far northern Iowa Sunday night as the upper low passes to the
north and it is a very slight chance.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period with winds
transitioning from northeasterly to easterly on Friday morning.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Hagenhoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
807 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update:
The going forecast appears to be on track. Overnight temperatures
may be a little cooler than models suggest with haze increasing
slightly this evening under clear cloud cover overnight and light
winds near the surface. Roxy
Previous Discussion:
Upper ridging will remain in place across the
western U.S. extending into eastern Montana with northwest flow
aloft. This will keep the thickest vertically integrated smoke and
most concentrated surface smoke southwest of the CWA per latest
HRRR guidance. That said, hazy sky conditions will likely continue
over the next couple days.
A Pacific trough will translate east toward the region with
increasing chances for rain showers with isolated thunder Saturday
night into Sunday. Wetting rains remain possible for portions of
the area, especially near the Canadian border per latest ensemble
means.
The trough looks to lift northeast for the middle of the week with
a return to more of a ridge pattern and drier weather conditions.
Given increasing uncertainties at larger time scales, have kept
closer to the consensus blends for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: Dry conditions and light winds continue. Smoke and
haze from western wildfires continues across the area. Conditions
should remain at VFR, though slight visibility reductions are
possible at times this evening.
WINDS: Light and variable Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning. A nocturnal, light easterly wind may set up overnight
into the early morning at GGW.
RMB/Roxy
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
459 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Widespread smoke from regional wildfires will
continue to impact the central California interior. Increasing
southwest winds on Friday will bring gusty conditions over the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. A few showers are possible
over the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills late tonight and
Friday. Temperatures will cool to below normal levels Friday and
Saturday then warm back to above normal early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The large four corners ridge which had provided our
area with above normal temperatures for the past several days, is
now breaking down as a strong upper level low pressure system
approaches the PAC NW coast and carves out a trough off the
western CONUS coast. A southwesterly flow ahead of the trough has
picked up some upper level moisture from the remains of former
Tropical Storm Karina and has spread it over central CA today. The
increased cloud cover has resulted a temperatures cooling
slightly from yesterday at most locations in our area.
Meanwhile, smoke from nearby wildfires continues to reduce
visibility across our area. However, as the trough moves inland
and crosses CA on Friday, winds will pick up and the cooler air
aloft will allow for some mixing to take place and will help
significantly reduce the smoke presence. While the HRRR suggests
that the winds will not be overly strong when they pick up on
Friday, they might impact the large fires in the Sierra Nevada and
might result in a period of increased spread during the afternoon
and evening. This system will also bring cooler air into our area
with temperatures expected to lower to below normal levels on
Friday. The mid/upper level moisture from the remains of Karina
could also produce some sprinkles or a few light showers in our
area on Friday with the best chances over the higher elevations of
the Sierra Nevada.
The cooler airmass behind the trough will settle into our area on
Friday night and Saturday which will result in cooler than normal
temperatures and better overnight humidity recovery by Friday
night.
The models are in good agreement with building a flat ridge into
our area on Sunday and Monday which will bring a warming trend to
our area as temperatures recover to near normal on Sunday and
rise slightly above normal on Monday. The warming trend will be
short lived as a PAC shortwave pushes through the PAC NW on
Tuesday.
A stronger ridge is progged to build into CA next Wednesday and
Thursday which will bring another slight warming trend to our
area. Following the passage of the trough on Friday, dry weather
is expected to prevail across our area from Friday night until at
least next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly MVFR visibility with areas of IFR visibility
due to smoke in the San Joaquin Valley and in the foothills and
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada during the next 24 hours.
The Tehachapi Mountains and Kern County Desert areas will have
local MVFR visibility due to smoke during the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert
On Friday September 18 2020... Unhealthy in Fresno... Kern...
Madera and Tulare Counties. Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Kings and Merced Counties. Very unhealthy in Sequoia National Park
and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public...DS
aviation....DS
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
821 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
High pressure dominating the Upper Mississippi Valley will
gradually move southeast over the next few days bringing dry and
cooler temperatures into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
No update required this evening.
High pressure continues to build into Illinois. KCMI and KDNV
have gusted a bit during the last hour, but as boundary layer
decouples, winds should lose their variability.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Band of lower level stratocumulus continues to shift south of I-72
early this afternoon, while clouds north of there show a decidedly
diurnal pattern. Larger picture continues to show a widespread
smoke plume overhead back into the Pacific Northwest. 12Z HRRR
vertically integrated smoke plot shows this plume pushing south
of our area on Friday, as the broad upper trough over the Great
Lakes digs southward, bringing a temporary end to the hazy skies.
Breezy northeast winds are expected into Friday, steadily
bringing in drier air. This will allow most areas to dip below 50
degrees overnight, and remain below 70 degrees on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
The coldest conditions in this period are expected Friday night,
with widespread lower 40s. Would not be surprised to see a few
upper 30s sneaking in, especially north of I-74. While
temperatures slowly recover during the weekend, lows in the 40s
are likely into early next week. After that, the upper pattern
becomes less clear. The GFS tends to build more of a warm ridge
over the Plains, while the European model continues to advertise a
very deep trough/low digging across the Midwest late Thursday
night and significantly cooler temperatures. A couple tropical
systems have the potential to make things murkier as well in
terms of pattern shifting. Right now, only the European model is
showing any rain potential, and that would not be until Thursday
with the trough. With these variables, will keep the forecast dry
for now, with warmer conditions moving in for mid week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
High pressure should dominate the terminals this TAF period.
