Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
754 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Quick update to expand PoPs eastward where additional showers and
thunderstorms have developed. Though storms will generally be on the
decrease through the evening, gusty winds will remain possible with
any storm. Showers and a few thunderstorms may linger through the
overnight hours across north central NM. Updates out shortly.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...545 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across central and western
New Mexico through the evening hours. Brief heavy rainfall, gusty and
erratic downburst winds and small hail will be possible with the
strongest storms. In general, storms will move toward the northeast
around 15 to 20 mph. After 9pm, remaining storms will be focused
across northern NM, with continuing impacts possible at KLVS. All
storms should diminish prior to sunrise Sunday, and Sunday`s crop of
storms looks to be more meager than today. Storms on Sunday will
favor similar areas as today, with gusty winds the main concern.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern
New Mexico this evening. Some storms may produce strong and erratic
wind gusts and hail. Showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday will
again develop over southwest to north central New Mexico. Drier air
may begin to dominate mid to late next week, with diminishing
chances for showers and storms over the west and central. Daytime
highs next week will be above average east and within a few degrees
of normal west and central.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A round of daytime heating triggered convection got off to an early
start and is currently limited by weak/modest forcing and
instability. However, drier westerlies will punch into western NM
this evening and may help with the forcing as moisture convergence
sharpens up west of the RGV to produce a few strong to severe
storms. Large hail is possible, but the primary threat will be
erratic gusts to between 50-60 mph. The latest HRRR and HREF 1hr
mean qpf shows convection moving northeast across the Albuquerque
Metro between 4-7PM with strong outflow winds. Convection may
continue longer into the evening hours across the northern mountains
thanks to the added forcing from the westerlies punching in.
Dry westerlies will penetrate a little further east into central NM
overnight as a trough axis rotates northeast into the Rockies. This
will lead to a downtrend in PWATs across western NM and will place
the most notable moisture convergence on Sunday across central NM,
from the northern mountains south along the RGV, where we expect
another round of daytime heating triggered convection. A deepening
lee side trough on Sunday will lead to another windy day for much of
northeast NM, with breezy conditions forecast elsewhere. Highs on
Sunday will be within a few degrees of normal most areas.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The theta-e ridge axis will favor western and northern New Mexico on
Monday although it`s forecast to tilt clockwise somewhat from Monday
to Tuesday. Mid to late week drier air is forecast to push into he
northwest third of the region, shunting deeper moisture to the south
and east. A surface boundary will push into northeast New Mexico
later Thursday. Models don`t bring the boundary all the way to the
central mountain chain and on Friday a lee trough is back in place.
Therefore pops will favor the western and northern high terrain
early in the week, then shift to the south on Wednesday, then the
northeast and east Thursday and Friday.
Afternoon westerly breezes to assist in holding high temperatures
several degrees above normal through the week, while the central and
west will be within a few degrees of normal.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TODAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY...
Critical fire weather conditions prevail across portions of
northeast NM this afternoon, where a Red Flag Warning is currently
in effect. A round of mostly wetting storms is underway across
western and northern NM and will continue into the evening hours.
Dry westerlies will punch into western NM Sunday, bringing back hot,
dry and unstable conditions to areas west of the Continental Divide.
Another round of mostly wetting storms is forecast Sunday across
central NM, while the potential for critical fire weather conditions
is still expected across east central and northeast portions of the
state. However, Haines values will range from 3-4 and humidity may
have a hard time reaching critical threshold. A watch is still in
place for the northeast plains, but forecast confidence is low for
that area at this time. If anything, the east central plains may
have a better chance at hitting critical threshold Sunday afternoon.
The upcoming work-week will feature an active jet stream across the
central and northern Intermountain West, with weak west-southwest
flow across the Desert Southwest and New Mexico. A gradual decrease
in atmospheric moisture is forecast, with a downtrend in daily
rounds of storms and associated wetting footprint. By mid week, hot,
dry and unstable conditions will likely reside across much of
western and central NM, with chances for wetting storms increasing
closer to the TX border. Winds will likely remain below critical
threshold.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for
the following zones... NMZ104.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
751 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Cold front has pushed east of Billings as of 730 pm. Winds along
the western foothills are gusting 30-40 mph, but the threat of
high winds at Livingston and Nye have ended w/ the onset of cold
advection. For this reason have cancelled the Wind Advisory for
these areas.
Satellite imagery shows a low over the PacNW coast, a strong ridge
axis centered over the eastern Dakotas, and deep southwest flow in
our region. Air mass in our east is unstable but still capped,
though we have seen a couple of weak t-storms over the past couple
hours. To the west, there is some weak convection developing
behind the wind shift, mainly in the north, with plenty of dry air
surging out of WY. Will keep isolated pops for our north and east
thru the evening, but the risk of a severe storm is low.
PV axis across the great basin will rotate northward tonight into
Sunday morning, and this along with moistening mid levels and
elevated instability should yield greater shower coverage (w/
embedded t-storms) late tonight into tomorrow morning. A nocturnal
strong storm is possible in our east where showalters will remain
negative.
Have made some minor adjustments to pops, winds and temps per
current trends.
Today was the warmest day yet of 2020 for many locations,
including 96 degrees at Billings, and 98 degrees at both Sheridan
and Miles City.
JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday night...
Upper trough sitting over western Idaho was creating quite an
interesting weather day for the forecast area. Thermal ridge
sitting over the area was allowing temperatures to surge into the
90s for most locations. Temperatures have actually reached the
upper 90s early this afternoon in Sheridan. Winds in Sheridan were
actually gusting to 40 mph too, which is pretty unusual for this
time of year there. Strong winds aloft have yet to mix down at
Livingston but expect Advisory to near Advisory winds there late
this afternoon and early this evening. A tight surface pressure
gradient was producing wind gusts up to 55 mph at Baker too. A
surface low over southern Montana were keeping readings in the 80s
over the west.
Convection should be held at bay, for the most part, as main
upper level forcing remains west and surface forcing (dewpoint
discontinuity from south central zones to the southeast zones)
will be inhibited by a strong cap. HRRR and the RAP models all
generate some convection over the southeast zones late this
afternoon and this evening. CU filed and a couple of in cloud
lightning flashes over northeast Wyoming, support this concept.
Heights lower tonight and Sunday and this will allow forcing to
move into western and central zones. Strongest dynamics have been
shifting north over the past couple of runs, so backed off some on
PoPs for Sunday, but kept the idea of scattered PoPs for most of
the day. Biggest impact on Sunday will be cooler temperatures. A
cold front will push through this evening and highs on Sunday
behind the front will be about 20 degrees cooler. The 90s will be
replaced by 70s. Sunday will be a little breezy as winds aloft
mix down in the afternoon, but winds are not expected to be nearly
as strong as today. SPC highlights a slight risk of severe storms
just to the east of the area (in the western Dakotas). Feel this
may be a late morning to early afternoon thing, as highest MU
cape shifts east quickly in the afternoon. TWH
Monday through Saturday...
An upper trough will dominate our weather with unsettled
conditions for much of the next week.
On Monday we will be under southwesterly flow aloft as the upper
trough will be positioned just off the British Columbia/Washington
coast. There appears to be enough subsidence on the southwestern
side of a shortwave trough moving within the southwesterly flow
into northeast MT and south central Canada that the Northern
Rockies region should be dry during the day.
The upper trough will slowly move eastward during the week, which
will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the
region beginning Monday night and persisting into Saturday. The
period with greatest atmospheric moisture content (precipitable
water) appears to be Tuesday afternoon into the evening, so this
is a window with heavier rainfall potential. Models are
indicating that south central MT has the greatest probability of
0.1 inch or more of rainfall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning. At this time the ensemble model solutions are not
highlighting any big severe weather outbreaks for the Northern
Rockies, but given climatology, strong thunderstorm risk will be
better assessed in the short term forecast.
High temperatures will generally be in the 70s and lower 80s on
Monday, then 60s and 70s Tuesday through Thursday, 60s on Friday,
and 70s on Saturday. RMS
&&
.AVIATION...
A cold front moving into the region from the west will bring areas
of gusty winds and a shift from southerly to northwest winds this
evening. Look for 30-40 kt gusts along the western foothills.
Southerly gusts to 40 kts near the Dakotas border will finally
shift to a lighter northwest wind Sunday morning.
Otherwise, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the region tonight into early tomorrow. Shower coverage will
increase west of KBIL on Sunday, resulting in localized MVFR and
occasional mountain obscurations.
JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/076 046/080 055/070 048/068 046/070 050/066 049/075
23/T 20/B 36/T 62/W 12/T 33/T 22/T
LVM 049/065 039/073 050/064 042/064 042/068 045/066 046/074
37/T 51/B 68/T 73/T 22/T 34/T 32/T
HDN 058/078 047/082 054/073 049/069 046/072 050/069 048/076
23/T 20/B 25/T 62/W 12/T 33/T 22/T
MLS 063/077 051/080 057/075 050/068 048/071 050/066 049/074
23/T 30/U 13/T 52/W 12/T 23/T 22/T
4BQ 063/079 049/082 056/077 049/069 046/072 049/066 048/072
22/T 10/U 02/T 42/W 22/T 34/T 33/T
BHK 065/081 050/077 057/078 049/068 046/071 048/065 046/070
23/T 20/U 11/E 42/W 22/W 23/T 22/T
SHR 058/079 046/082 054/077 047/070 045/073 048/068 048/073
12/T 10/B 13/T 52/W 12/T 33/T 32/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
...Updated Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Loaded up the NAM/WRF temps and dew points heading into this
afternoon, which trend with drier dew points and a few locations
hitting 100 degrees the west central sections of Kansas. Not much
changing needed in the winds this time.
A very dry lower and middle troposphere will preclude any
reasonable chance for storms. Even this evening as
orographic/higher terrain convection develops out of Colorado and
moves east, the 700 mb temps around 14 deg C should also
contribute to suppressing connection before it reaches the western
periphery. As the night goes on, the HRRR has been showing a
narrow corridor of convection in the western counties for a few
hours centered around 12z but this has been inconsistent between
the various convective allowing models. A mild overnight as lows
may not get out of the 70s in sections of central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 PM CDT
Sat Jun 13 2020
Continued hot afternoon temperatures imposed by southwest downslope
breezy to windy conditions are forecast each afternoon through
Wednesday. There is an indication of a frontal boundary maybe late
wednesday or early Thursday (GFS 20km) that would bring a respite to
the hot weather and presumably a return to thunderstorm chances
given enough moisture. Looking at the ECMWF - no tue airmass
change takes place with north winds driving through the entire areas
of central and western Kansas until the weekend. So although
thunderstorm chances increase from under 15% by mid week, the area
is likely to remain largely hot and dry until some point late in the
e weekend. That opportunity looks short lives as well as hot
southwesterly downslope flow resumes by next Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle. A low level jet will
continue through 12z Sun, with 850 mb winds of 45-50 kts, and
included low level wind shear in all TAFs through the night.
South winds will remain elevated all night, gusting 24-27 kts,
with a brief relative minimum in wind intensity around sunrise.
After 15z Sun, strong SW winds will again impact aviation
operations with gusts of 35-37 kts at all airports. Another
round of low level wind shear is expected Sunday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 99 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 69 98 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 67 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 69 99 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
P28 68 99 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Turner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Today is warm and breezy. Highs are a bit cooler in the far west,
but warming up nicely as expected in central, eastern and
southern portions of the area.
Tonight is expected to be dry with precip potential to our east
and west. Lows will be in the 60s for the most part.
The main question in the forecast is precipitation potential
Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. There is a
weak wave moving across the area and with daytime heating, feel
that thunderstorm potential is possible to the west of the
area...and moving into western and northwestern sections. The
GFS/NAM and HRRR show this the most with the GFS and HRRR the most
robust for this activity. All of that being said, have kept it to
14s in the POP Forecast for now, but think 20s will be needed in
the future to account for scattered thunderstorm chances.
Sunday`s highs will be in the 90s areawide with breezy wind
conditions. Southerly winds will be gusting to the 35 mph or so
during the afternoon hours.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Monday through Wednesday:
Hot and breezy conditions will persist through the first half of
the week as the upper ridge transitions eastward and the area
remains under southwesterly flow. Highs in the 90s will persist
with winds gusting into the 30s(mph) through Wednesday
Wednesday night - Saturday:
A front will move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a
cool down and the next chance or precipitation. South central
Nebraska/north central Kansas will remain north of the
front...keeping the second half of the work week a bit cooler with
scattered precipitation/thunderstorm chances.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period.
Main concern will remain with gusty winds through the period and
potential for LLWS tonight. Overall, the wind direction will
change very little, from the current southeasterly direction to
more southerly. Gusts around 25 MPH will be possible tonight, but
even with gusty winds, models remain in good agreement showing
the potential for LLWS at both sites, with direction also turning
from southeast to south with time. During the daytime hours
tomorrow, gusts will be closer to 30 MPH.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
805 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Update issued to cancel the Red Flag Warning for today, and have
adjusted the winds up a few mph for Sunday. Looks like numbers
for tomorrow were a bit too low in comparison to what occurred
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1239 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge
in place over the pains with the axis of the ridge now centered
over eastern CWA extending north to the Canadian border. At the
surface warm front extended eastward from surface low across
eastern Colorado, running roughly along Interstate 70. To the
south of front, critical fire weather conditions were already
being observed.
Forecast concerns will center around fire weather concerns
tomorrow as well as small thunderstorm chances each afternoon.
For tonight...Strong capping to north of warm front and very
warm/dry conditions to south of it make it very unlikely that any
storms will initiate along front. Think any chance for
thunderstorms will have to be with storms developing over the
mountains and propagating along outflow`s eastward. With very
high cloud bases, limited instability and high DCAPE would limit
the threats to be strong winds and perhaps dry lightning.
Sunday...Warm and dry airmass will overspread the entire area by
sunrise with gusty southerly winds and low humidities leading to
another period of critical fire weather (please see fire wx
section for specifics). Deeply mixed boundary layer and weak
instability will bring potential for high based thunderstorms
mainly across western CWA where influence of ridge will be be
weakest and heating the strongest. Not expecting much
precipitation out of these, but could defiantly see gusty winds
and perhaps dry lightning which could increase fire threats.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Upper ridge will only slowly move eastward through Wednesday, with
hot and mainly dry conditions. Cannot rule out an isolated high
based storm during the afternoon and evening, but coverage and
low probability of actually getting measurable precipitation will
keep pops at 20 or below. Heat and fire weather concerns will be
the main story. Expecting high temperatures in the upper 90s to
near 100. Relative humidity will drop into the teens each
afternoon resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind
speeds on Monday are marginal at best for critical conditions,
with the gustier winds in the east and lowest humidity in the
west, so will forego a watch on Monday at this time. Tuesday looks
better with gusty south winds forecast for the entire area and
critical conditions likely. Winds are lighter again on Wednesday.
For Thursday through Saturday the ridge will move far enough east
to allow a cold front to slip into the area and potentially become
stationary. High temperatures will be in the 80s with higher
humidity so the fire weather threat will end. Pattern will be
favorable for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with a
low level upslope regime and falling upper heights associated with
an upper low in the northern Rockies, as well as the frontal
boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 513 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
VFR skies thru the forecast period for both terminals.
Winds for KGLD, S 15-30kts thru 04z Sunday, then 10-15kts. By
15z, SW 20-30kts. LLWS 04z-05z 190@45kts for Flight Level 020.
Winds for KMCK, ESE 10-20kts thru 04z Sunday, then SE around
10kts. By 14z SW around 15kts, increasing to around 15-25kts by
16z. LLWS 04z-14z 180@45kts for Flight Level 020.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254.
NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
633 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from
the Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan and troughing over the eastern
CONUS. A well-defined shortwave/swirl sliding southeast into
northern WI has brought little more than some high clouds in the
very dry airmass over the region. Otherwise, sfc ridging from James
Bay into the western Great Lakes has brought mostly sunny skies with
few/sct inland cu prevailed with unseasonably cool air.
Tonight, another round of cool/cold conditions is expected as PWAT
values remain in the very dry 0.20-0.40 inch range. With favorable
radiational cooling conditions, temps will drop into the low to mid
30s over interior favored locations central where a Frost Advisory
was issued. As the ridge builds slightly to the east, an increase
in ssw boundary layer winds over the west will keep temps from
dropping off as far over the west.
Sunday, with increasing WAA and 850 mb temps climbing to around
7C, expect inland readings to around 70. Wind field will remain
light enough to allow lake breezes to develop. Mixing to 4k-5k ft
will again drop dewpoints into the lower 30s, resulting in min RH
values to around 25 pct. With only light to moderate winds and the
abundant rain last week, fire wx concerns should remain limited.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020
A mostly dry long-term period awaits, but with the current warming
trend continuing into the middle of next week. There could be some
showers around on Tuesday with a warm front - mainly west - but that
looks like a pretty low chance at the moment. The next chance for
more significant rain is not until next Thursday when a cold front
slowly pushes through the area. There could be some thunderstorms
with that front as well but it`s still awfully far out to think
about severity, especially when the timing of the frontal passage is
still in play. Slightly cooler weather then returns again for the
end of next week behind the front.
Sunday night, the axis of mid-level ridging will be nudging in from
the west. At the surface, strong high pressure will persist in an
elongated ridge encompassing the Upper Great Lakes and much of
Ontario and Quebec. This ridging will keep things dry with clear
skies expected. Southerly gradient flow on the western periphery of
low-level ridging may keep the downslope areas along the Lake
Superior shoreline slightly warmer overnight with lows in the mid
40s but otherwise lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to
around 40. During the day on Monday, some light scattered showers
will try to make it into the far west, but mostly dry up before they
reach the area as they run into such strong subsidence from the
aforementioned ridging that will be moving only slightly eastward.
However that subtle eastward shift in the ridge will be enough to
increase the gradient and produce breezy southwest flow that will
advect warmer air in. That could mean a return to fire weather
conditions Monday, considering it will have been dry for several
days in a row by that point. Models show a tight mid-level moisture
gradient by Monday afternoon with finally some moisture making it
into the west half, but the east half staying very dry aloft.
Meanwhile, the stronger winds will be mainly over the west half, and
the southerly flow will probably advect slightly cooler Lake
Michigan marine layer northward into the eastern U.P., so we may end
up seeing the west half being warm and breezy but not terribly dry,
and the east half being much drier but not as warm or as breezy,
which would limit fire weather potential. Nonetheless, with
afternoon RH as low as 20-25% it`s something that bears watching.
The warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with GEFS mean 850
mb temps around 18 C both days and as warm as 20 C by Wednesday
morning in the deterministic EC. Went with more or less the 75th
percentile for high temps, although some of the bias-corrected
guidance went pretty crazy with highs on Wednesday so had to then
walk that back a bit. Should easily see highs on Tuesday in the 80s
(70s right along Lake Michigan given the southerly flow) to around
90 west. Highs Wednesday will be about 5 degrees warmer across the
board, with mid to upper 80s over much of the west and central and
low 90s likely over the notoriously warm spots of the interior west.
As teased above, the only real weather-maker in the long-term period
is the cold front that will be slowly approaching from the west by
Wednesday night. Given the rex block over the eastern U.S. and that
models are almost always too quick to break down such a strong
blocking pattern, favored slowing the arrival of POPs Wednesday
night and Thursday closer to CONSRaw. Think any precip will hold off
until at least the daylight hours on Thursday for most of us. Given
the warmth and increasing humidity, should be adequate instability
for thunderstorms with the front. At the moment shear looks too weak
for any decent storm organization but still plenty of time to watch
that. After Thursday, left the NBM POPs in which are usually too
high in the extended but in this case probably aren`t too far off
given that the front may try to hang up across the Upper Great Lakes
through Friday and perhaps even into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020
VFR conditions will continue thru this fcst period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020
Mostly light winds under 20kt are expected over the next couple of
days as pres gradient remains relatively weak. However, there will
be some locally stronger winds over the far western part of the lake
where ne winds will gust as high as 20-25kt toward Duluth again Sun
afternoon. During the Mon thru Wed period, high pres will be
situated well off to the e with a low pres trof slowly moving toward
the Upper Great Lakes. Although winds should remain mostly under
20kt, the pattern is favorable for some stronger winds at times that
may gust to 20-30kt at high obs platforms, particularly over the e
half of Lake Superior.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Frost Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 7 AM EDT
/6 AM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ004>006-010-011-013-084.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
832 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
I`ve been keeping an eye on some scattered showers in Kentucky
diving south and making a run for the northern counties in our
CWA. HRRR was consistent in showing the showers dying off before
making it into our area, and it has been proven right. Besides a
few light echoes on radar, all that is left is some cloud debris.
Look for a dry, pleasant night with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Some slightly better rain chances will return tomorrow as an
upper trough dips out of the Great Lakes into the Midwest. The
current forecast looks good and no changes were made.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Upper low expected to drop down just northeast of the area on
Sunday. This may bring a few showers down as well. These showers
will be spotty and are most likely to catch CSV. They do not
expect to really impact CIGs or VSBYs, thus will keep VFR
conditions going through Sunday as well.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Isolated convection has been confined to our southern counties of
southeast MO and far western KY so far this afternoon. However,
the instability and moisture gradient extends from southeast MO into
southern IL, and over toward the Owensboro area as of 2 PM. Several
CAMs indicate isolated convection firing up mid to late afternoon in
this corridor and moving southward as it dissipates with loss of
daytime heating by 00-01z. Chances are quite low in any one location
though.
Most of the evening and overnight hours look dry, as we await mid
level energy diving southward which is currently over northern
Wisconsin. This trough axis pivots down into the mid/upper Ohio
Valley on Sunday, with a weak cold front associated with it. Drier
low level air will already be in place in our northeastern counties.
However, most CAMs suggest a band of showers moving south into the
EVV Tri-state region between 12-18z Sunday. Models suggest very
little if any instability remaining this far north, so decided to
nix thunder mention for now. Feel like the best thunder threat
tomorrow will be over our southern and western counties during the
afternoon, and that is if any convection ends up forming. Most
guidance is not very bullish on any isolated development.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Sunday across the
northeast half of the region, where readings look to only top out in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Looks like mid to upper 80s will still
be in place across southeast Missouri though. Most areas east of the
Mississippi River look to drop into the 50s for lows Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
The forecast and NBM solution is favored toward a blend/consensus of
members, with the upper Low lingering over the Southeast U.S.
through the bulk of the long term forecast period. Toward the end of
the period, the member consensus evolution of the Low is to
dissipate its identity/influence here, and otherwise move it farther
south/east and away from the PAH FA, as we transition to more zonal
westerlies sweeping across the Mississippi River Valley.
This accepted general synoptic evolution means we`ll be in a storm
retarding northeast to easterly flow regime during the first half of
the week. It will provide dew points in the 50s, and the consensus
modeling is such that we`ll be devoid of any triggering mechanisms
for parcel vertical motion/growth outside of diurnal instability.
Air temps run at or even below seasonal norms, and mostly below
convective temps, so the inherited dry forecast the first half of
the week looks a safe bet.
For the latter half of the week, as the flow continues to veer and
southerlies return, we see dew points gradually creep up into the
60s, and air temperatures begin to recover closer to or even begin
to exceed seasonal norms, pushing 90s by next weekend. A front
approaches from the north, and combined with the higher heat and
humidity, as well as diurnal destabilization, we`ll see low chance
pops return to the forecast by Days 6-7 (Friday-Saturday).
Worthy of mention is the fact that the GFS is the largely discarded
solution with regard to the upper Low`s evolution. It is among the
farthest north and west of the guidance, lingers the longest, and
would result in a little bit stormier pattern for us, including
during the first part of the week. We`ll keep an eye on consistency,
as if this trend pans out, some pop revision will be necessary.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020
With the 00z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance, attempted to account for
diurnal cumulus and convection south of a KCGI, KPAH, KOWB line.
Any remaining convection should die out after 00z Sunday. The RAP
and 4km NAMNest appears to be sampling the short term forecast
well.
The timing of the next round of convection impacting the KOWB,
KEVV, and KMVN is slightly uncertain, so hinted at passing showers
in the 16-17z Sunday time frame. The signal for convection around
that time has been consistent, but would like to see another run
before committing to categorical mention of precipitation and
ceilings for all of the previously mentioned TAF locations.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
814 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning for this evening across the
Plains. Humidity values have been rising. Winds are also beginning
to subside. However, a few wind gusts are possible in and near
showers. Mozley
UPDATE Issued at 550 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Updated precipitation chances for this evening based on the latest
radar trends and high-res model guidance. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to impact the Mountains, east into
the I-25 corridor this evening. High-res model guidance suggests
another line of storms moving across the San Luis Valley later
this evening, and dissipating over the Eastern Mountains around
midnight. Mozley
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Mid level moisture has increased across the area today, as upper
level ridge drifts east and flow aloft strengthens ahead of wrn U.S.
upper trough. Low levels remain rather dry, with dewpoints in the
20s/30s at most locations and T/Td spreads of over 50f on the
plains, suggesting rainfall will be spotty and light despite
moderate storm coverage so far this afternoon. Still a risk of a
severe wind gust or two with any stronger storms, especially back
over the mountains where instability is slightly better. Storms will
continue into the evening, with HRRR suggesting most activity dying
before it reaches the far ern tier of counties near the KS border.
Sunset should bring a downturn in convection, though models hint at
at least isolated showers lingering over much of the high terrain
past midnight. Will keep Red Flag Warning in place into the evening
for the eastern plains, as strong winds/low RH continue for a few
more hours.
Upper flow turns more wly on Sun as nrn Rockies wave lifts nwd into
Canada, with drier air spreading across much of srn CO. Still some
lingering moisture and afternoon tsra over srn mts and portions of
the ern plains, though activity looks to be fairly spotty and weak
given decreasing moisture. Deep mixing, drier air mass and more wind
are expected Sun, and Red Flag conditions will be more widespread
across the area, and will retain current warning for Sun afternoon
and evening. Hot max temps will continue, with readings approaching
100f over the lower Arkansas Valley.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Sunday night into Wednesday...An upper-level low is anticipated to
sit and spin over the Pacific Northwest into the early part of the
week before finally moving eastward late in the day Tuesday into
Wednesday. A trough associated with this upper-level low is expected
to keep us in a southwesterly flow regime, which is anticipated to
bring daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms to the mountains.
Additionally, the lower elevations should stay unseasonably warm
(temperatures running 5-10 degrees F warmer than average) and
breezy, causing prolonged critical to near critical fire weather
conditions through midweek. Have gone ahead and issued a Fire
Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening. Fire weather
highlights will probably be needed for Tuesday as well, but will
wait until we are closer to Tuesday to do so. Highs are expected to
reach the mid 90s to around 100 across the plains each day, while
the high valleys should see highs generally in the 80s.
Thursday...The upper-level trough is anticipated to continue
propagating eastward into the northern Great Plains, sending a cold
front through our region. This cold front is expected to provide
some, albeit minor, relief in temperatures. Highs across the plains
are expected to be in the low to mid 90s and highs in the high
valleys should remain in the 80s. There is also potential for the
front to spark some showers and thunderstorms across the plains.
With CAPE values potentially approaching 1000 J/kg, and depending on
the timing of the frontal passage, a strong to severe storm is
possible over the eastern plains.
Friday and Saturday...A trailing trough is anticipated to develop
behind the aforementioned trough over the Canadian Rockies, then
translate across the northern U.S. Rockies. As a result, isolated to
scattered showers and storms are anticipated to develop over the
mountains around midday each day, then the chances for precipitation
spread to the lower elevation, but confidence is low this far out to
determine how great those chances will be. For now, have left
isolated PoPs in the forecast. Highs stay in the 90s for the plains
and 80s for the high valleys each day, with Saturday shaping up to
be ever so slightly cooler than Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020
Will continue VCTS mention in all tafs into the evening, though with
dry low levels, gusty and erratic winds will be the main storm
threat. Precip tapers to showers toward sunset, then ends overnight.
VFR expected on Sun, with just a slight chance of a weak tsra in the
afternoon, with perhaps some convective outflows impacting KCOS and
KPUB late in the day.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220-222-
226>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ220-222-224-226>237.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...CARLBERG
AVIATION...PETERSEN