Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/25/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Limited changes needed to the late evening update. Many may have noticed a hazy sunset this evening from western wildfire smoke. With a westerly flow aloft expect smoke and hazy skies to continue into at least tomorrow. Some attention was given to pops for tonight into tomorrow. Weak vort max moving over a flattening ridge may bring a few thunderstorms across the northwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. From there a weak warm front sets up for Tuesday bringing more warm conditions and perhaps a few thunderstorms. A weak cold front then moves through later in the day Tuesday through Tuesday night which may be the focus for more thunderstorms. With ample shear and instability an isolated storm through Tuesday may be strong to severe. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Limited updates needed this evening. Increased some cloud cover based on satellite trends. Wildfires across the west also continue to bring some smoky haze to the area, and could continue tonight into tomorrow. Chances for an isolated thunderstorm remains on track across the northwest later tonight, with widespread chances possible for much of the area tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Surface high pressure centered across eastern North Dakota will drift east tonight as a lee side surface low pressure forms in eastern Montana. We expect skies to be mostly clear this evening. Upper level water vapor imagery shows an impulse moving northeast across Oregon and Idaho. This will move northeast and bring a slight change for thunderstorms to northwest North Dakota before sunrise and Tuesday. There should be sufficient cape and shear for widely scattered thunderstorms in the morning. By Tuesday afternoon, 40kt shear and cape as high as 1500 should support scattered thunderstorms with a few possible severe across much of west and central North Dakota. Upper level water vapor imagery shows a weak impulse moving northeast across eastern Oregon and Idaho. This will move northeast and should bring a slight change for thunderstorms to northwest North Dakota around Sunrise. Return flow ahead of the surface trough will bring an h850 thermal ridge into western North Dakota. This will support highs into the mid 90s west to teh mid 80s east. The HRRR integrated smoke model brings widespread smoke back into the northern plains tonight and Tuesday. Most of the smoke is expected to remain aloft. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The chances for a significant cooling trend appear reasonable by the end of the extended period as a pattern shift will bring a cool h500 low into the picture across western and central Canada. Midweek shortwave energy will flatten the h500 ridge over the northern plains, with a general cooling trend back to near normal temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday and into the weekend. Much cooler weather is possible Monday. For precipitation, it looks like the best chances will arrive Wednesday night through Thursday night. The threat for severe weather will be at least marginal for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 High pressure will maintain VFR conditions across the region. There is a small chance of a thunderstorm in the KXWA area after 25/06z. Confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this point. More thunderstroms are then possible after 25/18z across the entire forecast area. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...Anglin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
518 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Temperatures across the region continue to soar after morning cloud cover left a question mark on whether or not sites would be able to reach forecast highs. Portions of the North Platte River Valley will see the highest temperatures where Scottsbluff and Torrington are siting at 99F at this hour. Numerous sites across the CWA are approaching record highs. Tuesday afternoon will present much of the same with upper-90s to triple digits in the Nebraska Panhandle, mid-90s across the Wyoming High Plains, and upper-80s west of the Laramie Range as 700mb temperatures sit around 17-19C across the region. Scattered cumulus has been building over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges since midday as a few showers have developed. Limited CAPE and weak shear should result in short-lived storms through early evening. Main threat could be gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms with limited boundary layer moisture. A few storms could form off the Central Laramie Range pushing into the Wyoming High Plains, however the NAMNest and HRRR are lacking any agreement with the later being slightly more aggressive with convection. Tuesday afternoon shows much of the same with afternoon convection mainly being focused along the high terrain. LCLs reach above the freezing level supporting the potential for strong downburst winds. Heading into Tuesday night, 500 mb heights begin to lower with the suppression of the upper level ridge overhead which will bring a pattern chance across the region heading into mid-to-late week. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The anticipated change from hot/dry to cooler/unsettled weather pattern commences Wednesday as the upper ridge is displaced to the south and east with the passage of shortwave energy along the international border. Southwest flow aloft will open the subtropical moisture tap with precipitable water increasing to around an inch later this week. Upper level disturbances riding northeast across the region will provide the lift for scattered mainly afternoon/evening convection into the first half of the weekend. Weak low level shear and MUCAPES below 1000 j/kg will limit the severe threat. QPF amounts on the order of a quarter to half inch will provide minor relief from the ongoing drought. A cold front is progged to move through Friday, replacing highs in the 80s and 90s Wednesday and Thursday with 70s and 80s for the weekend. Models are hinting at a significantly cooler airmass arriving late Sunday and early Monday, with 700mb temperatures dropping to -2 to -4C. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 518 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 VFR prevailing at all terminals through the period though some light amounts of smoke may lower visibilities to around 7 miles at times in a few spots. A few showers and a brief tstm affecting the area from about KLAR to KCYS early this evening. Otherwise mainly mid level clouds over southeast Wy this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Hot and dry weather continues this week with afternoon temperatures expected to be well above normal Monday and Tuesday. Most of the Nebraska Panhandle could temperatures rise into the triple digits keeping relative humidity fairly low around 15 to 20 percent. However, aside from shower and thunderstorm outflow gusts, winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon initiating over the high terrain in southeast Wyoming. Storms will be short- lived, but cloud-to-ground lightning is definitely a concern with the dry soil conditions. More scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday with better chances for precipitation continuing later in the week. Long-range guidance has begun indicating the possibility for a strong cold frontal passage early next week that could bring relief to the hot and dry conditions as of late with an extended period of below normal temperatures. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MB LONG TERM...MAJ AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...MB
National Weather Service Eureka CA
332 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Tuesday morning, primarily for areas north of Cape Mendocino. Thunderstorm potential will then be limited mainly to Trinity County from Tuesday afternoon onward, with seasonably hot conditions inland and marine cloudiness at the coast. && .DISCUSSION...A plume of mid level moisture with origins in the tropical Pacific continues to advect northward across NW California this afternoon. This is generating isolated to scattered shower activity north of Cape Mendocino, although these showers have produced little rainfall. Elevated instability has remained a bit too meager to support thunderstorm development so far today, but cannot rule out a few lightning strikes through this evening if any breaks of sunshine can contribute to further destabilization. Cancelled the Red Flag Warning across southern portions of Lake and Mendocino Counties as what limited thunderstorm threat remains has shifted north of those areas. Meanwhile, another subtle disturbance to the south will move into the area tonight and has the potential to bring one last round of nocturnal convection. This is supported by an uptick in offshore lightning activity noted well to our southwest this afternoon, but confidence remains low in how this feature will evolve as it spreads northward overnight. Have maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning, with the best potential once again remaining over the northern half of the area. We should settle into a more benign pattern from Tuesday onward as the area remains in southwest flow aloft on the periphery of a broad eastern Pacific trough. Thunderstorm potential for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon looks to be confined to Trinity and possibly far NE Mendocino County where surface destabilization will be maximized. Inland temperatures will generally be in the 90s with marine cloudiness continuing to moderate temperatures near the coast. /CB && .AVIATION...By midday, the LIFR conditions remained stubborn, with only brief windows of IFR. Light rain was reported at KACV, with only trace accumulation. Scattering was eventually realized at KACV into the early afternoon. A persistence forecast is in store through the period, with more LIFR Cigs and Vis with fog. Southerly flow throughout the column has once again advected smoke into KUKI with significant reductions in visibility. HRRR Experimental Smoke guidance depicts chances for improvement by tomorrow morning, but with another return through the early afternoon. Chances for isolated elevated thunderstorms/showers at the coastal terminals will remain through the early morning hours of Tuesday, mainly for Humboldt, Trinity and Del Norte counties. Profiler data shows a somewhat more compact marine layer, as a upper disturbance weakens on approach. The marine layer may deepen some overnight in response, potentially allowing ceilings to lift somewhat. A better defined trough will move into the area Wednesday with better chances for marine layer deepening, with possibly inhibited typical diurnal scattering. /JW && .MARINE...Breezy northerly winds will continue across the outer waters today, generating short period seas of around 8 to 10 feet. Northerly winds will generally continue through the forecast period, with the strongest winds continuing across the northern outer waters. The inland thermal trough will occasionally venture closer to the coast, providing lighter winds and occasionally southerly flow reversals along the immediate coast, particularly S of Cape Mendocino. Advisory level northerly winds and seas are expected to continue for the outer waters for the foreseeable future, slowly strengthening as the week progresses. /JW && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms remain a possibility this afternoon and evening, primarily for areas north of Cape Mendocino. Another weak disturbance approaching from the south will maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas overnight. Additional isolated thunderstorm development may occur over portions of Trinity county during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. /CB/Garner && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ201-203-204- 211-212-277-283. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
854 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .DISCUSSION... EVENING UPDATE: Changes this evening were focused around updating hourly clouds and wind fields to the latest model data. That being said most of the hourly tweaks were minor and will likely not have a significant affect on the forecast. GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: A particularly hot and especially dry day today has sparked a couple of small fires in the area. HRRR Smoke keeps smokes over NE Montana for another couple days. A series of frontal passages is in store for the rest of this week with varying degrees of intensity. The first will arrive tonight with a very isolated chance of a thunderstorm. The boundary layer is still quite dry, therefore any thunderstorm may produce dry lightning and locally gusty, erratic winds. SPC has placed NE MT in a general thunderstorms category. The wind forecast has been especially challenging today as gusts have been higher than models are producing. The next trough will sweep west to east Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Tropical moisture from the southwestern US will stream over on upper southwesterly flow to the area and while there is enough to allow convective initiation, the boundary layer will once again be fairly dry and similar hazards of dry lightning and winds. Storms may become more dry as it progresses east. SPC has placed the area into a marginally severe category for Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week, confidence is remains low for the intensity of the trough and associated winds. Models such as GFS and ECMWF have a jet streak directly over NE MT, bringing a gusty system Thursday night into Friday, however, NAM has the trough and associated jet streak too far north to see much of the impacts. NBM also shows a relatively weak system as well with more moisture chances further SE. Temperatures will gradually cool down and by the weekend, expect much cooler temperatures, especially with the arrival of a deep Alaskan low will drop into Montana on Sunday. CPC has higher probabilities of cooler and wetter weather in the week to two week outlook, which will hopefully provide relief to the recent abnormally dry weather and the heightened fire risks. Roxy && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED AT 03Z FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR SYNOPSIS: A few isolated thunderstorms are possible during the overnight hours in the area. Tuesday starts out dry with hazy skies due to wildfire smoke from local and out of state fires. Another chance of thunderstorms approaches from the west by the late afternoon hours. WINDS: SE 5-15 kts this evening, becoming NW 10-15 kts Tuesday mid-morning. Veering to the north Tuesday evening. RMB/GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
710 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Updated the forecast this evening to remove showers/t-storms northwest. Relatively high based showers and mid-level inversion along with weak wind shear producing little more than virga as there is plenty of dry air below cloud base. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Expecting another hot one today thanks to high pressure aloft and a relatively unchanging pattern. Today continues the trend of above average highs with mid to upper 90s across the board. Breezy winds will be a slight relief from the heat but not much, as they continue to be warm southerly winds. Looking at satellite we have sunny but hazy skies all across the area this afternoon. Smoke from wildfires in California and Colorado is the cause of the haziness (and the stunning sunrises and sunsets too!). Thankfully the smoke is mainly in the upper levels (for now) for our area, and therefore has less of an impact on air quality at the surface. However, that being said...looking at the HRRR Near-Surface Smoke model, it looks like areas northwest of a line from Beaver City to Ravenna to Greeley, NE could see more smoke near the surface, but the air quality index should still remain in the "good" category according to AirNow. Tomorrow will look very similar to today (and the last several days) with highs in the mid 90s, overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, and more breezy winds. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 As the main ridging aloft begins to broaden and spread out across most of the central CONUS we will see the jet stream shift further north to more over the Canadian border. This is not a good thing for anyone hoping for a pattern change any time soon. With the jet stream this far north, we are essentially cut off from any significant changes in flow. This means conditions will remain rather static until the high begins to break down and we re-enter the mainstream flow. Highs are expected to remain in the 90s through Thursday, which would make for 8 consecutive days in the 90s. This would be the longest stretch of 90s since the beginning of June. Wednesday a tropical disturbance looks to make landfall over the Gulf Coast but is not expected to affect our area. The remnants of Laura will then rejoin the main stream flow as the ridge collapses thanks to an upper level trof that will then swing down from the northwest. This trof will usher in a front on Friday and looks to bring about a shift to more seasonal weather. However this is still a ways out and much is likely to change between now and then. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Main issue tonight will be wind shear during the overnight hours between mainly 06Z and 12Z. This is a fairly strong signal and I have lowered the height of LLWS a bit from the previous forecast to 800 ft. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Heinlein SHORT TERM...Shawkey LONG TERM...Shawkey AVIATION...Heinlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
438 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .UPDATE...Air quality section updated. && .SYNOPSIS... Continuation of smoke across the forecast area for the next few days due to widespread fires throughout California. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon over the Sierra Crests as remnant moisture remains in place. After today, the forecast is to remain dry with near normal afternoon highs. && .DISCUSSION... A few thunderstorms occurred overnight as moisture from the remnants of Genevieve supported instability over the mountains and foothills. However, this activity waned over the Southern Sierra Nevada by early morning. Additional thunderstorms will be focused mainly to the north of our forecast area this afternoon, but an isolated storm or two will be possible over the Sierra Crests. In terms of valley smoke today, the HRRR smoke model is still depicting smoke spreading across the forecast area for the time being as area fires continue to burn. Afternoon highs across the San Joaquin Valley will remain a few degrees above normal under the influence of the desert southwest ridge, but will drop to near normal tomorrow as the ridge weakens. A trough of low pressure will approach the California Coastline by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This may influence high temperatures down a degree or two more for the latter portion of this work week, and hopefully will remove some of the smoke that has been plaguing the valley by Thursday or Friday. Through the weekend and into early next week, only oscillations of a few degrees are forecast for afternoon highs along with no precipitation as dry flow aloft prevails. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR visibilities and ceilings can be expected in the San Joaquin Valley for at least the next 24 hours due to smoke and haze. Haze will reduce visibilities to as low as 1 mile in the San Joaquin Valley at times. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada crests through 02Z Tuesday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for the Central California. For details, please see SFOAQAHNX. On Tuesday August 25 2020... Unhealthy in Fresno... Kings... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest. Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern County. Further information is available at && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Bollenbacher aviation....Bollenbacher
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 H5 analysis this morning had a broad area of high pressure located over the Four Corners. Ridging extended north of the high into central portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. West of this high, a trough of low pressure extended from northern British Columbia southwest to a point approximately 700 miles west of northern California. East of the high, a low amplitude trough was located from the eastern Great Lakes, southwest into the lower Ohio Valley. High pressure was east of this trough, located north of the Bahamas. Visible satellite imagery this morning has the center of TS Marco approximately 100 miles southeast of New Orleans. Across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, skies were clear east of highway 83. West of this route, skies were partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 85 at Gordon, to 99 at Valentine. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The main forecast challenges over the next 36 hours are temperatures and the tiny threat for thunderstorms tonight and again on Tuesday night. For tonight: The short range model solutions diverge quite a bit with respect to convective development later today/tonight. A stationary boundary will remain anchored from the northwestern Nebraska into southern South Dakota. Convection will attempt to initiate INVOF this boundary later this afternoon, then drift to the east and southeast into northern portions of the forecast area. There is no agreement between the short range models on this coming to fruition. The NAM12 and NAMNest solns this morning are dry for this afternoon/evening, while the GFS and 12z HRRR develop some convection in the northwestern forecast area around 21z this afternoon. It quickly dissipates by early evening as it tracks southeast into the ridge. One note about the HRRR over the past couple of days: It hinted at convection firing early on, then backed off as the late morning and early afternoon runs came in. That being said, will hedge toward a dry forecast for this evening. If any storms do develop, the severe threat appears fairly minimal given the 15 to 25 KT deep layer shear forecast. The stationary front will drift north further into South Dakota on Tuesday. By late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms will develop over the Black Hills and try to drift to the southeast into the forecast area. They will have a hard time making it into the NW forecast area as they approach the H5 ridge. For now, decided to leave this period dry. As for temperatures, with the front being farther north Tuesday, temperatures to the south of the front will reach the century mark. Decided to trend the forecast in northern Nebraska toward 2 meter temps as they tend to do well just to the south of a frontal boundary. This will lead to highs around 100 degrees tomorrow over portions of north central and NW Nebraska. Even with the century mark temps, slightly drier air will push into the area tomorrow, resulting in apparent T`s which are just below 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. That being said, will forgo heat headlines for Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The before mentioned frontal boundary will sag south into the central forecast area Wednesday morning. There will be a limited threat for thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening along and north of the frontal boundary. Immediately south of the boundary, temperatures will surge into the upper 90s to near 100. In fact, given the latest 21z Wednesday-NAM12 and GFS forecast frontal position, locations along a line from Ogallala to Broken Bow will have the potential to reach 100 degrees as they will be located just south of the front. NBM seems to have this handled decent right now as it has highs in the upper 90s. On Thursday, the front lift north into South Dakota. Highs will reach into the mid to upper 90s with mainly dry conditions expected. Precipitation chances will then increase Thursday night into Friday as the front tracks south into the forecast area. Aided by a strong northern stream trough aloft, the front will push into northern Kansas on Friday. With the frontal passage on Friday, highs will reach into the mid to upper 80s. There will also be an increased threat for thunderstorms. A warm front will push through the area Saturday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday. After highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Sunday, highs will reach the 70s for Monday. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday night associated with each front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Widespread VFR is expected across wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Tuesday. An upper level disturbance across ncntl Nebraska this evening will move east. Sprinkles are possible for a few hours this evening. Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will remain stationary across the Four Corners region of the western U.S.. Dry and stable weather should continue across wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ005>010-094. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
635 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 418 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge over the southern/central Rockies into the western Plains and a trough from Hudson Bay into northern Ontario resulting in wnw flow through the northern Great Lakes. A shortwave trough and sfc low south of James Bay was dragging a cold front through Lake Superior and central Upper Michigan. Mid/high clouds associated with the remnants of a MCS/MCV were sliding through eastern Upper Michigan. Although drier air with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 50s had spread through northeast MN, dewpoints behind the front in western Upper Michigan remained in the mid 60s. So far, capping has remained strong enough to prevent shra/tsra from developing over Upper Michigan even though MLCAPE values have climbed to 1000-1500 J/Kg. Thunderstorms have remained well to the north near the sfc low/shrtwv and over western WI. Rest of this afternoon into tonight, the CAMS still suggest that shra/tsra may develop over central Upper Michigan near the front, especially downstream of the Lake Superior breeze boundary. So, at least isold shra/tsra remain in the forecast into this evening. The convection will diminish later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Additional tsra that strengthen over WI associated with increasing 850 theta-e advection and the 850-700 front may brush the far south near KMNM by late this evening. Clearing from the north late evening/overnight behind the front could again lead to patchy fog later on tonight as temps drop below the crossover dew point temps. Lows should bottom out in the 50s away from the lakeshores, but remain closer to 60F near the Great Lakes. Tuesday, expect dry conditions with plenty of sunshine. Mixing through 850 mb temps around 15C inland will support max readings into the lower 80s south while ene flow over the north keeps readings in the 70s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 342 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2020 Outside of a few breaks in the precip chances throughout the long-term forecast period, it remains unsettled. Similar to the ongoing pattern, it won`t be a situation of continuous rain/storm chances, but rather periodic and episodic in nature. That said, there are a few time frames of interest that should be monitored as they inch closer. The first round looks to occur late tomorrow night into Wednesday. There are some spatial and temporal differences that create just enough uncertainty in the forecast, but have attempted to account for these scenarios in the issued forecast; highlighted change includes a bit of a slower progression of main area of precip. Essentially, it`s a combination of a WAA regime colliding with a mid- to upper-level perturbation riding along the U.S./Canadian border, yielding non-diurnally driven convection to potentially impact a good portion of the U.P. at some point Wednesday. Strong storms containing gusty winds and moderate to potentially locally heavy rain can`t be ruled out, thanks to decent shear advecting in, along with ample PWATs. As advertised, a smattering of precip chances remains until the next focused time period: Friday into Friday night (CMC depicts a slower progression, which would keep convection in the forecast area through early Saturday). Low crossing Manitoba into Ontario with a frontal boundary being drug along with it will trigger storm chances, with convection possible well ahead of this line as yet another perturbation rides out ahead of the main trough axis. However, confidence remains low on the finer details as this system interacts with the northward march of TC Laura. Stay tuned. A break in precip chances should occur later in the weekend, looking to leave Sunday dry until the approach of the next disturbance early next week. Temperatures are anticipated to remain near seasonable for late August, with a slight cooldown behind the aforementioned fropa this weekend. Otherwise, 70s dominate through much of the forecast period, with some 80s still popping up this week, and perhaps only some 60s this weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 635 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2020 Looks like enough drier air will occur in the low levels to maintain VFR conditions through the period at all sites. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 418 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2020 Winds across Lake Superior will remain mostly under 20kt through late this week. However, with high pressure building into the area and funneling of the northeast flow over the west, winds to around 20 knots are expected over the west end Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB