Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/10/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
547 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
While there may still be a bit of light snow remaining over
portions of Adams County, observations from the central part of
Wisconsin indicate little in the way of visibility reductions
remain. This implies that any remaining snow is very light and
would cause any new or additional impacts. Plan to let the winter
storm warning expire at 6 pm as scheduled.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
At 3 PM, the low pressure area responsible for the 8 to 11" snow
band along the Interstate 90 corridor today was located east of
the Wisconsin Dells. The highest snow total (10.5") so far was in
Elba, MN (Winona County). Other than a few snow bands across
western Wisconsin much of the accumulating snow has moved out of
the area. At this time, any snow accumulations (up to 1") look to
be confined to Adams and Juneau counties in central Wisconsin. Due
to this snow, kept the Winter Storm Warning going for these
counties. Elsewhere, the winter headlines were cancelled or
expired at 3 PM. With there being a few reports of a light wintry
mix and the models showing that the lift would be rapidly
weakening this afternoon, opted to mention some patchy freezing
drizzle in a Special Weather Statement which is in effect until
6 PM tonight.
For tonight, skies will gradually this evening. The combination of
clearing skies and light winds may result in the development of
areas of fog overnight. This was included in the TAFS between
10.09z and 10.15z. Low temperatures tonight will be in the single
digits below and above zero.
On Monday afternoon, the clouds will gradually increase as a
Canadian cold front approaches the area from northern and western
Minnesota. High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
On Monday night, scattered flurries will be possible as a cold
front moves through the region.
From Wednesday into Wednesday night, an arctic cold front will
move southeast through the region. With their being limited
moisture ahead of this front, snow amounts look to be generally
less than inch. However, there are a few GEFS members which have
snow totals of 1 to 2 inches. Behind this front, much colder
temperatures move into the region. High temperatures on Thursday
will be in the single digits and in the teens on Friday. Low
temperatures on Friday morning will range from 10 to 20 below. A
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for this time period.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
Local radar and observations indicate the remaining light snow has
moved well east of both airports. The clouds lingering behind the
snow have kept MVFR ceilings in place but satellite trends show
these are moving to the east with both airports expected to
scatter out and go VFR this evening. The main concern for the
overnight hours is whether any fog is going to develop as an area
of high pressure builds into the region. Forecast soundings are
not much help this evening as they show the low levels remaining
saturated all night long following the fresh snow. The 09.21Z RAP
would suggest there will be around 5 knots at the surface with 10
knots or more just above the surface through the night. Some
guidance is suggesting dense fog forming overnight but with the
forecast winds, this seems unlikely and for now, have stayed with
the idea that if fog develops only taking the visibility down to
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2020
A dry surface ridge over the region will move off the coast
Monday. As the high moves offshore moisture will again begin
increasing as southerly flow overspreads the region ahead of the
next frontal system. The front and associated high moisture are
forecast to be in the region Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will dominate the region overnight with high
clouds crossing the region. Some potential for fog toward
daybreak as moisture begins increasing however expect fog which
develops to be patchy and mainly confined to fog prone areas.
Winds have become light and variable and will remain so
overnight resulting in temperatures falling into the upper 30s
to low 40s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will provide The Midlands and CSRA with a dry and warm
Monday. A frontal boundary moves into the region on Monday Night
through Tuesday with periods of showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. This boundary should lift a bit northward on
Wednesday for somewhat drier conditions. It will be warm with
highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows around 60.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper trough pushes a frontal boundary through The Midlands and
CSRA Thursday through Thursday Night with showers and thunderstorms.
Will need to watch for the severe weather potential with the
passage of this system. Canadian high pressure builds into the
region Friday through Saturday with dry weather and much cooler
temperatures. Models differ next Sunday with the GFS 24 to 36
hours faster with the next upper trough than the ECMWF. The
consensus model blend results in a chance of showers.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period
although there is a possibility of fog/stratus during the
predawn hours into mid morning.
Surface high pressure centered offshore is ridging into the
Carolinas this evening. Satellite imagery shows high clouds
extending back to the southern Plains traversing the forecast
area and this is expected to continue through the night and
Monday. Model guidance suggests a 20-25 knot low level jet
overnight which should be enough to keep some mixing in the
boundary layer and this may favor more stratus than fog but
confidence is limited. MAV/LAMP and HRRR generally not showing
any restrictions but the NAM is showing LIFR restrictions all
terminals, similar to last night. Will continue with a
persistence forecast of VFR with tempo MVFR vsbys 09z-13z time
frame. Winds will pick up from the southwest by late morning to
around 8 to 10 knots with some gusts to 15-17 knots in the
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A series of weather systems will
provide a chance of showers and associated restrictions at times
Monday night/Tuesday and again Thursday.
Runoff from the recent heavy rainfall event is resulting in
moderate to major flooding on all area river forecast points.
Please stay abreast of the latest river stage forecasts on our
webpage at weather.gov/cae.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
854 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
Issued at 854 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
Temps are overachieving along the Borderland and have surpassed
prior forecasted min temps. Have dropped them a few more degrees.
Once the southwest flow develops and affects this area, temps
should stabilize, and possibly rise later. Added fog to Price
County as its has covered much of the county.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
An area of low pressure centered well south of the Northland will
continue to move east and high pressure will build in behind it.
Dry conditions are expected for most areas tonight but there are
some questions on cloud cover and most areas have cleared out this
afternoon. We increased clouds later tonight, especially over the
western half of the Northland. The RAP and NAM both show low
level RH values increasing tonight, especially in the 900-925MB
layer. There were areas of stratus over western Minnesota and
eastern North Dakota and we expect that will fill back in and
expand to the east as low level winds back tonight. Confidence in
how widespread clouds will be tonight is lower than average and
cloud coverage will have a big affect on temperatures. We have
lows from the single digits above to the single digits below for
now but if skies remain cloud free longer than expected tonight,
they will likely not be low enough.
A shortwave will arrive on Monday and move through the Northland
into Monday night. We expect light snow to become likely for much of
northern Minnesota with a chance further south or flurries. Snow
amounts are expected to be light with most areas receiving less than
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
The extended will feature a couple opportunities for light snow with
an arctic front coming through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Tuesday will be a dry day with temperatures in the twenties thanks to
weak low level ridging. However, a strong cold front will move
through the Northland Tuesday night into Wednesday ushering in much
colder air and bringing a chance for light snow. The GFS remains a
bit faster than the ECMWF with the front but the models are in
pretty good agreement. Light snow will spread north to south Tuesday
night into Wednesday with mainly light accumulations expected. There
will be a period Wednesday as winds become northerly that some
heavier snow will occur along the South Shore but drier air quickly
moves over the lake by late afternoon/early evening. Most areas will
see a dusting to perhaps 2 inches with the frontal passage.
High pressure will build into the region Wednesday night into
Thursday bringing an end to light snow chances. Temperatures will be
cold enough and winds high enough to produce wind chills of 25 to 35
below zero Wednesday night over much of central to northern
Minnesota and Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed. Highs
Thursday will only recover to 2 below zero to the single digits
Another couple of shortwaves will bring light snow chances back to
the region Friday into the weekend. Snow amounts should be light
with some possible lake enhancement along the North Shore on Friday.
Temperatures will also gradually warm late week reaching the upper
teens to mid twenties over the weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
VFR at the outset with high pressure nearby. As the high drifts
off to the southeast tonight, a southwesterly flow will develop
and IFR clouds will form and spread across the terminals after
06Z. A cold front will affect the terminals after 18Z with the
wind turning to the northwest and some light snow developing. Some
vbsy restrictions into the MVFR range are expected near INL. On
either side of the front, gusty winds will affect the terminals
through the end of the forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 4 25 14 24 / 0 60 60 0
INL -11 28 10 24 / 10 80 60 0
BRD 4 27 13 25 / 0 40 30 0
HYR -5 29 15 27 / 0 10 20 0
ASX 2 30 17 27 / 0 20 40 0
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
705 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
The overall environmental setup has remained relatively unchanged
from previous forecasts, as outlined in the earlier short term
discussion included below. However, a couple of subtleties appear
to be working against more widespread convective development than
what`s currently observed as of 630pm. There are still two main
areas of concern, one being the area of strong warm advection
near/east of I-35 that has supported a broad area of shallow
showery activity, and the second being the cold front arriving
from the northwest. Both areas will be monitored for robust
convection through the next ~8 hours or so, although our window of
diurnal destabilization aiding in surface-based convection has
begun to close.
First Area - Prefrontal warm advection activity:
Shallow convection beneath a weak capping inversion sampled by
the 20z and 00z FWD soundings continues near and east of I-35 this
evening. This area was socked in with clouds and light rain all
afternoon, and diurnal destabilization suffered as a result. While
ascent via warm advection has been strong, warm advection`s
effect on the cap appears to have won out thus far, with an
inversion still present around 725mb. Low-level lapse rates have
remained marginal as a result, and a lack of buoyancy through the
lowest 3 km is likely impeding parcel ascent. It appears less
likely that much in the way of deep convection will be able to
develop in this region over the next few hours, but trends will
continue to be monitored. Strong shear supportive of rotating
updrafts exists in this region, and some low-topped supercellular
structures would be the main storm mode if deeper convection was
to initiate. While open warm sector convection in that type of
environment would tend to support some tornado threat, decreasing
surface-based buoyancy heading into the evening appears it would
keep this threat minimal, should deep convection be able to
develop at all.
Second Area - The Cold Front:
Forcing immediately along the frontal boundary has resulted in a
thin corridor of convection. This activity is quickly becoming
undercut by the advancing front, but as storms become elevated,
they`ll retain a potential to produce some hail, most of which
should be below severe limits. Areas across the far western CWA
are lacking moisture, as dewpoints had mixed into the upper 50s
this afternoon. But as the front enters the I-35 corridor with
greater moisture content, am expecting some development farther
southwestward down the boundary with upscale growth occurring.
The steepest lapse rates in the 500-700mb layer vaguely coincide
with the greater moisture content as well, and the I-35 corridor
eastward should have the greatest chance of seeing a strong or
borderline severe storm yet this evening, although this threat
will remain isolated.
Otherwise, the cold front will move through the entire area on
schedule, clearing the region to the southeast tomorrow morning. A
much cooler, cloudy, and periodically rainy day will follow for
Monday as strong upglide accompanies an upper shortwave above the
cold post-frontal airmass. Some elevated instability will exist
above the frontal surface which could support isolated elevated
embedded thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, mainly
south of I-20. Severe weather is not expected with any of this
/This Afternoon through Monday/
The main concern through the late evening hours will continue to
be the conditional threat for severe weather. A prolonged period
of deep southerly flow has transported rich Gulf moisture
northward and latest observations indicate that 65 degree
dewpoints have made it nearly to I-20. With extensive low cloud
cover, temperatures have struggled to climb out of the lower 60s
in most locations, but visible satellite imagery does show some
scattering of clouds west of I-35 as a result of deeper mixing.
Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon hours in the
strong warm advection regime mainly east of I-35.
A deep upper trough is digging through California today and as it
does a strong cold front is sliding southward through the Plains.
It is currently located across West Texas and stretches northeast
across Central Oklahoma and will continue to make steady south
progress through the afternoon, perhaps entering our northwest
counties by sunset. Ahead of the front in the warm sector, we`ll
continue to monitor the potential for thunderstorms to develop,
aided by a weak mid level impulse spreading out of northern
Mexico. The HRRR continues to be the most aggressive guidance in
developing discrete convection well ahead of the cold front late
this afternoon and evening. While this is certainly possible,
there remains quite a bit of uncertainty. The 12Z FWD sounding
didn`t have a strong capping inversion per se, but did have a deep
warm layer between 850-600 mb. This is likely to cool and lift
some through the afternoon, especially if the upstream impulse is
stronger than currently forecast. Continued warming of the surface
through the afternoon, especially if we see any breaks in the
cloud cover, could yield parcels which are able to convect within
the warm advection regime. It is in this warm sector (generally
from Waco to Fort Worth to Gainesville and areas east) that we
are most concerned through the evening hours, as shear profiles
are quite strong in the lowest 2.5 km. Surface based parcels
ingested into a strong updraft would certainly have the potential
to rotate and supercell storms would be possible with a
If deep convection fails to initiate in the warm sector, then
there is certainly still a severe threat with any storms that
develop along and just ahead of the southward moving cold front
tonight. Mid level lapse rates will steepen through the late
evening hours and ample deep layer shear will persist to support
supercell structures - perhaps elevated - with a large hail
threat. This threat would likely continue until about midnight
before the cold air deepens and we lose better instability. The
front will continue to move southward overnight, clearing the
region during the early morning hours.
Moisture and clouds will linger through the day on Monday as
southwest flow will remain in place atop our colder airmass.
Another upstream disturbance will swing across West Texas during
the day and additional areas of rain are expected to develop. The
best chances are expected to be across the southern half of the
region through the evening. No severe weather is expected
.LONG TERM... /Issued 443 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2020/
/Monday through Next Weekend/
Multiple days of rain may result in an increased flood threat
Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A Flash Flood Watch
may be warranted for this timeframe in the coming days; however,
there is still uncertainty as to the precip amounts and the
locations where the heaviest precip will fall. Any location may be
susceptible to flooding, but the greatest potential ATTM is in
areas both east of I-35 and south of I-30.
The extended portion of the forecast picks up with the leading
edge of a cold front making its way through the far southeastern
portions of the forecast area around daybreak Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across Central and East
Texas in the vicinity of the front. Behind the front, a cold and
shallow airmass will have settled into North and Central Texas
accompanied by cloudy skies and breezy north winds. As the front
undercuts the warm/moist Gulf air that has been transported into
the area tonight and later today, it will promote isentropic
ascent overtop of the cool airmass.
Meanwhile, a longwave trough and pseudo cut-off low will develop
over the Desert SW of the CONUS. With the northern branch of the
Polar Front Jet and mid level baroclinic zone remaining well
north, the leading edge of the cold front is forecast to stall
out just south of the forecast area Monday afternoon and remain
there for a couple days. With isentropic ascent continuing overtop
of the cool airmass, the low levels will be primed to produce
precipitation with any weak lift that moves overtop.
A weak shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of the longwave
trough Monday afternoon, which should redevelop scattered to
widespread rain showers. Most of the precip will fall as light to
moderate rain, with only a few embedded storms across parts of
Central and East Texas where more positively buoyant air will
reside closer to the surface front. The next shortwave trough
should approach the region over the course of the day Tuesday,
again redeveloping scattered to widespread showers across the
region. Finally, the strongest in the sequence of troughs should
move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. This final trough will
be accompanied by the Polar Front Jet and mid level baroclinic
zone. The increased baroclinicity will induce cyclogenesis along
the trailing edge of the stalled out cold frontal boundary over
South Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Where the front and newly induced low are will be pivotal in the
precip forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday. To the immediate
north of the deepening surface low, a precip maximum is expected
to develop. Guidance has indicated a band of 1-3+ inches of rain
falling in a 12-hour period; however, the location of this has
wavered north and south with each run and model. As with all newly
developed systems, guidance will continue to struggle with the
location of this low until tomorrow night`s front eventually
stalls out across South Texas...then, forecast confidence can grow
as to where this maximum will develop.
Regardless of where this low develops, once the mid level trough
moves east of the region, large scale subsidence and isentropic
descent will finally take hold of the region Wednesday and
Thursday. This will work to clear the clouds out of the region
with some locations across the Big Country seeing the sun as
early as Wednesday afternoon. The entire forecast area should
receive abundant sunshine Thursday and Friday as a surface high
pressure system moves into and through the area.
As the surface high shifts east late Friday...return flow will
setup across the area next weekend. NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean
guidance is in firm agreement with the development of another deep
longwave trough across the western CONUS next weekend and early
next week. This will leave North and Central Texas under a similar
pattern next week, with several weak shortwave perturbations
MVFR conditions currently exist roughly from the I-35 corridor
eastward. While a couple airports around the Metroplex have
briefly scattered their low cigs, this should be short-lived, and
cigs below 2 kft will be the prevailing condition. Have backed
off on convective mentions in the TAFs with this issuance given
observational trends, though a brief window of VCTS is still
warranted as a cold front passes through later this evening. Post-
frontal stratus should be present afterwards with northwest
surface winds of 10-20 kts. Borderline MVFR/IFR cigs should
continue into Monday and through the remainder of the TAF period
with intermittent rainfall. Have included VCSH in the extended
portions of the TAFs through Monday afternoon and evening, but
this timing will be refined in subsequent forecasts with the
introduction of RA/SHRA becoming necessary.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 48 41 46 40 / 70 60 30 80 80
Waco 49 51 42 49 42 / 70 80 40 90 90
Paris 47 48 43 47 41 / 90 50 30 70 80
Denton 43 45 39 44 38 / 60 60 30 70 80
McKinney 44 47 40 46 40 / 90 60 30 80 80
Dallas 46 49 42 47 41 / 80 60 30 80 80
Terrell 48 49 42 49 43 / 90 60 40 80 90
Corsicana 52 52 44 51 45 / 80 80 40 90 90
Temple 52 54 43 49 43 / 60 90 40 80 90
Mineral Wells 42 46 36 43 36 / 40 60 30 80 80
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
713 PM PST Sun Feb 9 2020
Have cancelled the Lake Wind Advisory for Pyramid Lake this
evening since the gusty northeast winds experienced this afternoon
have decreased below advisory criteria over the lake. Northeast
winds will be breezy for the remainder of the evening with the
possibility of blowing dust, reducing visibility around the
Northeast winds will continue to be gusty for the Tahoe Basin
through this evening, decreasing overnight. As for the Sierra
crest into Mono County, expect these strong winds to last into
Monday with gusts exceeding 100 mph at times. The Mammoth
Mountain summit is currently seeing gusts of 145 mph!
Winds are forecast to decrease in intensity along the Sierra crest
by Monday night. -LaGuardia
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 211 PM PST Sun Feb 9 2020/
Gusty winds and brisk conditions will continue through Monday for
much of the Sierra and western Nevada, with areas of blowing dust
and choppy lake conditions. Unusually strong east to northeast
winds along the Sierra continue through early Monday with turbulence
along and west of the crest as well as increased potential for
wind damage. Cold and dry conditions will persist for most of the
week. Next disturbance with light snow showers is expected to
move through the region Thursday night into Friday.
The well advertised strong east wind event continues over the
region into Monday morning, bringing strong winds to the Sierra
ridges and hazardous conditions for air travel and area lakes. We
did see some light snow accumulation this morning in the Sierra,
generally a couple inches or less, but overall very light due to
the lack of moisture. The unusually strong east winds have definitely
been the main player.
The peak wind of the day so far was at the top of Kirkwood Ski
Area with a gust of 209 mph at 7:45AM this morning. If this
observation is verified as accurate, then that could be the new
California all-time record strongest wind! This is an unofficial
measurement until it is certified as accurate by the California
State Climate office.
There are other locations around the Tahoe region Sierra Crest
which are also seeing high winds, but not to the full extent of
Kirkwood, most other stations are around 90-130 mph. There have
already been a few reports of blown down trees around the Kirkwood
area, and after the winds subside it is possible that we will
get more reports of damage and we will make sure to document those.
We also increased winds for Lake Tahoe through this evening, with
expected gusts up to 50-60 mph on the lake with waves up to 3-6
feet especially along the western shores of the lake. These high
waves are life threatening for anyone who ventures out onto the
water today in a small boat. Minor lake shore flooding is likely
with this high of surf and the current high lake level.
Winds will continue to increase into Mono County and Mammoth
Lakes areas through this evening. The Mammoth Mountain area will
see winds steadily increase into tonight with potential for gusts
to 150 mph. Wind damage to trees and power lines is possible for
the Mammoth area this evening and tonight, especially for the
Blowing dust continues around the region through tonight, mainly
downstream of the Carson/Humboldt Sinks and downwind of the Smoke
Creek/Black Rock/Honey Lake Basin. There is even some blowing dust
even making it into the Tahoe Basin if you can believe that! How
often have we ever talked about blowing dust in the Tahoe Basin?
Winds will begin to diminish by Monday afternoon, but breezy east
winds will continue in the Sierra ridges through Tuesday morning
with brisk conditions and very low wind chills below zero. -Hoon
LONG TERM...Tuesday through next weekend...
Skies will clear out and we will see temperatures rebound back to
above normal once again by Tuesday. Mild weather with mostly
clear skies and light winds are expected Tuesday through
Wednesday, with some increasing winds on Thursday ahead of the the
next frontal system.
The next storm system is expected to push through northern CA/NV
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring gusty winds to the
region and chances for mountain snow and valley rain. Temperatures
will cool off sharply for Thursday with highs in the mid 40s for
western Nevada and 30s in the Sierra.
Another fast moving disturbance may move through the region next
weekend, so we have kept in a chance of precipitation for then as
well. There is quite a bit of spread in the models for next
weekend, so still pretty low confidence there. -Hoon
Rough day for flying across the region with impressive NE winds
creating severe mountain wave turbulence and wind shear, and now
areas of blowing dust.
Models showing 80-100kt 500mb flow across the region through 12z/Mon
as deep upper low dives into SoCal. This will continue the concerns
for severe turbulence and wind shear into Monday morning, especially
at our mountain airports such as TRK, TVL, and MMH. Worst conditions
near MMH roughly 0z-7z this evening, with another burst of NE flow
around TVL, TRK between 3z-9z tonight.
For RNO, CXP, MEV, NFL gusty NE winds will persist into the evening
with gusts up to 30-35kts likely, before fading tonight following
latest HRRR guidance. This will bring in pockets of blowing dust but
not anticipating anything below MVFR levels for periods of time.
Pretty quiet tomorrow wind-wise with light NE flow. This pattern
lasts into Tuesday and Wednesday as upper ridge builds in.
NV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday NVZ002.
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday CAZ073.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday CAZ072.
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