Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/27/20


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1050 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 The ESRL HRRR Convective Allowing Model is most in line with the latest radar trends and so it was followed in the nowcasting time period. Rain showers have increased in coverage over northeast Montana and into southeast Saskatchewan. Lightning strikes were also showing up north of the Canadian border. This in an area of 8-9 deg C/KM low level lapse rates along that weak cold front. Have expanded POPS south and have introduced thunder chances along the canadian border. As the showers push east the air is less unstable and into an area of less favorable lapse rates. Will expect the showers to decrease into central north Dakota. UPDATE Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 That weak cold front was draped across southeast Saskatchewan to near Glasgow, Montana, as of this writing. It was drifting slowly south and east. The convergence along it was minimal and the upper air support was also weak, but not non-existent. The nearest rain showers were about 140 miles north of Glasgow and pushing east as they build a bit south. Other showers were back into Alberta. Low level lapse rates that area were 8-9 degrees C/KM with CAPE of 500 or less. With that a shower cannot be ruled out into the northwest corner of North Dakota, Divide County into Burke, this evening and so the inherited low pops were kept for this update cycle. A stronger mid level wave will intercept that front Wednesday afternoon across southern North Dakota with at least a small chance of showers, more likely along the South Dakota border. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Tonight and Wednesday should be quiet for most. A weak front will slide slowly south out of Canada this evening bringing a slight chance of showers to northwest ND. The front is forecast stall and washout a bit across southern ND tomorrow afternoon. This will be the focus for light showers tomorrow as an upper-level wave swings through the northern Plains. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as northwesterly winds and cold air advection kick in behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 The long term forecast is highlighted by a warming trend and dry conditions through the weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday after the Canadian upper low moves off to the southeast and northwest flow sets up over North Dakota. Highs in the upper 60s in the far north and low 70s elsewhere is in the forecast. A building ridge from the west will initiate a warming trend through the rest of the forecast period until the ridge axis moves over the northern Plains by late this weekend. With the strong height rise pattern the forecast remains mostly dry as supported by extended CIPS analog guidance. Slight chance PoPs return late Sunday night with some guidance bringing a shortwave over the ridge axis. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. An isolated rain shower is possible in northwest North Dakota, the KXWA area until about 27/0800Z. The wind will shift to be from the northwest on Wednesday with 15 to 25 knots forecast at KXWA and KMOT after 27/1600Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPM SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 One concern in the short term will be with cloud coverage this evening into the overnight. Soundings along with several models have been consistent in most of the moisture remaining to the east of the CWA. The surface low will move slowly northeastward and remain across far eastern NE and western IA overnight, keeping most of the cloud coverage across eastern Nebraska and westward into portions of our eastern CWA. The NAM and the RAP does bring a little bit of low level moisture in around 925 to 850 layer for the remainder of this evening across the far eastern CWA so did keep a little cloud cover for that area. Otherwise skies should remain clear through the overnight. There could be the possibility of patchy fog development early Wednesday morning, with clear skies, calm winds and recent heavy rainfall adding some surface moisture, mainly across the eastern CWA. Did not add the mention of patchy fog into the forecast however, forecaster confidence is low in development of this, with similar conditions observed last night and only localized brief shallow fog developing. Lows will remain near normal overnight. Temperatures reach the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. The main concern for Wednesday will be precipitation chances. A weak cold front moves through the area Wednesday night. Mainly rain showers are expected, thunderstorm chances are very low. SFC CAPE values will be only around 100-300 J/kg generally across Sheridan County back into the Panhandle, with the weak instability and forcing confidence in any thunderstorm development is low. The most likely area for rain showers will remain across the northern Sandhills. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 A quiet weather pattern begins to transition into Upper level trof continues to shift eastward across the eastern CONUS, while an upper level ridge begins to build across the southwest CONUS. The upper level ridge begins to build into the western Nebraska Saturday. The Upper level ridge will be centered over the High Plains Sunday and Monday before it begins to move east, bringing hot and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the 90s by Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 Quiet weather is expected for both terminals over the next day with VFR conditions will persisting. Gusty winds this afternoon and evening will slowly diminish after sunset but will remain out of the north/northeast through the TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Kulik
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
359 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex early this afternoon. One impulse is about to exit the area eastward, and convection is diminishing rapidly across the area. Not out of the question that the entire area could be dry by 00z. Where it`s not raining, temperatures are in the upper 70s or lower 80s with dew points around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... Plan to allow Coastal Flood Advisory expire on schedule. HRRR shows little or no precipitation overnight, and 12 hour PoP reflects this. Main threat in the short term will be as the main vort lobe rotates around the upper low tomorrow. Potential for a few strong storms tomorrow during the late morning and afternoon with a hail and wind threat as -20C and wet bulb zero levels are noticeably lower on some of the GFS BUFR soundings tomorrow afternoon. This fits with SPC Marginal Risk for portions of the area. Beyond tomorrow, boundary hangs up along the coast, but no real mechanism for organized we lose any significant focus for precipitation, except possibly along the Mississippi coast, which could actually use some rain. Looking at about 30 percent PoPs for Thursday and mid-range PoPs for Friday. May get a little drier air into the area to allow overnight lows to drop into the mid 60s over northern sections the next couple of nights. Highs mid to upper 80s through Friday with not much spread in guidance. 35 && .LONG TERM... Beyond Friday, upper and surface ridging builds into the area, drying things out. May have to keep an eye out for easterly waves depending on exactly where ridging sets up. Trending toward warmer end of guidance on highs. Will go with a blend on lows for now, but would note that GFS BUFR soundings in the extended period would indicate that guidance dew points are not low enough early next week, which would indicate that overnight lows could also be slightly cooler than what is in the current forecast. 35 && .AVIATION... Looking at occasional MVFR ceilings overnight. Can`t rule out isolated IFR ceilings, particularly at KMCB. Will keep mention of thunder out of TAF until mid-morning tomorrow. 35 && .MARINE... Fairly benign period outside of thunderstorms through the period as ridging builds in. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 84 67 85 / 20 60 10 30 BTR 67 84 67 85 / 20 50 10 30 ASD 68 86 68 88 / 20 60 20 30 MSY 72 85 71 88 / 30 60 10 30 GPT 71 84 71 85 / 20 70 20 30 PQL 68 86 68 88 / 20 60 30 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ062- 064-069-070. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ080. GM...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
634 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... VFR. S to SE wind this evening will become light overnight. Expect a wind shift to the north midday Wednesday when a front/boundary moves through. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020/ DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the upper trough over north central Texas, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico in NW flow aloft on the backside. Vis sat imagery shows a cu field going up over the lwr Trans Pecos/Big Bend Area, but subsidence in the wake of the trough is doing its best to minimize this development. The latest HRRR is rather prosaic as well. Absent any trigger but weak upslope flow, convective development this afternoon/evening looks minimal and ephemeral, at best. Cooler temps aren`t helping destabilize things either, as afternoon highs most locations will be in the lwr 80s. The upper trough is still forecast to move east and close off over the Arklatex by 00Z Thu, after which it`ll open and move onto the east coast. As it does, a ridge will begin building in behind, w/highs rebounding to above-normal by Wed afternoon. However, a cold front is forecast to backdoor into the area Thu, taking temps below-normal thru Sat. Temps climb back to normal Sun, and gradually warm thereafter as the ridge sets up over the region. As far as rain chances, some convection will be possible on the front Thu as it moves in, but it`ll be isolated at best. The rest of the forecast looks dry. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 91 60 87 / 10 0 0 10 Carlsbad 56 94 62 91 / 10 0 0 10 Dryden 62 95 66 91 / 10 10 0 30 Fort Stockton 62 94 64 89 / 10 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 58 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 54 91 58 87 / 10 0 0 10 Marfa 50 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 60 92 63 88 / 10 0 0 10 Odessa 60 92 63 88 / 10 0 0 10 Wink 59 96 63 92 / 10 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure south of the area this evening will lift north through the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross this weekend followed by high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM Tuesday...Light rain/drizzle has just about ended and only expecting small chcs near coast overnight. Added areas of fog for the nrn cst. Prev disc...Low clouds persist across the region at late afternoon as deeper moisture continues to advect in from the south. Surface low pressure will move around the outer periphery of a surface ridge offshore later tonight and Wednesday. Some patchy light showers/sprinkles currently indicated by radar along the southern coast. Think any light rain will be limited to the southern coast for most of tonight, before spreading inland a bit around daybreak Wednesday. Any QPF totals tonight will be very light, only a couple of hundreths. Overnights lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM Tuesday...Latest high-resolution guidance including the 3km NAM and HRRR showing light rain overspreading most of our CWA during the morning hours Wednesday. Some instability will arrive from offshore during the later in the day and will have categorical PoPs with a slight chance of thunder after 18z or so Wednesday. Some embedded heavier downpours are possible Wednesday as well. Winds veer from NE to SE/S early Wednesday, leading to a bit more breaks in the clouds with highs 75 to 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... A deep SW flow bringing abundance amount of moisture will leading to a wet pattern through the end of the week. Then a cold front will approach the area and push through late Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in and providing drier and cooler weather for early next weather. Wednesday Night through Thursday...The mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate across the Eastern CONUS as a broad trough settles over the Southern Plains with a mid to upper low cutoff from the flow and gradually wobbling eastward. This will lead to a deep SW flow bringing an abundant amount of moisture into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a coastal trough becomes more define along the Southeast coast with a weak low developing around GA/SC and moving northward along the sfc trough axis. The synoptic setup will lead to widespread rain with heavy downpours at times as ENC will be in the region with good upper-level divergence, 850 mb moisture transport, and PWAT values above 2.00". Models are suggesting some instability to current, so we cannot rule out embedded thunderstorms. By Thursday, the sfc low will becoming an open wave, but the moisture fetch continues, but an increase of instability occurs...leading to more thunderstorms in the Thursday afternoon. WPC has the most of the area in a marginal risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) with a slight risk across our southern zone. In general, if rainfall amounts increases, there can be a concern for flooding across our southern zones where soils are saturated. Friday through Saturday...While the highest PWAT values lifts northward, PWATs will still remain btw 1.75 and 2.00". The deep SW flow will continue on Friday, though it starts to break down due to a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Northeast states, while a cold front is approaching the region from the NW. Scattered to widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorm will be possible as instability will be the greatest on both day, while on Saturday, shear increases in to around 30 kt. Sunday through Tuesday...The cold front is forecasted to be offshore by Sunday morning, leading to high pressure building in and clouds clearing out late in the day. The high pressure will bring cooler and drier weather for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 640 PM Tuesday...Sub VFR expected thru bulk of period. Mix of MVFR/VFR early will become more IFR later tonight as clouds lower with poss some patchy light fog. On Wed shra will become numerous most sites from mid morning on with cont sub VFR cigs. ESE winds will gust aoa 20 kts most sites from late morn thru the aftn. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...A wet-pattern continues Wednesday night leading to mostly MVFR conditions through the period. Scattered to widespread rain will occur Wednesday night and Thursday as tropical moistures lifts into the area which will lead to MVFR conditions with brief IFR. Additional scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday, before high pressure builds in Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/... As of 940 PM Tuesday...Added areas of fog for nrn tier overnight where have seen vsbys at or below 2 miles at times over nrn OBX. Prev disc...Winds continue NNE/NE at 15 knots or less with seas 3-4 feet at late afternoon. Winds should gradually E/SE toward morning and will become increasingly gusty south of Oregon Inlet with 15-20 knots winds, with gusts up to around 30 knots. SCA continues for areas south of Oregon Inlet and have added the Currituck Beach Light to Oregon Inlet leg as 6-foot seas are likely to begin around midday on Wednesday. Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Winds veer to South on Thursday and finally becoming SW Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. Seas will build to 5-7 ft south of Oregon Inlet Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will slowly subside Friday, but the central water is expected to remain at 6 ft through Saturday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...RF/BM MARINE...RF/CTC/BM