Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Convection continues, though drastically decreased in intensity, along the low-level convergence boundary over central North Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night across the central portions of the state. Further west, a potent upper level jet is expected to nose over the western Dakotas tonight, with northwest North Dakota under the increasingly divergent left exit region. Short-term guidance continues to show a mesoscale banding potential as 850-700mb frontogenesis increases early Wednesday morning amid a widespread area of negative EPV. No changes were made to the going headlines and snowfall totals but this will need to be monitored as a narrow band of greater snowfall rates could develop through the morning hours. UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 This evening, a line of convection was stretching from Renville/Bottineau through Morton county into Grant county. On the southern end, a storm with supercell characteristics has developed around the 00Z hour where there has been a lack of further southward convective initiation. South-end convection will continue to tap into an atmosphere of modest instability and deep layer shear but effective SRH values of 150 to near 200 m2/s2. 00Z KBIS observed sounding shows a capping inversion at 760mb, which indicates the eastward progression of a potentially severe risk should be limited to the next couple hours. Until then, steep mid-level lapse rates (measured by KBIS sounding at 8 C/km) and more than enough deep layer sheer will continue the severe hail threat through southern Morton county in the short- term. With the effective storm-relative helicity values and the supercell storm type, this would normally carry a tornado risk as well. But with the inversion on the KBIS sounding and an increasingly decoupled boundary layer after sunset, this risk should be well mitigated. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Thunderstorms this afternoon across the central and the potential for heavy snowfall across the northwest and north central tonight and tomorrow highlight the short term forecast challenges. A potent upper level shortwave will approach the western part of the state tonight. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough and following cold front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. The latest iterations of the RAP continue to advertise 0-1 km MLCAPE values of 500 to 1200 J/kg along and ahead of these boundaries through the evening. CAMs have been consistent in developing a line of showers and storms from the Canadian Border to the South Dakota border, just west of the Missouri River in the 20z to 22z time frame. With deep layer shear values only forecast to range from 20 to 35 knots, severe weather is not anticipated but stronger cores may produce some small hail and gusty winds. As storms move to the east, they will begin to diminish with the loss of diurnal heating but showers may stick around for a few hours. Behind the front, the approaching shortwave and strong vort max will pivot and nudge its way into the western part of the state tonight, bringing with it plenty of upper level forcing and cold air advection. The NAM and GFS both advertise the potential for some heavy banded snow somewhere across the northwest and/or the north central. Strong low to mid level frontogenesis is forecast to be co-located with strong upper level Q-vector divergence. Decent lapse rates and strong omega in the dendritic growth zone also appear to be likely along the path of a 700 mb low that closes off, potentially adding a convective element to the snow. The area of heaviest snow will likely be dependent on where this low ends up tracking. Because of this signal, we elected to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the northwest and north central from 06z Wednesday through 00z Thursday. A wide swath of 3 to 6 inch snow accumulation looks reasonable in the Advisory area with locally higher amounts possible wherever that heavier band sets up. The timing of the heaviest snow will likely be from Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. The 700 mb low then moves quickly north into western Manitoba with snow diminishing across the north central by the early evening hours on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 The focus in the long term is the potential for accumulating snowfall late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Uncertainty in exact snowfall amounts remains high in this time period, but confidence in at least some snow falling over much of southern ND including the James River valley is high enough to support 50 to 80 percent snow chances centered on the daytime hours Thursday. Synoptically, a basal shortwave trough embedded within a broader region of low heights aloft over southwestern Canada and the northwestern U.S. is forecast to eject from the Rockies and into the central and northern Plains late this week. A low- and midlevel baroclinic zone will be in place across the region in advance of that wave and is apt to serve as a focus for frontogenesis and potentially-enhanced precipitation rates somewhere in the region as the stronger forcing for ascent and related thermal advection preceding the ejecting shortwave trough occurs late Wednesday night and Thursday. Broader ascent on isentropic surfaces and related to DCVA will likely produce at least light snow deeper into the cold sector further northwest Thursday into Thursday night, as well. However, there is considerable spread in deterministic and ensemble guidance with the speed and amplitude of the upper-level shortwave and its related forcing for ascent, with the 12 UTC GFS and GEFS the most suppressed with their QPF signal, focusing most of the snow potential in SD and the Red River valley. In contrast, the 12 UTC ECMWF and its most recently-available ensemble cycle focus accumulating snowfall across more of central ND. Notably, a gradual shift northwest in many of the NBM and WPC super ensemble members driven by those ECMWF ensemble members in particular does favor higher probabilities of 4+ inches of snow over more of central ND than earlier forecasts. Again, uncertainty is relatively large, but given the tilt in the ensembles and knowledge that the GFS and its ensemble members can tend to be too progressive, theres certainly an increasing potential for accumulating snowfall even in south central ND along with the James River valley. Given current uncertainty and a blend-driven signal that most areas would likely fall into advisory-level snow, outside of mesoscale banding near frontogenesis which could ultimately yield a smaller area of warning-level snow, confidence in impacts was not quite high enough to post headlines yet. Finally, note that we are also carrying a mix of precipitation types including a chance of freezing rain along the low- and midlevel baroclinic zone, notably in the James River valley, Wednesday night and Thursday. Thereafter, a gradual warming trend is expected this weekend and especially into early next week with NBM-based forecast highs back into the 50s F by Monday and Tuesday. Broad and mean cyclonic flow supports low-end precipitation chances during much of that period, too, with some potential diurnal enhancement as seasonally-steep lapse rates likely to be present during the afternoon hours each day beneath lingering cold air aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 A complex weather situation is in store for western/central North Dakota this TAF period. A line of showers/thunderstorms will move through KMOT-KBIS early in the TAF period but should diminish as the evening moves on. Snow is expected to develop after 06Z in the west, with periods of heavy snow possible at KXWA after 10Z and possibly KMOT after 12Z. Opted to keep -SN for now since the areal coverage of heavier snow is uncertain and volatile in the forecast. MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to develop across the west with this system. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ001>004-009>011-017. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...ZH LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...AE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Aloft: Low-amplitude anticyclonic flow was over NEB/KS in the wake of a trof over the Ern USA. A shrtwv ridge will become better defined over the rgn tonight as a broad potent trof remains over the NW USA. The ridge will move E of the rgn tomorrow with SW flow developing. Surface: 1008 mb low pres was near Lk Winnipeg. A cool front extended SW from this low into WY. A warm front has developed and extended from near RAP down into S-cntrl NEB. High pres was over the Srn Plns. The cool front and low will move very little until a stronger cold front drops out of SW Canada tomorrow and gives the initial front a shove to the SE. It will enter the panhandle Wed afternoon. The warm front will advance acrs the CWA this afternoon. Therefore...the CWA will remain in the warm sector thru at least 00Z/Thu. Tonight: Variable between mostly cldy and mostly clr. There is a lot of altocu moving in...and fcst soundings suggest mid-lvl instability will cont to support alto and possibly some accas. Lows 10-15F above normal. Wed: Mostly sunny in the morning...but a high cirrostratus shield will gradually overtake the area from the SW. Expect skies to turn partly sunny or mostly cldy in the afternoon. Should become thicker as the afternoon progresses...espcly S 1/2. Despite that...a very warm day with temps 15F above normal. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 Aloft: The longwave flow thru next`s the same old story we`ve been telling since mid Nov. Wrn trof/Ern ridge. I don`t know if I`ve ever seen a longwave pattern this persistent during the cool season over the CONUS in my entire career 20+ yr career. This is now 4.5 months. WSW or SW flow will cont to dominate over NEB/KS. Wed a shrtwv trof will be rotating thru the base of the NW USA trof. It will circulate into the Nrn Plns thru Fri...but still lower the heights a bit here. Other than perturbations of significance until the Wrn trof temporarily dislodges and heads E toward the rgn next Tue. Surface: The cold front referenced above will slide thru the CWA Thu...with Canadian high pres sinking into the Nrn Plns Fri. This high will slowly drift E of the Nrn/Cntrl Plns Sat. Return flow will dvlp and strengthen Sun with pres beginning to fall in the lee of the Rckys. Low pres will then organize over CO Mon with a strong warm front fcst to form and lift NE acrs the CWA Mon afternoon. The CO low is fcst to move NE acrs the CWA Mon night with its wk cool front following in trail Tue. Temps: Thu will be a transition day with temps cooler than Wed. Fri will be the coolest day of the next 7. Temps will rebound this wknd and will be back to warmer than normal Sun...with much warmer than normal temps Mon-Tue. Precip: No systems to bring big precip totals...but some minor amts will be psbl. A few shwrs...possibly with some rumbles of thunder...could move in N of I-80 Wed eve. Low stratus then invades behind the cool front. With all the SW winds...mid-lvl mstr will be hard to come by. Believe any precip that might fall from late Wed night thru Thu night will be light drzl. Temps might become just cold enough for some light frzg drzl late Thu night into Fri AM. Only the GFS suggests some possibility for seeder- feeder processes Thu night into Fri...with mid-lvl generated ice crystals possible generating a touch of very light snow. The fcst has a slight chance of shwrs/tstms Sun night into Mon. This looks doubtful to me as it`s based primarily on GFS QPF. But if you look at the soundings...they`re capped. Sfc dwpts in the 50s are fcst to advect N into the area...underneath the EML. The 12Z EC has a bullseye of QPF over the Sandhills Sun night... generated by WAA associated with the low-lvl jet.