Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/16/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
959 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Modified sky cover based on latest sat imagery. Otherwise not many
changes with this forecast issuance. Kept thunder chances in my
far southeast with models indicating a low level jet developing
overnight along with the RAP showing some elevated instability.
Whether or not any activity develops and makes it into North
Dakota is uncertain, but CAMs still show something near the
southern James Valley overnight.
UPDATE
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
No big changes to the forecast with this update. Thunderstorms
winding down across the southern James so trended POPs there down
a bit faster. Will maintain shower chances this evening northwest
into central as a S/WV moves east across the area. The chance of
anything reaching the ground is fairly low. Kept overnight
shower/thunderstorm chances as is for now across my southeast and
will reevaluate later.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
A chance for isolated thunderstorms in the James River Valley this
evening and overnight highlights the short term forecast.
This afternoon, surface high pressure was centered to the
southeast of the forecast area in eastern South Dakota, while both
a surface low and a closed low aloft were placed to our north in
northern Manitoba. Cyclonic flow aloft continues with a few subtle
shortwaves moving through. One brings a chance for a few isolated
thunderstorms to the James River Valley this evening and
overnight, but not expecting anything severe with only a few
hundred j/kg of CAPE available. A cu field has begun developing in
this area along a subtle zone of increased moisture and a wind
shift, with light radar reflectivities just beginning to show up
as of 1930 UTC. Elsewhere, a vort max moving southeast through the
forecast area brings the chance for some scattered rain showers
this evening, from the Williston area to the Carrington area.
Could maybe see a few flashes of lightning with these showers, but
with instability even lower than in the James River Valley, would
be surprised to see any thunderstorms develop.
Again dropped lows tonight a few degrees below national blend to be
closer to MOS guidance...scattered cloud cover will keep temps
slightly warmer, but lows last night were well below national blend
so will follow that trend. This puts some locations in the west in
the upper 40s, especially our typical cool spots in the southwest.
Mostly dry and sunny again on Thursday, as a shallow upper level
ridge begins to push into the Northern Plains, with highs
generally in the 80s across the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Main concern in the extended period is strong to severe
thunderstorms and hot temperatures on Friday.
As the upper ridge moves through the Dakotas on Friday, southerly
low-level flow will increase ahead of a surface trough and cold
front forecast to push through across the state. Aloft, a potent
shortwave moving through at the same time will increase wind shear
on top of the developing unstable air mass in the warm sector. As
the previous shift noted, central into eastern North Dakota are
included in SPC`s slight risk on Friday, with CIPs severe analog
highlighting a similar location.
Speed of the frontal boundary could significantly impact the threat
ceiling and where severe weather will be possible on Friday...a
few hours of additional moisture advection would increase
instability, as well as extend the area at risk back to the west,
whereas a quick- moving front would likely limit convection to the
eastern portion of the forecast area. This is seen well in the
difference between 12Z NAM and GFS soundings at Bismarck vs
Jamestown - there are modest differences at Bismarck, which is
closer to where convection might begin, compared to more similar
soundings at Jamestown. Soundings for both Bismarck and Jamestown
present many analogs for very large hail, which is of concern
given the discrete storm move favored (at least initially), high
instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse
rates. Damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall are also a
threat, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Still many
subtleties to work out leading up to Friday afternoon and evening,
but confidence is beginning to increase in severe thunderstorms
occurring in the central to eastern parts of the forecast area.
With this update, guidance is favoring the James River Valley as
the area with the highest chance to see storms become severe, but
this could certainly change by Friday afternoon.
Other point of concern on Friday, outside of the severe storm
threat, is the heat. Forecast highs on Friday are in the upper
80s to mid 90s, and with dew points expected to reach the upper
60s to lower 70s in the south central and James River Valley, heat
indices could reach the upper 90s to maybe even the lower 100s in
those parts of the forecast area.
As the front exits on Saturday, highs will be back closer to
normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. We return to a more active
pattern with on and off chances for thunderstorms through the
weekend and into the start of next week, with temperatures near to
slightly below normal. CIPs analogs and other extended guidance
are hinting at slightly above average temps and below average
precipitation for the middle and end of next week, but no real
strong trends have emerged for the last week or so of July.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
VFR conditions expected for the 00Z TAF period. An area of BKN-OVC
mid level clouds will move from west to east this evening with sky
cover decreasing late tonight into Thursday. Winds will trend
light and variable/calm this evening before transitioning to
northwesterly on Thursday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge will remain over the region for the next
couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low.
Diurnally driven thunderstorms may increase late in the weekend
into early next week as ridge weakens and weak front moves
toward the area. Temperatures at or above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar showing some lingering convection across the
northern Midlands due to intersecting outflow boundaries.
However, expect the convection to wane over the next couple of
hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. Adjusted hourly
pops to account for the ongoing showers. Warm afternoon
temperatures in the upper 90s will lead to warm overnight lows
tonight under mostly clear skies. Overnight lows generally
expected to be in the mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the area with warming temps at 700 mb should
result in a stronger cap Thursday and possibly Friday. Surface
ridge extending into the area from the Mid Atlantic region.
Steep low level lapse rates due to strong continued diabatic
heating resulting in weak to possibly moderate instability
although deeper moisture remains northwest of the region across
NC Mountains. Any convection should be limited to possible sea
breeze front and weak convergence in the SC Piedmont. continued
Isolated pops and temps at or above normal in the mid to
possibly upper 90s. Muggy conditions at night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By the weekend, the center of the upper ridge moves off to the
west, closer to the southern plains. In general, the entire
ridge will stretch across the southern states into early next
week. Moisture may increase over the weekend with surface
trough development across the area. Showers and thunderstorms
expected to remain scattered and mainly diurnal but blended
guidance continues to suggest higher pops early next week. Temps
near or above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions outside of possible brief early morning
fog/stratus and isolated diurnal convection.
Isolated convection will continue to diminish this evening with
no impacts expected at the terminals based on current radar
trends. The focus then shifts to potential for late night/early
morning fog at the terminals. The NAM and HRRR continue to show
potential for stratus, but confidence in development is too low
to include at this time. For now, continued with TEMPO group for
fog at AGS based on persistence. Any fog/stratus is expected to
improve Thursday morning with heating and mixing. Only isolated
diurnally driven convection expected on Thursday, so did not
include mention given expected low coverage.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Flight restrictions are possible
during afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and early
morning fog each day.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1045 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Weak mid level ridging was ongoing near the CO/KS line with an
uncapped surface layer from Dodge City westward this afternoon.
The good CAPE axis is focused immediately southeast of Elkhart.
The HiRES models have been far more robust in developing a broken
line of convection from this evening through about midnight,
across our western half whereas the HRRR collapses these storms
at the CO line without allowing them to be maintained as elevated
through the evening. If the HiRES models are over convecting, the
extreme western counties could possible see a brief window with
potential severe winds. The other more likely scenario will be no
convection at all with a cluster driven along the aforementioned
instability axis in the panhandles.
Overnight, a 700 mb level impulse ejects from the sw Co and western
OK, following the initial panhandle convection, which could drive
a large cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms to impact
the southeast sections of the area (Comanche, Barber counties,
etc) through around 12 UTC. Any storms would have moved though
by Thursday morning. Given weak forcing involved, the chances of
precipitation overnight is more likely in these southeast sections
than In the west during the late evening. Generally a limited
overall severe weather threat in the short term.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
As temperatures warm again into the low 100s excessive heat risk due
to elevated apparent temperatures (heat indices) should be limited
to around 15 degrees briefly each afternoon , mainly in the south
central Kansas counties Friday though Sunday. Overall convective
risk will be a challenge day to day Thursday and again in the
Saturday/Saturday night timeframe, but the overall period is mainly
a return to dry and hot.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
VFR conditions are expected this TAF period for all terminals
with the exception being LBL where the highest probability of
thunderstorms resides in the 06-08Z time frame. By Thursday
morning some stratus may affect HYS, DDC, and GCK, however cigs
are no longer expected to drop below VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 91 70 101 / 30 10 10 0
GCK 65 91 69 100 / 30 10 10 0
EHA 66 93 69 100 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 66 94 70 103 / 30 10 10 0
HYS 64 90 70 97 / 10 10 20 0
P28 70 92 72 101 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Springer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020
.AVIATION...
Deeper moisture advection caused by increasing cyclonic flow
trajectories is impinging down on the Tri Cities/Saginaw Valley at
taf time. Will largely maintain the inherited timing of
shower/thunderstorms in the TAFs from north to south. Model
soundings show strong static stability holding across the southern
forecast area through at least 09Z. Eventually, the deep cyclonic
circulation and wave of low pressure will push through Metro Detroit
and the southern TAF 09-15Z. Uncertainty remains with the coverage
of shower and thunderstorm activity with this system. Most recent
HRRR runs are very limited in coverage and RAP soundings remain lean
on depth of saturation for this event. Given widespread upstream
activity currently ongoing and the favorable synoptic scale forcing
for ascent, both direct differential cyclonic vorticity advection and
right entrance region dynamics, preference continues to favor a more
robust/aggressive rain expectation 08-14Z.
For DTW...Uncertainty does exist with coverage of shower and
thunderstorm activity late tonight early Thursday. However, ongoing
activity upstream and favorable forcing supports 08-14Z time window.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low in thunderstorms impacting the terminal late tonight into
early Thursday morning.
* Low in cigs aob 5kft after about 06z tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020
DISCUSSION...
One more day of dry and above normal temperatures through the
remainder of today before increasing moisture brings widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow. Initial signs
of this moisture is seen in the high cloud debris from the
downstream convective system across IA/MO/IL with denser low/mid
clouds now over IL and northwest IN. A baroclinic zone/stalled
frontal boundary has set up today between the amplifying ridge
exiting to our northeast and troughing extending through the
northern plans. This frontal boundary has stalled out just to our
west and stretches from northern lower Michigan southwest into MO.
This has left a corridor of better moisture and forcing this
afternoon across west/central Michigan into northern Lower Michigan
where there are ongoing showers and thunderstorms. This activity
should hold off to the northwest through early evening with only a
few stray showers possible across portions far northwest portions of
the CWA in Bay and Midland counties.
The main plume of moisture and better theta-e will not arrive until
tonight as the main shortwave energy and surface low traveling along
the slowly advancing frontal boundary moves into southeast Michigan
after 06Z. Southwest winds ramping up with the nocturnal jet will
help increase 850 mb moisture transport. With moisture ties to the
Gulf, PWAT values are forecast rise well above 1.50 inches with
values approaching 2.00 inches along the MI/OH border. The highest
PWATs will be centered over the CWA between 09Z-15Z tonight through
tomorrow morning and then begin decreasing through tomorrow
afternoon. This opens the door for the possibility of some localized
heavy rain during this time as the surface low progresses across
lower Michigan. Heaviest rainfall potential will be associated with
any thunderstorms and areas of more organized deformation forcing as
the weakening wave progresses along the southern Michigan border.
Expectation is for widespread precipitation with potential for some
higher localized swaths of heavier rainfall possibly to around 1.00
inch. Severe weather potential will remain limited given the
unfavorable nocturnal timing and generally weak instability.
Precipitation tapers off during the late afternoon/early evening
hours as the low lifts further off to the northeast. The expected
rainfall with extensive cloud cover through peak heating tomorrow
will hold high temperatures down several degrees back to around
normal values. There will be a decreasing cloud trend into tomorrow
night as the low lifts off to the northeast, but dewpoints expected
to remain in the low 60s will keep humidity elevated.
Surface high pressure begins to drift eastward across the Ohio River
Valley allowing for lower level height rises to stretch northward
into Michigan under mostly zonal flow from 500 mb and above. This
will result in another stretch of warmer weather with high
temperatures around 90 degrees on Friday increasing to lower 90s for
most of southeast Michigan. Lower level southwest flow around the
southeastern US ridge will continue to draw higher moisture into
Michigan over the weekend maintaining muggy conditions. Could see a
few pop up thunderstorms on Saturday given the degree of moisture an
instability when a shortwave skirts across the northern Lakes, but
imagine that dry conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon
before better jet dynamics provide support for convection with
anomalously high dewpoints late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
There will be a risk of heat stress over the weekend as well as heat
indices rise to mid/upper 90s. Still some uncertainty in regards to
convection and timing over the weekend, which could also affect high
temperatures.
MARINE...
A low pressure system advances into the central Great Lakes region
tonight and tomorrow, bringing the chance for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold front. Southerly winds
will shift to northwesterly with the passage of the frontal boundary
tonight, with gusts of around 15 knots possible over the marine
areas. Locally higher winds and seas are also possible with any
thunderstorm activity that develops, along with heavy rain and
lightning. As the low exits the region Thursday night, winds will
gradually back to the southwest and high pressure will begin to
build into the Ohio Valley. This area of high pressure will persist
into the weekend, before another low pressure system moves through
the central Great Lakes early on Sunday.
HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall will move into southeast Michigan tonight
through t omorrow morning as a low pressure system tracks along the
southern Michigan border. Most areas can expect rainfall totals of
0.25 to 0.75 inches with some areas focused along and between the
I-69 and I- 94 corridors that could see rainfall totals approaching
1.00 inch. A few thunderstorms remain possible and some areas of more
organized areas of forcing that could bring localized swaths greater
than 1.00 inch. Expect any flooding threat that may arise to be
confined to low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially across any
urban locations. Basin average precipitation should remain low enough
to not pose any river flooding concerns, but small rises on local
rivers is possible.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....AA
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020
...Update for 00Z TAF Cycle...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
TSRA will be the main impact across the region next 6 hours.
Temporary IFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites due to
TSRA with the highest chances between 00-04Z. Winds variable and
outflow driven this evening, with gusts to 50KTS possible. Outside
of thunderstorms, prevailing flow will be 280-310 at 15G25KT.
Skies SCT-BKN120 with decreasing CIGs to OVC060CB within TS. VFR
conditions expected to prevail after 06Z tonight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper high over northern Texas will permit a moist southerly flow
across the Borderland tonight, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms. The high pressure will build over the area Thursday
into the weekend. This will force the much of the moisture out
further west. So the best chance of thunderstorms into the weekend
will be over the mountains and west of Deming. Areas to the east
will still see isolated storms. Temperatures will slowly
continuing decreasing with lower triple digit lowland temperatures
through Sunday, and then in the upper 90s beginning of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Through Thursday...
The UL high is near Wichita Falls per RAP analysis, and this has
allowed our temperatures to be less hot as well as allow some
moisture to move into the Borderland. This morning`s sounding
showed 1.17" of PW, and dewpoints this afternoon are within a few
degrees of 50. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again this afternoon with development initially over the mountains
before moving/developing into the lowlands as the afternoon and
evening progress. Multiple CAMs suggest showers and thunderstorms
may last well into the night as a weak impulse moves out of
Mexico. This would be a situation similar to what was seen last
night and into this morning. DCAPE values this afternoon look to
range from 1400 to 1800 J/kg, which suggests a few storms could
have severe caliber winds.
The UL high will begin to build back westward tomorrow, which
will cause moisture to shove west as well. Thunderstorms will be
still be possible tomorrow afternoon, but with less coverage than
seen yesterday and today. Mountains and areas west of the divide
will have the best chance for any thunderstorms. Highs will also
be comparable or slightly warmer than today.
&&
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday...
Upper high nearly stationary over northern Texas Thursday night
and Friday as it continues to build higher heights over the CWA.
Both GFS/ECMWF show slight shift in moisture, with main plume
concentrated further west. So for most of this entire period, put
higher POPs over the mountains and western zones. Models certainly
not scouring out moisture in the east-PWs remain around .9 - 1.1"
area wide (about seasonally normal), so can`t really remove POPs
from any zones.
Longer trend Sunday night into first part of next week...upper
high and ridge may lift a bit further north, increasing east flow
aloft. Inverted trough may pass through Sunday night or Monday,
but probably not worth the effort of fashioning grids to this
feature this far out. Hence kept POP fields relatively broad
brushed. More noticeable trend is in temperatures, where we peaked
out Sat/Sun/Mon and will continue slow downward trend, perhaps
still in the lower triple digits through about Sunday and then
back into the upper 90s to start the week ahead.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over mountains
before moving/developing into the lowlands later this afternoon
and evening. For areas that don`t see rainfall, RH recovery to
near 50 percent is expected across most lowland locations with
values up to around 90 percent in the mountains. Hot but seasonal
temperatures tomorrow as well as the import of drier air into
areas east of the divide will cause min RH values to fall to near
or just below critical thresholds for most lowland locations.
Thunderstorms will be possible again for tomorrow but with lesser
coverage expected than today, initially favoring mountains before
moving/developing into the lowlands in the evening. Winds will be
light for all areas except where influenced by gusty outflow
winds. Friday will feature similar conditions to Thursday. Vent
rates will be range from very good to excellent on Thursday then
fair to very good on Friday. Conditions will remain status quo
into the weekend as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 103 77 101 / 30 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 67 98 72 97 / 30 0 0 0
Las Cruces 71 100 72 99 / 30 20 20 0
Alamogordo 71 104 73 101 / 40 20 20 10
Cloudcroft 52 79 53 75 / 30 40 20 40
Truth or Consequences 72 100 73 98 / 40 30 30 10
Silver City 66 93 66 91 / 20 30 30 20
Deming 69 102 70 99 / 30 20 20 0
Lordsburg 69 100 71 97 / 20 30 30 0
West El Paso Metro 76 104 77 101 / 30 10 10 0
Dell City 69 104 73 102 / 30 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 72 105 76 102 / 30 0 0 0
Loma Linda 72 98 73 95 / 30 10 10 0
Fabens 74 103 75 102 / 20 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 72 102 74 100 / 30 10 10 0
White Sands HQ 75 102 75 99 / 30 10 20 0
Jornada Range 71 101 71 99 / 40 20 20 0
Hatch 71 103 72 100 / 30 20 20 0
Columbus 72 102 73 99 / 20 10 10 0
Orogrande 73 103 75 100 / 30 10 10 0
Mayhill 57 90 60 86 / 30 40 10 30
Mescalero 56 89 59 86 / 40 40 20 40
Timberon 54 87 59 84 / 30 30 10 20
Winston 57 92 62 90 / 30 40 20 30
Hillsboro 65 100 68 98 / 30 30 20 20
Spaceport 69 100 70 98 / 30 20 20 0
Lake Roberts 58 93 58 91 / 20 40 20 40
Hurley 64 97 66 95 / 20 30 30 20
Cliff 59 99 65 97 / 20 40 20 20
Mule Creek 66 95 65 95 / 20 40 30 10
Faywood 66 98 67 96 / 30 30 20 20
Animas 69 100 71 98 / 30 30 30 0
Hachita 66 100 69 97 / 30 20 20 0
Antelope Wells 68 99 70 97 / 40 40 40 20
Cloverdale 66 94 67 91 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
34/17/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
952 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the
Southeast through the end of the week. Hot and humid conditions
will continue along with the threat of isolated thunderstorms.
Storm coverage will increase early next week, as ridging aloft
starts to weaken.
&&
.UPDATE/...
Convection hasn`t ended but it has vacated the forecast area
and lift sources are fading. Weak MCS energy will drift from
Britton Neck to Hannah to Olanta through evening, and a pop up
shower may bubble in this corridor the next couple of hours,
otherwise a fair overnight appear on tap, with several shallow
banks of mist likely to form late over interior zones.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CU fields indicating that the HRRR idea of inland/NC zones being the
areas most likely to see shower/thunderstorm coverage though likely
not quite with the gusto implied by the model this evening. Have
also raised POPs into the low end chance range over inland SC zones
in deference to the WRF which shows a surface-based trough lift
northward into the region. Tonight will bring the normal diurnal
waning of convection-likely down to nothing. Sky cover overnight
will hinge a bit on convective coverage today as it will likely be
confined to just some mid to high level debris clouds. PW values
fall just enough on Thursday that most guidance is not showing much
in the way of meaningful rain chances. This isn`t terribly common in
July so have dotted the seabreeze boundary with some 20 POPs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high off the New England coast Fri morning will sink south,
ending up in the typical Bermuda High location Sat. Aloft an
elongated mid-level ridge over much of the southern CONUS will
weaken slightly. The weakening of the ridge Sat and development of
deep southerly flow will open the door for isolated afternoon and
evening convection, especially along the sea breeze and the Piedmont
trough. Along the coast onshore flow and the sea breeze will keep
highs near climo while inland areas end up running a little above
climo. Lows Fri and Sat night will run a couple degrees above
climo.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bermuda High and weakening, but persistent mid-level ridge will
remain in place into the middle of next week. This is a pretty
standard pattern for the summer in the Southeast. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above climo with daily rounds of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze and the
Piedmont trough.
- Highs around 90 near the coast and in the mid 90s inland
- Lows in the lower 70s
- Scattered afternoon storms each day
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Outside of isolated TSTMs, and mist between 8z-11z, full VFR.
Isolated convection very early TAF cycle will dwindle, refire
again but only isolated at most, Thursday afternoon. Overall
light wind, becoming SE 6-11 knots Thursday afternoon. TSTMs
if any, will remain avoidable and widely separated this TAF
cycle.
Extended Outlook...Convection will increase into the weekend
as the ridge aloft weakens, this will lead to higher chances of
brief MVFR/IFR, induced by nearby storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Rather than the normal Bermuda High often in place this time of year
the wind-maker will be high pressure over the New England coast
through Thursday night. Flow around this anticyclone will keep wind
out of the east locally at speeds that will be hard pressed to
exceed 10 knots. The small wind waves paired with a small ESE swell
will keep seas around 2 to occasionally 3 ft.
High pressure off the New England coast Fri morning will sink south,
near Bermuda Sat. The high will linger off the coast into next week,
ensuring continued light south to southwest flow. Gradient remains
weak with speeds around 10 kt. Development of afternoon sea breeze
leads to a slight increase in onshore flow near the coast each day.
Seas 2 to 3 ft through Mon, a mix of weak wind wave and weak swell.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8
MARINE...MBB