Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
946 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
Definitely a taste of spring across the region this weekend with
plentiful sunshine and steady southerly flow ushering in a
progressively warmer airmass. Expansive surface high pressure
centered over the Ohio Valley will slide over the Carolinas by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile low pressure developing over eastern
Montana will slowly drift into the Dakotas. That puts the Upper
Mississippi Valley square in between these systems, within a
persistent warm air advection regime and a respectable pressure
gradient. Winds have been a tad gusty since this morning, gusting in
excess of 30 mph at times, especially west of the Mississippi River.
This strong mixing, combined with rising 925mb temps (almost +10C
across our far southwest) and a strong early-March sun angle, has
already bumped several locations into the low to mid 50s early this
afternoon. The only fly in the ointment has been more cirrus than
originally expected due to a low level band of frontogenesis over
southwest MN. Dewpoints have been much lower than raw guidance would
suggest, so afternoon RH will drop to 30 percent or slightly less
across much of the forecast area.
RAP and HRRR forecast soundings show the boundary layer decoupling
early this evening. However, surface winds will remain somewhat
breezy tonight (especially west of the Mississippi) due to that
stronger pressure gradient overhead. RAP RH fields suggest continued
cirrus spilling into the area overnight tied to a weak mid-level
shortwave that will lift from Nebraska into the forecast area by
daybreak Sunday. Mild low temperatures expected, ranging from mid
30s to lower 40s.
Sunday`s big story will be the unseasonable warmth as 925mb temps
continue to climb, likely reaching +12C or higher along and west of
the MS River valley. A lot of deterministic guidance seems to be
struggling with how this will manifest for afternoon highs, perhaps
due to the lingering snowpack. So have gone with the warm side of
guidance, with forecast highs ranging from mid 50s to mid 60s,
perhaps upper 60s in a few spots. That and the southerly breeze will
take a toll on the remaining crusty snowpack, hampered a bit along
and north of I-94 where dewpoints will struggle to climb higher than
mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
An elongated low pressure surface system and associated mid-level
trough moves into the region on Monday. With this system, widespread
rain chances return. Although there is still some uncertainty on the
exact amounts, the highest accumulations are expected for the
southeast part of the region around 3/4". Lower amounts are expected
further to the northwest.
Through the week, high temperatures will be lower than this
preceding weekend. Highs will generally be in the 40s to low 50s,
which is still warmer than the average for this time of year.
For most of Tuesday, there is a break from precipitation as a
surface high pressure system builds into the region. Precipitation
chances return Tuesday night, with a mix of rain and snow possible
into Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the area. Through the
remainder of the week there are low chances for precipitation.
High pressure builds in on Friday, keeping the precipitation
chances to a minimum. Although still highly uncertain on the exact
details, model guidance gives a general idea that a low pressure
system could impact some part of the region next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 946 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2020
VFR conditions through the period. LLWS will be a concern though
at both KRST/KLSE overnight into Sunday morning with southwest
winds blowing around 50kt 2kft off the deck. Another period of
LLWS is expected at KLSE for Sunday evening with southwest winds
of 40-45kt within 2kft above ground level. Rain is expected to
move in early Monday morning as a cold front sinks into the
region. Ceilings could lower into MVFR range, especially at KRST.
More detail on this will be forthcoming with the Sunday 12z TAF
issuance.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kurz
LONG TERM...Peters
AVIATION...DAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
508 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
TAF period starts great, but conditions deteriorate this evening
as rain chances move into the area. VFR conditions currently with
ceilings FEW-SCT080-100. Southerly wind is less than 10 knots.
The exception is KTCS, where wind has been 10-20G30 knots this
afternoon. A line of spotty showers moves into the vicinity of
KELP around 1-2Z.The is not much confidence on whether the line
will affect KLRU, so have kept a mention out of the TAF for now.
