Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/07/20

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1012 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain centered along the mid Atlantic coast today, before moving farther offshore on Tuesday. Low pressure moves from the deep south to the Carolina coast on Wednesday, and slowly tracks northeast to the mid Atlantic coast through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM EDT Monday... An area of showers/tstms lingers over the MD Ern Shore this evening, with mainly partly cloudy to mostly clear and dry conditions elsewhere. The convective intensity is waning late this evening, and at this point the main threats are heavy rain and lightning. A few localized stronger wind gusts are possible through 11 pm. Otherwise, PoPs gradually diminish overnight. However, the HRRR has been consistent showing some lingering showers across the MD Ern Shore overnight, so 30-40% PoPs run through 09z, with 20-30% 09-12z. Warm and humid tonight with lows in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... On Tue, the trough aloft will be offshore of the Delmarva coast and overall conditions in the morning should be partly to mostly sunny w/ dry conditions. The overall mid level pattern will feature a developing weak trough over the TN Valley and deep south, with a weak ridge over the local area (especially near the coast). Latest 12Z/06 GFS/NAM/ECMWF generally remain in good agreement that the deeper moisture will stay S of the local area and therefore PoPs will again be mainly diurnal with just scattered 30-40% coverage across south central VA/interior NE NC and mostly 20% or lower elsewhere (did maintain ~30% PoP on the MD eastern shore for some seabreeze induced tstms in the aftn). Highs will be slightly cooler compared to Mon, primarily in the mid 80s to around 90F at the immediate coast and over most of NE NC, with lower 90s elsewhere. It will continue to be humid however. From Tue night into early Wed, the low moves ENE to near the SC coast, and then is expected to linger near the border of NC/SC coast during Wed with weak steering flow aloft. Have at least some PoPs across the southern zones all night Tue night, then spreading N during Wed, with likely PoPs Wed aftn over the S. It will be rather humid Wed with dew pts remaining in the lower to mid 70s even through the aftn hrs, but highs will be slightly cooler (especially in the S) due to more clouds, ranging from the lower to mid 80s S to the upper 80s/near 90 N. The potential for localized flash flooding increases Wed in the south where WPC has a day 3 Marginal for excessive rain, and all zones Thu as PWAT values surge to 1.75"+ along with the weak steering flow. Will have high chc to likely PoPs Thu with highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... After the coastal low moves northeast of the area, expect a broad upper trough to settle in across the eastern part of the United States through the weekend. This will keep a residual surface trough across the area as well leading to the typical summertime scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms. Best chances for this would be Friday and again Saturday with a little more upper moisture but each day will have chances for showers/storms. Temperatures seasonable generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Monday... A large cluster of tstms is located across NE MD and nrn DE as of 00z. This activity is expected to drift SE over the next few hours, and potentially affects SBY between 02-05z. This will bring the potential for MVFR or IFR conditions, primarily in vsby, and locally strong wind gusts. A chc of showers will then linger at SBY through 09z. Otherwise, there is only a slight chc of a shower or tstm through 06z at RIC/PHF, with mainly dry conditions at ORF/ECG. The wind will remain southerly tonight outside of any showers/tstms, with speeds of 5-8kt. Mostly sunny Tuesday with SCT aftn CU and a S to SSE wind of 8-10kt. There is a 20% chc of aftn showers/tstms at most sites, and ~30% at SBY. Increased coverage of showers/tstms is expected Wednesday through Saturday as low pressure is expected to lift NE along the coastal Carolinas and Mid Atlantic coast. Patchy morning stratus is also possible Thursday through Saturday as low-level moisture increases. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Generally south winds tonight through Wednesday with the broad high off the coast and weak low pressure over the southeastern states. May be a few hours late this afternoon into this evening with gusts of up to 20 kt in the bay and coastal waters, but these gusts should diminish after midnight. The aforementioned southeast low is expected to move off the Carolina coast later Wed night. This will allow winds to turn onshore and increase. A great deal of uncertainty of the exact track and timing of the low itself, but there will likely be a period of small craft advisory conditions at some point Wednesday night into Thursday. The low will move northeast of the area by Friday, although a lingering trough will continue. As such, winds will briefly turn northwest on Thursday but then shift back south on Friday. Seas will be 1-2 ft in the bay tonight into Wed and 2-3 ft over the open waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... Will be issuing another Coastal Flood Statement for Bayside of the MD eastern shore for marginal/nuisance tidal flooding with the upcoming high tide later tonight/early Tue AM due to the persistent southerly flow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MRD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
917 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Will drop the severe thunderstorm watch across the far southwest with this product issuance, and remove severe wording as the main threat will remain to our south across South Dakota. Plenty of shear though we lack decent MLCAPE. Updated POPs again based on radar and near term model guidance. UPDATE Issued at 804 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Quick update to adjust POPs based on latest radar and near term trends. Broken line of showers and storms now over western ND. Models not in sync so precip chances this evening were challenging to forecast. Sided with the last couple runs of the HRRR which seemed to best depict what is happening now, and also broadbrushed a bit for the uncertainty. Kept SVR in the grids for mainly the west central/southwest and far south, though the best severe potential will definitely be in SD here on out. The watch continues with this product issuance. UPDATE Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Still a bit of a wait and see game with regards to severe weather. Storms have tried to get going across the southwest, but have been struggling, potentially dealing with some inhibition in the mixed layer. MLCAPE is also quite a bit weaker than SBCAPE. Mid-level lapse rates have been fairly weak but continue to steepen across southern Montana and northern Wyoming. These steeper lapse rates and stronger MLCAPE should nudge into the southwest as the stronger mid-level wave approaches. The latest CAM solutions are a mixed bag, but the general thought seems to show a later initiation time (00z to 03z) for some stronger cells to get going. Thus, the conditional threat remains if said cells do develop or if the Montana cells can sustain themselves as they reach our border. No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Quick update to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Slope, Bowman, and Adams counties across the far southwest. Storms will continue to increase in intensity and in coverage of the next couple of hours. While the best shear will remain close to the South Dakota border, a few storms capable of hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in the watch area. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Two areas of isolated thunderstorms in the early going this afternoon. One is across the James River valley and another is across the far southwest. Per SPC mesoanalysis, little capping is present for surface based parcels and the southern half of the state is currently ranging from 1500 to 2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Some MLCIN is still present across the far southwest, which may be keeping the storms there from developing further at this time. As numerous subtle shortwaves approach from Montana, storms should continue to develop this afternoon and evening along and north of a residual frontal boundary extending from the southern James River valley into northwestern South Dakota. At the moment, effective shear is somewhat lacking but should increase to the 35 to 45 knot range as the better mid level winds approach across the southern half of the state. The best low and deep layer shear will reside close to the South Dakota border. A mixture of multicell modes and some supercells are likely by late afternoon and into the evening as storms track from southwestern North Dakota to south central. These storms may produce very large hail up to golf ball size and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. As better effective storm relative helicity and deep shear approaches the area tonight, we may see a brief window for a tornado or two near the residual frontal boundary if storms can remain discrete. Storms will exit into South Dakota overnight. Severe thunderstorms will be possible once again on Tuesday. Expect mostly dry conditions for much of the day. We probably won`t be seeing any height falls until the late afternoon or evening hours across the west as a strong wave approaches. Forecast deep layer shear ranges from 35 to 55 knots with plenty of CAPE. 0-1 km shear will also be fairly strong across portions of the west. Thus, all hazards appear possible including a tornado threat if storms can remain discrete. SPC has placed portions of the far west in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on their latest Day 2 Outlook. The rest of the area remains in a Slight Risk. Severe storms may last through the overnight hours as a forward propagating MCS. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 After storms move out of the area on Wednesday we will see a little bit of a break in activity with slightly cooler highs. We will see highs in the 70s and 80s on the afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday. The next thunderstorm chances will move in during the Friday night and Saturday time frame. Signals then point to another active period possibly kicking off once again towards the end of the weekend and beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop west tonight with some severe storms possible across the far southwest. This activity will move into the south central and depart to the south overnight. The most likely terminal to see a storm will be over KDIK but timing and exact location is still unclear. Thus will continue to only carry vicinity thunder in the forecast at this time. Brief IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible under any heavier thunderstorm. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...ZH AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1107 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area overnight then move southeast of the region on Tuesday. A warm front will lift across the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will return on Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the south on Friday and track across the area Saturday. A trough of low pressure will be over the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1045 PM Update: The sky needed a slight adjustment to include some cloud development later tonight w/the upper low in NB. 00Z UA showed 850mb moisture w/a weak trof just n of the border. This feature is shown by the NBM, RAP and NAM to slide across the region to aid in some convergence allowing for the clouds. SREF and HREF guidance pointing to potential for some patchy fog overnight. Decided to add this to the forecast especially Downeast and eastern areas. Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to match the later conditions w/the cooldown. Previous Discussion... Clouds hv diminished over most of the area late this aftn though retrograding low over the Bathurst area of NB has allowed cu to back into nern Aroostook County. Expect this wl rmn over the region and slowly spread back to the west. Patchy fog is expected once again along with low clouds dvlpng along the coast overnight. Winds should be fairly calm and cannot rule out patchy vly fog by morning. Mins wl drop into the u40s acrs the north but rmn in the 50s over Downeast zones. Tomorrow wl be a quiet day with srly winds drawing in warmer and more humid air. Temps right along the coast likely to be stuck in the 60s with outer islands possibly struggling to get into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will slide southeast of the area Tuesday night as a fast moving shortwave trough and associated surface warm front approaches from just north of the Great Lakes. A moderately strong southerly gradient will likely lift low clouds and cool marine air north across the region Tuesday night. Showers will push into the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a function of dynamic lift and some isolated elevated convection. Showers will taper off Wednesday evening as the warm front continues northeast of the region. A south wind and low level moisture will likely result in low clouds lingering much of the day Wednesday even after the rain tapers off. Weak high pressure will gradually build over the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Differential flow involving a southerly wind near the surface and westerly winds aloft may allow some stray thunderstorms to pop up late Thursday, mainly over central and western areas. Otherwise, Thursday will be partly sunny, warm and humid across the area as weak upper level shortwave ridging builds over. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... It`s looking like a generally wetter pattern late this week into early next week with several opportunities for rainfall coming as a trough develops to our west and subtropical moisture gets pulled north. Our focus Thursday night into Friday will be on the trough digging to our west as a subtropical low lifts north along the Mid- Atlantic coast. Moisture pushing north ahead of this low may bring some showers and spotty thunderstorms across the area Friday, mainly over the west. The forecast challenge later Friday into Saturday will be where the subtropical low tracks. The potential for enhanced and possibly heavy rainfall will occur along the track of this low across the area, possibly Friday night into Saturday if the GFS is right, or later Saturday into Saturday evening if the ECMWF is right. A secondary shortwave low rounding the trough and lifting up across our area will bring another chance for some more organized showers on Sunday. Yet another shortwave low may lift north to enhance a chance of showers Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected this afternoon into this evening. May see MVFR/IFR vsbys at FVE, PQI and HUL develop after 08z as winds go calm. BGR likely to see MVFR vsbys with potential for MVFR clouds but have opted to go SCT025 due to low confidence. BHB seeing IFR between 05-12z in the morning. Al sites becoming VFR after 12z with SSE winds around 5kts. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night: IFR, South wind. Wednesday: IFR, possibly becoming MVFR north late afternoon. South wind. Wednesday night: MVFR to VFR north. MVFR Downeast. Light and variable wind. Thursday: VFR, except lower in any spotty showers. Light S wind. Thursday night: MVFR to IFR Downeast. VFR to MVFR north. South wind. Friday: MVFR. South wind. Friday night: IFR Downeast in rain. MVFR becoming IFR north. Saturday: IFR in rain. South wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA through tomorrow. Patchy fog after midnight tonight will reduce visibilities to between 1 to 3 NM. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas should remain below SCA through the week. Humid air lifting north over the waters will likely result in some fog limiting visibilities. A southerly fetch off the New England coast through mid-week may build seas up to around 4 ft across the offshore waters later Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 A line of storms is currently moving through the MN Arrowhead as a mid-level short wave crosses into Canada. The HRRR indicates that this should be the main show as cloud cover is really hampering the amount of surface destabilization making it hard to break the cap elsewhere. Though recent satellite imagery indicates that there are some breaks in the clouds which may be enough to overcome that CIN. There will be a cold front which is currently crossing into Kittson County in far NW MN, moving in tonight that gives one more opportunity for forcing, but since the air mass will have been worked over with this afternoon`s convection, it`s hard to imagine it will have sufficient forcing to blossom any more widespread convection as it moves through - thinking isolated nature would be most likely though the WRF cores have some linear modes to them, so I guess we`ll have to continue to watch how this evolves. Further, since the short wave should have moved into Canada by the time the front crosses. So, opted to drop PoPs quite a bit for the overnight period much in line with the HREF`s solution. Also carrying fog overnight, as skies clear. The limiting factor will be how much wind will be left to mix - my guess is not much and there`ll be quite a bit of fog after today`s rainfall. Tuesday will be drier in the post-frontal air mass where PWAT`s fall into the 0.5" regime which should keep the area high and dry under weak ridging. Temperatures should still be warm, but dew points will fall into the 50`s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 After Tuesday`s weak ridging, a warm front will lift north on Wednesday bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a colocation of high PWAT 2+", 40+ kt of deep layer shear, 850 mb LLJ convergence, and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg. This will provide the necessary ingredients for severe weather and heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding. Prime time for this looks to be Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. I would like to see some more upper level forcing in terms of a jet streak or short wave...there are some indications, mainly the NAM and GFS which do position the front right entrance region of a jet streak over the area which lends some confidence into initiating the convection, but again I would like to see more and stronger upper level forcing. A cold front arrives Thursday ushering the juicy air mass to the east, but still keeping enough instability and shear around for some scattered shower development especially as an upper level trough slides overhead. A dirty ridge sets up, but with a few ripples in the flow can`t completely rule out some minor shower activity for the remainder of the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by 06Z tonight. Storms south of DLH may move into the HYR vicinity around 01Z. Patchy fog is expected once again during the early morning hours and should clear out by 12-13Z timeframe. VFR conditions for Tuesday with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday. Overall, winds and seas will be light and calm respectively except in and around the thunderstorms. In the humid air mass, patchy fog is possible especially at night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 85 63 87 / 40 10 30 50 INL 57 84 61 86 / 10 0 40 80 BRD 61 84 66 89 / 10 10 40 50 HYR 62 85 63 91 / 30 10 20 30 ASX 64 87 63 93 / 30 10 20 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolfe LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Wolfe
