Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/16/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 With this update we blended 00Z HRRR guidance into the going forecast to bump precipitation chances up slightly in areas along the South Dakota border. Confidence in chances further north is low as the mid-level low is forecast to stay well into the South Dakota side. Otherwise current radar and lightning detector trends show coverage of showers is on its way down in the southwest with no recent sign of lightning. Water vapor imagery shows the next shortwave making its way into central Wyoming, with at least several more hours to go before associated ascent and precipitation will increase along our south. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue for areas generally south and west of the Missouri River, centered on Stark/Hettinger counties. Aloft a subtle shortwave trough was over northwest South Dakota while a deeper trough was just upstream over western Wyoming. As the upstream trough begins to dig slightly southeast by early Saturday morning, ascent should remain over areas along the ND/SD border. But while loss of daytime heating and the progressively weaker support from the first shortwave should decrease precipitation coverage this evening, recent runs of the HRRR continue showers in the southwest through the overnight hours as DCVA from the next wave increases. Low-mid level forcing mechanisms look rather weak and instability sparse so we refrained from adjusting PoPs upward for now...but this will need to be reevaluated in the next forecast update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 The main issue in the short term period will be shower and thunderstorm chances. Currently, showers were located from around Dickinson, west to around Beach and then west and south to Glendive and Baker Montana. The showers in North Dakota are along an area of surface convergence within an area of weak Cape (around 250-500 J/KG) and no deep layer shear, but steep low level lapse rates. This weakly unstable airmass will remain through early to mid evening. With a weak mean flow, those that do see some showers or possible thunder could see some locally decent rainfall amounts. Overall, we trended lower and farther south with the precipitation tonight and into Saturday, keeping the best chances right along the ND/SD border as an upper level wave tracks across South Dakota. The widespread lower 30s and upper 20s we experienced this morning will be replaced by overnight lows mainly in the 40s. Some upper 30s are possible along the International Border, and possibly the southwest if they clear out late tonight. Saturday will be dry for most, with seasonable cool temperatures in the mid 50s along the SD border, to around 70 near the Canadian border. We will maintain some chance pops in the far south. A few diurnally driven showers are possible mainly west of the Highway 83 corridor Saturday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Warm early then Thunderstorm chances increase by mid week. An upper level ridge builds over the area in the wake of the exiting SD upper wave, bringing warming temperatures to start the week. The latest blended guidance is giving mid 80s in the far west on Monday with 70s for the rest of the forecast area. The ridge axis slides east late Monday as a strong Pacific low pushes onshore. Well above average temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s are expected for Tuesday, with precipiation chances entering the forecast Tuesday evening. Instability will be on the increase, so the threat for strong to severe convection will be possible, but there may also be some capping issues Tuesday for portions of the area. The deep low is expected to push over the Rockies mid-week and gradually lift into the northern Rockies, though the timing and exact placement remains in question. Nonetheless, an unsettled pattern remains over our area, keeping rain chances through the remainder of the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers and a thunderstorm possible at KDIK through this evening and then MVFR cigs expected Saturday morning. VFR conditions expected at other sites through the TAF period. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two continue this evening in the vicinity of KDIK, though it appears most activity has been avoiding the airport so far as convection has slowly shifted off to the southeast. Kept -SHRA and VCTS in the TAF until 02Z with radar indicating precipitation very near the airport at the beginning of the TAF period. Cloud cover will increase along the south, introducing MVFR cigs into KDIK by 12Z. This cloud cover should stay further south in areas east of KDIK like KBIS-KJMS, which were kept VFR in the TAFs. VFR also expected at other terminals across western and central North Dakota. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...AE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1126 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over upstate New York will track across southern New Hampshire and the southern tip of Maine spawning widespread showers and thunderstorms this evening. Along and south of the low track will be the area most likely to see thunderstorms containing large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The low will race offshore tonight with high pressure and drier air to follow for Saturday and Saturday night. Low pressure will approach from the west late Sunday, before slipping south of the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 1125 PM...Update to add fog to the forecast. Plenty of low levell moisture in place and a weak gradient for most of the night may lead to dense fog in some areas. 955 PM Update... A few changes to the forecast based on current trends. 655 PM Update... Straight-line wind damage appears to be about to occur in southern NH at the moment. Nice bowing segment is moving east quickly into far southern NH. To the north, we are seeing scattered rain showers. Expecting some lightning/thunder across southern NH and SW ME over the next 1-3 hrs. Minor changes to the forecast database for this update; and will keep with severe wording over southern NH. At 18z a 1008 millibar low was centered over eastern Lake Ontario with a warm front extending eastward through southern and western New England. The trailing cold front extended through the lower lakes and upper midwest. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed an area of showers across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec that will cross the mountains through central Maine this evening as that area remains mired in the cooler and more stable air north of the warm front. Further area of blossoming convection was developing across the lower lakes and nearby upstate New York in response to strengthening wind field and increasing instability ahead of shortwave impulse. Through this evening...CAMS brings a broken line of convection into New England by early evening with the best chance for strong and severe convection largely limited to western and southern New Hampshire and perhaps the southern tip of Maine with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. However...a few of the strongest cells could produce some marginal severe hail as well. The HRRR trend over the past several hourly runs has been to shift the strongest convection and best stability a bit further south and west in our CWA. In any event...this will be a short-lived event with most guidance having the bulk of the convection offshore by late evening...with only a few lingering showers across northern and eastern sections overnight. I expect some patchy fog and stratus to develop overnight as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, a weak area of high pressure will build in from the north. Partial sunshine is expected along with temperatures slightly above normal with 60s most areas...except for a few low 70s over southern interior New Hampshire. Partly cloudy under the ridge Saturday night with lows in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upcoming pattern portends to unsettled weather into Midweek. With amplified trough and eventually potential closed low to our south we expect rain chances to increase Sunday night and especially Monday. Thereafter, continued unsettled weather is expected, but the degree of which is uncertain at this time because there is uncertainty in the disposition of upper level low pressure and the increasingly blocky pattern. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /Through Sat night/...Areas of MVFR developing in SHRA by evening with sct strong to severe TSRA possible along and south of a KLEB to KSFM line through 01z Sat. Overnight... lingering areas of MVFR cigs and isold -SHRA with lcl IFR psb in fog. Becoming VFR throughout aft 12z Sat. Long Term...VFR on Sunday gives way to MVFR Sunday night and IFR by 12z Monday as low pressure approaches and spreads low clouds and rain in our direction. These lower conditions can be expected at least through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA thresholds through the period. However...behind the exiting surface low overnight there could be a brief surge of winds with gusts approaching 25 kt. Long Term...Slow moving low pressure is likely to bring an increase in winds and seas Sunday night and Monday which will continue right through midweek. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ JC/MC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 A midlevel cold front has been the focus for showers this morning across swrn Nebraska. The front will lift northwest into the Sandhills and northwest Nebraska and become the focus for heavy rainfall across much of western and north central Nebraska tonight and Saturday. Upper level dynamics wrn WY this afternoon will move progressively east tonight and Saturday and the models show either a closed compact h700mb low or sharp h700mb trof forming across swrn Nebraska. The main forcing will be across SD and the models are suggesting 1 to nearly 2 inches of rainfall across parts of SD and Neb. The system will be competing for moisture with storms forming over wrn KS and OKLA tonight. This could disrupt moisture transport into Nebraska and lessen rainfall amounts. The rain forecast follows the short term model blend and WPC for likely to definite POPs tonight. Given the progressive motion of the storm system (east at 20 mph) and the potential for a dry air intruding from the storms across the midsouth, the prospect of excessive of rainfall is uncertain. 3 hour FFG values are 2 inches or less across swrn Nebraska so there is some concern for at least minor flooding. The severe weather potential appears to be very modest. The warm air advection will have to come across the Rockies and Laramie range. The preferred location is ern Colo directed at the Neb Panhandle or swrn Neb but sfc winds across ern Colo will be backed to the east and southeast preventing warm air from surging north up the high plains. The RAP model shows a dryline bulge approaching Pine Ridge this afternoon and this is probably the reason the models show storm genesis in that area. There is also an inverted trof in that area for moisture focus. Winds aloft at h500mb are strong at 30-40kts supporting strong shear and moisture is plentiful. Lapse rates should be steep initially across wrn Nebraska but Bufkit shows moisture and moist adiabatic lapse rates overwhelming the soundings. The HRRR suggests a developing linear thunderstorm complex driven by a robust cold pool and instability sufficient for maintenance. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 A fairly strong piece of Canadian high pressure will build into the wrn and ncntl Nebraska in the wake of the exiting storm Saturday. This high will move off east Sunday and Monday with modest warming commencing Monday. There is very little change in the forecast highs Sunday or Monday. Sfc low pressure will form on the nrn high Plains Tuesday and remain in place Wednesday. These two days should be the warmest days next week with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. The model blended forecast suggests a Pacific cold front Wednesday night will be the focus for thunderstorms across wrn Nebraska. The front will stall across ncntl Nebraska Thursday and isolated thunderstorms are in place Thursday and Friday. No big cool down is expected behind the front. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers and thunderstorms were numerous from the southern Nebraska panhandle into the central Sandhills north of Mullen. This area is expected to persist and move eastward near 20 mph. This is expected to reach the KLBF terminal between 04Z and 05Z. Visibility from heavy rain could lower to 2SM or less with wind VRB20G30KT. This should move east of the KLBF terminal by 09Z. After 09Z, an IFR ceilings and 3SM visibility should persist until 15Z. Thereafter, ceilings should improve to MVFR, then VFR after 20Z. At KVTN, -SHRA possible at times until 06Z, followed by an MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR 12Z to 20Z, then to MVFR through end of TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
945 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 944 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Latest surface analysis showed that the cold front has moved to the Missouri/Arkansas border with light winds across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms have moved into Kentucky, so backed down on PoPs across the CWA until late tonight when the RAP shows an increase in low level moisture convergence over the area in weak southerly flow. Satellite imagery showed extensive convective debris clouds streaming from thunderstorms over the Southern Plains, though there has been some recent thinning. Can`t rule out some patchy fog developing overnight given the light winds and moist boundary layer. Made only minor adjustments to going lows based on observations. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Atmosphere remains rather stable over the region from the early morning activity today. So focus shifts back to the stalled frontal boundary that is near the MO/AR border as of 20z. It will become a warm front and begin to slowly lift northward towards the forecast area late tonight. In the meantime, with light winds and plenty of low level moisture, could see some patchy fog develop, especially across portions of southeast Missouri. Added mention after 06z Saturday. Other issue is the chance for isolated showers and perhaps a clap of thunder, so kept slight/low chance pops along and south of I-70. On Saturday the warm front will slide northward through the region in response to the approaching upper level system from the west and backing flow aloft. Expect scattered showers and a few storms during the morning hours with this boundary, then focus then shifts to warm sector south of the warm front. ML CAPES between 500 and 1000 J/kg are expected by the afternoon with weak shear (around 10 to 15 kts), but still sufficient enough for isolated severe storms, mainly along and north of I-70 during the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Saturday night, main cold front will begin to slide through region with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. Lows will be a bit above normal tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, in the mid 70s to low 80s, then lows Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Showers and storms likely Sunday morning as cold front moves through. Then activity will taper off by early Sunday evening as surface ridge builds into region. So dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period. As for temperatures, the synoptic set up remains favorable for an omega block pattern that will keep the region in the northwest flow aloft, so temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through most of the work week, before temperatures begin to moderate once again. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 Dry and VFR conditions are expected through late tonight. Some fog is expected to develop over southeast Missouri with MVFR or IFR conditions. MVFR ceilings will develop at the terminals after 12Z on Saturday morning, but rise above 3000FT by late morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into the area during the morning hours, and they will become more numerous during the afternoon. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
738 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mainly zonal pattern through the northern CONUS. The compact mid level low or shortwave that brought shra/tsra through the Keweenaw and eastern Lake Superior was exiting to the east of Lake Superior. THe next significant upstream shrtwv was moving through the northern Rockies. High pressure from northern Manitoba into nw Minnesota was building into the area bringing northerly flow through Upper Michigan. Diurnal heating and mixing has helped to bring some clearing with mainly sct/bkn cu developing. Tonight, mid level and surface ridging building into the areas with light winds and mostly clear skies will allow temps to drop into the mid to upper 30s. With afternoon dewpoints still in the low to mid 40s, expect some fog to develop, especially over the northwest and east. Saturday, partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to increasing mid/high clouds as WAA/isentropic lift develops ahead of the mid level trough moving through the northern Plains. An area of rain associated with strengthening mid level fgen may bring some pcpn into the far west late. However, the initial band of rain may be slowed by the low level dry air over Upper Michigan where afternoon dewpoints in the mid 30s are expected. Expect enough sunshine to boost temps into the mid 50s inland while readings remain in the lower to mid 50s along the Great Lakes. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 357 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2020 Overall, Saturday night/Sunday will be a soggy end to the weekend with widespread chances for rain. Models still are not in the best agreement with overall rainfall amounts, but confidence is highest across the south-central for locations to pick up around 1-2 inches of rain. Early through middle parts of next week, upper-level ridging becomes highly amplified across the central CONUS and upper Great Lakes as a weak omega block develops across the lower 48. This blocking pattern will allow Upper Michigan to remain under the influence of persistent warm air advection and above-normal temperatures next week. Saturday night through Sunday, shortwave energy will track across the western Great Lakes, with the associated surface low tracking across southern parts of Wisconsin and lower Michigan. As warm air advection and isentropic lift increase, widespread rain is expected to lift into the area late Saturday night, pivoting across the area and lingering through much of Sunday. As noted above, confidence is highest for locations across the south-central to pick up 1-2 inches of rain. However, given the system`s track and northeast 850mb flow persisting across the region as the main 850mb low tracks south of the Upper Peninsula, locally enhanced rainfall amounts are expected across the higher terrain across the west and north-central. While warmer conditions aloft should keep the low-levels more stable, 40- 50 knots of shear just off the surface should occasionally mix down with the expected rain activity. Thus, did boost wind gusts up into the 20-30 mph range. This wind direction and enhanced onshore over Lake Michigan may cause some concerns for lakeshore flooding along the southern shoreline of the Bay of Green Bay. Monday and Tuesday, high pressure from Canada drops south across the Upper Great Lakes bringing a drying trend to the region. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level drying so did end up adjusting dew points down quite a bit to reflect these expected conditions. Thankfully, we will see some widespread rain leading into these drier conditions, as temperatures look to climb into the 60s and 70s for much of the area. The dry weather continues through middle parts of the week, with a warming trend as upper-level ridging remains amplified across the region and a deep trough over the central and northern Rockies ever so slowly moves east into the northern Plains. This pattern will favor strengthening 850mb flow and increasing warm air advection. Still no precipitation concerns until Friday, but temperatures do look to climb 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 738 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2020 VFR conditions should largely prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. However, as winds become light/calm tonight with high pressure arriving and since some low-level moisture lingers, fog may develop. If fog develops, it`s uncertain how dense the fog may become. For now, only included MVFR vis in fog at KCMX overnight, but not out of the question that fog could develop at KSAW as well. Any fog that develops will quickly burn off within a couple of hrs of sunrise. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2020 Some patchy fog over mainly the southern end of the lake is expected to persist into the early evening. As high pressure builds in and that moisture becomes trapped some fog may redevelop tonight and possibly into Saturday. However, given afternoon satellite trends, expect that the probability of additional widespread dense fog is low. Winds should generally remain light through Saturday. Low pressure passing to the south of Upper Michigan is expected to boost northeast winds to around 25 knots Sunday. Otherwise, winds should remain below 20 knots into next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244- 250-251. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2020 Currently...radar indicates shower activity developing from the La Garita range, northeast into the Palmer Divide region, as well as the southern I-25 corridor early this afternoon. Temperatures are pleasant, with lower to mid 70s across the lower elevations. Winds are southeasterly across the Plains helping to keep moisture pooled across the Plains. Rest of mentioned, southeasterly winds and slowly eroding stratus clouds have allowed moisture to remain pooled across the Plains and limiting mixing for this afternoon. Dewpoints are in the mid to upper 40s across much of the Plains. This has allowed for CAPE values to climb above 1000 j/kg, and should increase to near 1500 j/kg over the next couple of hours. The latest HRRR has shifted the 0-6km bulk shear max a bit further south, mainly along and north of Highway 50. High-res model guidance has 0-6km shear around 40 to 45 kts. Energy embedded in the westerly flow should help to trigger showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Based on the high-res model consensus, the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms looks to be east of I-25 and north of Highway 50 through this evening. Shear and CAPE profiles should promote sustained updrafts and organized convection. Stronger storms will be capable of producing hail in excess of 1 inches in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph along with lightning. South of Highway 50, convection will be more isolated to scattered. CAPE values over 1500 j/kg should support strong updrafts, however, weaker shear values may limit severe potential, although one or two may be possible. Tonight...expect thunderstorm activity to shift east across the Plains through the overnight hours, exiting into Kansas by Saturday morning. At the surface, a weak cold front will drop south behind the departing thunderstorms through the morning. Overnight lows will remain mild with 40s to lower 50s across the region. Saturday...upper level ridging over the Intermountain West will shift eastward through the afternoon. At the surface, low level flow will shift southeasterly over the Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected by the afternoon hours, initiating over the Mountains, and spreading into the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa by the evening. Given the lack of shear and energy moving across Colorado, thunderstorm coverage will be less, with isolated to scattered activity through the evening. Lightning, hail to near an inch and gusty outflow winds to near 50 mph are all possible. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2020 Saturday Night and Sunday: A frontal passage earlier in the day, visible via surface pressure fields, will shift winds to the northeast, which is a favorable orientation for upslope flow over the eastern mountains. There will be around 600 to 700 J/kg over the southeast mountains. Model guidance agrees with the outcome and has continuously indicated that some heavier rain will fall Saturday evening over the eastern mountains. With the CAPE in place and the QPF remaining over the mountains, there will be a flash flood risk in place over the Spring Burn scar during Saturday evening. Sunday morning and early afternoon will remain relatively quiet as 500hPa heights increase throughout the day. MSLP fields indicate a tight gradient forming over the plains, which will advect moisture from the south. In the mid afternoon, the moisture will reach the Palmer Divide and a weak shortwave trough will propagate over southern Colorado. The combination of the two will spark thunderstorms over the Palmer and the storms have the potential to become severe. There will be around 1200 J/kg of CAPE present and around 25 to 35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Looking at the thermodynamic profile, the cloud bases will be higher, so the main risk potential will be for strong winds, around 60 mph, and isolated quarter sized hail. Monday: Southwesterly flow aloft returns to southern Colorado increased critical fire weather potential for the San Luis Valley and the I-25 corridor. The temperatures on Monday will be quite warm with high temperatures over the plains expected to be in the mid 90s and the mountain valleys in the mid 80s. Precipitation potential seems minimal, but there may be an isolated shower and thunderstorm over the mountains. Tuesday through Friday: A closed low is forecast to travel towards southern Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some Pacific based moisture is expected to reach Colorado on Tuesday afternoon, which is expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. There will be around 500 J/kg of CAPE over the mountains, so the instability values aren`t too high. Even with the lower CAPE values over the mountains, there is still a potential for flash flooding over the Spring, Decker, Hayden Pass, and Junkins burn scars on Tuesday afternoon. The upper low propagates over central Colorado on Wednesday and there will be the potential for thunderstorms over the far eastern plains, as a dryline sets up. Model guidance is mixed about what will occur, but the impacts seem minimal at this point. There are some major timing issues of when the closed low will propagate over Colorado, which will also throw a wrench in thunderstorm development. At this point in time, there is a low risk for storms over the far eastern plains. On Thursday and Friday there will be lee cyclones developing over the eastern plains, which could set up a dryline over the far eastern plains, but the models are resolving the main moisture plume to be in Kansas on both afternoons. Enhanced potential for critical fire weather conditions will be in place over the San Luis Valley, the upper Arkansas River Valley, and parts of the eastern plains from Tuesday through Friday afternoons. A jet streak forms over the region on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, which puts the "best" fire weather conditions during those afternoons. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 247 PM MDT Fri May 15 2020 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours with passing mid and high clouds into this evening. A few wind gusts to near 20 to 25 kts are possible this afternoon. KCOS and KPUB...showers and thunderstorms will be possible at both terminals this afternoon and evening. Reduced CIGS and VIS will accompany thunderstorms that move over the terminals. A weak cold front will drop south at the terminals tonight, with low stratus possible into Saturday morning. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible on Saturday afternoon. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...MOZLEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
935 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Daytime MCS has worked over the atmosphere across most of the forecast area, with some lingering instability noted across far southeast OK. In light of recent HRRR runs, have lowered PoPs and thunder chances the remainder of the night. Updated products have been sent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 78 62 77 / 20 70 50 0 FSM 66 78 65 78 / 30 80 80 30 MLC 64 76 64 78 / 40 80 60 10 BVO 63 78 59 76 / 20 70 40 0 FYV 63 76 62 74 / 20 80 80 30 BYV 62 75 62 73 / 20 80 80 40 MKO 64 77 63 77 / 30 70 60 10 MIO 63 77 60 74 / 20 60 60 0 F10 64 76 62 77 / 30 70 50 10 HHW 66 75 65 79 / 50 80 60 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18