Rain becomes more widespread after midnight, affecting all
terminals with -RA to RA by 10-12Z, when ceilings begin to drop
into MVFR/IFR conditions with visibility as low as 4SM. In
addition, winds will become more southwesterly and increase to
11-14 knots as the rain moves in. Rain continues through the day,
but will become spotty after 18Z as the system starts to slowly
move the focus of the rain to the east. This will causing
occasional VCSH at terminals. Rain chances continue through the
TAF period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active and relatively wet pattern for early March will continue
this week, with another upper level storm system expected to bring
widespread rain showers to the area starting late tonight and
extending through much of the day Sunday. Drier and quieter
weather will return on Monday, but a slow-moving storm system off
the California coast will again tap into subtropical moisture,
bringing a chance of showers to southwestern New Mexico Tuesday
and Wednesday, and eventually to the remainder of our area on
Thursday. Snow levels with both of these systems will remain
rather high, though precipitation may end as a little snow in the
highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains or Black Range.
Temperatures will start off rather cool on Sunday, but quickly
recover with highs in the lower 70s across the lowlands Tuesday
through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...
Currently, there lies a broad ridge to our east, giving the area
southwesterly flow aloft. A deeper low off the coast of CA is
advecting a subtropical plum up the ridge and into our area. Clouds
will continue to slowly fill in the sky into the late afternoon
hours. This mornings sounding had a PW value of 0.52 inches. This is
almost hitting the max value of 0.59 inches, and we will continue to
advect more moisture into the area this evening. Southerly surface
winds will continue into the late afternoon hours, then start to
veer southwest after sunset. PW values are shown to rise to 0.8 -
0.9 inches by 06Z tonight in our far easter zones around El Paso and
Hudspeth county. These elevated moisture values will span west later
tonight , covering parts of the CWA that are east of the continental
divide. Higher surface dew points will exist area wide, but a
gradient of elevated moisture will sit around the continental divide
having a SW/NE orientation, which mirrors the upper level flow.
There is a 140kt jet max over the area and sufficient upper level
divergence, which will be just enough dynamics to initiate wide
spread stratiform rain late tonight. CAM models all agree on
scattered showers entering the international boarder around El Paso
after sunset this evening. Light and scattered precipitation will
persist and continue to move north east. Wide spread rain will enter
the area and cover the CWA by 09Z tonight. Models agree on this wide
spread rain lasting into the morning hours tomorrow. HRRR suggests a
second surge of wide spread showers tomorrow afternoon, whereas the
other CAMs show a more consistent coverage throughout the day that
slowly drifts southeast. Most of the heaviest rain totals will end
up in Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth counties; however trace amounts
are expected to span the whole CWA.
Snow totals for the Sacramentos are fairly low, at most up to 3
inches above 8,000ft. Current snow amounts in the Sacs are also low
as we have had some warmer days which have allowed for some snow
melt. Flooding is not a concern at this time, since the rain will
happen over a longer duration, and the highest measured snow water
equivalent value in the Sacs are 2.9 inches at Sierra Blanca.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Precipitation will be quickly coming to an end Sunday night, with
some lingering snow showers in the Sacramento Mountains, and rain
showers in Hudspeth County.
Quiet weather will persist on Monday as the next upper level
trough and embedded closed low slowly digs in off the California
coast. Two shortwave troughs embedded in the SW flow ahead of the
upper low will lift up across Arizona on Tuesday and again later
Tuesday Night, with some showers possibly scraping by southwestern
New Mexico. There are some timing differences between the ECMWF
and GFS and ensemble members, with the GFS generally bringing the
low to the east about 12-18 hours faster than the ECMWF. As a
result, the chance of showers will persist Wednesday through
Thursday, though the best shot at rain looks to be later Thursday
into Thursday night, with dry-slotting coming in ahead of the
upper low itself on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The next weather system is moving in later this evening. Rain
showers will start developing across the area later this evening
before becoming more widespread by Sunday morning and lasting into
the overnight hours. Expect most locations to see a wetting rain as
totals will range from 0.25-0.50" with locally heavier amounts
likely. Southwesterly winds could become slightly elevated at 20-
25mph during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Precip will come to an
end by early Monday morning.
The Borderland will dry out on Monday as temperatures warm back into
the upper 60s for the lowlands. Min RHs will drop into the 30s and
vent rates will generally be poor to fair. Moisture will start to
increase across the area once again on Tuesday as another storm
system moves in. For now, looks like scattered light rain showers
will begin Wednesday morning and persist through the end of the
week. Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s across the lowlands
and min RHs will increase into the upper 30s. Vent rates will be
good to very good through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 54 60 46 66 / 70 90 30 0
Sierra Blanca 50 60 44 63 / 60 80 60 0
Las Cruces 50 58 40 64 / 60 90 20 0
Alamogordo 50 59 40 65 / 60 90 30 0
Cloudcroft 36 42 29 47 / 60 90 30 0
Truth or Consequences 48 61 38 67 / 50 50 0 0
Silver City 44 52 35 60 / 50 80 20 0
Deming 48 58 37 65 / 70 90 20 0
Lordsburg 48 58 38 65 / 50 80 10 0
West El Paso Metro 54 60 46 67 / 70 90 30 0
Dell City 50 62 41 69 / 50 80 50 0
Fort Hancock 52 65 45 71 / 60 80 50 0
Loma Linda 49 55 43 61 / 70 90 40 0
Fabens 53 61 45 68 / 60 90 40 0
Santa Teresa 51 59 42 65 / 70 90 30 0
White Sands HQ 53 59 44 66 / 60 90 30 0
Jornada Range 50 58 38 65 / 60 90 20 0
Hatch 50 60 37 67 / 60 90 10 0
Columbus 51 59 42 67 / 70 90 10 0
Orogrande 51 59 41 65 / 60 90 30 0
Mayhill 42 53 34 60 / 60 90 30 0
Mescalero 39 50 33 57 / 60 90 30 0
Timberon 38 48 32 54 / 60 90 40 0
Winston 39 54 30 62 / 50 40 0 0
Hillsboro 45 59 33 66 / 50 70 10 0
Spaceport 47 59 35 65 / 50 80 20 0
Lake Roberts 38 52 30 61 / 50 60 10 0
Hurley 44 54 34 62 / 60 90 10 0
Cliff 42 56 31 66 / 40 70 20 0
Mule Creek 42 54 35 62 / 40 60 20 0
Faywood 45 55 35 63 / 60 90 10 0
Animas 48 59 38 68 / 60 80 10 0
Hachita 47 58 36 66 / 70 90 10 0
Antelope Wells 48 59 38 68 / 70 90 10 0
Cloverdale 46 52 40 63 / 70 90 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
336 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
Satellite and 500mb RAP analysis showed a large ridge spanning the
central CONUS today. Skies became sunny through the morning as high
clouds moved northeast into Nebraska. At 2 PM MST, temperatures
ranged in the upper 60s to upper 70s with light and variable winds
in eastern Colorado and breezy south winds in much of northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska.
Southwest flow aloft continues across the region overnight as the
ridge shifts east towards the Upper Midwest. Clear to mostly clear
skies are expected to prevail, with low temperatures in the upper
30s to mid 40s overnight. Southwest winds may stay up a little
overnight in the southeastern portion of the region under the
influence of a low level jet.
Warm and dry weather continues into Sunday, with highs in the upper
60s to upper 70s. With a tight pressure gradient in place, breezy
conditions will be possible once again for the southeastern zones. A
shortwave travels from the Four Corners region towards the High
Plains in the afternoon, breaking down the ridge.
As this disturbance approaches the region, cannot rule out some
shower/thunderstorm activity in the late afternoon. However, the
best chance for rain showers will be in the evening and overnight
hours on Sunday night. Instability is limited, but there is enough
for a few thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
A cold front is also anticipated to sweep through the area Sunday
night, with breezy north winds behind the front as it moves through.
