Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 07/04/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs, showers and tstms across eastern NM, the OK Panhandle, and parts of the western TX Panhandle will continue moving east and southeast this evening, and may impact KDHT and KGUY. Have included VCTS at those two TAF sites for this evening. It remains problematic whether KAMA will be impacted so did not mention the potential for tstms at that particular site at this time. Radar trends will be closely monitored this evening for psbl amendments. Another round of showers and tstms is forecast to develop later Saturday afternoon. Low confidence in where these showers and storms will iniitally form precludes mentioning this element in the terminal sites until time gets closer. 02 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night... There is a weak boundary across the far NERN Panhandle where combination of higher temps and higher dewpoints is leading to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg. Otherwise MLCAPE is closer to 1000 j/kg or less. SPC RAP analysis shows no CIN in the area, but most CAMs hold onto a tiny bit of a cap and don`t show much convection along the boundary this far west. Wind shear is generally weak, although 0-6 km deep layer shear around 20-25 kts was also noted along the boundary. Better convective chances will remain across the west tonight near a weak SFC trough and where slightly deeper moisture is noted. Deepest portion of the mid-upr level ridge axis is located across NRN Mexico. There may be very subtle ridge roller disturbances at play tonight but nothing very identifiable. This means convection will be mainly more thermodynamically driven and the bulk of it should dye off shortly after sunset before reaching too far east into the CWA. This will favor WRN zones for SCT late aftn and evening storms and suggest only isolated activity is possible along outflow the makes it to central and south central zones. If storms make it as far east as AMA later in the night, it will be because they become elevated and anchor in some mid level moisture with just enough CAPE above, which is possible. If storms do not form along the aforementioned boundary, minimal SVR chances will be assoc w/ pulse microbursts given DCAPE values of 1500-1700 j/kg. The tap into monsoonal moisture will lead to increasing H7 theta-e ridging across the region by Saturday. While moisture profiles improve slightly and the atmosphere is showed uncapped by aftn, MLCAPE is forecast to not be much different than today (perhaps around 1000 j/kg). That said, H5 ridge will position more favorably and models show a more significant H5 short wave and H250 upper diffluence will further support increased coverage of storms in the area. This will also provide a tad better eastward push to storms that form to the west along a weak SFC trough and along the mountains of CO and NM. Unlike today, models also show convective development along the aforementioned boundary that is progged to slide further west into the ERN Panhandles. Given weak SVR parameters, the area is not outlooked for SVR storms but we can`t completely rule out an isolated microburst as is usually the case for summer storms in the Panhandle. Some heavy downpours with these storms will be welcome. Gittinger LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... Sunday the pops keep on coming as the area will see northwest flow aloft and moisture piping in from southeast surface flow. There may be some leftover storms Sunday morning from overnight and then we should catch a break. Hopefully this will allow enough recovery time for the atmosphere by the afternoon to see the next round of storms build and come through the Panhandles. Models suggest there may be some leftover boundary in the area for storms to form on based on forecast 700mb theta-E values. Bulk shear looks to be around 25-30kts, MLCAPE is forecast to be 1500-2000 J/kg, SRH is really weak to near 0; so expect at least strong to some isolated severe storms. There again may be some leftover convection exiting our eastern areas Monday morning. Another round of storms is expected to form in New Mexico in the afternoon and try to push eastward. Some storms may form over the area if we hit convective temp and can break the cap. Tuesday will likely see the storms stay over in New Mexico as we turn a bit more towards northeasterly flow in the midlevels. By mid week the GFS wants to bring some storms to the area, but the ECMWF remains dry. NBM remained dry with this run, so will keep with the blend for now but continue watching this later period for any consistency or more models heading one way or another with precip chances. Beat && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Most of the thunderstorms at this time over the eastern and southeast sections of the forecast area. I adjusted the timing of the pops and backed off most of the showers/tstms from the urban corridor westward. Another round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Looks like things will get going by mid afternoon and continue through mid evening. Tried to adjust the timing for the highest pops in this window. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 A single severe thunderstorm has developed over Douglas County and appears to be weakening as it moves northeastward. Additional weak shower activity has also been brewing over the southern Front Range foothills. Outflow boundaries from these showers may kick off additional thunderstorm activity over the I-25 corridor to the north of Denver in the next few hours. HRRR model runs show the evening convection consolidating as a line over Weld, Morgan, Adams and Lincoln Counties after 6 PM this evening. Southeasterly winds on the plains with dew points in the lower to mid 50s will provide decent inflow to keep showers developing as the progress eastward. The forecast will have scattered thunderstorms on the plains through the late evening. A few cells may produce moderate to large hail at times. Another day with morning sun and afternoon thunderstorms seems to be in store for Saturday. The weak southwesterly flow aloft will continue while moist air and weak low pressure also remains in place. CAPE values from the NAM show lower values tomorrow, compared with this afternoon. So the threat of severe storms should be lower, but scattered afternoon coverage will still be possible. Temperatures should also reach the lower 90s on the plains again. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The ridge of high pressure aloft will remain over Colorado and persist through next week. Afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected to continue over the weekend, but warmer temperatures and drier air aloft will decrease the chances of convection through next week. There will be considerably less precipitation across the area after Monday. Models show 700 hPa temperatures frequently warmer than 60 F over the plains with generally decreasing humidity. Surface high temperatures will be in the 90s most of the week on the plains. There will still be some summer storms, but much decreased in coverage and intensity. Upper level flow will turn slightly more westerly over the weekend, as an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest advances eastward. Flow will turn back to southwesterly from Monday night the rest of the week. Fire concerns on the plains will be increasing through next week due to the warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation, though strong winds are not expected. Heat may also become a concern as temperatures continue to rise, especially for the heat islands of the urban corridor. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 753 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 VFR expect through the period. Outflow from thunderstorms east and southeast of terminals will enhance the east/southeast winds this evening, but then taper off to normal drainage after midnight. Another round of thunderstorms to move through the terminals on Saturday afternoon sometime on or after 20z. Could see brief periods of ILS restrictions as thunderstorms move across the terminals. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Cooper SHORT TERM...Dankers LONG TERM...DiRenzo AVIATION...Cooper
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 ...Updated for aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Satellite imagery at midday depicts an obvious mesoscale convective vortex over central Kansas. All showers and thunderstorms had ended across SW KS, with a mixture of mid layer clouds and convective debris. Light E/SE winds prevailed at midday, and will continue to prevail through this afternoon, keeping boundary layer moisture replenished. Dewpoints will be commonly in the 60s this afternoon, yielding CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. With a myriad of boundaries floating around, and this much moisture/instability, can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm anywhere this afternoon. That said, the vast majority of convection through this evening is expected to remain focused to our east, across central Kansas, associated with the MCV, and with the orographically- enhanced lee trough across eastern Colorado. In between, most of SW KS will remain dry. The most recent iterations of the HRRR do show a weakly organized convective complex arriving on the CO/KS border around 7-8 pm. Along with WFO Goodland, raised pops for this activity. Marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC is warranted, but appears to be mainly associated with the convection arriving from Colorado across the western counties this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may advance as far east as US 83 by midnight before weakening. Expecting 1-3 degrees of "cooling" on Independence Day, as models shave 850 mb temperatures down about 2C over Friday. An easterly component in the boundary layer will also keep moisture available, with dewpoints holding in the 50s and 60s. In typical summer fashion, the majority of zones will be dry during the daylight hours Saturday. 12z NAM indicates any convection favoring the western zones (west of US 83) after 4 pm, and pops were aligned to favor these western zones Saturday afternoon/evening. Most fireworks displays will have no weather impacts, but those outdoor events along/west of US 83 have the best chance of having a thunderstorm in the vicinity at sunset. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 NBM pop grids show an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday/Sunday night, with coverage in the 30-50% range. This is supported by 12z ECMWF which shows a very slow-moving shortwave drifting over western Kansas during Sunday. This solution weakens the broad scale ridging aloft, keeping heights reduced, and encouraging convection. 12z ECMWF favors convective coverage across the western zones (west of US 83, where they need it the most). With very little flow aloft, slow-moving storms in a high precipitable water environment could easily lead to locally heavy rain Sunday afternoon/evening. Will need to monitor for hydrology issues if this wet solution holds. With additional clouds and reduced thicknesses, temperatures will be reduced to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Some pops were retained for Monday, as high pressure strengthens over New Mexico, and still doesn`t overly prohibit convection over SW KS just yet. More upper 80s/lower 90s on Monday. Dry weather and hotter afternoons are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, as the high pressure ridge axis aloft intensifies. Through the long term, ECMWF solutions continually intensify the subtropical upper high over the Desert SW, peaking at 602 dm near the Four Corners by next Saturday. ECMWF also shows a curious shortwave carving its way through Kansas, breaking through the ridge about Thursday, with the next opportunity for thunderstorms. 12z MEX also shows an uptick in activity for Thursday, but opted to keep those grids mainly dry for now. Uncertainty by Thursday is quite high. NBM cooks SW KS with highs of 103-106, but this is not supported at all by the cooler/wetter ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 709 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Light upslope easterly winds will persist through the period. Thunderstorms could move eastward from the western high plains and affect KGCK and KLBL this evening and early tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 92 67 91 / 20 20 20 40 GCK 67 93 66 90 / 30 20 20 50 EHA 65 93 64 89 / 30 30 50 40 LBL 67 96 67 90 / 30 20 40 40 HYS 68 91 68 90 / 10 10 20 40 P28 70 93 69 93 / 20 10 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Finch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
518 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF cycle. Isolated SHRA and TSRA will remain possible across Southern NM and far W TX this evening, but probability of occurrence at any TAF site will be very low. Winds will be largely terrain driven through the night with light southeasterly winds favored by tomorrow afternoon. A few outflows could shift winds at TAF sites with increase in speeds, but confidence of occurrence is very low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again for tomorrow afternoon though with slightly better chances for all sites as compared to today. && Brown .PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Daily storm chances east of the Continental Divide remain the main focus of the forecast thanks to upper level high pressure over the region. However, the Sacramento Mountains and Otero/Hudspeth counties will have the best chances for rain overall. Temperatures will remain just above seasonal average each day. Wind will remain light overall, except around thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday... Large upper high with axis extending along the front range of the Rockies. Over the next day, upper high will have a closed circulation around the NM bootheel with NW flow aloft over the area. Some decent moisture is trapped under this high with PW`s in the 0.75 inch range northwest to 1.3 inches over the southeast. Some weak convection so far over the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon and with little shear and instability marginal. Do not expect much organization to the storms, but there is a surface convergence area over eastern CWA which could help fire some storms and push outflow west overnight. Went with just 10-20 pops for this evening. GFS is most aggressive with the moisture push west tonight while the NAM is least. HRRR seems a reasonable middle ground. Overnight lows will again be mild with mid 60s to mid 70s lowlands with 50s to lower 60s mountains. For Saturday, with some westward push of moisture by morning, and convergence zone setting up further west, should see more instability and better storm coverage. As usual, Sacramento Mountains should see initial development with easterly upslope flow and then with the NNW flow aloft pushing storms south into Hudspeth County. Went with 40-50 pops in the Sacs starting around 18Z. CAPE values tomorrow could be up near 1000J/kg east if dew points remain in the 50s, but lack of shear should keep storms at best marginally severe. Think additional storms will develop along the Rio Grande as well, so included 20-30 pops over eastern lowlands and isolated western half of CWA. Highs will be tough over the east especially where convection timing and associated cloud coverage will have a big effect. Went on high end or above guidance with H85 temps warming to 30-33C over the west with cooler H85 temps to the east. Still think 100+ is likely through central CWA lowlands where there should be little convection until at earliest late afternoon. && .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday... Typical July pattern continues with H5 high pressure settling in over the forecast area through the period, with plenty of available moisture. This will create daily chances for thunderstorms, with little change to the high temperatures, which will remain a handful of degrees above seasonal averages. Starting Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms will continue focusing especially on the Sacramento Mountains, but outflow winds may cause storm activity to persist for areas east of the Rio Grande River. Left some 10-20 pops for areas east of the Continental Divide as we can`t rule out the pesky outflow winds aiding in storm development further west. Westerly wind on Sunday and Monday will bring in drier air west of the Rio Grande Valley, however plenty of moisture will stick around for our eastern zones, where a weak shortwave rotating around the upper level high, and orographic effects will help spark storms in the Sacramento Mountains, with outflow winds propagating storms into the lowlands. Tuesday, the southeastern surface flow may allow just enough moisture to seep into the area allowing the Gila Region, in addition to the Sacramento Mountains, to see some better storm chances. Wednesday, we start seeing global models diverge. The GFS shifts the high slowly northeast, which will bring in better moisture into the region, allowing for daily storm chances area-wide. The ECMWF pushes the high more northwest-ward, which will keep the best storm chances in the New Mexico Bootheel each day, and dry on Friday. The Canadian is more similar to the EC, but does bring in daily rain to the Sacs. With the differences in opinion, have kept the provided NBM pops. && .AVIATION...P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through 06Z then becoming SKC-FEW250 northwest and FEW120-150 SCT200-250 southeast. Isolated to widely scattered 1-3SM TSRA BKN060-080 with gusts to 40KTS possible over the Sacramento Mts, Gila and NM Bootheel this afternoon and then spreading onto lowlands for this evening. Greatest coverage will be east of Rio Grande but not mentioned in TAFS as coverage does not look great. Winds will generally be west to northwest 5-15KTS but becoming south to southeast east of the Rio Grande after 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Upper high will dominate the weather pattern for the forecast period. There is some moisture in place under the high which will keep a daily chance for storms with greatest coverage east of the Rio Grande where easterly surface winds will keep low level moisture in place. Minimum relative humidities will be in the teens along and west of the river while 20s are expected east on Saturday. Relative humidities will fall into the teens areawide for the lowlands Sunday while the Sacs remain in the 20s. Upper high will keep winds generally in the 5-15 mph range but with vent rates only fair to good east, but remaining good to very good west. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 101 76 102 / 20 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 70 94 69 94 / 20 30 20 20 Las Cruces 70 100 70 99 / 10 20 20 0 Alamogordo 73 97 71 97 / 20 30 30 20 Cloudcroft 51 72 54 75 / 30 50 30 40 Truth or Consequences 71 99 71 99 / 0 20 20 20 Silver City 66 92 65 92 / 0 20 0 10 Deming 69 101 68 101 / 10 20 10 0 Lordsburg 68 98 67 99 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 76 101 / 20 20 20 0 Dell City 69 97 69 100 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 73 100 74 102 / 20 20 20 10 Loma Linda 72 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 10 Fabens 73 101 76 101 / 20 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 100 71 100 / 10 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 74 100 76 99 / 10 20 20 10 Jornada Range 63 101 69 99 / 10 20 20 10 Hatch 69 101 69 101 / 10 20 20 20 Columbus 72 103 72 101 / 10 20 10 0 Orogrande 74 99 72 99 / 20 20 20 10 Mayhill 57 83 59 86 / 30 50 30 40 Mescalero 54 86 57 86 / 20 50 30 40 Timberon 51 83 56 84 / 30 50 30 40 Winston 55 92 58 92 / 0 20 10 20 Hillsboro 62 98 65 98 / 0 20 10 20 Spaceport 64 99 67 99 / 10 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 50 94 58 93 / 0 20 0 10 Hurley 60 95 63 95 / 0 20 0 10 Cliff 57 98 57 99 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 53 93 65 95 / 0 10 0 0 Faywood 64 96 64 96 / 0 20 10 20 Animas 67 99 67 99 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 66 99 65 99 / 10 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 67 98 / 10 20 20 0 Cloverdale 64 94 64 93 / 10 20 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 26-Grzywacz/33/34
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
839 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... A few isolated showers will continue into this evening. There had been ongoing activity(lightning strikes/thunder) in the east for the last several hours but now that the sun has gone down, only lingering showers remain. Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s so another warm night can be expected. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail tonight and light patchy fog may be possible in some areas in the southwest, but widespread fog isn`t expected./JNE/ Prior discussion below: Tonight and Saturday: The morning thunderstorm activity in our southwest has pushed south of the CWA and only a small area of light rain was noted dissipating over our southwest per local radars. With the exception of east Mississippi, visible satellite imagery was showing a suppressed cu field over the remainder of our CWA early this afternoon. Expect that the cu over east Mississippi will continue to develop with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking to the south southwest into portions of central Mississippi through early evening before dissipating. There is also a chance that some of the convection firing up over central Alabama this afternoon will shift into our east central and southeast Mississippi zones before dissipating. Per local wet microburst checklist a few of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. With the exception of our southwest, temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 90s this afternoon and combine with high humidity to raise heat stress concerns. Wl maintain mention of Limited Heat Stress in our HWO into early evening. Saturday morning our CWA will still be on the eastern fringe of a mid level high resulting in northerly flow aloft but during peak heating our flow aloft will become even lighter than today and from the east. This should allow for a greater coverage of convection than we will see today. Afternoon highs will again try to climb into the lower 90s before the convection occurs. Peak heat indices are expected to remain just below 105 and for a short duration therefore wl not include heat stress in our HWO with this forecast package. /22/ Tomorrow night through Friday... An active period of weather will persist across the area through the remainder of the holiday weekend and into next work week. The forecast starts off tomorrow night with ridging across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region and a mean longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Several shortwave perturbations embedded within the progressive northern stream flow will rotate through the northern Rockies and into the Canadian Prairies but will remain will to our north across the upper reaches of the CONUS. Meanwhile, across the Gulf Coast States, global guidance continues to paint an active stretch of weather due to weak troughing and a mid/upper- level low closing off as we head through early next week. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through at least Wednesday. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This will help showers and storms get an early start with coverage increasing through the mid to late morning hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out any given day, especially where pockets of stronger instability materialize and in the vicinity of any remnant MCVs and/or outflow boundaries. With that being said, severe potential will have to be assessed on a day-to-day basis via the local microburst checklist and detailed mesoanalysis, so will keep the HWO/graphics clear. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool owing to mostly cloudy skies and shower/storm coverage. Highs will range from the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100, which will keep heat stress conditions in check. Heading into the later portions of the week and next weekend, the upper weakness is progged to lift northeast into the Tennessee Valley with the Desert Southwest ridge retrograding slightly further west. Several disturbances are progged to rotate around the ridge and into the Mississippi River Valley within a north/northwesterly flow regime. This synoptic setup could yield increased MCS activity across the area and will be worth keeping an eye on. Additionally, while storm chances will remain, temperatures will rebound as the upper weakness moves away from the area with seasonable summer warmth returning amidst relatively less cloud cover. /TW/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered convection out there not really in close proximity to any particular terminal at this point in the evening. Mainly VFR forecast overall, with some MVFR vis closer to dawn. Have added tempo IFR cigs for JAN/HKS later tonight as the HRRR puts those airfields on the perimeter of some llvl stratus development over the SW. TS to the north currently not necessarily lining up with GWO/GLH/GTR, so keeping it out for now. Otherwise, forecast is similar with attempt to capture afternoon convection tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 91 75 89 / 22 76 28 81 Meridian 73 91 74 88 / 23 72 29 81 Vicksburg 75 91 76 89 / 19 77 37 76 Hattiesburg 73 90 74 88 / 23 77 48 81 Natchez 72 89 74 88 / 18 81 40 81 Greenville 75 89 75 88 / 20 69 21 65 Greenwood 74 91 75 91 / 22 61 19 68 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ JNE
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
911 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The evening forecast is going about as expected. Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish over our CWFA, and most of the activity has moved down near the I-44 corridor in south central Missouri. This appears to be being fueled by low level moisture convergence between a westerly flow from a meso low over eastern Kansas and the broader east-southeast flow around the broader upper level ridge over the Midwest. The RAP continues to move this area of moisture convergence to the west tonight as the flow around the ridge overwhelms the meso low. It`s possible we`re too slow in clearing the PoPs, but isolated cells keep popping up over our central and northeast Missouri counties. With that said, the slow lowering of our PoPs through the night looks good for the moment. Carney && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 The combination of several vort maxes, a weak and broad north- south zone of low level convergence, and enhanced diurnal instability will continue to produced scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. There will be potential for isolated heavy rainfall due to high PWs near 2.00 inches and deep warm cloud depths resulting in high efficiency and rainfall rates, and more importantly slow motion within the weak flow aloft. The bulk of activity will be focused west of the Mississippi River. I think by late evening the overall coverage should diminish, however the threat of showers and storms will continue overnight and into Saturday morning primarily over central MO as the vort maxes/lobe shifts west-southwest. Present thinking is it will have exited west of the CWA by midday on Saturday. The remainder of the Fourth of July afternoon and night look dry and seasonably hot. The easterly flow around the anticyclone in the vicinity of the Great Lakes should also advect a bit lower dew points into the region from the Ohio Valley tempering the humidity a bit. I think Sunday will remain largely dry with the low level easterly flow persisting and all indications are any of these pesky vort maxes will be west of the CWA. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot. Glass .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Probably the most complex portion of the extended forecast period is Monday into Tuesday. The model guidance continues to show a hodge podge of weak upper lows and vort maxes across the lower Mississippi Valley which meander north and northeastward through southeast MO and southern IL bringing deeper moisture and an enhanced precipitation potential. The greatest precipitation probabilities will likely be with the diurnal heating cycle, thus in the afternoon and early evening. That said, confidence in the placement of these mid/upper level features is limited giving the weak flow aloft and amidst a synoptic scale environment characterized by weakly rising heights aloft. I think on Monday the threat of showers and storms should be confined to southeast MO and southern IL, with a bit broader reach Tuesday. From mid-late week the ensemble systems and deterministic models are trending towards reestablishing the upper ridge through the Mississippi Valley. There are even signals the upper high centered near the four corners region will continue to strengthen and expand through the central U.S. into next weekend accompanied by 850 mb temperatures rising to +20 to +22 or greater. The GFS and GEFS are most aggressive with this scenario and this would likely result in an excessive heat episode with highs well into the 90s and heat indices reaching dangerous levels. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Thunderstorms continue to be the primary concern this evening. Storms will continue to move across parts of northeast, central and southeast Missouri through the evening. These storms will be capable of producing IFR flight conditions and gusty winds up to 25-35kts. The storms are generally expected to weaken and become more isolated as the evening progresses, however the storms likely won`t dissipate/move out of the area entirely until well after 06Z. VFR flight conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms...and there may be a little MVFR fog late tonight in spots where it rains during the evening. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Scattered showers/tstms will continue into the evening hours across much of southern CO. The best chances for severe storms should mainly be east of a line from Colo Spgs, to La Junta to Springfield. There is also the possibility of some stronger storms developing/moving over the more vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins and Spring), which could lead to a flash flood/debris flow risk. The HRRR has been consistent in showing the chance for heavy rain over mainly eastern portions of Kiowa County later this evening. Some of this area has heavy rain last night, and if heavy rain occurs again, flash flooding could occur. Most of the showers/storms should be done by 06Z, but some of the models are showing the possibility of some light lingering activity into the late night hours. On Sat, showers/storms will probably start developing over the mtns in the late morning hours, and become widespread over the mtns and adjacent locations in the early to mid afternoon, and maybe across southern areas, like Baca and Las Animas Counties. Toward evening, storms may start spreading eastward over the plains. With the upper ridge being overhead, storms should generally be slow moving. If slow moving storms move over vulnerable burn scars (Decker, Hayden Pass, Junkins, Spring), there may be a flash flood/debris flow risk. It is also possible that one or two storms could become severe Sat afternoon and/or evening across portions of the southeast plains. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Saturday night-Sunday night...Models continue to indicate a weak wave, embedded within the weak westerly flow aloft, will translate across eastern Colorado through Saturday night. This wave looks to keep showers and storms, ongoing over and near the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, which will push east out across the far southeast plains and into western Kansas through early Sunday morning. For Sunday, latest models are indicating the potential for an mcv from overnight convection to develop near se Colorado and sw Kansas border, which could be a focus for convection late Sunday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, there will be enough residual moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms once again, with the best coverage over and near the higher terrain. With ample moisture in place, with PWATs progged to between 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the area, and weak westerly steering flow, the main storm threats will continue to be heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding, though can`t rule out small hail and gusty outflow winds with the stronger storms. Temperatures around the area look to be around seasonal averages. Monday-Tuesday...Flow aloft progged to become more westerly and slowly drys out as eastern Pacific energy translates across the northern Tier of States. There looks to be enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered showers and storms over and near the higher terrain. Storm, however, will become higher based as available moisture thins out across the Rockies. Temperatures to warm back to slightly above seasonal levels through early next week. Wednesday-Friday...Latest models continue to trend to much drier air working into the region within continued generally weak westerly flow aloft. At this time, afternoon storms look to be fairly isolated, high based and mainly tied to the higher terrain. Temperatures look to warm to well above seasonal levels, with highs in 90s to lower 100`s across the plains, and in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 319 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2020 Showers/tstms could move into the vicinity of KCOS, KPUB and KALS through the evening, and if this happens and they are strong enough, there could be a brief period of MVFR conditions. Showers/tstms could also produce erratic and gusty winds. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2020 .DISCUSSION... Convection from earlier has for the most part dissipated. However, additional isolated activity has redeveloped across far NE OK and SW MO ahead of a mid level vort max that is currently in Kansas. At this time, will keep slight chance pops in through 06z, with slightly higher pops in after HRRR has been consistent with increasing coverage later tonight. Previous update was removal of advisory headlines and adjusting pops. Overnight temperatures appear in line with latest trends, so will not make changes at this time. Remaining elements left as they are. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23