Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/27/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1050 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
The ESRL HRRR Convective Allowing Model is most in line with the
latest radar trends and so it was followed in the nowcasting time
period. Rain showers have increased in coverage over northeast
Montana and into southeast Saskatchewan. Lightning strikes were
also showing up north of the Canadian border. This in an area of
8-9 deg C/KM low level lapse rates along that weak cold front.
Have expanded POPS south and have introduced thunder chances along
the canadian border. As the showers push east the air is less
unstable and into an area of less favorable lapse rates. Will
expect the showers to decrease into central north Dakota.
UPDATE Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
That weak cold front was draped across southeast Saskatchewan to
near Glasgow, Montana, as of this writing. It was drifting slowly
south and east. The convergence along it was minimal and the
upper air support was also weak, but not non-existent. The
nearest rain showers were about 140 miles north of Glasgow and
pushing east as they build a bit south. Other showers were back
into Alberta. Low level lapse rates that area were 8-9 degrees
C/KM with CAPE of 500 or less. With that a shower cannot be ruled
out into the northwest corner of North Dakota, Divide County into
Burke, this evening and so the inherited low pops were kept for
this update cycle.
A stronger mid level wave will intercept that front Wednesday
afternoon across southern North Dakota with at least a small
chance of showers, more likely along the South Dakota border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Tonight and Wednesday should be quiet for most. A weak front will
slide slowly south out of Canada this evening bringing a slight
chance of showers to northwest ND. The front is forecast stall and
washout a bit across southern ND tomorrow afternoon. This will be
the focus for light showers tomorrow as an upper-level wave swings
through the northern Plains. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than
today as northwesterly winds and cold air advection kick in behind
the front.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
The long term forecast is highlighted by a warming trend and dry
conditions through the weekend.
Cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday after the Canadian
upper low moves off to the southeast and northwest flow sets up
over North Dakota. Highs in the upper 60s in the far north and low
70s elsewhere is in the forecast.
A building ridge from the west will initiate a warming trend
through the rest of the forecast period until the ridge axis
moves over the northern Plains by late this weekend. With the
strong height rise pattern the forecast remains mostly dry as
supported by extended CIPS analog guidance. Slight chance PoPs
return late Sunday night with some guidance bringing a shortwave
over the ridge axis.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. An isolated rain
shower is possible in northwest North Dakota, the KXWA area until
about 27/0800Z. The wind will shift to be from the northwest on
Wednesday with 15 to 25 knots forecast at KXWA and KMOT after
27/1600Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
One concern in the short term will be with cloud coverage this
evening into the overnight. Soundings along with several models
have been consistent in most of the moisture remaining to the east
of the CWA. The surface low will move slowly northeastward and
remain across far eastern NE and western IA overnight, keeping
most of the cloud coverage across eastern Nebraska and westward
into portions of our eastern CWA. The NAM and the RAP does bring a
little bit of low level moisture in around 925 to 850 layer for
the remainder of this evening across the far eastern CWA so did
keep a little cloud cover for that area. Otherwise skies should
remain clear through the overnight. There could be the possibility
of patchy fog development early Wednesday morning, with clear
skies, calm winds and recent heavy rainfall adding some surface
moisture, mainly across the eastern CWA. Did not add the mention
of patchy fog into the forecast however, forecaster confidence is
low in development of this, with similar conditions observed last
night and only localized brief shallow fog developing. Lows will
remain near normal overnight.
Temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. The
main concern for Wednesday will be precipitation chances. A weak
cold front moves through the area Wednesday night. Mainly rain
showers are expected, thunderstorm chances are very low. SFC CAPE
values will be only around 100-300 J/kg generally across Sheridan
County back into the Panhandle, with the weak instability and
forcing confidence in any thunderstorm development is low. The
most likely area for rain showers will remain across the northern
Sandhills.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
A quiet weather pattern begins to transition into Upper level
trof continues to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS, while
an upper level ridge begins to build across the southwest CONUS.
