Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/13/20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
119 PM AKDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms will be the main focus over the weekend as building high pressure over the Yukon Territory and Northwest Territories helps facilitate an easterly wave pattern throughout Interior Alaska. The exit of an upper level disturbance will leave the West Coast with warming temperatures and mostly clear skies. && .DISCUSSION... Aloft... More or less stationary high pressure over central Northwest Territories continues to support an Interior ridge and easterly wave pattern throughout the Central and Eastern Interior. A slow moving cutoff low currently sits just north of Noatak and will move to Utqiagvik by Saturday morning before continuing to trek north off the Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior... Thunderstorm activity will be limited west of Tanana this evening by a frontal boundary associated with the upper level low over the NW Arctic. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain more widespread northeast of a line from Shungnak to Noatak this evening and into tonight. Clearing over the Seward Peninsula behind the upper level low and the subsequent westward spreading of the ridge over Interior Alaska will bring warming temperatures and clear skies to much of the West Coast for the weekend. North Slope and Brooks Range... Isolated thunderstorm activity will persist through the evening mainly north of Anaktuvuk Pass and west of Deadhorse driven by instability beneath the upper level low. Clearing through the day on Saturday behind the low will be more pronounced further west but will leave little in the way of low stratus along the coast. Higher chances of precipitation and thunderstorms in the Central Brooks Range on Sunday as a shortwave progresses east. Central and Eastern Interior... Afternoon convection with isolated thunderstorms spread across a wide swath of the Interior will persist through the evening hours. Both the HRRR and NAM models favor an organized line of thunderstorms moving east to west tomorrow afternoon mainly from Dot Lake to Eielson AFB and across the Tanana Flats and the Alaska Range. Given the recent excellent performance of the HRRR, warmer temperatures, and favorable lifted indices, this is something to watch for. Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Saturday, pushing 80 in the Yukon Flats. The rest of the Central and Eastern Interior will see mid to upper 70s through Monday. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday look more favorable for Fairbanks with areas of CAPE is excess of 700 J/kg. Storms will be wet with localized heavy rain and small hail possible. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm temperatures, thunderstorms, and easterly flow will continue to be the pattern for the near future. Thunderstorms will be wet. Lightning activity will be highest in the Eastern and Central Interior today but progress westward and northward with the ridge axis through the weekend. Temperatures in the western interior will warm as the ridge pushes west. RH values will be lowest in the Yukon Flats with values dipping into range of 20%, but expect good overnight RH recovery in most places with values reaching 60-70% or better. && .HYDROLOGY... No major concerns at this time, however rapid rises in small streams are possible today through the weekend if any individual thunderstorm becomes stationary over an area for a significant length of time. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ CHRIEST JUN 20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Forecast concerns in the short term will be shower and thunderstorm chances for the rest of today into Saturday then Sunday night into Monday and into next week along with temperatures. The 12Z MPX sounding showed around 0.65 inches of precipitable water with step 7.3C/km lapse rates from 850mb to just about 700mb with moisture around 700mb. Most recent water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed that surface low pressure was over Quebec and the forecast area is in northwest flow aloft. A ridge at 500mb around 110 degrees west with a trough affecting the western U.S. from 130-140 degrees west. A cluster of storms was noted across western Kansas dropping southeast into Oklahoma. Tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was being drawn northward across Mexico into the western Plains on the west side of the ridge. Morning visible images showed some mixed messages...patchy stratus from central Minnesota toward north central Wisconsin with accas above and a few echoes on the radar above that in the fl100-120 layer. The mid clouds/echoes in the area were due to mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis/vorticity advection. The latest surface map has a weak surface front from southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin with surface high pressure to the north. Tonight through Saturday, the mean 500mb ridge position is forecast to shift eastward with pieces of energy in the northwest flow aloft. The weak shortwaves and moisture with some instability may touch off a few showers with MLCAPE forecast to be around 800 J/kg. The RAP picked up on the echoes this morning and increases the echoes tonight just south of the Twin Cities. Both the RAP/HRRR (most of the CAMs) have some shower activity by 04Z, expanding and lasting through 13 or 14Z...then continuing...but decreasing in coverage through the day. There may be some isolated shower/thunderstorms activity this afternoon. With the subtle/weak forcing within an area of 700mb moisture additional activity is expected to develop. Will maintain the isolated and chance pops mainly southwest of I94. 850mb temperatures from 9-12degrees C lower to 6 to 9 degrees C and gradually warm back up to 12 to 15 degrees C for Sunday and 15 to 18 degrees Monday. As a result of this cooling and easterly flow, look for lows to settle back into the lower 40s for parts of Taylor/Clark/Jackson/Monroe/Juneau/Adams counties. Farther west, reading will slip back into the mid 40s to lower 50s. High Saturday should be a bit cooler and much below normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s. (normals are in the lower 80s). The winds through Saturday look on the light side, then tend to strengthen from the southeast then the south Sunday into early next week. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 The 500mb ridging for Sunday will bring warmer temperatures with highs in the 70s. Even warmer Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The ribbon of deeper moisture with precipitable water around 1.5 inches over the Missouri River Sat/Sun shifts to the Mississippi River Sunday night through Tuesday morning. It appears that we remain uncapped. A shortwave will track northward across Minnesota and scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop farther south into the ARX forecast area. The longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest will push into the Northern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday then flatten out. Summer-like temperatures and humidity return with highs in the 80s and lower 90s along with the chance for thunderstorms with the cold front in the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1035 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 VFR conditions will continue for all areas through the day on Saturday, with rounds of thicker mid level clouds in the 7-12k ft range for both LSE and RST, and even some occasional light showers likely working near the RST terminal later tonight and tomorrow morning, and then again into Saturday evening. Winds will shift easterly for all locations overnight, increasing to 10-15 knots and holding there the remainder of the TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 The Turkey River fell below flood stage overnight, thus the flood warning was canceled. Rivers will remain high through the weekend, thus those enjoying the outdoors/area rivers and lakes should be aware and cautious of the elevated conditions/swifter flows. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Lawrence HYDROLOGY...Zapotocny
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Models today were very similar to yesterday across southwest Kansas with respect to the 700mb to 500mb lapse rates at +8C/KG at 00z Saturday. 0-6km shear will range from 25 to 30 knots. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop after 4 pm along an area of enhanced 0-1km moisture convergence which the RAP has located from around Elkhart to near Cimarron and Garden City. What storms that do develop will move east/southeast through the early evening and dissipate by sunset. Although severe weather is not expected from these storms...a few of the strongest storms will be capable of producing penny to nickel hail and gusty winds. On Saturday 850mb and 700mb 24 hour temperature changes from 00z Saturday to 00z Sunday will range from +1 to 3C which continues to favor highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across southwest Kansas. As temperatures climb into the 90s the relative humidity values will fall back into the teens. The lowest relative humidity values will be located southwest of Dighton to Meade line where relative humidity values as low at 10 to 14 percent will be possible. Afternoon southerly winds of 20 to 25 mph can also be expected given the mean mixed layer winds from 18z Saturday through 00z Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Hot and mainly dry weather will continue from late this weekend through the end of next week. Models remain in good agreement with previous runs in that conditions will be favorable for highs to ranging from the upper 90s to around 100 degrees each day next week. An upper level ridge axis will shift east out of the Northern Plains early next week and extend from Kansas to the Western Great Lakes Region. This will place the West Central High Plains in a southwesterly flow. Several upper level disturbances embedded in this southwesterly flow will cross the West Central High Plains from Sunday night through at least Wednesday which may result in a chance for some late day storms along a nearly stationary surface boundary that is currently forecast to extend from eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska. Any convection that does develop along this boundary will likely stay near this boundary late day and overnight next week. Later shifts will need to monitor where this surface boundary will be located mid week since there will be a chance that this boundary could move east towards the Colorado border. Gusty winds and low afternoon relative humidity values can also be expected across southwest Kansas late this weekend and next week. West of highway 283 the afternoon relative humidity values will be in the teens while further east afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range from 20 to 25 percent. Southerly winds each afternoon next week will range from 15 to 30 mph. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 508 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through Saturday afternoon. Light south-southeast winds will persist through early Saturday morning as a surface low remains anchored in southeast Colorado. Winds are then expected to become more south-southwesterly while increasing to around 20 to 30kt through late Saturday afternoon as the aforementioned surface low deepens, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across western Kansas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Critical Fire Weather Conditions can be expected Saturday afternoon west of a Dighton to Meade line. Gusty south southwest winds at 20 to 25 mph will develop late Saturday morning as 30 to 40 mph winds in the 1000 to 3000ft AGL mixes down to the surface. Afternoon relative humidity values will fall back into the teens by noon and then bottom out in the 10 to 15 percent range between 3 pm and 8 pm. These gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to the potential for extreme burning behavior. A red flag warning has been issued for locations west of a Dighton to Meade line. Open burning should not be attempted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 63 99 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 61 99 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 EHA 61 97 67 96 / 30 0 0 0 LBL 63 98 67 97 / 30 0 0 0 HYS 61 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 P28 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...JJohnson FIRE WEATHER...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
302 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will bring cooler weather through the weekend with a few showers and thunderstorms possible over the Sierra from Fresno County northward this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will develop this afternoon and evening, with windy conditions persisting in the Kern County Mountains and Desert through Saturday night. Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above seasonal values by the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Noticeably less hot today as an upper trough approaches the coast. The cooling is more significant farther north as indicated by the 24hr trends across the San Joaquin Valley. Merced is 14 degrees cooler than yesterday as of 2pm and Bakersfield is down 8 degrees. Satellite imagery shows a few cumulus buildups, mainly from Fresno County northward. There is limited moisture and instability, but the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model continues to paint some precipitation over the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite NP to Kings Canyon NP this evening. Think most activity would be light, but a heavier shower or possibly a thunderstorm could result in isolated higher amounts. The trough is also ramping up onshore surface flow as indicated by the latest surface pressure gradients. At 2pm, the SFO-LAS gradient was up to 10.5 MB, more than doubling the 4.5 MB gradient from this morning. Guidance shows winds increasing later this afternoon and evening. Have issued a Wind Advisory for the San Joaquin Valley and the West Side Hills from 3 pm this afternoon until midnight tonight. Strongest gusts will be over the West Side Hills; gusts up to 35 mph are possible in the SJ Valley. Blowing sand and/or dust could reduce visibility at times. Winds will also pick up through and below the Kern County mountain passes this evening and continue until Saturday night. A Wind Advisory was issued for this area from 6 pm tonight to 5 am Sunday. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible through and just below the passes, especially around Mojave. Temperatures cool further on Saturday with highs falling to around 10 degrees below climatological normals for mid June. The air mass begins to modify on Sunday, but afternoon temperatures will still be a little below normal. By Monday, highs should be back to near or slightly above normal. Weak ridging could push temps to 4-8 degrees above normal later next week. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR with local IFR and mountain obscurations possible in isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra from Fresno County northward through 06Z Saturday. Local MVFR/IFR visibility will be possible in blowing dust or sand across the San Joaquin Valley through 07Z Saturday, and in the Kern County Desert through at least 00Z Sunday. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail over the central California interior for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ195>199. Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ179>189. && $$ public...DCH aviation....DCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
952 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Late afternoon and early evening convection continues to stream southeast this evening from east central Missouri into southern Illinois as of 230z Saturday. High resolution model guidance, especially the RAP, continues to depict isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in 1) a plume of higher theta-e air (with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s) advecting into southeast MO/southern IL/southwest IN; 2) a narrow zone of deeper level moisture, advecting east-southeast in advance of a sheared shortwave extending east into the Ohio Valley, and 3) and impressed surface wave/boundary focusing the moisture and instability in the boundary layer. The combination of these features is generating isolated convection ahead of the surface wave and along the trailing shear zone back toward the MO/IL border. These features should continue to advect/propagate south-southeast through the early morning hours. Coverage may be sparse, but needed to continue some measure of PoP, until the system moves out of the deeper layer moisture and instability overnight. Only minor changes made to the other sensible weather elements for the remainder of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 The northwest flow aloft is getting dirty. Have already added slight chances of showers and thunderstorms to central and western portions of the region for late this afternoon through tonight. Surface obs show lower 60 dewpoints advecting eastward toward the St Louis metro and that could help get something going up there. The models indicate that it will tend to develop southward into our region by early evening, as the low-level moisture plume pushes south. If we get anything at all, not sure if it will be deep convection or just some shallower showers below the mid- level cap. The GFS and the HRRR are developing some convection/QPF mainly over western portions of southeast Missouri tomorrow. Temperatures have trended warmer and are now expected to reach the upper 80s with dewpoints holding in the lower 60s over there. Certainly cannot rule out a few diurnally forced showers or storms in that area, so added a slight chance for the afternoon. Most models have locked onto a sharp disturbance that is expected to drop south into the Tri State by 12Z Sunday and then through west Kentucky Sunday morning. There is little, if any, moisture return ahead of this system, so the 12Z NAM QPF seems to be quite a stretch, especially given the time of day. We have decided to hold off on adding any chance of convection with this impulse for now, but it will definitely need to be watched closely over the next couple of model cycles. There will be a nice surge of surface high pressure with this system which should push through most of the region Sunday. Cannot completely rule out some diurnal convection Sunday afternoon over the Ozark Foothills, if enough moisture can hang on over there. However, we will take a wait and see approach for that possibility too. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 The battle of the upper trof/low to our east and the upper level ridge to our west continues next week. Models the show upper ridge extending from the southern Plains northeast over the Great Lakes at 00z Tuesday, with the upper cutoff low over the southern Appalachians. By mid week to late week, the low will be slowly tracking up the east coast, and the upper ridge will weaken as an upper level trof develops over south central Canada. At the surface, high pressure to our northeast will keep the PAH forecast area in dry northeast to easterly flow. This will keep our dew points in the lower to middle 50s as temperatures moderate back up to near seasonal readings. As the high moves off the coast and a cold front moves into the upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains, winds will become south to southwest across our region by Wednesday and for the rest of the work week. This will help dew points will creep back up into the lower 60s, while daytime highs will climb back into the lower 90s for Thursday and Friday. After dry conditions most of the week, the cold front to our northwest will be sinking slowly southeast, bringing small chances of showers and storms to our far north counties on Friday. With low confidence in timing, kept pops in the slight category for now. && .AVIATION... Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2020 Isolated convection (showers/thunderstorms) will be moving southeast near an impressed surface wave over east central Missouri and southern Illinois this evening. Some of the convective activity may move very close to the KCGI/KPAH TAF sites through 05z (midnight). At this time, left out a mention of vicinity shower/thunderstorm from these sites until the trajectory can be more precisely determined in the high resolution model guidance. Otherwise, once this minor shortwave impulse moves through this evening any VFR mid-cloud cover/ceilings should become unrestricted again, as high pressure attempts to build in the from the west. Visibilities should also remain in the VFR category during the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...Smith
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
903 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2020 .UPDATE... Adjusted PoPs and spread westward along a westward moving outflow boundary and aligns with the HRRR model. Most of the chances however will be in the Big Bend and coastal waters overnight. Begin to taper off pops from west to east later this evening and overnight. Rest of the forecast is on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION [700 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]... Stationary front is stretched across the eastern portion of the CWA this afternoon and will linger through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms have already developed near this boundary and with the seabreeze and will continue to see numerous storms across the eastern third of the CWA through the evening. With these slow moving storms and high rain rates, the main threat through this evening will be heavy rain that may result in localized flooding. While storms will diminish some with the loss of daytime heating, will still continue to see a few showers and thunderstorms overnight. Expect another active day again on Saturday but with the chance of showers and thunderstorms extending westward. Heavy rain and localize flooding will continue to be the main concern for tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the lower 70s, both within a few degrees of normal. .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Sunday]... A stalled front across our region is expected to finally exit to the south and east Tomorrow night as a southward propagating shortwave trough currently across northern Minnesota is expected to push the aforementioned front out of our region. The shortwave trough will also bring a slight reprieve to the area with slightly drier air moving into the region. A few showers and thunderstorms are still possible on Sunday although not as widespread in coverage. The best chances are expected to be along the coastal regions on Sunday as those areas will still have moisture available in the low levels for moderate instability to be present. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, and lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tomorrow night. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Beyond Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to move into the Mid-Atlantic states and become stationary through Next Friday. This is expected to lock a weak surface pressure gradient across our region through this time period. Given the vicinity of the upper level shortwave to our region, there will be some upper level divergence. This upper level support for forcing for ascent may help produce isolated shower and thunderstorm activity through this period; however, drier air in the mid-levels and at the surface will make it difficult for widespread activity to develop. Highs will mainly hover around the low 90s through this period, and lows are expected to cool into the mid 60s through during this time as the drier air makes its way into the area. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms continue across the ABY to TLH to VLD area. Activity should decrease into tonight, although some storms will linger. At this point have mainly advertised SHRA for a few hours with TSRA returning tomorrow afternoon. Lower cigs are expected across VLD tomorrow morning with MVFR restrictions. .MARINE... Winds are expected to remain light and below 15 knots through the weekend. Seas will remain in the 1-2 foot range through the weekend and early part of next week. Shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the weekend, but should decrease in activity starting Monday. .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns over the next several days. .HYDROLOGY... There are currently no active river flood warnings at this time. WPC has currently upgraded our eastern florida Big Bend and south central Georgia zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Friday, and a marginal risk for the same areas on Saturday. With non-existent shear values, thus leading to practically zero storm motions for today and tomorrow, there is the chance for flash flooding across these areas. This is especially the case, since the ground is still saturated from the rainfall that occurred during Cristobal. Overall most guidance has a widespread 2-3 inches expected today, but these totals could be much higher in localized areas where storms train or sit over the same region for long periods of time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 87 69 87 68 / 70 70 20 40 20 Panama City 74 88 72 89 72 / 20 50 20 30 10 Dothan 71 88 67 88 67 / 20 20 0 20 10 Albany 71 88 69 87 68 / 70 20 10 20 10 Valdosta 70 87 68 85 66 / 80 70 20 40 10 Cross City 71 88 69 87 68 / 70 70 30 50 30 Apalachicola 73 85 73 85 72 / 50 40 30 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Scholl NEAR TERM...Fieux SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...Fieux MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Bunker