Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/06/20
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 PM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
evening and again on on Monday afternoon and evening over the
eastern Interior. Areas of fog and low clouds are expected again
overnight along the Arctic Coast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The 05/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when
compared to observations. Overall, the models are in decent
agreement with the synoptic scale pattern out through Monday.
Thereafter, subtle differences in the placement of the major
features begins to emerge on Tuesday and much larger differences
show up after Thursday. For our forecast package this afternoon,
we leaned heavily on the NAM. We also gave a lot of weight to the
HRRR for the placement of convection in the Interior through
Monday evening.
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 549 dam low is currently just south of
Mackenzie Bay, while a ridge stretches along the west coast. The
aforementioned low will slowly move to the south, reaching the
central Yukon Territory by Tuesday afternoon; however, there is
still uncertain in its movement thereafter. A trough associated
with a low that is currently over Siberia will move over the west
coast by Tuesday.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Satellite shows thunderstorms developing over the Fortymile
Country this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely continue in
this area through this evening. A strong shortwave will dive south
over the Interior on Monday. This will provide better upper level
support for the development of thunderstorms across much of the
Interior. The best chances for thunderstorms again looks to be in
the Fortymile Country. Convection allowing models, such as the
HRRR seem relatively excited about the potential for
thunderstorms on Monday. Chances for showers will increase on
Tuesday as a deformation zone sets up over the Interior; however
at the moment, the exact placement of the precipitation is
expected. A general cooling trend in temperatures is expected
through midweek.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and low stratus continues to make the forecast for coastal
areas challenging. High pressure will remain over Beaufort Sea
through much of the week keeping onshore flow in place. Thus, we
will continue to see fog and low stratus at times through midweek.
Aside from the fog, relatively quiet weather is expected the next
few days.
West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak front that is currently over the west coast will very
slowly push inland tonight into Wednesday. This system will
mainly bring lower clouds and fog to areas along the coast south
of Bering Strait tonight. Cloud cover will increase over the
Interior over the next 48 hours as the system pushes inland. A
cooling trend in temperatures is expected through midweek.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A series southward moving fronts will move across the eastern
Interior over the next couple of days. Expect isolated to
scattered afternoon thunderstorms to persist over much of the
eastern Interior through Tuesday, with Monday being the most
active day. We increased the LAL values for Monday for much of
the eastern Interior with the afternoon package. A gradual
cooling trend is expected for most of the Interior and the west
coast over the next few days, with increasing cloud cover and RH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any heavy rainfall over the next few days will be very localized
and associated with thunderstorms. No major issues are currently
anticipated.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230.
&&
$$
JUL 20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020
HRRR model suggests a large area of widely scattered, mainly airmass
pulse type storms developing across the area over the next couple of
hours, in an uncapped moderate sbcape environment. With pwats around
1.2-1.5 should be a number of short lived but efficient rain
producing showers and thunderstorms, capable of strong gusty winds
at times between 3 pm and 7 pm. A severe wind threat seems unlikely
this afternoon, however we might be monitoring for any enhanced
effective shear layer near the highway 83 corridor that might allow
for a little better storm organization/life cycle. The convection
ought to be waning by sunset, as the HRRR and other models suggest.
With probably more lingering overnight clouds in central Kansas and
higher moisture content surface layer air, the model lows overnight
vary from cool low 60s around Syracuse and Johnson to low 70s near
Pratt and Medicine Lodge.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020
With little overall air mass change, the models (HRRR) break out
widely scattered , small convective elements after 18z MOnday, and
again seem to trend toward decaying those away toward 00 UTC
Tuesday. These would be likely to form off any leftover outflow
boundary and aided by continued weak moist upslope flow. Based on
the ECMWF, Tuesday looks like a return to more weak south wind
trajectories and any storm development to be relegated out west by a
dryline near the state line. From that point forward, models
indicate we get into stronger northwest flow aloft and a
progressively hotter regime into the weekend. The ECMWF shows a
developed upper trough over eastern CO and the High Plains region of
NE/KS Thursday evening, and a large area of convective potential
across the central Plains including most of our warning area. The
trending towards hotter temperatures continues into the weekend.
Saturday looks like the hottest day at this point, with high
temperatures around 105 degrees in the southern half of the forecast
area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020
Showers and thunderstorms were diminishing rapidly across southwest
Kansas late this afternoon. By the beginning of this TAF period, all
the terminals should be free of any convective activity. Scattered
to broken mid and high level cloudiness may linger into this evening
but should gradually diminish as well. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop again Monday afternoon on a more isolated
basis, mainly in areas along and north of the Oklahoma border.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 91 67 94 / 20 20 0 0
GCK 64 92 65 94 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 64 91 65 94 / 40 20 10 0
LBL 64 92 65 94 / 40 20 10 0
HYS 67 91 68 94 / 10 10 0 0
P28 69 92 69 95 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
A warm and humid summertime air mass lingering over Central
Indiana will continue to provide daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms through at least mid week.
Little change in the ongoing weather pattern is expected through
the weekend. Above normal temperatures...high humidity and
continued chances for afternoon and evening showers will persist
into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM (Rest of Tonight)...
Issued at 1022 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
Convection has exited the forecast area this evening, and with
loss of heating feel that odds of any additional convection are
low. Will go with a dry forecast. Adjusted sky cover to match
current observations, but skies should become mostly clear all
areas.
Tweaked temperatures based on latest observations. A warm and humid
night is in store. Left any fog mention out for now, but with the
humid conditions and light winds, wouldn`t be surprised if some
patchy fog develops in favored areas overnight.
Previous discussion follows....
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure in place
across the southern Great Lakes. This was continuing to provide
light NE surface flow to much of Central Indiana. Aloft water
vapor showed a ridge in place across CO...NB and toward Iowa...but
this feature was beginning a flattening out phase. Water vapor
also showed subsidence and drying aloft over Indiana. GOES16
Visibility images shows some cu development across the southern
parts of the forecast area as convective temperatures have been
reached.
Little overall change is expected in the ongoing weather pattern
tonight as the models continue a gradual flattening of the ridge
aloft to the west and keep the surface high in place just north of
Central Indiana. Time heights continue to show dry air aloft with
a lingering humid level near the surface. Forecast sounding today
also continue to show a column favorable for convection later this
afternoon...which will at least persist into the evening hours at
isolated coverage. HRRR hints at widely scattered coverage. Once
heating is lost convection will die yielding to just partly cloudy
skies overnight. Thus will keep a low chc pop in place through
00Z to account for diurnal convection...but trend toward a dry
forecast thereafter. Will trend lows at or near persistence.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
The ridging aloft is expected to flatten out through this
period...however the overall flow aloft will remain well north of
Central Indiana through the period. This will steer any forcing
dynamics well north of Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface strong
high pressure remain in place across the southeastern
states...allowing a continued southerly surface flow of warm and
humid air over Indiana. Thus with little forcing expected and
little change in the overall air mass and weather patterns will
continue with a persistence type forecast the next few days.
Forecast soundings each day show favorable conditions for
afternoon diurnal convection with pwats near 1.5 inches and over
2000 J/KG of CAPE each day. Thus will include at least some chc
pops each day...mainly in the afternoon and early evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
The jet stream will be displaced well to the north along the U S-
Canada border much of this week with an elongated ridge
encompassing much of the country from the Baja Peninsula northeast
into the Great Lakes. An upper level low will track along the U
S-Canadian border late this week which will force a contraction
to the ridge with the center refocusing over the southern Rockies.
With the arrival and passage of the trough associated with the
upper low on Friday...a transition to northwest flow aloft will
develop in tandem with the passage of a weak frontal boundary.
These feature will combine to bring the most likely threat for
convection late Thursday through Friday.
The Ohio Valley will remain on the ridge periphery through much
of next weekend with any upper level waves potentially bringing
additional convective clusters into the region. Beyond next
weekend...the ridge is set to reestablish across the region during
the first half of the following week.
Highs will continue in the lower to mid 90s late this week with a
slight pullback into the mid and upper 80s over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (Discussion for the 060600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020
Generally VFR conditions expected.
Can`t rule out some fog overnight, especially at the outlier
sites, but am not confident enough to put in the TAFs at this
time. Will keep an eye on it.
Scattered to broken cumulus will develop in the later morning
hours and continue into evening. Scattered convection will develop
in the afternoon. Used a vicinity mention for now.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma/50
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...50
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
650 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the updated Aviation Discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
the Heartland this evening and will impact the KBBD terminal
before dissipating by sunset. Additional showers and storms may
develop across the northern and western half of West Central Texas
later this evening and overnight. Uncertainty remains on
evolution of these storms but will continue with a mention of
thunder at the KABI terminal where confidence is highest. Outside
of storms VFR conditions will continue overnight and on Monday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)
Band of mid level cloud cover and instability leftover from
overnight convection has slid south and east into West Central Texas
this afternoon. Have seen some isolated showers and storms with it,
and models indicate this should become a little more widespread with
some afternoon heating later in the afternoon, from roughly San
Angelo east towards Brownwood and Brady. Additional scattered storms
are expected to develop later this afternoon from the South Plains
south into the Permian Basin, with the activity expected to move
east and southeast into the Concho Valley and Big Country during the
evening hours. Finally, latest HRRR and NAMNEST show additional
storm activity with an MCV expected to develop across the Panhandle
and northern New Mexico this evening and move southeast towards the
Big Country by sunrise, bringing an additional chance for
convection. All models are slightly different with timing and
location of all 3 sets of convection, but overall still appears that
at least scattered storms will be possible across much of West
Central Texas tonight, with the locations north of I-20 likely
seeing the best opportunities and therefore the best PoPs.
Rain chances on Monday are almost completely dependent on what
happens with the evolution of the convection tonight so confidence
is limited. However, again it looks like the best rain chances will
be with the MCV moving across the area during the morning hours
across most likely the Big Country and Heartland. Otherwise, more
cloud cover will lead to a little cooler temperatures, much closer
to seasonal normals than what we saw on Saturday.
LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Weak northerly flow aloft will continue over our area for a bit
longer Monday night into Tuesday, with the upper high centered over
New Mexico. What is left of the weak frontal boundary is expected to
wash out by Tuesday. With lingering moisture and instability, and
perhaps a remnant outflow boundary or two in the area, cannot rule
out the possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms. With these
considerations, carrying a lingering slight chance PoP into Tuesday
for the central and east-central parts of our area, extending north
into the Big Country.
For the middle and late parts of the week, the aforementioned upper
high is forecast to strengthen over New Mexico and expand east over
Texas and the southern Plains. Rain chances for our area will shut
off by Wednesday, with subsidence and drying of the airmass. With
strong 850mb thermal ridge expanding east across our area, daytime
temperatures will be hotter. Expect increasing parts of our area to
have highs reaching the triple digits Thursday and Friday.
Indications for next weekend are for highs to be 100 to 105 degrees
across our area, with some locations exceeding 105. Daily lows will
be in the 70s, with mid to upper 70s possible for an increasing part
of our area by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 89 71 91 / 50 30 30 20
San Angelo 73 94 72 95 / 30 20 20 20
Junction 73 96 73 94 / 20 20 10 10
Brownwood 74 91 72 90 / 30 30 30 20
Sweetwater 70 88 71 92 / 50 20 20 20
Ozona 74 96 73 97 / 10 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
42
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 PM MST Sun Jul 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep temperatures several degrees
above average this week. We`ll have just enough moisture for a few
afternoon showers or thunderstorms mainly near the international
border.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The deeper moisture remains south of our area with
just enough in place across SE AZ for a few buildups near the
mountains each afternoon. Best chances will be near the border,
but that doesn`t preclude a stray cell or two further north. HREF
ensembles keep the 1 inch precipitable water line near the border
for at least the next 36 hours.
HRRR hinting at a potential MCS south of Nogales Monday evening,
which would likely give us a chance to replace some of the
moisture we`re slowly losing. Of course we still need to fight
through less than favorable thermodynamic conditions with the
warming aloft. Still, solar insolation will be considerable.
We`re still looking at the chance of a more favorable high
position with a ridge axis immediately east this weekend. We may
initially have to overcome additional mid level heating, so even
with a modest moisture increase we probably won`t be set to go
crazy. If the ridge sets up a little further east though, all bets
are off.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Isolated -TSRA near international border in the afternoon hours,
including KOLS, KFHU and KDUG. FEW- BKN clouds 12k-15k ft MSL.
Surface wind variable in direction generally under 12 kts, gusty
in the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated thunderstorms southeast-to-south of
Tucson Tuesday, Wednesday, and next Friday and Saturday during the
afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions to prevail
during this forecast period. Daytime minimum humidity mostly ranging
from 15-30 percent with good overnight recoveries. Aside from brief
gusty thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot will be mainly terrain driven
at less than 15 mph.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Meyer
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