Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/15/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
733 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Cancelled the Red Flag Warning a little early this evening as conditions are improving with rising RH and diminishing gusts. The remainder of the forecast is still on track and no further changes are planned. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Somewhat persistent mid-level pattern is expected to continue over the CONUS for the short range. The pattern being close to a positive PNA setup. Rain chances look nil through the period given pretty much capped environment over the region. The main issue is probably smoke and perhaps fire danger. Warm front will continue to lift north of the region tonight, with somewhat higher dewpoints expected to advect north over the area. This will serve to keep overnight lows rather mild, and should also lead to a bit higher RHs Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be a bit less gusty Tuesday afternoon. For now not planning on any fire headlines. Meanwhile, HRRR smoke model continues to indicate plenty of smoke aloft across the area through Tuesday, and perhaps even some near sfc smoke over the western part of the state on Tuesday. Will keep hazy conditions in the grids, and will evaluate sfc smoke in later forecasts. A front slides through Tuesday night with a return to lower dewpoints, and cooler temperatures. Overall, though, temperatures will remain above normal through most of the forecast period especially for Tuesday as winds turn a bit southwest in the afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Will start out the long term period with an upper flow pattern that consists of a cut-off upper low off the Pacific Northwest, a ridge over the northern Rockies, and an eastern CONUS trough with a northwest flow regime overhead. That means the forecast will be initially dry, however a weak northwest flow wave, combined with mid- level warm advection could support enough lift for some weak convection early Thursday. Easterly low level flow and cloud cover will probably limit warming during the day Thursday and Friday however. A warm up returns for the weekend, as the aforementioned Pacific Northwest upper wave moves across the Northern Rockies, and brings in additional thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. However, haze from smoke will affect the region through the period, as well, and may start to affect vsby on Tuesday across central SD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
947 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in clears the sky of clouds though a thin layer of smoke will be present aloft. Sunny skies with light winds are expected for Wednesday before a weakening cold front approaches Thursday bringing more clouds and isolated showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... One uncertainty tonight with the ongoing forecast is if the high level smoke coming into the region will have any effect on our low temperatures tonight. For now, temperatures are falling off fairly quickly and in line with our forecast thinking below. Ny mesonet data is showing portions of Chenango, Cortland and Madison counties already seeing temperatures falling into the low 40`s. Given these trends, low temperatures were decreased slightly increasing the potential for patchy frost. A SPS was issued for these counties given coverage does not look widespread enough for an advisory. Previous discussion below. Winds at the surface drop off as high pressure builds in along with very dry air aloft depicted by water vapor imagery, tonight will have efficient radiational cooling. Areas across northern Oneida county along with some of the higher valleys in the Catskills may have temperatures dip into the low 30s, enough for some patchy fog to develop. With dry ground, the temperatures right near the surface will cool faster so it is easier to get some frost development even with lows that may be several degrees above freezing. Tomorrow, high pressure is right overhead with clear skies once again. Any valley fog quickly burns off and temperatures recover quick. The latest HRRR smoke run still has a thin layer of smoke well above the surface so skies will look a bit hazy tomorrow. WAA at 850 mb through the day will help keep overnight lows warmer tomorrow night. Dry air in place and less efficient radiational cooling is able to keep fog forming late Tuesday night into Wednesday && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 220 pm update... Still some uncertainty in the short term with respect to the plume of moisture streaming north from the remnants of Sally and also from the southern Atlantic coast. At this time it appears any significant rainfall will remain to the south and se of the forecast area, but this will require some monitoring through the next couple days. Quiet weather is expected on Wednesday with a surface high off the Northeast coast and a broad/flat upper ridge overhead. Skies should be mostly sunny with daytime heating and warm air advection contributing to afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds may be a bit breezy Wed afternoon as well with sustained south winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph. The upper level pattern becomes slightly more amplified Wed night into Thursday as a broad upper trough drops into the upper Midwest and wrn Great Lakes. At the same time remnants of Sally will be lifting north and ne through the Southeast US. At this point it appears the incoming wave to the north will move in before the tropical air mass is able to lift far north enough to impact ne PA or central NY. Most of the model guidance continues to hint at only a glancing blow of up to a quarter of an inch of rain, at most, over parts of ne PA and the far srn Catskills later on Thursday. So, have decided to stay with persistence and continue with the chance PoPs coming in Thur afternoon with light precip amounts. Temperatures Wed night will be mild as increased cloud cover keeps lows in the 50s. Highs on Thursday will be very seasonal...topping out in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 220 pm update... The incoming wave from the west/nw may have enough large scale forcing and enough moisture to work with to create some scattered rain showers Thursday night, but by Friday morning the deep dry air should be overtaking most of the region and allow most of the rain to come to an end from west to east. A large dome of high pressure with much cooler temperatures will settle in late Friday through most of the weekend with very quiet weather conditions, highs in the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s...and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Could have favorable conditions for frost. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dense river valley fog will form at KELM overnight, beginning around 08z and ending around 14z. Expect visibilities of 1/4SM or less and ceilings around 100 feet in fog. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and light winds will prevail for the next 24 hours. Outlook... Tuesday evening through Wednesday night...VFR, except valley fog KELM late nights-early mornings. Thursday through Thursday night...Occasional restrictions possible with isolated showers. Friday into Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009-046- 057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The forecast for tonight remains on track. No changes with this product issuance. UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Opted to add in areas of smoke west for tonight with a few visibility restrictions starting to show up the last couple of hours at Beach, Tioga, Estevan, Watford City, and over portions of eastern Montana. HRRR near-sfc smoke model has this depicted well, expanding slowly to the east overnight and through the day Tuesday. For now kept smoke and/or haze through Tue afternoon, leaving out Tue night for now but will need it eventually. Otherwise the forecast for tonight remains on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan into north central Montana with high over the Great Lakes into the Midwest. Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the Rockies into the plains. Some high clouds lifting over the ridge continue to pass through our area. The main feature, though, continues to be the smoke aloft. The smoke has had some influence on temperatures today, as we have remained cooler than expected. For tonight, a cool front starts to drop through the area tonight. Main concern with this is whether this will have an influence on mixing some smoke down to the surface, particularly over western locations. Will continue to advertise widespread haze for now, but will have to keep an eye on observations and reports to see if this mixing down does develop. On Tuesday, cool front will continue to drop through the area in the morning, but the colder air will this system will lag behind a bit, so a mild day is expected. Have dropped temperatures down a bit, though, due to the influence of the wildfire smoke. Ridge breaks down over our area, though will strengthen over the western United States. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Cool high pressure settles in for Wednesday, bringing a notably cooler day. Low precipitation chances enter the forecast for Thursday as modest cyclonic flow sets up over the region. Models push a compact low over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, which will zip towards our area for the weekend bringing precipiation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Reduced visibility in patchy/areas of smoke expected across western ND tonight at times. This will likely continue Tuesday, expanding to the east. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JJS AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into our region tonight with mainly clear skies and light winds anticipated, areas of frost are expected in the colder valleys, away from Lake Champlain. Tuesday will feature filtered sunshine as high level smoke from western fires impacts our area again with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Breezy and milder conditions return on Wednesday, before a cold front with scattered showers arrives for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1014 PM EDT Monday...Minor changes needed to late evening temperatures, winds, and sky cover, but we remain on track to see the coldest overnight conditions of the season in northern New York and much of Vermont where frost and freeze conditions will develop overnight. Aside from a few passing clouds in northern portions of the forecast area, skies have remained clear, promoting good radiational cooling and pre-dawn fog in favored river valleys. It is already 33 degrees at the Adirondack Regional Airport, our region`s typical cold spot. In contrast, persistent northwesterly winds in the Champlain Valley are keeping temperatures relatively mild in the low 50s. Made some slight increases to wind speeds in this area through the next few hours, but as the pressure gradient weakens, winds should gradually fall off and so will temperatures. However, lows there are still expected to remain too mild for frost. Finally, lowered cloud cover with no widespread clouds through the early morning hours, but we still may see some high clouds from upstream over Ontario arrive towards daybreak. Previous Discussion... Sfc analysis places center of 1031mb high pres over northern MI with cyclonic northwest upslope flow prevailing acrs our cwa this aftn, along with some diurnally driven fair wx cumulus, under filtered sunshine from high level smoke from western fires. Tonight the fcst challenge will be temps and areal coverage of frost/freeze conditions. Little change made with regards to our thinking with temps mid/upper 20s slk/nek where freeze warning continues, while SLV, central/northern VT and valleys along the western slopes experience temps in the lower to mid 30s with frost advisory. Meanwhile, upper 30s to mid 40s occur in CPV. Some patchy frost possible away from the Lake, in places like Essex, Milton, Sheldon, and Whiting, but coverage will be patchy at best with temps in the mid 30s. Some questions to think about, does high level smoke impact radiational cooling tonight, nam 3km shows lingering moisture around 850mb, does trrn clouds persist, and how quickly do winds decouple, will factor into temps overnight. Dewpoints have been slow to drop this aftn, so thinking a few locations will drop below cross over value with patchy fog possible, especially climo favored areas that received rainfall on Sunday. Tuesday, expecting filtered sunshine again with impacts from smoke likely, given HRRR output and upstream satl trends. Temps under developing llvl waa wl warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s by mid aftn. Winds generally light from the north at 4 to 8 mph, before switching to the south toward evening. 925mb to 850mb jet increases overnight into the 30 to 40 knot range by 12z Weds, supporting warming llvl thermal and a challenging temp fcst overnight. Thinking temps drop quickly early evening with lows mid 30s to upper 40s, before warming aft midnight, especially wider valleys of the SLV/CPV, where southerly winds increase. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 258 PM EDT Monday...Another dry but windy day is expected Wednesday as strong surface high pressure shifts offshore while a cold front approaches from the west. Pressure gradient tightens up early Wednesday morning with southerly gusts in the 20-30 mph range likely on land through the day, while on Lake Champlain gusts could exceed 35 mph producing wave heights in the 3-6 foot range. Probably be dealing with a decent amount of smoke in the air as well per latest HRRR smoke model until a cold front swings through on Thursday. No big changes to the timing of the front as guidance continues to come into agreement there. It appears chances for precip will increase after midnight and expect scattered showers to slowly progress northwest to southeast through the day, exiting east of the region by Thursday night. Overall QPF will be light in intensity, and generally less than a quarter inch. Despite the smoke, highs Wednesday should reach into the mid 70s across the region, with a cooler day in the 60s on Thursday. Wednesday night lows will range through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 258 PM EDT Monday...Behind the front, another very quiet period of weather is expected as an expansive area of high pressure will build in for Friday through the weekend with an abundance of sunshine during the day and clear cool nights. Highs will be cool in the 50s for most locations through Sunday, then warm into the 60s on Monday. Areas of frost will be possible each night across much of the region, especially in the Adirondacks and central/northeast Vermont where temps drop into the 30s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue at terminals, except for a period of dense fog and low clouds causing VLIFR visibilities and ceilings at MPV and SLK. Most likely time frame for these conditions is between 08Z and 13Z. Otherwise, surface high pressure will limit wind speeds to mainly under 5 knots through 18Z, with slightly higher wind speeds developing after that time, especially at New York sites where return southwest flow will commence. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ004. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ003-006>008-010- 016>018. NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ030-034. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ026-027-029-031- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Kutikoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
906 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Still have a parade of clouds moving across the FA. There are a few locations reporting a 5000 foot ceiling, one across the western Devils Lake region and another around the Lake of the Woods. UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 A quiet night is anticipated. A fair amount of smoke and cirrus will continue to drift across the FA. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The primary impacts or concerns will be temps and impact of thick cirrus/smoke on the day time highs and then possible air quality issues. Over the next 18 to 24 hours will see a weak surface low slide across the forecast area. Ahead of the low will continue to see warm advection and southerly winds. Strong capping will limit precip from developing even as 850mb winds increase this evening as low level jet of up to 40 kts develops. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s. Trailing trough or wind shift will slide south across the area tomorrow morning with winds becoming northerly during the daytime from NW to SE across the area. Went a bit lower with temps tomorrow as smoke has limited insolation and heating at the SFC today. Will see a good gradient with highs in the low 80s in the south ahead of the wind shift and upper 60s in the Devils Lake basin behind the trough. Will need to monitor the surface observations behind the wind shift as HRRR is suggesting that some of the upper level smoke maybe transported downward to the surface tomorrow. Air quality and vsby may be impacted. Model trend continue to paint the western portions of the area with the best chance of occurrence. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Main concerns this period continue to be a drop in temperatures, potential frost/freeze conditions, and possible rainfall on the weekend. The jet stream dipping into the Red River Valley will bring below normal temperatures for the remainder of the work week, thanks to cold air advection. Confidence is increasing for the potential of more frosts and/or freezes in our future because of lows in the 30s and light winds on both Thursday and Friday mornings so that is something we will have to watch closely. Considering many locations that could be seeing freezing conditions with this have already had their first freeze of the season, impacts will be minimal other than having to scrape your windshield. Highs will stay in the 50s and 60s to end the week. Our next concern comes with an upper level trough riding behind the ridge. It is not appearing to be significant as of now, though confidence is on the low side about the rainfall aspect due to ensemble spread. The worst case scenario as of now appears to be up to a 1/4 of an inch of rainfall heading into next week. Again, the signals are there saying that rain will come, but we are lacking the confidence to say exactly how much as of now. It is appearing to be of minimal impact to any weekend plans right now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 A low level jet is expected tonight, mainly impacting KFAR and KBJI with low level wind shear. Otherwise, surface winds will drop off this evening, then increase again Tuesday mid morning. A northwest wind switch is also expected on Tuesday. Finally, models are showing some MVFR clouds developing at KGFK and KTVF around sunrise Tuesday. Confidence not really high, but mentioned a TEMPO group at KGFK and KTVF for that. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...AK AVIATION...Godon
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Mainly dry and warm is the theme, though there are a few relatively minor forecast "issues" to keep an eye on. Upper air analysis indicates strong upper ridging continuing to dominate the weather over much of the central CONUS. A weak upper trough can be seen over the Desert SW, but the main upper westerlies remains well N, closer to US/Canadian border. At the sfc, ridge axis continues to slowly shift E thru the Midwest as lee troughing deepens over the High Plains. This is resulting in return S/SE flow locally, but the air remains dry w/ Tds in the upper 40s and 50s. A belt of smoke can be seen on satellite imagery essentially stationary over S Neb. This high level smoke that will likely not be going anywhere any time soon given very weak flow above H6. Thus, filtered sun conditions will continue for at least the next 24-36 hrs, and maybe even more noticeable tmrw aftn-eve per latest HRRR smoke progs. Would expect to see additional waves of smoke thru the week, even once upper flow incr, as there is simply just a lot of smoke and a lot of fires over W/NW CONUS where upper flow will be coming from. Other than the smoke, skies will be clear overnight. Can`t completely rule out some patchy valley fog over E/SE portions of CWA as forecast lows are a few deg below crossover