Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/15/20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wakefield VA

940 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger along the NC coast tonight,
while high pressure builds south into the mid-Atlantic region.
Unsettled conditions will prevail for the early to middle part
of next week as an upper level low pressure drops to our west
then south. The upper level low potentially tracks back north
across the region for the latter part of the week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest analysis reveals ~1032mb sfc high pressure over Atlantic
Canada currently building down the eastern seaboard into the
region. to the southeast, a coastal trough/weak frontal boundary
continues to linger along the Carolina coast this evening, and
has been the focus for more widespread showers and embedded
t-storms to our S/SE. Aloft, upper level low pressure continues
to wobble S-SE across the Carolinas.

Low-Level flow out of the E-NE has allowed for building low-
level moisture, especially along the immediate coast. Showers
which developed along the coastal trough and have nudged north
to our far southern zones have largely abated. However, KAKQ CC
and Z data continue to show some light returns, with some
occasional -RA/DZ reported over the US 58 corridor and S-SE. For
that reason, have maintained a slight to low end chance in NC
overnight. 18z NAM and the past few runs of the RAP showing some
increasing overrunning moisture (300-310 k SFCs) lifting north
across the area overnight. While most of this will just go into
increasing mid-cloud deck, it`s certainly feasible that some
occasional sprinkles/very light rain will be possible tonight
even up into RIC metro and colonial triangle areas. So have
accordingly added sprinkles to the digital DB overnight, mainly
for I-64 south. Cool overnight with increasing clouds by
morning. Overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s.

Previous discussion follows...

As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Upper level low pres continues to develop to our W tonight
while a frontal boundary lingers along the NC coast. Much of the
local area will remain sandwiched between these two features as
sfc hi pres extends S into the mid-Atlantic region from New England.
NE winds (still gusty at least this evening...esp at the coast)
and partly-mostly cloudy conditions are expected to prevail.
ISOLD-SCT -RA will continue INVOF NE NC...maybe sneaking a bit
farther N into far srn/SE VA. Also...will keep PoPs aob 20% over
parts of the Piedmont (well W of the I 95 corridor) until about
00Z/15. Lows tonight in the m50s-around 60F central/W to the
l-m60s E.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Sunday...

Unsettled period of wx expected Mon through mid week as upper
level low pres tracks very slowly into/through the SE CONUS
states. At the same time...gusty onshore winds will be feeding
cool/moist air from the ocean. Initially...Mon-Tue...blended
guidance showing that pcpn will be slow to push N across all of
the local area. As the upper low moves a little closer by late
Tue into Wed...there will be an increased threat for more
widespread RA...potentially locally heavy (esp far S and SE
portions of VA into NE NC) (and HWO will continue to highlight
the potential). WPC has outlooked that area by day 3 MRGL for
excessive rainfall. Tstm chcs are expected to remain low through
Tue then increase by Wed. Total QPF through Wed may reach a few
inches over srn/SE VA-NE NC.

Temperatures will avg well below normal through the period.
Highs Mon/Tue will be mainly in the l-m70s. Lows Mon night in
the u60s-l60s...except m60s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs
Wed will range through the 70s (maybe 80F far SE VA-NE NC).

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

The initial part of the extended forecast period will continue
to be dominated by a slowly weakening upper level low pres system
INVOF the SE states. That upper low is expected to dissipate
leaving a trough behind into next weekend. Onshore sfc winds
combined w/ VRB clouds/mostly cloudy and SCT-likely (50-70%)
PoPs will keep temperatures blo normal Thu. From Fri-Sat winds
are expected to become more SSW...clouds more SCT and pcpn more
ISOLD than SCT (PoPs 15-30%) leading to temperatures returning
closer to normal. By Sun...a flat ridge aloft across the SE
states is expected to lead to hot/mainly dry wx.

Lows Wed night in the l-m60s...except u60s along coastal SE
VA/NE NC. Highs Thu from the m70s W to the u70s-l80s at the
coast. Lows Thu night in the l-m60s...except around 70F at the
coast. Highs Fri in the l-m80s. Lows Fri night in the
m-u60s...except around 70F at the coast. Highs Sat in the 80s
at the coast...around 90F inland. Highs Sun mainly in the
u80s-l90s.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions across area terminals tonight will continue
through the first half of the 00z/15 TAF period. However,
currently noting gradually lowering CIGs are expected late
tonight, in spotty light rain showers/sprinkles, impacting
primarily the ECG/ORF terminals, though a few sprinkles could
also reach KPHF terminal this evening and into the overnight.

CIGs deteriorate further overnight, as an upper low to the west
builds over the Carolinas. A brief period of MVFR CIGs will be
possible at ECG along with the aforementioned showers. NE winds
10-15 kt into tonight (gusts to 20 kt esp at the coast).

Clouds increase Mon morning w/ lower CIGs (MVFR) likely for all
terminals except at SBY. There is a small chance we could see
MVFR CIGS over SE terminals as early as 14-16z, but for now
will hold off until aftn, as better moisture begins to push in
to the local area.

Outlook: Upper level low pres remains just W-SW of the FA into
mid week...resulting in unsettled conditions (increased CHCs for
SHRAs/perhaps a few aftn/early evening tstms by Wed). High prob
of MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds and occasional light rain
from Mon evening through the middle of the week...esp across
srn/SE VA/NE NC.

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Sunday...

Afternoon surface analysis shows 1030+mb high pressure over eastern
Canada with weak/diffuse low pressure to the south of FL, leading to
east and northeast winds across the waters this afternoon. Winds are
generally 10-15 knots over most of the area but obs show 15-20 knots
across the southern waters. Waves in the bay are around 2 ft, closer
to 3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas have started to trend upward
with 4-5 ft S and 3-4 ft N.

An inverted trough of low pressure is noted over the higher terrain
of of eastern TN/KY and western portions of VA/NC. This surface
trough has formed in response to a digging upper trough that is
forecast to become a cut off low which lingers over the Southeast
for much of the upcoming week. A prolonged period of onshore
east/northeast winds is forecast between high pressure to the north
and weak low pressure/surface trough near the SC coast. Started the
southern (southern coastal waters, Currituck Sound, lower Ches Bay,
and lower James River) SCA headlines a few hours early today to
cover increasing winds and seas this afternoon. Model guidance shows
a bit of a lull in winds tonight before increasing again into
Monday morning. Went ahead and raised SCA flags for the
remainder of the bay starting at 10AM Monday but opted not to
issue any headlines for the York and Rappahannock where
confidence in timing of the stronger winds is lower. Seas will
build from south-to-north tonight with all coastal waters firmly
in the 4-5 ft range by early Monday morning. Thus, maintained
the 4AM start time for the northern coastal water`s SCA. Seas
continue to build on Monday with 5-7 ft S and 4-6 ft N by
sunset. Waves in the bay will range from 2-4 ft on Monday with
4-5 ft near the mouth of the bay. Conditions will remain largely
steady from Monday into Tuesday with continued onshore flow.
Winds are forecast to begin to weaken somewhat Tuesday night but
considerable uncertainty exists with respect to the upper low`s
placement which will have downstream effects on the surface
pressure pattern/orientation and resulting wind fields.
Regardless, seas look to remain above SCA thresholds through
Wednesday before continuing to slowly subside late this week.

The persistent cut off low moves N and weakens on Friday before
finally sliding offshore on Saturday. The result will be lighter
winds (shifting to S) Friday which will become SW Sunday through
Sunday night. High pressure builds in Sunday. Waves subside to 1 to
2 ft and seas subside to 2 to 3 feet. Sub-SCA winds and waves
expected at this time.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Moderate risk for rip currents today, forecast to increase to
high risk from VA Beach south on Mon and all beaches on Tue
given building seas and onshore flow. At this time, not
anticipating much in the way of tidal flooding into the coast
and Bay, though current forecasts have water levels at some
sites into action stage Tue-Wed so there is some potential for
minor flooding.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632>634-638-
656-658.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ650-652-654.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RHR/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

618 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

The challenge in today/tonight`s forecast is the small precip
chances. A weak disturbance is moving across the area, allowing
very weak reflectivity returns across the forecast area. This
continues from activity over the High Plains this morning. Earlier runs of the HRRR and NAMNest kept this
spotty sprinkle activity ongoing through the area, so have updated
the forecast to add it throughout the day. However, with cloud
bases generally over 12kft and significant 30-40+ temp/dewpoint
spreads, not sure any of the weak reflectivity returns are even
reaching the ground...but cannot rule out a stray sprinkle here or
there, thus have it in through the day moving from west to east.
This cloud cover has put a bit of a hit into temps...over portions
of the area, with the thickest cloud cover seeing slightly cooler
temps and areas to the east seeing temps slightly exceeding
expectations as of 3pm.

Tonight much of the models continue to indicate activity
developing over the High Plains/Sandhills...and as of 3pm a few
diurnally driven storms have developed north of Ogallala, NE.
There is question if this activity will move into central
Nebraska...but with enough guidance indicating the potential, kept
the low chances in the forecast. Did push back the start time
until closer to midnight...vs and evening thing. High res guidance
shows activity developing or lingering partly in support of a
strong low level jet/moisture transport. Thus have pops through
the overnight hours. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Monday...similar to today...a number of high-res models indicate
the potential for light precip early Monday...have included
sprinkle chances until mid-morning for much of the central and
eastern portions of the area. This shouldn`t amount to much if it
does. Monday will continue to be hot, dry and breezy. Southerly
winds will persist and highs will again be in the 90s for all.

As previous forecaster has mentioned, fire concerns are slightly
elevated with strong winds and low relative humidities and with a
lack of much recent moisture...fuels are drying out. The main
threat for this is for the southwestern portions of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

The main upper pattern will persist with the upper ridging pushing
eastward into the middle of the week. The upper trough over the
Northwest will sit there through at least the first half of the
work week...a number of disturbances will eject northeastward out
of the base of the trough, but the main energy is far enough north
that it shouldn`t impact the Central Plains a lot. However, by
Wednesday night into Thursday a front associated with one of the
stronger disturbances moving northeast into the Northern Plains
will move through the area. Now that being said...there is a lack
of confidence on exactly when this front will move through the
region...and when it does...we are in a favorable pattern for
strong to severe thunderstorms...so that is something to watch for
mid-late along and ahead of this frontal passage.

Once the front does move through...the main question is what will
happen with it. Will it move south of the area, will it move back
and forth...north and south across the area? This question impacts
precipitation potential and temperatures quite a bit, and expect
revisions to both a number of times before consensus wins out.

The upper pattern does shift becoming more zonal and unsettled for
the weekend then northwesterly as the ridge builds in back to the
west by the end of the weekend.

Highs for the first half of the week remain in the 90s and ahead
of this front...southerly winds will remain breezy. Once the front
moves through...it will impact temps...as will any
precipitation...so the end of the week`s temp forecast is
difficult at best...but thinking at least cooler than the first
half of the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Kept the forecast
dry, with confidence in any impactful precipitation affecting the
terminal sites remaining low. Expecting gusty southerly winds to
continue through the period, diminishing a touch overnight before
picking back up after sunrise tomorrow. Even with the gusty
conditions, models continue to show the potential for LLWS
starting around 02Z and continuing into the early morning hours.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

725 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

H5 analysis from earlier this morning had high pressure
anchored over Oklahoma with a high amplitude ridge extending north
into central Manitoba. West of the ridge, a closed low was located
over central Washington State with a trough extending south into
northern Nevada. Downstream of the ridge, a weaker, closed low was
located over east central Indiana. A trough extended south from this
feature into northeastern Florida. Across the Central Plains, weak
disturbances, oriented from western North Dakota into the Nebraska
Panhandle were present. This led to some elevated instability and
clouds earlier this morning from western North Dakota into western
Kansas. This cloud cover had begun to dissipate by mid-day as it
progresses east into the ridge axis. At the surface, low pressure was
located over southern Saskatchewan with a cold front extending south
southwest into central Wyoming. A stationary front extended to the
southeast into far NE Nebraska and central Missouri. A surface
trough of low pressure extended south into west central Nebraska and
denoted a wind shift line with southerly winds east of the feature
and southwest and westerly winds west of this feature. Skies this
afternoon were partly cloudy to mostly clear and temperatures ranged
from 85 at Ainsworth and O`Neill to 96 at Gordon and Imperial.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Thunderstorm chances,
mainly this evening, followed by temperatures, will be the main
forecast challenges over the next 24 to 36 hours. For tonight: The
latest CAMS and high res models including the NAM Nest and the HRRR
develop some isolated convection INVOF the surface trough during the
20 to 22z time frame this afternoon. This activity will try to
progress to the east and northeast into the evening hours and will
be aided to some degree by an increasing low level jet. However, I
do not see much of this convection reaching the northeastern
portions of the forecast area much after midnight. As this activity
migrates east, it will lift into the H5 ridge axis, which will
weaken it quickly. As for the severe threat further west, meager low
level moisture, and inverted V type soundings as indicated in the
12z KLBF RAOB, would suggest a gusty wind threat. This is supported
by forecast D CAPE`s around 1500 J/KG generally west of a line from
North Platte to Bassett. As for a hail and wind threat: Fairly weak
deep layer shear, high LCL`s and very high freezing levels suggest
little or no tornado threat and a very limited hail threat. Heavy
rain does not appear to be a major issue this evening as well as the
12z KLBF RAOB indicate storm motions in the 30 to 40 KT range and
PWATS around 3/4ths of an inch. As for lows tonight, I utilized a
blend of persistence and the warmer MAV guidance, and tossed out the
MET guidance as it seemed too cool given the degree of winds
tonight. Believe this was the best course of action, given the
favorable mixing setup overnight which will keep lows elevated. A
mid level shortwave, lifting across North Dakota tonight, will force
the before mentioned cold front into northwestern South Dakota Monday
morning, stalling this feature over southern South Dakota Monday
afternoon. South of the front, temperatures will surge into the
lower to middle 90s once again across western and north central
Nebraska. Given the expected dew points in the lower to middle 50s
for Monday, highs were trended toward the warmer ECS and MAV
statistical guidance and the MET was thrown out.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

