Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/29/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1020 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020
Cooler weather will prevail across the region through Saturday
night as high pressure slowly builds toward the area from the
southwest. A warming trend begins on Sunday as the area of high
pressure moves offshore. Rain chances increase by the middle
part of next week as low pressure and an associated cold front
approach from the west.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Friday...
Only minor tweaks to the near term sky cover and pops. Surface
obs confirm that radar returns are not reaching the ground as
the lower atmosphere is still too dry. However, still expect the
lower atmosphere to moisten up enough this evening to allow for
a few widely scattered light rain showers/sprinkles, with
little to no accumulation. As the boundary layer continues to
cool off overnight, wouldn`t be surprised if there are a few
stray flurries out there in the hours leading up to sunrise,
however available moisture will be limited with PWAT values
around 0.25 inches.
As of 330 PM EST Friday...
Late afternoon weather analysis continues to show a vertically
stacked low pressure system over southern Quebec, with broad
upper troughing over the ern CONUS. An upper shortwave and
associated weak sfc trough are approaching the area from the
west. Clouds have increased ahead of the system, with radar
mosaic showing some light echoes west of I-95. However, none of
this is reaching the ground as the layer below 5000 feet is
very dry (sfc dew points are still in the low-mid 20s on
average). Low-level SW flow prevails across the area, and
temperatures range from the mid 40s W to the low 50s SE. Still
think these showers will increase some in coverage/intensity as
the move eastward later this aftn through this evening, but the
dry low-levels may inhibit some pcpn potential (what falls may
be less than what some of the 12z CAMs were forecasting). Given
steep low level lapse rates (~9 degrees C/km)/freezing levels
around 3000 ft AGL, there is a chance that some mixing with
graupel/a few snowflakes will occur if the showers become strong
enough. Will maintain PoPs of around 30% across srn zones,
20-30% PoPs in central zones, and 15-20% PoPs across the north.
The most likely timing for pcpn is from now to 6 PM across from
the VA Piedmont to Dorchester County (MD), 5-8 PM for the
central third of the area, and 7 PM-midnight for SE VA/NE NC.
Will keep pcpn type as rain in the grids, since mixing w/
graupel will likely be confined to a few areas. Even if the rain
mixes with graupel/snow, temperatures at the surface will be
well above freezing so there will be no impacts or
Drying out after midnight with a brief period of partial
clearing before clouds increase closer to sunrise as a
secondary shortwave tracks ESE from wrn VA to ern North
Carolina Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a flurry or two
across southern zones Saturday morning, but kept PoPs in the
10-14% range since it is very unlikely that the pcpn will be
measurable. Have a mention of sprinkles/flurries in the grids
from 09-15z Sat. The HRRR would suggest a little bit more than
just flurries Saturday morning, but am reluctant to go with its
solution considering that it was too aggressive w/ the showers
this aftn at this time yesterday.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s-low 30s in most areas,
with some mid 20s across the far NW. The aforementioned
vertically stacked low will slowly track eastward toward New
Brunswick/Newfoundland on Saturday, w/ dry WNW-NW flow at the
surface and aloft across the area. 850 mb temperatures will only
be in the -8 to -13C range on Saturday as a secondary CAA surge
is progged to moves across the area. Highs Saturday range from
~40F over the Lower Ern Shore, with only low-mid 40s elsewhere.
SCT CU likely develops across ern zones on Saturday, with
gradual clearing across the SW.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...
Surface high pressure builds from the Deep South to GA and the
Carolinas Saturday night as the upper trough axis moves
offshore. With clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures
will fall into the low-mid 20s in most areas, with mainly upper
20s in coastal SE VA/NE NC. A rather significant warming trend
takes place from Sunday-Monday as the high moves offshore and
the flow aloft becomes zonal across the ern CONUS while a srn
stream upper low slowly moves eastward from California to
Arizona. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to -4 to +2C
by Sunday afternoon before rising to 3 to 6C on Monday. Cannot
rule out a stray shower west of I-95 Monday afternoon, but
rainfall amounts will be a few hundredths at best. Highs Sunday
range from the upper 40s on the Lower Ern Shore to the low-mid
50s elsewhere. Lows will be in the 30s Sunday night. Warmer on
Monday with highs mainly in the low-mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...
Unsettled period next week as the upper level flow becomes zonal to
southwest over the Mid-Atlantic region. Air mass becomes moist with
PWAT values increasing to 1-1.25 inches. Several disturbances will
move across the area increasing rain chances. Timing differences
between models exist from mid week on in regards to how fast the
upper level trough moves through the area, with the GFS about a day
or so faster than the ECMWF. This will have implications for when
the precip will come to an end. For now kept chance pops in for
Thursday and Friday due to the uncertainty.
Temperatures will be well above normal next week with high and low
temps running about 10-20 degrees above normal. Warmest day of the
week will be Wednesday, where temps will range from the upper 60s
N/NW to mid 70s SE.
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Friday...
VFR conditions through the TAF period. W/SW winds this evening
10-15 kts will relax to 5-10 kts overnight and then pick back up
to 10-15 kts from late Saturday morning through the remainder of
the period. SCT to BKN CU overnight and on Saturday however
ceilings over 6k ft expected. There is a slight chance of a
light rain shower overnight. VCSH at ECG after 03Z, with chances
too low elsewhere to have any mention.
Outlook...VFR and dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the weekend as high pressure slowly builds into the
area. Shower chances increase by the middle of next week with
the possibility of degraded flight conditions.
As of 1020 PM EST Friday...
SCA`s remain up through 06Z for the Ches Bay/ Currituck Sound and
lwr James river for the few hr surge progged behind the trof as it
crosses the area late this eve. No headlines along the coast as
wind speeds should remain below 25 kts overnight.
Yet another CAA surge and deep mixing progged Sat aftrn and nite
behind a secondary trof that crosses the area. This will likely need
SCA`s over most of the marine area with gusts 25-30 kts over the
coastal waters. Waves build 2-4 ft, seas build 3-5 ft.
Winds diminish Sun then become SW Mon and Tue as high pressure moves
offshore. Speeds aob 20 kts.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
520 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020
The warm-up remains on track for the weekend with quiet weather
A surface ridge centered across western MN early this afternoon will
settle across the area overnight tonight with lows generally in the
single digits and likely below zero in typical colder locations.
A stark turnaround awaits for Saturday as southerly flow commences
with strong 1000-850 mb warm advection developing. Highs on
Saturday will recover into the 30s to mid 40s. With warm advection
continuing Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front,
temps will only fall into mid 20s to mid 30s. Sunday still looks
to be the warmer day of the weekend, despite more high clouds and
some weak cold advection developing as the surface trough crosses
the area. Highs will reach into the 40s in most areas, and likely
near 50 from the immediate MS Valley into parts of northeast IA
and southwest/central WI. Some mid 50s are possible across the
warmer valley locations of southwest WI, depending on how thick
the higher cirrus is.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020
Minimally impactful weather and mild conditions likely to continue
through much of next week.
Somewhat cooler, but still seasonable temps, will return for
Monday in the wake of the passing cold front. A west to northwest
flow pattern will then prevail through the coming work week with a
mild Pacific airmass remaining across the region. High temps will
generally be in the 40s, possibly into the 50s at times in warmer
locations, and remaining a touch cooler across north-central WI.
With a dry airmass, though, overnight temps will remain below
freezing, so snow melt will be a gradual process.
Much of the week is looking dry with higher precip chances early in
the week focusing south across the Ohio Valley and Mid-MS Valley
closer to the surface boundary/deeper moisture. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough will drive a weak boundary through on Tuesday. Some
modest synoptic lift will accompany the trough passage on Tuesday,
but moisture will be limited with this system. A few additional
upper waves will ripple through the area through mid-week, but
timing/placement of these waves remains in question, so only am
carrying low precip chances for now.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020
Cigs: some concerns that low mostly mvfr cigs out to the west will
ease east and spread across the TAF sites Sat morning. NAM is the
most aggressive of the models with this occurring but latest RAP
showing some signs of a similar outcome. Other guidance suggests the
low cigs will hold to north, eroding in the south, as the mass moves
east. Confidence not high either way, so will lean toward
persistence for forecast - but will monitor trends closely and
adjust forecast if clouds look more likely.
WX/vsby: no impacts expected.
Winds: winds will lighten up for the night time hours with a gradual
shift from west to south toward Sat morning( as high pressure sinks
southeast of the area). Should pick back up for Sat afternoon with a
few higher gusts possible.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020
Issued at 740 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020
00z sfc analysis shows the latest cold front dropping southeast
through eastern Kentucky. This is bringing with it bands of snow
showers and brisk northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. Some of the
more robust snow showers will be able to drop a quick half an inch
of snow along with reducing visibility to below a quarter of a
mile in squally winds of up to 35 mph. These conditions with off
an on snow showers, will last through the bulk of the night
tapering to flurries from northwest to southeast late. Currently,
temperatures are running in the low to mid 30s north and the upper
30s to near 40 degrees in the south. Drier dewpoints in the low
to mid 20s most places will give the pcpn plenty of room to
wetbulb to near freezing after onset of any shower resulting in
predominantly snow this evening. Did tweak the PoPs through the
night per the latest radar trends and the combined near term CAMs
guidance as represented by the CONSShort. This had little net
effect on the forecast affecting timing and areal coverage
slightly. Accordingly, will continue to run with the WSW and SPS
structure currently in effect. Also, added in the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td grids. Finally, will note that the levels on
Buckhorn Lake have fallen enough to allow us to drop the Flood
Warning for that area. The gridded updates have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers. A zone update will likely follow later this
evening as the snow becomes the primary weather type.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 446 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020
A secondary wave is expected to move across the CWA this evening and
into the overnight, amid strong N to S flow into the state. With
much colder temperatures in place compared to last night, snow
growth processes will be maximized, allowing for better snowfall
ratios and rates. This will be combined with deep lapse rates,
strong mixing, and a llvl jet, which could result in banding and
localized heavy showers across portions of the CWA. Watching the
model data throughout the day, became a bit concerned late this
morning when the new HRRR came in with two strong localized bans of
at least 1 to 2 inches across the southern CWA and north-central
CWA. Over the course of the day, the GFS also ramped up snow totals,
as the HRRR started to back off of the far southern band. Either
way, the trend continued to be for somewhat higher totals than was
originally forecast. It will also be likely that depending on where
the heaviest bands or showers set up, some locations could see
locally high amounts up to 2 inches, while other locations could
just see a dusting. The high terrain in the far SE has also
increased a bit, with up to 4 inches possible on top of black
mountain, and 1 to 3 elsewhere.
Based on these trends, and the potential for low visibilities and
high snowfall rates impacting roadways, talked with neighboring
offices, and all agreed to ramp up to a Winter Weather Advisory.
There will undoubtedly be impacts on travel late this Friday evening
and into the overnight hours. Furthermore, looking at the latest
soundings, agree with midnight shift briefing that with the given
lapse rates and best instability in the snow growth zone, can`t rule
out a random rumble of thunder. In fact, we have already had a
report of lightning with snow at an airport site to our SE in
eastern TN. Granted, confidence in this is not high enough to
include in grids, but will be something interesting to watch for
overnight. Will also give some indication as to where the heaviest
snow may be occurring.
This wave will be quick, exiting generally by 12Z Saturday in the
far SE. As a result, when issuing the advisory, split the product
into 3 sections. The first encompassed the W and N part of the CWA,
where onset and exit will be quickest. The second will be the S and
E portion of the CWA, where onset and exit will be a few hours
later. The last segment was for the far SE high terrain counties
where the previous advisory was already ongoing, and storm total
accumulations would be a bit higher. Furthermore, given the
uncertainty on how far north the heaviest bands of snow will be
based on the model trends, talked with ILN and LMK and opted to just
leave our far northern 3 counties in a SPS for now, still
highlighting potential for heavy snow rates and low visibilities, but
slightly lower accumulations up to an inch. If trends show the bands
expanding northward, than the advisory can be expanded into this
region as well.
Heading into Saturday morning, the strong N flow will allow temps to
fall into the upper teens and low 20s, with greatest drops expected
late at night as the snow exits and drier air moves in overhead.
Upper level heights will then begin to increase across the CWA
throughout the day Saturday, as a strong area of high pressure moves
in overhead. Clouds will quickly scatter out with dry air advection,
but temps will remain cool, with highs in the upper 30s to around
40, and cooler on the highest ridges.
The center of high pressure will be slowly exiting eastward across
and away from the CWA by Saturday night. Surface flow should remain
fairly light, but will become more southerly in nature on the
backside of the departing high. This will allow for good decoupling
of the atmosphere, and temperature drops, especially in the deeper
valleys. This will be further exacerbated for any lingering snow on
the ground, which will also be the most likely in the sheltered
valleys. That being said, given the concentration on the snow today,
now am a bit concerned that the forecasted valley temps for Saturday
night are actually too warm. Will pass this along to evening and
then night shift, as the valleys (especially the NE sheltered
valleys) will likely need to be lowered/colder. In fact, wouldn`t be
surprised to see some teens in these locations.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 430 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020
The period is expected to begin with the axis of an upper level
ridge extending from the southeast to the western Great Lakes with
quasi zonal flow across the Conus. An upper level low is expected
to be dropping south across the western Conus at that point.
Meanwhile a frontal zone is expected to extend south through the
Plains to begin the period.
The upper level low will drop into the southwest CONUS to end the
weekend and then across northern Mexico and the southwest Conus,
reaching the southern Plains and TX by midweek. At the same time,
the upper level ridge axis will move east. This will lead to a
period of west southwest to southwest flow across the southern
Plains to the southeast from Monday night to midweek. Meanwhile,
the frontal zone will gradually progress toward the OH Valley, but
as noted by the previous forecaster it will tend to stall out or
slow down as it reaches the OH Valley.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft will lead to a dry start to the
period as they both depart on Sunday. Temperatures will be mild
for mid March. Clouds, especially high clouds, will be on the
increase late in the day.
Several disturbances in southwest flow should move across the TN
and OH Valley regions and into the Appalachians will interact
with a deep fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with PWS in
the 1 to potentially as much as 1.5 inch range and bring rounds of
rain, with some heavy rounds possible. Models continue to vary
from run to run and model to model with the axis of the heaviest
qpf and when the heaviest precipitation may fall. At this point,
it appears that the heaviest rain should occur as the boundary
finally moves into East KY late Tue into Wed and a shortwave
trough approaches. Interestingly, the GFS has been been more
consistent with the heavier amounts while the most recent ECWMF
moves the upper low much slower to the east and northeast. Enough
instability, especially elevated instability, may be present at
times for some embedded thunderstorms. The likelihood of this is
greatest from late Monday night into Tuesday night ahead of the
sfc frontal zone.
The end of the period will likely be dominated by a trough over
the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus. Disturbances moving
through this flow may lead to additional chances for showers,
though these systems will have much less moisture to work with.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2020
The next frontal system will is now moving into the area from NW
to SE. With wetbulb temps expected to be at or below freezing at
onset, precip will fall as mainly snow. Heaviest bursts of snow
and snow banding could result in quick accumulations of up to 1 to
2 inches, and drops in VIS and CIGS wherever they set up.
However, confidence on where these bands and heavier showers will
set up in relation to the TAF sites is still somewhat uncertain.
As of now, kept close to the CONSShort which has generally MVFR
CIGS and VIS throughout the night from starting around 02-04z and
lasting past dawn. Snow should taper off from W to E between 07
and 09z at TAF sites. After this round of snow moves out, VIS
will quickly improve and CIGS will lift and scatter out for the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain generally west to
west northwest throughout the period, sustained between 10 and 15
kts for much of the time. We could also see some higher gusts
mixing down in the more robust snow showers/bands throughout the
night as well.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for KYZ050-051-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ087-088-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ084>086-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1006 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020
There are a few changes to the forecast this evening. Confidence
has increased that the southern Cumberland Plateau and the
southern TN Valley could see some minor snowfall accumulations
tonight. The 18Z and now 00Z NAM have been consistently showing a
QPF maxima traversing across middle TN and down into the
aforementioned areas. The HREF and HRRR have also been showing
this over the past several runs. This isn`t to say that these
areas are going to see a lot of snow but confidence that they will
see snow. Have pushed up POPs into the Likely category for these
areas. Timing tool shows this precip moving into the southern
Plateau between 10 PM EST and 11 PM EST and then spreading
southeastward into the southern TN Valley. Areas under the
heaviest band will likely see a dusting and perhaps even up to
half an inch of snow accumulation. Any higher elevations areas
under this heavier band could see up to 1 inch. For this reason,
included these areas in the previously issued SPS. Temps are in
the mid to upper 30s across these areas so precip will start as
rain but temps will cool into the low to mid 30s through dynamic
cooling and should switch from rain to snow.
There are some questions about the winter weather advisory for the
northern Cumberland Plateau and extreme northern TN Valley. I`m
not overly confident that these areas will see advisory criteria
snowfall based on latest radar trends. However, I don`t feel
confident enough to remove these areas from the advisory since the
event is just getting started.
All other aspects of the forecast look good and no changes
planned. Will send out new zones for updated POPs and snowfall
totals for the southern areas.
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
We are currently in between rounds of snow with VFR conditions in
place. CIGs will fall to MVFR when the next round of snow showers
move in later this evening. VFR conditions will return by late
morning at CHA and TYS and by early afternoon at TRI. Winds will
generally remain out of the west at around 10 kts. TRI will see
some gusts up to 20 KTs tomorrow afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 50 31 62 46 / 40 0 0 0 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 28 44 27 58 44 / 50 10 0 0 40
Oak Ridge, TN 29 44 27 58 45 / 50 10 0 0 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 25 40 21 57 36 / 70 20 0 0 20
TN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Campbell-
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Lee-Russell-
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
834 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020
Quick system brings snow across the south tonight. High
pressure Sunday. A few systems will bring plenty of warm moist
air to promote rain for a greater part of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 830 PM Friday...
Expanded Winter Weather Advisory to include Wyoming, Logan and
Mingo counties in WV. Model consensus suggests snow showers will
spread across the Tristate area, east across extreme southern
sections of WV tonight. Around 1 inch of snow will be possible
across the Tristate area near HTS, east along and south of
interstate I64 to CRW, and 1 to 3 inches possible across
extreme southeast WV and southwest VA through 7 AM Saturday
morning. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory was expanded north
Tweaked hourly temperatures per latest surface observations
trends. Rest of forecast remains on track.
As of 230 PM Friday...
Main focus for the near term is a quick moving trough at the
surface and aloft that will slide through overnight. The main
forcing with this feature crosses the southern half of the
forecast area, generally south of I-64. Hi-res models are
indicating there will be a band of moderate snow transitioning
across KY, into southern WV or southwestern VA overnight. The
HRRR takes this into the very southern tip of the forecast
area, while the NAMNest keeps it south of the forecast area.
Opted to side with the HRRR, as the larger scale NAM and GFS
include the southern portion of the forecast area in some of the
better QPF print out too. This gives around 2 inches of snow
for this area, and have hoisted a winter weather advisory for
this. Have some concern about the next tier of counties north as
well with temperatures supportive of snow accumulations by late
tonight. Generally have amounts in the 1-2" range here, but if
things shift north at all, these would bump up to 2" pretty easily.
Opted to mention this potential in the HWO for now.
Have POPs tapering off very quickly around sunrise on Saturday,
as high pressure begins nosing in from the west.
Blended ECMWF MOS into previous temperature forecast, which
resulted in only minor changes.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Friday...
After a cold start Sunday morning, an upper ridge takes hold across
the area at the start of the short term period, with dry and warm
conditions taking hold. Clouds will be on the increase however as
the day progresses Sunday, as a low moves across the Great Lakes
region, with a frontal boundary moving into the Ohio Valley region
at the start of next week. Precipitation will develop late Sunday
night/early Monday, and temperatures should be warm enough for rain
area wide, although a brief mix is possible across the higher
terrain, depending on timing of moisture arrival. Precipitation in
the short term period should remain relatively light overall.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...
Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday through at least the
middle of the week as a low develops across the southwest U.S., with
increasing southwesterly flow developing across the CWA. Anomalously
high PW air will develop and surge into the area, with PW values
progged to reach 1.3 to 1.5 inches. Pattern becomes more uncertain
as the week progresses, but overall trend is for decreasing
precipitation chances after Wednesday. Still looking like heaviest
amounts of precipitation will be realized across southern zones,
with the possibility of over 2 inches of rain, and possible flooding
across these areas.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 639 PM Friday...
Models suggest available moisture within the dendrite growth
under northwest flow lasting into the overnight hours across
the eastern mountains tonight. This will keep upslope snow and
associated IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN and BKW through at least
05Z. The rest of sites will experience VFR/MVFR conditions
through this time.
Another fast moving shortwave will approach from the west
tonight, to bring moderate snow showers across the Tristate
area, spreading east to affect extreme southern WV and
southwest VA overnight. Models consensus suggests IFR/LIFR
conditions under snow showers will reach HTS by 05Z, spreading
east affecting BKW by 06Z. Note that BKW will continue under IFR
conditions or worst for a longer period of time. Conditions
should improve over these areas after this system passes by
Additional moisture from Lake Erie will reach our northeast
mountains to affect EKN around 12Z Saturday for another shot of
snow showers and associated IFR conditions. This later event
should be brief lasting into mid morning or 15Z Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less snow amounts and better conditions
could occur if the fast moving system passes further south than
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M H H M M H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for WVZ024-025-
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ003-004.