Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/09/20

National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will pass south of the Long Island and move northeast to the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow morning bringing some snow to the region. Light snow accumulations are expected for most areas, especially on the grassy surfaces. Blustery and unseasonably colder weather is expected for Mothers Day weekend, with some additional passing rain and snow showers especially on Saturday. Temperatures will remain below normal heading into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 1025 PM EDT...The latest RAP analysis has low pressure just south of New York City and Long Island and moving northeast. The mid and upper level trough is shifting from a positive to neutral tilt with a secondary cold front and some short-wave energy phasing into the developing cyclone allowing it to deepen and intensify. The latest SPC RAP Mesoanalysis shows the best H850-700 FGEN is across northeast PA extending into the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. A secondary weaker band of FGEN associated with the mid and upper level deformation zone is across the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley into the Lake George Saratoga Region. The NYS Mesonet cameras show snow mainly north and west of the Capital District with snow mixing with rain in the Capital region right now. The pcpn has been mainly light in intensity with snow accumulations mainly a slushy coating to less than an inch likely over the higher terrain. The highest snowfall amounts will be over the eastern Catskills with 2-4", and possibly the southern Greens. The Berkshires, northern/central Taconics including the Rensselaer Plateau could have 1-3". 1-2" across the Litchfield Hills and southern Adirondacks, and an inch or less in the major valleys. The grassy surfaces will likely accumulate the best with soil temperatures 2" down mainly in the 40s on the NYS mesonet. The latest 3-km HRRR/NAMnest has the snow shield associated with the wave quickly shifting eastward across the forecast area with between 11 pm and 2 am. Some westerly upslope snow showers will likely linger across the Taconics, southern Greens and Berkshires until 4 am. Temps will continue to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s and spotty mid 30s. The winds will increase from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts 30 to 35 mph towards daybreak. An SPS may be issued later for locations that have the growing season with temps falling at or below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday morning, surface low in the Gulf of Maine continues to intensify as upper trough becomes negatively tilted. Wind field and magnitudes are of concern as mixing heights and wind magnitudes within the layer will allow for occasional gusts into the 30-40kt range. High values may result in wind headlines for portions of the region. Furthermore, this too will allow for the vortex, accompanied by around -40C H500 air to slide southward during the daylight hours. Impressive lapse rates, moist cyclonic flow, lake effect-enhancement from Lake Ontario with increasing delta t/s, will result in convective elements of rain/snow showers with perhaps some graupal. In fact, we may see a new record monthly low H500 temperature on Saturday (quick look at climatology shows values at or just below -30C for the month of May). So PoPs will the highest into the terrain. High temperatures, if we want to call it that, will be close to new records for lowest maximum temperatures for the date as H850 temperatures will be near -10C. Loss of daytime heating and passage of the cold pool will result in the diminishing trend in precip coverage and wind magnitudes. A variable sky coverage will be sure to allow for a very chilly night and freeze warnings where the growing season has started will likely be issued. Lows into the 20s and lower 30s (at or below 32F) for valley locations. Another PV anomaly currently in the vicinity of Alberta, is forecast per the NCEP model suite and international guidance to track across the upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes later Sunday into Sunday. So clouds will be in the increase yet again and increasing probabilities for rain/snow across the region, especially Sunday night. Thermal profiles appear to be milder with areas along and south of I90 expected to be above freezing per H850. So highs Sunday moderate back into the 40s and 50s with overnight lows mainly into the 30s and some lower 40s for the Capital Region and points southward including Litchfield County CT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast will feature below normal temperatures into the middle of the week with a mean longwave trough in place over the Northeast. However, a trend for moderating temperatures to more seasonal levels is expected late in the week, as a warm front approaches bringing some showers. Monday into Monday Night...A short-wave trough approaches from the lower Great Lakes Region and PA Monday morning. This disturbance is forecast a bit further north compared to yesterday on the latest 12Z GFS/ECMWF and several of the Ensembles. The cyclonic vorticity advection associated with the short-wave and some weak warm advection will produce some showers. The greatest threat will be from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and southern VT southward where we have chance and low likely PoPs. Further north, we have slight chance values. This short-wave will help amplify the H500 long-wave trough with heights to 2 to 3 STDEVs below normal over Midwest into the Northeast. H850 temps will be -2 to -3 STDEVs below normal. The showers with the weak sfc wave lifting northeast towards the Gulf of Maine Mon night should end, and their could briefly be a few snow showers over the high peaks of the eastern Catskills. Max temps on Monday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the valleys with a few upper 50s over mid Hudson valley. Lows will fall back in the mid 20s to around 30F over the mtns, and lower to mid 30s in the valleys and over the hills. Some frost/freeze issues are likely Monday night into Tuesday morning, as the growing season will have begun across most of the region. There should be a decent pressure gradient with west to northwest winds to 10 to 20 mph most of the night in the wake of the system. Tuesday...Low pressure continues to move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes with high pressure building in from the Midwest and TN Valley. H850 temps based on the 12Z GEFS will again run -2 to -3 STDEVs below normal with highs around 15 degrees below normal. It will continue to be brisk with a few lake effect showers maybe impacting locations west of the Hudson River Valley in the afternoon. High temps will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the valleys and upper 30s to mid 40s over the mtns with a mixture of clouds and sunshine. Tuesday night into Thursday...Mainly dry weather is expected Tuesday night into most of Thursday, as high pressure builds in from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic States. The subsidence from the high should provide increasing sunshine and lighter winds. Lows Tue night will be similar to Monday night, and additional frost/freeze headlines will be possible. Max temps in the 40s and 50s on WED will trend warmer on THU with lower 50s to lower 60s over most of the region, as low to mid level warm advection increases with the sfc high building in from the south. A few showers may creep closer to locations west of the Hudson Valley late THU pm. Thursday Night into Friday...A more unsettled pattern begins as a warm front moves toward the region with periods of showers. The flow becomes more zonal aloft, as a wave of low pressure may pass north of the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday. Temps trend towards seasonal levels, as PoPs were increased to high chance and likely values THU night into FRI. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure will move along or just south of Long Island and southeast New England tonight and be near eastern Maine by tomorrow morning. The cyclone will deepen and intensify as it moves into New Brunswick tomorrow afternoon, as a mid and upper level low will be over the region. A mixture of snow and rain transitioning to all snow will occur between 02Z-04Z for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The transition will happen first at KGFL/KPSF and then will occur closer to 03Z-04Z at KALB/KPOU. Expect cigs and vsbys to fall to MVFR levels at all the TAF sites with IFR conditions possible at KALB/KPSF. We kept IFR conditions in from 03Z-06Z/SAT at KALB and 02Z-09Z/SAT at KPSF. The system is a fast mover and conditions should rise back to VFR levels between 06Z-09Z with lingering snow or snow showers at KALB/KPSF. Expect widespread VFR with sct-bkn low and mid level clouds at 5-6 kft AGL/10-15 kft AGL towards 12Z/SAT. A brief period of clearing is possible, but due to the chilly air mass aloft with the upper low, expect sct-bkn stratocumulus/cumulus at 4-6 kft AGL from the late morning into the afternoon with some rain or snow showers around. We kept mainly VCSH groups in with likely steadier showers at KPSF. The winds will be northwest to west at 8-12 kts tonight, except at KPSF/KPOU the winds will be 5-8 kts early on before becoming northwest to west at 8-12 kts between 02Z-04Z/SAT. The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 10-15 kts in the early morning hours with some gusts 20-25 kts at KALB/KPSF. A strong sfc pressure gradient will be over the region late tomorrow morning into the afternoon with some mixing to 2-3 kft AGL and the west/northwest winds will increase to 15-22 kts with some gusts 30-35 kts. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...SHSN. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy Isolated SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low Relative Humidity Values Between 25 and 35 percent and Wind Gusts 35 to 45 mph Possible Tomorrow.... Rain and snow will overspread the region late this afternoon into this evening resulting in over a quarter inch of precipitation from the Capital Region into the mid-Hudson Valley, NW CT, the Berkshires and eastern Catskills with under a quarter inch for areas north and west of Albany. Chilly air will be in place tomorrow with high temperatures only reaching into the 30s and 40s for all areas. Relative humidity values drop by tomorrow afternoon, ranging 25 to 35 percent. In addition, northwesterly winds strengthen late tonight and stay strong throughout the day tomorrow. Sustained winds strengthen to 15 to 25mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph. The strongest winds will likely occur across west to east oriented valley areas including the Mohawk Valley down into the Capital Region and into the Berkshires. Scattered rain and snow shower will also occurr tomorrow during the day. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers are expected to stay steady this weekend before gradually dropping early next week. Precipitation from a disturbance passing over the mid-Atlantic will spread precipitation over the region from south to north starting late this afternoon and continue into this evening. Areas from the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley, the Berkshires, NW CT and the Capital Region should receive between 0.25 and 0.50 inch with lower amounts between a 0.10 and 0.25 inch falling over areas north and west of the Capital Region. Initial precipitation should fall as rain or rain/snow mix but should transition to snow this evening. Additional scattered rain and snow showers are expected tomorrow with most areas receiving about a tenth or less of precipitation (highest amounts falling over the western facing slopes of the Berkshires, southern Greens, and Taconics). For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM/Wasula NEAR TERM...BGM/Wasula SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
950 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 The biggest change for this update was to expand the Wind Advisory to the north and east, now including all of far western and parts of south central North Dakota. See previous update discussion for reasoning. This expansion may not be inclusive enough, but it is a start in the right direction and where confidence in stronger winds is higher. The rest of the forecast remains on track. A lone isolated thunderstorm continues near Garrison, but is about to run out of instability. UPDATE Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Thunderstorms have become more isolated across northwest North Dakota, but enough instability will remain present to support a slight chance of thunder through the evening. Models remain in very good agreement on the track of the strong low pressure system moving in tonight. There are some timing differences though. Most notably, recent runs of the HRRR have been consistently slower than other guidance. This really does not change the overall forecast message though. There also continues to be some subtle differences in the low level thermal profiles that will dictate how far south and west snow will fall, and for how long. We still feel comfortable that any impacts from snow will be limited to the current Winter Weather Advisory area. Still looking at a potential for a narrow band of heavy snow near the Turtle Mountains