Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/24/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
927 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
The forecast for tonight remains on track. Earlier we did add the
fog potential to the HWO and will keep this the same with this
product issuance.
UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Main update for tonight was to better detail the fog potential
after midnight and through Tue AM for south central ND along with
the James River Valley, by utilizing the very good agreement
between the latest HRRR and RAP with the fog depiction. Will hold
off on mentioning in the HWO with this update, but will revisit
later this evening if model guidance remains the same.
Have also increased overnight lows a few degrees given the upper
level cloud deck moving in along with a steady southerly mixing
wind through the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
A pleasant spring day is ongoing across western and central North
Dakota, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 40s
east to mid 50s west. Surface high pressure is located to our east
over northern Minnesota, with breezy southerly winds that should
lessen this evening. Mild temperatures will continue tonight, with
overnight lows in the lower 30s. High-res guidance shows a low
stratus deck moving into south central and southeast North Dakota
from continued moist, southerly flow. With such low ceilings,
patchy fog is possible from the Bismarck/Mandan area through the
James River Valley.
An upper-level shortwave will progress over the southern Canadian
prairies on Tuesday, with most precipitation staying north of the
International Border. There is a slight chance for some rain or
freezing rain in north central North Dakota Tuesday morning, but
QPF amounts are very light. A cold front associated with the
aforementioned shortwave will starting dropping into northwest
North Dakota late Tuesday afternoon, so while high temperatures in
the south will be in the mid to upper 50s, expect highs to be
limited to the mid 40s in the north with clouds increasing later
in the day. As a pre-frontal surface trough moves east through the
state on Tuesday, also expecting breezy westerly winds to
develop.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Low chances for precipitation and seasonable temperatures highlight
the extended forecast.
Tuesday evening, the aforementioned shortwave will move off to
our east and the associated surface cold front will continue to
drop southeast through North Dakota. Expect breezy winds from
modest height rises behind the front to shift northwest and usher
colder air into the state. The chance for rain and snow in the far
south has increased slightly overnight Tuesday into early
Wednesday morning as the front stalls. QPF amounts remain low,
with only a dusting of snow expected before temperatures warm and
precipitation could transition to rain. Wednesday will be the
coldest day in the extended forecast, with widespread high
temperatures in the 30s.
For the end of the week, temperatures will rebound back to around
average (40s and 50s) with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Some small
chances for precipitation exist Thursday and Friday, but placement
and amount has been inconsistent between model guidance, so low
confidence with any one solution.
CIPs analogs and the CPC extended outlooks continue to highlight
above average temperatures next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
VFR conditions will prevail at KDIK/KXWA/KMOT through the 00Z TAF
period with mid/upper level cloud cover for most of tonight/Tue
AM. Low stratus and fog will develop northward into south central
North Dakota and across the James Valley after midnight impacting
both KBIS/KJMS. Ceilings will likely to drop to IFR and possibly
LIFR after 09-10Z, along with MVFR-IFR vis in fog. KBIS should see
improving conditions after 14-15Z. KJMS will likely see these
conditions through the morning and possibly through 21Z, with fog
there approaching VLIFR between 10-15Z. Winds will shift to
northwesterly on Tuesday as a cold front approaches.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...NH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1021 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Long Island NY this evening will pass
south of Nantucket around midnight then moving south of Nova
Scotia. A drying trend develops later Tuesday morning as high
pressure builds east bringing near normal temperatures. Another
coastal storm will move across at mid week, bringing another
round of rain and/or snow. A period of unsettled weather returns
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM Update...
Updated snow totals and lowered things slightly based on
observations as some areas are experiencing more of a wintry
mix. Where the warnings are in effect expecting an additional 1
to 3 inches. Areas within the advisories will see another 1 to
2 inches. Temperatures generally on track. No changes in
headlines at this point in time.
Increased wind speeds and gusts over the land and especially
over the ocean based on the latest observations. Blended things
toward the latest RAP guidance, which is going well.
715 PM update ...
Rain-snow line per observations and CC dual pol product is
around or just north of I-90 and west of I-495. Expecting snow
to continue across the region (northern MA) with rain-snow line
nearly steady thru about 03z and then will see dry slot being to
overspread this region with ptype converting to rain except
freezing rain across the higher terrain. Seeing this already at
KORH and other locations south of the Pike with dry air aloft
and subfreezing surface temperatures. Thus will continue
headlines here with storm total snowfall of 4-8 inches for the
high terrain, 2-4 inches across the valleys/lower elevations of
western-central MA.
For CT given snow has changed to rain we expired the Winter
Weather Headline.
Elsewhere low level southeast jet will result in strong east
winds up to 45 mph across Cape Cod and Islands tonight then
shifting to north late tonight.
Rain heavy at times across CT/RI and eastern MA expected thru
03z-06z then tapering off late toward morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...
Weak high pressure builds over the region with winds initially
from the north, but light away from the coast. This will draw in
some weak cold advection, enough to support mixing to about 925
mb. Temperatures in the mixed layer will be equiv to -5C at 850
mb...so expect high temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Tuesday night...
The high will exit off to the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening,
then another system in the fast mid level steering flow will
shift NE out of the Ohio Valley. Some question on how quickly
the low moves E of the region, but should see clouds increase
during the night. May see some patchy light rain and/or snow may
push into the CT valley by around daybreak on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...
* Another round of rain/snow Wednesday into Thursday but snow
should be limited to higher elevations.
* Next chance of precip comes over the weekend
Details...
Wednesday and Thursday...
A zonal flow pattern continues over the eastern US through the end
of the week meaning a couple of chances of precipitation. The main
event and best shot at seeing rain/snow comes Wednesday into early
Thursday morning with a potent coastal storm. At the mid levels a
shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley with a sfc reflection early
Wednesday morning. This then will produce a secondary low along the
frontal boundary, off the coast of New Jersey that passes to our
south. The moisture and dynamics are there, with PWATs approaching
0.8", a decent LLJ, and vort max moving through. However, in the
last 24 hours most all of the guidance has trended further south
with the low track, in turn moving the best dynamics and thus QPF
further south as well. This would make it more of a south coast rain
event, with the majority of precip falling south of the MA Pike.
High pressure to the northeast has also trended stronger which could
help keep northerly flow and colder air in place longer. However,
still looking like snow would be limited to higher elevations. Gusty
easterly winds are also likely with this system, especially along
the southeast coast and over the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, but the swath of strongest winds has shifted south and will
continue to move further if the southward trend continues. Models
continue to hint that Nantucket may flirt with some coastal flooding
issues Wednesday night, but chances are low at the moment.
By mid morning Thursday most all of the rain should be moved off the
east coast as the low goes out to sea. A brief ridge of high
pressure moves in bringing drier weather on Thursday. Lingering low
level moisture keeps some cloud cover around, however. Model
soundings show mixing up to near 850 mb, and northerly flow on
the back side of the low brings 850 mb temps down around -2 C
which should translate to highs in the mid 40s to low 50s (in
the CT valley).
Friday through Sunday...
Friday we warm up again under marginal warm advection...highs climb
to the mid 50s region-wide. This under another weak ridge of high
pressure which continues into Saturday. Our next chance of rain then
comes around late Saturday or Sunday as another disturbance
approaches. However, there remains great uncertainty with where and
how quickly this develops.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00Z update ... no major changes from previous forecast. Earlier
discussion below.
===================================================================
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
As temps remain nearly steady or slowly rise through the night,
will see the snow line shift further inland. Precip changes
over to rain further S and E. Rain may fall heavily at times
through around midnight across RI/SE Mass. Mainly IFR-LIFR
conditions this evening, then should improve to VFR across the
CT valley region by around midnight, then will push slowly E.
MVFR-IFR conditions linger across E Mass through the night.
Easterly winds gusting up to 25 to 35 kt along coastal terminals
through around midnight, then will back to northerly and slowly
diminish during the early morning hours. LLWS at times across NE
Mass as well as S coastal Mass/RI through the night.
Tuesday...High confidence.
Expect VSBYS to improve to VFR by mid morning. However, MVFR-IFR
CIGS linger across E coastal areas from KPYM to the Cape and Islands
as well as the E slopes of the Berkshires through midday before
improving. North winds gusting up to 25 to 30 kt across the Cape and
islands Tuesday morning, then will diminish.
Tuesday night...Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions, but could see areas of MVFR CIGS across the E
slopes of the Berkshires as well as coastal terminals off and on
through the night. Another low approaches from the mid Atlc states
with MVFR conditions in patchy light rain and/or snow across W Mass
into N central CT toward daybreak Wednesday.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt. RA likely.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with areas
of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: Chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Have hoisted Gale Warnings for the coastal waters as E winds
increase this evening, gusting up to 30-35 kt with some gusts up
to 40 kt E of Cape Cod overnight. Winds will remain somewhat
lighter across Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay, so Small
Craft Advisories remain there. As the low moves E-NE, winds will
back to northerly and remain strong across the eastern waters
after midnight through daybreak. Seas will build to 6 to 11
feet, highest across the waters S and E of Cape Cod.
As the low exits to the Gulf of Maine Tuesday morning, north
winds will remain gusty early but will diminish by around
midday. Seas will remain high, up to 6 to 10 ft but will subside
to 4 to 6 ft during the afternoon. Good visibility.
Light N-NW winds early Tuesday night will veer to NE during the
night and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft early will slowly subside but will
linger at around 5 ft on the eastern waters. Good visibility
through most of the night, then may lower with scattered rain
and/or snow moving into western areas after 08Z or so.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ003-005-
006-010>012.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ022>024.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ002-004-008-
009-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237-255-
256.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231-250-251-254.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/BW
NEAR TERM...Nocera/BL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Nocera/EVT
MARINE...BL/EVT/BW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1046 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Quiet weather is expected again Tuesday, then a fast moving
weather system will bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the
north Wednesday night into early Thursday.
The positive upper height anomaly near Alaska will gradually
retrograde westward during the period, allowing troughing to
gradually develop off the West Coast. Downstream, the flow across
North America will remain at least somewhat split.
The fast, low amplitude flow across the area will generally result
the forecast area being affected by fast-moving systems
throughout the week, and the exact timing and track of those will
have low predictability. Overall however, there seems to be enough
support for precipitation to result in AOA amounts for the
period. Temperatures will generally be near to modestly above
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a
weakening front pushing east across northeast Wisconsin and the
Upper Peninsula early this afternoon. Although scattered light
flurries/sprinkles have mostly ended, widespread cloud cover
remains across much of the region. Slow clearing is taking place
over far northwest Wisconsin and western Lake Superior, just
downstream of a weak surface ridge axis located over northern
Minnesota. Perhaps partial clearing is possible over Vilas county
by the end of the afternoon, but it`s looking doubtful elsewhere.
As weather systems pass by to the north and south once again on
Tuesday, the main forecast concerns mainly revolve around cloud
trends and temps.
Tonight...Weak high pressure will pass across the state. An influx
of dry air remains expected to move across northern WI during the
evening, which makes clearing possible for a time before low level
flow becomes southeastly again and recycles moisture northward.
The push of dry air from the northwest is not particularly strong,
so not confident of straying much from the previous forecast.
This would keep more clouds across central and east-central areas
of WI through the night. Some higher resolution models spit out
scattered light precip over central WI after midnight, but
chances and impacts appear low enough to leave out of the
forecast. If skies do clear across the north tonight, wouldn`t be
surprised to see temps falling below guidance, and some patchy fog
to develop. Lows ranging from the upper teens near the U.P.
border to the lower 30s south.
Tuesday...While one storm systems passes over the Ohio Valley, the
next cold front will move into northern Minnesota late in the day.
With a modest southeast to south low level wind, clouds look to
continue to get recycled northward, which should make for a mostly
cloudy day at most locations. As a result, stayed on the colder
side of guidance with highs in the low to mid 40s at most
locations.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Once again, there has not been much change to the overall weather
scenario/forecast since yesterday. There is better agreement among
the models that a frontal wave will shift through the area
Wednesday night. Steep mid-level lapse rates and FGEN forcing of
ascent will favor a band of moderate to perhaps heavy
precipitation. But it probably won`t be very wide. So determining
where it falls and whether or not it falls far enough into the
cold air for the bulk of it to be snow is still problematic. The
overall trend seems to be toward getting a swath of 2-4 inches of
snow across north-central into far northeast Wisconsin, but there
is still greater than normal uncertainty in that for a fifth
period forecast.
The large scale set-up is still expected to be supportive of a
cyclone tracking northeast from the Plains Friday into Saturday.
The timing and track differences among the models are
considerable, and have increased since yesterday. The best chance
of significant wintry precipitation will probably again be in the
north. Will continue to mention the potential in the HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
Cigs varied between MVFR and VFR across most of the region late
this evening, with mostly clear skies across most of north-central
Wisconsin. Clouds are expected to return later tonight as winds
turn southerly. Conditions will vary between MVFR and VFR for much
of the night, however MVFR conditions are expected to become
prevalent across central and north-central Wisconsin later
tonight with VFR conditions expected across east-central Wisconsin
Tuesday morning as some drier air advects into the area. Winds
will generally be light during the TAF period.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
339 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS... A system will move into the region from the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday through Thursday bringing unsettled weather
along with cool temperatures. Conditions will dry out by the end
of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure system responsible for the recent rainfall and
higher elevation snow has moved well out of the region. Some
residual moisture has allowed for some isolated showers in the
valley. HRRR model continues the isolated showers into the evening
hours. The heaviest of the showers could produce between 1/10 to
1/4 of an inch of precipitation.
As soon as this system departs, another system is right on its
heels. A deep upper level trough will dig south along the west
coast tonight, eventually reaching Norcal by Wednesday morning.
High-resolution models bring in the majority of the pre-frontal
precipitation by Tuesday afternoon, eventually spreading
southward over the course of the evening. From Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning, a majority of the accumulations will
occur north of Fresno County, especially into the Sierra foothills
and mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Sierra north of Fresno County, where 4 to 8 inches of snowfall is
expected through Wednesday morning. Snow levels will begin around
6,000 feet and lower to 4,000 feet by Wednesday morning. A dusting
up to 2 inches is possible as low as 4000 feet. In addition,
minor rainfall accumulations are not ruled out into the southern
San Joaquin Valley north of Kings County.
Periodical precipitation is expected across the valley through
Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned deep upper level trough
moves out by late Thursday. Precipitation totals will remain on
the light side in the valley, with totals between 1/10 and 1/4 of
an inch except higher amounts in thunderstorms on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Given the cold nature of this system, there
is growing confidence that snow levels could drop as low as 3,000
feet by Thursday morning with minor accumulations possible down to
below pass level along SR-58 and I-5 through the Grapevine.
After this next system exits the area, conditions dry out as the
storm track moves north and ridging sets up across the region into
next week.
&&
.AVIATION... In the mountains, areas of IFR and mountain
obscurations expected through at least 00Z tomorrow. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail across the district the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday
for CAZ192.
&&
$$
public...CMC
aviation....BSO
weather.gov/hanford
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
505 PM PDT Mon Mar 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS...Expect showery, cooler and breezy weather through
Wednesday. A break period on or about Thursday will be followed by
more unsettled weather for next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: In the wake of a cold front, breezy west to southwest
winds with gusts to 30 mph will gradually dissipate this evening,
although most exposed areas should experience a westerly breeze
through the night. Bands of post frontal convection will track
from the upper Columbia Basin into northeast Washington and north
Idaho into the evening hours, while more orographic showers
continue through the night in the Panhandle mountains as seen in
the latest HRRR and NAM12. Snow levels 3-4K ft this evening will
lower to the valley floors overnight. Any snow accumulations
should be minor, up to a couple inches at the higher elevations
around Schweitzer, Lookout Pass and also near the Cascade crest
by Stevens Pass. Overnight lows will dip below to near freezing
across the region.
Tuesday through Wednesday: The upper level trough swings inland
and remains over the region as temperatures dip below normal. The
cold aloft coupled with March sunshine and daytime heating will
lead to an unstable atmosphere and steep lapse rates. Surface
based cape will be meager and skinny, ranging from 150 to 300
J/kg. Convection is expected to develop aided by orographics
especially over northeast WA into the ID panhandle with both rain
and snow. The more intense cells may produce graupel and a stray
lightning strike Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers chances
look to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Overnight
lows dip below freezing Tuesday night. So a dusting of light snow
is possible with any passing shower Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning before surface temperatures warm. A drier
northerly spills down the Okanogan valley into the western
Columbia Basin, where any measurable precipitation will be
limited. Anticipate westerly winds to become slightly gusty
Tuesday afternoon with speeds up to 20 mph before decreasing
Tuesday evening. Lighter winds expected for Wednesday. On
Wednesday, the upper trough axis will be focused over the central
and southern ID Panhandle with more convection and the small
chance of thunder Wednesday afternoon. Drier and more stable
conditions move across north central Washington late on Wednesday.
/rfox
Wednesday night through Monday: Upper trough slides east of the
region Wednesday evening and is replaced by a short wave ridge
Thursday resulting in drier and more stable conditions. Friday and
Saturday a split flow develops with one trough passing to the
north across British Columbia while another wave drops south off
the OR/CA coast. Thus no organized systems are expected although
models do show an increase in precipitable water entering our
region from the northwest which may lead to some light valley
rain/mountain snow mainly near the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. Sunday into Monday the northern branch of the jet
becomes established north of the Canadian border but begins to
sag south towards the region although some solutions keep it north.
This could eventually lead to more unsettled weather for early
next week. Westerly flow would favor the Cascades and Idaho
Panhandle with the highest precipitation chances while the
Columbia Basin is more likely to receive little to no
precipitation.
With the departing trough mid week and the jet stream lifting
north of the border by early next week model guidance shows a
gradual warming trend. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday
will increase to the upper 50s to mid 60s next Monday. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cool upper-level trough will slowly pass through the
region the next few days. This evening, a weak front tracking
across the eastern third of WA and N ID will bring scattered light
showers through 03z. Should see a break in the precipitation
overnight but upsloping flow into the rising terrain of Idaho
will keep a small risk through morning. The cold pool aloft will
be over the region Tuesday afternoon. Surface heating will promote
widely scattered convective showers of rain, graupel, and snow.
There is a small risk for a weak, pulse t-storm around KGEG-KCOE-
KSZT-KCQV but confidence is very low and opted to leave out of TAF
at this time. /sb
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 31 48 30 47 26 49 / 50 50 40 40 10 0
Coeur d`Alene 30 47 29 46 25 47 / 40 50 60 50 10 0
Pullman 31 47 30 46 28 47 / 0 30 10 50 10 0
Lewiston 35 52 34 50 33 52 / 0 30 20 30 10 0
Colville 29 51 28 50 23 52 / 0 50 30 20 0 0
Sandpoint 31 44 30 43 23 45 / 40 80 70 60 10 10
Kellogg 32 42 31 40 26 42 / 30 70 50 80 20 10
Moses Lake 32 55 31 54 29 57 / 0 20 10 10 0 0
Wenatchee 33 52 31 51 31 52 / 0 40 30 10 0 0
Omak 28 53 27 51 26 52 / 0 30 10 10 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
This evening will start off dry with variable cloud cover, as
high pressure moves east of the region. Late tonight/early
Tuesday morning, a warm front at H8 will lift northeast into the
area in conjunction with some mid level support. Elevated showers
and thunderstorms will move northeast across the region Tuesday
morning, with locally heavy rain, and possibly some cells with
hail, if the activity is strong enough.
The previous suite of models shifted the surface low track south
of what it had yesterday on our shift. Today, they all continue
with the southward shift. The 12z HRRR is the farthest north. The
GFS remains a bit north of consensus as well. In the end, it
looks like a limited window of opportunity in the afternoon over
mainly west Kentucky for surface based convection, that may become
severe. The low track should be somewhere close to the MO/AR and
KY/TN borders. Confidence is very low in how this will play out
given the models late in the game southward adjustment.
Any lingering convection in our eastern counties will move out
early Tuesday evening, with quiet weather returning for the
overnight through Wednesday and Wednesday night as weak high
pressure returns.
..08..
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
We will continue to gear the long term toward a blend of the
ECMWF/CMC and UKMET. Confidence in the details is up over
yesterday as the GFS has come more in line with consensus, and
overall ensemble mean solutions.
A deep positive tilt H5 trough over the west U.S. will become
split in nature, with energy pushing east across the Four Corners
region by Friday, ending up over the Great Lakes by the end of the
day Saturday.
The NBM is too slow to catch on with its PoPs, still influenced
by old GFS data. Therefore, we have lowered PoPs Thursday through
Friday as much of the area will be warm sector, with support and a
frontal boundary near our I-64 corridor region. Will keep best
chance PoPs in this area, and taper them to slight or none south
into west KY and toward the MO Bootheel.
We will increase chances Friday night into Saturday as a surface
front approaches and then moves across the area. As the front and
its parent system push east, northeast, we will dry out Saturday
night, with dry weather Sunday through Monday. Temperatures will
be above normal Thursday through Saturday, then closer to normal
Sunday and Monday.
..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020
As of early this evening, kmvn continues to struggle with mvfr cigs
on its doorstep. Otherwise, only high level clouds above 12k feet
continue across the region. Through tonight, little change is
expected in sky cover. The mvfr cigs around kmvn will likely drift
away from that area this evening.
On Tuesday, widespread rain and sct tsra will overspread most taf
sites in the morning. The timing will be closer to noon in the
kevv/kowb areas. Cigs will lower to ifr within a few hours of the
onset of steady rain. Winds will become east tonight and northeast
on Tuesday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Short Term...08
Long Term...08
Aviation...MY