Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/10/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 749 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Isolated strong to severe storms are continuing across the northeast plains of Colorado this evening with large hail. Main concern is further development further west over the northern Front Range with weakening intersecting boundaries expected between 8 and 9 pm. Low level moisture has increased over much of the area with dewpoints well into the 50s across the urban corridor. Latest HRRR has developing cells over Eastern Boulder and Southwest Weld counties which may track just north and east of Denver through midnight if this comes true. Already seeing some building towers looking outside our windows here in Boulder. Will add some pops for thunderstorms further west for the rest of the evening with the potential for a strong to severe storm. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Main focus for late this afternoon and evening will continue to be the potential for severe thunderstorms. The frontal boundary continues to shift more westward than the models initially had it, with dewpoints over northeast Weld County in the low 60s early this afternoon. Latest HRRR has initiated the developing thunderstorms a little further west, over northwest Weld County by early this evening. Will adjust the pops accordingly. MLCAPES around 1700 j/kg at that time, with favorable shear as well. Best window in the 00-03z period this evening. Diminishing pops by late evening, but could see some patchy fog over the northeast plains late tonight. For Friday, dry and stable with temperatures back near 100. Fire danger will be elevated with dry fuels, single digit rh`s and gusty winds primarily in the high mountain valleys, and along the northern border areas. Reference the fire weather discussion below. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Through the weekend, hot weather will continue as the strong upper level ridge remains in place over the southwestern United States. 700 mb temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper teens Celcius through the weekend, implying surface temperatures on the plains well into the 90s and approaching 100. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend, where even Denver has a shot at the 100 degree mark. Temperatures at the mid-levels will be so warm that the airmass will remain capped, and convective shower development will be minimal. Skies should remain sunny both days except for some fair weather cumulus that develops over the mountains each afternoon. The warm temperatures will lead to afternoon humidities dropping into the teens, but pressure gradients should remain weak, leading to only light winds. Although Fire Danger levels will be high, the threat of dangerous fire growth will be limited by the light winds. From Sunday night through next week, the medium range models begin moving sub-tropical moisture into the state from the southwest. The center of the upper level ridge is also forecast to progress eastward to a position over the southeast United States. This will allow for more southerly flow aloft which will contain the increasing moisture levels. Temperatures will remain very warm, but afternoons will begin seeing more thunderstorm activity develop. For the time being the forecasts will mention a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. Areas that receive precipitation will see some cooling, but overall the airmass over the state will remain warm. which will keep the streak of 90 degree days on the plains going. As the week progresses, we will need to keep an eye out for locally heavy rain from the storms that begin developing. All in all, a pretty typical summerlike pattern for Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 749 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm forming over the terminals through 05z with intersecting boundaries and have also seen an increase in low level moisture. Storms should end after midnight with gradual clearing skies. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Best combination of gusty winds, low rh and dry fuels will be in North, Middle and South Parks, the northern Front Range Foothills and Cheyenne Ridge Friday afternoon. Consequently, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas. This could be expanded if winds in the other zones pick up. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ211- 213>215-238-242. && $$ UPDATE...Entrekin SHORT TERM...Cooper LONG TERM...Dankers AVIATION...Entrekin FIRE WEATHER...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 After last night`s MCS moved through central and southeast Kansas we are continuing to see the effects with east to southeast winds and scattered cloud cover in northern Kansas. This environment will play a big factor on if we get any convection late tonight into early tomorrow morning in the CWA. The latest trends with the short term models are showing a shortwave moving through eastern Colorado and western Nebraska which will develop convection late this afternoon into tonight. The main question is if the stable environment from the overnight MCS will keep convection at bay across central and southwest Kansas late tonight. Most 12Z model trends are hinting at the convection in Nebraska falling apart well north of the CWA by late tonight and only a small chance of storms trying to develop along a frontal boundary in central Kansas after midnight tonight. Overall it looks like the cap will hold for most of the area today into tonight so the chances of storms look 20% or less for much of the area. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s. Friday is showing a surface low in the Texas panhandle and surface winds generally in an easterly direction throughout the day. There looks to be some morning cloud cover as well (if storms don`t form certainly cloud cover is possible along the frontal boundary around the I-70 corridor). 850 mb temps at around 21-23 (C) for most of the CWA would suggest a second straight day of temperatures being more in the low to mid 90s range for highs. Storm chances during the day on Friday look to be fairly low. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 West to northwest flow aloft continues throughout the weekend. On Saturday the main challenge will be how quickly and far south the cold front moves through the area with temperatures likely being cooler in our northern counties and the possibility of some compressional heating in the afternoon getting temperatures over 100 for counties along the Oklahoma border. Kept storm chances out with the frontal passage at this point as it appears there won`t be much forcing aloft. Sunday with a surface high to the east the winds in the CWA will switch to the southeast allowing moisture to come in by late afternoon and the early evening. A shortwave will come in from Colorado by the evening and as a result some evening-overnight storms will be possible. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s. Early next week the main focus will be on the heat and how high temperatures will go for both Monday and Tuesday. The last run of models was suggesting 104-107 highs on Tuesday. I tend to agree more with the 12Z run of the Euro where with the westerlies close enough around the central plains the core of the hottest air will likely stay more in the Texas panhandle. I still think our far southwest counties could make a run at highs at 100-105 but elsewhere I dropped afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday should bring slightly cooler temps with a weak cold front and northeast winds coming into the CWA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 High confidence that very moist easterly upslope boundary layer flow will generate widespread MVFR stratus cigs at all airports tonight. Some IFR is possible at times. Expect stratus to begin filling in after 06z Fri, with the most widespread stratus in the 12-15z Fri time frame. Concensus of short term models agrees on the stratus, as well as modest surface visibility reductions in BR (2-4 sm) 09-12z Fri. Expect E/NE wind components to continue all night, averaging 10-15 kts. Convection is expected to be limited this TAF period, with HRRR suggesting some elevated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of HYS 06-11z Fri. Included a VCTS/CB mention for this in the HYS TAF, otherwise the TAFs are dry. Stratus will take its time breaking up Friday morning (especially at HYS) with light moist E/SE winds continuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 67 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 10 GCK 69 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10 EHA 69 98 69 100 / 10 10 0 10 LBL 68 98 70 100 / 10 10 0 0 HYS 67 91 71 93 / 30 10 10 10 P28 68 96 75 101 / 20 10 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
608 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE... SCT/BKN120CU increasing in coverage across the entire area, diminishing after 02Z. Isolated BKN100CB also developing with weak/moderate thunderstorms, mainly over the Black Range and southern Sacramento Mtns. These storms will drift southeast at around 10 mph-out over the foothills but then likely dissipating next 2-3 hours. Gusty winds of 25-35kts possible with these storms. Elsewhere, a few BKN090CB -TSRA possible over the higher terrain of the NM Bootheel until around 03Z. These storms are moving northwest at around 10 mph. Gusty winds of 30-40kts possible with these storms. Non-thunderstorm winds should remain at or below 10kts. && Hefner .PREV DISCUSSION...1247 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020... .SYNOPSIS... The ongoing heat wave across the region will continue for several more days, lasting through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal for most areas as conditions are expected to remain dry. Limited moisture will arrive early next week which will eventually cool temperatures a few degrees and help generate a few thunderstorms by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow The forecast is almost identical to yesterdays. A large upper level ridge continues to spin over southern NM. This evening, recycled moisture still lingers around the area. Some light CU are sprouting up in the higher elevations. HRRR does grow the sprouting CU into towering CU and maybe some TS this evening for the Gila, however confidence is low due to the area drying out even more today. Little to no rain chances for the area Friday afternoon and evening. Our high temperatures this evening and tomorrow will reach 10 - 15 degrees above normal, flirting with records. A heat advisory is currently out for the lowlands through the short term period. High temperatures rose 2 - 3 degrees warmer than forecasted yesterday, so with the higher forecasted temperatures today and Friday we could see the higher elevation zones (areas sandwiched between 6,500ft and 7,500ft) reach advisory level (above 100 degrees) in some areas. Remember that heat is the silent killer. People in the sensitive group (older and young people) should not be outside for a prolonged period of time. Stay hydrated, and remember to always check you back seat. && .LONG TERM... Our unusually strong upper high will remain centered directly over New Mexico as it continues to strengthen into the upcoming weekend. Models still have 500mb heights peaking at around 6000 meters by Saturday afternoon. As such, Saturday still looks to be the hottest day area wide. However temperatures will consistently stay 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the weekend and even into early next week. Currently heat advisories cover all lowland zones through Saturday morning, but will most likely be extended eventually to include the upcoming weekend as well. In general the upper circulation will continue to divert any incoming moisture to our west over Arizona through Saturday. Thus storm chances look to remain nil locally for several additional days. By Sunday models hint at some spill over moisture reaching our northern zones. Therefore a slight mention of precipitation has been added to the higher elevations for both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Meanwhile as the ridge slowly shifts eastward early next week, moisture will eventually track into our western and central zones Tuesday and Wednesday. The end result will be a minor drop in daytime temps with a general uptick in convective activity for the area. && .AVIATION...A slight chance for a few weak thunderstorms in the higher terrain, which are not expected to impact any TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail in most areas. Light northerly winds will become more variable by the late afternoon and early evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and relatively dry conditions are expected to persist through early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. There will be a slight chance of a (mostly dry) thunderstorm over the Black Range, Sacramento Mountains, and/or the NM Bootheel later this afternoon, but any storms will be short-lived and limited to the higher terrain. Max Haines Indices of 5 and 6 during the days will last through the weekend. Minimum RH values will drop into the 8 to 15 percent range through the weekend, with light winds prevailing. The subtropical ridge looks to shift to the east Tuesday, tapping into some moisture along the AZ/NM border near the NM Bootheel. This moisture could make it up to the Gila, giving the western areas rain and TS chances early to mid week next week. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 108 80 108 / 0 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 74 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 75 105 74 105 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 74 105 75 106 / 0 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 56 82 58 84 / 0 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 76 104 75 106 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 71 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 73 106 72 107 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 79 106 81 108 / 0 20 0 0 Dell City 72 107 73 107 / 0 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 108 77 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 74 100 76 101 / 0 20 0 0 Fabens 77 107 80 107 / 0 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 76 105 76 106 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 105 80 106 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 74 105 74 105 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 76 106 73 107 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 79 106 75 107 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 76 105 76 106 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 65 94 64 95 / 0 20 0 0 Mescalero 62 94 62 94 / 0 20 0 0 Timberon 58 90 60 91 / 0 20 0 0 Winston 64 97 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 73 104 70 105 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 71 104 72 105 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 98 63 100 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 71 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 103 63 106 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 68 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 71 105 71 106 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 70 105 69 106 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 103 70 104 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 64 98 68 99 / 20 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ404>407-409>413-417. TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418>424. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Showers and storms continue to push across central Illinois tonight, with storms beginning to slowly diminish. Locations west of the Illinois River Valley will see drying conditions overnight, with locations across eastern Illinois still awaiting the arrival of rainfall. A slightly cooler end to the week, and start to the weekend will arrive across the Midwest behind this system. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Made some short term edits, especially to the PoPs to account for the current location of showers and storms. Expecting the activity to continue pushing eastward through the overnight. With outflow advancing well ahead of the system, on radar, activity should be decreasing. With storms out of the Watch area, went ahead and canceled the Watch box early. Slightly cooler temps are still expected to arrive Friday and linger into the weekend. As well as a change and increase in winds, from the northwest heading through the overnight into Friday. Had to edit temps slightly for tonight, due to the arrival of cooler conditions already behind fropa. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Much of the southwest half of the CWA has been weakly capped this afternoon. The exception is a narrow corridor currently near the I-57 corridor. Isolated instability showers and storms will persist over eastern IL the next few hours. Additional isolated storms possible near/north of I-74 where little capping is evident based on visible satellite imagery. The main weather concern is severe convective potential this evening, as a shortwave and associated weak low and front currently over east central IA, track east across IL. The atmosphere ahead of this system will feature ample instability with MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear while initially weak, will increase to 25-30 kt with the approach of the upper wave. This should be sufficient for organized storms/clusters to track east/southeast out of Iowa and across primarily the northern half of the CWA this evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat with hail secondary, mainly early in the strongest updrafts due to high wet bulb zero heights. Tornado threat still looks low and based on storm scale/mesoscale effects to locally increased low level shear. As instability decreases and storms outrun the better shear, a weakening trend should be noted towards midnight as storms track into eastern IL. Behind the front for late tonight and Friday, a period of brisk (for mid- summer) west/northwest winds will overspread the area as the gradient briefly tightens ahead of 1015 mb high pressure building towards MO. Some 25 mph gusts are possible by late Friday morning and into the afternoon. This "cold air" advection should limit highs to the upper 80s, though with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s conditions will still be humid. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 The next chance for storms is tied to a shortwave dropping southeast across the area Saturday night. While some convection could develop Saturday afternoon, highest (chance) pops are carried for Saturday night. Lingering storms to exit the area Sunday morning, but the bulk of the day to be dry. Again a decent surface pressure gradient behind this system for a period of gustier northwest winds Sunday. 850 mb temps drop into the lower teens C, should result in seasonable temperatures for Sunday and Monday. The main concern for much of the week is a large heat dome currently building over the southwest and south central U.S. Early next week a longwave trof developing out west will force this strong upper ridge east/northeast towards the mid-Mississippi River Valley. There is still some uncertainty in how far north this ridge can build, as guidance shows a series of shortwaves tracking across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, in a classic ring of fire pattern. Current guidance suggests this activity will stay north of the area, resulting in mainly dry but hot and humid conditions. Widespread low to mid 90s highs expected for Tue-Thu, with heat indices near heat index criteria (105 F) for Wed/Thu. Slight to low chance pops primarily over the northern CWA through the extended, closer to the stronger westerlies over the upper Midwest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 739 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Line of convection is getting started to the west and should move toward PIA and BMI this evening. With storms moving east-northeast think PIA and BMI could get missed, though HRRR does still show convection reaching these sites. So will just have VCTS for now for couple of hours this evening until can get a better handle on timing and if it will be on-station. Have also included SPI/DEC/CMI with VCTS for couple of hours as well. Cigs should remain VFR through the period, even with TS over/near stations. Then broken clouds for several hours after precip moves out at all sites. Tomorrow should be scattered clouds at all sites with breezy winds out of the northwest. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Baker SYNOPSIS...Baker SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...25 AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Left over mesoscale complex from Wednesday night split into two main areas wit hone moving across the Midwest and the other diving southeast across eastern KS/OK. Upper low located over southern MB also moving northeast while next upper low continues to move onshore in southern BC. Otherwise a fairly typical summertime pattern has set up across the southern U.S. leaving western and north central NE in zonal flow aloft. Several embedded PV anomalies within the zonal flow across the central Rockies as noted subtly in water vapor imagery. Also seen in satellite imagery is what left of an undular bore that moved quickly southwest through the area early this morning, located across the Panhandle into southwest NE. Stable air behind this feature noted as well. Numerous other boundaries have been seen on radar though not associated with cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Tonight...subtle short wave troughs embedded within the weak zonal flow aloft will provide larger scale lift across the High Plains this afternoon and evening as easterly upslope flow remains in place at the surface. The larger scale lift is maximized by late evening as the nocturnal LLJ get organized across the Panhandle providing isentropic lift co-located with best low level moisture. Models differ on how this gets resolved with respect to convective initiation or in some case none at all. With all of the left over boundaries from last nights convection, lack of large scale lift during peak heating will likely mean convective initiation will be relegated to terrain features such as the Laramie range again as well as possibly the Pine ridge area of northwest NE. This line of thought agrees fairly well with current solutions offered by the HRRR and to some degree several other CAM ensemble members. However, pattern recognition of a post-frontal regime during convective season would suggest terrain-based initiation west of the area should track southeastward toward higher low level moisture and LLJ which would primarily affect the eastern Panhandle and far southwest NE. So confidence in the convective evolution is only moderate at best. Any storm in this environment will be in an area of decent deep layer shear and moderate CAPE, especially in the Panhandle. This does coincide with the SPC slight risk area and their line of thought. Overnight will see the LLJ veering to southerly and the low level moist axis expanding further into southwest NE. this scenario under the larger scale slowly rising heights may favor stratus and/or fog. See further discussion in the aviation section. For Friday...weak upper height rises continue across the Great Basin and southern Rockies while the next upper low moves across the northern Rockies. This promotes upper level jet enhancement leading to better large scale lift across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas by late afternoon. Meanwhile the aforementioned low level moisture axis shifts/expands eastward as deeper mixing occurs further west in the drier air and better insolation. This will mix the dryline eastward as well which should place the dryline boundary across the western Sandhills into north central NE by late afternoon. East of this feature will lie a very unstable environment, however capped to deep vertical mixing due to a strong warm, subsidence layer aloft. Deep layer shear would also be favorable in this area, however larger scale models are consistent in not developing convection along this boundary due to this existing cap and the lack of large scale lift to remove the cap. However, a few CAM members do develop convection leading to uncertainty in forecast evolution. In general, better large scale lift and associated mesoscale focus boundaries will exist across the Dakotas to promote vigorous convection by late afternoon. Models also fairly consistent in developing one or two large convection complexes which will track southeast across the Dakotas and into northeast NE overnight. Northeastern portion of the forecast area will be in the vicinity of this track so slight risk warranted there. POPs will be included for areas along and east of the dryline boundary, but confidence is low at this point. Temperatures overnight will be near climatological norms, while highs will rise again to above averages for this time of year for Friday. Winds a little stronger out of the south to southwest during the day and temps may be slow to climb early due to cloud cover. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 For the weekend...upper level ridging builds across the southwestern United States through the weekend as the previously mentioned expansive upper low across BC moves eastward across southern Canada. Though the heights build there will still be opportunities for thunderstorm development especially when originating along the higher terrain further west. Coverage looks scattered at best. For Monday and beyond...Great Basin ridging gets flattened as the upper low continues to move across southern Canada and the northern portion of the U.S. This will set the stage for better large scale lifting as faster zonal flow develop across the area. This should lead to better confidence in development as well as better coverage Monday through Wednesday. Temps will likely remain at or slightly above average for this time of year in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the south, likely slightly less than average in the north. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 VFR is generally expected across western and north central Nebraska tonight and Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening (00z-05z) affecting areas along and west of highway 61. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across ncntl Nebraska Friday afternoon (21z-00z). Otherwise, VFR will prevail across the region. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte LONG TERM...Stoppkotte AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
720 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Only a couple of showers are showing up on radar this hour, which is less activity than we`ve seen at this time the past several evenings. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows the same unstable environment in place, although not entirely saturated. The flow at the surface and aloft is quite diffuse with no definable features over Middle Tennessee and the wind field lacks support. So we`ve been limited to sparse, heat-driven convection this afternoon. The HRRR shows only a stray shower or two going forward, so we`ll cut POP`s out of the overnight forecast. Look for more radiation fog as we get into the early morning. Otherwise, no forecast changes are planned for now. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. VCTS is still possible at CSV for a few hours this evening, but otherwise VFR conditions and no precip are expected at airports tonight. Fog is anticipated to bring MVFR visibility to CKV/CSV overnight. Tomorrow remains uncertain as far as coverage of SHRA/TSRA, but most confident on VCTS impacting CSV with VCSH elsewhere. Light southwest winds tonight will increase and become northwest on Friday. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......08 AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
538 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hi-res guidance has struggled with over-achieving cold pool from early morning convection. Resultant differential mixing zone has become diffuse this afternoon as diabatic surface heating has modified the cool side. Still, not significant heating on the cool side for us to reach Heat Advisory criteria, thus the start time for northern Oklahoma was delayed until tomorrow in an earlier update. Hot temperatures and deeper mixing in far western Oklahoma may allow for a few isolated storms to form late this afternoon through early evening, but this seems quite conditional. Cumulus so far is underwhelming there, and midlevel temperatures are quite warm. Low- level water vapor channel shows plume of warm/subsidence overspreading the area, commensurate with midlevel height rises. The cumulus development in north-central Oklahoma is flat/laminar and unlikely to grow vertically/convect given 1) less-than-expected heating from residual modifying cold pool, and 2) warm midlevel temperatures contributing to significant CIN. So aside from any isolated pseudo high-based (in relative terms) convection that can develop later today in western Oklahoma later today, the only other opportunities for storms appears to be 1) in our far northeast counties around Ponca City where weak midlevel convection could develop or move in, 2) within enhanced cumulus along the differential mixing boundary from near Norman southeastward toward Atoka where heating has been substantial and deeper/richer moisture is present (80F dew point at Lane mesonet as I write this). Within the latter concern area, effective shear of around 30 knot owing to modest northwesterly flow and backed low-level flow could support at least some storm organization and possibly transient supercell characteristics. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with any storms that can initiate. The best chance will be further east, since the further west you go the warmer midlevel temperatures are. Despite struggles earlier, hi-res models should be able to handle tonight`s mechanisms for storms a little better. Midlevel clouds/moisture seen in satellite now oriented from central Kansas through southeast Kansas should focus elevated thunderstorm development later this evening or tonight. Although this convection may not be quite as robust or capable of producing such a dramatic cold pool, some consolidation/organization is expected, and storms in at least a weakened state should propagate into north-central Oklahoma and eventually toward the I-40 corridor late in the night or early Friday morning. BRB && .UPDATE... Issued at 518 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Hot/deeply mixed environment over the Texas Panhandle is supporting some high-based generally weak convection there. Some of this may drift into our western counties into early evening with a gusty wind threat. Of potentially greater concern is an area of moisture convergence centered near Taloga. Modified observed soundings for current conditions suggest substantial convective inhibition exists, also shown well in RAP forecast soundings. Further confirming warm mid levels and capping is a plume of particularly dry/subsident air mass advecting eastward across this area as seen in 7.3 low-level water vapor. Magnitude of convergence may be enough for at least some convective attempts, that may be difficult to sustain. If a storm can form there is sufficient northwesterly flow aloft opposing southeasterly flow at the surface for storm tilt/organization (30-40 knots effective shear), and severe wind and hail would occur. This still seems like a low probability at this time. Further southeast along the differential mixing boundary/remnant outflow toward Pauls Valley/Ada/Atoka, Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB indicates perhaps a tad more ice within the more vertically- developed cumulus, but the character/texture still seems to show capping may suppress CI altogether. We`ll continue to watch that area for possible isolated development, but confidence isn`t high. To the north of this differential mixing zone, a stable cloud pattern gives confidence that surface-based convection will not occur. See earlier sections for details on potential for midlevel/elevated convection later tonight across the north. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 452 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Remnant convection and outflow will likely limit temperatures across northern Oklahoma more than originally thought, and thus we have delayed the start time of the Heat Advisory until Saturday. Even then, trends in model guidance suggests a cold front may intrude deeper into Oklahoma than earlier thought. Ensemble mean has core of mid-upper high to our west a little weaker and less anomalous than before, and influence of central/northern Plains shortwave trough and associated surface features a little further southwest. Saturday afternoon, an isolated storm is possible near this boundary, but midlevel temperatures and CIN is still substantial so the threat is conditional. Deep mixing and hot temperatures across the west (south of aforementioned boundary) could lead to isolated high-based convection, too. We may need to trend toward a broader area of at least low probabilities if mid level moisture and subtle northwest-southeast baroclinic zone can result in some convection Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, still above normal temperatures into early next week with hot temperatures contributing to low RH and possibly elevated fire weather conditions in the west, particularly Monday onward. BRB && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 We may see some thunderstorms again Friday morning in north central Oklahoma near KPNC, but precipitation chances remain relatively low elsewhere. The thunderstorms developing in the southeast Texas panhandle will likely dissipate before moving toward KCSM or KLAW. Apart from any thunderstorms that may develop or move into the area, VFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 97 77 102 / 20 20 10 20 Hobart OK 77 102 78 108 / 10 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 77 101 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 102 76 104 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 74 93 78 98 / 50 30 10 20 Durant OK 75 95 76 100 / 10 10 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008- 011>013-017>020-026. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ023>025-027>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Aviation section updated. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Radar has been much quieter so far this afternoon compared to recent days. Isolated showers have struggled to get going with only a few lightning strikes noted so far. Our region appears to reside in between zones of better moisture and lift to our east and southwest. Recent runs of the HRRR have hinted at a little more activity developing into portions of southeast Missouri by 22-00z. With 25-30 knots of bulk shear working into the Ozark Foothills, can`t rule out a strong thunderstorm if this occurred. Shortwave energy will pass by to our north tonight dragging a cold front through our region. Several models indicate a dry passage for our entire cwa, but given some signal for a little convection to sneak into the north, have decided to keep in small PoPs for closer to I-64. This may linger into the early/mid morning hours in our far east. The bulk of Friday appears dry now, with drier air working into the region on northwest winds behind the frontal passage. Right now not anticipating diurnal convection developing during the afternoon. Dewpoints likely will drop into the upper 60s to around 70 by afternoon, and may be localized even lower depending on the degree of mixing. Temperatures will be a touch cooler east of the Mississippi River, but still topping out around 90. Saturday also looks dry for much of the area, however a potential MCS provides some uncertainty. The consensus is for this MCS to dive southeastward across Missouri and into Arkansas, possibly clipping our 4 western counties in the Ozark Foothills. However, the Canadian takes it right over the heart of the cwa during the afternoon. For now will disregard the Canadian and agree with the further southwest track. The potential would exist for a limited risk for severe thunderstorms with any organized complex, which right now is highest to the west and south of our area. Humidity levels will remain somewhat lower on Saturday, with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70. Siding with the drier solution results in afternoon temperatures likely reaching into the lower 90s again. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 The start of the long term will feature an upper level trough in the eastern United States with a ridge across the western half of the country. The Quad State region will see northwesterly flow aloft. Models agree on a shortwave near the Eastern Great Lakes and a shortwave near Wisconsin but differ on the intensity of the features. The GFS and Canadian models develop the Wisconsin shortwave to be a significant rainmaker for the Great Lakes, while the ECMWF is little impressed. The models agree on a cold front passing through the Quad State on Sunday. Precise timing and strength vary so PoPs are kept at chance levels for Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. However, precipitation duration is likely to be on the order of a few hours during that span. Some thunderstorms are possible with this system, more likely during the heat of the day Sunday. Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will decrease for the start of the workweek. This relief will be short-lived while a high pressure center will move into the Quad State Monday as the ridge shifts eastward. Once the high shifts to the east coast southerly flow returns Tuesday which will send temperatures rising. By midweek, highs will reach the mid 90s with heat index values 100-105 likely. && .AVIATION... Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Generally VFR through Friday. Isolated convection possible tonight. SSW winds around 4 to 8 kts will become W tonight, then NW toward morning and continue through the day Friday, occasional gusts 15 to 20 kts midday through late afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Currently...Easterly surface flow today has done what was anticipated and has kept high temps just below the century mark. Radar was showing a boundary pushing west towards the mts and just moving into El Paso and Pueblo Counties as of 245 pm. Isolated convection was igniting in Lincoln County, but so far nothing has initiated in the cwa. In general, the relatively flat ridge of high pressure over the desert southwest will remain in place over the next 24 hrs, with an upper trough crossing Canada and the northern Rockies Fri aftn and eve. Tonight...Surface winds are forecast to remain easterly through the night, with llvl moisture steadily pushing back to the west towards the I-25 corridor. Latest HRRR indicates that the convection currently in Lincoln County will remain north of the forecast area, with just a hit of a shower perhaps towards morning in the Pikes Peak Region as a result of the constant easterly push. Ongoing forecast grids indicate isolated chances over the far eastern plains this eve, then isolated convection for the Pikes Peak Region early tomorrow morning. In addition, SPC guidance paints a Marginal area for strong to severe storms over Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and a portion of Baca County tonight, so cannot argue the isolated possibility. Otherwise, low clouds are forecast to push into the eastern plains late tonight, reaching the I-25 corridor around the midnight time frame and remaining into the morning. Plan on overnight lows in the upper 30s to near 50F for the high valleys, and in the 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Tomorrow...The lower levels should start mixing out from west to east tomorrow morning between 8 and 10 am, with low clouds dissipating during the late morning. Hot and dry conditions are on tap for tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. -Moore .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Friday night- Saturday...A weak front moves over the plains late Friday night into Saturday which will keep temperatures down a few degrees, but highs are still expected in the 90s. Stuck again with persistence out west where winds aloft will continue to keep temps warm. The only significant variation between models was the timing on the influx of moist air in the morning. POPs are still pretty low, even with some moisture in the area it is probable that any falling precip would not reach the ground as any isolated storms that managed to form would be very high based. Saturday night-Sunday night...Models continue to indicate embedded energy topping the upper ridge across the Northern Rockies through the day Saturday which continues out across Northern High Plains Saturday night, and sends another weak backdoor front across the eastern Plains of Colorado late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Latest models are also indicating increased mid and upper level moisture rotating around the upper high across the southern Rockies and into southern portions of Colorado through the day on Sunday. With that said, while can`t rule out an isolated storm across the area Saturday evening, it looks like Sunday afternoon and evening will have better chances for storms, especially across the southeastern mountains and immediate adjacent plains. Convection on both days continues to be mainly high based, producing gusty outflow winds with little measurable rainfall. Temperatures on Sunday still look to be warm, with highs mainly in the 90s to around the century mark across the plains, and mainly in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Monday-Tuesday...Increasing westerly flow is progged through early next week, as more eastern Pacific energy translates across the Intermountain West on Monday and across the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. This will allow for a decrease in available moisture with lee troughing and deep mixing owing to increased fire danger across the area, especially on Tuesday. There looks to be enough residual moisture to support isolated high based storms for areas over and near the higher terrain on Monday, with models differing on the amount of available moisture to work with on Tuesday. Latest NBM pops leaning towards the drier side, though continues to give isolated pops over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday. Still looks to be hot Monday and Tuesday with highs of 95 to 105 across the plains and in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. Wednesday-Thursday...Models continue to indicate another backdoor cold front pushing across the eastern Plains Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures expected across eastern Colorado on Wednesday. Models do differ on the amount of available moisture, with the GFS tapping into some subtropical moisture pushing across the Rockies from the Desert SW on Wednesday. The latest EC is much drier for Wednesday, though does also indicate the potential for some subtropical moisture oozing into the Rockies on Thursday underneath the persistent upper high. With that said, stayed with current blended model pops, which keeps mainly isolated afternoon and evening storms in place through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Updated AFD to include mention of VCTS into the COS and PUB tafs, right around the midnight time frame through early Friday morning. Increasing moisture/instability and focus along parts of the I-25 corridor could support at least some isolated storms for a few hour window tonight. Once again, have included VCTS, but will continue to monitor trends to possibly include a tempo or prevailing group with thunder. VFR conditions and mostly light winds are expected at KALS over the forecast period. KCOS and KPUB will have VFR conditions and slightly stronger winds into early evening. Overnight a low stratus deck is expected to form, although confidence between the models is generally low when it comes to timing. CIGS will lower to around 1k feet by about 6-8z for both sites, so MVFR and IFR conditions are possible during this time. The clouds are currently expected to dissipate by tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/MW AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO/RODRIGUEZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 ...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 As of 3 PM, a complex of showers and thunderstorms had largely cleared south-central Missouri. A few showers and thunderstorms have persisted across southeastern Kansas in an area of 850 mb convergence. Temperatures this afternoon varied considerably across the Ozarks due to left over mid and high clouds. Areas up towards Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla are up around 90 while temperatures around Branson were only in the lower 70s. As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, a few thunderstorms will remain possible across the eastern Ozarks as the atmosphere remains relatively uncapped. Elevated storms will also remain possible across southeastern Kansas, although coverage should tend to diminish as that low-level jet weakens. Once we get to late this evening and the overnight period, there is a wide variety of model solutions that generally fall into three camps: 1) Dry conditions prevail with thunderstorm potential remaining over the northern and central Plains. 