Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/19/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR vis reductions will be the main concern through the western half
of the state stretching into the RGV tonight into Friday morning.
A stalled backdoor frontal boundary through northeastern NM will
surge south and west overnight, bringing an east canyon winds to KABQ
by the 09Z-12Z timeframe peaking by 12Z. This could temporarily
increase vis at KABQ by mixing up the smoke a bit. Of course there is
high uncertainty with how those ingredients will indeed mix
together. Low cigs are likely at KLVS and possibly as far as KSAF
behind the backdoor front early Friday morning. Light -ra and -shra
may reach parts of northeastern NM from KRTN to KCAO to KTCC. The
front reaches KROW bringing a northerly wind shift near 11Z. Smoke
looks to mix out around 18Z with breezy southwest winds expected to
return during the afternoon hours through much of NM expect the far
northeastern plains.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke will continue to blow in from wild fires in Arizona into New
Mexico tonight and through Friday afternoon and night. A backdoor
cold front makes its way into the northeast and northern mountains
later today into tonight and across the eastern central areas Friday.
Storms are expected in the afternoon on Friday favoring the far
eastern plains. Some storms could be strong to severe. Showers and
thunderstorm potential will continue for eastern New Mexico into
Saturday. High pressure builds over Arizona Sunday, bringing a drier
and warmer regime to the Land of Enchantment through Monday. Another
backdoor front pushes into northeastern New Mexico Monday night,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to eastern New Mexico
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The rest of the area will remain
dry with above normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
Smoke from wildfires to our southwest and west which covered a large
portion of central NM this morning has tended to become more diffuse
as it`s continued to be transported eastward. Meanwhile, this
afternoon`s smoke plumes were starting to spread into portions of
western NM. HRRR smoke model continues to indicate another large
batch of smoke will impact much of western and central NM later
tonight and early Friday. While Albuquerque has a Health Alert in
place for tonight, there is potential for additional air quality
products to be issued as the situation develops. Otherwise, a front
has pushed into northeast NM, and this boundary will set up the
chance for showers and storms there tonight. A relatively light to
briefly moderate east wind may push into the RGV late tonight
through midmorning Friday. Any moisture increase associated with the
east wind would most likely mix out in the afternoon, but can`t rule
out isolated dry convection over the north central if its a bit
stronger than models suggest. The change in low level winds may also
briefly help or aggravate the smoke situation in the Santa Fe and
Albuquerque metro.
On Friday, the front in the eastern plains will also lead to the
potential for a few strong to severe storms. SPC Day 2 outlook has
brought the marginal risk westward to the just east of the Pecos
Valley, with the slight risk brushing our east central border with
TX. Highs Friday will be about 5-10 degrees below normal over the
northeast, and within a few degrees of normal elsewhere.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Chances for precipitation will linger as a trough begins to eject
into the Great Plains, with isolated showers and thunderstorms
favoring the far northeast and eastern plains Saturday. High
pressure begins to build over AZ starting Sunday and is forecasted to
track into NM through the week, bringing drier air and warmer
temperatures in its wake due to rising heights. Lingering moisture in
the NE may result in a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms for
the far northeastern portions of the state Sunday afternoon through
the night. Embedded disturbances within the upper level pattern will
shoot down NW flow Monday night, as a backdoor front works its way
into northern and eastern NM. Temperatures east of the central mtn
chain will cool 4-6 degrees. Meanwhile, moisture behind the backdoor
front is pulled into NM, reintroducing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms across northeastern NM Tuesday and across the central
mtn chain Wednesday. In the presence of NW flow aloft, the potential
exists for a few of these storms to become strong to severe both
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. A dryline looks to setup Thursday
afternoon across eastern NM, along with the advection of moisture
from the south. Currently, the GFS and CMC are in agreement with
placing the boundary across the eastern plains, while the ECMWF
positions it more along the TX border. The GFS shows above average
run-to-run consistency for PWATs, while the NAEFS suggests little
departure from normal. While it`s too early to nail down timing and
placement, this may be a feature to watch moving into next week,
especially given the possibility of persisting NW flow aloft.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions to continue over western and central New Mexico
through Sunday with poor overnight humidity recoveries, single digit
humidities and high Haines. In fact, 5-10 consecutive hours of
single digit humidities are forecast for much of the RGV westward
each day Friday through Sunday with Sunday being the driest overall.
However, winds in general won`t be strong enough to trigger a Red
Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch.
Low level moisture will slosh over the eastern plains thanks to a
front bringing cooler temperatures along with a few wetting showers
and storms tonight through Saturday. Meager low level moisture may
bleed into the RGV early Friday morning on a light to briefly
moderate east wind and should mix out later in the day, but can`t
totally rule out a cloud buildup or dry shower Friday afternoon over
the north central if the low level moisture pushes a bit farther
west and more strongly than models suggest will happen.
A strong upper ridge of high pressure will build over western and
into central New Mexico next week. Warmer than normal and very dry
conditions with poor overnight humidity recoveries will continue to
plague western and central areas. A front may bring showers and
storms to the east next Tuesday, any moisture which bleeds into the
Rio Grande Valley will result in mostly dry activity.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR conds expected through the period. SCT120 SCT/BKN250 east of
the Rio Grande Valley until 03Z. Some areas of smoke spreading to
much of the area after 07Z. Did reduce visby at KTCS due to this;
high-res models also show possibility of KDMN visby being reduced
some but left out of TAF for now. Narrow area of potential LLWS
from around 06Z-12Z over southern Luna, southern Dona Ana, and El
Paso Counties. Winds west 10-15 kts til 03Z, then variable less
than 8 kts. Winds increasing again after 19Z to west 12-17G25 kts.
&&
Hefner
.PREV DISCUSSION...223 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
We will be dry with very warm weather on Friday and into the
weekend with our high temperatures running a few degrees above
average and we will have occasionally breezy winds in the
afternoon. For the first part of next week, we will have hot
temperatures with high temperatures in the lowlands several
degrees above the century mark. For the middle part of next week,
we will continue our very warm to hot temperatures with just a
slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
Very persistent pattern over area will continue through Friday. Very
dry air has settled in areawide with dew points mainly in the teens
and 20s allowing for overnight lows to fall off nicely again, but
could be even cooler if winds die off more than expected. Main
concern tonight will actually be smoke as lower level winds turn
more westerly and bring in some smoke from fires in AZ and the Gila
region. 12Z HRRR smoke showing greater smoke coverage over northern
half of CWA compared to last night and included in the forecast, but
visibilities not expected to be reduced to much lower than 5SM.
For Friday, little change from today with highs over the lowlands
mainly in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies. Models
continue to try and bring a little bit of low level moisture into
southern Hudspeth County and that area could see an isolated
thunderstorm in the afternoon. Winds will remain west-southwest at
10-20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Our very warm and dry weather will continue through the weekend.
By Friday evening our upper level trough to our north will
continue to sweep drier air into the region. So we will continue
with little to no chances for rain as we move through the weekend.
Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will run a few degrees above
average with lowland temperatures at or a degree or two below
average. On Monday, upper level high pressure building along the
West Coast, will begin to nose into our region. As the ridge
builds in we will see our high temperatures take another uptick.
Most lowland locations on Monday will be several degrees above the
century mark.
Starting Monday night the models begin to diverge a little on the
details of the forecast. Initially both the GFS and ECMWF models
keep the upper level ridge centered along the NM/AZ border, but
the GFS allows an east push of moisture into the region, so that
by Tuesday afternoon dewpoint temperatures in the GFS model are a
little over 50 while the EC model still has dewpoint readings in
the 30`s. If the GFS is right that will be enough moisture to give
us some decent clouds and a chance for rain which could knock a
few degrees off of our high temperatures Tuesday afternoon, but if
the EC is correct we will continue our hot (maybe very hot) and
dry weather. For Wednesday, both models stick to their respective
forecasts. For now I have kept most of the area hot and dry for
Tuesday and Wednesday with just a slight chance for rain in
eastern Otero and eastern Hudspeth Counties. By Thursday the GFS
keeps the upper level ridge in place but starts to dry us out,
while the EC model, breaks down the ridge and replaces it with a
dry and zonal (west to east) flow. Either solution looks to keep
us dry for Thursday and Friday, with the GFS a few degrees warmer
than the EC solution. Based simply on the time of year (June is
our hottest month), I`m leaning more toward the hotter GFS
solution.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Little change in weather pattern for the next few days which will
keep temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for the lowlands and
mainly dry conditions. The only exception to the dry conditions
through the weekend could be southern Hudspeth County. Relative
humidities will continue to fall into the single digits to lower
teens and winds generally 10-20 mph out of the west to southwest.
Vent rates will be very good to excellent but The Haines Index will
be in the 5 to 6 range.
Going into early next week, very hot temperatures expected for the
first part of the week, but a back door front could move into
eastern areas Tuesday and Wednesday. This front will bring cooler,
more moist conditions to areas east of the Rio Grande and a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Mainly hot and dry conditions to
areas west of the river.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 69 92 65 93 / 0 20 0 0
Las Cruces 63 95 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 64 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 53 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 62 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 56 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 55 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 65 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 70 98 69 99 / 0 10 0 0
Loma Linda 66 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 71 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 66 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 69 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 54 95 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 61 96 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 61 96 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 67 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 59 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 51 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 47 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 50 87 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 55 94 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 56 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 43 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 53 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 47 93 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 49 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 55 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 57 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 61 94 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 59 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 57 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1039 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Latest radar mosaic is showing showers and thunderstorms entering
northwest Missouri late this evening. Current movement of this
line is to the southeast, and the CAM guidance is showing this
activity weakening as it moves into the upper ridge overnight.
The RAP is still showing some weak low level moisture convergence
over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois late tonight
into tomorrow morning, so have maintained a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Rest of the forecast still looks good
and required little change.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
500mb analysis as well as mid/upper level water vapor imagery from
GOES-E show a mid/upper level ridge extending from the southern
Plains northeast into the Upper Midwest. This ridge has been, in
part, responsible for the tranquil weather the Mid Mississippi
Valley has been experiencing for the past few days. Short range
guidance is in good synoptic agreement that this ridge will drift
east through Friday night, as well as be attenuated by interacting
with the large cut off low over the Ohio and upper Tennessee
Vallies, and a second cut off low approaching from upstream over
south-central Canada. The surface reflection of the low over Canada
is pushing a cold front slowly to the east southeast through the
Plains into the Midwest. What little upper level support there is
to keep the front moving will outrun it to the northwest and the
front is expected to stall close to a line extending from Des
Moines, to St. Joseph, to Tulsa tonight, and the front will be a
focus for convective development through the weekend. Unfortunately,
the movement of the front will be be largely driven by that
convection, so it`s going to be tough to predict. Current thinking
is that the ongoing storms in the vicinity of the front in
Nebraska/Iowa/South Dakota will increase in coverage somewhat this
evening, and develop further to the southeast overnight tonight due
to weak to moderate moisture convergence on a 20-30kt low level jet
ahead of the front. A few of the storms could make it into our
central and northeast Missouri counties and possibly west central
illinois after 12Z Friday. The chance for storms should gradually
increase with daytime heating, but low level forcing will be hard to
find, and the dying upper level ridge will still be over the Mid
Mississippi Valley, so while I think there will be storms, I`m less
confident in how much area they`ll cover. Best chance for storms
should stay over northeast Missouri into west central Illinois where
the upper level ridging will be weakest.
Carney
.LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
As mentioned before, the motion of the effective front will largely
be driven by convection...at least through Saturday afternoon. The
airmass over the Mid Mississippi Valley will be warm and humid
without much CINH to cap convection. However, low level forcing to
initiate storms will once again be lacking on Saturday. Like
Friday, I feel there is an excellent environment to support storms
Saturday afternoon with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/Kg and even 20-
30kt deep layer shear (potential for some large hail and 60 mph
wind) but I don`t have a lot of confidence in the coverage. One
supporting element will be a short wave trough moving out of the
Plains into western Missouri/Iowa around 00Z Saturday. This will
force cyclogenesis on the front and finally give it a kick to the
east Saturday night; but by the time the front makes it into central
Missouri it`ll be 06Z and later, and the instability will be greatly
diminished. Again high confidence there will be storms Saturday
night, but low confidence in coverage/intensity.
The front doesn`t get too far Saturday night according to the ECMWF
and GFS, and it stalls over southern Missouri/Illinois where more
storms will be possible. There isn`t a huge change in airmass north
of the front on Sunday, so it still looks warm enough and humid
enough to support convection just about anywhere in the CWFA...but
the front will likely be the focus for thunderstorm development.
Medium range models are in general agreement that the front will
wave back to the north Sunday night into Monday, and then a trough
will try to push it south through the state Monday night into
Tuesday. GFS and ECMWF differ on the amplitude of the trof and
therefore how much upper support the front will have to move south
(at least initially). Consequently the temperature forecast becomes
fairly low confidence by midweek. Looking at ensemble guidance, the
spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles are separated by as
much as 10 degrees next Thursday at St. Louis! Regardless, the
trend in temperatures is downward from the upper 80s to low 90s
Sunday down into the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Terminals are expected to remain dry and VFR through at least 12Z.
There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the
morning on Friday at KUIN and KCOU, but a better chance during
the afternoon and evening at these two sites when scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop across central Missouri and
west central Illinois. Any thunderstorms will have the potential
produce MVFR/possible IFR visibilities and ceilings. These
thunderstorms are expected to stay northwest of the St. Louis area
terminals through the period. Winds will remain light through the
period.
Britt
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1057 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.UPDATE... /issued 845 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/
The center of the eastern CONUS upper low has moved into the OH
Valley but it will remain quasi-stationary for another 36 hours or
so. Eventually, the trough over the Prairie Provinces will shift
east and kick it out over the weekend. We will see a few thin,
high clouds overnight as the northerly flow on the backside of the
eastern trough taps into the moisture from the convection in the
Plains. Otherwise, we`re looking at conditions similar to the past
several nights with benign weather and slightly below normal
temperatures. Overnight lows will knocked down a couple of degrees
across portions of west TN and north MS where temperatures are
expected to dip into the lower 60s. Otherwise, no notable changes
were necessary.
Looking ahead to Friday, dewpoints are forecast to be slightly
higher in the afternoon with temperatures at or just above today`s
highs. That should push heat indices up to near 90F by peak
heating. There is a potential for a few afternoon showers, or
perhaps a stray thunderstorm, but coverage will remain isolated at
best. The HRRR looks to be a bit more aggressive than the other
CAMs but warm mid-level temps will really limit instability. That
said, slight chances PoPs may be in order with the next forecast
package.
MJ
&&
.DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/
Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the 80s. So far, not much in the way of
thunderstorms have develop across north Mississippi. If any
thunderstorms do develop later this afternoon, they should
dissipate before sunset.
A weak upper level ridge will remain in place over the region for
the next couple of days. This will keep dry weather across the
Mid-South through Saturday evening. Temperatures will remain near
normal for tonight through Friday night but become warmer on
Saturday as high reach the lower 90s.
A cold front will move into southern Missouri by Saturday night
with a few thunderstorms possibly reaching northern sections of
the Mid-South by late Saturday night. The front will stall out
north of the region so scattered thunderstorms will be possible
for both Sunday and Monday over much of the Mid-South. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly above normal for both days.
The front will move back toward the region on Tuesday and reach
northern sections of the Mid-South on Wednesday and next Thursday.
This will lead to a better chance of thunderstorms for all three
days. With more clouds and a better chance of rain expected,
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal during this
period.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Set
VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 to 30 hours. Winds
will generally remain light and variable through the period.
KRM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
916 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers continue to persist across locations south of
I-40/east of I-65 eastward to around I-24 Corridor this evening.
Will update suite of forecast products to reflect this continuance
for another hour or two. Latest HRRR model initializing well with
isolated showers occuring just after 9 PM CDT north of Upper
Cumberland Region in southern KY. HRRR depicting potential of
isolated showers through night across Upper Cumberland Region.
Thus, will update forecast to reflect. Will make minor adjustments
to sky coverage through tonight, generally trending toward mostly
clear skies west, partly cloudy skies central, and a partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy mix eastern portions of mid state. Will
tweak hourly temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids. Current temperature trends in line with forecasted lows.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Update of suite of
forecast products out shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...VFR conditions should prevail thru 19/24Z.
Some iso diurnally driven shwrs across mid state thru 19/02Z, but
areal development and impact confidence not high enough to
mention at terminals/vcnty. CU/AC diurnal driven cloudiness should
dissipate by around 19/02Z. Exception CSV where atmospheric
moisture greatest. Expect sct/bkn patches of CI to stream across
terminals thru 19/24Z with it being prevalent cloud coverage
CKV/BNA/MQY thru 19/24Z also. With diurnal heating, orographic
influences, and proximity to back side of upper trough axis, not
enough confidence to mention at CSV terminal, but certainly can
not rule out in vcnty tstms developing 19/17Z-19/24Z. Surface
winds generally light W/NW thru 19/24Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........JB Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
909 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Shifted higher PoPs to later tonight for northwestern and northern
OK. Currently, the cold front is located just NW of Harper County
into SW KS. Moist convection is beginning to develop along it over
Beaver Co., and should slowly shift southward into NW OK during
the overnight hours. The HRRR and NAM12 seem to have a good handle
on this scenarios so leaned timing towards these 2 solutions. A
deepening cold pool and intensifying LLJ should maintain this
precipitation through the early morning hours Friday as it slides
southward into portions of north central OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Mid level clouds across western Oklahoma should continue to erode,
otherwise mostly sunny conditions will prevail through the afternoon.
A cold front has pushed across a majority of the Oklahoma Panhandle.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
by 6-7 pm near the front in far northwest Oklahoma. There is
certainly a wide variation in model solutions however. It is
possible that little or no storm development will occur, with
better coverage northeast in Kansas. If this occurs, storms should
still propagate/develop southward during the evening and
overnight and ultimately impact parts of northern Oklahoma. For
now will stay with the solution of enough storm organization/
cold pool for storms to move southward across parts of
northern/western/perhaps central Oklahoma this evening and
overnight. Storms that development early this evening will be
capable of hail and strong winds and perhaps excessive rainfall.
Late evening and overnight the main hazard will be strong wind
gusts.
There should be considerable cloudiness for at least the first half
of Friday with lingering showers and storms. With the expected
cloud cover and some precipitation, Friday`s high temperatures
should be noticeably cooler.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Friday night should have a widespread area of convection. Locally
strong, maybe severe, storms are expected, along with patches of
heavy rainfall. There does not appear to be any real focus for the
precipitation, so we have relatively little variation in PoPs
during this period.
Saturday will continue the generally disorganized convective
pattern. A small wave aloft is forecast to help enhance rain
chances for Saturday and Saturday night. As this wave moves off to
the east, less support for convection will lead to lower rain
chances Sunday.
For most of next week, northwest flow aloft will occasionally
bring High Plains convection southeast into parts of Oklahoma.
The increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures
near or below the seasonal average for most of the next seven
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 901 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Showers and thunderstorms are still expected over the northern OK
terminals, but the start of this has been delayed by a few hours.
Expect them near WWR & PNC by 10Z or so. The chances for this will
then shift southward behind north winds during the overnight hours
and into Friday morning and afternoon for many of the other
terminals. Some MVFR cigs appear possible near the end of the
forecast period but will not include for the moment due to a lack
of confidence.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 70 87 69 87 / 0 40 40 50
Hobart OK 70 88 68 89 / 20 40 50 40
Wichita Falls TX 72 91 70 91 / 20 40 50 30
Gage OK 65 84 64 85 / 50 40 60 40
Ponca City OK 70 84 68 86 / 40 70 50 60
Durant OK 71 93 71 92 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...03
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
809 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Updated to expire the red flag warning for the San Luis Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
...Increasing chance for thunderstorms overnight and into Friday...
Nice break from the heat across the eastern mountains and plains
today in the wake of the cold front early this morning, with mid-
afternoon readings in the 70s/80s at most locations. Mountains and
interior valleys have seen less cooling, though readings were still
a few degf cooler than yesterday. Starting to see some showers
develop over the central mountains ahead of approaching upper trough
as of 21z, and expect these to expand eastward and strengthen as they
move into the Pikes Peak region this evening. Also expect precip to
break out over the eastern plains in the late evening and overnight
hours as warm air advection lift spreads northward and low level
moisture continues to increase as ely surface winds persist. Doesn`t
look like we`ll have enough instability for severe storms, though a
few stronger cells with at least small hail look possible. Activity
tapers off to showers at most locations toward sunrise, with highest
pops over the far sern plains and across the central mountains.
Ingredients coming together for fairly widespread and strong tsra
across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains on Friday, as well
defined upper wave crosses the state, and low level flow maintains
an easterly component through the day. 0-6km shear looks favorable
for severe storms with 45-55 kts over the plains in the afternoon.
Main question is amount of instability available, as surface air
mass remains rather cloudy/cool in the wake of early morning precip,
and may take much of the day to recover and realize max instability.
Still appears areas along/west of I-25 will clear enough to see CAPE
climb into the 500-1000 j/kg range, leading to storm initiation by
mid-afternoon, with steering flow taking storms onto the plains in
the late afternoon/evening. SWODY2 with marginal risk looks good for
areas from I-25 eastward, as strong shear/steep lapse rates and
dynamic lift from approaching wave work to overcome less than ideal
instability. Models point to Pikes Peak region/El Paso county for
best chance of stronger storms/heavier rain, though quick peak at
18z HRRR shows stronger cells in Pueblo County and down around
Trinidad also. In addition to severe threat, we`ll have to watch
eastern mountain burn scars for flooding, as rainfall rates could be
fairly high under any stronger convection. Expect another cool day
area-wide, with max temps in the 60s/70s across much of the
region.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Main concern this period will be increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms over the region as NW flow will dominate the mid level
flow pattern during this long term forecast period. The combination
of the NW flow aloft, a few disturbances moving across the region
combined with upslope flow will allow for the potential for a 2-3
days of strong storms.
This period should start off with a bang as I anticipate a cluster
of showers and storms to be ongoing at the beginning of this period
(6 PM tomorrow). Fairly impressive short wave and upslope flow
should allow for storms to develop tomorrow. The uncertainty at this
time is how strong will the convection be? Shear is not going to be
an issue tomorrow evening over the plains, but will there be enough
CAPE in place for sustained convection?? The more stout an updraft
we can get the better the potential for strong to severe storms.
Lastest SWODY2 has moved the marginal risk back to the mtns and this
looks realistic. In a nutshell, the more CAPE we can generate
tomorrow the better chance for stronger storms tomorrow. SPC HREF
shows some helicity tracks going across the region tomorrow so the
potential is there, with the best potential at this time for the
Raton Mesa as this area will likely see the best overall CAPE.
Saturday, we should see much less storms and warmer temperatures as
80s should return to the plains and larger valleys. SPC has far EC
CO in marginal and this will be possible, but expect storms will be
more isolate than tomorrow evenings storms given less forcing.
Sunday, should be dry and hot. Cant rule out an isolated high based
storms but forcing will be minimal across the area, with the diurnal
wind flow the main forcing for this date.
For Monday, a weak front will likely come down the plains early in
the day and sfc flow will become upslope by late afternoon. Expect
we will see an uptick in storm coverage this day, mainly along the
the mtns/plains interface. Cant rule out a strong storm or two.
Rest of the period...NW flow will continue aloft. Temps at mid
levels warm up so this should keep CAPE at relatively low levels,
but it really is not expected to dry out too much, so expect we will
see a chance of afternoon and evening storms over the region, with
the best chance over the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor
region. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2020
At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, with a period of gusty southwest winds
this afternoon and early evening. Low chance of a tsra with gusty
winds after 20z on Fri.
At KCOS, VFR today and this evening with gradually lowering VFR cigs
late afternoon into Friday morning. Convection will develop late
this afternoon over the mountains north and west of KCOS, and
continue overnight. Will include a vcsh mention from late evening
into Friday morning, with a period of MVFR cigs possible toward 10z-
12z. On Friday, tsra likely from about 20z onward as upper level
weather system moves across the area, and a few strong/severe storms
with hail and strong winds are possible.
At KPUB, VFR today and this evening with gradually lowering VFR cigs
after sunset. Convection develops mainly east of the terminal
overnight, though activity will be close enough to warrant a vcsh
mention from 05z onward. Area could see a period of MVFR cigs toward
10z-12z as easterly upslope flow persists. On Friday, tsra likely
from about 21z onward as upper level weather system moves across the
area, and a few strong/severe storms are possible.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will maintain itself over the area into the weekend
before weakening and heading off to the northeast Sunday. This
will keep our region in a wet pattern.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...
Made some minor adjustments in temperatures and dew points
utilizing the latest surface obs,their trends and blended in the
NBM for tonight. Made some modifications to weather and pops
using radar trends and mixed in HRRR and NAM for this evening
into Friday morning. More changes later...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
The ever familiar cutoff low continues its northward track and looks
to be over southern OH by Friday evening. Scattered showers are
sprouting up around the area as expected, with the best coverage in
the southern Blue Ridge and in southeastern WV. A few flashes of
lightning are beginning to show up in WV, which makes sense as
CAPE > 1000 J/kg is out that way. Expect convection to become
the dominant precip type as the day progresses, but no one area
has experienced training. Training would be the most likely
scenario for any new flooding impacts today.
As we lose the daytime instability after dusk, storm coverage will
decrease, and then increase again Friday afternoon with the upper
low still helping force showers and storms. Both today and Friday
will be quite similar, a slight warming trend and greater storm
coverage in the afternoon/evening.
Highs look on track for the low to mid 70s today, and just a few
degrees warmer for Friday. Overnight lows tonight should again be
moderated by the widespread cloud coverage and stay in the 60s for
most, perhaps the high 50s in the mountains.
High confidence for temperatures this period, moderate confidence
for precipitation location.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
The persistent upper closed low that has lingered over the region will
finally start to open up and exit the region over the weekend. However,
this will be a slow process, leaving the Appalachians and central mid
Atlantic region with a good chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall remains a possibility with
increased instability compensating for less robust precipitable water
values, and some shear may allow for some organized storm clusters to
enhance rainfall. While the overall threat for severe storms is low
given the environment, trees may still topple over with winds well
below severe criteria since the ground is so wet and the canopy is in
full leaf. By Sunday expect coverage of precipitation will be trending
down as we finally start getting into some ridging aloft.
Temperatures will be slowly warming through the weekend with readings
just about back to seasonal normals by Sunday with generally middle 80s
east of the Blue Ridge and mid 70s/around 80 to the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...
Ensemble guidance indicates the eastern part of the country will see a
broad trof develop as a closed low settles over the Great Lakes region
through the middle of next week. This will combine with high pressure
off the coast to put the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region
in deep southwesterly flow, resulting in warmer and more humid
conditions more appropriate for early summer. However, a series of weak
short waves will combine with diurnal instability to bring a good
chance for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 738 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR in convections, low clouds
and fog continue this evening into Friday morning. Flying
conditions (especially visibility) will vary greatly depending
on the location of and intensity of storms. All sites return to
MVFR or lower tonight, with some potential to dip to IFR with
any fog overnight. Any taf location can have a thunderstorms
this evening, but DAN and LYH will have best chances.
Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms will again develop
Friday afternoon. Outside of convection expect generally light
winds mostly southerly shifting to westerly through Friday.
Moderate confidence for ceilings, visibilities and winds during
the taf period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
The closed upper low will continue to meander about the central
and southern Appalachians through Friday night, finally
beginning to lift slowly to the north by the weekend. As the low
weakens, the threat for prevailing IFR conditions and
persistent -RA will begin to decrease.
Showers and thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected Saturday into Monday, mainly each afternoon and
evening. Scattered MVFR showers and Thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday especially in the west.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/VFJ
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...KK/VFJ
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Surface map at 18z shows low pressure centered across southwest
Kansas with a stationary front extending northeast toward Grand
Island Neb. MLCAPE near the boundary is now around 2000 with
little CIN remaining. Effective shear is forecast to gradually
rise toward 20-25kts by evening. The atmosphere appears to
support a risk for wind or marginal hail with max instability
this evening. Water vapor also shows a subtle wave across the TX
panhandle while the mid to upper level ridge axis remains over
eastern KS.
