Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/11/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
631 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds across the region overnight into
Tuesday morning. Low pressure will then track well south of the
region Tuesday afternoon and then exits to the east Tuesday
evening, followed by high pressure building over the area
through Wednesday. Another Low pressure approaches from the
southwest Wednesday night, then tracks south of Maine on
Thursday. An arctic front pushes through later on Thursday
followed by Canadian high pressure building in through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
620 PM Update..Sfc trof or weak cold front sliding sewd this
evening. Some partial clearing was noted on the latest satl
imagery across the northern and western areas, w/more clouds
further s and e. Hrly temps were adjusted to match the latest
conditons showing a cooldown w/dewpoints dropping off as well,
especially across the northern and western areas. The RAP
soundings show potential for some drizzle/freezing drizzle this
evening w/moisture in the llvls and drying aloft. Decided to
carry this wording for portions of the area. MLT had some light
freezing drizzle/or fine light snow. Houlton was showing this as
well in their latest ob. Radar imagery showed light returns
sliding across N Penobscot, SE Aroostook and N Washington
Counties. As the airmass above 900 mbs begins to dry out later
this evening and light winds, sounding data does show potential
for fog given the llvl moisture trapped under an inversion at
about 8000-900 ft. Temps dropping below 32F could lead to
freezing fog potential. Will take a look at this further w/the
next update later in the evening.
Previous Discussion...
Latest radar ref imagery conts to show diminishing returns of
sn and rn shwrs late this aftn. Kept mention of patchy dz across
the E Cntrl and Downeast areas where temps are abv frzg for the
next 3 hrs, but further N, sfc dwpt dprsns greater than 5 deg F
and cld clgs greater than 5 kft are preventing much in the way
of patchy fzdz, so we dropped this wx element.
Otherwise, we xpct cld cvr to break somewhat ovrngt. The question is
how much drying will reach llvls by late tngt. If not enough,
there could be patchy to perhaps areas of frzg fog where skies
become clear long enough. But not enough confidence attm to
mention fog in tngts ptn of the fcst. Low temps will be mild for
this tm of season with only lmtd potential of lower temps in
normally colder vly lctns.
Otherwise, skies will begin ptly cldy Tue morn then become cldy Tue
aftn as a weak wv of sfc low pres tracks ewrd off the mid Atlc
states well S of the Gulf of ME. Lgt precip with this system will be
msly restricted to the SE third of the FA and with hi temps xpctd to
be abv frzg here, precip type could be a mix of lgt rn and sn
in the mid to late aftn before transitioning to sct sn shwrs Tue
eve, so there will be little sn accumulation potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
700-500 hPa shortwaves should support some lingering rain/snow
showers over Downeast Maine Tuesday evening. The main northern
stream trough axis crosses the area late Tuesday night. Areas
along the western border with Canada could see a few snow
showers, other than that, maybe some flurries with its passage
(not quite confident enough in flurries to reflect in the
official forecast at this time). Lows Tuesday night should be
around 15 degrees above normal.
Northern stream ridging passes over the area on Wednesday,
followed by deep layered ridging Wednesday evening. This should
keep things dry through at least midnight Wednesday night. Highs
on Wednesday should be around 5-10 degrees above normal.
There is some question how quickly moisture moves in on the
backside of the ridge late Wednesday night ahead of low
pressure moving into the mid-Atlantic States. For now limit pops
to chance late, and even this might be too aggressive. Lows
Wednesday night should be around 15 degrees above normal.
A northern stream shortwave passing over New England Thursday
should keep coastal low development offshore. Depending on the
exact low track and strength, this will determine how far from
the coast any mix of rain in with snow will get. For now it
appears that it should stay all snow north of a Bangor-Calais
line. The heaviest precipitation for now appears it will be
along/south of a Bangor/Calais line, so the ultimate mix of
rain/snow will determine whether any headlines (most likely
advisory) are needed across Bangor/Downeast Maine. Snow amounts
likely will stay below advisory level north of this region.
Highs on Thursday should be a few degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow tapers off Thursday evening as Arctic air pours into the
region behind an arctic front. Should see some some snow showers
with its passage. A northern stream trough passes on Friday,
but with low levels dry, it should pass through with no
precipitation.
It will be cold and blustery late Thursday night and Friday.
Could end up needing a Wind Chill Advisory across most, if not
all of the North late Thursday night/Friday morning.
Deep layered ridging builds in Friday night and Saturday, with
dry weather continuing. The winds should die off Friday night
allowing for strong radiational cooling. Lows should be below
zero across Northern and Eastern Maine,except maybe right at the
immediate coast, with lows across the North generally in the -10
to -20 degree range. A Wind Chill Advisory could be needed for
all but the Bangor region/Downeast Maine Friday night/early
Saturday morning. Saturday will see a little bit of moderation
from Friday, but not quite as cold and with little wind.
The models then differ in the handling of northern stream energy
early next week, so there is a variety of in the timing of a
northern stream trough which should spark some snow showers with
its passage.
Temperatures recover to near to above normal levels for Sunday
and Monday (lows more above normal than the highs).
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tngt - Tue...Mainly MVFR clgs all TAF sites, but
cannot rule pockets of VFR or IFR attms with llvls of the atmos
remaining moist. Vsbys reduced late this aftn at some lctns in
trailing sn or rn shwrs and again later Tue aftn in lgt rn and sn.
Lgt winds.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday night: Lingering MVFR/IFR in any snow
showers, becoming VFR late. NW winds G20-30KT possible after
midnight.
Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR, then MVFR or lower possible late
in any snow. W-SW winds G15-25KT possible.
Thursday: IFR or lower possible in snow north and snow possibly
mixed with rain south.
Thursday night-Saturday: VFR. N-NW winds G20-30KT possible
Thursday night-Friday evening.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA conditions will cont into this eve, ending
first ovr the inner bay/harbor waters late this eve, then ovr the
outer waters erly Tue morn. Kept close to blended wv guidance for
fcst wv hts.
SHORT TERM: Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are
possible on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday night-Thursday. On
the intra-coastal waters marginal SCA conditions are possible
Tuesday-night-Wednesday with sub SCA conditons forecast
Wednesday night-Thursday.
Gales are possible on all waters Thursday night into Friday
evening due to strong low level cold air advection. This threat
will be highlighted in the HWO.
Sub-SCA conditions should return to all waters during the day
on Saturday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Hewitt/VJN
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Hewitt/VJN/Maloit
Marine...Hewitt/VJN/Maloit
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.
AVIATION...
Shower activity continues to decrease across most of the area this
afternoon. The exception being well east of the I-35 corridor where
some convection is developing along the cold front. Otherwise, we
should see MVFR cigs along I-35 through this evening, with cigs
dropping into IFR 07-09Z. Rain chances will be favored tomorrow after
daybreak and we will keep -SHRA in the forecast through the remainder
of the current forecast period. Once rain develops, cigs will likely
not budge through tomorrow afternoon and will keep low end IFR or
LIFR in the forecast. At DRT, VFR skies will likely continue this
evening, then low clouds thicken and MVFR cigs return around 15Z.
Rain chances will also pick up tomorrow at DRT, with the afternoon
standing the best chance for shower activity.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms continue today as a slow moving
cold front moves across the area. Storms are possible behind the
front. As the warmer air moves over the stable cooler airmass at the
surface, the storms will be elevated and have a low potential to be
severe with the main threat being hail. Later tonight, the front
reaches the coast and stalls. After a brief lull in activity tonight,
the stalled front will continue the unsettled pattern as a low
approaches from the west. Enhanced shower activity through Tuesday
night will continue where areas could see pockets of locally heavy
rain that may impact nighttime commutes or activities.
For temperatures, with cooler air in place tonight, lows will be in
the 40s and 50s. Tuesday, rain and cloud cover will reduce the
diurnal effect and highs for the day will be just a few degrees
warmer in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Similar expectations for
Tuesday night as the area stays in the 40s.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
At the beginning of the long-term forecast, the frontal boundary will
be pushing into our eastern counties. While the bulk of the rainfall
will be along the boundary, some residual post-frontal precip will
remain possible for mainly the eastern half through the morning
hours. Rainfall totals through Wednesday will average less than an
inch in the west to 1-3 inches in the northern CWA. Some minor
flooding of low-lying areas will be possible through the event.
Clearing conditions are then expected for the afternoon with the sun
most likely shining by sunset for the areas along and west of the
I35 corridor. North winds are then expected behind the front
Wednesday night with lows in the 30s and 40s. Cooler weather will
continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s under
mostly clear skies.
Moisture is expected to increase once again for the weekend as
south/southwesterly flow increases ahead of the next upper trough
axis. This will bring low rain chances to the area Saturday through
Monday as most of the activity will be driven by warm air advection
underneath an inversion. Therefore will keep thunder out of the
forecast. Not expecting a washout for everyone each day, but off and
on activity will be possible. Temperatures for the weekend and Monday
will be back in the 60s and 70s for highs with lows mainly in the
50s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 44 49 46 59 40 / 50 90 100 70 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 44 50 44 60 39 / 50 90 100 80 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 51 46 62 40 / 50 80 100 70 10
Burnet Muni Airport 40 46 41 55 36 / 60 90 100 70 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 51 55 45 67 40 / 40 60 90 20 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 41 47 43 57 38 / 50 90 100 80 10
Hondo Muni Airport 50 53 46 65 40 / 50 70 90 40 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 45 50 45 62 39 / 50 80 100 70 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 47 54 48 61 41 / 40 90 100 90 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 47 52 48 63 42 / 60 80 90 60 10
Stinson Muni Airport 49 52 48 64 43 / 50 70 90 60 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...KCW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
910 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020
Seeing some light returns moving in from western KY/southern IL...in
a zone where latest RAP upper level charts show a couple jet
structure providing the enhanced lift. Still expecting the southern
jet to move to our north and northeast by daybreak Tuesday,
providing support for a solid batch of rain by then. Have adjusted
pops and rest of weather grids towards models that are handling the
current picture the best, the HRRR/LAV/GLAMP/CONSShort. Updated
products out shortly.
Issued at 630 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020
Most of the rains have exited to the east/south of the region, but
we still are left with pockets of drizzle and light fog according to
area observations. We should see some resurgence of light rain
chances late tonight, especially across southern KY. This rain will
form as our area briefly is in the right rear quadrant of a
departing jet streak. We could see another quarter inch to three
quarters of an inch over our Lake Cumberland counties by mid morning
Tuesday. Will shoot out updated products shortly with adjustments
for latest trends and hi-res model guidance.
&&
.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
Surface analysis reveals a cold front south of the Ohio River this
afternoon. Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the 40s
and upper 30s, while temperatures ahead of the front are in the 50s.
This front will slowly sink southward through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours, and eventually push into Tennessee by
tomorrow morning.
Rain showers will taper off some over the next few hours, but
another wave of rain looks to impact mainly southern and eastern KY
late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Area creeks, streams, and
rivers will see some rises from all of the rain given the saturated
soils. Wouldn`t be surprised to get isolated reports of roads along
low water crossings having some standing water. All rain should push
east of the region by tomorrow afternoon and give way to a brief
reprieve from the wet weather.
.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
The long term period will start with an upper level trough pushing
eastward towards the OH Valley. Ahead of the trough, southerly 850
mb flow will begin to pump rich moisture into the area. At the
surface, an area of low pressure will develop near the ArkLaTex
region and move northeastward through the lower MS Valley and into
the OH Valley by Wednesday night. Rain will begin to spread
northeast across the area throughout the day Wednesday under a broad
area of isentropic lift. Rainfall will increase in intensity
throughout the afternoon and into Wednesday evening as a 50-60+ kt
LLJ moves through the region with a zone of stronger isentropic lift
pushing north towards the OH River. By Wednesday night, the surface
low will cross central KY and drag a cold front across the area,
with a band of heavier rain pushing eastward across S. IN and KY.
Precipitation will begin to exit Thursday morning as the surface low
quickly pushes off to the northeast.
Overall, expect 1-2 inches of rainfall to fall across the area, with
locally higher amounts possible. Uncertainty still exists as to
where the heaviest axis of rain will be, but it currently looks to
be somewhere across south-central KY. However, the 00Z and 12Z model
guidance today has started trending the heavier rain axis more to
the northwest. With the heavy rainfall possible Wednesday over
already saturated soils, widespread flood issues may arise with this
system, especially over eastern KY, where current Flash Flood
Guidance shows the lowest values. After collaborating with
neighboring offices, have decided to hold off on issuing a Flood
Watch as we wait to see where the heaviest axis of precipitation may
set up. Will continue to message potential impacts in the ESF and
HWO.
For the end of the week and into the weekend, expect mostly dry
weather as a surface high slides in from the northwest and an upper
level ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures will be much colder by
Friday under northerly winds, with morning lows in the mid teens to
low 20s and afternoon highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temps will
then rebound Saturday as the area of high pressure pushes off to the
east and southerly flow returns at the surface, warming temps into
the mid to upper 40s. By Sunday, models continue to show significant
differences with some models indicating a large swath of precip
moving across the region while other models keep us dry until
Monday. Will continue to monitor evolution in future forecasts.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
Still dealing with a slow-moving cold front, and its associated
drizzle/light rain/low cigs. Conditions should improve slowly over
SDF/HNB, likely getting to fuel alternate MVFR before daybreak at
SDF, and sooner for HNB. LEX and BWG will take a little longer,
being closer to that front, but expect MVFR if not VFR by early
afternoon...as that front does push far enough southeast of the
region and take that low-level moisture with it.
&&
.Hydrology...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
Rounds of rain throughout the week will result in flooding for mid
to late week. Rains look to saturate the area today and tonight
with flooding most likely with a second round of rainfall Wed-Thu.
Both areal and flash flooding will be possible with mid week rains.
See the long term discussion for more details on rainfall amounts
and areal/flash flooding potential.
Widespread minor river flooding is likely late this week as rains
fall on streams with water levels already running above normal.
Minor river flooding is expected on the Ohio River at Tell City and
Cannelton by Thu/Fri and also possible at McAlpine Upper, McAlpine
Lower, and Clifty Creek by the weekend. Other rivers at risk for
minor flooding by late week include the Green, Barren, Rolling Fork,
Kentucky, and Licking Rivers.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Update...RJS
Short Term...DM
Long Term...JML
Aviation...RJS
Hydrology...AMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
858 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2020
.DISCUSSION...Was going to try to lower the pops a bit following
the departure of today`s main wave, due to some model indication
of a break in the action. However, the ruc and hrrr are hinting at
some re-development which can be seen across Southeast Tennessee
along with another eastward expanding area on the Cumberland
Plateau. While the rain may be very light, it could still create a
few hundredths of an inch in area rain gauges. Therefore, will
stay the course and not micro-manage the pop, so to speak.
Rainfall amounts as expected early on in the event were higher
across the south with areas picking up around 1-2 inches with the
day`s rainfall. Areas farther north and east on the northern
portion of the Cumberland Plateau and the valley from around
Knoxville through the Tri- Cities, picked up amounts varying from
around half an inch to close to one inch of rainfall. Models
continue to advertise the next main wave of precipitation which
satellite and radar imagery currently depict building east
northeast through the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the forecast
area. This secondary area of widespread moderate to sometimes
heavy rain will move into the Southern Appalachian region later
tonight into Tuesday morning with exit around midday into the
afternoon. Thus, will stay the course with the flash flood watch
while maintaining the wind advisory for the higher terrain along
the North Carolina border for the remainder of the night. Noticed
that wind speed was holding nice and steady in the mid to upper 20
kt range with some gusts in the upper 30s to around 40 kts at mid
evening. There won`t be much movement in the temperature scheme
tonight in the moist environment present across the region.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke
Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest
Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Greene-Southeast Monroe.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for Lee.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
106 PM MST Mon Feb 10 2020
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. We will remain in
northwest flow through midweek. Today`s storm continues to push
south, taking the snowfall with it. We should be dry by mid
evening. The question is will we see any fog or stratus.
Confidence is lower than normal, but we are expecting some patchy
fog and low clouds. We placed it in the forecast from Pocatello
northward across the Plain and into the Island Park area. With
the quick snow we had and melting, it is possible we could see it
across some other valleys in the eastern and southeast highlands.
We will definitely be watching to see what develops tonight.
For Wednesday and Thursday, some moisture streams around the ridge
and into eastern Idaho. There will be a limited chance of light
snow from Island Park south across the eastern/southeast
highlands. We are also expecting some light snow tomorrow across
the higher elevations of the South Hills and Albion Mountains. The
potential for valley fog and stratus increases as well. It does
appear some of the light snow across the Upper Plain and Island
Park may indeed be "seeder feeder" snow under the stratus deck. We
should see temperatures warming a bit, with getting above freezing
along and south of the 84/86 corridor. By late Thursday afternoon,
the overall chance of precipitation increases across the mountains
ahead of the next low. Keyes
.LONG TERM...Thursday Night through next Monday. The next low
drops south into Idaho Thursday night and Friday. We are expecting
snow for the most, although temperatures will likely be warm
enough for a mix across portions of the Magic Valley, Lower Snake
Plain, and southern highlands valleys. It does appear to be mostly
an event for the mountains in terms of appreciable snowfall. Winds
do pick up a bit so some blowing and drifting is expected in the
mountains. For the start of next week, it appears the "train" is
back on the tracks for more continuous snowfall across the
mountains in west to southwest flow. The low coming in for Sunday
looks to potentially be a very wet storm, including possible rain
and measurable snow at lower elevations. Winds really pick up as
well, so it will be interesting to see if the snow is wet enough
to mitigate blowing and drifting in the mountains. Keyes
&&
.AVIATION...While we are still struggling with some low post-snow clouds at
KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ early this afternoon, we expect these to break
up and lift rather progressively over the next couple hours, leaving
skies mostly clear for the major terminals as high pressure builds
across the region. It`s hard to completely rule out some low stratus
development in the Snake Plain late tonight/Tues AM (and light winds
might favor stratus or even fog too), but the general consensus of
NAM time-height plots, MOS guidance, and the 12z and 14z HRRR
cig/vsby products all lean dry enough at the low levels to preclude
issues. For now, have leaned into a SCT009 at KIDA, but otherwise
VFR conditions are currently expected everywhere. - KSmith
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
831 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020
.UPDATE...
Minor update to drop overnight low temperatures to account for
observations and diurnal trends. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/
AVIATION...
Miserable flying conditions across the Four-States region over the
next 24 hours. The majority of sites will fluctuate between IFR
and LIFR, except for KLFK and KMLU which are MVFR now, but will drop
into IFR past 11/03z. Both ceiling and visibility will be
hindered by the curtains of precipitation expected over the course
of the next two days. As such, SHRA, TSRA, VCTS, and even +SHRA
are being carried at all sites over the next 24 hours. In the
event a site does sneak into a higher flight category, that
activity will be very temporary, as weather conditions and
ceilings will fluctuate greatly during this TAF period. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/
The afternoon sfc analysis indicates hasn`t moved much farther SE
than what was depicted this morning, and now extends from a DKR,
to OCH, to just W of a SHV, to just N of an ELD and S of a LLQ
line as of 2130Z. Much of the ongoing convection has now shifted
just N of the front this afternoon, with the heavy rainfall threat
easing somewhat but not before widespread 1-3+ inches of rain has
been observed across portions of Lower E TX, N LA, and extreme Srn
AR across the existing Flash Flood Watch area, where quite a few
reports of flooding have been observed. However, the warm sector S
of the front has destabilized considerably, with 1500-2000 J/Kg
of SBCape observed from the Lower Toledo Bend Country across the
Srn sections of Ncntrl LA. Already seeing scattered convection
developing and spreading NNE into Cntrl LA attm, with the short
term progs and latest HRRR depicting a weak sfc wave developing
along the frontal zone early this evening which will ride the
front NE across N LA. This could focus at least an isolated severe
threat given the existing instability and ample bulk shear of
60-70kts, and could also focus a localized heavy rain/flood threat
as well. Did not mention the severe threat in the forecast given
the low confidence in organized large scale forcing and
diminishing instability this evening, with the front expected to
begin drifting back S late tonight, exiting the region into Cntrl
LA by daybreak Tuesday. However, the progs do indicate that strong
overrunning will commence this evening atop this cool/shallow air
mass, with the heavy rain threat diminishing by or shortly after
midnight near the H925-850 trough as it drifts ESE into Lower E
TX/N LA.
The progs indicate additional areas of -SHRA developing along/N of
the H850 trough late tonight over Cntrl and N TX, which will
advance E across much of the region during the day Tuesday. Have
again increased pops to high end categorical, but fortunately,
rain rates should not be high enough to warrant a significant
flood threat despite the already saturated grounds across much of
E TX/SW AR/N LA. Thus, have left the Flash Flood Watch area as is
for now, although the flood threat should begin to increase
farther N Tuesday night across NE TX/SW AR as overrunning again
increases ahead of a strong shortwave trough that will exit the
Srn Rockies Tuesday night before entering the Srn Plains
Wednesday. Given the 1-2 inch rains that fell across a large part
of NE TX/SW AR N of the existing Flash Flood Watch last
night/early this morning, later shifts will likely need to expand
the Watch farther N to include the remainder of NE TX and much of
SW AR for Tuesday night and Wednesday, as rain rates will increase
ahead of the trough. Still expecting additional rainfall amounts
of 1-3 inches with isolated 5 inch totals over the region, before
the convection diminishes from W to E during the day Wednesday.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 52 54 47 55 / 100 100 100 100
MLU 52 54 47 67 / 100 100 100 100
DEQ 44 47 41 49 / 80 90 100 100
TXK 47 49 43 49 / 100 100 100 100
ELD 47 49 43 51 / 100 100 100 100
TYR 46 50 46 53 / 80 100 100 100
GGG 48 52 46 54 / 90 100 100 100
LFK 54 57 52 62 / 80 80 90 100
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ARZ072-073.
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ125-126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15/44