Temperatures fall into the low 30s to low 40s under mostly
cloudy/cloudy skies.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
Mon-Wed: An upper level low presently situated ~750 miles
offshore the Washington/Oregon coast is anticipated to cut-off
offshore the central/southern Pacific coast early next week,
maintaining a split-flow regime over the western CONUS and
confluent flow aloft over the Central Rockies/Central High Plains.
With the above in mind, above normal temperatures are anticipated
to persist -- with precipitation chances largely confined north
and/or south of the Tri-State area.
Thu-Sat: The cut-off upper low offshore the southern Pacific
coast is progged to become progressive late next week --
progressing through the Desert Southwest (Thu-Thu night) into the
Central/Southern Plains (Fri-Sat). Broadly speaking -- expect
increasing cloud cover, increasing chances for precipitation, and
cooler temperatures in this period. Given that the aforementioned
upper low will be a southern stream feature and that the Central
Plains will be well-separated from anything resembling an Arctic
airmass, p-type issues -- if any -- may be dominated by
precipitation processes rather than advection -- e.g. temperature
profiles gradually become near-freezing/isothermal as heavy/
persistent precipitation `melts-out` the above-freezing layer,
resulting in a `rate-driven` transition from rain to wet snow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 336 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK terminals. For tonight, south to southwest winds are
forecast at 10 to 15 knots with mostly clear skies. On Sunday, cloud
cover should increase across the region througout the day with
west to southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots. Winds may lighten for a
brief time in the late afternoon ahead of a frontal passage. LLWS
has been included between 04 and 09z this evening in the KMCK
TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
Near critical fire weather conditions continue for much of the
region this afternoon. Low relative humidity values are occurring
along and west of the Colorado border. In northwest Kansas and
portions of southwest Nebraska, gusty southerly winds will persist
for the next few hours. Fortunately these conditions are not
collocated, with the low humidities to the west and the higher
winds to the east. Nevertheless, conditions are concerning enough
to monitor through the remainder of the afternoon.
For Sunday, relative humidities of roughly 20 to 30 percent are
forecast in the afternoon. Winds are expected to be below critical
thresholds.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2020
Near record high temperatures are possible at the following
locations for Sunday March 8:
Goodland..........75 degrees set in 1974 and previous years
Hill City.........79 degrees set in 1977 and previous years
Burlington........75 degrees set in 2006 and previous years
McCook............80 degrees set in 1911
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JBH
FIRE WEATHER...JBH
CLIMATE...JBH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
355 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will be possible into the early evening.
Mountain showers are expected to linger into Sunday. The work week
will be mainly dry, with periods of mountain showers but towards
the end it will get cooler and more showery again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today and tonight: The cold front that has been
limping across Eastern WA today has finally crossed into Idaho and
is currently draped from NW Montana to the Blue Mountains in SE
Washington as of 1PM. Steady precipitation along this front will
transition to showers in the next few hours as the front weakens
and sunshine approaches from the west destabilizing the
atmosphere. HRRR continues to show a few stronger cells this
afternoon and evening capable of a few lightning strikes but
remains the outlier with little to no support from additional CAM
models. Clouds are clearing across Central WA and temperatures in
the western Basin around Moses Lake and Wenatchee have warmed into
the upper 40s but would like to see these temperatures warm into
the mid 50s before getting too excited. Needless to say, we will
continue to monitor this situation and address and cells with
nowcasts and social media posts.
Further east, areas of N Idaho and far eastern reaches of WA will
continue to cope with cool and damp conditions and mix of
rain/snow for the next few hours before transitioning to hit or
miss showers. A few heavier bands of precipitation will drive snow
levels to around 2300 feet but any accumulations look to remain
around 3500 feet or higher. Conditions on Lookout Pass will
possibly deteriorate in the next few hours as snow increases.
Showers will wane through the evening and conditions will dry out
overnight. Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will be possible in
the mountain valleys and on to the Palouse and West Plains.
Temperatures will be cooling near to below freezing for most
communities so be cautious of black ice come Sunday morning.
Sunday and Monday: A sharp shortwave trough will swing through
the region Sunday. This will be noticeable by a band of clouds
developing in the afternoon but models indicate little in the way
of precipitation in the Columbia Basin and Spokane Area. As a
matter of fact, there is strong agreement amongst the models for
two main areas of precipitation. The first will be an isolated
shower threat over the northern mountains between
Republic...Colville...and Priest Lake. Soundings from these
northern communities suggest that any showers will bring the
potential for snow or graupel with minimal accumulations. The
second area of precipitation will be a band stretching from the
Blue Mountains to southern Shoshone County. The midlevel shortwave
will reach this area late in the day Sunday and into the evening
hours. This will allow enough time for moisture coming northward
through Oregon to interact with the front and result in bands of
light to locally moderate precipitation. There are some
timing/placement differences in the models but not huge. Yet the
100-200 mile difference in the northward extent of this band could
be the difference of less than 1" snow on the Camas Prairie or
possibly around 3". Utilizing a blend of models, forecast did
increase amounts for the US95 corridor around Winchester. Amounts
look to taper off rapidly to the north toward Lewiston and
especially Pullman. Temperatures will cool even further for Sunday
night into Monday morning with a few of the northern valleys
expected to dip into the teens to low 20s. Monday will feature dry
weather and seasonal temperatures. /sb
Monday night through Saturday: Ensemble models suggest most, if not
all, of this time interval will be influenced by a west to east
zonal flow with jet stream positioning within close proximity of
Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Towards about Friday and on into
the weekend it is suggested the flow will transition with a cold
trof dropping down from the northwest and replacing the airmass with
a colder and more conditionally unstable one as well as pushing the
jet stream away to the south from the area. The end result is a
forecast that is generally dry with the exception of pops that show
up over the mountains associated with the near zonal flow during
parts of the workweek and temperatures slightly on the warm side of
normal. In addition winds show some tendency towards slight
gustiness as weak disturbances pass thru the zonal flow. This is
followed with a pop increase and transition to a wetter and colder
conditionally unstable airmass starting Friday and continuing on
into the weekend. Surface winds will show more a tendency to blow
from the north and northeast with this transition. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A cold frontal precipitation band is moving eastward
through the Idaho Panhandle at 00Z and will move into MT by 04z-
06Z. Lingering showers are possible at the KPUW and KLWS and KCOE
TAF sites through 02Z with a period of upslope MVFR stratus
lingering at the KGEG/KSFF and KCOE TAF sites for a few hours
after precipitation ends. Boundary layer winds with moisture from
recent rain will will support patchy fog and low stratus between
KPUW-KGEG-KSFF and KCOE overnight bringing the potential for
MVFR/IFR cigs 11-18Z. Scattered cumulus with possible MVFR
ceilings are possible in the upslope areas of the eastern Columbia
Basin Sunday afternoon affecting KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites. VFR
conditions are expected in the downslope regions of the western
basin including the KEAT and KMWH TAF sites. /MJF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 28 43 26 45 26 48 / 30 0 10 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 28 42 25 44 25 47 / 60 10 10 0 0 0
Pullman 28 43 29 44 27 48 / 20 0 20 10 0 0
Lewiston 32 49 33 49 31 54 / 10 10 40 10 0 0
Colville 26 45 20 47 23 48 / 20 20 20 0 0 10
Sandpoint 29 40 23 41 23 43 / 50 30 10 10 0 10
Kellogg 28 39 24 40 23 43 / 60 20 20 10 0 10
Moses Lake 27 48 26 51 26 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 27 46 26 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 26 44 23 45 25 47 / 0 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$