Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/13/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 1035 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

At 2 PM, a cold front extended from Diamond Lake WI to Oelwein IA.
Showers were found along and ahead of this front. The RAP
continues to rise the surface CAPES up to 400 J/kg across eastern
northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. However, this model also
has it dry down there, so it is likely that these forecast CAPES
are too high. This will greatly limit the potential of any
thunderstorms from occurring in this area.

In the wake of the front, there is another area of instability
showers from the Twin Cities northeast into Lake Superior. The
meso models continue to show that some of these showers will move
through the area late this afternoon and evening. These showers
will produce mainly rain. However, if the boundary layer cools
enough, there may be either a rain and snow mix or just snow. If
snow occurs, the amounts will be just a dusting. In addition to
the showers, northwest winds will gust into the 25 to 40 mph
range. These winds gusts will gradually weaken during the
overnight.

During the late evening and overnight, skies will gradually clear
from the southwest. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s.

On Friday, high pressure will build across the region. Skies will
be mostly to partly sunny and high temperatures will range from
the mid-30s to mid-40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The weekend continues to look quiet with broad mid/upper-level
ridging developing while dry surface high pressure centered to the
north across Canada noses into the region. Most guidance is in
agreement that precip associated with an upper trough moving from
the central plains into the mid-MS Valley on Saturday remains south
of the area, but will have to watch for the northern edge of the
precip possibly reaching sections of northern IA. Temps will be
close to seasonal norms through the weekend.

A shortwave trough dropping across the northern Great Lakes late
Monday/Monday night will drag a weak front through with high
pressure following behind. Some potential for a bit of light
rain/snow exists during this time as the shortwave passes, but
amounts look quite minor at best.

Later in the week, deep southwest flow is forecast to develop with
potential for increased precip chances. Confidence in how the
western trough and surface low evolve are low at this time, but
higher moisture anomalies already evident in the NAEFS indicate this
system would have more abundant moisture to work with. Temps will
continue to remain fairly typical for mid-March with highs mostly in
the 40s next week, possibly a few 50s in spots.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Cigs: MVFR clouds have exited, but more mostly VFR cigs lie
upstream. Meso models sink these south through the overnight, but
suggest they will slow/hold up just north of the TAF sites. Will
follow this trend for now. High clouds will start to push in from
the south by Fri evening,

WX/vsby: no impacts currently expected.

Winds: going to stay strong and gusty through the overnight hours,
with winds not dropping off much as we move into Fri (although gusts
will be on the way down). Sfc pressure gradient finally starts to
slacken later in the day Fri, and so will the winds.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 1049 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach the region tomorrow and move east
tomorrow night. High pressure will build toward the region
later Saturday through Sunday, then move east on Monday. A
frontal system is expected to move into the region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM Update...Clouds are developing as they lift ne. Latest
satellite imagery showed basically clear skies across the
eastern areas. This has allowed temps to drop back into the
upper teens such as in Presque Isle, where the temp was 18F.
Played for overnight temps to drop a bit more across the region,
especially northern and eastern areas. Temps will then level off
w/the clouds thickening up. Adjusted the overnight mins to bring
them up a few degrees back across the Piscataquis region.
Otherwise, no other changes.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will deepen to around 985 mb and progress towards
James Bay by 12z Friday. A very strong pressure gradient will
set up between the low and an area of high pressure around 1035
mb over the Ungava Bay. A strengthening low level jet is
expected along this gradient, which will advect copious amounts
of moisture northward with PWATs just below an inch by 18z
Friday. The jet will also advect mild air aloft northward, with
a significant warm nose noted on forecast soundings around 800mb
during the time of heaviest precipitation early Friday
afternoon. At the surface and lower levels, the warm front will
fail to reach north of Downeast areas, with an occluded front
passing across the north and a weak secondary low forming along
the triple point. A transition to sleet, rain, and patchy
freezing rain over the coolest spots is anticipated by the
afternoon. Some cold air damming may occur along higher terrain
and within valleys across northern and western Maine Friday,
which could lead to patchy freezing rain persisting longer over
these areas. There is still some discrepancy among guidance
regarding how far north mixed precipitation will reach, with the
Canadian and 18z HRRR on the cold side, keeping the far north
mostly snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
northwestern forecast zones 1 and 3. The most significant snow
and sleet accumulations are expected across far northern parts
of zone 1 near Estcourt Station, where locally higher amounts
may exceed the 6 inch value mentioned in the advisory. Any areas
that remain mostly snow will experience blowing snow given wind
gusts of up to around 35 to 40 mph. Decided to leave blowing
snow out of the forecast for now given uncertainty with
precipitation types. Precipitation will end quickly Friday
evening as a dry slot moves in from the west.

Aside from the wintry precipitation across the north, winds will
pick up from the south with a low level jet during the day
Friday. The jet will strengthen from west to east, with the
strongest winds over Coastal Washington County mid to late
Friday afternoon. Two out of three parameters used in a local
research study to diagnose high wind events along the coast are
forecast to be met, including a pressure gradient of around 12
millibars between Fryeburg and Eastport 18z Friday. Decided to
tone down wording on power outages in the wind advisory to
isolated to scattered given relatively dry soil conditions and
lack of foliage on trees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Fri night parent low wl hv lifted acrs the srn tip of James Bay
while the secondary low wl hv lifted thur the state and into wrn New
Brunswick with vry little in the way of showers left bhnd. H5 trof
wl be mvg acrs the CWA thru Fri night with lingering rain/snow
showers as well as low-lvl stratus acrs the north and west bfr
diminishing Sat morning.  Min temps Sat morning wl be abv normal as
vry little cold air wl be advected in with skies rmng cldy and winds
staying up as pressure gradient rmns tight.

Cyclonic flow conts drg the day Sat with stratocu expected acrs the
area. Another windy day is expected with gusts between 30 and 35kts,
especially acrs the higher terrain in the afternoon. Winds remain up
Sat night as 1050mb sfc high very slow edges twd the area fm Ontario
but does not really begin to appch the region until vry late in the
pd. NW flow continues to bring in stratocu to the north on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upr lvl ridge wl be the dominant wx-maker thru the early part of
next week. Temperatures wl be moderating with high pressure moving
offshore on Monday and return flow kicking in. The next wave of low
pressure mvs thru Canada on Tuesday with warm advection pcpn
developing Tue morning. Light snow is expected at the onset and with
warm air mvg north expect most locations to go over to rain in the
afternoon before changing back to snow showers behind cold front Tue
night. At this time it appears as though qpf will be light, on the
order of 0.1-0.25 inches as it looks to be a fairly progressive
system mainly in zonal flow. High pressure then builds in thru the
end of the long term portion of the forecast with temperatures
moderating to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR this evening becoming IFR overnight with rain
from BGR south, SN changing to RA at HUL, and SN changing to a
RA/SN/IP mix north of HUL. Conditions improving to VFR Downeast
by 23z Friday. Strong southeast winds are expected during the
day Friday, with gusts peaking around 30 to 35 knots from west
to east during the afternoon before decreasing and shifting
west-southwest by the evening.

SHORT TERM:
Fri night-Sat night...VFR at Downeast terminals. MVFR
restrictions possible across the north in low cigs. W 10-20kts
gusting to near 30kts on Saturday.

Sun-Mon night...VFR. NW 5-15kts becoming light out of the SW Mon
morning.

Tue...MVFR in the morning becoming IFR early in -ra and -sn. S
5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas quickly increase to SCA levels early
Friday morning, then to gales by mid to late morning with
increasing southerly winds. The strongest winds will occur
across eastern waters, where a few gusts to storm force cannot
be ruled out. Winds relax briefly from west to east and shift
direction to WSW Friday evening.

SHORT TERM: Gales will continue through midnight Fri night but
will very slowly drop into Sat morning. Strong SCA conditions continue
through Sun morning. SCA level winds persist through Sun night.
Seas will drop from around 11 feet down to near 5 ft Sat night.
Seas remain aob 5 ft into Tue morning before increasing in srly
swell.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     MEZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     MEZ001.
     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

 817 PM MST Thu Mar 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight as a low pressure system moves across Arizona. Expect
rises in area waterways, these cresting on Friday. Flash flooding
is likely overnight, especially south of the Mogollon Rim. Snow
levels will fall to about 6000-6500 feet on Friday morning, with
lingering showers continuing into Saturday. Look for a drying
trend over the weekend ahead of a cold Pacific storm system
arriving as early as Tuesday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Area radars show increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the southern half of Arizona this evening. The HRRR model
is capturing the current situation well, and shows widespread
precipitation to continue moving northward overnight as the upper
low moves into Arizona. We are forecasting additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches through 5 am Friday for most areas along
and south of the Mogollon Rim, and are observing similar amounts
at some stations between Phoenix and Blythe. Areas north of the
Mogollon Rim are looking at .25 to .50 inch accumulations
overnight. Snow levels to fall early Friday morning and commuters
in the Flagstaff, Williams, Munds Park area may see an inch or two
of snow. Friday looking colder and unsettled with convective
showers expected. Additional liquid accumulations to be much less
than tonight.


The current forecast is in good shape with no updates planned.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /351 PM MST/...Heavy rainfall will be the main
forecast issue through the overnight hours into Friday morning.
Strong thunderstorms are already developing over the Phoenix area
in association with modest instability and high shear. Expect
storms to develop northward into Yavapai and Gila counties later
this afternoon, with a distinct band of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms moving from south to north across Yavapai and Gila
counties late tonight. This band should weaken as it moves north
of the Mogollon Rim, but should still produce enough rain for a
flash flooding concern in the Grand Canyon area, including Supai.

CBRFC forecast hydrographs show a number of creeks and streams in
Yavapai and Gila counties cresting above action stage, or even
above minor flood stage, on Friday. In addition, it should be
assumed through and just after the period of heaviest rainfall
overnight tonight that most low water crossings south of the
Mogollon Rim will be flooded. When you encounter water over the
road, turn around, don`t drown!

The snow level is forecast to drop down to 6000-6500 feet or so as
heights fall over northern Arizona early Friday morning. A couple
inches of snow may accumulate from Williams to Flagstaff during
this time. Otherwise, the greater snow amounts are expected on the
highest mountain peaks above 8000 feet.

Saturday through Monday...temperatures should warm from the mid
40s on Saturday to the mid 50s on Sunday and Monday with mainly
dry weather expected.

Tuesday through next week...ensemble guidance indicates a much
colder system next week, with accumulating snow likely for high
elevation locations. The most probable time for snow would be in
the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, though some uncertainty still
exists. Please check back for updates as this forecast continues
to evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Cigs/vsby in the MVFR range
through 14z Friday, dropping to IFR under the band of heavy
precipitation as it moves from south to north, exiting into Utah
around 14z. Some TSRA are expected through 12z, mainly along and
south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.

MVFR-IFR cigs/vsby to continue beyond 14z Friday as a stratus
deck to remain through the day. Scattered showers with MVFR/IFR to
persist through 06z Sat for most of the area, the exception is
for the northeast quarter of the state which should see decreasing
shower coverage and improving cigs. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure area will begin to cross
Arizona this afternoon with showers increasing and then continuing
through Friday. The snow level will lower to around 7000 feet by
Friday morning.

.Saturday through Monday...The chances for rain and high elevation
snow will continue on Saturday. Dry and warmer conditions are
forecast for Sunday lasting into Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR AZZ006-008-018-
037-038.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL/AT
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...AT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

 721 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Aloft: RAP tropopause analyses indicate the same pattern we`ve
seen since late Nov: Split over the CONUS with a cut-off low off
Srn CA...and confluent flow over the Plns with a ridge over the
Cntrl/Srn Plns and a trof over the Nrn Plns. W flow was currently
over NEB/KS. The low off CA will move inland tonight...and this
will force a shrtwv ridge to crest over the CWA Fri AM with SW
flow developing as it moves downstream Fri afternoon. Meanwhile
...the low will weaken and open up into a trof over the Desert SW.

Surface: The cool front that moved thru this morning extended
from the OH Vly to the Red Rvr to low pres over Ern NM. 1020 mb
high pres over WY was building into the rgn. This high will
strengthen to 1026 mb tonight as it slides into NEB...pushing the
front deeper into the S.

Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny...but there will be some
thin cirrostratus and stratocu around. The stratocu will start to
fade after 5 PM. Temps will peak in the 50s. N-NNW winds will cont
15-25 kt but gustiness should diminish below 30 kt.

Tonight: Mostly clear to start...but incrsg clds from SW-NE.
Winds becoming calm.

Fri: Becoming cldy. Rain will gradually overspread the CWA from
the SW...mainly from late morning on. Areas W of Hwy 281 should
mix with or change to snow late afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Used
consensus of all mdl guidance for highs...and then the hourly
temps as well after 18Z...as temps should fall W of Hwy 281 as
pcpn moves in and becomes heavier.

See precip section below for more details and the most impactful
part of this event will be Fri night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Pattern: Same old...same old. No change from the last svrl
months. A ridge will remain over the E Pac with a longwave trof
over the Wrn USA. Confluent flow will be over the Plns or Ern USA.
The one thing that is diff from the rest of this cold season is
the amplitude. The E Pac ridge will extend all the way up into AK.
With a pseudo high-over-low configuration over the E Pac...the
EPO is fcst to plunge strongly negative. This is usually a strong
sign that Arctic air will pour S into the Wrn/Cntrl USA. Am not
really seeing signs of that in the temp guidance...but if the mdls
are right at 500 mb...am expecting the fcst to turn colder.

Another feature associated with a -EPO is that pattern is very
cldy here.

Aloft: The Desert SW shrtwv trof will lift NE and cross the CWA
Sat AM. Anticyclonic WSW flow will then develop overhead Sat-Tue.
The flow is then fcst to become more amplified with SW flow next
Wed-Thu. The next low that will dive down the W coast is fcst to
move inland on those days...but there is significant uncertainty
in the mdls as to how it will evolve.

Surface: High pres will drift E of the rgn Fri night into
Sat...while wk low pres develops over the Srn Plns. Extremely
strong (1050+ mb) and expansive high pres will form over Wrn
Canada. Part of this high will break off and head into Ern Canada
thru the wknd. That means lots of E flow here. A wk cool front
will form over the Nrn Plns Mon and that will cross the CWA Mon
eve. High pres will quickly cross the Nrn Plns Tue. Low pres is
then fcst to form over CO Wed-Thu with another big high scooting E
acrs Srn Can. A cool front is fcst to sag into Neb Wed and become
stall acrs Nrn KS.

Overall fcst confidence is above average. There is uncertainty in
pcpn chances.

Temps: Normal low/high temps are around 26 and 50 respectively.
Temps will be much cooler than normal Sat-Sun. The cold will ease
by Mon...but temps will probably remain a little cooler than
normal thru Tue...then possibly back to near normal Wed-Thu.
Extensive cloudiness is occurs here in a -EPO pattern. Suspect
that our fcst is too optimistic on high temps Wed. However...if
the front lifts back into NEB as a warm front Thu...we could see a
temporary big warm-up.

Precip: Rain will completely changeover to snow Fri night. The
snow will gradually end Sat morning. Used WPC QPF...made of up a
blend of mdls...with snow ratios capped at 10:1 as this will be a
wet snow. That yields 2-4 inches of accum acrs the entire CWA.
That seems very reasonable for such as wk shrtwv trof moving thru
with no strengthening indicated...and the sfc low nowhere near the
CWA. There could be a few spots that see 5" over S-cntrl NEB W of
Hwy 281...but think that will be the exception.

Coordinated the issuance of a Winter Wx Advy with OAX/LBF/GLD/DDC
for N of a line from PHG-JYR.

The fcst has light frzg drzl Sat night into Sun AM. Did not
really want this in the fcst...and don`t believe it will happen.
There will be residual low clds...but no large-scale lift.

The rest of the fcst is littered with precip chances every single
day...most of which look way overdone. Most locations will be dry
most of the time Sat afternoon thru Tue with subsident
anticyclonic flow aloft. The next best chance of shwrs will be Tue
night. Then legit precip chances increase Wed night into Thu.
Thunder is in the fcst.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

The north wind will die down this evening and become light and
variable by late tonight before turning around and becoming south
southeasterly during the day on Friday. Clouds will steadily
increase through the day on Friday with falling ceilings through
the day, but we should stay VFR through most of the day. As we
near 00Z Friday evening we should start to see more MVFR ceilings
spreading northeast across the region. Rain is expected at times
Friday afternoon, before mixing with snow at the end of the TAF
valid period. Several inches of snow will be possible just beyond
the end of this TAF valid period Friday night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM CDT Saturday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>076-082>085.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 PM CDT Saturday
     for KSZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 754 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 449 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a shortwave trough from
northwest Ontario into northwest MN. At the surface, deepening low
pressure at 999 mb was located over north central WI. Moderate to
strong 700-300 qvector conv and 290k-300k isentropic ascent ahead of
the shrtwv supported an area of rain and snow from ne M into WI
and Upper MI. The snowfall has been intense enough over northwest
and northern Upper Michigan to erode the smaller warm layer over
the higher terrain with accumulations around an inch or slushy
snow. Farther south and east, the pcpn was mainly rain.

Tonight, expect the heavier pcpn over mainly the east half of Upper
Michigan supported by the isentropic lift to continue sliding off to
the east this evening. The pcpn over nw WI into western Upper
Michigan associated with 800-600 mb fgen will also swing through the
area between 21z-03z. As CAA strengthens behind the cold front and
850 mb temps drop to around -7C this evening, additional lake
enhanced snow of an inch or two will be possible for wnw flow
favored locations. As the low lifts northeast into northern Ontario
and deepens to around 986 mb by 12z/Fri a very tight gradient will
develop. With decreasing stability, stronger mixing should result in
very gusty winds, especially over the Keweenaw where gusts to 45-50
mph are expected. A Wind advisory was posted, starting at midnight.
With the deeper moisture moving out late tonight and 850 mb temps
only to around -10C, additional snow amounts overnight should remain
less than an inch.

Friday, blustery conditions will prevail over the area with wnw
winds gusting to around 45 mph over the Keweenaw and to 30-35 mph
over most of the rest of Upper Michigan, shoreline flooding may be
possible from Pictured Rocks eastward as waves build to 15-20 ft
over eastern Lake Superior. Scattered snow showers during the
morning with little accumulation should diminish in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020

By Friday evening, models show the strong surface low responsible
for blustery winds on Friday to be near or just southeast of James
Bay. Although the gradient will be relaxing with time, stiff WNW
winds will continue Friday night with 30-40 mph gusts over the
Keweenaw and along the lakeshores in the evening and 20-30 mph
elsewhere. Those gusts will gradually subside by Saturday morning.
After that, still looking at a mostly quiet long-term period with
high temps generally near or slightly above normal. Overall no major
changes to the previous several forecasts. Still expecting strong
high pressure to keep conditions dry for the weekend, followed by a
cold front passing through late Monday kicking off some light rain
and snow showers. Another area of high pressure - though not nearly
as strong - is expected to drop southeastward through the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. And then the pattern still looks to support a
more significant rain, snow, or wintry mix storm for the end of next
week. Models last night and today have diverged somewhat, with some
continuing to show a snow event and others leaning towards a mix or
even mostly rain. For now, will just say to keep an eye on this time
period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 741 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020

IFR conditions at KCMX and KIWD will gradually improve to MVFR by
late evening as drier air in a westerly flow moves in behind a
cold front and light snow diminishes to flurries. IFR conditions
at KSAW will also improve to MVFR later this evening as winds veer
from south to west behind a cold frontal passage and snow ends.
Expect gusty west winds behind the front by late evening with
gusts to 25-30 knots at KIWD and KSAW. West winds will peak near
40 knots at KCMX late tonight into Friday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 438 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2020

As low pressure tracks overhead tonight and then lifts northeast
away from the lake on Friday, west gales will develop and will
become high-end east. Storm force gusts in the low 50s kts are
possible over far eastern Lake Superior Friday morning. Strong high
pressure builds in north of the lake on Saturday so winds will relax
below 20 kts. Next period of potentially stronger winds is not until
Monday when 20-25 kt SW winds are possible ahead of a cold front,
becoming NW at 20-25 kt behind the front Monday night. Another area
of high pressure with subsequent light winds is expected to build in
for the middle of next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Friday night
     for MIZ001-003.

  Lakeshore Flood Warning from 6 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday
     for MIZ006-007.

Lake Superior...
  Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 2 AM EDT
     /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ240>248-263>265.

  Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ Friday for LSZ162.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...RJC
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...RJC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Morristown TN

 958 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated pops and weather based on 88D trends by loading 00Z HRRR
and making small edits. Most of area will be quiet the rest of
the evening and will reflect that. Strong storms over KY slowly
weakening as they approach our less dynamic environment, but they
will impact area overnight, with decent rains that should mostly
behave insofar as flooding is concerned, but best amounts may be
up north as the area of training precip over KY settles into our
northern areas. So isolated flooding remains possible as well as
isolated significant weather impacts.

GC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers dotting the area this evening. Strong storms to
the NW over KY will move east-southeastward into the Plateau later
this evening, bringing possibly severe weather. Hopefully will be
weakening as they move into the Valley and bring increased rain
chances to the TAF locations. MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions
expected to accompany the area of convection overnight. Conditions
will improve in the morning as precip moves out of area.


&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
     Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
     Greene-Southeast Monroe.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$