Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/22/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
917 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this time. UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 A shortwave, currently over eastern North Dakota, and surface low pressure system over western South Dakota will push east across the region tonight. With a fairly dry atmosphere, these systems should pass through most of the CWA dry. There may be enough moisture and lift in the eastward CWA for scattered flurries. The past couple of runs of the HRRR does support the potential of light snow tonight into the early morning hours on Sunday. Another weak upper level trough and surface low pressure system will track across the region Sunday afternoon through Monday night. This system could bring light rain during the afternoon hours in the Pierre area. As the system pushes east, the rain may transition over to all snow over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. No significant snow accumulations are expected. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 The extended period starts with westerly quasi-zonal flow aloft and a surge of warm air. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday range from the upper 40s into the low 60s for some areas. Models do hint at a minor shortwave passing through late monday night into Tuesday that could bring some light precipitation in our eastern forecast region. Given the warmer temperatures at the start of the work week, only rain is expected during this time frame. Wednesday will see a better chance at widespread precipitation as a long wave trough digs into the rockies and a stronger shortwave is ejected out of the southwest CONUS moving northeast into the northern and central plains. A mixture of precipitation with light accumulating snow is possible, however there are still model inconsistencies with timing and track of this system. With passage of this system, cold air advection moves over the region again and temperatures drop for the latter half of the work week with highs expected in the upper 30s to mid 40s through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 An area of MVFR cigs will linger over the far eastern part of the CWA through the evening, including at KATY. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail tonight and through the day Sunday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Dye AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
946 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Perky upper level shortwave trough currently dropping southeast into ND, per latest watervapor satellite imagery, and progged to drop across central MN and across northern WI overnight through Sun morning. Good QG convergence accompanies the shortwave, stronger in the 700:300 mb layer and between 00-12z. Some weak north-south running frontogenetic lift indicated along with isentropic upglide on the 280:290 K sfcs (mostly from 06-15z). 300 mb jet streak could enhance the available lift overnight. All in all, the shortwave has enough going for it to spark an area of pcpn - main question is will it have enough saturation? Dry easterly push across WI has dewpoints in the single digits to low teens currently, and will continue that trend tonight. Mid/upper level saturation will accompany the shortwave while a mid deck of clouds ahead of the trough works in from the west. As for low saturation, all the models suggest it will be on the increase this evening (bufkit soundings, RH fields, time/height x-sections), increasing the likelihood for pcpn and some minor accumulations. Most models keep only light pcpn chances across northern parts of mn/wi late tonight into Sun morning. However, meso models suggest there could be some light pcpn this evening as the isentropic upglide works on/increases the low saturation (drizzle look). The RAP and HRRR then latch onto the better chances with the shortwave for Sun morning, mostly north but perhaps a bit more south than the NAM/GFS. Will increase chances for this evening (mainly southeast MN) with concerns for light pcpn, then trend back to the north with the high chances overnight. On its heels, another shortwave trough will be lifting northeast into the southern portions of the great lakes by Sun evening. Some upper level qg convergence and low level thermodynamics found with this feature along with west-east running frontogenetic support. Latest track of this shortwave would bring pcpn chances to southern portions of the forecast area for the afternoon-evening. Timing favors rain as the main pcpn type. Meanwhile, some hints that a weak ripple in the upper level flow could shift in from the west later Sunday which could result in a smattering of pcpn. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Models favoring a mostly zonal flow a loft for the new week with temperatures moderating back to, or warming above, the late March normals. The GFS and EC also favor sliding shortwave troughs across and/or near the local forecast area, with resulting pcpn chances. The first trough of note looks to move east/northeast out of desert southwest, sliding across the mid mississippi river valley Tue. Models in decent agreement with keeping the associated sfc low well south, tracking across the oh river valley, but with enough lift north of there that pcpn would reach across (at least) southern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures/time of day favor mostly rain, although could see a little snow mixed in at front and back ends. Another shortwave through is then progged to kick out of the southern rockies, spinning across the upper mississippi river valley wed/wed night. Current track would result in widespread pcpn, mostly rain but with snow mixing in (or changing over to) overnight Wed as the system departs. Models have differing ideas how the rest of the week will shake out, although both still suggest that other bits of upper level energy could impact the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Light snow continues to spread across the area but is struggling to reach the ground due to some lingering dryness in the low levels. Most of this activity expected to clear out of RST by the start of the TAF period with LSE seeing a small chance through around daybreak. VFR conditions expected to persist until low level moisture begins to increase Sunday afternoon. That will likely lead to MVFR ceilings by late afternoon or early evening. There are some hints of RST perhaps dropping to IFR by late in the TAF period, but left this out for now due to lower confidence that far out. Southeast winds the rest of tonight will increase a bit towards daybreak with some gustiness likely during the day at RST. Winds will become more southerly late in the day. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rieck LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...Kurz
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1044 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Fairly quiet early spring weather is anticipated through at least the first half of the upcoming work week. The potential for more active weather will increase for the latter part of the work week and into next weekend. High upper heights will persist over the northeast Pacific throughout the period. That will initially result in a continuation of split flow downstream across North America. However, as a trough settles into the Canadian Archipelago during the latter part of the period, the trend will be for the westerlies across the CONUS to become more consolidated, with mid- continent troughing and ridging from the Gulf of Mexico to the mid-Atlantic states. A few scattered/light precipitation events are likely during the first half of the forecast period, with the potential for more significant precipitation increasing thereafter. The total precipitation for the period will depend primarily on what falls late in the period and thus is more uncertain than normal. The best guess is for near normal amounts. Temperatures will begin the period below normal, then warm and oscillate between near and modestly above normal. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high pressure centered over the northern Great Lakes early this afternoon. East winds south of the high center is pushing a band of clouds and snow showers/flurries off Lake Michigan and into the northeast WI shoreline. Some of these flurries have reached as far west as Marinette. Think these snow showers/flurries will diminish as they move inland later this afternoon. Looking to the west, a compact shortwave is diving southeast across North Dakota. Clouds ahead of this system are already moving into far southwest Wisconsin. As this shortwave moves across the region, light snow chances are the main forecast concern in the short term. Tonight...Skies will generally start out mostly clear at the start of the evening. High pressure will be drifting off to the east, but there may be enough time for temps to nose dive over far northeast WI. As clouds increase from the west late in the evening into overnight, temps should become relatively steady, and may even rise a bit in the cold spots. Precip chances haven`t changed much late tonight as moisture looks disjointed despite the compact nature of the system. Lift from this shortwave will go a long way towards saturating a very dry airmass left over from the departing high. Forecast soundings suggest a brief period of light snow or flurries remains likely over parts of central and north- central WI late tonight. Perhaps a dusting will be possible. Lows ranging from the low teens near the U.P. border to the middle 20s over the southern Fox Valley. Sunday...The shortwave will quickly move into eastern Upper Michigan by midday Sunday. Lift and mid-level moisture will depart with the shortwave, leaving behind broken cloud cover. Suppose its possible that flurries could linger a little longer, but will have light snow chances ending by midday Sunday. Maybe a tenth or two of accumulations are possible early Sunday morning. Temps will be warmer, and range from the middle 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 The forecast area could get clipped by northern and southern stream shortwaves crossing the region Sunday night. The best forcing from each will pass north and south of the area, so went with low-end PoPs. Precipitation type would most likely be snow, though some rain is possible if precipitation begins before the boundary layer cools off in the evening. Overall, the most likely outcome is that most of the area will get just trace amounts or stay dry. Edged temperatures up a little due to the expected cloud cover. Another low-end precipitation chance will occur Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. There is still plenty of uncertainty in the timing and track of systems during the latter part of the period, but the large scale pattern will be much more supportive of significant precipitation producing systems by that time. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Clouds will continue to thicken and lower overnight as an upper level system approaches from the west. Moisture will be limited, however upstream observations show the system is bringing some light snow and some MVFR conditions as it passes through. Only minor accumulations are expected, mainly over central and north- central Wisconsin later tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions should then return to VFR Sunday afternoon in the wake of this system. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......Skowronski AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Surface ridge continues to shift to the east into the Ozarks today, with return flow and temperatures closer to normal today. Next shortwave (currently over srn NM) will lift NE into the plains for tonight, moving across KS by Sunday morning. Low level moisture return ahead of this shortwave looks to increase during the evening hours for most of the southern plains. Latest short range models suggest this moisture will be delayed and previous shifts adjusted the arrival of pops until after 03z. The combination of the lift and the moisture transport ahead of it, suggests showers will overspread the area tonight, and linger across most of the area until Sun morning. Along with the moisture transport, also noticed short range models are showing a little bit of elevated instability, so added an isolated thunder mention for areas across south central KS. Looking at the latest RAP model data, moisture transport doesn`t look that impressive, as the shortwave moves across, which may limit the amount QPF expected, even with the lift. So adjusted QPF amounts down some, to mainly around quarter of inch for most locations, with the highest amounts across the Flint Hills. Warm advection associated with the moisture transport suggests that this will be cold rain event with minimum temperatures in the upper 30s tonight. The slower moisture return also suggests that the light rain may linger for most locations into the morning hours on Sun. The morning rain and cloud cover will certainly limit max temperatures on Sun with temperatures expected to only be in the lower to middle 50s. The next shortwave in the zonal flow will be quickly on the heels of tonights shortwave, with this next shortwave moving across the southern Rockies into the plains for Mon afternoon into Mon evening. As the shortwave approaches for Mon afternoon, latest GFS and ECMWF suggests that a low pressure area will develop across either the OK Panhandle or SW KS with a dryline setting up across SW KS or wrn OK for Mon afternoon. Will have to keep an eye on this setup, as bulk shear and directional shear looks impressive. But there are still differences, when it comes to timing and location of the low pressure area and expected dryline for Mon afternoon/evening. Latest GFS, looks to be the most ominous when it comes to a severe weather chance for the forecast area, including supercells for portions of southern KS, as the warm front pushes to along highway 50. Latest ECMWF places the low further south, which would keep the higher severe chances further to the south over northern OK. The NAM/WRF is even slower, which may limit the severe weather risk for the forecast area. Limiting factor for widespread severe weather will be the marginal instability (GFS MLCAPE values showing 500-750 J/kg). Still looks like a good chance of showers and thunderstorms for most of the forecast area by Mon evening, with strong to marginally severe storms (even some supercell structures) given the impressive shear, low instability setup. At this time dime to half dollar hail looks like the main impact. But if the GFS verifies, a tornado cannot be ruled out along the KS/OK border. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 Dry and mild conditions are expected for the middle of the week, with max temperatures climbing back above normal. Medium range models show a weak cold front will push across the area late Wed night or early Thu. Consensus suggests a dry frontal passage as moisture will be limited. Frontal boundary looks to slow or stall across southern KS late Thu night. Overrunning moisture associated with another weak shortwave in the zonal flow, may lead to a chance of showers and embedded storms for late Thu across southern KS. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2020 *TSRA possible across southern Kansas tonight* *Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions tonight through Sunday* An upper level wave is moving out of the Four Corners region at this time, and will move across the Central/Southern Plains overnight. Current radar imagery shows minimal SHRA/TSRA activity over Colorado and New Mexico. However, moisture is moving quickly north into Kansas at this time and should lead to a fairly rapid development of widespread SHRA and perhaps an isolated TSRA between 03z/10pm and 06z/1am tonight. SHRA/isolated TSRA will then continue into Sunday morning, before quickly ending from west to east by the late-morning or early afternoon hours. For now, thinking the best chance of TSRA impacts will be southern Kansas. Given ongoing lightning along the Front Range of the Rockies, as well as decent model agreement with instability, I felt confident enough to add a TSRA mention at KICT. This may need to be added to KHUT and KCNU with later updates if confidence increases there. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 40 56 39 62 / 100 40 10 20 Hutchinson 38 54 36 62 / 90 40 10 20 Newton 38 52 37 61 / 100 70 10 20 ElDorado 39 54 39 62 / 100 80 10 20 Winfield-KWLD 41 58 42 64 / 100 50 10 20 Russell 37 52 33 62 / 80 40 10 20 Great Bend 37 55 33 62 / 90 30 10 20 Salina 38 50 34 62 / 90 80 10 20 McPherson 37 52 34 60 / 90 60 10 20 Coffeyville 42 55 43 65 / 100 70 10 10 Chanute 40 52 41 62 / 100 90 20 20 Iola 39 52 40 62 / 100 90 20 20 Parsons-KPPF 41 54 43 64 / 100 80 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...RM