Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/05/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
911 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Latest surface map shows a general shift in the wind from southeast to northwest from near Crosby to Tioga through Dickinson and Bowman. This marks the location of a weak cold front which will slowly edge east tonight before stalling over the northern James River Valley Sunday. Minot radar shows scattered snowshowers over western Ward County, edging closer to the city of Minot. This area of precipitation will continue to shift east and dwindle through the rest of the evening. RAP13 low level/925mb winds/relative humidity forecast indicate a long enough duration of northwesterly winds over north central North Dakota tonight to advect stratus and fog from Saskatchewan across the border. Thus have added areas of fog north with stratus pushing across the border 06z-19z Sunday. UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively tiled shortwave trough stretching from south central Saskatchewan into northwestern North Dakota. Large scale ascent focused primarily north and into Canada. Weak cold frontal system in western North Dakota will steadily move east overnight. Regional radar shows a narrow line of developing showers along this front, and have extended the previous PoPs farther south (per RAP and HRRR) and mentioned isolated to scattered coverage. SPC mesoanalysis shows surface based cape around 100 J/kg in the west with mid level lapse rates of 8.5 C/Km. RAP BUFKIT sounding for Watford city suggests that a low top thundershower is possible in the next hour or two. Although a lightning strike or two is possible, will not add this to the grids as coverage and duration will be very limited. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 For tonight, we expect low pressure and an associated warm frontal boundary to move east from Montana through North Dakota. This will be the focus for small chances of rain and snow showers across south central North Dakota ahead of the warm front, and across north central North Dakota, along the trough axis of the low. Overall we expect light to trace amounts of precipitation tonight. On Sunday, a redeveloping lee side low pressure in Montana will quickly return a southerly flow of air into the region. Another chance of rain is expected along and north of the frontal boundary across south central North Dakota Sunday afternoon. Again, only light precipitation is expected. With some more clouds tonight than last night, lows will be in the teens and lower 20s, with highs Sunday in the 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 For the extended period we will see a warmup into the 40s and 50s Monday and 50s to lower 60s Tuesday as an h500 flow ridges across the central and northern plains east of a western h500 trough off the west coast. The milder air and a very modest amount of CAPE will support some widely scattered thunderstorms across the south central and east Monday afternoon, Monday night into Tuesday morning. With dewpoints only in the lower to middle 40s, weak, possibly elevated storms can be expected. The mildest day of the week should be Tuesday, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Cooler air will then be seen for Wednesday and Thursday, moderating a bit for Friday and Saturday. Northwest flow aloft should bring in some shortwave energy and low chances for rain and snow Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 537 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A weak cold front will shift from the west into central North Dakota tonight before stalling over the northern James River Valley late tonight through Sunday. Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers expected this evening from KXWA to KMOT. VFR cigs are expected for all terminals with the exception of KMOT, where MVFR cigs are anticipated through 08z followed by IFR cigs 08z-19z Sunday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...WAA LONG TERM...WAA AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
910 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 908 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Our inherited forecast for tonight looks to be in good shape, so have made only some minor changes to the winds for the rest of the night. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Bumped up temperatures for this afternoon for an update, particularly along the North Platte River Valley. Torrington, Scottsbluff, and areas near Sidney had reach the forecast high, or were very close to it by 19Z while working on the newest forecast patch. Diurnal cumulus has begun to pop up across southeast WY early this afternoon. An occasional wind gust due to virga may occur across the forecast region because of the evaporating light rain sprinkles/showers that may develop. HRRR and Nam Nest Hi-resolution guidance hints at weak shower activity this afternoon through approximately sunset. The remainder of the forecast region looks on par with current afternoon max temps. Despite cloud cover staying minimal overnight, lows shouldn`t dip too far below freezing except for the higher terrain mountain zones. South to southwest winds will continue overnight to assist with warmer air getting infiltrated into the region. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Quiet weather expected heading into early next week with the warming trend continuing. High temperatures will reach the 60s for much of the CWA Sunday through Tuesday with portions of the Nebraska Panhandle reaching the 70s early next week. A weak impulse passes through the area Sunday afternoon and evening which could result in isolated rain showers along and east of the Laramie Range. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as models, including NAMNEST, depict ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE in place over the northern Nebraska Panhandle through 03z Monday. Heading into Monday, additional impulses spinning off the upper low digging down the Pacific Coast will bring chances of precipitation to areas west of the CWA along with a 700 mb jet of 40-45 kts over Carbon County. Areas near Arlington/Elk Mountain could see gusty winds during the day. As these shortwaves begin to pass more over the CWA early Tuesday, winds turn westerly and increase over the Laramie Range where strong subsidence develops by 12z Tuesday. Cloud cover over western portions of the CWA could enhance the lee trough and therefore increase ARL-BRX MSLP gradients. High winds are not expected at this time, however strong gusts to 45 MPH are possible Tuesday morning and afternoon near Bordeaux. Additionally, dry downslope winds could further lower relative humidities over the adjacent plains where forecast parameters are already approaching red flag criteria. As of right now, the GFS and Euro still lack any agreement with the eastward progression of the upper level low over the Western US once interaction begins with the subtropical jet over Baja California. The GFS is still being more progressive and also dives a trough located over the Northern High Plains much farther south than the Euro suppressing most of the system`s energy well south and east of the CWA. The 00z Euro has made significant changes with the low track compared to recent runs keeping the low well south of the Four Corners area. Precipitation chances with this system late next week are on the decline, but we could still be in store for a brief period of below average temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 526 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 VFR category expected through tonight into Sunday. Expect winds to become a bit breezy by late morning Sunday, but otherwise no concerns to aviation. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Recent precipitation over the area over the last 48 hours will allow relative humidity values to stay elevation near and above 20% Wind gusts are anticipated to stay below 25mph this afternoon and overnight, with occasional higher gusts in the wind prone areas along I-80. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...RUBIN SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...JG FIRE WEATHER...BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
926 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Mid level cloud cover continues to push through the FA, with some clear spots behind it over central and western North Dakota. The regional radar loop shows a few echoes around Minot, but not sure how much of this is reaching the ground either. No changes are planned with this forecast update. UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Quite a bit of mid level cloud cover is shifting across the FA right now. There are even some weak echoes on radar. This is associated with a weak 850mb jet, broad warm advection, and even some upper jet support. So mostly expecting some virga tonight, doubt if anything will actually reach the ground. There may also be some partly cloudy breaks by late evening and overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Area of mid clouds likely associated with 850-700 mb warm advection is moving slowly northeast. Echoes remain moving toward Jamestown. Obs have not shown any precipitation reaching the ground, but radar returns would indicate at least something would. More likely brief light snow. Will continue a low mention of -sn into areas around Valley City late aftn and then weaken it. Otherwise next short wave moving ENE thru S Saskatchewan and this will track mostly north of the border tonight. Will maintain a very low pop for -sn along the border per prev fcst. HRRR ensembles maintain a small chance. Otherwise southeast to turn a bit more south-southeast tonight as warmer air does move in. Therefore not a large temp drop tonight. Sunday will see the mid clouds move east, and warm advection continues. But in the thicker snowpack kept highs on the lower side of guidance, in the low 40s. Low 50s more likely far east and southeast. Next short wave will move across the area Sunday night. There has been a consistent signal for 850-700 mb warm advection with this second wave and an area of light rain. Focus is on the central parts of the fcst area. Rain amounts do look light...mostly under 0.10 inch on average. Temps do look to stay warmer than 32F during the precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Milder on Monday but still cool in the northern fcst area with 40s. 50s to around 60 far south closer to a surface to 850 mb warm front that will develop near the South Dakota border. Low pressure will develop along the front associated with a 500 mb short wave Monday evening. 850 mb warm advection and a 30 kt 850 mb jet will focus a warm 925-850 mb layer into far SE ND and WC MN by 06z Tue. MUCAPES via 12z GFS soundings show 500-800 j/kg. It would appear that showers and a few t-storms will develop Monday evening nearer just north of the warm front near I-94 and then the 850 mb jet will turn more southwest and the instability by later Monday night focus more over our far eastern fcst area and eastward from there. So potential remains for an area of showers, esp central and south, with risk of a few t-storms. Outside chance of a few stronger t-storm provided steep lapse rates above 850 mb. Good news is this precipitation will be progressive and overall increasing in area as it moves more east of the immediate Red River thru MN. Average rainfall amounts of 0.15 to 0.35 seem reasonable, but with pwats over 0.75 inch some isold heavier totals likely...but thinking they will be localized. Still something to monitor for any hydro impacts. Colder air will move down mid to late week. 850 mb temps crash back down to -10 to -13C Wed night thru Friday. Some light precipitation possible in the colder air, mostly flurries or sprinkles. Temps should be below normal the second half of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Not seeing any issues for the TAFs until very late in the period, when ceilings begin to lower again. This will probably appear more on the 06z set of TAFs. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 The rivers were generally steady or slowly falling on both the North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries. A secondary rise is expected next week when the recent snowfall melts. The forecast points on the main stem Red River were generally steady or slowly falling from Halstad southward. The forecast points north of Halstad continue to rise. A secondary rise is expected next week for the southern forecast points when the recent snowfall melts. Harwood and the West Fargo diversion could go to major flood stage next week. A secondary peak may be possible beyond the 7 day period for the northern forecast points. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. River point flood warnings continue across portions of the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for detailed information on specific locations. && $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...Riddle AVIATION...Godon HYDROLOGY...JK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
733 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be observed across central and southeast Illinois tonight. A few light showers will be possible along and south of an Effingham to Paris line this evening, followed by dry conditions for the remainder of the night. Low temperatures will mainly be in middle to upper 30s...with a few lower 40s south of I-70. && .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 00z/7pm IR satellite imagery continues to show a low overcast along/east of a Bloomington to Taylorville line...with mostly clear skies further west across the remainder of the KILX CWA. N/NE boundary layer winds will keep the clouds essentially in place over the next few hours before clearing taking place across northeast Illinois works its way into the area from the northeast later this evening. Based on satellite trends and latest HRRR forecast, the low clouds will gradually clear from northeast to southwest overnight: however, an area of mid/high clouds currently over northern Missouri and southern Iowa will track eastward at the same time. End result will be partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the board overnight. Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s northwest of the Illinois River where skies will remain mostly clear this the lower 40s south of I-70 where clouds will be slowest to depart. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 A cold front had pushed se into nw Ohio and into central KY/TN. 1024 mb high pressure over MN was ridging southward into IA and MO and helping clear the low clouds along and nw of the IL river at mid afternoon. Cool temps ranged from the low to mid 40s over the heart of central IL se of the IL river (39 at Pittsfield and Mount Sterling), to 51 at Galesburg and 50 in Lacon where sunny skies prevailed. NNW to NW winds 7-15 mph giving wind chills in the low to mid 30s over heart of CWA. A weak disturbance moving into the mid MS river valley is bringing scattered light rain showers to southeast parts of IL/MO and into central IN. These light showers should gradually diminish in southeast IL during this evening. Though a few models show very isolated light showers over southern 6 counties possible overnight into Sunday, but have elected to keep CWA dry overnight and Sunday as better forcing further south of area. Low stratus clouds decrease further se over central IL during this evening, while some mid level clouds around 10k ft track eastward over area later this evening and overnight, and decrease from west during early to mid Sunday morning. Lows tonight in the mid 30s over central IL from I-72 north and lower 40s in southeast IL from I-70 south where low clouds linger longer. Skies become mostly sunny over northern CWA Sunday and become partly sunny in southeast IL by Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday in the upper 50s in central IL and lower 60s in southeast IL. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Clouds to increase from the west/sw during Sunday night ahead of an approaching warm front to our sw. Lows Sunday night in the lower to mid 40s, and mildest in sw CWA. Upper level ridging into IL by Monday morning while a warm front lifts up across central IL. Most models showing some qpf over northern/nw half of CWA on Monday where have a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night across CWA and have convection becoming more isolated to scattered on Tuesday in central and eastern IL. Milder highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday. Lows Monday night in the mid to upper 50s. Warm highs in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday. Increased instability and wind shear on Tuesday could lead to some stronger thunderstorms. SPC does not have any outlook areas yet for Tue but bears watching for Tue afternoon/evening. A weak front passes thru area Tue night and keeps chances of convection going. Another warm day Wed with highs around 70 northern CWA and mid 70s in southeast IL. A stronger cold front passes se thru central IL Wed night bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, with models trending higher with pops and qpf over area then. Much cooler on Thu in wake of cold frontal passage with highs in the lower 50s central IL and mid 50s southeast IL. 12Z models agree with a large/strong mid/upper level trof digging into the Midwest and eastern States late next week, bringing below normal temps Thu thru Sat. Have slight chance of light showers overnight Thu night and Fri with this trof. Cool highs Fri in the upper 40s/lower 50s and low to mid 50s next Sat. Lows in the low to mid 30s Thu and Fri night in central IL and as growing season expands northward, part of area may eventually need frost/freeze headlines later next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 MVFR ceilings persist along/east of a KBMI to KSPI line early this evening. While N/NW boundary layer winds were gradually pushing the low clouds away from the central Illinois terminals during the afternoon, winds veering to N/NE are now causing the clearing line to stall and even retrograde slightly to the west. With plenty of clouds noted on upstream satellite imagery as far northeast as KJOT, it appears MVFR will hold firm at KBMI/KDEC/KCMI through the evening. HRRR depicts low clouds spilling back southwestward into KSPI by around 04z, and this seems reasonable based on satellite trends. Clearing has taken place over Lake Michigan into the Chicago metro area and the HRRR shows this drier air working into central Illinois from the northeast later this evening into the overnight. Have therefore removed MVFR ceilings at KBMI by 05z...then further southwest to KSPI by 11z. Despite the loss of low clouds, a large area of mid- level clouds at around 10,000ft will spill across central Illinois from the west tonight into Sunday morning. Once these clouds skirt off to the east, skies will become partly to mostly clear across the board after after the 15-19z Sun time frame. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Barnes
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the overnight hours. Adjusted a few temps for the ridge to valley split. Most places will not get quite as cold as the previous morning as cloud cover slowly working into the area will hinder this. Only a few minor tweaks were made to slow up pops as the dry air in place will keep precip from arriving a bit later. UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 Updated the forecast to input the latest observations and trend them into the overnight period. Some clouds rolling in later tonight will hinder ridge to valley temperatures differences a bit but we will still be looking at some significant splits. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 431 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 The 20z analysis shows a weakening ridge axis extending from the Tennessee Valley northward over Southwestern Ontario province to near James Bay. Meanwhile, a dampening 500mb trough is shifting eastward toward the Mississippi Valley further suppressing the upper-level ridge. As a result, flow will trend nearly quasi-zonal tonight but gradual height rises return tomorrow as weak ridging rebuilds northward from the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the high pressure ridge that has been our friend over the past couple of days, has nearly disappeared while a weakening cold front is now draped across central KY. An inverted surface trough is developing across the western CWA, intersecting the front near the Ohio River. Models are in decent agreement that the the front will become nearly stationary tonight while pieces of weak vorticity ride through the flow aloft. The GFS and NAM both depict a weak surface circulation forming along the front late tonight before pushing through the CWA during the daylight hours Sunday. The front and any weak surface circulation exit to the east Sunday evening as weak surface high pressure edges south from the Great Lakes Sunday night. In terms of sensible weather, clouds will continue to increase this evening, which should keep temperatures a good 4 to 8 degrees warmer than last night, generally ranging from the mid 40s in eastern valleys to low 50s over the west and thermal ridges. The dew points will also higher tonight, which could allow for some patchy fog formation near lakes and larger rivers. A few light showers are possible after midnight, particularly west of I-75 and north of I-64, closer to the meandering cold front. The frontal boundary, and any weak surface low-type circulation will push through tomorrow, keeping plenty of clouds around along with the potential for a few showers. The GFS builds up 150-300 J/kg of MLCAPE while NAM and HRRR suggest at least twice that amount. Given the weak ridge building to our west over the Mississippi Valley, the lack of significant forcing and the relative dry low-levels, most convection should not become strong enough for thunder. Convective shower chances will be highest over the northern and eastern counties closer to marginally better forcing. Temps should also be 2 or 3 degrees cooler than today due to the cloud cover and slightly cooler air mass. High pressure edging in from the north should put an end to any lingering shower activity Sunday night. However, lingering low- level moisture will keep plenty of clouds around through the night and some fog development is possible where showers occur. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 258 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 The models remain in general agreement with an amplifying long wave pattern to control across the CONUS next week. Split-flow will be in place, with a deeper upper level low to move south, riding the West Coast through early Wednesday, before turning landward across the Baja of California region. The models differ with the speed and influence of this southern stream system for the latter half of the extended, as the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the energy held back, while the GFS is much more progressive. Meanwhile, zonal flow will initially reside across most locations east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, before the northern stream lends strong influence. A vigorous short wave trough will dig across southern Canada and cutoff as it dips just north of the Saint Lawrence River Valley. By early next weekend, colder cyclonic flow will be in place across much of the eastern CONUS. Did not deviate much from the blended guidance this go around, as confidence is not any higher for the latter half of the period. A developing warm front to our west will lift north of the Ohio River Monday into Monday night, with rain chances increasing across the area, although given the generally more modest mid and upper level support, PoPs have trended a bit lower through this time frame. Rain chances ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday, as better moisture advects into the area, along with the eventual approach and passage of a surface cold front. Another cold front will pass through on Thursday, bringing an uptick in rain chances. High pressure will then gradually build in across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Friday into Saturday, with generally drier weather expected. Temperatures will average well above normal through the middle of next week, with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Readings will then cool off to below normal by Friday and Saturday, with highs retreating to the 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with the exception of a few wisps of fog in SME. This may result in a brief period of MVFR conditions. Expect mid to upper level cloud cover moving in through the night. Winds will be light and variable through the period. A weak disturbance moving through will allow for a few showers to develop but they will mainly be isolated. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
632 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .DISCUSSION... See 00z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Low ceilings are expected to remain over MAF and redevelop and move over HOB and INK this evening/tonight. VFR conditions are expected by 18z Sunday for all terminals. Winds will generally be out of the east to south with winds increasing around 20z Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020/ DISCUSSION... Area radars show convection that developed overnight and this morning exiting the upper Colorado Rvr Valley on a shortwave moving into central Texas, having dropped just under an inch of rainfall in isolated parts of the Permian Basin. Going into tonight, the HRRR brings another shortwave into the Big Bend area, bringing convection across the river late this afternoon and into tonight. Sfc flow will continue veering to the east this afternoon, and then to return flow around 00Z Sun or so. Once this transpires, a warm front will move north overnight, resulting in patchy fog developing across the lowlands. Otherwise, this afternoon is a reminder that spring is not solidly established across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/expected highs in the NE zones over 25F below normal. Fortunately, w/the resumption of return flow overnight, temperatures will make a modest rebound to just below normal Sun afternoon. The warm front will continue pushing north during the day, w/isolated t- storms possible along/east of this feature. Meanwhile, a closed system off the OR/CA coast will continue digging south, increasing SW flow aloft over the region. Leeside troughing on the Front Range will induce westerly downslope winds Mon afternoon, resulting in temperatures climbing to above-normal and sharpening up a dryline, along and east of which will be a window for convection into Monday night. Monday may be the best chance for rain this forecast, before west winds scour moisture/rain chances east Tue. Models bring a 70kt mid-level jet around the base of the trough and bring it thru West Texas, developing deep-lyr shear of 65- 70kts over the Big Bend/lwr Trans Pecos Mon afternoon/evening. If mid-lvl lapse rates steepen up a bit, Mon afternoon/evening may be a candidate for severe wx, and will need to be monitored. Temps soar Tue/Wed, w/Wed being our warmest day thru next week. At around 12Z Wed, the west coast trough begins to move onshore near the CA/Baja border, while another trough moves thru Canada just north of the CONUS, and drops a strong cold front into the region Thu. This is much stronger than 24 hrs ago, as reflected in latest MOS numbers. Once again, long-range models differ in how fast they bring the west coast trough inland, w/the GFS bringing it to ern NM by 18Z Thu, while the Canadian/ECMWF lag in AZ. Height falls ahead of this system will result in a chance of convection over the east Wed evening, but instability quickly diminishes as the front moves in, w/-SHRA transitioning to rain Thu night-Fri night. Temps bottom out Fri afternoon, but attempt a recovery Sat, w/isolated convection possible ern zones Sat afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 46 75 58 80 / 10 10 20 20 Carlsbad 45 80 55 80 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 53 74 60 83 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Stockton 51 79 59 81 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 46 70 52 69 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 43 76 54 78 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 47 75 50 75 / 0 10 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 47 76 58 81 / 0 10 20 10 Odessa 47 77 58 81 / 0 10 20 10 Wink 47 80 57 81 / 0 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
631 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated mid/upper level troughing from Northwest Territories and northern Alberta into northwest Ontario. A shortwave trough and cold front that supported pcpn over the east this morning has moved east of the area leaving lingering clouds east of P53-ESC. Although high pressure building into the area has brought clearing skies, sunshine in the cool airmass has only boosted temps into the low and mid 30s north to around 40 south. Tonight, High pressure settling over the area with clear skies, light winds and PWAT values to around 0.10 inch will result in very favorable radiational cooling. Expect inland min temps near the low end of guidance with readings from around 10 in the typical cold spots to around 20 closer to the Great Lakes. Sunday, weak WAA along with abundant sunshine will push temps inot the upper 40s north and east to the mid 50s southwest given 850 mb temps to -1C and mixing through 4k-6k ft. Dewpoints should also fall off to around 10F with RH values to around 20 percent. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 356 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 Models suggest a positive height anomaly and associated ridge across the N Pacific this morning will slowly weaken and shift E into the beginning of next week. As a trough forms across the West Coast in response to this ridge, it digs south towards the desert SW and will become a cutoff feature by Tuesday night as a split-flow pattern develops across the CONUS. The northern stream will dominate the Great Lakes region through the mid-week, but models suggest these two features will congeal towards the end of week with widespread troughing and negative height anomalies expected across much of the CONUS by next weekend. This idea is depicted similarly in both the deterministic and ensemble medium range models. Above normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week with ridging building in on Monday into Wednesday morning, before models show a shortwave passing through on Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation chances and a cooldown into the weekend. On Sunday night into Monday, high pressure will be in play across the Great Lakes region with dry, but cloudy weather expected through early Monday morning. Upstream, a shortwave embedded in the northern split-flow stream passes through the Rockies and into the Dakotas by Monday evening. At the same time, a ridge is building into the Upper Midwest with associated WAA and isentropic ascent. Models suggest a rather tight gradient in the isentropes, but vary slightly in associated wind magnitudes at the respective levels. Given the Pacific origin, PWAT values are not anything to write home about, with models suggesting 0.5 to 0.75 inches across the UP. The best forcing remains off into WI, but there still remains a chance of rain across the UP Monday morning into Monday night. The best chances, however, look to be west and along the WI state line with the chance of some mixed precipitation right away in the morning and again at night. The next chance of precip comes Tuesday into Tuesday night as a shortwave trough ejects along the northern portion of the flow. An area of low pressure develops and lifts from the Dakotas over Upper Michigan. Southerly flow ahead of this system will bring an increase of theta-e advection as NAM and GFS suggest some CAPE moving into the region. NAM keeps most of this CAPE to the south through WI, but the GFS does bring a few 100 J/kg into the UP along the WI border, so I have included some thunder chances into the forecast. Otherwise, expect widespread rain showers across the CWA on Tuesday, tapering off from west to east in the evening. With PWATs nearing 0.75 inches, models are suggesting the potential for up to a 0.5 inch of rain across the CWA. Models show some differences with the GFS remaining fairly consistent with the majority of the precip just to the north over Lake Superior and another batch off the south downstate. The GEM has remained fairly consistent just to the south of the GFS across the central UP, with similar amounts. Will need to wait another 24 hours to get a better sense of where things really line up so PoPs and QPF are fairly broad-brushed. As the cutoff feature across the SW moves on shore and over the desert SW, another trough approaches the UP Wednesday afternoon/evening. There is not much return flow between the systems, but models suggest some -SHRA out in front over the associated cold front. Behind this wave, more NW flow increases and 850mb temperatures fall to near -12C. With sfc temps well above freezing, there`s a chance to see some lake-effect rain showers on Friday, but otherwise nothing major on the horizon and temperatures fall mid 30s to 40 on Friday with 40s returning Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 631 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 VFR conditions will continue thru the forecast period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 359 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020 Winds to 25 knots in the wake of a cold front will diminish from w to e late this aftn into tonight as high pres approaches from the west and settles over the area. Expect winds under 15kt across Lake Superior by late tonight, continuing into Sun as high pres lingers. Winds should remain light into Mon before easterly winds increase Mon night into Tue as a low pres trough approaches. Gusts up to 20- 25kt will be possible. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
855 PM PDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Light to locally moderate showers will continue overnight as a cold front gradually moves south through the region. Widespread rain is forecast for Sunday as a stronger system drops down the coast. Locally heavy rain, possible thunderstorms, and gusty winds can be expected with the Sunday system. Rain will turn to showers Sunday night into Monday as an upper low moves south offshore. Showers may linger across the Central Coast into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday, as the upper low slowly exits the region. A warming and drying trend is forecast for the second half of the week. && .DISCUSSION...As of 8:55 PM PDT Saturday...A weak cold frontal boundary has been gradually tracking from north to south through our forecast area today, producing mostly light rain, with moderate intensity rain showers at times. The frontal boundary was slow to move through Marin County earlier today and consequently rain totals were highest there (more than 2 inches on Mount Tamalpais and 1.20 inches in Kentfield). Several other North Bay locations picked up between a half inch and an inch of rain today. South and east of the Golden Gate, rain totals were generally a half inch or less, except more than an inch near Ben Lomond in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Radar shows that the frontal boundary is currently nearly stationary across the central SF Bay Area, with the most widespread shower activity over San Mateo, Contra Costa, and Alameda Counties as well as northern Santa Cruz and northern Santa Clara Counties. According to the 00Z NAM and latest HRRR, the frontal boundary will gradually shift south to the Monterey Bay Area by midnight and then remain there for the remainder of the night. Meanwhile, satellite shows the stronger upstream system quickly approaching from the northwest. This second system is still on track to bring widspread rain to our entire forecast area on Sunday. A period of heavy rain is likely on Sunday just ahead of a strong cold front, which will pass through the North Bay during the morning, through the remainder of the SF Bay Area early to mid afternoon, and then through the Monterey Bay Area from late afternoon into early evening. The Storm Prediction Center places the best chance for thunderstorm development tomorrow across the Central Valley, but he 00Z NAM forecasts sufficient instability along the frontal boundary for isolated thunderstorm development in our area. Therefore, slight thunderstorm chances were added to Sunday`s forecast in a late afternoon forecast update. Additional rainfall through late Sunday is expected to range from 0.50-1.50" in most areas, with locally lower amounts in rain- shadowed valleys such as the Santa Clara Valley. Up to 2-3 inches of additional rainfall is possible in the coastal ranges. The latest HRRR focuses the heaviest rain in the Santa Lucia Mountains above Big Sur, with accumulations of up to 7 inches by Sunday evening. Most other models forecast less than half that in the Santa Lucias. Gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of the incoming front on Sunday. Strongest winds are expected along the coast where local gusts up to 40 mph are possible. The latest local WRF model continues to focus the strongest winds on coastal Monterey County from Pebble Beach south through Carmel and along the Big Sur Coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect for coastal Monterey County from 5 AM to 5 PM Sunday. The WRF model has recently trended lighter on winds, but will maintain the Wind Advisory for now as subsequent models may reverse course. Winds are forecast to diminish quickly behind the cold front by late Sunday. Rain will change to showers on Sunday night and showers will continue through Monday as an upper low moves slowly south offshore. Snow levels are forecast to quickly drop behind the cold front on Sunday night, down to 3000 feet or even lower in the North Bay by Monday morning. However, most precipitation will end by the time the coldest airmass arrives and so snow accumulation in the hills above 3000 feet should be light. Both the NAM and GFS are moving the upper low off to our south more quickly than previous model runs. If this faster movement verifies, then showers will be confined to only the far southern portion of our area on Tuesday, with dry weather returning to all areas by Wednesday. The 12Z ECMWF forecasts a slower southward movement and thus continued shower potential across our southern areas through Wednesday. But the overall model trend is for a quicker return to dry weather next week. The upshot is that the northern portion of our area will likely start to dry out as early as Tuesday, with all areas possibly returning to dry weather by Wednesday, or Thursday at the latest. Dry weather is then expected to prevail for the remainder of next week and into next weekend as an upper ridge develops off the West Coast. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for the first half of the week, but then climb back to near seasonal averages during the second half. && of 5:20 PM PDT Saturday...The first of two systems is moving through the Bay Area this afternoon. This will bring light rain and mostly MVFR cigs through early evening. A short break from the rain in the Bay Area tonight with cigs rising. Southerly winds will start to increase rapidly after 09Z ahead of the second system. Could see gusts as high as 35 kt by Sunday morning as well as rain and reduced vsbys. Destabilizing atmosphere will bring a possibility of thunderstorms after 18Z. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will prevail with bases around 1500 ft. Bases could rise to 2500 ft tonight in between systems. Southerly winds to 15 kt increasing after 09Z with speeds as high as 20-25 kt gusting to 30-35 kt after 13Z. Winds switch to southwest and decrease after 19Z. Possibility of thunderstorms and lower cigs heading into Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...A weak frontal system will bring a few showers this evening with areas of MVFR cigs. The front will stall out and intensify early Sunday morning as the second system approaches. Rain should pick up after 12-15Z with MVFR cigs prevailing. Southerly winds increasing to 20-25 kt after 15Z especially in the Salinas Valley where gusts over 35 kt is possible. Possibility of thunderstorms after 18Z. && .MARINE...As of 8:30 PM PDT Saturday...A 998 mb low will move into northern California Sunday morning. Southwesterly winds will increase overnight ahead of the low. Winds will switch to westerly Sunday afternoon and decrease Sunday night. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. A prevailing moderate northwesterly swell will persist through much of the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...Wind Advisory...Monterey County Coast starting at 5 am SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 12 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 12 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 12 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 12 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: W Pi MARINE: CW Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
213 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Satellite imagery shows low pressure system beginning to work into Oregon and northern California this afternoon, spreading high clouds across Idaho. Precipitation on target to spread across the region late beginning this evening and overnight. Temperatures have warmed enough to keep snow levels around/above 5000 ft tonight, meaning rain is expected for lower elevations, especially through the southern portions of the Snake Plain and southern highland valleys. Moisture continues to stream into the region Sunday through Monday. Instability increases slightly each day. Thunderstorm activity looks to remain in the southeast corner Sunday afternoon, but the threat widens to most of the region Monday afternoon. Temperatures gradually increase through the short term. DMH .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY... Aside from the chance of a few lingering rain showers Tues afternoon/eve across the southern and eastern highlands, impactful weather should come to a close as the main low pressure system tracks south along the CA coast, and then inland across AZ/NM, too far south to impact SE Idaho. The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all continue to trend toward a common solution of high pressure extending inland across the northern Rockies Wed/Thurs/Fri, with sunshine and a warming trend expected. In fact, temps may surge into the 60s by Thurs/Fri from the Snake Plain south and west, with 50s elsewhere, offering a nice taste of spring! The abnormally wet NBM solution overnight has trended drier toward the deterministic model consensus, so we made very few changes/edits. Overall forecast confidence is moderate to high through Fri. Confidence breaks down a bit by next Sat with the potential for a quick system to move through over the weekend, but little model agreement exists in the details with the GFS advertising a more pronounced trough/closed low, the EC a moist NW flow, and the Canadian somewhere in between the two with some timing differences as well. The warm temps could help support a few thunderstorms with this feature. - KSmith && .AVIATION... Quiet aviation conditions continue this afternoon, with unlimited cigs/vsbys and just some thin, high-level cirrus clouds streaming through. We still expect cigs to thicken and lower this eve into tonight as our next system approaches, but based on the latest guidance we were less aggressive in this trend in the 18z TAF package, with BKN cigs generally expected to hold off until after 03- 07z depending on the terminal. The same trend is noted for precip chances...we do expect a period of rain/snow shower activity to transverse the area overnight, but after reviewing the 12z HREF guidance as well as the RAP and NAM time-heights, confidence in showers directly impacting KPIH/KBYI/KIDA were too low to maintain predominant wx attributes, and we backed off to VCSH as well as refined expected timing. Could see some borderline MVFR cigs Sun morning. For KSUN/KDIJ, maintained the idea of some more organized snow with possible attendant vsby reductions, and refined timing here as well. Some thunderstorms will be possible Sun afternoon, perhaps affecting the Snake Plain terminals and smaller airports to the south. We`ll evaluate need for VCTS in future TAFs. - KSmith && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 As of 20Z Saturday afternoon, broad southwesterly midlevel flow was present across the central and southern Plains. A broad surface ridge extended across the entire Plains. Low level stratus has scattered from northwest to southeast across the forecast area with only extreme east-central KS remaining cloudy. RAP and HRRR forecast soundings suggest mixing heights should near 825-850mb by late afternoon, yielding surface temperatures near 50. Transitioning into tonight, the primary concern is how far the stratus will retreat northward. As the aforementioned surface ridge slides eastward, southeasterly flow will return to the area, allowing the stratus deck across southeast KS/western MO to lift northward. Latest model solutions are in modest agreement with the stratus reaching the turnpike region after 06Z. This should allow for areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike to remain above freezing. As a result, will not be issuing any frost/freeze products at this time. Elsewhere, lows should hover near freezing, but based on partner input, vegetation across this area is less susceptible to a frost/freeze. The surface ridge will push east through the day Sunday allowing WAA to return to the forecast with highs reaching the low 60s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 Transitioning into the extended period, a western trough will dig into the southwest US Sunday night into Monday, yielding a deepening lee trough across the High Plains. WAA will further increase Sunday night as a 35-45 kt LLJ overspreads the region. There may be sufficient moistening and isentropic ascent for a few showers early Monday morning. The warming trend will continue into Monday with afternoon highs reaching the 70s. By Tuesday the aforementioned lee trough will traverse the area by late afternoon and evening. Model solutions prog 850 temps to reach 20 C, which translates to afternoon highs in the 80s. This looks to be a dry frontal passage with limited available moisture. A northern stream trough will shunt a secondary surface cold front through the area Wednesday evening. This will cool temperatures into the 40s by Wednesday night. Otherwise northwesterly midlevel flow looks to dominate the remainder of the week with cooler temperatures in-store. Afternoon highs are progged to remain in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020 VFR to begin at KTOP/KMHK/KFOE with some decent uncertainty on how observed MVFR stratus in southeast Kansas will impact terminals overnight. Similar to yesterday, models are not handling the current observational trends so have opted to side closest to the RAP that lifts the VFR stratus northward between 00Z and 01Z at KTOP/KFOE. There is indication that light winds will help stratus lower to MVFR overnight thru at least 16Z before dissipating. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...22