Tonight...most likely scenario appears to be one where diurnally
driven storms impact northern KS this evening with a some risk for
severe wind/marginal hail then additional storms should develop
later tonight along the 925-850mb front. High PWATS and weak
steering flow aloft combined with 30-35kt LLJ will aid in the
heavy rain threat. Location of greatest coverage of storms after
midnight is uncertain but trends are suggesting along a Council
Grove to Lawrence southward later tonight where training could set
up after 9z.
Recent model signals appear to suggest that the weak wave now
across TX panhandle will drift NE and could contribute to forcing
during the day on Friday so there could be a prolonged period of
rainfall/convection mainly along/south of I-70 at least into
midday across the area. Heavy rains would be a threat if this
scenario occurs. At this point the HRRR and ARW WRF along with the
NAM80 all show some version of this scenario. Have raised precip
chcs into midday based on this potential. As mentioned given the
high PWATS and weak steering combined with some risk for training
it appears that local areas could see in excess of 2 inches.
Given the dry conditions and rainfall deficits over
the past month will not issue a flood watch but as mentioned given
the set up it appears there`s the potential for amounts in excess
of 2 inches in spots late tonight through Friday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
The mesoscale situation on Friday night is low confidence and
dependent on how the convection evolves on Friday. The wave now
across NV is forecast to emerge into the Plains Friday night so
would expect some response with convection across eastern CO into
western KS Friday night but there`s uncertainty how far east any
organized complex would get or if it would move more ESE into the
re-developing 850 jet so for now will keep the high chc/low likely
pops but confidence in coverage Fri night is low at this point.
The wave will move across the state on Saturday with a sfc low
forecast to drift east across the area into the afternoon. Timing
of this wave will be critical to determining how widespread
additional storms may be by afternoon with the NAM and GFS both
showing veering winds at 850mb by 00Z so for now it still appears
that there could be some risk for severe weather mainly across the
northeast half of the area on Saturday afternoon as the mid level
speed max moves across the area. Believe or not there may be a quiet
night on Sat night/early Sunday morning as the wave departs and
weak ridging moves in. However any break will be short as another
wave will approach on Sunday afternoon and wind fields will
respond with WAA in the low levels re-developing while mid level
WNW flow increases. This may set the stage for a more widespread
convective complex/severe event on Sunday evening or Sun night
with a forward propagating complex moving SE across some part of
central KS.
The flow aloft will become more northwesterly with another wave
fcst to drop into the region later Monday so there could be
another bout of storms and severe wx sometime late Monday into
Monday night but timing/location remain to be determined. At some
point drier more stable air may move into the area and provide at
least a short break from the storms by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Convection has started in north central KS and may impact KMHK
within the next few hours. Model trends continue to develop more
widespread TSRA mainly after 09z at KTOP/KFOE with low confidence
remaining in overall convective coverage and evolution through the
day Friday. Have kept general VCTS at this point until confidence
increases. Next issuance may be able to better pinpoint rain
chances through the day Friday.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Flanagan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Currently monitoring convection that has fired along the
frontal boundary draped southwest to northeast across KS.
Expect this activity to fester through the night as it
slowly develops southeast, although 00Z NAM and recent
HRRR output suggests convection may not reach the northern
parts of our forecast area until closer to 12Z. Have trimmed
back PoPs for overnight, keeping highests PoPs near the KS
border for late tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 89 70 87 / 20 30 40 60
FSM 69 93 70 91 / 10 10 20 40
MLC 70 90 70 87 / 10 20 30 40
BVO 69 85 68 85 / 30 50 50 60
FYV 67 87 68 86 / 10 20 20 50
BYV 66 88 68 86 / 10 20 20 50
MKO 69 90 70 86 / 10 20 30 50
MIO 70 88 69 86 / 20 40 40 60
F10 69 88 70 86 / 10 20 30 50
HHW 70 91 71 90 / 10 0 20 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18