Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 09/11/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
924 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 .UPDATE... Quick update to lower temps overnight across the board and also to taper PoPs to isolated everywhere except the marine zones. Temps at 9 PM had already eclipsed lows for some locations, with a refreshing 69 degrees at CRP thanks to a break in low clouds. Temps may not fall much more than this as some additional low clouds should redevelop over the Coastal Plains later tonight. Otherwise, rain chances appear sparse everywhere except along a stationary front anchored from just E of Matagorda Bay south to Buoy 20. Latest NAM and HRRR keep this boundary largely fixed through Fri morning with little in the way of convection drifting farther west toward our coastal counties. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ AVIATION... Good confidence in MVFR with occasional IFR CIGs holding tight at COT and LRD through much of Friday, with less confidence in low CIGs farther east. The leading edge of VFR was hanging just E of ALI at 630 PM behind some showers, but models are mixed on how persistent this VFR window will behave overnight. Generally we expect some lower CIGs toward daybreak from VCT-CRP-ALI, but this timing could be several hours off in either direction. VFR is likely by midday over the eastern terminals with some spotty showers at best. Expect steady N winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 89 74 92 76 / 20 20 20 10 10 Victoria 68 90 72 92 74 / 20 20 10 10 10 Laredo 65 84 72 91 74 / 20 20 20 20 20 Alice 68 89 73 93 74 / 20 20 20 20 10 Rockport 71 90 76 93 79 / 20 20 20 10 20 Cotulla 66 87 71 91 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 Kingsville 68 90 74 92 75 / 20 20 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 72 89 78 92 80 / 20 20 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ MCZ/93...SHORT TERM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1115 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push south of the area later tonight. Tropical moisture that brought portions of Southeastern PA in excess of one inch of rain today will drift northeast of the region and toward Long Island and the Southern New England Coast tonight and Friday. High pressure will slide across southeastern Ontario and into northern New York State by late Friday. This weather feature will push dry air south into the state during the day Friday. An upper level trough and associated front are likely to push into Pennsylvania Sunday. An extended period of dry and early autumnal weather will occur for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A weak cold front extended from KBGM to KUNV and KAOO at 0045Z and will drift slowly SE overnight. Latest RAP model indicates a fairly strong area of 925-850 mb Theta-E convergence consolidating over the Central and Western Poconos along with parts of the Middle Susq Valley between about 05-10Z Friday. This Model highlights this feature the best while the HREFV2 shows a similar area of showers and possible areas of 0.10-0.25 of an inch of rain near and just to the south of a KSEG to KAVP line. Elsewhere, and showers should be sparse and brief overnight and mainly near and to the SE of I-81 in Scent PA. An area of mainly clear skies was seen on nighttime cloud microphysics channel - immediately behind the sfc front, followed by a transition to widespread bkn-ovc stratocu clouds across the NW zones. These clouds remain shallow and warm, so no measurable precip is expected. Min temps early Friday will vary from the mid 50s across the northern tier to the mid and upper 60s in the Southeast. Light and variable wind will become NNW at 4-7 mph late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Drier air should filter in from the north and mix down from above. The lower clouds will break up over most of the area. We could see a big drop in Td if we can mix higher than 3-4kft. 8H temps get down to around 13C, but we may not get up to 8H with the mixed- layer. We will hold the line on maxes with nr 70F in the nrn mtns and just below 80F in the srn valleys. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday night and most of Saturday continue to look dry. any showers won`t mover into the Western Mtns and Laurel Highlands until late in the day Saturday, or more likely after dusk as a warm front lifts NE from the Ohio River Valley. Pops increase to the Sctd-Likely range Sat night and early Sunday, with the lowest chances of rain being across the Susq Valley and points east, given increasing low-mid level warm advection. Best forcing lifts northeast of our area, while the better airmass is to the southwest. The upper level trough and frontal boundary moves east and south of the area rather fast clip, so later Sunday night into early Monday, any left over showers mainly in the far southeast. Monday into late Wednesday looks dry at this point, and cooler. Perhaps some showers after this with secondary push of cooler air behind returned southwest flow. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lower clouds return overnight as winds turn northerly. IFR most likely in JST/BFD, while MVFR likely elsewhere after 06z. These will then break up in the morning - quickly over the east and more gradually over the west. Outlook... Fri-Sat AM...Mainly VFR conditions expected. AM valley fog poss. Sat PM-Sun...Lowered flight categories possible with SCT SHRA/TSRA. Mon-Tues...Mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...Dangelo/RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
926 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Low level moisture and low cloudiness has led to patchy areas of drizzle across most of the forecast area this evening. So will a drizzle mention going for the rest of the evening as low level moisture remains high. Seeing more widespread rain moving north across western OK, at this time, and expect this area of rain to slowly lift N-NE into the forecast area late tonight or by early Friday morning as main upper low over the Rockies continues to lift to the E-NE. Latest RAP doesn`t show much instability as this area of rain lifts north, so thinking mainly rain as it moves across the area. So plan on taking out all thunder mention for the overnight hours. As the upper low lifts E-NE, expect to see a scouring of the low level moisture initially over the high plains and eventually from west to east across KS during the day on Fri. Ketcham && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 A cold and stable post-frontal regime was firmly entrenched across the Central Plains states today with light north winds and abundant cloud cover keeping high temperatures well below climate normals for early September. Another batch of rain currently over the West Texas Rolling Plains is progged to lift north and east towards the area tonight bringing another round of light rain to much of south central and southeast Kansas. Areas of drizzle will also be possible, especially in areas that do not receive light rain. The mid/upper trough over the Rockies will begin to lift north and east toward the Northern Plains on Friday allowing light southerly flow to return to the Central Plains region. This will result in moderating temperatures across the area although highs will remain well below normal for early September with values topping out in the mid and upper 60s. Low pops were maintained over far southeast Kansas although the best chances should be weighted early in the period with some sunshine possible across parts of central and south central KS before the day ends. Sat-Sun...Dry and pleasant weather conditions are anticipated as we move through the weekend. High temperatures are expected to climb to around 80 for most areas with lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 Tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue for much if not all of the upcoming week as temperatures slowly moderate becoming near normal toward the end of the period. There remains some uncertainty towards the end of the period as the ECMWF drives another sharp cold front southward towards the region while the GFS maintains mid/upper ridging across the Southeastern U.S. leading to increasing uncertainty as we move towards the latter portion of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 MVFR to IFR cigs will continue for all TAF locations overnight into the morning hours on Fri. Expect most locations to see low end MVFR cigs around 1200 feet AGL, but as the overnight progresses, widely scattered showers may move north out of srn OK, and move into the area. So will go with a VCSH for this chance. But as the SHRA move in, saturation will lead to cigs dropping into the IFR range around 900 feet AGL. Will not go with any vsby restrictions until the SHRA materialize. Main upper low currently over the Rockies will finally sweep E-NE of the area on Fri, with a general scouring out of the low level moisture by around 18z/Fri. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 54 67 57 82 / 50 40 0 0 Hutchinson 52 66 54 82 / 40 30 0 0 Newton 52 66 56 81 / 50 40 10 0 ElDorado 53 65 57 80 / 60 50 10 10 Winfield-KWLD 54 66 57 81 / 60 50 10 10 Russell 51 68 54 79 / 40 30 0 0 Great Bend 50 67 53 79 / 40 30 0 0 Salina 52 67 55 81 / 40 30 0 0 McPherson 51 65 54 81 / 40 30 0 0 Coffeyville 56 65 59 81 / 60 50 20 10 Chanute 55 65 58 81 / 60 50 20 10 Iola 55 65 58 81 / 60 50 30 10 Parsons-KPPF 56 65 59 81 / 60 50 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Ketcham SHORT TERM...MWM LONG TERM...MWM AVIATION...Ketcham
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
252 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Easterly winds through the Gorge will end tonight as a trough of low pressure in the Willamette Valley shifts east of the Cascades. Widespread dense wildfire smoke and poor air quality will likely persist into early next week. Onshore flow returns to the region Friday and into the weekend bringing progressively cooler air inland along with increased moisture levels. A trough of low pressure early next week returns chances for showers to the region. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...Offshore flow is weakening across the area. Surface analysis shows the thermal trough over the interior valley, south across the Rogue Valley into northern CA. Light east winds from the Gorge will continue to ease tonight and it`ll help keep parts the Portland/Vancouver metro area from the worse air quality experienced to the north and south. By Friday morning Portland/Vancouver areas will likely see poor air quality as the Gorge outflow ends. HRRR smoke model and forecast soundings indicate smoke will be trapped at low levels into Monday. Even for the coastal areas as there is a lot of smoke over the waters that will be advected back onshore. Models have not been performing well with regard to temperatures with the thick smoke cover, so used persistence as a forecast for the near term. So instead of 90s for the interior valley it will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Coastal areas will be cooler as a southerly wind reversal has brought a shallow marine layer there. The axis of the upper ridge shifts inland Friday and Saturday while weakening slightly. Low level onshore flow will begin to spread marine air, gradually bringing cooler air inland with rising moisture levels.The upper ridge is replaced by a southwest flow aloft Saturday night and Sunday as a trough over the east Pacific shifts closer. This will strengthen the onshore flow, bringing even cooler marine air inland along with morning marine clouds into the Willamette and Lower Columbia Valleys. && .LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...The early part on next week brings even cooler temperatures and the promise of some precipitation as an offshore trough approaches. The operational GFS is the most progressive with the upper trough shifting inland on Wednesday, but he ECMWF and GEM are tending to keep the low further offshore with the forecast area on the edge of the precipitation chances. For now will weight the forecast toward ECMWF/GEM and ECMWF ensemble solution since the current GEFS operational ensemble member on the wetter side of the ensemble mean. On Monday it looks like a warm front should brush the forecast area with some light rain as models are in similar agreement. By Tue afternoon if the GFS pans out we may see a slight chance for thunderstorms over the interior, from the interior valley to the Cascades. Confidence is low at this time given the differences in the models but is worth mentioning at this time. The remainder of the week will have a chance of some light precipitation but as the upper trough nears or moves across the forecast area.With greater marine influence, expect temperatures next week to be more seasonable. && .AVIATION...Covering the 00Z TAF issuance...Little to no improvement across the region as smoke continues. Reduced visibility west of the Cascades will continue for the next 24 hrs. The OR/CA thermal low will continue to extend north over the Willamette Valley bringing light and variable winds across the region. Models still have little to no grasp on ceiling or visibility conditions so persistence should still be expected. Winds will have a southerly component to them so dense smoke from central and southern Oregon will move north. All inland sites aside from the Portland metro area are in MVFR to IFR criteria. A smoke deck around 025 is being observed across much of the Willamette Valley with visibility between 0.5 and 2SM. The southerly surge off the coast will continue to deepen the marine boundary layer. Slight onshore winds will bring marine air inland, however air off the coast is filled with smoke from the east winds. Southerly stratus will be mixed with CA wildfire smoke as well as smoke that has been drifting over the ocean. Current conditions along the coast will continue to be IFR to LIFR throughout the day. Refer to for detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. KPDX and APPROACHES...Light and variable winds are expected for the next 24 hrs. Smoke will continue and worsen throughout the day as winds push smoke north. A mix of IFR to MVFR conditions are likely going into this evening. -BPhillips && .MARINE...Southerly surge of stratus will continue up the coast going into this evening and through tomorrow morning. South winds will be light with gusts less than 15 kt. There are multiple small swell trains in the Pacific that range between 1 to 2 ft at 13-15 sec. Therefore, wind waves will be the primary component of significant wave heights that will stay below 5 ft. The primary hazard will be the smoke coupled with the stratus deck moving north around 300 ft. This will reduce visibility along the nearshore below 1 mile in some places. Patchy smoke is likely out to 60nm. A front is expected to move across the waters Monday night into Tuesday which may bring SCA winds across the area. -BPhillips && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ Interact with us via social media:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1017 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020 .UPDATE... To tweak a few low temps and pops/wx for the overnight. && .SHORT TERM.../Tonight/ Still some very small, occasional showers popping up mainly in SW AR with the stalled frontal boundary lying over E TX. Lowered a few NE TX temps for the overnight with fair skies and some room to fall before saturation. HRRR doesn`t really high light much area wise, but a few QPF bubbles in SW AR and SE TX are to be noted. Amounts from any showers will be trace for a few hundreths is all. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex terminals, a weak fropa is drifting Eastward across Eastern TX from near KOCH to near KSHV to KTXK. We may see a few vicinity showers overnight and once more thunderstorm coverage will ramp up in the heart of our area during peak heating 18-24Z again on Friday. In fact, the boundary will be washing out in place for the most part into the weekend. Light N winds will continue as our terminals with gusts near any heavy downpours for Friday with similar coverage for this weekend too. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/ The recently advertised frontal boundary has finally made it into the region today. However, it has only progressed as far east as East Texas and SE Oklahoma, generally along a line from Idabel Oklahoma to Gilmer Texas to near Jacksonville Texas. Unfortunately, for those expecting cooler conditions will be disappointed as the frontal boundary is not expected to move much more to the east as a Bermuda Ridge extending from the East Coast of the US westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley will halt its progression. Due to the shallow nature of the boundary, post frontal low cigs have moved in place and should hold for the remainder of today into Friday. The cloud cover along with the post frontal airmass has resulted in cooler conditions, as most post frontal locations have remained in the 70s today. Ahead of the boundary, much warmer conditions exist, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Also, with less cloud cover, differential heating has resulted in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of Deep East Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Southwest Arkansas. Look for this trend to continue over the next several hours, with thunderstorms eventually diminishing by late this evening. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60s for areas behind the boundary, with low 70s across the remainder of the region. By Friday, upper ridging will continue to build into the region resulting in the frontal boundary mixing out. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again with the best chances near the residual boundary. The range in afternoon temperatures will remain as well, as highs will struggle to reach the mid 80s in areas behind the previous boundary as low ceilings should hold in place in those areas. The remainder of the region will see temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s again. Convection should be less in coverage tomorrow afternoon, with activity diminishing around sunset. /20/ LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ To begin the weekend, the closed low will continue filling as it proceeds across the Northern Great Plains. The cold front trailing this low will continue to instigate convection throughout next week as it dissipates. By the middle of next week, southerly flow will return as the upper-level ridge continues to build in from the west, allowing for a more active seabreeze, diurnal heating, and thus, more scattered convection. Temperatures have been adjusted to be slightly milder later next week as PoPs are slightly elevated in the same time frame. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 90 71 91 / 20 20 0 10 MLU 71 93 73 92 / 10 20 0 30 DEQ 68 84 68 88 / 20 20 0 10 TXK 69 86 69 88 / 20 20 0 10 ELD 69 90 69 90 / 10 20 0 10 TYR 65 84 68 88 / 10 20 0 10 GGG 69 86 69 91 / 20 20 0 10 LFK 71 89 71 93 / 20 20 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/20/16