Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/07/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
It`s been a sunny, seasonable day across central, south central, and
southeast Kansas today with a surface ridge overhead and light
northwest flow.
Overnight into early tomorrow morning, however, there will be a
significant increase in moisture transport in central Kansas that
will gradually shift southeast throughout the day tomorrow. The
result will be numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area,
first roughly along and west of I-135 through sunrise and then
spreading eastward throughout the day. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding chances for morning strong to severe storms
as the signal remains weaker than it was for the storms that
occurred two days ago. An analysis of model data reveals that
there is strong agreement for wind shear of both strong magnitude
and having a significant directional component. There is also good
agreement for steep lapse rates and moisture advection along a
north-south oriented axis of central Kansas. Models diverge,
however, on the amount of available elevated instability that will
be present across this area. For example, the NAM and RAP are
much more bullish, with 850-300mb MUCAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg in central and south central KS during the morning and early
afternoon, which could be enough to initiate a few over-
performing strong to severe storms capable of large hail. However,
the GFS favors less instability, with MUCAPE only as high as
600-700 J/kg or so and presenting a much more uncertain scenario
for a stronger or marginally severe storm or two. Regardless, the
message remains the same that a few strong to marginally severe
storms cannot be ruled out with hail as the main threat in the
stronger storms.
Regarding rainfall amounts, QPF was increased a bit along southern
Kansas near the Kansas/Oklahoma border given that models have
trended a little further west with higher QPF than previous
forecasts. This is still subject to refinements over the next day or
so as it is tough to pin down exactly where the most efficient
rainfall rates will occur in convection. However, in collaboration
with the WPC, felt confident enough to at least trend the QPF in an
upward direction given that precipitable water values may approach
or exceed the 90% moving average (with values of 1.00 to 1.50 inches
across southern KS) in conjunction with warm, moist advection being
most favored across southern portions of the forecast area.
Rain chances should finally come to an end from west to east
throughout the evening tomorrow and exit southeast Kansas by
daybreak on Friday morning. Though the forecast will remain dry for
Friday, temperatures will be cooler only reaching into the low to
mid 60s area-wide. Another concern on Friday (especially in the
morning) will be the potential for strong, gusty winds behind the
departing shortwave. Continued to trend wind speeds up towards
the upper-end of guidance but kept them below advisory levels for
now. However, it is possible that they still may not be quite high
enough for a period of time early Friday morning (particularly in
south central Kansas) and this will continue to be monitored. The
good news is that as the wave continues to depart throughout the
afternoon, winds should gradually decrease later in the day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
The weekend will remain dry as the next shortwave to move across the
central CONUS will likely affect areas north and east of the area.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday and Sunday
though are still expected to fall short of climatological normals
only reaching into the upper 60s to near 70. Of note, it will be
quite cool on Friday night-Saturday morning, with lows dropping
into the upper 30s. This will be the coolest night throughout the
period, however, as temperatures recover a bit on Saturday.
As the previous discussion mentioned, the next chance for meaningful
precipitation will arrive during the Monday-Tuesday time frame but
severe weather potential looks low at this time. There is
potential for Monday to be much cooler, with highs struggling to
reach the mid-upper 50s in some areas and falling well short of
normal. Though remaining below normal, a gradual warmup will
commence during the first half of the work week and temperatures
may recover to near- normal values by Wednesday and Thursday.&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
VFR conditions will prevail across the region with northerly winds
switching the northeast around sunset, then veering to a southeast
direction by Thursday morning. Meanwhile an upper level wave will
move into the region and spark off scattered elevated
showers/storms over central/south central Kansas Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
VFR tentatively forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Impressive mid level warm air advection will lead to showers
later tonight, with some thunderstorms probable. Uncertain
coverage and timing of the thunderstorms precludes mentioning at
this point, but updates for that are likely over the next 6-18
hours. Biggest unknown is how low ceilings will go with widespread
precipitation late tonight through tomorrow morning. Expect a
slow downward trend, but not ready to go MVFR yet, given all the
precipitation is initially based at 700MB, then slowly working
down during the day. More pessimistic models have extensive MVFR
during the day, with scattered IFR ceilings, especially over
central KS. -Howerton
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 50 66 48 63 / 10 60 60 0
Hutchinson 47 64 46 62 / 20 60 40 0
Newton 47 64 46 61 / 10 60 50 0
ElDorado 47 65 47 62 / 10 70 60 0
Winfield-KWLD 50 68 50 64 / 10 50 60 0
Russell 47 68 42 63 / 40 40 10 0
Great Bend 47 68 43 63 / 40 40 10 0
Salina 45 63 45 62 / 20 70 30 0
McPherson 46 62 45 61 / 20 70 40 0
Coffeyville 46 67 51 63 / 10 60 80 0
Chanute 45 64 50 61 / 10 70 80 0
Iola 45 64 49 61 / 10 70 70 0
Parsons-KPPF 46 65 51 62 / 10 60 80 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020
.DISCUSSION...
See 00z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds will be elevated with some gusts out of the southeast to
south overnight. Low ceilings are expected to develop early
tomorrow morning for HOB and MAF and are expected to clear out by
16z Thursday. Winds will strengthen out of the southwest to west
tomorrow afternoon for CNM, HOB, INK, and PEQ. Winds will be more
southerly for MAF and FST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Wed May 6 2020/
DISCUSSION...
Surface flow this afternoon has veered around to the southeast,
with temperatures on track to top out close to normal in the
middle 80s for most, with 90s confined to portions of the Pecos
and Rio Grande Valleys. Increased low-level moisture will yield
mild overnight lows tonight, in the 60s for most locations.
Thursday will see an abrupt return to well above normal
temperatures as a dryline sharpens up across the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. To the west of the dryline, 850mb temperatures
will warm to +30-32C, with downslope warming and deep mixing
yielding highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s. To the east,
moisture will be higher, and highs will be somewhat cooler, though
still above normal in the lower to middle 90s for most. The
position of the dryline will dictate just how warm locations can
get tomorrow, especially across the central Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau, though for now have trended closer to the warmer
side of guidance. There is also the opportunity for some diurnally
driven convection along the dryline beginning mid to late
afternoon, with additional storms possible across the higher
terrain of the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Some storms
could become strong, with winds and hail, along with lightning
strikes, the main concerns. In addition to the well above normal
temperatures and potential for storms, Thursday afternoon will
also see the return of critical fire weather conditions across
western portions of the area. Please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for details.
Late Thursday evening, storms will gradually weaken and move off
to the east, ahead of the next cold front progged to move
through the region late Thursday night into Friday morning. A
shortwave dropping out of the Northern Plains will become absorbed
into a broad trough over the eastern CONUS Thursday night,
sending a cold front south across the Plains and into West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico. The front will be similar to Tuesday
morning`s, accompanied by strong northerly to northeasterly winds,
with high winds expected through Guadalupe Pass, where a High Wind
Watch is now in effect. Advisory level winds look likely across
lower elevations, and will defer to later shifts to fine tune
winds and potential headlines as we get closer. Winds will remain
elevated into Friday afternoon, with much cooler temperatures in
the 70s expected for most of the area.
Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate through the weekend, with
below normal temperatures continuing Saturday, and a rebound to
near normal temperatures Sunday and Monday. The dryline looks to
return early next week, with a passing shortwave Monday yielding
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of the
area, though by Tuesday into midweek, the dryline will shift
eastward, likely keeping storms focused just to the east of the
area. Temperatures look to gradually climb above normal by
Wednesday, with widespread highs in the 90s once again.
FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions are favored across SE NM/GDP Mtns Thur
PM where fuel dryness as seen in ERC-G estimated to be in the 80-
90th percentile. This with critical fire wx (RFTI 6) will be
sufficient for warning. Low-level thermal ridge will be oriented
from EC NM-SE NM-Upper Trans Pecos and within the warmest part of
the low-level thermal ridge min RH could fall to around 5 percent
in parts of Eddy/Lea/Chaves Co.. Wind is not overly impressive
5KFT winds are expected to be around 25 mph, but surface MSLP
gradient will not be very tight, so generally 15-25 mph type winds
in the plains, stronger in the favored areas of the GDP Mtns.
Farther s into the Davis Mtns we have considered issuing a
warning, but composite fuel moisture profile will take a small
hit from good recovery Thur. Still ERC-G will be near 90th
percentile, but winds in the mixed layer are about 5KTs less than
areas to the n. We will have time to look at it again tonight with
new fuels maps before making a final decision. Also of concern is
the potential for dry lightning in Brewster, Presidio, Pecos, and
w Terrell Co. where high resolution HRRR kicks off a few dry
storms, even hints at it closer to Davis Mtns. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds are a concern in and near the mtns.
Any new starts that extend into the Thur evening and Fri AM could
be strongly impacted by a wind shift assocd with a cold front.
NW-N initially the then NE, wind shift in SE NM between 9 PM-
midnight and Trans Pecos 1 AM-6 AM Fri AM, north to far south,
respectively.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 64 96 60 73 / 0 10 10 0
Carlsbad 61 102 60 76 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 66 97 68 80 / 0 10 10 10
Fort Stockton 66 100 62 74 / 0 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 61 93 53 67 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 59 98 55 72 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 50 95 53 71 / 0 10 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 64 99 60 74 / 0 10 10 0
Odessa 64 99 60 74 / 0 10 0 0
Wink 64 104 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Chavez
Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Thursday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
&&
$$
99/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
620 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 456 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2020
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show mid-level ridging
extending from CO n thru Saskatchewan and the NW Territories.
Downstream troffing features a shortwave over the Lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley and a mid-level low over southern Hudson Bay. Btwn
these 2 main features in the trof, a subtle shortwave is shifting e
across northern Ontario on the s side of the mid-level low. Weak
cold front associated with this feature has dropped into southern
Upper MI. This front is passing uneventfully due to a dry air mass
over the area. In fact, only very high based CU clouds have
developed. Skies are sunny closer to Lake Superior. With temps
pushing into the 60s in the interior and dwpts plummeting into the
teens and lwr 20s, RHs are down in the 12-25pct range. Winds have
become gusty to 15-20mph with few spots 20-25mph. Thus, wildfire
potential is currently elevated. While cooling/increasing RH is and
will continue spreading farther inland from Lake Superior, elevated
wildfire potential will continue for a few more hrs. Special weather
statement has been issued for all but the Keweenaw to highlight the
late aftn fire wx concerns.
Tonight...mid-level low over southern Hudson Bay will deepen some as
it drifts s into far northern Ontario. Shortwave swinging around the
low will push another cold front s across the fcst area, exiting by
12z Thu. Fcst soundings indicate an increase in moisture into the
mid-levels from the forcing, but vary on whether low-level moisture
will increase as well. Given the deep mixed layer that develops at
this time of year, even evident today n of Lake Superior, will
probably be difficult to moisten the low levels sufficiently from
the period of forcing to result in measurable pcpn. Thus, have
favored the drier NAM/CMC/RAP/HRRR for tonight as opposed the the
GFS and WRF ARW/NMM. Only included a mention of chc flurries for the
Keweenaw and e half overnight.
Will be much cooler on Thu in the wake of the cold front under 850mb
temps of roughly -3 to -10C from w to e across the fcst area.
Blustery nnw wind across the e half of Lake Superior into the e half
of Upper MI will add to the chill. In that area, expect temps no
higher than the mid 30s near the lake to only the lower 40s toward
Lake MI. To the w, temps may push 50F s central w of KESC to KIMT.
As the mid-level low over far northern Ontario continues to drop s,
reaching a position just n or ne of Lake Superior Thu evening, cold
air aloft and deepening moisture profile should result in quite a
bit of shsn activity n of Lake Superior on Thu. Some of these -shsn
may begin to push out across Lake Superior later in the aftn.
Probably won`t be until evening that these arrive. Fcst soundings
show quite a bit of dry air around during the day, so not expecting
any flurries/sprinkles to develop across the fcst area with daytime
heating on Thu. Although winds won`t be as strong over the w as over
the e, it will be drier w with RH dropping toward 20pct. Temps will
be cool in the 40s, but the dry air with winds gusting to 20-25mph
will still be a concern for fire wx.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2020
The return to cold air continues Thursday night with 850 mb temps
dropping from about -9 C in the evening to as cool as -14 C by
Friday morning. To put things another way, this air mass is so cold
that the dynamic tropopause/2 PVU surface is modeled to get all the
way down to around 600 mb. To further beat a dead horse, the NAEFS
and ECMWF ensemble means both show temps at 500, 700, and 850 mb all
day Friday that are colder than anything in their respective climate
databases. Although apparently not as far off as it was in previous
days, the NBM continues to be biased warm for Friday`s highs and
does not capture the magnitude of this anomalous cold, so had to
take highs down several degrees over the NBM initialization. Highs
are expected to only reach the low to mid 30s, except perhaps the
upper 30s over the far south-central. This means that new record
cold high temps are forecast at several sites; see the table at the
bottom of the discussion for more details. Cold air of this
magnitude plus sufficient moisture also means lake-effect snow
showers - yes, even in May. The CAMs all resolve at least scattered
snow showers over the NNW wind lake-effect belts of the east half
Thursday night into Friday morning. Hard to believe it but it does
in fact look like temps will be cold enough aloft for decent
dendritic growth and cold enough at the surface (especially in the
morning) that SLRs should end up being 15:1 or higher... definitely
unusual for May. While this doesn`t look like any sort of robust
snowfall, it should be enough for around half an inch to an inch
from roughly Marquette to Munising to Newberry. It will also be
partly to mostly cloudy with plenty of lake moisture around and
quite breezy on Friday with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts
as high as 25 mph, both higher along the immediate Lake Superior
lakeshore.
There`s only modest relief from the cold after Friday. Large-scale
upper-level troughing remains entrenched over the eastern U.S.
through at least the beginning of next week keeping temps well below
normal for this time of year. Had to take highs down several degrees
below NBM initialization again each day Saturday through Monday,
with the most drastic changes on Monday when the next polar short
wave is expected to drop through Ontario and across the Upper Great
Lakes. This shot of cold air doesn`t look like it will be as strong
as Friday`s. The deterministic GFS brings 850 mb temps down to
around -12 C, but that`s still very chilly for May. And it`s still
cold enough for the NAEFS mean to be once per decade caliber cold
(for this time of year) and the ECMWF ensemble mean to still show
temps over at least part of the region colder than anything in the
climate database. Right now am forecasting highs on Monday to range
from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south, which is still about 10
degrees cooler than the NBM started with.
As for precip chances... outside of the lake-effect snow showers
Thursday night and Friday morning, the long-term looks mostly dry.
The one possible exception would be when a Saskatchewan Screamer
(think Alberta Clipper except it crosses into the U.S. from
Saskatchewan!) races through the Northern Plains and across
Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and night. Right now the deterministic
models and ensemble systems all keep the precip south of the
Wisconsin state line. Therefore so does the NBM, and so does this
forecast. Not expecting it to jump north but if it did it could
bring a stripe of rain/snow mix or perhaps even accumulating snow to
the area. But again, odds right now significantly favor that stripe
of precip missing the CWA to the south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2020
VFR conditions will prevail thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
Stratocu will enter the picture late tonight/Thu morning at
KCMX/KSAW, but cloud bases should be in 4000 to 8000ft range. Gusty
winds to 20-25kt are also expected at KCMX/KSAW on Thu.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 456 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2020
A cold front will drop s across Lake Superior tonight. Behind it,
expect n winds to increase to 20-30kt over central and eastern Lake
Superior. These stronger winds will continue across the e half of
Lake Superior on Thu. There may even be a few gale force gusts to
35kt over the far eastern part of the lake in the aftn. Over the w,
winds will fall back to mostly under 20kt Thu. Winds will increase
Thu night as colder air moves over the lake. Expect some gale force
gusts across the central portion of the lake. While 20-30kt nnw
winds will continue Fri across the e half of the lake, winds will
fall back to mostly under 20kt over the w. Conditions on Sat should
be similar to Fri. Periods of winds of at least 15-25kt will linger
into Sun and Mon, particularly over the e half of Lake Superior.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 416 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2020
Friday`s Forecast High / Record Cold High (Year Record Set)
Iron Mountain 36 / 39 (1960)
Ironwood 35 / 39 (1960, 2010)
Houghton 32 / 32 (1966)
Newberry 33 / 31 (1966)
Munising 31 / 34 (1923)
Marquette City 32 / 33 (1923)
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Rolfson
CLIMATE...RJC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
858 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020
Updated the forecast to expire the Red Flag Warning for the San
Luis Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW...
Currently
A very nice day across the region. Temperatures were in the 60s to
lower 70s across the plains with 60s in the valleys/40s and 50s
mtns. Except for some wispy scattered cirrus clouds, skies were
sunny.
On the large scale, a band of high clouds were noted just to our NW.
These clouds were in advance of a very well defined and sharp short
wave that was over the Pacific Northwest.
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Synoptically forced upslope flow will increase this afternoon and
evening in advance of the strong short wave moving towards the
region. Anticipate southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
will develop over the plains. These winds will slacken this evening
over the I-25 corridor region but will remain rather brisk across
the far eastern plains well into the evening hours. Temps will fall
into the 50s and eventually 40s towards morning. Besides some high
clouds increasing over the region it will remain dry.
Later tonight, surface cyclogenesis will spin up over the southeast
plains. This will allow a surface trough to develop with winds
becoming northerly/N-NWly along the I-25 corridor with steady SE
winds over the far eastern plains.
Tomorrow...
Shortly after sunrise, Cool front associated with the mid level
trough will move south of the Palmer Divide and dive southward
through the rest of the morning hours. Winds over the plains east of
the I-25 corridor will become N-NEly while over the mtns, sfc winds
will increase and become gusty from the NW. Along the I-25 a rather
complex sfc wind convergence pattern will set up, with this boundary
dividing the strong NNW flow over the higher terrain from the
northeasterly flow over the plains. Guidance shows this boundary
gradually shifting east with time as the day progresses.
Even though relatively cooler air will be moving into the area,
dwpts will be quite low so we are likely going to see critical fire
weather conditions over the I-25 corridor tomorrow. Critical fire
weather conditions are near 100% certain given the dry air which is
over the higher terrain. Likewise...Red Flag warnings are now in
effect for a good part of the area tomorrow.
Except for the winds, tomorrow is going to be a rather nice day,
with max temps reaching into the 70s to around 80 across the plains.
Given the very low dewpts and gusty winds tomorrow...the fire
weather danger over the area tomorrow is going to be a lot higher
than the past couple of weeks as the winds will be quite brisk and
the RH values will be in the single digits (Note that the
experimental HRRR has dewpts in the negative single digits
downsloping over the mtns/plains interface). DO NOT BURN tomorrow
and dont do anything outside that could cause a spark!
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020
Thursday night and Friday...The cold front passage on Thu will usher
in much cooler air for the forecast area through Fri, with lows Thu
night forecast to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s for the high
valleys, and in the 30s for the plains. Under northwest flow aloft,
aftn highs Fri are expected to be in the 60s for the high valleys,
and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Though conditions will remain
dry, there is the outside chance for some cloud development and a
shower or two over the mts in the aftn.
Saturday...Northwest flow aloft continues, with another upper
disturbance crossing MT and the Dakotas early Sat. This will push
another weak cold front south into CO, but the increased air flow at
the surface may actually serve to boost temps a few degrees. There
is still the possibility of isolated convection over the mts in the
aftn, but overall is should be a beautiful day. Look for highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s for most locations.
Sunday through Tuesday...A ridge of high pressure over the desert sw
and the Great Basin will break down as it gradually edges eastward
across the Four Corners and CO. This will allow more moisture to
slip into the region, and models indicate that there will be a
definite increase in shower and storm potential across the entire
state through the first part of the work week. Plan on high temps
each day in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations, with the
mercury starting to warm by Tue.
Wednesday...Long range models are pointing to an increase in
southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners by midweek, with pcpn
chances diminishing. Look for temps by Wed to start climbing back up
into the 80s for the plains, and the 70s for the high valleys.
Moore
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 6 2020
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.
For tomorrow, strong northwest winds are likely at the TAF sites,
especially from late morning into the afternoon hours.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ221-222-
224>230.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH