Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/11/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1019 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity levels increasing through Thursday with a risk of
showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday
evening as a cold approaches. Locally heavy downpours are
possible. Cold front slowly progresses eastward Thursday night
and off the coast Friday. Continued chances for rain across
southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island Thursday night, then
tapering off into Friday. Near normal temperatures and less
muggy for Friday into Saturday. Unsettled Sunday through
midweek with lots of clouds and off- and-on showers, with
temperatures trending near to slightly cooler than normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM update...
Warm front from the CT valley to near the south coast with NE
flow across eastern and NE MA. Areas of dense fog have
developed along the south coast and patchy across east coastal
MA. Expect vsbys to improve overnight along the east coast as
warm front lifts north and winds shift to south. But patchy
dense fog will continue along the south coast.
Area of showers and sct t-storms moving NE from eastern PA.
This activity expected to weaken as it moves east into a less
favorable environment with MUCAPES less than 500 J/kg, but a
few showers/t-storm possible across western New Eng overnight.
Previous discussion...
1024 mb high over the Maritimes has kept a warm front south of
New England with dry pleasant weather across SNE today. However
along and just ahead of this warm front, lots of low clouds and
fog are currently impacting Cape Cod and the Islands. This low
level moisture will continue spreading northward and then after
5 pm and especially toward sunset as blyr cools, low clouds and
fog should overspread eastern MA including Boston and the
southern/coastal RI into Buzzards Bay area. Some uncertainty on
exact timing of this but again thinking as peak heating ends and
blyr begins to cool especially 00z and thereafter. Given
uncertainty in timing have confined Dense Fog advisory to Cape
Cod and Islands beginning at 7 pm and continuing until 8 am Thu.
Advisory will likely have to be expanded westward to RI
coastline but will monitor how low clouds/fog evolves offshore
from Long Island to BID to MVY.
As warm lift moves across the area tonight expect patchy drizzle and
spotty rain to accompany areas of dense fog. Heavier showers with
possible thunder may enter western MA/CT after midnight as short
wave trough moves across western NY and weakening instability axis
enters western New England. With PWATs approaching 2 inches brief
heavy downpours could yield localized poor drainage flooding across
western MA/CT.
Mild and muggy tonight with dew pts rising thru the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday ...
Mid level trough moves across southern Ontario and Quebec with
associated cold front moving from eastern NY state in the morning to
central CT/MA by days end. This frontal scale forcing will combine
with PWATs around 2 inches to yield scattered showers with heavy
downpours. As previous forecasters have mentioned, instability is
marginal given cloud cover Thu with soundings showing a skinny CAPE
(less than 1000 j/kg) profile and deep warm cloud depth, suggesting
lower prob of lightning and higher prob of warm rain processes. So
greater threat of localized flooding Thu than severe wind/hail.
Although PWAT plume is somewhat progressive west to east tomorrow
minimizing cell training. Nonetheless something will have to watch.
Shower activity likely at a minimum across southeast MA given
timing/location of front and deeper moisture/instability.
Becoming breezy tomorrow as low level southwest jet increases to 40-
45 kt. Model soundings suggest G30 kt/35 mph possible Thu afternoon
with highest winds over southeast MA, 20-30 mph elsewhere.
Less sunshine tomorrow will keep highs to 75-80 but more humid than
today with warm sector over the region, dew pts climbing to 65-70.
Thursday night ...
Frontal boundary slides eastward with focus for showers and isolated
thunder over southeast including coastal RI into Cape Cod and
Islands. Thus risk for localized heavy downpours/flooding will be
across this region. Meanwhile, elsewhere a drying trend
develops with column slowly drying out from NW to SE.
Warm and humid conditions continue over eastern CT into RI and
southeast MA given FROPA slow to occur. Drier air farther upstream
across western-central MA with dew pts falling into the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights
* Lingering showers Friday AM confined to Cape Cod/Islands, but most
areas remaining dry with lower humidity across the interior.
* Light showers possible across the interior on Saturday with
temperatures near normal for this time of year.
* Confidence low late in the weekend into the middle of next week.
Could have a period of onshore flow and showers. Temperatures near
to below normal.
Friday and Saturday...
Cyclonic flow in place with a broad scale trough in place over the
eastern US while a ridge builds into central portions of the
country. Will see a shortwave trough lift from southeastern
Ontario/southern Quebec early on Friday northeastward into
Quebec/New Brunswick by the evening. At the surface a cold front
will be located around Cape Cod and the Island and continue sliding
offshore.
Another shortwave digs into the Great Lakes region from the Upper
Mississippi River Valley late on Friday through Saturday. This
slides another cold front through southern New England early on
Saturday.
Confidence high initially in the forecast as the first shortwave
lifts out and the cold front slides offshore on Friday. There still
is a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE available with PWAT values of
roughly 1.5 to 2 in across Cape Cod and the Islands. Have kept
showers and thunderstorms mentioned with a threat of heavy downpours
through Friday AM. This threat diminishes once the front moves
offshore late in the morning into the early afternoon.
Rest of southern New England will remain dry and more comfortable
with 50 degree dew points moving in as drier air advects in from
west. Do have strong westerly flow at 850 and 925 hPa, so have
increased high temperatures toward the 75th percentile of guidance
as downsloping is anticipated. This results in highs ranging from
the low 70s along the coastal plain to the mid 80s across the CT
River Valley and Merrimack Valley.
Dry and quiet weather continues Friday night into early Saturday.
Another cold front slides through, but will be dry. This will bring
some cloud cover and shift winds to a NW/N direction.
Moderate confidence on the forecast Saturday as the next shortwave
slides into the central/eastern Great Lakes. The GFS/GEM bring this
feature into the eastern Great Lakes, whereas the ECMWF keeps it
more over the central Great Lakes. Have kept a slight chance of
precipitation Saturday afternoon into the evening due to the
proximity of the wave in combination with diurnal heating.
Will be cooler as flow becomes onshore. Highs range from the mid
60s along the coastal plain to the 70s across the interior.
Saturday Night through Tuesday...
Confidence in the forecast lower significantly after Saturday night.
Models have large differences with the shortwave that slide into the
central Great Lakes/eastern Great Lakes late on Saturday. The ECMWF
cuts off this feature and rotates it around the central/eastern
Great Lakes before it moves into the Mid Atlantic on Monday/Tuesday.
The GFS/GEM are much more progressive with this feature and lift it
out of the region early on Monday and build a ridge in behind it.
Hard at this point in time to say which is the correct solution, so
have kept with the NBM guidance. Does not look like any washouts at
this point in time, but have kept chances of showers during this
window. Will be more of a rainfall concern if the ECMWF/EPS solution
is correct, but hard to pin point where and when the greatest threat
is.
Temperatures trending near to slightly below normal during this time
frame.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Thru 12Z...Moderate confidence
Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings with patchy fog across eastern MA,
into the south coast. MVFR ceilings across the CT River Valley
will lower to IFR late. Still could see an isolated thunderstorm
moving into western MA late.
The patchy fog will be dense at times across the south coast and
across eastern MA. Most confident in dense fog across Cape Cod
and the Islands. Should see visibilities improve at BOS once
winds shift to the south. Less certain across the south coast
with southerly winds persisting overnight. HRRR guidance may be
a bit too overdone with the fog, so mixed the previous forecast
with the latest GLAMP.
Thursday...
Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs with IFR/LIFR Cape Cod and southeast MA.
Scattered showers/t-storms moving into the region from west to
east. Locally heavy downpours possible. S/SW gusts to 25-30 kt
developing across eastern MA/RI.
Thursday night ...
Focus for showers with isolated thunder shifts to the south
coast along with IFR/LIFR conditions. Conditions trending to
MVFR/VFR elsewhere along with drying trend and winds trending
WNW with frontal passage.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends with low
confidence on exact timing of improving from 1/4 SM visibility.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday through Saturday: VFR.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night through Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR
possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight ...
Warm front approaches from the south with areas of dense fog
overspread the MA/RI waters. Patchy drizzle will develop overnight.
SE winds will become south overnight.
Thu...
SSW winds increase 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt possible near
shore especially along Plymouth county coastline. Vsby reduced in
morning fog and drizzle.
Thu night ...
SW winds diminish but scattered showers with embedded thunder
possible. Heavy downpours likely. Fog will reduce vsby.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ020-021.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ022>024.
RI...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for RIZ003>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
ANZ230>234-236-251.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-
237-250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL
NEAR TERM...KJC/Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Nocera/BL
MARINE...Nocera/BL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
511 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
A return to near seasonal temperatures this afternoon as departed
low pressure system digs into the central midwest as an overall
ridging pattern sets up across the region. Some mid level
vorticity coupled with a low amplitude shortwave may create some
elevated showers this afternoon and early evening. Given dewpoint
depressions and limited convective energy, current thought is more
of virga with some light rain or drizzle. Trended forecast for the
short-term period closer to the NAM Model Family including the
HRRR and NAMNEST.
Ridging pattern Thursday through Friday is a bit of dual side
record of the same song as the main axis lifts overhead the
region. Temperatures will be warmer from its predecessor with 700
mb temperatures in the 10-13 Celsius range. Return to 90s over the
NE High Plains Friday. Moisture values aloft remain dry enough to
mitigate any convection and precipitation opportunity.
Lows overnight will trend back to seasonal normals taking us out
of the preceding near freezing temperature as our seasonal
average ends of freeze dates especially out west come to pass.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Relatively quiet weather expected for the long range forecast, with
an upper level ridge axis remaining dominant over the Great Plains
into early next week. All models are in agreement with this overall
pattern with southwest flow aloft and above average temperatures
expected. The only minor concern is the potential for thunderstorms
across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with some strong
thunderstorms possible on Saturday. Models indicate a strong upper
level low slowly moving eastward across the Pacific northwest
coastline on Saturday, and moving inland later in the weekend while
weakening. Shortwave energy out ahead of the main low may impact
southeast Wyoming as early as Friday evening, with a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and Sunday. Coverage
looks isolated to widely scattered at this time due to relatively
low PW`s and drier air across the region. However, the low level jet
becomes active across the high plains this weekend, which may result
in higher PW`s across western Nebraska and far eastern Wyoming. Kept
POP between 20 to 30 percent for most of the eastern plains. Once
the Pacific energy lifts northeast, zone flow is expected early next
week with weak southwest flow due to a building upper level high
near the four corners region. This pattern typically results in dry
conditions with a minimal chance for thunderstorms due to upper
level subsidence. High temperatures will continue to trend warmer,
with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s along/east of I-25 and
readings in the 70s to low 80s west of I-25 this weekend and early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
VFR expected at all terminals through the period. Some cigs around
10kft this evening with even a few sprinkles over se Wy before
clearing by mid-evening. Brief gusty winds possible as well around
any light early this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
Fire weather concerns remain slightly elevated over the course of
this forecast period. Drying and warming trend continues over the
next several days as some brief chances of showers and
thunderstorms return Saturday and Sunday. Some area min RHs will
drop into the low teens with winds nearing 25 knots. Area of most
concern will be west of the Laramie Range in northern Albany and
Carbon Counties.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...WM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1138 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.AVIATION...
Secondary cold front is currently pushing across portions of western
Lower Michigan. Shallow cold air advection behind this feature is
leading to mixed PBL instability and drizzle. Given the number of
observations of DZ upstream, did introduce at TAF sites. Forecast
soundings are favorable for well mixed west southwest winds for much
of hte overnight. Stratocumulus or stratus will persist through
daybreak, then quickly give way to SKC Thursday.
For DTW...MVFR drizzle developing during the overnight with gusts to
30 knots possible. SKC developing by mid morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight.
* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded tonight and Thursday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
UPDATE...
Respectable severe weather episode coming to a conclusion. Outflow
released from the main line a bit early as convection seemed
unbalanced from a shear perspective once it filled in. Thus, as
shear ramped up this evening, outflow took an substantial edge off
the resident instability. Isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-
sized hail remain possible and will continue to cancel the watch
from west to east as warranted.
Some boundary layer recovery noted in the wake of exiting convection
with temps in the mid/upper 70s with upper 60s dewpoints noted over
central Lower. Won`t be sufficient to support an organized severe
threat along the encroaching cold front, but should be adequate to
support a few stronger gusts of 40 or possibly 50 mph as the last
round of low-topped showers & t-storms lifts through the area
through about 02z this evening.
Cold advection in the wake of the front will bring well-mixed
conditions through tonight as H85 temperatures fall into the low
single digits. Decent isentropic ascent by summer standards,
centered on the 290k surface, will favor occasional gusts in excess
of 30 kts. Gusty westerlies persist through Thursday with highs in
the 70s and much lower dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
DISCUSSION...
Numerous reports of wind damage, some significant, noted with the
lead convection along the deeper moisture lifting from Indiana into
central Michigan early this afternoon. Among other reports, there
was an impressive sustained (2-min avg) wind of 54 mph at Saginaw
Bay Lighthouse, though the gust apparently succumbed to automated
QC.
Confidence is high that a widespread damaging/significant severe
thunderstorm episode is imminent for the remainder of the forecast
area, including Metro Detroit. Bulk shear with severe convection
thus far today has averaged a respectable 35-40+ kts per RAP
analyses. However, as noted in the morning update, momentum fields
can now be expected to ramp up considerably as height falls increase
and dynamic forcing rapidly intensifies from south to north during
the next several hours. A key element to the rapidly evolving
environment that cannot be understated is the shedding of existing
anvil debris to the north-northwest. This has allowed uninhibited
destabilization to occur over the southeastern half of the CWA.
Latest RAP analysis indicates a broadening corridor of 2200-2500
j/kg MLCAPE over the CWA with at least another 1-2 hours of
potential quality destabilization remaining. Meteorology remains
largely unchanged - ever increasing bulk shear of 50+ kts
(especially eastern zones/Detroit area) will support some potential
for supercell modes. Given the high degree of instability, hail of
the 1 to 2 inch variety certainly possible but greater any greater
potential will be limited by rather pedestrian lapse rates on the
order of 6-7C/Km and the warm overall thermal profile. Extremely
limited availability of streamwise vorticity given deep/veered SSW
flow regime suggests the greatest tornado threat, if any, will lie
with bottom-up type processes unless an updraft can grab an outflow
and and use that as a means to deviate. The greatest threat by far
will be straight line winds of 70 mph, locally higher, and the
dominant convective mode will be individual downdraft modulated
clusters or bows. The potential magnitude of wind will increase with
both time and eastward extent. Finally, PWATs around 2 inches will
support torrential rainfall and the potential for localized
flooding. The progressive nature of overall convective line will
prevent widespread flooding impacts, though some training in the
Saginaw Valley has reportedly resulted in flooding on I-75 where
dual pol indicates 1 to 1.5" has fallen. Similar urban and small
stream impacts should be expected elsewhere.
Previous...Broad upper level trough on Thursday with sharper trough
axis diving south through the Great Lakes on Friday, delivering a
good shot of cold air to start the weekend, as 850 mb temps bottom
out around zero over Lower Michigan, Per 00z Euro. The cold front
coming through Friday looks moisture starved and LI`s look to stay
just positive. Nonetheless, would not be surprised if shower
activity has better coverage than outgoing forecast (slight chance)
Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
The forecast for the weekend and early next week will hinge on where
cutoff 500 MB low center develops, as spokes of energy and diurnal
instability will provide for periodic chances of showers. However,
the GFS and Canadian solutions are much farther east than the Euro
solution and suggest dry conditions and seasonably warm
conditions, which looks to be the direction of the forecast for
now.
MARINE...
Severe thunderstorms containing hail of 1 to locally 2 inches in
diameter and wind gusts of 70 mph (locally higher) will affect the
nearshore waters of Lake Huron and the lower waters of Lakes St.
Clair and Erie during the remainder of the evening. A severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect accordingly. The gale warning has
been cancelled as the background wind field and overlake instability
remains largely insufficient to generate gusts to gales. Gusty
southwest flow becomes westerly behind the cold front on Thursday.
Elevated offshore wind warrant small craft advisory with some
elevated sig waves of 3 to 4 feet likely near the tip of the Thumb
by midday Thurs. High pressure slowly builds in on Friday with flow
gradually becoming northwesterly. This will maintain favorable
boating conditions into the beginning of next week.
HYDROLOGY...
Tropical moisture resulting in torrential downpours/efficient
rainfall production with some urban flooding reported in the Saginaw
area. Despite the overall progressive nature of the convective line,
individual convective elements are moving in a NE direction which has
resulted in some degree of training. Therefore, urban and small
stream flooding should be expected elsewhere as this airmass will
easily produce 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short time.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ063-070.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ441>443.
Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......JVC
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......JVC
HYDROLOGY....JVC
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
619 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Smoke from area fires
may affect KTCS tonight through 6Z, but the bulk of the smoke
should stay aloft, keeping visibility at P6SM. S/SE wind at KTCS
10G20KTS through 2-3Z. For KELP, KDMN, and KLRU E/SE wind at less
than 10 knots, with an occasional gust to 15 knots after 6Z due
to low level moisture advecting into the region. SE`LY winds
tomorrow picks up to 10G20KTS all terminals after 18Z.
Thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z tomorrow, however have
left a mention out of the TAF due to low confidence on
placement/timing.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will shift to the southeast this evening across the region,
with more humid air filtering in during the overnight hours. The
increase in moisture will lead to scattered thunderstorms on
thursday, both in the lowlands and the mountains, with some strong
wind gusts possible. Drier air will work into areas east of the
Rio Grande Friday and through the weekend, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms expected each day in far southwestern New
Mexico. Near and east of the Rio Grande it will remain dry, with
seasonal temperatures. The forecast becomes less certain early
next week, with warmer conditions expected, and a slight chance
for thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday...
Moisture advects into the region tonight via southeasterly winds
thanks to the circulation around a developing high pressure system
to our east. Some mildly breezy winds may develop as this
moisture surges into the Borderland, but nothing out of the
ordinary in terms of speeds. Low temperatures will be mild
compared to the last few nights.
The aforementioned moisture will anchor over the region on
Thursday and as daytime heating and terrain features interact
with this lower level energy, so to speak, thunderstorms should
develop by the afternoon hours. Almost classic inverted V type
profiles, ~40-45 degree dewpt dep spreads, steep low to mid level
lapse rates, and sufficient CAPE will result in a mainly strong,
gusty wind threat with the strongest storms. Hi-res models
continue to show thunderstorm activity blossoming by the early to
mid afternoon hours with much of the region under the gun (best
threat approx from Deming to El Paso and points northeast). Would
not be surprised to see a few severe to near severe wind gusts
given the setup and forecast atmospheric soundings. High
temperatures on Thursday may be tempered a bit by developing
cumulus clouds and the associated shower and storm threat.
The fire north of Silver City in the Gila continues to produce
smoke which is drifting north. Visibility issues should mainly
confide to north of Silver City and surrounding locations across
portions of the Gila Wilderness. HRRR is hinting at a bit of
smoke approaching western Sierra county and perhaps elevated
smoke pushing farther east than that tonight. This will be
monitored through the overnight hours. The chance for isolated
thunderstorms and dry lightning will exist across the Gila on
Thursday.
35-DeLizio
&&
.LONG TERM...
Thunderstorms will diminish in coverage Thursday night, but a few
may linger past midnight as models suggest several weak vortmaxes
moving up from the southwest through the evening hours.
Southeasterly low level flow will persist Friday and through the
weekend, though some drier, continental air will work into areas
near and east of the Rio Grande. Meanwhile, upper level ridge axis
will extend from central Chihuahua, over far west Texas and into
the Texas Panhandle. In addition to the lower surface dewpoints,
subsidence and warmer air aloft will suppress any convection that
attempts to form over eastern parts of the CWA. Instead,
thunderstorms will mainly be focused over the Gila Region and
Bootheel, and nearby lowland areas in far SW New Mexico. Gusty
winds will be the main non-fire weather-related threat, possibly
leading to blowing dust around Lordsburg Playa.
Temperatures through the weekend will be more or less near normal,
in the mid to upper-90s across the lowlands.
Heading into Monday, the forecast becomes a little less certain as
the GFS and the majority of its ensemble members, suggest the
upper ridge will begin to weaken and shift east in response to
troughing over the west coast, while the ECMWF builds the
subtropical ridge right over New Mexico. For Monday, this means we
could either see scattered thunderstorms area-wide with mild
temperatures, or hot and dry with a few isolated thunderstorms in
SW New Mexico again. For now, went with NBM PoPs and a slight
warm-up in temperatures, hedging towards a less-amplified version
of the GFS with the ridge staying centered to our south, rather
than overhead. Unfortunately, this sort of pattern could bring
breezy southwest winds back into the picture.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Smoke continues to drift north from the Tadpole and Good/Turkey
fires as southerly winds continue over the region. Winds remain
southerly, veering between SSE and perhaps briefly SSW across the
Gila tonight, continuing as S`ly on Thurs. Low level smoke should
remain confide to portions of the Gila but elevated smoke may drift
into portions of Sierra county tonight. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area Thursday with
dry lightning possible in the Gila. Any storms that do develop have
the potential to produce strong and erratic outflow winds. An
isolated shower and thunderstorm threat will unfortunately remain
across the continental divide and into portions of the Gila through
the weekend and perhaps lingering into early next week. The constant
storm threat does mean moisture will be in place and hence min RH`s
rise to near 20% across area mountains (including Gila) and teens
elsewhere. Temperatures remain right around average through early
next week and vent rates will be mainly Very Good to Excellent
through the weekend.
35-DeLizio
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 93 71 96 / 0 30 30 0
Sierra Blanca 63 90 63 91 / 0 20 20 0
Las Cruces 65 91 65 93 / 0 30 30 0
Alamogordo 62 92 64 95 / 0 30 30 0
Cloudcroft 45 71 49 70 / 0 40 30 20
Truth or Consequences 63 92 64 92 / 0 40 40 20
Silver City 58 87 61 88 / 0 30 30 20
Deming 59 95 62 96 / 0 20 20 0
Lordsburg 63 95 65 96 / 0 20 20 0
West El Paso Metro 72 94 72 97 / 0 30 30 0
Dell City 61 95 63 95 / 0 20 20 0
Fort Hancock 67 96 68 99 / 0 20 30 0
Loma Linda 65 89 67 90 / 0 30 30 0
Fabens 69 95 70 98 / 0 30 30 0
Santa Teresa 66 92 66 96 / 0 30 30 0
White Sands HQ 69 93 70 94 / 0 30 30 0
Jornada Range 54 93 64 93 / 0 30 40 0
Hatch 57 93 63 94 / 0 30 40 0
Columbus 64 96 65 97 / 0 30 20 0
Orogrande 65 93 65 94 / 0 30 30 0
Mayhill 48 82 52 82 / 0 40 30 10
Mescalero 47 81 52 81 / 0 40 40 20
Timberon 45 80 51 79 / 0 40 30 0
Winston 46 86 51 86 / 0 40 40 30
Hillsboro 55 92 58 92 / 0 30 40 20
Spaceport 54 92 60 92 / 0 40 40 0
Lake Roberts 49 87 54 88 / 0 30 30 30
Hurley 56 88 58 91 / 0 30 30 20
Cliff 47 94 55 96 / 0 30 20 10
Mule Creek 46 90 61 93 / 0 30 20 0
Faywood 57 90 60 91 / 0 30 30 20
Animas 59 97 63 99 / 0 20 10 0
Hachita 58 95 60 96 / 0 20 20 0
Antelope Wells 61 95 62 98 / 0 20 10 10
Cloverdale 59 91 62 93 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1008 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing onshore flow will result in areas of low
clouds, fog, and drizzle developing tonight. A cold front will
cross the region on Thursday with showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms before it dries out from west to east Thursday
night. A drier and eventually cooler airmass gradually works in
behind the front heading into the weekend although showers
cannot be ruled out as upper level low pressure meanders
nearby.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
10PM UPDATE...
Added drizzle to the forecast for the coastal plain tonight as
we have received some reports of this. ASOS sites not picking
this up, but it makes sense given the situation.
8PM UPDATE...
Made a few more adjustments to precipitation chances overnight.
Showers continue to fall apart as they track in from the west,
but will still be producing a few sprinkles mainly over southern
areas in the next few hours. Onshore flow brings low clouds and
potential for fog to the coast through the night. Cannot rule
out some drizzle. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough arriving from
the southwest may bring a round of showers through New Hampshire
by morning.
5PM UPDATE...
Have updated the forecast primarily to increase rain chances in
west central New Hampshire where some remnant showers are
tracking in from southern Vermont. Cannot rule out a few
lightning strikes, but intensity should be on the decrease as it
moves into an area with increasingly less instability.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
The main forecast issue for tonight will be areas of drizzle
and fog spreading north through the Gulf of Maine and into
portions of northern New England. Afternoon satellite imagery
continues to show low clouds expanding north through the Gulf of
Maine and into the southwest coast of Maine and Seacoast of New
Hampshire by around 00Z. The advection of this moisture is
supported by sounding forecasts and the latest HRRR as well.
This moisture continues to expand inland overnight, reaching all
but far northern and western areas by morning.
In addition to this moisture, a few light rain showers may
expand of the Gulf as well. Also, convection over portions of
interior New England will likely weaken as it reaches New
Hampshire by this evening.
Overnight lows will remain in the 50s to the mild lower 60s with
all of the moisture in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A gusty southerly gradient will continue on Thursday, allowing
for plenty of moisture advection ahead of an approaching cold
front. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon hours, despite the limited CAPE values. With the
strong wind fields in place, both at the surface and aloft, a
few of the storms may contain strong gusty winds. SPC has most
of western Maine and New Hampshire embedded in a marginal risk
for the day.
Prior to the scattered thunderstorms, it may take several hours
during the morning for the areas of drizzle and fog to mix
out/burn off.
The gusty onshore winds and wave action on Thursday does
increase our rip risk. For now, have mentioned the possibility
of high rip risk in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Warmest readings during the day will be over western New
Hampshire, where temperatures may approach 80 degrees This will
be in contrast to portion of Maine which will only reach the 60s
due to the gusty winds coming in off the cold Atlantic waters.
Scattered showers end Thursday night. Winds will veer to the
southwest. This will allow for much of the low level moisture to
exit the region. Hence, fog should be more limited than
tonight`s low level moisture.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday our area will find itself in a dry post-frontal air mass
although a secondary cold front will likely pass during the
afternoon with a period of bkn clouds and perhaps a few showers
in the mountains. Surface high pressure will build in from the
northwest over the weekend but upper level low pressure will
also be present. Therefore, it won`t be picture perfect - may be
a scenario with diurnal stratocu and showers, especially Sunday.
The upper low should lose it`s grip on the region early next
week and be replaced by increasing deep layer ridging which
could result in a return to summer heat midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday Night/...
Long Term...VFR returns for Friday and Saturday with variable
winds as another wave crosses. Some MVFR possible in showers in
the mountains Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday Night/...An increasing and well
aligned south to southeasterly gradient will allow for winds to
exceed SCA thresholds tonight. Gusty winds will continue over
the waters Thursday and into Thursday evening as well.
Areas of drizzle and fog expected over the waters tonight into
Thursday. It is possible the fog may become quite dense in some
areas.
Long Term...Seas diminish to below 5 ft behind a crossing cold
front by Friday morning with winds switching offshore. Seas and
winds remain below SCA thresholds through the start of next week
with broad high pressure crossing to the north into the
maritimes. This sets up a cooler, onshore/easterly flow over
the waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight EDT
Thursday night for ANZ151-153.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Ekster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1133 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
Original convection has shifted east of the area, but additional
showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped
over the far eastern portion of the state ahead of the cold front
moving through. Have maintained a slight chance of precip ahead of
the front for a couple of hours yet. Clearing is occuring behind
the front, but low clouds upstream will try to progress southeast
and fill in again overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 844 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
Cleared counties from svr tstm watch 278 west of the convective
line. Tightened up the POP gradient on the western edge of the
precip, but the overall forecast modifications were minimal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 358 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
A cold front is analyzed over central Kentucky this afternoon.
Gusty southerly winds continue ahead of this feature. In addition,
temperatures near 90, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid
70s has led to nearly 2500J/kg of MLCAPE across the area. Showers
and a few storms are already developing just ahead of this
boundary across central Kentucky, with a few others showers and
storms developing on the terrain near the Tennessee and Virginia
border. DCAPE values continue to range in the 1000-1200J/kg
suggesting a strong potential for downburst winds with any more
organized storms that develop. Given our effective shear has been
increasing to between 35 and 40 knots, there is reasonable amount
of confidence storms will continue to organize upstream as they
begin to track east through the area this evening. Freezing levels
remain quite high suggesting the large hail threat would be fairly
limited. However, some smaller hail may be possible with the
strongest storms. Tornado potential does not look as good early
on, but RAP 0-1 SRH values increase to between 100-150 by 00z,
suggesting the tornado potential could increase as we head into
the later evening hours. We will continue to watch these trends
through the evening.
The cold front will push on through by late evening or overnight,
with cooler and less humid air surging into the area behind the
front. A difficult forecast for late tonight, as any rainfall
combined with slower dry advection, could yield a period of fog
(perhaps dense) for a period late tonight. However, without
knowing how much rain or where the rain falls, hard to have much
confidence with fog at this time. It does appear possible some
lower clouds could also move in late which would limit the fog
threat. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday with
any clouds eroding through the day. Temperatures will be cooler,
generally around 80. With high pressure continuing to build in
Thursday night, a cooler night is anticipated with lows well into
the 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
A trough axis will be intact across the eastern half of the U.S. to
start the period Friday. This trough will remain blocked and in
place throughout much of the extended period, strengthening and
developing an upper level low by the weekend. The ECMWF will keep
the upper level low in place across the region through the end of
the extended period, while the GFS will shift eastward bringing
upper level ridging into the period to start the new work week. This
trough will actually bring more northern stream air into the region,
so high temperatures will not be quite as warm as has been in recent
days, generally upper 70s and low 80s, warming into the low to mid
80s by the very end of the period.
Despite the trough, at the surface, high pressure will be in control
from Thursday through Saturday, with generally dry weather on tap. A
week frontal boundary will drop south into the state during the day
Sunday, and may bring some isolated and scattered precip to the
region. There is quite a bit of disparity at this point in the
models, though both the GFS and ECMWF have gone more dry for Monday.
The NBM is still going with some scattered precip in the far east,
but given the back and forth in the models, will stick with that at
this time. The NBM seems to be bridging the gap between the two
models for the remainder of the extended as the ECWMF brings the
upper level low into the Ohio Valley, and the GFS has the upper
level wave pushing into New England. Given how far out in the
forecast period we are, just kept with the NBM at this time. If the
ECMWF solution is correct, more rain chances are on tap for at least
the far eastern portion of the state through the end of the extended
forecast period. If the GFS is correct, however, we will remain
nearly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
A broken line of thunderstorms was bisecting the JKL forecast area
north/south at the start of the period, bringing gusty winds and
localized IFR or worse conditions. The line will move east and
exit the state by around 03Z. Following this, VFR conditions are
forecast through most of the night. Toward dawn, low clouds are
expected to increase, and could bring MVFR conditions. However,
confidence in the extent of MVFR conditions is not very high. The
most likely place to see it is in southeast KY, and at this point
the TAF sites are not forecast to descend back below VFR. Whatever
transpire, VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide by
Thursday afternoon. After this evening, winds will generally be
less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
934 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will remain in control of our weather
through tonight. A slow moving cold front approaches the area
Thursday and then stall over the area this weekend. Unsettled
weather likely continues into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 920 PM Wednesday...Dry weather expected overnight with PC
skies. Lows will drop only to the low- to- mid 70s and remain
muggy with dew points in the upper- 60s and low- 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Wednesday...A slow-moving cold front will inch
closer to our CWA, though it will not cross our area tomorrow.
Srly flow ahead of the front will ramp up during the day with
winds gusting to 20 kts again. A few sct to numerous showers and
a few thunderstorms will develop in the aftn and stay contained
to our westernmost counties. PWAT values expected to exceed 2
inches, so heavy downpours are likely within storms. Latest HRRR
shows CAPE values along the western CWA boundary right around
1000 J/kg with little to no shear. Marginal risk for severe
remains appropriate with the main threat being heavy downpours
and gusty winds within stronger thunderstorms. Highs in the
mid- 80s with dewpoints around a muggy 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Confidence is increasing for a rather
extended period of unsettled weather for Eastern NC, into early
next week. A slow moving cold front will push into the area
Thursday night and then stall over the area through the
weekend. Slightly improving conditions are possible early next
week as the boundary dissolves and precipitation becomes more
scattered.
Thursday night through Saturday...A slow moving cold front will
approach the coast and then stall over the coastal plain on
Friday as upper flow parallels the front thanks to the
persistent upper troughing. By early Friday morning, more
widespread precip shifts overhead, which will then continue
through the day. The axis of heaviest and most widespread
showers and thunderstorms then shifts a bit further east on
Saturday...over coastal NC.
High PWATs 1.75-2.25" during this period will bring the
potential for heavy rain, and the slow moving nature of the
front will lead to the possibility of training cells. Thus,
there is an increasing flood threat, especially given the
recent wet weather over the last month or so (many areas in
Eastern NC have seen 200-300% of normal rainfall).
Temperatures for this period will be below normal with
considerable cloudiness expected.
Sunday through Tuesday...As the front breaks down Sunday, upper
troughing will linger over the eastern CONUS for the remainder
of the period as an omega block sets up over the country.
A cut off low is expected to develop and sit over the
southern Appalachians which will keep unsettled conditions over
the area through early next week, though the focus for precip
will likely shift to central NC as an inverted trough forms.
Continued below average temperatures are expected.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Thu/...
As of 705 PM Wednesday...A stubborn batch of low-level clouds
over the western TAF sites can be seen on satellite slowly
eroding. Ceilings at the moment remain at MVFR, but will return
to VFR once those low-level clouds break within the next hour or
so. A few iso shra/tsra is still possible this evening, though
POPs are greatly diminishing from this point. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and dry weather are expected for all TAF sites
overnight. Similar to this morning, models show MVFR ceilings
developing shortly after sunrise Thu AM. Srly winds will ramp up
as well with gusts 15 to 20 kts. Sct tsra may develop close to
the western TAF sites by 18Z, so have put a VCTS for PGV. Precip
will remain west through the aftn.
Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible
Thursday night through the weekend as a slow moving cold front
moves over the area and then stalls.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thu/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...Gusty S winds will cont along the
coast well into tonight between high pres offshore and deep low
pres lifting N of Great Lakes. Went closer to higher res mdls
and have added Albemarle Sound/Alligator River to the SCA as
expect at least gusts to 25 kts all but wrn rivers thru the
evening. Winds will diminish slowly later tonight and Thu with
speeds remaining mainly below 25 kts so will cont with SCA
ending prior to daybreak...however conditions will at times be
close to SCA into Thu with some gusts aoa 20 kt. Seas thru
period mainly 3 to 5 ft with some 6 footers poss at times thru
later tonight outer central/srn wtrs.
Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected after
Thursday as a slow moving cold front moves overhead and stalls.
Winds subside to S 10-15 kts on Friday and then SSE at 5-10 kts
Saturday and Sunday. Seas come down as well, becoming 2-3 ft
Friday through Sunday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-150-
230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ML
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...SGK/MS
AVIATION...SGK/ML
MARINE...RF/SGK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight...Diurnal convective activity over land is winding
down, with some largely debris type rainfall expected to continue
over the next hour or so. Radar, and to some degree short range guid
from HRRR suggests some potential for some Atlantic based showers to
continue well into the overnight period. Some of this activity will
have the potential to reach the coastal areas from around the Cape
southward. Will maintain a less than 20 PoP for coastal areas
overnight in grids.
Expect lows in the L-M70s for most areas (U70s in a few spots).
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevailing over the next 24 hours
outside of convection. Kept VCSH through 01Z for KISM. Tomorrow, SE
flow through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Added
VCTS starting at 20Z for the interior sites and VCSH for coastal
sites.
&&
.MARINE...Tonight...High pressure in place providing a weak
pressure gradient and thus favorable conditions across the local
waters. Generally SERLY winds overnight 5-10 kts. Only ISOLD-WDLY
SCT shower/storm chances for the next 24 hours. Seas building to 2-3
ft tonight due to the beginnings of more pronounced SE flow.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
JP/JC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
754 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 434 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level trough
through the central CONUS. A vigrous upstream shortwave trough over
northern IL supported an area of showers through southern WI with TS
over se WI in an area where MLCAPE values were above 1000 J/Kg.
Additional sct diurnal -shra from northeast Mn into nw WI were
associated with mid level fgen ahead of the mid level trough axis.
Tonight, expect the shra over WI supported by moderate to strong 700-
300 qvector conv ahead of the shrtwv to expand to the northeast this
evening affecting mainly the southeast half of Upper Michigan. Some
TS may also be possible over the far south this evening where MLCAPE
values to near 500 J/Kg are forecast. Otherwise, sct/isold -shra
will also develop over the west early this evening as the area of
fgen moves through before daytime heating subsides. The pcpn should
move out of the east overnight as cooler air prevails over the area
with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Thursday, deep cyclonic wnw flow will prevail as the mid level low
settles near northeastern Lake Superior. Mixing depths to around 4k-
5k ft will help mix a portion of the stronger 850 mb winds resulting
in gusts to around 25-30 knots over much of the area as temps climb
into the upper 60s to around 70 inland. A band of 850-700 mb fgen
will help support sct -shra near the WI border by late afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 436 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
An amplified pattern is expected over N America thru at least the
upcoming weekend. Trof currently over the Mid and Upper Mississippi
Valley will move across the Great Lakes region thru Fri. Over the
weekend, pattern will again become quite amplified with a fairly
deep trof moving into the western U.S. forcing an amplified central
N America ridge while the Great Lakes trof drifts toward the eastern
U.S. Looks like the eastern trof may close off a mid-level low
somewhere btwn the Lower Great Lakes and the central Appalachians
early next week as the upstream ridge becomes reoriented sw to ne
from the central Plains to se Canada. Main question during the first
half of next week is whether the ridging holds on over the northern
Great Lakes per ECMWF or whether the ridge flattens/deamplifies
sufficiently per GFS for the westerlies to settle s and allow
shortwaves to affect the area. For Upper MI, these changes in the
large scale pattern will result in cooler weather thru the end of
the week, probably well blo normal for at least one day (Fri), as
the trof moves across the Great Lakes region. Warmth will then
return early next week, with a trend to above normal, as the
upstream ridge drifts across the Great Lakes and sw flow takes hold
again. As for pcpn, the evolving pattern will be a drier one for
Upper MI. May see some -shra/sprinkles Thu night, but otherwise, dry
weather will follow thru the weekend under influence of Canadian
high pres. There will probably be a risk of shra/tsra at some point
during the first half of next week, depending on how quickly the
ridge over the area flattens.
Beginning Thu night/Fri...there may be some isold -shra or
sprinkles Thu evening toward the MI/WI border vcnty of southward
moving sfc trof. A few -shra will also be possible over the ne
fcst during the evening in association with shortwave brushing
eastern Lake Superior. Otherwise, cool conditions will be the rule
Thu night/Fri as 850mb temps fall to roughly 0 to 3C. Lows Thu
night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Fri will be the coolest
day of the period. Will be especially cool along Lake Superior,
especially e of Marquette under long fetch nw winds. Lakeside
locations will not get out of the 40s. In the interior, highs will
range up only thru the 50s and lower 60s.
The weekend will be dry with probably mostly clear skies. The GFS
looks way too aggressive in already bringing -shra into far western
Upper MI Sat night/Sun morning as it is least pronounced with the
mid-level ridge approaching the western Great Lakes. ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
all have a much sharper ridge, and fcst will favor that idea,
resulting dry weather thru the weekend. Temps will moderate with
readings back close to normal for Sun. There will be a frost risk in
the interior Fri night and Sat night, but especially Fri night. On
Fri night, precipitable water will be down blo 50pct of normal to
enhance raditional cooling. With much of the guidance having min
temps down to the mid 30s in the interior, including traditional
cold spots down to around freezing, may be looking at a fairly
widespread frost across the interior Fri night. Frost potential
returns Sat night, but coldest conditions may end up over the
interior e half.
Warming will continue Mon thru Wed with high temps mostly mid 70s to
lwr 80s for Tue/Wed. Could be at least several degrees warmer one of
those days depending on timing of shortwaves which would pull
thermal ridging into the area. The ridge over the Upper Lakes will
probably flatten sufficiently for shortwaves tracking thru the
westerlies to have some impact on the weather here. Although the
ECMWF continues to offer a drier solution, it is trending toward
more suppression of the ridge though not nearly to the GFS idea. In
any event, there is no signal for an organized pcpn event yet Mon
thru Wed. Any pcpn would probably be isold to sct.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 753 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
This evening, another area of developing low pressure is expected to
pass to the southeast of Upper Michigan and will bring another round
of showers, mainly over the southeast half of Upper Michigan. VFR
conditions will continue for KIWD as skies remain CLR until dawn.
KSAW should reach VFR conditions in the next few hours as the
showers move out of the area, while KCMX will stay in MVFR until
dawn. LLWS is also expected at each of the TAF sites tonight, based
off of the model soundings from the NAM3km model. The LLWS should be
caused by a sharp change in wind speed with height, not so much due
to a change in wind direction with height. Conditions should improve
to VFR by Thu morning, with LLWS leaving and wind gusts returning at
KCMX and KSAW around the same time.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 434 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2020
As a secondary low pres lifts NE of the Great Lakes tonight, colder
air and a tighter pressure gradient should support gales to 35 knots
over the east half of Lake Superior late tonight into Thu
morning. Winds will settle back to 20-30kt during the aftn on
Thursday. Winds will then diminish, falling blo 20kt for Fri, as
high pres begins to ridge sse into the Upper Great Lakes. Light
winds mostly under 15kt should prevail over the weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
006-014.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ251-266-267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...TAP/RJT
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the mountains tonight then stall across
the eastern piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 919 PM EDT Wednesday...
Prefrontal scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to
move east across the region tonight. A stronger squall line to
our west along the cold front from Ohio to Kentucky is expected
to weaken as it enters the less unstable airmass with the onset
of diurnal cooling and the primary shortwave accelerating
northeastward into lower Michigan. Adjusted pops and weather
tonight into Thursday morning utilizing a blend of radar
trends, HRRR and Namnest. Modified temperatures with surface
obs and mixed in NBM for tonight into Thursday morning.
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...
Adjusted temperatures for this evening into tonight utilizing
the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in the NBM.
Modified the pops and weather with radar trends and blended in
the HRRR for this evening into tonight.
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...
A cold front over the Mississippi Valley will move east today
and should move over the mountains this evening. This front will
be caught in quasi-parallel flow with an upper level ridge off
the East Coast. Models have this front stalling across the
coastal piedmont of NC/VA tomorrow. Since this front could park
itself any where east of the Blue Ridge, we will keep PoPs in
the forecast for the foothills and piedmont counties into
Thursday afternoon.
But the before the front enters the area tonight, we will see
prefrontal convection going into this evening for the mountains
and into the overnight for areas east of the Blue Ridge. A
shortwave coupled with a tropical airmass will help generate
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Many of
these storms will have heavy downpours and the efficient storms
could drop an inch or two of rain in under an hour. The severe
threat is Marginal as shear increase late in the day with some
storms producing damaging winds.
Temperatures will remain warmer than normal into tomorrow, but
will see humidity level start to decrease tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...
The sluggish frontal boundary will be just close enough to the
region to keep a chance of showers/thunder in the forecast
across the far eastern portion of the area from around
Buckingham VA down through Reidsville NC Thursday evening. After
that, the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region look to
remain dry for the remainder of the overnight period Thursday,
with dry weather continuing through Friday and Friday night.
By Saturday it appears that a weak backdoor front will start to
drop down and bring a slight chance of some showers back to the
region mainly up near the Interstate 64 corridor on Saturday,
then spreading southward Saturday night.
Temperatures will be right around seasonal normals with highs
in the low/mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge and in the mid/upper
70s to the west. Lows generally lower 60s east, middle 50s west
with some cooler readings in the valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Wednesday...
Upper level trough/low moving through the region will become
the next focus for potential rainfall Sunday through the first
of next week.
Model guidance is struggling a bit on handing the the upper-
level trough moving across the Great Lakes region on
Sunday/Monday. The GFS has been advertising a much more
progressive pattern and moves the system in and out of the area
fairly quick. On the other hand, the ECMWF has a meandering
closed upper-level low stalled over the region for several days.
The GFS scenario would allow for seasonable temperatures and
drier conditions, the ECMWF scenario would be multiple rounds of
rainfall and below normal temperatures.
For now, with so much uncertainty, will maintain daily chance
of showers/storms. Temperatures within this period look to be
near normal to possibly several degrees below normal owing to
persistent cloud cover and showers/storms.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 753 PM EDT Wednesday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across
the region this evening into tonight. There may be a brief
break before showers and storms re-enter with a cold front
around midnight. East of the Blue Ridge, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should continue this evening into tonight. They
too may see a break in the rain before the cold front slowly
moves across the area Thursday morning.
Mainly VFR and MVFR conditions this evening into tonight,
outside showers and thunderstorms. A heavier storm may produce
IFR conditions. The break between diurnal showers and rain
with the front, low stratus deck/fog is possible. Conditions
improve behind the front with winds becoming westerly.
Medium confidence in ceilings,visibility and winds during the
taf period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Surface front is expected to stall over the piedmont and
tidewater areas Thursday afternoon. This will result in a
continuation of showers and storms just east of the mountains
primarily impacting the I-95 corridor. Conditions across the
mountains are expected to improve with mainly VFR for the
central Appalachians Thursday and Friday. A secondary front is
expected to cross the area Saturday, possibly associated with
showers and MVFR Cigs.
Considerable forecast uncertainty exists early next week.
Consensus favors a high amplitude upper level trough in the
eastern U.S. with a stalled front near the coast. Some of the
model members are farther west with the placement of the trough
and surface front, so this increases the uncertainty of the
forecast and suggests we are not out of the woods with respect
to potential cloud cover and the threat for rain and/or
showers/storms early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/RCS
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...KK/RCS