Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/26/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1027 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Friday. Low
pressure tracks to our north on Friday, then a backdoor cold
front will cross part of the area Friday night before stalling
across the area on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1025 PM EDT Wednesday...
Sfc high pressure has begun to build into the region late this
evening as deepening low pressure moves further out to sea.
Still plentiful low-level moisture beneath the high which will
allow for areas of light rain/drizzle for portions of eastern
VA/NE NC through 06z. Some decrease in cloud cover is expected
across the NE FA by early Thursday morning, while remaining
mostly cloudy/overcast elsewhere. Patchy fog over the Piedmont.
Lows from the up 30s NW to the mid 40s SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...
High pressure builds over the area on Thu before moving offshore by
Thu evening. Low clouds may be slow to erode Thu AM, but skies will
become mostly sunny by aftn. Highs mainly in the low 60s, with upper
50s on the Ern Shore. A weak area of low pressure tracks across the
nrn Mid-Atlantic Thu night-Fri AM. This will likely bring some
scattered showers to nrn portions of the area. Capped PoPs at 50%
for now (mainly from 06-12z Fri), with QPFs less than 0.10".
Lows around 50F Thu night w/ SSW return flow and increasing
clouds. It is still looking like a warm day across the majority
of the area on Friday as a backdoor cold front will remain just
N of the area for much of the day. Rain should move out of the
area by mid-late morning, giving way to dry conditions through
at least part of the aftn. Highs will be around 80F in most
areas (except for low 70s on the Ern Shore). The aforementioned
backdoor cold front moves into the region Fri evening before
crossing much of the area overnight. 12z/25 model consensus has
the front stalling just N of the VA/NC border Sat AM. At the
same time, strong low pressure takes shape in the Plains. As
this happens during the Fri night-Sat timeframe, a WNW-ESE
oriented area of rain develops on the cool side of the front
from the wrn Great Lakes to nrn VA/the Delmarva Peninsula
(coincident w/ a zone of mid-level WAA). Lows Fri night range
from the upper 40s N to the mid 50s S. While isolated-scattered
showers are possible across much of the area Fri evening-Friday
night, the main area of rain will impact nrn zones (mainly from
LKU-SBY), where PoPs increase to 60% by 12z Sat.
The stalled frontal boundary is progged to bisect the CWA on Sat.
Rain will likely continue across the nrn third of the CWA through
much of the day while it will be partly-mostly cloudy and warm
across far srn VA/NE NC (S of the boundary). The bulk of the
rain likely moves north of the area by Saturday evening. QPFs
from Fri-Sat range from less than 0.10" across the srn third of
the CWA to 0.3-0.4" over the Lower MD Ern Shore. There are
still some differences in the models, but a consensus forecast
has highs ranging from the upper 50s-low 60s N to around 80F
across interior sections of NE NC.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday...
The frontal boundary moves north of the area Saturday night as
strong low pressure (sfc-aloft) in the Plains tracks NE into
the Great Lakes on Sunday before weakening and moving into New
England Sun night. The trailing cold front is expected to cross
the area on Sunday, with a low chc (15-30%) of showers (and a
rumble of thunder or two) w/ the FROPA. Temperatures will warm
to much above average on Sun ahead of the trailing cold front,
with forecast highs mainly in the low-mid 80s (w/ upper 70s on
the Ern Shore). Cooler/drier wx will (briefly) prevail on
Monday as the low moves offshore of the New England coast and
high pressure builds toward the area from the NW. Yet another
area of low pressure takes shape in the central/srn Plains
Monday night before tracking eastward toward the Mid-
Atlantic/Southeast by the middle of the week. Rain chances will
increase across the local area Tuesday night, with pcpn
potentially continuing on Wed. This is still nearly a week out,
so specifics will become clearer in the coming days.
Highs mainly in the mid-upper 60s on Mon, with low-mid 60s on
Tue. Forecast lows Sun night are around 50F, with 40s Mon
night/Tue night. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s-mid 60s on
Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...
Pcpn will gradually end from west to east during the 03z-06z
timeframe, but IFR to low-end MVFR CIGS are expected to persist
through at least 04z at RIC/SBY and til 07z at ORF/PHF/ECG.
BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS are expected to prevail for much of the early
morning period (CIGS perhaps scatter out/rise to VFR at SBY by
~09z). Patchy fog/IFR ST is expected to develop across the VA
Piedmont late tonight...but this most likely remains W of RIC.
Northerly winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kt near the coast
through late evening before winds diminish tonight-Thu AM as
weak high pressure settles into the area. BKN MVFR CIGS likely
scatter out by late Thu AM, giving way to mainly SKC conditions
by aftn. Winds remain below 10 kt on Thu.
Outlook...VFR/mainly dry conditions are expected through Fri
AM. A backdoor cold front will cross the region Fri evening-Fri
night before stalling across srn VA/nrn NC Sat AM. Isolated-
scattered showers are possible on Fri. Showers are likely across
nrn portions of the CWA Fri night-Sat AM. VFR conditions likely
prevail through Fri, but there is a good chc of flight
restrictions from Fri night-Sat.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...
Low pressure is roughly a hundred miles off the VA/NC coast this
afternoon, and is expected to continue drifting NE this evening.
Winds this morning underperformed as the low has been slow to
strengthen. Based on the latest RAP analysis, the low is slowly
starting to strengthen now and as it deepens later this afternoon
into early this evening the winds over the waters should increase.
N/NE winds of 25-30 kts with gusts around 35 kts expected this
afternoon into early evening for the coastal waters, and 20-25 kts
with gusts around 30 kts for the bay and Currituck sound. The rivers
will have N/NE winds 15-25 kts. Gale warnings continue through late
tonight for the coastal waters, with Small Craft Advisories for the
bay, Currituck Sound, and area rivers. Seas continue to build, and
overall expect 6-10 ft for the coastal waters through the overnight,
and waves in the bay 3-5 ft.
Winds relax on Thursday as the low pulls away from the area and high
pressure builds into the area. Small Craft advisories for the
coastal waters will likely remain through at least early Friday for
elevated seas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...
Strong northerly winds today will result in tidal departures between
1-2 ft over middle and southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay.
Minor coastal flooding is possible during the high tide cycle late
tonight.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ077-078-
084>086-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631-
638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MPR
LONG TERM...ERI/MRD
AVIATION...ERI/JDM
MARINE...CMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
527 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Forecast concerns deal with snow accumulations through Saturday
morning and winter headline potential.
Currently...1008mb surface low analyzed over Riverton this
afternoon. Stationary front lays across northeast Colorado...over
the south Laramie Range...to Casper and then into a warm front
east of the low. Have been getting persistent snow over the Snowy
and Sierra Madre Ranges as well as lower elevations of Carbon
County at Rawlins...Saratoga and Dixon. East of the front...we
have been seeing some sunshine and partly cloudy skies.
Used HRRR and Hires guidance on PoPs tonight. Another upper
shortwave rides along the front as it shifts northward this
evening. Highest PoPs over our central sections along the front.
Looking at latest SNOTELS in the Snowy and Sierra Madre
Ranges...some of those sites received upwards of .5 inches of SWE
over the past 12-18 hours. All of our guidance showing a
persistent snow over these mountains ranges all the way through
Friday. Decided to upgrade these zones to winter storm warnings.
The front continues to waffle back and forth across the eastern
CWA Thursday...mainly from Alliance to just north of Cheyenne
through the day. Tried to narrow in on highest area for PoPs
Thursday and this looks to be our central zones. Mostly rain east
of the Laramie range and snow west.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Upper low off the California coast currently begins to move into
the 4 corners area Thursday night. 700mb low forecast near the
northwest Colorado/Utah state line after 06Z Friday. BY 18Z
Friday...700mb low forecast near Cheyenne with wrap around
moisture over our northern zones on the GFS. ECMWF showing this
low further south over northwestern Colorado. Wrap around moisture
further south over our southern zones. So there remains a degree
of uncertainty on what is going to happen and where the heaviest
snow is going to fall. Could be the Pine Ridge and northern
Panhandle that gets the heaviest snow...GFS solution or it could
be further south as suggested by the ECMWF. For now...went with
what has been consistent...the south Laramie Range where we have
been consistently getting 6-8 inches for a Winter Storm Watch. May
need additional headlines as we get closer to the
event...especially should the GFS solution come true. This would
be across the Pine Ridge in Sioux and Niobrara Counties to our
northeast.
Snow finally comes to an end Saturday morning from west to east as
low intensifies over central nebraska and northern Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 521 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins until 07Z, with occasional MVFR
until 04Z, then MVFR from 07Z to 15Z, then VFR.
VFR at Laramie and Cheyenne. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 03Z,
then gusts to 30 knots after 15Z Thursday.
Nebraska TAFS...VFR at Chadron and Alliance until 09Z, then IFR
until 15Z, then MVFR.
VFR at Scottsbluff until 10Z, then MVFR until 15Z, then VFR.
VFR at Sidney until 06Z, then MVFR until 09Z, then IFR until 15Z,
then MVFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Persistent snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges over the
next 48 hours and across Carbon County will keep fire weather
concerns minimized out west. A near stationary cold front lays
along the east slopes of the Laramie Range. East of the
front...northeast upslope winds expected to continue with high
humidity and colder temperatures. Low pressure still forecast to
track across Colorado Thursday night into Friday and is expected
to bring widespread accumulating snow across all areas east of the
Laramie Range. Fire weather concerns expected to be minimal
through at least Saturday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ112-114.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for WYZ116-117.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...
.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Synoptic Overview:
The mid to upper-level flow can still generally be described as
zonal across a large portion of the CONUS but short-wave
perturbations continue to create active weather. Over Iowa, the the
300mb winds have been westerly at 70 to 80 kts. A stronger jet
streak extends from the from the front range and goes across
portions of Kansas into Missouri. At the surface, Lee Cyclogenesis
has been ongoing in eastern Colorado as a short-wave moving over the
Rockies is providing the initial forcing to begin the lift. At the
surface in the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces, high pressure
remains in place from the previous ridge that promoted subsidence
yesterday. However that ridge has since deamplified and flow has
increased, thus this high pressure will begin to sink southward this
afternoon. The lee cyclone developing and this high pressure will be
the driver for active weather today. Ahead of the Lee Cyclone, WAA
will be occurring into the Upper Midwest. However, as the high
pressure slides south behind the surface low, colder air will push
through. This cold front can be seen on surface analysis this
morning located in eastern South Dakota.
Today and Tonight:
The short-wave trough that has initiated the lee cyclone over the
past 12 hours flattens out as is crosses the central Plains and
vorticity advection comes to a hault rather quickly. Thus for today,
not expecting considerable H5 height falls across Iowa. Even though
zonal in nature, the flow will be strong enough to steer the surface
cyclone along the KS-NE state line this afternoon, while the surface
high pressure continues to sink southward, pushing the cold front in
the eastern Dakotas southeastward toward Iowa. The initial surface
low will then begin to track toward the southeast, following the
stronger portion of the mid and upper-level jet streaks. NAM/GFS
solutions depict surface trough extending northeastward ahead of the
approaching cold front, essentially spinning off a secondary surface
low. However, prior runs of the ECMWF have not extended surface
trough influences into Iowa as extensively as GFS/NAM. In terms of
the forecast, this does not substantially impact the precipitation
chances, just slightly increases the uncertainty regarding how
strong the WAA remains this afternoon, and if we achieve the high
theta-e airmass that has been discussed over the past few forecast
cycles. Regardless of a secondary surface low, the cold front being
pushed by surface high pressure over the northern Plains will be the
source of convergence and lift for rain showers later this afternoon
and into the evening. While a few light showers and drizzle have
already been ongoing, HRRR and NSSL-WRF CAM solutions initiate the
stronger rain shower activity in southeast South Dakota after 19z
and move into Iowa along the with the cold front after 21z. The rain
showers increase in coverage southward along the front as the
evening progresses, and exit the eastern portion of the forecast
area after 06z tonight. While the bulk of the forecast area will see
some precipitation, the greatest amounts will remain along and north
of Interstate 80. The thermal profile in most model soundings ahead
and just behind the cold front keep conditions rather warm, and thus
expecting the precipitation type to be predominantly rain showers.
However, there are a few spots where there may be some ice
introduction and enough cooling to see some snow showers get mixed.
If any snow does occur, it will be very minimal and have minimal
impact if any this evening. There are a few model solutions that
suggest MUCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front. The
mean amongst the HREF members though is less than 500 J/kg. In the
forecast, will leave a minimal mention of thunder, but the lack of
mid to upper-level support will hinder any considerable organization
should isolated convection initiate this evening. Overnight periods
will be dry, and cool after the passage of the cold front.
Thursday:
Another short-wave perturbation waves off from the long wave trough
over the western CONUS Thursday Morning. H5 flow will remain between
70 and 90 kts and also will begin to transition the area into a
southwesterly flow regime. This kicks off another Lee Cyclone, and
there will be enough flow to promote stronger dCVA this time,
resulting in a deepening of the surface cyclone. This will begin to
move eastward by mid to late morning. As a result, the parent
surface low from Wednesday`s activity will be pushed further
eastward into Missouri. Thus, the surface synoptic picture by
Thursday afternoon will place most of the central Plains under the
influence of some kind of lower pressure, with one pressure minimum
located over central Missouri and the other over the CO-KS border.
The eastern pressure minimum will place Iowa in a zone of weak
deformation. Both 12z NAM and GFS are in good agreement with the
position of the eastern surface low pressure over central Missouri.
However, the NAM is a little bit more robust with frontogenetical
forcing than the GFS, and thus has an increase in rain shower
coverage. The GFS limits this forcing to eastern portions of the CWA
during the morning and afternoon on Thursday. As for the ECMWF, 12z
run agrees slightly better with the NAM in terms of greater coverage
of rain chances. Thus, will place POPs in for most of the forecast
area during this time. Thursday, Iowa remains out of the warm sector
with the low staying in place in central Missouri. This will keep
the unstable air well south of the area, and thus not anticipating
thunderstorms to develop with the rain showers on Thursday. With
respect to precipitation type, model soundings in northwest Iowa are
saturated with colder temperatures during the early and mid morning
on Thursday. With a little bit of ice introduction, snow may mix in
across the northwest during this time. For the rest of the forecast
area, rain will once again be the dominant precipitation type. The
precipitation will slowly push off to the east and come to an end by
early Friday Morning.
Friday and Saturday Activity:
Another short-wave moves eastward across the Rockies early on
Friday, but the long-wave trough over the western CONUS becomes
negatively tilted as jet rounds the base and quickly catches up to
the short-wave ejecting eastward. This will produce great amounts of
vorticity advection, resulting in a Lee Cyclone rapidly deepening.
With the jet rounding the base, the trough will begin to lift toward
the northeast dragging the associated surface cyclone northeast with
it. As this system tracks across the central Plains, the trough and
surface cyclone becomes vertically stacked. Pressure trough
influence will extend northeastward introducing initial
precipitation chances on the nose of the warm moist airmass. For
Friday, expect rain showers across most of the area. A few rumbles
of thunder may be possible, but the better instability won`t be
around during this time. The better instability may arrive on
Saturday. However, there is still decent uncertainty with this. The
12z GFS/ECWMF is tracking the surface cyclone further north and
brings the high theta-e airmass well into the forecast area, as well
as SBCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM keeps this
further south of the area. Thus, still anticipating thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, but where the most robust convection will occur
will highly depend on where the unstable airmass travels. The severe
threat does not look overly high with this setup, especially if the
warmer air stays further south. But, will need to monitor it
closely. With long-wave trough closing up as it approaches Iowa and
mature cyclone occluding, may present a favorable synoptic
environment for a low-topped supercell environment, especially if
NAM solution is what plays out with the placement of the better
instability axis well south of Iowa.
Extended:
The extended forecast will be marked by fairly progressive flow
through the middle of next week. A series of moderately amplified
ridges followed by short-wave and long-wave troughs will roll across
the United States. Expect there to be a few drier warm days
throughout the extended period, as well as days with active rain
showers and thunderstorm potential. Temperatures should remain
around seasonal, perhaps just a few degrees below at times. Overall,
the pattern looks very typical for late March and early April across
the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
High confidence in IFR conditions at all sites, with LIFR briefly
though the morning hours. Fog will also likely be an issue, but
CIGs will be the biggest factor in reducing flight categories.
Ceilings will likely reach MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Winds
should be near to under 10 kts.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Kotenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Warmer weather will prevail over the next few days, though rain
and scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous with time.
Rain chances will begin later on Thursday, and Friday night and
Saturday will see the most widespread rain across central and
southeast Illinois. Areas of fog may occur late tonight and early
Thursday, especially over east central and southeast Illinois.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Mainly seeing some mid and high clouds streaming across central
Illinois early this evening. However, an area of low clouds is
currently starting to expand into southeast Missouri. Some of the
high-res model guidance has been suggesting that this will advect
into the eastern CWA after about 2-3 am, while stratus also
spreads across our northern counties as the incoming frontal
boundary starts to align itself in a more west-east fashion. While
the existing forecast had this trend in place, fog chances have
been beefed up a bit in areas east of I-55, where the HRRR and the
GFS LAMP guidance have been showing potential for a few hours of
heavier fog toward sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Took a while today to clear fog out of the region. Some low
clouds continue to impact locations northwest of the Mississippi
River at Davenport this afternoon. Some high clouds are sliding
into the local CWA from the west, as a disturbance glides through
the upper Midwest. Clouds from this system are expected to remain
north of central Illinois. However, this boundary will shift south
overnight, reaching the CWA Thursday afternoon. This will bring
the return of showers to the area Thursday afternoon. As High
pressure sits of the se coast of the US, southerly winds will lift
through the Mississippi River Valley to the Midwest, as a warm
front Thursday afternoon. This will bring showers and a chance of
thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening
hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Heading toward Thursday night, the first round of showers will
exit the region. The warm frontal boundary will slide south once
again, stalling across southern Illinois. With diurnal heating
ending overnight, shower activity will also diminish. Heading into
Friday morning, heating will once again produce showers along the
boundary stalled west to east across Illinois` midsection.
Temperatures will continue a slow increasing trend into Saturday,
as the warm front fully lifts into southern Wisconsin, bringing
strong southerly winds into the region...as heavy moisture
inflows to the region. This will be the heaviest rainfall for the
entire event, as the Low pressure core approaches the region, with
widespread rainfall expected over Illinois. With the strong
southerly winds lifting moisture to the region, and the Low core
shifting through the central Plains, thunderstorm activity will
increase through Saturday. Looking at model instability factors,
some are starting to point to the potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms. A strong upper level jet will slide into the region
late Saturday, with CAPE values above 1k j/kg, with the chance for
directional sfc shear. This all depends on the track of the Low,
with more model runs closing in on a track. Latest model guidance
tracks the Low through northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin.
Behind this system a strong cold front will slide through Saturday
night into Sunday. This frontal passage ends precipitation, but
brings cooler air back to the Midwest. High pressure brings dry
conditions Sunday and Monday, but another quick hitting Low
pressure system shifts through the southern US. Southern Illinois
could be brushed by the northern fringe of this system, bringing
additional rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Main concern will be with development of IFR or low MVFR
conditions overnight. A frontal boundary will be approaching from
the northwest overnight, but wind fields become a bit erratic as
the front begins to align more west-east across central Illinois.
Several of the models are showing a low cloud deck spreading
northeast toward KDEC/KCMI after 08Z as well. Will introduce
clouds below 1000 feet in most of the TAF sites in the 08-12Z time
frame. Visibility may become an issue as well, though there is
some dependence on how much winds diminish. Some modest
improvement in ceilings expected late Thursday morning, though the
development of rain showers will not aid in much improvement.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SYNOPSIS...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Forecast concern near term is rain to snow scenario this evening
and if there will be any accumulation.
Radar continues to show a couple of bands of precipitation across
the region. One to the north over central MN and the other to the
south. It does appear this is finally filling in as the upper
trough approaches. Latest RAP shows the enhanced FGEN forced band
to the north gradually shifting east and the southern band
merging with the north over the metro through 00z. Current thermal
structure of the boundary layer shows it continues to be warm
enough for mainly rain. Cant rule out a mix or even a change over
to wet snow if FGEN band remains strong. Will need to watch this
early evening. At any rate, ground/roads warm so most should melt.
The upper wave associated with this feature exits to the east
through about 06z. Clouds are expected to remain for the most
part. The next system is fast on this ones heels and looks like
we will work some deeper moisture over the region again Thursday
into Thursday evening. This should be be mainly rain.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
The next more significant weather system develops later Friday
over the Oklahoma panhandle region. It lifts northeast and
deepens/occludes to the south and moves into southern Wisconsin
late Saturday night. This track, and being late March should yield
mainly rain, but there remains a chance of a changeover to wet
snow on the backside of the weather system. Does appears much of
the area will see at least 0.75 to 1.25 inches of QPF with the
system. Along with the heavy rain, we should see winds increase
from the north/northwest Saturday into Sunday with some gust to
40 mph likely.
Following this system we see another system possibly affecting the
area Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Temperatures still trend above
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020
Only minor changes needed to timing rain out of TAFs, mainly a
slight delay to ending it where it`s still raining. Lower
confidence on cigs for tonight. We are seeing fairly widespread
VFR cigs behind the rain in central MN and suspect the LAV is way
to pessimistic with holding on to MVFR cigs at all locations this
whole period. Followed the idea of the RAP that during the course
of the day Thursday, we`ll see the lower clouds break up outside
of RWF/MKT, only to be replaced by mid level clouds. Wave going
across southern MN Thursday afternoon will spread some light rain
across the I-90 corridor and may bring some light rain to MKT
after 20z. Otherwise, expect other terminals to remain dry.
KMSP...Given current cloud heights in central MN, we may be too
pessimistic in holding MVFR cigs into Thu morning. For Thursday
afternoon, we`ll have very dry low level air thanks to being under
the influence of a surface high, so not really buying in to how
far north the 18z HRRR has rain and think that will be confined to
mainly the I-90 corridor.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5 kts.
SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs with RA. Wind NE 15G30 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Latest RAP model has mid/upper level ridging on the northeast
Mexican coast this evening that tracks out over the Gulf of
Mexico during Thu...sprawling across the region and maintain
northwesterly flow aloft our area. A diffuse frontal boundary
drifts south through FL tonight with little significant impact.
High pressure along the eastern sea board begins to build across
FL and over the Gulf of Mexico Thu.
Overnight there will be occasional low clouds along with patchy
fog which will be from Hillsborough-Polk counties south. The low
clouds and fog lift and burn off around 9 am with partly cloudy
skies during the rest of the day. Temperatures continue warm and
run above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF cycle. Prevailing VFR for the most part with FEW-SCT
CU/SC under some OCNL BKN CI. However...there will be ST and BR
around BTWN 09-14Z with MVFR at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. W winds diminish
overnight and become VRB at times then NW to W AFT 14Z at no more
than 9KT.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure provides northwesterly winds at 15 knots or less
through Thu although waters north of Tarpon Springs will see 15
to 20 knots tonight.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 70 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 68 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 67 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 70 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 66 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 70 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...69/Close
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close