Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/15/20

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
749 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 .UPDATE... Patchy fog being reported in the Clovis area during the last hour despite the high clouds. Broad area of mid 30s dewpoints will continue to be in place from the Pecos Valley south of Santa Rosa and east to the TX border with a se to south wind. HREF, HRRR and RAP13 suggest there will be low clouds that spread up the Pecos Valley later tonight, and patchy fog may expand. Therefore added patchy fog to the wx grids and beefed up cloud cover. Updated ZFP just transmitted. && .PREV DISCUSSION...443 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020... .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE West to northwest flow aloft. Sfc low over se CO at 23Z to shift sewd and into the TX panhandle by 15/15Z with a corresponding north to nely wind shift over ne and east central NM. Low clouds which lingered over portions of the Pecos Valley and through KROW have scattered out but short term guidance indicates MVFR cigs returning aft 15/09Z then dissipating by 15/17Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...236 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020... .SYNOPSIS... The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with daytime temperatures reaching above normal areawide by Sunday. Several locales in the eastern plains will reach into the low 70s Sunday, where breezy to windy conditions are expected. A strong cold front will push through late Monday into Tuesday, bringing temperatures back down below normal and keeping them there through the end of the work week. Moisture will increase over the state mid week and interact with a slow moving disturbance, bringing chances for precipitation back to the forecast. Some improvement is forecast by Friday as the disturbance moves out and temperatures rebound several degrees. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... A weak and flattening ridge will bring in some high clouds from the west through the overnight hours. A leeside trough over eastern Colorado will help to strengthen winds along and east of the central mountain chain through the evening hours. A weak backdoor cold front will drop into northeast New Mexico on Saturday, lowering temperatures by a few degrees. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue through the weekend. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... Sunday will be the warmest day this forecast cycle, with temperatures rising above normal areawide. This is especially true across the eastern plains, where highs will reach up into the upper 60s and lower 70s thanks to stronger downslope winds. The jet stream will slide south into the southern Rockies on Monday, bringing a much colder airmass with it going into Tuesday. Temperatures will dive below to well below normal behind the front and stay there through Thursday before moderating some on Friday. There is still plenty of forecast uncertainty with regard to the development of an upstream upper level trough/low and resulting precipitation across our area Wed/Thu. The other important and uncertain factor is a Pacific moisture tap, but the medium range model solution continue to trend away (further south) from direct impacts to our area. If the Pacific moisture tap aims a tad further north, we will be looking at the potential for freezing rain and/or sleet across much of the southeast plains with significant snow accumulation in the south central mountains. The 12Z medium range model solutions show an active troughing pattern across the western US for late next weekend and into the following week, so if the mid week event is a dud then we may be set up for more precipitation in the day 8-10 range. 31/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no critical fire weather concerns at this time. The weekend will be warm with mostly sunny skies, with the exception of temperatures lowered by a few degrees Saturday with a dry backdoor cold front across the northeast. Haines values drop from moderate-high to moderate values by Saturday. Humidity recoveries will be poor Saturday night into Sunday across the eastern plains, but minimum RH`s do not reach critical thresholds. Sunday will be the warmest day of the week, with up to 15 degrees above normal across the eastern plains. Ventilation rates will be good by Sunday, with breezy to locally windy conditions along and east of the central mountain chain. A weak system will clip the state on Monday, bringing light snowfall accumulations to the northern mountains. 31 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
914 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Conditions continue to improve across the southeastern part of the CWA as wind speeds diminish, therefore allowed the remaining portion of the Winter Weather Advisory to expire. No other changes made to the forecast at this time. UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 With diminishing wind speeds and improving conditions, have allowed the entire Wind Advisory and the Winter Weather Advisory in Roberts county to expire. Will keep with Winter Weather Advisory going for Grant and Deuel counties as wind speeds are expected to stay up there for a few more hours. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Gusty southerly winds continue impacting the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon with the highest winds occurring along the I-29 corridor. With the recent light snow, along with the strong winds, patchy to areas of blowing snow have been observed on webcams, especially in Summit and Brandt. Winds will slowly diminish from northwest to the southeast through this evening. Will maintain the current ending time for the wind advisory, and the winter weather advisory for Roberts. Based on the latest RAP half KM winds, will extend the winter weather advisory for Grant and Deuel Counties until 9 pm. A weak upper level trough will push across the region tonight, with increasing mid level clouds and a shift in the wind direction expected. 925 mb temps will be cooler on Saturday behind the trough, but favorable mixing winds should produce highs in the upper 20s to the upper 30s. High pressure sliding southeast across North Dakota and Minnesota Saturday night will bring cloudy skies, along with colder temperatures. Lows should drop into the single digits and low teens above zero. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 304 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 The long term period opens with a near zonal flow aloft. Weak energy moving through this pattern does introduce low chances for light snow Sunday night and Monday, although moisture and lift are lacking. The blended run tries to introduce a loss of ice crystals aloft for a brief period early Monday morning, however BUFKIT soundings are not in support of this. Left ptype a snow mention for now, but will have to monitor model trends. Early in the work week the upper level pattern transitions to meridional as a long wave trough works its way across the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains the dominate feature and cold air is expected to backdoor in Tuesday and again on Wednesday. 925 temperatures drop into the teens below zero celsius (maybe even into the 20s below zero depending on the model) by Tuesday afternoon. The cold air is short lived however as models show a broad upper level ridge and above normal temperatures setting up in the out periods. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening) Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Other than the potential for brief periods of MVFR vsbys due to blowing snow across the far eastern part of the are this evening, VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through the day Saturday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...Serr AVIATION...Parkin
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light lake effect snow showers and flurries will redevelop tonight east and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Any lake effect will end late tonight with clearing skies across the entire region. Temperatures will fall below zero over much of the area with readings colder than 10 below east of Lake Ontario. After a cold start on Saturday, a warming trend then develops Saturday afternoon through Sunday. A weak front may produce a few snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low pressure will then cross the Great Lakes Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures and mixed snow and rain changing to rain. Cold air will follow this system into Thursday bringing more lake effect snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Lake clouds remain congested over central Lake Erie early this evening. Hard to tell exactly what is going on underneath these clouds as the KCLE overshooting this activity. Will assume there is at least some light snow showers activity in this area. As the low level flow backs south-southwest later this evening, except to see a bit of an uptick to this activity. The lastest HRRR and NAMNest are not supportive of any activity of Lake Erie tonight, therefore confidence is low and will back off a bit from the previous forecast and only suggest a coating to perhaps an inch at best with the better chances of any lake effect activity focused more toward Grand Island and the Tonawandas, perhaps as far south of metro Buffalo. Better potential for snow with longer fetch and even colder air aloft will reside toward the east end of Lake Ontario. This band should develop later this evening as the land breeze off rapidly cooling land areas south of Lake Ontario enhances the convergence. Nighttime microphysics loop showing a nice band of lake clouds now enveloping eastern Wayne through much of Oswego county. Similar setup to Lake Erie in terms of inversion height and as all the lake convective layer is in the DGZ. Though not great, various short term models have bit better handle on potential for a lake band which adds confidence in seeing at least a few inches of fluffy snow especially late evening through most of the overnight toward far western shore of Oswego county, but mostly toward western shore of Jefferson county northward into the Thousand Island region. Isolated snow amounts over 4 inches will occur, but mainly expect 2- 4 inch type amounts from Watertown north to the St. Lawrence River valley. Otherwise, temperatures tonight should tank quickly this evening as any residual cloud cover will quickly dissolve. Went well under most guidance for the interior sections just away from the lakeshores. Continued to go for lows over interior North Country below 10 below. Winds should be light enough to restrict wind chill issues. With the developing sw winds aloft late tonight, could see temps rise slightly late. After a chilly start on Saturday, expect benign weather with mostly sunny skies most of the day and temps rebounding into the mid 20s east of Lake Ontario and near 30 elsewhere. Mid clouds increase late ahead of front that swings through here later Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A weakening upper level trough will cross the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday, with its trough axis over the WNY area on Sunday morning. Some snow showers will spread across the area as the trough axis tracks east across the WNY area. Chance POPs from early to late morning on Sunday for most for snow shower potential. As temperatures warm through the morning, rain will mix in with some of the remaining snow showers. The overall moisture content for the area is lacking, and most showers should be light. Snow accumulations on Sunday will be limited to a light coating for areas that do have snow showers. Temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid 20s to near 30for areas south of Lake Ontario, and in the upper teens to low 20s for the North Country. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to near 40, with temperatures in the low 30s across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. A weak cold front will drop southeast across the Eastern Great Lakes later Sunday. There will be a chance of snow showers across the area as the front passes Sunday night, but again, moisture available will be limited and any snow that does fall should be light and limited to a few tenths of an inch. Behind the passing cold front, an area of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and will center just north of Lake Ontario by Monday morning. Temperatures on Sunday night will be in the low to mid 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the upper teens for the North Country. With high pressure influencing the area on Monday, dry conditions area expected across the region for most of the day. An area of low pressure over the central Mississippi Valley will track toward the Central Great lakes Monday afternoon into the evening. This will result in chance POPs across the far western portion of the area by early Monday evening, and slowly expand eastward through the evening hours as a weak warm front associated with the area of low pressure pushes northward. Weak cold air advection from the earlier passing cold front will drop daytimes highs a few degrees from Sunday, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s south of Lake Ontario and in the the mid to upper 20s for the North Country. Monday night, the area of low pressure will track northeast across the Central Great Lakes and center near James Bay by around daybreak on Tuesday. As this area of low pressure tracks closer to the region, POPs will increase and expand eastward across the area. Likely POPs are expected across most of the area after Midnight. Most of the precipitation will start out as snow with temperatures still cool enough to support snow as the dominant p-type. The exception being far western NY where enough warm air advection may bring temps up just enough to mix rain in. The far southwestern portion of the area may only briefly be snow before changing over to rain completely, this as warm air advection occuring in this area a bit longer helps warm temps up a bit quicker. Snow fall through the daybreak timeframe will generally be around an inch. Temperatures Monday night will have an early low of the upper 20s to low 30s for areas from Buffalo to the Northern Finger Lakes with the low to mid 20s for the North Country. Areas across the far southwestern portion of the forecast area will only drop to the mid 30s. Temperatures will slowly warm through the night from west to east with warm air advection ahead of the approaching storm. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Potent upper level shortwave will support a strengthening area of surface low pressure that will be tracking to the northeast somewhere in the vicinity of the central Great Lakes as we open the period Tuesday morning. Expect precipitation to be ongoing area wide. Precip type will be a mix of rain and snow south of Lake Ontario, with mainly snow across the North Country to start the day. However, deep southerly flow will be pumping in warmer air across Western and North Central NY, which will quickly change any mix over to rain Tuesday morning south of Lake Ontario, with the changeover to rain across the North Country occurring during the early to mid afternoon as high temperatures climb into the low and mid 40s across the majority of our forecast area, with upper 30s found across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. In addition, potential for strong winds is something that often has to be considered with storms (especially deepening low pressure systems) that track northeastward off to our west across the central Great Lakes into Ontario. This area of low pressure will only be slowly strengthening as it passes by to our west, however it does not look that strong at this time. To add, the strongest winds (~55 to 60kt) are located in the warm sector ahead of the cold front which will make it difficult for the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. That said, this will be monitored going forward. Main upper trough axis and attendant surface cold front will push across the forecast area sometime Tuesday night. This will usher in another shot of much colder air, changing any lingering precipitation over to snow. Some accumulation will be possible with the remaining synoptic moisture lagging on the back side of the low, transitioning to upslope and lake-driven snows as 850mb temps drop to the minus teens C for the second half of the night. It will be much colder Tuesday night as lows drop into the single digits across the North Country, with teens elsewhere. An upper level shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday bringing the chance of snow showers to much of the area, with some northwest flow lake effect snow showers possible southeast of the lakes. This will generally be the case Wednesday night through Thursday also as spokes of shortwave energy traverse the area and boundary layer flow remains generally out of the northwest. Expect only localized minor snow accumulations due to the overall lack of moisture. A strong area of sprawling high pressure will build across the upper and mid Mississippi Valley Thursday night into Friday. The influence of this large high will be felt across just about the entire eastern half of the CONUS. This should provide dry conditions for the end of the work week. Expect below average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, before moderating back to near normal seasonal levels by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will return VFR flight conditions to the TAF region for the majority of the remainder of the TAF cycle. The exception will be northeast of both lakes later this evening and early overnight closer to Lake Erie (BUF and IAG) and later tonight closer KART to Lake Ontario (ART). For all these locations, at least a few hours of MVFR ceilings and flurries of snow will be possible. If a band of snow can persist at all, could see at least some IFR vsby, though vsby this low should be pretty transient. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Possible LLWS Saturday night. Sunday...VFR to MVFR in scattered snow showers. Monday...Mainly VFR. Monday night...MVFR/IFR within snow. Tuesday...MVFR with snow becoming plain rain. Rain changes back to snow Tuesday night. Wednesday...MVFR with lake effect snow showers. && .MARINE... Northwest flow will continue to weaken as high pressure drifts across the region. The surface high will move off the east coast Saturday. SSW winds will increase in the wake of the departing high Saturday, although the wind direction will keep the bulk of the higher waves in Canadian waters. Southwest winds will increase further Saturday night and Sunday as a weak front crosses the eastern Great Lakes, bringing another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLA/TMA NEAR TERM...JLA/TMA SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JLA/TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA