Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/17/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A backdoor cold
will continue to spill into the gaps of the central mountain chains
this evening. Gusty east to northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots
will occur, including at KABQ and KSAF. Gusts at KABQ are expected to
remain below Airport Weather Warning Criteria. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will remain across southeast NM this evening before
tapering off by dark. Gusty and erratic winds will be the main threat
with an outflow boundary possibly impacting KROW, but chances for an
actual shower or thundershower is low.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...216 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front is moving southwest across the Land of
Enchantment and will result in gusty east canyon winds this evening
and overnight into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. The
front will provide several degrees of cooling going into Thursday,
mainly to central and eastern portions of the state. A Pacific trough
will pass to the north of the state this weekend, bringing breezy
conditions and a slight chance for showers or storms to the northern
mountains and locales closer to the Colorado border. Expect a
warming trend early next week as high pressure restrengthens over the
region, with above normal temperatures areawide.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
With an upper-level ridge building across the desert southwest,
drier air continues to filter into the state as evident by dewpoints
in the 20`s and 30`s across most of the area. The exception is
across far southeast NM which is still holding on to some low-level
moisture. In addition, satellite imagery this afternoon is noting a
weak disturbance over far southeast NM/west TX. This disturbance
will help spark a few showers and storms across far southern Chaves
County through this evening, but the HREF and HRRR keep the bulk of
the activity in Eddy and Lea counties. Given how far south the
disturbance is as well as the lack of deep moisture, this makes
sense. Any storms that do form will be more likely to have gusty and
erratic winds rather than any measurable rainfall. Additionally, a
backdoor cold front is currently moving through east central NM and
is expected to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain
this evening. East canyon winds of 30 to 35 mph can be expected in
the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas before winds taper off after
midnight.
The aforementioned disturbance is pushed into central TX on Thursday
as the ridge continues to build over the desert SW. This will keep
dry conditions in the forecast. Despite heights rising slightly over
the state, temperatures will cool a few degrees for most thanks to
today`s backdoor cold front.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A 590dam 500mb high will be directly over our area Friday as a quiet
weather period persists with daytime temperatures generally at or
slightly above normal. The upper high will shift south of our area
Saturday as a Pacific trough/low zips east across the central and
northern Rockies. This will cause a lee side trough to deepen and
lead to breezy to locally windy conditions late Saturday. In
addition, moisture working around and under the upper high
circulation will fuel a round of late day isolated showers and
storms, mainly across the western and northern high terrain. Expect a
renewed warming trend beginning Sunday as pressure heights come back
up some with weak ridging aloft. Daytime temperatures will be back
above normal areawide by Monday. A shortwave trough being depicted by
the 12Z ECMWF and GFS for Tuesday may lead to an uptick in convection
across northern New Mexico, but otherwise weather will remain
tranquil. The next big change may not arrive until the last week in
September when the upper high is forecast to weaken and give way to a
potent Pacific trough/low, currently modeled to hit the west coast
September 25-26th.
11/15
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A gusty backdoor cold front is currently moving through east central
NM. Dry conditions are expected behind the front, but gusts of 30 to
35 mph can be expected across the east with the east canyon wind
developing in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas this evening. Those
gusts will taper off by midnight, and dry weather is expected over
the area again on Thursday as an area of high pressure builds over
the desert southwest. Temperatures will be near September normals
although a few degrees cooler compared to today`s readings. As a
storm system tracks across the northern Rockies this weekend, the
area of high pressure will weaken and be shifted into southern NM.
This will allow southeasterly flow to set up over eastern NM this
weekend. Most areas will continue to remain dry, however, but
isolated storms will be possible across the northern high terrain
through Sunday. Wetting precipitation is not expected. Another weak
disturbance may allow for better chances for storms across western
and northern NM Monday and through the middle of next week.
15
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
622 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Cumulus field has engulfed the eastern half of the CWA but CIGS have
been mixing upwards efficiently and with loss of daytime heating
late this afternoon should dissipate for the most part. A subtle
weak impulse in northwest flow will result in some cloud cover in
the morning, however the main impactor to the temperature forecast
will be the persistent high haze that the HRRR shows will again
thicken up for Thursday. Low level flow becomes more easterly but
we`re essentially stuck with the same airmass.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
During the extended portion of the forecast, current ensemble and
deterministic model progs agree that surface temperatures will warm
from "seasonal" to "down-right hot" for mid to late September. Of
course, the caveat there being what role suspended smoke particles
aloft will play towards insolation/heating potential during the
period.
As far as the latest available model data, regarding precipitation
chances, it doesn`t look good for meaningful/measurable rainfall
anytime soon. Dry northwest flow aloft starts the period. Then, an
upper level ridge builds into the region Saturday/Saturday night,
with an upper level longwave trof chasing it into the northern
plains Sunday/Monday. Some isolated/scattered showers/storms may be
possible by Sunday night as energy lifting out of the longwave trof
pushes a frontal boundary across the CWA. Any precipitation
potential is quickly taken back off the table early next week as the
upper jet steering flow transitions briefly into more of a zonal
pattern aloft. Whether or not the northern plains region will see
one more mid-level shortwave impulse work through mid-week before
mid/upper level heights begin rising over the country`s mid-section,
remains up for grabs. At this point, mid-level waa does not appear
too over-powering for convective development, and models do reflect
that some sort of surface troffing/low pressure will be around.
Perhaps timing (time of day) and low level moisture availability
remain the largest unknowns in the equation at this time. Beyond
that, models prog rather hot air (surface through 700hpa) to advect
into the region underneath this rebuilding upper level ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.AVIATION...00z TAF Cycle...
VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light northerly
winds will gradually become more easterly through the day
Thursday.
Ward
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/
DISCUSSION...This Afternoon through Tuesday Night...
Current WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the Great Basin,
Hurricane Sally over southern AL, and, in the interim, an area of
weak troughing aloft stretching from far W TX northeastward to MO
leading to northeasterly flow aloft over the CWA. At the surface,
broad area of high pressure centered over SK/MB is building
southward, with a weak cold front pushing into N KS.
Main concern in the immediate term is the very, very small potential
for convection this afternoon and evening as weak perturbations in
the northeasterly flow aloft translate over the forecast area.
Latest model soundings from NAM/RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM suggest very skinny
instability profiles with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the
SE TX Panhandle while the GFS indicates we will be completely
capped. Outlier of concern in the other direction is the GEM
regional, which depicts 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the SE TX
Panhandle. With this solution being an outlier, coupled with the
almost precip free nature of every HRRR and RAP run from this
morning and afternoon, will add some 5 PoPs to our southeast but
keep mentions of precipitation out of the forecast.
Thursday, expect the aforementioned surface high to edge southward
into KS and N OK. Resulting upslope easterly winds should moderate
our temperatures for another day. As for precipitation, expect the
weak upper trough to finally slide southeast, with modest large
scale height rises expected as result. Have thus gone with 0 PoPs
Thursday and Thursday night.
Friday and Saturday look to feature northwesterly flow aloft,
occasionally a harbinger of evening convection. However, with the
Great Basin ridge heading south over the Four Corners and far W TX
during this time period and northeasterly 850mb flow over C TX,
expect a noted lack of moisture in the low and mid-levels. Have thus
continued with the dry forecast.
Sunday through Tuesday should herald a return to zonal flow aloft as
the upper ridge sets up to our south. Resumption of cross-barrier
flow to our northwest will result in lee surface troughing across E
CO, leading to southwesterly winds across the Panhandles. Afternoon
highs will trend upward accordingly, with highs in the upper 80s and
perhaps a return to the 90s by Tuesday. While mid level moisture
from the E Pacific may sneak northeastward and become marginally
supportive of convective initiation on the higher elevations to our
west, expect lack of low level moisture over the Panhandles to keep
any approaching showers and storms from persisting into the CWA.
Ferguson
AVIATION...18Z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected through the period at all TAF sites.
Winds, initially out of the northeast this afternoon, should
become light and variable overnight. Very, very small chance for
showers and perhaps thunder at AMA late this afternoon and this
evening, far too low for a mention of anything other than cumulus
at or around 5 kft during this time period.
Ferguson
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
7/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1058 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Another fairly quiet day across the region, with early afternoon
analysis showing a cold front stretching from southeast Wisconsin
to Kansas. As the cold front advanced southeastward, smoke was
gradually clearing out behind it. The experimental HRRR does
suggest a slight increase in near surface smoke heading into this
evening, but surface obs don`t indicate any associated visibility
reductions, so there must not be much actually making the surface.
Still, you may smell smoke at times heading into this evening,
but doesn`t seem to be much of an air quality concern.
Expect clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s and 40s,
with perhaps a little frost forming in far northern portions of
the forecast area. Therefore, a Frost Advisory is in effect for
Taylor County. For Thursday, high pressure will continue building
in and lead to a very quiet, but cooler day, with highs in the 50s
and 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
The long term period is still looking pretty quiet with a couple
nights of frost concerns and only occasional small rain chances.
Cool high pressure will remain in place over the forecast through
Saturday with highs in the 50s an 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.
Thursday night looks to be the coldest night, as areas near and
north of I-94 drop at least close to freezing, so would expect
another Frost Advisory that night. As far as precip chances go,
guidance had been indicating the potential for some light rain
grazing southwestern portions of the forecast area, owing to some
weak shortwave energy and isentropic ascent. However, trends
suggest that it will stay out of the forecast area. Even if it
does pan out, model soundings suggest difficulty in saturating
deep enough for precipitation. A similar situation occurs on
Saturday. Really wouldn`t expect much more than some increased
cloud cover and maybe a couple sprinkles if the best forcing moves
over the forecast area.
High pressure pushes off to the east Saturday night/Sunday with a
tightening pressure gradient setting up during the day Sunday.
Southerly winds could be a bit breezy at times with model
soundings suggesting 35-40 mph at the top of the mixed layer. Said
southerly winds will also start ushering warmer, more moist air
ahead of weak boundary progged to slide through sometime Monday,
though latest trends show any associated precip really tapering
off before it moves into the forecast area. Southerly winds look
to persist into the beginning of next week, with high temperatures
getting back up into the 70s to near 80 in a few spots as upper
level ridging builds in.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few clouds fl050 should
remain mostly east of the TAF sites through Thursday. Surface
high pressure was building in across Minnesota with light winds
mostly less than 10kts. The smoke has abated, however will
return Thursday as it is already pushing into parts of western
Minnesota again.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ017.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Only change for late evening update was to adjust cloud cover
towards current trends. Otherwise, going forecast is working just
fine.
UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Main change for early evening update was to increase cloud cover a
bit over the north central and northwest. Otherwise, going
forecast remains in good shape. Will be keeping an eye on the
southwest through the evening, as smoke may need to be added if
visibility consistently starts dropping.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Quiet in the short term period with some smoke and haze.
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over southeast
Saskatchewan int western ND. Light winds across western and
central ND with some scattered diurnal strato-cumulus and a few
passing mid and high level clouds.
The Latest GOES16 ABI BAND #1, used for monitoring smoke and
haze, indicates smoke/haze remaining over a good portion of
western and south central ND. The 12Z HRRR Smoke models shows
smoke near the surface and aloft undulates a bit and varies in
intensity but pretty much remains over the northwest half of the
forecast area through 48Hrs. Therefore we added a mention of haze
through this period. Whether the smoke gets thick enough to be
detected at the surface remains to be seen, but if so, the most
likely area would be the far southwest (Beach and Bowman to
Dickinson and Hettinger). Last night visibilities never did drop
below 6 miles, so for now we will leave out the smoke and later
shifts can throw it in if visibilities start to drop.
Besides the smoke, a pretty quiet forecast. Dry tonight and
Thursday with seasonably cool temperatures. Lows tonight in the
mid 30s to mid 40s and highs Thursday in the lower 60s east to
lower 70s west.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
A northwest upper flow pattern continues through Friday with
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. A progressive
shortwave ridge tracks across the forecast area Friday night
through Saturday with an increasing south to southeast return
flow, ahead of a closed upper low. However Gulf moisture remains
cutoff so it doesn`t look like a big return of moisture to the
area. It will be breezy and warmer over the weekend, with hit and
miss (more miss than hit) chances of showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm. The closed 50H low tracks from north
central Montana Saturday night to southeast Saskatchewan Sunday
night bringing the best (relative term) chances (around 30-40
percent) Saturday night into Sunday, with some lingering slight
chance pops in the north Sunday night.
Seasonably mild and dry Monday and Tuesday with a cold front
passing through the area on Wednesday, bringing slightly cooler
temperatures and a small chance of a shower.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Visibility restrictions to MVFR levels may be possible over
southwest North Dakota tonight if smoke aloft makes it down to the
surface. Will monitor through the evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1003 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the area late tonight, cross the
area on Thursday then exit across the Gulf of Maine Thursday
night. High pressure will slowly build east across the region
Friday through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM Update...
The first lead of showers ahead of the cold front looks like
they will break up as they move ese overnight w/the best lift
and moisture running into Canada. The NAM12 and RAP continue to
show this setup as does the latest HRRR. Adjustments were made
to the sky and pops to back up the timing of clouds and showers.
Llvl jet is pushing through the region attm per 00Z UA and
winds will start to drop back in a few hrs. Temps slowly cooling
down this evening and this slow cooling will continue
overnight. Daycrew`s temperature forecast holding quite well
attm.
Previous Discussion...
The cold front will arrive in the St John Valley late tonight
and slowly sweep southward during Thursday. In spite of the
strong thermal contrast with this front, there`s no much lift or
moisture. Rainfall will amount to just a few hundredths of an
inch and the trend continues downward. Since the front will
cross northern zones early, highs will only reach the low 50s in
far northern Aroostook County. On the other hand, some sunshine
ahead of the front will propel highs into the low 70s for
Bangor and interior Downeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move slowly south across the Gulf of Maine
Thursday night while a weak low moves along the front. High pressure
will then begin to ridge east across the forecast area overnight.
Expect mostly clear skies across northern portions of the forecast
area Thursday night, with decreasing clouds across central areas.
Could still have a chance of showers across Downeast areas early
Thursday night, with decreasing shower chances overnight. Otherwise,
expect mostly cloudy skies across interior Downeast areas early with
clouds then decreasing overnight. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
along the Downeast coast Thursday night. With mostly clear or
clearing skies and light winds, expect favorable conditions for
radiational cooling across northern portions of the forecast area
Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch for northern portions of
the forecast area Thursday night where frost and freezing
temperatures are expected. High pressure will ridge across the
forecast area Friday. Across northern areas, expect a mostly sunny
morning then a partly sunny afternoon with diurnal cloud
development. Clouds will decrease across central and Downeast
portions of the forecast area Friday. At the surface, high
pressure centered across the Great Lakes will ridge across the
region Friday night through Saturday. Aloft, an upper level
disturbance will track north of Maine Friday night/Saturday.
Generally expect partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear
Downeast, Friday night through Saturday. Frost and freezing
temperatures are expected again across northern areas Friday
night, though cloud cover could impact temperatures. Patchy
frost is also possible across central and interior Downeast
areas Friday night. Temperatures will be at below normal levels
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool weather with a frost & freeze potential continues through
Tuesday morning. Elongated surface high pressure will remain
locked over the area through Tuesday and most models are in
agreement with this, but there is an exception late in the
period. High pressure in place means we can expect generally
fair weather conditions during this timeframe. Sunday morning
will be a chilly one with temps in the 20s across North Woods to
Upper 30s Downeast. Mainly sunny day across the CWA on Sunday
provides some rebound but temps struggle to the upper 50s to low
60s. Monday starts chilly again with the potential of frost &
freeze but highs will return to near normal with low to mid 60s.
Tuesday the operational ECMWF continues to be the outlier model
suggesting a trough digging south over the northeast that
captures Teddy and pulls the moisture northward. Given the
majority of guidance not showing this solution we have opted to
keep pops low across the far eastern forecast area. We will
continue to watch the long range model trends with this
potential system.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue into the evening with
LLWS a threat at all sites. Winds at FL020 may reach up to 60 kt
this evening at FVE. A cold front will slide south into the
area late tonight and cross the area Thursday. The front itself
may produce tempo MVFR cigs with a few showers. Ahead of the
front, southern terminals such as BGR, BHB, and HUL may
experience MVFR tempo IFR cigs late tonight into Thursday
morning as moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of Maine.
SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR conditions across central and northern areas.
Occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast, mostly early.
Friday...VFR.
Friday night through Monday...Generally VFR. However, variable
conditions with any mostly valley fog each night.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The strong southwest winds will continue through the
night and will leave the Small Craft Advisory in place through
early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will diminish during
Thursday. Seas will continue to build into the night with some 8
ft seas offshore.
SHORT TERM: Wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels
later Thursday night through early Friday, then again Friday
night into early Saturday. Will have a chance of showers
Thursday night, mostly early.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
830 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Convection has waned across much of S TX this evening except
across the Brush Country where a line of strong thunderstorms is
tracking to he east-southeast. The HRRR progs this convection to
also diminish over the next couple of hours. A second upper level
short wave is expected to move across S TX later tonight into Thu
bringing another round of convection. Have tweaked the pops to
show diminishing precip through 06Z then increasing once again
toward early Thu morning. Also tweaked winds, temps and dewpoints
based on latest observations.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.
AVIATION...
Scattered convection is expected throughout the TAF period. Even
so, expect VFR conditions to prevail. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in and around thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Scattered convection has formed multiple boundaries for additional
convection to form on late this afternoon over much of the region.
This activity should linger into the evening hours over the
coastal plains into the southern Brush Country. Activity will
diminish a little bit by late this evening.
The mid to upper level trough from west Texas to northern Mexico
will move eastward into northwest Texas to Edwards Plateau early
Thursday morning and be located over central to south Texas
Thursday night. An upper level jet streak will move northeast
into east and southeast Texas late tonight, placing the right
entrance region of the jet over the coastal plains. Expect
convection will reform in low level convergence zone along
the coast overnight.
Upper level divergence is expected to increase further over
the region on Thursday as the upper trough approaches from
the west. High moisture will remain over most of south Texas
with PWAT values slightly above 2 inches. Could see some locally
heavy rainfall amounts with storms capable of producing 2 inch
per hour rain rates. WPC has region in a Marginal risk for
excessive rainfall. Will go with likely PoPs across the region
Thursday. Convective activity should decrease from west to east
during Thursday night as the upper trough moves over the area.
Elevated tides persist this afternoon along the Middle Texas with
tide levels from 2.1 to 2.4 feet MSL. Water levels are increasing
in the bays as well. Bay level is near 2 feet at the USS Lexington
in Corpus Christi Bay, while it is slightly above 1.5 feet at
Rockport. Expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory in the coastal
portions of San Patricio south to Kleberg to cover this minor
flooding that could be affecting beaches around Corpus Christi Bay
down to the Laguna Madre, and extended the advisory until 8 PM.
The Coastal Flood Advisory will likely need to be re-issued for
the next high tide cycle.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The mid/upper level trough will persist over the area through the
end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day during the work week with PWATs near 2
inches and moderate instability. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Thursday and Friday as a 500 mb vort max
approaches the area. Drier conditions (PWATs lowering to near 0.8
inches) will move into the area as a high pressure begins to creep
into the area for the weekend, though isolated showers will continue
to be possible, mainly in the afternoons.
Models continue to struggle with the development of an area of low
pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC continues to monitor this and
have a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 5
days. With the difference in models solutions, the forecast becomes
unclear. The ECMWF remains relatively dry (PWATs around 1.2 inches)
while the GFS returns deep moisture to the area (PWATs near 2.4
inches). Have decided to lean on the NBM for PoPs, as it seems to be
a good middle of the road solution. This leaves the highest PoPs
over the waters and along the coast and keeps only isolated
convection over the rest of the area.
Temperatures will remain near normal for the week with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Nights this weekend may even feel a bit cool--
with dry air and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s!
With a persistent northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be
possible through the weekend, particularly at times of high tide.
MARINE...
A weak onshore flow has formed along the coast late this
afternoon. But expect the flow to become offshore by late evening
and persist through Thursday night. The offshore flow could become
weak to moderate at times over the Gulf waters. A relative lull
in the convection this evening will pick back up overnight as
showers and storms reform. Activity will increase to scattered to
numerous on Thursday and Thursday night as the upper level trough
moves into south Texas.
Weak to moderate northeasterly flow will continue Friday, increasing
to moderate levels Saturday and Sunday. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution conditions are likely beginning Friday night. Small Craft
Advisory conditions may be possible beginning Sunday through the
middle of the week over the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous
showers will be possible through the middle of next week, with only
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 76 89 74 88 72 / 40 70 50 60 20
Victoria 75 90 72 89 69 / 40 60 40 40 20
Laredo 74 88 72 87 70 / 50 60 50 50 20
Alice 75 89 73 89 70 / 40 70 40 60 20
Rockport 77 88 76 91 75 / 50 70 50 50 20
Cotulla 75 89 71 89 68 / 40 60 30 40 10
Kingsville 75 89 73 88 71 / 50 70 50 60 20
Navy Corpus 78 87 77 90 77 / 50 70 50 60 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
741 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update...
Going forecast was in good shape. The only question is how much
will the haze (smoke from distant wildfires) reduce incoming solar
radiation again and prevent temperatures from reaching their
potential.
97
Previous discussion...
A ridge over the Intermountain west will contribute to upper
northwesterly flow over Northeastern Montana and a relatively
steady weather pattern through the week. Temperatures should trend
slightly upward through Friday afternoon as the apex of the ridge
axis reaches eastern Montana on Friday. The ridge will begin
breaking down on the eastward progression and smoke from wildfires
in the western United States have lingered over the region,
keeping temperatures over the last few days relatively cooler than
expected. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, long wave
radiation will cool efficiently during the overnight periods, but
solar radiation during the day will suppress the high temperature
potential. A gradient of vertically integrate smoke seen on the
HRRR experimental rides along this northwesterly flow aloft, with
thicker smoke to the southwestern portions of the CWA, and thinner
smoke to the northeast. Diurnal mixing will contribute to varying
degrees of air quality, weather, and aviation impacts along the
gradient, but the synoptic set up will be conducive to haziness
across Northeast Montana until cloud cover increases on Friday
afternoon as the next weather pattern arrives this weekend.
The low currently off the western US coast will bring an upper
level trough to the Rocky Mountains on Saturday afternoon. Winds
will begin increase from the east to southeast along the Montana
Dakota state line before the front crosses Northeastern Montana
by Sunday morning. Model blend guidance, along with European and
American ensemble members suggest quite a windy day out of the
west on Sunday with sustained winds near 20 mph with gusts
anywhere from 30 to 40 mph not being unreasonable. Precipitation
associated with the trough may also bring the next chance of
wetting rains Saturday through Sunday. Modest CAPE values hint at
the possibility for thunderstorms, but will need to revisit with
newer model data as the weekend approaches.
Confidence degrades after the weekend with zonal to slightly
southwesterly flow with subtle embedded shortwaves are within the
realm of possibility. Climate Prediction Center is siding on
greater probabilities of warmer and drier weather over the next
couple weeks.
Roxy
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
WINDS: light and variable through Thursday night.
DISCUSSION: With little change in the overall weather pattern,
haziness from wildfire smoke will contribute to obscurations to
slantwise visibility for the next couple days. A diffuse layer of
smoke is expected to hang and cause obscurations starting from
about 6000ft upward through Thursday tonight.
97
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
...Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue to dominate
the forecast.
As of 20Z...cold front has cleared the entire CWA. As anticipated
yesterday...smoke, both sfc and aloft, has increased along and
behind the front. Several automated stations are reporting at
least minor vsby reductions and we can smell smoke here at the
office. Still looks like we`re going to see peak sfc smoke
concentrations this aftn, with gradually improving conditions at
the sfc by this eve, and esp overnight as cleaner air noted on
latest satellite over E SD, MN, and N IA tries to filter in to the
area. HRRR smoke product has had a decent handle on overall
trends, and despite improvement at/near the sfc...HRRR progs and
upstream satellite show a continued stream of mid/high smoke that
will likely continue thru late week and quite possibly into the
weekend as well.
Other than smoke, the forecast remains quiet for the next 24-36
hrs, at least. Lowered overnight lows tonight 2-4 deg as skies
will be clr and winds decr quickly this eve. This should allow for
decent radiational cooling so wanted lows at least a couple/few
deg colder than last night.
The next small caveat of the forecast to keep an eye on is
potential for WAA to spark an iso shwr/sprinkle over far NE/E CWA
late Thu night into Fri AM. Deterministic models as well as SREF
have actually backed off on QPF potential. Model forecast
soundings continue to show a narrow layer of moisture associated
with theta-e adv between H7-H8 and minor CAPE, so still can`t
completely rule out something iso/minor...but with inherited dry
forecast and decr trend on model output certainly don`t feel
strong enough about potential to deviate from dry forecast attm.
Expect a gradual warming trend from late week into the weekend,
but likely a more noticeable change will be the incr in wind.
Latest model guidance suggests gusts 30-35mph on Sat, and even
higher at 40-45mph on Sun. This will also aid in the warming
trend. Given ongoing drought conditions and seasonable decr in
crop/vegetation moisture will need to keep an eye on fire wx
conditions. Current blend gives min RH values in the low 30s
S/SW/W CWA both Sat and Sun aftns...and local knowledge suggests
to me its more likely for these numbers to decr than incr. And
even if RHs remain marginal, feel the current drought conditions
and magnitude of wind may still argue for some fire wx messaging.
Something to keep an eye on over next couple of days.
The only pcpn chance in the forecast is associated with a weak
frontal zone late this weekend and continues to look marginal and
brief. In fact, latest EC ensemble actually shows warmer temps
for early to middle of next week (mid to upper 80s)...despite the
fact we`re getting into time of year where normal temps are
falling rather noticeably. Brief inspection of longer term
ensembles and teleconnections suggest above normal temps should
continue thru the end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling and dry/rain-free conditions
through the period, as mainly higher-level smoke continues drifting
overhead from western wildfires. Confidence is moderately-high in
VFR visibility, as it appears that any earlier potential for MVFR
visibility in surface smoke/haze has since departed off to the
south of KGRI/KEAR. Thus, the only possible caveat is an outside
chance of some patchy ground fog around sunrise, but the signal
for this is simply does not seem strong enough to "ruin" the going
VFR forecast. As for winds, direction will gradually transition
from northerly right away this evening (speed decreasing to under
10KT within the first few hours), then light/variable overnight
into Thursday morning as surface high pressure reigns, then
gradually picking up from the south-southeast by afternoon (gust
potential 15-20KT range especially 18-22Z).
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
H5 analysis from earlier this morning has an intense
area of low pressure over Hudson Bay with a broad trough of low
pressure extending south into the arrowhead of Minnesota and
northern portions of the Great Lakes. West of this feature, high
pressure was anchored off the Baja California coast. Ridging
extended north into the Idaho panhandle. Further west, low pressure
was located roughly 500 miles off the Oregon coast. Other features
of note include a strong shortwave over west Texas and hurricane
Sally near Pensacola Florida. At the surface, a cold front extended
from the northwestern Texas Panhandle, into northwestern Missouri and
central Wisconsin. Surface high pressure was located over western
North Dakota. With passage of the front overnight, smoke aloft has
made it down to the surface and is noticeable this afternoon. Skies
were clear but very hazy and no reduction in visibility was noted at
ground level. As of 2 PM CT, temperatures ranged from upper 60s to
mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Conditions will
remain benign over the next 36 hours as ridging aloft dominates the
weather pattern across the intermountain west and Rockies. Surface
high pressure will track east ending up in Minnesota overnight. This
will shift the winds from the current direction of northeast, to
more of a southerly direction tonight. Low level smoke will be
forced west as winds shift to the east, then southeast this evening.
Southerly winds will then force it back north into the Black hills
and eastern Wyoming. That being said, do not see a reason to mention
smoke in the forecast as the near surface smoke is expected to
dissipate late tonight. The 12z HRRR 6000 FT AGL and Vertical
Integrated smoke product from this morning has a continuation of mid
and high level smoke persisting across the area through tomorrow
afternoon. Since smoke will remain aloft across the area and is not
expected to mix to the surface, will place haze in the forecast and
leave out smoke for now. With no surface visibility restrictions
noted with the expected haze, will just mention haze during the
daylight hours. As for temperatures, tonight will be cooler than
last night as southerly winds will hold off until well after
midnight. With light winds expected, lows will reach into the upper
40s. Southerly winds beginning Thursday morning, will advect in
warmer air to the high plains Thursday pushing highs into the lower
to mid 80s west of highway 83. Locations east of this route, will
see highs in the 70s. I did undercut guidance a tad for highs
tomorrow based on expected smoke. Skies will remain clear into
Thursday night. Winds will be a tad stronger, so have opted for
slightly warmer lows Thursday night with readings in the lower 50s
in the east and south and upper 40s in the west where winds will be
light overnight.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
The upper level low and trough, currently off the coast of Oregon
and Washington state, will come onshore Friday. As this feature
migrates east, ridging over the intermountain west and Rockies
will transition east onto the plains. This will force warmer air
into the forecast area Friday, Saturday and Sunday with highs in
the 70s and 80s Friday with 80s on Saturday and Sunday. As the
upper level low lifts across southern Canada this weekend, we may
see some precipitation develop along the trough axis Saturday
night into Sunday night. These chances will be very limited in
scope given the lack of low level moisture. Behind the exiting
trough, low amplitude ridging will build back into the central
CONUS early next week. This will lead to dry conditions and warmer
than normal temps in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
VFR is expected throughout western and north central Nebraska
tonight and Thursday. There is a chance the smoke covering the
region will lower vsby to less than 7SM in some areas tonight and
Thursday. This would appear to be most likely west of highway 61
during the day Thursday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
756 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Radar this evening shows scattered showers over our southern
counties that continue to rotate westward around the circulation
of now Tropical Storm Sally, which is currently located over far
southeast Alabama. HRRR and CONSShort models indicate this
activity will continue this evening, then diminish overnight while
pivoting into a more SW to NE orientation over our eastern
counties as Sally moves further northeast. Have adjusted pops
accordingly based on these latest CAMs. Little if any shower
activity looks to reach Nashville tonight, so have removed pops
for the city. Extensive cloud cover associated with Sally will
keep temperatures up overnight with lows only in the mid to upper
60s anticipated, and only made minor tweaks to temps. Cannot rule
out some patchy fog tonight, mainly over our far northern
counties, but any fog should be minimal due to the cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Sally now moving across southern AL at this time. The northern
most extent of any shower activity is located as far north as
southern portions of middle TN. The activity is genrally light
and is not expected to make much in the way of any progress
northward. Sally will move east northeast going forward. Thus, the
precipitation will miss the CKV and BNA areas. However, will need
to include some vicinity wording for scattered shower activity
near the CSV taf site.
Otw, northeasterly winds, in response to Sally, will pick up a
bit in the morning and into the afternoon. Not looking for fog to
be a problem overnight.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Cold front has swept through the eastern plains today, bringing
gusty e-ne winds and slightly cooler temperatures to most locations
along and east of the mountains. Unfortunately, switch to nly low
level flow has brought back a good deal of smoke and haze from wrn
U.S. fires into the area, and expect this trend to continue
overnight and Thu, as latest HRRR runs suggest even thicker smoke
and reduced visibility 24 hrs from now. Outside of the smoke,
weather will be quiet, with just a few cumulus build ups over the
higher terrain again on Thu afternoon. Min temps tonight will drop
to seasonably cool levels, while max temps on Fri will begin to
creep higher, as upper level high pressure slowly builds eastward
and mid level temps get a small upward nudge.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Mostly northwest flow will remain aloft as the upper-level ridge
persists over the area, keeping things warm and relatively dry
through the rest of this week. High temperatures will remain in the
high 80s-low 90s over most of the plains and stick to the mid-low
70s over the valleys. Low temperatures should also be at or just
above seasonal normals through the weekend. Lingering smoke from the
western US wildfires could continue to move down over the plains
Thursday night but will likely begin to dissipate as the flow turns
more southerly Friday to begin driving the haze away from our area.
Otherwise the weather should remain relatively quiet through the
weekend. Given the warm surface temperatures, a few high-based
storms over the SW mountains are possible in the afternoon hours Fri-
Sun, but little to no precipitation is likely to reach the ground.
Given the warm and dry conditions, there is a chance of critical
fire weather conditions Friday through Sunday. Although not
significant enough to warrant a highlight, it may be worth
monitoring over the next few days.
Early next week chances for precipitation increase as an upper-level
low passes far to the north, bringing us stronger westerly flow
aloft and a larger supply of moisture into the middle of next week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon each day, mostly centered over the Continental Divide and
the central mountains. The westerly flow will also keep daytime
temperatures warm and increase winds into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Gusty e-ne winds will gradually diminish through the evening, then
expect increasing s-se winds at KPUB and KCOS during the day on Thu.
Smoke and haze will thicken overnight and through the day on Thu,
leading to periods of MVFR visibility at all taf sites, especially
Thu morning.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Current synoptic analysis shows a strong upper trough over eastern
Canada and Hurricane Sally moving inland over the Gulf Coast. In
between, the Central Plains sit beneath above normal H50 heights, on
the eastern periphery of an upper ridge over the western CONUS. At
the surface, a cold front is moving southward through the forecast
area, extending southwest all the way from a low over the Hudson
Bay. Current temperatures ahead of the front across northeast Kansas
are in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures in the 70s to
upper 60s to the northwest in Nebraska. In addition to the cooler
conditions behind the front, visible satellite also shows a more
concentrated area of smoke from the West Coast wildfires. Upstream
surface observations show a few visibility reductions over portions
of western Kansas and Nebraska, suggesting some of the smoke is
lower in the atmosphere near the ground. Farther east, better
surface visibility suggests most of the smoke is higher up in the
atmosphere. Given these observations and forecasts from the HRRR
smoke model, thinking that most of the smoke will remain aloft above
northeast Kansas. As a result, have increased sky grids some to
reflect the filtered sunshine, but have not added any smoke to the
surface grids for now.
Overnight, CAA will allow cooler and drier air to continue to slowly
spread southward behind the front, with lows dropping into the 50s.
With the slightly drier airmass, fog does not look to be as much of
a concern as the past few nights, though some patchy ground fog
still can`t be ruled out in any pockets of lingering moisture.
Tomorrow afternoon, highs should be 5-10 degrees cooler than today,
generally in the mid to upper 70s. Smoke will again be present
higher in the atmosphere, but should remain mostly above the
surface. Skies should otherwise remain clear, but the sun will
nevertheless remain somewhat muted by the smoke.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
The long term portion of the forecast will remain quiet as the
western CONUS ridge slowly slides eastward. Earlier model runs did
note the possibility of a trough moving into the Central Plains
early next week, but confidence has increased that this trough and
any associated DCVA will lift well to the north, with moisture
return being quite limited as well. As a result, with the ridge
in control over the region, no precipitation is expected over the
long term period. The only thing to note will be the possible
continuation of smoke higher up in the atmosphere, as no
significant air mass changes look likely. Despite the generally
above normal H50 heights, H85 temperatures will remain near
normal, supporting high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
on most days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Predominately VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period and
beyond, with smoke resulting in lower VFR--possibly high MVFR--
visbys in north-central Kansas this evening. Winds will be light
from the north to northeast.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM...Reese
AVIATION...Skow