Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/14/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
754 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .UPDATE... Quick update to expand PoPs eastward where additional showers and thunderstorms have developed. Though storms will generally be on the decrease through the evening, gusty winds will remain possible with any storm. Showers and a few thunderstorms may linger through the overnight hours across north central NM. Updates out shortly. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...545 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Showers and thunderstorms will continue across central and western New Mexico through the evening hours. Brief heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic downburst winds and small hail will be possible with the strongest storms. In general, storms will move toward the northeast around 15 to 20 mph. After 9pm, remaining storms will be focused across northern NM, with continuing impacts possible at KLVS. All storms should diminish prior to sunrise Sunday, and Sunday`s crop of storms looks to be more meager than today. Storms on Sunday will favor similar areas as today, with gusty winds the main concern. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor western and northern New Mexico this evening. Some storms may produce strong and erratic wind gusts and hail. Showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday will again develop over southwest to north central New Mexico. Drier air may begin to dominate mid to late next week, with diminishing chances for showers and storms over the west and central. Daytime highs next week will be above average east and within a few degrees of normal west and central. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... A round of daytime heating triggered convection got off to an early start and is currently limited by weak/modest forcing and instability. However, drier westerlies will punch into western NM this evening and may help with the forcing as moisture convergence sharpens up west of the RGV to produce a few strong to severe storms. Large hail is possible, but the primary threat will be erratic gusts to between 50-60 mph. The latest HRRR and HREF 1hr mean qpf shows convection moving northeast across the Albuquerque Metro between 4-7PM with strong outflow winds. Convection may continue longer into the evening hours across the northern mountains thanks to the added forcing from the westerlies punching in. Dry westerlies will penetrate a little further east into central NM overnight as a trough axis rotates northeast into the Rockies. This will lead to a downtrend in PWATs across western NM and will place the most notable moisture convergence on Sunday across central NM, from the northern mountains south along the RGV, where we expect another round of daytime heating triggered convection. A deepening lee side trough on Sunday will lead to another windy day for much of northeast NM, with breezy conditions forecast elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be within a few degrees of normal most areas. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... The theta-e ridge axis will favor western and northern New Mexico on Monday although it`s forecast to tilt clockwise somewhat from Monday to Tuesday. Mid to late week drier air is forecast to push into he northwest third of the region, shunting deeper moisture to the south and east. A surface boundary will push into northeast New Mexico later Thursday. Models don`t bring the boundary all the way to the central mountain chain and on Friday a lee trough is back in place. Therefore pops will favor the western and northern high terrain early in the week, then shift to the south on Wednesday, then the northeast and east Thursday and Friday. Afternoon westerly breezes to assist in holding high temperatures several degrees above normal through the week, while the central and west will be within a few degrees of normal. && .FIRE WEATHER... ..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TODAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR SUNDAY... Critical fire weather conditions prevail across portions of northeast NM this afternoon, where a Red Flag Warning is currently in effect. A round of mostly wetting storms is underway across western and northern NM and will continue into the evening hours. Dry westerlies will punch into western NM Sunday, bringing back hot, dry and unstable conditions to areas west of the Continental Divide. Another round of mostly wetting storms is forecast Sunday across central NM, while the potential for critical fire weather conditions is still expected across east central and northeast portions of the state. However, Haines values will range from 3-4 and humidity may have a hard time reaching critical threshold. A watch is still in place for the northeast plains, but forecast confidence is low for that area at this time. If anything, the east central plains may have a better chance at hitting critical threshold Sunday afternoon. The upcoming work-week will feature an active jet stream across the central and northern Intermountain West, with weak west-southwest flow across the Desert Southwest and New Mexico. A gradual decrease in atmospheric moisture is forecast, with a downtrend in daily rounds of storms and associated wetting footprint. By mid week, hot, dry and unstable conditions will likely reside across much of western and central NM, with chances for wetting storms increasing closer to the TX border. Winds will likely remain below critical threshold. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones... NMZ104. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
751 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .UPDATE... Cold front has pushed east of Billings as of 730 pm. Winds along the western foothills are gusting 30-40 mph, but the threat of high winds at Livingston and Nye have ended w/ the onset of cold advection. For this reason have cancelled the Wind Advisory for these areas. Satellite imagery shows a low over the PacNW coast, a strong ridge axis centered over the eastern Dakotas, and deep southwest flow in our region. Air mass in our east is unstable but still capped, though we have seen a couple of weak t-storms over the past couple hours. To the west, there is some weak convection developing behind the wind shift, mainly in the north, with plenty of dry air surging out of WY. Will keep isolated pops for our north and east thru the evening, but the risk of a severe storm is low. PV axis across the great basin will rotate northward tonight into Sunday morning, and this along with moistening mid levels and elevated instability should yield greater shower coverage (w/ embedded t-storms) late tonight into tomorrow morning. A nocturnal strong storm is possible in our east where showalters will remain negative. Have made some minor adjustments to pops, winds and temps per current trends. Today was the warmest day yet of 2020 for many locations, including 96 degrees at Billings, and 98 degrees at both Sheridan and Miles City. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday night... Upper trough sitting over western Idaho was creating quite an interesting weather day for the forecast area. Thermal ridge sitting over the area was allowing temperatures to surge into the 90s for most locations. Temperatures have actually reached the upper 90s early this afternoon in Sheridan. Winds in Sheridan were actually gusting to 40 mph too, which is pretty unusual for this time of year there. Strong winds aloft have yet to mix down at Livingston but expect Advisory to near Advisory winds there late this afternoon and early this evening. A tight surface pressure gradient was producing wind gusts up to 55 mph at Baker too. A surface low over southern Montana were keeping readings in the 80s over the west. Convection should be held at bay, for the most part, as main upper level forcing remains west and surface forcing (dewpoint discontinuity from south central zones to the southeast zones) will be inhibited by a strong cap. HRRR and the RAP models all generate some convection over the southeast zones late this afternoon and this evening. CU filed and a couple of in cloud lightning flashes over northeast Wyoming, support this concept. Heights lower tonight and Sunday and this will allow forcing to move into western and central zones. Strongest dynamics have been shifting north over the past couple of runs, so backed off some on PoPs for Sunday, but kept the idea of scattered PoPs for most of the day. Biggest impact on Sunday will be cooler temperatures. A cold front will push through this evening and highs on Sunday behind the front will be about 20 degrees cooler. The 90s will be replaced by 70s. Sunday will be a little breezy as winds aloft mix down in the afternoon, but winds are not expected to be nearly as strong as today. SPC highlights a slight risk of severe storms just to the east of the area (in the western Dakotas). Feel this may be a late morning to early afternoon thing, as highest MU cape shifts east quickly in the afternoon. TWH Monday through Saturday... An upper trough will dominate our weather with unsettled conditions for much of the next week. On Monday we will be under southwesterly flow aloft as the upper trough will be positioned just off the British Columbia/Washington coast. There appears to be enough subsidence on the southwestern side of a shortwave trough moving within the southwesterly flow into northeast MT and south central Canada that the Northern Rockies region should be dry during the day. The upper trough will slowly move eastward during the week, which will bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region beginning Monday night and persisting into Saturday. The period with greatest atmospheric moisture content (precipitable water) appears to be Tuesday afternoon into the evening, so this is a window with heavier rainfall potential. Models are indicating that south central MT has the greatest probability of 0.1 inch or more of rainfall Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. At this time the ensemble model solutions are not highlighting any big severe weather outbreaks for the Northern Rockies, but given climatology, strong thunderstorm risk will be better assessed in the short term forecast. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s and lower 80s on Monday, then 60s and 70s Tuesday through Thursday, 60s on Friday, and 70s on Saturday. RMS && .AVIATION... A cold front moving into the region from the west will bring areas of gusty winds and a shift from southerly to northwest winds this evening. Look for 30-40 kt gusts along the western foothills. Southerly gusts to 40 kts near the Dakotas border will finally shift to a lighter northwest wind Sunday morning. Otherwise, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region tonight into early tomorrow. Shower coverage will increase west of KBIL on Sunday, resulting in localized MVFR and occasional mountain obscurations. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058/076 046/080 055/070 048/068 046/070 050/066 049/075 23/T 20/B 36/T 62/W 12/T 33/T 22/T LVM 049/065 039/073 050/064 042/064 042/068 045/066 046/074 37/T 51/B 68/T 73/T 22/T 34/T 32/T HDN 058/078 047/082 054/073 049/069 046/072 050/069 048/076 23/T 20/B 25/T 62/W 12/T 33/T 22/T MLS 063/077 051/080 057/075 050/068 048/071 050/066 049/074 23/T 30/U 13/T 52/W 12/T 23/T 22/T 4BQ 063/079 049/082 056/077 049/069 046/072 049/066 048/072 22/T 10/U 02/T 42/W 22/T 34/T 33/T BHK 065/081 050/077 057/078 049/068 046/071 048/065 046/070 23/T 20/U 11/E 42/W 22/W 23/T 22/T SHR 058/079 046/082 054/077 047/070 045/073 048/068 048/073 12/T 10/B 13/T 52/W 12/T 33/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 ...Updated Aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Loaded up the NAM/WRF temps and dew points heading into this afternoon, which trend with drier dew points and a few locations hitting 100 degrees the west central sections of Kansas. Not much changing needed in the winds this time. A very dry lower and middle troposphere will preclude any reasonable chance for storms. Even this evening as orographic/higher terrain convection develops out of Colorado and moves east, the 700 mb temps around 14 deg C should also contribute to suppressing connection before it reaches the western periphery. As the night goes on, the HRRR has been showing a narrow corridor of convection in the western counties for a few hours centered around 12z but this has been inconsistent between the various convective allowing models. A mild overnight as lows may not get out of the 70s in sections of central Kansas. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Continued hot afternoon temperatures imposed by southwest downslope breezy to windy conditions are forecast each afternoon through Wednesday. There is an indication of a frontal boundary maybe late wednesday or early Thursday (GFS 20km) that would bring a respite to the hot weather and presumably a return to thunderstorm chances given enough moisture. Looking at the ECMWF - no tue airmass change takes place with north winds driving through the entire areas of central and western Kansas until the weekend. So although thunderstorm chances increase from under 15% by mid week, the area is likely to remain largely hot and dry until some point late in the e weekend. That opportunity looks short lives as well as hot southwesterly downslope flow resumes by next Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF cycle. A low level jet will continue through 12z Sun, with 850 mb winds of 45-50 kts, and included low level wind shear in all TAFs through the night. South winds will remain elevated all night, gusting 24-27 kts, with a brief relative minimum in wind intensity around sunrise. After 15z Sun, strong SW winds will again impact aviation operations with gusts of 35-37 kts at all airports. Another round of low level wind shear is expected Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 69 99 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 69 98 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 67 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 69 99 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 P28 68 99 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner
National Weather Service Hastings NE
603 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Today is warm and breezy. Highs are a bit cooler in the far west, but warming up nicely as expected in central, eastern and southern portions of the area. Tonight is expected to be dry with precip potential to our east and west. Lows will be in the 60s for the most part. The main question in the forecast is precipitation potential Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. There is a weak wave moving across the area and with daytime heating, feel that thunderstorm potential is possible to the west of the area...and moving into western and northwestern sections. The GFS/NAM and HRRR show this the most with the GFS and HRRR the most robust for this activity. All of that being said, have kept it to 14s in the POP Forecast for now, but think 20s will be needed in the future to account for scattered thunderstorm chances. Sunday`s highs will be in the 90s areawide with breezy wind conditions. Southerly winds will be gusting to the 35 mph or so during the afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Monday through Wednesday: Hot and breezy conditions will persist through the first half of the week as the upper ridge transitions eastward and the area remains under southwesterly flow. Highs in the 90s will persist with winds gusting into the 30s(mph) through Wednesday Wednesday night - Saturday: A front will move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a cool down and the next chance or precipitation. South central Nebraska/north central Kansas will remain north of the front...keeping the second half of the work week a bit cooler with scattered precipitation/thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Main concern will remain with gusty winds through the period and potential for LLWS tonight. Overall, the wind direction will change very little, from the current southeasterly direction to more southerly. Gusts around 25 MPH will be possible tonight, but even with gusty winds, models remain in good agreement showing the potential for LLWS at both sites, with direction also turning from southeast to south with time. During the daytime hours tomorrow, gusts will be closer to 30 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Billings Wright LONG TERM...Billings Wright AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
805 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Update issued to cancel the Red Flag Warning for today, and have adjusted the winds up a few mph for Sunday. Looks like numbers for tomorrow were a bit too low in comparison to what occurred today. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1239 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 18Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large H5 ridge in place over the pains with the axis of the ridge now centered over eastern CWA extending north to the Canadian border. At the surface warm front extended eastward from surface low across eastern Colorado, running roughly along Interstate 70. To the south of front, critical fire weather conditions were already being observed. Forecast concerns will center around fire weather concerns tomorrow as well as small thunderstorm chances each afternoon. For tonight...Strong capping to north of warm front and very warm/dry conditions to south of it make it very unlikely that any storms will initiate along front. Think any chance for thunderstorms will have to be with storms developing over the mountains and propagating along outflow`s eastward. With very high cloud bases, limited instability and high DCAPE would limit the threats to be strong winds and perhaps dry lightning. Sunday...Warm and dry airmass will overspread the entire area by sunrise with gusty southerly winds and low humidities leading to another period of critical fire weather (please see fire wx section for specifics). Deeply mixed boundary layer and weak instability will bring potential for high based thunderstorms mainly across western CWA where influence of ridge will be be weakest and heating the strongest. Not expecting much precipitation out of these, but could defiantly see gusty winds and perhaps dry lightning which could increase fire threats. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Upper ridge will only slowly move eastward through Wednesday, with hot and mainly dry conditions. Cannot rule out an isolated high based storm during the afternoon and evening, but coverage and low probability of actually getting measurable precipitation will keep pops at 20 or below. Heat and fire weather concerns will be the main story. Expecting high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100. Relative humidity will drop into the teens each afternoon resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Wind speeds on Monday are marginal at best for critical conditions, with the gustier winds in the east and lowest humidity in the west, so will forego a watch on Monday at this time. Tuesday looks better with gusty south winds forecast for the entire area and critical conditions likely. Winds are lighter again on Wednesday. For Thursday through Saturday the ridge will move far enough east to allow a cold front to slip into the area and potentially become stationary. High temperatures will be in the 80s with higher humidity so the fire weather threat will end. Pattern will be favorable for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with a low level upslope regime and falling upper heights associated with an upper low in the northern Rockies, as well as the frontal boundary. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 513 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 VFR skies thru the forecast period for both terminals. Winds for KGLD, S 15-30kts thru 04z Sunday, then 10-15kts. By 15z, SW 20-30kts. LLWS 04z-05z 190@45kts for Flight Level 020. Winds for KMCK, ESE 10-20kts thru 04z Sunday, then SE around 10kts. By 14z SW around 15kts, increasing to around 15-25kts by 16z. LLWS 04z-14z 180@45kts for Flight Level 020. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ252>254. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JRM LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
633 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 347 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level ridge from the Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan and troughing over the eastern CONUS. A well-defined shortwave/swirl sliding southeast into northern WI has brought little more than some high clouds in the very dry airmass over the region. Otherwise, sfc ridging from James Bay into the western Great Lakes has brought mostly sunny skies with few/sct inland cu prevailed with unseasonably cool air. Tonight, another round of cool/cold conditions is expected as PWAT values remain in the very dry 0.20-0.40 inch range. With favorable radiational cooling conditions, temps will drop into the low to mid 30s over interior favored locations central where a Frost Advisory was issued. As the ridge builds slightly to the east, an increase in ssw boundary layer winds over the west will keep temps from dropping off as far over the west. Sunday, with increasing WAA and 850 mb temps climbing to around 7C, expect inland readings to around 70. Wind field will remain light enough to allow lake breezes to develop. Mixing to 4k-5k ft will again drop dewpoints into the lower 30s, resulting in min RH values to around 25 pct. With only light to moderate winds and the abundant rain last week, fire wx concerns should remain limited. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 412 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020 A mostly dry long-term period awaits, but with the current warming trend continuing into the middle of next week. There could be some showers around on Tuesday with a warm front - mainly west - but that looks like a pretty low chance at the moment. The next chance for more significant rain is not until next Thursday when a cold front slowly pushes through the area. There could be some thunderstorms with that front as well but it`s still awfully far out to think about severity, especially when the timing of the frontal passage is still in play. Slightly cooler weather then returns again for the end of next week behind the front. Sunday night, the axis of mid-level ridging will be nudging in from the west. At the surface, strong high pressure will persist in an elongated ridge encompassing the Upper Great Lakes and much of Ontario and Quebec. This ridging will keep things dry with clear skies expected. Southerly gradient flow on the western periphery of low-level ridging may keep the downslope areas along the Lake Superior shoreline slightly warmer overnight with lows in the mid 40s but otherwise lows are expected to fall into the upper 30s to around 40. During the day on Monday, some light scattered showers will try to make it into the far west, but mostly dry up before they reach the area as they run into such strong subsidence from the aforementioned ridging that will be moving only slightly eastward. However that subtle eastward shift in the ridge will be enough to increase the gradient and produce breezy southwest flow that will advect warmer air in. That could mean a return to fire weather conditions Monday, considering it will have been dry for several days in a row by that point. Models show a tight mid-level moisture gradient by Monday afternoon with finally some moisture making it into the west half, but the east half staying very dry aloft. Meanwhile, the stronger winds will be mainly over the west half, and the southerly flow will probably advect slightly cooler Lake Michigan marine layer northward into the eastern U.P., so we may end up seeing the west half being warm and breezy but not terribly dry, and the east half being much drier but not as warm or as breezy, which would limit fire weather potential. Nonetheless, with afternoon RH as low as 20-25% it`s something that bears watching. The warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with GEFS mean 850 mb temps around 18 C both days and as warm as 20 C by Wednesday morning in the deterministic EC. Went with more or less the 75th percentile for high temps, although some of the bias-corrected guidance went pretty crazy with highs on Wednesday so had to then walk that back a bit. Should easily see highs on Tuesday in the 80s (70s right along Lake Michigan given the southerly flow) to around 90 west. Highs Wednesday will be about 5 degrees warmer across the board, with mid to upper 80s over much of the west and central and low 90s likely over the notoriously warm spots of the interior west. As teased above, the only real weather-maker in the long-term period is the cold front that will be slowly approaching from the west by Wednesday night. Given the rex block over the eastern U.S. and that models are almost always too quick to break down such a strong blocking pattern, favored slowing the arrival of POPs Wednesday night and Thursday closer to CONSRaw. Think any precip will hold off until at least the daylight hours on Thursday for most of us. Given the warmth and increasing humidity, should be adequate instability for thunderstorms with the front. At the moment shear looks too weak for any decent storm organization but still plenty of time to watch that. After Thursday, left the NBM POPs in which are usually too high in the extended but in this case probably aren`t too far off given that the front may try to hang up across the Upper Great Lakes through Friday and perhaps even into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 633 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020 VFR conditions will continue thru this fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 347 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2020 Mostly light winds under 20kt are expected over the next couple of days as pres gradient remains relatively weak. However, there will be some locally stronger winds over the far western part of the lake where ne winds will gust as high as 20-25kt toward Duluth again Sun afternoon. During the Mon thru Wed period, high pres will be situated well off to the e with a low pres trof slowly moving toward the Upper Great Lakes. Although winds should remain mostly under 20kt, the pattern is favorable for some stronger winds at times that may gust to 20-30kt at high obs platforms, particularly over the e half of Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Frost Advisory from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ004>006-010-011-013-084. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...RJC AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
832 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... I`ve been keeping an eye on some scattered showers in Kentucky diving south and making a run for the northern counties in our CWA. HRRR was consistent in showing the showers dying off before making it into our area, and it has been proven right. Besides a few light echoes on radar, all that is left is some cloud debris. Look for a dry, pleasant night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some slightly better rain chances will return tomorrow as an upper trough dips out of the Great Lakes into the Midwest. The current forecast looks good and no changes were made. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. Upper low expected to drop down just northeast of the area on Sunday. This may bring a few showers down as well. These showers will be spotty and are most likely to catch CSV. They do not expect to really impact CIGs or VSBYs, thus will keep VFR conditions going through Sunday as well. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......Reagan AVIATION........07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Isolated convection has been confined to our southern counties of southeast MO and far western KY so far this afternoon. However, the instability and moisture gradient extends from southeast MO into southern IL, and over toward the Owensboro area as of 2 PM. Several CAMs indicate isolated convection firing up mid to late afternoon in this corridor and moving southward as it dissipates with loss of daytime heating by 00-01z. Chances are quite low in any one location though. Most of the evening and overnight hours look dry, as we await mid level energy diving southward which is currently over northern Wisconsin. This trough axis pivots down into the mid/upper Ohio Valley on Sunday, with a weak cold front associated with it. Drier low level air will already be in place in our northeastern counties. However, most CAMs suggest a band of showers moving south into the EVV Tri-state region between 12-18z Sunday. Models suggest very little if any instability remaining this far north, so decided to nix thunder mention for now. Feel like the best thunder threat tomorrow will be over our southern and western counties during the afternoon, and that is if any convection ends up forming. Most guidance is not very bullish on any isolated development. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Sunday across the northeast half of the region, where readings look to only top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Looks like mid to upper 80s will still be in place across southeast Missouri though. Most areas east of the Mississippi River look to drop into the 50s for lows Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 The forecast and NBM solution is favored toward a blend/consensus of members, with the upper Low lingering over the Southeast U.S. through the bulk of the long term forecast period. Toward the end of the period, the member consensus evolution of the Low is to dissipate its identity/influence here, and otherwise move it farther south/east and away from the PAH FA, as we transition to more zonal westerlies sweeping across the Mississippi River Valley. This accepted general synoptic evolution means we`ll be in a storm retarding northeast to easterly flow regime during the first half of the week. It will provide dew points in the 50s, and the consensus modeling is such that we`ll be devoid of any triggering mechanisms for parcel vertical motion/growth outside of diurnal instability. Air temps run at or even below seasonal norms, and mostly below convective temps, so the inherited dry forecast the first half of the week looks a safe bet. For the latter half of the week, as the flow continues to veer and southerlies return, we see dew points gradually creep up into the 60s, and air temperatures begin to recover closer to or even begin to exceed seasonal norms, pushing 90s by next weekend. A front approaches from the north, and combined with the higher heat and humidity, as well as diurnal destabilization, we`ll see low chance pops return to the forecast by Days 6-7 (Friday-Saturday). Worthy of mention is the fact that the GFS is the largely discarded solution with regard to the upper Low`s evolution. It is among the farthest north and west of the guidance, lingers the longest, and would result in a little bit stormier pattern for us, including during the first part of the week. We`ll keep an eye on consistency, as if this trend pans out, some pop revision will be necessary. && .AVIATION... Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020 With the 00z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance, attempted to account for diurnal cumulus and convection south of a KCGI, KPAH, KOWB line. Any remaining convection should die out after 00z Sunday. The RAP and 4km NAMNest appears to be sampling the short term forecast well. The timing of the next round of convection impacting the KOWB, KEVV, and KMVN is slightly uncertain, so hinted at passing showers in the 16-17z Sunday time frame. The signal for convection around that time has been consistent, but would like to see another run before committing to categorical mention of precipitation and ceilings for all of the previously mentioned TAF locations. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
814 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 807 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Updated to expire the Red Flag Warning for this evening across the Plains. Humidity values have been rising. Winds are also beginning to subside. However, a few wind gusts are possible in and near showers. Mozley UPDATE Issued at 550 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Updated precipitation chances for this evening based on the latest radar trends and high-res model guidance. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the Mountains, east into the I-25 corridor this evening. High-res model guidance suggests another line of storms moving across the San Luis Valley later this evening, and dissipating over the Eastern Mountains around midnight. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Mid level moisture has increased across the area today, as upper level ridge drifts east and flow aloft strengthens ahead of wrn U.S. upper trough. Low levels remain rather dry, with dewpoints in the 20s/30s at most locations and T/Td spreads of over 50f on the plains, suggesting rainfall will be spotty and light despite moderate storm coverage so far this afternoon. Still a risk of a severe wind gust or two with any stronger storms, especially back over the mountains where instability is slightly better. Storms will continue into the evening, with HRRR suggesting most activity dying before it reaches the far ern tier of counties near the KS border. Sunset should bring a downturn in convection, though models hint at at least isolated showers lingering over much of the high terrain past midnight. Will keep Red Flag Warning in place into the evening for the eastern plains, as strong winds/low RH continue for a few more hours. Upper flow turns more wly on Sun as nrn Rockies wave lifts nwd into Canada, with drier air spreading across much of srn CO. Still some lingering moisture and afternoon tsra over srn mts and portions of the ern plains, though activity looks to be fairly spotty and weak given decreasing moisture. Deep mixing, drier air mass and more wind are expected Sun, and Red Flag conditions will be more widespread across the area, and will retain current warning for Sun afternoon and evening. Hot max temps will continue, with readings approaching 100f over the lower Arkansas Valley. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Sunday night into Wednesday...An upper-level low is anticipated to sit and spin over the Pacific Northwest into the early part of the week before finally moving eastward late in the day Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough associated with this upper-level low is expected to keep us in a southwesterly flow regime, which is anticipated to bring daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms to the mountains. Additionally, the lower elevations should stay unseasonably warm (temperatures running 5-10 degrees F warmer than average) and breezy, causing prolonged critical to near critical fire weather conditions through midweek. Have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening. Fire weather highlights will probably be needed for Tuesday as well, but will wait until we are closer to Tuesday to do so. Highs are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100 across the plains each day, while the high valleys should see highs generally in the 80s. Thursday...The upper-level trough is anticipated to continue propagating eastward into the northern Great Plains, sending a cold front through our region. This cold front is expected to provide some, albeit minor, relief in temperatures. Highs across the plains are expected to be in the low to mid 90s and highs in the high valleys should remain in the 80s. There is also potential for the front to spark some showers and thunderstorms across the plains. With CAPE values potentially approaching 1000 J/kg, and depending on the timing of the frontal passage, a strong to severe storm is possible over the eastern plains. Friday and Saturday...A trailing trough is anticipated to develop behind the aforementioned trough over the Canadian Rockies, then translate across the northern U.S. Rockies. As a result, isolated to scattered showers and storms are anticipated to develop over the mountains around midday each day, then the chances for precipitation spread to the lower elevation, but confidence is low this far out to determine how great those chances will be. For now, have left isolated PoPs in the forecast. Highs stay in the 90s for the plains and 80s for the high valleys each day, with Saturday shaping up to be ever so slightly cooler than Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 311 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2020 Will continue VCTS mention in all tafs into the evening, though with dry low levels, gusty and erratic winds will be the main storm threat. Precip tapers to showers toward sunset, then ends overnight. VFR expected on Sun, with just a slight chance of a weak tsra in the afternoon, with perhaps some convective outflows impacting KCOS and KPUB late in the day. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ220-222- 226>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ220-222-224-226>237. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...CARLBERG AVIATION...PETERSEN