`s an outlier and doesn`t have ensemble support. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday) Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the period. Main thing to watch for is LLWS tonight, in the ball park of 45-50 kts, that could last through the early morning hours tomorrow until daytime mixing kicks in. Model soundings show mixing to around 850 mb is possible tomorrow afternoon, which could bring gusts to around 20 mph down to the sfc. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelley LONG TERM...Kelley AVIATION...Shawkey
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
827 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .DISCUSSION...The latest radar image shows most returns in northern Jackson and eastern Douglas County and showers are moving from west to east in a strong moist westerly flow. The current HRRR high res short range guidance shows showers decreasing in coverage tonight with the best chance staying north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades. Made some adjustments to the forecast to account for this and also reduce QPF for the overnight period. Shower activity should be at a relative min Wednesday morning, then increasing Wednesday afternoon as another shortwave rounding the base of an upper low moves into the area in combination with max heating making the atmosphere more unstable. Showers will diminish and end Wednesday night and if there`s enough clearing, temperatures could drop near or below freezing near and at the coast and Umpqua Basin. If this remains the case, then a frost advisory and/or freeze warning may need to be issued. Stay tuned for that. && .AVIATION...For the 01/00Z TAF Cycle...From the Cascades west...Areas of MVFR cigs in low clouds and showers with higher terrain obscured will persist through Wednesday evening. East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday evening with isolated showers and some obscuration of higher terrain. Winds will be gusty, especially in the afternoons and evenings. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday 31 March 2020...Northwest swell is now subsiding, but steep seas will persist through tonight. A weak front will move onshore Wednesday, then high pressure will build Thursday and weaken Friday. Seas will continue to subside through Friday night, but winds may be gusty in the afternoons and evening Wednesday and Thursday, especially south of Cape Blanco. The next front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday, and it will be followed by several weak systems through the weekend. Winds and seas will increase during this time, but will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020/ DISCUSSION...The forecast area will remain under northwest flow aloft for the next week. The trough currently producing showers today will slowly pass over the region tonight into tomorrow, with the trough axis not passing overhead until tomorrow afternoon. Until then, showers will be ongoing across the forecast area, especially over higher terrain and along north-to-south running mountains. Snow levels around 3000 feet this afternoon will drop to around 1500 feet tonight, meaning some light snow flurries are possible in the valleys, but again, most activity will remain relegated to the mountains, so no significant accumulations or major impacts are expected. As the trough axis passes overhead tomorrow afternoon, there is a chance for some isolated thunder as instability develops between the sun-warmed lower levels and the much colder air aloft, but we suspect most, if not all, precipitation will remain as run-of- the- mill spring showers, with some graupel or even small hail possible in the stronger cells. Overall, precipitation should taper off and diminish by evening, with only very spotty showers expected tomorrow night. Thursday into Friday we`ll see an overall break in the precipitation except for spits and sprinkles mainly in the coastal counties inland into Douglas County as upper level ridging builds in behind the departing trough. Mornings are likely to be chilly for this time of the year- probably around 5-10 degrees below the 1981-2010 averages. Thus, we could see some frost near the coast and freezing temperatures for many inland locations where there are enough breaks in the cloud cover. Up until Friday night, the models are in superb agreement, and confidence is pretty high. However, from that point on, there is a wide divergence of solution, likely resulting from the uncertainties inherent with a large cut-off low over the north central Pacific. While the general pattern of wet and active weather is clear across ensembles, the question of timing and track of the expected systems remains uncertain. For now, will lean on a blend of solutions, with bring a smaller-scale, but wet, system through the area Friday night into Saturday, followed by a larger system digging into the region Saturday night and Sunday. While not particularly exciting in terms of weather, these storms will bring us a much needed bump in precipitation, with showers likely continuing into early next week. After a brief period of ridging Monday night and Tuesday, another system may arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday, but confidence is much too low to hone in on any details beyond this weekend until model spread improves. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
854 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system crossing off the Carolina coast tonight is expected to meander off the eastern seaboard through the rest of the week. However, high pressure from the west is anticipated to build slowly across our region through Saturday, keeping our region mostly dry through this period. A weak cold front is expected to cross the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 9 pm update: Very little changes to going forecast, maintained the tight PoP gradient tonight over southern Delmarva to account for northern edge of precip. shield associated with the deepening low off the Carolina coast. Otherwise for most of the area, expecting a dry and cloudy night with lows largely in the upper 30s. Previous discussion: A potent and progressive mid-level wave is making its way across the southeastern US. The main vorticity lobe associated with this wave will pass just to the south of the forecast area overnight. At the surface, a strengthening area of low pressure will move up the Carolina coast this evening and rapidly intensify (perhaps as low as 980 mb) as it continues offshore overnight. As the low draws a bit farther north and east, the pressure gradient will increase particularly across southern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Winds will shift from easterly to northeasterly and increase along the coast to 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph. The main axis of precipitation associated with this system is forecast to remain mostly to our south, however the shield of stratiform precip (in the form of rain) may nudge just across our southern-most areas of Delmarva, mainly across Talbot, Caroline, and Sussex Counties, where I`ve introduced some low end likely PoPs overnight. Otherwise, the area will remain mostly dry and overcast overnight. Expect low temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough axis will pivot across the area on Wednesday as a strong surface low continues pushing offshore from the North Carolina coast. Weak high pressure will begin to build toward the end of the day. As heights begin to increase toward the latter half of the day with the system departing, clouds should begin to break up throughout the day. The HRRR indicates some showers across the area during the afternoon, but this seems to be an outlier even among other CAMs, so I`ve left the forecast dry. It`ll be a breezy start to the day along and south of the I-95 corridor with higher winds and gusts along coastal areas (see Near Term discussion). Winds will subside later in the day as the surface low moves farther away from the East Coast. Expect high temperatures mainly in the lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overview: No significant concerns in the long term until we get to early next week, when another cold front approaches our region. Details: Thursday through Saturday...A mid level ridge is expected to build from the southern Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region starting mid week. The air mass should build slowly eastward with the axis of the ridge passing off the coast on Saturday. The surface low that will be crossing off the Carolina coast tonight is expected to lift north and meander just off the eastern seaboard through the week, even retrograding Thursday into Friday. The proximity of this low will keep a relatively tight pressure gradient over our region Thursday and Friday, and consequently breezy conditions are expected to continue. Sunday and Monday...The weak cold front is still expected to approach and cross our region late this weekend. In the mid and upper levels, there is a weak short wave trough which will be crossing at the same time. With relatively weak support, it doesn`t look like a significant precipitation event. The only change from yesterday is it looks like the guidance is trending later with the arrival of the front, now expected to cross our region Sunday night, which seems like a reasonable trend given how stagnant the overall pattern will be through the week. Tuesday...A mid level ridge may try to build in behind the cold front, but there is a lot of uncertainty given the lack of any well defined features early next week. Thus, have stayed close to the previous forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Initially MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR generally in the 01-03Z. Can`t rule out periods of MVFR overnight but confidence is too low to make prevailing. Initially easterly winds will increase from 5-10 kts and shift northeasterly to around 10-15 kts after 06Z. Gusts of 20-25 kts possible mainly PHL and south toward the coast. Moderate confidence. Wednesday... VFR. Winds initially northeasterly will gradually shift northerly then northwesterly between 18-21Z. High confidence. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt with gusts near 25 kt during the day Thursday. Moderate confidence. Friday...Mostly VFR conditions expected, although there is a chance for MVFR ceilings to develop. Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots, becoming northeast. Moderate confidence. Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions expected with light and variable winds. Moderate confidence. Sunday...Starting with VFR conditions, though ceilings could lower to MVFR through the day. Southerly and southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 kt. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Conditions will quickly deteriorate later this evening into the overnight with Small Craft Advisory criteria expected area wide overnight along with winds increasing with gusts of 35-40 kts for the southern-most ocean zones. Expect seas of 6-9 feet or higher across the southern ocean zones as well. Have upgraded the SCA to a Gale Warning for the impacted areas. Winds and seas are forecast to peak around daybreak Wednesday then slowly diminish throughout the day. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions are expected. On Thursday, there may be a brief period of gale force gusts on the Delaware and southern New Jersey coastal waters, but confidence in this is low at this time. Friday through Sunday...SCA conditions are expected, primarily on the coastal waters due to elevated seas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The strengthening East to Northeast flow across the waters this evening and overnight will create favorable conditions for the enhancement of the tides the next few cycles. We have updated the TWL forecasts early this afternoon to catch the latest guidance and show these updated trends. It appears the the present tide cycle up Delaware Bay may affect Reedy Point with that site reaching the `low- end` range minor flooding. The overnight cycle (after midnight) could affect more (DE and srn NJ) coastal and Delaware Bay sites with action stage to possibly low end minor flooding. At this point, an advisory doesn`t appear warranted, but we will continue to monitor overnight in case anything changes. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>452. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ453>455. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...Carr/Staarmann Short Term...Staarmann Long Term...Johnson Aviation...Carr/Johnson/Staarmann Marine...Johnson/Staarmann Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .AVIATION... VFR/MVFR cigs expected through 09Z as a cold front starts to push through. SHRA and VCTS is also expected through 09Z with northern terminals seeing the conditions before southern ones. VFR conditions are expected after that. Winds will remain gusty and out the SW through the rest of the overnight period. Gusts will be around the 20 to 25 knot range. Winds will then shift to the NW and calm down slightly though the day. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 223 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020/ DISCUSSION... The upper ridge that has been so dominant over Florida the past couple of weeks has flattened out and shifted south. Farther to the northwest, a mid-upper level trough digs south through the Mississippi River Valley. This trough will move eastward over the next 24-36 hours lending support to the next low pressure system expected to influence the weather over Florida later this evening into Wednesday morning. The trough exits into the Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon, which will allow for ridging over the central U.S. to progress eastward through the end of the week and into the weekend. On the surface, an area of low pressure is moving through MS/GA with a cold front extending southwest through southern AL/GA and Florida panhandle. Radar imagery over that region is showing embedded thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front that will continue moving east through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest HRRR guidance has the frontal bands making landfall along the Nature coast between 22-00Z, then moving southeast over Tampa Bay between 01-03Z, and then over southwest Florida around 06Z. Just as we`re seeing on radar now, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible with some gusty winds and heavy downpours. This will be a fairly short event with clearing expected by mid-morning on Wednesday. High pressure builds back in behind this front, bringing pleasant weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. We will get a very brief shot of cooler air on Wednesday and Thursday with closer to seasonal highs on Wednesday and Thursday and even some 50`s for early Thursday morning. This cool down doesn`t last long as we will be back in a warming trend once again by the weekend and into next week. MARINE... High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida. Interactions between this high pressure and an approaching cold front from the northwest will produce increasing southwest winds and seas over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. This has warranted the issuance of a SCA for all eastern gulf coast waters through Wednesday afternoon and high risk of rip currents advisory at local beaches through Wednesday evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected later this evening into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning can be expected in the vicinity of these storms. High pressure builds in behind this front on Wednesday and will cause a shift in winds to the N-NW then E and decreasing through the end of the week. After this front moves through, the winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas 3 feet or less into the weekend. No other marine impacts expected. FIRE WEATHER... An approaching cold front will bring gusty 20 foot and transport winds with high dispersions along with showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. Drier and cooler air begins to filter in behind this front on Wednesday and Thursday with some critically low RH values. However winds are expected to stay light precluding any red flag concerns. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 63 75 57 80 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 69 81 58 83 / 60 0 0 0 GIF 60 77 54 81 / 60 0 0 0 SRQ 66 76 57 81 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 56 74 51 81 / 60 0 0 0 SPG 65 76 59 80 / 50 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$