Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/28/20

National Weather Service Hastings NE
614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 A large upper low remains centered southeast of the forecast area, leading to periodic cloud cover as pieces of energy rotate around it. In addition, models show the potential for a few showers (or perhaps just sprinkles) for southeastern portions of the area late this afternoon through tonight, but little to no impacts are expected. Tonight, a cold front will push through the area. This will usher in stronger north winds for Thursday, with gusts of 20-30 MPH currently forecast. This front and associated shortwave will also finally kick the pesky upper low out of the area, which will allow for clearing skies in the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. So, despite the passage of this front, high temperatures are still expected to reach the mid 70s to low 80s. The latest 18Z HRRR and HRRR4 show some spotty lapse-rate showers or perhaps a weak thunderstorm developing in the post frontal environment Thursday afternoon. That said, there is not enough agreement between other models to justify a mention at this point. Just something to keep an eye on for now. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Surface high pressure slides into the area by Friday morning. This will lead to light winds and dry conditions during the day on Friday, but rain chances return Friday night into Saturday as a subtle shortwave moves into the area through the northwesterly flow aloft. There is just enough instability to have a chance for thunder, but severe weather appears unlikely at this point. The area will transition to a warmer pattern starting on Sunday as ridging builds overhead. By Monday, June 1st, highs are forecast to return to mid 80s to 90s across Nebraska and Kansas. 80s and 90s are also expected to continue through the middle of the week. This pattern will also, overall, looking drier, but it isn`t a "guaranteed" dry stretch. The GFS (and Euro to some degree) keeps some 500mb vorticity trapped under the center of the ridge axis in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. For now, there isn`t enough model agreement for PoPs, but it will be something to monitor in upcoming forecasts. Troughing then pushes into the west coast in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, which may bring us better chances for precipitation by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday) Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Overall quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Cloud cover through tonight is expected to mainly be above 10k ft, tomorrow during the late morning/afternoon hours could see some lower clouds develop, but should be both scattered in nature and above 3k ft. Winds this evening will transition from current ENE to NNW, remaining that way through the end of the period. Gusty conditions are expected to develop late morning through the afternoon, near 25 MPH at times. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...ADP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
842 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 Update issued to add in slight chance for showers this evening for western portions of our northeast Colorado zones. Latest regional radar continues to show showers/thunder developing over central Colorado and shift eastward. Trend has been for the activity to weaken/fall apart as they leave the better instability over central portions of the state. No other changes. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 Through Tonight: A small amplitude shortwave presently situated in Wyoming -- on the northeast periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest -- will track SSE into the Tri-State area overnight. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that isold showers may accompany this feature into Eastern Colorado between 06-12Z Thu (midnight- sunrise). With poor diurnal timing and a relatively stable airmass in place over the region, confidence is low w/regard to whether or not showers will develop over (or persist into) Eastern Colorado overnight. Even if showers develop in CO -- lingering synoptic subsidence on the NW periphery of the broad upper low over the Southern Plains should act to weaken/suppress activity with eastern extent into Kansas. Thu-Thu night: Northerly flow aloft will strengthen over the region in this period -- on the E-NE periphery of an amplifying upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West. Convection cannot be ruled out in eastern Colorado late Thu aft/eve -- though any chance thereof will be tied to diurnal convection developing along the CO Front Range -- and whether or not ascent /convective coverage/ will be augmented by small amplitude waves progressing SSE-SE along the northeast periphery of the ridge during the aft/eve hours. At this time, expect activity to largely remain along/west of Limon-Akron. *If* isolated convection develops and approaches western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties invof peak heating -- a brief instance of severe wind may be possible. Fri-Fri night: A broad surface trough will develop in the lee of the Central/Southern Rockies on Fri -- as the amplifying upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds northward into the 4-Corners -- and flow aloft backs to the northwest over the High Plains. With NW flow aloft and southerly low-level flow on the eastern periphery of a developing lee trough -- isolated convection (potentially severe) cannot be ruled out -- mainly in Colorado and adjacent KS border counties during the late afternoon and evening hours. At this time, confidence in convective development/coverage/evolution is too low to warrant additional discussion. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 Not much has changed since yesterday`s extended discussion. The models are still showing an upper-level ridge build over the High Plains and producing mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this weekend as the highs look to reach into the lower 90s by Sunday and the minimum relative humidity values will drop into the lower to middle 20s along with southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible this Saturday and Sunday afternoon, mainly over the eastern Colorado, due to lee side troughing along the Front Range. Monday and Tuesday will see the highs reach into the middle to upper 90s as the upper-level ridge continues to build and moves more eastward. This shift will produce more of a southerly flow aloft over the local area by Tuesday. Within this flow the models are showing embedded shortwave troughs. This could lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the western portion of the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 518 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020 With high pressure transitioning over the region during the forecast period, VFR conditions are expected. Both terminals... KGLD/KMCK...can expect mainly scattered mid clouds but there will be some low cloud. Winds for KGLD, NE around 10kts thru 03z Thursday, then light/ variable. By 13z, NNW 5-10kts becoming NNE by 19z. Winds for KMCK, NNE 5-10kts thru 03z Thursday, then light/ variable. By 13z, NNW 5-10kts thru 15z, then N. By 22z, NE around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Bertha will weaken further on Thursday as it moves north into the central Appalachians. Unsettled weather will continue for the remainder of the week as south winds maintain tropical moisture across the area. A cold front will make its way through the Carolinas this weekend bringing cooler and drier weather by early next week. && .UPDATE... An update has been made to the overnight forecast to localize rain chances to the two north-south bands currently observed on radar for the next couple of hours, then merging into a time- lagged HRRR pattern after 07Z/3 AM EDT. Most high res models indicate there will be an uptick in convective coverage and strength toward daybreak, increasing further across northeastern South Carolina northward toward Whiteville and Lumberton after daybreak. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... At this point, will keep the current FFA going thru 6 am. But will make no adjustments at this time given the latest 88d estimate rainfall amounts. I don`t see the isolated 8 inch rainfall amounts that`s been proposed in the latest NHC statements but could see isolated 4 to 5 inch amounts, especially across the ILM SC Counties. The SSE-S flow from off the Atlantic will continue to push pcpn onshore well after the small circulation of Bertha pushes north of the FA during tonight. The question remains how much of a nocturnal wave of pcpn develops over the warmer Atlantic Waters and is able to hold together as it pushes northward and onshore. Although current SSTs are in the 70s, its not a favorable time of year to see this onshore nocturnal push of pcpn. Nevertheless, will keep the FFA going but likely will see the removal of most if not all counties well before the FFA 6am Thu expiration time. This deep onshore flow will continue thru Thu but begin to veer slightly to the SSW-SW as the cutoff low over the south central U.S. begins to open up, as a mid-level s/w trof drops out of south central Canada. The onshore push of deep moisture, ie. 70s dewpoints, will aid instability especially during daylight Thu when some breaks in the clouds will allow insolation to reach the sfc. Have fcst low 80s for Thu maxes, could possibly go hier based on the amount of insolation. Onshore flow will keep max temps in the 70s at the immediate coast. The conveyor of moisture from off the Atlantic continues Thu night with a mid-level weak s/w possibly aiding convection well into the night. Overall POPs thru the period will run 60-80 this afternoon/evening dropping back to moderate chance tonight and back up to atleast likely Thu into Thu evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will approach the area from the west and this will supply enough forcing energy to produce showers and storms across the area on Friday. Soundings show near-saturated conditions in the mid and upper-levels, but shear profiles and low-level lapse rates should limit the overall severe potential. One or two storms could become strong and bring strong wind gusts. On Friday night, additional showers will develop ahead of a surface cold front as the approaching trough brings large-scale height falls and forcing for ascent. As the cold front begins to push across the Appalachians, it will begin to lose a little bit of its forward speed. On Saturday, the cold front will still be attempting to push through the Carolinas, leading to continued rain chances through early Saturday evening. Overnight, we will start to see the development of a drier and cooler air mass with skies clearing by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Sunday, the upper-level trough continues to dig into the eastern US. This will provide continued height falls during the day on Sunday with lingering showers in the morning, mostly clearing during the day, until afternoon peak heating. Given the upper and mid-level dry air, at most we could see some light showers along the afternoon sea breeze. High pressure will build into the area, bringing gusty winds overnight, flooding much of the eastern US with strong cold air advection. A cooler and drier air mass will dominate the weather across the area for much of early next week. Temperatures will remain below average through Tuesday with a slow moderation beginning on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 2-meter RH near saturation overnight after a wet day, 10-meter winds easing to 6-8 kt late. This likely to lead to an ugly mix of mist and stratus, especially inland. At coastal terminals, periods of +RA possible after 8z from KMYR to KILM through 13z- 14z. Gusty SE winds at the coast up to 23 kt at times. Heating and moisture Thursday to allow isolated to scattered convection by Thursday afternoon, at any of the terminals. Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather continues late Thursday through Sunday with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and t-storms. Winds will be locally higher in and near TSTMs. && .MARINE... Gale warning to continue south of Little River Inlet, ie. the ILM SC Waters, thru 6 pm. A SCA will replace the Gale at 6 pm. Overall, leftover Bertha`s circulation to warrant the Gale for the SC waters, mainly for occasional gusts to 35 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt will occur over the ILM NC Waters atleast into the evening hours. As Bertha circulation moves NW-N of the ILM Waters, winds will generally become SSE-S. The sfc pg will relax-some as Bertha`s circulation moves further away this evening and overnight...resulting in 10-20 kt speeds across the area waters. The synoptic pressure pattern and gradient will produce mainly southerly winds at 10-15 kt or 10-20 kt Thu thru Thu night. Seas will generally run initially at 5 to 8 ft, a few 9 footers possible across the outer waters east of Cape Fear, then slowly subside to 4 to 7 ft overnight, and below 6 ft SCA thresholds during daylight Thu, first the ILM SC Waters by midday and late aftn for the ILM NC Waters. As would expect, short period wind driven waves at 5 to 7 second periods, will dominate the seas spectrum. Deep southerly conveyor of Atlantic moisture will occasionally push convection across the area waters this aftn thru Thu. Southerly winds persist on Friday becoming 10-15 knots as the gradient weakens slightly. Winds will be combined with a 3-4 foot swell around 7-8 seconds into Saturday. This will make for rough conditions that will remain below SCA thresholds. On Saturday, winds veer slightly and become southwesterly ahead of a slow moving cold front. The cold front pushes through the area on Sunday morning leading to winds becoming offshore for much of the day. Sunday night into Monday, winds increase to 15-20 knots out of the NE as cold high pressure builds into the eastern half of the CONUS. This may bring brief Small Craft conditions depending on the strength of the tightening gradient. High pressure dominates the weather pattern into the middle of next week with an overall weak wind field. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. NC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096-099- 109-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21 UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...43 MARINE...DCH/21
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
934 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions continue into Thursday. A cold front will then move through the Ohio Valley on Friday afternoon bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tropical Depression Bertha is now centered near Charlotte NC, and will continue on a track almost due north from there overnight. Moisture associated with Bertha will have its westward limit, with rainfall amounts of over an inch expected to remain well outside of the ILN forecast area. With that said, clouds and some light rain associated with the system may impact central and south-central Ohio by early tomorrow morning. Some minor upward adjustments were made to the forecast to adjust for this possibility. Otherwise, the forecast has changed little tonight, with expectations that any precipitation should remain very isolated across the ILN CWA. The previous forecast included the possibility of some slightly higher chances for showers and storms in the far western sections of the CWA near daybreak, and this still appears to be on track based on latest HRRR runs. Previous discussion > Sprawling cumulus fields have developed over the Ohio Valley with the afternoon heating on the western end of an upper-level ridge. A few isolated showers have formed over eastern Indiana along with the cumulus. Showers and storms have been having a hard time forming early this afternoon since instability is low compared to previous days and a forcing mechanism is lacking. However, additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly along and west of the I-75 corridor. Any storms are only expected to pose typical thunderstorm hazards: lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall. With the absence of shear, the threat for strong thunderstorms is low. Convectively driven showers and storms are expected to die off in the evening with diurnal heating. The chance for showers then increases a bit overnight near and west of I-75 and along the Scioto River Valley and Columbus metro area. Areas along and west of I-75 may experience showers as a disturbance and remnant convection may make it`s way into the Ohio Valley from the southern US. Across the east (Columbus metro and Scioto River Valley), the remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha may just clip the area and bring some showers and cloud cover. The overall forecast confidence in terms of the precipitation tonight is a bit challenging due to the convective nature of the showers. Either way, temperatures will remain warm tonight with lows in the middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level ridging finally breaks down on Thursday morning as a cutoff weakens and encroaches the Ohio Valley from the lower Mississippi River Valley. As the low/opening trough creeps toward the area, a more potent shortwave along the polar jet absorbs the weakening cutoff low. As this happens, the Ohio Valley is just east both systems in a warm and humid air mass. Much like the past few days, this will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area as highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Some more shear east of the trough could potentially allow for more thunderstorm organization than the past few days. Increased cloud cover just east of the trough is also likely. The more potent northern shortwave trough will dive out of the northern Great Plains into the upper-Midwest on Thursday night. As this happens, the chance for showers and thunderstorms starts to increase from the northwest late on Thursday night into early Friday morning. Warm and humid conditions persist with lows in the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended period begins with a H5 shortwave swinging through the Upper Mississippi Valley, with an elongated trof axis extending down to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the s/w, a cold front will be pushing through Indiana. The system will swing east across the region on Friday. Ongoing convection in Indiana will push into the west by mid-morning, then across the rest of the region during the day. Latest models runs are consistent with each other and a little quicker with the system than yesterday`s runs. They now have much of the area dry by 00Z Saturday, with just some lingering PoPs in the east during the evening hours. With the widespread convection on Friday, highs are only forecast to range from the lower 70s in the Whitewater Valley to around 80 in the far east. High pressure will drop down out of Canada Friday night into Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will settle across the region for the weekend. Highs on Saturday are forecast to range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Cooler air aloft will allow for some fair weather cu to develop. The high will drop southeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning, before it works east to Ohio by Monday morning. Lows Sunday morning will once again range from the upper 40s in the north to the lower 50s in nrn KY. Highs on Sunday will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday morning lows will be a couple of degrees cooler ranging from 45 to 50 degrees. Temperatures will start to rebound Monday as the region gets on the backside of the high. Highs will push back into the lower 70s. Large H5 ridge, builds over the middle of the country on Tuesday, with the Great Lakes in northwest flow. Models are developing convection over the upper Great Lakes and then they drop them southeast into the area. The ECMWF is furthest south with the pcpn, while the GFS and CMC are a farther north. Will run a blend to come up with slight chance PoPs in the Central Ohio for Tuesday and chance PoPs for much of the area on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, but with occasional chances for showers and storms. Showers have been very isolated this afternoon, and this will likely continue to be the case this evening. Over the next few hours, any showers will be more likely to be near KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN, but with low coverage not warranting specific inclusion in the TAFs. This may change late in the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, with some indications of a greater chance of precipitation in the 10Z-15Z time frame at all TAF sites. If confidence in this scenario increases, some prevailing or TEMPO showers may need to be added later. It is also during this period, perhaps extending into tomorrow early afternoon, when some MVFR ceilings may also be possible. This might need to be added explicitly into later forecasts as well. Spotty showers will be possible again through the rest of tomorrow. Light SE winds are expected overnight, with a switch to southerly winds of around 10 knots tomorrow. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through Friday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hatzos
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
657 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances this evening through the overnight as a cold front moves into the northern CWA. Forecaster confidence is medium that the potential for any rain showers to move into the CWA will be isolated. The HiRes models, the NAM and HRRR have all been hinting at limited shower development further southeast of the SD border. The best chance for development of showers will be across the Black Hills, there is a potential for an isolated rain shower to sustain itself enough to make it into the northwest Sandhills, however the further southeast the environment is less favorable. Although there will be some surface moisture with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s, moisture above the surface layer is limited. Lowered pops to around 25 to 30 percent mainly across Sheridan county and less elsewhere across the northwest and western Sandhills. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with the frontal passage, the coolest temperatures will be across the NW Sandhills where highs will be in the low 70s, elsewhere highs will reach the mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday through Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves across the area. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the eastern portion of the CWA, mainly east of a line from VTN to LBF. However, at this time confidence is low in widespread development and have kept PoP chances on the low end. Then and upper level ridge begins to build into the area Sunday and will be situated across the high plains through Tuesday. Temperatures will be the warmest seen this year on both Monday and Tuesday with widespread 90s across the area. This will be the first time North Platte and Valentine have reached 90 degrees since last year. This will bear some watching in upcoming forecast as models continue to trended warmer, will have to continue to monitor the heat indicies. Another chance of thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves into the region, at this time confidence is low in widespread coverage, with only slight chances of PoPs in the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 Quiet weather is expected for both terminals over the next day with VFR conditions will persisting. Winds remain under 10 knots at KLBF with brief gusty winds up to 20 knots during the afternoon Thursday at KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
259 PM PDT Wed May 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Warm high pressure dominates with near record high temperatures by Friday. Isolated thunderstorms possible near the Idaho border Thursday and Friday, otherwise dry weather continues for the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Fair amount of moisture cuts across northern Nevada with precipitable water at 0.75 inches per morning 12Z sounding, ideal for convective potential. What is lacking is a deep layered lapse rates and a feature aloft to trigger more convection. HRRR and RAP models show some isolated cell development that tracks east toward the Utah deserts late this afternoon. Any convective development wanes quickly early evening. Farther west, isolated storms that form over northeast California may drift into the Sheldon refuge area. Warm ridge axis stays over Nevada before shifting east into Utah Friday. Some moisture lingers into Thursday and Friday afternoon across the far north, so an isolated storm may occur in Jarbidge vicinity, otherwise dry and warmer. Inverted thermal trough strengthens Friday in advance of deep closed low circulation approaching the SoCal coast. Desert bottoms will be in the upper 90s with the US50 communities near 90. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. Overview: Early Saturday, a fully occluded system lifts north into central CA. Ahead of it, lee side trof forms in western NV. By the afternoon, the strong jet core associated with this system shifts into western NV as the upper low lifts and fills into far southern OR. All of this, creates a tight surface pressure gradient across central Nevada, and a very dry atmosphere profile across of all of the area. By Sunday, the now 500mb trof lifts well to the north as whats left of the boundary falls apart across the area, relaxing the surface pressure gradient before another system lifts north and impacts CA Sunday afternoon. Once again, the long ridge is just strong enough to keep the bulk of moisture just west of the area. By Monday, another systems lifts north into CA, but this time is further east (slightly) as the overall 500mb long wave trof off the west coast shifts closer to the coast. Now, the track of this system as it lifts north is still in doubt due to uncertainty in the downstream 500mb ridge. Either this system lift into the area as a 500mb low closes in southern CA by Wednesday, or the four corners high builds northeast, weakening this system it pulls back to the NW, and forming a large cut off 500mb low well off the southern CA coast. The first solution increasing the odds for precipitation, while the second keep the area pretty much dry. Sensible Weather: Precipitation: Blowing dust is anticipated Saturday...maybe Sunday and Monday. A thunderstorm or high-based shower is possible in far western Humboldt or in the Jarbidge Mtns Saturday and Sunday. Monday through Wednesday see an overall increase in convection but still rather low given the differences in models/ensembles overall synoptic pattern. The highest (albeit in the low 20s) chances through this period are in far western Humboldt county and near the NV/OR and NV/ID borders Winds: Confidence is high that advisory levels winds (S to SW) occur Saturday, and possibly Sunday and Monday in central or eastern NV, although far less confident on Sunday and Monday. Gust over 50 mph are possible in the higher terrain on Saturday. NAEFS anomalies are hinting at 4+ for 700mbs so possibility remains of warning level winds if the core of the jet shifts more to eastern NV. Temperatures: Slight cooling trend but still above average (mainly 80s). Some sites may only climb into the 70s beyond Sunday is cloud cover is more than anticipated. Due to slight increase in moisture, not expecting a drop off in low temps...50s with some 40s. && .AVIATION... VFR at all sites. Showers or t-storms should stay to the northeast of KEKO this afternoon/evening. All other sites see some mid or high level cloud cover before clearing out tonight. Less in the way of cloud cover tomorrow but increasing temperatures means an increase in density altitude...well above normal for this time of year. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fuel status remains not critical, but current status may change due to the anomalous temperatures for 2-3 days with valleys reaching the 90s. Strong gusty winds will develop, particularly over eastern Nevada on Saturday afternoon. See Wind section in the long term discussion. && .HYDROLOGY...Melting mountain snow from rising daytime temperatures is resulting in through the week across mountain, resulting in rises on streams and creeks. Flooding is not anticipated but Lamoille Creek and Jarbidge River stand the best chance of seeing elevated flows. The overall day to day trend for both is upwards, with both exhibiting a diurnal peak in the late evenings. && .CLIMATE...High pressure over the region brings exceptionally warm temperatures through Saturday, running 20-25 degrees above normal. This may result in daily record highs. Please continue to monitor us on Facebook at or Twitter at for additional climate comparisons. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 88/85/85/88
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
939 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The forecast is looking good this evening. Main adjustments to the forecast this evening have been to tweak the PoPs here and there to try to chase down these showers, but the showers are continuing to diminish as expected. There will be a continuing slight chance for showers across the entire area through the night in this moist airmass, with increasing chances after 06Z, mainly across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. CAMs stretch the area of rain currently over Kentucky and Tennessee back to the northwest into our area between 06-09Z and the RAP has a corresponding weak area of 850mb moisture convergence moving through the same locations. Last but not least, some light fog is likely across much of the area, with patchy dense fog possible over parts of central Missouri before sunrise. However, most visibility guidance does not show widespread dense fog so an advisory isn`t anticipated at this time. Carney && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The upper low currently centered in the vicinity of eastern OK continues to inch eastward today. Weak impulses rotating cyclonically about the upper circulation have been helping generate bands/waves of primarily showers across the region. Thunder thus far has been hard to come by owing to the lack of heating and weak low level lapse rates, with MLCAPE only in the 500-1000 j/kg range. The greatest extent of instability is across the southern CWA where a bit more heating has occurred and this is where the greatest chance seeing any scattered thunderstorms will occur the remainder of this afternoon into the early evening. Further north the instability would suggest more of an isolated threat. Overall the coverage of all the precipitation should wane this evening with loss of heating. Overnight there will still be a chance of spotty showers, but the threat is low. I expect we will also see some fog that will persist into the early morning. Present thinking is we will see more thunder tomorrow. The upper low/trof will be ejecting across the region Thursday and Thursday night while a northern stream short wave sends a cold front across the area on Thursday afternoon and night. We should see more breaks in cloud cover and better heating on Thursday which will contribute to greater instability. I think we will see more coverage of diurnally driven showers and storms ahead of the advancing cold front as well as perhaps a band along/ahead of the front associated with frontal forcing. I would expect the coverage of showers and storms will be maximized in the afternoon and early evening, diminish late evening and overnight as instability wanes. Phasing of the northern and southern stream trofs will occur late Thursday night into Friday, with the resulting longwave trof moving east of the CWA through the day on Friday. There still could be some lingering showers during the morning across extreme east central and southeast MO into southwest IL, but the overall trend should be for drying as the associated cold front continues to depart eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region and surface high pressure builds into the region from the Plains. Glass .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 The latest deterministic model runs and ensemble systems continue to advertise an amplified and slowly progressive upper air pattern will dominate this weekend through the extended period next week. Initially the pattern will feature a longwave trof across eastern NOAM with an upper ridge through the Rockies. This pattern will maintain surface high pressure across the Mid MS Valley region through the weekend with lower humidity and cooler temperatures. Forecast 850 mb temperatures, MOS guidance, and GEFS and NBM temperature guidance all continues to support below normal temperatures. The one caveat to a dry forecast we will need to closely monitor is the potential for northwest flow short waves that could either bring more cloud cover or perhaps high-based showers or remnants of a decaying Plains MCS. Skill at resolving the timing/location/presence of these small scale waves is limited at these time ranges, especially in association with a pattern change, which ultimately can have an impact on maintaining forecast continuity. Progression of the pattern continues heading into the first half of next week with the eastern NOAM trof moving into the western Atlantic and the upper ridge building across the Plains and into the MS Valley. Both the GEFS and EPS mean resolve this large scale evolution well and are in decent agreement through late Tuesday. Overall this scenario supports a return to summer heat more typical of June, especially Tuesday and Wednesday when south- southwest low level flow will become established and temperatures should rise to above normal levels. Late Wednesday and beyond there is a bit more uncertainty reflected with a decent amount of spread in the deterministic models and ensemble prediction systems as well. The differences revolve around the strength and extent of upper ridging from the Plains into the mid MS Valley and the depth of trofing from the Great Lakes into the eastern U.S.. The operational ECMWF is most bullish with this trofing and the new EPS mean is flatter with the ridge than previously, as is the new GEFS mean. This new guidance suggests than the longevity of summer heat could be in jeopardy beyond Wednesday with a potential cold frontal passage and accompanying chance of thunderstorms in the Wed-Thurs time frame. Glass && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020 An upper level storm system centered over northwest Arkansas will continue to produce scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm over central and eastern Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois through tomorrow. VFR flight conditions are currently prevailing across most of the area, however an area of low stratus is likely to develop over northern Missouri and central Illinois and sink south overnight tonight. Fog also seems likely to develop south of this stratus across central and southeast Missouri into west central Illinois. Currently thinking visibility will drop to 3-5 miles but not much lower. The stratus will likely be in the 500-900ft range, possibly lower as it sinks south toward the I-70 corridor overnight. However, am not sure how far south it will get before sunrise. Current indications are that the stratus will stay just to the north of the St. Louis Metro area, but will make it to Columbia. Once the sun comes up, expect ceilings to rise and more shower development. Thunderstorms will be more likely during the afternoon ahead of a cold front. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
808 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020 Hot and humid day across the UP as clear skies across the central are starting to show some convection across N Marquette County. Ongoing -SHRA across the western shores of the UP remains as -SHRA across the eastern central portions of the UP are starting to move offshore along the PRNL to Grand Marais. CAMs weren`t analyzing thunderstorm development across the central this earlier, but suspect they also weren`t anticipating temperatures to climb into upper 80s either. A few cells that have moved over the lake did show some signs of melting hail as they pulsed up and then back down after moving over the colder water. Heading into this evening and tonight, expecting more -TSRA development across the central as daytime heating and increased sfc moisture continues. CAMs suggest broad brush convection to begin across the central portions of the UP over the next few hours. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggest 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE and that will linger into the early evening hours as sfc heating continues under partly sunny skies. Low-level lapse rates are certainly conducive for convection sitting between 7-8C/km per RAP analysis, but thankfully wind shear threat continues to remain low with bulk shear remaining blo 30kts. As a cold front approaches tonight, models suggest rain and thunderstorms to develop along its deformation axis. There is some uncertainty as to where exactly this sets up, but WPC does have portions of central UP and along Lake Mi shoreline in a slight chance for excessive rainfall. Looking at storm motion vectors and CAMs, storm motion appears to be along the same axis that thunderstorms develop. Mean storm winds will also be on the lighter side, near 20 to 25 kts, which will enhance the chance for training thunderstorms. Thankfully the trend with the 12Z guidance was slightly more to the SE, which puts the main axis of precip over Lake MI tomorrow morning. Overall, with PWATs almost 1.5 inches at GRB this AM, that is well above the 90th percentile. Latest RAP run suggests 1.75 inches of PWAT moving over the central portions of the UP tonight. With that, have increased the QPF this evening through tomorrow morning, with a broad stroke of a half an inch across the central and east, with pockets upwards of an inch. Wherever thunderstorms develop and train over, there is certainly the possibility that some places exceed the 1to 1.5 inch mark or more. By noonish tomorrow, models suggest the bulk of the convection to be across Lake MI, with ongoing trailing stratiform from Marquette County eastward. There is plenty of uncertainty in the CAMs and they struggled the past day or two analyzing any precip that developed across the central. For now, kept the chance PoPs to go along with the model spread, but certainly possible that precip ends up further eastward if the frontal axis shifts east. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020 Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb shortwave over the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri with another over the mid Mississippi valley. The two shortwaves combine on Fri over the lower Great Lakes with more troughing dropping in to form a deeper trough over the eastern U.S. on Sat. This will slow the advancement east of the pcpn a bit Thu night and then quieter and drier air moves in for Fri and Fri night. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies 12z Sun with a trough over the ern half of the U.S. The ridge moves into the plains 12z Mon with the trough on the east coast. By 12z Wed, the trough has moved off the east coast with the trough still in the plains. The ridge then moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. Warming trend will occur this forecast period with temperatures going back to above normal by mid week. Manual progs show a sfc front getting hung up over the area on Tue into Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 751 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020 Scattered showers are affecting much of the U.P. this evening with even a few thunderstorms into central portions of the U.P. No immediate concerns for thunderstorms at the terminals, although KSAW might see an isolated t-storm in the vicinity later this evening into the overnight. Conditions are expected to improve at KIWD in the next few hours as the rain and clouds shift east. Lingering low-level moisture and lighter upslope winds may bring fog to CMX tonight, resulting in mainly MVFR to IFR conditions. KSAW will remain VFR through much of the evening before showers and a maybe few thunderstorms develop and shift east over the terminal resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions. As showers shift east late Thursday morning, conditions will improve at KSAW, reaching VFR by early to mid afternoon. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020 Winds will remain generally blo 25 knots through the extended forecast. Fog, dense at times, will linger through tonight, before diminishing from west to east behind a cold front tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms and rain will develop and pass over the eastern half of Lake Superior tonight into tomorrow morning, which could bring a few gusts to near 30 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ162-263-264. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
757 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 .UPDATE... Deep moisture and strong surface heating allowed for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop today along sea breeze and outflow boundaries, and a few storms are still lingering over the interior portions of the warning area. HRRR and other high resolution guidance is forecasting these storms to dissipate over the next few hours, with quiet weather expected through the rest of the overnight period. The rain chances and sky cover forecast have been adjusted for the next few hours to keep up with the radar trends. Otherwise, no significant changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... A few showers and storms lingering near KFMY and KRSW will continue to move inland and dissipate over the next hour or two. VFR conditions will then generally hold through at least 08z. Some patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible between 08-14z, mostly around Tampa Bay area terminals. Another round of thunderstorms will develop between 17-19z, with reduced flight categories and gusty winds possible as storms approach individual terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure ridging across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend will keep winds generally around 10 knots or less, with daily sea breezes turning onshore near the coast. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms which will be possible over the waters each day, mostly during the afternoon and early evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 76 89 75 89 / 0 50 20 60 FMY 75 91 74 92 / 10 60 20 50 GIF 73 90 73 92 / 10 70 30 60 SRQ 75 89 74 90 / 0 50 20 50 BKV 72 91 71 90 / 10 60 20 70 SPG 76 89 75 90 / 0 50 10 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming