Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/20
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.AVIATION...
Snow showers will take conditions down into the IFR range briefly
through about 8 to 9 pm. North winds will gradually decrease
through the night and they should stay around 10 knots or less
from early morning on Wednesday through the day. Skies are
expected to be VFR once the snow showers dissipate by mid evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night
Current satellite and model analysis has an H5 low pressure system
over southwest Kansas and parts of the northwest FA. Water vapor
is seen wrapped around the northern and western edge of the low.
High winds of 35 to 35 mph with gust up to 55 mph have already
been observed across much of the area primarily in the northwest.
The 18Z RAP is suggesting the 6 hour surface pressure tendency to
be plus 10 mb by 9 PM tonight.
Per Bufkit soundings, there is some surface based CAPE for some
snow showers to use. SBCAPE is any where from 50 to 150 J/Kg.
Expecting some isolated to scattered snow showers to continue from
now through about 8 or 9 PM tonight. Some reduced visibilities
will be possible with the wind combined with some quick down burst
of snow in the north to northeast of the FA. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the northeast with due to blowing snow
and possible 1 inch of accumulations in spots.
Going into tonight temperatures are progged to drop into the teens
and twenties. Combined with the winds going into the overnight
hours, wind chills will drop into the single digits across much of
the area, especially in the north and west. Winds will gradually
start to decrease from west to east after midnight tonight. Clear
skies and calmer winds on Wednesday will allow temperatures to at
least rebound into the 40s. Wednesday night lows will be in the
low 20s.
Hoffeditz
LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
NW flow will dominate early in the period as troughing remains
across the great Lakes and ERN US. This will provide one more day
with below normal temps Thu, although the general warming trend
will have begun. It appears too dry for weak vorts in the NW flow
to provide any rain chances Thu-Fri (will keep eye on this), but
they will help usher a very weak reinforcing front across the
Panhandles late Thu.
As has been the pattern, some of the nicest weather of the week will
be reserved for the weekend as weak ridging moves across the area
between our storm systems which are on about a 7 day period/cycle.
West to SW low level flow will keep it warm and dry through the
weekend. A 150 kt+ westerly jet ahead of the next system will induce
a low pressure center near ERN CO or the NW Panhandles by late
Saturday, which will move east dragging a weak Pacific cold front
across the area on Sunday. This will cause winds to be a bit breezy,
esp across the south on Saturday and to a lesser extent on Sunday.
This is about where models solutions diverge as the next trough
approaches.
Big picture agreement between the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF is pretty good
initially on Monday as the next trough deepens across CA, but they
quickly diverge regarding the strength, track and overall evolution
of the system as it moves east toward the area. ECMWF is most
aggressive with precip potential with the initial trough, while the
GFS and GEM are much less. GEM and ECMWF show a secondary equally
impressive low forming to the west again, while the GFS does not.
Expect the majority to win out on this and not buying the GFS
solution attm. Bottom line, there is a wide variety of possible
solutions supported by the deterministic models and ensembles and
depending on which storm system evolution pans out, we could see
anything from a mostly dry system or systems (precip missing
elsewhere), to a mainly rain event, to an accumulating snow event
(or events) as all these are represented in the full envelope of
guidance. For now, blended forecasts show just slt chc of precip
with both rain and snow possible Mon and Tue (Tue has slightly
better chances). Main message here though is there is certainly
potential for significant storm system with greater impacts than
what would be suggested by the current POP/WX forecasts.
Gittinger
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Hansford...Lipscomb...Ochiltree.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
Wheeler.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Beaver...Texas.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.
&&
$$
15/7
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
900 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
No major changes are needed for this update. Snow showers over
central North Dakota continue to diminish in intensity and
coverage.
UPDATE Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
A line of scattered snow showers continues to move east over
central North Dakota late this afternoon. At 530 PM CST, the line
extended from near Rugby to Mandan to Elgin. A quick couple
tenths of an inch of snow is possible under any shower. These are
expected to slowly weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating.
The main adjustment for this forecast update was to add patchy fog
to much of central North Dakota tonight through Wednesday morning
based on consistent trends from the HRRR and RAP visibility
fields. Model soundings confirm a favorable setup for fog.
UPDATE Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Quick update to add isolated to scattered snow showers across
central into southwest North Dakota through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening. KBIS radar currently shows line of
snow showers from near Underwood to Hettinger, where visibility
has been reduced as low as 2 miles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Clouds continue to slowly clear from northwest to southeast this
afternoon as the upper-level wave/jet streak continue to slowly
progress eastward. Flurries continue to be picked up on radar
across east central North Dakota and these will likely continue
through the late afternoon hours across the James Valley. Tonight,
westerly winds and warm air advection kick in. This will further
aid in clearing out skies across western North Dakota.
Wednesday looks quiet with slightly warmer temperatures than
Tuesday with warm air advection and weak southwesterly flow
continuing. A trough develops across eastern Montana Wednesday.
This will bring increasing clouds to the west and perhaps a slight
chance of precipitation across western ND in the evening.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The extended forecast is highlighted by some low chances for
precipitation but otherwise quiet weather and above average
temperatures.
Mostly cloudy skies with northwest flow aloft, which will
continue into Thursday and Friday. Wave after wave after upper-
level wave will traverse the northern Plains this week. These
waves will be fast moving and have very little in the way of
surface support, so only slight chances of light precipitation are
anticipated.
For the weekend, upper-level ridging moves into the northern
Plains. The apex of the ridge should be centered over North
Dakota on Saturday, which is currently forecast to be the warmest
day as the far southwest could reach the low 50s. A cold front
will drop temperatures slightly for Sunday and into the start of
the work week, but not expecting any precipitation with the front
at the moment.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Scattered snow showers will pass near KBIS through 01Z, with MVFR
to near IFR visibility and MVFR ceilings possible. These snow
showers are not expected to make it to KJMS, but MVFR ceilings are
forecast to redevelop there later this evening, lasting into
Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog may develop across central ND
tonight into Wednesday morning, possibly impacting KBIS. Aside
from the aforementioned, VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period, along with light winds.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
631 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Very light snow continues to fall over our east and southeast.
Temperatures are a bit too warm to allow for much accumulation,
never mind the fact that it`s very light. I`ve run through our
grids with the latest short term guidance and ESTF updates, and
that now only comes up with 1 inch in 12 hours tonight, with
marginal road temperatures. This is really hardly worthy of a
headline in mid/late winter. I`ve been talking to surrounding WFOs
and am looking at a possible cancellation of advisory counties
around 7 PM unless radar shows any intensification. The HRRR
suggest this event will decrease after 03Z, so the time for any
significant impacts developing is limited. Light snow overnight
could be just as well handled by a SPS or Graphicast if it
briefly becomes more significant that light snow.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The upper level shortwave that helped produce the accumulating light
snow across northeast Missouri, far southeast Iowa and west central
Illinois this morning was seen on satellite water vapor imagery
weakening and exiting northeast toward Lake Michigan early this
afternoon. While area radars showed some remaining banded
reflectivity over northern IL into southeast Iowa, little
precipitation was reaching the ground due to dry air in the low
levels. A much larger, stronger upper level low, the second
feature involved with this complex storm system, was taking shape
over western KS. Temperatures over the local area were in the mid
30s to around 40 with gusty northeast winds from 15 to 25 mph with
a few sites gusting over 30 mph. The brisk winds were occurring
in the tight pressure gradient between low pressure, now over West
Virgina, and high pressure moving out of the Northern Rockies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The forecast challenge remains centered on the potential for
another round of light snow. Our latest forecast continues the
trend over past few cycles lowering expected snowfall amounts and
shifting the main snow axis further southeast. Based on this and
the later onset of snow this evening, the Winter Weather Advisory
has thus been cancelled for our Iowa and Missouri counties and now
confined to Bureau, Putnam, Hancock and McDonough counties in
west central Illinois beginning at 6 pm. Even there, forecast
snowfall totals for tonight of 1 to 2 inches may be optimistic.
However, with air and surface temperatures dropping well below
freezing, slick roads will be possible and the gusty northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph will cause some low end drifting snow
leading to slick roads and hazardous travel conditions. Current
timing has any snow quickly ending around sunrise, thus the
expiration time was moved up from noon to 9 am.
Snow will begin this evening as upper level lift ahead of the
central plains low and weak upper level jet level diffluence
overspread the region. This forcing is strongest across the
southern half of the forecast area and will produce snow as it
reaches the deeper moisture axis in place across just to the east
and southeast. All models have this low weakening and filling into
a longwave trough, resulting in rapidly diminishing forcing
overnight. There is a near model consensus showing an axis of
developing light snow roughly southeast of a line from Sterling,
IL to Burlington, IA this evening, then shifting eastward out of
the area by roughly 7 am.
The roughly tenth of an inch or less QPF and increasing snow to
liquid ratios inching toward the mid teens will support snowfall in
the range of 1 to 2 inches. This will likely result in a sharp
cutoff in accumulations, with a dusting a best further west along
the MS River and and far northwest IL. There is some suggestion in
hi res models of possible elevated banding that could produce
flurries over east central Iowa overnight, but this potential looks
too low to mention due to the dry layer aloft seen on KDVN soundings
today, which is even more pronounced on forecast soundings for areas
to the northwest.
Wednesday looks brisk and a bit colder with cloud cover gradually
decreasing as high pressure approaches from the west in the
afternoon. Highs may only reach the upper 20s along the highway 20
corridor to the mid 30s central and south.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will be seen to
end the month of February. Warmer conditions return to the area
Sunday and continue through much of next week.
Wednesday night-Friday night...cyclonic flow will be seen to begin
the extended forecast, as the southern stream wave merges with the
northern stream low over southeast Ontario. Cold air will continue
to filter into the Midwest with strong CAA aloft and 850 mb temps
dropping into the -12 to -13C range. This will keep highs in the
upper 20s/low 30s and lows in the teens through Saturday. If we had
more of a snow pack other than across our north, then temps may have
been even colder.
A weak surface low is progged to move into southwest IA by 18z
Thursday. Moisture is lacking, but this system still may bring
flurries or very light snow to portions of the area and have
maintained slight chances for this possibility across the far south.
Cloud cover will also increase with this system, especially
across the south and have raised Friday min temps a degree from
the NBM. The latest NAM and ECMWF bring in another weak clipper on
Friday night that may bring more flurries and clouds to the area.
Saturday-Sunday night...quiet conditions will be seen, as mid level
ridging tracks over the area, transitioning the pattern to
southwest flow. WAA aloft and late February sun will help boost
afternoon temperatures into the 40s and even lower 50s. Raised
highs on Saturday and Sunday from the model blend, as initial
load of highs was on the lower side of guidance. I also have
noticed that the blend has been too cold as of late with our past
warmup on Sunday.
Rest of extended...A closed low develops over the southwest CONUS
Sunday night. How and when this low ejects out of this area will be
key as to what impacts we may see early next week. The 12z GFS/CMC
show a stronger jet associated with this low compared to the 12z
ECMWF. This results in the low lifting out faster and as a
positively tilted trough near the CWA on Wednesday. Conversely, the
12z ECWMF has a weaker jet and a more meridional flow ahead of
the wave, resulting in a negatively tiled trough over the area on
Wednesday. Right now, the best chances for precipitation are
centered on Monday night with rain initially, changing to snow as
the night progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
High MVFR to lower VFR Cigs will continue as snow falls over much
of Illinois tonight. This should be close to, but not consistently
in MLI and BRL. Otherwise, winds will gradually shift more
northwesterly with time, and cigs should remain mainly lower VFR
through late morning, when northwest winds bring in another round
of MVFR stratus at that time, through the afternoon.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Bureau-
Hancock-McDonough-Putnam.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...Sheets
SHORT TERM...Sheets
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1004 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
LATEST UPDATE...
Update
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
- Snow moves in this evening with some impacts forecasted through
Wednesday
- Lake effect snow showers and colder Thursday
- Quiet weather for the weekend
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
It would seem based on several runs of the HRRR (18z to 00z), the
HRRRX, RAP, NAM12, and NAMNEST (18z and 00z) our snowfall forecast
is on track. Seems the north edge of the one inch snowfall is from
about Holland to Grand Rapids to Alma, three inches is more like
Allegan to St Johns, and 4 to 6 inches is in the I-69 area. Most
of this snow should fall during the daytime hours of Wednesday
when the main upper level system starts to merge with the northern
stream system. The track of the 700 mb low tracks from just south
of South Bend at 10 am Wednesday to Lake St Clair by 8 pm. The
track of the 700 mb low is typically the location of the heaviest
snowfall. That is close to where our forecast has the heaviest
snowfall. So, once again, our ongoing forecast looks good at this
point.
UPDATE
There is an initial area of light snow moving northward through
our southern CWA at 640 pm this evening. This is a response to a
mid level shortwave which is very clearly seen on the water vapor
image loops, the axis of which is west to near near I-80. That
lifts through the area by midnight. It will bring and inch or less
of snow to the area near and south of I-96 (GRR to LAN) with the
greatest snowfall from this feature being between BTL and JXN.
Once that lifts out there may be a break in the snowfall for a few
hours. Then the main upper air system, currently centered over
Kansas (at 640 pm). It is this feature as it heads northeast,
starting to merge with the northern stream digging shortwave that
will bring most of the snowfall to our region. It still looks like
most of the significant snow will fall south of a line from South
Haven to near Alma, in that area I would think 3 to 6 inches of
snow will fall by 6 pm Wednesday. Just north of that in a 30 mile
wide band 1 to 2 inches of snow is likely. North of that I would
think very little snow will fall. Looking at the HRRR and HRRRX
time sections winds will get rather gusty Wednesday afternoon. I
could see surface winds gusting to over 30 mph. That will result i
blowing and drifting snow as the colder air moves into the system
from the north. The bottom line is I believe our advisory is on
target.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
- Snow moves in this evening with some impacts forecasted through
Wednesday
Overall the latest model runs are generally been in decent
agreement showing the most snow to fall roughly along and south of
of a line from South Haven to near St Johns. This area roughly
covers the Winter Storm Watch region...but it does clip parts of
Allegan and Ionia counties. Since forecasted amounts are likely
to end up below warning criteria...we will change the Watch to a
Winter Weather Advisory with generally 3 to 6 inches of snow
forecasted. We also included Allegan and Ionia Counties as parts
of those counties could see impacts...especially with US-131 and
I-96 close to the steadier snow. We should maintain close
monitoring of the storm as the High Res Euro shifted the axis of
heavier snow northwest with its most recent run. This could put
southeast parts of Kent County in some steadier snow for a period.
The snow starts up by this evening. Road temperatures are likely
to be initially warm...but they will fall of through the evening.
Then the snow persists into Wednesday. While daytime temperatures
may make a run at freezing...they should fall off mid to late
afternoon as the arctic airmass starts spilling in.
- Lake effect snow showers and colder Thursday
An impressively cold airmass arrives Wednesday night and stays
over the area into Friday. Temperatures at 925 mb drop down to -10
deg C or colder. This would keep temperatures below freezing and
support lake effect snow showers. Inversion heights are forecasted
to drop off Thursday night into Friday somewhat so the snow
showers could decrease somewhat but will need to monitor trends
here.
- Quiet weather for the weekend
A mid level ridge sets up in the Upper Plains and gradually builds
east Saturday into Sunday. We will need to monitor if one more
shortwave can drop down from the NW into the Great Lakes Region
before the ridge arrives. This is unlikely to happen so we will
continue to go with a quiet pattern and temperatures returning to
values more typical for this time of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For 706 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
A snow storm is moving into our CWA as I write this. The AZO, BTL,
JXN and LAN TAF sites will be IFR/LIFR most of the time from 06z
through 23z Wednesday. GRR is on the northern edge and could go
either way, I put GRR MVFR tonight and IFR during the day time
Wednesday but even tonight there may be brief periods of IFR as
the snow bands move north into the GRR area and dissipate (dry air
mid levels from here north).
MKG should stay VFR into Wednesday the snow area should remain
east of there. It is not until the polar air moves in during the
afternoon that MKG may see MVFR cigs and possible snow showers, I
put VCSH for that possibility.
Actually there are two snow areas that will impact our TAF sites.
The one moving northward into our TAFs as I write this is from a
lead shortwave that will rotate north and east of this area by
06z. Once that happens the snow will diminish for a few hours.
Toward 12z the snow from the main system will move in and will be
heaviest in the afternoon for our I-94 and I-69 TAF sites. The
HRRR time sections show 35 knots in the mix layer Wed afternoon in
the snow area so I expect gusty northeast winds that will likely
lead to some blowing snow. This could result in near zero
visibilities at time so if you have to land at one of those TAF
sites Wednesday afternoon I would be aware of that in your
planning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
Winds will increase considerably into Wednesday as the storm
system that approaches the area intensifies. Gales are possible as
the mixing height increases Wednesday afternoon and evening and
could tap into the 35 knot winds up around 925 mb. The winds will
then slowly diminish during the day on Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
Several forecast points on the rivers are forecasted to see water
levels approach action stage. The melting snow from the past few
days is the main reason for the expected rises. With additional
snow and colder weather forecasted...any additional runoff will be
limited/delayed til the next warmup.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ058-059-
064>067-071>074.
LM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday
night for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...MJS
DISCUSSION...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
A significant snowfall event has unfolded today in central Kansas,
with impressive snowfall rates within bands of heavy snow.
Reports of a foot or more of snow have been received from Lincoln
County, and amounts of 6 inches or more have been received
stretching from Ellsworth, McPherson, and Marion Counties. As the
main upper low continues to dig south across southern Kansas,
bands of snow will continue to slide into south central Kansas
this afternoon and this evening. Further into southeast Kansas,
rain will be the primary precipitation type before transitioning
to snow and then exiting this evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The forecast was updated to expire the winter storm warning and
expand/extend the winter weather advisory for a couple more hours
across cental and portions of south central/southeast KS as some
moderate bursts of snow will linger through the early evening
hours. By mid to late evening, conditions are expected to rapdily
improve as the mid/upper trough moves away from the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Early afternoon radar imagery shows a swath of snow, ranging from
light to heavy in intensity, stretching across much of central
and a few south central Kansas counties at this time. The heaviest
snow has been occurring within a band of very impressive lift
within the -12C to -18C layer in conjunction with steep 700mb-
500mb lapse rates of roughly 7-8 degrees C per km. In southeast
Kansas, warmer surface temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s
have resulted in light rain or drizzle dominating the
precipitation type.
For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expecting that the
broad area of precipitation will continue to track southward into
south central Kansas. Temperatures have continued to cool
throughout the past few hours, dropping into the low to mid-30s at
various sites in south central Kansas. Therefore, expecting a
transition to snow across south central Kansas this afternoon,
including the Wichita metro. Models have struggled with snowfall
accumulation amounts throughout this event, vastly under-
estimating amounts within heavier bands while over-doing broad-
brushed amounts in areas that have yet to receive any snow in
south central Kansas. Fortunately, as the system rotates though,
expecting a quicker- hitting round of precipitation so the much
larger amounts that were received earlier this morning up in
central Kansas appear unlikely in southern Kansas tonight. Based
on a comparison of current radar with model omega, thickness, and
relative humidity fields within the dendritic growth zone, it
seems that the 12z GFS and the latest RAP seem to have the best
handle area-wise. Based on latest data, still expecting around and
inch or two at most south central KS locations, but amounts could
be higher where any bands set up. Most models also continue to
indicate that there will be an axis of decent lift for the rest of
the afternoon into early evening somewhere in the vicinity of
Butler, Elk, and Chautauqua Counties. Fortunately, temperatures
are still much warmer in this location, so much of what falls here
could be rain but with some snow mixed in later this evening.
Will continue to hold on to the Winter Weather headlines as they
are for now in collaboration with surrounding WFOs to account for
one last small band of light snow currently in southern Nebraska
and far northern Kansas.
A surface ridge will slide across the Southern Plains during the
day tomorrow. Well-below normal temperatures look to continue for
one more day, especially in areas that received larger snow totals
today. However, looking ahead through the rest of the work week,
a surface low will slide across northeast Kansas Thursday but the
area should remain mostly, if not all, dry. Moderating
temperatures appear likely, with highs recovering into the mid-to-
upper 50s by Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The warming trend will continue into the weekend with
temperatures climbing into the 60s. Some locations near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border may even approach the 70 degree mark by
Sunday. Our next shot at precipitation will come sometime early
next week, though this appears to be mostly rain other than a
brief chance of wintry mix in central Kansas during the overnight
periods. Afternoon highs will remain in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Widespread MVFR/IFR were impacting the region early this evening
as a vigorous trough deepens across the Central Plains. This
trough is progged to lift rapidly ENE away from the area this
evening allowing improving flight conditions after 03-05Z for much
of the area. The exception may be much of eastern Kansas where
MVFR cigs may linger through the night. A ridge of high pressure
will bring decreasing winds and VFR to the region on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 24 38 24 50 / 70 0 0 0
Hutchinson 22 37 22 48 / 90 0 0 0
Newton 22 36 21 47 / 70 0 0 0
ElDorado 24 37 22 48 / 70 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 26 40 24 51 / 80 0 0 0
Russell 19 36 21 46 / 50 0 0 0
Great Bend 19 37 22 48 / 80 0 0 0
Salina 21 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0
McPherson 21 36 21 46 / 80 0 0 0
Coffeyville 28 39 23 51 / 70 10 0 0
Chanute 27 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0
Iola 26 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 27 38 23 50 / 70 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
KSZ067>070.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MWM
SYNOPSIS...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
A closed H5 low was located over NW Kansas in the
vicinity of Colby this morning. This low was part of a trough which
extended south into the Texas Panhandle. As of midday, WV imagery
has the low roughly between Great Bend and Dodge City Kansas.
Upstream of this feature, high amplitude ridging extended up the
northwestern coast of the US into northern portions of British
Columbia. East of the central CONUS low, broad southwesterly flow
aloft extended from central Texas into the Carolinas and Mid
Atlantic states. At the surface, high pressure was located over
eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over the upper Ohio Valley
with a cold front extending south into the Florida Panhandle. A
decent pressure gradient was located between the high and low and
extended from eastern Colorado into the western Great Lakes. This
decent pressure gradient has led to some gusty winds this afternoon.
Winds as of 2 PM CT, gusted as high as 33 MPH at Imperial. Skies
were mostly cloudy and light snow was occurring along and south of
the Interstate. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 26 at Gordon,
to 34 at O`Neill.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
The winter weather advisory was allowed to expired with
visibilites area-wide P6SM and snow no longer occurring, except
for light flurries in extreme southwest NEB. Overall, the threat
for accumulating snow has ended with improved visibilities area-
wide. Blustery north winds continue with gusts up to 30 mph,
however, these winds be diminishing early this evening. Some low-
end drifting snow is possible this evening before winds lessen to
5-10 late this evening. Motorists should continue to seek the
latest road conditions from Nebraska 511 given road conditions
(partially covered with mixed snow, ice, or slush).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
Inherited winter weather advisory
remains in effect until midnight CST for all but the northeastern
portion of the forecast area. Based on the latest HRRR soln and
NAM12 soln, locations north of the Interstate should see and end in
snowfall by 3 PM CST with the remainder of the forecast area being
snow free around 6 PM CST. Winds will remain fairly gusty through
this afternoon, decreasing quickly after 6 PM. This shows up in the
Bufkit soundings for Imperial, which indicates decent mixing through
5 PM MT. That being said, feel comfortable keeping the southwest in
an advisory through 6 PM CT (5 PM MT). A secondary, weak disturbance
will track from western South Dakota into the forecast area tonight.
This will spread some mid and high cloudiness to the forecast area.
The expected cloudiness and northerly winds, will give a slight
boost to temps tonight. Even with fresh snow cover, these two
elements should temper the cooldown tonight and have opted for lows
in the teens with some readings around 10 in the Pine Ridge. Skies
will clear some on Wednesday with warmer temperatures forecast in
the central and western forecast area. The warm up will be limited
though by light winds and only weak mixing. H85 temps at 21z
Wednesday, range from zero in the central Nebraska Panhandle, to
-10c in the far northeast. Corresponding highs will range from
around 30 in the far northeast, to near 40 in the far southwest. A
clipper system will slide across the Dakotas Wednesday night,
forcing a cold front into mainly northeastern Nebraska. Clouds in
association with the clipper and embedded vort max will increase.
Though the bulk of the forecast area will see no precipitation with
this system, could not rule out some low precip chances in the Pine
Ridge. This seems reasonable given the northwesterly flow aloft and
at the surface, which could locally enhance precipitation in the
Pine Ridge. That being said, introduced some low pops in the far NW
for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
For the following 72 hours from Thursday night into Sunday
afternoon a dry forecast is favored. For Thursday, some
precipitation may develop across the northwest in advance of an
approaching warm front. Behind the front, temperatures will trend
upward for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday may reach
60 in the southwest and will be the warmest day of the period. A
broad trough of low pressure aloft will build into the
intermountain west Sunday. As this feature migrates east, it will
force a cold front through the forecast area Sunday night. Mid
level lift will overspread the front into Monday night with a
chance for rain or snow. Right now this is a fairly low confidence
forecast as the main trough dives south into northern Mexico. The
belief is, QPF seems over forecast as there is a strong northern
stream trough which traverses the Dakotas and southern Canada.
This tends to favor a dry forecast on the high plains as the mid
level flow is northwesterly or westerly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
VFR conditions are expected across southwestern Nebraska for the
next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist across north
central Nebraska through the night. Ceilings are expected to lift
by sunrise with VFR conditions expected during the day Wednesday.
Strong northwest winds will start to diminish across western and
north central Nebraska tonight, then will switch to southwest
Wednesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Boatwright/Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
637 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020
Well, it`s February and we`re in Upper Michigan so we couldn`t
expect the sunny skies to persist much longer than they did. This
period signals the return to lake-effect -shsn as colder air gets
pulled into the Great Lakes. A developing low pressure across the
deformation axis in the Ohio River Valley will move into New England
tonight, as colder air is drawn over Lake Superior behind it. More
locally, outside of a few scattered flurries there isn`t much going
on besides the increasing cloud coverage.
Tonight, models suggest 850mb temps will fall as inversions begin to
rise. The combination between the two will push the column into the
DGZ as lake-effect -SHSN begins to pick up. Current RAP analysis
shows current 850 temps near -10 to -11C. By 00Z tonight, models
suggest these temps will fall closer to the -12 to -13C range. By
06Z, models begin to show temps in the -13 to -15C range, which is
where I have begun to increase PoPs across the respective snow
belts. Models show northerly winds veering more northeasterly
tonight with some wavering between the models. Have increased PoPs
on the periphery to account for some of this wavering. One issue
with the lake-effect chances will be the slight shear in the wind
profiles. High-res models show some disagreement with the wind
profiles, but suggest sfc and 925mb winds to take on more of a NE
component, while 850mb winds remain slightly more northerly. Don`t
suggest this to cut off all LES, but could limit any potential
significant bands from persisting. Snow ratios slowly increase from
the mid teens early, towards 20:1 as sounding profiles trend further
to the left and DGZ becomes saturated. 1 to 2 inches across the
higher terrain of Marquette County and far west along the lake
Superior shoreline seems reasonable with scattered amounts around an
inch elsewhere through 12Z tomorrow.
Models suggest wind profiles come together tomorrow as they slowly
back from NE to NW through the day tomorrow for central and eastern
UP. Winds across the west will retain a more northerly component as
a passing high pressure through Canada maintains an influence. High-
res models suggest the possibility of some dominant bands to form
along the increased convergence as NE winds "collide" with the more
northerly winds across western Lake Superior. From a thermodynamic
standpoint, profiles will remain consistent with saturation through
the DGZ and inversions between 4-5kft. Have included some of the
high-res guidance wrt the convergent band chances, which gives the
chance for for an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow for
locations that get these dominant bands out west in the N to NE wind
LES belts. Important to note that the higher snow totals will remain
more localized and not a guarantee, so any headlines at this
juncture seems premature. Outside of this convergent band, 1 to 2
inches seems like the more probable solution. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 20s, with
some upper 20s in the south-central.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020
Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail into
next week with mid/upper level troughing through the central CONUS
giving way to ridging by Sunday and southwest flow early next week
as a trough moves into the west. After Cold conditions with
northerly flow LES, temps will climb back above average by Sunday.
Snow/rain chances are then expected early next week as moisture
moves back into the region.
Wednesday night, conditions will be favorable for at least moderate
LES with 850 mb temps around -18C, moisture to 700 mb as the mid
level trough approaches, and cyclonic northerly flow. SLR values
at or above 20/1 with the DGZ in the convective layer, will
support fluffy snow accumulations of a few/several inches for
north wind favored locations in the west half.
Thu, slowly backing winds to nnw will gradually shift the best low
level conv and heavier bands into the east half. Surface ridging
with low level dry air into western Lake Superior will limit any
additional accumulations from IWD to CMX.
Thu night into Fri, nw low level flow with continued deep moisture
through 700 mb and 850 temps around -18C will bring potential for
additional moderate to possibly heavy LES into the east half,
especially if lake induced troughing and land breeze development
result in stronger dominant bands.
Sat-Sun, the LES will end by early Saturday as the sfc ridge move in
and winds become offshore. WAA will boost temps into the upper 20s
Sat with a decent amount of sunshine and into the mid 30s Sun.
Mon-Tue, precipitation chances will increase by Monday as a sfc
trough and a weak mid level northern stream trough approaches with
increasing moisture advection. However, confidence is low with the
timing and pcpn type given temps near or slightly above freezing and
model differences.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020
As colder air continues to move over Lake Superior in a northerly
flow, MVFR lake-effect cigs and light lake-effect snow showers
will continue to develop and persist. MVFR vsbys are generally
expected during -SHSN although IFR vsbys may develop Wed afternoon
as snow showers could be enhanced by a mid-level trough moving in
from the west.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 318 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020
With a passing high pressure in Canada and a developing low pressure
in Ohio River Valley, northerly winds will remain elevated with
gusts approaching 30 knots at times through Wednesday morning. This
low pressure deepens and moves up the New England coast on Thursday,
bringing an increase in winds back across the eastern half of the
lake from the N to NW...with gusts up to 30 knots again. The
gradient relaxes on Friday as winds relax below 10 knots in the west
and 25 knots in the east. High pressure dominates the weekend as
winds look to remain light, below 20 knots.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAW
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
847 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sharp upper trough currently incoming, and is set to pass on
Wed...along with a weak SFC boundary. LL moisture advection
currently ongoing but moisture will really deepen after midnight,
and remain that way through much of tomorrow. A few light showers
already occurring but showers will increase later tonight,
remaining fairly widespread on Wed, especially across the east.
Realigned pops slightly, and made small adjustments down to
overnight lows.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A cold front is poised to move across Middle
Tennessee during the next several hours, although there are very
few echoes on radar now and the HRRR shows scant echoes during the
evening and overnight period. Look for ceilings to lower behind
the front, and will remain IFR/LIFR throughout most of the TAF
period. A strong upper trough will enter the mid state by tomorrow
afternoon, with light showers developing across the region
throughout the day.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........08