Northeast winds may gust at times by late morning Friday at the
eastern terminals where the gradient ahead of the high is
sufficient to produce gusts to 15-20 kts at times.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SYNOPSIS...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barker
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a closed low
over eastern portions of Hudson Bay. A trough extended south of this
feature into the eastern Great Lakes. Further west, high pressure
was anchored over southern California with a ridge extending north
into southeastern British Columbia. West of this ridge axis, closed
low pressure remained anchored off the coast of Oregon and has
remained there over the past 24 hours. A trough of low pressure
extended south of this low into the eastern Pacific-off the coast of
northern California. Across the eastern CONUS, a decent shortwave
was noted over northeastern Texas. East of this feature, the
remnants of Hurricane Sally were located over northern Georgia. At
the surface, low pressure was located over south central South
Dakota. A warm front extended south of the low into the western
Nebraska Sandhills, then south along the Kansas/Colorado border.
This feature continue to slowly migrate east this afternoon, is the
delineation between southerly and southeasterly winds east of the
front and westerly winds to the west of the front. Once again, an
abundance of elevated smoke, has led to hazy skies across the
forecast area this afternoon. Visibilities were generally above 6
miles across the area, with some slightly lower visibilities noted
in the panhandle and far western areas. Afternoon temperatures as of
2 PM CDT ranged from 71 at O`Neill to 79 at Valentine.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Elevated smoke conditions and its effect on temperatures will be
the main forecast challenge in the near term. Over the next 36
hours, the upper level trough of low pressure, currently off the
Oregon coast, will come onshore Friday afternoon, migrating into
central Washington and Oregon by Saturday morning. Downstream of
this feature, ridging will build east to the Rockies. Not
expecting much in the way of clouds with the ridge building into
the central CONUS, however skies will continue to be hazy and
smoky aloft, a result of fires in the western CONUS. Over the past
couple of days, have good luck utilizing the HRRR smoke forecast
by utilizing the Near Surface Smoke and 1FT AGL smoke products for
surface smoke and Vertically Integrated Smoke for mid and high
altitude smoke. That being said, based on the 12z forecast from
this morning, near surface smoke should dissipate and shift west
of the area tonight, keeping the area surface smoke free Friday
into Friday night. As for smoke aloft, it will continue to remain
in place over the next 36 hours. With that in mind, will continue
to mention haze in the forecast mainly during the daytime hours.
Will plan on modifying temps down some for Friday given the layer
of expected haze.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Ridging will build east onto the plains Saturday with a bubble of
warmer air pushing east. Highs Saturday will reach into the 80s
and may approach 90 in the southwest. Late Saturday, a mid level
trough of low pressure will track across southwestern Canada,
dragging a trough through eastern Montana and northeastern
Wyoming, into the western Dakotas. The base of this trough will
track across northern Nebraska Saturday night, leading to an
increased threat for thunderstorms. ATTM, not expecting much in
the way of precipitation with this trough as boundary layer
moisture continues to be very limited. A secondary threat for
precipitation will arrive Sunday night, as an area of mid level
frontogenesis and warm air advection over spreads the forecast
area. The current forecast has this handled well and no changes
will be made to the inherited forecast. Beyond Sunday night, a low
amplitude ridge will build back into the central CONUS. This will
lead to warmer than normal temps and mainly dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
VFR conditions will continue across much of western Nebraska with
mostly clear skies expect for elevated haze impacting portions of
the area. Favored areas will be northwest of a surface boundary
expected to set up along an Ogallala to Ainsworth line overnight.
This will lead to continued low-end visibility reductions at VTN
until the frontal boundary shifts out of the area early Friday
morning. Breezy winds are then expected to develop with gusts out
of the southeast up to 20 mph possible Friday afternoon across
north central Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Jurgensen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
324 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Widespread haze and areas of smoke from regional
wildfires will continue to impact northern and central Nevada.
A cold front will move across Nevada on Friday bringing cloud
cover, gusty winds, and the chance of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Quiet and cooler weather will follow
over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Thursday evening through Saturday.
Widespread haze and areas of smoke will contiue to impact
northern and central NV tonight and Friday as indicated by
HRRR smoke model. Satellite imagery shows plume of mid/high-
level subtropical moisture is streaming northeastward from off
the coast of central CA into western NV. This moisture will
steadily increase ahead of a Pacific trough that will slowly
move into the Northwest CONUS as a surface cold front works its
way east across NV Friday afternoon and evening. Critical winds
and low RH will exisit ahead of the front in White Pine and
northern Nye County where a RFW is in effect. Cloud cover and
smoke may serve to reduce daytime mixing elsewhere in central and
northern Nevada so winds should not be quite as strong and gusty
except in the higher terrain.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop with
the strong influx of moisture Friday afternoon and evening though
instability will be very weak and elevated. Storms could start
out dry before transitioning to becoming marginally wet.
