Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/26/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
920 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Showers and storms have dissipated quickly after sunset except for
one lone shower entering the Estancia Valley. Updated PoPs to remove
mention of precip overnight and lowered sky cover most areas. Gap
winds will also relax in the RGV overnight as the thermal gradient
and pressure gradient weakens across the central mt chain.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...558 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and a few thunderstorms across central into eastern NM will
continue through roughly 06Z with mt obscurations. Some of the
activity along the RGV may be drier with gusty/erratic winds. East
winds in the KABQ vcnty through 06Z may be enhanced from convective
outflows. Keeping TAF sites VFR through Tuesday, but there could be
brief MVFR conditions in the eastern TAFs from showers or cigs blw
030.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...206 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler conditions prevail behind a cold front today, especially
across eastern New Mexico, and below normal temperatures will
persist into Tuesday before warming back above normal areawide by
Wednesday. A backdoor front will bring moisture back to the state
Thursday that will fuel daily limited rounds of showers and storms
going into the weekend. Temperatures will trend up some over the
weekend as high pressure moves east over New Mexico.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
Scattered showers over the east central and southeast plains this
afternoon were moving into TX while cells were developing and moving
to the southeast over the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A good portion
of the lower clouds in the northeast and east central early this
morning have either dissipated or increased in height this
afternoon. The easterly gap winds at KABQ have weakened from early
this morning but are still expected to return later this
afternoon/early evening as convection increases along the central
mountain chain. Models indicate the low level moisture will push to
the Continental Divide or even a bit farther west tonight, however
it will mix out substantially Tuesday. Some of this evenings
convection in the Rio Grande Valley will likely produce gusty
erratic winds. Short term models including the RAP13 and HRRR hold
onto precipitation and cloud cover a few hours after sunset, so
tweaked inherited pops and sky cover.
Tuesday will be drier and warmer, but highs will be near to a few
degrees cooler than normal. Lows Tuesday night will be 5-10 degrees
warmer than tonight`s forecast lows.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A warming trend will continue into Wednesday as a ridge builds over
the Desert Southwest. Highs on Wednesday should rise above normal
areawide, with far western NM up to 10 degrees above normal. A
limited round of storms is likely across the northern mountains and
adjacent highlands Wednesday afternoon due to daytime heating and
sufficient lingering moisture. Pressure heights will continue to rise
over western NM Thursday as high pressure aloft shifts east from over
AZ, but a weak backdoor front will keep a lid on temperatures across
eastern NM and inject more moisture for a round of storms that will
favor the northeast quarter. Moisture from the backdoor front will
likely get transported west of the central mountain chain Thursday
night and fuel rounds of storms Friday through Sunday across central
and western NM despite high pressure moving slowly eastward over the
state. The latest ECMWF is continuing trends from earlier runs of
maintaining a more suppressive/dominant upper high over the state
relative to the GFS and would be supportive of warmer temperatures
and less convection. The latest medium range model solutions show the
upper high shifting east early next week with west coast troughing,
which may open the door for moisture to stream north into the state.
Our forecast is a blend of the medium range model solutions at this
time.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms will be focused over central and eastern
New Mexico for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Convection
from the central mountain chain across the Rio Grande Valley may be
a mix of wet and dry with gusty erratic winds. Cells will move
generally to the southeast and south. Shallow low level moisture
will seep a bit farther west tonight to the Continental Divide.
However, it will mix out Tuesday, with an overall drying and warming
trend as a ridge aloft starts to build over the state. Drying and
warming continues Wednesday but a few showers and storms are
possible over the northern high terrain. Overnight humidity
recoveries along and west of the ContDvd will be fair to poor
Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
Another cold front entering eastern New Mexico Thursday will
increase chances for showers and storms there. The ridge axis will
shift to the east of the state next weekend with sufficient moisture
for small footprint showers and storms over and near the high
terrain. High temperatures will be near to above average Friday
through next Monday.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
657 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Current radar imagery shows areas of conv firing to
the W and NW of the RGV airports early this evening. Satl imagery
shows generally VFR conditions prevailing outside of the conv with
high level cirrus blowing off to the east. A surface boundary has
drifted into the NE sections of Deep South TX and will likely
remain a focusing mechanism for conv across the region later this
evening through Tues AM. Expect VFR to MVFR ceilings to prevail
initially in the current OOZ TAF set. Aviation conditions will
then likely degrade pretty quickly later this evening as CAMS
guidance pushes a pretty large conv complex through the RGV
overnight. A 500 mb trough axis will then clear through the area
late on Tues which will likely improve the aviation conditions
after 00Z Wed allowing for better chcs at VFR ceilings/vsbys.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/
..Slight risk of severe weather across portions of Deep South
Texas tonight through Tuesday morning...
..Heavy rainfall potential continues across Deep South Texas
through Tuesday morning...
SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): A deep mid to upper
level trough will continue to edge into the Central U.S. today and
deepen into the southern plains tonight into Tuesday. A cutoff
low forms at the base of this trough on Tuesday and sets up over
central Texas.
This morning`s sounding showed ample instability with CAPE near 3000
J/kg at BRO and negligible CIN. With surface moisture continuing to
stream in from the Gulf over the region today and this ample
instability in place, the atmosphere over Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley is primed for convection. A vort max will rotate
around the base of the trough this evening as a weak cold front
approaches the region. These surface and upper level forcings will
provide all that`s needed to spark convection across central and
southern Texas this evening and into tonight. Models show that the
initially discrete cells form and then merge into an MCS in south
central Texas, which then bows out and moves through Deep South
Texas and the RGV late tonight into Tuesday morning. However, the
last couple runs of the HRRR show two separate systems forming this
evening, one near San Antonio near the cold front and the other
across Zapata and Webb Counties. Both of these systems would pass
through late tonight into tomorrow morning. Regardless of if there
is one main system or two, there is a potential for severe
thunderstorm winds, hail, and isolated flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a slight risk for severe
weather across all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for
tonight and most of our area in a marginal risk for Tuesday morning.
The primary threats include damaging wind and hail with these
storms. In addition to the severe weather threat, the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has included all of Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight
through Tuesday. This means that isolated flash flooding will be
possible as these storms move through the area during the short
term. WPC`s Day 1-2 QPF shows most of Deep South Texas receiving
1.00" to 3.00" of total rainfall through 7 AM CDT Wednesday, but
locally higher amounts are possible.
Tonight`s temperatures will be similar to what we saw last night
with lows generally be in the lower to mid 70s, and Tuesday night
will be slightly cooler behind the front with lows in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. Tomorrow afternoon will be warm, but slightly cooler
than normal with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): The global models are in
fairly good agreement with the 500mb low/trough across northeast
and east Texas Wednesday. The northwest flow aloft across the
western half of the state will bring drier air aloft across south
Texas and low to mid level moisture will diminish across the area
as a result. Subsidence will continue across southwest Texas
Thursday with the upper level low/trough across Arkansas into
Louisiana. The rest of the forecast period is dependent on the
development of a 500mb shortwave trough or 500mb low developing
across southwest Texas Thurs night and there are differences
between the GFS and ECMWF with the location of the upper feature
Friday but they both prog relatively high rain chances Friday. Low
to mid level moisture is expected to remain high across northeast
Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley through the weekend into early
next as a shear axis develops along the Texas coast Saturday
between the 500mb ridge across the southwest United States and the
500mb ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition...the
global models prog a 500mb low/inverted trough across northern
Mexico. That upper level feature is expected to move slowly
westward through the rest of the forecast period and rain chances
should gradually diminish through Sunday into Monday as the upper
level ridge across the southern plains Sunday amplifies across
east Texas.
MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): Buoy 42020 is reporting seas
near 3 feet and southeast winds around 10 knots. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible tonight through mid-day Tuesday as a
weak cold front approaches the area. These storms could bring strong
winds and frequent cloud-to-water lighting. Localized winds and seas
will likely be affected by any outflows produced by any strong
storms that may develop. Winds and seas will gradually subside
Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday...Light north to northeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday with surface high
pressure across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Winds will veer to
the southeast Wed night and increase as the surface ridge across
the western Gulf of Mexico moves weakens and low pressure across
west Texas allows the pressure gradient to increase across the
lower Texas coast. Light to moderate southeast winds Wed night
will veer to the south to southeast Thursday. A convective frontal
boundary is expected to move through the coastal waters Friday and
winds will shift to the northwest and increase in the wake of the
front. Moderate to strong northwest winds Friday morning will
become light and variable Friday evening with a weak coastal
trough developing across the western Gulf. Weak coastal troughing
is expected to continue across the western Gulf Saturday and winds
will remain light and variable across the coastal waters as a
result.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ256-257-351.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term/Upper Air/Graphicasts...65/56
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020
Overview: A narrow upper trough /shear axis/ presently situated
over the High Plains will weaken as it progresses slowly east
toward the MS River Valley.. and an amplifying ridge over the
Desert Southwest extends northeast toward the 4-Corners/Central
Rockies.
Through Tonight: Ongoing showers east of Highway 83 will continue
to wane as a drier /more stable/ airmass advects into the region
from the N-NNW this afternoon -- dissipating altogether AOA
sunset. Expect clearing skies this evening and overnight, with
lows ranging from the upper 30s (eastern CO) to the lower-mid 40s
in KS/NE.
Tue-Tue night: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the
upper trough /shear axis/ progresses across the Tri-State area and
into the Central Plains. Interestingly, guidance suggests that
southerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned shear axis will `pick up` shortwave energy
presently crossing the Red River into OK, lifting it northward
through Eastern KS (tonight) and Eastern NE (Tue) as a mesoscale
low -- possibly enhanced via a feedback cycle associated with deep
convection /latent heat release/ (check out 18Z HRRR simulated
reflectivity forecasts). Regardless, this feature should have
little or no impact on the Tri-State area.
Wed-Wed night: Guidance suggests that small amplitude shortwave
energy -- progged to move ashore the PAC NW (WA/OR) Tue evening --
will progress ESE through Idaho into the Central/Northern Rockies
Wed eve/night.. along the NNE-NE periphery of the amplifying
upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. If this is the case,
scattered convection may develop on ridges along the immediate lee
of the Rockies late Wed aft/eve, possibly propagating downstream
into Northeast CO late Wed eve/night, though -- with poor diurnal
timing and an underwhelming (relatively stable) airmass,
precipitation chances appear low, at best. Given that the small
amplitude wave in question will not move ashore the PAC NW for
another 24 hours -- considerable uncertainty persists with regard
to precipitation chances north and west of Goodland Wed eve/night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020
For the extended, the upper-level models are showing ridging over
the Western U.S., a major shortwave over the Northern Plains, a
cutoff low over the TX-OK-AR Tri-State area, and ridging along the
eastern seaboard. The cutoff low will begin to fill and be absorb
into the short-wave trough. This trough is expected to extend
over the Great Lakes region down into the Southeastern States by
this Saturday; allowing for the ridge to move into and build over
the High Plains. This upper-level ridge, along with its associated
surface high pressure, will influence the local area for the rest
of the period with dry conditions and above normal highs.
Anticipate the highs to reach the lower 90s by next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Mon May 25 2020
High pressure building over the region will provide both
terminals with VFR conditions during the forecast period. There
will be a scattered mix of low and high clouds thru about 02z
Tuesday, then just high clouds.
Winds for KGLD, N 10-20kts thru 02z Tuesday, then 5-10kts. By
09z, NNW around 10kts becoming N around 5-10kts by 21z Tuesday
afternoon.
Winds for KMCK, NNE 10-20kts thru about 02z Tuesday, then
light/variable. By 14z, NW around 10kts becoming N by 22z Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
948 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Will update zones to lower pops significantly tonight and remove
severe wording per latest trends and incoming guidance.
Decreased qpf grid rest of tonight.
No other changes. Updated products to be sent shortly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/
DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
CIGs will improve over the next six hours going from BKN040-060 to
unlimited. Winds are diminishing and will shift around from the
southeast at TAF sites west of the Pecos River.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows an upper-lvl trough over eastern New Mexico, moving
into Texas this afternoon. At the sfc, a cold front was moving into
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This, combined w/cloud cover
east of the Pecos, is resulting in temps more like late April than
late May. Also as a result, mesoanalysis shows the cap slow to
erode...and instability slow to increase, which may hinder some of
the convective development expected this afternoon. The HRRR seems
to be coming around to this, developing the Pecos supercell first 20-
21Z, and convection later N-NW. Instability in the lwr Trans Pecos
is forecast to increase to mucapes over 3000 J/kg by late afternoon,
w/dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg, mid-lvl lapse rates over 7 C/km,
and deep-lyr shear in excess of 60 kts rounding the base of the
trough, for another round of severe storms. As the front moves
south, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A few hours of high
gap winds through Guadalupe Pass are likely, as well.
The upper trough is forecast to strengthen farther south into Texas
over the next few days, and close off over the Arklatex by midweek,
before opening up over the se CONUS by the weekend. This will leave
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft much
of the workweek, with a weak ridge building in over the weekend.
Temps will attempt to rebound Wed, but models bring in yet another
cold front Thu/Thu night, keeping highs in the 80s most locations
thru the weekend. The ECMWF and Canadian aren`t as bullish on this
as the GFS/NAM/NBM, so temps may trend upward over the next few
days, but for now, we`ll keep things below normal. Rain chances
look slim-to-none in the extended, save for some isolated activity
over the south over the weekend in easterly upslope flow.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 79 57 91 / 60 20 0 0
Carlsbad 54 84 57 95 / 10 10 0 0
Dryden 62 86 61 95 / 50 20 0 10
Fort Stockton 57 82 60 93 / 30 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 49 76 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
Hobbs 51 80 54 91 / 20 20 0 0
Marfa 48 81 50 91 / 20 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 81 58 92 / 30 20 0 0
Odessa 56 81 58 92 / 30 20 0 0
Wink 55 85 58 96 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
700 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
Updated aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
RAP MLCIN shows the cap is gone, with CU fields taking shape
across the CWFA, a precursor to another afternoon and evening of
scattered thunderstorm activity. Some of the stronger storms will
be capable of locally heavy rain, and strong wind gusts given the
favorable lapse rates aloft and mid level dry air. Very little
confidence in CAMs guidance in this regime. Will use Satellite
trends, and zones of convergence to keep up with PoPs trends into
the early evening. Chances will diminish tonight, then pick up
again Tuesday, very much diurnal in nature. Otherwise used NBM
guidance for temps, highs mid to upper 80s Tuesday, with high dew
point air remaining in place.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
Models show a cutoff low centered over northeast Texas by 06z
Wednesday, slowly moving over Arkansas by 00z Friday. This feature
becomes a well defined upper trof as it finally makes a little more
significant eastward progression Thursday night through Saturday. By
Thursday, models show a surface cold front moving into the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys, finally moving east of the PAH
forecast area by 00z-06z Saturday.
For Tuesday night through Wednesday night, our convective activity
will be mostly associated with the upper low/trof. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the period, with the best
chances in the afternoon and early evening, and chances decreasing
somewhat overnight due to loss of heating. The best chances through
this period will be over west and southwest portions of the PAH fa
because of closer proximity to the low.
For Thursday into Friday, the cold front will be the main focus of
our convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely
across our entire area on Thursday, and chances will remain high to
likely into Thursday night and Friday as the front is slowly moving
across the region. Chances will decrease from north to south Friday
night. The front will linger south of our region into Saturday, and
this will continue the potential for isolated to scattered showers
through the day, with the best chances across west Kentucky and
southeast Missouri.
There looks to finally be a break in our wet weather pattern as
models are in good agreement showing a surface high building over
the Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday. The surface high
will gradually slide east into Monday as an upper level ridge builds
just to our west. It will remain warm but humidity should be lower.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020
VFR conditions are expected outside of lingering shower activity
this evening. Southeasterly winds less than 10 kts can be expected
overnight, with a slight veer to the south after daybreak and an
increase to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered (hit and miss) shower and tstm
activity will return Tue afternoon, with the best coverage
generally west of the MS River.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DB