Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 06/01/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1050 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Will allow the severe thunderstorm watch to expire. A few stronger storms remain possible, but the main severe weather window has closed. UPDATE Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Thus far all shower/storm activity in ND has remained across the southwest. This area of convection is projected to continue to move easterly along the ND/SD border and as far north as I94 over the next several hours. Mid level forcing interacting with the sfc trough across eastern Montana has resulted in thunderstorm development there, and is projected to continue east into western ND over the next 1-2 hours. Overall used a blend of the HRRR/RAP/ConsSHORT, but also had to speed the eastward movement a tad with current activity outpacing models by around an hour or so. Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect, and will reassess over the next 45 min whether to let it go, which is likely as the overall severe threat decreases. UPDATE Issued at 804 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Have allowed the wind advisory across northwest ND to expire as scheduled at 01Z. UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 The forecast for this evening remains on track. Severe thunderstorm watch number 238 remains in effect for the southwest. Thunderstorms continue to move northeast across southeastern Montana, and are projected to enter southwest ND between 00-01Z. At this time, one severe storm tracking east of Miles City, showing signs of being supercellular, taking a right mover track more easterly versus northeast. Still some uncertainty on the overall storm coverage across western ND with forcing aloft not that impressive. Will maintain the wind advisory as is but should be able to let it expire within the next hour. UPDATE Issued at 511 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for portions of southwest North Dakota. Will update all products to reflect this. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 The main concern for the short term period is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in western North Dakota this evening. An upper level ridge axis sits over the Northern Plains early this afternoon, with a 30-40 kt low level jet underneath. Surface analysis shows high pressure over the Great Lakes and a deepening low in southern Alberta. This setup has resulted in windy conditions across the region. The strongest winds have been in northwest North Dakota, where sustained wind speeds over 30 mph have routinely been reported. A Wind Advisory is in effect for that area until 8 PM CDT. Mid level shortwave troughing will move into eastern Montana late this afternoon as a surface trough sharpens attendant to the southern Alberta surface low. The presence of additional forcing in the form of low level frontogenesis is forecast across eastern Montana. Most guidance agrees that convective initiation will occur in eastern Montana late this afternoon, though some of the forcing mechanisms appear a bit disjointed spatially. Additionally, recent guidance suggests convective inhibition will be much weaker across eastern Montana than originally thought, owing to a greater likelihood of convective initiation given the forcing that is forecast to be present. There is still some on uncertainty on exactly where convective initiation may occur, but there is a notable trend in more recent guidance to shift low level forcing as far east as the ND/MT border by late afternoon. This can be seen, for example, in RAP 0-1 km moisture flux divergence and theta-e fields. However, there is greater convective inhibition and less mid level forcing the farther east you go. This further contributes to the uncertainty in the overall outcome of this event. Surface based storms that develop will be in an environment characterized by dewpoints around 60 F, CAPE around 2000 J/kg, and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear, according to the HREF ensemble mean. Shear vectors oriented nearly perpendicular to the surface trough suggest a discrete mode will be favored initially, though cold pool processes and sustained forcing mechanisms may eventually lead to upscale growth into linear clusters downstream. A large hail threat is supported by the aforementioned instability and shear, storm mode, and relatively dry mid levels. A damaging wind threat is supported by high LCLs and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, as well as by any transition to a linear mode. There is general model consensus that at least isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to move across North Dakota overnight as the surface trough and mid level shortwave track eastward, though some of the more recent CAM runs have backed off on this solution, likely due to increasing MLCIN. Quiet and warm weather is expected on Monday as subsidence rebounds over the Northern Plains. Highs will mainly be in the 80s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Another mid level shortwave will approach western North Dakota Monday night. There is decent model consensus for overnight shower and thunderstorm development ahead of this wave, with forcing possibly being aided by increasing low to mid level moisture transport. If updrafts can take advantage of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE over southwest North Dakota, along with at least 40 kts effective bulk shear, storms could become severe, with large hail being the main threat. There is uncertainty on how much MLCIN will be present though, which will be largely dependent on inflow layer RH. This conditional severe threat may expand into south central North Dakota Tuesday morning as the shortwave continues to propagate eastward, but instability looks more marginal there. Farther north, scattered showers are possible Tuesday morning in association with stronger height falls, but there is expected to be little to no instability. Model guidance has trended away from broad upper level ridging to more of a zonal flow pattern late Tuesday through Thursday, with various disturbances passing through. This pattern shift has resulted in a slightly cooler temperature forecast through Thursday, though still near to above normal. Long range guidance appears to be converging on a solution that quickly builds upper level ridging over the Northern Plains heading into the weekend ahead of deepening longwave troughing over the Pacific Coast. This could signal the beginning of an active period next weekend, though deterministic models are exhibiting their known biases in the progressiveness of the pattern, with the GFS being much quicker to bring shortwave energy into the Northern Plains than the ECMWF. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There is a chance of thunderstorms in western ND this evening. This potential shifts into central ND overnight, but with decreasing probability. Left VCTS in the for KDIK, but opted to remove and go with VCSH for KXWA, KMOT, KBIS and KJMS. If a storm does happen to pass over a terminal, a brief period of MVFR/IFR visibility and sporadic wind gusts would be possible. Strong southeast winds around 20-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts will gradually decreasing this evening and overnight, with winds shifting to the northwest for Monday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...Hollan LONG TERM...Hollan AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
545 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 The environment across southwest Kansas will be very similar to the conditions yesterday evening. A surface boundary will be located near the Colorado border into northeast Kansas with weak shear and flow aloft. Late day and evening non severe convection near this boundary will once again be possible but any of these storms that do develop will move northeast and should not make it far enough east to crossing into Hamilton or Stanton counties. As for the chance for overnight convection much like last night north of K96...the RAP does hint that some elevated convection will be possible between 06z and 12z Monday east of highway 283. This may not be an unreasonable solution late tonight given the forecast mid level instability, weak 850mb-700mb moisture transport and location of the 10-12c 700mb temperature gradient. Will carry small <20% pops for convection tonight given that moisture and the warm air advection forecast tonight does not look as good as it did last night. The overnight cloud cover from any convection that does develop will give way to a sunny afternoon on Monday. Highs will once again climb into the mid 90s across southwest Kansas. As the warmer 850mb to 700mb temperatures air spreads east on Monday the highs in the Hays, Larned, Pratt and Medicine lodge area are expected to climb to around 90 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Models remain in good agreement with bringing only an increase in mid to high level moisture into central and portions of southwest Kansas Tuesday as an upper low slowly wobbles across north Texas and Oklahoma. GFS continues to hint at maybe a few sprinkles or a few light rain showers will be possible across south central Kansas Tuesday night. Main impact will be some clouds late Tuesday and the possibility of this keeping temperatures only in the lower 90s...mainly for south central Kansas. Across western Kansas the chance for afternoon clouds do not look very promising and based on the 850mb to 700mb forecast temperatures at 00z Wednesday the highs should easily climb into the mid 90s. The Southern Plains upper low will move slowly towards Arkansas and Missouri mid week as a series of upper level waves cross the Central Rockies and move out into the West Central High Plains. As each of these upper waves move east/southeast across the Central Plains along the mid level baroclinic zone Wednesday night and Thursday night there will be a chance for thunderstorms ahead of each of these upper waves. At this time however the GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly where this baroclinic zone will be located but this morning`s model run seems to be trending towards northern Kansas. Warmer 850mb to 700mb temperatures are currently forecast to spread across southwest late week with 700mb temperatures on Friday forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF to warm to around 15C. 850mb temperatures are also forecast to be between 3-5C warmer late week compared to the 00z Monday 850mb temperatures. This nice warmup continues to support highs climbing into the upper 90s late week and early this weekend with even the potential for a few locations in southwest Kansas to see highs around 100 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 540 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 VFR conditions will prevail for the entirety of the period for all TAF locations. Gusty south winds will diminish after sunset around 03Z to around 15kts overnight. By 15Z, the leeside trough over eastern Colorado will deepen due to diurnal trends mixing the low level jet winds to the surface gusting up to 30kts lasting through the end of the period through sunset once again. No other weather elements expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 92 63 94 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 62 93 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 62 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 61 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 65 93 65 94 / 20 0 0 0 P28 62 90 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Lowe
National Weather Service Hastings NE
959 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Updated the forecast to include slgt chc for tstms, mainly for areas along and E of Hwy 281. Hi-res models have hinted at this, though are a bit slow with the development. This activity appears to be tied to mid-level WAA as latest RAP forecast soundings indicate a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE from parcels based around H6-H7, with little to no CIN. Thus, this activity appears to independent of incr LLJ based closer to H85 per latest UEX VAD. This activity should be largely SE of the CWA by around 12Z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 We have a few sprinkles across the area south of I-80 this afternoon that are not being well resolved by the forecast models. The clouds are also a bit thicker and more widespread than had been indicated by most of our forecast models. Consequently, our afternoon highs will probably be a few degrees cooler than previously forecast. These sprinkles really should begin to disappear with the loss of afternoon heating by early evening. We then expect a generally quiet evening with perhaps some isolated shower redevelopment after midnight as low level jet really ramps up. Any showers late tonight, should be confined to an area southeast of the Tri-Cities. Monday...The upper level ridge will be centered over the plains, which means hot weather will make itself felt as highs climb to around 90 or the lower 90s. We expect more sunshine and the same gusty southerly winds. Southerly wind gusts will likely once again be around 30 mph from late morning through late afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Monday night through Wednesday... The upper level ridge will spell continued dry weather until it flattens out by a short wave Tuesday night. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night will be across our Nebraska zones. There will be a good deal of instability Tuesday evening even though wind shear will be rather marginal so we could see perhaps a marginal threat for severe weather. The frontal boundary will push south of us Tuesday night so we will be cooler and less windy north of the front on Wednesday. Wednesday night through Friday... We`ll have fairly zonal flow aloft while a sfc front slowly lifts back north through our area as a warm front. Wind shear will be very marginal with the upper jet stream well north of our area. The frontal boundary will be in the neighborhood so we could see some thunderstorms mainly along and north of this front as it lifts north across the area and stalls out at times before finally pushing all the way through. The severe weather threat appears rather minor given the marginal deep layer shear values. We`ll be in the cooler 80s on Wednesday but will start to warm back up into the lower 90s by Friday as that front lifts north. Saturday through Sunday... It currently appears like a hot weekend with southerly winds at the surface and a building upper level ridge aloft. Rain chances if any appear rather low. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday) Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 Significant wx: Low level wind shear (LLWS) tonight. Tonight: VFR. Main concern will be a strong jet (likely peaking around 55-55kt) leading to LLWS at both terminals beginning around 03Z. Expect periods of SCT clds around 15K ft. Can`t completely rule out an iso shwr/tstm, but only 10-20 percent chc so left out attm. Sfc winds will remain elevated at 12-17kt, w/ gusts 18-22kt, veering from the SE to SSW by dawn. Confidence: Medium to high. Mon: VFR. LLWS expected to mix out around 13Z as sfc winds once again incr. Expect peak SSW winds late morning thru early aftn at 15-20kt, w/ gusts 25-30kt. FEW to SCT high clds, at times. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Thies SHORT TERM...Wesely LONG TERM...Wesely AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Tonight-Monday night...low level convergence wind and moisture convergence is expected to be maximized roughly along a line extending from near McCook to Goodland and Kit Carson in the 5 PM MDT to 7 PM MDT timeframe shifting slightly west to a Trenton to Goodland and Cheyenne Wells line by 9 PM MDT based on the 15z RAP40. As convergence is maximized convective inhibition should erode enough to generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The primary threats will be wind gusts to 60 mph and hail below one inch in diameter. Given fairly slow storm motions some locally heavy rain is also possible. Mid level moisture continues to rotate into the area mentioned above after midnight around an upper level high pressure center located in southeast Kansas. Precipitation chances should come down fairly quickly leaving only some cloudiness. As precip chances do decrease some hints from the 15z and 17z HRRR suggest a heat burst type event possibly occurring based on relative humidity values below 20 percent, weak showers and localized potentially very strong wind gusts and much warmer temperatures compared to their surroundings in or around Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS) counties. Typically the 06z-09z timeframe has had these events happen over the years and the HRRR was suggesting one around 07z-08z. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s. For Monday and Monday night a similar scenario. Mid level moisture rotates into the northwest 1/2 of the area during time of peak heating supporting slight chance pops for thunderstorms through mid to late evening. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to upper 90s. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday...well see another chance for thunderstorms from late afternoon through about midnight as mid level moisture and a little better jet energy traverses east across the northern and western 1/2 of the forecast area. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Low temperatures again in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday...the upper flow has shifted to a more west/west-northwest flow around an upper high centered from Mexico toward the four corners. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, primarily across far eastern Colorado. High temperatures look to be a little "less hot" with readings in the mid 80s to low 90 .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 157 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Upper ridge will migrate from the desert southwest to start the period, across the souther plains and into the Mississippi River valley by the weekend. Proximity to the ridge will result in above to much above normal temperatures. Thunderstorm chances, while low, will be a daily occurrence in the afternoon and evening hours, with best chances in western areas where storms may move off the higher terrain of Colorado. Risk of severe chances will be low as well, hampered primarily by deep layer shear values forecast to be 20-25kts through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK terminals. Southerly winds at 15 to 20 knots, with gusts around 25 to 30 knots, are anticipated through the evening before winds become south-southwest and lighten overnight into early Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the start of the TAF period through about 03Z. However, confidence in storms directly impacting the terminals was too low to insert a mention at this time. If a storm did move across either terminal, sub vfr conditions could occur. Regardless, an increase in cloud cover can be expected this evening as storms develop in the region, followed by clearing through Monday morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JBH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Currently... A line of showers and storms were noted along a sfc trough over the plains from just SW of KLHX down towards KTAD. Isolated storms were noted over the mountains and higher terrain, with the most concentrated activity over the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Dewpts this afternoon are several degrees less than y`day at this time and there is no moisture boundaries noted over the plains. Temps are also a bit cooler with 80s to L90s over the lower elevations and about 80 or so in the larger valleys. Rest of Today and Tonight... Don`t expect the weather to be as active as yesterday given the lack of forcing and llvl moisture over the region, however we still will see scattered storms over the entire region, with the best activity expected in the Pikes Peak region mainly later this afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies over the area with generally light winds. The exception will be over the far southeast plains where gusty southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph will prevail. As for tonight...scattered storms should wind-down later this evening with min temps falling into the U50s and 60s plains...and 30s and 40s mtns/valleys. Tomorrow... Better moisture is expected to be over the ara tomorrow but flow goes very weak at all levels. Storms to should be a bit more widespread during the afternoon tomorrow but they are note going to move much. This may lead to an actual increasing in localized flash flooding, especially if storms plant themselves over a burn scar. In general, the majority of the guidance was indicating the best chance of heavier rain along the CONTDVD region, so will will have to watch the Chalk Bluffs region (W of Buena Vista) closely. The 36h experimental HRRR was indicating we may see storm motion in a east to west component, and if this happens, the CONTDVD region may see the greatest threat. Overall, tomorrow will have to be watched carefully for a localized heavy rain threat. It should be noted that HPC has a marginal risk of heavy rain over our region for tomorrow. In the Ensemble guidance suite, both Q and PW are running rather high over the fcst area during the afternoon time period. In a nutshell, slow storm motion + Lots of liquid + CAPE (but no shear) = localized heavy rain threat tomorrow. Where that threat actually materializes still needs to be determined. /Hodanish .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 .Monday Night and Tuesday...Weak upper disturbance over Texas will drift northward. On Monday evening, localized heavy rain threat over the mountains will decrease as convection wanes. Models hint at a weak surface trough, associated with the weak upper disturbance, over the eastern plains Monday evening which could be the focus for some convection. Increased the PoPs somewhat Monday evening to have the mention of thunderstorms over the plains. On Tuesday, the weak upper disturbance will tend to keep the winds aloft from an easterly direction. The light easterly winds may help to focus convection more over the eastern mountains, and the NBM PoPs show this trend for Tuesday afternoon. Weak features will determine where and if convection develops on the plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. These weak features are difficult to identity especially with convective parameterization in the models. Winds aloft continue to be weak with the threat for some locally heavy downpours, and will have to monitor the burn scars. For now, did not touch the NBM PoPs which have PoPs decreasing to near zero near the Kansas border. .Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge develops with modest westerly flow over the area. Still looks to be enough moisture in the ridge for diurnal convection, mainly confined to the higher terrain. There will be a gradual decrease in moisture which will reduce the flash flood threat. A weak boundary may move southward Wednesday, and current simulations do not show a stronger push of moisture southward over the plains. .Friday and Saturday...This looks to be an interested period. Upper low off the California coast becomes an open wave and lifts northeast across the central Rockies. Still some timing issues between the models and ensembles. In general, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean are faster than the EC and EC ensemble mean. There could be significant synoptic scale lift associated with the trough passage as well as increased wind shear. Will have to watch for the potential for strong to severe storms with the potential for some heavier rain. Current ensemble mean keep the best synoptic lift over the mountains with lesser chances for precipitation on the plains. There is still much uncertainty as the movement of the upper lows is a difficult forecast. .Sunday...After the upper trough passes, Sunday looks to be the start of a period of generally warmer and drier weather. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 302 PM MDT Sun May 31 2020 Best chance of storms for KCOS will be prior to 6 pm this evening. Otherwise VFR through tomorrow, but we may see some more storms tomorrow by mid afternoon. KPUB and KALS...Isolated storms possible this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow afternoon/evening otherwise VFR. Winds all areas will be light and diurnal except gust in and around TSRA Any rain tomorrow afternoon could be briefly heavy for 15-30 minutes. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...HODANISH