Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/15/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1045 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Per GOES imagery at 18Z, a partial clearing trend continues as cellular stratocumulus is widespread over the forecast area. The surface wind pattern is quite muddled and thus have gone upstairs a bit to resolve where convergence will be favored later today. In the last 1-2 RAP/HRRR/HRRR Dev runs, there has been a slight step southward with northern edge of storm development later this afternoon. HRRR/HRRRdev reflectivity also confirms the southern trend. Partial clearing in eastern IA and northern IL is allowing some warming and dewpoints are now 60-63F near Hwy 20. Latest RAP theta-e convergence in the 850-925 mb layer is on KDBQ, with a RAP modified sounding for 68/62F yielding about 500 J/Kg. If temps rise more, we may go to 750 J/KG. But alas, the bit further south location has possibly begun a decreasing storm trend for Grant and Clayton counties. Will continue to monitor this trend before the forecast is updated. SBCAPE would have to overperform in the next hours to get a severe storm threat as well, but supercell shear is in place. There will be a passing shower chance across northcentral WI from the strong shortwave trough currently shifting east over ND. This should pass a cold front through after midnight and usher in a good cold advection surge overnight. Low-level convergence and lapse rates are best over northern WI, with Taylor county on the southern edge of the shower chances per CAMS. Friday is a wonderful weather day. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Focus turns to Saturday afternoon into Sunday...the 14.12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in decent agreement in building surface ridge over the Eastern Great Lakes Region and southern Canada. Southerly moisture return flow increases late Saturday afternoon and evening mainly across the southern forecast advance of closed upper level low. With strong 500-300mb positive vorticity advection/forcing in association with the closed upper level low...showers/storms will be on the increase Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. Shower/storm chances taper off during the day the closed/surface low tracks into the Ohio River Valley. At this time...thunderstorms should remain below severe limits...with the 14.12z GFS/NAM show a few hundred 0-6km most unstable CAPE and bufkit soundings limited elevated instability across the southern parts of the forecast area. Main forecast concerns Sunday night into Thursday are temperatures through the period. The 14.12z GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in good agreement cutting off closed low over the eastern United States through the period and amplifying upper level ridge over the central United States. The 14.12z NAEFS continue to show 850mb temperatures standard anomalies in the 1 to 2 celsius degrees above normal across much of the forecast area through the period. High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and lower 80s. With the upper level ridge dominating the weather pattern for much of next week and subsidence under the ridge...forecast area will remain mainly dry through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Cirrus blown off from storms to our south will clear out of the area later tonight. Meanwhile a weak boundary dropping through the area will bring some passing VFR lower clouds. Expect mostly SKC by daybreak followed by some afternoon cu and increasing cirrus. Light winds will become northwesterly early this morning and eventually northerly by late afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baumgardt LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .AVIATION... No significant changes from the previous forecast. VFR conditions will prevail through the evening at all terminals with breezy southerly to southeasterly winds. MVFR ceilings will develop around midnight. Ceilings will drop to IFR in the San Antonio area late in the overnight period. There is chance for IFR in Austin, but we think it`s unlikely. Ceilings will rebound to VFR around noon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely starting Friday afternoon, but exact timing is too hard to pin down at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... For this afternoon and tonight a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through about sunset across areas east of Interstate 35. With rich Gulf moisture in place and dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 all it took was the sun coming out behind this morning`s complex of storms to kick off the isolated activity. Model soundings show convective temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, which we have already hit so the rising air created by the heating of the earth`s surface was enough lift to initiate the storms. The HRRR and other high resolution models show any activity quickly dying out this evening. Tonight and first half of Friday should be fairly quiet with low clouds forming overnight across most of the area. The long advertised trough will approach Texas tomorrow morning and begin to slowly move across the state. By tomorrow afternoon the trough will be located across the Trans-Pecos and Concho Valley. Here it will act as an additional source of lift for the sharp West Texas dryline and spark off initially isolated strong to severe storms west of our area in a very moist and instability rich environment (CAPES of over 2500 j/kg). Shear will be limited so the initial threat with these storms will be large hail as they approach the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau between about 4pm and 9pm. As the trough continues to move eastward it will begin to deepen and develop into a cut off low almost right over top of South Central Texas. The individual storms out west will form into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) and march eastward. At the same time the northern part of the trough will spark off another MCS across north Texas, the Red River, and Oklahoma. While specifics of the solutions differ most high resolution models (Texas Tech WRF, the SPC HREF members, etc.) show these two complexes impacting our area either nearly at the same time or a few hours apart between midnight and some time early Saturday morning. With these both being lines of storms the main severe weather threat will transition from a hail threat to a damaging thunderstorm wind threat as the line(s) approach the I-35 corridor. In addition to the severe threat there is also the continued threat for heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. While the more progressive and faster solutions put forth by the morning high resolution models might suggest lesser rainfall amounts, the tropical environment that we are in means that any of these storms could produce significant rainfall amounts in a short period of time. Tuesday`s event saw anywhere from 10-13 inches fall over Central Comal County in a matter of hours, while this morning`s system produced another quick 1-1.5 inches from Rocksprings to Western Bexar County. The precipitation we have seen this week just means that the drought stricken ground that we had seen up to this week is now at least partially waterlogged leading into the next major round of rain. This will increase runoff into the area creeks and stream causing concerns for low water crossings and possibly the main river systems as well. While questions remain about the evolution of the cut off low going into Saturday and Sunday which will ultimately help determine overall rainfall totals (discussed below in the long term) the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding means this event may be one of our first big overnight rainfall events this year. In South Central Texas it is ALWAYS important, especially at night, to Turn Around, Don`t Drown. Use caution while driving at night in flood prone areas, and frankly if you don`t have to travel during the heaviest rainfall just stay home and enjoy the storms. You do not know the condition of the roadway under the flowing water (it may be washed out completely!) and it only takes a lit bit of swift moving water to wash your car or truck downstream. There is always another route you can find or another time for that errand or trip. Driving into flooded lower water crossings puts you, your passengers, and first responders at an unnecessary risk. Also, remember to have at least three sources of receiving weather warnings Friday through Sunday. This could include Wireless Emergency Alerts, Local Alerting Systems like Warn Central Texas, Cell Phones, Social Media, TV, Radio, the Internet and more. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... The complex of showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall will continue to move from west to east through about noon Saturday. By early to mid Saturday afternoon it appears that the last of the heavy rainfall should be east of the region, although some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger. The majority of the guidance suggests that the heavy rainfall threat will be over for good by this time, although the NAM does keep the cutoff low over the region through Sunday night and produces another large amount of rainfall across portions of Central Texas on Sunday. However, most of the other models show just some isolated light showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night and into Sunday, and this NAM solution is being discounted by WPC as well. At this time we continue to message total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated pockets up to 5 inches for this weekend`s rainfall event. Ridging builds back in over the region by Sunday evening as the trough moves east into the Southeastern US. A few showers may continue to linger across the Coastal Plains on Monday, but otherwise the region should remain dry through Thursday aside from maybe a stray shower or storm on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the Coastal Plains. High temperatures will gradually warm from Monday through Thursday, with highs on Thursday ranging from the upper 80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas to the mid 90s along the Rio Grande. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 86 68 79 67 / - 30 80 80 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 86 68 79 66 / - 30 80 80 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 87 68 80 67 / 10 30 80 80 20 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 66 79 64 / - 30 80 70 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 90 68 92 69 / 10 40 80 20 - Georgetown Muni Airport 72 86 67 79 65 / - 30 80 80 30 Hondo Muni Airport 72 91 67 86 67 / 10 30 80 60 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 86 67 79 66 / 10 30 80 80 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 87 70 80 67 / 10 30 60 80 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 88 69 82 68 / 10 30 80 70 20 Stinson Muni Airport 74 88 70 82 69 / 10 30 80 70 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...05 Long-Term...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 126 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Satellite and 500 mb RAP analysis showed southwest flow aloft across the tri-state region today, with a closed low passing through the northern Plains. Cloud cover dissipated and pushed southeast through the morning, yielding sunny skies by the afternoon. At 1:30 PM MT, northerly winds were observed at 10 to 20 mph, with temperatures ranging in the 70s. A disturbance is expected to push through the flow, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region tonight. Storms will develop along the Front Range this afternoon and push into the region through the overnight hours. A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible, with the best chance of severe weather along and south of Interstate 70 in the late afternoon and early evening. Marginally severe hail and winds will be the main threats. Beyond this, am thinking weakened convection will traverse the area tonight. Will need to monitor for redevelopment along a frontal boundary extending across southern Kansas. Lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Southwesterly flow continues aloft on Friday, with high temperatures in the 70s and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph. A break from precipitation is expected during the day before a shortwave helps generate the next round of showers and storms. Convection is expected to develop along a lee trough in the afternoon and spread eastward into the region through the evening. Cannot rule out some organized/supercellular storms initially; however, current thinking is a line of storms/MCS will be the main mode with primary hazards of strong winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. The most likely area for severe weather will be along and west of Highway 27 and north of Interstate 70. If the MCS holds together, the threat could extend as far east as a McCook to Leoti line. Temperatures fall into the mid 40s to low 50s as storms pass through Friday night. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 244 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 An upper level shortwave trough moves across the northern Plains Saturday as high pressure builds over the western U.S. A ridge moves into the central U.S. Saturday night traversing eastward across the area through Tuesday night. A trough begins to move over the Intermountain West Tuesday. It lifts as it moves eastward with the associated closed low over Montana and Wyoming by Wednesday night. Troughing remains over the western U.S. as the closed low moves north northeast into south-central Canada Thursday. Southwest flow aloft sits over the Tri-State region Monday night through Thursday. High pressure sits over the Tri-State area Saturday through Tuesday night. Leeside troughing develops along the Front Range of the Rockies extending southward into eastern Colorado by Wednesday. As the surface trough shifts eastward with the axis along the CO/KS border by Thursday, a cold front begins to move into the CWA from the west northwest. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower 90s with lows in the lower 40s to lower 60s. Saturday and Saturday night will be the coolest time periods in the extended forecast period. There is a chance for some rain and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night before the forecast dries out through mid-week next week. Chances for thunderstorms return Wednesday evening. During the dry periods, there are a couple of elevated fire weather condition days expected. During the afternoon hours next Tuesday through Thursday, areas of low relative humidity values are expected mainly west of the Colorado border. Thursday has the largest area of low RH values across the CWA extending all the way eastward to Highway 83. Wind gusts of up to or exceeding 25 mph are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Much of the CWA has `greened up` but the fire weather threat still exists. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Cluster of high-based showers/isolated thunderstorms will move out of northeast Colorado early this evening, potentially impacting KGLD. Storms will continue to weaken, but may be accompanied by brief gusty winds in the 20-30 kt range. Overnight, patchy fog may develop with light easterly upslope flow in place. Confidence rather low at this time. After about 14z, any fog/low clouds will dissipate with VFR conditions expected through Friday afternoon. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JBH LONG TERM...NEWMAN AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Continue to watch storms develop across Chase county which is indicative of edge of the cap. Visibility satellite loop shows low southeast of KGBD, near Hudson. Thinking main chances for storms will be across Flint Hills and then into southeast KS during the night. There is also a small chance for remnants of northeast CO storms moving into central KS late tonight, but timing is a suspect suspect. Considerable uncertainty with expected elevated storms that several models develop in the 0600-0900 UTC time frame as low level jet increases convergence over boundary. Uncertainty stems from the variability in jet/boundary intersection, which has been considerable over the past couple of days. -Howerton && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 A trough is set up in the Plains with a secondary one off of the West Coast. The front associated with this system straddles from southern Iowa to central Kansas into southwest Kansas. After a cloudy day yesterday, the sun came out today. Temperatures rose to the 70s for most of the eastern half of the state with even the lower 80s along the Kansas and Oklahoma border. Attention turns to thunderstorm potential along the front this afternoon through tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Highlights: 1) Strong and severe thunderstorms southeast of KS Turnpike this evening and tonight 2) Strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Friday in portions of south central Kansas 3) Flooding including flash flooding 4) Thunderstorm potential Friday and Saturday Challenges: 1) Precipitation chances/coverage Friday 2) Rainfall amounts and respective flooding issues 3) Strength of convection on Friday and Saturday Changes: 1) Precipitation chances and respective timing 2) Slight increase in temps in central Kansas on Friday Headline: Flash Flood Watch this evening thru Saturday afternoon in portions of south central and southeast Kansas An active period will occur the next couple days with thunderstorms anticipated this evening thru Saturday. There is concern for severe storms especially this evening thru tonight with the possibility of hail up to golf ball size and 60 mph winds which maintains the same message as the last few forecasts. The movement of the front mentioned in the Synopsis section is expected to be the driving force for convective development as the instability rises especially east of the Kansas Turnpike this afternoon and evening with 0-3km MUCAPE of 3-4.5k J/kg and modest shear of 30-40kts at 0-6km. It is questionable if the storms could develop well out ahead of the front; CAMs are suggesting this may be a possibility, but the better chances definitely appear closer to the front. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it appears the convective mode would be multicell with potential supercells more likely in northeast Kansas and Missouri. There does appear to be somewhat of a linear component later on. Initial development may be close to 4PM in northeast Kansas with increasing coverage closer to the Flint Hills around 7PM. Thunderstorms are expected to back build further west into central and south central portions of the state tonight into early Friday as the front continues to track southeast. This front is moving slow which would enhance the flooding threat with storms staying closer to that boundary. There could be strong to severe storms mainly southeast of Kansas Highway 61 or southeast of a line from McPherson to Hutchinson to Pratt. Similar hazards are anticipated with hail up to golf ball size and 60 mph winds. The concern for flash flooding is on the uptick this evening as moisture continues to surge northeast with a focus in eastern Kansas. Rainfall totals the past seven days have ranged from 3 to above 5 inches in the Flint Hills. Additional convection could produce another 1 to 3 inches in well saturated areas with locally higher amounts possible the next couple of days. The Flash Flood Watch appears to be in line with the highest area of expected rainfall. Please see the hydrology section for more information. Friday afternoon - The better instability again looks like it will stay further to the south which would reduce the severe thunderstorm threat, but this is dependent on which model you decide is the most representative. There are suggestions by the RAP and GFS that CAPE will climb near 3k J/kg with 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear in the afternoon and evening hours along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. However, longevity of the morning activity could compromise the environment as well. At this point, the lean is possible strong thunderstorms with maybe some that approach severe criteria. Confidence is not high for this time period in regards to the strength of the storms. Saturday - The last day of this active period will be Saturday; the secondary wave which is just off the West Coast is expected to set up along the Front Range late Friday then move through the Plains on Saturday. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe potentially in south central and southeast Kansas. Stay tuned for updates on Friday and Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Highlights: Quieter and warmer An active week will be followed by a much quieter one as a ridge moves in Sunday through the middle of next week. The mid and upper levels form an Omega block pattern for the first part of the week across the CONUS. After the wet week, it will be nice to have a period to dry out. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s for Sunday and Monday then to the low to mid 80s by Wednesday. Seasonal normals are in the mid 70s. Low temperatures should stay in the 50s. Take advantage of those outdoor activities if you are able during this window. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Main concern is the timing and location of storms throughout most of the forecast. While chances are possible for most of the period, will limit thunderstorm to the high probability sites/time. The chance highest after midnight in KCNU and very late tonight at KICT and KHUT. Amount of lingering precipitation will be highly dependent on orientation of boundary and low level jet, items which models have not handled well of late. Expect ceilings to become MVFR where there is persistent rain/upslope flow towards daybreak and briefly in thunderstorms. -Howerton && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Flash Flood Watch from 6PM tonight thru 7PM Saturday Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this week which are expected to continue into Saturday only amplify the flooding threat. The highest rainfall totals in the last seven days have been across southern Kansas with 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts especially in the Flint Hills. As moisture transport increases tonight along with the precipitable water values of 1.25-1.75 inches, flooding is going to become a greater concern especially in the Flint Hills and areas to the east. The slow moving front will not help. Flooding and flash flooding very well may occur tonight and possibly the next couple of days in the low lying areas and in towns. While only a few river points are forecast to rise into action or flood stage at this time, there very well could be more depending on how much rain falls within the respective basins. Please stay weather aware and heed any road closures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 65 76 63 78 / 80 70 60 70 Hutchinson 62 73 61 76 / 80 50 60 50 Newton 63 73 62 75 / 80 60 70 70 ElDorado 64 75 62 77 / 80 70 70 80 Winfield-KWLD 66 78 64 79 / 80 70 60 70 Russell 57 74 57 75 / 60 40 70 40 Great Bend 59 71 59 76 / 80 40 60 40 Salina 60 75 61 75 / 30 50 70 60 McPherson 61 73 61 75 / 80 50 70 60 Coffeyville 66 75 65 79 / 90 90 70 90 Chanute 64 76 64 77 / 80 80 70 90 Iola 64 76 64 77 / 80 70 70 90 Parsons-KPPF 66 76 64 78 / 80 80 70 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KSZ069>072-083- 092>096-098>100. && $$ MESOSCALE...PJH SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...PJH HYDROLOGY...VJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
748 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon with moderate to heavy rain. The severe threat has diminished. Wet weather will continue into Friday. Saturday should be mostly dry, but more rain will move in Saturday night and Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Have made slight adjustments on POPs for the evening and overnight hours. Convection over the next few hours should be contained south of HWY 30 along the leading edge of an EML. Overall logic to the forecast hasn`t changed, another round of convection is expected as a shortwave moves across the mid-MS valley sending the ongoing convection over IA into the forecast area much later tonight. Deep layer shear continues to look on the lower side (20-25kt 0-6km) overnight while instability of 1000-2000 J/kg continues to migrate northwards accompanied by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. One feature which could help in the shear department is the MCV steadily moving northeast from southern MO. Given it`s current track, the center will likely slide across far NE IN/NW OH. This wouldn`t be a great trajectory for storm organization for most of the area, but if a storm can initiate on the east side of the center then it would be in a better environment. The HRRR has picked up on this feature which shows most of the additional storms developing on the N to NE side of the MCV north of Hwy 30. Should this prove true, then the MCV wouldn`t provide much aid to storm intensity. Continue to think the greatest severe hazards tonight remain strong to damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to flooding. Will likely add our remaining MI counties into the watch given the influences of the MCV allowing for a greater eastward expansion of storms as it moves north around midnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A shortwave currently over central Illinois is pushing an MCS across northern Indiana this afternoon, and will eventually move into northern Ohio. Showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain can therefore be expected through early evening. The forecast area remains in the warm sector with the warm front over southern Michigan and the cold front extending from Wisconsin back across the plains. It has become quite warm and humid with highs in the 60s north to mid 70s southeast, and dewpoints in the 60s. This has allowed the area to become fairly unstable with MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg. However, shear is marginal at around 30 kts and forecast to decrease this evening. With ongoing rain and associated cooling, expect instability to decrease as well, and a limited severe weather threat. Yet there could still be some gusty winds up to 45 mph. The current round of storms is expected to move out of the area by late evening. There may be a break in activity, and then another shortwave will move in from west around midnight with more showers and thunderstorms. The biggest threat with this complex will be heavy rain, especially across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. An additional 1 to 2 inches will be possible during this period, and some localized flooding or ponding of water could occur. A Flood Watch has been issued. The cold front will move through the area around mid-day Friday, pushing moisture eastward. By evening, most of the area will start to dry out and clouds will scatter. However, the front will stall over the Ohio Valley, and light rain could persist over the southeast counties. Despite the cold front, it will be mild on Friday with highs in the 70s except 60s near Lake Michigan. Highs are likely to occur early though, with cooler air moving in late afternoon with the front. && .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 A transitory ridge of high pressure will build in on Friday night into Saturday morning. Dry weather may not last long though, with another low pressure system poised to bring more rain and thunderstorms on Saturday night into Sunday as a deep closed low swings through the Great Lakes. Lingering showers due to wrap- around moisture are now also forecast to persist on Monday and possibly Tuesday as the low stalls over the SE US. Dry conditions should return for Wednesday and Thursday, but confidence is low since latest model runs hold onto the low through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Chances for convection will keep confidence low for the 00z TAf cycle. Initial round of convection has already gone through the terminals and we should see a lull of activity over the first couple of hours. Models show an additional round of convection possible for KFWA as a MCV over southern MO continues to move northeast with time. KSBN could miss out on convection from this feature and have it`s chances associated more with the eastward progression of the complex of storms over IA. Have made adjustments at both terminals to try to capture this brief lull and renewal of convection at the terminals. Given the slow progression of the convection and associated cold front, KSBN will likely see the greatest impacts overnight. A Prolonged period of degraded ceilings and visby is expected when convection moves over the terminals. Outside of the initial convection may have to wait until closer to 12z for the front to bring convection to the terminals. Have also maintained LLWS mention overnight as a strong LLJ moves over the terminals and surface winds drop below 10kt. An return to VFR is possible at the very end of this TAF cycle as the cold front moves southeast of the terminals. Have introduced this improvement with this issuance. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Friday morning for INZ003>005-012-014. MI...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MIZ077>079. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CM SYNOPSIS...Cobb SHORT TERM...Cobb LONG TERM...Cobb AVIATION...CM Visit us at Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 The NAM, HRRR and HREF suggest the potential for isolated strong storms firing off the Black Hills or Pine Ridge this afternoon and this evening. The focus across the Black Hills is diurnal destabilization and across the Pine Ridge, it`s convergence around the Black Hills in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary. Given winds aloft are strong, near 45kts at h500mb, and instability limited, storm coverage should be isolated and accompanied by a southeast motion. Strong winds are the primary hazard as the sustainability of updrafts is uncertain. Other rain chances tonight hinge on an upper level disturbance moving through srn WY and nrn Colo this afternoon. This disturbance should affect wrn Nebraska overnight and slowly dissipate across ncntl Nebraska Friday afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are in place during this time. The GFS, NAM and GEM regional models have perked up on a potential heavy rain event Friday night. This is the first model run to show heavy rain extending through swrn Nebraska. Previous model runs were focusing the best rainfall across wrn Nebraska with a diurnal enhancement. Now, the models are closing off a h700mb low Friday night which moves slowly across swrn Nebraska to scntl Nebraska by Saturday morning. 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall if the moisture advection shown by the models materializes. Any storm activity across cntl KS will disrupt the moisture advection into Nebraska resulting in less rainfall. The NAM12 model shows storms across KS while the NAMdng, the downscaled NAM, does not show any storms across KS. The rain forecast Friday night uses the short term model blend for likely to definite rain chances but less than half of the QPF these models show. Conditions Friday afternoon and early evening could support a few strong or severe storms across swrn Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle. Winds aloft at h500mb are modest at 25-35kts and the NAM shows instability moving north through the Colo Plains. Any storm activity which develops will move east into a more stable environment across cntl Nebraska. SPC is now suggesting a slight risk for severe storms across swrn Nebraska and the Panhandle late Friday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 The h700mb low across Nebraska, if it forms Saturday as indicated by the models, will move slowly through ern Nebraska and be located across Iowa Saturday evening. The system will merge with another upper low moving through the Dakotas to form a large closed h500mb low across WI Sunday morning. This should pull a fresh batch of Canadian air into Nebraska. The models have been very consistent showing this and the morning model runs are building this high pressure farther west. The resulting model blended temperature forecast Sunday is cooler with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. 70s to near 80 are in place for Monday as the cool air is recycled north through KS and into Nebraska. Rain chances vanish Sunday through Tuesday. A very strong upper level ridge of high pressure will from across Nebraska capping any convection despite increasing heat and instability. Highs in the 80s are in place Tuesday with dew points in the 50s. The 14C temperatures at h700mb should cap storm development Tuesday. A strong Pacific front accompanied by falling 500mb heights late Wednesday is expected to set off what could be a fairly vigorous round of thunderstorms affecting wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The front is expected to stall across ncntl Nebraska Thursday presenting cooler temperatures across the west but warm conditions across ncntl Nebraska. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 VFR conditions are forecast at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. At KLBF, VFR conditions tonight, with VCSH 09Z-12Z, then -SHRA expected 12Z-18Z. An area of MVFR ceilings are expected to develop and persist in southwest Nebraska, but should remain west of the KLBF terminal. AT KVTN, -SHRA were ongoing at TAF issuance wnd should continue until 02Z. After 12Z -SHRA are expected to return and remain prevailing through the end of the TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Roberg
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1244 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .AVIATION... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed around all terminals and should continue to impact them from time to time through this afternoon. Expect brief windows of reduced visibilities from heavy rainfall and possibly gusty winds. Convection should dissipate with time from west to east beginning around 00Z with VFR returning through the overnight hours. A repeat is expected tomorrow, so have added VCTS beginning around 15Z at TAF sites. MEFFER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Thu May 14 2020/ ..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (Today through Friday Night)... Starting out early this morning, short-range model soundings continue to support a very moist surface to 850mb layer across the area. This will keep low clouds and some patchy fog in generally the same areas that experienced them yesterday (Pearl river valley, southern MS and parts of coastal MS) - and have reflected this in the gridded forecast package for today. Otherwise, any lingering fog will quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise, but mostly cloudy skies and low clouds will prevail through the day today. Quick overview of the weather maps this morning shows the same surface high once anchored across the Great lakes to the Mid- Atlantic states has pressed east out into the Atlantic, which continues to promote strong southeasterly Gulf return flow of moisture across the area. The closer proximity to the high yesterday helped keep a lid on area convection generally east of I-55, but that will change for today as much deeper moisture has pulled into the area, with generally no lid/subsidence inversion aloft. HRRR/NAM3KM guidance is in good agreement over the idea of widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms over just about the entire CWA, less for far coastal SE LA. A closer detailed analysis with forecast model soundings illustrates a few interesting tidbits to keep an eye out for. Noticing Tc`s today will be very low, in the mid to upper 70`s along with CINH dissipating around 13 to 16Z areawide. This may be a trigger that the CAM`s are hinting at how convection will spark much earlier today, possibly as early as mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon. Hodographs and the vertical wind profile does not show much that stands out, other than impressive low- level curvature (but with low wind magnitude) indicative of support in the way of low-level warm air advection. The profile aloft does however show a few interesting features, including the well-advertised cooler mid-level layer with H5 temps around -12C, in conjunction with an eventual well-mixed PBL as soon as the clouds attempt to break up later today (DCAPE reaching around 1000J/kg). A few storms today may be on the strong side, and will be watched closely. Storm motions today will be generally from 185-190 degrees, but look for many boundary interactions today due to weak tropospheric wind flow. As a side note, some runs of the HRRR develop convection early out west across Lake Charles, which could send a eastward surging outflow boundary swinging across our area, which would only add to the rain chances through the afternoon and evening. PW`s in the 1.6 to 1.7 inch range along with these boundary interactions/training potential does raise a flag with isolated flash flooding concerns, and the WPC has placed most of SE LA and S MS under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Good news is this will be a much needed soaker today for many, with all convection likely coming to an end before 8 to 9PM, with dry and humid conditions overnight. Not much changing by Friday, with another round of showers/storms in the late AM through afternoon and evening. Coverage should be similar, if not slightly less but the overall strong storm risk will be lower, has the mid-levels slightly warm to around -10C with limited DCAPE. Few heavy downpours leading to localized flooding possible, but the overall risk for widespread flooding will be low. LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)... By early Saturday, focus begins to shift out west as we see the signs of a developing upper-level low progressing eastward across Texas. Late hour recent runs of the CAM`s pick up on a very large MCS/squall line racing just east of the downstream portion of the upper-low early on Saturday, before running out of steam once reaching the NW GOMEX late in the day. Here locally, we see a slight surge of drier air in the troposphere within downstream subtle ridging ahead of the trough out west, which lowers our overall PW`s to around 1.0 to 1.1 inches, increasing Tc back to 90+F and limits overall convection, more confined to far western areas. Few things need to be watched here as we go into Saturday night and into Sunday with long-range guidance suggestions: ECMWF/GFS solutions are now picking up on this upper low being kicked east by a SE diving shortwave across the Ohio Valley, which spreads this upper-level energy east across our area early Sunday. What needs to be watched are two things: 1) The early Saturday squall line/MCS racing across Texas, eventually reaching the NWGOMEX in the afternoon evening. Will there be enough outward projection/support in upper-level winds along with mesoscale cold pooling to push this MCS farther east than what guidance suggests? Increasing rain/storm risks for us later on Saturday. 2) GFS runs have been indicating the potential for a large MCS to race across the entire area - during peak heating on Sunday with widespread 3,000+J/KG SBCAPE building out ahead in the pre-storm environment. ECMWF also hints at a bit of a more messy solution, but tries to still keep some enhancement of shower/storm coverage across the area on Sunday. Either way in this type of set up, you can confidently bet more on the idea of a MCS racing somewhere across the area at some point late Saturday or Sunday. Overall timing will set the degree of severity in regards to severe weather risk, but this may need to be closely watched, especially as CAM`s continue to attempt and resolve these mesoscale features. Beyond Sunday, there is now a good chance that we dry out thanks to the same aforementioned shortwave across the Great Lakes eventually closing off across the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region, supporting upstream convergence/strong high pressure across our area with drier conditions to follow into the middle of next week. KLG MARINE... High pressure anchored just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to promote southeasterly winds through the rest of the weekend and weekend. Winds will be gusty at times, reaching 15 to 25 knots sustained for outer Gulf marine zones, lower for tidal lakes and sounds. Persistent southwesterly winds though however will keep a long period swell train in place with wave heights reaching 3 to 7 feet for outer Gulf zones, with Small Craft Advisory highlights in place for these areas - mentioning higher waves as the main risk aside from near-criteria winds. Winds/waves will steadily diminish into the weekend. KLG DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Today and Tonight Forecast support for critical IDSS sites. River Flood Warnings along Mississippi River. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 81 66 84 / 40 80 60 20 BTR 69 83 68 85 / 40 90 60 30 ASD 67 83 66 85 / 30 80 30 10 MSY 70 83 70 84 / 40 90 40 10 GPT 69 80 68 81 / 10 60 20 10 PQL 65 82 63 85 / 10 30 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ552-555-557- 570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ555-557-570- 572-575-577. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1026 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid level vort max continues to move slowly east across southeast Missouri. Expect these showers and storms to persist late this evening as they move slowly east across southeast Missouri. Main concern continues to be with line of thunderstorm over northern Missouri into northwest Illinois. Latest surface analysis indicates that the stationary front extends from northeastern Kansas across northern Missouri into northern Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms continue along this front in an area of strong low level moisture convergence underneath increasing mid level ascent ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the Upper Midwest. This trough in addition to the cold pool developing over Iowa will act push the front south overnight. This will cause showers and thunderstorms to move southeast across the area overnight. There will remain the threat for heavy rainfall in the flash flood watch as thunderstorms will be training into the overnight hours with PWATS around 1.75 and deep warm cloud layers. Still expect the line of storms to move south of the area after 12Z. Britt && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Remnant MCV is making it`s way into southwestern MO as of 20z with scattered storms developing over WFO SGF`s forecast area. In the meantime, isolated activity continues to fire up mainly along and south of I-70 due to old outflow boundaries from the morning activity. Latest RAP indicating surface based CAPES between 2000 and 3000 J/kg, 0 to 6km bulk shear between 25 and 30 kts, as well as, little to no CIN. So as MCV approaches region, will see scattered storms develop along and south of I-70 corridor between now and 03z Friday. Still expect isolated/scattered strong to severe storms during this period with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Once the sun sets and we lose daytime heating, activity will diminish rather quickly. Then the focus shifts back to the north with the main cold front that will begin to slide through region late tonight. Latest CAMs are indicating that storms will quickly congeal into a line and slide southward through forecast area tonight through early Friday morning. Model guidance as well as WPC guidance indicating that with faster movement of this complex, rainfall amounts will be between a half an inch and an inch in the Flash Flood watch area over portions of central/northeast MO and west central IL. Even with lower qpf amounts, will keep FFA and allow it to expire at 10z Friday after coordinating with our neighbors to the west and southwest. As for the severe threat with the cold front, strong 40 to 50 kt low level jet will maintain an influx of richer moisture from the southern Plains. So could see a few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging winds the main threats tonight. Even though front will stall out over region, should see a bit of a break in activity with just chance pops most locations during the day on Friday. By Friday night, another shortwave will slide along the boundary triggering another round of showers and storms, mainly after 06z Saturday. Temperatures through the short term will remain a bit above normal for this time of year. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 With the front stalled out over region, will see several more rounds of showers and storms Saturday through Sunday, before boundary is finally pushed south of region and surface ridge builds in. Dry weather expected for the remainder of the forecast period. As for temperatures, the synoptic set up remains favorable for an omega block pattern that will keep the region in the northwest flow aloft, so temperatures will be near or slightly below normal through the work week. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 VFR flight conditions expected through this evening, then will see ceilings and visibilities lower with onset of showers and storms after 05z Friday. When rain tapers off between 09z and 15z Friday from north to south, MVFR ceilings will persist until mid afternoon on Friday when conditions improve. Otherwise, south to southwest winds will persist ahead of frontal boundary, then veer to the northwest to north on back side of front. With front progged to stall out Friday afternoon, confidence of where it will stall out is low, so kept winds light and variable for TAFs along I-70 corridor for remainder of forecast period. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Friday for Audrain MO-Boone MO- Callaway MO-Cole MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO. IL...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Friday for Adams IL-Brown IL- Pike IL. && $$ WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 A few showers could still pop up this afternoon into early evening as the surface trough/weak cold front moves through the area. Latest RAP analyses show 50-250 J/Kg of MUCAPE across the area, with better values across the north, coincident with the better forcing. Confined chance PoPs to the north half of the area and stuck close to RAP/HRRR timing of things. Otherwise, look for cloud cover to generally decrease tonight with the loss of diurnal heating. Mild and dry weather will prevail on Friday as a weak surface ridge noses in from the north. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Timing and strength of weekend short wave the main concern early in the longer term. Then evolution of blocking pattern will dominate with dry conditions with a gradual warm up into midweek. Models have trended slower/deeper with the weekend short wave trough. It deepens to southeast, carrying the surface low south of the Minnesota/Iowa border Saturday night/Sunday. Forcing should be sufficient for high end PoPs moving across the southern and eastern CWA into Saturday night. Thunder threat appears to remain low, mainly across the southern CWA. GEFS plumes suggest QPF of 0.25 northwest to 1 to 1.25 to the south and east CWA for the event. With clouds and rain moving through, high temperatures will struggle to warm through the 60s Saturday and will remain in the 50s over the southeast CWA where clouds/rain linger longest. This initial short wave drops south/southeast and cuts off over the southeast CONUS. A blocking ridge builds into the mid section of the CONUS with rising heights progressing over the area through midweek. The western CONUS trough may be slowed further, through at least Wednesday because of the southeast CONUS cut off upper low. The surface front may linger over the Dakotas region into next Thursday. This, along with broad surface ridge over the Great Lakes into the area will likely keep us dry through Wednesday. Will work some lower end chance PoPs into mainly the western half of the CWA for Thursday. We should be able to work some low/mid 80s into the area by Wednesday and Thursday. The trajectory of flow/any real thermal ridge, remains best to the west so it may be difficult to warm area to 90 degrees. Surface dewpoints remain comfortable until midweek as the front/western trough moves closer. Perhaps readings rising to the mid/upper 50s then. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 VFR thoughout the period. Trough is moving across MN early this evening with gusty wnw winds in its wake. It is associated with isolated showers from east central to southwest MN which will end this evening. Northwest winds will build in with the trough passage, and with high pressure in North Dakota sinking southward, there will be a gradient overnight with persistent nw winds eventually turning north. Winds Friday will diminish during the day as the high moves away and weakens. KMSP... One of the evening showers may drift over KMSP this evening, but will more likely dissipate before reaching the airfield. There is some potential for an hour or two of gusty winds to 20 knots with trough passage. No other concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR morning then MVFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind E 5-15kts. SUN...MVFR morning then VFR. Wind NE 10-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
858 PM PDT Thu May 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... More showery weather is expected for Friday. Saturday will generally be dry and mild, but there could be some light rain showers in the Casacdes by Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be wet with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Wet weather will continue for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... A complex POP forecast for the rest of tonight but have made some updates. The area is under a broad upper trough but with several small lows helping to generate shower activity. There is also some elevated instability over the region which will aid in keeping some shower activity over the region overnight. Water vapor satellite shows one circulation near the Grand Coulee area that has been generating showers this evening around this area. Latest HRRR guidance suggests this activity may lift north and west overnight with an increasing threat of showers for the Okanogan and Methow Valleys. Another circulation near The Dalles, OR is aiding in shower development in the Yakima Valley into the Royal City area. HRRR shows this activity will carry east overnight, but with just isolated showers across the basin possibly increasing slightly over the palouse. Yet a third area from near the ID/MT border into the Coeur d`Alene area but has been breaking apart at times and not organized at the moment. So far the 00z runs of the GFS and NAM are overdone with the precipitation in this area. But with the mid level flow backing to the southeast overnight bringing in increased moisture a band of rain may set up over portions of the ID Panhandle but low confidence as to how far west the band will make it since current model runs are struggling to capture the current details well. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A band of showers is spreading into the Spokane- Coeur d`Alene corridor associated with a surface low passing through the region. The rain band will progress through the area through the evening and will likely set up overnight across NE WA and N ID Panhandle. Do keep -ra going for KCOE through the night. Drier air behind the band is bringing rising cloud decks and VFR conditions for the region starting around 17Z. /JDC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 43 66 43 71 51 71 / 20 30 0 0 20 80 Coeur d`Alene 45 63 42 71 50 70 / 80 50 0 0 10 70 Pullman 40 63 42 70 51 69 / 30 40 0 0 20 70 Lewiston 46 68 45 76 56 76 / 30 40 0 0 10 70 Colville 42 70 42 74 49 71 / 30 50 10 0 30 80 Sandpoint 45 63 44 70 50 69 / 60 60 10 0 10 70 Kellogg 45 59 42 69 51 69 / 70 70 10 0 10 70 Moses Lake 43 73 45 77 54 74 / 20 0 0 0 60 70 Wenatchee 45 71 48 71 54 69 / 20 10 0 10 80 80 Omak 46 72 47 72 53 69 / 50 20 0 10 70 90 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 AM MDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 401 AM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Currently... Quite a bit of low level moisture has worked westward across the southeast plains of Colorado as 40 and 50(!) dewpts prevail across the lower elevations. A sharp gradient in the moisture is noted across the Raton Mesa as dwpts in this area were int eh teens. Mtns and valleys were also in the teens. Associated with the moisture is low clouds, and quite a bit of these have worked back west as they were just moving into the Pueblo area around 3:00 AM. In the dry air, skies were clear, except just east of the southern Sangres where a band of wave clouds were noted. On the larger scale, modest zonal flow aloft prevails over the western 1/3rd of the CONUS, with several weak short waves noted in a broad, very low amplitude trough over this region. Today and Tonight... Strong convection is likely to finally return to the region today. Although the low level moisture will mix out some, sufficient cape will be in place combined with the modest deep shear to allow for a few strong storms to develop this late afternoon and evening over the forecast area. Several runs of the high resolution guidance indicates it will be a late show, and most of the stronger storms will occur north of and along the US50 corridor, especially out in Bent, Kiowa and Prowers counties. However some of the most recent HRRR runs were showing some isolated activity forming off the Wets and Southern Sangres. Given the above, believe storms will form around Pikes Peak around 4 pm and then move generally east over the plains. Storms will intensify as they move east with the strongest activity occurring this evening along and north of US50. One or two isolated storms will occur south of this area and will also move east. They best chance for more significant rainfall will occur over Bent, Prowers and especially Kiowa county this evening. This will also be the location where the strongest storms will occur. Main severe threats will be hail up to quarters and winds to 60 mph. West of the mtns/plains interface are expected to be dry. Cant rule out some isold dry thunder but for the most part it will be dry across the higher terrain today. Max temps today will be in teh 70s across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region and L80s over the plains. San Luis Valley should be in the 70s, with 50s and 60s mtns. As discussed above, it will be a late show and expect storms to still be going over the far eastern plains during the early morning hours of Friday. The remainder of the region should be dry. Low clouds will likely redevelop over the plains tonight. Min temps tonight will fall to around 50F most of plains with 20s and 30s in the mtns/valleys. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 401 AM MDT Thu May 14 2020 Friday and Saturday...An upper level trough is expected to continue propagating across the northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing another couple of rounds of PM showers and storms to the region. Before the PM showers and storms initiate each day, lingering precipitation from the previous night`s convection is anticipated for the southeast plains each morning. The PM convection is expected to begin over the mountains around midday before spreading east to the plains. Friday still looks to have a better chance for some stronger storms as moderate east to southeasterly flow at the surface is expected to keep a steady influx of low level moisture, resulting in increased instability. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate that CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg will creep into the region, while bulk shear values of 30-40 kts are also expected across portions the plains. These values, if they verify, should be sufficient enough to also allow storms to strengthen and persist for a few hours. As the trough moves away from the region on Saturday, there should be enough instability remaining for another round of PM convection. However, any convection that occurs Saturday is anticipated to be more of the garden-variety type of storms at this time as instability is expected to be weaker than Friday. Temperatures are expected to generally be in the 70s both days over the high valleys and plains. Sunday into Tuesday...A fairly strong ridge is expected to build in behind the exiting trough, which will bring more southwesterly flow aloft to the region. This flow should promote warm and dry conditions for much of the area, resulting in the potential for critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday in many locations. That said, some remaining weak instability over the mountains is expected to bring chances for isolated showers or storms Sunday afternoon. An upper level low pressure system is also anticipated to move onshore over northern California, bringing another shot of isolated showers and storms to the area, mainly along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Temperatures warm from the 80s on Sunday to the 90s for Monday and Tuesday across the plains, while the high valleys should see temps in the 80s. Wednesday...The upper-level low is anticipated to move north- northeast into Idaho and Montana, keeping much of the precipitation north of our area. Isolated PM showers and storms are possible over the mountains, however. Temperatures are expected to cool about 5F across the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1118 AM MDT Thu May 14 2020 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Westerly winds will continue through this afternoon and early evening with gusts near 28 kts possible. KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions this afternoon. Occasional gusts to 25 kts may be possible out of the southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening at both terminals. Reduced CIGS and VIS are expected with any storms that move over the terminals. Upslope flow will lead to low stratus overnight into Friday morning. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...CARLBERG AVIATION...MOZLEY
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Southwest to nearly zonal flow is occurring across the state as of 20Z ahead of a shortwave trough in the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, circulation associated with the low can be seen in west central KS on satellite with a small break in the cumulus field along the frontal boundary, which is currently located along a line from Abilene to Seneca. Temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to low 80s area-wide with dew points in the 60s. Eastern KS is still under a cap, but this should continue to erode the rest of the afternoon with the current conditions allowing plenty of destabilization for storms late this afternoon into tonight. The surface front should slowly progress eastward with CAMs consistently showing storms initiating between Topeka and Emporia on the leading edge of the boundary, most likely within the 21-23Z time frame. RAP forecast soundings have shown CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in areas along and southeast of the current boundary with shear of 25- 40 kts. The shear looks strongest after 00Z when the LLJ strengthens to 35-40 kts. That being said, storm mode looks messy with supercells possible initially before outflow boundaries develop and storms congeal into a line and slowly move southeast. Hodographs continue to show good veering in the low levels, so a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out with supercells; however, the initially weaker 0- 6 km shear makes this threat more questionable. Large hail and damaging winds will be a good possibility with steep mid-level lapse rates. The HRRR has been consistent in keeping a strong line of storms in east central KS late this evening and potentially lingering into the overnight hours along the southern border of the CWA. This is also consistent with models bringing the boundary south of the area by 12Z, which is slower than indicated yesterday. Based on this, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon and Osage Counties. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts are still possible in this area through Friday morning. Storms should dissipate by sunrise Friday morning with some clearing in northern KS while east central areas likely stay cloudy. The front appears to move back north again very slightly into the far southeastern counties of the CWA during the day. An additional round of storms is possible in this area perhaps in the late afternoon, but more so by the evening and overnight hours. The NAM tends to keep the area dry until early Saturday whereas the EC/GFS start to bring precipitation into the area late in the afternoon. Some uncertainty in severe weather potential exists due to this difference in the models, although forecast soundings do show MUCAPE up to 1200-1500 J/kg and shear up to 40 kts, which would support elevated storms capable of hail and wind hazards. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 The surface boundary will continue to slowly push back north into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms still possible on and off for much of the day. The better upper level support arrives with a more amplified trough moving across the Northern Plains as well as a southern stream trough across TX. No severe weather is expected at this time, but additional rainfall could exacerbate flooding in areas that already receive heavy rainfall tonight. Dry weather returns by Sunday as an amplified ridge moves across the area ahead of a deep trough coming onshore from the Pacific. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s by midweek before the next chance of rain next Thursday, although model differences keep low confidence in this at this point. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 Thunderstorms have developed ahead of a sfc boundary at issuance time. Storms are expected to be near or impact terminals for the first few hours of this period, before moving south of sites late this evening/early tonight. Winds shift behind the boundary to the north and northeast tonight, and will then become predominately easterly tomorrow. Additionally, a few hours of MVFR CIGS are possible during the morning hours at the TOP airports, but VFR should prevail at KMHK. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ040-054>056-058- 059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Picha LONG TERM...Picha AVIATION...Teefey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
946 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Isolated thunderstorms have developed near the frontal boundary across northwest OK this evening, although relatively weak wind fields have resulted in a very slow eastward progression. Will keep an eye on these storms as its not out of the question they could approach parts of northeast OK. Convection continues to organized across eastern KS, and recent runs of the HRRR support a late arrival of storms (after 08Z) into northeast OK. Going forecast appears to be in reasonable shape and no update is planned at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 77 65 79 / 50 80 60 60 FSM 68 79 66 80 / 20 80 50 70 MLC 70 82 67 78 / 10 70 60 70 BVO 65 75 64 80 / 70 90 60 60 FYV 64 74 64 77 / 70 90 50 70 BYV 62 73 63 77 / 80 80 50 70 MKO 68 77 65 77 / 30 80 60 70 MIO 64 73 63 78 / 80 90 60 60 F10 68 78 65 77 / 20 70 60 60 HHW 69 83 67 77 / 10 40 60 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Friday afternoon for OKZ054>063. AR...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Friday afternoon for ARZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...18