Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/09/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will pass south of the Long Island
and move northeast to the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow morning bringing
some snow to the region. Light snow accumulations are expected for
most areas, especially on the grassy surfaces. Blustery and
unseasonably colder weather is expected for Mothers Day weekend,
with some additional passing rain and snow showers especially on
Saturday. Temperatures will remain below normal heading into next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1025 PM EDT...The latest RAP analysis has low pressure
just south of New York City and Long Island and moving
northeast. The mid and upper level trough is shifting from a
positive to neutral tilt with a secondary cold front and some
short-wave energy phasing into the developing cyclone allowing
it to deepen and intensify.
The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis shows the best H850-700 FGEN
is across northeast PA extending into the eastern Catskills,
Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. A secondary weaker band of FGEN
associated with the mid and upper level deformation zone is
across the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley into the
Lake George Saratoga Region. The NYS Mesonet cameras show snow
mainly north and west of the Capital District with snow mixing
with rain in the Capital region right now. The pcpn has been
mainly light in intensity with snow accumulations mainly a
slushy coating to less than an inch likely over the higher
terrain.
The highest snowfall amounts will be over the eastern Catskills
with 2-4", and possibly the southern Greens. The Berkshires,
northern/central Taconics including the Rensselaer Plateau could
have 1-3". 1-2" across the Litchfield Hills and southern
Adirondacks, and an inch or less in the major valleys.
The grassy surfaces will likely accumulate the best with soil
temperatures 2" down mainly in the 40s on the NYS mesonet.
The latest 3-km HRRR/NAMnest has the snow shield associated with
the wave quickly shifting eastward across the forecast area
with between 11 pm and 2 am. Some westerly upslope snow showers
will likely linger across the Taconics, southern Greens and
Berkshires until 4 am.
Temps will continue to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s and
spotty mid 30s. The winds will increase from the northwest at 10
to 20 mph with some gusts 30 to 35 mph towards daybreak. An SPS
may be issued later for locations that have the growing season
with temps falling at or below freezing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday morning, surface low in the Gulf of Maine continues to
intensify as upper trough becomes negatively tilted. Wind field
and magnitudes are of concern as mixing heights and wind
magnitudes within the layer will allow for occasional gusts into
the 30-40kt range. High values may result in wind headlines for
portions of the region. Furthermore, this too will allow for
the vortex, accompanied by around -40C H500 air to slide
southward during the daylight hours. Impressive lapse rates,
moist cyclonic flow, lake effect-enhancement from Lake Ontario
with increasing delta t/s, will result in convective elements of
rain/snow showers with perhaps some graupal. In fact, we may
see a new record monthly low H500 temperature on Saturday (quick
look at climatology shows values at or just below -30C for the
month of May). So PoPs will the highest into the terrain. High
temperatures, if we want to call it that, will be close to new
records for lowest maximum temperatures for the date as H850
temperatures will be near -10C.
Loss of daytime heating and passage of the cold pool will result
in the diminishing trend in precip coverage and wind magnitudes.
A variable sky coverage will be sure to allow for a very chilly
night and freeze warnings where the growing season has started
will likely be issued. Lows into the 20s and lower 30s (at or
below 32F) for valley locations.
Another PV anomaly currently in the vicinity of Alberta, is
forecast per the NCEP model suite and international guidance to
track across the upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and into
the eastern Great Lakes later Sunday into Sunday. So clouds will
be in the increase yet again and increasing probabilities for
rain/snow across the region, especially Sunday night. Thermal
profiles appear to be milder with areas along and south of I90
expected to be above freezing per H850. So highs Sunday moderate
back into the 40s and 50s with overnight lows mainly into the
30s and some lower 40s for the Capital Region and points
southward including Litchfield County CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast will feature below normal temperatures into
the middle of the week with a mean longwave trough in place over the
Northeast. However, a trend for moderating temperatures to more
seasonal levels is expected late in the week, as a warm front
approaches bringing some showers.
Monday into Monday Night...A short-wave trough approaches from the
lower Great Lakes Region and PA Monday morning. This disturbance is
forecast a bit further north compared to yesterday on the latest 12Z
GFS/ECMWF and several of the Ensembles. The cyclonic vorticity
advection associated with the short-wave and some weak warm
advection will produce some showers. The greatest threat will be
from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and southern VT southward
where we have chance and low likely PoPs. Further north, we have
slight chance values. This short-wave will help amplify the H500
long-wave trough with heights to 2 to 3 STDEVs below normal over
Midwest into the Northeast. H850 temps will be -2 to -3 STDEVs
below normal. The showers with the weak sfc wave lifting northeast
towards the Gulf of Maine Mon night should end, and their could
briefly be a few snow showers over the high peaks of the eastern
Catskills. Max temps on Monday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s
in the valleys with a few upper 50s over mid Hudson valley. Lows
will fall back in the mid 20s to around 30F over the mtns, and lower
to mid 30s in the valleys and over the hills. Some frost/freeze
issues are likely Monday night into Tuesday morning, as the growing
season will have begun across most of the region. There should be
a decent pressure gradient with west to northwest winds to 10 to 20
mph most of the night in the wake of the system.
Tuesday...Low pressure continues to move northeast into the Canadian
Maritimes with high pressure building in from the Midwest and TN
Valley. H850 temps based on the 12Z GEFS will again run -2 to -3
STDEVs below normal with highs around 15 degrees below normal. It
will continue to be brisk with a few lake effect showers maybe
impacting locations west of the Hudson River Valley in the
afternoon. High temps will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the
valleys and upper 30s to mid 40s over the mtns with a mixture of
clouds and sunshine.
Tuesday night into Thursday...Mainly dry weather is expected Tuesday
night into most of Thursday, as high pressure builds in from the OH
Valley into the Mid Atlantic States. The subsidence from the high
should provide increasing sunshine and lighter winds. Lows Tue
night will be similar to Monday night, and additional frost/freeze
headlines will be possible. Max temps in the 40s and 50s on WED
will trend warmer on THU with lower 50s to lower 60s over most of
the region, as low to mid level warm advection increases with the
sfc high building in from the south. A few showers may creep closer
to locations west of the Hudson Valley late THU pm.
Thursday Night into Friday...A more unsettled pattern begins as a
warm front moves toward the region with periods of showers. The
flow becomes more zonal aloft, as a wave of low pressure may pass
north of the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday. Temps trend towards
seasonal levels, as PoPs were increased to high chance and likely
values THU night into FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will move along or just south of Long Island and
southeast New England tonight and be near eastern Maine by
tomorrow morning. The cyclone will deepen and intensify as it
moves into New Brunswick tomorrow afternoon, as a mid and upper
level low will be over the region.
A mixture of snow and rain transitioning to all snow will occur
between 02Z-04Z for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The transition will
happen first at KGFL/KPSF and then will occur closer to 03Z-04Z
at KALB/KPOU. Expect cigs and vsbys to fall to MVFR levels at
all the TAF sites with IFR conditions possible at KALB/KPSF. We
kept IFR conditions in from 03Z-06Z/SAT at KALB and 02Z-09Z/SAT
at KPSF. The system is a fast mover and conditions should rise
back to VFR levels between 06Z-09Z with lingering snow or snow
showers at KALB/KPSF.
Expect widespread VFR with sct-bkn low and mid level clouds at
5-6 kft AGL/10-15 kft AGL towards 12Z/SAT. A brief period of
clearing is possible, but due to the chilly air mass aloft with
the upper low, expect sct-bkn stratocumulus/cumulus at 4-6 kft
AGL from the late morning into the afternoon with some rain or
snow showers around. We kept mainly VCSH groups in with likely
steadier showers at KPSF.
The winds will be northwest to west at 8-12 kts tonight, except
at KPSF/KPOU the winds will be 5-8 kts early on before becoming
northwest to west at 8-12 kts between 02Z-04Z/SAT. The winds
will increase from the west to northwest at 10-15 kts in the
early morning hours with some gusts 20-25 kts at KALB/KPSF. A
strong sfc pressure gradient will be over the region late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon with some mixing to 2-3 kft
AGL and the west/northwest winds will increase to 15-22 kts with
some gusts 30-35 kts.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered
SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy Isolated SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low Relative Humidity Values Between 25 and 35 percent and Wind
Gusts 35 to 45 mph Possible Tomorrow....
Rain and snow will overspread the region late this afternoon into
this evening resulting in over a quarter inch of precipitation from
the Capital Region into the mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT, the Berkshires
and eastern Catskills with under a quarter inch for areas north and
west of Albany.
Chilly air will be in place tomorrow with high temperatures only
reaching into the 30s and 40s for all areas. Relative humidity
values drop by tomorrow afternoon, ranging 25 to 35 percent. In
addition, northwesterly winds strengthen late tonight and stay
strong throughout the day tomorrow. Sustained winds strengthen to 15
to 25mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph. The strongest winds will
likely occur across west to east oriented valley areas including the
Mohawk Valley down into the Capital Region and into the Berkshires.
Scattered rain and snow shower will also occurr tomorrow during the
day.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers are expected to stay steady this weekend before gradually
dropping early next week.
Precipitation from a disturbance passing over the mid-Atlantic will
spread precipitation over the region from south to north starting
late this afternoon and continue into this evening. Areas from the
eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, the Berkshires, NW CT and the
Capital Region should receive between 0.25 and 0.50 inch with lower
amounts between a 0.10 and 0.25 inch falling over areas north and
west of the Capital Region. Initial precipitation should fall as
rain or rain/snow mix but should transition to snow this evening.
Additional scattered rain and snow showers are expected tomorrow
with most areas receiving about a tenth or less of precipitation
(highest amounts falling over the western facing slopes of the
Berkshires, southern Greens, and Taconics).
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
950 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
The biggest change for this update was to expand the Wind Advisory
to the north and east, now including all of far western and parts
of south central North Dakota. See previous update discussion for
reasoning. This expansion may not be inclusive enough, but it is a
start in the right direction and where confidence in stronger
winds is higher.
The rest of the forecast remains on track. A lone isolated
thunderstorm continues near Garrison, but is about to run out of
instability.
UPDATE Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Thunderstorms have become more isolated across northwest North
Dakota, but enough instability will remain present to support a
slight chance of thunder through the evening.