temps. Haven`t included in forecast attm as Srly winds likely won`t completely decouple, but will pass along to eve shift to watch areas from Beloit to HJH to JYR. Another caveat to keep an eye on is potential for near critical fire weather over the far W tmrw aftn. Winds will be a bit brzy out of the S/SSW and high temps will be at or 1-2 deg above today. Moisture doesn`t change much as offshore flow continues over W Gulf of Mexico. Current RH progs are just above near-critical criteria around 26-28 percent, but situations like this usually trend drier with time. Kept mention out of the HWO, for now, but may need it for far W few counties. There`s also a non-zero chc for at least near-critical values later this week and into the weekend. Continued sunny skies, breezy winds, and very little chc for pcpn will allow drought conditions to steadily worsen, which will only add to fire wx concerns and allow for RHs to run on the low side, esp. since we`re past crop evapotranspiration season. A weak cold front will slide thru the area on Wed, but main push of colder air remains N, so really it`ll just be a wind shift and slightly less dry air. The ridge axis looks to remain progressive such that return flow sets up already by Thu aftn. Weaker mixing over E CWA may keep highs closer to 80F, but elsewhere should see mid-upper 80s. Model diffs for Fri appear to have resolved themselves as EC is no longer indicating clds and 60s. In fact, latest EC ensemble has jumped from mid-upper 60s for highs Fri to 80s on latest run. Pcpn chcs remain very limited thru the forecast. Blend tried to give slgt chc PoPs Thu night, but kept out for now as just don`t want to over promise rain at this point. It was only slgt chc over far N anyway. The next chc arrives at some point next weekend with a cold front, but the front doesn`t look terribly strong. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 VFR conditions are expected through the period with a few high level clouds and steady southerly winds near 10KTS expected through the overnight hours. Expect winds to increase again during the late morning hours Tuesday as a fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place across the region and mixing to near 850 MB is realized. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Rossi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
802 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 While few clouds are expected across central Illinois through Tuesday night, a smoke layer will persist and diminish the amount of sunshine on Tuesday. Pleasant nighttime sleeping temperatures are on tap, with lows in the 50 to 55 degree range tonight. Expect highs on Tuesday to be around 80 degrees across the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes with ridging extending back across the mid Missouri Valley. On the southern periphery of this ridge axis, fair conditions are in place across central Illinois with calm or light E/NE winds. Hazy conditions continue aloft due to smoke from western wildfires. No significant changes to the forecast with only minor adjustments to hourly trends in the near term. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Expansive smoke layer seen on satellite imagery this afternoon across the northern half of the CONUS. HRRR vertical smoke forecast shows this continuing through Tuesday, and forecast sky grids will reflect the smoke, despite minimal cloud cover. The smoke had earlier suppressed the diurnal temperature rise, but lower 80s are being observed south of I-70 where the smoke is thinner. With more of a south/southwest surface flow on Tuesday, highs around 80 should be more widespread. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Little in the way of rain is expected in the long term. Remnants of Hurricane Sally to remain well to our south, so any focus will be with the cold front passing through Wednesday night. Little moisture available to work with it, thanks to the hurricane. GFS and European model have been showing a wind of light rain, with latest trends shifting closer to the Ohio River. Will maintain some 20/30 type PoP`s mainly south of I-70 Wednesday and Wednesday night for now. Still some model variability in the southward extent of the colder air with the northern stream trough late week. The Canadian model is the coldest, with 850 mb temperatures around 3C by Friday evening, though in the middle time-wise. The European model delays the coldest air until Saturday evening, at which point the GFS is already showing a significant warming trend. Will favor more of a mid-point solution for now, which features highs in the mid-upper 60s and and lows dipping into the mid 40s by Saturday morning. All models show upper level ridging coming in late weekend and a warming trend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Fair weather is expected across central Illinois under the influence of high pressure over the Great Lakes. A thick layer of smoke is expected to persist at or above 150 in otherwise clear skies. Light east winds will veer to southerly on Tuesday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
710 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Dry, fall like conditions prevail through the middle of next week, with just a low chance of rain on Thursday. Tuesday morning will be quite chilly with lows in the lower and middle 40s. Temperatures then moderate to near 80 by Wednesday, followed by another reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Ridge axis of high pressure centered across Ontario will slowly drift across the region through Wednesday with the coldest night coming up tonight as strong radiational cooling, combined with advection of lower dewpoints from the NE, lead to lows likely under guidance values (AOA 50) in the middle 40s. Potential flies in the ointment could be lack of full decoupling of wind field or lack of full advection of low to mid 40 dewpoints upstream. Will ride with previous forecast thoughts and keep lows as is. Sky obscuration issues will be confined to either thin cirrus or high level smoke particulates that will continue to linger for the next several days across the region. HRRR smoke loops shows an increase in these levels as we get into tonight, which should allow for a nice sunset tonight. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...Dry conditions to persist well beyond the long term period. Brief shot of cold air arriving for the weekend... Unfortunately no hope for any meaningful rain into the long term and beyond period as best moisture for approaching cold front Weds night into Thurs remains trapped as ridge axis over our area settles south, trapping gulf and tropical related moisture. Remnants of Sally and its needed rain this far north will stay in areas that generally don`t need it. Spurious pops that have been placed into grids over past days have been removed. Only other item to note will be the quick shot of colder air still in store for Fri into Sat with highs struggling into the 60s and lows dropping well into the 40s and if ECMWF is correct maybe some mid and upper 30s (would be just shy of records, but close enough to make those with outdoor plants and flowers cringe). Will see how it unfolds through the week. Slow moderation of temps will occur as upper level heights slowly begin to increase. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 No noteworthy changes to the TAFs for this cycle. Diurnally- driven cumulus at FWA will quickly fade with sunset. Otherwise, high cirrus/smoky skies from western wildfires through the TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...Brown Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
903 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 A forecast update is in place for warmer temperatures across ncntl Nebraska using the RAP model plus bias correction. A veering low level jet tonight should funnel warmer air into ncntl Nebraska. The new forecast is a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast in that region. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The warm front that was responsible for some patchy fog this morning across far northern Nebraska has slowly moved northward into central South Dakota this afternoon. Thick smoke aloft from wildfires across the west coast is easily visible on satellite imagery over much of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Near critical fire conditions should continue across portions of the eastern Panhandle and northern Sandhills into the evening hours before RH recovery begins. RH values have largely stayed above criteria today, though winds have been gusting to around 30 MPH across much of the Panhandle and northern Sandhills. These winds will stay more elevated than the last couple of nights, and as such should help to keep low temps a little milder. A cool front slowly sags into the northeastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon hours Tuesday. RH values will drop into the lower teens to near 10 percent behind this front in areas west of Highway 61. Luckily winds will be lighter Tuesday afternoon than they were today, so will forego any fire headlines with this forecast package. This frontal passage will be dry with very little in the way of moisture to help drive any precipitation and should only result in a wind shift to the northwest as it passes through. This front should clear the CWA by Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Beyond Wednesday, an upper level trough is progged to drop into the Great Lakes/Ontario and will leave the CWA in broad northwesterly flow aloft into the weekend. There looks to be some moisture return Thursday as a mid-level warm front passes through the area. Unfortunately, this moisture return will not be all that deep, as recently upgraded Hurricane Sally will help to keep the Gulf closed off to much in the way of moisture advection northward. This being said, cannot rule out some showers/isolated thunderstorms across north central Nebraska in association with this front. QPFs unfortunately look to be on the lighter side at this time, which will not help with the ongoing drought/fire concern situation. Additionally, winds look to shift to more southwesterly Thursday afternoon across southwest Nebraska and will help to lead to very deep mixing and could lead to a return to elevated fire weather concerns. Upper level ridging looks to briefly build back in during the first half of the weekend before an upper level low begins to progress across the northern Plains. A cool front will likely pass through during the late weekend/early next week and could offer some precipitation chances, though timing and placement differences in model solutions leads to very low confidence at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 VFR conditions should prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds will pick up around KVTN in the early morning hours and around KLBF in the afternoon. Generally winds will be out of the south in southwest Nebraska. Winds will shift from the south to the southwest in northern Nebraska in the early morning. High altitude haze from western U.S. wildfires is expected to remain over western Nebraska but will not impact surface visibilities. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CDC SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Meltzer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1018 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this evening. Cooler and much drier high pressure will build in from the northwest through Thursday. Another cold front could approach the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1015 PM Mon...Cold front is offshore with a 1026 mb high over the Great Lakes ridging into the area from the north. Stratus continues to hold on over the region with lingering pool of low level moisture, and latest HRRR suggests these will hold through much of the night. Can`t rule out a sprinkle or two, but overall precip threat is over so dropped all PoPs for rest of the night. Prev disc...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across ENC ahead of a cold front this evening. Storm will remain below severe limits with meager CAPE and shear present. The showers should push south of the area by late evening with the front pushing offshore bringing clearing skies overnight. CAA will usher in a pleasant airmass with lows expected in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Long period swells from distant Hurricane Paulette will impact the beaches bringing large surf and potential ocean overwash, especially across the OBX. See Tides/Coastal flooding section below for more information. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 4 PM Monday...High pressure builds into the region from the north Tuesday bringing dry conditions and comfortable temperatures with dewpoints in the 60s. Significant drying in the column with PWs falling below 1" bringing plenty of sunshine, though will see sct afternoon cumulus with daytime heating. Highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM Mon...High pressure builds into the area through Wednesday, bring with it cool, settled weather. The next cold front will begin to approach the region late week and pull tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, increasing rain chances late week and into the weekend. Tuesday night through Wednesday...Very cool and comfortable weather expected through Wed with high pressure building in NW and dew points limited to the low-to-mid 60s. Highs will hover around 80 and overnight lows in the 60s inland and low-70s along the coast. A weak coastal trough looks to nudge its way ashore on Wednesday, providing an schc for an isolated shower. Guidance restricts any precip to the southern coast for now and have put in a low end schc POP to reflect this. Otherwise, will remain dry both days. Thursday through Saturday...Developing trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will begin to push high pressure offshore. An associated cold front will make its way towards the area and draw tropical moisture from the remnants of Sally. Exact timing and evolution is strongly dependent on the long-term forecast of Sally and its interaction with the front. At any rate, we can expect rain chances to begin increasing around Thursday/Friday with the system moving out at some point Saturday. Sunday...Cold front will stall offshore as high pressure builds in from the north. Will remain mostly dry with some rain chances along the coast depending on where the front lingers. Tight pressure gradient between the stationary boundary and building high pressure will make for a breezy NE flow. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 740 PM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across the TAF sites as a cold front sinks south towards the Crystal Coast. A decent band of lower clouds is developing behind the front but with drier air filtering in expect these to remain scattered in nature and expect VFR conditions to continue overnight. High pressure builds in from the north, reinforcing the drier airmass and for Tuesday. Cloud heights remain low tomorrow and can`t rule out a couple hours of MVFR conditions. Main concern is gusty northeast winds behind the front with a few gusts to 20 kt possible during the day. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Mon...VFR expected to prevail through Wed. Another cold front will begin approaching Thursday and draw up tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Sally, increasing the chance for POPs and sub- VFR cond through Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 400 PM Monday...Adverse marine conditions will persist through the short term with gusty post frontal winds as well as large swells impact the waters from Hurricane Paulette as it lifts north of Bermuda. A cold front will push south across the waters this evening with high pressure building in from the north Tuesday bringing N to NE winds around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt through Tuesday. Seas have build to 5-9 ft this afternoon and are expected to peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday morning, then gradually begin to subside in the afternoon. This long period swell component will make for especially dangerous conditions near shoals and crossing inlet bars. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Will continue to see strong swells from Paulette gradually subsiding through the week. Seas will gradually drop to 6-8 ft Tuesday night. NE winds will also diminish gradually to 10-15 kts Tuesday night. Seas will continue to improve through Wednesday as Paulette continues to pull away with waves dropping below SCA criteria for the northern and southern waters initially during the afternoon followed by the central waters Wed night. Waves will diminish to 3-5 ft Thu and Fri. Winds remain modest around 10-15 kts, veering E on Wednesday and SE Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift NNE late Friday and begin to pick up behind the front Friday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 PM Monday...Long period swell from distant Hurricane Paulette will continue to increase across the coastal waters through Tuesday morning. The wave runup from this long period swell will combine with already elevated water levels associated with above normal astronomical tides and persistent breezy to gusty northeast winds to bring the threat for ocean overwash around the times of high tides beginning this afternoon into midweek. The easterly swell will be most problematic for vulnerable east facing beaches including Pea Island to Rodanthe, Avon, the north end of Buxton, portions of Ocracoke Island, and Cape Lookout National Seashore north of Cape Lookout. The next two high tide cycles will be the most problematic for dune erosion and ocean overwash and have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for OBX Dare and Hyde through mid-morning Tuesday. The higher high tide occurs around 5:30 PM this afternoon, but long period swells will be peaking around the 6 AM Tuesday high tide, so want to cover both tide cycles. Swells will be subsiding through the day Tuesday and there is expected to be less of a threat during the Tuesday evening high tide cycle. Additionally, very strong rip currents and powerful breakers will occur at least into Wednesday. The high astronomical tide cycle will continue into early next week and could see minor flooding adjacent to the sounds around times of high tide from late Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. In addition, another large swell event may impact the beaches this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-137-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/MS SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...MS/ML MARINE...SK/ML TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
759 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 329 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2020 Its a relatively calm and uneventful weather day across the region. The sky has largely been devoid of clouds and temps have warmed into 50s and low 60s across the region. The interesting thing we`ve noted today has been the sky, where high level hazy has been present for most of the day, especially toward the south. Both the HRRR integrated smoke and GOES-16 Smoke Detection product highlights this region with high confidence smoke particles and looking at the pattern and tracing these particles backwards with a GFS hysplit run, these particulates originated in the Pacific Northwest. The overall pattern over the region is dominated by near zonal flow with a slight NW flow component across much of the northern CONUS. Within this flow pattern tonight, a shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies with developing surface low over the Northern Plains will progress eastward into the Upper Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow. Out ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through the region this evening, with theta-e advection, WAA/isentropic forcings increasing along the boundary as it lifts through. As a result, rain showers are expected to develop over Lake Superior. Additionally, with MUCAPE values near 500j/kg, some elevated thunderstorms will be possible. Models are in good agreement that the better forcings will remain over the Lake, but some light rain and drizzle can`t be ruled out over the region tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the WAA increasing, expecting overnight lows to bottom out largely in the 50s across the forecast area. Tomorrow, as the low moves into the region, strong LLJ and deeper daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds to reach down to the surface. At the moment, 30 mph gusts across the region are expected. The strong winds from the south will build waves on Lake Michigan and Bay of Green Bay, likely resulting in some minor lakeshore flooding. Will be issuing a lakeshore flood advisory for Delta and Schoolcraft county for this potential. Daytime highs tomorrow will climb to ~5-10F above normal. Expecting highs in the west in the upper 70s to near 80F in downslope locations. In the east, where Lake Michigan will moderate temps, highs near 70F are expected. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 412 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2020 Relatively benign longterm forecast ahead as broad troffing and negative height anomalies remain over the Great Lakes period through at least the end of the week. Models show a closed off mid-level low off the Pacific Coast helping keep the troubling ridge locked over the western CONUS as downstream troffing develops over the Great Lakes to start the longterm period. Sfc high pressure drops into the central CONUS Wednesday afternoon along the W to NW flow aloft, which should help keep things on the drier side. Cooler air funnels in Wednesday into Thursday, which should keep temperatures below normal through Saturday. As the closed low over Pacific pushes inland Thursday night, it shifts the western CONUS ridging eastward with it, which should help bring an increase in temps (back closer to normal) to the UP in the latter half of the weekend into the start of next week. Tuesday night into Wednesday, sfc low impacting the region on Tuesday pulls away into Quebec with weak pressure rises keeping things a little windy through the night, especially along the lakeshores. CAMs are suggesting light rain across the Keweenaw and east half of the UP, but model soundings aren`t as keen on the idea, so including some sprinkles across the Keweenaw and some drizzle across the east. Late in the night some CAA increases, which may bring some light rain showers, but moisture is still limited to the sfc. By Wednesday afternoon, 850mb temps fall to near 2C, bringing cooling temps, but moisture is generally too limited for precipitation. The rest of the week into the weekend, models are suggesting blo normal height anomalies bringing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees blo normal, at least through Friday. Widespread frost to freeze chances will be around Wednesday night into Friday as sfc high pressure moves into the region. The next chance for precipitation comes in the second half of the weekend as a shortwave moves through the central CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 758 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2020 Low pres tracking from ND tonight to Lake Superior by Tue evening will bring increasing s to sw winds tonight into Tue. The increasing low-level winds will transport a ribbon of low-level moisture n and ne tonight, possible leading to a short period of MVFR cigs at KCMX overnight. Downslope nature of the flow at KIWD may prevent a cig from developing there. At KSAW, a more favorable upslope southerly wind may result in developing MVFR cigs overnight falling further to IFR late night until mid morning Tue. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs to prevail outside of the aforementioned potential lower clouds. With a stable sfc based layer present, low-level jet overspreading the area will result in LLWS at all terminals overnight into Tue morning. Gusty sfc winds to 30+kt will follow once the LLWS breaks due to daytime heating and resultant building mixed layer. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 329 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2020 A warm front will lift through the lake tonight, helping to develop showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. As this front lifts through southerly winds will increase as low pressure approaches from the west. A tightening pressure gradient and strong low level jet will result in near 30kt gusts over mainly the eastern portion of the lake with some gale force gusts being possible, especially for higher platforms. As the gradient relaxes overnight Tuesday and winds become northwesterly, winds should lay down briefly, before they building again to near 30kts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ013-014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
212 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday night... Ridge of high pressure remains in place through the period. Winds remain gusty this afternoon, with Red Flag Warnings in place, see Fire Discussion below. Otherwise smoke and air quality appear to be biggest impact, especially with very large fire actively burning south of Twin Falls. Air Quality statements in place for portions of East Idaho. See Air Stagnation Discussion below. Have broadbrushed smoke and haze across all of East Idaho, more aggressive than HRRR Smoke concentration fields would indicate. Though, given the better upstream proximity to larger active fires in Oregon and western Idaho, central mountains the most likely to be impacted by smoke inundation. Thickness of smoke layer may have some downward impact on daytime high temperatures over the next few days. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Upper ridge amplifies Thursday and Thursday night for likely warmest period of the week. Models continue to favor Friday timing for progression of next cold front through East Idaho as Pacific trough swings inland. Winds increase in relation to the front, mainly for Friday and Saturday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft could have a variable impact on smoke issues headed into the weekend, but increased winds and potential onset of showers and generally isolated thunderstorms Friday will definitely complicate the forecast. Unsettled conditions continue through Saturday, while cooler temperatures remain through the weekend. DMH && .AVIATION... The main concern for aviation will continue to be regional wildfire smoke over the next several days, with otherwise "clear" skies, no precip, and no significant wind as a ridge of high pressure remains in control. A general SW flow will remain in place across SE Idaho to the NW of the high pressure center, a synoptic pattern that will generally favor continued advection of smoke into the region from massive fires in CA/OR with potential deterioration each night under nocturnal inversions. Fluctuations in the SW flow may actually modify the source region of this smoke, however. For KBYI/KSUN, that source region will likely remain CA/OR, but for KPIH/KIDA/KDIJ, the flow may at times tap into a bit "cleaner" air from UT/NV, which could allow for some slight improvement between this afternoon and Tues afternoon. This idea is hinted at in the 12z HRRR smoke model guidance. In general, we blended current vsby obs toward slow but slight improvement in the 18z TAF package, but smoke is tricky and forecast confidence is low. Any terminal could continue to flirt with MVFR vsbys at times (especially KSUN), but generally 5-8 miles. Once winds shift into the SW at KBYI this eve, local smoke from the rapidly growing Badger Fire SW of Oakley may begin to directly impact that terminal too. Will continue to monitor. - KSmith && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 PM this eve for gusty winds/low RH across Zones 475/476. Very dry conditions are expected to continue through Wed, with min RH values generally 7-14% regionwide each afternoon and very poor overnight recovery above nocturnal inversions. In fact, mid/upper slopes may not rise above 20%. A generally SW wind flow will remain in place as well to the NW of a high pressure center (with diurnal terrain-driven modifications each day depending on location), but speeds will relax a bit for the next several days (gusts generally less than 20 MPH). SO, very dry fuels, the very low RH profile, and a Haines Index of 6 continue to spell a very critical fire wx pattern, with winds the limiting factor for reaching Red Flag criteria. At this time (and after collaboration with a couple neighboring offices), we will headline these conditions in the FWF, but hold shy of issuing a Red Flag. By Thurs/Fri, models show reasonable agreement in a low pressure system tracking east across the nrn Rockies and breaking down the ridge, and the increased pressure gradient may support an increase in winds. This may overlap with continued critical RH values Thurs, before RHs start to moisten Fri. Model guidance is holding (perhaps suspiciously) light on the winds at this time, so we want to watch`s too early to tell if Red Flag criteria will be met. Stay tuned. This low will bring a cold front by Fri night, resulting in significantly cooler temps/higher RH values for Sat/Sun. Showers are possible Fri/Sat as well, although early indications suggest QPF of less than 0.20 inches. - KSmith && .AIR STAGNATION...Wildfire smoke remains the primary driver for air quality concerns across East Idaho under influence of strong high pressure. DEQ Air Quality statements remain in place for portions of East Idaho. As of this afternoon, very large and very active fire south of Twin Falls producing a pronounced smoke plume per satellite and radar imagery. Expect this plume to worsen conditions tonight and into tomorrow, at least locally through the Eastern Magic Valley, Lower Snake Plain, and nearby lower elevation areas. Otherwise, central mountains in best proximity to receiving smoke from upstream fires in western Idaho and Oregon, and thus lower elevations have the greatest chance of significantly lowered air quality. Expect these conditions to continue through the week. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ475-476. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 .UPDATE... Went ahead and removed pops from ongoing forecast based on latest radar trends. Surface ridge to the north to maintain light northeast winds overnight. Otherwise, aside from high cirrus fingers across northeast Louisiana along the western fringes of Sally, mostly clear skies expected through the night. Current forecast is on track, no major adjustments at this time. /05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 713 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ UPDATE... Just sent a quick update to extend widely scattered shower and thunderstorm wording for the next couple of hours across portions of north Louisiana and deep east Texas as weak banding features begin to shift west across the region. /05/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ AVIATION... Mainly dry conditions to prevail across area terminals through the forecast period ending 16/00Z. MVFR ceilings possible across all terminal sites near daybreak with VFR conditions prevailing otherwise. Otherwise, northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots overnight to increase to 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts on Tuesday. /05/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Diurnal instability is finally overcoming subsidence northwest of Hurricane Sally, and isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing over Northeast Louisiana and Southeast Arkansas. Additional development and movement southwestward is expected this afternoon. The latest HRRR suggests a few showers may develop as far northwest as Southeast Oklahoma, but most of the convection will be southeast of a line from Lufkin TX to El Dorado AR. The showers and storms should quickly end after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. As Sally very slowly approaches the Gulf coast, we`ll begin to see increasing influences on our weather on Tuesday. Northeasterly winds will increase to between 10 and 15 kts areawide with gusts near 20 kts across North Central Louisiana. Good chances for scattered diurnal convection associated with Sally are expected Tuesday afternoon across most of our Louisiana parishes with the exception of the far northwest corner. Similar to the last couple of days, being this far removed from the center, showers and thunderstorms should once again gradually dissipate during the evening hours. Hurricane Sally is expected to make landfall Tuesday night. CN LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/ Starting 12z Wednesday...As we head into the long term period, Hurricane Sally will be in the process of moving inland somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. We will see some deeper moisture on the far western fringes of Sally, which will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, Sally will continue to track towards the northeast across Mississippi and Alabama. As Sally pushes to the northeast, an upper trough over the Southern Plains will begin to push off to the east as well. As the trough pushes to the east, we should see showers and thunderstorms redevelop Thursday afternoon across the area. Drier and cooler conditions are expected across much of the area as we head into the weekend. Temperatures Friday through Sunday will be up to 5 degrees below seasonable normals. Friday will see high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s across the north to the upper 80s to the south. On Saturday, areas along and north of I-30 will struggle to get out of the 70s, with similar conditions on Sunday. Looks like it will be a good weekend to get out and enjoy the weather. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 90 72 88 / 0 10 10 30 MLU 73 90 72 88 / 10 40 20 50 DEQ 69 87 69 86 / 0 10 10 40 TXK 69 87 70 84 / 0 10 10 30 ELD 70 88 70 86 / 0 20 10 40 TYR 71 88 69 87 / 0 10 0 20 GGG 71 89 70 88 / 0 10 0 20 LFK 73 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 05/20/33