late tonight into Saturday morning. The residence time for the heavy snow potential looks to be less than around 4 hours, but snowfall rates greater than one inch per hour are possible, if not likely over that time frame. There may be some mitigation in the total snow amounts due to the warmer ground, but at those snow rates it would not take much more than an hour for snow to start fully accumulating, at least on grassy surfaces. The other pressing concern with this system is wind. The RAP, NAM, and GFS all suggest a very strong isallobaric gradient on the northwest side of the low as it moves from northwest to southeast across the state. When surface pressure rises and low level cold air advection are this strong in tandem, it is not uncommon to see surface wind gusts exceed the mean boundary layer wind, which appears to be around 30-40 kts. The timing of the strongest winds looks to be from late tonight in the northwest to early Saturday afternoon in south central North Dakota. An expansion of the Wind Advisory may need to be considered with future forecast updates. UPDATE Issued at 510 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Quick update to increase thunderstorm chances in northwest North Dakota through the evening. Pea size hail and a 43 mph wind gust were recently reported at the Williston Airport. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Strong Alberta Clipper sweeping through western and central North Dakota and resultant winter weather advisory north central remains the main highlight in the short term period. In addition, strong winds forecast in far southwest North Dakota Saturday morning has prompted a wind advisory issuance here. Mid and high clouds persist over north central North Dakota including the Turtle Mountains, and across the far west. Scattered cirrus clouds dominated elsewhere. Warm front now into western North Dakota will continue to shift east, reaching Renville County southeast to Stutsman County this evening. Cold front will slice across northeast Montana and southern Saskatchewan this evening, then shift southeast overnight. Rain showers will initially form west and north through the evening, then spread into central late tonight. Colder 850mb temperatures (-6C to -8C) will move into the north after midnight, resulting in a changeover to snow. BUFKIT RAP13 sounding profiles show snow from 10z through 18z Saturday. A band of heavy snow per NAM/GFS synoptic scale forcing/low level frontogenesis/mid lapse rates are still aligned very well across the Turtle Mountains tonight into Saturday morning. The winter weather advisory highlighting 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts (3 to 5 inches in the Turtle Mountains) remains on track for timing and location. Strongest winds will reside in far southwest North Dakota Saturday morning, and as mentioned above, will issue a wind advisory for this. Elsewhere, winds will be gusty/northerly winds 20-35 mph Saturday, with rain changing to snow from north to south, and highs only in the 40s will make for a raw, miserable day. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Another Alberta clipper is slated to slide across western North Dakota Saturday night. Here comes yet another opportunity for light snowfall accumulations. The NAM/GFS/EC all show various amounts, but agree that some snowfall will occur. Will follow the NBM with snow amounts of up to 1 inch across the southwest Saturday night. It will remain cold Sunday through Tuesday with much below normal temperatures. Overnight lows will be in the 20s each morning Sunday through Tuesday, with daytime highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Conditions look dry Sunday and Monday, with the EC indicating precipitation chances returning Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS keeps precipitation chances confined to the southern counties Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather resumes Thursday and Friday as a zonal flow develops and temperatures rebound into the 50s Thursday, and lower to mid 60s Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A strong low pressure system will move across the region tonight through Saturday. Multiple aviation hazards are expected this forecast period, including strong northerly winds, MVFR ceilings, and rain mixing with or changing to snow late tonight into Saturday. While a thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out at KXWA this evening, lightning has become much more isolated and is currently not close to nor expected to track close enough to KXWA to warrant a TS mention in the TAF. Precipitation will increase from northwest to southeast tonight, lasting through Saturday morning before decreasing from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Expect the precipitation to be accompanied by ceilings lowering to MVFR and possibly near IFR levels. Temperatures may become cold enough tonight through Saturday morning for rain to mix with or perhaps even change completely over to snow. Better chances for snow exist the farther north and east you go, with KMOT being the terminal with the best chance of seeing a period of prevailing SN. MVFR and even IFR visibility is possible in any falling snow. Western and central ND will see winds turning to the northwest and eventually north tonight through Saturday. Expect a period of sustained winds around 20-30 kts, gusting to 30-40 kts at each terminal between late tonight and Saturday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ018-033-034-040>045. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ003>005-012-013. Wind Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ001-009-017-031-032. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...KS AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1014 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Looking over new model data coming in, and not enough certainity to make any changes to forecast for the late night/Sat AM period. HRRR/RAP are just a bit farther west and HRRR warmer at the surface for GFK, but was mentioned at shift brief earlier that HRRR seemed a tad too warm. 00z NAM would indicate about the same as prev thinking. As mentioned prior think immediate Red River location of Grand Forks may end up a bit less than fcst snow wise due to elevation. UPDATE Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 High and mid clouds increasing this evening. Preciptation area well upstream yet but latest short term models indicate moving into NW fcst area by 06z. Latest HRRR indicate heaviest snow more in the area from Towner, NE Webster, W Waslh, Nelson, W Grand Forks, Steele and Traill counties. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 We are still expecting a late season banded snow event to develop over eastern North Dakota into northwest and west-central Minnesota Saturday with accumulating snow expected, possibly locally significant. Impacts associated with this storm include reduced visibility due to heavy snowfall rates and difficult travel due to wet, slushy snow. A strengthening clipper system currently observed on satellite in central AB is expected to move through North Dakota on Saturday bringing a band of snow along with a cold soaking rain. Very strong mesoscale forcing is anticipated given the signal for a deep and intense frontogenetical circulation coupled with strong synoptic forcing. Additionally, conditional instability in the form of low level EPV should feed into the fgen circulation. Also steep mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km, a saturated DGZ, and strongest level of forcing for ascent collocate around 700 - 500 mb above a saturated 0 to -10C column. These expected mesoscale features all lend high confidence in heavy snow rates of 1 inch per hour, perhaps at times higher, within a thin band of snow before mid morning Saturday. The anticipated area of precip before mid morning Saturday resides over the Devils Lake basin, thus heavy snowfall rates may linger here for several hours, bringing the potential for locally significant snowfall amounts, ie greater than 6 inches. Recent guidance has trended a bit later than previously forecast, likely due to an overall slower movement into the area as well as low level dry air ahead of the clipper confining snowfall towards the area of strongest forcing near the H7 low center. The suggested delay pushes snow chances a bit further into daytime hours, and under a strong May sun accumulation will be harder to come by due to compaction/melting. Additionally, hires guidance suggests the Red River Valley warms a bit more than those outside of the Valley after mid morning, a topographic feature that has been seen before during early/late season snow events. Those that will see highest snow amounts will be for locations that receive snow during early morning hours Saturday when temperatures are coolest. This pinpoints the Devils Lake basin with best chance for seeing highest accumulation. Those outside of the Devils Lake basin have a higher chance of seeing rain/snow mix with lesser accumulations expected if any accumulation at all, with this mix likely through the daytime hours, especially within the southern Red River Valley. Gusty winds accompany this clipper, especially on the backside of the low with highest chance for seeing greater than 35 mph gusts in southeast ND. Confidence remains low on specific locations of highest amounts as the predictability horizon of mesoscale features is very short, on the order of hours leading up to the event. With this in mind, don`t be surprised if a Winter Weather Advisory is upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning over a very locally confined area Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 On Sunday, cold northerly winds will exist across the region in the wake of the departing low pressure system. We`ll have northerly flow aloft across the region as well. The upper flow will transition to westerly by Tuesdy night as a ridge pushes east. However, an upper level wave is expected to move east across the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. With cold air aloft still in the area, snow will be a possiblity again, but most of the precipitation should be rain. Temperatures will generally warm through the week with highs in the 40s Sun/Mon and in the 60s by Friday. No impacts are expected during this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 707 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Mid and high clouds increase this evening, leading to MVFR and IFR cigs/vsbys for a time late tonight/SAT AM esp in DVL,GFK for snow and in Fargo for a mix. Vsbys within the heavy snow band likely in between these 3 TAF sites will be under 1 mile. BJI and TVF on the outer edge of this system and less impacted. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM CDT Saturday for NDZ006-007-014>016-024-026>030-054. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...CJ LONG TERM...Knutsvig AVIATION...Riddle
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
925 PM MDT Fri May 8 2020 .DISCUSSION... Evening Update: Refreshed the POP grids to reflect the passage of the frontal band of rain that is passing through this evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains with cooling temperatures and another round of showers expected tomorrow afternoon and evening. Roxy Afternoon Update: High resolution models such as the HRRR and HREF have been resolving the current convection fairly well this afternoon, so those were leaned on heavily for the update to the precip forecast this afternoon. Other short-term models such as the WRF models and Cons blends have shown enough forecast skill in the near term to be included as well. Rain will continue to spread across the region through the evening hours, and then dry out from west to east by tomorrow morning. While in the coldest areas along the edge of the precipitation some light snow may mix in with the rain, there shouldn`t be any accumulations anywhere in the region, even through the weekend as more isolated to scattered precipitation pushes through the region. Cliff PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will track through the region today with increasing chances for rain showers by the afternoon into tonight. Lingering showers are possible into the weekend, otherwise expect temperatures to trend lower, below normal for this time of year. Along with these colder temperatures, look for frost potential and associated impacts, especially at night with lows around or below freezing. Upper ridging to the west will amplify on Monday, with Northwest flow aloft pushing through NE Montana. This will result in dry weather conditions, though temperatures remaining on the cooler side. While ensemble spread in the 500mb heights is evident at larger time scales toward the middle of next week, the next approaching shortwave is evident with chances for rain showers increasing for that period. Otherwise, do expect a modest and gradual warm up through the week ahead. Will keep forecast in line with consensus blends capturing these ideas for now. && .AVIATION... Expected Flight Category: MVFR-VFR Synopsis: Showers and some thunderstorms will move over regional airfields through tomorrow morning, before western areas clear out some until convection re-fires tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings under the strongest rains and any thunderstorms should dip into MVFR territory. Ceilings in some areas could get close to IFR overnight, but should generally remain in MVFR. Winds: Winds will be variable in speed and direction as rain and storms push through the region overnight, but expect prevailing winds to be west to northwest at 20-30 kts until tomorrow morning and then relax back to 10-20 kts for tomorrow. Cliff && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday For Fort Peck Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a deep upper trough positioned over the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon. 850mb temperatures are running 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal for this time of the year. The cold air aloft combined with the high sun angle and steep low level lapse rates have generated snow showers and flurries over far northern WI and down the northeast WI Lake Michigan shoreline. In addition, temps have struggled to rise above 30 degrees at some locations over the northwoods by midday. As high pressure builds into the area tonight, forecast concerns mainly revolve around temperatures and the freeze warning headlines. Tonight...Like the previous forecaster mentioned, high pressure will be drifting towards the area by late tonight. Winds will likely diminish across most of the area except for far northeast WI possibly, where BL winds will remain in the 15 to 20 kts range for most of the night. That may be just enough to keep winds from decoupling and reduce the risk of a heavy frost deposit. Still though, with temps remaining in the 30s for most of the area so far today, it shouldn`t be too hard to far temps to fall below freezing, and guidance has remained steady in terms of low temps tonight. So no changes to the Freeze Warning. The record lows for Saturday morning are quite cold so new record lows seem unlikely. Clouds should dissipate with loss of heating and modifying temps aloft, but additional clouds north of Lake Superior will likely brush northern parts of the forecast area. Lows ranging from the low 20s over the northwoods to near 30 by the lakeshore. Saturday...The morning will start out sunny, which will allow for temps to quickly warm above freezing by 8 to 9 am. Then clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next system, which will move into the northern Mississippi Valley in the afternoon. A pocket of warm air ahead of the low will lead to a rebound of temps into the mid 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 A clipper system tracking just south of the region will bring a lake season snowfall to the region Saturday night and Sunday. The low appears to have shifted a bit north with this recent run. bringing the snow a bit further north than previous forecasts. Despite the time of year the system is moving through during a favorable time, during the overnight hours. Most of the snowfall accumulation is expected to be on grassy surfaces with most areas getting a light dusting of snowfall accumulation. There is the potential for 1 to 2 inches of snowfall across portions of central and north-central Wisconsin where the best forcing, moisture, and cold temperatures will coincide. The snow will change over to rain throughout Sunday morning as the sun rises and the low pulls away from the region with the rain expected to taper off by Sunday afternoon. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather early next week as temperatures remain below normal for this time of year. Frost/freeze conditions are expected across most of the area during this period. Temperatures will warm to near normal levels by the middle to late part of next week, as the threat for frost/freeze headlines dissipates. Several low pressure systems could bring rain during this period as the pattern becomes a bit more active. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1042 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 VFR conditions are anticipated through much of this TAF period, the exception will be across central Wisconsin late tomorrow evening. The next area of low pressure will approach northeast Wisconsin Saturday night and linger into the day Sunday. This will bring a chance of rain and snow showers to all of the TAF sites, along with reduced visibilities and lower ceilings. Some minor snow accumulation is possible. Central Wisconsin will likely see an increase in mid clouds toward the end of this TAF period as the system approaches from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the week. Relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent are expected again Saturday afternoon, with winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Relative humidity values will rise into the 35 to 50 percent range on Sunday with the expected clouds and precip, then should fall back into the 20 to 30 percent range by early next week. Green up will slowly works its way northward through the period, as will the greatest fire weather danger. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ020-022-030-031- 035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Kurimski AVIATION.......Cooley FIRE WEATHER...MPC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will cross the area tonight. Arctic high pressure will build into the region over the weekend. A cold front with limited moisture is forecast to cross the area Sunday night or early Monday followed by high pressure for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... As of 10 PM Fri...Ocnl -ra or sprinkles continue ahead of strong cold front moving our way. The front currently stretched from sw to ne from about Asheville to Lynchburg to Dover, DE. Strong pres rises occurring behind the front, with HRRR indicating about 9mb/6hrly rises. Strong surge of wind gusts expected behind it late tonight, and for those areas that did not receive wind adv with prefrontal swrly winds, will have another chance at it as winds turn sharply nwrly and gust upwards of 45-50 mph possible for the OBX and Downeast. Ocnl shra will continue through the overnight, ending prior to sunrise and skies rapidly clearing. Prev discussion...As of 7 PM Fri...Light sprinkles attm with first batch of rain moving through, but this is mostly falling as virga. Better chance of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch later this evening and overnight as more precip moves into a more saturated column. No changes with likely pops overnight. Prev discussion... As of 4 PM Fri...Gusty SW winds and WAA continue ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest upper level support for lift will pass north of the area tonight, but mid level PVA will prompt enough dynamic influence to overcome the fairly dry boundary layer, bringing scattered to widespread showers ahead of and along the front this evening and overnight. Do not expect much QPF, generally less than a quarter inch, as the system will not have a lot of moisture associated with PW values only briefly peaking around one inch. Wind shift NW behind the front early Saturday morning and remain gusty. Wind Advisories in effect for the southern OBX through the evening and overnight, and for the northern OBX for just the post- frontal NW flow Sat AM. Temps will drop into the mid 40s inland to around 50 coast by daybreak Sat. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 4 PM Fri...Cool high pressure builds in quickly from the west through the day, with gusty NW winds in the morning becoming moderate in the afternoon. Deep layer subsidence will bring sunny skies and dry conditions. Strong CAA will limit highs to the upper 50s to lower 60s, which is around 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Fri...Temperatures will be much below normal this weekend with record low temperatures expected Saturday night as a deep mid level trough persists across the Eastern US for the next week or more. Saturday Night and Sunday...High pressure with dry conditions will build over Eastern NC over the weekend producing much below normal temperatures. Sat night should see record cold with a bonafide radiational cooling night as high pressure settles directly over our CWA. Many inland locations dropping into the low to mid 30s with patchy frost likely. Highs Sunday again will only be in the low to mid 60s. Monday Through Thursday...Below normal temps will continue early next week. A cold front with limited moisture is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or Monday morning. Could see isolated showers with the front but the models are fairly pessimistic with moisture with very dry mid and upper levels. Highs Mon warm into the low to mid 70s in the westerly downslope flow behind the cold front. Then cooler and dry weather expected for Tue and Wed as high pressure builds over the area. Lows Mon and Tue nights inland will be be in the chilly 40s with highs Tue in the 60s. Moderating temperatures into the 70s are expected Wed as weak return flow associated with the high moving off of the coast develops. Highs on Thursday get cranked up into the upper 70s as the southerly return flow increases. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/... As of 7 PM Friday...Gusty SW winds this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A few hours of MVFR is possible along and immediately behind the cold front, which will cross the area late tonight, and scattered to widespread showers could bringing brief periods of additional flight restrictions. Mostly low end VFR skies with the system tonight. Winds become gusty NW behind the cold front early Saturday morning, with sunny skies returning during the day as high pres begins to build in. Winds become light to calm by sunset tomorrow night. Long Term /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... As of 410 AM Friday...VFR expected through Sunday as high pressure builds back over the area. A cold front with limited moisture is forecast to cross the area late Sunday night or early Mon morning but with only limited potential to produce rain, not expecting any impacts to ceilings or visibilities at this time. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 4 PM Fri...SWrly gales are developing a bit slower than expected this afternoon, but gusty winds will continue to increase through the evening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will cross the area late. Winds shift NW behind the front and remain strong early Sat AM before gradually diminishing through the late morning and afternoon as high pressure quickly builds in from the west. Gale Warnings remain in effect for the nearshore waters and the Pamlico Sound, with SCAs elsewhere. Seas peak at 6-10 ft late tonight before gradually diminishing through the day Saturday. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 415 AM Friday...Winds will drop below Gales through Saturday morning and subside to 10-15 kts by Saturday afternoon. Seas are then forecast to subside to 3-5 ft by early Sat evening. Winds will become SW 10-15 kt Sunday ahead of the next cold front shifting W 10-15 kt behind the front late Sunday night into Mon. Seas are forecast to be 2-3 ft both days. Winds shift NW 20-25 kts briefly late Mon night into Tuesday morning as building high pressure from the west creates a tight gradient with a low off the coast of New England. Waves will build briefly to 3-4 ft during this time. Winds will then subside to 8-12 kts by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure becomes more dominant over the area with waves dropping back down to 2-3 feet as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 215 PM Friday...The high astronomical tide cycle associated with the flower moon will continue to bring elevated tidal ranges into the weekend, especially near inlets and along the beaches. With the addition of strong southwest to northwest winds, expect to see areas of minor flooding along the soundside of the Outer Banks north of Buxton (including portions of Roanoke Island) this evening into early Saturday morning. Inundation 1-2 ft of above ground will be possible for low lying areas adjacent to the sound. && .CLIMATE... Record Low temps for 05/10 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 42/1977 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 41/1983 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 37/1986 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 42/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 36/1986 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 42/1980 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205. Wind Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...TL/ML MARINE...CB/ML TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX CLIMATE...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
649 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 354 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020 Well it`s a beautiful November afternoon here in Upper Michigan - just in May. Visible satellite continues to show widespread broken cloud cover as lake-effect clouds continue to move onshore from Lake Superior in NNW flow beneath 850 mb temperatures around -14 C per SPC Mesoanalysis. Coupled with lake surface temps around 37-38 F that`s good enough for a delta T of about 17 C. However, the brighter May sun has allowed the PBL to mix more than it otherwise would in a typical lake-effect setup, keeping cloud bases up around 4000-5000 feet or more. In addition, with the short wave that ushered in this cold air now over Lake Huron, and anticyclonic dCVA behind it contributing to further subsidence, the more robust snow showers we saw this morning have devolved into lighter snow showers with a more speckled appearance on radar. The downward trend will continue through the evening for most of us. As clouds thin somewhat, there will still be some additional warming over the next few hours, but so far temps have underperformed even the already- cold forecast. We`re just now getting to freezing in many places and we`ll probably only manage to tack on another 1-3 degrees, at most. Tonight, a secondary short wave embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft will rotate down from James Bay through northern Ontario and just clip eastern Lake Superior. It`s not as strong as this morning`s wave, and overall after this evening there`s a slight warming trend in mid-level temps, but there will still be enough of a combination of synoptic scale lift and lake-based instability for an additional round of lake-effect snow showers. With the wind backing around to NW as ridging approaches from the west, and again with most of the forcing remaining east of the area, this snow should be confined to areas east of Munising, primarily Luce County. And we`re still not talking big amounts either; liquid equivalent precip should be less than 0.1" unless the big band the HRRR is advertising sets up (it most likely won`t) so additional snow tonight should only be around an inch in these areas. Even without enough moisture and lift for precip, lake-effect clouds will continue to cover the U.P. through most of the night, finally clearing over the west half early tomorrow morning. Cloud cover should keep temps tonight from plummeting too hard although the higher bases still leave room for some radiational cooling. Therefore lows in the 20s are expected, lowest interior west and warmest along the lakeshores and over the east where the cloud cover will be the thickest. Lake-effect snow showers wrap up by late morning tomorrow as 850 mb temps warm from about -10 C in the morning to about -5 C by afternoon. The clouds will be slowest to clear east, but over the west and central it will become a mostly sunny day by early afternoon. The cold air aloft plus sunny skies should cause deep mixing to at least 6000 feet. And while the air aloft isn`t bone dry, it`s dry enough that dew points will probably fall to around 10 or even into the single digits over the west half resulting in RH near or below 20%. That deep mixing will also help highs reach the upper 40s or lower 50s west and south despite the anomalous cold aloft. But east where clouds linger into the afternoon highs will struggle to get much past 40. By the end of the day, cloud cover works back in from the west ahead of the next system, the Saskatchewan Screamer that will be, well, screaming, through Minnesota this time tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020 Models suggest that the high amplitude pattern with a blocking mid/upper level ridge over western North America and troughing over the east will transition to a more zonal pattern. The strong positive height anomalies will shift north of AK as a mid level low develops over north central Canada allowing shortwaves in the developing west or wsw flow to move into the Great Lakes. Well below average temps will moderate closer to normal toward the middle of next week. Saturday night into Sunday, models were in good agreement that a shortwave or compact mid level low will slide through southern MN into Southern WI. A band of snow supported by mid level deformation/fgen may brush locations near the WI border. However, given the very dry low levels and expected sharp moisture/pcpn cutoff on the northern portion of the snow band, the forecast keeps the POPs south of all but southern Menominee County where lower end chance POPs were mentioned. Another batch of cold air will drop into the area behind the low with 850 mb temps again down to around -9C. So with brisk low level northerly flow, max readings will remain in the upper 30s north to the low and mid 40s south. Mon-Tue, the ECMWF and GEM were more aggressive with a clipper shortwave dropping through the area by Mon night. Although this feature could bring some light pcpn, with little moisture available, any amounts would be minimal. However, with 850 mb temps possibly dropping to near -13C, per ECMWF, some lake effect/enhanced snow may be possible over the east. Otherwise, very dry conditions will persist with breezy north winds of 10 to 20 mph and RH values to near 20 percent. However, Highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s should reduce fire weather potential. Wed-Fri, with the more zonal pattern, the models were consistent in bringing a shrtwv toward the Great Lakes. The sfc low passing south of the area with an inverted trough into the area will bring strengthening isentropic lift and moisture advection toward Upper Michigan. Some rain is looking more likely by Thu, even though differences remain with the timing/position of these features. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 649 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020 The winter-like pattern continues with blustery NW winds and lake- effect clouds. Conditions are VFR and are expected to stay that way throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2020 With historically cold air remaining in place aloft, the unstable atmosphere will continue to allow for 25-30 kt winds over the east half of the lake this evening through Saturday afternoon. Did include some gusts right up to around 34 kts, mainly in the next few hours while the coldest air aloft is still around, but these will be very sporadic and not worthy of a Gale Warning. Winds dip below 20 kts on the west half tomorrow evening, but winds increase back to 20- 25 kts Saturday night as a fast-moving low pressure system races across Wisconsin. These stronger N winds persist into Monday but by Tuesday light winds look to return to the region as high pressure begins to nudge in from the west. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJC LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...07 MARINE...RJC
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Clear skies cool temperatures and high pressure are in place over Nebraska, with northwesterly flow aloft in place. A shortwave disturbance is currently centered over western Montana, and is expected to move southeast across the Central Plains. As the high pressure center moves eastward tonight, light winds and strong radiative cooling are expected to produce overnight lows in the mid 30`s to just above freezing. These cool temperatures and weak winds are expected to allow the formation of frost in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, ahead of a shield of mid to upper level clouds moving in from the west overnight. These clouds and and the southerly surface flow overnight are expected to keep central Nebraska`s overnight lows a tad bit higher. The shortwave over Montana is expected to force chances for showers Saturday afternoon into the evening. Surface-based CAPE values from the extended 18z run of the HRRR suggest CAPE values may reach over 500 J/kg, allowing for some embedded thunderstorms to exist with the precipitation. This precipitation may limit the cooling Sunday morning, and with stronger winds expected may limit frost development Sunday morning. Monday will be the best chance for another frosty morning, with cool temperatures once again alongside calm winds. Beyond Monday, the northwesterly flow is expected to progress eastward and will be centered with the Central Plains on Tuesday with precipitation chances returning Wednesday morning. Model solutions from the ECMWF and CMC suggest a leeward cyclogenesis to occur, and may provide our next good chance at showers and storms into Thursday morning. Overall the combination of shortwaves this weekend and going into next, alongside the possible system Wednesday are expected combine to continue the active pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 8 2020 Terminal forecasts are quiet for the next 24 hours. Diminishing surface winds tonight will drop to calm and variable at times. They`ll redevelop out of the south on Saturday. VFR conditions may persist through Saturday. As of this forecast issuance, expecting KOMA and KLNK to develop MVFR cigs after 20Z Saturday evening with the passage of the light rain showers. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ015-033-034- 044-045-051>053-066>068-089>093. IA...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...TSNicolaisen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1008 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020 .UPDATE... Only light showers are expected with the frontal passage overnight, continued the trend of adjusting PoPs and QPF downward a bit. Otherwise, the previous forecast is in good shape. && .PREV DISCUSSION [647 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Tonight and Saturday]... Rain chances looking less impressive with tonight`s front as best moisture/instability never really gets into the area and forcing is weak. Have capped PoPs at 60% over the north/west and in the chance category elsewhere. Thunder mention confined primarily to the Panhandle and even there it looks doubtful. Winds will shift to the north then northeast after midnight tonight as cooler air ushers back in. On Saturday introduced low PoPs to the waters and our southern counties as it looks like there will be enough lift north of the front for at least isolated showers. Otherwise a cooler and much drier day is in store. No changes to the SCA at this time. Winds will be generally below advisory levels through the evening then pick up behind the front after midnight. Highest confidence we`ll reach criteria remains over the western waters and the offshore zones. Next shift can expand eastward through the Big Bend if necessary. .SHORT TERM [Saturday night and Sunday]... Cold front will stall across central Florida Saturday night. However, as a shortwave crosses the Gulf and a wave of low pressure develops in the southern Gulf, enough moisture will be pushed back north across the front to support showers across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Exactly where the northern edge of the precip sets up is uncertain, as there will likely be a rather sharp cut-off. However, best rain chances will generally be south and east of a line from Tallahassee to Valdosta. Even for areas that do get rain, amounts will be minimal and generally less than one-quarter inch. After lows in the 50s across the area Sunday morning, highs will generally reach the upper 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the SE Big Bend where the rain and thicker cloud cover will reside.l .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... Deep upper trough along the eastern seaboard will deamplify by early in the week, replaced by largely zonal flow along the Gulf Coast. Expect mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures through Tuesday. By Wednesday, upper ridging will begin to build over the area, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s. Onshore flow during this period may eventually increase low-level moisture enough for a few isolated showers, but chances remain low at this time, with minimal upper support for lift. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] Rain chances continue to look less and less impressive as dry low levels and a lack of instability have really taken a bite out of the approaching rain shield. Do expect some increase in coverage as the cold front approaches, especially further south and west, and have carried a tempo group at ECP and DHN and PROB30s at TLH and VLD. Latest CAMS including the new HRRR suggest at least scattered showers may linger south of I-10 into Saturday but not worth a mention in the terminals. Still expect a band of MVFR ceilings along and behind the front for a few hours before drier air wins out. Winds will shift to the northeast and become a little gusty after midnight. .MARINE... Southwesterly winds will continue to increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with a Small Craft Advisory in place. Offshore advisory-level winds will follow the frontal passage tonight into Saturday morning, before diminishing and remaining below headline criteria into early next week. .FIRE WEATHER... Winds will shift from southwesterly to northeasterly overnight as a cold front moves through the area. Much lower RH values can be expected Saturday afternoon as drier air moves in. Much of our Georgia and Alabaman areas will be close to or below critical humidity levels but winds will be low enough that Red Flag conditions are not expected. Slightly higher RH values for Sunday then drier conditions again on Monday. Only light rainfall is expected through the period. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall amounts through Sunday will generally be less than one- quarter inch, with no flooding concerns expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 56 77 55 78 53 / 40 10 20 30 0 Panama City 57 76 58 78 58 / 40 10 20 20 0 Dothan 50 72 50 78 51 / 40 10 10 0 0 Albany 51 73 50 78 52 / 30 10 10 0 0 Valdosta 55 75 54 76 54 / 30 10 20 20 0 Cross City 62 77 58 77 57 / 20 20 30 30 10 Apalachicola 60 75 60 75 58 / 30 20 30 30 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...Harrigan NEAR TERM...Johnstone SHORT TERM...Camp LONG TERM...Camp AVIATION...Johnstone MARINE...Camp FIRE WEATHER...Johnstone HYDROLOGY...Camp