Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/19/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE MVFR vis reductions will be the main concern through the western half of the state stretching into the RGV tonight into Friday morning. A stalled backdoor frontal boundary through northeastern NM will surge south and west overnight, bringing an east canyon winds to KABQ by the 09Z-12Z timeframe peaking by 12Z. This could temporarily increase vis at KABQ by mixing up the smoke a bit. Of course there is high uncertainty with how those ingredients will indeed mix together. Low cigs are likely at KLVS and possibly as far as KSAF behind the backdoor front early Friday morning. Light -ra and -shra may reach parts of northeastern NM from KRTN to KCAO to KTCC. The front reaches KROW bringing a northerly wind shift near 11Z. Smoke looks to mix out around 18Z with breezy southwest winds expected to return during the afternoon hours through much of NM expect the far northeastern plains. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Smoke will continue to blow in from wild fires in Arizona into New Mexico tonight and through Friday afternoon and night. A backdoor cold front makes its way into the northeast and northern mountains later today into tonight and across the eastern central areas Friday. Storms are expected in the afternoon on Friday favoring the far eastern plains. Some storms could be strong to severe. Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue for eastern New Mexico into Saturday. High pressure builds over Arizona Sunday, bringing a drier and warmer regime to the Land of Enchantment through Monday. Another backdoor front pushes into northeastern New Mexico Monday night, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to eastern New Mexico Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The rest of the area will remain dry with above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... Smoke from wildfires to our southwest and west which covered a large portion of central NM this morning has tended to become more diffuse as it`s continued to be transported eastward. Meanwhile, this afternoon`s smoke plumes were starting to spread into portions of western NM. HRRR smoke model continues to indicate another large batch of smoke will impact much of western and central NM later tonight and early Friday. While Albuquerque has a Health Alert in place for tonight, there is potential for additional air quality products to be issued as the situation develops. Otherwise, a front has pushed into northeast NM, and this boundary will set up the chance for showers and storms there tonight. A relatively light to briefly moderate east wind may push into the RGV late tonight through midmorning Friday. Any moisture increase associated with the east wind would most likely mix out in the afternoon, but can`t rule out isolated dry convection over the north central if its a bit stronger than models suggest. The change in low level winds may also briefly help or aggravate the smoke situation in the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro. On Friday, the front in the eastern plains will also lead to the potential for a few strong to severe storms. SPC Day 2 outlook has brought the marginal risk westward to the just east of the Pecos Valley, with the slight risk brushing our east central border with TX. Highs Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal over the northeast, and within a few degrees of normal elsewhere. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Chances for precipitation will linger as a trough begins to eject into the Great Plains, with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring the far northeast and eastern plains Saturday. High pressure begins to build over AZ starting Sunday and is forecasted to track into NM through the week, bringing drier air and warmer temperatures in its wake due to rising heights. Lingering moisture in the NE may result in a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the far northeastern portions of the state Sunday afternoon through the night. Embedded disturbances within the upper level pattern will shoot down NW flow Monday night, as a backdoor front works its way into northern and eastern NM. Temperatures east of the central mtn chain will cool 4-6 degrees. Meanwhile, moisture behind the backdoor front is pulled into NM, reintroducing the potential for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern NM Tuesday and across the central mtn chain Wednesday. In the presence of NW flow aloft, the potential exists for a few of these storms to become strong to severe both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A dryline looks to setup Thursday afternoon across eastern NM, along with the advection of moisture from the south. Currently, the GFS and CMC are in agreement with placing the boundary across the eastern plains, while the ECMWF positions it more along the TX border. The GFS shows above average run-to-run consistency for PWATs, while the NAEFS suggests little departure from normal. While it`s too early to nail down timing and placement, this may be a feature to watch moving into next week, especially given the possibility of persisting NW flow aloft. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry conditions to continue over western and central New Mexico through Sunday with poor overnight humidity recoveries, single digit humidities and high Haines. In fact, 5-10 consecutive hours of single digit humidities are forecast for much of the RGV westward each day Friday through Sunday with Sunday being the driest overall. However, winds in general won`t be strong enough to trigger a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. Low level moisture will slosh over the eastern plains thanks to a front bringing cooler temperatures along with a few wetting showers and storms tonight through Saturday. Meager low level moisture may bleed into the RGV early Friday morning on a light to briefly moderate east wind and should mix out later in the day, but can`t totally rule out a cloud buildup or dry shower Friday afternoon over the north central if the low level moisture pushes a bit farther west and more strongly than models suggest will happen. A strong upper ridge of high pressure will build over western and into central New Mexico next week. Warmer than normal and very dry conditions with poor overnight humidity recoveries will continue to plague western and central areas. A front may bring showers and storms to the east next Tuesday, any moisture which bleeds into the Rio Grande Valley will result in mostly dry activity. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR conds expected through the period. SCT120 SCT/BKN250 east of the Rio Grande Valley until 03Z. Some areas of smoke spreading to much of the area after 07Z. Did reduce visby at KTCS due to this; high-res models also show possibility of KDMN visby being reduced some but left out of TAF for now. Narrow area of potential LLWS from around 06Z-12Z over southern Luna, southern Dona Ana, and El Paso Counties. Winds west 10-15 kts til 03Z, then variable less than 8 kts. Winds increasing again after 19Z to west 12-17G25 kts. && Hefner .PREV DISCUSSION...223 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020... .SYNOPSIS... We will be dry with very warm weather on Friday and into the weekend with our high temperatures running a few degrees above average and we will have occasionally breezy winds in the afternoon. For the first part of next week, we will have hot temperatures with high temperatures in the lowlands several degrees above the century mark. For the middle part of next week, we will continue our very warm to hot temperatures with just a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday... Very persistent pattern over area will continue through Friday. Very dry air has settled in areawide with dew points mainly in the teens and 20s allowing for overnight lows to fall off nicely again, but could be even cooler if winds die off more than expected. Main concern tonight will actually be smoke as lower level winds turn more westerly and bring in some smoke from fires in AZ and the Gila region. 12Z HRRR smoke showing greater smoke coverage over northern half of CWA compared to last night and included in the forecast, but visibilities not expected to be reduced to much lower than 5SM. For Friday, little change from today with highs over the lowlands mainly in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies. Models continue to try and bring a little bit of low level moisture into southern Hudspeth County and that area could see an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds will remain west-southwest at 10-20 mph. && .LONG TERM... Our very warm and dry weather will continue through the weekend. By Friday evening our upper level trough to our north will continue to sweep drier air into the region. So we will continue with little to no chances for rain as we move through the weekend. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will run a few degrees above average with lowland temperatures at or a degree or two below average. On Monday, upper level high pressure building along the West Coast, will begin to nose into our region. As the ridge builds in we will see our high temperatures take another uptick. Most lowland locations on Monday will be several degrees above the century mark. Starting Monday night the models begin to diverge a little on the details of the forecast. Initially both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the upper level ridge centered along the NM/AZ border, but the GFS allows an east push of moisture into the region, so that by Tuesday afternoon dewpoint temperatures in the GFS model are a little over 50 while the EC model still has dewpoint readings in the 30`s. If the GFS is right that will be enough moisture to give us some decent clouds and a chance for rain which could knock a few degrees off of our high temperatures Tuesday afternoon, but if the EC is correct we will continue our hot (maybe very hot) and dry weather. For Wednesday, both models stick to their respective forecasts. For now I have kept most of the area hot and dry for Tuesday and Wednesday with just a slight chance for rain in eastern Otero and eastern Hudspeth Counties. By Thursday the GFS keeps the upper level ridge in place but starts to dry us out, while the EC model, breaks down the ridge and replaces it with a dry and zonal (west to east) flow. Either solution looks to keep us dry for Thursday and Friday, with the GFS a few degrees warmer than the EC solution. Based simply on the time of year (June is our hottest month), I`m leaning more toward the hotter GFS solution. && .FIRE WEATHER... Little change in weather pattern for the next few days which will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the lowlands and mainly dry conditions. The only exception to the dry conditions through the weekend could be southern Hudspeth County. Relative humidities will continue to fall into the single digits to lower teens and winds generally 10-20 mph out of the west to southwest. Vent rates will be very good to excellent but The Haines Index will be in the 5 to 6 range. Going into early next week, very hot temperatures expected for the first part of the week, but a back door front could move into eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will bring cooler, more moist conditions to areas east of the Rio Grande and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mainly hot and dry conditions to areas west of the river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 92 65 93 / 0 20 0 0 Las Cruces 63 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 98 69 99 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 66 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 71 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 66 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 69 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 61 96 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 96 65 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 47 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 50 87 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 94 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 56 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 93 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1039 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Latest radar mosaic is showing showers and thunderstorms entering northwest Missouri late this evening. Current movement of this line is to the southeast, and the CAM guidance is showing this activity weakening as it moves into the upper ridge overnight. The RAP is still showing some weak low level moisture convergence over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois late tonight into tomorrow morning, so have maintained a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rest of the forecast still looks good and required little change. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 500mb analysis as well as mid/upper level water vapor imagery from GOES-E show a mid/upper level ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast into the Upper Midwest. This ridge has been, in part, responsible for the tranquil weather the Mid Mississippi Valley has been experiencing for the past few days. Short range guidance is in good synoptic agreement that this ridge will drift east through Friday night, as well as be attenuated by interacting with the large cut off low over the Ohio and upper Tennessee Vallies, and a second cut off low approaching from upstream over south-central Canada. The surface reflection of the low over Canada is pushing a cold front slowly to the east southeast through the Plains into the Midwest. What little upper level support there is to keep the front moving will outrun it to the northwest and the front is expected to stall close to a line extending from Des Moines, to St. Joseph, to Tulsa tonight, and the front will be a focus for convective development through the weekend. Unfortunately, the movement of the front will be be largely driven by that convection, so it`s going to be tough to predict. Current thinking is that the ongoing storms in the vicinity of the front in Nebraska/Iowa/South Dakota will increase in coverage somewhat this evening, and develop further to the southeast overnight tonight due to weak to moderate moisture convergence on a 20-30kt low level jet ahead of the front. A few of the storms could make it into our central and northeast Missouri counties and possibly west central illinois after 12Z Friday. The chance for storms should gradually increase with daytime heating, but low level forcing will be hard to find, and the dying upper level ridge will still be over the Mid Mississippi Valley, so while I think there will be storms, I`m less confident in how much area they`ll cover. Best chance for storms should stay over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois where the upper level ridging will be weakest. Carney .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 As mentioned before, the motion of the effective front will largely be driven by least through Saturday afternoon. The airmass over the Mid Mississippi Valley will be warm and humid without much CINH to cap convection. However, low level forcing to initiate storms will once again be lacking on Saturday. Like Friday, I feel there is an excellent environment to support storms Saturday afternoon with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/Kg and even 20- 30kt deep layer shear (potential for some large hail and 60 mph wind) but I don`t have a lot of confidence in the coverage. One supporting element will be a short wave trough moving out of the Plains into western Missouri/Iowa around 00Z Saturday. This will force cyclogenesis on the front and finally give it a kick to the east Saturday night; but by the time the front makes it into central Missouri it`ll be 06Z and later, and the instability will be greatly diminished. Again high confidence there will be storms Saturday night, but low confidence in coverage/intensity. The front doesn`t get too far Saturday night according to the ECMWF and GFS, and it stalls over southern Missouri/Illinois where more storms will be possible. There isn`t a huge change in airmass north of the front on Sunday, so it still looks warm enough and humid enough to support convection just about anywhere in the CWFA...but the front will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development. Medium range models are in general agreement that the front will wave back to the north Sunday night into Monday, and then a trough will try to push it south through the state Monday night into Tuesday. GFS and ECMWF differ on the amplitude of the trof and therefore how much upper support the front will have to move south (at least initially). Consequently the temperature forecast becomes fairly low confidence by midweek. Looking at ensemble guidance, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles are separated by as much as 10 degrees next Thursday at St. Louis! Regardless, the trend in temperatures is downward from the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday down into the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Terminals are expected to remain dry and VFR through at least 12Z. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the morning on Friday at KUIN and KCOU, but a better chance during the afternoon and evening at these two sites when scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across central Missouri and west central Illinois. Any thunderstorms will have the potential produce MVFR/possible IFR visibilities and ceilings. These thunderstorms are expected to stay northwest of the St. Louis area terminals through the period. Winds will remain light through the period. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1057 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .UPDATE... /issued 845 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/ The center of the eastern CONUS upper low has moved into the OH Valley but it will remain quasi-stationary for another 36 hours or so. Eventually, the trough over the Prairie Provinces will shift east and kick it out over the weekend. We will see a few thin, high clouds overnight as the northerly flow on the backside of the eastern trough taps into the moisture from the convection in the Plains. Otherwise, we`re looking at conditions similar to the past several nights with benign weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Overnight lows will knocked down a couple of degrees across portions of west TN and north MS where temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 60s. Otherwise, no notable changes were necessary. Looking ahead to Friday, dewpoints are forecast to be slightly higher in the afternoon with temperatures at or just above today`s highs. That should push heat indices up to near 90F by peak heating. There is a potential for a few afternoon showers, or perhaps a stray thunderstorm, but coverage will remain isolated at best. The HRRR looks to be a bit more aggressive than the other CAMs but warm mid-level temps will really limit instability. That said, slight chances PoPs may be in order with the next forecast package. MJ && .DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/ Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the 80s. So far, not much in the way of thunderstorms have develop across north Mississippi. If any thunderstorms do develop later this afternoon, they should dissipate before sunset. A weak upper level ridge will remain in place over the region for the next couple of days. This will keep dry weather across the Mid-South through Saturday evening. Temperatures will remain near normal for tonight through Friday night but become warmer on Saturday as high reach the lower 90s. A cold front will move into southern Missouri by Saturday night with a few thunderstorms possibly reaching northern sections of the Mid-South by late Saturday night. The front will stall out north of the region so scattered thunderstorms will be possible for both Sunday and Monday over much of the Mid-South. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal for both days. The front will move back toward the region on Tuesday and reach northern sections of the Mid-South on Wednesday and next Thursday. This will lead to a better chance of thunderstorms for all three days. With more clouds and a better chance of rain expected, temperatures will be a few degrees below normal during this period. ARS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Set VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 to 30 hours. Winds will generally remain light and variable through the period. KRM && && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
916 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Isolated showers continue to persist across locations south of I-40/east of I-65 eastward to around I-24 Corridor this evening. Will update suite of forecast products to reflect this continuance for another hour or two. Latest HRRR model initializing well with isolated showers occuring just after 9 PM CDT north of Upper Cumberland Region in southern KY. HRRR depicting potential of isolated showers through night across Upper Cumberland Region. Thus, will update forecast to reflect. Will make minor adjustments to sky coverage through tonight, generally trending toward mostly clear skies west, partly cloudy skies central, and a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy mix eastern portions of mid state. Will tweak hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction grids. Current temperature trends in line with forecasted lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Update of suite of forecast products out shortly. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...VFR conditions should prevail thru 19/24Z. Some iso diurnally driven shwrs across mid state thru 19/02Z, but areal development and impact confidence not high enough to mention at terminals/vcnty. CU/AC diurnal driven cloudiness should dissipate by around 19/02Z. Exception CSV where atmospheric moisture greatest. Expect sct/bkn patches of CI to stream across terminals thru 19/24Z with it being prevalent cloud coverage CKV/BNA/MQY thru 19/24Z also. With diurnal heating, orographic influences, and proximity to back side of upper trough axis, not enough confidence to mention at CSV terminal, but certainly can not rule out in vcnty tstms developing 19/17Z-19/24Z. Surface winds generally light W/NW thru 19/24Z. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......JB Wright AVIATION........JB Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
909 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Shifted higher PoPs to later tonight for northwestern and northern OK. Currently, the cold front is located just NW of Harper County into SW KS. Moist convection is beginning to develop along it over Beaver Co., and should slowly shift southward into NW OK during the overnight hours. The HRRR and NAM12 seem to have a good handle on this scenarios so leaned timing towards these 2 solutions. A deepening cold pool and intensifying LLJ should maintain this precipitation through the early morning hours Friday as it slides southward into portions of north central OK. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Mid level clouds across western Oklahoma should continue to erode, otherwise mostly sunny conditions will prevail through the afternoon. A cold front has pushed across a majority of the Oklahoma Panhandle. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by 6-7 pm near the front in far northwest Oklahoma. There is certainly a wide variation in model solutions however. It is possible that little or no storm development will occur, with better coverage northeast in Kansas. If this occurs, storms should still propagate/develop southward during the evening and overnight and ultimately impact parts of northern Oklahoma. For now will stay with the solution of enough storm organization/ cold pool for storms to move southward across parts of northern/western/perhaps central Oklahoma this evening and overnight. Storms that development early this evening will be capable of hail and strong winds and perhaps excessive rainfall. Late evening and overnight the main hazard will be strong wind gusts. There should be considerable cloudiness for at least the first half of Friday with lingering showers and storms. With the expected cloud cover and some precipitation, Friday`s high temperatures should be noticeably cooler. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Friday night should have a widespread area of convection. Locally strong, maybe severe, storms are expected, along with patches of heavy rainfall. There does not appear to be any real focus for the precipitation, so we have relatively little variation in PoPs during this period. Saturday will continue the generally disorganized convective pattern. A small wave aloft is forecast to help enhance rain chances for Saturday and Saturday night. As this wave moves off to the east, less support for convection will lead to lower rain chances Sunday. For most of next week, northwest flow aloft will occasionally bring High Plains convection southeast into parts of Oklahoma. The increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures near or below the seasonal average for most of the next seven days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Showers and thunderstorms are still expected over the northern OK terminals, but the start of this has been delayed by a few hours. Expect them near WWR & PNC by 10Z or so. The chances for this will then shift southward behind north winds during the overnight hours and into Friday morning and afternoon for many of the other terminals. Some MVFR cigs appear possible near the end of the forecast period but will not include for the moment due to a lack of confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 70 87 69 87 / 0 40 40 50 Hobart OK 70 88 68 89 / 20 40 50 40 Wichita Falls TX 72 91 70 91 / 20 40 50 30 Gage OK 65 84 64 85 / 50 40 60 40 Ponca City OK 70 84 68 86 / 40 70 50 60 Durant OK 71 93 71 92 / 0 10 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...03
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
809 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Updated to expire the red flag warning for the San Luis Valley. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 ...Increasing chance for thunderstorms overnight and into Friday... Nice break from the heat across the eastern mountains and plains today in the wake of the cold front early this morning, with mid- afternoon readings in the 70s/80s at most locations. Mountains and interior valleys have seen less cooling, though readings were still a few degf cooler than yesterday. Starting to see some showers develop over the central mountains ahead of approaching upper trough as of 21z, and expect these to expand eastward and strengthen as they move into the Pikes Peak region this evening. Also expect precip to break out over the eastern plains in the late evening and overnight hours as warm air advection lift spreads northward and low level moisture continues to increase as ely surface winds persist. Doesn`t look like we`ll have enough instability for severe storms, though a few stronger cells with at least small hail look possible. Activity tapers off to showers at most locations toward sunrise, with highest pops over the far sern plains and across the central mountains. Ingredients coming together for fairly widespread and strong tsra across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains on Friday, as well defined upper wave crosses the state, and low level flow maintains an easterly component through the day. 0-6km shear looks favorable for severe storms with 45-55 kts over the plains in the afternoon. Main question is amount of instability available, as surface air mass remains rather cloudy/cool in the wake of early morning precip, and may take much of the day to recover and realize max instability. Still appears areas along/west of I-25 will clear enough to see CAPE climb into the 500-1000 j/kg range, leading to storm initiation by mid-afternoon, with steering flow taking storms onto the plains in the late afternoon/evening. SWODY2 with marginal risk looks good for areas from I-25 eastward, as strong shear/steep lapse rates and dynamic lift from approaching wave work to overcome less than ideal instability. Models point to Pikes Peak region/El Paso county for best chance of stronger storms/heavier rain, though quick peak at 18z HRRR shows stronger cells in Pueblo County and down around Trinidad also. In addition to severe threat, we`ll have to watch eastern mountain burn scars for flooding, as rainfall rates could be fairly high under any stronger convection. Expect another cool day area-wide, with max temps in the 60s/70s across much of the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Main concern this period will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the region as NW flow will dominate the mid level flow pattern during this long term forecast period. The combination of the NW flow aloft, a few disturbances moving across the region combined with upslope flow will allow for the potential for a 2-3 days of strong storms. This period should start off with a bang as I anticipate a cluster of showers and storms to be ongoing at the beginning of this period (6 PM tomorrow). Fairly impressive short wave and upslope flow should allow for storms to develop tomorrow. The uncertainty at this time is how strong will the convection be? Shear is not going to be an issue tomorrow evening over the plains, but will there be enough CAPE in place for sustained convection?? The more stout an updraft we can get the better the potential for strong to severe storms. Lastest SWODY2 has moved the marginal risk back to the mtns and this looks realistic. In a nutshell, the more CAPE we can generate tomorrow the better chance for stronger storms tomorrow. SPC HREF shows some helicity tracks going across the region tomorrow so the potential is there, with the best potential at this time for the Raton Mesa as this area will likely see the best overall CAPE. Saturday, we should see much less storms and warmer temperatures as 80s should return to the plains and larger valleys. SPC has far EC CO in marginal and this will be possible, but expect storms will be more isolate than tomorrow evenings storms given less forcing. Sunday, should be dry and hot. Cant rule out an isolated high based storms but forcing will be minimal across the area, with the diurnal wind flow the main forcing for this date. For Monday, a weak front will likely come down the plains early in the day and sfc flow will become upslope by late afternoon. Expect we will see an uptick in storm coverage this day, mainly along the the mtns/plains interface. Cant rule out a strong storm or two. Rest of the period...NW flow will continue aloft. Temps at mid levels warm up so this should keep CAPE at relatively low levels, but it really is not expected to dry out too much, so expect we will see a chance of afternoon and evening storms over the region, with the best chance over the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor region. /Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020 At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a period of gusty southwest winds this afternoon and early evening. Low chance of a tsra with gusty winds after 20z on Fri. At KCOS, VFR today and this evening with gradually lowering VFR cigs late afternoon into Friday morning. Convection will develop late this afternoon over the mountains north and west of KCOS, and continue overnight. Will include a vcsh mention from late evening into Friday morning, with a period of MVFR cigs possible toward 10z- 12z. On Friday, tsra likely from about 20z onward as upper level weather system moves across the area, and a few strong/severe storms with hail and strong winds are possible. At KPUB, VFR today and this evening with gradually lowering VFR cigs after sunset. Convection develops mainly east of the terminal overnight, though activity will be close enough to warrant a vcsh mention from 05z onward. Area could see a period of MVFR cigs toward 10z-12z as easterly upslope flow persists. On Friday, tsra likely from about 21z onward as upper level weather system moves across the area, and a few strong/severe storms are possible. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will maintain itself over the area into the weekend before weakening and heading off to the northeast Sunday. This will keep our region in a wet pattern. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Thursday... Made some minor adjustments in temperatures and dew points utilizing the latest surface obs,their trends and blended in the NBM for tonight. Made some modifications to weather and pops using radar trends and mixed in HRRR and NAM for this evening into Friday morning. More changes later... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... The ever familiar cutoff low continues its northward track and looks to be over southern OH by Friday evening. Scattered showers are sprouting up around the area as expected, with the best coverage in the southern Blue Ridge and in southeastern WV. A few flashes of lightning are beginning to show up in WV, which makes sense as CAPE > 1000 J/kg is out that way. Expect convection to become the dominant precip type as the day progresses, but no one area has experienced training. Training would be the most likely scenario for any new flooding impacts today. As we lose the daytime instability after dusk, storm coverage will decrease, and then increase again Friday afternoon with the upper low still helping force showers and storms. Both today and Friday will be quite similar, a slight warming trend and greater storm coverage in the afternoon/evening. Highs look on track for the low to mid 70s today, and just a few degrees warmer for Friday. Overnight lows tonight should again be moderated by the widespread cloud coverage and stay in the 60s for most, perhaps the high 50s in the mountains. High confidence for temperatures this period, moderate confidence for precipitation location. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... The persistent upper closed low that has lingered over the region will finally start to open up and exit the region over the weekend. However, this will be a slow process, leaving the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region with a good chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall remains a possibility with increased instability compensating for less robust precipitable water values, and some shear may allow for some organized storm clusters to enhance rainfall. While the overall threat for severe storms is low given the environment, trees may still topple over with winds well below severe criteria since the ground is so wet and the canopy is in full leaf. By Sunday expect coverage of precipitation will be trending down as we finally start getting into some ridging aloft. Temperatures will be slowly warming through the weekend with readings just about back to seasonal normals by Sunday with generally middle 80s east of the Blue Ridge and mid 70s/around 80 to the west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... Ensemble guidance indicates the eastern part of the country will see a broad trof develop as a closed low settles over the Great Lakes region through the middle of next week. This will combine with high pressure off the coast to put the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region in deep southwesterly flow, resulting in warmer and more humid conditions more appropriate for early summer. However, a series of weak short waves will combine with diurnal instability to bring a good chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 738 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR in convections, low clouds and fog continue this evening into Friday morning. Flying conditions (especially visibility) will vary greatly depending on the location of and intensity of storms. All sites return to MVFR or lower tonight, with some potential to dip to IFR with any fog overnight. Any taf location can have a thunderstorms this evening, but DAN and LYH will have best chances. Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms will again develop Friday afternoon. Outside of convection expect generally light winds mostly southerly shifting to westerly through Friday. Moderate confidence for ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... The closed upper low will continue to meander about the central and southern Appalachians through Friday night, finally beginning to lift slowly to the north by the weekend. As the low weakens, the threat for prevailing IFR conditions and persistent -RA will begin to decrease. Showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected Saturday into Monday, mainly each afternoon and evening. Scattered MVFR showers and Thunderstorms are expected Tuesday especially in the west. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...KK/VFJ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...KK/VFJ
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Surface map at 18z shows low pressure centered across southwest Kansas with a stationary front extending northeast toward Grand Island Neb. MLCAPE near the boundary is now around 2000 with little CIN remaining. Effective shear is forecast to gradually rise toward 20-25kts by evening. The atmosphere appears to support a risk for wind or marginal hail with max instability this evening. Water vapor also shows a subtle wave across the TX panhandle while the mid to upper level ridge axis remains over eastern KS. Tonight...most likely scenario appears to be one where diurnally driven storms impact northern KS this evening with a some risk for severe wind/marginal hail then additional storms should develop later tonight along the 925-850mb front. High PWATS and weak steering flow aloft combined with 30-35kt LLJ will aid in the heavy rain threat. Location of greatest coverage of storms after midnight is uncertain but trends are suggesting along a Council Grove to Lawrence southward later tonight where training could set up after 9z. Recent model signals appear to suggest that the weak wave now across TX panhandle will drift NE and could contribute to forcing during the day on Friday so there could be a prolonged period of rainfall/convection mainly along/south of I-70 at least into midday across the area. Heavy rains would be a threat if this scenario occurs. At this point the HRRR and ARW WRF along with the NAM80 all show some version of this scenario. Have raised precip chcs into midday based on this potential. As mentioned given the high PWATS and weak steering combined with some risk for training it appears that local areas could see in excess of 2 inches. Given the dry conditions and rainfall deficits over the past month will not issue a flood watch but as mentioned given the set up it appears there`s the potential for amounts in excess of 2 inches in spots late tonight through Friday morning. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 The mesoscale situation on Friday night is low confidence and dependent on how the convection evolves on Friday. The wave now across NV is forecast to emerge into the Plains Friday night so would expect some response with convection across eastern CO into western KS Friday night but there`s uncertainty how far east any organized complex would get or if it would move more ESE into the re-developing 850 jet so for now will keep the high chc/low likely pops but confidence in coverage Fri night is low at this point. The wave will move across the state on Saturday with a sfc low forecast to drift east across the area into the afternoon. Timing of this wave will be critical to determining how widespread additional storms may be by afternoon with the NAM and GFS both showing veering winds at 850mb by 00Z so for now it still appears that there could be some risk for severe weather mainly across the northeast half of the area on Saturday afternoon as the mid level speed max moves across the area. Believe or not there may be a quiet night on Sat night/early Sunday morning as the wave departs and weak ridging moves in. However any break will be short as another wave will approach on Sunday afternoon and wind fields will respond with WAA in the low levels re-developing while mid level WNW flow increases. This may set the stage for a more widespread convective complex/severe event on Sunday evening or Sun night with a forward propagating complex moving SE across some part of central KS. The flow aloft will become more northwesterly with another wave fcst to drop into the region later Monday so there could be another bout of storms and severe wx sometime late Monday into Monday night but timing/location remain to be determined. At some point drier more stable air may move into the area and provide at least a short break from the storms by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 Convection has started in north central KS and may impact KMHK within the next few hours. Model trends continue to develop more widespread TSRA mainly after 09z at KTOP/KFOE with low confidence remaining in overall convective coverage and evolution through the day Friday. Have kept general VCTS at this point until confidence increases. Next issuance may be able to better pinpoint rain chances through the day Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Omitt LONG TERM...Omitt AVIATION...Flanagan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Currently monitoring convection that has fired along the frontal boundary draped southwest to northeast across KS. Expect this activity to fester through the night as it slowly develops southeast, although 00Z NAM and recent HRRR output suggests convection may not reach the northern parts of our forecast area until closer to 12Z. Have trimmed back PoPs for overnight, keeping highests PoPs near the KS border for late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 89 70 87 / 20 30 40 60 FSM 69 93 70 91 / 10 10 20 40 MLC 70 90 70 87 / 10 20 30 40 BVO 69 85 68 85 / 30 50 50 60 FYV 67 87 68 86 / 10 20 20 50 BYV 66 88 68 86 / 10 20 20 50 MKO 69 90 70 86 / 10 20 30 50 MIO 70 88 69 86 / 20 40 40 60 F10 69 88 70 86 / 10 20 30 50 HHW 70 91 71 90 / 10 0 20 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18