Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
931 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A large storm system stalled off the New England coast will
keep in cool northerly flow and gusty winds into Friday. Rain
and snow showers return tonight and Friday, before high pressure
builds in and brings dry and seasonable weather on Saturday.
Light rain showers are possible Sunday with a weak front passing
through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast is still on track as of the early evening update.
Clouds will continue a westward advance overnight into areas
west of I-81. The latest NAM and HRRR are now holding off
precipitation till after midnight in the Southern Catskills
northward to Utica kicking the chance of rain and snow showers
to the overnight hours. One addition with the late evening
update was to add a mention of some sleet where temperatures
get close to freezing around sunrise given some modeled
soundings are showing a weak warm nose at about 3,000 feet.
230 pm update...
For the afternoon update upped temperatures a little as the area
is in the mid 40s to around 50 even given the gusty winds and
the partial sunshine.
Not much change this period. A stacked low southeast of Cape
Cod will keep clouds and showers over the area for much of the
time. The center of the storm moves little and has again slowed
down on the exit. Upper level flow is from the northeast while
low levels are from the northwest and north. Deeper moisture
over New England will move west into the area tonight with
clouds then showers late. Low level temperatures in the 30s is
just cold enough for some snow to mix in with the rain. Possibly
even some very spotty sleet and freezing rain late tonight.
Western Steuben County has low temperatures near freezing while
the rest of the cwa is above freezing. Snow again mostly across
the higher terrain with little to no snow accumulation tonight
into Friday morning. During the afternoon only rain as
temperatures rise into the 40s. Lowered the highs across the
Finger Lakes and central southern tier of CNY to the lower 40s.
Showers will extend more into this area while the whole area
will have low thick clouds. Upper level lift will be weak but
terrain will help with orographic lift. This will be similar to
lake effect with showers and drizzle more persistent across the
higher terrain of CNY and less in the Wyoming Valley of NEPA.
Rainfall totals mostly under a tenth of an inch.
The deeper moisture starts to exit Friday night to the southeast
as the upper level low starts to move faster. Maybe a few more
isolated light rain showers in CNY. Low temperatures in the mid
and upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Northerly flow relaxes Saturday as the low off the coast
wobbles east and ridging builds into the area. We have slight
chance pops in the forecast and the NAM is still insisting there
will be some instability and clouds while the EURO is drier.
Will continue with a few sprinkles in the forecast for now,
especially in the morning before the drier air mixes in for the
afternoon.
Weak cold front is forecast to move through SUnday and again the
EURO keeps the area generally dry as the front drives into the
narrow ridge west of the coastal low. NAM is wetter, especially
in the morning over the western zones. Will keep low chance
pops for mainly the morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
205 PM UPDATE...
Little change to the extended at this time. Generally a quiet
period with fast moving systems in the westerly flow. Monday
looks dry then a weakening system zips through Tuesday, followed
by a stronger system early Wednesday. Colder air returns at the
end of the period.
400 AM Update...
Monday should be dry, in a zonal west-northwest flow regime.
Looking for partly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Highs
will be a solid 5 to 10 degrees above average...reaching the
upper 50s to mid-60s. Then, weak waves ride along the northern
periphery of the flat ridge for Monday night and Tuesday. This
could bring a few rain showers at times. Otherwise, temperatures
are forecast to remain rather mild with lows 35-45 and highs in
the upper 50s to mid-60s again. If our area sees more sun and
less showers on Tuesday, there is even the potential for
temperatures to be several degrees warmer. We`ll have to wait
and see how the exact timing of the above mentioned weak
disturbances plays out.
PoPs then increase mid to late next week as a series of better
developed and organized lows moves through the region. Current
indications are that one low moves through on Wednesday...with
another, colder low or trough moving through next
Thursday/Friday. This far out there are still model differences
in the exact timing and other details. For now, went close to
the NBM which gave 30-50 PoPs for rain showers....and even a
rain snow mix very late in the extended period (Thursday night)
. Temperatures looks to stay seasonably mild Wednesday, falling
a few degrees by next Thursday...and then perhaps even below
average by the end of next week as a colder pool of air settles
over the Northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings will build westward into the region this evening.
High confidence is present for ceilings lowering to MVFR between
05-09Z and IFR a few hours after that. Some MVFR visibility
restrictions are possible during the day Friday as well from
patchy fog and spotty light rain and or snow showers. Most
locations may see ceilings lift back up to fuel-alternate for a
time Friday night.
Outlook...
Friday night... MVFR/IFR Ceiling restrictions in persistent
cloud cover and spotty showers.
Saturday through midday Sunday...Generally VFR.
Late Sunday through Sunday night...Possible showers/restrictions.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...restrictions possible in rain showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM/MJM
AVIATION...MWG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1003 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A large and intense ocean storm moves west toward Southern New
England tonight, then pinwheels toward the south on Friday.
This storm will bring strong to possibly damaging winds and
coastal flooding to east coastal Massachusetts, especially Cape
Cod and the Islands. In addition, periods of rain will fall
heavily at times across the area through Friday night. A slow
moving, weak front will bring scattered showers Sunday through
Sunday night. Unsettled conditions will linger at times into mid
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM update...
Bands of rain have overspread all of SNE tonight with heavier
rain elements rotating across SE MA and Cape/Islands. RAP
thermal profile indicates the column may be marginally cold
enough for some snow or rain/snow mix over higher elevations in
northern MA, but it warms the low levels 03-06z so any snow/mix
here will become all rain. Given temps are above freezing and
the precip is light do not expect any accum other than a light
coating on the grass.
Vertically stacked ocean storm has begun its westward track
toward New Eng so expect a continuation of bands of rain
overnight which may be locally heavy at times across eastern
New Eng. Winds will begin to ramp up along east coastal MA and
Cape Cod toward daybreak as the nose of the 50-60 kt low level
jet approaches. Gusts to 40-50 mph expected.
Previous Discussion...
Closed low well south of Yarmouth Nova Scotia is vertically
stacked through the upper atmosphere. That means it isn`t going
anywhere soon. Instead it will drift west with the upper low
during the night. Strong low level jet and a favorable left exit
region of the upper jet will combine with the marine flow to
generate bands of rain than move across the Gulf of Maine and
onshore into Eastern MA.
The airmass over Southern New England was still relatively dry
during the mid afternoon, with dew point depressions of 9F at
Boston, 17F at PVD, and 22F at BDL. This dry air evaporates the
incoming precipitation leaving a very light rain at most. Expect
the rain to eat away at the dry air and eventually win out. That
will bring an increasing chance of measurable rain during the
night...soonest in Eastern MA and latest in the CT Valley and
Berkshire East Slopes.
Winds to be discussed in the short term section will increase
during the night with sustained winds 15-25 kt. Gusts will be
25-35 kt inland while the Cape/Islands/North Shore/South Shore
will increase to 40-45 kt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Large ocean storm retrogrades back to the west making its
closest approach to Southern New England Friday morning. The
storm passes just SE of the 40N/70W benchmark before continuing
to move southward during Friday.
Temperatures at 950 mb suggest daytime temps in the 40s most
places, possibly around 50 or low 50s in the CT Valley.
Winds: A stiff pressure gradient north of the low will turn
winds over Southern New England from the northeast with
increasing speeds overnight, especially across Eastern MA.
Low level northeast winds reach 50-60 kt as they approach the
Eastern MA coast. Model soundings for BOS and Plymouth show
mixing to just below the 50 kt layer while mixing at HYA reaches
into this layer Friday. Because of this expect High Wind
criteria for gusts to 60 mph on Cape Cod and Islands later
tonight into Friday night. Wind Advisory criteria for gusts to
50 mph expected along the MA East Coast.
The pressure gradient weakens late Friday and Friday night, and
the low level jet weakens and moves off to the south. As that
happens, expect the winds over Srn New England should diminish.
Rain: Bands of rain will continue to move from east to west
from the Gulf of Maine to over land. Precipitable water values
will be between 0.75 and 1.0 inches. This isn`t exceptional, but
it is above average for early April. The upper jet around the
stalled upper low will also be flowing toward the west, placing
the left exit region over Southern New England. Convergence
ahead of the low level jet and lift generated by the left exit
region upstairs should generate appreciable lift. The lift and
available moisture suggest rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches near the
coast and less than 0.5 inches in the CT Valley.
Rain and wind diminish later Friday night as the support moves
off.
See coastal flooding section below for a discussion of coastal
flood potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Becoming drier through the day on Saturday but shower chances
linger, especially over eastern MA
* A weak disturbance and approaching cold front may bring scattered
showers Sunday into Sunday night
* Dry, warmer than average conditions briefly return Monday, cooling
through mid week
* Generally dry through mid week but a few weak systems may bring
scattered showers at times
Details...
Saturday and Sunday...
Things will be ramping down Saturday morning as the coastal storm
slowly makes its way southeast and away from southern New England.
The pressure gradient continues to slacken through the day, so peak
wind gusts will occur early in the morning, mainly along the south
coast, Cape Cod, and islands. Here we`ll continue to see gusts 30 to
35 mph into early afternoon, diminishing through the evening. As for
rain chances, most should stay dry, if cloudy, most of the day.
However, can`t rule out a few scattered showers during the morning
into early afternoon, especially over eastern MA/RI where moist NE
flow in the BL and lingering jet at 925 mb may help to prolong areas
of scattered showers/drizzle. While drier air moves in aloft low
level moisture sticks around, keeping mostly cloudy skies even as
weak high pressure builds in. Highs top out in the low to mid 50s in
the CT valley, while cool NE flow keeps areas further east in the
40s.
By Sunday sfc high pressure moves overhead with a mid level ridge.
However, its tempered by a weak disturbance in the flow which may
introduce some hit and miss showers early, but overall we stay dry.
Low level moisture sticks around for at least partly cloudy skies.
Even so, modest warm advection brings 925 mb temps up to around 6C
translating to sfc highs that are warmer than Saturday, in the upper
50s in western MA/CT and low to mid 50s further east. Temperatures
have been increased a bit, especially for western MA/CT which stands
the best chance of getting into the warm sector ahead of the
approaching cold front. Chance of rain returns first in western MA
by afternoon, spreading east through the evening/overnight hours.
This is due to a sfc low which passes to our north dragging a cold
front through the region Sunday evening into Monday morning. The
best forcing remains to our north and rain chances will diminish as
it moves east. Overall a very light QPF event.
Monday...
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as 925 mb temps surge to
7-8C leading to high temperatures in the low 60s. For perspective,
average highs for early April are in the low 50s, so we`ll be about
10 degrees above normal. Weak high pressure keeps things dry and the
cold front finally scours out the low level moisture, so we should
get plenty of sun. This may allow high temps to overachieve even
what we`re currently thinking.
Tuesday through Thursday...
Beyond the post frontal drier airmass on Monday, confidence
diminishes as a trough dips down to our north over southeast Canada
ahead of an approaching ridge and eventual next organized storm
system. Timing of our next storm system is uncertain with large
swings in the guidance but generally toward Wednesday/Thursday
another chance of widespread rain returns.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z update...
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR cigs have started to move onto the Cape and Islands with
MVFR cigs further west, and the trend overnight will be
increasing IFR moving west. Expect these lowering conditions to
trend west across Southern New England during the night as the
low level dry air moistens. Western areas will to lower to
MVFR, while areas in and east of the Central Hills will lower to
IFR in rain and fog.
Northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 kt will turn from the
northeast along the coast with gusts increasing to 40-45 kt by
morning.
Friday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR/IFR conditions in periods of rain. NE gusts 40-50 kt
Cape/Islands and 35-45 kt east coastal MA into SE MA and
coastal RI. Periods of 1-3 mile vsbys in rain and fog.
Friday night...Moderate confidence.
MVFR west and IFR east. Rain and wind diminish overnight.
Northeast winds along the coast will initially gust 35-45 kt,
diminishing to 20-30 kt by morning.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. MVFR early, lowering to
IFR overnight. Rain and northeast winds gusting to 35 kt.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends, but lower
confidence on exact timing. VFR trending to MVFR CIGS overnight.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Large ocean storm south of Nova Scotia backs up to the west.
This brings strong winds and rough seas, especially to the
eastern MA waters. Storm force gusts to 50 kt are expected over
eastern waters with gusts to 40 kt over the remaining waters.
Peak of the wind will be Friday morning as the storm makes its
closest approach to the waters, then turns toward the south.
Storm warnings and gale warnings are in place. Seas will build
to 20-25 ft east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Vsbys reduced in
period of rain and fog.
Northeast winds gust to gale force Friday night, but show a
diminishing trend through the night. Rough seas continue, but
these will as show a subsiding trend through the night.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Current tidal departure at Nantucket is 2 feet. Expect a surge of
around 2.5 feet during the high tide tonight. This will bring the
storm tide just over 5 feet and there will be areas that see minor
coastal flooding for Nantucket tonight.
Friday...
The main concern is the Friday morning high tide for all of east
coastal MA as the core of strong winds and seas will occur around
this time. Confidence still high in a storm surge of 3 feet as
advertised per Stevens Institute surge ensembles. Expect seas east
of Nantucket and Cape Cod to build up to 25 feet or greater. Around
the Boston Buoys seas of 15-20 ft can be expected. These dangerous
seas will be long period/high energy waves. This will result in
widespread minor flooding along the entire east coast of MA with
pockets of moderate flooding. The risk of moderate flooding
continues at Nantucket, and also anticipate flooding at Marthas
Vineyard. Expect flooding to mostly be minor at Marthas Vineyard,
but there may be a few locations that see moderate.
Tides still are about a little less than a foot lower for the Fri
evening high tide and surge and seas will also be a bit lower. As a
result not expecting much flooding for the Fri evening high tide,
except pockets of minor flooding are possible for Nantucket.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for MAZ007-
015-016-019-022>024.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for MAZ007-019-021.
High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ022>024.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-232-250-
254-255.
Gale Warning from 2 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ233>235-237.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ251.
Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BW
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/BW
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...WTB/BW
MARINE...WTB/BW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1048 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of low pressure will track south of the Gulf of
Maine overnight. High pressure will build later Friday into
Sunday. A weak frontal system will cross the area Sunday night.
Weak high pressure will then build back in Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1040 PM Update...
Steady rain continued w/the bulk of the rainfall moving west
across the central and western areas. Rainfall amounts eclipsed
an inch across the central and downeast areas. Meddybemps
reported 1.45 inches of rain in 24 hrs. Across northern areas,
the rain had transitioned to showers w/most of Nrn and NE
Aroostook County seeing just some isolated showers. The areal
coverage was starting to consolidate and shift further s. Sfc
analysis showed intense low pres s of Nova Scotia moving ssw.
The Further n, scattered showers. The latest radar trends showed
rain backing in from New Brunswick. For this update, blended the
GEM`s placement of rainfall w/the latest HRRR to show that
consolidating trend as mentioned above. Temps were adjusted to
fit the current obs and satl trends. Cooling will take place
well after midnight w/northern and western areas being to the
first to cooldown.
Previous Discussion...
Vertically stacked low conts to spin well south of Halifax
though it has inched a tad westward since this morning. Rain
conts acrs the area with rainfall amnts averaging between
0.25-0.75" with higher amnts acrs the higher terrain. Expect
rain wl continue thru the overnight though rain is steadily
diminishing acrs the northeast at this time. This wl likely
continue this evening with no rain expected ovr nrn Aroostook by
about midnight with only low clouds persisting.
A low diurnal range is expected for tonight and again tomorrow with
cool northeasterly flow continuing throughout the day. Winds wl
slowly wind down in the aftn as low pressure begins to drift south
and pressure gradient relaxes. Cannot rule out a gust to near 40 mph
along the immediate coast early in the mrng but these wl likely
occur in the higher locations and rmn isolated at best. Expect
showers to wind down by aftn acrs the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period will feature above normal 500mb heights as upper
level and surface ridging moves over the area. Lingering low
level moisture will be sufficient for intermittent cloud cover,
particularly during the afternoon with radiative forcing and
mixing favoring stratocumulus decks. Above normal temperatures
are expected given the mild air mass in place, but cloud cover
will preclude highs from reaching as high as they otherwise
would cloud-free. A warm front will approach the area late
Sunday, leading to light rain and drizzle as it passes. Went
below the blend to the west and above it across the far east
based on where thicker cloud cover and/or precipitation will
limit diurnal temperature increases.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected
throughout the extended forecast as mid level height anomalies
turn negative based on both the GFS and European ensembles. A
quick moving shortwave trough will cross the region Sunday
evening, leading to a cold frontal passage overnight. Initial
stratiform light rain along the warm front will turn to rain and
snow showers with the passage of the cold front. Cooler air
aloft may steepen lapse rates enough for an isolated shower
during the day Monday, but confidence and anticipated coverage
are not sufficient for more than slight chance PoPs at this
time. Cloud cover and colder air across the north will keep
temperatures cooler compared to Downeast Maine, where highs
well into the 50s are forecast.
A weak ridge will cross the area Tuesday and Wednesday with
mainly dry conditions. Uncertainty in high temperatures is
greatest on Wednesday as return flow sets up and the high moves
east of the forecast area. There is potential for milder
temperatures than forecast if thicker mid and upper level cloud
cover fails to overspread the region as quickly.
The GFS and European ensembles, as well as major operational
guidance indicate a potent upper level trough moving towards the
Great Lakes and southern Quebec by day 7/next Thursday. There
are still significant differences in timing, with the 12z
European on the slower side and 12z GFS on the faster side.
Edged PoPs later given the GFS progressive bias, peaking around
50 to 60 percent Thursday afternoon. Its too early to
determine precipitation type with any certainty, but ensembles
and the 12z European both show potential for snow with a surface
low passing over the southern half of the forecast area.
Decreased temperatures to a blend of the 25th and 50th
percentiles on Thursday to bring mentions of rain and snow mix
farther south given uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR will lower to IFR at FVE and HUL after 05z
tonight in low cigs. Rmndr of terminals should remain low MVFR
through daybreak Friday. -Ra will come to an end for far
northern terminals after 00z and slowly end fm north to south
aft 06z tonight. NE winds continue to gust in excess of 20kts
and closer to 30kts for Downeast terminals.
LLWS expected at all terminals with NE winds varying between
20-50kts tonight and Fri morning.
SHORT TERM:
Friday night into Saturday...MVFR with NE winds decreasing and
becoming light by the afternoon.
Saturday night into Sunday...Mainly MVFR with breaks of VFR
possible. Light and variable winds, turning SSW late Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday night...MVFR to IFR early with rain
showers, becoming VFR late Sunday night. Light SW winds early,
shifting NW and increasing late Sunday night. Gusts up to 25 kts
possible during the day Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale warning is in effect for all waters tonight and
tomorrow with winds gusting to near 45kts as strong coastal low
retrogrades back toward the waters. Seas wl rmn elevated over
10ft on the outer waters through Friday and over 5ft over the
intracoastal waters.
SHORT TERM: The Gale Warning has been extended through early
Saturday morning, excluding the intra-coastal waters and
Penobscot Bay, where a small craft advisory will be required.
Gusts will be subsiding during this period, but will still be
around 35 kts over the outer waters. Winds will continue to
decrease Saturday, but seas will maintain small craft conditions
through Saturday night. Winds and seas will subside below small
craft Sunday and remain below small craft through Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A surge up to 1 to 2 feet due to persistent NE flow is expected
to affect the Friday and Saturday morning high tides. ETSS
output has consistently shown a surge of around 1 foot, which
given the persistent surface flow, may be underdone. A
relatively low astronomical high tide is expected around 7 am
Friday and 8am Sat. Areas affected by NE winds and seas will
likely see the greater impacts. Trends in nearshore wave
periods will need to be watched, with periods approaching 14
seconds possibly causing wave overtopping in susceptible areas.
Overall, minor overwash is possible and a statement may be
needed.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ052.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
937 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
...HYDROLOGY UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
High based showers and a few storms have made slow and steady
progress east and north tonight, as handled by reflectivity in
HRRR runs. QPF has been low in general, and despite the DBZ over
50, it seems only 0.2 to 0.3 has reached the surface. This should
decrease as it move northeast tonight, and have blended the higher
evening pops into the chance pops overnight.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Cold front extends from western MN through western IA and into
the TX panhandle. Gusty southeast surface winds ahead of the
front and some peaks of sunshine at times has resulted in mild
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. The pattern aloft
features a trough over the Rockies and a ridge from the
Upper Midwest through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Regional
radars show a batch of showers advancing northward across MO
into southern IA attendant to a shortwave ejecting from the
Rockies trough. Even some lightning being detected into far
northern MO on edge of elevated MUCAPE axis.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Main shortwave trough over the Rockies will lift across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next 24 hrs, and
will aid in the cold front shifting across the region Friday
into Friday evening.
Tonight, the cold front looks to remain just west of the area
with region in the warm sector. This will be characterized
by gusty south/southeast winds at times, and mild temperatures
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Scattered showers
are also expected at times with shortwave energy ejecting out
ahead of the trough.
Friday and Friday night, the cold front will gradually push
across the area accompanied by bouts of rain/showers. Elevated
instability looks rather meager with MUCAPE less than 500 j/kg,
but can`t rule out some isolated thunder. PWATs surge to around an
inch, but forcing is modest albeit weakening as the main wave is
pulling away from the area. Thus anticipate mostly lighter rain
amounts of around 0.25 inch or less, but potential for a few
pockets of near 0.5 inch with more modest forcing favored NW with
PVA, and possibly far SE within better low level moisture.
Rain will slowly end from west to east overnight Friday night
into early Saturday AM. Before ending could see rain transition
to a wintry mix, especially NW of Quad Cities. Warm ground
and temps at or above freezing should preclude impacts, but
can`t totally rule out a very light glazing possible on some elevated
surfaces.
As for temperatures on Friday believe many areas along and east
of the Mississippi River will squeak out another day in the 60s
with some filtered sunshine, south winds and mostly scattered
coverage of showers... that is until the front arrives during
the afternoon at which time onset of widespread rain and northwest
winds will send temperatures down through the 50s. Meanwhile,
heading west of the Mississippi River temperatures will likely
top out in the 50s, but then fall through the 40s with the more
widespread rain and northwest winds post-frontal.
Lows Friday night are expected to slip below the freezing mark
north/west of the Quad Cities, with mid to upper 30s to the
east.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Models are in good agreement through Sunday but then disagree
quickly with the timing and placement of features for the remainder
of the long term. The main forecast concern was chances of
precipitation.
Friday nights precipitation will be coming to an end by mid morning
as the better forcing and moisture move off to the east on Saturday
morning. Precipitation will come to an end before freezing rain
becomes an issue with overnight temperatures on Saturday morning.
High temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below the normal
highs in the mid to upper 50s. High pressure will build in the Upper
Midwest the surface and aloft bringing quiet weather to the region
for the weekend.
The respite will be shortlived as active weather returns for Monday
through Thursday. A complicated split flow is in place across North
America. Weak shortwave troughs from the northern and southern
branches of the jet stream interact across the Mid Mississippi River
Valley through the week to bring several rounds of rain to the area.
The timing of these individual waves varies by as much as twelve
hours between the models which results in broad brush chances of
precipitation through the forecast. The models do agree that these
storm systems are weaker but they do show some instability Monday
through Tuesday. This will keep chances of thunderstorms in the
forecast Monday through Tuesday night.
A digging shortwave in the northern jet stream will move a surface
low across Minnesota and Wisconsin Tuesday into Tuesday night which
will drag a cold front across the area. Convergence does not look
strong along the front but with the uncertainty with split flow,
models have time to work out the details. In the wake of this storm
system, high pressure builds back into the area for the second half
of Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will be warming Saturday through Tuesday with highs by
Tuesday in the 70s. High temperatures will be in the 60s Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures Monday through Thursday will be above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
High based light rain showers and some isolated brief
thunderstorms are possible through the night tonight, as all of
eastern Iowa and Illinois are on the warm side of a cold front,
with southeast winds at 10 to 20 kts, and VFR cigs. Behind the
cold front, there is extensive low IFR clouds, mvfr visibility and
rain. That can be expected to slowly push east into our area
Friday, but this is a slower progression than earlier issued
today. I now expect the cold front to be very close to the
Mississippi River by 22-00z at the end of the forecast period.
This will keep VFR to MVFR conditions going longer than earlier
forecast.
ERVIN
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Evening updates have resulted in no real change to the going
forecasts. There has been a general data outage, thus our
statements this evening are using some early evening stage data.
In maintenance of forecasts tonight, we`ve upgraded the Bellevue
site to minor warning cancelling/upgrading the watch. Downstream,
Keokuk has fallen below flood stage, and is not forecast to exceed
it in the next week. Thus this is likely a temporary period
without a flood warning for that site, as routed flow well
upstream may bring it to flood, just beyond the next week out.
Previous DiscussionIssued at 1103 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Rises are expected north of the Quad Cities on the Mississippi
through the next 7 days. The flood watch remains in effect for
Bellevue with it not reaching flood stage until next Thursday.
From the Quad Cities southward, the river will fall slightly
through early next week before rising during the last half of the
week. One change to the flood warnings was to upgrade the
warnings at Camanche and Muscatine with both sites now expected to
rise to their moderate stages late next week.
The Rock River at Joslin and Moline remains the only tributary
river in the area above flood stage. Both locations are currently
forecast to fall below flood stage late Sunday into Monday
morning.
Precipitation across the area today and tonight will have no
significant impacts on area rivers. Rainfall amounts across
eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri
through Saturday morning are forecast to be between 0.20 and 0.50
inches of rain. This is not expected to produce tributary rises
off any significance with all tributary forecast points expected
to fall over next 7 days. Higher rainfall amounts are possible
north of the area through Saturday morning which may have impacts
to the Mississippi River forecasts later next week. The weather
pattern remains active over the next week but there remains
uncertainty in the amount of rainfall that will occur and its
impacts on the ongoing Mississippi River flooding. Current
outlooks continue to have chances for above normal rainfall over
the next 14 days.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.AVIATION...
Conditions are mixed across South Central Texas this evening behind a
round of thunderstorms that has pushed off to the east of the TAF
sites. DRT is VFR, AUS is MVFR, while the San Antonio Terminals are
IFR. In general conditions will deteriorate through the late evening
and overnight hours until all sites are IFR by between 06z and 09z.
Some patchy LIFR cigs will be possible along the I-35 corridor during
the overnight hours as well, but confidence was only high enough at
this point to include those at SAT. Winds will remain southerly
through the overnight hours into tomorrow.
Ceilings on Friday will only slowly rebound with MVFR returning
around 16-18z. Showers will begin to form ahead of the front Friday
morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across most
of South Central Texas by early Friday afternoon. Because of this
have prevailed thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the
overnight hours along the I-35 terminals. Chances for storms are less
at DRT so included only -RA there. While storms won`t be continuous
through the afternoon hours multiple clusters and eventually a broken
line of storms are forecast as the front approaches. The front should
bring a northeasterly windshift just beyond this TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Reduction of POPs this afternoon due to current trends of overcast
cloud cover and elevated precip not reaching the surface. Still hold
20-40 POPs for eastern areas this afternoon and evening for showers
and an isolated thunderstorm. There has been no break in cloud cover
all morning and early afternoon. As time goes on, chance for any
thunder is dwindling. HRRR and TTWRF have backed off on sim
reflectivity presentation this afternoon for the latest runs.
Temperatures remains on the mild to cool side with afternoon highs
in the low 70s for most of the area given the cloud cover. Places
that see partial clearing along the Rio Grande may reach the low
80s. Surface dewpoints remain elevated tonight and can expect areas
of fog to develop along the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Hill
Country.
Attention then focuses out west for severe weather threat beginning
on Friday. A mid level trough will reach the central and northern
plains by Friday morning, dragging a fast moving cold front into
south central TX. Out ahead of the front, decent instability of 1500-
2000 J/kg CAPE will be in place and mid level lapse rates around 7
to 7.5 C/km. Decent deep layer shear as well with sfc-6km around 40-
50 knots, low level shear/SRH is lacking however which leaves
concerns for tornado threat low at the moment. Plenty of moisture
will also be in place with pwat values mid day Friday around 1.6 -
1.9 across most of the region, which is above the 90th percentile
for this time of year.
Overall model trends the last 36 hours have brought convective
initiation earlier into Friday afternoon. Current thinking is
sometime around 16-18Z to see the first cells fire along and north
of HWY 90 and south of I-10 before the front reaches the region.
This early activity will carry a large hail threat with most cells
remaining isolated at first. Deep layer shear will promote long
lived storms with heavy rainfall and hail threat. Damaging wind
threat will also be a concern under the most precip loaded storms.
Front looks to reach the CWA around 18-19Z. This front will quickly
sweep through the region and providing a forcing mechanism for large
scale ascent and produce a spread of wide coverage of storms
eastward over the region. Storm progression at this point should
become mesoscale driven and cold pool dominated.
Heavy rainfall threat will be on the increase heading into the
evening hours of Friday. There is high uncertainty with the exact
placement of precip accumulations. Global ensemble guidance is
hinting at accumulations of generally 1-2 inches for the I-35
corridor and Hill Country with isolated amounts up to 3-4 inches
possible. As an example of the uncertainty, the 12Z HRRR shows a
precip max over the Austin metro of 5+ inches with other hi res
guidance showing around an inch for the same area. The atmosphere
will certainly be capable of producing heavy rainfall given moisture
content and storm dynamics in place. Will be entering into a wet
spring pattern towards the end of the short term period.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A wet weekend is in store across all of south central Texas as a cold
front and a series of upper level disturbances yield an unsettled
weather pattern. Rain chances remain very high on Saturday across
all areas as we will continue to see plenty of moisture and an upper
level jet moving in from the west. Despite the passage of a cold
front and some drier air in the low-levels, precipitable water values
will still be above climatological normals. It will be difficult to
pinpoint where the higher amounts will occur on Saturday, but current
data tends to favor areas along and east of I-35. It will be much
cooler as well with highs ranging from the upper 50s in the Hill
Country to near 70 in the coastal plains.
The cool air in the low-levels modifies quickly on Sunday as
southeasterly winds return to most of the region by late afternoon. A
warm front could move northward into the coastal plains and will need
to be watched for helping to increase precipitation amounts east of
I-35/I-37. Southeast to southerly winds continue to increase on
Monday signaling a warming and moistening trend. We will continue to
see an active southwest flow aloft and timing of shortwave activity
will be difficult at best. We will maintain good rain chances across
all areas, especially given precipitable water values in the 1.5-2"
range across the region. A fairly similar pattern remains intact on
Tuesday, but with upper level ridging beginning to move in from the
south, we will keep rain chances in the 20-50% range for most areas.
A brief lull in the wet pattern appears to take shape for the middle
portion of the upcoming week as a strong upper low drops southward
into the desert southwest. The models disagree on the timing and
movement of this feature as we head into the late portion of the
forecast period. The GFS shows a stout trough axis swinging through
just beyond the current forecast period, while the ECMWF holds the
upper low intact over the desert southwest. For now we will show an
increase in rain chances, but will cap most chances at 50% for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 72 67 80 56 62 / 30 30 80 80 80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 66 80 56 62 / 30 30 80 80 80
New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 67 79 58 64 / 30 30 70 80 80
Burnet Muni Airport 72 65 76 51 58 / 30 30 70 70 80
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 70 81 61 69 / - 20 60 70 80
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 66 78 53 60 / 50 30 70 80 80
Hondo Muni Airport 73 67 79 59 69 / 30 20 60 70 90
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 66 80 56 63 / 30 30 70 80 80
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 68 81 60 67 / 50 30 70 80 80
San Antonio Intl Airport 71 67 80 59 65 / 30 30 70 80 80
Stinson Muni Airport 72 68 82 61 67 / 30 20 60 80 80
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
730 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
As anticipated, local webcams, obs, and snotels all show snow
having ended for most zones. A few lingering snow showers are
possible over the next few hours but as the front has pushed to
the south, significant snow accumulation is no longer expected.
Cancelled the advisories. It`s still snowing in Aspen with some
snow accumulation on the roads...maybe an inch or so. The HRRR
still looking to end snow in the next hour or two and forecast
follows suit.
UPDATE Issued at 649 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
A band of heavier precip has set up from Aspen proper, northward
to about El Jebel. Webcams show some snow sticking to roadways and
short-range guidance highlighting this band quite well. Another
hour or two of this heavier snowfall is possible so bumped up snow
totals to between 1 to 2 inches for that corridor and also PoP
values. Out west, clearing skies have already moved into most of
eastern Utah, Dolores County, and the Grand Valley. Lowered PoPs
for those areas. Kept the advisories going but suspect I`ll be
pulling them down in the next few hours.
UPDATE Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
The cold front has pushed through most of zones 1 and 2 with some
sun poking out for northwestern Colorado. A few more snow showers
will continue for those areas but any significant accumulation has
ended. Roads also look fairly dry with only grassy surfaces seeing
appreciable snow amounts. With that, cancelled the winter weather
advisories. Still seeing some snow in the Elkheads, Flat Tops, and
Park Ranges and the town of Steamboat Springs so will keep those
advisories going.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah have reached
seasonably warm temperatures and have seen some blue skies today,
while areas across the northern half of the CWA felt their warmest
temps last night due to a cold front charging across the region.
Strong southwesterly winds will continue this afternoon ahead of
the frontal boundary, which is currently stretched across San Juan
county in southeast Utah into the central Colorado mountains
through Gunnison county. Showery precipitation will continue to
build along and trail behind the cold front, as the boundary
tracks east-southeastward across the region. As a result,
precipitation will spread across all mountain ranges this
evening, though likely breaking up along the San Juans, preventing
precipitation from reaching the ground over our southern valleys.
Short term CAM guidance produces pockets of 100-300 J/kg of
SBCAPE over the central and southern Colorado mountains this
afternoon, so would not be surprised if a few more strikes of
lightning are observed prior to sunset, mainly south of the I-70
corridor. Have left current highlights in place, due to ongoing
showers across the Upper Yampa Basin and favorable orographically
forced showers anticipated to persist over the Northwest Colorado
Mountains and the Flat Tops this evening.
Precipitation will quickly diminish from west to east this
evening, as the base of an upper level trough swings across the
region and dry northwest flow filters in. Clearing conditions are
already present over Uintah County and stretching into far
northwestern Colorado along the US-40 corridor. Expect clearing
skies to spread across the rest of the region tonight, with the
exception of lingering snow showers holding on to higher terrain
along the Divide. Lack of cloud cover tonight and cold air aloft
will create perfect conditions for strong radiational cooling, and
thus, frigid temperatures by Friday morning. Expect below
freezing conditions across the entire CWA with single digits
probably in far northeast Utah!
Mountain precipitation should finally taper off by sunrise
Friday, leaving the entire CWA under dry and unseasonably cool
conditions. Mostly clear skies are forecast for Friday, which will
allow temperatures to moderate after today`s cold front. However,
expect one more day of below normal high T`s for early April. A
slight southwesterly wind shift during evening hours will provide
mild WAA into the region, with some increasing mid-to-high- level
clouds streaming in from the southwest.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
he main headline through the weekend will be the progression of the
next Pacific low south along the west coast. This will allow for a
gradual transition from west-southwest to southwesterly flow aloft
across eastern Utah and western Colorado during the Saturday-Sunday
timeframe. 700mb temperatures will continue to rebound in response
to the more mild upper level flow with daytime highs returning to
above seasonal normals. Dry conditions are favored for Sunday across
the region, though a shortwave passing over the Northern Rockies may
brush our northern counties early in the day.
The new work week will see the Pacific low remain just shy of the
central California coast. Moisture entrenched in the cyclonic
rotation will be advected into the Great Basin throughout the day
with only an increase in mid and high level clouds materializing
over our forecast area. Extended models continue to disagree on what
will happen with the low`s circulation from Tuesday onwards.
In today`s 12z forecast cycle, the GFS and ECMWF have switched
places. The GFS is now more progressive with a southerly push of
moisture coming into southern Utah and the Four Corners by Wednesday
night into Thursday, whereas the ECMWF remains farther west. In
fact, this forecast from the GFS would support a fairly robust
precipitation event across much of the southern Utah and Colorado,
with cold air in place and plenty of snow for the mountains. The
ECMWF remains farther west until Thursday afternoon when a band of
moisture moves in over the Four Corners. Forecast differences
continue through the end of the week with the GFS moving this pesky
system out into the plains by Thursday night and Friday and the
ECMWF keeping it well back to the west over the southern Great
Basin. Needless to say, forecast confidence is very low from midweek
onward. Ensemble guidance does show below normal heights through
this period, so we have a good chance of seeing a storm system.
Timing of this system remains the biggest question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020
The front continues to weaken as it moves across central portions
of the region. KGJT will continue to see clouds lift while KRIL,
KEGE, and KASE will see some heavier showers for the next hour or
so...maybe two. Conditions will be MVFR but will quickly jump back
to VFR once the line of showers drops to south and weakens.
Remaining TAF sites will see improving conditions through the
overnight period. Not too concerned with fog at TAF sites for the
overnight hours though KHDN `might` see some towards the morning
hours. Not sure enough of the lower atmosphere is and remains
saturated for fog to form so no mention in TAFs. Expect widespread
VFR by 12Z though most sites will hit VFR well before then.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...ERW
LONG TERM...MMS/MAC
AVIATION...TGR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
735 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
...Updated for Aviation Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
A cold front is surging to the southeast and bringing in the colder
air much quicker than many models have predicted. This cooler air
has led to temperatures dropping 15 to 20 degrees in less than an
hour. As of this issuance, the front is located roughly from
McPherson to Hutchinson to Medicine Lodge.
Per the previous update:
With increasing convergence with the front and dryline, still think
there is a conditional chance for an isolated strong/severe storm to
develop along this boundary, potentially right along the KS Turnpike
or I-135. Limiting factor for storm development will be a strong
elevated mixed layer which may "cap" off convection from
developing. Latest RAP bufkit soundings suggest cap erodes
somewhat, close to when the polar front arrives, just not sure
this will be enough for a storm to get going, even with increasing
convergence. Bulk shear around 25 kts suggests a strong to
possibly severe storm, if one can develop. Confidence is low that
there will be strong or severe storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Highlights:
1) Chances of thunderstorms this evening
2) Freezing drizzle/freezing rain possibly tonight into Friday
3) Cold on Friday
4) Frost and hard freeze possible Saturday morning in SC KS
Challenges:
1) Temperatures thru the evening and Friday
2) Chances for precipitation
3) Impacts of freezing precipitation in C KS
Changes:
1) Temperatures today and tonight
2) Expansion of Winter Weather Advisory
Headlines: Winter Weather Advisory tonight into Friday morning
As mentioned in the Synopsis section, the surface low pressure
system and its respective cold front continue to move through
Kansas. This system brings a complication of weather with the
potential for thunderstorms this evening and tonight; a conditional
probability of strong to severe thunderstorms exists for the narrow
corridor highlighted above or primarily portions of south central
Kansas. Plenty of cold air at the surface exists to result in the
possibility of freezing drizzle and freezing rain across central
Kansas as discussed in the previous issuance. Since this colder air
has made a greater eastward push with lower temperatures than
previously thought, there is potential for freezing rain across a
larger area of central Kansas. The question is the impacts based on
ground/road temperatures well above freezing at this point. A more
likely impact will be to elevated surfaces such as bridges and
overpasses. Thus there has been an expansion to the Winter Weather
Advisory. Please see the headline for additional information.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to fall to the upper 20s to
lower 30s for central and portions of south central Kansas.
Friday will be unpleasant with the cold air and precipitation as
temperatures are only expected to climb into the 40s. Freezing rain
could persist into the mid morning with temperatures increasing
above freezing later on. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens
to lower 20s thru late morning. If you do have to head out, bundling
up would be a good plan. Another chilly start to Saturday is
anticipated with frost and hard freeze headline potential for all
but the far southeast corner of the state. If you have started
planting, you will want to cover any sensitive plants. A relative
warm up is anticipated through the rest of the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
1) Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily in
southeast Kansas
2) Warm up back into the 70s
An upper low along the west coast will have a northern portion
and a cut off portion to move across for the first part of next
week. There are periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms
throughout this time frame in southeast Kansas. A better system is
anticipated to move through at the end of the week. It is still
too early to tell on the chances of precipitation, coverage and
strength of any convective development. Stay tuned. One highlight
is most definitely the return to temperatures in the 70s and
around 80 for most of next week. It will be nice to return to
spring.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Widespread MVFR to possibly high IFR ceilings will impact the
region overnight. Thinking areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle
will gradually develop across mainly the eastern half of Kansas by
late evening, persisting much of the night. The freezing drizzle
may create a very light glaze of ice on primarily elevated
surfaces, mainly along/northwest of the KS Turnpike corridor.
Furthermore, may even see a brief period of more meaningful sleet
and/or freezing rain across mainly central and north-central
Kansas sometime between roughly 05-09z. Conditions will gradually
improve from west to east Friday, although southeast Kansas will
remain IFR or low MVFR all day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 33 47 30 53 / 60 40 0 10
Hutchinson 30 47 28 51 / 60 20 0 10
Newton 31 46 28 51 / 70 50 0 10
ElDorado 33 45 30 53 / 70 50 10 10
Winfield-KWLD 35 45 33 54 / 60 50 10 10
Russell 27 46 24 52 / 60 10 0 10
Great Bend 27 47 25 52 / 50 10 0 10
Salina 29 46 26 51 / 80 30 0 10
McPherson 29 45 26 50 / 80 30 0 10
Coffeyville 41 42 37 54 / 70 70 40 10
Chanute 38 40 34 53 / 80 70 30 10
Iola 38 40 33 53 / 80 70 30 10
Parsons-KPPF 40 41 36 54 / 70 70 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Friday
for KSZ032-033-047>053.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BDK/VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...ADK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
842 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Changes were pretty minimal during the short term period, with
little changes made to the winter storm that will impact the area
tonight into Friday. Basically, we`re still looking at up to 0.2"
of ice accumulations, with snow amounts generally an inch or less.
The one thing that should help limit the impacts of the freezing
rain on the roads is the fact that it will just plain rain ahead of
the transition to wintry precipitation. Wet roads will not cool as
fast as dry roads would, so this should help minimize the impacts
from icing on roads, save for overpasses.
This is an impressive system out there this afternoon. The cold
front moved little this morning, but has started its trek east this
afternoon. The temperature gradient across the front is pretty
strong. For example, at 1130 this morning, the temperatures across
Yellow Medicine county ranged from 54 at Granite Falls on the east
end of the county to 36 in Canby out west (a distance of about 40
miles). Beside the temperature gradient, we saw thunderstorms
develop in central SoDak where temperatures were in the upper teens!
So where has our precip been? Well, we`ve been under the influence
of the ridge, while forcing with the front has all been well behind
it. That starts changing this afternoon. First, showers developing
over northern MO/southern IA are associated with a surge in the LLJ,
which the RAP shows reaching to the Twin Cities around 00z, so we
expect we`ll start to see some warm sector showers push into south
central MN this afternoon that will quickly move up into eastern
central MN/western WI by 00z, which is what the HRRR has been
depicting. Model spread for frontal timing is pretty low, so used
HREF and a blend of the short term models to drive the temperature
drop across the area and drive the transition from rain to something
wintry. As for thunder chances, those look best with the LLJ surge
this afternoon into the evening mentioned earlier, when the RAP
shows best LIs dropping to around -1 (which is what we are seeing
now out on the MN/SD border that`s helping drive the thunderstorm
activity out there).
For Friday, it will be cold. Airmass behind the cold front is very
cold, as evidenced by temps around +10F at noon in the western
Dakotas. The one advantage we`ll have to tomorrow is there will be
mostly sunny skies the afternoon, but it will still be a struggle to
hit 40 in MN and have forecast highs for Friday that are 20 to 30
degrees colder than what we`ll see today. Going into Friday night,
the two changes that came about were to speed up the departure of
PoPs in WI and drop temps a few degrees, with clear skies and a cold
and dry airmass overhead. Should see lows Saturday morning range
from the mid teens in western MN to the mid 20s in southeast MN and
western WI.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Fortunately, the Friday cold snap will last all of one day. We`ll
quickly see upper heights build over the weekend as a flat ridge
builds in, with quasi-zonal flow expected through Tuesday. Wednesday
still looks to represent our pattern shift day, with a northern
stream trough coming out of the Canadian Prairies into the Great
Lakes that will transition us to a cooler northwest flow to end the
week.
For Saturday through Tuesday, not much has changed with the
forecast, other than a drying out of the forecast for Saturday and
Sunday. There continues to be a prolonged period of chance pop
mention from Sunday night through Tuesday as we continue to get
peppered by weak waves. The periods that show the best model
agreement for potential showers are Sunday night into Monday morning
and Monday night into Tuesday. For temperatures, we`ll see highs in
the 40s on Saturday, up into the 50s on Sunday, with the NBM still
hitting 60s on Monday and Tuesday. 70s still look possible on
Tuesday, though what happens with cloud cover from precipitation
Monday night will determine whether or not that will be achievable
on Tuesday across southern MN.
From Wednesday on, we transition to northwest flow. However, there
continues to be lots of disagreement with how long lasting and
intense this cold snap will be. How strong the trough digging into
the Great Lakes is for the end of the week will determine whether or
not we see another storm system for the end of the the week. Looking
back at the cold season just passed, anytime we saw these sorts of
cool downs in the mean ensemble patterns in the one to two week out
portion of the forecast, they almost always ended up not being as
extreme or long lasting as they were indicated in the one to two
week out timeframe, so we`ll see what happens this time around.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 841 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
Rain showers continue to spread east into central Minnesota this
evening, with rain already changing over to a wintry mix of
freezing rain and snow at AXN & RWF. Rain will continue to
changeover to freezing rain and snow from west to east overnight,
reaching MSP tomorrow morning and RNH by tomorrow afternoon. IFR
conditions are already present across western Minnesota and
conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight, with MVFR
ceilings developing by midnight at most terminals and dropping to
IFR shortly after precipitation begins. Southeast winds will
abruptly change to northwesterly as a cold front heads east
overnight into tomorrow, quickly followed by the aforementioned
transition from liquid to wintry precipitation.
KMSP...Still looks like rainfall will begin around 03-04Z, with
IFR ceilings developing a few hours later around 06-08Z. A brief
period of freezing rain or sleet is still possible tomorrow
morning, with the transition and associated wind shift from
southeasterly to northwesterly likely occurring around 12-14Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat-Sun...VFR. Wind VRB <5 kts.
Mon...VFR to MVFR. Chance -RA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for MNZ044-
050-051-059-066>069-075>077-083>085-092-093.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ041-047-
048-054>056-064.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ042-043-049-
057-058-065-073-074-082-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...ETA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
932 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
.UPDATE...
Current radar trends showing widespread showers just south of the
I-20 Corridor in NE TX with more in the way of scattered to
isolated activity near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor in
Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas as well as portions of
Northeast Louisiana. Our 00z sounding showed a layer of drier air
around 850mb which is helping to evaporate some of this activity
across our eastern zones but its a pretty safe bet that drier
layer has been overcome across Deep East Texas.
For the remainder of the night, beefed up pops south of the
corridor as mentioned above and beefed up pops across our
northwest zones as there is pretty good agreement between latest
runs of the HRRR and HREF output that we should see increased
coverage here given a mid level impulse expected to move eastward
across the Middle Red River Valley later tonight.
Did not make too much in the way of temperatures changes overnight
given the rain chances and cloud cover. Otherwise, all other grids
are in pretty good shape with no additional changes necessary.
Updated zones already sent...13.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
AVIATION...
Continuing to see moisture overspread our airspace today with some
precipitation trying to make it down to the ground across E Tx.
This activity having to saturate the atmosphere from the top down
with low VFR ceilings currently at the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals.
As we go through the evening into the overnight hours, think these
should be our only trouble spots concerning ceilings but will need
to watch the possibility of spreading MVFR ceilings into the TXK
and SHV terminals near or close to sunrise on Friday. Friday, NE
TX terminals should remain MVFR through the day with in and out
showers which may also reduce VSBYS to MVFR criteria. Also, can`t
rule out some embedded TSRA during the late morning but
especially the afternoon hours on Friday across all terminal
locations with the exception of the ELD/MLU terminals.
Winds will remain SE to S near 3-8kts overnight, with SE to S
winds on Friday beyond mid morning near 7-12kts with possible
slightly higher gusts at the NE TX terminal locations.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 74 58 72 / 30 60 50 60
MLU 57 78 59 75 / 20 20 20 50
DEQ 56 69 51 67 / 50 70 70 60
TXK 57 71 55 67 / 40 70 50 70
ELD 56 74 58 72 / 20 40 40 60
TYR 60 74 50 64 / 60 70 70 60
GGG 59 74 54 68 / 50 70 60 60
LFK 61 78 58 72 / 70 50 60 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
13/13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
927 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Regional VAD profilers show modest warm advection pattern across
the southern plains, which is forecast to strengthen some
overnight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have
developed across southeast OK in the past hour or so, which has
been depicted by recent HRRR runs, which expand convection
further overnight. Strong cold front just now entering NW Osage
County and showers and thunderstorms should also expand north
across the rest of the forecast area as the front moves southeast.
Sharply colder temps noted behind the front and forecast has this
trend well covered. Main change to going forecast was to raise
thunderstorm chances across southeast OK based on current trends.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered light showers and prevailing low VFR ceilings currently
will trend toward prevailing MVFR ceilings overnight ahead of the
approaching strong cold front. Shower and storm chances will
increase in proximity to the frontal boundary especially across
western AR by early morning with ceilings lowering into low MVFR
to IFR levels which then persist through Friday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 231 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2020/
DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concerns will be convective potential/severity
thru Friday in association with a strong cold front.
A strong cold front, with Arctic roots as evidenced by obs across
western Canada down into MT/Dakotas, stretched from western MN
south across central KS and down into the OK Panhandle as of 18Z.
The NAM initialized reasonably well this morning and will be
leaned on heavily for hourly T/winds thru Friday. The front has
trended faster with each run.
Elevated instability has increased some over the area during the
day today, as evidenced by the isolated storm activity currently.
Elevated instability should increase further tonight across the
region and the latest CAMs depict a band of scattered showers and
storms developing after midnight and into Friday morning along and
ahead of the front. There should be another band of post-frontal
showers and storms during the afternoon as well. Deep layer shear
is not impressive over our area, in fact, its only marginal at
best as our area resides between stronger northern stream flow
well back behind the front and stronger southern stream flow over
TX. The faster front also insures that the true warm sector will
not lift north of the Red River. These factors will limit the
overall severe threat to isolated severe hail potential.
Much of our area will start off pretty mild in the morning when
folks head off to work. However, that will be a different story
by the end of the work day tomorrow with north winds and falling
temps.
Expect a chilly and fairly tranquil start to the weekend before
more rain and isolated storms lift back into the region Sunday and
Monday in a warm advection regime. Warm and more humid conditions
are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, while also dry with shortwave
ridging overhead. A back door front may bring a chance for storms
by Wednesday night and cooler temps by Thursday.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 48 37 55 / 70 80 50 10
FSM 58 64 44 60 / 50 80 60 30
MLC 57 60 38 57 / 50 90 50 20
BVO 38 40 35 54 / 80 70 30 10
FYV 57 62 38 55 / 50 90 70 30
BYV 57 65 39 53 / 50 80 70 40
MKO 56 58 38 57 / 60 90 60 10
MIO 50 53 37 53 / 60 90 70 10
F10 47 52 38 55 / 60 90 50 10
HHW 60 63 42 62 / 50 80 70 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14