Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1012 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic
coast today, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low
pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on
Wednesday, and slowly tracks northeast to the mid Atlantic coast
through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM EDT Monday...
An area of showers/tstms lingers over the MD Ern Shore this
evening, with mainly partly cloudy to mostly clear and dry
conditions elsewhere. The convective intensity is waning late
this evening, and at this point the main threats are heavy rain
and lightning. A few localized stronger wind gusts are possible
through 11 pm. Otherwise, PoPs gradually diminish overnight.
However, the HRRR has been consistent showing some lingering
showers across the MD Ern Shore overnight, so 30-40% PoPs run
through 09z, with 20-30% 09-12z. Warm and humid tonight with
lows in the low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...
On Tue, the trough aloft will be offshore of the Delmarva coast and
overall conditions in the morning should be partly to mostly
sunny w/ dry conditions. The overall mid level pattern will
feature a developing weak trough over the TN Valley and deep
south, with a weak ridge over the local area (especially near
the coast). Latest 12Z/06 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in
good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local
area and therefore PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just
scattered 30-40% coverage across south central VA/interior NE
NC and mostly 20% or lower elsewhere (did maintain ~30% PoP on
the MD eastern shore for some seabreeze induced tstms in the
aftn). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily
in the mid 80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and over
most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. It will continue to be
humid however. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves ENE
to near the SC coast, and then is expected to linger near the
border of NC/SC coast during Wed with weak steering flow aloft.
Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue
night, then spreading N during Wed, with likely PoPs Wed aftn
over the S. It will be rather humid Wed with dew pts remaining
in the lower to mid 70s even through the aftn hrs, but highs
will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more
clouds, ranging from the lower to mid 80s S to the upper
80s/near 90 N. The potential for localized flash flooding
increases Wed in the south where WPC has a day 3 Marginal for
excessive rain, and all zones Thu as PWAT values surge to 1.75"+
along with the weak steering flow. Will have high chc to likely
PoPs Thu with highs in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...
After the coastal low moves northeast of the area, expect a broad
upper trough to settle in across the eastern part of the United
States through the weekend. This will keep a residual surface trough
across the area as well leading to the typical summertime scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms. Best chances for this would be
Friday and again Saturday with a little more upper moisture but each
day will have chances for showers/storms. Temperatures seasonable
generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the upper
60s/lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Monday...
A large cluster of tstms is located across NE MD and nrn DE as
of 00z. This activity is expected to drift SE over the next few
hours, and potentially affects SBY between 02-05z. This will
bring the potential for MVFR or IFR conditions, primarily in
vsby, and locally strong wind gusts. A chc of showers will then
linger at SBY through 09z. Otherwise, there is only a slight
chc of a shower or tstm through 06z at RIC/PHF, with mainly dry
conditions at ORF/ECG. The wind will remain southerly tonight
outside of any showers/tstms, with speeds of 5-8kt. Mostly sunny
Tuesday with SCT aftn CU and a S to SSE wind of 8-10kt. There is
a 20% chc of aftn showers/tstms at most sites, and ~30% at SBY.
Increased coverage of showers/tstms is expected Wednesday
through Saturday as low pressure is expected to lift NE along
the coastal Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coast. Patchy morning
stratus is also possible Thursday through Saturday as low-level
moisture increases.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...
Generally south winds tonight through Wednesday with the broad high
off the coast and weak low pressure over the southeastern states.
May be a few hours late this afternoon into this evening with gusts
of up to 20 kt in the bay and coastal waters, but these gusts should
diminish after midnight. The aforementioned southeast low is
expected to move off the Carolina coast later Wed night. This will
allow winds to turn onshore and increase. A great deal of
uncertainty of the exact track and timing of the low itself, but
there will likely be a period of small craft advisory conditions at
some point Wednesday night into Thursday. The low will move
northeast of the area by Friday, although a lingering trough will
continue. As such, winds will briefly turn northwest on Thursday but
then shift back south on Friday. Seas will be 1-2 ft in the bay
tonight into Wed and 2-3 ft over the open waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...
Will be issuing another Coastal Flood Statement for Bayside of
the MD eastern shore for marginal/nuisance tidal flooding with
the upcoming high tide later tonight/early Tue AM due to the
persistent southerly flow.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
917 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Will drop the severe thunderstorm watch across the far southwest
with this product issuance, and remove severe wording as the main
threat will remain to our south across South Dakota. Plenty of
shear though we lack decent MLCAPE. Updated POPs again based on
radar and near term model guidance.
UPDATE
Issued at 804 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Quick update to adjust POPs based on latest radar and near term
trends. Broken line of showers and storms now over western ND.
Models not in sync so precip chances this evening were challenging
to forecast. Sided with the last couple runs of the HRRR which
seemed to best depict what is happening now, and also broadbrushed
a bit for the uncertainty. Kept SVR in the grids for mainly the
west central/southwest and far south, though the best severe
potential will definitely be in SD here on out. The watch
continues with this product issuance.
UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Still a bit of a wait and see game with regards to severe weather.
Storms have tried to get going across the southwest, but have been
struggling, potentially dealing with some inhibition in the mixed
layer. MLCAPE is also quite a bit weaker than SBCAPE. Mid-level
lapse rates have been fairly weak but continue to steepen across
southern Montana and northern Wyoming. These steeper lapse rates
and stronger MLCAPE should nudge into the southwest as the
stronger mid-level wave approaches. The latest CAM solutions are
a mixed bag, but the general thought seems to show a later
initiation time (00z to 03z) for some stronger cells to get going.
Thus, the conditional threat remains if said cells do develop or
if the Montana cells can sustain themselves as they reach our
border. No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended
in the latest observations to the going forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Quick update to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Slope,
Bowman, and Adams counties across the far southwest. Storms will
continue to increase in intensity and in coverage of the next
couple of hours. While the best shear will remain close to the
South Dakota border, a few storms capable of hail up to golf ball
size and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in the watch
area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Two areas of isolated thunderstorms in the early going this
afternoon. One is across the James River valley and another is
across the far southwest.
Per SPC mesoanalysis, little capping is present for surface based
parcels and the southern half of the state is currently ranging
from 1500 to 2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Some MLCIN is still present across
the far southwest, which may be keeping the storms there from
developing further at this time. As numerous subtle shortwaves
approach from Montana, storms should continue to develop this
afternoon and evening along and north of a residual frontal
boundary extending from the southern James River valley into
northwestern South Dakota.
At the moment, effective shear is somewhat lacking but should
increase to the 35 to 45 knot range as the better mid level winds
approach across the southern half of the state. The best low and
deep layer shear will reside close to the South Dakota border. A
mixture of multicell modes and some supercells are likely by late
afternoon and into the evening as storms track from southwestern
North Dakota to south central. These storms may produce very large
hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. As
better effective storm relative helicity and deep shear approaches
the area tonight, we may see a brief window for a tornado or two
near the residual frontal boundary if storms can remain discrete.
Storms will exit into South Dakota overnight.
Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again on Tuesday.
Expect mostly dry conditions for much of the day. We probably
won`t be seeing any height falls until the late afternoon or
evening hours across the west as a strong wave approaches.
Forecast deep layer shear ranges from 35 to 55 knots with plenty
of CAPE. 0-1 km shear will also be fairly strong across portions
of the west. Thus, all hazards appear possible including a
tornado threat if storms can remain discrete. SPC has placed
portions of the far west in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on
their latest Day 2 Outlook. The rest of the area remains in a
Slight Risk. Severe storms may last through the overnight hours as
a forward propagating MCS.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
After storms move out of the area on Wednesday we will see a
little bit of a break in activity with slightly cooler highs. We
will see highs in the 70s and 80s on the afternoons of Wednesday
and Thursday. The next thunderstorm chances will move in during
the Friday night and Saturday time frame. Signals then point to
another active period possibly kicking off once again towards the
end of the weekend and beginning of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
VFR conditions are generally expected through the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop west
tonight with some severe storms possible across the far southwest.
This activity will move into the south central and depart to the
south overnight. The most likely terminal to see a storm will be
over KDIK but timing and exact location is still unclear. Thus
will continue to only carry vicinity thunder in the forecast at
this time. Brief IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible under any
heavier thunderstorm.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1107 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area overnight then move
southeast of the region on Tuesday. A warm front will lift
across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure
will return on Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the
south on Friday and track across the area Saturday. A trough of
low pressure will be over the region Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1045 PM Update: The sky needed a slight adjustment to include
some cloud development later tonight w/the upper low in NB. 00Z
UA showed 850mb moisture w/a weak trof just n of the border.
This feature is shown by the NBM, RAP and NAM to slide across
the region to aid in some convergence allowing for the clouds.
SREF and HREF guidance pointing to potential for some patchy
fog overnight. Decided to add this to the forecast especially
Downeast and eastern areas. Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted
to match the later conditions w/the cooldown.
Previous Discussion...
Clouds hv diminished over most of the area late this aftn
though retrograding low over the Bathurst area of NB has allowed
cu to back into nern Aroostook County. Expect this wl rmn over
the region and slowly spread back to the west. Patchy fog is
expected once again along with low clouds dvlpng along the coast
overnight. Winds should be fairly calm and cannot rule out
patchy vly fog by morning. Mins wl drop into the u40s acrs the
north but rmn in the 50s over Downeast zones.
Tomorrow wl be a quiet day with srly winds drawing in warmer and
more humid air. Temps right along the coast likely to be stuck
in the 60s with outer islands possibly struggling to get into
the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide southeast of the area Tuesday night as a
fast moving shortwave trough and associated surface warm front
approaches from just north of the Great Lakes. A moderately strong
southerly gradient will likely lift low clouds and cool marine air
north across the region Tuesday night. Showers will push into the
north late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a function of
dynamic lift and some isolated elevated convection. Showers will
taper off Wednesday evening as the warm front continues
northeast of the region. A south wind and low level moisture
will likely result in low clouds lingering much of the day
Wednesday even after the rain tapers off. Weak high pressure
will gradually build over the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Differential flow involving a southerly wind near the
surface and westerly winds aloft may allow some stray
thunderstorms to pop up late Thursday, mainly over central and
western areas. Otherwise, Thursday will be partly sunny, warm
and humid across the area as weak upper level shortwave ridging
builds over.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
It`s looking like a generally wetter pattern late this week into
early next week with several opportunities for rainfall coming as a
trough develops to our west and subtropical moisture gets pulled
north. Our focus Thursday night into Friday will be on the
trough digging to our west as a subtropical low lifts north
along the Mid- Atlantic coast. Moisture pushing north ahead of
this low may bring some showers and spotty thunderstorms across
the area Friday, mainly over the west. The forecast challenge
later Friday into Saturday will be where the subtropical low
tracks. The potential for enhanced and possibly heavy rainfall
will occur along the track of this low across the area, possibly
Friday night into Saturday if the GFS is right, or later
Saturday into Saturday evening if the ECMWF is right. A
secondary shortwave low rounding the trough and lifting up
across our area will bring another chance for some more
organized showers on Sunday. Yet another shortwave low may lift
north to enhance a chance of showers Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected this afternoon into this evening.
May see MVFR/IFR vsbys at FVE, PQI and HUL develop after 08z as
winds go calm. BGR likely to see MVFR vsbys with potential for
MVFR clouds but have opted to go SCT025 due to low confidence.
BHB seeing IFR between 05-12z in the morning. Al sites becoming
VFR after 12z with SSE winds around 5kts.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night: IFR, South wind.
Wednesday: IFR, possibly becoming MVFR north late afternoon. South
wind.
Wednesday night: MVFR to VFR north. MVFR Downeast. Light and
variable wind.
Thursday: VFR, except lower in any spotty showers. Light S wind.
Thursday night: MVFR to IFR Downeast. VFR to MVFR north. South wind.
Friday: MVFR. South wind.
Friday night: IFR Downeast in rain. MVFR becoming IFR north.
Saturday: IFR in rain. South wind.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA through tomorrow.
Patchy fog after midnight tonight will reduce visibilities to
between 1 to 3 NM.
SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas should remain below SCA through the week. Humid
air lifting north over the waters will likely result in some fog
limiting visibilities. A southerly fetch off the New England
coast through mid-week may build seas up to around 4 ft across
the offshore waters later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
A line of storms is currently moving through the MN Arrowhead as
a mid-level short wave crosses into Canada. The HRRR indicates
that this should be the main show as cloud cover is really
hampering the amount of surface destabilization making it hard to
break the cap elsewhere. Though recent satellite imagery indicates
that there are some breaks in the clouds which may be enough to
overcome that CIN. There will be a cold front which is currently
crossing into Kittson County in far NW MN, moving in tonight that
gives one more opportunity for forcing, but since the air mass
will have been worked over with this afternoon`s convection, it`s
hard to imagine it will have sufficient forcing to blossom any
more widespread convection as it moves through - thinking isolated
nature would be most likely though the WRF cores have some linear
modes to them, so I guess we`ll have to continue to watch how
this evolves. Further, since the short wave should have moved into
Canada by the time the front crosses. So, opted to drop PoPs
quite a bit for the overnight period much in line with the HREF`s
solution. Also carrying fog overnight, as skies clear. The
limiting factor will be how much wind will be left to mix - my
guess is not much and there`ll be quite a bit of fog after today`s
rainfall.
Tuesday will be drier in the post-frontal air mass where PWAT`s
fall into the 0.5" regime which should keep the area high and dry
under weak ridging. Temperatures should still be warm, but dew
points will fall into the 50`s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
After Tuesday`s weak ridging, a warm front will lift north on
Wednesday bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. In
fact, there is a colocation of high PWAT 2+", 40+ kt of deep
layer shear, 850 mb LLJ convergence, and CAPE values in excess of
3000 J/kg. This will provide the necessary ingredients for severe
weather and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding. Prime
time for this looks to be Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday
morning. I would like to see some more upper level forcing in
terms of a jet streak or short wave...there are some indications,
mainly the NAM and GFS which do position the front right entrance
region of a jet streak over the area which lends some confidence
into initiating the convection, but again I would like to see more
and stronger upper level forcing.
A cold front arrives Thursday ushering the juicy air mass to the
east, but still keeping enough instability and shear around for
some scattered shower development especially as an upper level
trough slides overhead. A dirty ridge sets up, but with a few
ripples in the flow can`t completely rule out some minor shower
activity for the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish over
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by 06Z tonight. Storms
south of DLH may move into the HYR vicinity around 01Z. Patchy fog
is expected once again during the early morning hours and should
clear out by 12-13Z timeframe. VFR conditions for Tuesday with
light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday. Overall,
winds and seas will be light and calm respectively except in and
around the thunderstorms. In the humid air mass, patchy fog is
possible especially at night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 85 63 87 / 40 10 30 50
INL 57 84 61 86 / 10 0 40 80
BRD 61 84 66 89 / 10 10 40 50
HYR 62 85 63 91 / 30 10 20 30
ASX 64 87 63 93 / 30 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms continue to slowly drift south across the area this
afternoon as outflow boundaries push out ahead. Gusty erratic
winds to 20G35KT and patchy blowing dust will be possible at all
terminals as long as storms persist. Current radar trends indicate
best TS chances to be at LRU and ELP this evening, with chances
starting to taper off at TCS and DMN. Could see brief IFR
conditions within TS. Otherwise, skies will be SCT100 BKN140-200
into the overnight and winds will generally be ELY/SELY AOB 12KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A few storms possible through this evening and mainly east of the
divide for Tuesday, then a very strong upper high will become
established over the region. This upper high will bring dry and
very hot conditions to the Borderland. Expect highs over the
lowlands to be at or above 105 degrees by Thursday and continue
through into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday...
An increase in moisture has brought 40 dewpoints and increased
instability as far east as the Rio Grande Valley. Currently, terrain
driven storms are developing over the Sacramento Mountains and the
Black Range as expected as the terrain is helping the airmass to
rise above the subsidence inversion. Like last night, gusty outflow
winds from storms that develop will blow into the lowlands. The
difference for tonight is that there is bit better available
moisture/instability for outflow winds to help lowland storm
development and deep convection. Having a look at CAMs, the HRRR and
HREF are the most aggressive with bringing isolated to scattered
storms into Las Cruces and El Paso this evening, therefore have
placed 30 pops in the lowlands. Impacts this evening: Can`t rule out
a severe storm or two. Tall, inverted V soundings show strong
outflow wind (as discussed) that may also help kick up some dust. PW
of 1.0 to 1.25" east of the Rio Grande River, with little steering
flow means that locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding may be
of concern. Small hail can`t be ruled out either. Essentially
there is no shear, so storms won`t organize. However, the outflow
boundaries may aid in storms linger into the morning.
Tuesday, the surface trough will be located through central NM,
continuing to split the surface flow. This once again means dry
conditions to the far west. Moist air to the east, creating a
similar set up tomorrow: Afternoon storms starting in the mountains
due to the upper level high`s subsidence inversion, with outflow
winds bringing storms to the lowlands. High temperatures will
continue to be above seasonal average, with 100+ in the lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Tuesday night a few storms may be lingering over the far eastern
areas of the CWA, but otherwise a dry forecast into early next
week. Upper high in recent days has been not very well defined and
some moisture trapped under it with upslope flow has lead to daily
storms over the higher terrain and some moving south onto the
lowlands east of the Rio Grande. Going through the end of the
week, this upper high will become much stronger and more
established right over the region. Drier more stable air will move
in and with H50 heights approaching 600dam, temperatures will be
reaching near record territory. Expect fairly persistent
temperatures of 103-108 degrees over the lowlands starting
Wed/Thu and continuing through Monday. Overnight lows mainly in
the 70s to lower 80s so as has been expected, a large portion of
the area will likely be in prolonged heat advisory criteria. MEX
guidance has finally started to warm highs up while NBM remained a
few degrees too cool, so bumped them up.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today and tomorrow feature increased moisture that will bring storm
chances east of the Continental Divide. Terrain based storms will
form first, bringing gusty outflow winds that will help propagate
storms into the lowlands. Overall, storm coverage will be isolated
to scattered. However, anything that forms may bring gusty winds
, lightning, and at least over the Sacs - some localized heavy
rain. Max RH recovery tonight will be 60s to the west and 70 to
the east. Wind light overall, except around storms. Tomorrow`s min
relative humidity will dip to 8-12% over the Gila Region and
AZ/NM state line, with 20s/30 to the east. Smoke ventilation will
be fair to good.
By Wednesday, storm chances will decrease as we enter a period of
very hot and dry weather. While min RH will reach below 15 percent
most days, winds will remain light. Temperatures look to reach
nearly 15 degrees above normal by next weekend.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 74 100 78 105 / 20 20 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 94 70 98 / 20 20 10 0
Las Cruces 69 99 70 102 / 20 30 0 0
Alamogordo 68 101 72 104 / 20 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 51 76 53 80 / 20 50 10 10
Truth or Consequences 70 100 74 102 / 20 10 0 0
Silver City 64 94 67 96 / 0 20 0 0
Deming 66 102 70 104 / 20 10 0 0
Lordsburg 66 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 74 101 77 104 / 20 20 10 0
Dell City 68 100 70 104 / 20 20 10 0
Fort Hancock 72 102 75 104 / 30 20 10 0
Loma Linda 71 94 72 99 / 30 30 10 0
Fabens 74 102 76 104 / 20 20 0 0
Santa Teresa 69 101 72 103 / 20 20 0 0
White Sands HQ 74 100 77 103 / 20 40 0 0
Jornada Range 68 99 70 103 / 20 20 0 0
Hatch 68 102 69 104 / 20 20 0 0
Columbus 70 102 72 104 / 20 10 0 0
Orogrande 71 99 72 103 / 20 20 0 0
Mayhill 56 86 62 91 / 20 50 10 10
Mescalero 54 87 59 91 / 20 50 10 10
Timberon 53 84 57 88 / 30 50 10 10
Winston 57 94 59 95 / 10 20 0 0
Hillsboro 64 99 66 101 / 20 30 0 0
Spaceport 65 99 71 102 / 20 20 0 0
Lake Roberts 56 95 54 96 / 0 20 0 0
Hurley 61 97 64 98 / 10 20 0 0
Cliff 56 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 64 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 63 98 66 100 / 20 20 0 0
Animas 64 102 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 63 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 65 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 63 95 66 95 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
32/33/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
957 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.UPDATE...
Minor update to the PoPs through the overnight and early morning
hours. While the general forecast is on track, have expanded the area
of 20 PoPs westward after midnight. Convection that is ongoing to the
west of San Angelo and north of Sonora may work to the southeast or
produce outflows that spark off more storms around Junction during
the early morning hours. The HRRR and Texas Tech WRF at least
indicate that some of this activity could get into the Hill Country.
Otherwise the best chance for showers and storms remain across the
Hill Country, Austin Metro, and points east as the northwest flow
aloft helps bring complex of storms down across Texas. These
complexes are all producing their own outflows which will help
dictate where precipitation forms next. This evening the convection
has all remained to the north of the area, and outflows have not been
conducive for generating additional storms.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue this afternoon across South Central Texas.
While convection has stayed away from the terminals this afternoon,
and should remain to the north and east of the terminals through the
evening several outflow boundaries around will need to be monitored
for minor wind shifts and possible convective development. With
increasing moisture in place MVFR ceilings are anticipated at SAT/SSF
by 08z. Confidence in MVFR at AUS/DRT is lower and is currently
handled by a TEMPO MVFR group at AUS and a SCT015 at DRT suggesting
the possibility of some lower cigs. Winds will remain out of the
south and southeast overnight, decreasing in speed slightly. VFR
returns tomorrow across South Central Texas by 16z. High resolution
models do show some scattered showers around AUS between 08z-12z so
have included this mention in the TEMPO group, as well as mentioning
some VCSH late tomorrow for AUS, but confidence in timing and
placement of any precipitation is low at this point.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
A weak low across North Texas and a weak boundary extending from
this low southwestward through the Hill Country and toward Del Rio
has helped to generate an MCV type feature with a line of showers
across the Hill Country and isolated light showers both out ahead of
and behind this small line. SPC has thrown in a marginal risk for
severe storms across Central Texas as there will be enough
instability, moisture, and lift in place to perhaps generate some
strong storms later this afternoon. Otherwise, it is hot across
South Central Texas, with most locations in the low to mid 90s as of
2 PM (already 101 at Del Rio and may break another record today).
Dew points around 70 along the I-35 corridor to mid 70s across the
Coastal Plains have heat index values ranging from 100 to 106 at the
moment, with heat indices maxing out in the 103 to 108 range by mid
to late afternoon.
The weak low will remain in place tonight NNE of the region as well
as the remnants of the boundary/shear axis, and an additional surge
of enhanced moisture late this evening will lead to the chance for
additional development of showers and thunderstorms through the
overnight and early Tuesday morning period, especially for Central
Texas. Some decent rainfall totals (on the order of an inch of so)
could be possible up across portions of Burnet and Williamson
Counties.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on
Tuesday as the weak low will linger across NE Texas and moisture
levels will remain elevated. High temperatures for tomorrow have
come down a degree or two from previous forecast packages, but high
temperatures will still range from the mid to upper 90s with
enhanced dew points making it another uncomfortable afternoon. Warm
and humid conditions are expected again for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Some of the convection allowing models as well as
the GFS indicate that we may see an MCS of some sort late Tuesday
night NW to W of San Antonio, but confidence in this is not
particularly high at this time (only 20 PoPs during this period
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The long term remains hot and dry. Upper ridging to our west will
dominate through the forecast period. High temperatures will likely
be greater than 100 for almost all areas starting Friday. Over the
weekend, the heat index will creep into heat advisory criteria with
Sunday being the warmest day. As we start the new week, no real
changes come into play with a hot and dry forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 77 94 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 94 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 75 90 75 95 74 / 30 30 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 80 99 80 101 79 / - - - - -
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 92 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 77 97 77 100 77 / 10 10 20 0 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 95 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 94 78 97 78 / 20 30 10 - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 96 78 98 77 / 10 10 20 - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
837 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update...
No major changes to the existing forecast, in particular the
severe weather outbreak for tomorrow.
For the most part, tomorrow morning and (most of the) afternoon
should be dry and sunny, which will help to destabilize the
atmosphere across the region. A few showers may pop up during the
late morning or the afternoon, which is covered by the existing
lower-end POPs. The Main Event begins between 4 and 5 pm (22-23z)
tomorrow as a line of storms cross into the western border of the
CWA out of Central Montana and exits the eastern border into
North Dakota roughly between 10 and 11 pm (4-5z), and hitting
Glasgow and Jordan around 7 pm (all as noted in the previous
discussion below). There is strong consensus on the timing of the
storms, as well as the mode being something linear.
HRRR and NAMNest have storms firing up in the higher terrain of
southern Montana near the Wyoming border in the middle of the
afternoon and moving northeastward, with the HRRR being more
agressive with the development and movement of these storms. HRRR
actually brings these storms, if they do in fact develop, into the
southern part of the CWA ahead of the line of storms (as noted in
the previous discussion).
Convective parameters still suggest all storm modes are on the
table tomorrow.
97
Previous discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect portions of
Northeast Montana this afternoon and evening before dying off
tonight. An isolated severe storm is possible across Prairie
County this afternoon and evening with large hail the primary
threat.
A widespread severe weather event is expected across all of
Northeast Montana Tuesday from late afternoon through the evening
hours. Storms will form across the higher terrain in central and
southwest Montana during the afternoon hours and will progress
eastward into Northeast Montana. Storms may be semi-discrete
initially as they enter Phillips and Petroleum Counties. If they
are able to remain discrete then very large hail to the size of
baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and an isolated
tornado will be possible.
Once the storms merge into one or more line segments destructive
wind gusts in excess of 70 to 80 mph will become the primary
threat. Look for this main line of storms to arrive in Phillips
and Petroleum Counties around 40-5 PM, the Glasgow area around
7 PM, and the ND border by 10 PM or so.
It is possible a few isolated storms could enter the Yellowstone
River Valley ahead of this primary line of storms during the early
evening hours. If this were to happen, all severe modes would be
possible.
An upper trough moves across the state on Wednesday with slightly
cooler and generally drier weather. A few storms are possible
near the Canadian border with the proximity of a stacked low
pressure system moving from Saskatchewan into Manitoba.
Ridge then builds north from the Desert Southwest for hot and dry
weather for the remainder of the week. Could see a few
thunderstorms on Friday as a shortwave pushes through the top of
the ridge.
-Mottice/RAE
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR, with MVFR and IFR possible Tuesday evening
due to lowered ceilings and visibilities from thunderstorms.
WINDS: E 5-10 kts tonight. SE 10-20 kts on Tuesday, except SE
10-25 kts at KGGW. S 15-25 kts shifting to the W 5-15 kts
overnight Tuesday night.
SYNOPSIS: Any lingering showers/storms this evening will quickly
move away from the TAF sites. Cumulus clouds are expected to
develop throughout the day tomorrow, with thunderstorms developing
in the late afternoon. A line of storms should pass through KGGW & KOLF
between 0 and 3z Tuesday evening, and KGDV & KSDY between 1 and 4z
Tuesday evening. This line of storms should bring strong, gusty,
erratic winds, as well as hail.
97
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
The primary forecast concerns are the chance for thunderstorms and
severe weather from late this afternoon into tonight, then from
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
The pattern at 500 mb features a ridge from off the coast of
southern CA into CO and NM. There was a trough from southwest
Canada to off the coast of northern CA. Fairly fast zonal flow for
this time of year was in place from MT and WY into the Dakotas.
We are mostly south of the stronger westerlies, and of note the
300 mb wind over KOAX this morning was calm. The atmosphere this
afternoon is fairly moist and unstable as of 2 pm. Surface
dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures
mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s. RUC initializations show
lowest 100 mb ML CAPE values mostly 1500-2500 J/kg, but effective
deep layer shear is mostly less than 25 knots. The exception to
this is in the far western parts of northeast NE back westward
across northern NE and southern SD. There should be some enhanced
lift later today and into tonight, mostly across SD but also far
northern NE.
This evening and tonight.
Some of the recent CAMs (convection allowing high resolution
models) suggest a few storms possibly from 22Z-02Z in parts of
Knox and Cedar counties that could be severe. Then there may be a
break until more storms try to build southeast from northeast NE
toward southwest IA after midnight. Will keep chance category
POPs in much of the area with marginal risk of severe storms for
later tonight. Not sure exactly how much of a severe threat there
will be after midnight, but should at least be potential for
gusty winds over 40 mph. Look for low temperatures tonight in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
A few storms could possibly linger a bit past sunrise Tuesday,
then we expect a dry period the rest of the day through Tuesday
night. Temperatures Tuesday should be just a bit warmer than
today, with highs 90 to 95. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be
around 70 to 75.
Wednesday into Thursday night.
This may be a fairly active period, with models continuing to show
fairly strong forcing moving through the region with a moderately
unstable airmass. Highest chances seem to be Wednesday night, when
some severe storms (especially in northeast NE) and heavy rain
appear possible. Some model guidances indicates potential for
pockets of over 2 inches of rain. There is still some variation
in model timing and hopefully that will get better in the next 24
hours. Highs on Wednesday should again be 90 to 95. Thursday
should be a little cooler, 85 to 90, with more cloud cover.
Friday into Monday.
We will keep some lower end thunderstorm chances going for the
period from Friday into Saturday night, but confidence is only
average. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s with
lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Currently there are ongoing thunderstorms in far northeast
Nebraska in Knox, Cedar, Antelope, and Pierce counties. They are
slowly drifting southward and it`s possible they impact KOFK. It
seems likely that storms will at least be in the vicinity.
For the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, VFR conditions
are likely to prevail. Winds to remain southerly between 5 to 10
kts.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Miller
AVIATION...Fajman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1019 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
For the mid-evening update, removed or lessened measurable PoPs
from most of the WFO PAH forecast area for the rest of tonight and
amended PoPs in the 16z (10 am CDT) Tuesday to 02z (9 pm CDT
Tuesday night) Wednesday time frame.
The NAMNest and HRRR guidance combination has performed rather
well in both PoP placement and areal coverage of QPF (rainfall
amounts) the last 48 hours and verified well versus area radar
rainfall coverage.
Upper level low has been moving slowly northeast this morning
through this evening across western Tennessee into
western/central/Kentucky. The instability with the shear
zone/moisture ahead of the low helped to kick off the convection
near Christian and Todd counties this morning, while this
afternoon and evening convection in northwest and north central
Tennessee appears to be aided by the low itself as it moves
northeast. This feature will be less of a contributing factor as
the night goes on.
However, the shear zone along and ahead of the northwest flow
ahead of a building ridge in the west help support instability and
mixing over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this
afternoon. As this shear zone moved east of the favored broad low
level (southeast winds at 700/850 mb) around the east-west
oriented low pressure axis stretching from Texas to Georgia at
00z Tuesday, most of the lift moved away from the mean moisture
axis, limiting any additional convection not aided by daytime
insolation.
Short range guidance suggests that the upper ridge will not be
strong enough to be maintained over the area, as low pressure
from Texas moves slowly east-northeast through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valley by mid-week. However, this
eastward movement will be slow and somewhat awkward in terms of
moisture convergence and lift.
As net result, shower and thunderstorm activity will be again be
diurnally driven on Tuesday (mainly during the afternoon and
evening), with the best development along weak shear zones and
slightly cooler temperatures aloft within those zones in places
where low level moisture convergence can be maximized. Where
surface parcels, heated by the sun, can intercept these zones,
slow moving thunderstorms can be generated within that zone, until
either the instability moves away or the moisture pool is
exhausted. At this point in time it appears the southwest
Illinois, southeast Missouri and the southern west Kentucky
Pennyrile will see the best chances for rain Tuesday afternoon and
evening.
When preparing the gridded forecast, attempted not to broadbrush
PoPs, but focus on the best areas of lift, instability, and
moisture tonight and Tuesday. As mentioned earlier in the
discussion, the NAMNest and HRRR seem to be modeling the
convective potential and rainfall coverage quite well. Adjusted
cloud cover, temperatures, dewpoints, winds, and PoPs to reflect
this potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Afternoon diurnally driven thunderstorms will diminish through the
early evening. Otherwise expect a repeat again Tuesday with similar
thunderstorm areal coverage given no real changes in atmospheric
profiles. Somewhat deeper moisture will remain over western KY,
plus there may be leftover outflow boundaries from previous
convection, so coverage may be slightly more there again Tuesday,
as well over other areas in the vicinity of previous convection.
While there is no organized severe thunderstorm potential, still
expect storms that develop will be outflow dominated, with an
isolated storm here or there having microburst potential. Heavy
downpours, capable of isolated flooding, will also be possible. In
fact, given the weak steering wind fields and resultant slow
storm movement, flash flooding potential will be greater than
usual.
Very little change for high temperatures as Tuesday will
bring another day of max temps from around 90 to perhaps 93-94
over parts of SE MO. Slightly higher surface dewpoints Tuesday
will generate slightly higher Heat Indices with values topping out
in the mid 90s to near 100. Lows each night will be in the
vicinity of the surface dewpoints, generally lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 2400 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
Continued low confidence in long range forecast. As ridge
retrogrades slowly west, the area comes into a northwest flow regime
by the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday will continue to offer hot
and muggy conditions and heat of the day thunderstorms.
On Friday a cool front/wind shift approaches the area. This feature
will offer a focusing mechanism for storms to develop along and
near. Thus there should be a decent chance of an organized rainfall
event Friday into Saturday morning. After Friday, the northwest flow
should be setup and thus waves of energy are forecast to move over
the area and with them will come chances of rain. Timing of these
features will be unknown until we are much closer in time.
What is sure is that Wednesday and Thursday will be hot and humid.
Heat indices will flirt with 100 degrees both afternoons. After
Thursday, the cool front enters the picture, humidities drop just
enough to keep us below the 100 degree heat indices through the
end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
For the 00z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept an early evening
mention of vicinity thunderstorms near the KCGI location, as there
was a greater probability of thunderstorm activity in and near
this location through at least 02z Tuesday.
There is the potential for mid to late afternoon thunderstorm
activity in and near all of the TAF sites on Tuesday, but the
probability remains low enough not to warrant inclusion during the
last 3 hours of the forecast period.
Added MVFR fog between the 06z-12z time frame for KMVN, KEVV, and
KOWB, with some mention of patches of IFR visibilities at KMVN.
Most of these lowered visibilities will be associated with better
surface moisture convergence in and near a weak surface
boundary/wind shift line over parts of southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RLS
LONG TERM...SE
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
928 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020
.UPDATE...
A weak disturbance will bring increased rain chances across the
I-20 corridor after midnight. Isolated flash flooding across
saturated areas will remain the biggest threat during the predawn
hours. Forecast remains in good shape at this time with no
significant updates needed at this time. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/
AVIATION...
VCTS conditions expected through the evening hours. However, a
disturbance pushing into east Texas will bring another round of
overnight convection mainly across the I-20 terminals sites. MVFR
conditions possible around daybreak with lingering convection
forecast to dissipate. Conditions to improve to VFR by 07/15Z with
VCTS conditions again possible with daytime heating. Light and
variable winds overnight to become southwest at 10 knots on
Tuesday. /05/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/
The latest RAP mid-level analysis show a 500mb weak short wave along
the TX/OK border with short wave energy slowly rotating south-
southeastward into East Texas. This feature is ever-so-slowly
edging eastward. At the surface, a weak 1010mb low remains north
of the DFW metro with a poorly-defined weak surface trough
extending eastward from this feature into East Texas and northern
Louisiana. With weak cyclonic flow observed in the 500mb-sfc
layer near the wave, this area of weak low pressure is aiding in
development of showers and thunderstorms in a very moist
environment with PWAT values in the 2-2.25" range. Instability has
increased to the 2000-2500 J/kg range for locations which haven`t
already seen showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest
thunderstorms have been most focused in 3 areas, a line in East
Texas, storms in southwestern/south-central Arkansas and another
area in the ArkLaMiss. 2-3" rainfall in 1-2 hrs has been observed
earlier this afternoon and led to flash flooding in Texarkana.
While showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in
intensity this evening with the loss of heating, the wave to the
west of the area will continue to slowly edge eastward and
provide forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms
overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible given the
moist environment. With this in mind, kept 30-40% POPs overnight.
A similar pattern will be in place on Tuesday as the cyclonic flow
with the weak low shifts further eastward. Showers and
thunderstorms will again increase in intensity tomorrow afternoon
with PWAT values above 2" contributing to a localized flash
flooding threat. Tuesday night, showers and thunderstorms will
again decrease in coverage and intensity, but linger overnight.
Temperatures are closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM)
through the short term with highs tomorrow in the mid 80s and lows
in the lower to mid 70s across the area. /04-Woodrum/
LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/
More scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as
a weak shortwave trough moves across the area. As usual,
convection will generally be much more widespread during the day
with peak diurnal instability before slowly diminishing during the
nighttime hours. Weak steering flow aloft and PWATs near or above
2 inches will continue to promote slow-moving and efficient rain
producing storms, which could pose a threat for isolated flash
flooding.
By Thursday, the shortwave trough will move east and an upper ridge
centered over New Mexico will expand eastward. At the same time, the
center of a surface ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will move closer to
the Southeast Louisiana coast. With a lack of large scale forcing,
rain chances will become much more limited to isolated sea breeze
activity. Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast
periphery of the ridge could steer convective complexes towards
pretty much everyday from Thursday through Sunday. However, the MCSs
will likely be decaying by the time the reach our area, if they make
it this far south at all. Therefore, slight chance to low-end chance
PoPs will remain in the forecast, but mainly for portions of
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.
Otherwise, as rain chances taper off, the heat will gradually build.
The recent rains should help temper the warming trend somewhat, but
evaporation of the moisture combined with low-level southerly flow
off the Gulf of Mexico will result in oppressive humidity. Heat
Advisories will be likely by the end of the week, and Excessive Heat
Warnings may be needed by the weekend as peak heat index values
exceed 110 degrees F.
CN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 85 74 89 / 60 70 40 70
MLU 75 87 73 89 / 50 80 40 70
DEQ 72 86 71 89 / 30 60 30 50
TXK 73 84 73 86 / 40 70 40 60
ELD 73 87 72 88 / 40 80 40 70
TYR 74 82 74 89 / 60 70 40 30
GGG 73 84 73 90 / 60 70 40 40
LFK 75 87 75 92 / 50 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
05/04/09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Mon Jul 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Very hot daytime temperatures this week with record or
near record temperatures likely by next weekend. Well below
average moisture for July with just enough for a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly near the international border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...We`re seeing another modest moisture push into the
lower deserts from the gulf, with the Yuma dewpoint holding close
to 50 instead of mixing lower this afternoon. The current KYUX
wind profile shows a southerly flow up to 4k feet. The HRRR takes
this and filters some of it eastward over the next 12 hours. It
also continues to suggest potential organized development south
of the border this evening, subsequently pushing an outflow into
our neck of the woods Tuesday morning. It`s one of those sneaky
moisture situations. We won`t have any big blowout monsoon days
with the current thermodynamics in the temperature column and
moisture still below average, but the HRRR showing a few modest
buildups this afternoon, followed by a few thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon is entirely reasonable.
Otherwise, we begin to focus on excessive heat issues by this
weekend. NAEFS means suggest near record to record 500mb heights
Saturday through Monday or Tuesday, and thickness regression
analysis supports record highs. An Excessive Heat Watch has been
issued for Saturday through Monday, although it may not be quite
there for Monday as we see a potential moisture push for mid
month.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon
mainly near International border and favoring KOLS. However, the
chance of measurable rainfall is only 10 percent. Otherwise, FEW-
BKN clouds at times KTUS vicinity ewd/swd, and mainly SKC
northwest of KTUS into Tuesday morning. Surface wind KSAD valley
area wly/nwly 12-18 kts with gusts near 25 kts this afternoon and
evening. Surface wind elsewhere variable in direction mainly under
12 kts, although some afternoon wly/nwly gusts 15-20 kts may
occur. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Below average moisture conditions into next
weekend. The best chance of rainfall is Wednesday afternoon when
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
southeast to south of Tucson. A few thunderstorms may occur as far
north as the Tucson metro area Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise,
the main forecast emphasis is very hot daytime temperatures, with
the hottest temperatures likely next weekend. The 20-foot winds
will be mainly terrain driven at less than 15 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...Forecast and record high temps next Friday into Sunday
Date July 10 July 11 July 12
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Int`l Airport 107 109/2019 110 111/1958 113 110/2005
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
evening for AZZ501>506-509.
&&
$$
Meyer
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