Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Convection continues, though drastically decreased in intensity,
along the low-level convergence boundary over central North
Dakota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the night across the central portions of the state.
Further west, a potent upper level jet is expected to nose over
the western Dakotas tonight, with northwest North Dakota under the
increasingly divergent left exit region. Short-term guidance
continues to show a mesoscale banding potential as 850-700mb
frontogenesis increases early Wednesday morning amid a widespread
area of negative EPV. No changes were made to the going headlines
and snowfall totals but this will need to be monitored as a narrow
band of greater snowfall rates could develop through the morning
UPDATE Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
This evening, a line of convection was stretching from
Renville/Bottineau through Morton county into Grant county. On
the southern end, a storm with supercell characteristics has
developed around the 00Z hour where there has been a lack of
further southward convective initiation. South-end convection will
continue to tap into an atmosphere of modest instability and
deep layer shear but effective SRH values of 150 to near 200
m2/s2. 00Z KBIS observed sounding shows a capping inversion at
760mb, which indicates the eastward progression of a potentially
severe risk should be limited to the next couple hours. Until
then, steep mid-level lapse rates (measured by KBIS sounding at 8
C/km) and more than enough deep layer sheer will continue the
severe hail threat through southern Morton county in the short-
term. With the effective storm-relative helicity values and the
supercell storm type, this would normally carry a tornado risk as
well. But with the inversion on the KBIS sounding and an
increasingly decoupled boundary layer after sunset, this risk
should be well mitigated.
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Thunderstorms this afternoon across the central and the potential
for heavy snowfall across the northwest and north central tonight
and tomorrow highlight the short term forecast challenges.
A potent upper level shortwave will approach the western part of
the state tonight. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough and
following cold front will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and this evening. The latest
iterations of the RAP continue to advertise 0-1 km MLCAPE values
of 500 to 1200 J/kg along and ahead of these boundaries through
the evening. CAMs have been consistent in developing a line of
showers and storms from the Canadian Border to the South Dakota
border, just west of the Missouri River in the 20z to 22z time
frame. With deep layer shear values only forecast to range from 20
to 35 knots, severe weather is not anticipated but stronger cores
may produce some small hail and gusty winds. As storms move to
the east, they will begin to diminish with the loss of diurnal
heating but showers may stick around for a few hours.
Behind the front, the approaching shortwave and strong vort max
will pivot and nudge its way into the western part of the state
tonight, bringing with it plenty of upper level forcing and cold
air advection. The NAM and GFS both advertise the potential for
some heavy banded snow somewhere across the northwest and/or the
north central. Strong low to mid level frontogenesis is forecast
to be co-located with strong upper level Q-vector divergence.
Decent lapse rates and strong omega in the dendritic growth zone
also appear to be likely along the path of a 700 mb low that
closes off, potentially adding a convective element to the snow.
The area of heaviest snow will likely be dependent on where this
low ends up tracking. Because of this signal, we elected to issue
a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the northwest and north
central from 06z Wednesday through 00z Thursday. A wide swath of
3 to 6 inch snow accumulation looks reasonable in the Advisory
area with locally higher amounts possible wherever that heavier
band sets up. The timing of the heaviest snow will likely be from
Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours.
The 700 mb low then moves quickly north into western Manitoba
with snow diminishing across the north central by the early
evening hours on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
The focus in the long term is the potential for accumulating
snowfall late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Uncertainty
in exact snowfall amounts remains high in this time period, but
confidence in at least some snow falling over much of southern ND
including the James River valley is high enough to support 50 to
80 percent snow chances centered on the daytime hours Thursday.
Synoptically, a basal shortwave trough embedded within a broader
region of low heights aloft over southwestern Canada and the
northwestern U.S. is forecast to eject from the Rockies and into
the central and northern Plains late this week. A low- and
midlevel baroclinic zone will be in place across the region in
advance of that wave and is apt to serve as a focus for
frontogenesis and potentially-enhanced precipitation rates
somewhere in the region as the stronger forcing for ascent and
related thermal advection preceding the ejecting shortwave trough
occurs late Wednesday night and Thursday. Broader ascent on
isentropic surfaces and related to DCVA will likely produce at
least light snow deeper into the cold sector further northwest
Thursday into Thursday night, as well. However, there is
considerable spread in deterministic and ensemble guidance with
the speed and amplitude of the upper-level shortwave and its
related forcing for ascent, with the 12 UTC GFS and GEFS the most
suppressed with their QPF signal, focusing most of the snow
potential in SD and the Red River valley. In contrast, the 12 UTC
ECMWF and its most recently-available ensemble cycle focus
accumulating snowfall across more of central ND.
Notably, a gradual shift northwest in many of the NBM and WPC
super ensemble members driven by those ECMWF ensemble members
in particular does favor higher probabilities of 4+ inches of
snow over more of central ND than earlier forecasts. Again,
uncertainty is relatively large, but given the tilt in the
ensembles and knowledge that the GFS and its ensemble members can
tend to be too progressive, theres certainly an increasing
potential for accumulating snowfall even in south central ND along
with the James River valley. Given current uncertainty and a
blend-driven signal that most areas would likely fall into
advisory-level snow, outside of mesoscale banding near
frontogenesis which could ultimately yield a smaller area of
warning-level snow, confidence in impacts was not quite high
enough to post headlines yet. Finally, note that we are also
carrying a mix of precipitation types including a chance of
freezing rain along the low- and midlevel baroclinic zone, notably
in the James River valley, Wednesday night and Thursday.
Thereafter, a gradual warming trend is expected this weekend and
especially into early next week with NBM-based forecast highs back
into the 50s F by Monday and Tuesday. Broad and mean cyclonic
flow supports low-end precipitation chances during much of that
period, too, with some potential diurnal enhancement as
seasonally-steep lapse rates likely to be present during the
afternoon hours each day beneath lingering cold air aloft.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
A complex weather situation is in store for western/central North
Dakota this TAF period. A line of showers/thunderstorms will move
through KMOT-KBIS early in the TAF period but should diminish as
the evening moves on. Snow is expected to develop after 06Z in the
west, with periods of heavy snow possible at KXWA after 10Z and
possibly KMOT after 12Z. Opted to keep -SN for now since the areal
coverage of heavier snow is uncertain and volatile in the
forecast. MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to develop across the west
with this system.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NDZ001>004-009>011-017.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
653 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Aloft: Low-amplitude anticyclonic flow was over NEB/KS in the
wake of a trof over the Ern USA. A shrtwv ridge will become better
defined over the rgn tonight as a broad potent trof remains over
the NW USA. The ridge will move E of the rgn tomorrow with SW flow
Surface: 1008 mb low pres was near Lk Winnipeg. A cool front
extended SW from this low into WY. A warm front has developed and
extended from near RAP down into S-cntrl NEB. High pres was over
the Srn Plns. The cool front and low will move very little until a
stronger cold front drops out of SW Canada tomorrow and gives the
initial front a shove to the SE. It will enter the panhandle Wed
afternoon. The warm front will advance acrs the CWA this
afternoon. Therefore...the CWA will remain in the warm sector thru
at least 00Z/Thu.
Tonight: Variable between mostly cldy and mostly clr. There is a
lot of altocu moving in...and fcst soundings suggest mid-lvl
instability will cont to support alto and possibly some accas.
Lows 10-15F above normal.
Wed: Mostly sunny in the morning...but a high cirrostratus shield
will gradually overtake the area from the SW. Expect skies to
turn partly sunny or mostly cldy in the afternoon. Should become
thicker as the afternoon progresses...espcly S 1/2. Despite
that...a very warm day with temps 15F above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Aloft: The longwave flow thru next Tue...it`s the same old story
we`ve been telling since mid Nov. Wrn trof/Ern ridge. I don`t know
if I`ve ever seen a longwave pattern this persistent during the
cool season over the CONUS in my entire career 20+ yr career. This
is now 4.5 months. WSW or SW flow will cont to dominate over
Wed a shrtwv trof will be rotating thru the base of the NW USA
trof. It will circulate into the Nrn Plns thru Fri...but still
lower the heights a bit here. Other than that...no perturbations
of significance until the Wrn trof temporarily dislodges and
heads E toward the rgn next Tue.
Surface: The cold front referenced above will slide thru the CWA
Thu...with Canadian high pres sinking into the Nrn Plns Fri. This
high will slowly drift E of the Nrn/Cntrl Plns Sat. Return flow
will dvlp and strengthen Sun with pres beginning to fall in the
lee of the Rckys. Low pres will then organize over CO Mon with a
strong warm front fcst to form and lift NE acrs the CWA Mon
afternoon. The CO low is fcst to move NE acrs the CWA Mon night
with its wk cool front following in trail Tue.
Temps: Thu will be a transition day with temps cooler than Wed.
Fri will be the coolest day of the next 7. Temps will rebound this
wknd and will be back to warmer than normal Sun...with much
warmer than normal temps Mon-Tue.
Precip: No systems to bring big precip totals...but some minor
amts will be psbl. A few shwrs...possibly with some rumbles of
thunder...could move in N of I-80 Wed eve. Low stratus then
invades behind the cool front. With all the SW winds...mid-lvl
mstr will be hard to come by. Believe any precip that might fall
from late Wed night thru Thu night will be light drzl. Temps might
become just cold enough for some light frzg drzl late Thu night
into Fri AM. Only the GFS suggests some possibility for seeder-
feeder processes Thu night into Fri...with mid-lvl generated ice
crystals possible generating a touch of very light snow.
The fcst has a slight chance of shwrs/tstms Sun night into Mon.
This looks doubtful to me as it`s based primarily on GFS QPF. But
if you look at the soundings...they`re capped. Sfc dwpts in the
50s are fcst to advect N into the area...underneath the EML. The
12Z EC has a bullseye of QPF over the Sandhills Sun night...
generated by WAA associated with the low-lvl jet. However...it`s
an outlier and doesn`t have ensemble support.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the
period. Main thing to watch for is LLWS tonight, in the ball park
of 45-50 kts, that could last through the early morning hours
tomorrow until daytime mixing kicks in. Model soundings show
mixing to around 850 mb is possible tomorrow afternoon, which
could bring gusts to around 20 mph down to the sfc.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
827 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020
.DISCUSSION...The latest radar image shows most returns in northern
Jackson and eastern Douglas County and showers are moving from
west to east in a strong moist westerly flow. The current HRRR
high res short range guidance shows showers decreasing in coverage
tonight with the best chance staying north of the Umpqua Divide
and northern Cascades. Made some adjustments to the forecast to
account for this and also reduce QPF for the overnight period.
Shower activity should be at a relative min Wednesday morning, then
increasing Wednesday afternoon as another shortwave rounding the
base of an upper low moves into the area in combination with max
heating making the atmosphere more unstable. Showers will diminish
and end Wednesday night and if there`s enough clearing, temperatures
could drop near or below freezing near and at the coast and Umpqua
Basin. If this remains the case, then a frost advisory and/or freeze
warning may need to be issued. Stay tuned for that.
.AVIATION...For the 01/00Z TAF Cycle...From the Cascades
west...Areas of MVFR cigs in low clouds and showers with higher
terrain obscured will persist through Wednesday evening.
East of the Cascades...VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday
evening with isolated showers and some obscuration of higher
terrain. Winds will be gusty, especially in the afternoons and
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Tuesday 31 March 2020...Northwest
swell is now subsiding, but steep seas will persist through tonight.
A weak front will move onshore Wednesday, then high pressure will
build Thursday and weaken Friday. Seas will continue to subside
through Friday night, but winds may be gusty in the afternoons and
evening Wednesday and Thursday, especially south of Cape Blanco. The
next front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday, and it will
be followed by several weak systems through the weekend. Winds and
seas will increase during this time, but will likely remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020/
DISCUSSION...The forecast area will remain under northwest flow
aloft for the next week. The trough currently producing showers
today will slowly pass over the region tonight into tomorrow, with
the trough axis not passing overhead until tomorrow afternoon.
Until then, showers will be ongoing across the forecast area,
especially over higher terrain and along north-to-south running
mountains. Snow levels around 3000 feet this afternoon will drop
to around 1500 feet tonight, meaning some light snow flurries are
possible in the valleys, but again, most activity will remain
relegated to the mountains, so no significant accumulations or
major impacts are expected.
As the trough axis passes overhead tomorrow afternoon, there is a
chance for some isolated thunder as instability develops between
the sun-warmed lower levels and the much colder air aloft, but we
suspect most, if not all, precipitation will remain as run-of-
the- mill spring showers, with some graupel or even small hail
possible in the stronger cells. Overall, precipitation should
taper off and diminish by evening, with only very spotty showers
expected tomorrow night.
Thursday into Friday we`ll see an overall break in the
precipitation except for spits and sprinkles mainly in the coastal
counties inland into Douglas County as upper level ridging builds
in behind the departing trough. Mornings are likely to be chilly
for this time of the year- probably around 5-10 degrees below the
1981-2010 averages. Thus, we could see some frost near the coast
and freezing temperatures for many inland locations where there
are enough breaks in the cloud cover.