Models remain in very good agreement on the track of the strong
low pressure system moving in tonight. There are some timing
differences though. Most notably, recent runs of the HRRR have
been consistently slower than other guidance. This really does not
change the overall forecast message though. There also continues
to be some subtle differences in the low level thermal profiles
that will dictate how far south and west snow will fall, and for
how long. We still feel comfortable that any impacts from snow
will be limited to the current Winter Weather Advisory area. Still
looking at a potential for a narrow band of heavy snow near the
Turtle Mountains late tonight into Saturday morning. The residence
time for the heavy snow potential looks to be less than around 4
hours, but snowfall rates greater than one inch per hour are
possible, if not likely over that time frame. There may be some
mitigation in the total snow amounts due to the warmer ground, but
at those snow rates it would not take much more than an hour for
snow to start fully accumulating, at least on grassy surfaces.
The other pressing concern with this system is wind. The RAP, NAM,
and GFS all suggest a very strong isallobaric gradient on the
northwest side of the low as it moves from northwest to southeast
across the state. When surface pressure rises and low level cold
air advection are this strong in tandem, it is not uncommon to see
surface wind gusts exceed the mean boundary layer wind, which
appears to be around 30-40 kts. The timing of the strongest winds
looks to be from late tonight in the northwest to early Saturday
afternoon in south central North Dakota. An expansion of the Wind
Advisory may need to be considered with future forecast updates.
UPDATE Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Quick update to increase thunderstorm chances in northwest North
Dakota through the evening. Pea size hail and a 43 mph wind gust
were recently reported at the Williston Airport.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Strong Alberta Clipper sweeping through western and central North
Dakota and resultant winter weather advisory north central remains
the main highlight in the short term period. In addition, strong
winds forecast in far southwest North Dakota Saturday morning has
prompted a wind advisory issuance here.
Mid and high clouds persist over north central North Dakota
including the Turtle Mountains, and across the far west. Scattered
cirrus clouds dominated elsewhere. Warm front now into western North
Dakota will continue to shift east, reaching Renville County
southeast to Stutsman County this evening. Cold front will slice
across northeast Montana and southern Saskatchewan this evening,
then shift southeast overnight. Rain showers will initially form
west and north through the evening, then spread into central late
tonight. Colder 850mb temperatures (-6C to -8C) will move into the
north after midnight, resulting in a changeover to snow. BUFKIT
RAP13 sounding profiles show snow from 10z through 18z Saturday. A
band of heavy snow per NAM/GFS synoptic scale forcing/low level
frontogenesis/mid lapse rates are still aligned very well across the
Turtle Mountains tonight into Saturday morning. The winter weather
advisory highlighting 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts (3
to 5 inches in the Turtle Mountains) remains on track for timing
and location.
Strongest winds will reside in far southwest North Dakota Saturday
morning, and as mentioned above, will issue a wind advisory for
this. Elsewhere, winds will be gusty/northerly winds 20-35 mph
Saturday, with rain changing to snow from north to south, and highs
only in the 40s will make for a raw, miserable day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Another Alberta clipper is slated to slide across western North
Dakota Saturday night. Here comes yet another opportunity for light
snowfall accumulations. The NAM/GFS/EC all show various amounts, but
agree that some snowfall will occur. Will follow the NBM with snow
amounts of up to 1 inch across the southwest Saturday night.
It will remain cold Sunday through Tuesday with much below normal
temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the 20s each morning Sunday
through Tuesday, with daytime highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Conditions look dry Sunday and Monday, with the EC indicating
precipitation chances returning Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS keeps
precipitation chances confined to the southern counties Tuesday and
Wednesday. Dry weather resumes Thursday and Friday as a zonal flow
develops and temperatures rebound into the 50s Thursday, and lower
to mid 60s Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
A strong low pressure system will move across the region tonight
through Saturday. Multiple aviation hazards are expected this
forecast period, including strong northerly winds, MVFR ceilings,
and rain mixing with or changing to snow late tonight into
Saturday.
While a thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out at KXWA this
evening, lightning has become much more isolated and is currently
not close to nor expected to track close enough to KXWA to
warrant a TS mention in the TAF. Precipitation will increase from
northwest to southeast tonight, lasting through Saturday morning
before decreasing from northwest to southeast in the afternoon.
Expect the precipitation to be accompanied by ceilings lowering to
MVFR and possibly near IFR levels. Temperatures may become cold
enough tonight through Saturday morning for rain to mix with or
perhaps even change completely over to snow. Better chances for
snow exist the farther north and east you go, with KMOT being the
terminal with the best chance of seeing a period of prevailing
SN. MVFR and even IFR visibility is possible in any falling snow.
Western and central ND will see winds turning to the northwest and
eventually north tonight through Saturday. Expect a period of
sustained winds around 20-30 kts, gusting to 30-40 kts at each
terminal between late tonight and Saturday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/
Saturday for NDZ018-033-034-040>045.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM CDT Saturday for
NDZ003>005-012-013.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
Saturday for NDZ001-009-017-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1014 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Looking over new model data coming in, and not enough certainity
to make any changes to forecast for the late night/Sat AM period.
HRRR/RAP are just a bit farther west and HRRR warmer at the
surface for GFK, but was mentioned at shift brief earlier that
HRRR seemed a tad too warm. 00z NAM would indicate about the same
as prev thinking. As mentioned prior think immediate Red River
location of Grand Forks may end up a bit less than fcst snow wise
due to elevation.
UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
High and mid clouds increasing this evening. Preciptation area
well upstream yet but latest short term models indicate moving
into NW fcst area by 06z. Latest HRRR indicate heaviest snow more
in the area from Towner, NE Webster, W Waslh, Nelson, W Grand
Forks, Steele and Traill counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
We are still expecting a late season banded snow event to develop
over eastern North Dakota into northwest and west-central Minnesota
Saturday with accumulating snow expected, possibly locally
significant. Impacts associated with this storm include reduced
visibility due to heavy snowfall rates and difficult travel due to
wet, slushy snow.
A strengthening clipper system currently observed on satellite in
central AB is expected to move through North Dakota on Saturday
bringing a band of snow along with a cold soaking rain. Very strong
mesoscale forcing is anticipated given the signal for a deep and
intense frontogenetical circulation coupled with strong synoptic
forcing. Additionally, conditional instability in the form of low
level EPV should feed into the fgen circulation. Also steep mid
level lapse rates around 7 C/km, a saturated DGZ, and strongest
level of forcing for ascent collocate around 700 - 500 mb above a
saturated 0 to -10C column. These expected mesoscale features all
lend high confidence in heavy snow rates of 1 inch per hour, perhaps
at times higher, within a thin band of snow before mid morning
Saturday. The anticipated area of precip before mid morning Saturday
resides over the Devils Lake basin, thus heavy snowfall rates may
linger here for several hours, bringing the potential for locally
significant snowfall amounts, ie greater than 6 inches.
Recent guidance has trended a bit later than previously forecast,
likely due to an overall slower movement into the area as well as
low level dry air ahead of the clipper confining snowfall towards
the area of strongest forcing near the H7 low center. The suggested
delay pushes snow chances a bit further into daytime hours, and
under a strong May sun accumulation will be harder to come by due to
compaction/melting. Additionally, hires guidance suggests the Red
River Valley warms a bit more than those outside of the Valley after
mid morning, a topographic feature that has been seen before during
early/late season snow events. Those that will see highest snow
amounts will be for locations that receive snow during early morning
hours Saturday when temperatures are coolest. This pinpoints the
Devils Lake basin with best chance for seeing highest accumulation.
Those outside of the Devils Lake basin have a higher chance of
seeing rain/snow mix with lesser accumulations expected if any
accumulation at all, with this mix likely through the daytime hours,
especially within the southern Red River Valley. Gusty winds
accompany this clipper, especially on the backside of the low with
highest chance for seeing greater than 35 mph gusts in southeast ND.
Confidence remains low on specific locations of highest amounts as
the predictability horizon of mesoscale features is very short, on
the order of hours leading up to the event. With this in mind, don`t
be surprised if a Winter Weather Advisory is upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning over a very locally confined area Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
On Sunday, cold northerly winds will exist across the region in the
wake of the departing low pressure system. We`ll have northerly flow
aloft across the region as well. The upper flow will transition to
westerly by Tuesdy night as a ridge pushes east. However, an upper
level wave is expected to move east across the area on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. With cold air aloft still in the area, snow will
be a possiblity again, but most of the precipitation should be
rain. Temperatures will generally warm through the week with highs
in the 40s Sun/Mon and in the 60s by Friday. No impacts are
expected during this period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Mid and high clouds increase this evening, leading to MVFR and IFR
cigs/vsbys for a time late tonight/SAT AM esp in DVL,GFK for snow
and in Fargo for a mix. Vsbys within the heavy snow band likely in
between these 3 TAF sites will be under 1 mile. BJI and TVF on the
outer edge of this system and less impacted.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM CDT Saturday for
NDZ006-007-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...None.
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
925 PM MDT Fri May 8 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Evening Update: Refreshed the POP grids to reflect the passage of
the frontal band of rain that is passing through this evening.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains with cooling
temperatures and another round of showers expected tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Roxy
Afternoon Update: High resolution models such as the HRRR and HREF
have been resolving the current convection fairly well this
afternoon, so those were leaned on heavily for the update to the
precip forecast this afternoon. Other short-term models such as
the WRF models and Cons blends have shown enough forecast skill in
the near term to be included as well. Rain will continue to spread
across the region through the evening hours, and then dry out from
west to east by tomorrow morning. While in the coldest areas along
the edge of the precipitation some light snow may mix in with the
rain, there shouldn`t be any accumulations anywhere in the region,
even through the weekend as more isolated to scattered
precipitation pushes through the region.
Cliff
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A cold front will track through the region today with increasing
chances for rain showers by the afternoon into tonight. Lingering
showers are possible into the weekend, otherwise expect
temperatures to trend lower, below normal for this time of year.
Along with these colder temperatures, look for frost potential and
associated impacts, especially at night with lows around or below
freezing.
Upper ridging to the west will amplify on Monday, with Northwest
flow aloft pushing through NE Montana. This will result in dry
weather conditions, though temperatures remaining on the cooler
side.
While ensemble spread in the 500mb heights is evident at larger
time scales toward the middle of next week, the next approaching
shortwave is evident with chances for rain showers increasing for
that period. Otherwise, do expect a modest and gradual warm up
through the week ahead. Will keep forecast in line with consensus
blends capturing these ideas for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
Expected Flight Category: MVFR-VFR
Synopsis: Showers and some thunderstorms will move over regional
airfields through tomorrow morning, before western areas clear out
some until convection re-fires tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings under
the strongest rains and any thunderstorms should dip into MVFR
territory. Ceilings in some areas could get close to IFR
overnight, but should generally remain in MVFR.
Winds: Winds will be variable in speed and direction as rain and
storms push through the region overnight, but expect prevailing
winds to be west to northwest at 20-30 kts until tomorrow morning
and then relax back to 10-20 kts for tomorrow.
Cliff
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a deep
upper trough positioned over the northern Great Lakes early this
afternoon. 850mb temperatures are running 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal for this time of the year. The cold air
aloft combined with the high sun angle and steep low level lapse
rates have generated snow showers and flurries over far northern
WI and down the northeast WI Lake Michigan shoreline. In addition,
temps have struggled to rise above 30 degrees at some locations
over the northwoods by midday. As high pressure builds into the
area tonight, forecast concerns mainly revolve around temperatures
and the freeze warning headlines.
Tonight...Like the previous forecaster mentioned, high pressure
will be drifting towards the area by late tonight. Winds will
likely diminish across most of the area except for far northeast
WI possibly, where BL winds will remain in the 15 to 20 kts range
for most of the night. That may be just enough to keep winds from
decoupling and reduce the risk of a heavy frost deposit. Still
though, with temps remaining in the 30s for most of the area so
far today, it shouldn`t be too hard to far temps to fall below
freezing, and guidance has remained steady in terms of low temps
tonight. So no changes to the Freeze Warning. The record lows for
Saturday morning are quite cold so new record lows seem unlikely.
Clouds should dissipate with loss of heating and modifying temps
aloft, but additional clouds north of Lake Superior will likely
brush northern parts of the forecast area. Lows ranging from the
low 20s over the northwoods to near 30 by the lakeshore.
Saturday...The morning will start out sunny, which will allow for
temps to quickly warm above freezing by 8 to 9 am. Then clouds
will be on the increase ahead of the next system, which will move
into the northern Mississippi Valley in the afternoon. A pocket of
warm air ahead of the low will lead to a rebound of temps into the
mid 40s to mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
A clipper system tracking just south of the region will bring a
lake season snowfall to the region Saturday night and Sunday. The
low appears to have shifted a bit north with this recent run.
bringing the snow a bit further north than previous forecasts.
Despite the time of year the system is moving through during a
favorable time, during the overnight hours. Most of the snowfall
accumulation is expected to be on grassy surfaces with most areas
getting a light dusting of snowfall accumulation. There is the
potential for 1 to 2 inches of snowfall across portions of central
and north-central Wisconsin where the best forcing, moisture, and
cold temperatures will coincide. The snow will change over to rain
throughout Sunday morning as the sun rises and the low pulls away
from the region with the rain expected to taper off by Sunday
afternoon.
High pressure will bring a return to dry weather early next week
as temperatures remain below normal for this time of year.
Frost/freeze conditions are expected across most of the area
during this period.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels by the middle to late
part of next week, as the threat for frost/freeze headlines
dissipates. Several low pressure systems could bring rain during
this period as the pattern becomes a bit more active.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
VFR conditions are anticipated through much of this TAF period,
the exception will be across central Wisconsin late tomorrow
evening.
The next area of low pressure will approach northeast Wisconsin
Saturday night and linger into the day Sunday. This will bring a
chance of rain and snow showers to all of the TAF sites, along
with reduced visibilities and lower ceilings. Some minor snow
accumulation is possible. Central Wisconsin will likely see an
increase in mid clouds toward the end of this TAF period as the
system approaches from the west.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the week.
Relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent are expected again
Saturday afternoon, with winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25
mph. Relative humidity values will rise into the 35 to 50 percent
range on Sunday with the expected clouds and precip, then should
fall back into the 20 to 30 percent range by early next week.
Green up will slowly works its way northward through the period,
as will the greatest fire weather danger.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Cooley
FIRE WEATHER...MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the area tonight. Arctic high
pressure will build into the region over the weekend. A cold
front with limited moisture is forecast to cross the area Sunday
night or early Monday followed by high pressure for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
As of 10 PM Fri...Ocnl -ra or sprinkles continue ahead of strong
cold front moving our way. The front currently stretched from sw
to ne from about Asheville to Lynchburg to Dover, DE. Strong
pres rises occurring behind the front, with HRRR indicating
about 9mb/6hrly rises. Strong surge of wind gusts expected
behind it late tonight, and for those areas that did not
receive wind adv with prefrontal swrly winds, will have another
chance at it as winds turn sharply nwrly and gust upwards of
45-50 mph possible for the OBX and Downeast. Ocnl shra will
continue through the overnight, ending prior to sunrise and
skies rapidly clearing.
Prev discussion...As of 7 PM Fri...Light sprinkles attm with
first batch of rain moving through, but this is mostly falling
as virga. Better chance of a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch later this evening and overnight as more precip moves into
a more saturated column. No changes with likely pops overnight.
Prev discussion... As of 4 PM Fri...Gusty SW winds and WAA
continue ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest upper
level support for lift will pass north of the area tonight, but
mid level PVA will prompt enough dynamic influence to overcome
the fairly dry boundary layer, bringing scattered to widespread
showers ahead of and along the front this evening and overnight.
Do not expect much QPF, generally less than a quarter inch, as
the system will not have a lot of moisture associated with PW
values only briefly peaking around one inch. Wind shift NW
behind the front early Saturday morning and remain gusty. Wind
Advisories in effect for the southern OBX through the evening
and overnight, and for the northern OBX for just the post-
frontal NW flow Sat AM. Temps will drop into the mid 40s inland
to around 50 coast by daybreak Sat.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 4 PM Fri...Cool high pressure builds in quickly from the
west through the day, with gusty NW winds in the morning
becoming moderate in the afternoon. Deep layer subsidence will
bring sunny skies and dry conditions. Strong CAA will limit
highs to the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is around 15 degrees
below normal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 PM Fri...Temperatures will be much below normal this
weekend with record low temperatures expected Saturday night as
a deep mid level trough persists across the Eastern US for the
next week or more.
Saturday Night and Sunday...High pressure with dry conditions
will build over Eastern NC over the weekend producing much below
normal temperatures. Sat night should see record cold with a
bonafide radiational cooling night as high pressure settles
directly over our CWA. Many inland locations dropping into the
low to mid 30s with patchy frost likely. Highs Sunday again will
only be in the low to mid 60s.
Monday Through Thursday...Below normal temps will continue
early next week. A cold front with limited moisture is forecast
to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday morning. Could
see isolated showers with the front but the models are fairly
pessimistic with moisture with very dry mid and upper levels.
Highs Mon warm into the low to mid 70s in the westerly downslope
flow behind the cold front. Then cooler and dry weather
expected for Tue and Wed as high pressure builds over the area.
Lows Mon and Tue nights inland will be be in the chilly 40s with
highs Tue in the 60s. Moderating temperatures into the 70s are
expected Wed as weak return flow associated with the high moving
off of the coast develops. Highs on Thursday get cranked up into
the upper 70s as the southerly return flow increases.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...Gusty SW winds this afternoon into this
evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A few hours
of MVFR is possible along and immediately behind the cold front,
which will cross the area late tonight, and scattered to
widespread showers could bringing brief periods of additional
flight restrictions. Mostly low end VFR skies with the system
tonight. Winds become gusty NW behind the cold front early
Saturday morning, with sunny skies returning during the day as
high pres begins to build in. Winds become light to calm by
sunset tomorrow night.
Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 410 AM Friday...VFR expected through Sunday as high
pressure builds back over the area. A cold front with limited
moisture is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or
early Mon morning but with only limited potential to produce
rain, not expecting any impacts to ceilings or visibilities at
this time.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Fri...SWrly gales are developing a bit slower than
expected this afternoon, but gusty winds will continue to
increase through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front,
which will cross the area late. Winds shift NW behind the front
and remain strong early Sat AM before gradually diminishing
through the late morning and afternoon as high pressure quickly
builds in from the west. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the
nearshore waters and the Pamlico Sound, with SCAs elsewhere.
Seas peak at 6-10 ft late tonight before gradually diminishing
through the day Saturday.
Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday...Winds will drop below Gales through
Saturday morning and subside to 10-15 kts by Saturday afternoon.
Seas are then forecast to subside to 3-5 ft by early Sat
evening. Winds will become SW 10-15 kt Sunday ahead of the next
cold front shifting W 10-15 kt behind the front late Sunday
night into Mon. Seas are forecast to be 2-3 ft both days. Winds
shift NW 20-25 kts briefly late Mon night into Tuesday morning
as building high pressure from the west creates a tight gradient
with a low off the coast of New England. Waves will build
briefly to 3-4 ft during this time. Winds will then subside to
8-12 kts by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure becomes more
dominant over the area with waves dropping back down to 2-3 feet
as well.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 215 PM Friday...The high astronomical tide cycle
associated with the flower moon will continue to bring elevated
tidal ranges into the weekend, especially near inlets and along
the beaches. With the addition of strong southwest to northwest
winds, expect to see areas of minor flooding along the soundside
of the Outer Banks north of Buxton (including portions of
Roanoke Island) this evening into early Saturday morning.
Inundation 1-2 ft of above ground will be possible for low lying
areas adjacent to the sound.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for 05/10 (Sunday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 42/1977 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 41/1983 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 37/1986 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 42/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 36/1986 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 42/1980 (KNCA ASOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ131-136-
137-230-231.
Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...TL/ML
MARINE...CB/ML
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
649 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020
Well it`s a beautiful November afternoon here in Upper Michigan -
just in May. Visible satellite continues to show widespread broken
cloud cover as lake-effect clouds continue to move onshore from Lake
Superior in NNW flow beneath 850 mb temperatures around -14 C per
SPC Mesoanalysis. Coupled with lake surface temps around 37-38 F
that`s good enough for a delta T of about 17 C. However, the
brighter May sun has allowed the PBL to mix more than it otherwise
would in a typical lake-effect setup, keeping cloud bases up around
4000-5000 feet or more. In addition, with the short wave that
ushered in this cold air now over Lake Huron, and anticyclonic dCVA
behind it contributing to further subsidence, the more robust snow
showers we saw this morning have devolved into lighter snow showers
with a more speckled appearance on radar. The downward trend will
continue through the evening for most of us. As clouds thin
somewhat, there will still be some additional warming over the next
few hours, but so far temps have underperformed even the already-
cold forecast. We`re just now getting to freezing in many places and
we`ll probably only manage to tack on another 1-3 degrees, at most.
Tonight, a secondary short wave embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft
will rotate down from James Bay through northern Ontario and just
clip eastern Lake Superior. It`s not as strong as this morning`s
wave, and overall after this evening there`s a slight warming trend
in mid-level temps, but there will still be enough of a combination
of synoptic scale lift and lake-based instability for an additional
round of lake-effect snow showers. With the wind backing around to
NW as ridging approaches from the west, and again with most of the
forcing remaining east of the area, this snow should be confined to
areas east of Munising, primarily Luce County. And we`re still not
talking big amounts either; liquid equivalent precip should be less
than 0.1" unless the big band the HRRR is advertising sets up (it
most likely won`t) so additional snow tonight should only be around
an inch in these areas. Even without enough moisture and lift for
precip, lake-effect clouds will continue to cover the U.P. through
most of the night, finally clearing over the west half early
tomorrow morning. Cloud cover should keep temps tonight from
plummeting too hard although the higher bases still leave room for
some radiational cooling. Therefore lows in the 20s are expected,
lowest interior west and warmest along the lakeshores and over the
east where the cloud cover will be the thickest.
Lake-effect snow showers wrap up by late morning tomorrow as 850 mb
temps warm from about -10 C in the morning to about -5 C by
afternoon. The clouds will be slowest to clear east, but over the
west and central it will become a mostly sunny day by early
afternoon. The cold air aloft plus sunny skies should cause deep
mixing to at least 6000 feet. And while the air aloft isn`t bone
dry, it`s dry enough that dew points will probably fall to around 10
or even into the single digits over the west half resulting in RH
near or below 20%. That deep mixing will also help highs reach the
upper 40s or lower 50s west and south despite the anomalous cold
aloft. But east where clouds linger into the afternoon highs will
struggle to get much past 40. By the end of the day, cloud cover
works back in from the west ahead of the next system, the
Saskatchewan Screamer that will be, well, screaming, through
Minnesota this time tomorrow.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020
Models suggest that the high amplitude pattern with a blocking
mid/upper level ridge over western North America and troughing over
the east will transition to a more zonal pattern. The strong
positive height anomalies will shift north of AK as a mid level low
develops over north central Canada allowing shortwaves in the
developing west or wsw flow to move into the Great Lakes. Well below
average temps will moderate closer to normal toward the middle of
next week.
Saturday night into Sunday, models were in good agreement that a
shortwave or compact mid level low will slide through southern MN
into Southern WI. A band of snow supported by mid level
deformation/fgen may brush locations near the WI border. However,
given the very dry low levels and expected sharp moisture/pcpn
cutoff on the northern portion of the snow band, the forecast keeps
the POPs south of all but southern Menominee County where lower end
chance POPs were mentioned. Another batch of cold air will drop into
the area behind the low with 850 mb temps again down to around -9C.
So with brisk low level northerly flow, max readings will remain in
the upper 30s north to the low and mid 40s south.
Mon-Tue, the ECMWF and GEM were more aggressive with a clipper
shortwave dropping through the area by Mon night. Although this
feature could bring some light pcpn, with little moisture available,
any amounts would be minimal. However, with 850 mb temps possibly
dropping to near -13C, per ECMWF, some lake effect/enhanced snow may
be possible over the east. Otherwise, very dry conditions will
persist with breezy north winds of 10 to 20 mph and RH values to
near 20 percent. However, Highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s
should reduce fire weather potential.
Wed-Fri, with the more zonal pattern, the models were consistent in
bringing a shrtwv toward the Great Lakes. The sfc low passing south
of the area with an inverted trough into the area will bring
strengthening isentropic lift and moisture advection toward Upper
Michigan. Some rain is looking more likely by Thu, even though
differences remain with the timing/position of these features.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 649 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020
The winter-like pattern continues with blustery NW winds and lake-
effect clouds. Conditions are VFR and are expected to stay that way
throughout the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020
With historically cold air remaining in place aloft, the unstable
atmosphere will continue to allow for 25-30 kt winds over the east
half of the lake this evening through Saturday afternoon. Did
include some gusts right up to around 34 kts, mainly in the next few
hours while the coldest air aloft is still around, but these will be
very sporadic and not worthy of a Gale Warning. Winds dip below 20
kts on the west half tomorrow evening, but winds increase back to 20-
25 kts Saturday night as a fast-moving low pressure system races
across Wisconsin. These stronger N winds persist into Monday but by
Tuesday light winds look to return to the region as high pressure
begins to nudge in from the west.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...07
MARINE...RJC
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Clear skies cool temperatures and high pressure are in place over
Nebraska, with northwesterly flow aloft in place. A shortwave
disturbance is currently centered over western Montana, and is
expected to move southeast across the Central Plains. As the high
pressure center moves eastward tonight, light winds and strong
radiative cooling are expected to produce overnight lows in the
mid 30`s to just above freezing. These cool temperatures and weak
winds are expected to allow the formation of frost in eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa, ahead of a shield of mid to upper
level clouds moving in from the west overnight. These clouds and
and the southerly surface flow overnight are expected to keep
central Nebraska`s overnight lows a tad bit higher.
The shortwave over Montana is expected to force chances for
showers Saturday afternoon into the evening. Surface-based CAPE
values from the extended 18z run of the HRRR suggest CAPE values
may reach over 500 J/kg, allowing for some embedded thunderstorms
to exist with the precipitation. This precipitation may limit the
cooling Sunday morning, and with stronger winds expected may limit
frost development Sunday morning. Monday will be the best chance
for another frosty morning, with cool temperatures once again
alongside calm winds.
Beyond Monday, the northwesterly flow is expected to progress
eastward and will be centered with the Central Plains on Tuesday
with precipitation chances returning Wednesday morning. Model
solutions from the ECMWF and CMC suggest a leeward cyclogenesis
to occur, and may provide our next good chance at showers and
storms into Thursday morning. Overall the combination of
shortwaves this weekend and going into next, alongside the
possible system Wednesday are expected combine to continue the
active pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020
Terminal forecasts are quiet for the next 24 hours. Diminishing
surface winds tonight will drop to calm and variable at times.
They`ll redevelop out of the south on Saturday. VFR conditions
may persist through Saturday. As of this forecast issuance,
expecting KOMA and KLNK to develop MVFR cigs after 20Z Saturday
evening with the passage of the light rain showers.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ015-033-034-
044-045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
IA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...TSNicolaisen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1008 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Only light showers are expected with the frontal passage
overnight, continued the trend of adjusting PoPs and QPF downward
a bit. Otherwise, the previous forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [647 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Saturday]...
Rain chances looking less impressive with tonight`s front as best
moisture/instability never really gets into the area and forcing is
weak. Have capped PoPs at 60% over the north/west and in the chance
category elsewhere. Thunder mention confined primarily to the
Panhandle and even there it looks doubtful. Winds will shift to the
north then northeast after midnight tonight as cooler air ushers
back in. On Saturday introduced low PoPs to the waters and our
southern counties as it looks like there will be enough lift north
of the front for at least isolated showers. Otherwise a cooler and
much drier day is in store.
No changes to the SCA at this time. Winds will be generally below
advisory levels through the evening then pick up behind the front
after midnight. Highest confidence we`ll reach criteria remains
over the western waters and the offshore zones. Next shift can
expand eastward through the Big Bend if necessary.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday night and Sunday]...
Cold front will stall across central Florida Saturday night.
However, as a shortwave crosses the Gulf and a wave of low
pressure develops in the southern Gulf, enough moisture will be
pushed back north across the front to support showers across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Exactly where the northern
edge of the precip sets up is uncertain, as there will likely be a
rather sharp cut-off. However, best rain chances will generally be
south and east of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta. Even for
areas that do get rain, amounts will be minimal and generally less
than one-quarter inch. After lows in the 50s across the area
Sunday morning, highs will generally reach the upper 70s, with
slightly cooler temperatures in the SE Big Bend where the rain and
thicker cloud cover will reside.l
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Deep upper trough along the eastern seaboard will deamplify by
early in the week, replaced by largely zonal flow along the Gulf
Coast. Expect mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through Tuesday. By Wednesday, upper ridging will begin to build
over the area, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s.
Onshore flow during this period may eventually increase low-level
moisture enough for a few isolated showers, but chances remain low
at this time, with minimal upper support for lift.
.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]
Rain chances continue to look less and less impressive as dry low
levels and a lack of instability have really taken a bite out of
the approaching rain shield. Do expect some increase in coverage
as the cold front approaches, especially further south and west,
and have carried a tempo group at ECP and DHN and PROB30s at TLH
and VLD. Latest CAMS including the new HRRR suggest at least
scattered showers may linger south of I-10 into Saturday but not
worth a mention in the terminals. Still expect a band of MVFR
ceilings along and behind the front for a few hours before drier
air wins out. Winds will shift to the northeast and become a
little gusty after midnight.
.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds will continue to increase this afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front, with a Small Craft Advisory in
place. Offshore advisory-level winds will follow the frontal
passage tonight into Saturday morning, before diminishing and
remaining below headline criteria into early next week.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will shift from southwesterly to northeasterly overnight as a
cold front moves through the area. Much lower RH values can be
expected Saturday afternoon as drier air moves in. Much of our
Georgia and Alabaman areas will be close to or below critical
humidity levels but winds will be low enough that Red Flag
conditions are not expected. Slightly higher RH values for Sunday
then drier conditions again on Monday. Only light rainfall is
expected through the period.
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts through Sunday will generally be less than one-
quarter inch, with no flooding concerns expected.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 56 77 55 78 53 / 40 10 20 30 0
Panama City 57 76 58 78 58 / 40 10 20 20 0
Dothan 50 72 50 78 51 / 40 10 10 0 0
Albany 51 73 50 78 52 / 30 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 55 75 54 76 54 / 30 10 20 20 0
Cross City 62 77 58 77 57 / 20 20 30 30 10
Apalachicola 60 75 60 75 58 / 30 20 30 30 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...Johnstone
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Johnstone
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Johnstone
HYDROLOGY...Camp