Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and again on on Monday afternoon and evening over the eastern Interior. Areas of fog and low clouds are expected again overnight along the Arctic Coast. && .DISCUSSION... The 05/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when compared to observations. Overall, the models are in decent agreement with the synoptic scale pattern out through Monday. Thereafter, subtle differences in the placement of the major features begins to emerge on Tuesday and much larger differences show up after Thursday. For our forecast package this afternoon, we leaned heavily on the NAM. We also gave a lot of weight to the HRRR for the placement of convection in the Interior through Monday evening. Aloft, at 500 mb, a 549 dam low is currently just south of Mackenzie Bay, while a ridge stretches along the west coast. The aforementioned low will slowly move to the south, reaching the central Yukon Territory by Tuesday afternoon; however, there is still uncertain in its movement thereafter. A trough associated with a low that is currently over Siberia will move over the west coast by Tuesday. Central and Eastern Interior... Satellite shows thunderstorms developing over the Fortymile Country this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely continue in this area through this evening. A strong shortwave will dive south over the Interior on Monday. This will provide better upper level support for the development of thunderstorms across much of the Interior. The best chances for thunderstorms again looks to be in the Fortymile Country. Convection allowing models, such as the HRRR seem relatively excited about the potential for thunderstorms on Monday. Chances for showers will increase on Tuesday as a deformation zone sets up over the Interior; however at the moment, the exact placement of the precipitation is expected. A general cooling trend in temperatures is expected through midweek. North Slope and Brooks Range... Fog and low stratus continues to make the forecast for coastal areas challenging. High pressure will remain over Beaufort Sea through much of the week keeping onshore flow in place. Thus, we will continue to see fog and low stratus at times through midweek. Aside from the fog, relatively quiet weather is expected the next few days. West Coast and Western Interior... A weak front that is currently over the west coast will very slowly push inland tonight into Wednesday. This system will mainly bring lower clouds and fog to areas along the coast south of Bering Strait tonight. Cloud cover will increase over the Interior over the next 48 hours as the system pushes inland. A cooling trend in temperatures is expected through midweek. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... A series southward moving fronts will move across the eastern Interior over the next couple of days. Expect isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms to persist over much of the eastern Interior through Tuesday, with Monday being the most active day. We increased the LAL values for Monday for much of the eastern Interior with the afternoon package. A gradual cooling trend is expected for most of the Interior and the west coast over the next few days, with increasing cloud cover and RH. && .HYDROLOGY... Any heavy rainfall over the next few days will be very localized and associated with thunderstorms. No major issues are currently anticipated. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230. && $$ JUL 20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 HRRR model suggests a large area of widely scattered, mainly airmass pulse type storms developing across the area over the next couple of hours, in an uncapped moderate sbcape environment. With pwats around 1.2-1.5 should be a number of short lived but efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms, capable of strong gusty winds at times between 3 pm and 7 pm. A severe wind threat seems unlikely this afternoon, however we might be monitoring for any enhanced effective shear layer near the highway 83 corridor that might allow for a little better storm organization/life cycle. The convection ought to be waning by sunset, as the HRRR and other models suggest. With probably more lingering overnight clouds in central Kansas and higher moisture content surface layer air, the model lows overnight vary from cool low 60s around Syracuse and Johnson to low 70s near Pratt and Medicine Lodge. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 With little overall air mass change, the models (HRRR) break out widely scattered , small convective elements after 18z MOnday, and again seem to trend toward decaying those away toward 00 UTC Tuesday. These would be likely to form off any leftover outflow boundary and aided by continued weak moist upslope flow. Based on the ECMWF, Tuesday looks like a return to more weak south wind trajectories and any storm development to be relegated out west by a dryline near the state line. From that point forward, models indicate we get into stronger northwest flow aloft and a progressively hotter regime into the weekend. The ECMWF shows a developed upper trough over eastern CO and the High Plains region of NE/KS Thursday evening, and a large area of convective potential across the central Plains including most of our warning area. The trending towards hotter temperatures continues into the weekend. Saturday looks like the hottest day at this point, with high temperatures around 105 degrees in the southern half of the forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Showers and thunderstorms were diminishing rapidly across southwest Kansas late this afternoon. By the beginning of this TAF period, all the terminals should be free of any convective activity. Scattered to broken mid and high level cloudiness may linger into this evening but should gradually diminish as well. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again Monday afternoon on a more isolated basis, mainly in areas along and north of the Oklahoma border. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 91 67 94 / 20 20 0 0 GCK 64 92 65 94 / 20 10 0 0 EHA 64 91 65 94 / 40 20 10 0 LBL 64 92 65 94 / 40 20 10 0 HYS 67 91 68 94 / 10 10 0 0 P28 69 92 69 95 / 10 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 A warm and humid summertime air mass lingering over Central Indiana will continue to provide daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least mid week. Little change in the ongoing weather pattern is expected through the weekend. Above normal temperatures...high humidity and continued chances for afternoon and evening showers will persist into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM (Rest of Tonight)... Issued at 1022 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Convection has exited the forecast area this evening, and with loss of heating feel that odds of any additional convection are low. Will go with a dry forecast. Adjusted sky cover to match current observations, but skies should become mostly clear all areas. Tweaked temperatures based on latest observations. A warm and humid night is in store. Left any fog mention out for now, but with the humid conditions and light winds, wouldn`t be surprised if some patchy fog develops in favored areas overnight. Previous discussion follows.... Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place across the southern Great Lakes. This was continuing to provide light NE surface flow to much of Central Indiana. Aloft water vapor showed a ridge in place across CO...NB and toward Iowa...but this feature was beginning a flattening out phase. Water vapor also showed subsidence and drying aloft over Indiana. GOES16 Visibility images shows some cu development across the southern parts of the forecast area as convective temperatures have been reached. Little overall change is expected in the ongoing weather pattern tonight as the models continue a gradual flattening of the ridge aloft to the west and keep the surface high in place just north of Central Indiana. Time heights continue to show dry air aloft with a lingering humid level near the surface. Forecast sounding today also continue to show a column favorable for convection later this afternoon...which will at least persist into the evening hours at isolated coverage. HRRR hints at widely scattered coverage. Once heating is lost convection will die yielding to just partly cloudy skies overnight. Thus will keep a low chc pop in place through 00Z to account for diurnal convection...but trend toward a dry forecast thereafter. Will trend lows at or near persistence. && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The ridging aloft is expected to flatten out through this period...however the overall flow aloft will remain well north of Central Indiana through the period. This will steer any forcing dynamics well north of Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure remain in place across the southeastern states...allowing a continued southerly surface flow of warm and humid air over Indiana. Thus with little forcing expected and little change in the overall air mass and weather patterns will continue with a persistence type forecast the next few days. Forecast soundings each day show favorable conditions for afternoon diurnal convection with pwats near 1.5 inches and over 2000 J/KG of CAPE each day. Thus will include at least some chc pops each day...mainly in the afternoon and early evening. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 The jet stream will be displaced well to the north along the U S- Canada border much of this week with an elongated ridge encompassing much of the country from the Baja Peninsula northeast into the Great Lakes. An upper level low will track along the U S-Canadian border late this week which will force a contraction to the ridge with the center refocusing over the southern Rockies. With the arrival and passage of the trough associated with the upper low on Friday...a transition to northwest flow aloft will develop in tandem with the passage of a weak frontal boundary. These feature will combine to bring the most likely threat for convection late Thursday through Friday. The Ohio Valley will remain on the ridge periphery through much of next weekend with any upper level waves potentially bringing additional convective clusters into the region. Beyond next weekend...the ridge is set to reestablish across the region during the first half of the following week. Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90s late this week with a slight pullback into the mid and upper 80s over the weekend. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 060600Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 Generally VFR conditions expected. Can`t rule out some fog overnight, especially at the outlier sites, but am not confident enough to put in the TAFs at this time. Will keep an eye on it. Scattered to broken cumulus will develop in the later morning hours and continue into evening. Scattered convection will develop in the afternoon. Used a vicinity mention for now. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma/50 SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
650 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 .DISCUSSION... Please see the updated Aviation Discussion below. && .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the Heartland this evening and will impact the KBBD terminal before dissipating by sunset. Additional showers and storms may develop across the northern and western half of West Central Texas later this evening and overnight. Uncertainty remains on evolution of these storms but will continue with a mention of thunder at the KABI terminal where confidence is highest. Outside of storms VFR conditions will continue overnight and on Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) Band of mid level cloud cover and instability leftover from overnight convection has slid south and east into West Central Texas this afternoon. Have seen some isolated showers and storms with it, and models indicate this should become a little more widespread with some afternoon heating later in the afternoon, from roughly San Angelo east towards Brownwood and Brady. Additional scattered storms are expected to develop later this afternoon from the South Plains south into the Permian Basin, with the activity expected to move east and southeast into the Concho Valley and Big Country during the evening hours. Finally, latest HRRR and NAMNEST show additional storm activity with an MCV expected to develop across the Panhandle and northern New Mexico this evening and move southeast towards the Big Country by sunrise, bringing an additional chance for convection. All models are slightly different with timing and location of all 3 sets of convection, but overall still appears that at least scattered storms will be possible across much of West Central Texas tonight, with the locations north of I-20 likely seeing the best opportunities and therefore the best PoPs. Rain chances on Monday are almost completely dependent on what happens with the evolution of the convection tonight so confidence is limited. However, again it looks like the best rain chances will be with the MCV moving across the area during the morning hours across most likely the Big Country and Heartland. Otherwise, more cloud cover will lead to a little cooler temperatures, much closer to seasonal normals than what we saw on Saturday. LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Weak northerly flow aloft will continue over our area for a bit longer Monday night into Tuesday, with the upper high centered over New Mexico. What is left of the weak frontal boundary is expected to wash out by Tuesday. With lingering moisture and instability, and perhaps a remnant outflow boundary or two in the area, cannot rule out the possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms. With these considerations, carrying a lingering slight chance PoP into Tuesday for the central and east-central parts of our area, extending north into the Big Country. For the middle and late parts of the week, the aforementioned upper high is forecast to strengthen over New Mexico and expand east over Texas and the southern Plains. Rain chances for our area will shut off by Wednesday, with subsidence and drying of the airmass. With strong 850mb thermal ridge expanding east across our area, daytime temperatures will be hotter. Expect increasing parts of our area to have highs reaching the triple digits Thursday and Friday. Indications for next weekend are for highs to be 100 to 105 degrees across our area, with some locations exceeding 105. Daily lows will be in the 70s, with mid to upper 70s possible for an increasing part of our area by the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 89 71 91 / 50 30 30 20 San Angelo 73 94 72 95 / 30 20 20 20 Junction 73 96 73 94 / 20 20 10 10 Brownwood 74 91 72 90 / 30 30 30 20 Sweetwater 70 88 71 92 / 50 20 20 20 Ozona 74 96 73 97 / 10 5 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 PM MST Sun Jul 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep temperatures several degrees above average this week. We`ll have just enough moisture for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms mainly near the international border. && .DISCUSSION...The deeper moisture remains south of our area with just enough in place across SE AZ for a few buildups near the mountains each afternoon. Best chances will be near the border, but that doesn`t preclude a stray cell or two further north. HREF ensembles keep the 1 inch precipitable water line near the border for at least the next 36 hours. HRRR hinting at a potential MCS south of Nogales Monday evening, which would likely give us a chance to replace some of the moisture we`re slowly losing. Of course we still need to fight through less than favorable thermodynamic conditions with the warming aloft. Still, solar insolation will be considerable. We`re still looking at the chance of a more favorable high position with a ridge axis immediately east this weekend. We may initially have to overcome additional mid level heating, so even with a modest moisture increase we probably won`t be set to go crazy. If the ridge sets up a little further east though, all bets are off. && .AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z. Isolated -TSRA near international border in the afternoon hours, including KOLS, KFHU and KDUG. FEW- BKN clouds 12k-15k ft MSL. Surface wind variable in direction generally under 12 kts, gusty in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms southeast-to-south of Tucson Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Friday and Saturday during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail during this forecast period. Daytime minimum humidity mostly ranging from 15-30 percent with good overnight recoveries. Aside from brief gusty thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot will be mainly terrain driven at less than 15 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Meyer Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at