Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/10/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Isolated strong to severe storms are continuing across the
northeast plains of Colorado this evening with large hail. Main
concern is further development further west over the northern
Front Range with weakening intersecting boundaries expected
between 8 and 9 pm. Low level moisture has increased over much of
the area with dewpoints well into the 50s across the urban
corridor. Latest HRRR has developing cells over Eastern Boulder
and Southwest Weld counties which may track just north and east of
Denver through midnight if this comes true. Already seeing some
building towers looking outside our windows here in Boulder. Will
add some pops for thunderstorms further west for the rest of the
evening with the potential for a strong to severe storm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Main focus for late this afternoon and evening will continue to be
the potential for severe thunderstorms. The frontal boundary
continues to shift more westward than the models initially had it,
with dewpoints over northeast Weld County in the low 60s early
this afternoon. Latest HRRR has initiated the developing
thunderstorms a little further west, over northwest Weld County by
early this evening. Will adjust the pops accordingly. MLCAPES
around 1700 j/kg at that time, with favorable shear as well. Best
window in the 00-03z period this evening. Diminishing pops by
late evening, but could see some patchy fog over the northeast
plains late tonight. For Friday, dry and stable with temperatures
back near 100. Fire danger will be elevated with dry fuels, single
digit rh`s and gusty winds primarily in the high mountain
valleys, and along the northern border areas. Reference the fire
weather discussion below.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Through the weekend, hot weather will continue as the strong upper
level ridge remains in place over the southwestern United States.
700 mb temperatures are forecast to reach the mid and upper teens
Celcius through the weekend, implying surface temperatures on the
plains well into the 90s and approaching 100. Sunday looks to be
the warmest day of the weekend, where even Denver has a shot at
the 100 degree mark. Temperatures at the mid-levels will be so
warm that the airmass will remain capped, and convective shower
development will be minimal. Skies should remain sunny both days
except for some fair weather cumulus that develops over the
mountains each afternoon. The warm temperatures will lead to
afternoon humidities dropping into the teens, but pressure
gradients should remain weak, leading to only light winds.
Although Fire Danger levels will be high, the threat of dangerous
fire growth will be limited by the light winds.
From Sunday night through next week, the medium range models begin
moving sub-tropical moisture into the state from the southwest.
The center of the upper level ridge is also forecast to progress
eastward to a position over the southeast United States. This will
allow for more southerly flow aloft which will contain the
increasing moisture levels. Temperatures will remain very warm,
but afternoons will begin seeing more thunderstorm activity
develop. For the time being the forecasts will mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings. Areas
that receive precipitation will see some cooling, but overall the
airmass over the state will remain warm. which will keep the
streak of 90 degree days on the plains going. As the week
progresses, we will need to keep an eye out for locally heavy rain
from the storms that begin developing. All in all, a pretty
typical summerlike pattern for Colorado.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 749 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm forming over the terminals
through 05z with intersecting boundaries and have also seen an
increase in low level moisture. Storms should end after midnight
with gradual clearing skies.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Best combination of gusty winds, low rh and dry fuels will be in
North, Middle and South Parks, the northern Front Range Foothills
and Cheyenne Ridge Friday afternoon. Consequently, a Red Flag
Warning has been issued for these areas. This could be expanded
if winds in the other zones pick up.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ211-
213>215-238-242.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Entrekin
FIRE WEATHER...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
After last night`s MCS moved through central and southeast Kansas
we are continuing to see the effects with east to southeast winds
and scattered cloud cover in northern Kansas. This environment
will play a big factor on if we get any convection late tonight
into early tomorrow morning in the CWA.
The latest trends with the short term models are showing a
shortwave moving through eastern Colorado and western Nebraska
which will develop convection late this afternoon into tonight.
The main question is if the stable environment from the overnight
MCS will keep convection at bay across central and southwest
Kansas late tonight. Most 12Z model trends are hinting at the
convection in Nebraska falling apart well north of the CWA by late
tonight and only a small chance of storms trying to develop along
a frontal boundary in central Kansas after midnight tonight.
Overall it looks like the cap will hold for most of the area today
into tonight so the chances of storms look 20% or less for much of
the area. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s.
Friday is showing a surface low in the Texas panhandle and surface
winds generally in an easterly direction throughout the day. There
looks to be some morning cloud cover as well (if storms don`t form
certainly cloud cover is possible along the frontal boundary
around the I-70 corridor). 850 mb temps at around 21-23 (C) for
most of the CWA would suggest a second straight day of
temperatures being more in the low to mid 90s range for highs.
Storm chances during the day on Friday look to be fairly low.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
West to northwest flow aloft continues throughout the weekend. On
Saturday the main challenge will be how quickly and far south the
cold front moves through the area with temperatures likely being
cooler in our northern counties and the possibility of some
compressional heating in the afternoon getting temperatures over
100 for counties along the Oklahoma border. Kept storm chances out
with the frontal passage at this point as it appears there won`t
be much forcing aloft.
Sunday with a surface high to the east the winds in the CWA will
switch to the southeast allowing moisture to come in by late
afternoon and the early evening. A shortwave will come in from
Colorado by the evening and as a result some evening-overnight
storms will be possible. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to
mid 90s.
Early next week the main focus will be on the heat and how high
temperatures will go for both Monday and Tuesday. The last run of
models was suggesting 104-107 highs on Tuesday. I tend to agree
more with the 12Z run of the Euro where with the westerlies close
enough around the central plains the core of the hottest air will
likely stay more in the Texas panhandle. I still think our far
southwest counties could make a run at highs at 100-105 but
elsewhere I dropped afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday should bring slightly cooler temps with a weak cold
front and northeast winds coming into the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
High confidence that very moist easterly upslope boundary layer
flow will generate widespread MVFR stratus cigs at all airports
tonight. Some IFR is possible at times. Expect stratus to begin
filling in after 06z Fri, with the most widespread stratus in the
12-15z Fri time frame. Concensus of short term models agrees on
the stratus, as well as modest surface visibility reductions in BR
(2-4 sm) 09-12z Fri. Expect E/NE wind components to continue all
night, averaging 10-15 kts. Convection is expected to be limited
this TAF period, with HRRR suggesting some elevated thunderstorms
developing in the vicinity of HYS 06-11z Fri. Included a VCTS/CB
mention for this in the HYS TAF, otherwise the TAFs are dry.
Stratus will take its time breaking up Friday morning (especially
at HYS) with light moist E/SE winds continuing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 95 71 98 / 10 10 0 10
GCK 69 95 68 95 / 10 10 0 10
EHA 69 98 69 100 / 10 10 0 10
LBL 68 98 70 100 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 67 91 71 93 / 30 10 10 10
P28 68 96 75 101 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
608 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE...
SCT/BKN120CU increasing in coverage across the entire area,
diminishing after 02Z. Isolated BKN100CB also developing with
weak/moderate thunderstorms, mainly over the Black Range and
southern Sacramento Mtns. These storms will drift southeast at
around 10 mph-out over the foothills but then likely dissipating
next 2-3 hours. Gusty winds of 25-35kts possible with these storms.
Elsewhere, a few BKN090CB -TSRA possible over the higher terrain of
the NM Bootheel until around 03Z. These storms are moving northwest
at around 10 mph. Gusty winds of 30-40kts possible with these
storms. Non-thunderstorm winds should remain at or below 10kts.
&&
Hefner
.PREV DISCUSSION...1247 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
The ongoing heat wave across the region will continue for several
more days, lasting through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal
for most areas as conditions are expected to remain dry. Limited
moisture will arrive early next week which will eventually cool
temperatures a few degrees and help generate a few thunderstorms
by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow
The forecast is almost identical to yesterdays. A large upper level
ridge continues to spin over southern NM. This evening, recycled
moisture still lingers around the area. Some light CU are sprouting
up in the higher elevations. HRRR does grow the sprouting CU into
towering CU and maybe some TS this evening for the Gila, however
confidence is low due to the area drying out even more today. Little
to no rain chances for the area Friday afternoon and evening.
Our high temperatures this evening and tomorrow will reach 10 - 15
degrees above normal, flirting with records. A heat advisory is
currently out for the lowlands through the short term period. High
temperatures rose 2 - 3 degrees warmer than forecasted yesterday, so
with the higher forecasted temperatures today and Friday we could
see the higher elevation zones (areas sandwiched between 6,500ft and
7,500ft) reach advisory level (above 100 degrees) in some areas.
Remember that heat is the silent killer. People in the sensitive
group (older and young people) should not be outside for a prolonged
period of time. Stay hydrated, and remember to always check you back
seat.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Our unusually strong upper high will remain centered directly
over New Mexico as it continues to strengthen into the upcoming
weekend. Models still have 500mb heights peaking at around 6000
meters by Saturday afternoon. As such, Saturday still looks to be
the hottest day area wide. However temperatures will
consistently stay 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the
weekend and even into early next week. Currently heat advisories
cover all lowland zones through Saturday morning, but will most
likely be extended eventually to include the upcoming weekend as
well.
In general the upper circulation will continue to divert any
incoming moisture to our west over Arizona through Saturday. Thus
storm chances look to remain nil locally for several additional
days. By Sunday models hint at some spill over moisture reaching
our northern zones. Therefore a slight mention of precipitation
has been added to the higher elevations for both Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Meanwhile as the ridge slowly shifts eastward early
next week, moisture will eventually track into our western and
central zones Tuesday and Wednesday. The end result will be a
minor drop in daytime temps with a general uptick in convective
activity for the area.
&&
.AVIATION...A slight chance for a few weak thunderstorms in the higher
terrain, which are not expected to impact any TAF sites. VFR
conditions will prevail in most areas. Light northerly winds will
become more variable by the late afternoon and early evening
hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and relatively dry conditions are expected to persist through
early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. There will be a slight chance of a (mostly dry) thunderstorm
over the Black Range, Sacramento Mountains, and/or the NM Bootheel
later this afternoon, but any storms will be short-lived and limited
to the higher terrain. Max Haines Indices of 5 and 6 during the
days will last through the weekend. Minimum RH values will drop into
the 8 to 15 percent range through the weekend, with light winds
prevailing.
The subtropical ridge looks to shift to the east Tuesday, tapping
into some moisture along the AZ/NM border near the NM Bootheel. This
moisture could make it up to the Gila, giving the western areas rain
and TS chances early to mid week next week.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 80 108 80 108 / 0 20 0 0
Sierra Blanca 74 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 75 105 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 74 105 75 106 / 0 20 0 0
Cloudcroft 56 82 58 84 / 0 20 0 0
Truth or Consequences 76 104 75 106 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 71 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 73 106 72 107 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 70 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 79 106 81 108 / 0 20 0 0
Dell City 72 107 73 107 / 0 20 0 0
Fort Hancock 78 108 77 108 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 74 100 76 101 / 0 20 0 0
Fabens 77 107 80 107 / 0 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 76 105 76 106 / 0 10 0 0
White Sands HQ 78 105 80 106 / 0 10 0 0
Jornada Range 74 105 74 105 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 76 106 73 107 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 79 106 75 107 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 76 105 76 106 / 0 20 0 0
Mayhill 65 94 64 95 / 0 20 0 0
Mescalero 62 94 62 94 / 0 20 0 0
Timberon 58 90 60 91 / 0 20 0 0
Winston 64 97 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 73 104 70 105 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 71 104 72 105 / 0 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 98 63 100 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 71 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 64 103 63 106 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 59 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 68 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 71 105 71 106 / 0 10 0 0
Hachita 70 105 69 106 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 68 103 70 104 / 0 10 0 0
Cloverdale 64 98 68 99 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ404>407-409>413-417.
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418>424.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Showers and storms continue to push across central Illinois
tonight, with storms beginning to slowly diminish. Locations west
of the Illinois River Valley will see drying conditions overnight,
with locations across eastern Illinois still awaiting the arrival
of rainfall. A slightly cooler end to the week, and start to the
weekend will arrive across the Midwest behind this system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Made some short term edits, especially to the PoPs to account for
the current location of showers and storms. Expecting the
activity to continue pushing eastward through the overnight. With
outflow advancing well ahead of the system, on radar, activity
should be decreasing. With storms out of the Watch area, went
ahead and canceled the Watch box early. Slightly cooler temps are
still expected to arrive Friday and linger into the weekend. As
well as a change and increase in winds, from the northwest heading
through the overnight into Friday. Had to edit temps slightly for
tonight, due to the arrival of cooler conditions already behind
fropa.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Much of the southwest half of the CWA has been weakly capped this
afternoon. The exception is a narrow corridor currently near the
I-57 corridor. Isolated instability showers and storms will
persist over eastern IL the next few hours. Additional isolated
storms possible near/north of I-74 where little capping is evident
based on visible satellite imagery.
The main weather concern is severe convective potential this
evening, as a shortwave and associated weak low and front
currently over east central IA, track east across IL. The
atmosphere ahead of this system will feature ample instability
with MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear while initially
weak, will increase to 25-30 kt with the approach of the upper
wave. This should be sufficient for organized storms/clusters to
track east/southeast out of Iowa and across primarily the northern
half of the CWA this evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts appear
to be the primary threat with hail secondary, mainly early in the
strongest updrafts due to high wet bulb zero heights. Tornado
threat still looks low and based on storm scale/mesoscale effects
to locally increased low level shear. As instability decreases
and storms outrun the better shear, a weakening trend should be
noted towards midnight as storms track into eastern IL.
Behind the front for late tonight and Friday, a period of brisk
(for mid- summer) west/northwest winds will overspread the area as
the gradient briefly tightens ahead of 1015 mb high pressure
building towards MO. Some 25 mph gusts are possible by late
Friday morning and into the afternoon. This "cold air" advection
should limit highs to the upper 80s, though with dewpoints
remaining in the lower 70s conditions will still be humid.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
The next chance for storms is tied to a shortwave dropping
southeast across the area Saturday night. While some convection
could develop Saturday afternoon, highest (chance) pops are
carried for Saturday night. Lingering storms to exit the area
Sunday morning, but the bulk of the day to be dry. Again a decent
surface pressure gradient behind this system for a period of
gustier northwest winds Sunday. 850 mb temps drop into the lower
teens C, should result in seasonable temperatures for Sunday and
Monday.
The main concern for much of the week is a large heat dome
currently building over the southwest and south central U.S. Early
next week a longwave trof developing out west will force this
strong upper ridge east/northeast towards the mid-Mississippi
River Valley. There is still some uncertainty in how far north
this ridge can build, as guidance shows a series of shortwaves
tracking across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, in a classic
ring of fire pattern. Current guidance suggests this activity will
stay north of the area, resulting in mainly dry but hot and humid
conditions. Widespread low to mid 90s highs expected for Tue-Thu,
with heat indices near heat index criteria (105 F) for Wed/Thu.
Slight to low chance pops primarily over the northern CWA through
the extended, closer to the stronger westerlies over the upper
Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 739 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Line of convection is getting started to the west and should move
toward PIA and BMI this evening. With storms moving east-northeast
think PIA and BMI could get missed, though HRRR does still show
convection reaching these sites. So will just have VCTS for now
for couple of hours this evening until can get a better handle on
timing and if it will be on-station. Have also included
SPI/DEC/CMI with VCTS for couple of hours as well. Cigs should
remain VFR through the period, even with TS over/near stations.
Then broken clouds for several hours after precip moves out at all
sites. Tomorrow should be scattered clouds at all sites with
breezy winds out of the northwest.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Baker
SYNOPSIS...Baker
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...Auten
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Left over mesoscale complex from Wednesday night split into two main
areas wit hone moving across the Midwest and the other diving
southeast across eastern KS/OK. Upper low located over southern MB
also moving northeast while next upper low continues to move onshore
in southern BC. Otherwise a fairly typical summertime pattern has
set up across the southern U.S. leaving western and north central NE
in zonal flow aloft. Several embedded PV anomalies within the zonal
flow across the central Rockies as noted subtly in water vapor
imagery. Also seen in satellite imagery is what left of an undular
bore that moved quickly southwest through the area early this
morning, located across the Panhandle into southwest NE. Stable air
behind this feature noted as well. Numerous other boundaries have
been seen on radar though not associated with cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Tonight...subtle short wave troughs embedded within the weak zonal
flow aloft will provide larger scale lift across the High Plains
this afternoon and evening as easterly upslope flow remains in place
at the surface. The larger scale lift is maximized by late evening
as the nocturnal LLJ get organized across the Panhandle providing
isentropic lift co-located with best low level moisture. Models
differ on how this gets resolved with respect to convective
initiation or in some case none at all. With all of the left over
boundaries from last nights convection, lack of large scale lift
during peak heating will likely mean convective initiation will be
relegated to terrain features such as the Laramie range again as
well as possibly the Pine ridge area of northwest NE. This line of
thought agrees fairly well with current solutions offered by the
HRRR and to some degree several other CAM ensemble members.
However, pattern recognition of a post-frontal regime during
convective season would suggest terrain-based initiation west of
the area should track southeastward toward higher low level
moisture and LLJ which would primarily affect the eastern
Panhandle and far southwest NE. So confidence in the convective
evolution is only moderate at best. Any storm in this environment
will be in an area of decent deep layer shear and moderate CAPE,
especially in the Panhandle. This does coincide with the SPC
slight risk area and their line of thought.
Overnight will see the LLJ veering to southerly and the low level
moist axis expanding further into southwest NE. this scenario
under the larger scale slowly rising heights may favor stratus
and/or fog. See further discussion in the aviation section.
For Friday...weak upper height rises continue across the Great Basin
and southern Rockies while the next upper low moves across the
northern Rockies. This promotes upper level jet enhancement leading
to better large scale lift across the northern High Plains into the
Dakotas by late afternoon. Meanwhile the aforementioned low level
moisture axis shifts/expands eastward as deeper mixing occurs
further west in the drier air and better insolation. This will mix
the dryline eastward as well which should place the dryline boundary
across the western Sandhills into north central NE by late
afternoon. East of this feature will lie a very unstable
environment, however capped to deep vertical mixing due to a strong
warm, subsidence layer aloft. Deep layer shear would also be
favorable in this area, however larger scale models are consistent
in not developing convection along this boundary due to this
existing cap and the lack of large scale lift to remove the cap.
However, a few CAM members do develop convection leading to
uncertainty in forecast evolution. In general, better large scale
lift and associated mesoscale focus boundaries will exist across the
Dakotas to promote vigorous convection by late afternoon. Models
also fairly consistent in developing one or two large convection
complexes which will track southeast across the Dakotas and into
northeast NE overnight. Northeastern portion of the forecast area
will be in the vicinity of this track so slight risk warranted
there. POPs will be included for areas along and east of the dryline
boundary, but confidence is low at this point.
Temperatures overnight will be near climatological norms, while
highs will rise again to above averages for this time of year for
Friday. Winds a little stronger out of the south to southwest during
the day and temps may be slow to climb early due to cloud cover.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
For the weekend...upper level ridging builds across the southwestern
United States through the weekend as the previously mentioned
expansive upper low across BC moves eastward across southern Canada.
Though the heights build there will still be opportunities for
thunderstorm development especially when originating along the
higher terrain further west. Coverage looks scattered at best.
For Monday and beyond...Great Basin ridging gets flattened as the
upper low continues to move across southern Canada and the northern
portion of the U.S. This will set the stage for better large scale
lifting as faster zonal flow develop across the area. This should
lead to better confidence in development as well as better coverage
Monday through Wednesday. Temps will likely remain at or slightly
above average for this time of year in the upper 80s to lower 90s in
the south, likely slightly less than average in the north.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
VFR is generally expected across western and north central
Nebraska tonight and Friday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening (00z-05z)
affecting areas along and west of highway 61. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across ncntl Nebraska Friday afternoon
(21z-00z). Otherwise, VFR will prevail across the region.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
720 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Only a couple of showers are showing up on radar this hour, which
is less activity than we`ve seen at this time the past several
evenings. The 00Z sounding from OHX shows the same unstable
environment in place, although not entirely saturated. The flow at
the surface and aloft is quite diffuse with no definable features
over Middle Tennessee and the wind field lacks support. So we`ve
been limited to sparse, heat-driven convection this afternoon. The
HRRR shows only a stray shower or two going forward, so we`ll cut
POP`s out of the overnight forecast. Look for more radiation fog
as we get into the early morning. Otherwise, no forecast changes
are planned for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VCTS is still possible at CSV for a few hours this evening, but
otherwise VFR conditions and no precip are expected at airports
tonight. Fog is anticipated to bring MVFR visibility to CKV/CSV
overnight. Tomorrow remains uncertain as far as coverage of
SHRA/TSRA, but most confident on VCTS impacting CSV with VCSH
elsewhere. Light southwest winds tonight will increase and become
northwest on Friday.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
538 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Hi-res guidance has struggled with over-achieving cold pool from
early morning convection. Resultant differential mixing zone has
become diffuse this afternoon as diabatic surface heating has
modified the cool side. Still, not significant heating on the cool
side for us to reach Heat Advisory criteria, thus the start time for
northern Oklahoma was delayed until tomorrow in an earlier update.
Hot temperatures and deeper mixing in far western Oklahoma may allow
for a few isolated storms to form late this afternoon through early
evening, but this seems quite conditional. Cumulus so far is
underwhelming there, and midlevel temperatures are quite warm. Low-
level water vapor channel shows plume of warm/subsidence
overspreading the area, commensurate with midlevel height rises. The
cumulus development in north-central Oklahoma is flat/laminar and
unlikely to grow vertically/convect given 1) less-than-expected
heating from residual modifying cold pool, and 2) warm midlevel
temperatures contributing to significant CIN.
So aside from any isolated pseudo high-based (in relative terms)
convection that can develop later today in western Oklahoma later
today, the only other opportunities for storms appears to be 1) in
our far northeast counties around Ponca City where weak midlevel
convection could develop or move in, 2) within enhanced cumulus
along the differential mixing boundary from near Norman
southeastward toward Atoka where heating has been substantial and
deeper/richer moisture is present (80F dew point at Lane mesonet as
I write this).
Within the latter concern area, effective shear of around 30 knot
owing to modest northwesterly flow and backed low-level flow could
support at least some storm organization and possibly transient
supercell characteristics. Large hail and damaging winds are
possible with any storms that can initiate. The best chance will be
further east, since the further west you go the warmer midlevel
temperatures are.
Despite struggles earlier, hi-res models should be able to handle
tonight`s mechanisms for storms a little better. Midlevel
clouds/moisture seen in satellite now oriented from central Kansas
through southeast Kansas should focus elevated thunderstorm
development later this evening or tonight. Although this convection
may not be quite as robust or capable of producing such a dramatic
cold pool, some consolidation/organization is expected, and storms
in at least a weakened state should propagate into north-central
Oklahoma and eventually toward the I-40 corridor late in the night
or early Friday morning.
BRB
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Hot/deeply mixed environment over the Texas Panhandle is
supporting some high-based generally weak convection there. Some
of this may drift into our western counties into early evening
with a gusty wind threat. Of potentially greater concern is an
area of moisture convergence centered near Taloga. Modified
observed soundings for current conditions suggest substantial
convective inhibition exists, also shown well in RAP forecast
soundings. Further confirming warm mid levels and capping is a
plume of particularly dry/subsident air mass advecting eastward
across this area as seen in 7.3 low-level water vapor. Magnitude
of convergence may be enough for at least some convective
attempts, that may be difficult to sustain. If a storm can form
there is sufficient northwesterly flow aloft opposing
southeasterly flow at the surface for storm tilt/organization
(30-40 knots effective shear), and severe wind and hail would
occur. This still seems like a low probability at this time.
Further southeast along the differential mixing boundary/remnant
outflow toward Pauls Valley/Ada/Atoka, Day Cloud Phase
Distinction RGB indicates perhaps a tad more ice within the more
vertically- developed cumulus, but the character/texture still
seems to show capping may suppress CI altogether. We`ll continue
to watch that area for possible isolated development, but
confidence isn`t high. To the north of this differential mixing
zone, a stable cloud pattern gives confidence that surface-based
convection will not occur. See earlier sections for details on
potential for midlevel/elevated convection later tonight across
the north.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 452 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Remnant convection and outflow will likely limit temperatures
across northern Oklahoma more than originally thought, and thus we
have delayed the start time of the Heat Advisory until Saturday.
Even then, trends in model guidance suggests a cold front may
intrude deeper into Oklahoma than earlier thought. Ensemble mean
has core of mid-upper high to our west a little weaker and less
anomalous than before, and influence of central/northern Plains
shortwave trough and associated surface features a little further
southwest. Saturday afternoon, an isolated storm is possible near
this boundary, but midlevel temperatures and CIN is still
substantial so the threat is conditional. Deep mixing and hot
temperatures across the west (south of aforementioned boundary)
could lead to isolated high-based convection, too. We may need to
trend toward a broader area of at least low probabilities if mid
level moisture and subtle northwest-southeast baroclinic zone can
result in some convection Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise,
still above normal temperatures into early next week with hot
temperatures contributing to low RH and possibly elevated fire
weather conditions in the west, particularly Monday onward.
BRB
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
We may see some thunderstorms again Friday morning in north
central Oklahoma near KPNC, but precipitation chances remain
relatively low elsewhere. The thunderstorms developing in the
southeast Texas panhandle will likely dissipate before moving
toward KCSM or KLAW. Apart from any thunderstorms that may develop
or move into the area, VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 76 97 77 102 / 20 20 10 20
Hobart OK 77 102 78 108 / 10 0 0 10
Wichita Falls TX 77 101 78 105 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 73 102 76 104 / 10 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 74 93 78 98 / 50 30 10 20
Durant OK 75 95 76 100 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-026.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ023>025-027>048-
050>052.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Aviation section updated.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Radar has been much quieter so far this afternoon compared to recent
days. Isolated showers have struggled to get going with only a few
lightning strikes noted so far. Our region appears to reside in
between zones of better moisture and lift to our east and southwest.
Recent runs of the HRRR have hinted at a little more activity
developing into portions of southeast Missouri by 22-00z. With 25-30
knots of bulk shear working into the Ozark Foothills, can`t rule out
a strong thunderstorm if this occurred.
Shortwave energy will pass by to our north tonight dragging a cold
front through our region. Several models indicate a dry passage for
our entire cwa, but given some signal for a little convection to
sneak into the north, have decided to keep in small PoPs for closer
to I-64. This may linger into the early/mid morning hours in our far
east.
The bulk of Friday appears dry now, with drier air working into the
region on northwest winds behind the frontal passage. Right now not
anticipating diurnal convection developing during the afternoon.
Dewpoints likely will drop into the upper 60s to around 70 by
afternoon, and may be localized even lower depending on the degree
of mixing. Temperatures will be a touch cooler east of the
Mississippi River, but still topping out around 90.
Saturday also looks dry for much of the area, however a potential
MCS provides some uncertainty. The consensus is for this MCS to
dive southeastward across Missouri and into Arkansas, possibly
clipping our 4 western counties in the Ozark Foothills. However,
the Canadian takes it right over the heart of the cwa during the
afternoon. For now will disregard the Canadian and agree with the
further southwest track. The potential would exist for a limited
risk for severe thunderstorms with any organized complex, which
right now is highest to the west and south of our area.
Humidity levels will remain somewhat lower on Saturday, with
dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70. Siding with the
drier solution results in afternoon temperatures likely reaching
into the lower 90s again.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
The start of the long term will feature an upper level trough in the
eastern United States with a ridge across the western half of the
country. The Quad State region will see northwesterly flow aloft.
Models agree on a shortwave near the Eastern Great Lakes and a
shortwave near Wisconsin but differ on the intensity of the
features. The GFS and Canadian models develop the Wisconsin
shortwave to be a significant rainmaker for the Great Lakes, while
the ECMWF is little impressed. The models agree on a cold front
passing through the Quad State on Sunday. Precise timing and
strength vary so PoPs are kept at chance levels for Saturday night
through Sunday afternoon. However, precipitation duration is likely
to be on the order of a few hours during that span. Some
thunderstorms are possible with this system, more likely during the
heat of the day Sunday.
Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will decrease for the
start of the workweek. This relief will be short-lived while a high
pressure center will move into the Quad State Monday as the ridge
shifts eastward. Once the high shifts to the east coast southerly
flow returns Tuesday which will send temperatures rising. By
midweek, highs will reach the mid 90s with heat index values 100-105
likely.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Generally VFR through Friday. Isolated convection possible
tonight. SSW winds around 4 to 8 kts will become W tonight, then
NW toward morning and continue through the day Friday, occasional
gusts 15 to 20 kts midday through late afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Currently...Easterly surface flow today has done what was
anticipated and has kept high temps just below the century mark.
Radar was showing a boundary pushing west towards the mts and just
moving into El Paso and Pueblo Counties as of 245 pm. Isolated
convection was igniting in Lincoln County, but so far nothing has
initiated in the cwa.
In general, the relatively flat ridge of high pressure over the
desert southwest will remain in place over the next 24 hrs, with an
upper trough crossing Canada and the northern Rockies Fri aftn and
eve.
Tonight...Surface winds are forecast to remain easterly through the
night, with llvl moisture steadily pushing back to the west towards
the I-25 corridor. Latest HRRR indicates that the convection
currently in Lincoln County will remain north of the forecast area,
with just a hit of a shower perhaps towards morning in the Pikes
Peak Region as a result of the constant easterly push. Ongoing
forecast grids indicate isolated chances over the far eastern plains
this eve, then isolated convection for the Pikes Peak Region early
tomorrow morning. In addition, SPC guidance paints a Marginal area
for strong to severe storms over Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and a portion
of Baca County tonight, so cannot argue the isolated possibility.
Otherwise, low clouds are forecast to push into the eastern plains
late tonight, reaching the I-25 corridor around the midnight time
frame and remaining into the morning. Plan on overnight lows in the
upper 30s to near 50F for the high valleys, and in the 50s to mid
60s for the plains.
Tomorrow...The lower levels should start mixing out from west to
east tomorrow morning between 8 and 10 am, with low clouds
dissipating during the late morning. Hot and dry conditions are on
tap for tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the
high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains.
-Moore
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Friday night- Saturday...A weak front moves over the plains
late Friday night into Saturday which will keep temperatures down
a few degrees, but highs are still expected in the 90s. Stuck
again with persistence out west where winds aloft will continue
to keep temps warm. The only significant variation between models
was the timing on the influx of moist air in the morning. POPs are
still pretty low, even with some moisture in the area it is
probable that any falling precip would not reach the ground as any
isolated storms that managed to form would be very high based.
Saturday night-Sunday night...Models continue to indicate embedded
energy topping the upper ridge across the Northern Rockies through
the day Saturday which continues out across Northern High Plains
Saturday night, and sends another weak backdoor front across the
eastern Plains of Colorado late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. Latest models are also indicating increased mid and upper
level moisture rotating around the upper high across the southern
Rockies and into southern portions of Colorado through the day on
Sunday. With that said, while can`t rule out an isolated storm
across the area Saturday evening, it looks like Sunday afternoon and
evening will have better chances for storms, especially across the
southeastern mountains and immediate adjacent plains. Convection on
both days continues to be mainly high based, producing gusty outflow
winds with little measurable rainfall. Temperatures on Sunday still
look to be warm, with highs mainly in the 90s to around the century
mark across the plains, and mainly in the 70s and 80s across the
higher terrain.
Monday-Tuesday...Increasing westerly flow is progged through early
next week, as more eastern Pacific energy translates across the
Intermountain West on Monday and across the Northern Rockies on
Tuesday. This will allow for a decrease in available moisture with
lee troughing and deep mixing owing to increased fire danger across
the area, especially on Tuesday. There looks to be enough residual
moisture to support isolated high based storms for areas over and
near the higher terrain on Monday, with models differing on the
amount of available moisture to work with on Tuesday. Latest NBM
pops leaning towards the drier side, though continues to give
isolated pops over and near the higher terrain on Tuesday. Still
looks to be hot Monday and Tuesday with highs of 95 to 105 across
the plains and in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain.
Wednesday-Thursday...Models continue to indicate another backdoor
cold front pushing across the eastern Plains Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures expected across eastern
Colorado on Wednesday. Models do differ on the amount of available
moisture, with the GFS tapping into some subtropical moisture
pushing across the Rockies from the Desert SW on Wednesday. The
latest EC is much drier for Wednesday, though does also indicate the
potential for some subtropical moisture oozing into the Rockies on
Thursday underneath the persistent upper high. With that said,
stayed with current blended model pops, which keeps mainly isolated
afternoon and evening storms in place through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Updated AFD to include mention of VCTS into the COS and PUB tafs,
right around the midnight time frame through early Friday morning.
Increasing moisture/instability and focus along parts of the I-25
corridor could support at least some isolated storms for a few
hour window tonight. Once again, have included VCTS, but will
continue to monitor trends to possibly include a tempo or
prevailing group with thunder.
VFR conditions and mostly light winds are expected at KALS over the
forecast period. KCOS and KPUB will have VFR conditions and
slightly stronger winds into early evening. Overnight a low stratus
deck is expected to form, although confidence between the models is
generally low when it comes to timing. CIGS will lower to around 1k
feet by about 6-8z for both sites, so MVFR and IFR conditions are
possible during this time. The clouds are currently expected to
dissipate by tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO/RODRIGUEZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
As of 3 PM, a complex of showers and thunderstorms had largely
cleared south-central Missouri. A few showers and thunderstorms
have persisted across southeastern Kansas in an area of 850 mb
convergence. Temperatures this afternoon varied considerably
across the Ozarks due to left over mid and high clouds. Areas up
towards Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla are up around 90 while
temperatures around Branson were only in the lower 70s.
As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, a few
thunderstorms will remain possible across the eastern Ozarks as
the atmosphere remains relatively uncapped. Elevated storms will
also remain possible across southeastern Kansas, although coverage
should tend to diminish as that low-level jet weakens.
Once we get to late this evening and the overnight period, there
is a wide variety of model solutions that generally fall into
three camps:
1) Dry conditions prevail with thunderstorm potential remaining
over the northern and central Plains.
2) Scattered elevated storms re-fire across southeastern Kansas
and southwestern Missouri as that low-level jet re-strengthens and
veers towards the region.
3) Numerous elevated storms fire across southeastern Kansas and
northeastern Oklahoma with an MCS developing and tracking
southeast (possibly clipping southwest Missouri).
At this point, we are leaning towards the second scenario with at
least some loose support from the CAMs. The last few runs of the
RAP also support the second scenario. It should be noted that
earlier versions of the RAP favored the MCS scenario.
We may then see some leftover activity Friday morning, however it
appears that many locations will remain dry throughout the day as
we experience upper level height rises. There will be some low-
level convergence over far southwestern Missouri, thus that area
will have to be watched for isolated convective potential.
Despite the potential for a few storms, models do not show too
much spread for highs on Friday. We therefore stuck close to the
50th percentile with most areas warming into the upper 80s or
lower 90s. The warmest readings will be over far southwest
Missouri and southeastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Models then signal more MCS potential from Friday night into
Saturday, however timing and location remain unclear. High
temperatures on Saturday are also a tough call and may vary a
decent amount as you go from southwest to northeast across the
Ozarks. NBM numbers paint upper 90s for Joplin and Anderson with
upper 80s to around 90 for the eastern Ozarks. Heat headlines will
be in play for Saturday along the I-49 corridor if these highs pan
out.
Thunderstorm potential is then there once again from Saturday
night into Sunday as short wave energy drives a weak front through
the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler behind
that front with highs ranging from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
Long wave charts then continue to support an upper level ridge
building over much of the central and eastern U.S. as we get into
the middle and latter portions of next week. NBM probabilities
and CIPS analogs all support dry conditions and above normal
temperatures.
Highs in the middle to upper 90s look likely with the 100 degree
mark potentially within reach in some areas. Heat headlines will
once again be in play, especially with several consecutive days
of hot temperatures expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Expect VFR conditions to continue through tonight with an area of
high level clouds present across portions of southwest Missouri
this evening. By tomorrow morning, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across southwest Missouri,
including the KJLN aerodrome. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are
possible in any showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, surface
winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Perez
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
Remnants of the MCS from last night continue to progress southward,
impacting portions of southeast KS and northeast OK this afternoon.
Northerly winds behind a departing boundary have relieved northeast
Kansas from the heat and humidity as highs peak in the mid to upper
80s. The nearly stationary boundary situated from northwest Kansas
to southeast Kansas will be the focus for additional convection
late tonight as a weak midlevel perturbation crosses into the
western high plains. Based on previous trends, sided closer to the
RAP and HRRR solutions developing convection after 06Z. While
much of the coverage of precip focuses just south of the CWA,
cannot rule out a slight northward progression during the early
morning period. Have therefore placed low chance pops for areas
generally south of I-70 through sunrise. Any storms that are able
to reach the CWA will be capable of damaging wind gusts, hail, and
heavy rainfall given the 2000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and effective shear
around 40 kts.
Cloud cover tomorrow and dissipating showers may hold high temps
back to the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indices may reach as high as
101 degrees for portions of central Kansas, however confidence in
widespread heat indices hitting 100 degrees is low at this point.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
As the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to edge east
this weekend, another MCS is likely to form across the northern
plains before dropping southeast late Friday night into far
northeast Kansas and Missouri. The complex should gradually weaken
as it impacts eastern Kansas Saturday morning, however a few of the
WRF solutions develop an additional MCS complex near the KS/MO
border along the nose of the low level jet overnight. Either of
these solutions would bring the potential for severe wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall to eastern portions of Kansas. Depending upon
on how long precip lingers through the morning Saturday, heat
indices may peak around 100 degrees in the late afternoon. Best
chances for this to occur reside along and south of I-35, even
though if precip lingers in the morning, temps are cooler overall.
Dry conditions return Sunday through much of next week as the heat
builds underneath the ridge aloft. Overnight MCS complexes will
likely ride the edge of the upper ridge, impacting portions of the
region Sunday night through Tuesday night. Model differences however
in timing and location of these complexes lead to overall low
confidence and slight chance pops through the extended period. If
these storms linger into the morning, high temps should be cooler
than the current forecast. Otherwise, expect heat indices around 100
degrees beginning Monday, potentially spreading over the CWA on
Tuesday as h85 temps maximize at 28C.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020
VFR prevails this period. Scattered thunderstorms could develop in
central KS overnight but should stay well south of terminals.
Lingering cloud cover from convection could impact KMHK but should
remain VFR. Light winds will shift to the southeast by Friday
morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...Teefey