Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .AVIATION... Snow showers will take conditions down into the IFR range briefly through about 8 to 9 pm. North winds will gradually decrease through the night and they should stay around 10 knots or less from early morning on Wednesday through the day. Skies are expected to be VFR once the snow showers dissipate by mid evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night Current satellite and model analysis has an H5 low pressure system over southwest Kansas and parts of the northwest FA. Water vapor is seen wrapped around the northern and western edge of the low. High winds of 35 to 35 mph with gust up to 55 mph have already been observed across much of the area primarily in the northwest. The 18Z RAP is suggesting the 6 hour surface pressure tendency to be plus 10 mb by 9 PM tonight. Per Bufkit soundings, there is some surface based CAPE for some snow showers to use. SBCAPE is any where from 50 to 150 J/Kg. Expecting some isolated to scattered snow showers to continue from now through about 8 or 9 PM tonight. Some reduced visibilities will be possible with the wind combined with some quick down burst of snow in the north to northeast of the FA. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the northeast with due to blowing snow and possible 1 inch of accumulations in spots. Going into tonight temperatures are progged to drop into the teens and twenties. Combined with the winds going into the overnight hours, wind chills will drop into the single digits across much of the area, especially in the north and west. Winds will gradually start to decrease from west to east after midnight tonight. Clear skies and calmer winds on Wednesday will allow temperatures to at least rebound into the 40s. Wednesday night lows will be in the low 20s. Hoffeditz LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday... NW flow will dominate early in the period as troughing remains across the great Lakes and ERN US. This will provide one more day with below normal temps Thu, although the general warming trend will have begun. It appears too dry for weak vorts in the NW flow to provide any rain chances Thu-Fri (will keep eye on this), but they will help usher a very weak reinforcing front across the Panhandles late Thu. As has been the pattern, some of the nicest weather of the week will be reserved for the weekend as weak ridging moves across the area between our storm systems which are on about a 7 day period/cycle. West to SW low level flow will keep it warm and dry through the weekend. A 150 kt+ westerly jet ahead of the next system will induce a low pressure center near ERN CO or the NW Panhandles by late Saturday, which will move east dragging a weak Pacific cold front across the area on Sunday. This will cause winds to be a bit breezy, esp across the south on Saturday and to a lesser extent on Sunday. This is about where models solutions diverge as the next trough approaches. Big picture agreement between the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF is pretty good initially on Monday as the next trough deepens across CA, but they quickly diverge regarding the strength, track and overall evolution of the system as it moves east toward the area. ECMWF is most aggressive with precip potential with the initial trough, while the GFS and GEM are much less. GEM and ECMWF show a secondary equally impressive low forming to the west again, while the GFS does not. Expect the majority to win out on this and not buying the GFS solution attm. Bottom line, there is a wide variety of possible solutions supported by the deterministic models and ensembles and depending on which storm system evolution pans out, we could see anything from a mostly dry system or systems (precip missing elsewhere), to a mainly rain event, to an accumulating snow event (or events) as all these are represented in the full envelope of guidance. For now, blended forecasts show just slt chc of precip with both rain and snow possible Mon and Tue (Tue has slightly better chances). Main message here though is there is certainly potential for significant storm system with greater impacts than what would be suggested by the current POP/WX forecasts. Gittinger && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Hansford...Lipscomb...Ochiltree. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill... Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman... Wheeler. OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Beaver...Texas. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 15/7
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
900 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 859 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 No major changes are needed for this update. Snow showers over central North Dakota continue to diminish in intensity and coverage. UPDATE Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 A line of scattered snow showers continues to move east over central North Dakota late this afternoon. At 530 PM CST, the line extended from near Rugby to Mandan to Elgin. A quick couple tenths of an inch of snow is possible under any shower. These are expected to slowly weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. The main adjustment for this forecast update was to add patchy fog to much of central North Dakota tonight through Wednesday morning based on consistent trends from the HRRR and RAP visibility fields. Model soundings confirm a favorable setup for fog. UPDATE Issued at 332 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Quick update to add isolated to scattered snow showers across central into southwest North Dakota through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. KBIS radar currently shows line of snow showers from near Underwood to Hettinger, where visibility has been reduced as low as 2 miles. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 103 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Clouds continue to slowly clear from northwest to southeast this afternoon as the upper-level wave/jet streak continue to slowly progress eastward. Flurries continue to be picked up on radar across east central North Dakota and these will likely continue through the late afternoon hours across the James Valley. Tonight, westerly winds and warm air advection kick in. This will further aid in clearing out skies across western North Dakota. Wednesday looks quiet with slightly warmer temperatures than Tuesday with warm air advection and weak southwesterly flow continuing. A trough develops across eastern Montana Wednesday. This will bring increasing clouds to the west and perhaps a slight chance of precipitation across western ND in the evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 103 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The extended forecast is highlighted by some low chances for precipitation but otherwise quiet weather and above average temperatures. Mostly cloudy skies with northwest flow aloft, which will continue into Thursday and Friday. Wave after wave after upper- level wave will traverse the northern Plains this week. These waves will be fast moving and have very little in the way of surface support, so only slight chances of light precipitation are anticipated. For the weekend, upper-level ridging moves into the northern Plains. The apex of the ridge should be centered over North Dakota on Saturday, which is currently forecast to be the warmest day as the far southwest could reach the low 50s. A cold front will drop temperatures slightly for Sunday and into the start of the work week, but not expecting any precipitation with the front at the moment. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Scattered snow showers will pass near KBIS through 01Z, with MVFR to near IFR visibility and MVFR ceilings possible. These snow showers are not expected to make it to KJMS, but MVFR ceilings are forecast to redevelop there later this evening, lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog may develop across central ND tonight into Wednesday morning, possibly impacting KBIS. Aside from the aforementioned, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, along with light winds. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
631 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Very light snow continues to fall over our east and southeast. Temperatures are a bit too warm to allow for much accumulation, never mind the fact that it`s very light. I`ve run through our grids with the latest short term guidance and ESTF updates, and that now only comes up with 1 inch in 12 hours tonight, with marginal road temperatures. This is really hardly worthy of a headline in mid/late winter. I`ve been talking to surrounding WFOs and am looking at a possible cancellation of advisory counties around 7 PM unless radar shows any intensification. The HRRR suggest this event will decrease after 03Z, so the time for any significant impacts developing is limited. Light snow overnight could be just as well handled by a SPS or Graphicast if it briefly becomes more significant that light snow. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The upper level shortwave that helped produce the accumulating light snow across northeast Missouri, far southeast Iowa and west central Illinois this morning was seen on satellite water vapor imagery weakening and exiting northeast toward Lake Michigan early this afternoon. While area radars showed some remaining banded reflectivity over northern IL into southeast Iowa, little precipitation was reaching the ground due to dry air in the low levels. A much larger, stronger upper level low, the second feature involved with this complex storm system, was taking shape over western KS. Temperatures over the local area were in the mid 30s to around 40 with gusty northeast winds from 15 to 25 mph with a few sites gusting over 30 mph. The brisk winds were occurring in the tight pressure gradient between low pressure, now over West Virgina, and high pressure moving out of the Northern Rockies. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The forecast challenge remains centered on the potential for another round of light snow. Our latest forecast continues the trend over past few cycles lowering expected snowfall amounts and shifting the main snow axis further southeast. Based on this and the later onset of snow this evening, the Winter Weather Advisory has thus been cancelled for our Iowa and Missouri counties and now confined to Bureau, Putnam, Hancock and McDonough counties in west central Illinois beginning at 6 pm. Even there, forecast snowfall totals for tonight of 1 to 2 inches may be optimistic. However, with air and surface temperatures dropping well below freezing, slick roads will be possible and the gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will cause some low end drifting snow leading to slick roads and hazardous travel conditions. Current timing has any snow quickly ending around sunrise, thus the expiration time was moved up from noon to 9 am. Snow will begin this evening as upper level lift ahead of the central plains low and weak upper level jet level diffluence overspread the region. This forcing is strongest across the southern half of the forecast area and will produce snow as it reaches the deeper moisture axis in place across just to the east and southeast. All models have this low weakening and filling into a longwave trough, resulting in rapidly diminishing forcing overnight. There is a near model consensus showing an axis of developing light snow roughly southeast of a line from Sterling, IL to Burlington, IA this evening, then shifting eastward out of the area by roughly 7 am. The roughly tenth of an inch or less QPF and increasing snow to liquid ratios inching toward the mid teens will support snowfall in the range of 1 to 2 inches. This will likely result in a sharp cutoff in accumulations, with a dusting a best further west along the MS River and and far northwest IL. There is some suggestion in hi res models of possible elevated banding that could produce flurries over east central Iowa overnight, but this potential looks too low to mention due to the dry layer aloft seen on KDVN soundings today, which is even more pronounced on forecast soundings for areas to the northwest. Wednesday looks brisk and a bit colder with cloud cover gradually decreasing as high pressure approaches from the west in the afternoon. Highs may only reach the upper 20s along the highway 20 corridor to the mid 30s central and south. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 245 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will be seen to end the month of February. Warmer conditions return to the area Sunday and continue through much of next week. Wednesday night-Friday night...cyclonic flow will be seen to begin the extended forecast, as the southern stream wave merges with the northern stream low over southeast Ontario. Cold air will continue to filter into the Midwest with strong CAA aloft and 850 mb temps dropping into the -12 to -13C range. This will keep highs in the upper 20s/low 30s and lows in the teens through Saturday. If we had more of a snow pack other than across our north, then temps may have been even colder. A weak surface low is progged to move into southwest IA by 18z Thursday. Moisture is lacking, but this system still may bring flurries or very light snow to portions of the area and have maintained slight chances for this possibility across the far south. Cloud cover will also increase with this system, especially across the south and have raised Friday min temps a degree from the NBM. The latest NAM and ECMWF bring in another weak clipper on Friday night that may bring more flurries and clouds to the area. Saturday-Sunday night...quiet conditions will be seen, as mid level ridging tracks over the area, transitioning the pattern to southwest flow. WAA aloft and late February sun will help boost afternoon temperatures into the 40s and even lower 50s. Raised highs on Saturday and Sunday from the model blend, as initial load of highs was on the lower side of guidance. I also have noticed that the blend has been too cold as of late with our past warmup on Sunday. Rest of extended...A closed low develops over the southwest CONUS Sunday night. How and when this low ejects out of this area will be key as to what impacts we may see early next week. The 12z GFS/CMC show a stronger jet associated with this low compared to the 12z ECMWF. This results in the low lifting out faster and as a positively tilted trough near the CWA on Wednesday. Conversely, the 12z ECWMF has a weaker jet and a more meridional flow ahead of the wave, resulting in a negatively tiled trough over the area on Wednesday. Right now, the best chances for precipitation are centered on Monday night with rain initially, changing to snow as the night progresses. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening) ISSUED AT 530 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 High MVFR to lower VFR Cigs will continue as snow falls over much of Illinois tonight. This should be close to, but not consistently in MLI and BRL. Otherwise, winds will gradually shift more northwesterly with time, and cigs should remain mainly lower VFR through late morning, when northwest winds bring in another round of MVFR stratus at that time, through the afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Bureau- Hancock-McDonough-Putnam. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Ervin SYNOPSIS...Sheets SHORT TERM...Sheets LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Ervin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1004 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Update .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 - Snow moves in this evening with some impacts forecasted through Wednesday - Lake effect snow showers and colder Thursday - Quiet weather for the weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 It would seem based on several runs of the HRRR (18z to 00z), the HRRRX, RAP, NAM12, and NAMNEST (18z and 00z) our snowfall forecast is on track. Seems the north edge of the one inch snowfall is from about Holland to Grand Rapids to Alma, three inches is more like Allegan to St Johns, and 4 to 6 inches is in the I-69 area. Most of this snow should fall during the daytime hours of Wednesday when the main upper level system starts to merge with the northern stream system. The track of the 700 mb low tracks from just south of South Bend at 10 am Wednesday to Lake St Clair by 8 pm. The track of the 700 mb low is typically the location of the heaviest snowfall. That is close to where our forecast has the heaviest snowfall. So, once again, our ongoing forecast looks good at this point. UPDATE There is an initial area of light snow moving northward through our southern CWA at 640 pm this evening. This is a response to a mid level shortwave which is very clearly seen on the water vapor image loops, the axis of which is west to near near I-80. That lifts through the area by midnight. It will bring and inch or less of snow to the area near and south of I-96 (GRR to LAN) with the greatest snowfall from this feature being between BTL and JXN. Once that lifts out there may be a break in the snowfall for a few hours. Then the main upper air system, currently centered over Kansas (at 640 pm). It is this feature as it heads northeast, starting to merge with the northern stream digging shortwave that will bring most of the snowfall to our region. It still looks like most of the significant snow will fall south of a line from South Haven to near Alma, in that area I would think 3 to 6 inches of snow will fall by 6 pm Wednesday. Just north of that in a 30 mile wide band 1 to 2 inches of snow is likely. North of that I would think very little snow will fall. Looking at the HRRR and HRRRX time sections winds will get rather gusty Wednesday afternoon. I could see surface winds gusting to over 30 mph. That will result i blowing and drifting snow as the colder air moves into the system from the north. The bottom line is I believe our advisory is on target. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 - Snow moves in this evening with some impacts forecasted through Wednesday Overall the latest model runs are generally been in decent agreement showing the most snow to fall roughly along and south of of a line from South Haven to near St Johns. This area roughly covers the Winter Storm Watch region...but it does clip parts of Allegan and Ionia counties. Since forecasted amounts are likely to end up below warning criteria...we will change the Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory with generally 3 to 6 inches of snow forecasted. We also included Allegan and Ionia Counties as parts of those counties could see impacts...especially with US-131 and I-96 close to the steadier snow. We should maintain close monitoring of the storm as the High Res Euro shifted the axis of heavier snow northwest with its most recent run. This could put southeast parts of Kent County in some steadier snow for a period. The snow starts up by this evening. Road temperatures are likely to be initially warm...but they will fall of through the evening. Then the snow persists into Wednesday. While daytime temperatures may make a run at freezing...they should fall off mid to late afternoon as the arctic airmass starts spilling in. - Lake effect snow showers and colder Thursday An impressively cold airmass arrives Wednesday night and stays over the area into Friday. Temperatures at 925 mb drop down to -10 deg C or colder. This would keep temperatures below freezing and support lake effect snow showers. Inversion heights are forecasted to drop off Thursday night into Friday somewhat so the snow showers could decrease somewhat but will need to monitor trends here. - Quiet weather for the weekend A mid level ridge sets up in the Upper Plains and gradually builds east Saturday into Sunday. We will need to monitor if one more shortwave can drop down from the NW into the Great Lakes Region before the ridge arrives. This is unlikely to happen so we will continue to go with a quiet pattern and temperatures returning to values more typical for this time of the year. && .AVIATION...(For 706 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 A snow storm is moving into our CWA as I write this. The AZO, BTL, JXN and LAN TAF sites will be IFR/LIFR most of the time from 06z through 23z Wednesday. GRR is on the northern edge and could go either way, I put GRR MVFR tonight and IFR during the day time Wednesday but even tonight there may be brief periods of IFR as the snow bands move north into the GRR area and dissipate (dry air mid levels from here north). MKG should stay VFR into Wednesday the snow area should remain east of there. It is not until the polar air moves in during the afternoon that MKG may see MVFR cigs and possible snow showers, I put VCSH for that possibility. Actually there are two snow areas that will impact our TAF sites. The one moving northward into our TAFs as I write this is from a lead shortwave that will rotate north and east of this area by 06z. Once that happens the snow will diminish for a few hours. Toward 12z the snow from the main system will move in and will be heaviest in the afternoon for our I-94 and I-69 TAF sites. The HRRR time sections show 35 knots in the mix layer Wed afternoon in the snow area so I expect gusty northeast winds that will likely lead to some blowing snow. This could result in near zero visibilities at time so if you have to land at one of those TAF sites Wednesday afternoon I would be aware of that in your planning. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Winds will increase considerably into Wednesday as the storm system that approaches the area intensifies. Gales are possible as the mixing height increases Wednesday afternoon and evening and could tap into the 35 knot winds up around 925 mb. The winds will then slowly diminish during the day on Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 Several forecast points on the rivers are forecasted to see water levels approach action stage. The melting snow from the past few days is the main reason for the expected rises. With additional snow and colder weather forecasted...any additional runoff will be limited/delayed til the next warmup. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ058-059- 064>067-071>074. LM...Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight EST Wednesday night for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...MJS DISCUSSION...MJS AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...MJS MARINE...MJS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 A significant snowfall event has unfolded today in central Kansas, with impressive snowfall rates within bands of heavy snow. Reports of a foot or more of snow have been received from Lincoln County, and amounts of 6 inches or more have been received stretching from Ellsworth, McPherson, and Marion Counties. As the main upper low continues to dig south across southern Kansas, bands of snow will continue to slide into south central Kansas this afternoon and this evening. Further into southeast Kansas, rain will be the primary precipitation type before transitioning to snow and then exiting this evening. && .UPDATE... Issued at 611 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The forecast was updated to expire the winter storm warning and expand/extend the winter weather advisory for a couple more hours across cental and portions of south central/southeast KS as some moderate bursts of snow will linger through the early evening hours. By mid to late evening, conditions are expected to rapdily improve as the mid/upper trough moves away from the area. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Early afternoon radar imagery shows a swath of snow, ranging from light to heavy in intensity, stretching across much of central and a few south central Kansas counties at this time. The heaviest snow has been occurring within a band of very impressive lift within the -12C to -18C layer in conjunction with steep 700mb- 500mb lapse rates of roughly 7-8 degrees C per km. In southeast Kansas, warmer surface temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s have resulted in light rain or drizzle dominating the precipitation type. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, expecting that the broad area of precipitation will continue to track southward into south central Kansas. Temperatures have continued to cool throughout the past few hours, dropping into the low to mid-30s at various sites in south central Kansas. Therefore, expecting a transition to snow across south central Kansas this afternoon, including the Wichita metro. Models have struggled with snowfall accumulation amounts throughout this event, vastly under- estimating amounts within heavier bands while over-doing broad- brushed amounts in areas that have yet to receive any snow in south central Kansas. Fortunately, as the system rotates though, expecting a quicker- hitting round of precipitation so the much larger amounts that were received earlier this morning up in central Kansas appear unlikely in southern Kansas tonight. Based on a comparison of current radar with model omega, thickness, and relative humidity fields within the dendritic growth zone, it seems that the 12z GFS and the latest RAP seem to have the best handle area-wise. Based on latest data, still expecting around and inch or two at most south central KS locations, but amounts could be higher where any bands set up. Most models also continue to indicate that there will be an axis of decent lift for the rest of the afternoon into early evening somewhere in the vicinity of Butler, Elk, and Chautauqua Counties. Fortunately, temperatures are still much warmer in this location, so much of what falls here could be rain but with some snow mixed in later this evening. Will continue to hold on to the Winter Weather headlines as they are for now in collaboration with surrounding WFOs to account for one last small band of light snow currently in southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. A surface ridge will slide across the Southern Plains during the day tomorrow. Well-below normal temperatures look to continue for one more day, especially in areas that received larger snow totals today. However, looking ahead through the rest of the work week, a surface low will slide across northeast Kansas Thursday but the area should remain mostly, if not all, dry. Moderating temperatures appear likely, with highs recovering into the mid-to- upper 50s by Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 323 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The warming trend will continue into the weekend with temperatures climbing into the 60s. Some locations near the Kansas/Oklahoma border may even approach the 70 degree mark by Sunday. Our next shot at precipitation will come sometime early next week, though this appears to be mostly rain other than a brief chance of wintry mix in central Kansas during the overnight periods. Afternoon highs will remain in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Widespread MVFR/IFR were impacting the region early this evening as a vigorous trough deepens across the Central Plains. This trough is progged to lift rapidly ENE away from the area this evening allowing improving flight conditions after 03-05Z for much of the area. The exception may be much of eastern Kansas where MVFR cigs may linger through the night. A ridge of high pressure will bring decreasing winds and VFR to the region on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 24 38 24 50 / 70 0 0 0 Hutchinson 22 37 22 48 / 90 0 0 0 Newton 22 36 21 47 / 70 0 0 0 ElDorado 24 37 22 48 / 70 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 26 40 24 51 / 80 0 0 0 Russell 19 36 21 46 / 50 0 0 0 Great Bend 19 37 22 48 / 80 0 0 0 Salina 21 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0 McPherson 21 36 21 46 / 80 0 0 0 Coffeyville 28 39 23 51 / 70 10 0 0 Chanute 27 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0 Iola 26 37 22 48 / 60 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 27 38 23 50 / 70 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ067>070. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ032- 033-047>053. && $$ UPDATE...MWM SYNOPSIS...TAV SHORT TERM...TAV LONG TERM...TAV AVIATION...MWM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 A closed H5 low was located over NW Kansas in the vicinity of Colby this morning. This low was part of a trough which extended south into the Texas Panhandle. As of midday, WV imagery has the low roughly between Great Bend and Dodge City Kansas. Upstream of this feature, high amplitude ridging extended up the northwestern coast of the US into northern portions of British Columbia. East of the central CONUS low, broad southwesterly flow aloft extended from central Texas into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic states. At the surface, high pressure was located over eastern Montana. Low pressure was located over the upper Ohio Valley with a cold front extending south into the Florida Panhandle. A decent pressure gradient was located between the high and low and extended from eastern Colorado into the western Great Lakes. This decent pressure gradient has led to some gusty winds this afternoon. Winds as of 2 PM CT, gusted as high as 33 MPH at Imperial. Skies were mostly cloudy and light snow was occurring along and south of the Interstate. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 26 at Gordon, to 34 at O`Neill. && .UPDATE... Issued at 619 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 The winter weather advisory was allowed to expired with visibilites area-wide P6SM and snow no longer occurring, except for light flurries in extreme southwest NEB. Overall, the threat for accumulating snow has ended with improved visibilities area- wide. Blustery north winds continue with gusts up to 30 mph, however, these winds be diminishing early this evening. Some low- end drifting snow is possible this evening before winds lessen to 5-10 late this evening. Motorists should continue to seek the latest road conditions from Nebraska 511 given road conditions (partially covered with mixed snow, ice, or slush). && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 Inherited winter weather advisory remains in effect until midnight CST for all but the northeastern portion of the forecast area. Based on the latest HRRR soln and NAM12 soln, locations north of the Interstate should see and end in snowfall by 3 PM CST with the remainder of the forecast area being snow free around 6 PM CST. Winds will remain fairly gusty through this afternoon, decreasing quickly after 6 PM. This shows up in the Bufkit soundings for Imperial, which indicates decent mixing through 5 PM MT. That being said, feel comfortable keeping the southwest in an advisory through 6 PM CT (5 PM MT). A secondary, weak disturbance will track from western South Dakota into the forecast area tonight. This will spread some mid and high cloudiness to the forecast area. The expected cloudiness and northerly winds, will give a slight boost to temps tonight. Even with fresh snow cover, these two elements should temper the cooldown tonight and have opted for lows in the teens with some readings around 10 in the Pine Ridge. Skies will clear some on Wednesday with warmer temperatures forecast in the central and western forecast area. The warm up will be limited though by light winds and only weak mixing. H85 temps at 21z Wednesday, range from zero in the central Nebraska Panhandle, to -10c in the far northeast. Corresponding highs will range from around 30 in the far northeast, to near 40 in the far southwest. A clipper system will slide across the Dakotas Wednesday night, forcing a cold front into mainly northeastern Nebraska. Clouds in association with the clipper and embedded vort max will increase. Though the bulk of the forecast area will see no precipitation with this system, could not rule out some low precip chances in the Pine Ridge. This seems reasonable given the northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface, which could locally enhance precipitation in the Pine Ridge. That being said, introduced some low pops in the far NW for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 For the following 72 hours from Thursday night into Sunday afternoon a dry forecast is favored. For Thursday, some precipitation may develop across the northwest in advance of an approaching warm front. Behind the front, temperatures will trend upward for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday may reach 60 in the southwest and will be the warmest day of the period. A broad trough of low pressure aloft will build into the intermountain west Sunday. As this feature migrates east, it will force a cold front through the forecast area Sunday night. Mid level lift will overspread the front into Monday night with a chance for rain or snow. Right now this is a fairly low confidence forecast as the main trough dives south into northern Mexico. The belief is, QPF seems over forecast as there is a strong northern stream trough which traverses the Dakotas and southern Canada. This tends to favor a dry forecast on the high plains as the mid level flow is northwesterly or westerly. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 604 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 VFR conditions are expected across southwestern Nebraska for the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist across north central Nebraska through the night. Ceilings are expected to lift by sunrise with VFR conditions expected during the day Wednesday. Strong northwest winds will start to diminish across western and north central Nebraska tonight, then will switch to southwest Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ET SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Boatwright/Taylor
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
637 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 318 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020 Well, it`s February and we`re in Upper Michigan so we couldn`t expect the sunny skies to persist much longer than they did. This period signals the return to lake-effect -shsn as colder air gets pulled into the Great Lakes. A developing low pressure across the deformation axis in the Ohio River Valley will move into New England tonight, as colder air is drawn over Lake Superior behind it. More locally, outside of a few scattered flurries there isn`t much going on besides the increasing cloud coverage. Tonight, models suggest 850mb temps will fall as inversions begin to rise. The combination between the two will push the column into the DGZ as lake-effect -SHSN begins to pick up. Current RAP analysis shows current 850 temps near -10 to -11C. By 00Z tonight, models suggest these temps will fall closer to the -12 to -13C range. By 06Z, models begin to show temps in the -13 to -15C range, which is where I have begun to increase PoPs across the respective snow belts. Models show northerly winds veering more northeasterly tonight with some wavering between the models. Have increased PoPs on the periphery to account for some of this wavering. One issue with the lake-effect chances will be the slight shear in the wind profiles. High-res models show some disagreement with the wind profiles, but suggest sfc and 925mb winds to take on more of a NE component, while 850mb winds remain slightly more northerly. Don`t suggest this to cut off all LES, but could limit any potential significant bands from persisting. Snow ratios slowly increase from the mid teens early, towards 20:1 as sounding profiles trend further to the left and DGZ becomes saturated. 1 to 2 inches across the higher terrain of Marquette County and far west along the lake Superior shoreline seems reasonable with scattered amounts around an inch elsewhere through 12Z tomorrow. Models suggest wind profiles come together tomorrow as they slowly back from NE to NW through the day tomorrow for central and eastern UP. Winds across the west will retain a more northerly component as a passing high pressure through Canada maintains an influence. High- res models suggest the possibility of some dominant bands to form along the increased convergence as NE winds "collide" with the more northerly winds across western Lake Superior. From a thermodynamic standpoint, profiles will remain consistent with saturation through the DGZ and inversions between 4-5kft. Have included some of the high-res guidance wrt the convergent band chances, which gives the chance for for an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow for locations that get these dominant bands out west in the N to NE wind LES belts. Important to note that the higher snow totals will remain more localized and not a guarantee, so any headlines at this juncture seems premature. Outside of this convergent band, 1 to 2 inches seems like the more probable solution. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal in the low to mid 20s, with some upper 20s in the south-central. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 433 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020 Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail into next week with mid/upper level troughing through the central CONUS giving way to ridging by Sunday and southwest flow early next week as a trough moves into the west. After Cold conditions with northerly flow LES, temps will climb back above average by Sunday. Snow/rain chances are then expected early next week as moisture moves back into the region. Wednesday night, conditions will be favorable for at least moderate LES with 850 mb temps around -18C, moisture to 700 mb as the mid level trough approaches, and cyclonic northerly flow. SLR values at or above 20/1 with the DGZ in the convective layer, will support fluffy snow accumulations of a few/several inches for north wind favored locations in the west half. Thu, slowly backing winds to nnw will gradually shift the best low level conv and heavier bands into the east half. Surface ridging with low level dry air into western Lake Superior will limit any additional accumulations from IWD to CMX. Thu night into Fri, nw low level flow with continued deep moisture through 700 mb and 850 temps around -18C will bring potential for additional moderate to possibly heavy LES into the east half, especially if lake induced troughing and land breeze development result in stronger dominant bands. Sat-Sun, the LES will end by early Saturday as the sfc ridge move in and winds become offshore. WAA will boost temps into the upper 20s Sat with a decent amount of sunshine and into the mid 30s Sun. Mon-Tue, precipitation chances will increase by Monday as a sfc trough and a weak mid level northern stream trough approaches with increasing moisture advection. However, confidence is low with the timing and pcpn type given temps near or slightly above freezing and model differences. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 631 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020 As colder air continues to move over Lake Superior in a northerly flow, MVFR lake-effect cigs and light lake-effect snow showers will continue to develop and persist. MVFR vsbys are generally expected during -SHSN although IFR vsbys may develop Wed afternoon as snow showers could be enhanced by a mid-level trough moving in from the west. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 318 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2020 With a passing high pressure in Canada and a developing low pressure in Ohio River Valley, northerly winds will remain elevated with gusts approaching 30 knots at times through Wednesday morning. This low pressure deepens and moves up the New England coast on Thursday, bringing an increase in winds back across the eastern half of the lake from the N to NW...with gusts up to 30 knots again. The gradient relaxes on Friday as winds relax below 10 knots in the west and 25 knots in the east. High pressure dominates the weekend as winds look to remain light, below 20 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAW LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...Voss MARINE...JAW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
847 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2020 .UPDATE... FOR EVENING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... Sharp upper trough currently incoming, and is set to pass on Wed...along with a weak SFC boundary. LL moisture advection currently ongoing but moisture will really deepen after midnight, and remain that way through much of tomorrow. A few light showers already occurring but showers will increase later tonight, remaining fairly widespread on Wed, especially across the east. Realigned pops slightly, and made small adjustments down to overnight lows. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...A cold front is poised to move across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours, although there are very few echoes on radar now and the HRRR shows scant echoes during the evening and overnight period. Look for ceilings to lower behind the front, and will remain IFR/LIFR throughout most of the TAF period. A strong upper trough will enter the mid state by tomorrow afternoon, with light showers developing across the region throughout the day. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......07 AVIATION........08