Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/28/20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

A large upper low remains centered southeast of the forecast
area, leading to periodic cloud cover as pieces of energy rotate
around it. In addition, models show the potential for a few
showers (or perhaps just sprinkles) for southeastern portions of
the area late this afternoon through tonight, but little to no
impacts are expected.

Tonight, a cold front will push through the area. This will usher
in stronger north winds for Thursday, with gusts of 20-30 MPH
currently forecast. This front and associated shortwave will also
finally kick the pesky upper low out of the area, which will allow
for clearing skies in the late afternoon and evening on Thursday.
So, despite the passage of this front, high temperatures are
still expected to reach the mid 70s to low 80s.

The latest 18Z HRRR and HRRR4 show some spotty lapse-rate showers
or perhaps a weak thunderstorm developing in the post frontal
environment Thursday afternoon. That said, there is not enough
agreement between other models to justify a mention at this point.
Just something to keep an eye on for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Surface high pressure slides into the area by Friday morning.
This will lead to light winds and dry conditions during the day on
Friday, but rain chances return Friday night into Saturday as a
subtle shortwave moves into the area through the northwesterly
flow aloft. There is just enough instability to have a chance for
thunder, but severe weather appears unlikely at this point.

The area will transition to a warmer pattern starting on Sunday
as ridging builds overhead. By Monday, June 1st, highs are
forecast to return to mid 80s to 90s across Nebraska and Kansas.
80s and 90s are also expected to continue through the middle of
the week.

This pattern will also, overall, looking drier, but it isn`t a
"guaranteed" dry stretch. The GFS (and Euro to some degree) keeps
some 500mb vorticity trapped under the center of the ridge axis in
the Sunday/Monday timeframe. For now, there isn`t enough model
agreement for PoPs, but it will be something to monitor in
upcoming forecasts. Troughing then pushes into the west coast in
the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, which may bring us better chances
for precipitation by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Overall quiet weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this
TAF period. Cloud cover through tonight is expected to mainly be
above 10k ft, tomorrow during the late morning/afternoon hours
could see some lower clouds develop, but should be both scattered
in nature and above 3k ft. Winds this evening will transition
from current ENE to NNW, remaining that way through the end of the
period. Gusty conditions are expected to develop late morning
through the afternoon, near 25 MPH at times.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...ADP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

 842 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020

Update issued to add in slight chance for showers this evening
for western portions of our northeast Colorado zones. Latest
regional radar continues to show showers/thunder developing over
central Colorado and shift eastward. Trend has been for the
activity to weaken/fall apart as they leave the better instability
over central portions of the state. No other changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020

Through Tonight: A small amplitude shortwave presently situated
in Wyoming -- on the northeast periphery of an amplifying upper
level ridge over the Desert Southwest -- will track SSE into the
Tri-State area overnight. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via the
HRRR and NAM NEST suggest that isold showers may accompany this
feature into Eastern Colorado between 06-12Z Thu (midnight-
sunrise). With poor diurnal timing and a relatively stable
airmass in place over the region, confidence is low w/regard to
whether or not showers will develop over (or persist into)
Eastern Colorado overnight. Even if showers develop in CO --
lingering synoptic subsidence on the NW periphery of the broad
upper low over the Southern Plains should act to weaken/suppress
activity with eastern extent into Kansas.

Thu-Thu night: Northerly flow aloft will strengthen over the
region in this period -- on the E-NE periphery of an amplifying
upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest/Intermountain West.
Convection cannot be ruled out in eastern Colorado late Thu
aft/eve -- though any chance thereof will be tied to diurnal
convection developing along the CO Front Range -- and whether or
not ascent /convective coverage/ will be augmented by small
amplitude waves progressing SSE-SE along the northeast periphery
of the ridge during the aft/eve hours. At this time, expect
activity to largely remain along/west of Limon-Akron. *If*
isolated convection develops and approaches western portions of
Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties invof peak heating -- a brief
instance of severe wind may be possible.

Fri-Fri night: A broad surface trough will develop in the lee of
the Central/Southern Rockies on Fri -- as the amplifying upper
ridge over the Desert Southwest builds northward into the
4-Corners -- and flow aloft backs to the northwest over the High
Plains. With NW flow aloft and southerly low-level flow on the
eastern periphery of a developing lee trough -- isolated
convection (potentially severe) cannot be ruled out -- mainly in
Colorado and adjacent KS border counties during the late afternoon
and evening hours. At this time, confidence in convective
development/coverage/evolution is too low to warrant additional
discussion.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020

Not much has changed since yesterday`s extended discussion. The
models are still showing an upper-level ridge build over the High
Plains and producing mostly dry conditions and above normal
temperatures.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible this weekend as the
highs look to reach into the lower 90s by Sunday and the minimum
relative humidity values will drop into the lower to middle 20s
along with southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible this
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, mainly over the eastern Colorado,
due to lee side troughing along the Front Range.

Monday and Tuesday will see the highs reach into the middle to
upper 90s as the upper-level ridge continues to build and moves
more eastward. This shift will produce more of a southerly flow
aloft over the local area by Tuesday. Within this flow the models
are showing embedded shortwave troughs. This could lead to
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the western portion of the
local area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Wed May 27 2020

With high pressure transitioning over the region during the
forecast period, VFR conditions are expected. Both terminals...
KGLD/KMCK...can expect mainly scattered mid clouds but there will
be some low cloud.

Winds for KGLD, NE around 10kts thru 03z Thursday, then light/
variable. By 13z, NNW 5-10kts becoming NNE by 19z.

Winds for KMCK, NNE 5-10kts thru 03z Thursday, then light/
variable. By 13z, NNW 5-10kts thru 15z, then N. By 22z, NE around
10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

 1201 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bertha will weaken further on Thursday as it
moves north into the central Appalachians. Unsettled weather
will continue for the remainder of the week as south winds
maintain tropical moisture across the area. A cold front will
make its way through the Carolinas this weekend bringing cooler
and drier weather by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
An update has been made to the overnight forecast to localize
rain chances to the two north-south bands currently observed on
radar for the next couple of hours, then merging into a time-
lagged HRRR pattern after 07Z/3 AM EDT. Most high res models
indicate there will be an uptick in convective coverage and
strength toward daybreak, increasing further across northeastern
South Carolina northward toward Whiteville and Lumberton after
daybreak.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
At this point, will keep the current FFA going thru 6 am. But will
make no adjustments at this time given the latest 88d estimate
rainfall amounts. I don`t see the isolated 8 inch rainfall amounts
that`s been proposed in the latest NHC statements but could see
isolated 4 to 5 inch amounts, especially across the ILM SC Counties.
The SSE-S flow from off the Atlantic will continue to push pcpn
onshore well after the small circulation of Bertha pushes north of
the FA during tonight. The question remains how much of a nocturnal
wave of pcpn develops over the warmer Atlantic Waters and is able to
hold together as it pushes northward and onshore. Although current
SSTs are in the 70s, its not a favorable time of year to see this
onshore nocturnal push of pcpn. Nevertheless, will keep the FFA
going but likely will see the removal of most if not all counties
well before the FFA 6am Thu expiration time.

This deep onshore flow will continue thru Thu but begin to veer
slightly to the SSW-SW as the cutoff low over the south central U.S.
begins to open up, as a mid-level s/w trof drops out of south
central Canada. The onshore push of deep moisture, ie. 70s
dewpoints, will aid instability especially during daylight Thu when
some breaks in the clouds will allow insolation to reach the sfc.
Have fcst low 80s for Thu maxes, could possibly go hier based on the
amount of insolation. Onshore flow will keep max temps in the 70s at
the immediate coast. The conveyor of moisture from off the Atlantic
continues Thu night with a mid-level weak s/w possibly aiding
convection well into the night. Overall POPs thru the period will
run 60-80 this afternoon/evening dropping back to moderate chance
tonight and back up to atleast likely Thu into Thu evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level trough will approach the area from the west and this
will supply enough forcing energy to produce showers and storms
across the area on Friday. Soundings show near-saturated conditions
in the mid and upper-levels, but shear profiles and low-level lapse
rates should limit the overall severe potential. One or two storms
could become strong and bring strong wind gusts. On Friday night,
additional showers will develop ahead of a surface cold front as the
approaching trough brings large-scale height falls and forcing for
ascent. As the cold front begins to push across the Appalachians, it
will begin to lose a little bit of its forward speed. On Saturday,
the cold front will still be attempting to push through the
Carolinas, leading to continued rain chances through early Saturday
evening. Overnight, we will start to see the development of a drier
and cooler air mass with skies clearing by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, the upper-level trough continues to dig into the eastern
US. This will provide continued height falls during the day on
Sunday with lingering showers in the morning, mostly clearing during
the day, until afternoon peak heating. Given the upper and mid-level
dry air, at most we could see some light showers along the afternoon
sea breeze. High pressure will build into the area, bringing gusty
winds overnight, flooding much of the eastern US with strong cold
air advection. A cooler and drier air mass will dominate the weather
across the area for much of early next week. Temperatures will
remain below average through Tuesday with a slow moderation
beginning on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2-meter RH near saturation overnight after a wet day, 10-meter
winds easing to 6-8 kt late. This likely to lead to an ugly mix
of mist and stratus, especially inland. At coastal terminals,
periods of +RA possible after 8z from KMYR to KILM through 13z-
14z. Gusty SE winds at the coast up to 23 kt at times. Heating
and moisture Thursday to allow isolated to scattered convection
by Thursday afternoon, at any of the terminals.

Extended Outlook...Unsettled weather continues late Thursday
through Sunday with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers
and t-storms. Winds will be locally higher in and near TSTMs.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning to continue south of Little River Inlet, ie. the ILM SC
Waters, thru 6 pm. A SCA will replace the Gale at 6 pm. Overall,
leftover Bertha`s circulation to warrant the Gale for the SC waters,
mainly for occasional gusts to 35 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt will occur
over the ILM NC Waters atleast into the evening hours. As Bertha
circulation moves NW-N of the ILM Waters, winds will generally
become SSE-S. The sfc pg will relax-some as Bertha`s circulation
moves further away this evening and overnight...resulting in 10-20
kt speeds across the area waters. The synoptic pressure pattern and
gradient will produce mainly southerly winds at 10-15 kt or 10-20 kt
Thu thru Thu night. Seas will generally run initially at 5 to 8 ft,
a few 9 footers possible across the outer waters east of Cape Fear,
then slowly subside to 4 to 7 ft overnight, and below 6 ft SCA
thresholds during daylight Thu, first the ILM SC Waters by midday
and late aftn for the ILM NC Waters. As would expect, short period
wind driven waves at 5 to 7 second periods, will dominate the seas
spectrum. Deep southerly conveyor of Atlantic moisture will
occasionally push convection across the area waters this aftn thru
Thu.

Southerly winds persist on Friday becoming 10-15 knots as the
gradient weakens slightly. Winds will be combined with a 3-4 foot
swell around 7-8 seconds into Saturday. This will make for rough
conditions that will remain below SCA thresholds. On Saturday, winds
veer slightly and become southwesterly ahead of a slow moving cold
front. The cold front pushes through the area on Sunday morning
leading to winds becoming offshore for much of the day. Sunday night
into Monday, winds increase to 15-20 knots out of the NE as cold
high pressure builds into the eastern half of the CONUS. This may
bring brief Small Craft conditions depending on the strength of the
tightening gradient. High pressure dominates the weather pattern
into the middle of next week with an overall weak wind field.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096-099-
     109-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/21



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

 934 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions continue into Thursday. A cold
front will then move through the Ohio Valley on Friday afternoon
bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air returns for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Tropical Depression Bertha is now centered near Charlotte NC,
and will continue on a track almost due north from there
overnight. Moisture associated with Bertha will have its
westward limit, with rainfall amounts of over an inch expected
to remain well outside of the ILN forecast area. With that said,
clouds and some light rain associated with the system may impact
central and south-central Ohio by early tomorrow morning. Some
minor upward adjustments were made to the forecast to adjust
for this possibility.

Otherwise, the forecast has changed little tonight, with
expectations that any precipitation should remain very isolated
across the ILN CWA. The previous forecast included the
possibility of some slightly higher chances for showers and
storms in the far western sections of the CWA near daybreak, and
this still appears to be on track based on latest HRRR runs.

Previous discussion >
Sprawling cumulus fields have developed over the Ohio Valley with
the afternoon heating on the western end of an upper-level ridge. A
few isolated showers have formed over eastern Indiana along with the
cumulus. Showers and storms have been having a hard time forming
early this afternoon since instability is low compared to previous
days and a forcing mechanism is lacking. However, additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
mainly along and west of the I-75 corridor. Any storms are only
expected to pose typical thunderstorm hazards: lightning, gusty
winds, and localized heavy rainfall. With the absence of shear, the
threat for strong thunderstorms is low. Convectively driven showers
and storms are expected to die off in the evening with diurnal
heating.

The chance for showers then increases a bit overnight near and west
of I-75 and along the Scioto River Valley and Columbus metro area.
Areas along and west of I-75 may experience showers as a disturbance
and remnant convection may make it`s way into the Ohio Valley from
the southern US. Across the east (Columbus metro and Scioto River
Valley), the remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha may just clip the
area and bring some showers and cloud cover. The overall forecast
confidence in terms of the precipitation tonight is a bit challenging
due to the convective nature of the showers. Either way,
temperatures will remain warm tonight with lows in the middle
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level ridging finally breaks down on Thursday morning as a
cutoff weakens and encroaches the Ohio Valley from the lower
Mississippi River Valley. As the low/opening trough creeps toward
the area, a more potent shortwave along the polar jet absorbs the
weakening cutoff low. As this happens, the Ohio Valley is just east
both systems in a warm and humid air mass. Much like the past few
days, this will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the area as highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Some
more shear east of the trough could potentially allow for more
thunderstorm organization than the past few days. Increased cloud
cover just east of the trough is also likely.

The more potent northern shortwave trough will dive out of the
northern Great Plains into the upper-Midwest on Thursday night. As
this happens, the chance for showers and thunderstorms starts to
increase from the northwest late on Thursday night into early Friday
morning. Warm and humid conditions persist with lows in the middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended period begins with a H5 shortwave swinging through the
Upper Mississippi Valley, with an elongated trof axis extending down
to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the s/w, a cold front will
be pushing through Indiana. The system will swing east across the
region on Friday. Ongoing convection in Indiana will push into the
west by mid-morning, then across the rest of the region during the
day.

Latest models runs are consistent with each other and a little
quicker with the system than yesterday`s runs. They now have much of
the area dry by 00Z Saturday, with just some lingering PoPs in the
east during the evening hours. With the widespread convection on
Friday, highs are only forecast to range from the lower 70s in the
Whitewater Valley to around 80 in the far east.

High pressure will drop down out of Canada Friday night into
Saturday. Much cooler and drier air will settle across the region
for the weekend. Highs on Saturday are forecast to range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Cooler air aloft will allow for some fair weather cu to
develop.

The high will drop southeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Sunday morning, before it works east to Ohio by Monday morning.
Lows Sunday morning will once again range from the upper 40s in the
north to the lower 50s in nrn KY. Highs on Sunday will only be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday morning lows will be a couple of
degrees cooler ranging from 45 to 50 degrees. Temperatures will
start to rebound Monday as the region gets on the backside of the
high. Highs will push back into the lower 70s.

Large H5 ridge, builds over the middle of the country on Tuesday,
with the Great Lakes in northwest flow. Models are developing
convection over the upper Great Lakes and then they drop them
southeast into the area. The ECMWF is furthest south with the pcpn,
while the GFS and CMC are a farther north. Will run a blend to come
up with slight chance PoPs in the Central Ohio for Tuesday and
chance PoPs for much of the area on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
but with occasional chances for showers and storms.

Showers have been very isolated this afternoon, and this will
likely continue to be the case this evening. Over the next few
hours, any showers will be more likely to be near
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN, but with low coverage not warranting
specific inclusion in the TAFs. This may change late in the
overnight hours into tomorrow morning, with some indications of
a greater chance of precipitation in the 10Z-15Z time frame at
all TAF sites. If confidence in this scenario increases, some
prevailing or TEMPO showers may need to be added later. It is
also during this period, perhaps extending into tomorrow early
afternoon, when some MVFR ceilings may also be possible. This
might need to be added explicitly into later forecasts as well.
Spotty showers will be possible again through the rest of
tomorrow.

Light SE winds are expected overnight, with a switch to
southerly winds of around 10 knots tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times
through Friday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hatzos




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 657 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The main concern in the short term is with precipitation chances
this evening through the overnight as a cold front moves into the
northern CWA. Forecaster confidence is medium that the potential for
any rain showers to move into the CWA will be isolated. The HiRes
models, the NAM and HRRR have all been hinting at limited shower
development further southeast of the SD border. The best chance for
development of showers will be across the Black Hills, there is a
potential for an isolated rain shower to sustain itself enough to
make it into the northwest Sandhills, however the further southeast
the environment is less favorable. Although there will be some
surface moisture with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s,
moisture above the surface layer is limited. Lowered pops to around
25 to 30 percent mainly across Sheridan county and less elsewhere
across the northwest and western Sandhills.

Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday with the frontal passage,
the coolest temperatures will be across the NW Sandhills where
highs will be in the low 70s, elsewhere highs will reach the mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday through
Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves across the area. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the eastern
portion of the CWA, mainly east of a line from VTN to LBF.
However, at this time confidence is low in widespread development
and have kept PoP chances on the low end. Then and upper level
ridge begins to build into the area Sunday and will be situated
across the high plains through Tuesday. Temperatures will be the
warmest seen this year on both Monday and Tuesday with widespread
90s across the area. This will be the first time North Platte and
Valentine have reached 90 degrees since last year. This will bear
some watching in upcoming forecast as models continue to trended
warmer, will have to continue to monitor the heat indicies.

Another chance of thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening
as another disturbance moves into the region, at this time
confidence is low in widespread coverage, with only slight chances
of PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

Quiet weather is expected for both terminals over the next day with
VFR conditions will persisting. Winds remain under 10 knots at KLBF
with brief gusty winds up to 20 knots during the afternoon Thursday
at KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Elko NV

 259 PM PDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Warm high pressure dominates with near record high
temperatures by Friday. Isolated thunderstorms possible near the
Idaho border Thursday and Friday, otherwise dry weather continues
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Fair amount of moisture cuts across northern Nevada with
precipitable water at 0.75 inches per morning 12Z sounding, ideal
for convective potential. What is lacking is a deep layered lapse
rates and a feature aloft to trigger more convection. HRRR and RAP
models show some isolated cell development that tracks east
toward the Utah deserts late this afternoon. Any convective
development wanes quickly early evening. Farther west, isolated
storms that form over northeast California may drift into the
Sheldon refuge area.

Warm ridge axis stays over Nevada before shifting east into Utah
Friday. Some moisture lingers into Thursday and Friday afternoon
across the far north, so an isolated storm may occur in Jarbidge
vicinity, otherwise dry and warmer. Inverted thermal trough
strengthens Friday in advance of deep closed low circulation
approaching the SoCal coast. Desert bottoms will be in the upper
90s with the US50 communities near 90.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

Overview:
Early Saturday, a fully occluded system lifts north into central
CA. Ahead of it, lee side trof forms in western NV. By the
afternoon, the strong jet core associated with this system shifts
into western NV as the upper low lifts and fills into far southern
OR. All of this, creates a tight surface pressure gradient across
central Nevada, and a very dry atmosphere profile across of all of
the area. By Sunday, the now 500mb trof lifts well to the north as
whats left of the boundary falls apart across the area,
relaxing the surface pressure gradient before another system lifts
north and impacts CA Sunday afternoon. Once again, the long ridge
is just strong enough to keep the bulk of moisture just west of
the area. By Monday, another systems lifts north into CA, but this
time is further east (slightly) as the overall 500mb long wave
trof off the west coast shifts closer to the coast. Now, the track
of this system as it lifts north is still in doubt due to
uncertainty in the downstream 500mb ridge. Either this system lift
into the area as a 500mb low closes in southern CA by Wednesday,
or the four corners high builds northeast, weakening this system
it pulls back to the NW, and forming a large cut off 500mb low
well off the southern CA coast. The first solution increasing the
odds for precipitation, while the second keep the area pretty much
dry.

Sensible Weather:

Precipitation:
Blowing dust is anticipated Saturday...maybe Sunday and Monday. A
thunderstorm or high-based shower is possible in far western
Humboldt or in the Jarbidge Mtns Saturday and Sunday. Monday
through Wednesday see an overall increase in convection but still
rather low given the differences in models/ensembles overall
synoptic pattern. The highest (albeit in the low 20s) chances
through this period are in far western Humboldt county and near
the NV/OR and NV/ID borders

Winds:
Confidence is high that advisory levels winds (S to SW) occur
Saturday, and possibly Sunday and Monday in central or eastern NV,
although far less confident on Sunday and Monday. Gust over 50 mph
are possible in the higher terrain on Saturday. NAEFS anomalies
are hinting at 4+ for 700mbs so possibility remains of warning
level winds if the core of the jet shifts more to eastern NV.

Temperatures:
Slight cooling trend but still above average (mainly 80s). Some
sites may only climb into the 70s beyond Sunday is cloud cover is
more than anticipated. Due to slight increase in moisture, not
expecting a drop off in low temps...50s with some 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR at all sites. Showers or t-storms should stay to the northeast
of KEKO this afternoon/evening. All other sites see some mid or
high level cloud cover before clearing out tonight. Less in the
way of cloud cover tomorrow but increasing temperatures means an
increase in density altitude...well above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fuel status remains not critical, but current status may change
due to the anomalous temperatures for 2-3 days with valleys
reaching the 90s. Strong gusty winds will develop, particularly
over eastern Nevada on Saturday afternoon. See Wind section in the
long term discussion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Melting mountain snow from rising daytime temperatures
is resulting in through the week across mountain, resulting in
rises on streams and creeks. Flooding is not anticipated but
Lamoille Creek and Jarbidge River stand the best chance of seeing
elevated flows. The overall day to day trend for both is upwards,
with both exhibiting a diurnal peak in the late evenings.

&&

.CLIMATE...High pressure over the region brings exceptionally
warm temperatures through Saturday, running 20-25 degrees above
normal. This may result in daily record highs. Please continue to
monitor us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSElko or
Twitter at https://www.twitter.com/NWSElko for additional climate
comparisons.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

88/85/85/88




Area Forecast Discussion...Updated

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

 939 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The forecast is looking good this evening. Main adjustments to
the forecast this evening have been to tweak the PoPs here and
there to try to chase down these showers, but the showers are
continuing to diminish as expected. There will be a continuing
slight chance for showers across the entire area through the night
in this moist airmass, with increasing chances after 06Z, mainly
across southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. CAMs stretch
the area of rain currently over Kentucky and Tennessee back to the
northwest into our area between 06-09Z and the RAP has a
corresponding weak area of 850mb moisture convergence moving
through the same locations. Last but not least, some light fog is
likely across much of the area, with patchy dense fog possible
over parts of central Missouri before sunrise. However, most
visibility guidance does not show widespread dense fog so an
advisory isn`t anticipated at this time.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The upper low currently centered in the vicinity of eastern OK
continues to inch eastward today. Weak impulses rotating
cyclonically about the upper circulation have been helping
generate bands/waves of primarily showers across the region.
Thunder thus far has been hard to come by owing to the lack of
heating and weak low level lapse rates, with MLCAPE only in the
500-1000 j/kg range. The greatest extent of instability is across
the southern CWA where a bit more heating has occurred and this is
where the greatest chance seeing any scattered thunderstorms will
occur the remainder of this afternoon into the early evening.
Further north the instability would suggest more of an isolated
threat. Overall the coverage of all the precipitation should wane
this evening with loss of heating. Overnight there will still be a
chance of spotty showers, but the threat is low. I expect we will
also see some fog that will persist into the early morning.

Present thinking is we will see more thunder tomorrow. The upper
low/trof will be ejecting across the region Thursday and Thursday
night while a northern stream short wave sends a cold front across
the area on Thursday afternoon and night. We should see more
breaks in cloud cover and better heating on Thursday which will
contribute to greater instability. I think we will see more
coverage of diurnally driven showers and storms ahead of the
advancing cold front as well as perhaps a band along/ahead of the
front associated with frontal forcing. I would expect the coverage
of showers and storms will be maximized in the afternoon and early
evening, diminish late evening and overnight as instability wanes.

Phasing of the northern and southern stream trofs will occur late
Thursday night into Friday, with the resulting longwave trof
moving east of the CWA through the day on Friday. There still
could be some lingering showers during the morning across extreme
east central and southeast MO into southwest IL, but the overall
trend should be for drying as the associated cold front continues
to depart eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region and
surface high pressure builds into the region from the Plains.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The latest deterministic model runs and ensemble systems continue to
advertise an amplified and slowly progressive upper air pattern will
dominate this weekend through the extended period next week.
Initially the pattern will feature a longwave trof across eastern
NOAM with an upper ridge through the Rockies. This pattern will
maintain surface high pressure across the Mid MS Valley region
through the weekend with lower humidity and cooler temperatures.
Forecast 850 mb temperatures, MOS guidance, and GEFS and NBM
temperature guidance all continues to support below normal
temperatures. The one caveat to a dry forecast we will need to
closely monitor is the potential for northwest flow short waves that
could either bring more cloud cover or perhaps high-based showers or
remnants of a decaying Plains MCS. Skill at resolving the
timing/location/presence of these small scale waves is limited at
these time ranges, especially in association with a pattern change,
which ultimately can have an impact on maintaining forecast
continuity.

Progression of the pattern continues heading into the first half
of next week with the eastern NOAM trof moving into the western
Atlantic and the upper ridge building across the Plains and into
the MS Valley. Both the GEFS and EPS mean resolve this large scale
evolution well and are in decent agreement through late Tuesday.
Overall this scenario supports a return to summer heat more
typical of June, especially Tuesday and Wednesday when south-
southwest low level flow will become established and temperatures
should rise to above normal levels.

Late Wednesday and beyond there is a bit more uncertainty
reflected with a decent amount of spread in the deterministic
models and ensemble prediction systems as well. The differences
revolve around the strength and extent of upper ridging from the
Plains into the mid MS Valley and the depth of trofing from the
Great Lakes into the eastern U.S.. The operational ECMWF is most
bullish with this trofing and the new EPS mean is flatter with the
ridge than previously, as is the new GEFS mean. This new guidance
suggests than the longevity of summer heat could be in jeopardy
beyond Wednesday with a potential cold frontal passage and
accompanying chance of thunderstorms in the Wed-Thurs time frame.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

An upper level storm system centered over northwest Arkansas will
continue to produce scattered showers and the occasional
thunderstorm over central and eastern Missouri into west central
and southwest Illinois through tomorrow. VFR flight conditions are
currently prevailing across most of the area, however an area of
low stratus is likely to develop over northern Missouri and central
Illinois and sink south overnight tonight. Fog also seems likely
to develop south of this stratus across central and southeast
Missouri into west central Illinois. Currently thinking visibility
will drop to 3-5 miles but not much lower. The stratus will likely
be in the 500-900ft range, possibly lower as it sinks south toward
the I-70 corridor overnight. However, am not sure how far south it
will get before sunrise. Current indications are that the stratus
will stay just to the north of the St. Louis Metro area, but will
make it to Columbia. Once the sun comes up, expect ceilings to
rise and more shower development. Thunderstorms will be more
likely during the afternoon ahead of a cold front.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 808 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

Hot and humid day across the UP as clear skies across the central
are starting to show some convection across N Marquette County.
Ongoing -SHRA across the western shores of the UP remains as -SHRA
across the eastern central portions of the UP are starting to move
offshore along the PRNL to Grand Marais. CAMs weren`t analyzing
thunderstorm development across the central this earlier, but
suspect they also weren`t anticipating temperatures to climb into
upper 80s either. A few cells that have moved over the lake did show
some signs of melting hail as they pulsed up and then back down
after moving over the colder water.

Heading into this evening and tonight, expecting more -TSRA
development across the central as daytime heating and increased sfc
moisture continues. CAMs suggest broad brush convection to begin
across the central portions of the UP over the next few hours.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggest 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE and that will
linger into the early evening hours as sfc heating continues under
partly sunny skies. Low-level lapse rates are certainly conducive
for convection sitting between 7-8C/km per RAP analysis, but
thankfully wind shear threat continues to remain low with bulk shear
remaining blo 30kts. As a cold front approaches tonight, models
suggest rain and thunderstorms to develop along its deformation
axis. There is some uncertainty as to where exactly this sets up,
but WPC does have portions of central UP and along Lake Mi shoreline
in a slight chance for excessive rainfall. Looking at storm motion
vectors and CAMs, storm motion appears to be along the same axis
that thunderstorms develop. Mean storm winds will also be on the
lighter side, near 20 to 25 kts, which will enhance the chance for
training thunderstorms. Thankfully the trend with the 12Z guidance
was slightly more to the SE, which puts the main axis of precip over
Lake MI tomorrow morning. Overall, with PWATs almost 1.5 inches at
GRB this AM, that is well above the 90th percentile. Latest RAP run
suggests 1.75 inches of PWAT moving over the central portions of the
UP tonight. With that, have increased the QPF this evening through
tomorrow morning, with a broad stroke of a half an inch across the
central and east, with pockets upwards of an inch. Wherever
thunderstorms develop and train over, there is certainly the
possibility that some places exceed the 1to 1.5 inch mark or more.

By noonish tomorrow, models suggest the bulk of the convection to be
across Lake MI, with ongoing trailing stratiform from Marquette
County eastward. There is plenty of uncertainty in the CAMs and they
struggled the past day or two analyzing any precip that developed
across the central. For now, kept the chance PoPs to go along with
the model spread, but certainly possible that precip ends up further
eastward if the frontal axis shifts east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

Upper air pattern will consist of a 500 mb shortwave over the upper
Great Lakes 00z Fri with another over the mid Mississippi valley.
The two shortwaves combine on Fri over the lower Great Lakes with
more troughing dropping in to form a deeper trough over the eastern
U.S. on Sat. This will slow the advancement east of the pcpn a bit
Thu night and then quieter and drier air moves in for Fri and Fri
night. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge over the
Rockies 12z Sun with a trough over the ern half of the U.S. The
ridge moves into the plains 12z Mon with the trough on the east
coast. By 12z Wed, the trough has moved off the east coast with the
trough still in the plains. The ridge then moves into the upper
Great Lakes 12z Wed. Warming trend will occur this forecast period
with temperatures going back to above normal by mid week. Manual
progs show a sfc front getting hung up over the area on Tue into Wed.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 751 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

Scattered showers are affecting much of the U.P. this evening with
even a few thunderstorms into central portions of the U.P. No
immediate concerns for thunderstorms at the terminals, although
KSAW might see an isolated t-storm in the vicinity later this
evening into the overnight. Conditions are expected to improve at
KIWD in the next few hours as the rain and clouds shift east.
Lingering low-level moisture and lighter upslope winds may bring
fog to CMX tonight, resulting in mainly MVFR to IFR conditions.
KSAW will remain VFR through much of the evening before showers
and a maybe few thunderstorms develop and shift east over the
terminal resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions. As showers shift
east late Thursday morning, conditions will improve at KSAW,
reaching VFR by early to mid afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 339 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2020

Winds will remain generally blo 25 knots through the extended
forecast. Fog, dense at times, will linger through tonight, before
diminishing from west to east behind a cold front tomorrow morning.
Thunderstorms and rain will develop and pass over the eastern half
of Lake Superior tonight into tomorrow morning, which could bring a
few gusts to near 30 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JAW




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

 757 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Deep moisture and strong surface heating allowed for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop today along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries, and a few storms are still
lingering over the interior portions of the warning area. HRRR and
other high resolution guidance is forecasting these storms to
dissipate over the next few hours, with quiet weather expected
through the rest of the overnight period. The rain chances and
sky cover forecast have been adjusted for the next few hours to
keep up with the radar trends. Otherwise, no significant changes
are planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and storms lingering near KFMY and KRSW will
continue to move inland and dissipate over the next hour or two.
VFR conditions will then generally hold through at least 08z. Some
patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible between 08-14z, mostly
around Tampa Bay area terminals. Another round of thunderstorms
will develop between 17-19z, with reduced flight categories and
gusty winds possible as storms approach individual terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging across the Florida Peninsula and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend will keep winds
generally around 10 knots or less, with daily sea breezes turning
onshore near the coast. Locally higher winds and seas will be
possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms which will be possible
over the waters each day, mostly during the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  89  75  89 /   0  50  20  60
FMY  75  91  74  92 /  10  60  20  50
GIF  73  90  73  92 /  10  70  30  60
SRQ  75  89  74  90 /   0  50  20  50
BKV  72  91  71  90 /  10  60  20  70
SPG  76  89  75  90 /   0  50  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Fleming