Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/16/20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
104 PM AKDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level easterly flow will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the next couple of day, although the Interior ridge has now weakened and moved back northeast into the Yukon. This will mean slightly cooler conditions, less instability for strong thunderstorms, and more clouds moving into the Interior, especially by Tuesday as the remnants of a continental easterly wave moves into the region. Expect cloudier and slightly cooler temperatures over the southern Interior tomorrow, however there will still be enough day time heating to produce isolated thunderstorms over much of the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... The Interior ridge aloft is continues to weaken and lift to the north with the center just north of the Brooks Range. A series of easterly waves the past few days are responsible for this weakening. A shortwave pushing west over the Central Interior this evening will be the focus to thunderstorms especially along a Ambler to Bettles to Fairbanks to Northway line. Another and much stronger shortwave will push into Eastern Interior Tuesday morning and into Central Interior Tuesday afternoon. Mid- level temperatures at around 5000 feet remain in the 7-10 C range, thus overall surface temps still remain slightly above average for most of the Interior. Model Discussion... The 15/12z models suite continues to struggle with fast paced easterly wave pattern on both the timing and strength of features. The GFS continues to indicate a cooler and wetter day tomorrow as compared to a drier, warmer ECMWF model that shears apart the easterly wave with thunderstorms in the afternoon along a Bettles to Fairbanks to Northway line. Both the NAM and HRRR indicate abundant deep layer moisture over the Eastern Interior Tuesday morning will move northwest into the Central Interior during the day. Timing of the shortwave will play a role in precip type, either widespread stratiform or more showery precipitation. Given axis of instability and arrival time of moisture opted for a cooler wetter morning followed by showery and Isolated thunder storms scenario along the Bettles to Fairbanks to Northway line. Expect wetting rains in the Eastern Interior south of the Yukon River Tuesday morning with a transition to showers in the afternoon. Expect more sunshine and heating and along with increased instability west of Fairbanks in the Central Interior and westward over the Western interior to produce mostly showery precipitation with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. West Coast and Western Interior... Isolated thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will continue will into this evening, favoring the Interior and Baird Mountains as well as interior Norton Sound. Otherwise, sea breezes will keep coastal locations cooler and mostly dry. Tuesday and Wednesday will see increasing thunderstorm threats for the Interior as instability axis moves over the region, and a series of weak disturbances aloft help spark storms off during the afternoon and evenings. North Slope and Brooks Range... Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible all along the Brooks Range into the middle of the week. High pressure over the Arctic will keep an onshore northeast wind in place, which will gradually strengthen so daily high temps will gradually cool back to more normal values. Tuesday night and Wednesday, some showers may push off the Brooks Range and clip the Eastern North Slope, but there remains much discrepancy with the track of a wave disturbance moving north from the Yukon, so for now this forecast package will stay on the drier side. Central and Eastern Interior... Thunderstorms continue to fire up along the instability axis from near Bettles to Fairbanks, to Northway. These isolated thunderstorms will continue well into this evening. There is enough instability that some of these storms may produce frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy downpours. These storms should push all the way up into the western Yukon Flats and southern Brooks Range. Tricky forecast for Tuesday as yet another easterly wave moves into the area. There remains rather significant discrepancies between the models with how far west and how fast the easterly wave moves into the Central Interior. A quicker solution would likely keep the Central Interior in clouds and light rain and keep temperatures in the 60s while a slower solution would likely produce mostly sunny conditions with afternoon thunderstorms and temps into the mid 70s. Opted to keep a middle ground approach with a cloudy and cool start to the day but a transition to afternoon isolated thunderstorms and temps likely closer to the low 70s for the areas along the Bettles to Fairbanks to Northway line of instability. Expect cooler and wetter conditions over much of the Eastern Interior for most of the morning and a transition to showers in the afternoon. Expect increasing clouds in the morning and early afternoon with isolated thunderstorms developing in the afternoon to the west of Fairbanks in the Central interior. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions expected over the interior and West Coast terminals this afternoon and tonight however Isolated thunderstorms are possible at all interior terminals with VCTS retained in all interior TAFS through this evening. Expect brief gusty winds from thunderstorm outflow boundaries and periods of MVFR conditions with periods of rain showers as the thunderstorms diminish late this evening. Patchy fog will return to the Arctic Coast at some point overnight. Expect LIFR conditions to develop tonight at the North Slope terminals as stratus and fog develop over open icepack leads and push inland with onshore flow. && .MARINE... Winds in the 10 to 20 knot range and seas less than 4 ft are expected in ice free waters through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated thunderstorms will continue to be a threat this evening over much of the Interior with the greatest axis of instability along a line from near Ambler to Bettles to Fairbanks to near Northway. Given moderate instability and some forcing aloft, some storms will likely be strong with potential for isolated storms to produce frequent lightning. Temperatures in the 70s are expected over much of the interior with upper 70 to near 80 degrees in the yukon flats again tomorrow. Minimum relative humidity levels will generally drop into the 30s and 40s percent over most of the interior. Lowest values in the 20s percent will again be found in the Yukon Flats this evening and tomorrow afternoon and evening. The instability axis shifts west into the Western Interior Tuesday as an easterly wave brings in extensive cloud cover and wetting rains to the Eastern and Central Interior south of the Yukon River. There will still be isolated thunderstorm threats, but the best chances will be farther west. Min Rh values will gradually rise as the Interior ridge breaks down and temps slowly fall and clouds/moisture increase. && .HYDROLOGY... No major concerns. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ CCC JUN 20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1012 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure meandering off the Southeast coast early this week should gradually advance north along the East Coast around mid week. Also, an upper level low pressure will settle over the Southeast this week and should gradually weaken through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 1010 PM: KCLX indicated that the forecast area was free of convection. The latest run of the HRRR times a round of showers over the inland SC counties by 5Z. I will update the forecast to reduce PoPs through midnight, then indicate isolated to scattered showers over the northern half of the forecast area late tonight. Based on temperatures observed in the lower to mid 60s, I will lower the low temperature forecast into the low 60s. As of 620 PM: Recent observations indicated that temperatures across the CHS Tri-County have cooled into the mid-60s, primarily north of I-26. Temperature are on pace to fall into the low 60s by midnight. I will update the forecast to cool evening hourly temperatures. KCLX has detected rounds of mist or sprinkles across the Tri-county over the past hour or two. I will keep 20-30 PoPs for showers. Elsewhere, minor changes were made to cool temperatures this evening. Previous Discussion: This Evening and Tonight: Sfc low pressure centered off the Southeast Coast will continue to shift south offshore while a mid/upper lvl low becomes cutoff and centered across South Carolina overnight. Dry mid-lvl air wrapping around the southern edge of the cutoff low along with a north sfc wind behind the sfc low south of the area will likely continue to limit overall shower activity, but few to scattered showers remain in the forecast as low-lvl moisture resides across the area. The bulk of precip activity should occur near the Southeast South Carolina coast this evening and overnight, but showers should eventually occur inland due to some enhanced lifting from the cutoff low aloft. Low-lvl moisture at the very least should produce an abundance of low clouds that shift south across the region through the overnight period. Overnight lows will be cooler, but clouds will help limit the overall cooling late. In general, low temps will range in the low/mid 60s, coolest inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday through Thursday: This period will feature a continuation of below-normal temperatures and a daily, variable chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms. As of Monday afternoon, NHC assigned to low pressure off the Southeast coast a 10 percent probability for tropical development through 5 days. In general, latest guidance generally agrees that as an upper low settles over the Southeast, this surface low should eventually turn toward the north/northeast and remain off our coastline. Thus, the latest forecast assumes no significant development near/associated impacts along our coastline. Thus, an unseasonably deep, cut-off upper low is expected to settle over the Southeast and should remain the primary factor driving our weather through Thursday. Of particular interest, models generally agree that forcing for ascent/associated enhanced moisture will reside on the northern semi-circle of the core of this upper low, and significantly drier air will wrap around the southern periphery of this gyre. The exact position/orientation of the upper low will govern the location/magnitude of the moisture gradient, and this in turn will determine precipitation coverage. With minor day to day variation, in general maximum PoPs range from chance north/interior counties to slight chance far south during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated/scattered showers could persist across northern/ northern/interior counties Tuesday night and across northern/coastal counties Wednesday night. While convection will be mainly driven by low-level diurnal warming beneath a persistent cold pool aloft, by Thursday the sea breeze could also begin to play a role in convection development/evolution. Instability remains quite unimpressive, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. However, unseasonably cold mid level temperatures, perhaps as cold as -14C to -15C Tuesday, justifies at least a slight chance for thunderstorms. Limited instability should translate to a low chance for any severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday, but the mid level cold pool could support an isolated thunderstorm with hail, particularly Tuesday PM. As the upper low gradually lifts NE, fills and weakens, warmer temps/somewhat improved instability should support a better chance for diurnal thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, expect unseasonably cool temperatures with highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s Tuesday, lower 80s Wednesday and middle 80s Thursday. temperatures should bottom out in the lower to middle 60s Tuesday night and middle to upper 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A mid-level low will be to our northeast Thursday night. It`s forecasted to weaken and move over the Northeastern U.S. Friday, becoming absorbed into weak troughing along the East Coast Saturday and Sunday. The shower/thunderstorm coverage should decrease each day. Temperatures will trend higher into the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KCHS MVFR ceilings are expected to lower to IFR around midnight. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that cloud bases will lower through the night, but remaining within IFR range. With daytime heating, ceilings will lift through Tuesday, rising back to MVFR early Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain from the north around 10-12 kts, KSAV, prior to the 0Z TAF, IR satellite and observations indicated that MVFR were approaching the KSAV from the north, expected to arrive by 1Z. MVFR ceilings are expected to continue at KSAV until late Tuesday morning, improving to VFR. Gusty north winds are expected to redevelop late Tuesday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions should remain limited to brief impacts from showers/thunderstorms, especially each afternoon/evening, into this weekend. && .MARINE... As of 620 PM: Recent observations indicated that gusts across the near shore waters were gusting between 25-28 kts. Based on oncoming CAA and wind on high resolution guidance, I will expand Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones outside the CHS Harbor until 2 AM. Previous Discussion: This Evening and Tonight: A fairly pinched pressure gradient continues along the coastal waters as a sfc low shifts south of the area and remains centered offshore. North/northeast winds between 15- 20 kt will be common along with a few wind gusts up to 25 kts at times, especially across offshore Georgia waters. Northerly winds have also built seas up to 4-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 11 PM tonight. Latest guidance suggests weak cold air advection arriving aloft tonight, which could result in a surge of northerly winds, especially across northern South Carolina waters. Confidence remains too low that Small Craft Advisory level conditions will prevail for longer than an 1-2 hour period, but one could eventually be needed. Otherwise, north-northeast winds between 15-20 kt will prevail through the overnight period while seas generally range between 3-5 ft. Tuesday through Friday: Tuesday, expect elevated north winds as high as 15-20 knots and seas 3-5 feet. Thereafter, the pressure gradient should weaken, and W/NW winds backing to SW should average 15 kt or less Tuesday night and Wednesday. Thursday through Friday, expect a more typical regime featuring a daily sea breeze and modest nocturnal surging of S/SW winds at night. Seas should subside to 2-3 feet Tuesday night and should remain in this range through late week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354- 374. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...SPR LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED/SPR MARINE...DPB/SPR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
537 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 ...UPDATED AVIATION... .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE... Scattered RA/TS continue to develop and slowly drift N/NE across parts of the area, mainly favoring the higher terrain. VCTS/TSRA around TCS and DMN will persist thru roughly 03Z, so kept a TEMPO group for VRB strong gusts, reduced vis of 3SM, and -TSRA for that time period. Confidence is lower for storms near LRU, warranting a VCTS for a few hours. Kept any mention of storms out of ELP for now. Erratic outflow wind gusts will be possible at all terminals this evening. All activity looks to end by 04-06Z, leaving FEW120 SCT-BKN250 skies and southeasterly prevailing winds overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again this afternoon/evening, focusing the best chances for rain over area mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande River. We`ll see a similar set up on Tuesday, but rain chances may be able to extend into Las Cruces/El Paso. On Wednesday, westerly winds begin to dry the region out, however rain chances may linger over eastern El Paso and all of Hudspeth County. Thursday begins a warming trend, with temperatures gradually increasing each day. By Saturday, we may see lowland high temperatures reaching back into the century mark. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday... Showers and a few thunderstorms linger early tonight with areas of breezy outflow winds. Most, if not all, activity diminishes after 06Z, with low temperatures dropping into the 60s most locations (near 70 in El Paso). Indications are moisture reluctantly slides east on Tuesday as winds out across western regions shift west/southwest. Axis of moisture may reside over the central portions of the area by the afternoon hours, although global models are not all that enthused with this prospect and shift plume farther east. At this time, extended HRRR is seemingly the most bullish model giving the central regions (including ELP and LRU) isolated to scattered showers and storms, so have 10 POPs across this region. Additionally, the NAM suggests a similar thermodynamic environment to the HRRR, so feel like this threat is at least somewhat realistic. All you would need is an outflow at that point for a chaotic situation. So, once again, temperatures in the mid 90s on Tuesday with isolated showers and storms favoring the higher terrain and vicinity, along propagating outflow, and perhaps portions of lowland locations. && .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Monday... Global models and extended CAMs drop off any lingering convection by midnight Tuesday, with skies beginning to clear from west to east by Wednesday morning as dry, westerly winds take over. This will shove moisture to our eastern zones. How far west the moisture makes it on Wednesday is still in question. The ECMWF pushes the moisture and dryline convergence east of the Borderland, keeping the region dry on Wednesday. The GFS (and ensembles) and the NAM keeps PW values of 1.00"+ and respective dryline in Eastern El Paso and Hudspeth counties Wednesday evening. For now, have kept the given low-end NBM pops in this region due to the uncertainty. Starting Thursday, upper level ridging and dry, westerly winds will completely push the moisture tap east of us. Temperatures will rise gradually each day through the weekend under the ridge. By Saturday, the lowlands may be back to reaching 100F(+) high temperatures. && .FIRE WEATHER... Another day of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon hours is expected on Tuesday focusing on the higher terrain with perhaps some lowland storms as well. Dry lightning and gusty outflow winds the main concerns with the strongest storms. Mainly dry conditions develop Wednesday through the weekend as westerly winds shove moisture to the east. Ventilation will remain mainly excellent through the period as breezy west/southwest winds and relatively high mixing heights coincide. With said deep mixing heights comes an increase in MAX Haines index values, becoming 4/5 Wednesday and 5/6 Thursday. && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 60 90 65 91 / 0 10 10 20 Las Cruces 65 94 67 95 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 65 94 67 97 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 70 52 73 / 20 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 66 93 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 Silver City 61 85 62 87 / 30 20 0 0 Deming 63 95 64 95 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 63 93 64 94 / 20 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 72 97 74 97 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 62 95 65 98 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 66 97 69 98 / 0 10 10 20 Loma Linda 65 89 69 91 / 10 10 20 0 Fabens 69 96 72 98 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 66 94 69 95 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 69 93 73 95 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 64 93 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 64 94 66 96 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 67 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 0 Orogrande 66 93 68 95 / 20 10 10 0 Mayhill 51 81 55 85 / 20 20 10 20 Mescalero 50 81 55 84 / 20 20 10 10 Timberon 49 79 52 82 / 20 10 10 10 Winston 51 85 53 87 / 30 20 0 0 Hillsboro 59 92 62 94 / 20 20 0 0 Spaceport 61 92 63 95 / 20 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 86 56 87 / 30 20 0 0 Hurley 59 88 59 90 / 20 20 0 0 Cliff 54 93 54 93 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 61 89 61 90 / 20 10 0 0 Faywood 60 89 62 91 / 20 20 0 0 Animas 62 94 62 95 / 20 10 10 0 Hachita 61 93 62 94 / 20 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 62 93 63 94 / 30 20 10 0 Cloverdale 61 88 62 89 / 30 10 20 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 32-Pegram/35-Delizio/33-Reynolds
