Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, showers and tstms across eastern NM, the OK
Panhandle, and parts of the western TX Panhandle will continue
moving east and southeast this evening, and may impact KDHT and
KGUY. Have included VCTS at those two TAF sites for this evening.
It remains problematic whether KAMA will be impacted so did not
mention the potential for tstms at that particular site at this
time. Radar trends will be closely monitored this evening for psbl
amendments. Another round of showers and tstms is forecast to
develop later Saturday afternoon. Low confidence in where these
showers and storms will iniitally form precludes mentioning this
element in the terminal sites until time gets closer.
02
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night...
There is a weak boundary across the far NERN Panhandle where
combination of higher temps and higher dewpoints is leading to
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Otherwise MLCAPE is closer to 1000 j/kg
or less. SPC RAP analysis shows no CIN in the area, but most CAMs
hold onto a tiny bit of a cap and don`t show much convection
along the boundary this far west. Wind shear is generally weak,
although 0-6 km deep layer shear around 20-25 kts was also noted
along the boundary. Better convective chances will remain across
the west tonight near a weak SFC trough and where slightly deeper
moisture is noted. Deepest portion of the mid-upr level ridge axis
is located across NRN Mexico. There may be very subtle ridge
roller disturbances at play tonight but nothing very identifiable.
This means convection will be mainly more thermodynamically driven
and the bulk of it should dye off shortly after sunset before
reaching too far east into the CWA. This will favor WRN zones for
SCT late aftn and evening storms and suggest only isolated
activity is possible along outflow the makes it to central and
south central zones. If storms make it as far east as AMA later in
the night, it will be because they become elevated and anchor in
some mid level moisture with just enough CAPE above, which is
possible. If storms do not form along the aforementioned boundary,
minimal SVR chances will be assoc w/ pulse microbursts given
DCAPE values of 1500-1700 j/kg.
The tap into monsoonal moisture will lead to increasing H7
theta-e ridging across the region by Saturday. While moisture
profiles improve slightly and the atmosphere is showed uncapped by
aftn, MLCAPE is forecast to not be much different than today
(perhaps around 1000 j/kg). That said, H5 ridge will position more
favorably and models show a more significant H5 short wave and
H250 upper diffluence will further support increased coverage of
storms in the area. This will also provide a tad better eastward
push to storms that form to the west along a weak SFC trough and
along the mountains of CO and NM. Unlike today, models also show
convective development along the aforementioned boundary that is
progged to slide further west into the ERN Panhandles. Given weak
SVR parameters, the area is not outlooked for SVR storms but we
can`t completely rule out an isolated microburst as is usually the
case for summer storms in the Panhandle. Some heavy downpours with
these storms will be welcome.
Gittinger
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Sunday the pops keep on coming as the area will see northwest flow
aloft and moisture piping in from southeast surface flow. There
may be some leftover storms Sunday morning from overnight and then
we should catch a break. Hopefully this will allow enough recovery
time for the atmosphere by the afternoon to see the next round of
storms build and come through the Panhandles. Models suggest there
may be some leftover boundary in the area for storms to form on
based on forecast 700mb theta-E values. Bulk shear looks to be
around 25-30kts, MLCAPE is forecast to be 1500-2000 J/kg, SRH is
really weak to near 0; so expect at least strong to some isolated
severe storms.
There again may be some leftover convection exiting our eastern
areas Monday morning. Another round of storms is expected to form
in New Mexico in the afternoon and try to push eastward. Some
storms may form over the area if we hit convective temp and can
break the cap. Tuesday will likely see the storms stay over in New
Mexico as we turn a bit more towards northeasterly flow in the
midlevels. By mid week the GFS wants to bring some storms to the
area, but the ECMWF remains dry. NBM remained dry with this run,
so will keep with the blend for now but continue watching this
later period for any consistency or more models heading one way or
another with precip chances.
Beat
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Most of the thunderstorms at this time over the eastern and
southeast sections of the forecast area. I adjusted the timing of
the pops and backed off most of the showers/tstms from the urban
corridor westward. Another round of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Looks like things will get going by mid afternoon and
continue through mid evening. Tried to adjust the timing for the
highest pops in this window.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
A single severe thunderstorm has developed over Douglas County and
appears to be weakening as it moves northeastward. Additional weak
shower activity has also been brewing over the southern Front
Range foothills. Outflow boundaries from these showers may kick
off additional thunderstorm activity over the I-25 corridor to the
north of Denver in the next few hours. HRRR model runs show the
evening convection consolidating as a line over Weld, Morgan,
Adams and Lincoln Counties after 6 PM this evening. Southeasterly
winds on the plains with dew points in the lower to mid 50s will
provide decent inflow to keep showers developing as the progress
eastward. The forecast will have scattered thunderstorms on the
plains through the late evening. A few cells may produce moderate
to large hail at times.
Another day with morning sun and afternoon thunderstorms seems to
be in store for Saturday. The weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue while moist air and weak low pressure also remains in
place. CAPE values from the NAM show lower values tomorrow,
compared with this afternoon. So the threat of severe storms
should be lower, but scattered afternoon coverage will still be
possible. Temperatures should also reach the lower 90s on the
plains again.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
The ridge of high pressure aloft will remain over Colorado and
persist through next week. Afternoon and evening showers and
storms are expected to continue over the weekend, but warmer
temperatures and drier air aloft will decrease the chances of
convection through next week. There will be considerably less
precipitation across the area after Monday. Models show 700 hPa
temperatures frequently warmer than 60 F over the plains with
generally decreasing humidity. Surface high temperatures
will be in the 90s most of the week on the plains. There will
still be some summer storms, but much decreased in coverage and
intensity. Upper level flow will turn slightly more westerly over
the weekend, as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest
advances eastward. Flow will turn back to southwesterly from
Monday night the rest of the week.
Fire concerns on the plains will be increasing through next week
due to the warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation,
though strong winds are not expected. Heat may also become a
concern as temperatures continue to rise, especially for the heat
islands of the urban corridor.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 753 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
VFR expect through the period. Outflow from thunderstorms east and
southeast of terminals will enhance the east/southeast winds this
evening, but then taper off to normal drainage after midnight.
Another round of thunderstorms to move through the terminals on
Saturday afternoon sometime on or after 20z. Could see brief
periods of ILS restrictions as thunderstorms move across the
terminals.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...DiRenzo
AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Satellite imagery at midday depicts an obvious mesoscale
convective vortex over central Kansas. All showers and
thunderstorms had ended across SW KS, with a mixture of mid layer
clouds and convective debris. Light E/SE winds prevailed at
midday, and will continue to prevail through this afternoon,
keeping boundary layer moisture replenished. Dewpoints will be
commonly in the 60s this afternoon, yielding CAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg. With a myriad of boundaries floating around, and this much
moisture/instability, can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm
anywhere this afternoon. That said, the vast majority of
convection through this evening is expected to remain focused to
our east, across central Kansas, associated with the MCV, and with
the orographically- enhanced lee trough across eastern Colorado.
In between, most of SW KS will remain dry. The most recent
iterations of the HRRR do show a weakly organized convective
complex arriving on the CO/KS border around 7-8 pm. Along with WFO
Goodland, raised pops for this activity. Marginal 5% wind/hail
probability from SPC is warranted, but appears to be mainly
associated with the convection arriving from Colorado across the
western counties this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may
advance as far east as US 83 by midnight before weakening.
Expecting 1-3 degrees of "cooling" on Independence Day, as models
shave 850 mb temperatures down about 2C over Friday. An easterly
component in the boundary layer will also keep moisture available,
with dewpoints holding in the 50s and 60s. In typical summer
fashion, the majority of zones will be dry during the daylight
hours Saturday. 12z NAM indicates any convection favoring the
western zones (west of US 83) after 4 pm, and pops were aligned to
favor these western zones Saturday afternoon/evening. Most
fireworks displays will have no weather impacts, but those outdoor
events along/west of US 83 have the best chance of having a
thunderstorm in the vicinity at sunset.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
NBM pop grids show an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage
Sunday/Sunday night, with coverage in the 30-50% range. This is
supported by 12z ECMWF which shows a very slow-moving shortwave
drifting over western Kansas during Sunday. This solution weakens
the broad scale ridging aloft, keeping heights reduced, and
encouraging convection. 12z ECMWF favors convective coverage
across the western zones (west of US 83, where they need it the
most). With very little flow aloft, slow-moving storms in a high
precipitable water environment could easily lead to locally heavy
rain Sunday afternoon/evening. Will need to monitor for hydrology
issues if this wet solution holds. With additional clouds and
reduced thicknesses, temperatures will be reduced to the upper 80s
and lower 90s. Some pops were retained for Monday, as high
pressure strengthens over New Mexico, and still doesn`t overly
prohibit convection over SW KS just yet. More upper 80s/lower 90s
on Monday. Dry weather and hotter afternoons are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday, as the high pressure ridge axis aloft intensifies.
Through the long term, ECMWF solutions continually intensify the
subtropical upper high over the Desert SW, peaking at 602 dm near
the Four Corners by next Saturday. ECMWF also shows a curious
shortwave carving its way through Kansas, breaking through the
ridge about Thursday, with the next opportunity for thunderstorms.
12z MEX also shows an uptick in activity for Thursday, but opted
to keep those grids mainly dry for now. Uncertainty by Thursday is
quite high. NBM cooks SW KS with highs of 103-106, but this is not
supported at all by the cooler/wetter ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Light upslope easterly winds will persist through the period.
Thunderstorms could move eastward from the western high plains and
affect KGCK and KLBL this evening and early tonight. Otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 92 67 91 / 20 20 20 40
GCK 67 93 66 90 / 30 20 20 50
EHA 65 93 64 89 / 30 30 50 40
LBL 67 96 67 90 / 30 20 40 40
HYS 68 91 68 90 / 10 10 20 40
P28 70 93 69 93 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
518 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF cycle. Isolated
SHRA and TSRA will remain possible across Southern NM and far W TX
this evening, but probability of occurrence at any TAF site will
be very low. Winds will be largely terrain driven through the
night with light southeasterly winds favored by tomorrow
afternoon. A few outflows could shift winds at TAF sites with
increase in speeds, but confidence of occurrence is very low.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again for
tomorrow afternoon though with slightly better chances for all
sites as compared to today.
&&
Brown
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily storm chances east of the Continental Divide remain the
main focus of the forecast thanks to upper level high pressure
over the region. However, the Sacramento Mountains and
Otero/Hudspeth counties will have the best chances for rain
overall. Temperatures will remain just above seasonal average
each day. Wind will remain light overall, except around
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...
Large upper high with axis extending along the front range of the
Rockies. Over the next day, upper high will have a closed
circulation around the NM bootheel with NW flow aloft over the area.
Some decent moisture is trapped under this high with PW`s in the
0.75 inch range northwest to 1.3 inches over the southeast. Some
weak convection so far over the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon
and with little shear and instability marginal. Do not expect much
organization to the storms, but there is a surface convergence area
over eastern CWA which could help fire some storms and push outflow
west overnight. Went with just 10-20 pops for this evening. GFS is
most aggressive with the moisture push west tonight while the NAM is
least. HRRR seems a reasonable middle ground. Overnight lows will
again be mild with mid 60s to mid 70s lowlands with 50s to lower 60s
mountains.
For Saturday, with some westward push of moisture by morning, and
convergence zone setting up further west, should see more
instability and better storm coverage. As usual, Sacramento
Mountains should see initial development with easterly upslope flow
and then with the NNW flow aloft pushing storms south into Hudspeth
County. Went with 40-50 pops in the Sacs starting around 18Z. CAPE
values tomorrow could be up near 1000J/kg east if dew points remain
in the 50s, but lack of shear should keep storms at best marginally
severe. Think additional storms will develop along the Rio Grande as
well, so included 20-30 pops over eastern lowlands and isolated
western half of CWA. Highs will be tough over the east especially
where convection timing and associated cloud coverage will have a
big effect. Went on high end or above guidance with H85 temps
warming to 30-33C over the west with cooler H85 temps to the east.
Still think 100+ is likely through central CWA lowlands where there
should be little convection until at earliest late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday...
Typical July pattern continues with H5 high pressure settling in
over the forecast area through the period, with plenty of
available moisture. This will create daily chances for
thunderstorms, with little change to the high temperatures,
which will remain a handful of degrees above seasonal averages.
Starting Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms will continue
focusing especially on the Sacramento Mountains, but outflow winds
may cause storm activity to persist for areas east of the Rio
Grande River. Left some 10-20 pops for areas east of the
Continental Divide as we can`t rule out the pesky outflow winds
aiding in storm development further west.
Westerly wind on Sunday and Monday will bring in drier air west
of the Rio Grande Valley, however plenty of moisture will stick
around for our eastern zones, where a weak shortwave rotating
around the upper level high, and orographic effects will help
spark storms in the Sacramento Mountains, with outflow winds
propagating storms into the lowlands.
Tuesday, the southeastern surface flow may allow just enough
moisture to seep into the area allowing the Gila Region, in
addition to the Sacramento Mountains, to see some better storm
chances.
Wednesday, we start seeing global models diverge. The GFS shifts
the high slowly northeast, which will bring in better moisture
into the region, allowing for daily storm chances area-wide. The
ECMWF pushes the high more northwest-ward, which will keep the
best storm chances in the New Mexico Bootheel each day, and dry on
Friday. The Canadian is more similar to the EC, but does bring in
daily rain to the Sacs. With the differences in opinion, have kept
the provided NBM pops.
&&
.AVIATION...P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through 06Z then becoming
SKC-FEW250 northwest and FEW120-150 SCT200-250 southeast.
Isolated to widely scattered 1-3SM TSRA BKN060-080 with gusts to
40KTS possible over the Sacramento Mts, Gila and NM Bootheel this
afternoon and then spreading onto lowlands for this evening.
Greatest coverage will be east of Rio Grande but not mentioned in
TAFS as coverage does not look great. Winds will generally be west
to northwest 5-15KTS but becoming south to southeast east of the
Rio Grande after 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high will dominate the weather pattern for the forecast
period. There is some moisture in place under the high which will
keep a daily chance for storms with greatest coverage east of the
Rio Grande where easterly surface winds will keep low level moisture
in place. Minimum relative humidities will be in the teens along and
west of the river while 20s are expected east on Saturday. Relative
humidities will fall into the teens areawide for the lowlands Sunday
while the Sacs remain in the 20s. Upper high will keep winds
generally in the 5-15 mph range but with vent rates only fair to
good east, but remaining good to very good west.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 101 76 102 / 20 20 20 0
Sierra Blanca 70 94 69 94 / 20 30 20 20
Las Cruces 70 100 70 99 / 10 20 20 0
Alamogordo 73 97 71 97 / 20 30 30 20
Cloudcroft 51 72 54 75 / 30 50 30 40
Truth or Consequences 71 99 71 99 / 0 20 20 20
Silver City 66 92 65 92 / 0 20 0 10
Deming 69 101 68 101 / 10 20 10 0
Lordsburg 68 98 67 99 / 0 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 75 101 76 101 / 20 20 20 0
Dell City 69 97 69 100 / 20 20 20 10
Fort Hancock 73 100 74 102 / 20 20 20 10
Loma Linda 72 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 10
Fabens 73 101 76 101 / 20 20 20 0
Santa Teresa 71 100 71 100 / 10 20 20 0
White Sands HQ 74 100 76 99 / 10 20 20 10
Jornada Range 63 101 69 99 / 10 20 20 10
Hatch 69 101 69 101 / 10 20 20 20
Columbus 72 103 72 101 / 10 20 10 0
Orogrande 74 99 72 99 / 20 20 20 10
Mayhill 57 83 59 86 / 30 50 30 40
Mescalero 54 86 57 86 / 20 50 30 40
Timberon 51 83 56 84 / 30 50 30 40
Winston 55 92 58 92 / 0 20 10 20
Hillsboro 62 98 65 98 / 0 20 10 20
Spaceport 64 99 67 99 / 10 20 20 20
Lake Roberts 50 94 58 93 / 0 20 0 10
Hurley 60 95 63 95 / 0 20 0 10
Cliff 57 98 57 99 / 0 10 0 0
Mule Creek 53 93 65 95 / 0 10 0 0
Faywood 64 96 64 96 / 0 20 10 20
Animas 67 99 67 99 / 10 10 0 0
Hachita 66 99 65 99 / 10 10 10 0
Antelope Wells 67 99 67 98 / 10 20 20 0
Cloverdale 64 94 64 93 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
26-Grzywacz/33/34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
839 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A few isolated showers will continue into this evening. There had
been ongoing activity(lightning strikes/thunder) in the east for
the last several hours but now that the sun has gone down, only
lingering showers remain. Low temperatures will be in the lower
70s so another warm night can be expected. Mostly cloudy skies
will prevail tonight and light patchy fog may be possible in some
areas in the southwest, but widespread fog isn`t expected./JNE/
Prior discussion below:
Tonight and Saturday: The morning thunderstorm activity in our
southwest has pushed south of the CWA and only a small area of light
rain was noted dissipating over our southwest per local radars.
With the exception of east Mississippi, visible satellite imagery
was showing a suppressed cu field over the remainder of our CWA
early this afternoon. Expect that the cu over east Mississippi
will continue to develop with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms tracking to the south southwest into portions of
central Mississippi through early evening before dissipating.
There is also a chance that some of the convection firing up over
central Alabama this afternoon will shift into our east central
and southeast Mississippi zones before dissipating. Per local wet
microburst checklist a few of the storms may produce strong wind
gusts. With the exception of our southwest, temperatures are
expected to rise into the lower 90s this afternoon and combine
with high humidity to raise heat stress concerns. Wl maintain
mention of Limited Heat Stress in our HWO into early evening.
Saturday morning our CWA will still be on the eastern fringe of a
mid level high resulting in northerly flow aloft but during peak
heating our flow aloft will become even lighter than today and
from the east. This should allow for a greater coverage of
convection than we will see today. Afternoon highs will again try
to climb into the lower 90s before the convection occurs. Peak
heat indices are expected to remain just below 105 and for a short
duration therefore wl not include heat stress in our HWO with
this forecast package. /22/
Tomorrow night through Friday...
An active period of weather will persist across the area through the
remainder of the holiday weekend and into next work week. The
forecast starts off tomorrow night with ridging across the Desert
Southwest/Four Corners region and a mean longwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest. Several shortwave perturbations embedded within
the progressive northern stream flow will rotate through the
northern Rockies and into the Canadian Prairies but will remain will
to our north across the upper reaches of the CONUS. Meanwhile,
across the Gulf Coast States, global guidance continues to paint an
active stretch of weather due to weak troughing and a mid/upper-
level low closing off as we head through early next week. Numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through at least Wednesday. A warm and humid airmass will remain in
place with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will help showers
and storms get an early start with coverage increasing through the
mid to late morning hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out any given day, especially where pockets of
stronger instability materialize and in the vicinity of any remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries. With that being said, severe
potential will have to be assessed on a day-to-day basis via the
local microburst checklist and detailed mesoanalysis, so will keep
the HWO/graphics clear. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool
owing to mostly cloudy skies and shower/storm coverage. Highs will
range from the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the
upper 90s to near 100, which will keep heat stress conditions in
check.
Heading into the later portions of the week and next weekend, the
upper weakness is progged to lift northeast into the Tennessee
Valley with the Desert Southwest ridge retrograding slightly further
west. Several disturbances are progged to rotate around the ridge
and into the Mississippi River Valley within a north/northwesterly
flow regime. This synoptic setup could yield increased MCS activity
across the area and will be worth keeping an eye on. Additionally,
while storm chances will remain, temperatures will rebound as the
upper weakness moves away from the area with seasonable summer warmth
returning amidst relatively less cloud cover. /TW/
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Scattered convection out there not really in close proximity to
any particular terminal at this point in the evening. Mainly VFR
forecast overall, with some MVFR vis closer to dawn. Have added
tempo IFR cigs for JAN/HKS later tonight as the HRRR puts those
airfields on the perimeter of some llvl stratus development over
the SW. TS to the north currently not necessarily lining up with
GWO/GLH/GTR, so keeping it out for now. Otherwise, forecast is
similar with attempt to capture afternoon convection tomorrow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 73 91 75 89 / 22 76 28 81
Meridian 73 91 74 88 / 23 72 29 81
Vicksburg 75 91 76 89 / 19 77 37 76
Hattiesburg 73 90 74 88 / 23 77 48 81
Natchez 72 89 74 88 / 18 81 40 81
Greenville 75 89 75 88 / 20 69 21 65
Greenwood 74 91 75 91 / 22 61 19 68
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
JNE
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
911 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
The evening forecast is going about as expected. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to diminish over our CWFA, and most of the
activity has moved down near the I-44 corridor in south central
Missouri. This appears to be being fueled by low level moisture
convergence between a westerly flow from a meso low over eastern
Kansas and the broader east-southeast flow around the broader
upper level ridge over the Midwest. The RAP continues to move this
area of moisture convergence to the west tonight as the flow
around the ridge overwhelms the meso low. It`s possible we`re too
slow in clearing the PoPs, but isolated cells keep popping up
over our central and northeast Missouri counties. With that said,
the slow lowering of our PoPs through the night looks good for
the moment.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
The combination of several vort maxes, a weak and broad north-
south zone of low level convergence, and enhanced diurnal
instability will continue to produced scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and into the evening. There will be potential for
isolated heavy rainfall due to high PWs near 2.00 inches and deep
warm cloud depths resulting in high efficiency and rainfall rates,
and more importantly slow motion within the weak flow aloft. The
bulk of activity will be focused west of the Mississippi River. I
think by late evening the overall coverage should diminish,
however the threat of showers and storms will continue overnight
and into Saturday morning primarily over central MO as the vort
maxes/lobe shifts west-southwest. Present thinking is it will have
exited west of the CWA by midday on Saturday. The remainder of
the Fourth of July afternoon and night look dry and seasonably
hot. The easterly flow around the anticyclone in the vicinity of
the Great Lakes should also advect a bit lower dew points into the
region from the Ohio Valley tempering the humidity a bit.
I think Sunday will remain largely dry with the low level easterly
flow persisting and all indications are any of these pesky vort
maxes will be west of the CWA. Temperatures will remain seasonably
hot.
Glass
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Probably the most complex portion of the extended forecast period is
Monday into Tuesday. The model guidance continues to show a hodge
podge of weak upper lows and vort maxes across the lower Mississippi
Valley which meander north and northeastward through southeast MO
and southern IL bringing deeper moisture and an enhanced
precipitation potential. The greatest precipitation probabilities
will likely be with the diurnal heating cycle, thus in the
afternoon and early evening. That said, confidence in the
placement of these mid/upper level features is limited giving the
weak flow aloft and amidst a synoptic scale environment
characterized by weakly rising heights aloft. I think on Monday
the threat of showers and storms should be confined to southeast
MO and southern IL, with a bit broader reach Tuesday.
From mid-late week the ensemble systems and deterministic models are
trending towards reestablishing the upper ridge through the
Mississippi Valley. There are even signals the upper high centered
near the four corners region will continue to strengthen and
expand through the central U.S. into next weekend accompanied by
850 mb temperatures rising to +20 to +22 or greater. The GFS and
GEFS are most aggressive with this scenario and this would likely
result in an excessive heat episode with highs well into the 90s
and heat indices reaching dangerous levels.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Thunderstorms continue to be the primary concern this evening.
Storms will continue to move across parts of northeast, central
and southeast Missouri through the evening. These storms will be
capable of producing IFR flight conditions and gusty winds up to
25-35kts. The storms are generally expected to weaken and become
more isolated as the evening progresses, however the storms likely
won`t dissipate/move out of the area entirely until well after
06Z. VFR flight conditions are expected outside of
thunderstorms...and there may be a little MVFR fog late tonight in
spots where it rains during the evening.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Scattered showers/tstms will continue into the evening hours across
much of southern CO. The best chances for severe storms should
mainly be east of a line from Colo Spgs, to La Junta to Springfield.
There is also the possibility of some stronger storms developing/moving
over the more vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins
and Spring), which could lead to a flash flood/debris flow risk.
The HRRR has been consistent in showing the chance for heavy rain
over mainly eastern portions of Kiowa County later this evening.
Some of this area has heavy rain last night, and if heavy rain
occurs again, flash flooding could occur. Most of the showers/storms
should be done by 06Z, but some of the models are showing the
possibility of some light lingering activity into the late night
hours.
On Sat, showers/storms will probably start developing over the mtns
in the late morning hours, and become widespread over the mtns and
adjacent locations in the early to mid afternoon, and maybe across
southern areas, like Baca and Las Animas Counties. Toward evening,
storms may start spreading eastward over the plains. With the upper
ridge being overhead, storms should generally be slow moving. If
slow moving storms move over vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden
Pass, Junkins, Spring), there may be a flash flood/debris flow risk.
It is also possible that one or two storms could become severe Sat
afternoon and/or evening across portions of the southeast plains.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Saturday night-Sunday night...Models continue to indicate a weak
wave, embedded within the weak westerly flow aloft, will translate
across eastern Colorado through Saturday night. This wave looks to
keep showers and storms, ongoing over and near the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon, which will push east out across the far
southeast plains and into western Kansas through early Sunday
morning. For Sunday, latest models are indicating the potential for
an mcv from overnight convection to develop near se Colorado and sw
Kansas border, which could be a focus for convection late Sunday
morning and afternoon. Otherwise, there will be enough residual
moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms once
again, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. With
ample moisture in place, with PWATs progged to between 0.75 to 1.25
inches across the area, and weak westerly steering flow, the main
storm threats will continue to be heavy rainfall and the potential
for localized flash flooding, though can`t rule out small hail and
gusty outflow winds with the stronger storms. Temperatures around
the area look to be around seasonal averages.
Monday-Tuesday...Flow aloft progged to become more westerly and
slowly drys out as eastern Pacific energy translates across the
northern Tier of States. There looks to be enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered showers and storms over and near
the higher terrain. Storm, however, will become higher based as
available moisture thins out across the Rockies. Temperatures to
warm back to slightly above seasonal levels through early next
week.
Wednesday-Friday...Latest models continue to trend to much drier air
working into the region within continued generally weak westerly
flow aloft. At this time, afternoon storms look to be fairly
isolated, high based and mainly tied to the higher terrain.
Temperatures look to warm to well above seasonal levels, with highs
in 90s to lower 100`s across the plains, and in the 70s and 80s
across the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020
Showers/tstms could move into the vicinity of KCOS, KPUB and KALS
through the evening, and if this happens and they are strong enough,
there could be a brief period of MVFR conditions. Showers/tstms
could also produce erratic and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Convection from earlier has for the most part dissipated. However,
additional isolated activity has redeveloped across far NE OK and
SW MO ahead of a mid level vort max that is currently in Kansas.
At this time, will keep slight chance pops in through 06z, with
slightly higher pops in after HRRR has been consistent with
increasing coverage later tonight. Previous update was removal of
advisory headlines and adjusting pops. Overnight temperatures
appear in line with latest trends, so will not make changes at
this time. Remaining elements left as they are.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23