Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
817 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.Update...
Issued at 817 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2020
Have made several changes to forecast based on latest satellite
and model trends. First, have increased cloud cover for the
overnight hours. The RAP has picked up on the lack of clearing
occurring so have blended satellite observations into the RAP for
the overnight. This overcast should prevent the bottom from
falling out regarding temperatures, but there is enough cold
advection that we should still see temperatures in the upper 20s
through much of the forecast area to just below freezing in our
south. Given this, have expanded the freeze warning southward and
started it basically for now through 14Z tomorrow morning.
&&
.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2020
The majority of today`s forecast focus is on the ongoing rain and
cold air that is sliding in across eastern Kansas and Missouri,
which will require a Freezing Warning for parts of the region
early Saturday morning.
Satellite imagery today shows a large trough over the western half
of the Nation, which has allowed a decent amount of cold air to
plunge out of western Canada across the Plains States over the past
couple of days. A shortwave trough, rounding the base of the
large trough, is noted shifting northeast through the northern
Plains; which helped pull up moisture from the western Gulf. This
has resulted in the overrunning freezing rain and sleet that we
have been dealing with since this morning. As of 3 PM,
temperatures are still just at, or above, freezing in areas from
southeast KC northwest through Chillicothe and Kirksville, and we
are seeing sites northwest of that freezing line warming a degree
or two as the precipitation leaves; which is making the
precipitation type, and impacts, very difficult to pin down.
For the rest of today, we will be watching as the overrunning
precipitation shifts ever farther east, though it likely wont clear
our section of central Missouri till late tonight. Question is what
temperatures will be as the precipitation falls for the rest of the
afternoon and evening. The up side is that the majority of the
precipitation is just outrunning the sub-freezing air this
afternoon, though there is still some light mist/rain lingering
over eastern Kansas into west central and northwest Missouri,
which should be ending in the next couple of hours. Thus, while we
have had some icing, and slick roads, we don`t expect the wintery
impacts from the precipitation to persist through the rest of the
afternoon and evening, thus no further winter weather product is
expected at this time. That said, we might see elevated surfaces
accumulate a little ice till the precipitation moves east.
For tonight...the precipitation axis is moving slowly enough east
that it is likely it wont clear our section of central Missouri till
late tonight, but with the clearing precipitation will come clearing
clouds, and that will allow many areas to drop below freezing
tonight. Below freezing temperatures should not be much of an impact
in areas north of a line from Kansas City to Moberly, beyond
freezing any liquid water still out there. This could result in some
spots of black ice. However, areas south of the KC-Moberly line will
need a Freeze Warning for Saturday morning, as there is a
significant overlap between the vegetation that has started to
green up and the subfreezing temperatures we are expecting
tonight.
For the weekend...expect Saturday to still be on the cold side, with
highs warming from our fridge morning lows to around 50. Sunday the
warm up will kick in as we climb back into the 60s, with 70s for
Monday, and highs near 80 Tuesday. However, we will be on the
watch for some showers Monday and Tuesday as a modest, strung out,
shortwave trough zips through the Plains.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2020
Based on latest satellite imagery and short-term model guidance,
it looks like low MVFR ceilings will linger through the night and
begin to erode tomorrow morning. Winds will diminish through the
night and gradually become northeasterly tomorrow morning and
afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ028-029-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
Update...CDB
Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1054 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A large, ocean low centered southeast of Cape cod will drift
southward away from the area through tonight. High pressure
will briefly nose in from the north overnight and Saturday with
drier weather. An approaching frontal system will bring clouds
and unsettled weather for Sunday followed by high pressure and
dry weather for Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM...Rain has become much more showery and scattered at
this time and have adjusted POPs accordingly. Latest HRRR says
some SHRA will be possible for a few hours after midnight across
srn NH, but overall dry air moving from the NE should keep this
limited. Otherwise, forecast is in good shape.
755 PM...The forecast trend of diminishing rain continues this
evening, and steady rain across srn and central NH and SW ME
will taper to showers late this evening, while showers elsewhere
should come to an end after midnight, as the E flow abv the
boundary slowly diminishes. Winds will also diminish later
tonight, but a few stronger gusts possible this evening,
especially near the coast. In the persistent N-NE sfc flow,
clouds will linger the the night and into Sat morning.
Previously...At 18z a 983 millibar low was centered well
southeast of Cape Cod. Latest surface analysis and GOES visible
loop continues to show the low dropping further south.
Precipitation trend has been slower then current model suite so
have slowed the ending time in many areas. Drier air is trying
to sneak southward into areas near the international border at
moment. Models suggest plenty of moisture trapped beneath the
subsidence inversion overnight behind the departing ocean low
and have kept skies mainly cloudy. Gusty winds will gradually
drop off tonight especially across the northern valleys and over
western New Hampshire. Precipitation should end in all sections
tonight...except for far southern New Hampshire where we could
see sprinkles or a brief shower through early morning. Lows will
range from near 30 along the international border to mid and
upper 30s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday...high pressure will briefly nose in from the north.
We should see a blend of sunshine and clouds as models suggest a
good deal of leftover low level moisture in northeast flow.
Highs should be mainly in the 40s with a few 50 degree readings
over inland areas. Clouds should once again increase tomorrow
night ahead of an approaching impulse and its trailing frontal
system. Lows will be in the lower and mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak front will cross the area Sun night...ushering in high
pressure. The frontal passage itself will be mainly dry...with
any showers most likely in the mtns.
Overall the week ahead looks dominated by anomalous ridging over
Baffin Bay. That blocking will support a series of upper lows
in the vicinity of Newfoundland. Really the ideal set up to
produce slow moving systems...developing off the Northeast
coast...and more or less remaining S of Nrn New England. Despite
the calendar turning towards mid April by the end of the
forecast period...the pattern is actually quite favorable for
some flakes over parts of the forecast area. 03.12z ECMWF EPS
shows probability for accumulating snow over the course of the
week between 20 and 50 percent. Probabilities rise as you move
inland and up in elevation naturally...but most locations across
the area have at least a few members producing snowfall.
Of course it will ultimately come down to individual storm
evolution...but seasonably chilly air will remain nearby...and
the storm track will remain active with a split flow look
across CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...Surface winds gusting up
to 25 kt through dusk before diminishing. MVFR cigs with lcl
IFR through tonight in -SHRA, drizzle and patchy fog. Improving
to VFR throughout during the day Saturday. MVFR cigs may return
Saturday night in light onshore flow with marine stratus.
Long Term...Generally VFR conditions expected Sun...with a cold
front forecast to brush the area Sun night. Forcing along the
front and moisture look to be on the meager side...so isolated
SHRA are possible...but more than local MVFR is unlikely.
Otherwise VFR thru Tue night. A quick moving wave to our S may
bring enough precip N for some MVFR or lower conditions in RA or
SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Saturday Night/...The circulation around the
ocean low centered well southeast of Cape Cod should keep gusts
to Gale over the outer waters for much of tonight. The bays
should see gusts limited to SCA and I have converted Penobscot
bay to an SCA with the afternoon package. We should see SCA`s
open waters for Saturday with lingering SCA for seas possible
Saturday night. Bays should drop below SCA either late tonight
or Saturday morning.
Long Term...Hazardous seas will likely linger through Mon
morning...especially S of Cape Elizabeth. Conditions are
expected to remain just below SCA thresholds thru midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
755 PM...We continue to watch the upper Kennebec basin closely.
The precipitation over the past day combined with snow melt has
been sufficient to push Weston (Skowhegan) towards its 35000
CFS flood stage. A river flood warning has been issued for the
Kennebec at Skowhegan through early Saturday. Elsewhere,it looks
like many of the rivers in central NH and western ME that would
see sharp rises from the upslope E flow, like the Swift in ME,
have crested or are cresting and should recede overnight.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue to trend up until reaching
their monthly peak next week. Even as powerful ocean storm pulls
away we will keep lingering high surf through the weekend.
Forecast surge will continue to slowly fall thru Sat morning so
at this time no coastal flooding is expected. However the
lingering swell will contribute to splashover and erosion. A
coastal flood statement may be necessary tonight and again Sat
morning.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The last GYX upper air observation was March 25 at 12Z.
Unfortunately, a disruption in gas supply has temporarily halted
observations from GYX. It`s unknown when supplies will be restored
and upper air observations resumed.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ151-153.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schwibs
SHORT TERM...Schwibs
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
833 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
Scattered light showers will develop across central Illinois this
evening as a cold front pushes through the area. Once the front
passes, much cooler weather will be on tap for later tonight into
Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s west of
the Illinois River...to the middle to upper 40s near the Indiana
border. Highs on Saturday will only be in the middle 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
01z/8pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from near
Bloomington to just east of Taylorville. Low clouds/showers
associated with the system remain well behind the boundary, with
latest radar imagery indicating widely scattered light showers
across the Illinois River Valley. With limited deep layer moisture
to work with, it appears areal coverage of precip will remain low
tonight. Have adjusted PoPs to slow their eastward spread and
reduce from categorical to likely. Also removed any mention of
thunder as instability is negligible. Overnight lows will range
from the lower 30s west of the Illinois River...to the upper 40s
near the Indiana border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
A strong cold front was approaching the IL river at mid afternoon,
with mild temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 ahead of the
front with large breaks in the mid level cloud cover. Meanwhile
cloudy skies and much colder mid 50s behind the front at Galesburg,
Macomb and Quincy with nw breezes. Radar mosaic shows a band of
showers behind the cold front over eastern IA into central MO with
winter precipitation in central IA.
The cold front near the IL river will push east thru central IL
during this evening and thru southeast IL during overnight. Still
expecting a band of showers to occur behind the front and
continued isolated thunderstorms into early evening from
Springfield sw where MUCAPES are higher, but better chances of
thunder are sw of CWA. Cooled lows tonight with faster cold
frontal passage, with lower 30s nw of the IL river and upper 40s
to near 50 along the Wabash river. The rain showers should end nw
of the IL river late tonight after 09Z/4 am, before temps slip
below freezing at Galesburg where low is near 30F by dawn. So
think freezing rain threat should stay nw of CWA.
Good chance of showers in eastern IL Sat morning, while nw CWA by
IL river valley is dry on Sat. Chances of showers lower Sat
afternoon over eastern/se IL, and down to slight pops in
southeast IL late Sat afternoon into Sat night. Much colder highs
Sat in the low to mid 50s in central IL and upper 50s southeast of
I-70. Partly to mostly sunny skies nw CWA on Sat while staying
cloudier over central and se CWa, especially from I-55 se.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
1024 mb high pressure ridge settles east into WI and MI by dawn
Sunday and ridging into IL. This will bring dry weather to most of
the area Sat night and Sunday, though still have slight chance of
showers in southeast IL Sat night. Lows Sat night of 35-40 in
central IL and lower 40s in southeast IL.
High pressure ridge drifts east across the Great Lakes during
Sunday and provides more sunshine to central IL with mostly sunny
skies, while partly sunny in southeast IL. Lighter winds Sunday
with nearby high pressure ridge, and highs in the upper 50s/lower
60s.
Low pressure ejecting out of CO into western KS by dawn Monday to
bring a warm front northward thru central IL on Mon morning. This
will bring next chance of showers and thunderstorms along with
return of warmer temps in upper 60s and lower 70s. Scattered
convection to continue from Mon thru Tue evening across the area
and diminish from west/nw overnight Tue night as cold front moves
thru. Warm highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tue and a few spots
could reach near 80F in sw CWA.
Much of central IL to be dry on Wed with just slight chance of
showers in southeast IL. Then dry across the area Wed night thru
Thu evening as high pressure ridge builds se into the Midwest.
More of Pacific air mass behind front on Wed, so still above
normal highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s, mildest in southeast
IL. Cooler air arrives Wed night and Thu, with 2nd cold front
passing thru Wed night. Highs Thu of 55-60F. Stayed close to
consensus for models with pops late this week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
A cold front currently along I-55 will continue to push eastward
this evening, clearing KCMI by around 03z. A band of MVFR ceilings
and scattered light showers lagging well behind the front will
spill eastward across the area as well. Satellite timing tools and
latest HRRR forecast suggest MVFR arriving at KPIA by 02z...then
further east to KCMI by 07z-08z. Low ceilings will linger into
Saturday morning before gradually improving from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon. NAM/HRRR both seem too aggressive
with the clearing trend, particularly given satellite imagery
showing extensive clouds well upstream into Minnesota. Will
monitor the speed of the clearing across Minnesota/Iowa this
evening to determine if the faster trend is accurate. For now,
have maintained MVFR at KPIA through 16z and further southeast at
KCMI through 22z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2020
Visible satellite this afternoon shows skies remaining mostly clear
over about the eastern 2/3 of the U.P. but thicker cloud cover
working into the far west. In the clear areas, temps have once again
warmed nicely, into the mid to upper 50s except along the immediate
Lake Michigan lakeshore. Temps made it into the 50s over the west as
well but are beginning to drop now as the long-advertised cold front
moves in. The trend today has been to slow down the front, as
evidenced by MSAS analysis showing the surface trough just now
entering the western U.P. and the wind at IWD coming around to NW
just in the last hour. In addition, steadier rain (per MRMS) remains
well to the west in northwestern WI. The changes this forecast over
the previous were to continue to slow down the front, which is
reflected in slower POPs and a slower eastward advance to the QPF
over the WPC initialization. Relied heavily on the RAP and HRRR to
do this as most CAMs, even initialized at 12z, continue to be too
fast with the front.
In addition, have increased snowfall amounts over the west half for
tonight. The RAP shows impressive 850-700 mb fgen this evening in
the cold air and has consistently been producing up to 0.4" of QPF
as snow with each run today at IWD (same with the HRRR). The delay
in precip helps as well because the changeover to snow will occur
after sunset, limiting ground melting. Still, ground melting will be
a factor as will riming and poor dendritic growth (if any) so SLRs
should be 8:1 or less for whatever snow does fall. But it
nonetheless looks like 1-3" of snow will accumulate. Road cameras in
western WI and adjacent MN showing about an inch of slush on the
grass (even with the afternoon April sun) so it`s definitely not
inconceivable that a coating to a few inches will accumulate over
the west tonight. Given a couple days of temps in the 50s, will
assume that the roads are warm enough to prevent significant
accumulation and therefore will hold off on an SPS until
observations show otherwise. Have also deemphasized any sleet or
freezing rain, although a little bit remains possible as the
changeover occurs.
Precip clears out quickly tomorrow, with POPs down to nothing by 12z
already west of a line from Marquette to Menominee. All precip
should be out of the CWA by 18z. There could be a brief period of
gustier NW winds immediately behind the front when CAA/pressure
rises are maximized, with model soundings supporting 25 mph gusts
briefly around 12z over the central U.P. But the strongest CAA
occuring in the morning rather than in the afternoon will limit how
much wind can mix down. Moisture lingering behind the front in NW
upslope flow will initially keep scattered low clouds around across
the higher elevations of the west through mid-morning, but everyone -
even the east - will see sunshine by the afternoon. Highs should
make it back into the mid 30s (north) to mid 40s (south) with this
sunshine and good mechanical mixing, even with colder air aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 430 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2020
Models suggest that the pattern will transition to a split flow
with the northern stream dominating the Great Lakes. After a
couple of weaker shortwaves eject out of the western CONUS
bringing chances of light pcpn early next week, the progressive
northern stream will eventually become dominant over the northern
CONUS/Upper Great Lakes by mid to late week as a stronger
shortwave from British Columbia slides into northern Ontario. This
will bring pcpn into the region from Tue into Thu. Temps should
remain generally near or above average through Wed with cooler
moving back in for the end of the week.
Saturday night into Sunday, dry conditions are expected as high
pressure builds in from the west. After a cool start with readings
in the lower to mid 20s, mostly sunny skies will help highs rebound
into the upper 40s to mid 50s, except for cooler lower 40s readings
near Lake Michigan and across the tip of the Keweenaw.
Sun night into Mon, a weaker shortwave ejecting out of the
developing western CONUS trough through the northern Plains ridge
into the Upper Great Lakes and its associated response of
waa/isentropic lift at mid and lower levels will bring increasing
chances of light rain/snow late Sun night into Mon.
Tue and Tue night, the northern stream becomes dominant into the
Upper Great Lakes as an initial fairly vigorous shortwave trough
digs se from BC into the northern Great Lakes region. Strong
WAA/isentropic and moisture advection ascent ahead of this
shortwave trough along with steepening mid-level lapse rates of
7-8C and elevated instability, per ECMWF/GFS/GEM Showalter values,
will bring rain showers into UPper Michigan with the potential of
some tsra over mainly the west and south.
Wed-Thu, the arrival of the mid-level trough and associated closed
low will support scattered showers and stronger CAA behind the
frontal system and associated mixing should generate blustery nw
winds late Wed into Thu especially over and near the Great Lakes.
Fri, lingering cool northerly flow should eventually give way to dry
conditions with high pressure building toward the area into the
weekend. However, confidence in the timing is still low given
differences between the GEFS and ECENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 745 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2020
MVFR and IFR conditions expected tonight. Conditions will improve
quickly to VFR from west to east Saturday morning.
A cold front moving into the western U.P has accelerated across Lake
Superior into the Keweenaw about 4 hours ahead of model guidance. A
brief period of IFR conditions at KCMX should give way to MVFR mid
evening before deteriorating as the main area of precipitation moves
through. Did not include FZRA, however, with the surface front
outrunning the mid level front would not rule it out for a few hours
after precipitation onset, before the mid-levels cool.
KIWD has already seen a mix of precipitation and a period of
freezing rain looks likely before changing to all snow. Expect IFR
conditions with a period of VLIFR due to low VIS in heavy snow
overnight.
Precipitation will reach KSAW during the late night hours, starting
as rain and changing to snow. VFR conditions will prevail through
the evening with MVFR and IFR by the early morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 430 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2020
A sharp cold front will move across Lake Superior tonight. In the
wake of the front, nw winds will increase with gusts to 25-30kt.
Winds will then diminish from w to e Sat into Sat night as high pres
arrives. Expect winds under 15kt by late Sat night, continuing into
Sun as high pres lingers. These lighter winds should continue into
Mon before east winds increase on Tue as low pres approaches the
Upper Mississippi Valley.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1041 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020
.AVIATION...
A cold front will continue to slowly move eastward during the TAF
period, becoming stationary across portions of Deep East Texas,
Northwest Louisiana, and South-Central Arkansas. Showers and
possible an isolated thunderstorm will be possible near and
behind frontal boundary. Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR
this evening across the area and to IFR overnight. Not expecting
much of an improvement during the TAF period in the ceilings, with
the stalled boundary over the region. Visibilities may also be
reduced as light drizzle and fog will developed near the boundary.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1020 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/
UPDATE...
A couple of minor changes made during this update. The
aforementioned frontal boundary is currently along a line from
Lufkin Texas to Nashville Arkansas. Temps have cooled a little
faster than originally anticipated behind the front, as areas of
East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma have already dropped into the
upper 40s. Decided to make slight changes to temp grids to account
for this and the advancement of the front. However, still
expecting the frontal boundary to only advance another 50-75 miles
before becoming stationary. Also, decided to lower pops and take
them out of sections of Northeast and Central Louisiana tonight as
it doesn`t look like POPs will be as widespread tonight. Otherwise,
the remainder of the forecast package remains on track. /20/
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/
The latest RAP mid-level analysis indicates the area in zonal
flow with weak vort energy having pushed east of the area. The
main forcing is focused along and ahead of a cold front that
extends from Fayetteville, Arkansas southwestward across McCurtain
County, Oklahoma to Quitman, Texas. Showers and a few stray
thunderstorms are pushing across northeast Texas and southwestern
Arkansas just ahead of the front with a few isolated showers in
its wake. Aside from shower activity, the front is most well-
defined by a wind-shift and 10-15 degrees thermal gradient. More
vigorous convection is developing well southwest of the area in
south-central Texas.
As the front slowly slides southeastward into East Texas and Deep
East Texas this evening, NAM 3km/HRRR support only a few showers
and strong thunderstorms may develop along the front. Showers and
storms will decrease in coverage and intensity overnight as the
cold front stalls. Thus, rain chances are greatest in East Texas
and southwestern Arkansas, decreasing into Louisiana.
On Saturday, the front will be slow to edge southeastward across
the area and will be the focus area for showers and isolated
thunderstorms tomorrow as a few ripples in the mid-level flow
indicative of weak wave energy providing forcing. Showers will
linger overnight on Saturday night, but will decrease in coverage.
For temperatures, lows tonight will range from lower to mid 40s
west of the front in northeast texas and southeastern Arkansas to
in the upper 50s to lower 60s ahead of the front in central
Louisiana and the ArkLaMiss. As the front stalls and straddles
our region, the thermal gradient will be very evident tomorrow
with highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s from Tyler, TX to
Idabel, OK to the lower to mid 70s for locations like
Natchitoches, Jena, and Monroe in Louisiana. The gradient will be
less evident for lows on Saturday night, ranging from the mid 50s
to lower 60s from west to east respectively across the area.
/04-Woodrum/
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/
Nearly flat upper ridge axis to be directly ovhd Sunday, but a
lingering sfc boundary and a continuous supply of Pacific moisture
in swly flow to our w will remain in place. A series of weak
disturbances will ride over the top of the upper ridge anchored over
the Gulf of Mexico, keeping mainly isentropic lift and convection in
play through the first half of the work week. With no change in
airmass, temps will continue to gradually warm through this
timeframe as well.
A cold front associated with a disturbance passing well to our n
will bring some drier air and even some weakly nwly flow aloft. This
will allow our temps to soar into the mid 80s to near 90. Our break
from the rain won`t last, however, as another storm system
approaches from the w late Wednesday into Thursday. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 67 58 75 / 30 50 30 30
MLU 59 72 60 77 / 10 50 30 20
DEQ 48 57 54 72 / 50 40 30 40
TXK 55 64 57 71 / 40 50 30 30
ELD 58 69 57 75 / 20 50 30 30
TYR 43 51 51 72 / 50 40 30 40
GGG 51 60 56 73 / 40 40 30 30
LFK 57 67 58 76 / 50 70 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
20