Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/10/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 436 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
An MCV over the CWA is progressing northeast, bringing showers and
thunderstorms across northeastern Minnesota and northwestern
Wisconsin. This system will continue to move east and we will get a
break from storms before a cold front presently in over far
northwestern Minnesota moves through tonight into tomorrow morning.
Main threats this evening and tonight will be over 1 inch hail, 60+
mph winds, and isolated tornados.
A drop in instability over the Arrowhead will limit how much severe
weather will take place in that area tonight. The 18Z HRRR run shows
the line of storms weakening over northern Minnesota before
redeveloping over northwest Wisconsin. This is most likely due to
northwest Wisconsin having MLCAPE values remaining in the 1500-3000
J/kg range overnight, according to RAP13. Effective bulk shear is
also more favorable over northwestern Wisconsin at 30-40 kts versus
around 20 kts in the Arrowhead.
Monday, the cold front should exit eastern Wisconsin by mid morning.
A high pressure associated with the back end of an upper level
trough will approach from the Central Plains and keep us dry,
cooler, and pleasant for Monday into Tuesday, with highs in the mid
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Zonal flow is likely to inhibit precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday
with gusty winds possible Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are
expected to remain warm, with highs in the low 80s for most
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. A shortwave moves into the
Northland Wednesday night, leading to possible showers and
thunderstorms.
A messy pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely to
set up for the latter half of next week into the weekend. Strong
moisture advection of roughly 1.5-1.8 inches of PWAT from the south,
along with a series of shortwave troughs will lead to a chance of
showers and thunderstorms remaining in the forecast Thursday-
Saturday afternoon. A cold front sweeps across the CWA Saturday
evening into overnight, with rain expected to end following the
passage of the front. Sunday is likely to be dry, with cooler
temperatures in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
A couple different features were affecting the Northland this
evening causing showers and storms. The first was an MCV over
northern Wisconsin which should depart over the next 2 to 3 hours.
The main threats with these storms is heavy rain and lightning. A
cold front was moving through the far eastern Dakotas and western
Minnesota and it was also causing showers/storms ahead of it. This
front will continue east tonight clearing northeast Minnesota
after 06Z and around or after 12Z for northwest Wisconsin. There
will be a threat for a severe storm ahead of the front but the
threat looks isolated with damaging wind, hail, heavy rain, and
lightning all possible. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible with
the showers/storms and some patchy fog and stratus will also be
possible until the front passes. Monday will feature VFR
conditions with gusty westerly winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 436 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight over Lake
Superior. Some of these storms could produce hail, high winds, and
lightning. Monday through Tuesday, winds will be 10-15 kts along
the near shores and waves possible up to 3 ft in the Arrowhead.
Tuesday, winds should increase to near 15 knots and gusts above 20
kts along the north shore. This could cause waves to be over 4
ft, especially from Silver Bay to Grand Portage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 77 55 83 / 40 0 0 0
INL 51 77 55 81 / 70 0 0 0
BRD 57 77 54 84 / 50 0 0 0
HYR 62 78 53 83 / 40 0 0 0
ASX 63 80 56 86 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kossen/Melde
LONG TERM...WFU/Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Kossen/Melde
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
638 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
00Z AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE
.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Area radars show the last of this afternoon`s round of convection
exiting Stephenson County in northwest Illinois. Satellite imagery
shows a sharp transition to clear skies over eastern Iowa, in an
area of subsidence, drier air aloft, and capping behind the
shortwave responsible for the departing thunderstorms over far
northern IL and southeast WI.
Absent an obvious upstream shortwave or MCV in the near term, the
potential for additional storms this evening and even overnight,
is looking increasingly remote. Most convective allowing models
are latching onto this reality as well, with a dry forecast for
overnight, then possible wave of showers and storms around
sunrise.
Have thus lowered pops this evening in an initial update and may
be able to remove chances altogether through the rest of the
night in later updates.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Clouds from morning storms and low-level WAA were dominant across
much of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri
early this afternoon, which was helping put a damper on the warm air
mass building across the area. While temperatures were mainly in the
low to mid 80s, light winds were helping pool the increasing surface
moisture, with widespread dewpoints as of 2 PM in the mid to upper
70s. So despite the lack of sunshine, heat indices were still
noticeable in the low to mid 90s. Where sun did peak out though, it
felt closer to 100!
The other story has been showers and storms, which have been
scattered in nature and forced by leftover outflow boundaries and
cold pools from morning storms. Dry conditions prevailed elsewhere,
as guidance, our 12z sounding, water vapor imagery and SPC
mesoanalysis continued to hint at a persistent lid of warm and drier
air aloft, capping any potential storm development. This sort of
scenario is what will play out for much of the short term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Key Messages:
1) Low confidence forecast with showers and storms possible through
the entire period.
2) Storms that tap into the high instability may become
strong/severe.
As is the case with the previous few days, the forecast confidence
of the short term is low as there is much that could influence where
storms form or if they even develop at all. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, we have a lot of instability as steep mid level
lapse rates around 7-8 C/km are promoting MUCAPE values around 3000-
4000 J/kg. There problem goes back to the warm/dry air around 700
hPa, as it continues to act as a lid and inhibit any widespread
storm development.
This means forcing for any storm is going to be by remnant cold
pools leading to enhanced surface convergence, outflow boundaries or
where pooling dewpoints increase surface instability and promote
development. Convective allowing models and most deterministic
global models, unfortunately, do not handle these situations
extremely well, which leads to a diverse set of solutions and a lot
of uncertainty.
With this forecast, continue to advertise slight chance to mainly
chance POPs across the area during times at which storms appear to
be most favorable. The first comes this afternoon and evening as
outflow boundaries and an MCV from morning storms in central Iowa
increase low-level convergence. Coverage will remain fairly
scattered according to the latest CAMS, but any storm that develops
could become strong if it becomes surface based as it taps in the
robust instability. The primary threats would be damaging wind gusts
and torrential rainfall. There is a lower risk for large hail, but
that will be dependent on how robust updrafts can get as there isn`t
a great deal of shear to work with. SPC continues to advertise a
marginal risk of thunderstorms across the area.
The next chance will come later tonight as there is a potential for
a developing MCS in Minnesota and western Wisconsin to move south
into the area. The NAMnest, NSSL-WRF and ECWMF are most bullish on
this solution as they show the complex riding the MLCAPE gradient
south across the area. Meanwhile, the NAM, GFS, CMC and HRRR show
mainly dry conditions to only an isolated storm over our area with
the complex staying to the north. If storms were to develop, heavy
rain and wind gusts would accompany them.
For Monday, a cold front will approach the area from the north, and
looks to be the focus for the next round of thunderstorms. Much of
this will depend on how the morning evolves. If we end up remaining
dry, storms should have less trouble initially firing along the
front across our north during the afternoon. If we do have morning
activity, then storms would likely form more south of the I-80
corridor once there has been enough time for the atmosphere to
recover. SPC maintains a marginal risk for all of eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri for the afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall the primary
threats.
Temperatures for Monday will be dependent on how much cloud cover is
present and storm coverage. However, the air mass overhead still
supports afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90, especially
along and east of the Mississippi. Heat indices will climb back into
the mid to upper 90s, to near 100 in spots.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Monday Night
A few strong or severe storms are possible mainly south of I-80
with damaging winds the primary threat if any bowing segments
were to develop. Confidence is low on the details regarding
coverage and exact timing. But with moderate to high instability
residing along and south of a weak cold front, the potential is
there for an organized storm cluster or two, with the most likely
timing between 4 PM - 10 PM.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Great Lakes high pressure, with extension over eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois, will bring less humid conditions for Tuesday
and Wednesday, along with seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.
An isolated shower or storm is possible during peaking diurnal
heating, but most of the CWA will stay dry through at least the
middle of the week.
Thursday On
Blocking upper-level flow will develop late in the week as a ridge
expands over the Great Lakes and across eastern Ontario. A remnant
convectively induced vorticity max, guided by zonal mid-level flow,
will become cut-off over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley as its
eastward progression is halted by the aforementioned ridge. This
feature could result in low coverage showers and storms. However,
latest model guidance has backed off on QPF potential. For now have
low chances Thursday into the weekend, generally 20-30%. Overall
there are no strong signals for widespread or heavy rain late this
week into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, typical mid August
weather is anticipated with highs in the mid/upper 80s and humid
conditions (mid 60s to low 70s dewpoints). Uttech
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
VFR conditions will continue this evening, then there will be an
increasing potential for at least light fog and low clouds due to
moisture convergence ahead of a weak front. MVFR conditions are
thus brought in around 09Z at CID, DBQ and MLI, with DBQ most
likely to see a period of IFR due to ceilings below 1000 ft agl
Monday morning. All sites should see an improvement to VFR by mid
morning with light winds veering to more westerly. There will be
increasing chances for thunderstorms during the day as a cold
front approaches and these are mentioned in prob30 groups at CID,
DBQ and MLI.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sheets
SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Sheets
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
648 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.Discussion...
Issued at 157 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
Primary forecast focus is on current showers and thunder and a
second round on Monday.
A challenging forecast scenario through the the morning and present.
An early morning MCS across southeastern South Dakota and
northeastern Nebraska laid down a persistent outflow that raced
southward down the Missouri River valley. This feature combined with
a weak 500mb short wave trough and considerable isentropic ascent,
sparked widespread showers and thunder across the area through
sunrise into the afternoon. The boundary reached the Ozark plateau
through noon as it slowed, becoming an east west oriented boundary.
Along and north of this focusing mechanism, showers and
thunderstorms continue to persist and slowly work their way
eastward with the track of the upper wave. No surprise, guidance
has handled this situation with less than stellar accuracy. The
only standout was the HRRR and HRRRx, the latter of which caught
on early and has maintained a usability into the afternoon.
Expectations are for the current (1:30 PM) activity to continue to
slowly build east, with rain ending through the late afternoon,
west to east. Estimate a 5 to 7 PM end time for central Missouri,
as an remaining activity shifts to the east.
It`s suffice to say, the heat advisory in effect will likely not pan
out for a decent part of the area due to the ongoing rain and cloud
cover. However, locations in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas
have cleared out and temperatures have started to increase. Given
dew points in the lower 70s F, it won`t take much, temperatures in
the lower 90s F, to get heat index values around 100 F, maybe higher.
Overnight, early solutions suggested some rain chances, but it`s
looking dry across the region, at least through sunrise. A weak
short wave trough riding the general flow of the base of the larger
trough centered over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies
across SD/NE, may result in some residual precipitation across
northwest Missouri/northeastern Kansas. Into the afternoon an
elongated frontal boundary will sink southward into the afternoon. A
sizable EML spread across the warm sector will inhibit convective
initiation well into the late afternoon/early evening.
Considerable warm air advection into eastern kansas and western
Missouri will result in an extremely unstable airmass. Not to
rehash the SPC Day Two outlook, but modest deep layer shear will
be a limiting factor. However, steep lapse rates will promote
strong downdrafts and as scattered convection fires in proximity
to the boundary, the strongest storms will pose a wind gust
threat. Overnight into early Tuesday, as the low level jet
increases after sunset, a few complexes may develop moving south
and southeast across the Ozarks through daybreak. The severe
concerns will drop off through the early Tuesday morning.
The remainder of the week will be marked with continual shower and
thunderstorm chances, especially Thursday into Friday as another
short wave trough moves through the region. Temperatures will top
out in the upper 80s and low 90s each afternoon.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
Currently VFR at all terminals with showers and thunderstorms
remaining well south of the terminals this late afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the period. LLWS will
be a concern again overnight tonight through sunrise Monday.
Attention then turns to the threat for showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon/evening as a cold front will approach the region
from the northwest. For now have introduced VCTS beginning at 21z
Monday (20z at STJ). There will be the potential for strong to
severe storms given very large instability, so strong thunderstorm
wind gusts and perhaps even some large hail could briefly impact
the terminals. The front appears likely to slow down or even stall
Monday afternoon across NW Missouri, so confidence in the precise
time of the wind shift is low at the current moment. For now have
introduced a wind shift to northerly behind the front at STJ by
20z and all other terminals by 23z Monday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001-002-011>013-
020-021-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.
&&
$$
Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...BMW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
724 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
A round or two of thunderstorms tonight into Monday, then turning
much less humid but with above normal temperatures continuing
throughout the upcoming work week.
The large scale pattern across North America won`t change much
during the next 7 days. The subtropical ridge will remain
stretched out across the central and southern CONUS, with a
seasonably strong band of westerlies to the north across Canada
and the far northern CONUS. Within the westerlies, a ridge
position was off the West Coast, with a trough position over the
Intermountain West. Those features will remain in place for a few
days, then the pattern will become slowly progressive.
The humidity will drop significantly early in the period, then
slowly creep back upward thereafter. High temperatures should
remain slightly to modestly above normal throughout the period.
The dry air may allow low temperatures to drop AOB normal for a
few days during the early to middle part of the period, otherwise
mins will probably be at least slightly above normal. The pattern
will probably result in AOA normal precipitation, most of which
will fall early in the period. A several day long stretch of dry
weather is likely during the upcoming work week, then rain chances
will gradually begin to increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
A quiet early afternoon ongoing across the area, as the area is
situated in the warm sector, with a mix of low, mid and upper
level clouds spreading across the state. It was warm and humid,
with temps climbing into the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, producing heat index readings in the middle 80s
and lower 90s. As expected, a very messy upstream pattern with
multi areas of storms ongoing through the late morning and early
afternoon. Forecast challenge will be trying to pin down
where/when the best chances for showers/storms will occur and
the prospects for severe weather.
For tonight...CAMs continue to struggle with the complicated set
up. Currently there are clusters of storms across northeast
IA/southern WI, eastern MN, northwest WI and eastern SD and far
northwest MN. Each one of these will either bring a chance of
storm activity to the area or impact the chances of that
happening. First, the storms across far northeast IA and southwest
WI continue to hold its own, despite the lack of bulk shear,
moving east/eastnortheast. This will continue to track toward
mainly east central WI, but the models that do show this feature
have it weakening. Second, the well defined MCV that has been
tracking across central MN. This feature has been behaving so far,
fighting some subsidence and weak capping, but it is moving into
a more favorable environment, so will likely see an uptick in
activity in the late afternoon/evening as it approaches. This
will track into the Northwoods, bringing the best chance for
widespread activity through the early evening hours. If the
system becomes more mature, activity along the southern edge
could expand, impacting more of the area, but it will be fighting
the cap. Finally, the convection across eastern SD and far
northwest MN associated with the actual cold front and shortwave.
This has the most organized severe weather threat with the best
dynamics with several ongoing warnings. This activity will
continue to drop southeast through the night, but again, models
differ on how long it will last as it enters a more stable/worked
over airmass across northeast MN where there is ongoing
convection. The boundary/outflow from this feature could help kick
off additional storms later tonight, as it reaches northwest WI
where more instability should be present. Model soundings still
showing a cap in place across the area, so expect any activity
outside the more organized areas will struggle to develop/sustain
itself. Latest runs of the HRRR is one of the better performing
models, so will lean on its guidance, but keep chance POPs going
for most locations for much of the night as confidence remains on
the low side on how everything will play out tonight.
Looking at the severe weather threat, SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg
were found across the area this afternoon, despite the cloud
cover for much of the day. Low-mid level lapse rates continues to
steepen to between 7-9C/km. Bulk shear the greatest (25-35 kts)
across north central WI, with values falling to around 15 kts
across east central WI. So atmosphere conducive for severe
weather, if we can get any area of organized convection. Damaging
winds looks to be the main threat, with hail possible as well. The
other hazard will be heavy rain and flooding as PWATs remain
between 1.5-2.0". It will be another warm and muggy night across
the area, with lows dropping into the middle 60s north to the
lower 70s in the Fox Valley and lake shore and dewpoints remaining
in the upper 60s to around 70.
For Monday...surface cold front and shortwave sweep across the
area, bringing additional chances for showers/storms. Models again
not in the best agreement due to not handling the overnight
activity very well. There could be some left over activity across
a portion of the area to start the day, then focus will be along
the front as it passes through the area, reaching the Fox Valley
and lake shore in the late morning or early afternoon. If the
front slows at all, chances for a stronger round of storms
increase, along with possibly a severe storm. Models that do not
show much activity tonight favor a higher end event on Monday
(HRRR showing 3500+ CAPE and 30 kts of bulk shear for the front to
work with). So this will need to be watched. Locally heavy rain
and flooding will be possible with PWATs of nearly 2" pooling
ahead of the front. Warm and humid conditions will continue in the
morning, then the drier air will filter in behind the front, but
won`t reach the Fox Valley and lake shore until evening.
.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Quiet, dry weather is likely for at least a few days at the start
of the long-term portion of the forecast as a weak anticyclone
slowly shifts across the region. Westerly flow aloft will limit
the cooling associated with the high, but the drop in humidity
will be much more noticeably.
Overall, saw no reason to deviate significantly from the standard
forecast initialization grids generated from a broad-based blend
of guidance products.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 723 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
More widespread thunderstorm activity that was anticipated this
evening, thus far not panning out due to more clouds than
expected across parts of the area today and elevated warm layer
that has generally capped the environment. Through at least mid
night or so, appears best chance for any scattered thunderstorm
activity will be confined across the far northern Wisconsin in
vicinity of convectively induced circulation. A few of these
storms storms may contain gusts to 40 kts and brief MVFR cigs and
vsbys. Appears the brunt of this activity will remain NNW of RHI
TAF site through late evening.
Later tonight, primary frontal boundary over NW Minnesota will
continue to push southeast into far northwest Wisconsin after
midnight. Latest short-term guidance still suggests that some
scattered thunderstorm activity may initiate along this front and
perhap impact AUW/CWA and RHI sometime in the 09 to 12 UTC time
frame. However, given poor performance of the guidance lately and
elevated warm layer aloft, confidence is low on location and
timing. Elsewhere overnight, copius moisture may lead to low cloud
formation and fog across parts of central and northcentral
Wisconsin as well. This may bring some areas of IFR cigs and vsbys
across this area.
Frontal boundary will push east across the entire forecast area
during the day on Monday and may kick off a few more showers and
thunderstorms prior to 21 UTC especially across the Fox Valley.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......ESB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1143 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
- Fading Storms into Early Monday, More Possible Monday Night
- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
This pattern is notoriously difficult for pinning down who`s likely
to get rain and who isn`t. Rich, low level moisture with modest
instability but lack of deep layer forcing leads to question marks
about storm chances through early Tuesday. The high resolution CAMs
failed to signify a heavy rain threat earlier this morning from
Sheboygan, WI across the lake through Pentwater and eastern Oceana
County. The prior 00z run of the HREF`s 24-hour probability matched
mean rainfall had less than 0.10" for this area but in reality there
was a swath of 1"-2" across Mason/Oceana Counties and an even
heavier swath of 3"-6" near Sheboygan. The HREF did indicate PWAT
values of around 1.8" in this area as slow moving storms developed
but the five members of the HREF didn`t catch the magnitude of
rainfall as of their 00z initializations.
Fast forward to tonight and Monday, and similar challenges exist in
forecasting thunderstorm chances. While a 30 knot LLJ will be moving
into Missouri and Illinois by 06z tonight, it will be buckling SE
and we`ll miss out on the best low level moisture convergence. The
500 mb winds never get above 20-30 knots and deep layer shear will
be 20 knots or lower, so storm organization will be impacted and
propagation may quickly become outflow dominated if any manage to
cross the lake overnight. Storms will likely fade around sunrise but
some heavy downpours and residual gusty winds are possible mainly
near and west of US 131 very late tonight into Monday morning.
I could envision the remnant outflow boundary potentially kicking
off a shower or storm primarily east of US 131 during the day
Monday but the coverage is questionable. Still, localized
downpours would be possible. The better chance for thunderstorms
exists Monday evening into Monday night as better forcing is
present, with the right entrance region of the upper level jet
moving in and sfc based CAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range. We are
not expecting severe weather at this time. The main threat would
be locally heavy downpours with some ponding of water on roads.
Finally, there is a possibility that a few locations mainly near and
west of US 131 could pick up a few inches of rain through Monday
night (eg. the 06z/12z HRRR runs show this), but feel the
geographic scope is likely to be too localized to cause widespread
impacts. Rain rates in the heavier storms could exceed 1"/hour,
but coverage would be limited enough to preclude a threat to most
rivers and streams, and most locations would not get substantial
rain.
-- Quieter Weather Until Next Weekend --
Most medium range guidance suggests the second half of Tuesday
into Friday should be dry for most areas (aside from an isolated
shower or storm here or there). Dew points are forecast to drop
into the 50s and 60s until rebounding back toward 70 for the
weekend. We may see a scattering of showers and storms by that
time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Primarily VFR conditions are forecast overnight and Monday.
However brief reductions to MVFR/IFR are possible overnight and
on Monday due to scattered showers and storms.
The relatively best chance for some thunderstorms at all the
terminals will come mid to late Monday afternoon through late
Monday evening along and just out ahead of the cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Waves will build into the 2 to 4 foot range later tonight and into
Monday out ahead of a front moving in late Monday night. Winds
will be from the S/SW. Behind the front, winds will turn more
northwesterly but generally 1 to 3 footers are expected Tuesday.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hoving
DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...Hoving
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
804 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Periods of thunderstorms are expected through Monday night across
central and southeast Illinois, with potential for producing an
inch or two of rainfall. Some of the storms may be strong to
locally severe, with damaging winds the main concern. In between
the storms on Monday, heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are
likely near and west of I-55.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Evening convection did not really materialize over central
Illinois except for an isolated storm just south of the forecast
area. Backed off on PoPs this evening but will continue to
monitor, especially an area of accus south of I-72 and west of
I-57 which appears to be the most likely area if anything were to
happen this evening. Otherwise best chances will be after midnight
when low level jet increases across the region with scattered
thunderstorms still expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Earlier MCV that brought the rain to the southeast CWA stands out
nicely on visible satellite imagery this afternoon, centered just
west of Evansville and moving east. Convection over central and
southern Missouri has shown some weakening as of late, though the
HRRR suggests some development along an associated surface
boundary in west central Illinois later this afternoon. Will
include some 20% PoP`s west of highway 51 for late afternoon and
early evening with this feature.
Main focus for thunderstorm activity is expected near and after
midnight, as an MCS develops over the region. Some variations
noted on the convective allowing models as to where this takes
place, with the 4 km NAM suggesting an initiation associated with
convection currently in southwest Wisconsin/northeast Iowa, while
the 12Z HRRR and ARW place it closer to our area. Will go with
likely PoP`s late tonight and early Monday across the heart of the
forecast area, along a northwest/southeast axis. Secondary round
with the front itself has better agreement with an arrival
northwest of the Illinois River very late Monday afternoon, and
pushing across the forecast area during the evening. Between these
two periods, potential exists for 1-2 inches of rain exists across
most of the forecast area.
A secondary concern involves the heat on Monday. Assuming a period
of sunshine across the western CWA behind the MCS, highs should
reach the lower 90s with heat index potentially around 105 degrees
from about Havana and Springfield west. However, with the
uncertainty regarding the cloud cover, will hold off for now on
any heat advisories.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
As the upper wave passes by to our north Monday night, we get into
more of a zonal flow, which will allow the early week front to
become more stationary to our south on Tuesday. Highest PoP`s will
be near and south of I-70, while high pressure over the Great
Lakes tries to get some drier air in here for a time.
As we get later in the week, focus shifts more toward diurnal
convection as periodic upper waves pass through the region.
General shift for the Friday/Saturday system has been away from
the closed upper low over our region, though the Canadian model
still lingers this for a time. Thus, an extended period of rain is
appearing less likely at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Multiple thunderstorm chances are the primary aviation forecast
concern tonight through Monday, though confidence in any
specifics remains low at this time. Early this evening, several
models indicated the possibility of scattered thunderstorms
currently over northern Illinois extending southward into central
Illinois, however, satellite imagery does not show any convection
imminent in this area so dry conditions currently appear favored
this evening. Overnight, increasing low level jet will result in
LLWS and scattered thunderstorm development. Storm chances will
diminish after daybreak Monday. An approaching cold front should
bring yet another round of showers and storms to the terminals,
but at this time appear most favored just beyond the current TAF
period. Outside the influence of storms SSE/SSW winds are expected
to prevail through the period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1118 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
The previous update did not pan out, as incoming convection
dissipated just before it entered the forecast area. A few light
showers may still move through portions of Wayne county tonight,
but it appears that any other areas of rain will dissipate as
they approach the area and should not make it in. The next round
of rain we should see will be later tonight. The other elements of
the forecast were freshened up using the latest hourly obs. The
weather and PoP grids were adjusted based on current radar trends.
UPDATE Issued at 918 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
Updated the forecast grids to account for an area of showers and
isolated storms that is currently moving into the southwestern
counties of our forecast area. The activity is slowly dissipating,
but it looks like it will hold together long enough to affect some
of southwestern counties. Will continue monitor the ongoing
convection and may need to update again toward the end of the
shift depending how well the showers and storms are still doing by
then.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 405 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
19z sfc analysis shows high pressure still holding on over far
eastern parts of the state. This has provided a mostly sunny day
as even the high clouds from convection to the west are just now
encroaching our southwest counties. The sunshine helped
temperatures peak a couple of degrees higher than yesterday in
the upper 80s for most places. Meanwhile, amid light winds, the
dewpoints did manage to drop a tad from morning and are now in the
low and mid 60s.
The models remain challenged aloft through the short term portion
of the forecast. While they all do show a key impulse moving into
central Kentucky this evening and weakening overnight over eastern
Kentucky, the magnitude and placement of this features is a
little off in each. Some weakness in the mid level heights
continue into the day Monday and that night as the southern ridge
further retreats to the southwest. During this time additional
weak energy packets will pass through the area maintaining an
active pattern. Given the uncertainty have favored the blended NBM
model as the starting point for the grids with a strong lean on
the CAMs consensus for PoP and QPF specifics tonight into Monday
morning.
Sensible weather will feature a mild night with increasing clouds
expected as a more active weather pattern takes shape. The
remnants of an MCS or two could spread into the western parts of
the Cumberland Valley late tonight, per many of the CAMs - moreso
the NAMNest than the HRRR - with the threat continuing into the
day Monday. While these clouds should limit the fog development to
a certain extent overnight, the northeast may be cloud free long
enough for some river valley fog similar to this morning.
Likewise, expect a bit more of a ridge to valley temperature split
over the northeast compared to the rest of the CWA into Monday
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to
be around during the day Monday with some diminishment expected
after dark and with the loss of daytime heating. However, leftover
boundaries and favorable upper level support will mean a small
threat for convection continuing that night and into Tuesday
morning.
Adjusted the NBM high temperatures down a notch on Monday with the
expectation of more cloudiness and some storms around. Did also
tweak the northeast ridge and valley temperatures tonight. As for
PoPs, mainly adjusted the late day PoPs on Monday more toward a
diurnal pattern and in conjunction with the upper support.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
The upper level height rises will have some weaknesses, as the
Ohio Valley remains in the periphery of this upper level ridging
centered across the Southwest US. These weaknesses will come in
the form of weaker upper level perturbations and will lead to
increased chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. However, given the ample
instability and moisture we could see some of this come in the
form of MCS activity, but uncertainty remains given this is more
mesoscale driven process.
After this the synoptic pattern become more zonal aloft leaving
us vulnerable to more weak shortwaves. However, it looks like the
overall pattern would lead to most diurnally driven convection by
the end of this week into next weekend. The active pattern could
lead to some strong storms and even some flooding potential as we
move through the week, but still plenty of uncertainty on where
any issues would arise given this will depend on mesoscale
features. In terms of temperatures, we will average above normal
through the period, but there is bust potential given the
possibility of afternoon convection.
The overall synoptic pattern for the long term period seems to be
largely agreed upon by the various model suites. Given this was
able to keep the NBM going for much of the forecast. That said,
did keep the likely PoPs presented Tuesday into Wednesday mainly
in the afternoon, but lowered to chance for most in the later part
of the extended given some uncertainty on features this far out.
Outside this only minor changes were needed to handle the
ridge/valley temperature differences usually seen in both highs
and lows compared the NBM more uniform output.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight for most of the
area, before some valley fog threatens once again. This should be
less extensive compared to the previous few nights, as some
clouds will be on the increase from the west late in the period. A
new forecast issue has arisen since the previous TAF was issued.
A small complex of showers and storms has formed in central KY,
and is heading toward the southwestern portion of our forecast
area. If these showers and storms hold together, SME and LOZ could
see some impacts from them. Due to uncertainty in the potential
for the storms to hold together, have only went with VCTS at SME
and LOZ for now to handle any storms that may affect those two
airports. Will monitor this situation closely and will amend the
LOZ and SME TAFs as necessary through 3Z this evening. After that,
some small chances for showers and thunderstorms will return
again to the Cumberland Valley on Monday morning, but the TAF
sites there should remain clear keeping conditions as VFR once any
fog clears. Winds will average less than 5 kts through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Near term concerns revolve around a few rounds of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms later today and again early Monday morning
across portions of western and central Nebraska. Surface boundary
currently draped across the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska will
be the focus of a possible round of thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening as weak energy moves off the Front Range and
east onto the High Plains. Southeast of this boundary, a humid
airmass remains in place with mid 60 to mid 70 dew points and high
temperatures once again in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s.
Northwest of this boundary, drier air in place with a slight
downslope component to the winds has helped temperatures spike into
the 90s with a few locations seeing upper 90s but heat indices
remain in check. Much like Saturday, the environment is supportive
of strong to severe thunderstorms...steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-
9 C/km...MLCAPE values climbing above 2500 j/kg...0-6km BWD values
of 30 knots. The question will be if a storm as able to break the
cap. The morning RAOB advertises h85 and h7 temperatures of 25 and
15 degrees C respectively and though low-level moisture quality has
increased, so has mid-level temperatures according to RAP analysis.
Forcing is much weaker today as well with lack of an appreciable
shortwave, only modest height falls, and weaker low-level
convergence. The LLJ is also forecast to be weaker this evening than
last night. All these combined suggest coverage likely to be
isolated in nature. As such, have limited PoPs to Slight Chance
across the area. Should a storm develop, large hail and damaging
wind gusts will again be the main concerns. Though recent
performance hasn`t been exemplary, hi-res guidance suggests isolated
storms that don`t maintain themselves much longer than an hour or
two, further backing this idea that many locations likely remain dry
tonight. Should storms develop, expect activity associated with this
round to exit the area to the east shortly after Midnight.
The second potential round for thunderstorms will occur late tonight
into early Monday morning. This will likely be attributed to
stronger mid-level frontogenesis as high pressure diving south in
the area. This forcing for ascent will be aided by some elevated
instability, helping drive some isolated to potentially scattered
thunderstorms mainly for areas north of Highway 2. Recent trends of
hi-res guidance have shifted this threat north, mainly across far
southern South Dakota as opposed to north central Nebraska. This
trend will need to be monitored for further adjustments to the PoPs
for Monday morning. Do believe we will see some activity move into
north central Nebraska as the fgen bands, mainly focused in the h85-
h7 layer, will progress north to south with time and are expected to
eventually work their way into Nebraska. Greatest potential will
again be across far north central Nebraska. Though organized severe
weather is not expected with this activity, a few stronger storms
capable of hail cannot be ruled out given some overlap of modest
shear and instability. Lows overnight will fall into the 50s to low
60s. Precipitation will gradually diminish through the morning,
leaving the bulk of the daytime dry for Monday. Temperatures will be
cooler as the surface boundary sags south into Kansas and Canadian
high pressure moves overhead. Expect values nearly 5-10 degrees
below normal for mid-August with daytime highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Lows Monday night will hover in
the upper 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
Beginning 12z Tuesday. High pressure departs by early Tuesday with
the area in general southerly flow behind the departing feature.
This will not only help to advect higher moisture into the area but
also allow temperatures to trend upwards over the rest of the week.
Near daily rain and thunderstorm chances will exist as multiple
disturbances move through the area. The strongest of these systems
looks to move through Tuesday and with some modest upper-level
support, may bring another round of strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms to the area. A lot of uncertainty with respect to this
so stay tuned. Highs return to the 90s for most if not all locations
by Wednesday and continue into the weekend before another frontal
boundary brings precipitation chances and a brief cooldown. Though
temperatures will be above normal for much of the upcoming week,
heat concerns look to be fairly low as humidity will be greatest to
the east of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
The latest NAMnest solution, fires off a round of thunderstorms,
generally east of a KBBW to KANW line after 00z this evening. This
activity will remain east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals and will
not be an impact. Some minimal high cloudiness may move into the
area overnight into Monday with cloud decks around 25000 FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Jurgensen
LONG TERM...Jurgensen
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
910 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.UPDATE...
905 PM CDT
A line of showers and thunderstorms continues across far
northeast IL after paralleling the WI/IL border earlier this
evening bringing much needed rain to those areas. A resultant
outflow boundary is helping to fuel further development to the
south of the current thunderstorm complex. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain possible the next few hours as this line
gradually drifts southeast along the lakeshore.
Plenty of subsidence exists to the northwest of the current area
of showers with clear skies across SW Wisconsin into much of
Iowa. An apparent boundary extends from NW Nebraska into SE
Minnesota late this evening with a couple thunderstorm clusters
having developed along it. Due to expected clearing and ample
surface moisture, have added a mention of patchy fog for our
northwestern zones late tonight into early tomorrow morning.
A considerable amount of uncertainty remains with regard to our
thunderstorm chances over the next 18-24 hours. Significant
variability between model runs has made pinpointing the expected
evolution of various thunderstorm complexes quite challenging. It
remains unclear as to whether any outflow/cold pool interactions
and resultant thunderstorm development could cause a line of
thunderstorms to move through the area late tonight into early
tomorrow morning. Several models have backed off on this
scenario, with an alternate scenario, such as some of the latest
HRRR runs, suggesting that more scattered convection develops at
the nose of the LLJ as a weak shortwave moves overhead. Regardless,
showers and thunderstorms remain possible overnight tonight into
early tomorrow morning.
Of slightly greater certainty is that thunderstorms will develop
ahead of and along a surface cold front as it pushes through the
area tomorrow afternoon and evening. The overall coverage and
severity of storms is what remains somewhat in question and will
depend on how well the atmosphere is able to recover behind any
morning convection.
Petr
&&
.SHORT TERM...
242 PM CDT
Through Monday night...
Convective trends continue to pose the primary challenge for the
near term and unfortunately forecast confidence is not high. The
activity presently moving into western portions of the forecast area
as of mid afternoon poses the first question. As anticipated, so
far most of these cells have struggled to achieve any sort of
sustained organization but a few clusters have managed to hang
together for an hour or so at a time. This is handled by a mention
of isolated to scattered thunderstorms gradually expanding eastward
through the remainder of the afternoon which seems to be a
reasonable approach given the lack of focused forcing and even some
lingering low level capping that may be in place.
Overnight toward the predawn hours, an increasing though not strong
low level jet will provide support for the next favorable period of
activity in the form of elevated convection. As the jet veers and
weakens toward morning the focus likely will shift south, but there
appears to be a broad enough warm and moist low level flow to
include at least a chance of TS areawide.
Later in the day and into the evening Monday the third favorable
period of activity takes shape ahead of a cold front approaching
from the northwest. FROPA itself appears likely in the late
afternoon toward the northwest and late evening in the southeast.
Even with this boundary providing a bit better focus for forcing, it
is not clear whether convection will develop in the prefrontal warm
sector or be tied closer to the boundary itself. Some locations may
also remain dry with the frontal passage but that appears a less
likely scenario. Either way, barring any disruption from earlier
activity, thunderstorm chances would increase later in the day and
toward early Monday evening as boundary layer heat and humidity
maximize and midlevel lapse rates steepen, then diminish overnight
in the cooler and drier postfrontal northwest flow. During peak
heating there is also a bit stronger flow aloft which may support
some stronger or more organized convection. Heavy rain is also a
concern with PWATs approaching two inches.
Temperature trends and heat indices would be the other concern for
Monday. Cloud cover may keep temperatures from getting quite as
warm as they otherwise might with summertime southwesterly flow
ahead of a front, but there should be plenty of moisture to support
heat indices over a hundred degrees in at least a few locations. As
with other similar events so far this summer, this should be just
below the criteria for a heat headline.
Lenning
&&
.LONG TERM...
303 PM CDT
Tuesday through Sunday...
High pressure builds back in midweek which should help to keep
the majority of the area dry. Have held onto some low precip
chances across our southern zones on Tuesday and Wednesday due to
some remaining uncertainties with regard to where the cold front
stalls out late Monday night. Depending on where the front ends
up, the entire area could very well remain dry both days.
The upper jet becomes more quasi-zonal with a couple subtle
disturbances moving beneath the flow into the weekend. Models
have trended drier through the extended thanks to surface high
pressure and lack of strong forcing. However, due to variability
the between model runs will hold on to occasional low precip
chances most days. Any shower/thunderstorm development would
probably be more diurnally driven.
High temperatures are expected in the 80s each day, with cooler
temps near the lake.
Petr
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation forecast concerns:
* Area of convection passing across northern Chicago suburbs early
this evening - potentially near KDPA and KORD.
* MVFR ceilings 2500-3000 ft likely for a time this evening, and
possibly again Monday morning.
* Additional potential periods of thunderstorms early Monday
morning, and again mid-late afternoon into early evening.
Cluster of thunderstorms continues to propagate eastward across
southeast WI and far northern IL early this evening, in
association with a remnant MCV/mid-level circulation. Atmosphere
is generally weakly capped per RAP soundings, with convection
expected to be focused in the vicinity of the MCV and any
attendant outflow boundaries from current storms. Outflow has
spread southeast into northern tier of IL counties, with
additional scattered convection likely to continue to push east
through the northern Chicago suburbs through about 9-10 pm. While
current trajectory favors storms to pass north of KDPA and KORD,
scattered development along the southern periphery could come
close or clip these terminals. In addition, and area of MVFR
ceilings in the 2500-3000 ft agl range have developed in the south
winds across parts of north central and northeast IL, and may
affect the terminals for a time this evening.
Confidence in convective trends decreases past this evening, with
various convective allowing models (CAMs) indicating an array of
possible solutions from later tonight through Monday. There does
seem to be general agreement in the development of additional
showers and thunderstorms across parts of central IL after
midnight tonight, in association with a mid-level short wave and a
modest southwesterly low level jet. While the bulk of this
activity would likely occur south of the terminals, several models
do indicate isolated to scattered development across northern IL,
while others depict significantly different development and
evolution from the northwest. Confidence in any particular of
these scenarios is rather low, and have maintained a prob30
mention for this potential for additional TS toward morning.
Guidance is in a little better agreement in depicting the
potential for additional MVFR ceiling development across the area
early Monday, which may persist into late morning or midday before
lifting to VFR.
A third potential period of thunderstorm potential exists Monday
afternoon and evening, though placement and extent will likely be
highly dependent upon what occurs earlier in the morning. If no
extensive convection develops early AM, the threat for a period of
strong storms would be higher in the afternoon. For now will
maintain a prob30 for this period as well, with confidence again
fairly low on details pending what happens early Monday.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
931 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the region through Monday as
high pressure builds aloft. The high pressure aloft will weaken over
the Carolinas by mid-week, allowing a new surface trough to develop
to focus showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 931 PM Sunday...
Convection is in the process of dissipating now with the sun having
set. A few cells lingering over our SW Piedmont zones will soon
dissipate, then look for the rest of the night to be partly cloudy
and warm with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The HRRR and NAM
forecast soundings suggest some patchy fog and perhaps some stratus
may form after 08Z tonight and linger through about 13Z before
lifting. Coverage should be quite scattered and most likely where
the heaviest rain fell today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...
The remnants of an MCS currently over southern IL, southern IN, and
western KY will reach NC tomorrow morning, which may enhance
convection over our region tomorrow afternoon and evening. This
combined with a forecast weakness in the upper ridge over the
Southeast US and an uptick in shower and storm coverage in the CAM
guidance mean POPs have been increased tomorrow to high chance (40-
50%) in the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal
Plain, which will be closest to the track of the MCV that looks to
pass south of the region. Elsewhere, POPs are 25-40%. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong wind gusts
and locally heavy rain are possible, mainly in the south. High
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today`s and near normal
(upper-80s to lower-90s) with lows Monday night again in the upper-
60s to lower-70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...
Models indicate that a weakness(remnants of the MCV moving into the
lower Ohio and Tn Valley)in the subtropical ridge will linger INVOF
the SE US coast through at least Thursday. At the surface, the lee-
side surface trough will persist while meandering over central NC.
While the weak upper disturbance/PV anomaly near the SE US coast
should become increasingly sheared with each passing day, it`s
looking increasingly likely that this feature will serve to enhance
what should otherwise be primarily diurnal rain chances through
midweek, especially across eastern NC.
By late week and through the weekend, Bermuda high pressure over the
western Atlantic will retrograde westward over the Carolinas; while
at the same time a series of mid-level shortwave troughs traversing
the Mid-MS/OH Valleys will dampen/deamplify as the move east into
the region. This will likely set up an increasingly active/stormy
pattern over the Carolinas as a diffuse frontal boundary settles
over the region.
Seasonable temps through the period, with highs ranging from upper
80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 904 PM Sunday...
Through 00Z Tuesday: Evening shower/tstm activity has mostly died
down across most of central NC, with the exception of our SW
Piedmont zones (east of KCLT). And the activity there too should
wind down in the next hour or so, and should not be an issue for any
of our TAF sites across central NC. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions at our TAF sites through 08Z, then some local fog and low
clouds (and assoc IFR or LIFR flt conditions) will develop, but
should occur particularly where the heaviest rain fell earlier
today. So KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI will have the best chance to see said
lower flt conditions Monday morning. KINT/KGSO should remain VFR all
night. Once any low clouds and fog burn off after 13Z Monday, look
for VFR conditions until the next round of afternoon/evening
showers/tstms form Monday afternoon.
After 00Z Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms are expected every
afternoon and evening through the end of the period, with chances
increasing as the week progresses. Brief drops to sub-VFR conditions
are possible in any storms. Early-morning low stratus/fog are also
possible each day through the end of the period, with chances of
this also increasing by late in the week. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...np