Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/14/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
629 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening, then MVFR ceilings are expected to develop after midnight, then clear back to VFR tomorrow morning. Some models bring isolated thunderstorms to the Rio Grande Valley after midnight that could impact the airfields, but confidence is low in the development of these storms, so have left any mention of thunderstorms out of the TAF package at this time. As for winds, gusty southeast winds are beginning to back off and will decrease overnight before gusty conditions return mid morning tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night): A swift 500 mb short wave trough will approach from the west tonight. A few thunderstorms may drift off the Sierra Madre Orientals to the west of the CWA and move toward the upper valley later this evening into tonight. Not all models pick up on a signal across the CWA overnight, however, but the ARW and HRRR are two that show some convection moving into the area from the west later this evening and overnight. Tried to hold the middle ground and indicate some activity from midnight through dawn, followed by coastal shower activity during early daylight. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Thursday morning as the mid level short wave continues to move east. Thursday will be very warm with high temperatures in the 90s, except for the 80s at the coast. A modest short wave ridge will move over- head. Moderate southeast winds will prevail under partly cloudy afternoon skies. Did not include a recurrence of convective chances for Thursday night, though a few mountain rooted cells to the west could again develop. Cloud cover will increase to mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the 70s. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): By Friday afternoon the 500mb shortwave begins to ramp up as it moves toward East Texas. The models have come into slightly better agreement of this path through the weekend. PWAT values rise to near 2.0 to 2.1 inches late Friday night into Saturday afternoon, with the bulk of the best rainfall chances in Deep South Texas remaining across the northern ranchlands. A slight lull in rainfall is possible late Saturday into early Sunday as the shortwave spins across eastern TX and western LA, with any spokes of mid level energy helping convective development locally. The models then still differ on where to take the 500mb low, with the GFS now sliding it back SSW out over the western Gulf of Mexico, while the ECMWF spins the energy further into the Southeastern US, building mid level high pressure across Deep South Texas. For now, have stuck with previous forecasts and brought rain chances back into the CWA by Sunday afternoon, continuing generally less than 30 percent on Monday and Tuesday, with isolated convection, if any, on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall remains a possibility, with confidence increasing, especially across the northern ranchlands late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Confidence beyond that is low to moderate at best. Temperatures remain near normal on Friday, dropping off due to increased cloud cover and rain chances Saturday into Monday, before warming again into next week. MARINE (Now through Thursday Night): Surface high pressure across the southeast United States interacting with lower pressure across west Texas will support a tight pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast. Moderate to breezy southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail. Small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible through Thursday night. Friday through Wednesday: High pressure strengthens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into this weekend, allowing winds to diminish through most of the long term period. Coastal low pressure may develop across the western Gulf by Monday and continue into Wednesday, bringing variable winds across the coastal waters. Elevated swell builds seas into the start of the weekend, with Small Craft Advisories possibly needed Friday night through Saturday. Overall marine conditions may improve into early next week, with Small Craft Caution possible Sunday into Monday if elevated swells continue. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV Aviation Update...69
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1017 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 ...Updated Synopsis... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Areas of fog are developing along and north of a frontal boundry roughly from Johnson to Great Bend. Visibilities of 1/2 to 3/4 mile are reported in Garden City and Scott City with satellite imagery showing areas of low clouds and fog from east of Syracuse to Russell. A shortwave and surface low will move out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas through the overnight keeping the boundary around and southeast winds along the boundry. Fog possibilities look good for much of the night in these areas. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Interesting weather across southwest Kansas this afternoon. The anticipated hot, dry downslope plume did indeed develop, which reached a Johnson to Liberal line mid-afternoon. Temperatures were in the 88 to 91F range across far southwest Kansas on a strong southwest wind 20 to 30 mph, gusting over 40 mph at times. A very small thermal circulation could be seen developing in the surface observations as well as trends on radar and visible satellite. Low stratus clouds were hanging tough northeast of the developing thermal low, where temperatures were still stuck in the 50s. The prospects of any thunderstorm activity late this afternoon and evening are looking less and less across southwest Kansas, despite strong boundary layer convergence along the dryline and especially in proximity of the thermal low between Dodge City and Liberal. A strong elevated mixed layer was in place, keeping a lid on convective potential north of the Oklahoma border. It is still possible that a convective plume could develop after 22Z or so, but any such convective plume will be met with quite a bit of resistance in the form of very high surface-based convective inhibition thanks to lower temperatures immediately downwind of any initiation zone. A subtle shortwave trough over Colorado and Wyoming will move out over Nebraska tonight, and a weak front will push south into western Kansas overnight. We anticipate a narrow corridor of light fog and drizzle just north of the front tonight, affecting mainly the northern counties, along/north of Highway 96. On Thursday, we will be watching for another chance for thunderstorms along the front, but the best forecast for placement of the front and attendant strong/severe thunderstorm risk will be across mainly Barber County in our forecast area. A better chance for our southwest and west central Kansas region will be later on in the night, as post-frontal upslope conditions improve with increased elevated CAPE and warm/moist advection/convergence. A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) or two will likely roll east-southeast across portions of the west central/southwest KS region in the 06-15Z Friday time frame. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 As long as the weak polar frontal zone remains close by/just to our south, we will continue to see fairly decent thunderstorm chances. This will likely remain the case through Saturday Night until the next strong front marks and end to this pattern. Another nocturnal MCS or two is likely Friday Night/early Saturday which will likely leave an outflow boundary somewhere across far southern KS or northern OK. The last round of strong/severe storms would be Saturday afternoon or evening before the next front moves in and high surface pressure builds south. Sunday through at least the first half of next week, we will be seeing a rather quiet period as upper level high pressure expands across southern and central High Plains. The next big Pacific storm system will approach the Rockies mid-week, which will help break down the high to its east, but much of the initial convective activity with this storm system will be well north of western Kansas. Severe weather prospects for western/central Kansas will probably increase by late next week (starting perhaps by 22 May) as mid level heights continue to lower and southwest flow aloft returns to the Central Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Model soundings are in good agreement in a low level jet of around 50 knots between 03z and 09z Thursday in the Dodge City and Hays areas. At the surface overnight the winds will be southeast at around 15 knots. A surface boundary located west of Garden City and Hays at 00z Thursday will slowly move south southeast early Thursday morning and as this boundary passes Garden City and Hays between 12z and 15z Thursday the southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will shift to the north northwest. Along with the northerly winds the latest HRRR Bufr soundings also indicated an increase in low clouds. LIFR ceilings along with areas of fog will be possible between 10z and 15z Thursday at Garden City and Hays. Low VFR ceilings can be expected at Dodge City and Liberal between 10z and 15z Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 56 79 55 74 / 0 0 40 30 GCK 52 81 53 73 / 0 0 40 20 EHA 54 85 54 76 / 0 20 20 10 LBL 54 85 55 76 / 0 0 40 10 HYS 54 77 53 73 / 0 0 30 50 P28 59 82 60 77 / 20 10 50 40 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tatro SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1027 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 .UPDATE... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde County issued early through 10 PM this evening was allowed to expire. There is strong to severe thunderstorm moving across north central Val Verde County as of this writing and we issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for it through 11 PM. The storm is entering to an area where conditions are less favorable to keep current status. Therefore, we think the storm should begin to weaken within the next several volume scans. Also with this update, removed the slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over parts of south central Texas and kept showers mentioned over two-thirds of the area in case some light shower activity develops overnight as an upper level short wave moves over the area. Still showing isolated thunderstorms over parts of the western part of the Hill Country overnight where the better lift may be present. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 corridor through about midnight tonight. A cluster of strong storms could be impacting KDRT around 01Z through 04Z as these storms move out of northeast Mexico and enter the western portion of Val Verde County. There is a split decision between HiRes solutions bringing the storms over KDRT. Since the HRRR is performing well with the ongoing convection, we will follow its projected path of these storms with storms affecting KDRT around 01Z-04Z (as already mentioned above). Cigs/vsbys could lower a category or two depending on the intensity over the storm if it does go over the terminal. Storms are likely to dissipate around midnight tonight. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are anticipated to begin around 05Z/06Z for the I-35 sites through 17Z/18Z Thursday. Can`t rule out an hour or two with IFR before dawn. MVFR cigs are expected after 05Z for KDRT and last through 18Z. Winds are forecast to be out of the southeast and south 7 to 10 knots with gusts up to 17 knots. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ UPDATE... Updated to add Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 for Val Verde county until 10 PM CDT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... Low stratus deck has struggled to scatter and lift this morning. SSE wind have begun to pick up this afternoon which will encourage boundary layer mixing and promote additional clearing. Scattered streamer showers are depicted by several high res models over the coastal plains and areas east of I-35 for this afternoon. Low-end POPs in for this activity till 21Z. Attention will then turn to west TX and the Big Bend region where storms are expected to initiate along the dryline. Convective initiation should be around 21Z when a shortwave makes it`s way over the state. Convective allowing models diverge on how this evening activity is handled. General consensus is that shortly after sunset, storms begin a downward trend and reach our far western counties as they dissipate. Some outliers, like the ARW, carry this line of potentially strong to severe storms a bit further into the interior Hill Country and our central counties. One outlier, the 06Z and 12Z 3km NAM dissipates storms over the Rio Grande but carries a line of storms into the northeastern Hill Country and over the Austin metro all the way from northwest TX that developed along the dryline in the late afternoon. Again this is an outlier but run to run consistency has gained some attention. There will be a pretty strong cap in place over our eastern counties this evening and overnight so there is confidence that if any storms do make it as far as the I-35 corridor, it would be fairly weak. SPC does have our western 1/3 under a slight risk and a marginal risk stretching to the I-35 corridor. Main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Overnight Wednesday, temperatures will remain warm, only dropping to the low 70s for much of the region. Dewpoints will remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s, so a warm and muggy night is in store. Some fog development could take place for the interior Hill Country with the absence of any rainfall but would remain confined to rural areas of the Hill Country. On Thursday, shower activity should be confined mostly along the coast and over the Gulf as this latest disturbance continues eastward. Kept low-end POPs in for our southeastern counties for this. Slight warm up for Thursday with afternoon highs a couple of degrees above what they were Wednesday and a brief break from rain chances Thursday night. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Models continue to be consistent with an upper level trough moving across Texas for the end of the week. This will be a trigger for showers and thunderstorms starting Friday and continuing through Sunday. In the low levels warm, moist flow from the Gulf will prime the atmosphere for a potential heavy rain event. PW values will increase to 1.5 to 2.0 inches which is sufficient for heavy rain at this time of year. At this time, the best chance for heavy rain looks to be across the eastern half of our CWA. Rainfall totals from Friday through Sunday morning will be generally two to four inches with isolated amounts to six inches possible. Exact locations are hard to determine at this time. This amount of rain will likely lead to localized flooding and our confidence is growing that a Flash Flood Watch will be needed for this time period. The upper system will move slowly away from the region during the first part of next week and low chances for showers will linger over the area Monday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 71 86 68 / 10 20 - 50 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 86 70 86 67 / 10 20 - 50 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 87 70 86 68 / 20 20 - 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 69 84 66 / 20 10 0 40 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 93 74 90 68 / 30 0 - 40 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 86 70 86 67 / 10 10 - 40 60 Hondo Muni Airport 71 90 71 90 67 / 20 10 0 40 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 86 70 86 67 / 20 20 - 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 72 86 69 / 20 30 10 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 88 72 87 69 / 20 20 0 50 70 Stinson Muni Airport 72 89 73 88 70 / 20 20 0 50 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term/Aviation...17 Long-Term...04
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1039 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Spotty shower chances and abundant low level moisture headline the main challenges with the near term today. Have seen high-based showers and an occasional lightning string become more numerous across our southern counties, though thus far not much more than trace amounts being reported by automated stations. These showers have produced wind gusts in excess of 40 mph at times, with isolated stronger gusts near 50 mph around KSXK (Maurice/Orange City area) in the late morning. Any marginal instability beneath the elevated mixed layer diminishes through the afternoon, so thunder risk and overall coverage of the high-based showers expected to wane. However, subtle warm advection atop a deepening moist layer could lead to some drizzle during the very late afternoon/evening, so will continue to carry pops into the evening, mainly east of I-29. This will be followed by areas of fog development late evening/overnight as the low level moisture is compressed further toward the surface beneath a lowering warm nose aloft. Will have to watch for areas of dense fog, but this currently appears more likely confined to higher elevations of southwest MN, Opted to not issue any headlines at this time, but next shift will want to monitor trends. Combination of moisture/clouds will keep temperatures rather mild tonight, with lows in the upper 40s-lower 50s expected in most areas. Forecast soundings show the low level moisture becomes quite shallow by shortly after daybreak, so should not take too long to burn off any lingering fog, though scattered-broken stratocu likely to persist through at least mid-late morning. HRRR and other hi-res models showing a few light showers sliding across our southern areas again around daybreak, with additional light showers possible by mid to late afternoon along a subtle wave sliding southeast through the region. GFS/Canadian/RAP a bit more burly with the instability near and south of this wave, so will include a thunder mention with the low pops for shower development along the weak boundary. Instability profiles are rather narrow, and convergence along the boundary also on the weak side, so not anticipating more than garden-variety showers/isolated storms at this point. Highs tomorrow should be quite a bit warmer than the past couple of days, though any late day showers may result in isolated cooler pockets. Overall though, will trend back toward the warmer side of guidance with highs in the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Any late day showers tomorrow afternoon expected to diminish quickly with loss of heating before sunset, leaving a brief stretch of quiet weather Thursday night into Friday for most of the CWA. Blended pops a bit too aggressive spreading precip chances eastward with ridging surface and aloft across the forecast area into Friday evening, so have cut back progression to keep chances primarily west of the James Valley through sunset, then gradually expanding eastward Friday night. Saturday continues to look like the wettest day of the mid-long range forecast period as broad trough slides through the northern Plains. With the approaching trough and 60-80kt jet rounding the base of the trough, deep shear reaches 40+kt, which would be supportive of organized convection...if there was much risk of convection in the first place. That said, instability remains quite meager throughout the day, with pockets of sub-1000J/kg MUCAPE indicated by the models near the surface boundary, while away from the boundary remains much more stable. Will continue with a chance of storms, but at this time the potential for severe storms looks low given the lack of instability. That said, still looking at a potential for some moderate rainfall, mainly in our western counties where amounts could top a half inch in some areas. Lesser amounts toward northwest Iowa, though pockets of heavier rain possible with any convection. With the more abundant rain/clouds on Saturday, that should also be the cooler day of the mid range, with highs in the lower-mid 60s more prevalent, while Friday and Sunday more likely to see readings climb into the lower 70s in several locations. Longer range from Monday onward, we work into a much warmer pattern which maxes out midweek next week as highly amplified upper ridge moves into the central CONUS. Low-mid level temperatures in the 90th percentile or higher in terms of climatology work into most of the region by Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by more humid air as dew points push into the 50s, as well as increasing southerly winds. Blended guidance gives highs in the 80s both days, which is near the median of available individual guidance. Still room for adjustment, but all in all looks like a taste of early summer toward the end of this forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A messy overnight period is in store for the area. Currently there are IFR/LIFR ceilings across NW IA into SW MN, turning to VFR conditions west of the James River Valley. Ceilings will be dropping from east to west, as winds continue to decrease allowing the stratus deck to lower. Fog is expected to develop as well, with the best chances for fog remaining in NW IA and SW MN, with possible expansion westward. After sunrise, mixing out of the fog/stratus deck will likely take a couple hours due to the light variable winds. Winds will eventually settle in a west-northwest direction by afternoon, with isolated chances for showers and a couple rumbles of thunder. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...APT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A trough is positioned on the eastern Rockies and moving eastward tonight while another wave is set over the Great Basin. The dry line for the eastern system is still along the Kansas/Colorado border into the Panhandles. There is a warm front which has made little northern progress given the ongoing drizzle in south central and convection in southeast Kansas. Persistent precipitation in south central and southeast Kansas has lasted through the day thus minimal breaks in the cloud cover. Warm air advection has allowed for a boost in temperatures comparatively to the past couple of days as values are roughly 10 degrees higher. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Highlights: 1) Thunderstorm potential tonight near but mainly north of the I-70 corridor 2) Strong and severe thunderstorms southeast of KS Turnpike on Thursday 3) Thunderstorm and flooding potential Friday and Saturday 4) Warmer Challenges: 1) Precipitation chances tonight 2) Rainfall amounts and respective flooding issues 3) Convection for Thursday to Saturday Changes: Slight adjustments to precipitation chances As highlighted the past few days, this period remains active with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There could be strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds. A rainy week and any additional rainfall will certainly lead to flooding concerns in the coming days especially across southeast Kansas where the amounts are expected to be the greatest. Tonight - The low pressure system and respective boundaries will slowly move east tonight. It still appears that the dry line should stay off to the west. Moisture transport directly into Oklahoma and the eastern half of Kansas has persisted through the day and should through tonight. Low clouds and drizzle are certainly a limiting factor in the convective potential in south central Kansas keeping the cap in place. It is possible that there may be some breaks later on, but this probably won`t be enough to destabilize the environment for what is needed. While this is said, any storms that develop in southwest Kansas and track eastward could move into south central Kansas. Thus the possibility exists for Harper/Kingman/Sumner counties, but it would likely be limited and diminish in intensity quickly after arrival. Attention next turns to central Kansas as the frontal boundary pushes northward and the subsequent wave moves east. An increase in moisture transport, instability and frontogenesis is anticipated in that area tonight. There is potential for strong to severe storms north of the I-70 corridor after 9PM tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their slight risk for that area and pushed it even further north limiting it to along the central and eastern Kansas/Nebraska border. Reflectively models are showing that trend as well keeping convection closer to the border. Thursday - A persistent trend exists that the focus will be east of the Kansas Turnpike with models showing 0-3km MUCAPE of 3-4.5k J/kg and about 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The RAP has a bit more shear which is closer to 40kts. Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible in the afternoon and early evening hours that may start as supercells then could modify depending on cold pools. The threats are large hail near golf ball size and potentially 60 mph winds. There is some uncertainty as highlighted in the previous discussion; however, the parameters can`t underplay the severe weather potential. Friday and Saturday - Another wave is anticipated to move through on Friday, but there is less instability. Oklahoma is more likely to see strong to severe storms. The threat exists in Kansas; however, the outlook is better on Saturday when a trough moves across. Strong to severe thunderstorms will once again be possible. The potential may be in south central and southeast portions of the state, but it still a bit early to highlight any specific area. Stay tuned for more information. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Highlights: Quieter and warmer A ridge should move in on Sunday then stay put through next Wednesday. This will certainly be a welcome change following the rainy week, and the ground should be able to dry up a bit. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s which will be another nice change from the cooler first half of this week. Outdoor activities should flourish. Enjoy! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 A strong frontal system continues to slowly move over the region this evening and overnight. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected over much of the region for the first part of the TAF period with most areas expected to see the low clouds and drizzle. There is a slight chance for some thunderstorm activity before 05Z tonight for HUT and ICT but the chance appears to be very low and have kept it out of the TAF for now. The other main concern for tonight will be some LLWS which is expected to develop as the night progress. This is expected to affect all terminals tonight and is expected to abate a few hours after sunrise tomorrow. By morning, the LIFR conditions are expected to lift and give way to MVFR conditions or VFR conditions depending on how progressive the next short wave is. This will also create some thunderstorm issues tomorrow afternoon but models right now do not agree on timing or intensity. Metzger && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 426 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 This has certainly been a wet period with three day rainfall totals from 2 to 3 inches across south central and southeast Kansas which doesn`t include the precipitation that fell since 7AM today. One report in Butler County was an additional 3 inches. Thus some locations have received around 4 to 5 inches or more in the past few days. There was some minor flooding with the thunderstorms today, but this has since receded as the precipitation moved out. The concern transitions to the next few days when additional rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated. A saturated surface especially for portions of south central and southeast Kansas will have a hard time absorbing a significant amount of additional rainfall which can undoubtedly occur with thunderstorms. Thus this will be certainly be something to be monitored. Rises on creeks and rivers are anticipated. The questionable factor is the amount of precipitation that will fall which is tough to gauge with convection. Therefore it is hard to place a degree of impact. Stay tuned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 64 82 63 78 / 20 20 60 50 Hutchinson 61 80 60 76 / 20 10 60 50 Newton 62 79 61 75 / 20 20 60 60 ElDorado 63 80 62 77 / 20 30 70 60 Winfield-KWLD 64 82 65 81 / 20 30 70 50 Russell 55 79 55 74 / 30 10 50 50 Great Bend 57 79 56 75 / 20 0 50 40 Salina 60 79 58 75 / 40 10 60 70 McPherson 60 79 58 75 / 20 10 60 60 Coffeyville 65 80 66 79 / 20 40 70 50 Chanute 65 79 64 78 / 20 60 80 60 Iola 64 79 63 77 / 20 60 80 70 Parsons-KPPF 65 79 65 78 / 20 50 80 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...ELM HYDROLOGY...VJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Rain chances tonight hinge on increasing mid level moisture, increasing 500mb winds and cooling aloft associated with a weak upper level disturbance near Salt Lake City this afternoon. A few storms are firing on the Laramie Range this afternoon and these storms will venture into wrn Nebraska this evening. A second area of thunderstorms may form across swrn Nebraska later tonight. Given that the rapid refresh models show these storms developing across scntl Nebraska, confidence is on the low side. Nonetheless, increasing moisture fueled by a 30kt low level jet tonight and cooling aloft from the disturbance near Salt Lake might set off a few thunderstorms. All of this weather should clear out of wrn and ncntl Nebraska Thursday with clearing skies to follow. Another disturbance is expected to move across the Colorado Rockies Thursday evening affecting wrn and ncntl Nebraska with showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night or early Friday morning. The POP forecast leans on the HREF and short term model blend which is a slower forecast and similar in timing to the SREF and HREF. The temperature forecast uses the short term model blend plus bias correction. This temperature forecast is slightly warmer at night and cooler during the day than the guidance blend. Wrn and ncntl Nebraska will be post frontal Thursday with the passage of a weak Pacific cold front tonight. The severe weather forecast tonight and Thursday night is marginal. The risk of sfc based storms is generally low given that the storms across the region will probably form post frontal. The HRRR and NAM sfc wind gust products indicate gust potential to 50 mph across wrn Nebraska for a few hours this evening. Cold air aloft (-13C to -15C) and strong winds near 45kt at h500mb would seem to support small or marginal 1 inch hail but the RAP model shows very modest elevated CAPE, less than 1000 J/KG. This might mean the winds are too strong aloft relative to the available instability for severe storm development. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 There is little change in the extended forecast philosophy except to say the warm up next week is evolving slower than previously forecast. An upper level low near the coast of the Pacific Northwest this afternoon will migrate slowly east through the nrn Plains Friday and Saturday setting off rounds of showers and thunderstorms across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The low will be across the upper Midwest Sunday and a second deeper upper low will begin to descend southward toward cntl CA. The models now show the Midwest storm drawing small batch of Canadian high pressure into Nebraska this weekend and this will keep Sunday cooler than previously forecast. The sfc high will move slowly east Sunday night. Predicted highs Monday are now in the lower to mid 80s. The West Coast trof will send a surge of warm air into the cntl Rockies and the Central Plains Monday through Wednesday and sfc low pressure will form near the WY-SD border. This supports the warmest temperatures across wrn Nebraska and the rain forecast is dry Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the long wave trof will have migrated far enough east to lower heights across wrn Nebraska supporting what would appear to be diurnal thunderstorm development. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 VFR ceilings this evening, followed by an MVFR ceilings at KLBF from 08z until 13Z. Lowest ceilings near OVC010. VFR conditions expected at KVTN through the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will move into western Nebraska after 06Z, with winds near 32010G15KT on Thursday. Current isolated showers and storms in the panhandle continue to weaken, with no showers expected at KLBF and KVTN tonight and Thursday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
824 PM PDT Wed May 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible at times through early Thursday, especially over the North Bay and across the Santa Cruz Mountains. Temperatures across the interior will remain below normal through Thursday, while coastal areas will be near normal. Drier conditions and slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from Friday through at least midday Saturday before cooler, unsettled weather returns late in the upcoming weekend. && of 08:11 PM PDT Wednesday...KMUX radar has remained rather active since this afternoon detecting isolated to scattered showers around the Bay Area and Central Coast. Rainfall for the most part has been rather light with a few bursts of heavier showers. Given the scattered nature of the shower activity amounts vary across the region, but the highest amounts are in the North Bay and coastal mountains with up to 0.36" the last few hours. No real bucket tip here at the office, but enough drizzle has fallen to wet the ground. Given the rain and cloud conditions today it should be that surprising that temperatures were on the coldside. Highs were coldest across the North Bay and in the 50s and 60s, but warmer to the south as areas saw a brief shot of sunshine with highs in the 60s and 70s. Regardless, highs were several degrees below normal for mid-May. A few more showers will linger the next few hours, but mainly south of San Francisco Bay. Latest HRRR and early look at the 00Z NAM continue to show a break in the precip overnight. The break is short-lived as additional rain showers return to the region on Thursday. Rainfall is most likely once again across the North Bay and points north. However, some tail end showers may make it to the South Bay. Active pattern will continue into the weekend as a stronger/wetter system moves through the region. && .PREV of 2:24 PM PDT Wednesday... The progressive upper level pattern will allow for some ridging aloft on Friday and parts of Saturday. Surface temperatures will respond accordingly and warm by around 2 to 8 degrees from Thursday to Friday, with the most significant magnitude of warming occurring in the North Bay. This will put afternoon highs within a few degrees of their middle May climatological normals. The ridge axis will push inland into the continent on Saturday as a rather anomalous late season upper level low slowly approaches the West Coast. Rain chances will begin to increase from north to south as early as Sunday morning with lingering rain showers persisting into Monday and Tuesday. Plenty of cold air aloft could allow for some thunder; the NBM is already catching onto this idea, particularly in the North Bay. The upper low begins to fill as it pushes inland on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving behind it northwest flow and some ridging aloft. && of 5:08 PM PDT Wednesday...For 00z tafs. VFR to MVFR with light rain or drizzle at many locations, precipitation moving southward to the Central Coast. Wet weather returning Thursday mainly to the Bay Area, though still could see a few sprinkles or light showers reaching the north Central Coast. Mainly south to southwest winds tonight, west to northwest winds Thursday. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR, southwest wind to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight. MVFR to VFR Thursday. Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR to MVFR tonight and Thursday morning. A few showers arriving tonight. VFR Thursday, an isolated sprinkle or light shower possible. && of 4:55 PM PDT Wednesday...Light southerly winds may briefly turn westerly overnight. However, early Thursday another weak front will pass to our north with winds turning southerly once again before stronger west to northwest winds return Friday. Winds turn southeast again later Saturday as a strong late season cold front approaches with rain Sunday followed by a return of northwest winds into early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM/Rowe AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: RWW Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
305 PM PDT Wed May 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures continue through Thursday. Warmer and drier weather briefly returns Friday, followed by wet and cooler weather for the weekend through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Quasi-stationary upper level low off the Pac NW coast continuing to spread light precip into interior Norcal, mainly in the mtns north of I-80. Short-wave energy forecast to move into Norcal this evening when some deeper convection is forecast over the Nrn Sac Vly, Shasta Co mtns by the HREF, HRRR, but not nearly as much as the NAM3km, as the HRRR generally allows for more convection. Given the current cool, cloudier weather there, one could make an argument to follow the NAM3km, as well as the lack of instability in the forecast soundings. However, not ready to give up on the convective potential yet, and to avoid "getting behind the 8-ball" we have drawn an area of possible thunder in the above area during the 4-8 pm PDT period, and in the topographically favored area given the enhanced convergent/upslope Sly flow. The NAM3km simulated IR Satellite also indicates an area of rapidly cooling cloud tops over this area around 01z (6 pm). Showers are possible into Thu as the upper trof axis follows this evening`s energy early Thu. Upper level ridging shifts the upper low Nwd late Thu/Fri returning dry and milder conditions to Norcal. Valley highs in the mid 60s North to upper 70s South are expected Thu afternoon, with low 80s on Friday which is near normal for this time of year. There will only be a brief break in the dry/mild pattern as a large, cold closed low from the Gulf of Alaska approaches on Sat. Wet weather is expected to move in from the west in the afternoon, becoming widespread over the area Sat night. (The initial frontal band of the GFS is forecast to be much wetter than the ECMWF.) This system looks more like an early spring system (some of the parameters are suggesting a one in every 2-5 yr event), bringing widespread precipitation, mountain snow, convection and strong winds as it moves inland. JHM && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... The broad, anomalous upper low mentioned in the short-term section will continue to impact the region on Sunday and Monday. A fairly sharp cold front is forecast to sweep through on Sunday morning and afternoon spreading moderate rainfall, locally heavy in more orographically enhanced areas. In locations which can catch a bit more sunshine, enough instability may develop to spawn a few thunderstorms but confidence in location and coverage are low at this juncture. By Monday, the parent upper low nears the northwestern California coast which will turn the activity into a more showery nature. There should be a bit more instability as the colder air aloft arrives from the northwest. The current GEFS ensembles show a number of members with surface-based CAPE values in the 200 to 400 J/kg range over the northern Sacramento Valley. Global models show the upper low over central California by Tuesday morning as the system continues to migrate southward. This will encouarge additional shower activity on Tuesday, particularly over the higher terrain. Regarding wintry precipitation, snow levels are forecast to drop to 6,000-7,000 feet by Monday so mountain pass levels could start seeing accumulations. Conditions to gradually improve by mid-week with a ridge building in the wake. Temperatures initially around 5 to 15 degrees below climatology will eventually return to near average by Wednesday. ~BRO && .AVIATION... While most locations can expect VFR conditions the next 24 hours, local areas of MVFR and IFR are possible in developing showers, mainly north of I-80. Local LIFR is possible over the mountains obscuring terrain. Snow levels will increase to 6,500-7,500 feet into this evening. South to southwesterly winds may gust to 20-25 knots over the Central Valley and Delta through 03Z. Winds will slacken into the overnight hours. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 As of 2030Z, water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over the Central Plains with a broad trough in the western US. Embedded in the southwesterly flow is a weak perturbation over northeastern CO and southwestern NE. At the surface, low pressure has been deepening in CO with the warm front still well to our south in northern OK. The main change in the short-term is the break-up of the stratus in eastern KS, which has not been handled well by the models. This is likely due to mesoscale subsidence occurring behind this morning`s showers and weak thunderstorms. With the WAA regime still in place and the fact that soundings still show a saturated boundary layer through the afternoon and evening, it`s tough to say when or if the stratus will fill back in this evening in this area, but CAMs do show showers developing ahead of the chance for storms tonight mainly near the NE border. Heading into tonight, the trend has been for storms to develop near the NE border after 9pm and progress northward. There remains a bit of uncertainty as to how far south in KS these storms develop, as some model runs have kept them entirely in NE while others have them initiating in north central KS near US-36. There was one run of the HRRR late this morning that brought an isolated cell as far south as Manhattan, but that appears to be an outlier at this point. In any case, consensus generally keeps the convection near the 850mb frontal boundary, which appears to be just north of the KS/NE border by 06Z. It is also around this time that the LLJ strengthens to 40- 50 kts. With all these factors in mind, this could provide enough lift in north central KS to overcome the cap. RAP and HRRR soundings show MUCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg at Concordia, although effective shear ranges between 25-40 kts -- the RAP and HRRR go up to 40 kts while the NAM has tended to stay within 35 kts. Large hail would be the primary threat with any elevated storms that may develop in this area tonight. Thursday is when we have the better potential for severe weather in the area, mainly in east central KS. By morning, the frontal boundary should be situated from southwest to north central KS, and there is generally good consensus to bring it near the Kansas Turnpike by 21-00Z. Storms should initiate along this boundary during this time frame and exit the area with it by 06Z. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at Emporia show CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, although bulk shear starts out around 25 kts in the afternoon before increasing to 40 kts in the evening. With that in mind, there is better potential for storms to develop with the eroding cap as well as the instability, but the timing of the shear along with the boundary placement may be the main piece to monitor to see how organized updrafts will become. Locally heavy rainfall with any storms will also be a concern. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Storms should be out of the CWA by 06Z Thursday. The boundary lingers in southeast KS during the day Friday, with some models trying to bring it slightly back north into east central KS while others keep it south of the CWA. Saturday the boundary does move further north with some variation as to how far north. Showers and thunderstorms will once again return to the area with a more amplified trough that moves into the area. Areas that see repeated rainfall may have some flooding concerns if they receive heavy rainfall on Thursday, but at this time the bulk of the rain looks to fall on Thursday. Next week, an amplified ridge returns dry weather to the area ahead of a deep trough moving onto the Pacific coast. Temperatures will be in the 70s to start the week, but increase well into the 80s by mid- week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020 For the 00Z TAFS, CIGS are expected to lower toward the IFR category after sunset. Thunderstorms could also develop around midnight mainly north of I-70, so do have mention of precip during the overnight period at sites to account for this possibility. LLWS criteria may also be met at the TOP terminals for a few hours tonight as a LLJ gets going. Dry conditions are expected for much of tomorrow morning and into the afternoon as a cold front begins to work across northeastern KS. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary tomorrow afternoon near the TOP terminals around 21Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Picha LONG TERM...Picha AVIATION...Teefey