Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1019 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity levels increasing through Thursday with a risk of showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold approaches. Locally heavy downpours are possible. Cold front slowly progresses eastward Thursday night and off the coast Friday. Continued chances for rain across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island Thursday night, then tapering off into Friday. Near normal temperatures and less muggy for Friday into Saturday. Unsettled Sunday through midweek with lots of clouds and off- and-on showers, with temperatures trending near to slightly cooler than normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1015 PM update... Warm front from the CT valley to near the south coast with NE flow across eastern and NE MA. Areas of dense fog have developed along the south coast and patchy across east coastal MA. Expect vsbys to improve overnight along the east coast as warm front lifts north and winds shift to south. But patchy dense fog will continue along the south coast. Area of showers and sct t-storms moving NE from eastern PA. This activity expected to weaken as it moves east into a less favorable environment with MUCAPES less than 500 J/kg, but a few showers/t-storm possible across western New Eng overnight. Previous discussion... 1024 mb high over the Maritimes has kept a warm front south of New England with dry pleasant weather across SNE today. However along and just ahead of this warm front, lots of low clouds and fog are currently impacting Cape Cod and the Islands. This low level moisture will continue spreading northward and then after 5 pm and especially toward sunset as blyr cools, low clouds and fog should overspread eastern MA including Boston and the southern/coastal RI into Buzzards Bay area. Some uncertainty on exact timing of this but again thinking as peak heating ends and blyr begins to cool especially 00z and thereafter. Given uncertainty in timing have confined Dense Fog advisory to Cape Cod and Islands beginning at 7 pm and continuing until 8 am Thu. Advisory will likely have to be expanded westward to RI coastline but will monitor how low clouds/fog evolves offshore from Long Island to BID to MVY. As warm lift moves across the area tonight expect patchy drizzle and spotty rain to accompany areas of dense fog. Heavier showers with possible thunder may enter western MA/CT after midnight as short wave trough moves across western NY and weakening instability axis enters western New England. With PWATs approaching 2 inches brief heavy downpours could yield localized poor drainage flooding across western MA/CT. Mild and muggy tonight with dew pts rising thru the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday ... Mid level trough moves across southern Ontario and Quebec with associated cold front moving from eastern NY state in the morning to central CT/MA by days end. This frontal scale forcing will combine with PWATs around 2 inches to yield scattered showers with heavy downpours. As previous forecasters have mentioned, instability is marginal given cloud cover Thu with soundings showing a skinny CAPE (less than 1000 j/kg) profile and deep warm cloud depth, suggesting lower prob of lightning and higher prob of warm rain processes. So greater threat of localized flooding Thu than severe wind/hail. Although PWAT plume is somewhat progressive west to east tomorrow minimizing cell training. Nonetheless something will have to watch. Shower activity likely at a minimum across southeast MA given timing/location of front and deeper moisture/instability. Becoming breezy tomorrow as low level southwest jet increases to 40- 45 kt. Model soundings suggest G30 kt/35 mph possible Thu afternoon with highest winds over southeast MA, 20-30 mph elsewhere. Less sunshine tomorrow will keep highs to 75-80 but more humid than today with warm sector over the region, dew pts climbing to 65-70. Thursday night ... Frontal boundary slides eastward with focus for showers and isolated thunder over southeast including coastal RI into Cape Cod and Islands. Thus risk for localized heavy downpours/flooding will be across this region. Meanwhile, elsewhere a drying trend develops with column slowly drying out from NW to SE. Warm and humid conditions continue over eastern CT into RI and southeast MA given FROPA slow to occur. Drier air farther upstream across western-central MA with dew pts falling into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights * Lingering showers Friday AM confined to Cape Cod/Islands, but most areas remaining dry with lower humidity across the interior. * Light showers possible across the interior on Saturday with temperatures near normal for this time of year. * Confidence low late in the weekend into the middle of next week. Could have a period of onshore flow and showers. Temperatures near to below normal. Friday and Saturday... Cyclonic flow in place with a broad scale trough in place over the eastern US while a ridge builds into central portions of the country. Will see a shortwave trough lift from southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec early on Friday northeastward into Quebec/New Brunswick by the evening. At the surface a cold front will be located around Cape Cod and the Island and continue sliding offshore. Another shortwave digs into the Great Lakes region from the Upper Mississippi River Valley late on Friday through Saturday. This slides another cold front through southern New England early on Saturday. Confidence high initially in the forecast as the first shortwave lifts out and the cold front slides offshore on Friday. There still is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE available with PWAT values of roughly 1.5 to 2 in across Cape Cod and the Islands. Have kept showers and thunderstorms mentioned with a threat of heavy downpours through Friday AM. This threat diminishes once the front moves offshore late in the morning into the early afternoon. Rest of southern New England will remain dry and more comfortable with 50 degree dew points moving in as drier air advects in from west. Do have strong westerly flow at 850 and 925 hPa, so have increased high temperatures toward the 75th percentile of guidance as downsloping is anticipated. This results in highs ranging from the low 70s along the coastal plain to the mid 80s across the CT River Valley and Merrimack Valley. Dry and quiet weather continues Friday night into early Saturday. Another cold front slides through, but will be dry. This will bring some cloud cover and shift winds to a NW/N direction. Moderate confidence on the forecast Saturday as the next shortwave slides into the central/eastern Great Lakes. The GFS/GEM bring this feature into the eastern Great Lakes, whereas the ECMWF keeps it more over the central Great Lakes. Have kept a slight chance of precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening due to the proximity of the wave in combination with diurnal heating. Will be cooler as flow becomes onshore. Highs range from the mid 60s along the coastal plain to the 70s across the interior. Saturday Night through Tuesday... Confidence in the forecast lower significantly after Saturday night. Models have large differences with the shortwave that slide into the central Great Lakes/eastern Great Lakes late on Saturday. The ECMWF cuts off this feature and rotates it around the central/eastern Great Lakes before it moves into the Mid Atlantic on Monday/Tuesday. The GFS/GEM are much more progressive with this feature and lift it out of the region early on Monday and build a ridge in behind it. Hard at this point in time to say which is the correct solution, so have kept with the NBM guidance. Does not look like any washouts at this point in time, but have kept chances of showers during this window. Will be more of a rainfall concern if the ECMWF/EPS solution is correct, but hard to pin point where and when the greatest threat is. Temperatures trending near to slightly below normal during this time frame. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Thru 12Z...Moderate confidence Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings with patchy fog across eastern MA, into the south coast. MVFR ceilings across the CT River Valley will lower to IFR late. Still could see an isolated thunderstorm moving into western MA late. The patchy fog will be dense at times across the south coast and across eastern MA. Most confident in dense fog across Cape Cod and the Islands. Should see visibilities improve at BOS once winds shift to the south. Less certain across the south coast with southerly winds persisting overnight. HRRR guidance may be a bit too overdone with the fog, so mixed the previous forecast with the latest GLAMP. Thursday... Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs with IFR/LIFR Cape Cod and southeast MA. Scattered showers/t-storms moving into the region from west to east. Locally heavy downpours possible. S/SW gusts to 25-30 kt developing across eastern MA/RI. Thursday night ... Focus for showers with isolated thunder shifts to the south coast along with IFR/LIFR conditions. Conditions trending to MVFR/VFR elsewhere along with drying trend and winds trending WNW with frontal passage. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends with low confidence on exact timing of improving from 1/4 SM visibility. KBDL Terminal...High confidence Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night through Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Tonight ... Warm front approaches from the south with areas of dense fog overspread the MA/RI waters. Patchy drizzle will develop overnight. SE winds will become south overnight. Thu... SSW winds increase 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible near shore especially along Plymouth county coastline. Vsby reduced in morning fog and drizzle. Thu night ... SW winds diminish but scattered showers with embedded thunder possible. Heavy downpours likely. Fog will reduce vsby. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ020-021. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ022>024. RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for RIZ003>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ230>234-236-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235- 237-250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera SHORT TERM...Nocera LONG TERM...BL AVIATION...Nocera/BL MARINE...Nocera/BL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
511 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 A return to near seasonal temperatures this afternoon as departed low pressure system digs into the central midwest as an overall ridging pattern sets up across the region. Some mid level vorticity coupled with a low amplitude shortwave may create some elevated showers this afternoon and early evening. Given dewpoint depressions and limited convective energy, current thought is more of virga with some light rain or drizzle. Trended forecast for the short-term period closer to the NAM Model Family including the HRRR and NAMNEST. Ridging pattern Thursday through Friday is a bit of dual side record of the same song as the main axis lifts overhead the region. Temperatures will be warmer from its predecessor with 700 mb temperatures in the 10-13 Celsius range. Return to 90s over the NE High Plains Friday. Moisture values aloft remain dry enough to mitigate any convection and precipitation opportunity. Lows overnight will trend back to seasonal normals taking us out of the preceding near freezing temperature as our seasonal average ends of freeze dates especially out west come to pass. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Relatively quiet weather expected for the long range forecast, with an upper level ridge axis remaining dominant over the Great Plains into early next week. All models are in agreement with this overall pattern with southwest flow aloft and above average temperatures expected. The only minor concern is the potential for thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with some strong thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Models indicate a strong upper level low slowly moving eastward across the Pacific northwest coastline on Saturday, and moving inland later in the weekend while weakening. Shortwave energy out ahead of the main low may impact southeast Wyoming as early as Friday evening, with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and Sunday. Coverage looks isolated to widely scattered at this time due to relatively low PW`s and drier air across the region. However, the low level jet becomes active across the high plains this weekend, which may result in higher PW`s across western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming. Kept POP between 20 to 30 percent for most of the eastern plains. Once the Pacific energy lifts northeast, zone flow is expected early next week with weak southwest flow due to a building upper level high near the four corners region. This pattern typically results in dry conditions with a minimal chance for thunderstorms due to upper level subsidence. High temperatures will continue to trend warmer, with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s along/east of I-25 and readings in the 70s to low 80s west of I-25 this weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 VFR expected at all terminals through the period. Some cigs around 10kft this evening with even a few sprinkles over se Wy before clearing by mid-evening. Brief gusty winds possible as well around any light early this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 Fire weather concerns remain slightly elevated over the course of this forecast period. Drying and warming trend continues over the next several days as some brief chances of showers and thunderstorms return Saturday and Sunday. Some area min RHs will drop into the low teens with winds nearing 25 knots. Area of most concern will be west of the Laramie Range in northern Albany and Carbon Counties. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...WM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1138 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .AVIATION... Secondary cold front is currently pushing across portions of western Lower Michigan. Shallow cold air advection behind this feature is leading to mixed PBL instability and drizzle. Given the number of observations of DZ upstream, did introduce at TAF sites. Forecast soundings are favorable for well mixed west southwest winds for much of hte overnight. Stratocumulus or stratus will persist through daybreak, then quickly give way to SKC Thursday. For DTW...MVFR drizzle developing during the overnight with gusts to 30 knots possible. SKC developing by mid morning. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight. * Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded tonight and Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 UPDATE... Respectable severe weather episode coming to a conclusion. Outflow released from the main line a bit early as convection seemed unbalanced from a shear perspective once it filled in. Thus, as shear ramped up this evening, outflow took an substantial edge off the resident instability. Isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter- sized hail remain possible and will continue to cancel the watch from west to east as warranted. Some boundary layer recovery noted in the wake of exiting convection with temps in the mid/upper 70s with upper 60s dewpoints noted over central Lower. Won`t be sufficient to support an organized severe threat along the encroaching cold front, but should be adequate to support a few stronger gusts of 40 or possibly 50 mph as the last round of low-topped showers & t-storms lifts through the area through about 02z this evening. Cold advection in the wake of the front will bring well-mixed conditions through tonight as H85 temperatures fall into the low single digits. Decent isentropic ascent by summer standards, centered on the 290k surface, will favor occasional gusts in excess of 30 kts. Gusty westerlies persist through Thursday with highs in the 70s and much lower dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 DISCUSSION... Numerous reports of wind damage, some significant, noted with the lead convection along the deeper moisture lifting from Indiana into central Michigan early this afternoon. Among other reports, there was an impressive sustained (2-min avg) wind of 54 mph at Saginaw Bay Lighthouse, though the gust apparently succumbed to automated QC. Confidence is high that a widespread damaging/significant severe thunderstorm episode is imminent for the remainder of the forecast area, including Metro Detroit. Bulk shear with severe convection thus far today has averaged a respectable 35-40+ kts per RAP analyses. However, as noted in the morning update, momentum fields can now be expected to ramp up considerably as height falls increase and dynamic forcing rapidly intensifies from south to north during the next several hours. A key element to the rapidly evolving environment that cannot be understated is the shedding of existing anvil debris to the north-northwest. This has allowed uninhibited destabilization to occur over the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest RAP analysis indicates a broadening corridor of 2200-2500 j/kg MLCAPE over the CWA with at least another 1-2 hours of potential quality destabilization remaining. Meteorology remains largely unchanged - ever increasing bulk shear of 50+ kts (especially eastern zones/Detroit area) will support some potential for supercell modes. Given the high degree of instability, hail of the 1 to 2 inch variety certainly possible but greater any greater potential will be limited by rather pedestrian lapse rates on the order of 6-7C/Km and the warm overall thermal profile. Extremely limited availability of streamwise vorticity given deep/veered SSW flow regime suggests the greatest tornado threat, if any, will lie with bottom-up type processes unless an updraft can grab an outflow and and use that as a means to deviate. The greatest threat by far will be straight line winds of 70 mph, locally higher, and the dominant convective mode will be individual downdraft modulated clusters or bows. The potential magnitude of wind will increase with both time and eastward extent. Finally, PWATs around 2 inches will support torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. The progressive nature of overall convective line will prevent widespread flooding impacts, though some training in the Saginaw Valley has reportedly resulted in flooding on I-75 where dual pol indicates 1 to 1.5" has fallen. Similar urban and small stream impacts should be expected elsewhere. Previous...Broad upper level trough on Thursday with sharper trough axis diving south through the Great Lakes on Friday, delivering a good shot of cold air to start the weekend, as 850 mb temps bottom out around zero over Lower Michigan, Per 00z Euro. The cold front coming through Friday looks moisture starved and LI`s look to stay just positive. Nonetheless, would not be surprised if shower activity has better coverage than outgoing forecast (slight chance) Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The forecast for the weekend and early next week will hinge on where cutoff 500 MB low center develops, as spokes of energy and diurnal instability will provide for periodic chances of showers. However, the GFS and Canadian solutions are much farther east than the Euro solution and suggest dry conditions and seasonably warm conditions, which looks to be the direction of the forecast for now. MARINE... Severe thunderstorms containing hail of 1 to locally 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 70 mph (locally higher) will affect the nearshore waters of Lake Huron and the lower waters of Lakes St. Clair and Erie during the remainder of the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect accordingly. The gale warning has been cancelled as the background wind field and overlake instability remains largely insufficient to generate gusts to gales. Gusty southwest flow becomes westerly behind the cold front on Thursday. Elevated offshore wind warrant small craft advisory with some elevated sig waves of 3 to 4 feet likely near the tip of the Thumb by midday Thurs. High pressure slowly builds in on Friday with flow gradually becoming northwesterly. This will maintain favorable boating conditions into the beginning of next week. HYDROLOGY... Tropical moisture resulting in torrential downpours/efficient rainfall production with some urban flooding reported in the Saginaw area. Despite the overall progressive nature of the convective line, individual convective elements are moving in a NE direction which has resulted in some degree of training. Therefore, urban and small stream flooding should be expected elsewhere as this airmass will easily produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short time. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ063-070. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-422. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ441>443. Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....CB UPDATE.......JVC DISCUSSION...JVC MARINE.......JVC HYDROLOGY....JVC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
619 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions through the forecast period. Smoke from area fires may affect KTCS tonight through 6Z, but the bulk of the smoke should stay aloft, keeping visibility at P6SM. S/SE wind at KTCS 10G20KTS through 2-3Z. For KELP, KDMN, and KLRU E/SE wind at less than 10 knots, with an occasional gust to 15 knots after 6Z due to low level moisture advecting into the region. SE`LY winds tomorrow picks up to 10G20KTS all terminals after 18Z. Thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z tomorrow, however have left a mention out of the TAF due to low confidence on placement/timing. && .PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Winds will shift to the southeast this evening across the region, with more humid air filtering in during the overnight hours. The increase in moisture will lead to scattered thunderstorms on thursday, both in the lowlands and the mountains, with some strong wind gusts possible. Drier air will work into areas east of the Rio Grande Friday and through the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected each day in far southwestern New Mexico. Near and east of the Rio Grande it will remain dry, with seasonal temperatures. The forecast becomes less certain early next week, with warmer conditions expected, and a slight chance for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday... Moisture advects into the region tonight via southeasterly winds thanks to the circulation around a developing high pressure system to our east. Some mildly breezy winds may develop as this moisture surges into the Borderland, but nothing out of the ordinary in terms of speeds. Low temperatures will be mild compared to the last few nights. The aforementioned moisture will anchor over the region on Thursday and as daytime heating and terrain features interact with this lower level energy, so to speak, thunderstorms should develop by the afternoon hours. Almost classic inverted V type profiles, ~40-45 degree dewpt dep spreads, steep low to mid level lapse rates, and sufficient CAPE will result in a mainly strong, gusty wind threat with the strongest storms. Hi-res models continue to show thunderstorm activity blossoming by the early to mid afternoon hours with much of the region under the gun (best threat approx from Deming to El Paso and points northeast). Would not be surprised to see a few severe to near severe wind gusts given the setup and forecast atmospheric soundings. High temperatures on Thursday may be tempered a bit by developing cumulus clouds and the associated shower and storm threat. The fire north of Silver City in the Gila continues to produce smoke which is drifting north. Visibility issues should mainly confide to north of Silver City and surrounding locations across portions of the Gila Wilderness. HRRR is hinting at a bit of smoke approaching western Sierra county and perhaps elevated smoke pushing farther east than that tonight. This will be monitored through the overnight hours. The chance for isolated thunderstorms and dry lightning will exist across the Gila on Thursday. 35-DeLizio && .LONG TERM... Thunderstorms will diminish in coverage Thursday night, but a few may linger past midnight as models suggest several weak vortmaxes moving up from the southwest through the evening hours. Southeasterly low level flow will persist Friday and through the weekend, though some drier, continental air will work into areas near and east of the Rio Grande. Meanwhile, upper level ridge axis will extend from central Chihuahua, over far west Texas and into the Texas Panhandle. In addition to the lower surface dewpoints, subsidence and warmer air aloft will suppress any convection that attempts to form over eastern parts of the CWA. Instead, thunderstorms will mainly be focused over the Gila Region and Bootheel, and nearby lowland areas in far SW New Mexico. Gusty winds will be the main non-fire weather-related threat, possibly leading to blowing dust around Lordsburg Playa. Temperatures through the weekend will be more or less near normal, in the mid to upper-90s across the lowlands. Heading into Monday, the forecast becomes a little less certain as the GFS and the majority of its ensemble members, suggest the upper ridge will begin to weaken and shift east in response to troughing over the west coast, while the ECMWF builds the subtropical ridge right over New Mexico. For Monday, this means we could either see scattered thunderstorms area-wide with mild temperatures, or hot and dry with a few isolated thunderstorms in SW New Mexico again. For now, went with NBM PoPs and a slight warm-up in temperatures, hedging towards a less-amplified version of the GFS with the ridge staying centered to our south, rather than overhead. Unfortunately, this sort of pattern could bring breezy southwest winds back into the picture. && .FIRE WEATHER... Smoke continues to drift north from the Tadpole and Good/Turkey fires as southerly winds continue over the region. Winds remain southerly, veering between SSE and perhaps briefly SSW across the Gila tonight, continuing as S`ly on Thurs. Low level smoke should remain confide to portions of the Gila but elevated smoke may drift into portions of Sierra county tonight. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area Thursday with dry lightning possible in the Gila. Any storms that do develop have the potential to produce strong and erratic outflow winds. An isolated shower and thunderstorm threat will unfortunately remain across the continental divide and into portions of the Gila through the weekend and perhaps lingering into early next week. The constant storm threat does mean moisture will be in place and hence min RH`s rise to near 20% across area mountains (including Gila) and teens elsewhere. Temperatures remain right around average through early next week and vent rates will be mainly Very Good to Excellent through the weekend. 35-DeLizio && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 93 71 96 / 0 30 30 0 Sierra Blanca 63 90 63 91 / 0 20 20 0 Las Cruces 65 91 65 93 / 0 30 30 0 Alamogordo 62 92 64 95 / 0 30 30 0 Cloudcroft 45 71 49 70 / 0 40 30 20 Truth or Consequences 63 92 64 92 / 0 40 40 20 Silver City 58 87 61 88 / 0 30 30 20 Deming 59 95 62 96 / 0 20 20 0 Lordsburg 63 95 65 96 / 0 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 72 94 72 97 / 0 30 30 0 Dell City 61 95 63 95 / 0 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 67 96 68 99 / 0 20 30 0 Loma Linda 65 89 67 90 / 0 30 30 0 Fabens 69 95 70 98 / 0 30 30 0 Santa Teresa 66 92 66 96 / 0 30 30 0 White Sands HQ 69 93 70 94 / 0 30 30 0 Jornada Range 54 93 64 93 / 0 30 40 0 Hatch 57 93 63 94 / 0 30 40 0 Columbus 64 96 65 97 / 0 30 20 0 Orogrande 65 93 65 94 / 0 30 30 0 Mayhill 48 82 52 82 / 0 40 30 10 Mescalero 47 81 52 81 / 0 40 40 20 Timberon 45 80 51 79 / 0 40 30 0 Winston 46 86 51 86 / 0 40 40 30 Hillsboro 55 92 58 92 / 0 30 40 20 Spaceport 54 92 60 92 / 0 40 40 0 Lake Roberts 49 87 54 88 / 0 30 30 30 Hurley 56 88 58 91 / 0 30 30 20 Cliff 47 94 55 96 / 0 30 20 10 Mule Creek 46 90 61 93 / 0 30 20 0 Faywood 57 90 60 91 / 0 30 30 20 Animas 59 97 63 99 / 0 20 10 0 Hachita 58 95 60 96 / 0 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 61 95 62 98 / 0 20 10 10 Cloverdale 59 91 62 93 / 0 20 10 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1008 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing onshore flow will result in areas of low clouds, fog, and drizzle developing tonight. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms before it dries out from west to east Thursday night. A drier and eventually cooler airmass gradually works in behind the front heading into the weekend although showers cannot be ruled out as upper level low pressure meanders nearby. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 10PM UPDATE... Added drizzle to the forecast for the coastal plain tonight as we have received some reports of this. ASOS sites not picking this up, but it makes sense given the situation. 8PM UPDATE... Made a few more adjustments to precipitation chances overnight. Showers continue to fall apart as they track in from the west, but will still be producing a few sprinkles mainly over southern areas in the next few hours. Onshore flow brings low clouds and potential for fog to the coast through the night. Cannot rule out some drizzle. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough arriving from the southwest may bring a round of showers through New Hampshire by morning. 5PM UPDATE... Have updated the forecast primarily to increase rain chances in west central New Hampshire where some remnant showers are tracking in from southern Vermont. Cannot rule out a few lightning strikes, but intensity should be on the decrease as it moves into an area with increasingly less instability. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... The main forecast issue for tonight will be areas of drizzle and fog spreading north through the Gulf of Maine and into portions of northern New England. Afternoon satellite imagery continues to show low clouds expanding north through the Gulf of Maine and into the southwest coast of Maine and Seacoast of New Hampshire by around 00Z. The advection of this moisture is supported by sounding forecasts and the latest HRRR as well. This moisture continues to expand inland overnight, reaching all but far northern and western areas by morning. In addition to this moisture, a few light rain showers may expand of the Gulf as well. Also, convection over portions of interior New England will likely weaken as it reaches New Hampshire by this evening. Overnight lows will remain in the 50s to the mild lower 60s with all of the moisture in place. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A gusty southerly gradient will continue on Thursday, allowing for plenty of moisture advection ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours, despite the limited CAPE values. With the strong wind fields in place, both at the surface and aloft, a few of the storms may contain strong gusty winds. SPC has most of western Maine and New Hampshire embedded in a marginal risk for the day. Prior to the scattered thunderstorms, it may take several hours during the morning for the areas of drizzle and fog to mix out/burn off. The gusty onshore winds and wave action on Thursday does increase our rip risk. For now, have mentioned the possibility of high rip risk in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Warmest readings during the day will be over western New Hampshire, where temperatures may approach 80 degrees This will be in contrast to portion of Maine which will only reach the 60s due to the gusty winds coming in off the cold Atlantic waters. Scattered showers end Thursday night. Winds will veer to the southwest. This will allow for much of the low level moisture to exit the region. Hence, fog should be more limited than tonight`s low level moisture. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday our area will find itself in a dry post-frontal air mass although a secondary cold front will likely pass during the afternoon with a period of bkn clouds and perhaps a few showers in the mountains. Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend but upper level low pressure will also be present. Therefore, it won`t be picture perfect - may be a scenario with diurnal stratocu and showers, especially Sunday. The upper low should lose it`s grip on the region early next week and be replaced by increasing deep layer ridging which could result in a return to summer heat midweek. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through Thursday Night/... Long Term...VFR returns for Friday and Saturday with variable winds as another wave crosses. Some MVFR possible in showers in the mountains Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Thursday Night/...An increasing and well aligned south to southeasterly gradient will allow for winds to exceed SCA thresholds tonight. Gusty winds will continue over the waters Thursday and into Thursday evening as well. Areas of drizzle and fog expected over the waters tonight into Thursday. It is possible the fog may become quite dense in some areas. Long Term...Seas diminish to below 5 ft behind a crossing cold front by Friday morning with winds switching offshore. Seas and winds remain below SCA thresholds through the start of next week with broad high pressure crossing to the north into the maritimes. This sets up a cooler, onshore/easterly flow over the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Ekster
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1133 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1133 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 Original convection has shifted east of the area, but additional showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped over the far eastern portion of the state ahead of the cold front moving through. Have maintained a slight chance of precip ahead of the front for a couple of hours yet. Clearing is occuring behind the front, but low clouds upstream will try to progress southeast and fill in again overnight. UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 Cleared counties from svr tstm watch 278 west of the convective line. Tightened up the POP gradient on the western edge of the precip, but the overall forecast modifications were minimal. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 358 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 A cold front is analyzed over central Kentucky this afternoon. Gusty southerly winds continue ahead of this feature. In addition, temperatures near 90, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s has led to nearly 2500J/kg of MLCAPE across the area. Showers and a few storms are already developing just ahead of this boundary across central Kentucky, with a few others showers and storms developing on the terrain near the Tennessee and Virginia border. DCAPE values continue to range in the 1000-1200J/kg suggesting a strong potential for downburst winds with any more organized storms that develop. Given our effective shear has been increasing to between 35 and 40 knots, there is reasonable amount of confidence storms will continue to organize upstream as they begin to track east through the area this evening. Freezing levels remain quite high suggesting the large hail threat would be fairly limited. However, some smaller hail may be possible with the strongest storms. Tornado potential does not look as good early on, but RAP 0-1 SRH values increase to between 100-150 by 00z, suggesting the tornado potential could increase as we head into the later evening hours. We will continue to watch these trends through the evening. The cold front will push on through by late evening or overnight, with cooler and less humid air surging into the area behind the front. A difficult forecast for late tonight, as any rainfall combined with slower dry advection, could yield a period of fog (perhaps dense) for a period late tonight. However, without knowing how much rain or where the rain falls, hard to have much confidence with fog at this time. It does appear possible some lower clouds could also move in late which would limit the fog threat. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday with any clouds eroding through the day. Temperatures will be cooler, generally around 80. With high pressure continuing to build in Thursday night, a cooler night is anticipated with lows well into the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 419 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 A trough axis will be intact across the eastern half of the U.S. to start the period Friday. This trough will remain blocked and in place throughout much of the extended period, strengthening and developing an upper level low by the weekend. The ECMWF will keep the upper level low in place across the region through the end of the extended period, while the GFS will shift eastward bringing upper level ridging into the period to start the new work week. This trough will actually bring more northern stream air into the region, so high temperatures will not be quite as warm as has been in recent days, generally upper 70s and low 80s, warming into the low to mid 80s by the very end of the period. Despite the trough, at the surface, high pressure will be in control from Thursday through Saturday, with generally dry weather on tap. A week frontal boundary will drop south into the state during the day Sunday, and may bring some isolated and scattered precip to the region. There is quite a bit of disparity at this point in the models, though both the GFS and ECMWF have gone more dry for Monday. The NBM is still going with some scattered precip in the far east, but given the back and forth in the models, will stick with that at this time. The NBM seems to be bridging the gap between the two models for the remainder of the extended as the ECWMF brings the upper level low into the Ohio Valley, and the GFS has the upper level wave pushing into New England. Given how far out in the forecast period we are, just kept with the NBM at this time. If the ECMWF solution is correct, more rain chances are on tap for at least the far eastern portion of the state through the end of the extended forecast period. If the GFS is correct, however, we will remain nearly dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 A broken line of thunderstorms was bisecting the JKL forecast area north/south at the start of the period, bringing gusty winds and localized IFR or worse conditions. The line will move east and exit the state by around 03Z. Following this, VFR conditions are forecast through most of the night. Toward dawn, low clouds are expected to increase, and could bring MVFR conditions. However, confidence in the extent of MVFR conditions is not very high. The most likely place to see it is in southeast KY, and at this point the TAF sites are not forecast to descend back below VFR. Whatever transpire, VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide by Thursday afternoon. After this evening, winds will generally be less than 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...KAS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
934 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will remain in control of our weather through tonight. A slow moving cold front approaches the area Thursday and then stall over the area this weekend. Unsettled weather likely continues into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 920 PM Wednesday...Dry weather expected overnight with PC skies. Lows will drop only to the low- to- mid 70s and remain muggy with dew points in the upper- 60s and low- 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 930 PM Wednesday...A slow-moving cold front will inch closer to our CWA, though it will not cross our area tomorrow. Srly flow ahead of the front will ramp up during the day with winds gusting to 20 kts again. A few sct to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in the aftn and stay contained to our westernmost counties. PWAT values expected to exceed 2 inches, so heavy downpours are likely within storms. Latest HRRR shows CAPE values along the western CWA boundary right around 1000 J/kg with little to no shear. Marginal risk for severe remains appropriate with the main threat being heavy downpours and gusty winds within stronger thunderstorms. Highs in the mid- 80s with dewpoints around a muggy 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Wed...Confidence is increasing for a rather extended period of unsettled weather for Eastern NC, into early next week. A slow moving cold front will push into the area Thursday night and then stall over the area through the weekend. Slightly improving conditions are possible early next week as the boundary dissolves and precipitation becomes more scattered. Thursday night through Saturday...A slow moving cold front will approach the coast and then stall over the coastal plain on Friday as upper flow parallels the front thanks to the persistent upper troughing. By early Friday morning, more widespread precip shifts overhead, which will then continue through the day. The axis of heaviest and most widespread showers and thunderstorms then shifts a bit further east on Saturday...over coastal NC. High PWATs 1.75-2.25" during this period will bring the potential for heavy rain, and the slow moving nature of the front will lead to the possibility of training cells. Thus, there is an increasing flood threat, especially given the recent wet weather over the last month or so (many areas in Eastern NC have seen 200-300% of normal rainfall). Temperatures for this period will be below normal with considerable cloudiness expected. Sunday through Tuesday...As the front breaks down Sunday, upper troughing will linger over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the period as an omega block sets up over the country. A cut off low is expected to develop and sit over the southern Appalachians which will keep unsettled conditions over the area through early next week, though the focus for precip will likely shift to central NC as an inverted trough forms. Continued below average temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through 18Z Thu/... As of 705 PM Wednesday...A stubborn batch of low-level clouds over the western TAF sites can be seen on satellite slowly eroding. Ceilings at the moment remain at MVFR, but will return to VFR once those low-level clouds break within the next hour or so. A few iso shra/tsra is still possible this evening, though POPs are greatly diminishing from this point. Otherwise, VFR conditions and dry weather are expected for all TAF sites overnight. Similar to this morning, models show MVFR ceilings developing shortly after sunrise Thu AM. Srly winds will ramp up as well with gusts 15 to 20 kts. Sct tsra may develop close to the western TAF sites by 18Z, so have put a VCTS for PGV. Precip will remain west through the aftn. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday night through the weekend as a slow moving cold front moves over the area and then stalls. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Thu/... As of 230 PM Wednesday...Gusty S winds will cont along the coast well into tonight between high pres offshore and deep low pres lifting N of Great Lakes. Went closer to higher res mdls and have added Albemarle Sound/Alligator River to the SCA as expect at least gusts to 25 kts all but wrn rivers thru the evening. Winds will diminish slowly later tonight and Thu with speeds remaining mainly below 25 kts so will cont with SCA ending prior to daybreak...however conditions will at times be close to SCA into Thu with some gusts aoa 20 kt. Seas thru period mainly 3 to 5 ft with some 6 footers poss at times thru later tonight outer central/srn wtrs. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected after Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves overhead and stalls. Winds subside to S 10-15 kts on Friday and then SSE at 5-10 kts Saturday and Sunday. Seas come down as well, becoming 2-3 ft Friday through Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-150- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...ML SHORT TERM...ML LONG TERM...SGK/MS AVIATION...SGK/ML MARINE...RF/SGK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .DISCUSSION... Current-Tonight...Diurnal convective activity over land is winding down, with some largely debris type rainfall expected to continue over the next hour or so. Radar, and to some degree short range guid from HRRR suggests some potential for some Atlantic based showers to continue well into the overnight period. Some of this activity will have the potential to reach the coastal areas from around the Cape southward. Will maintain a less than 20 PoP for coastal areas overnight in grids. Expect lows in the L-M70s for most areas (U70s in a few spots). && .AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailing over the next 24 hours outside of convection. Kept VCSH through 01Z for KISM. Tomorrow, SE flow through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Added VCTS starting at 20Z for the interior sites and VCSH for coastal sites. && .MARINE...Tonight...High pressure in place providing a weak pressure gradient and thus favorable conditions across the local waters. Generally SERLY winds overnight 5-10 kts. Only ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower/storm chances for the next 24 hours. Seas building to 2-3 ft tonight due to the beginnings of more pronounced SE flow. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ JP/JC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
754 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 434 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough through the central CONUS. A vigrous upstream shortwave trough over northern IL supported an area of showers through southern WI with TS over se WI in an area where MLCAPE values were above 1000 J/Kg. Additional sct diurnal -shra from northeast Mn into nw WI were associated with mid level fgen ahead of the mid level trough axis. Tonight, expect the shra over WI supported by moderate to strong 700- 300 qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv to expand to the northeast this evening affecting mainly the southeast half of Upper Michigan. Some TS may also be possible over the far south this evening where MLCAPE values to near 500 J/Kg are forecast. Otherwise, sct/isold -shra will also develop over the west early this evening as the area of fgen moves through before daytime heating subsides. The pcpn should move out of the east overnight as cooler air prevails over the area with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Thursday, deep cyclonic wnw flow will prevail as the mid level low settles near northeastern Lake Superior. Mixing depths to around 4k- 5k ft will help mix a portion of the stronger 850 mb winds resulting in gusts to around 25-30 knots over much of the area as temps climb into the upper 60s to around 70 inland. A band of 850-700 mb fgen will help support sct -shra near the WI border by late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 436 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 An amplified pattern is expected over N America thru at least the upcoming weekend. Trof currently over the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley will move across the Great Lakes region thru Fri. Over the weekend, pattern will again become quite amplified with a fairly deep trof moving into the western U.S. forcing an amplified central N America ridge while the Great Lakes trof drifts toward the eastern U.S. Looks like the eastern trof may close off a mid-level low somewhere btwn the Lower Great Lakes and the central Appalachians early next week as the upstream ridge becomes reoriented sw to ne from the central Plains to se Canada. Main question during the first half of next week is whether the ridging holds on over the northern Great Lakes per ECMWF or whether the ridge flattens/deamplifies sufficiently per GFS for the westerlies to settle s and allow shortwaves to affect the area. For Upper MI, these changes in the large scale pattern will result in cooler weather thru the end of the week, probably well blo normal for at least one day (Fri), as the trof moves across the Great Lakes region. Warmth will then return early next week, with a trend to above normal, as the upstream ridge drifts across the Great Lakes and sw flow takes hold again. As for pcpn, the evolving pattern will be a drier one for Upper MI. May see some -shra/sprinkles Thu night, but otherwise, dry weather will follow thru the weekend under influence of Canadian high pres. There will probably be a risk of shra/tsra at some point during the first half of next week, depending on how quickly the ridge over the area flattens. Beginning Thu night/Fri...there may be some isold -shra or sprinkles Thu evening toward the MI/WI border vcnty of southward moving sfc trof. A few -shra will also be possible over the ne fcst during the evening in association with shortwave brushing eastern Lake Superior. Otherwise, cool conditions will be the rule Thu night/Fri as 850mb temps fall to roughly 0 to 3C. Lows Thu night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Fri will be the coolest day of the period. Will be especially cool along Lake Superior, especially e of Marquette under long fetch nw winds. Lakeside locations will not get out of the 40s. In the interior, highs will range up only thru the 50s and lower 60s. The weekend will be dry with probably mostly clear skies. The GFS looks way too aggressive in already bringing -shra into far western Upper MI Sat night/Sun morning as it is least pronounced with the mid-level ridge approaching the western Great Lakes. ECMWF/UKMET/CMC all have a much sharper ridge, and fcst will favor that idea, resulting dry weather thru the weekend. Temps will moderate with readings back close to normal for Sun. There will be a frost risk in the interior Fri night and Sat night, but especially Fri night. On Fri night, precipitable water will be down blo 50pct of normal to enhance raditional cooling. With much of the guidance having min temps down to the mid 30s in the interior, including traditional cold spots down to around freezing, may be looking at a fairly widespread frost across the interior Fri night. Frost potential returns Sat night, but coldest conditions may end up over the interior e half. Warming will continue Mon thru Wed with high temps mostly mid 70s to lwr 80s for Tue/Wed. Could be at least several degrees warmer one of those days depending on timing of shortwaves which would pull thermal ridging into the area. The ridge over the Upper Lakes will probably flatten sufficiently for shortwaves tracking thru the westerlies to have some impact on the weather here. Although the ECMWF continues to offer a drier solution, it is trending toward more suppression of the ridge though not nearly to the GFS idea. In any event, there is no signal for an organized pcpn event yet Mon thru Wed. Any pcpn would probably be isold to sct. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 753 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 This evening, another area of developing low pressure is expected to pass to the southeast of Upper Michigan and will bring another round of showers, mainly over the southeast half of Upper Michigan. VFR conditions will continue for KIWD as skies remain CLR until dawn. KSAW should reach VFR conditions in the next few hours as the showers move out of the area, while KCMX will stay in MVFR until dawn. LLWS is also expected at each of the TAF sites tonight, based off of the model soundings from the NAM3km model. The LLWS should be caused by a sharp change in wind speed with height, not so much due to a change in wind direction with height. Conditions should improve to VFR by Thu morning, with LLWS leaving and wind gusts returning at KCMX and KSAW around the same time. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 434 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020 As a secondary low pres lifts NE of the Great Lakes tonight, colder air and a tighter pressure gradient should support gales to 35 knots over the east half of Lake Superior late tonight into Thu morning. Winds will settle back to 20-30kt during the aftn on Thursday. Winds will then diminish, falling blo 20kt for Fri, as high pres begins to ridge sse into the Upper Great Lakes. Light winds mostly under 15kt should prevail over the weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005- 006-014. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ251-266-267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...TAP/RJT MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the mountains tonight then stall across the eastern piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 919 PM EDT Wednesday... Prefrontal scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east across the region tonight. A stronger squall line to our west along the cold front from Ohio to Kentucky is expected to weaken as it enters the less unstable airmass with the onset of diurnal cooling and the primary shortwave accelerating northeastward into lower Michigan. Adjusted pops and weather tonight into Thursday morning utilizing a blend of radar trends, HRRR and Namnest. Modified temperatures with surface obs and mixed in NBM for tonight into Thursday morning. As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday... Adjusted temperatures for this evening into tonight utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in the NBM. Modified the pops and weather with radar trends and blended in the HRRR for this evening into tonight. As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... A cold front over the Mississippi Valley will move east today and should move over the mountains this evening. This front will be caught in quasi-parallel flow with an upper level ridge off the East Coast. Models have this front stalling across the coastal piedmont of NC/VA tomorrow. Since this front could park itself any where east of the Blue Ridge, we will keep PoPs in the forecast for the foothills and piedmont counties into Thursday afternoon. But the before the front enters the area tonight, we will see prefrontal convection going into this evening for the mountains and into the overnight for areas east of the Blue Ridge. A shortwave coupled with a tropical airmass will help generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Many of these storms will have heavy downpours and the efficient storms could drop an inch or two of rain in under an hour. The severe threat is Marginal as shear increase late in the day with some storms producing damaging winds. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal into tomorrow, but will see humidity level start to decrease tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday... The sluggish frontal boundary will be just close enough to the region to keep a chance of showers/thunder in the forecast across the far eastern portion of the area from around Buckingham VA down through Reidsville NC Thursday evening. After that, the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region look to remain dry for the remainder of the overnight period Thursday, with dry weather continuing through Friday and Friday night. By Saturday it appears that a weak backdoor front will start to drop down and bring a slight chance of some showers back to the region mainly up near the Interstate 64 corridor on Saturday, then spreading southward Saturday night. Temperatures will be right around seasonal normals with highs in the low/mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge and in the mid/upper 70s to the west. Lows generally lower 60s east, middle 50s west with some cooler readings in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1130 AM EDT Wednesday... Upper level trough/low moving through the region will become the next focus for potential rainfall Sunday through the first of next week. Model guidance is struggling a bit on handing the the upper- level trough moving across the Great Lakes region on Sunday/Monday. The GFS has been advertising a much more progressive pattern and moves the system in and out of the area fairly quick. On the other hand, the ECMWF has a meandering closed upper-level low stalled over the region for several days. The GFS scenario would allow for seasonable temperatures and drier conditions, the ECMWF scenario would be multiple rounds of rainfall and below normal temperatures. For now, with so much uncertainty, will maintain daily chance of showers/storms. Temperatures within this period look to be near normal to possibly several degrees below normal owing to persistent cloud cover and showers/storms. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 753 PM EDT Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the region this evening into tonight. There may be a brief break before showers and storms re-enter with a cold front around midnight. East of the Blue Ridge, scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue this evening into tonight. They too may see a break in the rain before the cold front slowly moves across the area Thursday morning. Mainly VFR and MVFR conditions this evening into tonight, outside showers and thunderstorms. A heavier storm may produce IFR conditions. The break between diurnal showers and rain with the front, low stratus deck/fog is possible. Conditions improve behind the front with winds becoming westerly. Medium confidence in ceilings,visibility and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Surface front is expected to stall over the piedmont and tidewater areas Thursday afternoon. This will result in a continuation of showers and storms just east of the mountains primarily impacting the I-95 corridor. Conditions across the mountains are expected to improve with mainly VFR for the central Appalachians Thursday and Friday. A secondary front is expected to cross the area Saturday, possibly associated with showers and MVFR Cigs. Considerable forecast uncertainty exists early next week. Consensus favors a high amplitude upper level trough in the eastern U.S. with a stalled front near the coast. Some of the model members are farther west with the placement of the trough and surface front, so this increases the uncertainty of the forecast and suggests we are not out of the woods with respect to potential cloud cover and the threat for rain and/or showers/storms early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/RCS NEAR TERM...KK/RCS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...KK/RCS