Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/17/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A backdoor cold will continue to spill into the gaps of the central mountain chains this evening. Gusty east to northeast winds around 20 to 25 knots will occur, including at KABQ and KSAF. Gusts at KABQ are expected to remain below Airport Weather Warning Criteria. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain across southeast NM this evening before tapering off by dark. Gusty and erratic winds will be the main threat with an outflow boundary possibly impacting KROW, but chances for an actual shower or thundershower is low. && .PREV DISCUSSION...216 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front is moving southwest across the Land of Enchantment and will result in gusty east canyon winds this evening and overnight into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. The front will provide several degrees of cooling going into Thursday, mainly to central and eastern portions of the state. A Pacific trough will pass to the north of the state this weekend, bringing breezy conditions and a slight chance for showers or storms to the northern mountains and locales closer to the Colorado border. Expect a warming trend early next week as high pressure restrengthens over the region, with above normal temperatures areawide. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... With an upper-level ridge building across the desert southwest, drier air continues to filter into the state as evident by dewpoints in the 20`s and 30`s across most of the area. The exception is across far southeast NM which is still holding on to some low-level moisture. In addition, satellite imagery this afternoon is noting a weak disturbance over far southeast NM/west TX. This disturbance will help spark a few showers and storms across far southern Chaves County through this evening, but the HREF and HRRR keep the bulk of the activity in Eddy and Lea counties. Given how far south the disturbance is as well as the lack of deep moisture, this makes sense. Any storms that do form will be more likely to have gusty and erratic winds rather than any measurable rainfall. Additionally, a backdoor cold front is currently moving through east central NM and is expected to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening. East canyon winds of 30 to 35 mph can be expected in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas before winds taper off after midnight. The aforementioned disturbance is pushed into central TX on Thursday as the ridge continues to build over the desert SW. This will keep dry conditions in the forecast. Despite heights rising slightly over the state, temperatures will cool a few degrees for most thanks to today`s backdoor cold front. LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A 590dam 500mb high will be directly over our area Friday as a quiet weather period persists with daytime temperatures generally at or slightly above normal. The upper high will shift south of our area Saturday as a Pacific trough/low zips east across the central and northern Rockies. This will cause a lee side trough to deepen and lead to breezy to locally windy conditions late Saturday. In addition, moisture working around and under the upper high circulation will fuel a round of late day isolated showers and storms, mainly across the western and northern high terrain. Expect a renewed warming trend beginning Sunday as pressure heights come back up some with weak ridging aloft. Daytime temperatures will be back above normal areawide by Monday. A shortwave trough being depicted by the 12Z ECMWF and GFS for Tuesday may lead to an uptick in convection across northern New Mexico, but otherwise weather will remain tranquil. The next big change may not arrive until the last week in September when the upper high is forecast to weaken and give way to a potent Pacific trough/low, currently modeled to hit the west coast September 25-26th. 11/15 && .FIRE WEATHER... A gusty backdoor cold front is currently moving through east central NM. Dry conditions are expected behind the front, but gusts of 30 to 35 mph can be expected across the east with the east canyon wind developing in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas this evening. Those gusts will taper off by midnight, and dry weather is expected over the area again on Thursday as an area of high pressure builds over the desert southwest. Temperatures will be near September normals although a few degrees cooler compared to today`s readings. As a storm system tracks across the northern Rockies this weekend, the area of high pressure will weaken and be shifted into southern NM. This will allow southeasterly flow to set up over eastern NM this weekend. Most areas will continue to remain dry, however, but isolated storms will be possible across the northern high terrain through Sunday. Wetting precipitation is not expected. Another weak disturbance may allow for better chances for storms across western and northern NM Monday and through the middle of next week. 15 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
622 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Cumulus field has engulfed the eastern half of the CWA but CIGS have been mixing upwards efficiently and with loss of daytime heating late this afternoon should dissipate for the most part. A subtle weak impulse in northwest flow will result in some cloud cover in the morning, however the main impactor to the temperature forecast will be the persistent high haze that the HRRR shows will again thicken up for Thursday. Low level flow becomes more easterly but we`re essentially stuck with the same airmass. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 During the extended portion of the forecast, current ensemble and deterministic model progs agree that surface temperatures will warm from "seasonal" to "down-right hot" for mid to late September. Of course, the caveat there being what role suspended smoke particles aloft will play towards insolation/heating potential during the period. As far as the latest available model data, regarding precipitation chances, it doesn`t look good for meaningful/measurable rainfall anytime soon. Dry northwest flow aloft starts the period. Then, an upper level ridge builds into the region Saturday/Saturday night, with an upper level longwave trof chasing it into the northern plains Sunday/Monday. Some isolated/scattered showers/storms may be possible by Sunday night as energy lifting out of the longwave trof pushes a frontal boundary across the CWA. Any precipitation potential is quickly taken back off the table early next week as the upper jet steering flow transitions briefly into more of a zonal pattern aloft. Whether or not the northern plains region will see one more mid-level shortwave impulse work through mid-week before mid/upper level heights begin rising over the country`s mid-section, remains up for grabs. At this point, mid-level waa does not appear too over-powering for convective development, and models do reflect that some sort of surface troffing/low pressure will be around. Perhaps timing (time of day) and low level moisture availability remain the largest unknowns in the equation at this time. Beyond that, models prog rather hot air (surface through 700hpa) to advect into the region underneath this rebuilding upper level ridge. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...Connelly LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .AVIATION...00z TAF Cycle... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light northerly winds will gradually become more easterly through the day Thursday. Ward && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ DISCUSSION...This Afternoon through Tuesday Night... Current WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the Great Basin, Hurricane Sally over southern AL, and, in the interim, an area of weak troughing aloft stretching from far W TX northeastward to MO leading to northeasterly flow aloft over the CWA. At the surface, broad area of high pressure centered over SK/MB is building southward, with a weak cold front pushing into N KS. Main concern in the immediate term is the very, very small potential for convection this afternoon and evening as weak perturbations in the northeasterly flow aloft translate over the forecast area. Latest model soundings from NAM/RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM suggest very skinny instability profiles with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE across the SE TX Panhandle while the GFS indicates we will be completely capped. Outlier of concern in the other direction is the GEM regional, which depicts 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the SE TX Panhandle. With this solution being an outlier, coupled with the almost precip free nature of every HRRR and RAP run from this morning and afternoon, will add some 5 PoPs to our southeast but keep mentions of precipitation out of the forecast. Thursday, expect the aforementioned surface high to edge southward into KS and N OK. Resulting upslope easterly winds should moderate our temperatures for another day. As for precipitation, expect the weak upper trough to finally slide southeast, with modest large scale height rises expected as result. Have thus gone with 0 PoPs Thursday and Thursday night. Friday and Saturday look to feature northwesterly flow aloft, occasionally a harbinger of evening convection. However, with the Great Basin ridge heading south over the Four Corners and far W TX during this time period and northeasterly 850mb flow over C TX, expect a noted lack of moisture in the low and mid-levels. Have thus continued with the dry forecast. Sunday through Tuesday should herald a return to zonal flow aloft as the upper ridge sets up to our south. Resumption of cross-barrier flow to our northwest will result in lee surface troughing across E CO, leading to southwesterly winds across the Panhandles. Afternoon highs will trend upward accordingly, with highs in the upper 80s and perhaps a return to the 90s by Tuesday. While mid level moisture from the E Pacific may sneak northeastward and become marginally supportive of convective initiation on the higher elevations to our west, expect lack of low level moisture over the Panhandles to keep any approaching showers and storms from persisting into the CWA. Ferguson AVIATION...18Z TAFs... VFR conditions expected through the period at all TAF sites. Winds, initially out of the northeast this afternoon, should become light and variable overnight. Very, very small chance for showers and perhaps thunder at AMA late this afternoon and this evening, far too low for a mention of anything other than cumulus at or around 5 kft during this time period. Ferguson && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 7/77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1058 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Another fairly quiet day across the region, with early afternoon analysis showing a cold front stretching from southeast Wisconsin to Kansas. As the cold front advanced southeastward, smoke was gradually clearing out behind it. The experimental HRRR does suggest a slight increase in near surface smoke heading into this evening, but surface obs don`t indicate any associated visibility reductions, so there must not be much actually making the surface. Still, you may smell smoke at times heading into this evening, but doesn`t seem to be much of an air quality concern. Expect clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s and 40s, with perhaps a little frost forming in far northern portions of the forecast area. Therefore, a Frost Advisory is in effect for Taylor County. For Thursday, high pressure will continue building in and lead to a very quiet, but cooler day, with highs in the 50s and 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The long term period is still looking pretty quiet with a couple nights of frost concerns and only occasional small rain chances. Cool high pressure will remain in place over the forecast through Saturday with highs in the 50s an 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Thursday night looks to be the coldest night, as areas near and north of I-94 drop at least close to freezing, so would expect another Frost Advisory that night. As far as precip chances go, guidance had been indicating the potential for some light rain grazing southwestern portions of the forecast area, owing to some weak shortwave energy and isentropic ascent. However, trends suggest that it will stay out of the forecast area. Even if it does pan out, model soundings suggest difficulty in saturating deep enough for precipitation. A similar situation occurs on Saturday. Really wouldn`t expect much more than some increased cloud cover and maybe a couple sprinkles if the best forcing moves over the forecast area. High pressure pushes off to the east Saturday night/Sunday with a tightening pressure gradient setting up during the day Sunday. Southerly winds could be a bit breezy at times with model soundings suggesting 35-40 mph at the top of the mixed layer. Said southerly winds will also start ushering warmer, more moist air ahead of weak boundary progged to slide through sometime Monday, though latest trends show any associated precip really tapering off before it moves into the forecast area. Southerly winds look to persist into the beginning of next week, with high temperatures getting back up into the 70s to near 80 in a few spots as upper level ridging builds in. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few clouds fl050 should remain mostly east of the TAF sites through Thursday. Surface high pressure was building in across Minnesota with light winds mostly less than 10kts. The smoke has abated, however will return Thursday as it is already pushing into parts of western Minnesota again. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ017. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1001 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Only change for late evening update was to adjust cloud cover towards current trends. Otherwise, going forecast is working just fine. UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Main change for early evening update was to increase cloud cover a bit over the north central and northwest. Otherwise, going forecast remains in good shape. Will be keeping an eye on the southwest through the evening, as smoke may need to be added if visibility consistently starts dropping. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Quiet in the short term period with some smoke and haze. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over southeast Saskatchewan int western ND. Light winds across western and central ND with some scattered diurnal strato-cumulus and a few passing mid and high level clouds. The Latest GOES16 ABI BAND #1, used for monitoring smoke and haze, indicates smoke/haze remaining over a good portion of western and south central ND. The 12Z HRRR Smoke models shows smoke near the surface and aloft undulates a bit and varies in intensity but pretty much remains over the northwest half of the forecast area through 48Hrs. Therefore we added a mention of haze through this period. Whether the smoke gets thick enough to be detected at the surface remains to be seen, but if so, the most likely area would be the far southwest (Beach and Bowman to Dickinson and Hettinger). Last night visibilities never did drop below 6 miles, so for now we will leave out the smoke and later shifts can throw it in if visibilities start to drop. Besides the smoke, a pretty quiet forecast. Dry tonight and Thursday with seasonably cool temperatures. Lows tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s and highs Thursday in the lower 60s east to lower 70s west. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 A northwest upper flow pattern continues through Friday with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. A progressive shortwave ridge tracks across the forecast area Friday night through Saturday with an increasing south to southeast return flow, ahead of a closed upper low. However Gulf moisture remains cutoff so it doesn`t look like a big return of moisture to the area. It will be breezy and warmer over the weekend, with hit and miss (more miss than hit) chances of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. The closed 50H low tracks from north central Montana Saturday night to southeast Saskatchewan Sunday night bringing the best (relative term) chances (around 30-40 percent) Saturday night into Sunday, with some lingering slight chance pops in the north Sunday night. Seasonably mild and dry Monday and Tuesday with a cold front passing through the area on Wednesday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a small chance of a shower. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Visibility restrictions to MVFR levels may be possible over southwest North Dakota tonight if smoke aloft makes it down to the surface. Will monitor through the evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...JJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1003 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the area late tonight, cross the area on Thursday then exit across the Gulf of Maine Thursday night. High pressure will slowly build east across the region Friday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 10 PM Update... The first lead of showers ahead of the cold front looks like they will break up as they move ese overnight w/the best lift and moisture running into Canada. The NAM12 and RAP continue to show this setup as does the latest HRRR. Adjustments were made to the sky and pops to back up the timing of clouds and showers. Llvl jet is pushing through the region attm per 00Z UA and winds will start to drop back in a few hrs. Temps slowly cooling down this evening and this slow cooling will continue overnight. Daycrew`s temperature forecast holding quite well attm. Previous Discussion... The cold front will arrive in the St John Valley late tonight and slowly sweep southward during Thursday. In spite of the strong thermal contrast with this front, there`s no much lift or moisture. Rainfall will amount to just a few hundredths of an inch and the trend continues downward. Since the front will cross northern zones early, highs will only reach the low 50s in far northern Aroostook County. On the other hand, some sunshine ahead of the front will propel highs into the low 70s for Bangor and interior Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will move slowly south across the Gulf of Maine Thursday night while a weak low moves along the front. High pressure will then begin to ridge east across the forecast area overnight. Expect mostly clear skies across northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night, with decreasing clouds across central areas. Could still have a chance of showers across Downeast areas early Thursday night, with decreasing shower chances overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies across interior Downeast areas early with clouds then decreasing overnight. Skies will remain mostly cloudy along the Downeast coast Thursday night. With mostly clear or clearing skies and light winds, expect favorable conditions for radiational cooling across northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch for northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night where frost and freezing temperatures are expected. High pressure will ridge across the forecast area Friday. Across northern areas, expect a mostly sunny morning then a partly sunny afternoon with diurnal cloud development. Clouds will decrease across central and Downeast portions of the forecast area Friday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Great Lakes will ridge across the region Friday night through Saturday. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will track north of Maine Friday night/Saturday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear Downeast, Friday night through Saturday. Frost and freezing temperatures are expected again across northern areas Friday night, though cloud cover could impact temperatures. Patchy frost is also possible across central and interior Downeast areas Friday night. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday/Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cool weather with a frost & freeze potential continues through Tuesday morning. Elongated surface high pressure will remain locked over the area through Tuesday and most models are in agreement with this, but there is an exception late in the period. High pressure in place means we can expect generally fair weather conditions during this timeframe. Sunday morning will be a chilly one with temps in the 20s across North Woods to Upper 30s Downeast. Mainly sunny day across the CWA on Sunday provides some rebound but temps struggle to the upper 50s to low 60s. Monday starts chilly again with the potential of frost & freeze but highs will return to near normal with low to mid 60s. Tuesday the operational ECMWF continues to be the outlier model suggesting a trough digging south over the northeast that captures Teddy and pulls the moisture northward. Given the majority of guidance not showing this solution we have opted to keep pops low across the far eastern forecast area. We will continue to watch the long range model trends with this potential system. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue into the evening with LLWS a threat at all sites. Winds at FL020 may reach up to 60 kt this evening at FVE. A cold front will slide south into the area late tonight and cross the area Thursday. The front itself may produce tempo MVFR cigs with a few showers. Ahead of the front, southern terminals such as BGR, BHB, and HUL may experience MVFR tempo IFR cigs late tonight into Thursday morning as moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of Maine. SHORT TERM: Thursday night...VFR conditions across central and northern areas. Occasional MVFR conditions possible Downeast, mostly early. Friday...VFR. Friday night through Monday...Generally VFR. However, variable conditions with any mostly valley fog each night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The strong southwest winds will continue through the night and will leave the Small Craft Advisory in place through early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will diminish during Thursday. Seas will continue to build into the night with some 8 ft seas offshore. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels later Thursday night through early Friday, then again Friday night into early Saturday. Will have a chance of showers Thursday night, mostly early. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
830 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .DISCUSSION... Convection has waned across much of S TX this evening except across the Brush Country where a line of strong thunderstorms is tracking to he east-southeast. The HRRR progs this convection to also diminish over the next couple of hours. A second upper level short wave is expected to move across S TX later tonight into Thu bringing another round of convection. Have tweaked the pops to show diminishing precip through 06Z then increasing once again toward early Thu morning. Also tweaked winds, temps and dewpoints based on latest observations. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ DISCUSSION... Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion. AVIATION... Scattered convection is expected throughout the TAF period. Even so, expect VFR conditions to prevail. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible in and around thunderstorms. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Scattered convection has formed multiple boundaries for additional convection to form on late this afternoon over much of the region. This activity should linger into the evening hours over the coastal plains into the southern Brush Country. Activity will diminish a little bit by late this evening. The mid to upper level trough from west Texas to northern Mexico will move eastward into northwest Texas to Edwards Plateau early Thursday morning and be located over central to south Texas Thursday night. An upper level jet streak will move northeast into east and southeast Texas late tonight, placing the right entrance region of the jet over the coastal plains. Expect convection will reform in low level convergence zone along the coast overnight. Upper level divergence is expected to increase further over the region on Thursday as the upper trough approaches from the west. High moisture will remain over most of south Texas with PWAT values slightly above 2 inches. Could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts with storms capable of producing 2 inch per hour rain rates. WPC has region in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Will go with likely PoPs across the region Thursday. Convective activity should decrease from west to east during Thursday night as the upper trough moves over the area. Elevated tides persist this afternoon along the Middle Texas with tide levels from 2.1 to 2.4 feet MSL. Water levels are increasing in the bays as well. Bay level is near 2 feet at the USS Lexington in Corpus Christi Bay, while it is slightly above 1.5 feet at Rockport. Expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory in the coastal portions of San Patricio south to Kleberg to cover this minor flooding that could be affecting beaches around Corpus Christi Bay down to the Laguna Madre, and extended the advisory until 8 PM. The Coastal Flood Advisory will likely need to be re-issued for the next high tide cycle. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... The mid/upper level trough will persist over the area through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day during the work week with PWATs near 2 inches and moderate instability. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday and Friday as a 500 mb vort max approaches the area. Drier conditions (PWATs lowering to near 0.8 inches) will move into the area as a high pressure begins to creep into the area for the weekend, though isolated showers will continue to be possible, mainly in the afternoons. Models continue to struggle with the development of an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC continues to monitor this and have a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days. With the difference in models solutions, the forecast becomes unclear. The ECMWF remains relatively dry (PWATs around 1.2 inches) while the GFS returns deep moisture to the area (PWATs near 2.4 inches). Have decided to lean on the NBM for PoPs, as it seems to be a good middle of the road solution. This leaves the highest PoPs over the waters and along the coast and keeps only isolated convection over the rest of the area. Temperatures will remain near normal for the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Nights this weekend may even feel a bit cool-- with dry air and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s! With a persistent northeast flow, minor coastal flooding will be possible through the weekend, particularly at times of high tide. MARINE... A weak onshore flow has formed along the coast late this afternoon. But expect the flow to become offshore by late evening and persist through Thursday night. The offshore flow could become weak to moderate at times over the Gulf waters. A relative lull in the convection this evening will pick back up overnight as showers and storms reform. Activity will increase to scattered to numerous on Thursday and Thursday night as the upper level trough moves into south Texas. Weak to moderate northeasterly flow will continue Friday, increasing to moderate levels Saturday and Sunday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions are likely beginning Friday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible beginning Sunday through the middle of the week over the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible through the middle of next week, with only isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 89 74 88 72 / 40 70 50 60 20 Victoria 75 90 72 89 69 / 40 60 40 40 20 Laredo 74 88 72 87 70 / 50 60 50 50 20 Alice 75 89 73 89 70 / 40 70 40 60 20 Rockport 77 88 76 91 75 / 50 70 50 50 20 Cotulla 75 89 71 89 68 / 40 60 30 40 10 Kingsville 75 89 73 88 71 / 50 70 50 60 20 Navy Corpus 78 87 77 90 77 / 50 70 50 60 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
741 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .DISCUSSION... Evening update... Going forecast was in good shape. The only question is how much will the haze (smoke from distant wildfires) reduce incoming solar radiation again and prevent temperatures from reaching their potential. 97 Previous discussion... A ridge over the Intermountain west will contribute to upper northwesterly flow over Northeastern Montana and a relatively steady weather pattern through the week. Temperatures should trend slightly upward through Friday afternoon as the apex of the ridge axis reaches eastern Montana on Friday. The ridge will begin breaking down on the eastward progression and smoke from wildfires in the western United States have lingered over the region, keeping temperatures over the last few days relatively cooler than expected. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, long wave radiation will cool efficiently during the overnight periods, but solar radiation during the day will suppress the high temperature potential. A gradient of vertically integrate smoke seen on the HRRR experimental rides along this northwesterly flow aloft, with thicker smoke to the southwestern portions of the CWA, and thinner smoke to the northeast. Diurnal mixing will contribute to varying degrees of air quality, weather, and aviation impacts along the gradient, but the synoptic set up will be conducive to haziness across Northeast Montana until cloud cover increases on Friday afternoon as the next weather pattern arrives this weekend. The low currently off the western US coast will bring an upper level trough to the Rocky Mountains on Saturday afternoon. Winds will begin increase from the east to southeast along the Montana Dakota state line before the front crosses Northeastern Montana by Sunday morning. Model blend guidance, along with European and American ensemble members suggest quite a windy day out of the west on Sunday with sustained winds near 20 mph with gusts anywhere from 30 to 40 mph not being unreasonable. Precipitation associated with the trough may also bring the next chance of wetting rains Saturday through Sunday. Modest CAPE values hint at the possibility for thunderstorms, but will need to revisit with newer model data as the weekend approaches. Confidence degrades after the weekend with zonal to slightly southwesterly flow with subtle embedded shortwaves are within the realm of possibility. Climate Prediction Center is siding on greater probabilities of warmer and drier weather over the next couple weeks. Roxy && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR WINDS: light and variable through Thursday night. DISCUSSION: With little change in the overall weather pattern, haziness from wildfire smoke will contribute to obscurations to slantwise visibility for the next couple days. A diffuse layer of smoke is expected to hang and cause obscurations starting from about 6000ft upward through Thursday tonight. 97 && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
656 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...Aviation Update... .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 420 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue to dominate the forecast. As of 20Z...cold front has cleared the entire CWA. As anticipated yesterday...smoke, both sfc and aloft, has increased along and behind the front. Several automated stations are reporting at least minor vsby reductions and we can smell smoke here at the office. Still looks like we`re going to see peak sfc smoke concentrations this aftn, with gradually improving conditions at the sfc by this eve, and esp overnight as cleaner air noted on latest satellite over E SD, MN, and N IA tries to filter in to the area. HRRR smoke product has had a decent handle on overall trends, and despite improvement at/near the sfc...HRRR progs and upstream satellite show a continued stream of mid/high smoke that will likely continue thru late week and quite possibly into the weekend as well. Other than smoke, the forecast remains quiet for the next 24-36 hrs, at least. Lowered overnight lows tonight 2-4 deg as skies will be clr and winds decr quickly this eve. This should allow for decent radiational cooling so wanted lows at least a couple/few deg colder than last night. The next small caveat of the forecast to keep an eye on is potential for WAA to spark an iso shwr/sprinkle over far NE/E CWA late Thu night into Fri AM. Deterministic models as well as SREF have actually backed off on QPF potential. Model forecast soundings continue to show a narrow layer of moisture associated with theta-e adv between H7-H8 and minor CAPE, so still can`t completely rule out something iso/minor...but with inherited dry forecast and decr trend on model output certainly don`t feel strong enough about potential to deviate from dry forecast attm. Expect a gradual warming trend from late week into the weekend, but likely a more noticeable change will be the incr in wind. Latest model guidance suggests gusts 30-35mph on Sat, and even higher at 40-45mph on Sun. This will also aid in the warming trend. Given ongoing drought conditions and seasonable decr in crop/vegetation moisture will need to keep an eye on fire wx conditions. Current blend gives min RH values in the low 30s S/SW/W CWA both Sat and Sun aftns...and local knowledge suggests to me its more likely for these numbers to decr than incr. And even if RHs remain marginal, feel the current drought conditions and magnitude of wind may still argue for some fire wx messaging. Something to keep an eye on over next couple of days. The only pcpn chance in the forecast is associated with a weak frontal zone late this weekend and continues to look marginal and brief. In fact, latest EC ensemble actually shows warmer temps for early to middle of next week (mid to upper 80s)...despite the fact we`re getting into time of year where normal temps are falling rather noticeably. Brief inspection of longer term ensembles and teleconnections suggest above normal temps should continue thru the end of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Very high confidence in VFR ceiling and dry/rain-free conditions through the period, as mainly higher-level smoke continues drifting overhead from western wildfires. Confidence is moderately-high in VFR visibility, as it appears that any earlier potential for MVFR visibility in surface smoke/haze has since departed off to the south of KGRI/KEAR. Thus, the only possible caveat is an outside chance of some patchy ground fog around sunrise, but the signal for this is simply does not seem strong enough to "ruin" the going VFR forecast. As for winds, direction will gradually transition from northerly right away this evening (speed decreasing to under 10KT within the first few hours), then light/variable overnight into Thursday morning as surface high pressure reigns, then gradually picking up from the south-southeast by afternoon (gust potential 15-20KT range especially 18-22Z). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 H5 analysis from earlier this morning has an intense area of low pressure over Hudson Bay with a broad trough of low pressure extending south into the arrowhead of Minnesota and northern portions of the Great Lakes. West of this feature, high pressure was anchored off the Baja California coast. Ridging extended north into the Idaho panhandle. Further west, low pressure was located roughly 500 miles off the Oregon coast. Other features of note include a strong shortwave over west Texas and hurricane Sally near Pensacola Florida. At the surface, a cold front extended from the northwestern Texas Panhandle, into northwestern Missouri and central Wisconsin. Surface high pressure was located over western North Dakota. With passage of the front overnight, smoke aloft has made it down to the surface and is noticeable this afternoon. Skies were clear but very hazy and no reduction in visibility was noted at ground level. As of 2 PM CT, temperatures ranged from upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Conditions will remain benign over the next 36 hours as ridging aloft dominates the weather pattern across the intermountain west and Rockies. Surface high pressure will track east ending up in Minnesota overnight. This will shift the winds from the current direction of northeast, to more of a southerly direction tonight. Low level smoke will be forced west as winds shift to the east, then southeast this evening. Southerly winds will then force it back north into the Black hills and eastern Wyoming. That being said, do not see a reason to mention smoke in the forecast as the near surface smoke is expected to dissipate late tonight. The 12z HRRR 6000 FT AGL and Vertical Integrated smoke product from this morning has a continuation of mid and high level smoke persisting across the area through tomorrow afternoon. Since smoke will remain aloft across the area and is not expected to mix to the surface, will place haze in the forecast and leave out smoke for now. With no surface visibility restrictions noted with the expected haze, will just mention haze during the daylight hours. As for temperatures, tonight will be cooler than last night as southerly winds will hold off until well after midnight. With light winds expected, lows will reach into the upper 40s. Southerly winds beginning Thursday morning, will advect in warmer air to the high plains Thursday pushing highs into the lower to mid 80s west of highway 83. Locations east of this route, will see highs in the 70s. I did undercut guidance a tad for highs tomorrow based on expected smoke. Skies will remain clear into Thursday night. Winds will be a tad stronger, so have opted for slightly warmer lows Thursday night with readings in the lower 50s in the east and south and upper 40s in the west where winds will be light overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The upper level low and trough, currently off the coast of Oregon and Washington state, will come onshore Friday. As this feature migrates east, ridging over the intermountain west and Rockies will transition east onto the plains. This will force warmer air into the forecast area Friday, Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 70s and 80s Friday with 80s on Saturday and Sunday. As the upper level low lifts across southern Canada this weekend, we may see some precipitation develop along the trough axis Saturday night into Sunday night. These chances will be very limited in scope given the lack of low level moisture. Behind the exiting trough, low amplitude ridging will build back into the central CONUS early next week. This will lead to dry conditions and warmer than normal temps in the 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 VFR is expected throughout western and north central Nebraska tonight and Thursday. There is a chance the smoke covering the region will lower vsby to less than 7SM in some areas tonight and Thursday. This would appear to be most likely west of highway 61 during the day Thursday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
756 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Radar this evening shows scattered showers over our southern counties that continue to rotate westward around the circulation of now Tropical Storm Sally, which is currently located over far southeast Alabama. HRRR and CONSShort models indicate this activity will continue this evening, then diminish overnight while pivoting into a more SW to NE orientation over our eastern counties as Sally moves further northeast. Have adjusted pops accordingly based on these latest CAMs. Little if any shower activity looks to reach Nashville tonight, so have removed pops for the city. Extensive cloud cover associated with Sally will keep temperatures up overnight with lows only in the mid to upper 60s anticipated, and only made minor tweaks to temps. Cannot rule out some patchy fog tonight, mainly over our far northern counties, but any fog should be minimal due to the cloud cover. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Sally now moving across southern AL at this time. The northern most extent of any shower activity is located as far north as southern portions of middle TN. The activity is genrally light and is not expected to make much in the way of any progress northward. Sally will move east northeast going forward. Thus, the precipitation will miss the CKV and BNA areas. However, will need to include some vicinity wording for scattered shower activity near the CSV taf site. Otw, northeasterly winds, in response to Sally, will pick up a bit in the morning and into the afternoon. Not looking for fog to be a problem overnight. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Shamburger AVIATION........21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Cold front has swept through the eastern plains today, bringing gusty e-ne winds and slightly cooler temperatures to most locations along and east of the mountains. Unfortunately, switch to nly low level flow has brought back a good deal of smoke and haze from wrn U.S. fires into the area, and expect this trend to continue overnight and Thu, as latest HRRR runs suggest even thicker smoke and reduced visibility 24 hrs from now. Outside of the smoke, weather will be quiet, with just a few cumulus build ups over the higher terrain again on Thu afternoon. Min temps tonight will drop to seasonably cool levels, while max temps on Fri will begin to creep higher, as upper level high pressure slowly builds eastward and mid level temps get a small upward nudge. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Mostly northwest flow will remain aloft as the upper-level ridge persists over the area, keeping things warm and relatively dry through the rest of this week. High temperatures will remain in the high 80s-low 90s over most of the plains and stick to the mid-low 70s over the valleys. Low temperatures should also be at or just above seasonal normals through the weekend. Lingering smoke from the western US wildfires could continue to move down over the plains Thursday night but will likely begin to dissipate as the flow turns more southerly Friday to begin driving the haze away from our area. Otherwise the weather should remain relatively quiet through the weekend. Given the warm surface temperatures, a few high-based storms over the SW mountains are possible in the afternoon hours Fri- Sun, but little to no precipitation is likely to reach the ground. Given the warm and dry conditions, there is a chance of critical fire weather conditions Friday through Sunday. Although not significant enough to warrant a highlight, it may be worth monitoring over the next few days. Early next week chances for precipitation increase as an upper-level low passes far to the north, bringing us stronger westerly flow aloft and a larger supply of moisture into the middle of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon each day, mostly centered over the Continental Divide and the central mountains. The westerly flow will also keep daytime temperatures warm and increase winds into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 251 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Gusty e-ne winds will gradually diminish through the evening, then expect increasing s-se winds at KPUB and KCOS during the day on Thu. Smoke and haze will thicken overnight and through the day on Thu, leading to periods of MVFR visibility at all taf sites, especially Thu morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...PETERSEN
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Current synoptic analysis shows a strong upper trough over eastern Canada and Hurricane Sally moving inland over the Gulf Coast. In between, the Central Plains sit beneath above normal H50 heights, on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge over the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front is moving southward through the forecast area, extending southwest all the way from a low over the Hudson Bay. Current temperatures ahead of the front across northeast Kansas are in the low to mid 80s, with cooler temperatures in the 70s to upper 60s to the northwest in Nebraska. In addition to the cooler conditions behind the front, visible satellite also shows a more concentrated area of smoke from the West Coast wildfires. Upstream surface observations show a few visibility reductions over portions of western Kansas and Nebraska, suggesting some of the smoke is lower in the atmosphere near the ground. Farther east, better surface visibility suggests most of the smoke is higher up in the atmosphere. Given these observations and forecasts from the HRRR smoke model, thinking that most of the smoke will remain aloft above northeast Kansas. As a result, have increased sky grids some to reflect the filtered sunshine, but have not added any smoke to the surface grids for now. Overnight, CAA will allow cooler and drier air to continue to slowly spread southward behind the front, with lows dropping into the 50s. With the slightly drier airmass, fog does not look to be as much of a concern as the past few nights, though some patchy ground fog still can`t be ruled out in any pockets of lingering moisture. Tomorrow afternoon, highs should be 5-10 degrees cooler than today, generally in the mid to upper 70s. Smoke will again be present higher in the atmosphere, but should remain mostly above the surface. Skies should otherwise remain clear, but the sun will nevertheless remain somewhat muted by the smoke. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 The long term portion of the forecast will remain quiet as the western CONUS ridge slowly slides eastward. Earlier model runs did note the possibility of a trough moving into the Central Plains early next week, but confidence has increased that this trough and any associated DCVA will lift well to the north, with moisture return being quite limited as well. As a result, with the ridge in control over the region, no precipitation is expected over the long term period. The only thing to note will be the possible continuation of smoke higher up in the atmosphere, as no significant air mass changes look likely. Despite the generally above normal H50 heights, H85 temperatures will remain near normal, supporting high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s on most days. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Predominately VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period and beyond, with smoke resulting in lower VFR--possibly high MVFR-- visbys in north-central Kansas this evening. Winds will be light from the north to northeast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM...Reese AVIATION...Skow