Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/05/20

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 819 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 816 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

Observations show recovery in the low surface humidities across
the north and west. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect overnight
through Thursday evening for fire weather zones 206, 209 and 219.


UPDATE Issued at 357 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

A check on the forecast humidity updated this past hour suggests
extending the Red Flag Warning until 7 pm MST for the eastern
Panhandle and Frenchman Basin. A new RFW is in place until 7 pm
MST in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

Low pressure circulating through srn Canada this afternoon
will draw a fairly strong area of Pacific high pressure across
British Columbia tonight. A strong cold front will drop through wrn
and ncntl Nebraska tonight bringing with it very dry air.
Precipitable water falls to less than 0.15 inches Thursday.

Isolated showers are in place across nrn Nebraska this evening as
suggested by the HRRR, HREF and model blend.

The temperature forecast tonight and Thursday night leans on the
warmer short term model blend plus bias correction. Strong northwest
winds aloft tonight should keep the atmosphere mixed and south winds
developing Thursday night should do the same.

The warmer guidance blend is in place for highs in the 40s and 50s
Thursday. This forecast is backed by full sun and mixing to around
750mb as indicated in the GFS and RAP model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

A surge of warm air moves back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska Friday
and lasts into Sunday. H850mb temperatures will begin warming
Friday and peak around 15C Saturday. This would support highs in
the 70s and the forecast high temperatures Friday through Sunday
were marked up a degree or two.

The models are in very good agreement sending a cold front through
the region during the day Sunday. The temperature forecast Sunday
leans on the slower models like the ECM for highs in the 60s to
around 70.

The forecast Sunday night through Tuesday revolves around a
disorganized weather pattern. The best rain or snow chance is Sunday
night and Monday and the forecast leans on the GFS ensemble. The
model has been consistent carrying a mid level disturbance across
Colorado and then through Kansas. The system is not expected slow up
or amplify.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

The main aviation concern heading into the next day will be the
gusty winds across much of the region. Both sites will experience
northwest winds gusting up to 25 to 35 knots during the day on
Thursday. Strongest winds will be Thursday afternoon. Otherwise,
clear to mostly clear skies will prevail.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

A blend of the very dry RAP model and moist short term model
blend is in place for dew points in the single digits Thursday.
The RAP and HREF indicate precipitable water falling to less than
0.15 inches Thursday and this is the basis for humidity falling to
below 15 or 20 percent in the afternoon across the Sandhills, the
Loess Plains and Loup Rivers Basin.

The guidance blend is the basis for the wind forecast and this
suggested wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph. As a result
of the winds and RH, the Red Flag Warning in place this afternoon
across the Sandhills, the Loess Plains and Loup Rivers Basin will be
extended through Thursday afternoon. Full sun is expected Thursday
and the only limiter on fire weather conditions will be temperatures
which are expected to rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s; less
than prime for fire weather.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST Thursday for NEZ206-209-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Keck
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik
FIRE WEATHER...CDC