Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/16/20


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
959 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Modified sky cover based on latest sat imagery. Otherwise not many changes with this forecast issuance. Kept thunder chances in my far southeast with models indicating a low level jet developing overnight along with the RAP showing some elevated instability. Whether or not any activity develops and makes it into North Dakota is uncertain, but CAMs still show something near the southern James Valley overnight. UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 No big changes to the forecast with this update. Thunderstorms winding down across the southern James so trended POPs there down a bit faster. Will maintain shower chances this evening northwest into central as a S/WV moves east across the area. The chance of anything reaching the ground is fairly low. Kept overnight shower/thunderstorm chances as is for now across my southeast and will reevaluate later. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 A chance for isolated thunderstorms in the James River Valley this evening and overnight highlights the short term forecast. This afternoon, surface high pressure was centered to the southeast of the forecast area in eastern South Dakota, while both a surface low and a closed low aloft were placed to our north in northern Manitoba. Cyclonic flow aloft continues with a few subtle shortwaves moving through. One brings a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms to the James River Valley this evening and overnight, but not expecting anything severe with only a few hundred j/kg of CAPE available. A cu field has begun developing in this area along a subtle zone of increased moisture and a wind shift, with light radar reflectivities just beginning to show up as of 1930 UTC. Elsewhere, a vort max moving southeast through the forecast area brings the chance for some scattered rain showers this evening, from the Williston area to the Carrington area. Could maybe see a few flashes of lightning with these showers, but with instability even lower than in the James River Valley, would be surprised to see any thunderstorms develop. Again dropped lows tonight a few degrees below national blend to be closer to MOS guidance...scattered cloud cover will keep temps slightly warmer, but lows last night were well below national blend so will follow that trend. This puts some locations in the west in the upper 40s, especially our typical cool spots in the southwest. Mostly dry and sunny again on Thursday, as a shallow upper level ridge begins to push into the Northern Plains, with highs generally in the 80s across the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Main concern in the extended period is strong to severe thunderstorms and hot temperatures on Friday. As the upper ridge moves through the Dakotas on Friday, southerly low-level flow will increase ahead of a surface trough and cold front forecast to push through across the state. Aloft, a potent shortwave moving through at the same time will increase wind shear on top of the developing unstable air mass in the warm sector. As the previous shift noted, central into eastern North Dakota are included in SPC`s slight risk on Friday, with CIPs severe analog highlighting a similar location. Speed of the frontal boundary could significantly impact the threat ceiling and where severe weather will be possible on Friday...a few hours of additional moisture advection would increase instability, as well as extend the area at risk back to the west, whereas a quick- moving front would likely limit convection to the eastern portion of the forecast area. This is seen well in the difference between 12Z NAM and GFS soundings at Bismarck vs Jamestown - there are modest differences at Bismarck, which is closer to where convection might begin, compared to more similar soundings at Jamestown. Soundings for both Bismarck and Jamestown present many analogs for very large hail, which is of concern given the discrete storm move favored (at least initially), high instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall are also a threat, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Still many subtleties to work out leading up to Friday afternoon and evening, but confidence is beginning to increase in severe thunderstorms occurring in the central to eastern parts of the forecast area. With this update, guidance is favoring the James River Valley as the area with the highest chance to see storms become severe, but this could certainly change by Friday afternoon. Other point of concern on Friday, outside of the severe storm threat, is the heat. Forecast highs on Friday are in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and with dew points expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in the south central and James River Valley, heat indices could reach the upper 90s to maybe even the lower 100s in those parts of the forecast area. As the front exits on Saturday, highs will be back closer to normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s. We return to a more active pattern with on and off chances for thunderstorms through the weekend and into the start of next week, with temperatures near to slightly below normal. CIPs analogs and other extended guidance are hinting at slightly above average temps and below average precipitation for the middle and end of next week, but no real strong trends have emerged for the last week or so of July. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 VFR conditions expected for the 00Z TAF period. An area of BKN-OVC mid level clouds will move from west to east this evening with sky cover decreasing late tonight into Thursday. Winds will trend light and variable/calm this evening before transitioning to northwesterly on Thursday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1042 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge will remain over the region for the next couple of days so thunderstorm threat appears low. Diurnally driven thunderstorms may increase late in the weekend into early next week as ridge weakens and weak front moves toward the area. Temperatures at or above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Regional radar showing some lingering convection across the northern Midlands due to intersecting outflow boundaries. However, expect the convection to wane over the next couple of hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. Adjusted hourly pops to account for the ongoing showers. Warm afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s will lead to warm overnight lows tonight under mostly clear skies. Overnight lows generally expected to be in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge over the area with warming temps at 700 mb should result in a stronger cap Thursday and possibly Friday. Surface ridge extending into the area from the Mid Atlantic region. Steep low level lapse rates due to strong continued diabatic heating resulting in weak to possibly moderate instability although deeper moisture remains northwest of the region across NC Mountains. Any convection should be limited to possible sea breeze front and weak convergence in the SC Piedmont. continued Isolated pops and temps at or above normal in the mid to possibly upper 90s. Muggy conditions at night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By the weekend, the center of the upper ridge moves off to the west, closer to the southern plains. In general, the entire ridge will stretch across the southern states into early next week. Moisture may increase over the weekend with surface trough development across the area. Showers and thunderstorms expected to remain scattered and mainly diurnal but blended guidance continues to suggest higher pops early next week. Temps near or above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions outside of possible brief early morning fog/stratus and isolated diurnal convection. Isolated convection will continue to diminish this evening with no impacts expected at the terminals based on current radar trends. The focus then shifts to potential for late night/early morning fog at the terminals. The NAM and HRRR continue to show potential for stratus, but confidence in development is too low to include at this time. For now, continued with TEMPO group for fog at AGS based on persistence. Any fog/stratus is expected to improve Thursday morning with heating and mixing. Only isolated diurnally driven convection expected on Thursday, so did not include mention given expected low coverage. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Flight restrictions are possible during afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and early morning fog each day. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1045 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Weak mid level ridging was ongoing near the CO/KS line with an uncapped surface layer from Dodge City westward this afternoon. The good CAPE axis is focused immediately southeast of Elkhart. The HiRES models have been far more robust in developing a broken line of convection from this evening through about midnight, across our western half whereas the HRRR collapses these storms at the CO line without allowing them to be maintained as elevated through the evening. If the HiRES models are over convecting, the extreme western counties could possible see a brief window with potential severe winds. The other more likely scenario will be no convection at all with a cluster driven along the aforementioned instability axis in the panhandles. Overnight, a 700 mb level impulse ejects from the sw Co and western OK, following the initial panhandle convection, which could drive a large cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms to impact the southeast sections of the area (Comanche, Barber counties, etc) through around 12 UTC. Any storms would have moved though by Thursday morning. Given weak forcing involved, the chances of precipitation overnight is more likely in these southeast sections than In the west during the late evening. Generally a limited overall severe weather threat in the short term. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 As temperatures warm again into the low 100s excessive heat risk due to elevated apparent temperatures (heat indices) should be limited to around 15 degrees briefly each afternoon , mainly in the south central Kansas counties Friday though Sunday. Overall convective risk will be a challenge day to day Thursday and again in the Saturday/Saturday night timeframe, but the overall period is mainly a return to dry and hot. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 VFR conditions are expected this TAF period for all terminals with the exception being LBL where the highest probability of thunderstorms resides in the 06-08Z time frame. By Thursday morning some stratus may affect HYS, DDC, and GCK, however cigs are no longer expected to drop below VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 91 70 101 / 30 10 10 0 GCK 65 91 69 100 / 30 10 10 0 EHA 66 93 69 100 / 30 10 10 0 LBL 66 94 70 103 / 30 10 10 0 HYS 64 90 70 97 / 10 10 20 0 P28 70 92 72 101 / 50 10 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Springer
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1201 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020 .AVIATION... Deeper moisture advection caused by increasing cyclonic flow trajectories is impinging down on the Tri Cities/Saginaw Valley at taf time. Will largely maintain the inherited timing of shower/thunderstorms in the TAFs from north to south. Model soundings show strong static stability holding across the southern forecast area through at least 09Z. Eventually, the deep cyclonic circulation and wave of low pressure will push through Metro Detroit and the southern TAF 09-15Z. Uncertainty remains with the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity with this system. Most recent HRRR runs are very limited in coverage and RAP soundings remain lean on depth of saturation for this event. Given widespread upstream activity currently ongoing and the favorable synoptic scale forcing for ascent, both direct differential cyclonic vorticity advection and right entrance region dynamics, preference continues to favor a more robust/aggressive rain expectation 08-14Z. For DTW...Uncertainty does exist with coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity late tonight early Thursday. However, ongoing activity upstream and favorable forcing supports 08-14Z time window. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms impacting the terminal late tonight into early Thursday morning. * Low in cigs aob 5kft after about 06z tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 DISCUSSION... One more day of dry and above normal temperatures through the remainder of today before increasing moisture brings widespread showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow. Initial signs of this moisture is seen in the high cloud debris from the downstream convective system across IA/MO/IL with denser low/mid clouds now over IL and northwest IN. A baroclinic zone/stalled frontal boundary has set up today between the amplifying ridge exiting to our northeast and troughing extending through the northern plans. This frontal boundary has stalled out just to our west and stretches from northern lower Michigan southwest into MO. This has left a corridor of better moisture and forcing this afternoon across west/central Michigan into northern Lower Michigan where there are ongoing showers and thunderstorms. This activity should hold off to the northwest through early evening with only a few stray showers possible across portions far northwest portions of the CWA in Bay and Midland counties. The main plume of moisture and better theta-e will not arrive until tonight as the main shortwave energy and surface low traveling along the slowly advancing frontal boundary moves into southeast Michigan after 06Z. Southwest winds ramping up with the nocturnal jet will help increase 850 mb moisture transport. With moisture ties to the Gulf, PWAT values are forecast rise well above 1.50 inches with values approaching 2.00 inches along the MI/OH border. The highest PWATs will be centered over the CWA between 09Z-15Z tonight through tomorrow morning and then begin decreasing through tomorrow afternoon. This opens the door for the possibility of some localized heavy rain during this time as the surface low progresses across lower Michigan. Heaviest rainfall potential will be associated with any thunderstorms and areas of more organized deformation forcing as the weakening wave progresses along the southern Michigan border. Expectation is for widespread precipitation with potential for some higher localized swaths of heavier rainfall possibly to around 1.00 inch. Severe weather potential will remain limited given the unfavorable nocturnal timing and generally weak instability. Precipitation tapers off during the late afternoon/early evening hours as the low lifts further off to the northeast. The expected rainfall with extensive cloud cover through peak heating tomorrow will hold high temperatures down several degrees back to around normal values. There will be a decreasing cloud trend into tomorrow night as the low lifts off to the northeast, but dewpoints expected to remain in the low 60s will keep humidity elevated. Surface high pressure begins to drift eastward across the Ohio River Valley allowing for lower level height rises to stretch northward into Michigan under mostly zonal flow from 500 mb and above. This will result in another stretch of warmer weather with high temperatures around 90 degrees on Friday increasing to lower 90s for most of southeast Michigan. Lower level southwest flow around the southeastern US ridge will continue to draw higher moisture into Michigan over the weekend maintaining muggy conditions. Could see a few pop up thunderstorms on Saturday given the degree of moisture an instability when a shortwave skirts across the northern Lakes, but imagine that dry conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon before better jet dynamics provide support for convection with anomalously high dewpoints late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There will be a risk of heat stress over the weekend as well as heat indices rise to mid/upper 90s. Still some uncertainty in regards to convection and timing over the weekend, which could also affect high temperatures. MARINE... A low pressure system advances into the central Great Lakes region tonight and tomorrow, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the associated cold front. Southerly winds will shift to northwesterly with the passage of the frontal boundary tonight, with gusts of around 15 knots possible over the marine areas. Locally higher winds and seas are also possible with any thunderstorm activity that develops, along with heavy rain and lightning. As the low exits the region Thursday night, winds will gradually back to the southwest and high pressure will begin to build into the Ohio Valley. This area of high pressure will persist into the weekend, before another low pressure system moves through the central Great Lakes early on Sunday. HYDROLOGY... Widespread rainfall will move into southeast Michigan tonight through t omorrow morning as a low pressure system tracks along the southern Michigan border. Most areas can expect rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches with some areas focused along and between the I-69 and I- 94 corridors that could see rainfall totals approaching 1.00 inch. A few thunderstorms remain possible and some areas of more organized areas of forcing that could bring localized swaths greater than 1.00 inch. Expect any flooding threat that may arise to be confined to low-lying and poor drainage areas, especially across any urban locations. Basin average precipitation should remain low enough to not pose any river flooding concerns, but small rises on local rivers is possible. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....AA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
525 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020 ...Update for 00Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE TSRA will be the main impact across the region next 6 hours. Temporary IFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites due to TSRA with the highest chances between 00-04Z. Winds variable and outflow driven this evening, with gusts to 50KTS possible. Outside of thunderstorms, prevailing flow will be 280-310 at 15G25KT. Skies SCT-BKN120 with decreasing CIGs to OVC060CB within TS. VFR conditions expected to prevail after 06Z tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Upper high over northern Texas will permit a moist southerly flow across the Borderland tonight, resulting in scattered thunderstorms. The high pressure will build over the area Thursday into the weekend. This will force the much of the moisture out further west. So the best chance of thunderstorms into the weekend will be over the mountains and west of Deming. Areas to the east will still see isolated storms. Temperatures will slowly continuing decreasing with lower triple digit lowland temperatures through Sunday, and then in the upper 90s beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Through Thursday... The UL high is near Wichita Falls per RAP analysis, and this has allowed our temperatures to be less hot as well as allow some moisture to move into the Borderland. This morning`s sounding showed 1.17" of PW, and dewpoints this afternoon are within a few degrees of 50. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon with development initially over the mountains before moving/developing into the lowlands as the afternoon and evening progress. Multiple CAMs suggest showers and thunderstorms may last well into the night as a weak impulse moves out of Mexico. This would be a situation similar to what was seen last night and into this morning. DCAPE values this afternoon look to range from 1400 to 1800 J/kg, which suggests a few storms could have severe caliber winds. The UL high will begin to build back westward tomorrow, which will cause moisture to shove west as well. Thunderstorms will be still be possible tomorrow afternoon, but with less coverage than seen yesterday and today. Mountains and areas west of the divide will have the best chance for any thunderstorms. Highs will also be comparable or slightly warmer than today. && .LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday... Upper high nearly stationary over northern Texas Thursday night and Friday as it continues to build higher heights over the CWA. Both GFS/ECMWF show slight shift in moisture, with main plume concentrated further west. So for most of this entire period, put higher POPs over the mountains and western zones. Models certainly not scouring out moisture in the east-PWs remain around .9 - 1.1" area wide (about seasonally normal), so can`t really remove POPs from any zones. Longer trend Sunday night into first part of next week...upper high and ridge may lift a bit further north, increasing east flow aloft. Inverted trough may pass through Sunday night or Monday, but probably not worth the effort of fashioning grids to this feature this far out. Hence kept POP fields relatively broad brushed. More noticeable trend is in temperatures, where we peaked out Sat/Sun/Mon and will continue slow downward trend, perhaps still in the lower triple digits through about Sunday and then back into the upper 90s to start the week ahead. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over mountains before moving/developing into the lowlands later this afternoon and evening. For areas that don`t see rainfall, RH recovery to near 50 percent is expected across most lowland locations with values up to around 90 percent in the mountains. Hot but seasonal temperatures tomorrow as well as the import of drier air into areas east of the divide will cause min RH values to fall to near or just below critical thresholds for most lowland locations. Thunderstorms will be possible again for tomorrow but with lesser coverage expected than today, initially favoring mountains before moving/developing into the lowlands in the evening. Winds will be light for all areas except where influenced by gusty outflow winds. Friday will feature similar conditions to Thursday. Vent rates will be range from very good to excellent on Thursday then fair to very good on Friday. Conditions will remain status quo into the weekend as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 103 77 101 / 30 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 72 97 / 30 0 0 0 Las Cruces 71 100 72 99 / 30 20 20 0 Alamogordo 71 104 73 101 / 40 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 52 79 53 75 / 30 40 20 40 Truth or Consequences 72 100 73 98 / 40 30 30 10 Silver City 66 93 66 91 / 20 30 30 20 Deming 69 102 70 99 / 30 20 20 0 Lordsburg 69 100 71 97 / 20 30 30 0 West El Paso Metro 76 104 77 101 / 30 10 10 0 Dell City 69 104 73 102 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 105 76 102 / 30 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 98 73 95 / 30 10 10 0 Fabens 74 103 75 102 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 72 102 74 100 / 30 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 102 75 99 / 30 10 20 0 Jornada Range 71 101 71 99 / 40 20 20 0 Hatch 71 103 72 100 / 30 20 20 0 Columbus 72 102 73 99 / 20 10 10 0 Orogrande 73 103 75 100 / 30 10 10 0 Mayhill 57 90 60 86 / 30 40 10 30 Mescalero 56 89 59 86 / 40 40 20 40 Timberon 54 87 59 84 / 30 30 10 20 Winston 57 92 62 90 / 30 40 20 30 Hillsboro 65 100 68 98 / 30 30 20 20 Spaceport 69 100 70 98 / 30 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 58 93 58 91 / 20 40 20 40 Hurley 64 97 66 95 / 20 30 30 20 Cliff 59 99 65 97 / 20 40 20 20 Mule Creek 66 95 65 95 / 20 40 30 10 Faywood 66 98 67 96 / 30 30 20 20 Animas 69 100 71 98 / 30 30 30 0 Hachita 66 100 69 97 / 30 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 68 99 70 97 / 40 40 40 20 Cloverdale 66 94 67 91 / 30 50 50 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 34/17/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
952 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will linger over the Southeast through the end of the week. Hot and humid conditions will continue along with the threat of isolated thunderstorms. Storm coverage will increase early next week, as ridging aloft starts to weaken. && .UPDATE/... Convection hasn`t ended but it has vacated the forecast area and lift sources are fading. Weak MCS energy will drift from Britton Neck to Hannah to Olanta through evening, and a pop up shower may bubble in this corridor the next couple of hours, otherwise a fair overnight appear on tap, with several shallow banks of mist likely to form late over interior zones. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CU fields indicating that the HRRR idea of inland/NC zones being the areas most likely to see shower/thunderstorm coverage though likely not quite with the gusto implied by the model this evening. Have also raised POPs into the low end chance range over inland SC zones in deference to the WRF which shows a surface-based trough lift northward into the region. Tonight will bring the normal diurnal waning of convection-likely down to nothing. Sky cover overnight will hinge a bit on convective coverage today as it will likely be confined to just some mid to high level debris clouds. PW values fall just enough on Thursday that most guidance is not showing much in the way of meaningful rain chances. This isn`t terribly common in July so have dotted the seabreeze boundary with some 20 POPs. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high off the New England coast Fri morning will sink south, ending up in the typical Bermuda High location Sat. Aloft an elongated mid-level ridge over much of the southern CONUS will weaken slightly. The weakening of the ridge Sat and development of deep southerly flow will open the door for isolated afternoon and evening convection, especially along the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough. Along the coast onshore flow and the sea breeze will keep highs near climo while inland areas end up running a little above climo. Lows Fri and Sat night will run a couple degrees above climo. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Bermuda High and weakening, but persistent mid-level ridge will remain in place into the middle of next week. This is a pretty standard pattern for the summer in the Southeast. Temperatures will be near to slightly above climo with daily rounds of afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough. - Highs around 90 near the coast and in the mid 90s inland - Lows in the lower 70s - Scattered afternoon storms each day && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Outside of isolated TSTMs, and mist between 8z-11z, full VFR. Isolated convection very early TAF cycle will dwindle, refire again but only isolated at most, Thursday afternoon. Overall light wind, becoming SE 6-11 knots Thursday afternoon. TSTMs if any, will remain avoidable and widely separated this TAF cycle. Extended Outlook...Convection will increase into the weekend as the ridge aloft weakens, this will lead to higher chances of brief MVFR/IFR, induced by nearby storms. && .MARINE... Rather than the normal Bermuda High often in place this time of year the wind-maker will be high pressure over the New England coast through Thursday night. Flow around this anticyclone will keep wind out of the east locally at speeds that will be hard pressed to exceed 10 knots. The small wind waves paired with a small ESE swell will keep seas around 2 to occasionally 3 ft. High pressure off the New England coast Fri morning will sink south, near Bermuda Sat. The high will linger off the coast into next week, ensuring continued light south to southwest flow. Gradient remains weak with speeds around 10 kt. Development of afternoon sea breeze leads to a slight increase in onshore flow near the coast each day. Seas 2 to 3 ft through Mon, a mix of weak wind wave and weak swell. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJC NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...8 MARINE...MBB