The upper level ridge begins to build into the western Nebraska
Saturday. The Upper level ridge will be centered over the High
Plains Sunday and Monday before it begins to move east, bringing
hot and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the 90s
by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
Quiet weather is expected for both terminals over the next day with
VFR conditions will persisting. Gusty winds this afternoon and
evening will slowly diminish after sunset but will remain out of the
north/northeast through the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex early this
afternoon. One impulse is about to exit the area eastward, and
convection is diminishing rapidly across the area. Not out of the
question that the entire area could be dry by 00z. Where it`s not
raining, temperatures are in the upper 70s or lower 80s with
dew points around 70 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Plan to allow Coastal Flood Advisory expire on schedule.
HRRR shows little or no precipitation overnight, and 12 hour PoP
reflects this. Main threat in the short term will be as the main
vort lobe rotates around the upper low tomorrow. Potential for a
few strong storms tomorrow during the late morning and afternoon
with a hail and wind threat as -20C and wet bulb zero levels are
noticeably lower on some of the GFS BUFR soundings tomorrow
afternoon. This fits with SPC Marginal Risk for portions of the
area. Beyond tomorrow, boundary hangs up along the coast, but no
real mechanism for organized we lose any significant focus for
precipitation, except possibly along the Mississippi coast, which
could actually use some rain. Looking at about 30 percent PoPs for
Thursday and mid-range PoPs for Friday.
May get a little drier air into the area to allow overnight lows
to drop into the mid 60s over northern sections the next couple of
nights. Highs mid to upper 80s through Friday with not much spread
in guidance. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
Beyond Friday, upper and surface ridging builds into the area,
drying things out. May have to keep an eye out for easterly waves
depending on exactly where ridging sets up. Trending toward warmer
end of guidance on highs. Will go with a blend on lows for now,
but would note that GFS BUFR soundings in the extended period
would indicate that guidance dew points are not low enough early
next week, which would indicate that overnight lows could also be
slightly cooler than what is in the current forecast. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
Looking at occasional MVFR ceilings overnight. Can`t rule out
isolated IFR ceilings, particularly at KMCB. Will keep mention of
thunder out of TAF until mid-morning tomorrow. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly benign period outside of thunderstorms through the period
as ridging builds in. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 84 67 85 / 20 60 10 30
BTR 67 84 67 85 / 20 50 10 30
ASD 68 86 68 88 / 20 60 20 30
MSY 72 85 71 88 / 30 60 10 30
GPT 71 84 71 85 / 20 70 20 30
PQL 68 86 68 88 / 20 60 30 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ062-
064-069-070.
GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ080.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. S to SE wind this evening will become light overnight. Expect
a wind shift to the north midday Wednesday when a front/boundary
moves through.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows the upper trough over north central Texas, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in NW flow aloft on the
backside. Vis sat imagery shows a cu field going up over the lwr
Trans Pecos/Big Bend Area, but subsidence in the wake of the trough
is doing its best to minimize this development. The latest HRRR is
rather prosaic as well. Absent any trigger but weak upslope flow,
convective development this afternoon/evening looks minimal and
ephemeral, at best. Cooler temps aren`t helping destabilize things
either, as afternoon highs most locations will be in the lwr 80s.
The upper trough is still forecast to move east and close off over
the Arklatex by 00Z Thu, after which it`ll open and move onto the
east coast. As it does, a ridge will begin building in behind,
w/highs rebounding to above-normal by Wed afternoon. However, a
cold front is forecast to backdoor into the area Thu, taking temps
below-normal thru Sat. Temps climb back to normal Sun, and
gradually warm thereafter as the ridge sets up over the region.
As far as rain chances, some convection will be possible on the
front Thu as it moves in, but it`ll be isolated at best. The rest
of the forecast looks dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 59 91 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
Carlsbad 56 94 62 91 / 10 0 0 10
Dryden 62 95 66 91 / 10 10 0 30
Fort Stockton 62 94 64 89 / 10 0 0 20
Guadalupe Pass 58 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 54 91 58 87 / 10 0 0 10
Marfa 50 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 20
Midland Intl Airport 60 92 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
Odessa 60 92 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
Wink 59 96 63 92 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of the area this evening will lift north through
the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross
this weekend followed by high pressure early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...Light rain/drizzle has just about ended
and only expecting small chcs near coast overnight. Added areas
of fog for the nrn cst.
Prev disc...Low clouds persist across the region at late
afternoon as deeper moisture continues to advect in from the
south. Surface low pressure will move around the outer periphery
of a surface ridge offshore later tonight and Wednesday. Some
patchy light showers/sprinkles currently indicated by radar
along the southern coast. Think any light rain will be limited
to the southern coast for most of tonight, before spreading
inland a bit around daybreak Wednesday. Any QPF totals tonight
will be very light, only a couple of hundreths. Overnights lows
will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...Latest high-resolution guidance including
the 3km NAM and HRRR showing light rain overspreading most of
our CWA during the morning hours Wednesday. Some instability
will arrive from offshore during the later in the day and will
have categorical PoPs with a slight chance of thunder after 18z
or so Wednesday. Some embedded heavier downpours are possible
Wednesday as well. Winds veer from NE to SE/S early Wednesday,
leading to a bit more breaks in the clouds with highs 75 to 80
degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday... A deep SW flow bringing abundance
amount of moisture will leading to a wet pattern through the end
of the week. Then a cold front will approach the area and push
through late Saturday night into Sunday morning with high
pressure building in and providing drier and cooler weather for
early next weather.
Wednesday Night through Thursday...The mid to upper level ridge
will continue to dominate across the Eastern CONUS as a broad
trough settles over the Southern Plains with a mid to upper low
cutoff from the flow and gradually wobbling eastward. This will
lead to a deep SW flow bringing an abundant amount of moisture
into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a coastal trough
becomes more define along the Southeast coast with a weak low
developing around GA/SC and moving northward along the sfc
trough axis. The synoptic setup will lead to widespread rain
with heavy downpours at times as ENC will be in the region with
good upper-level divergence, 850 mb moisture transport, and
PWAT values above 2.00". Models are suggesting some instability
to current, so we cannot rule out embedded thunderstorms. By
Thursday, the sfc low will becoming an open wave, but the
moisture fetch continues, but an increase of instability
occurs...leading to more thunderstorms in the Thursday
afternoon. WPC has the most of the area in a marginal risk
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) with a slight risk across our
southern zone. In general, if rainfall amounts increases, there
can be a concern for flooding across our southern zones where
soils are saturated.
Friday through Saturday...While the highest PWAT values lifts
northward, PWATs will still remain btw 1.75 and 2.00". The deep SW
flow will continue on Friday, though it starts to break down due to
a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Northeast states,
while a cold front is approaching the region from the NW. Scattered
to widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorm will be possible as
instability will be the greatest on both day, while on Saturday,
shear increases in to around 30 kt.
Sunday through Tuesday...The cold front is forecasted to be offshore
by Sunday morning, leading to high pressure building in and clouds
clearing out late in the day. The high pressure will bring cooler
and drier weather for the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 640 PM Tuesday...Sub VFR expected thru bulk of period.
Mix of MVFR/VFR early will become more IFR later tonight as
clouds lower with poss some patchy light fog. On Wed shra will
become numerous most sites from mid morning on with cont sub
VFR cigs. ESE winds will gust aoa 20 kts most sites from late
morn thru the aftn.
Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...A wet-pattern continues Wednesday night
leading to mostly MVFR conditions through the period. Scattered
to widespread rain will occur Wednesday night and Thursday as
tropical moistures lifts into the area which will lead to MVFR
conditions with brief IFR. Additional scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday, before
high pressure builds in Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...Added areas of fog for nrn tier
overnight where have seen vsbys at or below 2 miles at times
over nrn OBX.
Prev disc...Winds continue NNE/NE at 15 knots or less with seas
3-4 feet at late afternoon. Winds should gradually E/SE toward
morning and will become increasingly gusty south of Oregon Inlet
with 15-20 knots winds, with gusts up to around 30 knots. SCA
continues for areas south of Oregon Inlet and have added the
Currituck Beach Light to Oregon Inlet leg as 6-foot seas are
likely to begin around midday on Wednesday.
Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday... Winds veer to South on Thursday and
finally becoming SW Friday night ahead of the approaching cold
front. Seas will build to 5-7 ft south of Oregon Inlet
Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will slowly subside Friday,
but the central water is expected to remain at 6 ft through
Saturday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
for AMZ156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday
for AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/BM