Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Eastern NM will remain socked in with low clouds and areas of BR and FG well into Monday morning. LIFR to IFR conditions will prevail through this area. There may be a little drizzle or light rain in the northeast this evening. VFR conditions will prevail central and west. && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Low clouds and patchy fog will continue across the east again tonight. Monday will be sunny and warmer, but clouds and thunderstorms increase across the eastern plains on Tuesday ahead of the next storm system. Widespread wetting precipitation, including thunderstorms, high elevation snow showers, breezy to windy conditions, and cooler temperatures will sweep through the state Wednesday and Thursday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible along and east of the central mountain chain, particularly on Thursday. Friday will be slightly warmer and drier, but precipitation chances return to the northern mountains on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Based on current radar trends, not expecting much more than light rain or drizzle for the rest of the day across the plains. That said, the HREF and HRRR continue to show a shower or storm developing northwest of KLVS later this afternoon where the sun is still trying to peak out. Therefore, if anything more substantial were to develop, it would probably be around this location. Otherwise, low clouds and fog will persist through the overnight period across eastern NM. It is likely that the low clouds and fog will nudge up against to the central mountain chain overnight, and perhaps squeak through Glorieta Pass and move over Santa Fe briefly. Dense fog is probable again tonight, and would not be surprised to see more widespread Dense Fog Advisories issued. The fog and low clouds should clear out from west to east Monday morning, as dry, southwest winds aloft mix down to the surface. Low clouds may linger in the southeast til noon or shortly thereafter. Still expecting some light southwest breezes in the afternoon Monday with at or above normal temperatures. Expect the moisture that was scoured out to return across portions of the plains Monday night. A weak front nosing into NE NM may also cause concern for low clouds and/or fog. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Gulf moisture will be pushing northward into the Land of Enchantment on Tuesday ahead of the next storm system currently off the coast of central California. Both models have low-level moisture pushing into eastern New Mexico, but the NAM doesn`t have it mixing out during the day. There is an SPC slight risk barely bordering Curry and Roosevelt counties. Should the moisture stay in place, there will be better chances for thunderstorms across the plains, and potentially severe weather as well. Steep mid- level lapse rates and and robust low- level moisture should provide enough instability for these storms, should they develop. By Wednesday, the southernmost low in the coupled system will begin to approach the Four Corners region. Precipitation will start out as rain across much of the state Wednesday, but 700 mb temperatures will drop to -8/-9 C Wednesday night as the core of this system moves overhead. The northern mountains could accumulate several inches of new snow, along with the western high terrain. This could be a more widespread snow event than the storm seen late last week. Breezy to windy conditions are also expected Wednesday, and especially Thursday, with the passage of the Pacific cold front. Wind gusts could reach upwards of 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain, but High Wind Warnings don`t seem out of the question at this point. Precipitation chances gradually diminish by late Thursday. Temperatures warm slightly on Friday with southwest flow aloft, but will still be below normal for mid to late March. Precipitation chances increase across the northern mountains Saturday as a weak upper-level trough passes aloft. It is unclear what happens to the aforementioned northern low, as part of the double- barreled system, as the GFS wants to absorb it into the next system. Some uncertainty gets thrown into the forecast at this point, but unsettled conditions seem to remain through early next week. 34/31 && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread low clouds and patchy fog will continue to impact eastern NM through tonight, before clearing out late Monday morning, as dry, southwesterly flow mixes down to the surface. Meanwhile, light southwest breezes and above normal temps will continue through the rest of the day across western NM. Near to above normal temperatures are expected area wide for Monday. Good or better vent rates are also expected for Monday. On Monday night, the moisture will slosh back into the plains and may set the stage for a few thunderstorms across far eastern NM on Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, southwest breezes will pick up a few more notches, and vent rates will improve accordingly. Another round of widespread precipitation is expected Wednesday through Wednesday night, with orographic lift allowing precip to continue over the mountains on Thursday. Initially, most of the precip will fall as rain, but snow levels will lower Wednesday night to between 5500 and 6500 feet. On Thursday, strong westerly winds are expected, particularly so across eastern NM where wind gusts could exceed 50 mph. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
902 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Overall the forecast is in good shape. Radar is indicating some potential drizzle/fzdz developing over the James valley, and soundings to some degree support that with weak LL omega over a fairly deep LL moisture layer. All the clouds and some mixing will keep temperatures relatively mild overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Taking a look at the current surface weather picture, strong high pressure was across north central MT and much of southwestern Canada. A trough was set up over the far western Dakotas was extending from far southwestern WY/southern ID/UT/NV area. At 500mb mainly zonal flow continues, with a large low off the northern CA/OR coast, and a secondary trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan. This was bringing some energy across ND, with light precipitation through much of the day. Farther south light snow, and potentially freezing drizzle only briefly moved along the ND/SD border today. The surface trough crossing central SD late tonight and exiting to southeastern SD by midday Monday will bring with it a light wintry mix of precipitation. While the HRRR and RAP13 do indicate a higher potential move over central SD overnight, have just gone with slight chances for the most part. Will need to monitor the latest trends on this one. Have highlighted the potential for freezing drizzle in the HWO over the Prairie Coteau overnight as surface temperatures fall below freezing and there isn`t much of a freezing layer aloft to produce dendrites. Still, expecting little to no accumulation. Dry high pressure will build in from the northwest Monday afternoon, and linger across the listening area through much of Tuesday. So we`ll still be cool with highs Monday in the mid to upper 30s, with temperatures about 5 degrees below average for this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 Will start the period with high pressure in place, gradually shifting east and giving us low level easterly flow. NAM and GFS BUFKIT profiles indicate a layer of saturation through around 6kft, with enough weak warm advection that this may push the lowest part of that layer above freezing, while the top part of the profile stays outside the range of the dendritic growth zone. This would present as drizzle thanks to weak low level isentropic ascent. Given ground temperatures above freezing, freezing drizzle shouldn`t be an issue. Deterministic guidance has a decent degree of consistency concerning a low developing in Wyoming and ejecting into Nebraska. This will enhance ascent across the CWA, however a storm track currently south of Omaha means the southern half of the State will be the focus area for any winter weather. BUFKIT profiles this far north show saturation throughout the column, however lift is well above the dendritic growth zone. As the low develops we also see a northwest to southeast gradient of around 20-30mb across the state, and pressure rises about 13mb/6hrs. 1/2 km winds are also around 50kts. 925mb temperatures under a 1040mb high that follows are about 2 standard deviations below climo, so it will feel a bit like we`ve moved back into winter for a bit next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2020 IFR/MVFR cigs are expected through the night at all terminals. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible, especially around KATY. Some improvement in the cigs will come Monday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TDK SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...TDK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
905 PM PDT Sun Mar 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Cool and showery conditions will continue overnight and into Monday morning, mainly south and east of the Golden Gate. Showers will diminish by Monday afternoon. Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through the end of the week, but rain chances will continue at times through at least Thursday. Another weather system may then bring more widespread precipitation to the region next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...As of 9:05 PM PDT Sunday...A nearly stationary upper low remains centered just off the northern California coast this evening. To the south and east of the low, bands of showers continue to track inland across the central and southern San Francisco Bay Area, as well as the Monterey Bay Area. Rainfall rates are mostly light this evening, but similar to last night there have been locally moderate to heavy rain rates around Watsonville and north and east across portions of the Santa Cruz Mountains and Diablo Mountains. The 00Z NAM and latest HRRR both indicate that shower activity overnight will mostly be confined to areas where rain is currently falling, with highest amounts expected across the southern half of our forecast area. Based on the NAM and HRRR, a half inch to an inch of additional rainfall is likely through Monday morning from San Mateo and Contra Costa Counties southward, with much lighter amounts to the north. Widespread shower activity is expected to shift off to the south and east of our area by Monday afternoon as the upper low offshore finally begins to track to the south. Thus, only scattered shower activity is expected Monday afternoon and evening. As the low drops south off the Central Coast by late Monday night and Tuesday, it is forecast to elongate to the northeast into northern Nevada and then very slowly shift to the east. Although shower activity will diminish as the week progresses, enough moisture and instability will remain for shower chances to remain in the forecast through at least Thursday. Snow levels are forecast to drop as low as 2500 feet by Monday and snow accumulation is likely across higher elevations, and particularly across the southern Diablo Range and Santa Lucia Mountains where precipitation amounts will be highest. Temperatures will remain well below normal going into Monday with highs mostly ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows mostly in the upper 30s and 40s. Daytime temperatures are then forecast to gradually warm from Tuesday through Friday, but nights will remain cool. Winds will not be much of a factor going forward, with mainly light to moderate wind speeds forecast through the week ahead. Forecast confidence in the longer range has diminished due to model inconsistencies and disagreement. Yesterday`s model runs indicated that the next upper low dropping south along the coast would bring another round of widespread rain as early as Friday. But the latest models delay rain from that system until Saturday night or Sunday (ECMWF) or even later (GFS). But the upshot is that the weather pattern looks to remain unsettled with periodic rain chances continuing through at least the next 7 to 10 days. && of 4:55 PM PDT Sunday...For 00Z TAFs. Breaks in cloud cover over the North Bay as the main boundary sits over KSFO extending northeastward to the East Bay Hills. Despite the cloud cover over the South Bay, extending southward, mostly VFR conditions. Rain continues around the Bay Area as the system continues to slowly move southeastward. The chances for thunderstorms remains low and therefore was kept out of the TAFs. As the leading edge passes, expect intermittent rain showers through the TAF period, with another round of rain showers expected Monday afternoon for the region. Cigs will lower overnight to MVFR conditions, with isolated terminals seeing bases drop to 1500 feet. Gusty winds will taper off this evening and lighten. By tomorrow, the winds will switch around to offshore and become locally breezy. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR with rain showers near terminals as the main front sits right over KSFO at 00z. Ceilings are still forecast to drop this evening to around 2,500 ft for MVFR conditions, but will break up and lift tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain gusty along the front, but will lighten after it passes within the hour for KSFO and slightly later for points east. Winds will be offshore on Monday with locally breezier conditions. SFO Bridge Approach...Scattered varying broken at 2,500 overnight as cigs lower near terminal with showers in the vicinity. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently with locally gusty winds ahead of the front. Cigs are forecast to lower late this evening as low as 1,500 ft rain showers near, if not over, terminals. Winds will taper off in the next few hours as the front passes, with offshore and breezy winds forecast Monday. && .MARINE...As of 8:28 PM PDT Sunday...The weather system producing all of Sunday`s rain is slowly moving down California coastline. Breaks in the rain over the northern waters are possible as the main front is south of San Francisco at this time, though scattered to widespread showers over the coastal waters through midweek. Winds have been gusty, particularly near heavy rain, but as conditions are forecast to gradually improve, the winds will diminish by late week. The northwest swell will continue and gradually subside early this week along with a smaller southerly swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: DK MARINE: DK Visit us at Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: