Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/26/20

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1027 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region through Friday. Low pressure tracks to our north on Friday, then a backdoor cold front will cross part of the area Friday night before stalling across the area on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1025 PM EDT Wednesday... Sfc high pressure has begun to build into the region late this evening as deepening low pressure moves further out to sea. Still plentiful low-level moisture beneath the high which will allow for areas of light rain/drizzle for portions of eastern VA/NE NC through 06z. Some decrease in cloud cover is expected across the NE FA by early Thursday morning, while remaining mostly cloudy/overcast elsewhere. Patchy fog over the Piedmont. Lows from the up 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday... High pressure builds over the area on Thu before moving offshore by Thu evening. Low clouds may be slow to erode Thu AM, but skies will become mostly sunny by aftn. Highs mainly in the low 60s, with upper 50s on the Ern Shore. A weak area of low pressure tracks across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Thu night-Fri AM. This will likely bring some scattered showers to nrn portions of the area. Capped PoPs at 50% for now (mainly from 06-12z Fri), with QPFs less than 0.10". Lows around 50F Thu night w/ SSW return flow and increasing clouds. It is still looking like a warm day across the majority of the area on Friday as a backdoor cold front will remain just N of the area for much of the day. Rain should move out of the area by mid-late morning, giving way to dry conditions through at least part of the aftn. Highs will be around 80F in most areas (except for low 70s on the Ern Shore). The aforementioned backdoor cold front moves into the region Fri evening before crossing much of the area overnight. 12z/25 model consensus has the front stalling just N of the VA/NC border Sat AM. At the same time, strong low pressure takes shape in the Plains. As this happens during the Fri night-Sat timeframe, a WNW-ESE oriented area of rain develops on the cool side of the front from the wrn Great Lakes to nrn VA/the Delmarva Peninsula (coincident w/ a zone of mid-level WAA). Lows Fri night range from the upper 40s N to the mid 50s S. While isolated-scattered showers are possible across much of the area Fri evening-Friday night, the main area of rain will impact nrn zones (mainly from LKU-SBY), where PoPs increase to 60% by 12z Sat. The stalled frontal boundary is progged to bisect the CWA on Sat. Rain will likely continue across the nrn third of the CWA through much of the day while it will be partly-mostly cloudy and warm across far srn VA/NE NC (S of the boundary). The bulk of the rain likely moves north of the area by Saturday evening. QPFs from Fri-Sat range from less than 0.10" across the srn third of the CWA to 0.3-0.4" over the Lower MD Ern Shore. There are still some differences in the models, but a consensus forecast has highs ranging from the upper 50s-low 60s N to around 80F across interior sections of NE NC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Wednesday... The frontal boundary moves north of the area Saturday night as strong low pressure (sfc-aloft) in the Plains tracks NE into the Great Lakes on Sunday before weakening and moving into New England Sun night. The trailing cold front is expected to cross the area on Sunday, with a low chc (15-30%) of showers (and a rumble of thunder or two) w/ the FROPA. Temperatures will warm to much above average on Sun ahead of the trailing cold front, with forecast highs mainly in the low-mid 80s (w/ upper 70s on the Ern Shore). Cooler/drier wx will (briefly) prevail on Monday as the low moves offshore of the New England coast and high pressure builds toward the area from the NW. Yet another area of low pressure takes shape in the central/srn Plains Monday night before tracking eastward toward the Mid- Atlantic/Southeast by the middle of the week. Rain chances will increase across the local area Tuesday night, with pcpn potentially continuing on Wed. This is still nearly a week out, so specifics will become clearer in the coming days. Highs mainly in the mid-upper 60s on Mon, with low-mid 60s on Tue. Forecast lows Sun night are around 50F, with 40s Mon night/Tue night. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s-mid 60s on Wed. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday... Pcpn will gradually end from west to east during the 03z-06z timeframe, but IFR to low-end MVFR CIGS are expected to persist through at least 04z at RIC/SBY and til 07z at ORF/PHF/ECG. BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS are expected to prevail for much of the early morning period (CIGS perhaps scatter out/rise to VFR at SBY by ~09z). Patchy fog/IFR ST is expected to develop across the VA Piedmont late tonight...but this most likely remains W of RIC. Northerly winds will continue to gust to 20-25 kt near the coast through late evening before winds diminish tonight-Thu AM as weak high pressure settles into the area. BKN MVFR CIGS likely scatter out by late Thu AM, giving way to mainly SKC conditions by aftn. Winds remain below 10 kt on Thu. Outlook...VFR/mainly dry conditions are expected through Fri AM. A backdoor cold front will cross the region Fri evening-Fri night before stalling across srn VA/nrn NC Sat AM. Isolated- scattered showers are possible on Fri. Showers are likely across nrn portions of the CWA Fri night-Sat AM. VFR conditions likely prevail through Fri, but there is a good chc of flight restrictions from Fri night-Sat. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Low pressure is roughly a hundred miles off the VA/NC coast this afternoon, and is expected to continue drifting NE this evening. Winds this morning underperformed as the low has been slow to strengthen. Based on the latest RAP analysis, the low is slowly starting to strengthen now and as it deepens later this afternoon into early this evening the winds over the waters should increase. N/NE winds of 25-30 kts with gusts around 35 kts expected this afternoon into early evening for the coastal waters, and 20-25 kts with gusts around 30 kts for the bay and Currituck sound. The rivers will have N/NE winds 15-25 kts. Gale warnings continue through late tonight for the coastal waters, with Small Craft Advisories for the bay, Currituck Sound, and area rivers. Seas continue to build, and overall expect 6-10 ft for the coastal waters through the overnight, and waves in the bay 3-5 ft. Winds relax on Thursday as the low pulls away from the area and high pressure builds into the area. Small Craft advisories for the coastal waters will likely remain through at least early Friday for elevated seas. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday... Strong northerly winds today will result in tidal departures between 1-2 ft over middle and southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay. Minor coastal flooding is possible during the high tide cycle late tonight. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ077-078- 084>086-093-095>100-523>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/JDM NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM SHORT TERM...ERI/MPR LONG TERM...ERI/MRD AVIATION...ERI/JDM MARINE...CMF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
527 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Forecast concerns deal with snow accumulations through Saturday morning and winter headline potential. Currently...1008mb surface low analyzed over Riverton this afternoon. Stationary front lays across northeast Colorado...over the south Laramie Casper and then into a warm front east of the low. Have been getting persistent snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges as well as lower elevations of Carbon County at Rawlins...Saratoga and Dixon. East of the front...we have been seeing some sunshine and partly cloudy skies. Used HRRR and Hires guidance on PoPs tonight. Another upper shortwave rides along the front as it shifts northward this evening. Highest PoPs over our central sections along the front. Looking at latest SNOTELS in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges...some of those sites received upwards of .5 inches of SWE over the past 12-18 hours. All of our guidance showing a persistent snow over these mountains ranges all the way through Friday. Decided to upgrade these zones to winter storm warnings. The front continues to waffle back and forth across the eastern CWA Thursday...mainly from Alliance to just north of Cheyenne through the day. Tried to narrow in on highest area for PoPs Thursday and this looks to be our central zones. Mostly rain east of the Laramie range and snow west. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Upper low off the California coast currently begins to move into the 4 corners area Thursday night. 700mb low forecast near the northwest Colorado/Utah state line after 06Z Friday. BY 18Z Friday...700mb low forecast near Cheyenne with wrap around moisture over our northern zones on the GFS. ECMWF showing this low further south over northwestern Colorado. Wrap around moisture further south over our southern zones. So there remains a degree of uncertainty on what is going to happen and where the heaviest snow is going to fall. Could be the Pine Ridge and northern Panhandle that gets the heaviest snow...GFS solution or it could be further south as suggested by the ECMWF. For now...went with what has been consistent...the south Laramie Range where we have been consistently getting 6-8 inches for a Winter Storm Watch. May need additional headlines as we get closer to the event...especially should the GFS solution come true. This would be across the Pine Ridge in Sioux and Niobrara Counties to our northeast. Snow finally comes to an end Saturday morning from west to east as low intensifies over central nebraska and northern Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 521 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Wyoming TAFS...VFR at Rawlins until 07Z, with occasional MVFR until 04Z, then MVFR from 07Z to 15Z, then VFR. VFR at Laramie and Cheyenne. Wind gusts to 28 knots until 03Z, then gusts to 30 knots after 15Z Thursday. Nebraska TAFS...VFR at Chadron and Alliance until 09Z, then IFR until 15Z, then MVFR. VFR at Scottsbluff until 10Z, then MVFR until 15Z, then VFR. VFR at Sidney until 06Z, then MVFR until 09Z, then IFR until 15Z, then MVFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM MDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Persistent snow over the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges over the next 48 hours and across Carbon County will keep fire weather concerns minimized out west. A near stationary cold front lays along the east slopes of the Laramie Range. East of the front...northeast upslope winds expected to continue with high humidity and colder temperatures. Low pressure still forecast to track across Colorado Thursday night into Friday and is expected to bring widespread accumulating snow across all areas east of the Laramie Range. Fire weather concerns expected to be minimal through at least Saturday. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ112-114. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for WYZ116-117. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...GCC AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...GCC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 ...Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Wednesday/ Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Synoptic Overview: The mid to upper-level flow can still generally be described as zonal across a large portion of the CONUS but short-wave perturbations continue to create active weather. Over Iowa, the the 300mb winds have been westerly at 70 to 80 kts. A stronger jet streak extends from the from the front range and goes across portions of Kansas into Missouri. At the surface, Lee Cyclogenesis has been ongoing in eastern Colorado as a short-wave moving over the Rockies is providing the initial forcing to begin the lift. At the surface in the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces, high pressure remains in place from the previous ridge that promoted subsidence yesterday. However that ridge has since deamplified and flow has increased, thus this high pressure will begin to sink southward this afternoon. The lee cyclone developing and this high pressure will be the driver for active weather today. Ahead of the Lee Cyclone, WAA will be occurring into the Upper Midwest. However, as the high pressure slides south behind the surface low, colder air will push through. This cold front can be seen on surface analysis this morning located in eastern South Dakota. Today and Tonight: The short-wave trough that has initiated the lee cyclone over the past 12 hours flattens out as is crosses the central Plains and vorticity advection comes to a hault rather quickly. Thus for today, not expecting considerable H5 height falls across Iowa. Even though zonal in nature, the flow will be strong enough to steer the surface cyclone along the KS-NE state line this afternoon, while the surface high pressure continues to sink southward, pushing the cold front in the eastern Dakotas southeastward toward Iowa. The initial surface low will then begin to track toward the southeast, following the stronger portion of the mid and upper-level jet streaks. NAM/GFS solutions depict surface trough extending northeastward ahead of the approaching cold front, essentially spinning off a secondary surface low. However, prior runs of the ECMWF have not extended surface trough influences into Iowa as extensively as GFS/NAM. In terms of the forecast, this does not substantially impact the precipitation chances, just slightly increases the uncertainty regarding how strong the WAA remains this afternoon, and if we achieve the high theta-e airmass that has been discussed over the past few forecast cycles. Regardless of a secondary surface low, the cold front being pushed by surface high pressure over the northern Plains will be the source of convergence and lift for rain showers later this afternoon and into the evening. While a few light showers and drizzle have already been ongoing, HRRR and NSSL-WRF CAM solutions initiate the stronger rain shower activity in southeast South Dakota after 19z and move into Iowa along the with the cold front after 21z. The rain showers increase in coverage southward along the front as the evening progresses, and exit the eastern portion of the forecast area after 06z tonight. While the bulk of the forecast area will see some precipitation, the greatest amounts will remain along and north of Interstate 80. The thermal profile in most model soundings ahead and just behind the cold front keep conditions rather warm, and thus expecting the precipitation type to be predominantly rain showers. However, there are a few spots where there may be some ice introduction and enough cooling to see some snow showers get mixed. If any snow does occur, it will be very minimal and have minimal impact if any this evening. There are a few model solutions that suggest MUCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front. The mean amongst the HREF members though is less than 500 J/kg. In the forecast, will leave a minimal mention of thunder, but the lack of mid to upper-level support will hinder any considerable organization should isolated convection initiate this evening. Overnight periods will be dry, and cool after the passage of the cold front. Thursday: Another short-wave perturbation waves off from the long wave trough over the western CONUS Thursday Morning. H5 flow will remain between 70 and 90 kts and also will begin to transition the area into a southwesterly flow regime. This kicks off another Lee Cyclone, and there will be enough flow to promote stronger dCVA this time, resulting in a deepening of the surface cyclone. This will begin to move eastward by mid to late morning. As a result, the parent surface low from Wednesday`s activity will be pushed further eastward into Missouri. Thus, the surface synoptic picture by Thursday afternoon will place most of the central Plains under the influence of some kind of lower pressure, with one pressure minimum located over central Missouri and the other over the CO-KS border. The eastern pressure minimum will place Iowa in a zone of weak deformation. Both 12z NAM and GFS are in good agreement with the position of the eastern surface low pressure over central Missouri. However, the NAM is a little bit more robust with frontogenetical forcing than the GFS, and thus has an increase in rain shower coverage. The GFS limits this forcing to eastern portions of the CWA during the morning and afternoon on Thursday. As for the ECMWF, 12z run agrees slightly better with the NAM in terms of greater coverage of rain chances. Thus, will place POPs in for most of the forecast area during this time. Thursday, Iowa remains out of the warm sector with the low staying in place in central Missouri. This will keep the unstable air well south of the area, and thus not anticipating thunderstorms to develop with the rain showers on Thursday. With respect to precipitation type, model soundings in northwest Iowa are saturated with colder temperatures during the early and mid morning on Thursday. With a little bit of ice introduction, snow may mix in across the northwest during this time. For the rest of the forecast area, rain will once again be the dominant precipitation type. The precipitation will slowly push off to the east and come to an end by early Friday Morning. Friday and Saturday Activity: Another short-wave moves eastward across the Rockies early on Friday, but the long-wave trough over the western CONUS becomes negatively tilted as jet rounds the base and quickly catches up to the short-wave ejecting eastward. This will produce great amounts of vorticity advection, resulting in a Lee Cyclone rapidly deepening. With the jet rounding the base, the trough will begin to lift toward the northeast dragging the associated surface cyclone northeast with it. As this system tracks across the central Plains, the trough and surface cyclone becomes vertically stacked. Pressure trough influence will extend northeastward introducing initial precipitation chances on the nose of the warm moist airmass. For Friday, expect rain showers across most of the area. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible, but the better instability won`t be around during this time. The better instability may arrive on Saturday. However, there is still decent uncertainty with this. The 12z GFS/ECWMF is tracking the surface cyclone further north and brings the high theta-e airmass well into the forecast area, as well as SBCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the 12z NAM keeps this further south of the area. Thus, still anticipating thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but where the most robust convection will occur will highly depend on where the unstable airmass travels. The severe threat does not look overly high with this setup, especially if the warmer air stays further south. But, will need to monitor it closely. With long-wave trough closing up as it approaches Iowa and mature cyclone occluding, may present a favorable synoptic environment for a low-topped supercell environment, especially if NAM solution is what plays out with the placement of the better instability axis well south of Iowa. Extended: The extended forecast will be marked by fairly progressive flow through the middle of next week. A series of moderately amplified ridges followed by short-wave and long-wave troughs will roll across the United States. Expect there to be a few drier warm days throughout the extended period, as well as days with active rain showers and thunderstorm potential. Temperatures should remain around seasonal, perhaps just a few degrees below at times. Overall, the pattern looks very typical for late March and early April across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening/ Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 High confidence in IFR conditions at all sites, with LIFR briefly though the morning hours. Fog will also likely be an issue, but CIGs will be the biggest factor in reducing flight categories. Ceilings will likely reach MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Winds should be near to under 10 kts. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Kotenberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Warmer weather will prevail over the next few days, though rain and scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous with time. Rain chances will begin later on Thursday, and Friday night and Saturday will see the most widespread rain across central and southeast Illinois. Areas of fog may occur late tonight and early Thursday, especially over east central and southeast Illinois. && .UPDATE... Issued at 739 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Mainly seeing some mid and high clouds streaming across central Illinois early this evening. However, an area of low clouds is currently starting to expand into southeast Missouri. Some of the high-res model guidance has been suggesting that this will advect into the eastern CWA after about 2-3 am, while stratus also spreads across our northern counties as the incoming frontal boundary starts to align itself in a more west-east fashion. While the existing forecast had this trend in place, fog chances have been beefed up a bit in areas east of I-55, where the HRRR and the GFS LAMP guidance have been showing potential for a few hours of heavier fog toward sunrise. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Took a while today to clear fog out of the region. Some low clouds continue to impact locations northwest of the Mississippi River at Davenport this afternoon. Some high clouds are sliding into the local CWA from the west, as a disturbance glides through the upper Midwest. Clouds from this system are expected to remain north of central Illinois. However, this boundary will shift south overnight, reaching the CWA Thursday afternoon. This will bring the return of showers to the area Thursday afternoon. As High pressure sits of the se coast of the US, southerly winds will lift through the Mississippi River Valley to the Midwest, as a warm front Thursday afternoon. This will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Heading toward Thursday night, the first round of showers will exit the region. The warm frontal boundary will slide south once again, stalling across southern Illinois. With diurnal heating ending overnight, shower activity will also diminish. Heading into Friday morning, heating will once again produce showers along the boundary stalled west to east across Illinois` midsection. Temperatures will continue a slow increasing trend into Saturday, as the warm front fully lifts into southern Wisconsin, bringing strong southerly winds into the heavy moisture inflows to the region. This will be the heaviest rainfall for the entire event, as the Low pressure core approaches the region, with widespread rainfall expected over Illinois. With the strong southerly winds lifting moisture to the region, and the Low core shifting through the central Plains, thunderstorm activity will increase through Saturday. Looking at model instability factors, some are starting to point to the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms. A strong upper level jet will slide into the region late Saturday, with CAPE values above 1k j/kg, with the chance for directional sfc shear. This all depends on the track of the Low, with more model runs closing in on a track. Latest model guidance tracks the Low through northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin. Behind this system a strong cold front will slide through Saturday night into Sunday. This frontal passage ends precipitation, but brings cooler air back to the Midwest. High pressure brings dry conditions Sunday and Monday, but another quick hitting Low pressure system shifts through the southern US. Southern Illinois could be brushed by the northern fringe of this system, bringing additional rainfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Main concern will be with development of IFR or low MVFR conditions overnight. A frontal boundary will be approaching from the northwest overnight, but wind fields become a bit erratic as the front begins to align more west-east across central Illinois. Several of the models are showing a low cloud deck spreading northeast toward KDEC/KCMI after 08Z as well. Will introduce clouds below 1000 feet in most of the TAF sites in the 08-12Z time frame. Visibility may become an issue as well, though there is some dependence on how much winds diminish. Some modest improvement in ceilings expected late Thursday morning, though the development of rain showers will not aid in much improvement. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SYNOPSIS...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Geelhart
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
709 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Forecast concern near term is rain to snow scenario this evening and if there will be any accumulation. Radar continues to show a couple of bands of precipitation across the region. One to the north over central MN and the other to the south. It does appear this is finally filling in as the upper trough approaches. Latest RAP shows the enhanced FGEN forced band to the north gradually shifting east and the southern band merging with the north over the metro through 00z. Current thermal structure of the boundary layer shows it continues to be warm enough for mainly rain. Cant rule out a mix or even a change over to wet snow if FGEN band remains strong. Will need to watch this early evening. At any rate, ground/roads warm so most should melt. The upper wave associated with this feature exits to the east through about 06z. Clouds are expected to remain for the most part. The next system is fast on this ones heels and looks like we will work some deeper moisture over the region again Thursday into Thursday evening. This should be be mainly rain. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 The next more significant weather system develops later Friday over the Oklahoma panhandle region. It lifts northeast and deepens/occludes to the south and moves into southern Wisconsin late Saturday night. This track, and being late March should yield mainly rain, but there remains a chance of a changeover to wet snow on the backside of the weather system. Does appears much of the area will see at least 0.75 to 1.25 inches of QPF with the system. Along with the heavy rain, we should see winds increase from the north/northwest Saturday into Sunday with some gust to 40 mph likely. Following this system we see another system possibly affecting the area Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Temperatures still trend above && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2020 Only minor changes needed to timing rain out of TAFs, mainly a slight delay to ending it where it`s still raining. Lower confidence on cigs for tonight. We are seeing fairly widespread VFR cigs behind the rain in central MN and suspect the LAV is way to pessimistic with holding on to MVFR cigs at all locations this whole period. Followed the idea of the RAP that during the course of the day Thursday, we`ll see the lower clouds break up outside of RWF/MKT, only to be replaced by mid level clouds. Wave going across southern MN Thursday afternoon will spread some light rain across the I-90 corridor and may bring some light rain to MKT after 20z. Otherwise, expect other terminals to remain dry. KMSP...Given current cloud heights in central MN, we may be too pessimistic in holding MVFR cigs into Thu morning. For Thursday afternoon, we`ll have very dry low level air thanks to being under the influence of a surface high, so not really buying in to how far north the 18z HRRR has rain and think that will be confined to mainly the I-90 corridor. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5 kts. SAT...MVFR/IFR cigs with RA. Wind NE 15G30 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM... AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2020 .UPDATE... Latest RAP model has mid/upper level ridging on the northeast Mexican coast this evening that tracks out over the Gulf of Mexico during Thu...sprawling across the region and maintain northwesterly flow aloft our area. A diffuse frontal boundary drifts south through FL tonight with little significant impact. High pressure along the eastern sea board begins to build across FL and over the Gulf of Mexico Thu. Overnight there will be occasional low clouds along with patchy fog which will be from Hillsborough-Polk counties south. The low clouds and fog lift and burn off around 9 am with partly cloudy skies during the rest of the day. Temperatures continue warm and run above normal. && .AVIATION... 26/00Z TAF cycle. Prevailing VFR for the most part with FEW-SCT CU/SC under some OCNL BKN CI. However...there will be ST and BR around BTWN 09-14Z with MVFR at LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. W winds diminish overnight and become VRB at times then NW to W AFT 14Z at no more than 9KT. && .MARINE... High pressure provides northwesterly winds at 15 knots or less through Thu although waters north of Tarpon Springs will see 15 to 20 knots tonight. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 70 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 68 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 67 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 70 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 66 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 70 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude UPPER AIR...69/Close DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close