2) Scattered elevated storms re-fire across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri as that low-level jet re-strengthens and veers towards the region. 3) Numerous elevated storms fire across southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma with an MCS developing and tracking southeast (possibly clipping southwest Missouri). At this point, we are leaning towards the second scenario with at least some loose support from the CAMs. The last few runs of the RAP also support the second scenario. It should be noted that earlier versions of the RAP favored the MCS scenario. We may then see some leftover activity Friday morning, however it appears that many locations will remain dry throughout the day as we experience upper level height rises. There will be some low- level convergence over far southwestern Missouri, thus that area will have to be watched for isolated convective potential. Despite the potential for a few storms, models do not show too much spread for highs on Friday. We therefore stuck close to the 50th percentile with most areas warming into the upper 80s or lower 90s. The warmest readings will be over far southwest Missouri and southeastern Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Models then signal more MCS potential from Friday night into Saturday, however timing and location remain unclear. High temperatures on Saturday are also a tough call and may vary a decent amount as you go from southwest to northeast across the Ozarks. NBM numbers paint upper 90s for Joplin and Anderson with upper 80s to around 90 for the eastern Ozarks. Heat headlines will be in play for Saturday along the I-49 corridor if these highs pan out. Thunderstorm potential is then there once again from Saturday night into Sunday as short wave energy drives a weak front through the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler behind that front with highs ranging from the middle 80s to lower 90s. Long wave charts then continue to support an upper level ridge building over much of the central and eastern U.S. as we get into the middle and latter portions of next week. NBM probabilities and CIPS analogs all support dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 90s look likely with the 100 degree mark potentially within reach in some areas. Heat headlines will once again be in play, especially with several consecutive days of hot temperatures expected. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Expect VFR conditions to continue through tonight with an area of high level clouds present across portions of southwest Missouri this evening. By tomorrow morning, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across southwest Missouri, including the KJLN aerodrome. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible in any showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, surface winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Perez
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Remnants of the MCS from last night continue to progress southward, impacting portions of southeast KS and northeast OK this afternoon. Northerly winds behind a departing boundary have relieved northeast Kansas from the heat and humidity as highs peak in the mid to upper 80s. The nearly stationary boundary situated from northwest Kansas to southeast Kansas will be the focus for additional convection late tonight as a weak midlevel perturbation crosses into the western high plains. Based on previous trends, sided closer to the RAP and HRRR solutions developing convection after 06Z. While much of the coverage of precip focuses just south of the CWA, cannot rule out a slight northward progression during the early morning period. Have therefore placed low chance pops for areas generally south of I-70 through sunrise. Any storms that are able to reach the CWA will be capable of damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall given the 2000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and effective shear around 40 kts. Cloud cover tomorrow and dissipating showers may hold high temps back to the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indices may reach as high as 101 degrees for portions of central Kansas, however confidence in widespread heat indices hitting 100 degrees is low at this point. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to edge east this weekend, another MCS is likely to form across the northern plains before dropping southeast late Friday night into far northeast Kansas and Missouri. The complex should gradually weaken as it impacts eastern Kansas Saturday morning, however a few of the WRF solutions develop an additional MCS complex near the KS/MO border along the nose of the low level jet overnight. Either of these solutions would bring the potential for severe wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall to eastern portions of Kansas. Depending upon on how long precip lingers through the morning Saturday, heat indices may peak around 100 degrees in the late afternoon. Best chances for this to occur reside along and south of I-35, even though if precip lingers in the morning, temps are cooler overall. Dry conditions return Sunday through much of next week as the heat builds underneath the ridge aloft. Overnight MCS complexes will likely ride the edge of the upper ridge, impacting portions of the region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Model differences however in timing and location of these complexes lead to overall low confidence and slight chance pops through the extended period. If these storms linger into the morning, high temps should be cooler than the current forecast. Otherwise, expect heat indices around 100 degrees beginning Monday, potentially spreading over the CWA on Tuesday as h85 temps maximize at 28C. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020 VFR prevails this period. Scattered thunderstorms could develop in central KS overnight but should stay well south of terminals. Lingering cloud cover from convection could impact KMHK but should remain VFR. Light winds will shift to the southeast by Friday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...Teefey