Up until Friday night, the models are in superb agreement, and
confidence is pretty high. However, from that point on, there is a
wide divergence of solution, likely resulting from the
uncertainties inherent with a large cut-off low over the north
central Pacific. While the general pattern of wet and active
weather is clear across ensembles, the question of timing and
track of the expected systems remains uncertain. For now, will
lean on a blend of solutions, with bring a smaller-scale, but
wet, system through the area Friday night into Saturday, followed
by a larger system digging into the region Saturday night and
Sunday. While not particularly exciting in terms of weather, these
storms will bring us a much needed bump in precipitation, with
showers likely continuing into early next week. After a brief
period of ridging Monday night and Tuesday, another system may
arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday, but confidence is much too low
to hone in on any details beyond this weekend until model spread
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
854 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020
A low pressure system crossing off the Carolina coast tonight is
expected to meander off the eastern seaboard through the rest of
the week. However, high pressure from the west is anticipated to
build slowly across our region through Saturday, keeping our region
mostly dry through this period. A weak cold front is expected to
cross the region Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
9 pm update: Very little changes to going forecast, maintained the
tight PoP gradient tonight over southern Delmarva to account
for northern edge of precip. shield associated with the
deepening low off the Carolina coast. Otherwise for most of the
area, expecting a dry and cloudy night with lows largely in the
A potent and progressive mid-level wave is making its way
across the southeastern US. The main vorticity lobe associated
with this wave will pass just to the south of the forecast area
overnight. At the surface, a strengthening area of low pressure
will move up the Carolina coast this evening and rapidly
intensify (perhaps as low as 980 mb) as it continues offshore
overnight. As the low draws a bit farther north and east, the
pressure gradient will increase particularly across southern
Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Winds will shift from easterly
to northeasterly and increase along the coast to 15-25 mph with
gusts of 35-40 mph.
The main axis of precipitation associated with this system is
forecast to remain mostly to our south, however the shield of
stratiform precip (in the form of rain) may nudge just across our
southern-most areas of Delmarva, mainly across Talbot, Caroline, and
Sussex Counties, where I`ve introduced some low end likely PoPs
overnight. Otherwise, the area will remain mostly dry and overcast
overnight. Expect low temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
An upper trough axis will pivot across the area on Wednesday as a
strong surface low continues pushing offshore from the North
Carolina coast. Weak high pressure will begin to build toward the
end of the day. As heights begin to increase toward the latter half
of the day with the system departing, clouds should begin to break
up throughout the day. The HRRR indicates some showers across the
area during the afternoon, but this seems to be an outlier even
among other CAMs, so I`ve left the forecast dry. It`ll be a breezy
start to the day along and south of the I-95 corridor with higher
winds and gusts along coastal areas (see Near Term discussion).
Winds will subside later in the day as the surface low moves farther
away from the East Coast. Expect high temperatures mainly in the
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overview: No significant concerns in the long term until we get to
early next week, when another cold front approaches our region.
Thursday through Saturday...A mid level ridge is expected to build
from the southern Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region
starting mid week. The air mass should build slowly eastward with
the axis of the ridge passing off the coast on Saturday. The surface
low that will be crossing off the Carolina coast tonight is expected
to lift north and meander just off the eastern seaboard through the
week, even retrograding Thursday into Friday. The proximity of this
low will keep a relatively tight pressure gradient over our region
Thursday and Friday, and consequently breezy conditions are expected
Sunday and Monday...The weak cold front is still expected to
approach and cross our region late this weekend. In the mid and
upper levels, there is a weak short wave trough which will be
crossing at the same time. With relatively weak support, it doesn`t
look like a significant precipitation event. The only change from
yesterday is it looks like the guidance is trending later with the
arrival of the front, now expected to cross our region Sunday night,
which seems like a reasonable trend given how stagnant the overall
pattern will be through the week.
Tuesday...A mid level ridge may try to build in behind the cold
front, but there is a lot of uncertainty given the lack of any well
defined features early next week. Thus, have stayed close to the
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...Initially MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR generally in
the 01-03Z. Can`t rule out periods of MVFR overnight but
confidence is too low to make prevailing. Initially easterly
winds will increase from 5-10 kts and shift northeasterly to
around 10-15 kts after 06Z. Gusts of 20-25 kts possible mainly
PHL and south toward the coast. Moderate confidence.
Wednesday... VFR. Winds initially northeasterly will gradually shift
northerly then northwesterly between 18-21Z. High confidence.
Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mostly VFR conditions
expected. Northwest wind 10 to 20 kt with gusts near 25 kt
during the day Thursday. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Mostly VFR conditions expected, although there is a chance
for MVFR ceilings to develop. Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots,
becoming northeast. Moderate confidence.
Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions expected with light and variable
winds. Moderate confidence.
Sunday...Starting with VFR conditions, though ceilings could lower
to MVFR through the day. Southerly and southwesterly winds of 5 to
10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Conditions will quickly deteriorate later this evening into the
overnight with Small Craft Advisory criteria expected area wide
overnight along with winds increasing with gusts of 35-40 kts for
the southern-most ocean zones. Expect seas of 6-9 feet or higher
across the southern ocean zones as well. Have upgraded the SCA to a
Gale Warning for the impacted areas. Winds and seas are forecast to
peak around daybreak Wednesday then slowly diminish throughout the
Wednesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions are
expected. On Thursday, there may be a brief period of gale force
gusts on the Delaware and southern New Jersey coastal waters, but
confidence in this is low at this time.
Friday through Sunday...SCA conditions are expected, primarily on
the coastal waters due to elevated seas.
The strengthening East to Northeast flow across the waters this
evening and overnight will create favorable conditions for the
enhancement of the tides the next few cycles. We have updated the
TWL forecasts early this afternoon to catch the latest guidance and
show these updated trends. It appears the the present tide cycle up
Delaware Bay may affect Reedy Point with that site reaching the `low-
end` range minor flooding. The overnight cycle (after midnight)
could affect more (DE and srn NJ) coastal and Delaware Bay sites
with action stage to possibly low end minor flooding. At this point,
an advisory doesn`t appear warranted, but we will continue to
monitor overnight in case anything changes.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>452.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ453>455.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
756 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020
VFR/MVFR cigs expected through 09Z as a cold front starts to push
through. SHRA and VCTS is also expected through 09Z with northern
terminals seeing the conditions before southern ones. VFR
conditions are expected after that. Winds will remain gusty and
out the SW through the rest of the overnight period. Gusts will
be around the 20 to 25 knot range. Winds will then shift to the
NW and calm down slightly though the day.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 223 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020/
The upper ridge that has been so dominant over Florida the past
couple of weeks has flattened out and shifted south. Farther to the
northwest, a mid-upper level trough digs south through the
Mississippi River Valley. This trough will move eastward over the
next 24-36 hours lending support to the next low pressure system
expected to influence the weather over Florida later this evening
into Wednesday morning. The trough exits into the Atlantic by
Wednesday afternoon, which will allow for ridging over the central
U.S. to progress eastward through the end of the week and into the
On the surface, an area of low pressure is moving through MS/GA with
a cold front extending southwest through southern AL/GA and Florida
panhandle. Radar imagery over that region is showing embedded
thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front that will continue
moving east through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest
HRRR guidance has the frontal bands making landfall along the Nature
coast between 22-00Z, then moving southeast over Tampa Bay between
01-03Z, and then over southwest Florida around 06Z. Just as we`re
seeing on radar now, some embedded thunderstorms will be possible
with some gusty winds and heavy downpours. This will be a fairly
short event with clearing expected by mid-morning on Wednesday.
High pressure builds back in behind this front, bringing pleasant
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. We will
get a very brief shot of cooler air on Wednesday and Thursday with
closer to seasonal highs on Wednesday and Thursday and even some
50`s for early Thursday morning. This cool down doesn`t last long as
we will be back in a warming trend once again by the weekend and
into next week.
High pressure continues to ridge over southern Florida. Interactions
between this high pressure and an approaching cold front from the
northwest will produce increasing southwest winds and seas over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday afternoon. This has
warranted the issuance of a SCA for all eastern gulf coast waters
through Wednesday afternoon and high risk of rip currents advisory
at local beaches through Wednesday evening. Rain showers and
thunderstorms can be expected later this evening into Wednesday
morning. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning can be
expected in the vicinity of these storms. High pressure builds in
behind this front on Wednesday and will cause a shift in winds to
the N-NW then E and decreasing through the end of the week. After
this front moves through, the winds will remain less than 15 knots
and seas 3 feet or less into the weekend. No other marine impacts
An approaching cold front will bring gusty 20 foot and transport
winds with high dispersions along with showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. Drier and cooler air
begins to filter in behind this front on Wednesday and Thursday with
some critically low RH values. However winds are expected to stay
light precluding any red flag concerns.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 63 75 57 80 / 50 0 0 0
FMY 69 81 58 83 / 60 0 0 0
GIF 60 77 54 81 / 60 0 0 0
SRQ 66 76 57 81 / 50 0 0 0
BKV 56 74 51 81 / 60 0 0 0
SPG 65 76 59 80 / 50 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal
Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20
to 60 NM.