Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 08/04/20

National Weather Service Albany NY
1143 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in advance of Hurricane Isaias will move across the region tonight. A steady light to moderate rainfall is expected for much of Tuesday as Isaias tracks toward our area. Isaias will then move across the region later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening and bring moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds. High pressure builds in on Wednesday with drier weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 11:30PM, an area of showers and some embedded thunderstorms are advancing into the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT and should push in the Berkshires over the next hour. However, behind this area, precipitation is much weaker and disorganized. Latest HRRR suggests this area expands and intensifies as it pushes northward into the ALY CWA through the pre-dawn hours. We continue to show likely POPs after 06 UTC but if this does not materialize, we will have to trends POPs back. Given the lack of instability as per SPC mesoanalysis and tight baroclinic zone for the incoming tropical moisture to override, the HRRR may be overdone. Even so, scattered showers and some areas of steadier area are still expected overnight as moisture from what is now Hurricane Isaias continues streaming northward between the trough over the Great Lakes and sub-tropical high over the western Atlantic. This pattern is somewhat reminiscent of a 80kt+ southwesterly jet Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) per CSTAR research, where tropical moisture is advected poleward of the TC and encounters ascent in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Expected placement of this rain is across much of eastern New York into far southwestern Vermont. Lesser activity is likely across southeastern Vermont, the Berkshires and Litchfield County. Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 60s (with some upper 50s across parts of the Adirondacks). Hurricane Isaias officially made landfall near Ocean Isle, NC around 11:10PM with maximum sustained winds 85mph which is a category one hurricane. Impressively, a buoy near the NC coast reported a minimum pressure of 988mb with a weather station near Oak Island reporting a gust to 87mph. Fore more information, visit Latest National Hurricane Center predicts Isaias to downgrade back to a Tropical Storm by early Wednesday morning as it reaches the mid- Atlantic. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tropical Storm Isaias will affect the region with moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds and the potential for a tornado or two Tuesday through Tuesday night. Drier weather returns on Wednesday. Early Tuesday morning, the latest NHC forecast projects Isaias to be located inland across eastern Virginia and will continue on a northeasterly track toward eastern New York later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening and then into southern Quebec by early Wednesday. Isaias is expected to hold tropical storm intensity as it passes across the region with the potential for a slow transition to an cyclone as it does so. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the primary threat with Isaias. Tuesday will begin with continued light to moderate rainfall with the greatest corridor being across much of eastern New York into southwestern Vermont with less coverage across southeastern Vermont, Berkshire County and Litchfield County. As Isaias passes through later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, a 3- to 6-hour period of heavy rainfall is expected (especially just to the west of the low track). This rainfall will be aided by strong low to mid-level frontogenesis and a juicy airmass (with precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2.25 inches). Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible. Total rainfall of 2-4 inches is expected with locally higher amounts (especially in the upslope-favored locations). Lesser amounts are expected in Herkimer County, which is expected to be on the western edge of the heavier rain (general 1-2 inches). The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for all of the forecast area outside of Herkimer County. The greatest flooding concerns will be in low-lying and urban areas. Wind will also be an impact with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible. This would most likely occur in heavier periods of rain or convective elements as the intensity of the rain could aid in transporting strong low-level winds (50-60 kt at 850 hPa) down to the surface. With this potential, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the eastern Catskills, Hudson Valley and southern Vermont valid late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Berkshire and Litchfield counties to account for the wind threat as well. The final impact from Isaias will be the threat for isolated tornadoes on its northeastern quadrant. At this time, this includes areas south and east of the Capital District as per the latest outlook from the SPC. With the combination of the clouds and rain, high temperatures will only reach the upper 60s across the higher elevations to the low to mid-70s in the valleys. As this system departs, a few lingering showers are possible on Wednesday morning, mainly across the Adirondacks, then a drier and less humid air mass moves into the region as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Highs on Wednesday will reach the 70s to lower 80s with lows Wednesday night mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A quiescent weather pattern in the wake of TC Isaias is on tab for the long-term period. The primary driver of our sensible weather over eastern New York and western New England will be a surface high pressure system. This will bring plenty of subsidence and abundant sunshine over the area through much of the period. There`s a low grade risk (20% PoPs) for showers and storms over the area on Monday as mid to upper energy approaches from the west. The area on Monday should remain rain-free. The better chance for precipitation will be on Tuesday as the mid to upper energy is progged to be in closer in proximity to the FA. Surface temperatures during the extended will gradually trend higher/warmer going from closer to seasonable levels to slightly above average. This will largely be due to the fact that higher heights will be building over the FA as we move forward in time. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s is expected in the valleys (cooler higher elevations) at the onset of this period increasing to the mid 80s late in the period. Low temperatures will start off in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the valleys at the start of the extended increasing into the mid to upper 60s late (cooler higher elevations). Humidity levels will also be on the increase during this time frame. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main weather concerns for the terminals through the TAF period surrounds the impending impacts from Tropical Cyclone Isaias. Current satellite imagery depicts SCT-BKN VFR mid strato-cu mixed in with some high Ciro-stratus clouds over eastern New York and western New England. Ahead of TC Isaias, cloud levels will gradually lower as the afternoon and evening wears on. Rain with some embedded thunder will develop tonight over the area from south to north beginning between the hours of 01z-06z. Any showers or storms will have the potential to bring cigs/vsbys down to MVFR levels. Winds this afternoon into this evening will be out of the west- southwest and 5-10 kts. Tonight, winds will become light and variable before shifting out of the south-southeast 5-10 kts by Tuesday morning. Outlook... Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 39 kts. Definite SHRA...RA...TSRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers will return to the region tonight and continue through Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Cyclone Isaias will move across the area late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening before ending late Tuesday night. RH values will remain high through tomorrow. && .HYDROLOGY... Periods of rain associated with the northward progression of TC Isaias is expected Monday night through Tuesday night. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening as the storm makes its closest approach. QPF of 2-4" is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 6" possible. Here, rainfall rates could exceed an inch per hour, and there could be 2-4" in a 3- hour period between 18Z Tuesday and 06Z Wednesday. The heavy rainfall rates have the potential to cause flash flooding in urban, poor drainage and low lying areas. Smaller streams and creeks may also flood their banks due to the heavy rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire HSA except for Herkimer county. The ALY Hydro Service area continues to be in Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions /D0 to D1/ based on the latest US Drought Monitor. The latest MMEFS guidance continues to show low probabilities for widespread river flooding. Drier weather will return into the mid week period. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for Ctz001-013. Tropical Storm Warning for Ctz001-013. NY...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for Nyz038-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for Nazi-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084. MA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for Maz001-025. Tropical Storm Warning for Maz001-025. VT...Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for Ctz013>015. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for Ctz013>015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Evbuoma AVIATION...Evbuoma FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Thompson/Rathbun
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
809 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Kind of another dud day along the Front Range with the best pulse storm earlier southeast of Denver and over the southern Front Range foothills this afternoon. The rest of the plains have been quiet so far. Radar imagery showing some weak convection now along the Continental divide with light showers and some wind, while another batch of weakening convection over southeast Wyoming which is skirting our far northern plains with scattered showers. Evening sounding at KDNR still had some promise with just an ever so weak cap in place and a bit surprised we didn`t have more storms. Water vapor imagery did look somewhat subsident over the Denver area and right under the jet streak so maybe this feature has squashed convection somewhat. Hi resolution models don`t have much stronger convection overnight but a bit concerned about outflow from storms coming off the hills in the next few hours and potential to light up more convection. Will at least keep in some low pops for the rest of the evening, and somewhat higher pops up further north towards Wyoming and Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Latest ACARs sounding from early this afternoon has a moderate northwesterly flow aloft over the region with 70 kts around 200 mb. RAP ML CAPES around 1500 j/kg with EFF Shear 30-35kts. A dissipating cell produced a peak wind gust to 60 mph earlier this afternoon in Walden. Storms this afternoon moving fairly fast, so any heavy rainfall that develops should be brief. Latest HRRR for this afternoon and evening, seems to have the highest thunderstorm coverage over western and southern portions of the Denver area, moving most of those storms into the Palmer Divide by early this evening. Strong wind gusts to 60 mph and hail around one inch the main impact from the stronger storms. Less coverage elsewhere, but another cluster of thunderstorms impact northeast We and Logan counties late this evening. Isolated thunderstorms may linger over the far northeast plains after midnight, but quiet elsewhere. On Tuesday, another round of thunderstorms expected. Instability and shear parameters will continue to allow for marginal or slgt risk of severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds the main threats, similar to the last few days. ML CAPE values closer to 2000 j/kg in the Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures similar to today as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Thunderstorms that formed earlier in the day will be tracking southeast across the eastern plains. Still a chance a few storms could develop along the Front Range as well. With MLCAPE of 1500- 2000 J/kg and Bulk shear of 35-45 knots some of the storms are expected to be strong to severe during the early evening. Most, if not all the convection is expected to end by midnight as the airmass stabilizes. Northwest flow aloft will persist into Wednesday around an upper level ridge that extends from the Southern Rockies northwest to the Great Basin. Southeasterly low level flow will keep low level moisture across the Front Range and eastern plains. MLCAPE climbs up to 2000 J/kg Wednesday afternoon with Bulk shear of 30-40 knots. This should result in some strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. With little change in the airmass, high temperatures will be similar to the past few days as readings reach the mid to upper 80s. The upper level ridge axis shifts eastward and will move across Colorado Thursday. This will result in a westerly flow aloft. A trough of surface low pressure will be somewhere along the Front Range. To the east of it, enough moisture and instability will exist for another round of scattered strong/severe storms. To the west of the boundary, it will be drier with isolated high based convection. Temperature are expected to warm a little with upper 80s and lower 90s across northeast Colorado. For Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge sets up over the Southern and Central Rockies. This will result in a west to southwest flow aloft depending on where the center is. Drier and warmer air will be transported into the area. This will cause the chance for rain to decrease. High based showers and storms will be possible most day over the higher terrain with a few moving off to the east. Gusty winds and light rainfall will main features with the convection. If low level moisture is able to sneak in from the east. Stronger storms will be possible. Highs are expected to climb into the 90s each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 804 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Strong outflow southerly winds have impacted DEN/APA over the past hour with some weakening in the overall winds expected through 03z with light drainage winds the rest of tonight. The caveat is showers that are moving over the mountains now and may impact the terminals with w-nw winds and some showers between 03-05z. Might need to make some adjustments with this in upcoming updates to account for this. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...Entrekin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
720 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .AVIATION... The initial wind shift has cleared all the terminal locations early this evening. Surface winds have flopped to light northerly and will hold that condition throughout the forecast window. Scattered convective showers have resided north the Detroit terminals and will slowly dwindle with the loss of boundary layer heating. Additional showers are strung out along the primary cold front extending from Saginaw Bay southwest through the Lansing region - which will continue to perk as the colder air aloft washes over the relative warm boundary layer resident over much of Southeast Michigan. Expect a window of improving sky conditions across the southern terminals before the arrival of the solid MVFR cloud field associated with a secondary surge of colder air over Northern Lower Michigan. Additional scattered light shower activity is expected to develop overnight within this cohesive cloud shield - especially across the MBS and FNT airspace. Coverage and intensity will be inconsequently to aviation impacts. For DTW... Winds will be somewhat confused during the first hour or so as the northerly flow behind the initial wind shift mixes with a east/northeast flow behind a weak convective outflow working west across Wayne County. Sub-5kft ceilings will become well established late this evening. A shower is possible on the lead edge of the better cloud cover. These clouds will maintain through the night. Expect ceilings to slowly lift and possibly break during the peak heating hours of Tuesday. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling aob 5000 tonight and Tuesday. * Low for a thunderstorm this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 DISCUSSION... Global datasets depict an impressive ridge of +980dam H3 heights over Bermuda or 30N 60W. Efficient blocking is in place on the immediate cyclonic shear side of the high amplitude ridge, virtually over all of eastern North America. Locally, Southeast Michigan continues to feel the effects of neutral to even slightly positive height rises due to the exit of the shortwave Sunday. However, definite positive d/dt increase in entrance region dynamics is occurring across the Lake Huron basin southwestward with a foot here in Southeast Michigan. The synoptic scale forcing is well organized and strong enough to both induce surface low reflection over Southeast Michigan and stave off subsidence based dry advection/cold front (note surface observations across Northern Lower Michigan)for the next 18 hours or so. Special 18Z DTX raob and RAP based mesoanalysis supports a deep convectively unstable column with weak static stability through tropopause at 35 kft agl. The atmosphere remains weakly sheared with a unidirectional wind profile and less than 30 knots of environmental wind through 15 kft agl. Virtually no CIN exists across much of Southeast Michigan evidence by the numerous coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. Two boundaries have provided a focus to development here this afternoon, the first is along a line from Port Huron to Mount Pleasant, the second from Port Huron southward along the rivers to Carlton. Given the weak forcing, its been difficult to ascertain the driving mechanisms behind the boundaries. The northern boundary is probably some convergence maximum of the aforementioned weak surface reflection low and convective outflow from earlier Saginaw Bay thunderstorm activity, whereas the the north to south boundary along the rivers appears to be an artifact of enhanced convergence on western flank of pseudo warm sector/diabatic heating tongue through Lake Erie and far Southwestern Ontario. Given the weak forcing, expectations are for continued weak/mushy convective activity through the daylight hours. Loss of daytime heating will lead to development of capping inversion around 4.5 kft agl. No organized severe weather threat expected this afternoon. Potential exists for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging windgusts to 60 mph possible due to wet microbursts/waterloading. The observed rainfall rates today have been supportive of localized flooding with training or slow moving thunderstorm activity. Earlier today radar estimates suggest as much as 3.5 to 4.0 inches of rain fell over portions of northeastern St Clair County/near Port Huron. This potential will continue this afternoon although broad parameters for heavy rainfall are not that extreme, PWATS at or less 1.5 inches and very weak midlevel moisture transport vector. Complex evolution of the upper level trough will cause a main lobe of PV to pivot across Southeast Michigan on Tuesday. Models show that loss of entrance region dynamics will cause tenuous warm sector to be shunted eastward. Models showing organized low level cold air advection taking hold of all of the state. Really some competing interest on whether or not a large coverage of shower activity can develop. Large scale height falls are expected to be in place as well as the main composting trough axis. Forecast soundings are not nearly as supportive with deep column subsidence limiting convective depth potential to less than 5000 ft agl. Suspect the pocket of steep lapse rates will result in cumulus/overcast for the area, but will not be enough to generate much outside of some brief low QPF/sprinkles particularly downwind of Saginaw Bay. Seasonally more comfortable weather will carry over on Wednesday with dewpoints in the 50s. The air mass will then begin to moderate during the end of the week as deep column ridging takes hold. Sprawling surface high pressure is expected to be in place, leading to quiet weather through at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for southern Lake Huron tonight through Tuesday as cool northerly wind becomes established. The wind pattern follows low pressure exiting the Port Huron area toward Georgian Bay tonight. Thunderstorm coverage decreases near shoreline areas during the evening but the cool air over the warm lake water maintains adequate instability for scattered showers and a chance for waterspouts tonight through Tuesday. High pressure then gains territory over the central Great Lakes Tuesday night leading to favorable marine conditions for the mid week period. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ441>443. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....Mann DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......BT You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1022 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .DISCUSSION... Looks to remain mostly dry through the rest of the night. Latest HRRR guidance has been indicating scattered showers developing late tonight across central/southern sections of east central Florida. However, MOS and hi-res model guidance has been overplaying rain chances by quite a bit. Will therefore keep rain chances largely out of the forecast for land areas, except for some slight chance PoPs toward the Treasure Coast late. Better potential for any redeveloping showers and possibly a few storms will be over the gulf stream after midnight. Skies will be mostly clear with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION...Dry air behind Isaias continues to keep convection very limited this evening. VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds this evening are from the W at 5-10KT for the inland sites, and out of the SE at 5-10KT along the coast. The sea breeze has formed and is moving inland. Took all mention of precip out for the evening and overnight hours. Boundary collisions along the sea breeze may produce showers, but the dry stable air will make the convection short lived. Tomorrow, winds will start off SW around 5KT before veering to WSW/W at 5-10KT by late morning. By the afternoon the winds will back to the SE around 10KT along the coast as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Included VCTS for all sites starting at 18Z. && .MARINE...Southerly winds around 10-15 knots will persist offshore tonight. Have allowed all SCA headlines to expire as seas continue to decrease with Isaias moving farther away from the area. However, will continue exercise caution headlines offshore, north of Sebastian Inlet, for lingering seas up to 6 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 93 76 91 / 10 60 30 60 MCO 76 95 77 92 / 10 60 30 60 MLB 75 90 78 89 / 10 60 30 60 VRB 75 91 76 90 / 20 60 30 60 LEE 77 95 78 94 / 10 50 20 60 SFB 77 95 76 94 / 10 60 30 60 ORL 78 95 77 93 / 10 60 30 60 FPR 73 92 77 91 / 20 60 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Weitlich/Smith/Watson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