Temperatures will cool with the FROPA as daytime highs slip into
the 70s and 80s Friday and 60s and 70s by Saturday. Overall,
quiet weather and more seasonal temperatures will return for the
weekend. There will remain a slight chance of a lingering shower
developing in far northern/eastern Elko and eastern White Pine
counties Saturday before moisture lifts entirely out of the state.
.LONG TERM...Saturday evening through Thursday Evening.
Post-frontal clear skies Saturday evening will lead to Sunday
pre-dawn temperatures likely in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s, with
some cooler spots in the valleys. Daytime temperatures are then
expected to rebound for the beginning of the week, leading to
temperatures some 5-10 degrees above average for this time of
year. Upper ridge Thursday could have a 590 decameter center with
near record highs in places. Big caveat is how much smoke? SW flow
is expected through much of the week which will lead to areas of
smoke and haze. Latest guidance suggests there may be areas of
isolated dry thunderstorms in eastern NV Monday. Beyond Monday
looks quiet with continued areas of smoke. Some model disagreement
on Tuesday`s sensible weather: could have dry or could have
isolated eastern Nevada storms. Holding off for now.
&&
AVIATION...Smoke. Heat. Gusty afternoons. Visibility MVFR at KWMC
and potentially KBAM. Reduced at KEKO but not below P6SM. KELY and
KTPH also noticeably smoky but not restricted. Slant visibility
will be reduced at all sites and en route. Some mountain
partially obscured in northwest Nevada. Density altitudes higher
than normal for the date.
Outlook for the upcoming week: Smoke. Heat. Gusty afternoons.
Monday afternoon and evening may see isolated thunderstorms and
virga buildups in eastern Nevada. Higher than normal density
altitudes continue after cooling off for the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning for winds and low RH for FWZs 425, 426, and 427
from 11am until 8pm PDT Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions
will exist this Thursday afternoon and early evening as min RHs
will be critically low at 5 to 10 percent, but afternoon breezes
generally remain below criteria. Cold front moves across Nevada
Friday afternoon and evening with a surge of mid-level subtropical
moisture along the front that will produce scattered showers
along with a mix of dry and marginally wet isolated thunderstorms
that could produce a few lightning strikes. This will cause min
RHs on Friday to rise above critical levels in all areas but FWZs
425, 426, and 427 where values will generally remain from 8 to 14
percent with pre-frontal southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph.
Elsewhere, cloud cover and smoke should reduce the amount of
daytime mixing and therefore the gustiness of the winds.
Quieter weather with more seasonable temperatures and lighter
afternoon breezes can be expected over the weeknd.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for Central
Nevada-Toiyabe-Northern Nye County-Mojave-White Pine and
Northeast Nye Counties.
&&
$$
95/91/96/95
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
736 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2020
Latest RAP analysis indicate a mid/upper level low, seen at 500mb,
near the east side of Hudson Bay resulting in broad cyclonic
westerly flow through eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. Sfc
ridging has extended from Manitoba into the Upper Mississippi
Valley, bringing anticyclonic northerly flow across Lake Superior.
850 mb temps are around -1C which will limit highs this afternoon in
low to mid 50s. A bkn cu field has developed but given drier airmass
with high pressure building in and northerly flow, leaning towards
keeping it generally mostly sunny with these clouds slowly filtering
out.
A pretty chilly night is ahead across Upper Michigan. With mostly
clear skies, light winds, and high pressure in firm control over the
region, temps should drop to around or below freezing for most
inland locations with widespread frost likely. With that, have
decided to issue a Freeze Warning for the entire cwa in coordination
with neighboring offices as temps will range from the mid 20s to low
30s. Wouldn`t surprise me if a few spots dipped into the low 20s.
Temps Friday will be similar to today with 50s across Upper Michigan
with mostly sunny skies expected again.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2020
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Pacific NW 00z
Sat with a ridge over the Rockies and a broad trough over the ern
half of the U.S. The ridge moves into the plains 00z Sun with the
trough in the northern Rockies. The ridge then moves into the upper
Great Lakes 00z Mon with the trough in the northern plains. Pretty
quiet weather for this forecast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the
northern plains 12z Mon with ridging in the lower Great Lakes. This
troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Troughing moves
into the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves through the
upper Great Lakes 12z Thu with a sfc cold front moving through.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast
period and will be fairly quiet.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 734 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2020
With high pressure settling across the area, expect VFR conditions
at all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will generally remain
light with lake breezes developing during the day on Friday.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 245 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2020
High pressure settling in over the region today bringing nw winds
generally below 15 knots except over the eastern half of the lake
where gusts could get up to 20 knots through early Friday morning.
Winds will fall back below 15 knots through Saturday before turning
more southerly and increasing with gusts between 20-25 knots on
Sunday as the lake will be in between high pressure just off to the
east and low pressure to the west. This will continue into early
next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 10 AM
EDT /9 AM CDT/ Friday for MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JH