Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/29/20

National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1020 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather will prevail across the region through Saturday night as high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the southwest. A warming trend begins on Sunday as the area of high pressure moves offshore. Rain chances increase by the middle part of next week as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 PM EST Friday... Only minor tweaks to the near term sky cover and pops. Surface obs confirm that radar returns are not reaching the ground as the lower atmosphere is still too dry. However, still expect the lower atmosphere to moisten up enough this evening to allow for a few widely scattered light rain showers/sprinkles, with little to no accumulation. As the boundary layer continues to cool off overnight, wouldn`t be surprised if there are a few stray flurries out there in the hours leading up to sunrise, however available moisture will be limited with PWAT values around 0.25 inches. Previous Discussion. As of 330 PM EST Friday... Late afternoon weather analysis continues to show a vertically stacked low pressure system over southern Quebec, with broad upper troughing over the ern CONUS. An upper shortwave and associated weak sfc trough are approaching the area from the west. Clouds have increased ahead of the system, with radar mosaic showing some light echoes west of I-95. However, none of this is reaching the ground as the layer below 5000 feet is very dry (sfc dew points are still in the low-mid 20s on average). Low-level SW flow prevails across the area, and temperatures range from the mid 40s W to the low 50s SE. Still think these showers will increase some in coverage/intensity as the move eastward later this aftn through this evening, but the dry low-levels may inhibit some pcpn potential (what falls may be less than what some of the 12z CAMs were forecasting). Given steep low level lapse rates (~9 degrees C/km)/freezing levels around 3000 ft AGL, there is a chance that some mixing with graupel/a few snowflakes will occur if the showers become strong enough. Will maintain PoPs of around 30% across srn zones, 20-30% PoPs in central zones, and 15-20% PoPs across the north. The most likely timing for pcpn is from now to 6 PM across from the VA Piedmont to Dorchester County (MD), 5-8 PM for the central third of the area, and 7 PM-midnight for SE VA/NE NC. Will keep pcpn type as rain in the grids, since mixing w/ graupel will likely be confined to a few areas. Even if the rain mixes with graupel/snow, temperatures at the surface will be well above freezing so there will be no impacts or accumulations. Drying out after midnight with a brief period of partial clearing before clouds increase closer to sunrise as a secondary shortwave tracks ESE from wrn VA to ern North Carolina Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a flurry or two across southern zones Saturday morning, but kept PoPs in the 10-14% range since it is very unlikely that the pcpn will be measurable. Have a mention of sprinkles/flurries in the grids from 09-15z Sat. The HRRR would suggest a little bit more than just flurries Saturday morning, but am reluctant to go with its solution considering that it was too aggressive w/ the showers this aftn at this time yesterday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s-low 30s in most areas, with some mid 20s across the far NW. The aforementioned vertically stacked low will slowly track eastward toward New Brunswick/Newfoundland on Saturday, w/ dry WNW-NW flow at the surface and aloft across the area. 850 mb temperatures will only be in the -8 to -13C range on Saturday as a secondary CAA surge is progged to moves across the area. Highs Saturday range from ~40F over the Lower Ern Shore, with only low-mid 40s elsewhere. SCT CU likely develops across ern zones on Saturday, with gradual clearing across the SW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Surface high pressure builds from the Deep South to GA and the Carolinas Saturday night as the upper trough axis moves offshore. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will fall into the low-mid 20s in most areas, with mainly upper 20s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. A rather significant warming trend takes place from Sunday-Monday as the high moves offshore and the flow aloft becomes zonal across the ern CONUS while a srn stream upper low slowly moves eastward from California to Arizona. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to -4 to +2C by Sunday afternoon before rising to 3 to 6C on Monday. Cannot rule out a stray shower west of I-95 Monday afternoon, but rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths at best. Highs Sunday range from the upper 40s on the Lower Ern Shore to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. Lows will be in the 30s Sunday night. Warmer on Monday with highs mainly in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Unsettled period next week as the upper level flow becomes zonal to southwest over the Mid-Atlantic region. Air mass becomes moist with PWAT values increasing to 1-1.25 inches. Several disturbances will move across the area increasing rain chances. Timing differences between models exist from mid week on in regards to how fast the upper level trough moves through the area, with the GFS about a day or so faster than the ECMWF. This will have implications for when the precip will come to an end. For now kept chance pops in for Thursday and Friday due to the uncertainty. Temperatures will be well above normal next week with high and low temps running about 10-20 degrees above normal. Warmest day of the week will be Wednesday, where temps will range from the upper 60s N/NW to mid 70s SE. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 PM EST Friday... VFR conditions through the TAF period. W/SW winds this evening 10-15 kts will relax to 5-10 kts overnight and then pick back up to 10-15 kts from late Saturday morning through the remainder of the period. SCT to BKN CU overnight and on Saturday however ceilings over 6k ft expected. There is a slight chance of a light rain shower overnight. VCSH at ECG after 03Z, with chances too low elsewhere to have any mention. Outlook...VFR and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Shower chances increase by the middle of next week with the possibility of degraded flight conditions. && .MARINE... As of 1020 PM EST Friday... SCA`s remain up through 06Z for the Ches Bay/ Currituck Sound and lwr James river for the few hr surge progged behind the trof as it crosses the area late this eve. No headlines along the coast as wind speeds should remain below 25 kts overnight. Yet another CAA surge and deep mixing progged Sat aftrn and nite behind a secondary trof that crosses the area. This will likely need SCA`s over most of the marine area with gusts 25-30 kts over the coastal waters. Waves build 2-4 ft, seas build 3-5 ft. Winds diminish Sun then become SW Mon and Tue as high pressure moves offshore. Speeds aob 20 kts. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...CMF/ERI SHORT TERM...CP/ERI LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...CMF/ERI MARINE...JDM/MPR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
520 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 The warm-up remains on track for the weekend with quiet weather expected. A surface ridge centered across western MN early this afternoon will settle across the area overnight tonight with lows generally in the single digits and likely below zero in typical colder locations. A stark turnaround awaits for Saturday as southerly flow commences with strong 1000-850 mb warm advection developing. Highs on Saturday will recover into the 30s to mid 40s. With warm advection continuing Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, temps will only fall into mid 20s to mid 30s. Sunday still looks to be the warmer day of the weekend, despite more high clouds and some weak cold advection developing as the surface trough crosses the area. Highs will reach into the 40s in most areas, and likely near 50 from the immediate MS Valley into parts of northeast IA and southwest/central WI. Some mid 50s are possible across the warmer valley locations of southwest WI, depending on how thick the higher cirrus is. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Minimally impactful weather and mild conditions likely to continue through much of next week. Somewhat cooler, but still seasonable temps, will return for Monday in the wake of the passing cold front. A west to northwest flow pattern will then prevail through the coming work week with a mild Pacific airmass remaining across the region. High temps will generally be in the 40s, possibly into the 50s at times in warmer locations, and remaining a touch cooler across north-central WI. With a dry airmass, though, overnight temps will remain below freezing, so snow melt will be a gradual process. Much of the week is looking dry with higher precip chances early in the week focusing south across the Ohio Valley and Mid-MS Valley closer to the surface boundary/deeper moisture. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will drive a weak boundary through on Tuesday. Some modest synoptic lift will accompany the trough passage on Tuesday, but moisture will be limited with this system. A few additional upper waves will ripple through the area through mid-week, but timing/placement of these waves remains in question, so only am carrying low precip chances for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020 Cigs: some concerns that low mostly mvfr cigs out to the west will ease east and spread across the TAF sites Sat morning. NAM is the most aggressive of the models with this occurring but latest RAP showing some signs of a similar outcome. Other guidance suggests the low cigs will hold to north, eroding in the south, as the mass moves east. Confidence not high either way, so will lean toward persistence for forecast - but will monitor trends closely and adjust forecast if clouds look more likely. WX/vsby: no impacts expected. Winds: winds will lighten up for the night time hours with a gradual shift from west to south toward Sat morning( as high pressure sinks southeast of the area). Should pick back up for Sat afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS/JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Rieck
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020 00z sfc analysis shows the latest cold front dropping southeast through eastern Kentucky. This is bringing with it bands of snow showers and brisk northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. Some of the more robust snow showers will be able to drop a quick half an inch of snow along with reducing visibility to below a quarter of a mile in squally winds of up to 35 mph. These conditions with off an on snow showers, will last through the bulk of the night tapering to flurries from northwest to southeast late. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 30s north and the upper 30s to near 40 degrees in the south. Drier dewpoints in the low to mid 20s most places will give the pcpn plenty of room to wetbulb to near freezing after onset of any shower resulting in predominantly snow this evening. Did tweak the PoPs through the night per the latest radar trends and the combined near term CAMs guidance as represented by the CONSShort. This had little net effect on the forecast affecting timing and areal coverage slightly. Accordingly, will continue to run with the WSW and SPS structure currently in effect. Also, added in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Finally, will note that the levels on Buckhorn Lake have fallen enough to allow us to drop the Flood Warning for that area. The gridded updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A zone update will likely follow later this evening as the snow becomes the primary weather type. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 446 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020 A secondary wave is expected to move across the CWA this evening and into the overnight, amid strong N to S flow into the state. With much colder temperatures in place compared to last night, snow growth processes will be maximized, allowing for better snowfall ratios and rates. This will be combined with deep lapse rates, strong mixing, and a llvl jet, which could result in banding and localized heavy showers across portions of the CWA. Watching the model data throughout the day, became a bit concerned late this morning when the new HRRR came in with two strong localized bans of at least 1 to 2 inches across the southern CWA and north-central CWA. Over the course of the day, the GFS also ramped up snow totals, as the HRRR started to back off of the far southern band. Either way, the trend continued to be for somewhat higher totals than was originally forecast. It will also be likely that depending on where the heaviest bands or showers set up, some locations could see locally high amounts up to 2 inches, while other locations could just see a dusting. The high terrain in the far SE has also increased a bit, with up to 4 inches possible on top of black mountain, and 1 to 3 elsewhere. Based on these trends, and the potential for low visibilities and high snowfall rates impacting roadways, talked with neighboring offices, and all agreed to ramp up to a Winter Weather Advisory. There will undoubtedly be impacts on travel late this Friday evening and into the overnight hours. Furthermore, looking at the latest soundings, agree with midnight shift briefing that with the given lapse rates and best instability in the snow growth zone, can`t rule out a random rumble of thunder. In fact, we have already had a report of lightning with snow at an airport site to our SE in eastern TN. Granted, confidence in this is not high enough to include in grids, but will be something interesting to watch for overnight. Will also give some indication as to where the heaviest snow may be occurring. This wave will be quick, exiting generally by 12Z Saturday in the far SE. As a result, when issuing the advisory, split the product into 3 sections. The first encompassed the W and N part of the CWA, where onset and exit will be quickest. The second will be the S and E portion of the CWA, where onset and exit will be a few hours later. The last segment was for the far SE high terrain counties where the previous advisory was already ongoing, and storm total accumulations would be a bit higher. Furthermore, given the uncertainty on how far north the heaviest bands of snow will be based on the model trends, talked with ILN and LMK and opted to just leave our far northern 3 counties in a SPS for now, still highlighting potential for heavy snow rates and low visibilities, but slightly lower accumulations up to an inch. If trends show the bands expanding northward, than the advisory can be expanded into this region as well. Heading into Saturday morning, the strong N flow will allow temps to fall into the upper teens and low 20s, with greatest drops expected late at night as the snow exits and drier air moves in overhead. Upper level heights will then begin to increase across the CWA throughout the day Saturday, as a strong area of high pressure moves in overhead. Clouds will quickly scatter out with dry air advection, but temps will remain cool, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40, and cooler on the highest ridges. The center of high pressure will be slowly exiting eastward across and away from the CWA by Saturday night. Surface flow should remain fairly light, but will become more southerly in nature on the backside of the departing high. This will allow for good decoupling of the atmosphere, and temperature drops, especially in the deeper valleys. This will be further exacerbated for any lingering snow on the ground, which will also be the most likely in the sheltered valleys. That being said, given the concentration on the snow today, now am a bit concerned that the forecasted valley temps for Saturday night are actually too warm. Will pass this along to evening and then night shift, as the valleys (especially the NE sheltered valleys) will likely need to be lowered/colder. In fact, wouldn`t be surprised to see some teens in these locations. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 430 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020 The period is expected to begin with the axis of an upper level ridge extending from the southeast to the western Great Lakes with quasi zonal flow across the Conus. An upper level low is expected to be dropping south across the western Conus at that point. Meanwhile a frontal zone is expected to extend south through the Plains to begin the period. The upper level low will drop into the southwest CONUS to end the weekend and then across northern Mexico and the southwest Conus, reaching the southern Plains and TX by midweek. At the same time, the upper level ridge axis will move east. This will lead to a period of west southwest to southwest flow across the southern Plains to the southeast from Monday night to midweek. Meanwhile, the frontal zone will gradually progress toward the OH Valley, but as noted by the previous forecaster it will tend to stall out or slow down as it reaches the OH Valley. High pressure at the sfc and aloft will lead to a dry start to the period as they both depart on Sunday. Temperatures will be mild for mid March. Clouds, especially high clouds, will be on the increase late in the day. Several disturbances in southwest flow should move across the TN and OH Valley regions and into the Appalachians will interact with a deep fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with PWS in the 1 to potentially as much as 1.5 inch range and bring rounds of rain, with some heavy rounds possible. Models continue to vary from run to run and model to model with the axis of the heaviest qpf and when the heaviest precipitation may fall. At this point, it appears that the heaviest rain should occur as the boundary finally moves into East KY late Tue into Wed and a shortwave trough approaches. Interestingly, the GFS has been been more consistent with the heavier amounts while the most recent ECWMF moves the upper low much slower to the east and northeast. Enough instability, especially elevated instability, may be present at times for some embedded thunderstorms. The likelihood of this is greatest from late Monday night into Tuesday night ahead of the sfc frontal zone. The end of the period will likely be dominated by a trough over the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus. Disturbances moving through this flow may lead to additional chances for showers, though these systems will have much less moisture to work with. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 715 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020 The next frontal system will is now moving into the area from NW to SE. With wetbulb temps expected to be at or below freezing at onset, precip will fall as mainly snow. Heaviest bursts of snow and snow banding could result in quick accumulations of up to 1 to 2 inches, and drops in VIS and CIGS wherever they set up. However, confidence on where these bands and heavier showers will set up in relation to the TAF sites is still somewhat uncertain. As of now, kept close to the CONSShort which has generally MVFR CIGS and VIS throughout the night from starting around 02-04z and lasting past dawn. Snow should taper off from W to E between 07 and 09z at TAF sites. After this round of snow moves out, VIS will quickly improve and CIGS will lift and scatter out for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain generally west to west northwest throughout the period, sustained between 10 and 15 kts for much of the time. We could also see some higher gusts mixing down in the more robust snow showers/bands throughout the night as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for KYZ050-051- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-106-108-111-114. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ087-088- 118. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ084>086- 107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119-120. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JMW/GREIF
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1006 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... There are a few changes to the forecast this evening. Confidence has increased that the southern Cumberland Plateau and the southern TN Valley could see some minor snowfall accumulations tonight. The 18Z and now 00Z NAM have been consistently showing a QPF maxima traversing across middle TN and down into the aforementioned areas. The HREF and HRRR have also been showing this over the past several runs. This isn`t to say that these areas are going to see a lot of snow but confidence that they will see snow. Have pushed up POPs into the Likely category for these areas. Timing tool shows this precip moving into the southern Plateau between 10 PM EST and 11 PM EST and then spreading southeastward into the southern TN Valley. Areas under the heaviest band will likely see a dusting and perhaps even up to half an inch of snow accumulation. Any higher elevations areas under this heavier band could see up to 1 inch. For this reason, included these areas in the previously issued SPS. Temps are in the mid to upper 30s across these areas so precip will start as rain but temps will cool into the low to mid 30s through dynamic cooling and should switch from rain to snow. There are some questions about the winter weather advisory for the northern Cumberland Plateau and extreme northern TN Valley. I`m not overly confident that these areas will see advisory criteria snowfall based on latest radar trends. However, I don`t feel confident enough to remove these areas from the advisory since the event is just getting started. All other aspects of the forecast look good and no changes planned. Will send out new zones for updated POPs and snowfall totals for the southern areas. SR && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. We are currently in between rounds of snow with VFR conditions in place. CIGs will fall to MVFR when the next round of snow showers move in later this evening. VFR conditions will return by late morning at CHA and TYS and by early afternoon at TRI. Winds will generally remain out of the west at around 10 kts. TRI will see some gusts up to 20 KTs tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 50 31 62 46 / 40 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 44 27 58 44 / 50 10 0 0 40 Oak Ridge, TN 29 44 27 58 45 / 50 10 0 0 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 40 21 57 36 / 70 20 0 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Monroe. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Campbell- Claiborne-Hancock-Johnson-Morgan-Scott-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Unicoi. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Lee-Russell- Scott-Washington-Wise. && $$
National Weather Service Charleston WV
834 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Quick system brings snow across the south tonight. High pressure Sunday. A few systems will bring plenty of warm moist air to promote rain for a greater part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 830 PM Friday... Expanded Winter Weather Advisory to include Wyoming, Logan and Mingo counties in WV. Model consensus suggests snow showers will spread across the Tristate area, east across extreme southern sections of WV tonight. Around 1 inch of snow will be possible across the Tristate area near HTS, east along and south of interstate I64 to CRW, and 1 to 3 inches possible across extreme southeast WV and southwest VA through 7 AM Saturday morning. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory was expanded north and west. Tweaked hourly temperatures per latest surface observations trends. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 230 PM Friday... Main focus for the near term is a quick moving trough at the surface and aloft that will slide through overnight. The main forcing with this feature crosses the southern half of the forecast area, generally south of I-64. Hi-res models are indicating there will be a band of moderate snow transitioning across KY, into southern WV or southwestern VA overnight. The HRRR takes this into the very southern tip of the forecast area, while the NAMNest keeps it south of the forecast area. Opted to side with the HRRR, as the larger scale NAM and GFS include the southern portion of the forecast area in some of the better QPF print out too. This gives around 2 inches of snow for this area, and have hoisted a winter weather advisory for this. Have some concern about the next tier of counties north as well with temperatures supportive of snow accumulations by late tonight. Generally have amounts in the 1-2" range here, but if things shift north at all, these would bump up to 2" pretty easily. Opted to mention this potential in the HWO for now. Have POPs tapering off very quickly around sunrise on Saturday, as high pressure begins nosing in from the west. Blended ECMWF MOS into previous temperature forecast, which resulted in only minor changes. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM Friday... After a cold start Sunday morning, an upper ridge takes hold across the area at the start of the short term period, with dry and warm conditions taking hold. Clouds will be on the increase however as the day progresses Sunday, as a low moves across the Great Lakes region, with a frontal boundary moving into the Ohio Valley region at the start of next week. Precipitation will develop late Sunday night/early Monday, and temperatures should be warm enough for rain area wide, although a brief mix is possible across the higher terrain, depending on timing of moisture arrival. Precipitation in the short term period should remain relatively light overall. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM Friday... Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday through at least the middle of the week as a low develops across the southwest U.S., with increasing southwesterly flow developing across the CWA. Anomalously high PW air will develop and surge into the area, with PW values progged to reach 1.3 to 1.5 inches. Pattern becomes more uncertain as the week progresses, but overall trend is for decreasing precipitation chances after Wednesday. Still looking like heaviest amounts of precipitation will be realized across southern zones, with the possibility of over 2 inches of rain, and possible flooding across these areas. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 639 PM Friday... Models suggest available moisture within the dendrite growth under northwest flow lasting into the overnight hours across the eastern mountains tonight. This will keep upslope snow and associated IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN and BKW through at least 05Z. The rest of sites will experience VFR/MVFR conditions through this time. Another fast moving shortwave will approach from the west tonight, to bring moderate snow showers across the Tristate area, spreading east to affect extreme southern WV and southwest VA overnight. Models consensus suggests IFR/LIFR conditions under snow showers will reach HTS by 05Z, spreading east affecting BKW by 06Z. Note that BKW will continue under IFR conditions or worst for a longer period of time. Conditions should improve over these areas after this system passes by Saturday morning. Additional moisture from Lake Erie will reach our northeast mountains to affect EKN around 12Z Saturday for another shot of snow showers and associated IFR conditions. This later event should be brief lasting into mid morning or 15Z Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less snow amounts and better conditions could occur if the fast moving system passes further south than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ024-025- 033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