The hot dome of air will remain in place across the forecast area
through Wednesday. Highs both days will reach well into the 90s.
By Wednesday evening, a shortwave trough will finally make its way
into North Dakota and southern Canada. This will force a cold
front through the area Wednesday night. Along the front, we could
see our best chances for precipitation up to this point in the
forecast period. In fact, highs behind the front Thursday and
Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Forecast highs will
remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s into Saturday and Sunday.
Behind the front there will be an increased threat for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday into Sunday with the greatest threat being
on Friday night.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Gusty south winds will diminish some this evening but remain
strong off the surface which will lead to low-level wind shear.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will also be possible
through midnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
tonight and into Monday.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

626 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2020

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicate a blocking pattern with a
prominent mid/upper level ridge from the Southern Plains to the
Upper Mississippi Valley and northwest Ontario. At the surface,
southeast low level winds were increasing through MN, WI and
western Upper Michigan between a ridge from the Quebec into the
central Great Lakes and a trough over the western Plains. Mostly
sunny skies prevailed with only a few high clouds filtering into the
area from the northwest.

Tonight, even with very dry air lingering over the area, the
increasing se winds will hold temps from dropping off as far. Expect
min readings from the lower 40s inland central and east to the upper
40s near Lake Superior where downslope flow prevails.

Monday, a band of elevated shra/tsra is expected to develop to the
west of Upper Michigan in an area of stronger 850 mb theta-e
advection with a 40 knot low level jet. Forecast MUCAPE values into
the 1000-1500 range will support convective potential. However,
expect the pcpn to weaken as it moves into western Upper Michigan
from 12z-15z as it encounters the much drier air to the east and
as the LLJ weakens during the morning. Otherwise, WAA will help
push temps into the upper 70s west and lower 70s east with cooler
conditions along Lake Michigan. Mixing heights may be lower, but
should be enough to drop dewpoints into the mid 30s central and
east resulting in RH values to around 25 percent. Winds also
gusting to around 20 mph will result in continuing fire weather
concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2020

This week is still setting up to be a warm or even hot one, with
highs in the 80s or even low 90s Tuesday through at least Thursday
and increasing humidity as well. The end of the week continues to
look unsettled with the approach of a cold front, but the slowing
trend of the past few days continues, with precip now not expected
until late Thursday at the earliest. Cooler weather is still likely
behind the front, but it may end up taking a while for the front to
clear the area given that blocking downstream isn`t expected to ease
up until at least Saturday.

Kicking things off Monday night, it`s still looking warm and breezy
with a southwesterly LLJ moving in from the west. That breeze will
keep temps up overnight, especially downslope of the higher terrain
where models often seem to struggle to capture how warm it can be
overnight. Went towards the very high end of guidance in those areas
resulting in low in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and then closer to the
cooler statistical guidance over the interior where lows should
still at least make it into the upper 40s. The warming trend
continues Tuesday through Thursday with GEFS mean 850 mb temps still
around 17-19 C all three days, with various deterministic guidance
still peaking at around 20 C early Wednesday morning. Once again
went with more or less the 75th percentile for high temps, although
once again had to pencil out some of the unrealistically hot temps
in some known trouble spots for the bias-corrected guidance. Should
easily see highs on Tuesday in the 80s west half and upper 70s east
half with a few 90-degree readings possible over the interior west.
Given the warming aloft, Wednesday still looks like the hottest day
with highs in at least the mid 80s everywhere except the immediate
Lake Michigan shoreline and much of the area flirting with 90. Given
the south to southwest downslope wind, the Lake Superior lakebreeze
will have a tough time pushing inland at all allowing Marquette and
Houghton to both reach right around 90 for a high. The nights will
be getting warmer too; both Tuesday night and Wednesday night should
be about 5 degrees warmer than Monday night. Thursday now looks
nearly as hot as Wednesday given how much the cold front has slowed
down in the models over the past couple of days.

But that front will eventually make it here. Best guess right now is
sometime late Thursday. With it being delayed, confidence is
increasing that there will be enough instability built up to allow
for thunderstorms with the front Thursday evening and right through
the day Friday. With the front having outrun and deeper forcing or
stronger wind aloft, shear profiles look paltry, so strong to severe
storms seem very unlikely at this point. However there may end up
being a little bit of a flash flood concern by Friday depending on
just how much the front stalls. Modest CAPE with tall skinny
profiles, little to no shear, shear vectors oriented along the
front, warm cloud depths modeled to be over 11 kft, and PWATs
approaching or exceeding 1.5" are all ingredients for efficient
heavy rain production. So far the models don`t depict any dramatic
QPF "bombs" yet but the pattern is there so the Thursday night-
Friday time period may bear watching, especially as it gets into
range of the higher-res guidance.

Temps this weekend remain uncertain owing to uncertainty in how
quickly the front clears the area - or doesn`t. Therefore did not
deviate from the NBM which shows highs cooling back off into the 70s
for next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 626 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2020

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast periods.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2020

High pres well off to the east with a low pres trough slowly moving
toward the Upper Great Lakes is expected through Wed. Although winds
should remain mostly under 20kt, the pattern is favorable for some
stronger winds at times that may gust to 20-30kt at high obs
platforms, particularly over the e half of Lake Superior.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

931 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Scattered convection that was ongoing across North Central
Louisiana has almost entirely dissipated. A few isolated storms
continue just south of the CWA, and these could brush portions of
our southern-most parishes just east of Toledo Bend Reservoir
prior to 04z. However, the overall coverage and chances for rain
are far too low to warrant inserting mentionable PoPs.

Otherwise, the forecast looks to be largely on track this evening.
No updates are anticipated.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

AVIATION...
For the 15/00z TAFs, scattered convection moving west over North
Central Louisiana is gradually weakening and should dissipate
completely during the first couple of hours of the period.
Otherwise, VFR and SKC conditions should prevail at most sites
for the next 24 hours. Some brief, patchy fog cannot be
completely ruled out around sunrise, especially around KLFK.
Otherwise, easterly or northeasterly surface winds will continue
during the day Monday with more daytime cu likely.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/

Nice cumulus field along and south of I-20, and few cu to the
north as well. Radar is showing some good return from echos to our
East. Nothing real exciting in our area just yet, but a cluster
of showers is cross the MS River now near Friday and St Joseph. A
few isolated showers are also seen near Winnsboro, all of this
activity is moving Westward at 10 mph. Some of this will get into
cenLA and maybe toward Toledo Bend before nightfall.

Otherwise, another nice late Spring day with air temps close to
average in the upper 80s and mostly low 90s. Heat index is about
the same with relative humidity at 40 percent last hour. The
models HRRR is best with depiction of spotty isolated coverage
expected for several more hours. We are still locked into the same
pattern with the upper low core dropping into the East coast long
wave and upper level ridging from Texas into the middle MS River
valley.

Expect light and variable to calm winds overnight with highest
dew points in the area likely to see patchy fog perhaps in the
coming nights with lows in the upper 60s still for an average.
Highs tomorrow in the lower 90s once again with a few mid 90s for
good measure. /24/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday Night/

Upper ridge axis to remain amplified from the Rio Grande Valley nwd
into the Great Lakes Region, as an upper low churns over the sern
CONUS and another trof axis lingers over the nrn Rockies. This
pattern looks to hold on through the upcoming work week, with weak
high pressure at the sfc continuing to hold. Temps likely to
continue to gradually moderate upwards, as abundant sunshine and
lack of rainfall will contribute to drying soils/vegetation.

Upper trof axis over the nwrn CONUS may finally erode the ridge axis
enough towards the end of the week and into next weekend that we
begin to see some at least isold aftn convection. As the upper trof
finally is able to push ewd into the Plains, we may see some
slightly better rain chances with an associated cold front late
Saturday. /12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 10
MLU 68 93 69 91 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 66 93 68 93 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 67 91 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 65 93 67 90 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 70 92 70 93 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 68 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 69 93 70 95 / 0 10 0 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/13