548 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday evening) Short-wave trough currently moving from northeast Idaho into central Montana in west-southwest mid- to upper-level flow. Mid- level lapse rates greater than 9 have helped isolated convection start before noon today and increased cloudiness to western WY a bit earlier than expected. Forecast still on track for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northeast two-thirds of the area, primarily east of the divide. SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe storms extending from northern YNP eastward to Big Horn County, then southeast into Natrona County, and everything northeast. The stronger storms are likely to produce hail around one inch and 40-60 mph wind gusts. Low-level helicity may help weak supercells to develop as well. Though the HRRR is not capturing the late morning convection, storms should generally develop by 2pm and continue through about 8-9pm. Lingering showers and expected across Johnson County through 2am. Southwest WY will see winds increase from the west this afternoon with gusts 25-30 mph and humidities below 15% for critical fire weather conditions. As the system moves into the northern plains early Tuesday morning, the trailing higher surface pressure will bring a cool front into northern and central WY east of the divide. 700mb temps are expected to drop by 4-6 deg C to bring max temps Tuesday to near of below normal in the 80s. The exception will be southwest WY where very warm, dry, and breezy conditions will continue the critical fire weather conditions for another day. Tuesday afternoon will see isolated convection over the mountains east of the divide with the storms moving to the southeast, much like many days last week. Weak ridging over the Intermountain West es expected to develop late Tuesday/early Wednesday, weakening the surface pressure gradient over the area and decreasing surface winds. Increased cloudiness with very light showers should linger across northern WY late Tuesday and the stationary boundary sets up once again. .LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Sunday) The models continue to indicate that a ridge will be building into the region Wednesday from the southwest, with slightly warmer temps expected. Will keep in a chance of mainly widely scattered showers/storms on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to weak shortwaves moving mainly across north and into northeast Wyoming. Southern sections of the forecast area will remain dry through Thursday. As the ridge builds into the region on Thursday and Friday, we will see an increase in southwest winds in the afternoons, especially across the southern wind corridor from Sweetwater and into Natrona counties. Fire weather conditions are again expected to reach into the elevated status again especially across the south on both Thursday and Friday due to the increased winds. This could create some elevated fire weather conditions once again. The models again hint that a minor shortwave will move east across northern Wyoming on Friday with a few isolated storms possible mainly in the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF models are now indicating for the upcoming weekend that the forecast area will remain in a ridge axis with mainly dry conditions. Will not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northwest Wyoming on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Expect high temperatures to remain in the 80s to low 90s except in the 70s in the northwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday) Conditions will remain VFR at all terminals through 00Z/Wednesday. Outflow boundary collisions with ongoing convection will persist until around sunset with possible outflow wind impacts to terminals east of the Continental Divide. Weak frontal boundary will push through areas east of the Continental Divide late Tuesday morning and afternoon with north-northeast wind in its wake. KRKS, KBPI, and KPNA can expect gusty west-northwest wind to increase by early Tuesday afternoon with gusts 20-25kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Disturbance moving from eastern Idaho into southern Montana today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northern and eastern parts of the forecast area today. Some of the storms from YNP to the Bighorns and into Johnson and Natrona Counties could be quite strong, with hail and strong gusty winds. Dry, very warm, and breezy to windy conditions expected for southwest and southern WY this afternoon; thus a red flag warning in in effect from 1300 to 2000 today. Cooler northerly flow will push down east of the divide early Tuesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the mountains, can be expected again Tuesday afternoon east of the divide. Southwest WY will again see breezy west wind with dry warm flow. The red flag warning continues for zones 277, 278, and 279 Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks to be an in between day with continued cooler temps with some showers. Thursday and Friday are shaping up for more elevated fire weather conditions from southern into central WY. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ277>279. && $$ SHORT TERM...McDonald LONG TERM...Troutman AVIATION...CNJ FIRE WEATHER...McDonald