Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/07/20

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
712 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated the forecast to include a Coastal Flood Advisory early Sunday morning into the early afternoon. Around high tide at 8:12 AM CDT, water levels are expected to reach or even push into the dunes on South Padre Island and Boca Chica Beach. Driving on the beach is not recommended. && .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to persist across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the next 24 hours. As Tropical Storm Cristobal moves northward across the central Gulf, light to occasionally moderate winds are expected through the period, and will constantly be shifting direction. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Some very light showers developed across the lower Texas Gulf waters and the immediate coastline this morning and amounted to trace amounts of rainfall, mainly in rural locations. As of 2 PM CDT, KBRO shows one lone shower just north of the BRO coastal waters, moving in a southwest direction. Isolated showers will continue to be possible, generally restricted off the coast through this afternoon, but can`t rule out a stray shower or two inland, with the latest HRRR model suggesting some isolated, light showers developing along and west of U.S. 281 later this afternoon. Not completely sold on this solution, but did add some silent 10% PoPs into the forecast through 7 PM. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low-mid 70s. Upper-level ridging will maintain control over Deep South Texas through the short-term period as Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move northward across the central Gulf of Mexico. Subsident air on the west side of Cristobal should keep the atmosphere dry in the short-term. However, winds will try to turn easterly during the afternoon on Sunday, which may produce isolated showers with the seabreeze. Not a whole lot of confidence of this scenario occurring with the limited moisture available. Shower activity would be very spotty, even if this were to occur. Overall, winds will remain light and variable across the CWA through tomorrow afternoon. Southerly winds are anticipated to return and prevail starting Sunday night. Temperatures will really begin to increase beginning tomorrow afternoon, with highs about 4-6 degrees warmer than today...mid- upper 90s in most locations, with lower 100s across western Starr and Zapata Counties. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed again for the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties tomorrow morning, when the next high tide occurs. A High Risk of rip currents will continue at local beaches due to the Cristobal swell. As a result, a Rip Current Statement is in effect through the weekend. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of a High Surf Advisory for tomorrow. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): The main issue in the long term will be the hot to very hot conditions, especially during the first half of the period. Deep south Texas will remain on the western periphery of Cristobal, as remnants of this system advances northward, and under building mid-level ridging. The combination of hot temperatures and the steady moist southeast surface flow will allow dew points to increase across the area by early next week resulting in dangerous high index values. The highest heat indices are expected Tuesday with widespread values of 110-115+ degrees. Heat advisories may be possible early to midweek, with the best chance occurring on Tuesday afternoon. Strong subsidence over the region will keep rain chances very low to nil. A weak cold front is expected to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. Low level moisture pooling ahead of this front and weak lift associated with the boundary may support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to fall a few degrees, near normal levels, late in the week courtesy of northeast flow. Much drier air arrives by Friday as surface high pressure moves into the region. The concern for minor coastal flooding and the higher risk of rip currents will gradually diminish early next week once Cristobal moves farther north after making landfall across the northern Gulf Coast. However, lingering minor coastal flooding may continue at least through the morning high tide cycle on Monday. MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): Buoy 42020 reported north winds around 10 knots gusting to around 14 knots with seas around 3.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 1340 CDT/1840 UTC. Light to moderate winds are expected to prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. However, adverse sea conditions will impact the lower Texas Gulf waters due to swell propagating from Tropical Cyclone Cristobal. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 6 PM CDT this evening and continue through Sunday afternoon for the outer Gulf waters (20-60 nm). Meanwhile, a Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 10 PM CDT tonight and continue into Sunday afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters (0-20 nm). Monday through Thursday): Marine conditions will gradually improve next week as Cristobal moves farther inland across the northern Gulf coast on Monday. The relatively tight pressure gradient in the wake of the tropical system will support moderate south winds Monday into Monday night. Exercise caution conditions are expected along the lower Texas Gulf waters during this time. Winds diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as the pressure gradient weakens with the approach of a weak cold front. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ256-257-351. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ256- 257-351. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ170-175. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ150-155. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Aviation/Grid Update...69
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1005 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The area will remain between Atlantic high pressure and a surface trough inland tonight. A cold front will stall over or just north of our area early next week, then will gradually dissipate through the middle of next week. Another weakening cold front could approach the area late next week, then shift offshore late next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Isentropic ascent will continue to produce widespread rains associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal that will continue to inch northward across the Altamaha River overnight. The rains will only make it so far north, prevented from spreading much any further north than maybe I-16, if even that far north. We show a tight gradient from little to no PoP north of I-16, to as much as 40-60% to the south of there. Not certain on how much t-storm activity there will be, so removed it from all but McIntosh County where there might be just enough MLCAPE. The HRRR is hinting at a small convective band developing from off the Gulf Stream after 4 or 5 am, and making a run toward the South Carolina coast. This will bear watching. Given extensive cloud cover and the elevated dew points, it`ll be another warm and muggy night. Lows will average several degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday: Mid-level heights should remain consistent overhead as TC Cristobal moves into a ridge of high pressure over the MS Valley. At the surface, focus will be on TC Cristobal approaching the Gulf Coast. Abundant moisture on the eastern side of the storm will be ushered across the Southeast, with PWATs in the 1.5-2" range. At the same time, a weak cold front will approach from the north, stalling over or just north of our area. The combination of the abundant moisture and increasing lift will lead to showers. The highest POPs are over our GA counties where moisture is slightly higher. There is not much instability, so the thunderstorm risk during the day is low. Despite plenty of clouds, highs are still expected to reach the mid to upper 80s. The showers are expected to dissipate in the evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Lows will remain mild, ranging in the low to mid 70s, warmest at the beaches. Monday and Tuesday: The mid-levels will consist of Cristobal moving to the north towards the Great Lakes region, eventually becoming absorbed in an approaching trough to the west. This will push a ridge of high pressure to the east, over the East Coast. At the surface, Cristobal will be moving inland far to our west while a weak front will be dissipating over or just north of our area. Deep moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico will remain across the Southeast, with PWATs still in the 1.5-2" range. Most of the precipitation should be driven by the afternoon heating. We kept the chance POPs each afternoon, with lower POPs at night. There is a more instability both days, leading to greater probability of thunderstorms. The main concern is locally heavy rainfall due to the slow storm motions. Though, damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out if DCAPE values increase. Highs should be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees each day. Lows will remain mild, ranging in the low to mid 70s, warmest at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will gradually spread across the region from the western Atlantic mid-week under a ridge of high pressure aloft. This should shift the bulk of deeper tropical moisture inland while the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cristobal continues to lift north and eventually becomes absorbed in a longwave trough of low pressure advancing across the Central United States. Few to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday, but the bulk of precip activity should be more diurnally driven with peak coverage Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance then suggests a weakening cold front approaching inland areas Thursday and potentially stalling over or near the area into Friday before a reinforcing cold front approaches inland and shifts offshore during the weekend. Given the setup, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, before the bulk of precip shifts offshore with the front late Saturday. Afternoon highs should remain near normal throughout the week given precip activity and some clouds in place. In general, highs should range in the mid/upper 80s (warmest away from the coast). Overnight lows will start off mild Wednesday night, ranging in the low/mid 70s, then become cooler by the weekend behind any fropa, ranging in the mid/upper 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KSAV: VFR ceilings as we begin the 00Z TAF cycle, but MVFR ceilings, potentially even IFR, are expected after 06Z, as moisture increases within a S-SW low level flow. Ceilings should increase into the low-end VFR range after 15Z. The bulk of the -RA/-SHRA associated with Tropical Storm Cristobal will stay south of the terminal until late Sunday morning into the afternoon. Even so, any sub-VFR visibilities seems highly unlikely. KCHS: VFR will prevail with the 00Z TAF. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible due to showers/thunderstorms, especially each afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Overnight: The pressure gradient is starting to slacken, and we`re looking at narrow ridge between the cyclonic circulation around Cristobal and trough to the N-NW. This will result in S or SW winds around 15 kt or less, with seas generally at or below 3 or 4 ft. A cold front will stall over or just north of our area on Sunday, then gradually dissipate into the middle of the week. Winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. High pressure should then pass offshore midweek before a weakening cold front approaches inland areas Thursday. Winds/seas are expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisories during this time frame with onshore winds generally remaining at or below 10-15 kt while seas build no higher than 3-5 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Lingering affects of the recent lunar perigee and full moon will continue to contribute to elevated tides into early next week. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evening/nighttime high tides along the South Carolina coast. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar will remain out of service for equipment upgrades through June 11, and radar data will not be available during this time. Neighboring radars include: Wilmington, NC (KLTX); Jacksonville, FL (KJAX); Moody AFB, GA (KVAX); Warner Robins AFB, GA (KJGX); and Columbia, SC (KCAE). Supplemental weather balloon releases in support of Tropical Cyclone Cristobal forecasts will end at 06Z tonight (6/7). && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1012 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Showers continue over far NE ND and thru much of nrn MN in broad area of 700 mb warm/moist advection. No thunder noted. Attention turns to line of storms with a long history of winds over 60 mph that moved thru parts of Wyoming and Colorado earlier and now moving north-northeast 60 mph thru NW SD into SW ND. Severe t-storm watch for far western fcst area, but as discussed with SPC uncertainity in regards to how long the high wind potential will last as it will outrun the 50-60 kt 850 mb jet which...and instability will become increasingly elevated. HRRR past couple runs have area of t-storms increasing in width and less of a line as it moves into central ND past Bismarck and therefore less wind threat. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 This afternoon and evening... A line of rain showers continues to moves across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this afternoon. There is very little instability in the environment the lines is moving into so thunderstorms are not expected. There could however still be an isolated thunderstorm farther south in the Red River Valley where the atmosphere is more unstable. Saturday night into Sunday morning... Later tonight additional thunderstorm development is expected as a shortwave moves into the Northern Plains. A strong LLJ combined with high precipitable water ranging from 1 to 1.5 inches will provide an environment favorable from rain. When combined with MU CAPE values between 1500 and 2500 J/kg and bulk shear values around 50 knots some strong to severe thunderstorms are also expected. While the best chances for significant severe convection remains to the south and west in western ND and SD some of these storms could continue into eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota overnight. If these storms do make it this far north and east they will likley be in some form of linear system or MCS with wind as the main threat. With the high precipitable water heavy rain will also be a threat, but with dry soils the main flooding threat would be in urban areas. Sunday afternoon into Sunday night... An hot an moist environment will be present with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s combined with precipitable water values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. These precipitable water values are between the 90th percentile and max in NAEFS R-Climate so this is a very moist environment for this time of year in the Northern Plains. Hot and moist conditions lead to high instability and CAPE with MU CAPE in some CAMs reaching well into the 4000 to 5500 J/kg range. This unstable environment combined with an approaching warm front and bulk shear of 40 to 60 knots creates an environment favorable for all modes of severe weather. The high CAPE environment helps lead to high hail index values suggest large hail will be possible. With surface to 1 km SRH also high in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range and generally low LCLs tornadoes will be possible. Also with the environment favorable for supercells very high winds will also be a threat. There have been some variations between different ensemble systems and CAMs to there remains some doubt as to where the greatest chances will occur in our region. There is enough confidence however to state the thunderstorms, likely severe, will be present on Sunday and into Sunday night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Monday-Saturday...Model guidance in decent agreement with the overall pattern, with southwest flow aloft gradually transitioning to northwest flow aloft and then ridging toward the weekend. Active weather to start the period will become much quieter (drier) by mid- week into the weekend. Temperatures will also be much cooler. With that all said, the most uncertainty exists at the beginning half of the period as the track of the tropical depression will dominate what happens across this region. The main impacts will be severe thunderstorm potential Monday afternoon, and then heavy rain/excessive rainfall potential into Tuesday. The 12z ECMWF tracks the tropical depression further west (and brings more rainfall further west) compared to other guidance. Although this is still an outlier scenario, it indicates the uncertainty that still exists. At any rate, a strong baroclinic zone with a cold front pushing eastward will bring severe thunderstorm chances Monday evening (where the front is set up), and then a prolonged period of moderate precipitation into Tuesday (with the area and duration of the moderate precipitation dependent on the track of the tropical depression). Excessive rainfall potential will also be dependent on what happens before Monday (if heavy rainfall saturates the soils). && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A series of convective rain bands will work across the FA from southwest to northeast during the early evening... in advance of stronger convection expected during the overnight period. Generally VFR conditions are expected outside of showers this evening, with southeast surface winds gusting from 15 to 30 kts. During the overnight period and into early Sunday morning expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms with areas of MVFR conditions in heavy rain and strong gusty winds. This should lift through eastern ND from 06z through 10z, and through northwest and west central MN from 09z through 15z. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again late Sunday afternoon into the early evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM...TG AVIATION...Gust
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
749 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .DISCUSSION... Evening update... Severe thunderstorm watch is up for most of the area until midnight MDT. Made an attempt to time the progression of the rain as it moves across the area this evening and tonight. While the greatest instability is well to our east, looking at the HRRR updraft helicity swaths it looks like it could be a long night across the CWA. Meanwhile, the RAP wants to turn up the 850mb winds overnight in the eastern CWA, too. With 1.22" on the 0z sounding breaking the previous 0z June 7 daily max (was 1.17" from the SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page), felt ok with adding heavy rainfall qualifier to the forecast overnight tonight. Now, it`s wait-and-see time: we`re primed for a lot of rain, wind, and hail. 97 Previous discussion... AFTERNOON UPDATE: Majority of the larger changes to the forecast took place with the first 3 days of the forecast. With the tonight period having the heavier edits. Temperatures were trimmed back several degrees for this afternoon with the stratus shield having no end in sight looking south. In fact, radar echos that were previously not in several locations of the model data have begun forming up in the stratus bands. This diabatic cooling effects may be able to further remove the edge from any surface based storms that happen this evening. If a mid-level jet kicks in later this evening there may be a possibility for elevated convection with a few severe characteristics due to higher bulk shear. But, CAPE with successive runs of the NAM Soundings has been in rapid decrease and becoming a far more skinny profile for many points in northeast Montana. So, there`s much less potential lift energy to work with now. Sunday through Monday: With flow aloft turning southwest showers with a few thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through Monday. Temperatures will drop on Monday and this trend should maintain through mid-week though shower chances leveling off some in that same mid-week time frame. GAH 900AM UPDATE: Update for morning hours was limited to blending in satellite and surface wind fields into the next 6 hours. Looking at an assessment for later today, large stratus-shield exists across eastern Montana into northern Wyoming and this is having a strong decreased affect on insolation. Current NAM doesn`t even mix out the lower inversion completely for today till 6PM due to the loss of radiational heating from Glasgow to Glendive. This produces a large cap that will need to be eroded into the evening before storms can get going. With the loss of surface heating to couple up with mid-level lift, storms are more likely to become elevated and less organized through the early evening with peak severe threat probably occuring around 5 to 9PM if there is severe at all. HREF Updraft helicity is also appearing to put only weak rotation with storms at these times. GAH MORNING DISCUSSION: A thunderstorm from higher terrain over central Montana had moved across the northern counties of Northeast Montana last night that produced quarter sized hail and strong winds over north central Valley county. The storm had fragmented into an established cluster of pulse storms that are currently situated over the northeastern counties and are expected to stick around until later this morning with the low level jet. The upper ridge is headed east this morning as a low pressure system to the west, along with a shortwave from the southwestern US, moves into northeastern Montana today. A surface pressure gradient is currently oriented over the area and is expected to tighten as the low approaches. Some mesonet observations are reporting gusty winds this morning with widespread 40 knots with a couple gusting to the upper 50s kts at Beaver Hill and pushing 70 kts at Sioux Pass. Expect winds to increase this morning and gusty winds will persist throughout the day. The Lake Wind Advisory has been extended until 11PM. The low is expected to arrive by the early afternoon from the southwest and warm frontal precipiation chances will begin to increase as it treks northeastward. Low to midlevel southeasterly wind will draw moist air into the Yellowstone River Valley. Temperatures last night remained warmer than expected and with many models having temperatures in the lower 80s, the GFS is slightly warmer and the RAP is much more ambitious with highs into the 90s. Dew points are slow to increase, but may get into the 60s later today. Plenty of instability with CAPE values from around 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Some dry slotting from the south late today and a stubborn inversion cap will slowly erode and may delay thunderstorms into the early evening and overnight hours. Once thunderstorms are able to initiate, they could potentially become severe with large hail and damaging winds. The highest all hazard severe potential will be more likely in the southeastern corner. Will plenty of available moisture and precipitable water to around an inch or more, any strong to severe thunderstorms could produce locally heavy downpours and concerns for flash flooding. Any camping and recreation on the lake can be hazardous today due to gusty winds in addition to hazards associated with severe thunderstorms that develop. There will be brief break from precipitation Sunday morning followed by a cold front that will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, some severe south of the Missouri River and along the Yellowstone River Valley. These storms however, are not expected to be as energetic as the storms expected later today. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday afternoon. A ridge will emerge again around midweek bringing dry weather and seasonal temperatures. A low may follow along at the end of the week. Roxy && .AVIATION... LLWS: There is a chance for low level wind shear from 03 to 12Z tonight at KSDY and KGDV. FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR DISCUSSION: Look for increasing chances for widespread thunderstorms in the late afternoon that will last through the overnight hours. A low pressure system will be responsible for the shift in winds tonight. MVFR conditions will be possible with storms this evening into overnight from 03 to 15Z at KGGW and KOLF north. WIND: E-SE 10-20 kts with higher gusts (especially near storms) shifting to the W-SW by sunrise. W-SW winds on Sunday 10-20 kts, decreasing to 5-10 kts late in the day. W-NW winds 5-10 kts on Sunday night. 97/GAH && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until noon MDT Sunday For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley... Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$
National Weather Service Hastings NE
718 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Convection from this morning has pretty much dissipated with the decrease in speed of the low-level jet as it moved out of the CWA. We are squarely in the warm sector and although we decouple somewhat, we will still retain a bit of a gust out of the south. Went more toward CONSRAW for lows, which keep up temps a bit. With the theta-e ridge nearby, I was a little hesitant to go completely dry tonight, considering what happened this morning, so I did go with some small POPs in our west late tonight. There is enough MUCAPE for severe weather, favoring marginally severe hail if anything. CONSMOS and RAP wind gusts support quite a windy day as soundings indicate steepening low-level lapse rates. Wind gusts of at least 40 kts will be probable for much of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 One big issue for the long term is for Monday afternoon and night as the cold front approaches. The slow movement of this front may encourage training of cells, which could lead to some localized flooding. Severe storm parameters could give us some severe weather as well. The other notable issue will be the cool-down behind the front as numerical models are consistently indicating an anomalously cool period during mid week. Cool and possibly cloudy conditions with strong cold air advection for this time of year, could have us struggling to get into the 70s for highs on Tuesday. Upper level ridging will keep the forecast dry from Wednesday afternoon through the rest of the long term forecast, with temperatures on a mild warming trend toward the end of the forecast time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 The primary aviation concern will continue to center around the strong low level wind shear that is expected to develop this evening as the low level jet strengthens and will persist until a few hours after sunrise. Most of the thunderstorms should remain west and northwest of our TAF sites tonight, but will have to keep an eye on how thunderstorms track across the area tonight. Sunday will be another windy day across the region. VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to continue. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Heinlein LONG TERM...Heinlein AVIATION...Wesely
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
750 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .UPDATE.../through Tonight/... The region will be between high pressure to the east, and tropical storm Cristobal over the central Gulf Tonight. Moisture will continue to stream into the region between these features. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding, will continue to be a possibility through the night especially inland NE FL. A few strong to severe storms possible as well. Have had a few cells with rotation in them this afternoon, and expect this potential to continue, so can not rule out an isolated tornado. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Monday] Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected through this period with restrictions. && .PREV DISCUSSION [313 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [through Sunday]... A flash flood watch has been issued through Sun evening for our western FL zones as widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall overspreads NE FL from the south. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place (PWAT 2.5") with the area on the east side of TS Cristobal as the storm approaches the LA Gulf Coast through Sun afternoon. Waves of moderate to heavy rainfall with isolated embedded tstorms will continue to pivot northward into the evening, then tonight anticipate a more solid band of moderate to heavy rainfall developing across north Florida as low level convergence increases between a lifting frontal zones across south -central FL and a persistent low level ridge axis holding firm just north of the Altamaha River basin. This ridge will limit the northward extend/expansion of the convective band into Sun, and generally focus a W-E oriented swath of heavy rainfall generally near and south of the I-10 corridor late tonight into Sunday morning. Please refer to the below `Hydrology` section for rainfall outlook. Ridge strengthens north of the Altamaha Region Sun afternoon, shunting corridor of heavy rain SSW toward the I-75 corridor of NE FL with drier mid level air (700-500 mb) decreasing rain chances across SE GA and eastern NE FL into Sun evening. In addition to heavy rainfall potential, there will be a low tornado threat for NE FL into the evening with elevated 0-1 km shear values 20-25 kts with low level ESE winds under increasing SSW winds out of the GOMEX, with speeds increasing to 35-45 kts at 850 mb through 06z. Cloudy skies, and warm humidity ESE to S flow will continue into with daytime highs below normal in the 70s to low 80s and muggy nighttime lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. .SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday]... Mon...A weak pressure pattern in place across the local area as the remnant low of Cristobal tracks northward across the lower MS river valley and the 1000-700 mb ridge centers builds from the Bahamas Mon and then over N FL into Tuesday. A ribbon of tropical moisture (PWAT over 2") will rotate across our GA zones and toward the Atlantic coast into Mon evening as steering flow weakens and back slightly SSW between the low to our WNW and the ridge to the SSE. This pattern will shift morning convection across our western Gulf Coast zones across SE GA and toward the Atlantic coast into the afternoon and evening. Main convective hazard will be locally heavy rainfall with deep moisture and slow motion over the region. High temperatures will trend below normal in the low/mid 80s with muggy lows in the 70s. Tue...Very slow storm motion under the mean layer 1000-700 mb ridge and lingering high moisture (PWAT 1.8-2 inches) will continue high rain chances over the local area, but with a more diurnal sea breeze regime expected with both sea breezes developing along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast, merging inland between Highway 301 and I-75 into the late afternoon and early evening. Very warm temps aloft with lack of strong forcing will limit severe storm strength, but will continue the localized heavy rainfall threat and increase the potential of convective wet downbursts in stronger cells given more diurnal instability. Temperatures will warm into the low 90s inland given less morning cloud cover. Precip will gradually fade in coverage inland and intensity into Tue night with linger clouds keep lows mild in the low 70s. An approaching weak front from the NE will maintain a low chance of mainly coastal showers and isolated tstorms through Wed morning. .LONG TERM [Wed through Sat]... Wed & Thu...Elevated rain chances continue across the local area with deep tropical moisture (PWAT over 2") lingering over the region. A `backdoor` cold front/trough axis is expected to shift inland along the local Atlantic coast early Wed, with morning showers and isolated tstorms shifting inland into the afternoon and evening hours. This trough axis will converge with a southward moving trough across GA Wed night into Thu, with elevated rain chances continued across SE GA into Thu morning. A passing mid level short wave trough will enhance convection across inland areas Thu afternoon into Thu evening with a few stronger storms possible given the enhanced forcing aloft with the main t`storm hazards this period localized flooding rainfall potential and wet downbursts due to precip loading. High temperatures will trend near to below normal in the low/mid 80s given abundant cloud cover and rain chances this period. Low temperatures will trend near to above normal in the 70s. Fri & Sat...Drier air finally begins to filter across the region from the WNW as a mean layer mid/upper level trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. PWAT content returns back toward climo values in the 1.4.-1.6 inch range Fri with the linger surface front across south GA. This front, combined with forcing from the sea breezes and cooler temps aloft in the -7 to -9 degC range under the deepening upper trough could bring a better chance of a few stronger storms especially during the afternoon and evening, although overall storm coverage will trend downward. Most convection fades Fri evening with loss of diurnal heating, however, a low chance of precip will continue across SE GA through Sat morning where surface front will finally begin to edge farther south. Sat morning into Sat afternoon, the front is expected to shift south across NE FL with a drier airmass expected Sat night as PWAT content falls below normal values (less than 1 inch) trailing the frontal passage with a deep layer WNW flow over the local area. High temperatures will trend back toward normal values in the upper 80s to near 90 as deep moisture decreases with low temperatures generally cooling back toward normal values in the mid 60s inland to low 70s coast. .MARINE... Tropical Storm Cristobal will track northward toward the central Gulf of Mexico Coast through Sunday with high pressure offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact the local waters through Sunday. South winds will increase tonight and Sunday to marginal Small Craft Exercise Caution levels over the outer waters with speeds 15-20 kts. Headlines are not expected beyond Sun night with an extended period of SSE winds expected. High pressure builds across south Florida Monday and Tuesday. A weak trough will move across the local waters from the east Wednesday and merge with a front across south Georgia. This front will linger across the region Thursday and Friday. RIP CURRENTS: Low Risk SE GA beaches today. Moderate risk NE FL beaches today. Moderate risk for all beaches expected Sunday. Low to marginally moderate risk of rips expected Mon-Tue given weak winds. Elevated rip current risk returns Wed due to stronger onshore flow. .FIRE WEATHER... Persistent moderate to heavy rainfall with isolated embedded thunderstorms will move south to north across the forecast area through tonight and linger into Sunday across NE FL with low daytime dispersion due to light winds and cloud cover. Rainfall accumulations will generally range from 3-5 inches across NE Florida through Sunday afternoon, with isolated higher amounts. Rainfall amounts decrease across southeast Georgia with less than 1 inch total expected near the Altamaha River basin. Warmer, moist southerly flow continues Monday with the highest coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon. .HYDROLOGY... Persistent, moderate to heavy rain shield will overspread the local area from south to north through Sunday morning. Latest consensus guidance continued to indicate widespread rainfall totals through the next 24 hrs of 2-4 inches mainly south of the I-10 corridor with locally higher amounts certainly possible especially across the Suwannee River Valley and near the I-75 corridor. Recent CAMs including the HRRR, RAP and Nested NAM have localized 6-9 inches through midday Sunday across parts of the Suwannee River Valley. Issued a Flood Watch for our western tier FL zones through Sunday evening, with localized flooding potential for vulnerable urban areas including Jacksonville, Orange Park and St. Augustine. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 80 72 88 72 / 60 70 30 70 20 SSI 73 79 74 86 75 / 70 70 30 50 20 JAX 71 79 72 89 74 / 90 90 30 60 20 SGJ 72 77 72 87 73 / 90 90 40 60 20 GNV 72 79 72 88 72 / 90 90 60 70 20 OCF 73 80 72 88 72 / 90 90 60 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Central Marion- Eastern Alachua-Eastern Marion-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Western Alachua-Western Marion. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 The thunderstorm forecast tonight and again Sunday afternoon follows the short term model blend plus the NAMnest which was fairly aggressive with the storm activity advancing east through wrn Nebraska tonight and redeveloping farther east and south Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms formed this morning and this afternoon in the warm sector along and north of a advancing warm front. This storm activity will lift north into SD this afternoon and present a strongly capped atmosphere across much of ncntl and southwest Nebraska tonight. The forecast allows for isolated severe storms in the warm sector across swrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon and this evening. One or two clusters of strong to severe storms should move through western Nebraska late this afternoon and this evening also. The CAMS and SPC suggests wind damage and large hail will be the primary threat. This storm activity should begin to weaken around 03z this evening. The CAMs show storm motions of 60 mph but the RAP model soundings show the Bunkers right moving storm motion much slower near 35 mph and just the left moving storm motion near 50 mph. All of this storm activity should begin to weaken around 03z this evening according to the NAMnest and redevelop Sunday afternoon farther east near highway 83. The forecast leans on the NAMnest Sunday afternoon allowing for storms to form south of Interstate 80 across swrn Nebraska. This storm activity should also weaken early in the evening Sunday. This forecast is close to the SPC day two severe weather outlook. Wind fields aloft relative to the instability appear to be quite strong across srn Nebraska suggesting isolated storm development there. To the north, MLCAPE near 3000J/KG and midlevel winds around 50kts will support scattered supercells. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 WPC suggested a flood risk across ncntl Nebraska Monday associated with a stalled Pacific cold front, strong winds aloft and precipitable water near 1.5 inches. The key to this forecast would be the location of the front which could be a bit farther east or west depending on the upper level forcing and convection events tonight and Sunday. SPC suggested a severe weather threat in the same area. Storm development is possible ahead, along and behind the front. This weather system should be clear of wrn and ncntl Nebraska with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms associated with cold air aloft. The forecast Wednesday through Saturday is dry. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A powerful squall line underway across Wyoming and Colorado this evening will sweep into wrn Nebraska and weaken near highway 83 around midnight. VFR is expected from 08z tonight through 21z Sunday across all of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and near highway 83 beginning 21z Sunday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...CDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
957 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .Forecast Update... Issued at 955 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Tranquil conditions exist across central KY and south-central IN at this time. Earlier convective band over eastern KY that almost clipped Nicholas County has moved away. Expect a clear/mostly clear night. Latest ASOS and KY Mesonet obs show a muggy late evening in process with surface dewpoints still in the upper 60s to mid 70s, but drier air is now infiltrating northern KY and extends back into central IN. Lower dewpoint air will gradually sink into our northern forecast area overnight, although higher dewpoints remaining over south-central KY could cause patchy fog, especially in river valleys. Current forecast handles this well. Expect quiet weather overnight. With surface high pressure across the upper OH Valley on Sunday, expect a nice weather day - quite warm but a little cooler than today plus noticeably lower humidity, plenty of sunshine, and an east to northeast breeze. Enjoy the day. && .Short Term...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s and low 90s across the area, under mostly sunny skies. SDF has reached 92 so far, with a couple hours of heating still possible. 94 is the record at SDF from 2008, and it is not out of the question that we can tie that. BWG/LEX records won`t be reachable today. Otherwise, the only other thing worth mentioning is that there is still a slight chance of a brief shower or storm in our far NE/E CWA between 7-9 PM EDT. The HRRR has been consistent showing development there early this evening, and given a pretty unstable airmass (2500- 3000 J/KG) amidst a weak cap think there is enough confidence to keep the small/short-lived pop there. In addition, there appears to be a weak wave dropping SE through our area around the time. Upstream over eastern IL/western IN a few showers have popped amid what appears to be a batch of ACCAS on satellite imagery. These are associated with some slightly steeper mid level lapse rates (SPC mesoanalysis) and this could be just enough of a trigger in our NE around the time the HRRR also suggests some brief activity. Expect a clear and dry overnight into Sunday with slightly "cooler" temps topping out in the low to mid 80s in most spots. Temps around 90 are still possible down by BWG. There will also be a notable drop off in dew points, especially across the northern CWA where some upper 50s will feel quite nice compared to the low 70s Td`s we had earlier today. Lastly, did put some patchy fog for late tonight/Sunday morning down around Lake Cumberland where low level moisture won`t be as scoured out by the weak front. Look for lows in the low 60s north to upper 60s south tonight. .Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 Fair weather continues Sunday night and Monday with a 591 dam mid level ridge building east over the Ohio Valley. Sfc high pressure is forecast to drift from the Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, Cristobal will begin to accelerate and move NNW over Louisiana and Arkansas on the western periphery of the ridge. Skies Sunday night will remain clear over our neck of the woods with lows in the low to mid 60s. The cirrus shield from the tropical system will arrive on Monday, thickening from south to north Monday afternoon into Monday night. Despite 850 mb temps near 20 C on Monday, low level thicknesses are pretty similar to today (Saturday). So went with solid upper 80s and lower 90s for highs. If any area were to touch the mid 90s, Metro Louisville is the best candidate. Cristobal should make the extratropical transition on Tuesday, with the center of the storm moving north through Missouri. Rich tropical moisture will continue to be transported northward over the mid- Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. The heaviest rainfall and greater risk for flash flooding will be off to our west in far western KY, IL, and MO. But we do see more of an open wave in the mid levels swing northeast over the region on Tuesday, along with an increasing southerly LLJ. Expect scattered showers and storms and breezy conditions, with very efficient rainfall production/high rainfall rates. Showers and storms may become more numerous at times west of I-65. Highs will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. A large upper trough over the western US early next week eventually absorbs the remnants of Cristobal over the Upper Midwest by Wednesday of next week. The system is likely to restrengthen into a strong mid latitude cyclone over Wisconsin and Lake Superior, pushing a cold front across the area from west to east on Wednesday. Therefore, only expect highs in the low to mid 80s Wednesday with westerly winds bringing in cooler, less humid air heading into Wednesday night. Medium range ensemble guidance supports upper troughing/northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc to close out the work week. Confidence in the details is still fairly low, but this generally looks cooler and drier at this time. 50s to low 60s for lows and upper 70s to mid 80s for highs are reasonable. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Isolated clouds this evening will dissipate after sunset, with a clear sky overnight and surface winds becoming N to NE around 5 kts. On Sunday, high pressure at the surface will move into the upper OH Valley resulting in an E to NE surface breeze up to 10 kts along with a few high level cirrus clouds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update.......TWF Short Term...BJS Long Term....EBW Aviation.....TWF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
549 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SHORT TERM...Rest of Today through Sunday night Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 A circulation is seen moving through Utah. This low will be tracking northeast to central Wyoming by 00Z Sunday. This low and associated negatively tilted trough is actually circulating within a larger circulation around a main low off the Pacific Northwest coast and associated long wave trough. Early morning thunderstorms have already erupted across southwest Wyoming ahead of the approaching aforementioned shortwave over the Great Basin. Pinedale has just recently reported a thunderstorm with heavy rain at the time of this writing. RKS just reported a thunderstorm with 66 mph wind gusts. This activity appears to be elevated convection, embedded within a larger area of stratiform rainfall according to area web cams and satl loops, given the synoptic scale dynamics associated with this weather feature. Left-front quad dynamics associated with the small jet streak tied within this shortwave, along with QG forcing, are the main forcing mechanisms. As this large area of clouds and showers shifts northeast to central Wyoming, central Wyoming should experience a delay in sfc heating and a weakening in surface based convection through midday. Meanwhile, our east and northeast zones, including Natrona and Johnson counties, should get a head start on the convection around midday. SPC has placed central and eastern Sweetwater County, southeast Fremont, and the southeast 2/3 of Natrona County in a slight risk of severe weather for today. The rest of the entire CWA is in a marginal risk. The models appear to give our southeast zones the greatest potential for heavy precip today with 3 hourly half inch increments of precip. PW values are roughly an inch across the east half of the CWA today, which is down from an inch and a quarter from earlier runs. Lifted indices are progged to be between -3.5 to -4 in the far west today and in the northeast zones. CAPE will be up to 1400 J/KG in many portions of the CWA. The long and short of it is, we could see significant convective activity all around our CWA today at some point, with perhaps the weakest convection right in the middle of our CWA in places like the Wind River Basin. The timing for convection inhibiting cloudiness will have to be closely tracked today. One could argue the HRRR indicates 4 waves of convection tracking from the southwest to northeast today, with each one weakening as it encounters the more stable air over central Wyoming. The main defining feature with today`s convective cells should be very strong winds, as we have already seen at RKS, given the 60 knot winds progged at 700mb this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and some small hail with a few cells are also expected. Tonight, the cold front associated with this initial shortwave will filter in the first of the cold air from the west. Numerous showers will continue tonight. After the first shortwave exits northeast, showers will begin to mainly focus over western Wyoming ahead of the next main Pacific Northwest low. As the cooler air begins to filter in behind the first shortwave, snow levels will descend down to 8500 feet in the west tonight. On Sunday, the left-front quad of the main jet streak will encourage more lift across the area, as well as western Wyoming getting assistance from QG forcing, as the Pacific Northwest low opens up as an open wave over the Great Basin, and a new main circulation reforms to the north over southern Canada. The most numerous shower activity will take place in western Wyoming, with scattered showers moving east to areas east of the Divide. There will be enough instability for some afternoon thunderstorm activity as well, with very gusty winds given the tight gradient, and small hail with the lowering freezing level/lowering wet bulb temperatures. Then on Sunday night, the reinforcing cold front behind this main trough will arrive as a classic katafront, with the coldest 700mb air nosing right into Wyoming behind the Canadian low. Surface 3- hourly post frontal pressure rises will be on the order of 9-11mb east of the Divide Sunday evening, so we can expect one more blast of wind with the frontal passage. Showers will continue, most numerous in the west, with snow levels descending down to the valley floors in the Jackson Valley by 12Z Monday. Even areas east of the Divide could see snow showers as low as 6000 feet, although shower activity will not be as widespread in these areas. The Jackson Valley could see less than a half inch of snow by 12Z Monday, with a few inches in the surrounding western mountains. As far as river flooding potential is concerned, along with the heavier precip expected, temperatures will also be falling as well, so it does not appear that significant rises will occur, given the ongoing falling stages at most sites .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 The medium-range portion of the forecast begins with northwest flow across western and central Wyoming. Trough axis will extend north-south through the forecast area Monday, with plenty of moisture within the upper flow. Widespread showers will persist along and west of the Continental Divide. To the east, the Big Horn Basin, and to a lesser extent the far southwest, will have the best chance for scattered or better coverage. Expect afternoon and early evening gusty northwest wind for many areas. Precipitation and cloud cover will decrease from west to east Monday night. This could set the stage for freezing or near freezing temperatures for many lower elevation locations. Better clearing and higher elevation will almost certainly lead to sub- freezing lows in the western valleys. The east will be a closer call and cloud cover is likely to be the primary player. There could be a few lingering showers over the northwest mountains Tuesday, otherwise drier conditions and the beginning of a warm trend are on tap for Tuesday. The gusty northwest afternoon and evening wind is likely to linger Tuesday. Flat ridge then begins to build Wednesday. This ridge will gradually amplify through the remainder of the week, as the next long wave trough digs along the West Coast. Mid-level temperatures rise to +13 to +16 by Friday and Saturday, so a return to above normal temperatures is not far off. There could be some late day weak convection over the northwest by Saturday, but for the most part the late week pattern will be dry. Southwest Wyoming could see elevated fire weather concerns by Friday and Saturday, as the southwest wind cranks up and humidity levels drop back into the teens. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals The ongoing showers and storms will continue into the evening, with a downturn in intensity expected by sunset Saturday. MVFR conditions will still be prevalent, especially at KJAC. Showers will continue through around 08Z at KJAC, KBPI and KPNA, before becoming isolated. KJAC will have the best chance for persistent MVFR conditions overnight, as early Sunday morning showers are most likely there. Other terminals should see improving conditions by 12Z, which will linger through the morning. Convection, albeit not as strong as today, will increase by early afternoon with occasional MVFR conditions. Gusty southerly wind, especially at KRKS, will diminish late tonight before increasing toward midday Sunday. Surface wind will veer to the west and increase later Sunday afternoon as a cold front pushes east. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals Expect mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Localized IFR/MVFR conditions are possible, mainly until 03Z, in association with stronger convection. Southwest surface wind with gusts 25-35kts will persist into the early evening hours, before gradually decreasing by 06Z. Outflow wind from daytime convection will continue to pose a hazard to aviation through 03Z, as gusts of 45kts or more are possible. The coverage and intensity of showers and storms will decrease by 06Z, but lingering light showers will be possible at KCOD and KWRL. Southwest to west wind will increase at all terminals Sunday afternoon, as a cold front prepares to cross the forecast area. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued AT 110 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020 The first of two storm systems is moving across the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening, before decreasing in coverage and intensity, especially east of the Continental Divide. However, the showers will linger across the far west overnight ahead of a second weather system. This second storm system over the Pacific Northwest will slowly track east and produce more widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday across western Wyoming. Coverage will be less widespread east of the Divide. Wetting rain and even mountain snow above 8000 or 9000 feet is likely across the west and southwest Sunday and Monday. This second system will push a cold front through western areas late tonight, make little progress Sunday, and then make its way east through all of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon and night. The overall trend will be toward much cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday, particularly across the Teton and Yellowstone dispatch areas. Temperatures will moderate toward midweek with very warm readings by Friday. Drier weather is anticipated Wednesday through Friday. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lipson LONG TERM...CNJ AVIATION...CNJ/LaVoie FIRE WEATHER...CNJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
814 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slides across this evening and will be south of the area late tonight. High pressure builds in with less humid air for Sunday into Monday. Humidity and rain chances increase with a front by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... NAM Nest and HRRR so far have hit the nail on the head with the convection firing off in WV and then traveling SE into our area. If these CAMs remain true to their word, storms could stay together until the start to reach the Lynchburg, Roanoke, NRV before loosing most of their gusto. From there, they will be more generalized showers. This guidance seems true given the amount of CAPE sitting out at the moment that needs to be used up. Because of this, POPs have been changed through the early evening to bring this line through. After the storms pass, expect areas that received rain to develop fog, especially lower valley areas. Sky conditions quickly recover with much drier air aloft behind these storms. As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... Upper ridge will stay situated west of us Sunday, with a trough offshore. At the surface high pressure builds southward from the Great Lakes. Expect lower humidity but temps will stay warm in the upper 70s to lower 80s west, to mid to upper 80s east. Forecast confidence is low on coverage of storms this evening, as some models showing a little more over WV/Alleghanys while others are isolated. Forecast the rest of the period is high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM EDT Saturday... TS Cristobal will move onshore near the mouth of the Mississippi Sunday night, heading north-northwest into Arkansas and weakening as a depression by Monday evening. High pressure will set up from the Northern Mid-Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, while ridge aloft strengthens. A surface boundary will be stretched across the Gulf Coast states, but overall appears dry weather in store into at least Tuesday morning, then moisture advection increases Tuesday with a few showers and storms possible in the mountains late in the afternoon and evening. Sunday night looks the coolest with lows in the 50s most locations, except around 60 southeast around Danville/Reidsville, and upper 40s in the mountain valleys like Burkes Garden. Staying warm Monday with slight uptick in humidity but still drier than what we have now. High temps will be mainly in the 80s. Tuesday looks like Monday on highs, but humidity increases. Still expect mostly sunny days, Monday-Tuesday barring any mid-high clouds moving in from Cristobal. Forecast confidence is high for this forecast period, except low on the storm chances Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... An area of high pressure along the east coast will finally move offshore Wednesday. With high pressure out of the region, a cold front will move over the area starting Wednesday. If this high pressure system remains off the coast into Friday, there is a chance that the front will stall across the area. At this time, models agree that the front will slowly move over the region and to the coast Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the front, drier cooler conditions can be expected with temperatures returning to normal levels. What will be more noticable will be the drop in humidity as dew points fall into the 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 815 PM EDT Saturday... Convection has fired up along the front that is entering the area. Models indicate that this line should hold itself together long enough to bring showers and thunderstorms to LWB, ROA, LYH, BCB, and possibly BLF. By the time they reach DAN, they will have substantially weakened. After the rain, its very likely fog will settle in for the valleys and areas that receive rain this evening. For now, LWB will be the area that gets the thickest fog. After sunrise tomorrow, fog mixes out and dry air enters the area, resulting in VFR conditions settling in for the remainder of the forecast period Extended Aviation Discussion... Dry high pressure will then build across the region with a period of mainly VFR for Sunday through Tuesday. May see a few storms arrive Wednesday ahead of a front. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...RR/WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...RR/WP