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 ...UPDATED AVIATION... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Thunderstorms continue to slowly drift south across the area this afternoon as outflow boundaries push out ahead. Gusty erratic winds to 20G35KT and patchy blowing dust will be possible at all terminals as long as storms persist. Current radar trends indicate best TS chances to be at LRU and ELP this evening, with chances starting to taper off at TCS and DMN. Could see brief IFR conditions within TS. Otherwise, skies will be SCT100 BKN140-200 into the overnight and winds will generally be ELY/SELY AOB 12KT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A few storms possible through this evening and mainly east of the divide for Tuesday, then a very strong upper high will become established over the region. This upper high will bring dry and very hot conditions to the Borderland. Expect highs over the lowlands to be at or above 105 degrees by Thursday and continue through into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday... An increase in moisture has brought 40 dewpoints and increased instability as far east as the Rio Grande Valley. Currently, terrain driven storms are developing over the Sacramento Mountains and the Black Range as expected as the terrain is helping the airmass to rise above the subsidence inversion. Like last night, gusty outflow winds from storms that develop will blow into the lowlands. The difference for tonight is that there is bit better available moisture/instability for outflow winds to help lowland storm development and deep convection. Having a look at CAMs, the HRRR and HREF are the most aggressive with bringing isolated to scattered storms into Las Cruces and El Paso this evening, therefore have placed 30 pops in the lowlands. Impacts this evening: Can`t rule out a severe storm or two. Tall, inverted V soundings show strong outflow wind (as discussed) that may also help kick up some dust. PW of 1.0 to 1.25" east of the Rio Grande River, with little steering flow means that locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding may be of concern. Small hail can`t be ruled out either. Essentially there is no shear, so storms won`t organize. However, the outflow boundaries may aid in storms linger into the morning. Tuesday, the surface trough will be located through central NM, continuing to split the surface flow. This once again means dry conditions to the far west. Moist air to the east, creating a similar set up tomorrow: Afternoon storms starting in the mountains due to the upper level high`s subsidence inversion, with outflow winds bringing storms to the lowlands. High temperatures will continue to be above seasonal average, with 100+ in the lowlands. && .LONG TERM... Tuesday night a few storms may be lingering over the far eastern areas of the CWA, but otherwise a dry forecast into early next week. Upper high in recent days has been not very well defined and some moisture trapped under it with upslope flow has lead to daily storms over the higher terrain and some moving south onto the lowlands east of the Rio Grande. Going through the end of the week, this upper high will become much stronger and more established right over the region. Drier more stable air will move in and with H50 heights approaching 600dam, temperatures will be reaching near record territory. Expect fairly persistent temperatures of 103-108 degrees over the lowlands starting Wed/Thu and continuing through Monday. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s to lower 80s so as has been expected, a large portion of the area will likely be in prolonged heat advisory criteria. MEX guidance has finally started to warm highs up while NBM remained a few degrees too cool, so bumped them up. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today and tomorrow feature increased moisture that will bring storm chances east of the Continental Divide. Terrain based storms will form first, bringing gusty outflow winds that will help propagate storms into the lowlands. Overall, storm coverage will be isolated to scattered. However, anything that forms may bring gusty winds , lightning, and at least over the Sacs - some localized heavy rain. Max RH recovery tonight will be 60s to the west and 70 to the east. Wind light overall, except around storms. Tomorrow`s min relative humidity will dip to 8-12% over the Gila Region and AZ/NM state line, with 20s/30 to the east. Smoke ventilation will be fair to good. By Wednesday, storm chances will decrease as we enter a period of very hot and dry weather. While min RH will reach below 15 percent most days, winds will remain light. Temperatures look to reach nearly 15 degrees above normal by next weekend. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 100 78 105 / 20 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 94 70 98 / 20 20 10 0 Las Cruces 69 99 70 102 / 20 30 0 0 Alamogordo 68 101 72 104 / 20 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 76 53 80 / 20 50 10 10 Truth or Consequences 70 100 74 102 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 64 94 67 96 / 0 20 0 0 Deming 66 102 70 104 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 66 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 101 77 104 / 20 20 10 0 Dell City 68 100 70 104 / 20 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 72 102 75 104 / 30 20 10 0 Loma Linda 71 94 72 99 / 30 30 10 0 Fabens 74 102 76 104 / 20 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 101 72 103 / 20 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 100 77 103 / 20 40 0 0 Jornada Range 68 99 70 103 / 20 20 0 0 Hatch 68 102 69 104 / 20 20 0 0 Columbus 70 102 72 104 / 20 10 0 0 Orogrande 71 99 72 103 / 20 20 0 0 Mayhill 56 86 62 91 / 20 50 10 10 Mescalero 54 87 59 91 / 20 50 10 10 Timberon 53 84 57 88 / 30 50 10 10 Winston 57 94 59 95 / 10 20 0 0 Hillsboro 64 99 66 101 / 20 30 0 0 Spaceport 65 99 71 102 / 20 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 95 54 96 / 0 20 0 0 Hurley 61 97 64 98 / 10 20 0 0 Cliff 56 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 63 98 66 100 / 20 20 0 0 Animas 64 102 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 95 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 32/33/26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
957 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .UPDATE... Minor update to the PoPs through the overnight and early morning hours. While the general forecast is on track, have expanded the area of 20 PoPs westward after midnight. Convection that is ongoing to the west of San Angelo and north of Sonora may work to the southeast or produce outflows that spark off more storms around Junction during the early morning hours. The HRRR and Texas Tech WRF at least indicate that some of this activity could get into the Hill Country. Otherwise the best chance for showers and storms remain across the Hill Country, Austin Metro, and points east as the northwest flow aloft helps bring complex of storms down across Texas. These complexes are all producing their own outflows which will help dictate where precipitation forms next. This evening the convection has all remained to the north of the area, and outflows have not been conducive for generating additional storms. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ AVIATION... VFR conditions continue this afternoon across South Central Texas. While convection has stayed away from the terminals this afternoon, and should remain to the north and east of the terminals through the evening several outflow boundaries around will need to be monitored for minor wind shifts and possible convective development. With increasing moisture in place MVFR ceilings are anticipated at SAT/SSF by 08z. Confidence in MVFR at AUS/DRT is lower and is currently handled by a TEMPO MVFR group at AUS and a SCT015 at DRT suggesting the possibility of some lower cigs. Winds will remain out of the south and southeast overnight, decreasing in speed slightly. VFR returns tomorrow across South Central Texas by 16z. High resolution models do show some scattered showers around AUS between 08z-12z so have included this mention in the TEMPO group, as well as mentioning some VCSH late tomorrow for AUS, but confidence in timing and placement of any precipitation is low at this point. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)... A weak low across North Texas and a weak boundary extending from this low southwestward through the Hill Country and toward Del Rio has helped to generate an MCV type feature with a line of showers across the Hill Country and isolated light showers both out ahead of and behind this small line. SPC has thrown in a marginal risk for severe storms across Central Texas as there will be enough instability, moisture, and lift in place to perhaps generate some strong storms later this afternoon. Otherwise, it is hot across South Central Texas, with most locations in the low to mid 90s as of 2 PM (already 101 at Del Rio and may break another record today). Dew points around 70 along the I-35 corridor to mid 70s across the Coastal Plains have heat index values ranging from 100 to 106 at the moment, with heat indices maxing out in the 103 to 108 range by mid to late afternoon. The weak low will remain in place tonight NNE of the region as well as the remnants of the boundary/shear axis, and an additional surge of enhanced moisture late this evening will lead to the chance for additional development of showers and thunderstorms through the overnight and early Tuesday morning period, especially for Central Texas. Some decent rainfall totals (on the order of an inch of so) could be possible up across portions of Burnet and Williamson Counties. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Tuesday as the weak low will linger across NE Texas and moisture levels will remain elevated. High temperatures for tomorrow have come down a degree or two from previous forecast packages, but high temperatures will still range from the mid to upper 90s with enhanced dew points making it another uncomfortable afternoon. Warm and humid conditions are expected again for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some of the convection allowing models as well as the GFS indicate that we may see an MCS of some sort late Tuesday night NW to W of San Antonio, but confidence in this is not particularly high at this time (only 20 PoPs during this period LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)... The long term remains hot and dry. Upper ridging to our west will dominate through the forecast period. High temperatures will likely be greater than 100 for almost all areas starting Friday. Over the weekend, the heat index will creep into heat advisory criteria with Sunday being the warmest day. As we start the new week, no real changes come into play with a hot and dry forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 94 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 94 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 - 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 90 75 95 74 / 30 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 99 80 101 79 / - - - - - Georgetown Muni Airport 77 92 77 96 77 / 30 30 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 97 77 100 77 / 10 10 20 0 - San Marcos Muni Airport 77 95 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 94 78 97 78 / 20 30 10 - 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 96 78 98 77 / 10 10 20 - 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 97 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway Long-Term...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
837 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .DISCUSSION... Evening update... No major changes to the existing forecast, in particular the severe weather outbreak for tomorrow. For the most part, tomorrow morning and (most of the) afternoon should be dry and sunny, which will help to destabilize the atmosphere across the region. A few showers may pop up during the late morning or the afternoon, which is covered by the existing lower-end POPs. The Main Event begins between 4 and 5 pm (22-23z) tomorrow as a line of storms cross into the western border of the CWA out of Central Montana and exits the eastern border into North Dakota roughly between 10 and 11 pm (4-5z), and hitting Glasgow and Jordan around 7 pm (all as noted in the previous discussion below). There is strong consensus on the timing of the storms, as well as the mode being something linear. HRRR and NAMNest have storms firing up in the higher terrain of southern Montana near the Wyoming border in the middle of the afternoon and moving northeastward, with the HRRR being more agressive with the development and movement of these storms. HRRR actually brings these storms, if they do in fact develop, into the southern part of the CWA ahead of the line of storms (as noted in the previous discussion). Convective parameters still suggest all storm modes are on the table tomorrow. 97 Previous discussion... Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect portions of Northeast Montana this afternoon and evening before dying off tonight. An isolated severe storm is possible across Prairie County this afternoon and evening with large hail the primary threat. A widespread severe weather event is expected across all of Northeast Montana Tuesday from late afternoon through the evening hours. Storms will form across the higher terrain in central and southwest Montana during the afternoon hours and will progress eastward into Northeast Montana. Storms may be semi-discrete initially as they enter Phillips and Petroleum Counties. If they are able to remain discrete then very large hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and an isolated tornado will be possible. Once the storms merge into one or more line segments destructive wind gusts in excess of 70 to 80 mph will become the primary threat. Look for this main line of storms to arrive in Phillips and Petroleum Counties around 40-5 PM, the Glasgow area around 7 PM, and the ND border by 10 PM or so. It is possible a few isolated storms could enter the Yellowstone River Valley ahead of this primary line of storms during the early evening hours. If this were to happen, all severe modes would be possible. An upper trough moves across the state on Wednesday with slightly cooler and generally drier weather. A few storms are possible near the Canadian border with the proximity of a stacked low pressure system moving from Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Ridge then builds north from the Desert Southwest for hot and dry weather for the remainder of the week. Could see a few thunderstorms on Friday as a shortwave pushes through the top of the ridge. -Mottice/RAE && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR, with MVFR and IFR possible Tuesday evening due to lowered ceilings and visibilities from thunderstorms. WINDS: E 5-10 kts tonight. SE 10-20 kts on Tuesday, except SE 10-25 kts at KGGW. S 15-25 kts shifting to the W 5-15 kts overnight Tuesday night. SYNOPSIS: Any lingering showers/storms this evening will quickly move away from the TAF sites. Cumulus clouds are expected to develop throughout the day tomorrow, with thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon. A line of storms should pass through KGGW & KOLF between 0 and 3z Tuesday evening, and KGDV & KSDY between 1 and 4z Tuesday evening. This line of storms should bring strong, gusty, erratic winds, as well as hail. 97 && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 The primary forecast concerns are the chance for thunderstorms and severe weather from late this afternoon into tonight, then from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The pattern at 500 mb features a ridge from off the coast of southern CA into CO and NM. There was a trough from southwest Canada to off the coast of northern CA. Fairly fast zonal flow for this time of year was in place from MT and WY into the Dakotas. We are mostly south of the stronger westerlies, and of note the 300 mb wind over KOAX this morning was calm. The atmosphere this afternoon is fairly moist and unstable as of 2 pm. Surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s with temperatures mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s. RUC initializations show lowest 100 mb ML CAPE values mostly 1500-2500 J/kg, but effective deep layer shear is mostly less than 25 knots. The exception to this is in the far western parts of northeast NE back westward across northern NE and southern SD. There should be some enhanced lift later today and into tonight, mostly across SD but also far northern NE. This evening and tonight. Some of the recent CAMs (convection allowing high resolution models) suggest a few storms possibly from 22Z-02Z in parts of Knox and Cedar counties that could be severe. Then there may be a break until more storms try to build southeast from northeast NE toward southwest IA after midnight. Will keep chance category POPs in much of the area with marginal risk of severe storms for later tonight. Not sure exactly how much of a severe threat there will be after midnight, but should at least be potential for gusty winds over 40 mph. Look for low temperatures tonight in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tuesday into Tuesday night. A few storms could possibly linger a bit past sunrise Tuesday, then we expect a dry period the rest of the day through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday should be just a bit warmer than today, with highs 90 to 95. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be around 70 to 75. Wednesday into Thursday night. This may be a fairly active period, with models continuing to show fairly strong forcing moving through the region with a moderately unstable airmass. Highest chances seem to be Wednesday night, when some severe storms (especially in northeast NE) and heavy rain appear possible. Some model guidances indicates potential for pockets of over 2 inches of rain. There is still some variation in model timing and hopefully that will get better in the next 24 hours. Highs on Wednesday should again be 90 to 95. Thursday should be a little cooler, 85 to 90, with more cloud cover. Friday into Monday. We will keep some lower end thunderstorm chances going for the period from Friday into Saturday night, but confidence is only average. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Currently there are ongoing thunderstorms in far northeast Nebraska in Knox, Cedar, Antelope, and Pierce counties. They are slowly drifting southward and it`s possible they impact KOFK. It seems likely that storms will at least be in the vicinity. For the rest of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, VFR conditions are likely to prevail. Winds to remain southerly between 5 to 10 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Miller AVIATION...Fajman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1019 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the mid-evening update, removed or lessened measurable PoPs from most of the WFO PAH forecast area for the rest of tonight and amended PoPs in the 16z (10 am CDT) Tuesday to 02z (9 pm CDT Tuesday night) Wednesday time frame. The NAMNest and HRRR guidance combination has performed rather well in both PoP placement and areal coverage of QPF (rainfall amounts) the last 48 hours and verified well versus area radar rainfall coverage. Upper level low has been moving slowly northeast this morning through this evening across western Tennessee into western/central/Kentucky. The instability with the shear zone/moisture ahead of the low helped to kick off the convection near Christian and Todd counties this morning, while this afternoon and evening convection in northwest and north central Tennessee appears to be aided by the low itself as it moves northeast. This feature will be less of a contributing factor as the night goes on. However, the shear zone along and ahead of the northwest flow ahead of a building ridge in the west help support instability and mixing over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this afternoon. As this shear zone moved east of the favored broad low level (southeast winds at 700/850 mb) around the east-west oriented low pressure axis stretching from Texas to Georgia at 00z Tuesday, most of the lift moved away from the mean moisture axis, limiting any additional convection not aided by daytime insolation. Short range guidance suggests that the upper ridge will not be strong enough to be maintained over the area, as low pressure from Texas moves slowly east-northeast through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley by mid-week. However, this eastward movement will be slow and somewhat awkward in terms of moisture convergence and lift. As net result, shower and thunderstorm activity will be again be diurnally driven on Tuesday (mainly during the afternoon and evening), with the best development along weak shear zones and slightly cooler temperatures aloft within those zones in places where low level moisture convergence can be maximized. Where surface parcels, heated by the sun, can intercept these zones, slow moving thunderstorms can be generated within that zone, until either the instability moves away or the moisture pool is exhausted. At this point in time it appears the southwest Illinois, southeast Missouri and the southern west Kentucky Pennyrile will see the best chances for rain Tuesday afternoon and evening. When preparing the gridded forecast, attempted not to broadbrush PoPs, but focus on the best areas of lift, instability, and moisture tonight and Tuesday. As mentioned earlier in the discussion, the NAMNest and HRRR seem to be modeling the convective potential and rainfall coverage quite well. Adjusted cloud cover, temperatures, dewpoints, winds, and PoPs to reflect this potential. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Afternoon diurnally driven thunderstorms will diminish through the early evening. Otherwise expect a repeat again Tuesday with similar thunderstorm areal coverage given no real changes in atmospheric profiles. Somewhat deeper moisture will remain over western KY, plus there may be leftover outflow boundaries from previous convection, so coverage may be slightly more there again Tuesday, as well over other areas in the vicinity of previous convection. While there is no organized severe thunderstorm potential, still expect storms that develop will be outflow dominated, with an isolated storm here or there having microburst potential. Heavy downpours, capable of isolated flooding, will also be possible. In fact, given the weak steering wind fields and resultant slow storm movement, flash flooding potential will be greater than usual. Very little change for high temperatures as Tuesday will bring another day of max temps from around 90 to perhaps 93-94 over parts of SE MO. Slightly higher surface dewpoints Tuesday will generate slightly higher Heat Indices with values topping out in the mid 90s to near 100. Lows each night will be in the vicinity of the surface dewpoints, generally lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 2400 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Continued low confidence in long range forecast. As ridge retrogrades slowly west, the area comes into a northwest flow regime by the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday will continue to offer hot and muggy conditions and heat of the day thunderstorms. On Friday a cool front/wind shift approaches the area. This feature will offer a focusing mechanism for storms to develop along and near. Thus there should be a decent chance of an organized rainfall event Friday into Saturday morning. After Friday, the northwest flow should be setup and thus waves of energy are forecast to move over the area and with them will come chances of rain. Timing of these features will be unknown until we are much closer in time. What is sure is that Wednesday and Thursday will be hot and humid. Heat indices will flirt with 100 degrees both afternoons. After Thursday, the cool front enters the picture, humidities drop just enough to keep us below the 100 degree heat indices through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the 00z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept an early evening mention of vicinity thunderstorms near the KCGI location, as there was a greater probability of thunderstorm activity in and near this location through at least 02z Tuesday. There is the potential for mid to late afternoon thunderstorm activity in and near all of the TAF sites on Tuesday, but the probability remains low enough not to warrant inclusion during the last 3 hours of the forecast period. Added MVFR fog between the 06z-12z time frame for KMVN, KEVV, and KOWB, with some mention of patches of IFR visibilities at KMVN. Most of these lowered visibilities will be associated with better surface moisture convergence in and near a weak surface boundary/wind shift line over parts of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...RLS LONG TERM...SE AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
928 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020 .UPDATE... A weak disturbance will bring increased rain chances across the I-20 corridor after midnight. Isolated flash flooding across saturated areas will remain the biggest threat during the predawn hours. Forecast remains in good shape at this time with no significant updates needed at this time. /05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ AVIATION... VCTS conditions expected through the evening hours. However, a disturbance pushing into east Texas will bring another round of overnight convection mainly across the I-20 terminals sites. MVFR conditions possible around daybreak with lingering convection forecast to dissipate. Conditions to improve to VFR by 07/15Z with VCTS conditions again possible with daytime heating. Light and variable winds overnight to become southwest at 10 knots on Tuesday. /05/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2020/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/ The latest RAP mid-level analysis show a 500mb weak short wave along the TX/OK border with short wave energy slowly rotating south- southeastward into East Texas. This feature is ever-so-slowly edging eastward. At the surface, a weak 1010mb low remains north of the DFW metro with a poorly-defined weak surface trough extending eastward from this feature into East Texas and northern Louisiana. With weak cyclonic flow observed in the 500mb-sfc layer near the wave, this area of weak low pressure is aiding in development of showers and thunderstorms in a very moist environment with PWAT values in the 2-2.25" range. Instability has increased to the 2000-2500 J/kg range for locations which haven`t already seen showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest thunderstorms have been most focused in 3 areas, a line in East Texas, storms in southwestern/south-central Arkansas and another area in the ArkLaMiss. 2-3" rainfall in 1-2 hrs has been observed earlier this afternoon and led to flash flooding in Texarkana. While showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in intensity this evening with the loss of heating, the wave to the west of the area will continue to slowly edge eastward and provide forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible given the moist environment. With this in mind, kept 30-40% POPs overnight. A similar pattern will be in place on Tuesday as the cyclonic flow with the weak low shifts further eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will again increase in intensity tomorrow afternoon with PWAT values above 2" contributing to a localized flash flooding threat. Tuesday night, showers and thunderstorms will again decrease in coverage and intensity, but linger overnight. Temperatures are closest to the National Blend of Models (NBM) through the short term with highs tomorrow in the mid 80s and lows in the lower to mid 70s across the area. /04-Woodrum/ LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/ More scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a weak shortwave trough moves across the area. As usual, convection will generally be much more widespread during the day with peak diurnal instability before slowly diminishing during the nighttime hours. Weak steering flow aloft and PWATs near or above 2 inches will continue to promote slow-moving and efficient rain producing storms, which could pose a threat for isolated flash flooding. By Thursday, the shortwave trough will move east and an upper ridge centered over New Mexico will expand eastward. At the same time, the center of a surface ridge in the Gulf of Mexico will move closer to the Southeast Louisiana coast. With a lack of large scale forcing, rain chances will become much more limited to isolated sea breeze activity. Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast periphery of the ridge could steer convective complexes towards pretty much everyday from Thursday through Sunday. However, the MCSs will likely be decaying by the time the reach our area, if they make it this far south at all. Therefore, slight chance to low-end chance PoPs will remain in the forecast, but mainly for portions of Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana. Otherwise, as rain chances taper off, the heat will gradually build. The recent rains should help temper the warming trend somewhat, but evaporation of the moisture combined with low-level southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will result in oppressive humidity. Heat Advisories will be likely by the end of the week, and Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed by the weekend as peak heat index values exceed 110 degrees F. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 85 74 89 / 60 70 40 70 MLU 75 87 73 89 / 50 80 40 70 DEQ 72 86 71 89 / 30 60 30 50 TXK 73 84 73 86 / 40 70 40 60 ELD 73 87 72 88 / 40 80 40 70 TYR 74 82 74 89 / 60 70 40 30 GGG 73 84 73 90 / 60 70 40 40 LFK 75 87 75 92 / 50 60 30 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 05/04/09
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
254 PM MST Mon Jul 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Very hot daytime temperatures this week with record or near record temperatures likely by next weekend. Well below average moisture for July with just enough for a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly near the international border. && .DISCUSSION...We`re seeing another modest moisture push into the lower deserts from the gulf, with the Yuma dewpoint holding close to 50 instead of mixing lower this afternoon. The current KYUX wind profile shows a southerly flow up to 4k feet. The HRRR takes this and filters some of it eastward over the next 12 hours. It also continues to suggest potential organized development south of the border this evening, subsequently pushing an outflow into our neck of the woods Tuesday morning. It`s one of those sneaky moisture situations. We won`t have any big blowout monsoon days with the current thermodynamics in the temperature column and moisture still below average, but the HRRR showing a few modest buildups this afternoon, followed by a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon is entirely reasonable. Otherwise, we begin to focus on excessive heat issues by this weekend. NAEFS means suggest near record to record 500mb heights Saturday through Monday or Tuesday, and thickness regression analysis supports record highs. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Saturday through Monday, although it may not be quite there for Monday as we see a potential moisture push for mid month. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon mainly near International border and favoring KOLS. However, the chance of measurable rainfall is only 10 percent. Otherwise, FEW- BKN clouds at times KTUS vicinity ewd/swd, and mainly SKC northwest of KTUS into Tuesday morning. Surface wind KSAD valley area wly/nwly 12-18 kts with gusts near 25 kts this afternoon and evening. Surface wind elsewhere variable in direction mainly under 12 kts, although some afternoon wly/nwly gusts 15-20 kts may occur. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Below average moisture conditions into next weekend. The best chance of rainfall is Wednesday afternoon when isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected southeast to south of Tucson. A few thunderstorms may occur as far north as the Tucson metro area Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the main forecast emphasis is very hot daytime temperatures, with the hottest temperatures likely next weekend. The 20-foot winds will be mainly terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .CLIMATE...Forecast and record high temps next Friday into Sunday Date July 10 July 11 July 12 FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR Tucson Int`l Airport 107 109/2019 110 111/1958 113 110/2005 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for AZZ501>506-509. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at