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1012 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Have trimmed up pops even more keeping just the far northern portion of NW MN with an isolated chance of thunder. One cell did develop over the NW Roseau county in the past hour. It has weakened and moved north of the border as quickly as it developed. Expecting a warm and quiet overnight. UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Winds are decreasing as expected with less mixing. Watching the cold frontal boundary and no apparent convective development in the near term will lower pops to isolated vs scattered as HRRR remains mostly north of the border in its coverage though the NAMnest does develop activity in the next 1 to 2 hours south of the international border. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The main weather impacts this period will be today`s severe weather and tomorrow`s windy conditions. Currently, a cold front is moving east across the Red River Valley shifting winds from the south to the northwest. This front is expected to stall in northwest MN tonight before surging northward tomorrow as a warm front. There will likely be some thunderstorm activity along the north end of the cold front this afternoon and into the evening hours. Shear in the 0-6 km layer is 30-40 kts in this area and ML CAPE is around 1500-2000 J/kg...but could increase to 2000-3000 J/kg yet this afternoon. Mainly isolated severe storms are expected across far NW MN and perhaps along the Red River on the ND side. The best chance looks to be north of Thief River Falls as that`s where the cluster of activity has been consistent in the recent CAMs. Still expecting hail up to 1" and winds up to 60 mph...although if there`s a parameter that could go higher, it might be hail size if a long-lived supercell develops. A tornado cannot be ruled out due to the supercell risk. Tomorrow, the warm front pushes northward and a strong pressure gradient sets up across the area. Could see strong enough winds for a Wind Advisory across much of the region once again. Winds in the mixed layer look to be as high as 35-45 kts based on bufr soundings. Impacts to high profile vehicles and loose outdoor items are possible. However, it also looks to be a hot one with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. There could be some relatively weak thunderstorm activity late Tuesday night in eastern ND (mainly the Devils Lake Basin) as the low to the west makes progress eastward. MU CAPE looks to be around 1500 J/kg and deep shear < 30 kts. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 The extended period starts with a sharp thermal ridge over the eastern Dakotas. Temperatures will push into the low to mid 90s across the region. Otherwise...expect the period to see an unsettled weather pattern. Wednesday starts the period with convection late into the afternoon and through the evening. Analysis of forecast parameters show potential for severe...and will have to monitor subsequent runs as the event gets closer. Increasing moisture ahead of the boundary will help prime the pump as surface dewpoints push into the upper 60s...with some 70s reaching the southern portion of the forecast area. Hence...mixed layer CAPE is forecast to be in the 2500 to 3000J/Kg range. Shear values are favorable as values are expected to range from 45 to 60 kts. By Thursday...convective activity will slowly diminish as the boundary continues east. Cooler air will filter in behind the system and persist through the end of the period. There will also be a series of impulses crossing the area...providing additional chances && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 VFR conditions expected for the period with winds the primary concern. Wind gusts ending at all TAF sites for the overnight. South winds will quickly develop gusts tomorrow morning with 30 to 40kt gusts possible at all TAF sites tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 Near critical fire weather conditions are expected in MN on Tuesday and Wednesday. After the cold front stalls in MN tonight, a strong southerly wind redevelops on Tuesday across the region. RH will likely be in the 30s and 40s across the area as well. Areas where fuels are dry will see near- critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday. These conditions will repeat on Wednesday as another hot and relatively dry day is expected. Winds will be a little lighter on Wednesday, but still be on the breezy side. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...Knutsvig LONG TERM...Hopkins AVIATION...JK FIRE WEATHER...Knutsvig
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
733 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Hot and slightly more humid conditions are anticipated over the next 24 to 30 hours across North and Central Texas. Daytime highs will remain above seasonal norms with high temperatures in the mid 90s with heat index values closer to the upper 90s. In addition to the potential for a few showers this afternoon/evening, there`s another low risk of showers and isolated storms through the day on Tuesday. The 24 hour dew point temperature change indicates that values are running roughly 4 to 7 degrees greater this afternoon as east to southeast winds have transported additional low level moisture into North and Central Texas. While a few showers were able to develop, it`s apparent that large scale subsidence will keep updrafts suppressed such that the lightning potential is low. As such, I`ve removed the mention of thunder through midnight. The most noteworthy change to the forecast was the insertion of PoPs prior to 18Z Tuesday. There is a strong model consensus that convection may erupt as early as the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday near and east of the U.S. HWY 75/175 corridor. RAP 295K-300K isentropic analysis indicates some ascent across this region and this appears to explain the QPF offered by model guidance. As such, I`ve included some low PoPs on Tuesday morning to account for this potential. The better risk for more numerous showers and a slight uptick in thunderstorm activity will be during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is unlikely and the main hazards will be lightning and gusty outflow winds. Brief heavy rain could result in some isolated flooding of low- lying and flood prone areas as storm motions will be slow. After sunset Tuesday, shower and storm activity will diminish. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 231 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Overall, much of North and Central Texas will remain free of widespread precipitation through Saturday as a ridge of high pressure remains in place across much of the state. There has been a gradual uptick in moisture, especially in east Texas thanks to a weak surface high along the TX/LA border. This, in turn, has led to an increase in overall available moisture. With plenty of daytime heating, a stray, short-lived shower or storm cant be ruled out in the far eastern counties Wednesday. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of the possible convection. Given the coverage is expected to remain minimal, precipitation chances will be around 10%. Thursday and Friday both appear to be dry across the region. There are some indications that a stray shower may develop, but given coverage will likely be less than Wednesday, it will not be added to the worded forecast. Humidity levels will gradually increase throughout much of the state as the southerly flow strengthens slightly. Dew points will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, leading to heat index values approaching the triple digits this weekend. Models are in fairly good agreement that a shift in the weather pattern will commence by this upcoming weekend. A weakening of the ridge appears likely, allowing for a few shortwaves to approach the region from the northwest. Rain chances will begin to increase by Sunday afternoon and remain in the forecast each afternoon through at least Tuesday of next week. Exact timing and location remains highly uncertain, but the overall upper level flow would suggest there will at least be more precipitation on the RADAR than much of this week. Temperatures are expected to remain around seasonal average, generally highs in the 90s and lows in the upper 60s to 70s. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---None major. VFR with low SHRA potential. VFR will prevail through the TAF period with predominantly afternoon CU resulting in a scattered deck to at times a ceiling. East winds this evening will become southerly on Tuesday with speeds near 10 knots. Brief gusts to 20 knots are possible. SHRA and TSRA will develop Tuesday, but the best risk will be east of all TAFs. Still, some in-flight impacts to Bonham/Cedar Creek arrivals and eastbound departures are possible through the day. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 94 75 96 75 / 10 30 20 5 0 Waco 71 93 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 5 0 Paris 71 89 70 91 70 / 30 30 20 10 0 Denton 71 93 72 95 72 / 10 30 20 5 0 McKinney 71 92 72 95 72 / 20 30 20 5 0 Dallas 76 95 75 96 75 / 10 30 20 5 0 Terrell 71 92 71 94 71 / 20 30 20 10 0 Corsicana 72 91 72 94 71 / 20 30 20 5 0 Temple 69 92 68 94 69 / 10 5 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 69 93 68 94 70 / 5 10 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/30
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 413 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicate a blocking pattern across the CONUS with a prominent mid/upper level ridge from the Southern Plains to the western Great Lakes and northern Ontario. At the surface, brisk southerly winds prevailed between a ridge from southern Quebec into the central Great Lakes and a trough over the western Plains. Otherwise, WAA and leftover convective debris has brought mid/high clouds into western Upper Michigan while sunny conditions remained over the east. Tonight, low level winds will remain strong enough to provide decent mixing and prevent temps from dropping off very far. Expect min readings from the upper 50s to around 60 in downslope locations near Lake Superior to the upper 40s to around 50 over the southeast where lighter winds are forecast. THe combination of another 40 knot LLJ and a weak shortwave moving near western Lake Superior, and MUCAPE values to 1k J/kg could support some elevated isold shra/tsra late tonight into northwest Upper Michigan. Tuesday, any convection should diminish early as the LLJ dissipates. Even through strong capping will limit the mixing depth, continued WAA pushing 900 mb temps to near 20C will support max temps into the mid 80s with some higher readings in downslope locations near Lake Superior. Cooler conditions with temps into the 60s to lower 70s are expected near Lake Michigan. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 339 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2020 Mid-Upper level low over the southeast and another upstream over the Pacific Northwest will continue sandwiching upper level ridging over the Great Lakes. This pattern will persist this week as troughing in the west slowly shifts northeast into the Canadian prairies. At the surface, a cold front will move into the region beginning late Thursday and continue into the eastern portions of the forecast area through Friday. Given the slow eastward progression of this mid- upper level feature, troughing will persist through the weekend into early next week with multiple shortwaves swinging through the region being possible. Wednesday and Thursday, this sandwiching between lows will allow dry conditions and ridging to persist over the region. Wednesday, high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will bring the forecast area a mostly sunny day. Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front, expect clouds to gradually fill in the skies in the west. South to southwesterly winds will persist over the region. Given the 850mb temps of 15-18C, expecting above average temps during the day with continued warm temps overnight. Generally speaking, highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland with some isolated low 90s possible in areas prone to downslope warming. By the lakeshore, expecting areas to be a little cooler, but given the winds regime, the warmth will likely extent to the shoreline for the Lake Superior shoreline. Dewpoints will be in the 50s both days with some isolated low 60s possible in the far west Thursday. This will make it feel tolerable outside, although heat indexes are still progged to be near 90 for many interior regions, which means those sensitive to heat should take frequent breaks outside and stay hydrated. In terms of fire weather concerns, the dewpoints will permit RH values to bottom out in the 30s for much of Upper Michigan. The exception to that looks to be Wednesday in the interior west, where some high 20s will be possible. Mixing to around 4k ft both days in the afternoon will tap into gustier winds aloft. This should create gusty surface winds of ~20 mph that will settle down near sunset. Overnight, lows will be on the milder side in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday afternoon into Friday, a cold front will move into the western lake and then shift east into the Upper Peninsula. 12z models have dialed back the instability Thursday afternoon/evening, but its conceivable that some thunderstorms will be possible given the elevated CAPE in the ~500 j/kg and 0-3km bulk shear near 20kts if parcels are able to overcome the caping inversion. But at the moment, the profile doesn`t match anything severe. Given the slow progression of the parent surface feature, expecting this cold front to slowly move through Upper Michigan through the day Friday. While severe weather isn`t anticipated at the moment, some moderate with isolated heavy rainfall will be possible. The GFS currently shows PWAT values of over 1.5 inches, which would be over the 90% moving average. Another note about this frontal passage is that the trend has had this system slowing, so its conceivable my PoPs may be a little bullish. Beyond this, the overall mid-upper level pattern of troughing moving across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, will give the region additional periods of rain and/or storms through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 623 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2020 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Expect LLWS at CMX and SAW tonight as a low level jet of of 30 knots moves in. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 413 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2020 High pres well off to the east with a low pres trough slowly moving toward the Upper Great Lakes is expected through Wed. Although winds should remain mostly at or below 20kt, the pattern is favorable with high stability over the lake for some stronger winds at times that may gust to 20-30kt at high obs platforms, particularly over the e half of Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB