Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/09/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
932 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Latest Bowman radar shows reflectivities slowly decreasing with time, but light snow will continue for a few more hours at least. The Department of Transportation has issued a No Travel Advised for southwestern North Dakota which includes the cities of Marmarth, Bowman, Hettinger and surrounding areas due to snow creating near zero visibilities. An area of heavy snowfall estimated between 8 and 10 inches was reported by the public approximately 17 miles southwest of Rhame in Bowman County. This location is in far southwest Bowman County. We talked to spotters around that highest snowfall total and so far we have snowfall amounts ranging from 4 inches from just west of Marmarth in Slope county, to 5 inches at Mud Buttes in Bowman County. One to 1.5 inches of snowfall have been reported from Hettinger to Reeder in Adams County, to 3 inches in Bowman/Bowman County. Will continue with the winter weather advisory and let the midnight shift re-evaluate the ongoing snow in the next update. Expecting the snow to wane more aggressively from now through midnight as the best forcing, frontogenesis, and heavy banding of snow has now shifted into north central and northeast South Dakota. Reflectivities are skirting the southern border across far south central ND as some of the snow from South Dakota pivots north. Otherwise, an elongated 500mb shortwave was located over northern North Dakota. RAP BUFKIT soundings show enough Omega/upward vertical motion occurring in a nearly saturated low level layer. Reflectivities have been steadily increasing between Minot and Bismarck, and feel that a period of light snow and/or flurries will be the most likely outcome overnight. Have mentioned this in the gridded data, especially with stratus becoming more widespread overnight. UPDATE Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Latest Bowman Radar, southwest webcams, and the North Dakota Department of Transportation Travel Information Map confirms light snow/snow covered roads in southwest North Dakota. Essentially along and south of a line from Beach to Medora and into Amidon through Hettinger. The deterministic GFS/Fv3 core is initializing the best with the current radar and surface observations. The GFS Heavy Banded Snow procedure is doing well with the precipitation not only in the southwest, but farther north into Beach where a lobe of low level frontogenesis is advertised this evening. We will continue to see the snow fester in the southwest through 03z, then from 03z-06z, the dynamics and overall heavy banded snow elements will shift away from southwest North Dakota and become more focused over south central South Dakota. This is in line with the progression of the 700mb low from western South Dakota into central South Dakota this evening. In doing so, will have to watch conditions near/along the ND/SD border this evening for any northward progression/development from South Dakota. Right now, the current forecast looks good. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Snow accumulations in far southwest ND are the main forecast issue in the short term period. Model trended south with the band of snow across far southwest ND this morning and have remained situated mainly from Bowman County south into South Dakota, then east along the ND/SD border but dropping farther south as you move into the central Dakotas. The current advisory looks good with Bowman county well within the 3-5 inch criteria, and mainly the southwest half of Slope and Adams Counties within advisory criteria, but with a tight gradient to mainly a half inch to an inch over the northeast portions of these counties. As far as banding potential goes, will still have to monitor, but at this time the potential seems to have diminished. Currently the Bowman radar shows an area of light to moderate snow mainly along and south of Highway 12 from Marmarth to just west of Hettinger. This area will be within the strongest Synoptic scale ascent through the remainder of the afternoon and early this evening as the mid and upper level trough moves through. The track of the 70H low will be favorable for heavier snow accumulations within the advisory area. This will also be a time of steepest lapse rates and mid level fg forcing. This supports some higher snow amounts, especially during the hours of max heating this afternoon. However, the better potential for banded precipitation will lie farther to the south, from northwest into east central South Dakota, from this afternoon through around midnight. This is where you see a strong 2d FG circulation, congruent with negative EPV and even steeper lapse rates. Some of the mesoscale models (ARW,NMM) and the 18Z NAM are still flirting with warning criteria snowfall amounts over southwest Bowman county, and this could certainly come to fruition, but overall, this will be over only a small portion of the county, with most of the county in advisory criteria. Any accumulating snow should be out of the area shortly after midnight, if not before. We may see a little drifting snow or patchy blowing snow into the early overnight hours. Will leave the advisory going through 12Z for now and let the evening/overnight shift revisit for possible shortening of the hazard. Northerly flow behind the exiting system Sunday morning quickly becomes west to southwest during the day, ahead of the next shortwave trough that pushes into the northwest by Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 20s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 The long term period will consist of a northwest flow pattern with occasional clipper tracking across the Northern Plains, each bringing a chance of precipitation. Models are in reasonable agreement with the first clipper bringing a chance of light snow across the forecast area late Sunday night and Monday. Models diverge with the next mid-week clipper as the GFS farther east with the cold air behind the cold front. Overall we expect a better chance of snow across the forecast area with this system, but amounts remain on the light side. The ECMWF is much colder over the forecast area behind the clipper, while the GFS keeps the coldest air shunted off to the east. After this system, the ECMWF warms up late in the work week and into next weekend, while the GFS holds off on bringing the coldest air into the region until the weekend. At this time none of the clipper systems appear to be rather quick moving, with low a low probability of heavy snow accumulations. And with such deterministic model disagreement and a large envelope of solutions depicted by the GEFS, see no reason to stray from the model blend of solutions at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Expect deteriorating ceilings tonight, then improving ceilings 12z-21z Sunday. Light snow is expected for a couple hours at KDIK this evening, 02z-04z, as an exiting low pressure moves into south central South Dakota. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs from southern Canada into northern North Dakota will progress south tonight and become more widespread as low level winds switch from easterly to northeast and then northerly. Cigs will lift to VFR at all terminals between 18z-21z Sunday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NDZ040-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 .UPDATE... Aviation Discussion. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020/ Through Sunday. A weak surface front has pushed into far southeast Alabama. A few light showers will continue across Pike and Barbour counties through 4 pm. Skies have cleared quickly west of the surface front, with clearing expected for the remaining counties across east Alabama by sunset. A sfc high will slide eastward across Alabama overnight and be centered over Georgia by Sunday morning. The combination of light winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall quickly this evening. With clouds and rain covering much of east Alabama today, conditions look favorable for the formation of fog. Models show the lowest visibilities along and south of the I-85 corridor. This may be where the left over surface boundary is located after the flow becomes easterly. Confidence in widespread fog has decreased now that the latest RAP model is showing a stronger low level easterly flow. Higher boundary layer winds would favor low clouds over fog. Visibilities below 1 mile have been included in the the Hazardous Weather Outlook. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020/ /Extended rainy period with associated flood risk; rain totals maximized near I-20, totaling ~5-7 inches; ~3-5 inches between I-20 & I-85/ *Interests across Central Alabama are urged to monitor forecasts and be prepared to take protective action should flooding develop in their area. Monday through Tuesday. On Monday morning, a front will be inbound from the northwest while a subtle subtropical impulse moves eastbound over Texas, ahead of a digging upper trough over southern California that`ll pass by on Thursday. Global model solutions show this lead impulse running atop the front later in the day, aiding in increasing rainfall rates as the front moves into a plume of anomalously high precipitable water (for this time of year). The front is expected to slow & then stall across Central Alabama Monday afternoon/evening, serving as a focus for training rainfall into Tuesday. Forecast soundings show a deeply saturated column, with a varied presence of tall & skinny CAPE, which would tend to aid in rainfall efficiency given the low- and upper-level features; thus, instances of heavy rainfall are apparent. Rain totals during this first wave (Monday into Tuesday) are expected to be highest north of Interstate-85, offering much of Central Alabama a window to rack up around 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher). This is supported by EURO/GFS ensembles & probabilities. Climate sites along the Interstate 20 corridor are between 1.5-2x average rain totals year to date. Having also just gone through a fairly wet episode a few days prior, flooding issues resulting from currently forecast amounts are probable. Threat confidence will be raised to a 4 in the hazardous weather outlook (focused north of Interstate 85 at this time). Guidance continues to (generally) suggest a relative downswing in rainfall activity Tuesday afternoon & night (not steady & heavy as before), but we should still have spells of rain showers as frontal overrunning persists. We`ll have to closely watch the evolution of the front`s position in modeling as any southward error could open the door for a bit more in the way of rain than currently indicated. Wednesday through Thursday. After pivoting over the Southwest U.S., the large-scale trough will be in an eastward trajectory on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast to develop upstream along the existing baroclinic zone. Spells of rain showers should be the theme through the day as we await the next round of widespread, steady & heavier rain associated with a cold front. Late Wednesday into Thursday will hold the second and final bout of organized rain that`ll support a renewed flood threat. This will be especially so for locations that are soaked from the early-week round of rain. Current guidance suggests the primary focus for the heaviest totals could once again be either side of Interstate 20 at around an additional 2-3 inches (possibly locally higher). Threat confidence will be introduced at a 3 for this time frame in the hazardous weather outlook. Friday. Deterministic & most EURO/GFS ensembles show dry weather for Friday as the cold front moves east, though a few show a slower exiting time and suggests some lingering showers (will maintain a slight chance for now, mainly southeast areas). 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. Other than a few clouds across extreme southeast Central Alabama, skies are clear this evening with a mix of calm winds and light winds from the northwest. There is still a southerly wind at TOI and LSF, with dewpoints in the 40s as far north as ALX. With elevated surface moisture, expect fog to develop overnight, confined to eastern locations. Surface and boundary layers increase before sunrise, and could see a mix of fog and low stratus clouds across the far south and east. Vsbys below 3 miles are possible, with LIFR conditions possible at KTOI, closer to the stalling frontal boundary. Conditions improve after 13z with VFR conds by 15z. Winds will increase from the southeast at 8-10kts through Sunday morning. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Light rain will spread across Central AL this morning, but will generally be lower amounts. Skies will begin to clear from west to east this afternoon with high pressure building into the region tonight and Sunday. Next week will be very wet with periods of heavy rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 29 60 46 64 53 / 0 0 20 90 100 Anniston 31 61 46 66 56 / 0 0 10 90 100 Birmingham 34 63 51 66 57 / 0 0 20 90 100 Tuscaloosa 36 66 53 69 57 / 0 0 30 90 100 Calera 34 63 50 67 58 / 0 0 20 90 100 Auburn 35 59 46 68 60 / 10 0 10 70 90 Montgomery 37 66 49 72 62 / 10 0 10 70 80 Troy 35 66 49 72 62 / 10 0 10 50 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
550 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Still VFR conditions this afternoon with broken to overcast multilayered low clouds and moderate to breezy southeast winds. HRRR depicts Gulf moisture continuing to move inland tonight on moderate southeast winds. Ceilings will lower to MVFR after midnight. Winds will become strong southeast on Sunday, that is breezy to windy and gusty, courtesy of interaction between Gulf high pressure and lower Plains pressure. Ceilings will be MVFR most of the day Sunday, though afternoon winds may be strong enough to very briefly mix ceilings to VFR. An isolated shower will be possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/ SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Cumulus field build in nicely late this morning and early afternoon, thickest across the lower RGV. KBRO radar shows weak echos of light precipitation trying to make its way across the border from Mexico. A few light showers will be possible through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening, but very light to no accumulations are expected. Temperatures have warmed up into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. The cloud cover should keep temperatures from rising much more than a degree or two over the next couple of hours. A very warm and humid night is expected as low level moisture/clouds continue to advect in from the south/southeast. Low temps will only bottom out in the mid-upper 60s across the CWA. A weak mid/upper level shortwave trough will approach Southern Texas overnight tonight, increasing chances of light streamer showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two on Sunday, as instability increases. The highest chances of precipitation will be across the Northern Ranchlands. The other main story on Sunday will be a drastic increase in wind speeds starting mid-late Sunday morning. Models are in fair agreement that 925mb wind speeds will increase to 35 to 40 knots overnight tonight and into early Sunday morning. There are still some questions as to how much mixing will occur with diurnal heating as overcast skies are expected to continue into Sunday and a stout 850mb inversion remains in place. However, guidance has been persistent showing very breezy to strong winds, especially across the lower RGV through the afternoon Sunday. A Wind Advisory may be needed, highest confidence for Cameron and Willacy Counties, tomorrow as sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts around 40 mph, will be possible. Although skies will remain cloudy or mostly cloudy, highs on Sunday will still reach the lower-mid 80s, with mid-upper 70s along the coast. Very warm and humid conditions will continue into Sunday night, with lows only dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s by sunrise Monday. LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday):A longwave trough develops over the Rockies and Central Plains by Wednesday of next week as a mid-level trough from Canada and a Baja closed low combine. This will bring in our next cold front late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Models beginning to show some better agreement with the strength and some what on the timing of these features. Confidence remains below average but is inching upwards as the models come in line again. Increasing moisture, above normal temperatures along with wind will be featured Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure trough develops to our west. Rain chances will be limited Monday and Tuesday to a few showers as the moisture steadily deepens. The front is depicted by the EC/GFS and Canadian to move through the CWA Tuesday night and off the lower coast Wednesday around or a few hours shortly after sunrise. This may allow for temperatures to fall through the morning hours with limited recovery Wed afternoon especially for the Lower RGV. Model guidance and raw temperatures are trending cooler (once again) so will trend in this direction for Wednesday as well as Thursday with CAA and a steady north wind persisting. Best rain chances develop as the front pushes through with latest model trends favoring chance to likely pops. With a bit faster forward pace of the front and the mid level trough will trend lowering pops west to east Wednesday. Sprawling cold surface ridging from the Great Lakes to the Deep South takes over Thursday through Saturday. Deep South Texas will reside on the west side of the cold ridge so we can expect an increase in clouds and a slight warming trend for late next week and into next weekend. Rain chances Thu and Fri close to nil but a bump in moisture Saturday may provide isolated showers. MARINE:(Now through Sunday Night): A tightening pressure gradient will increase low level winds tonight for the offshore Gulf waters (20-60 nm). SCEC conditions will transition to SCA conditions by midnight tonight for the offshore waters. Winds will increase and seas will build across the nearshore waters by Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed for the Laguna Madre on Sunday morning, as well. Adverse marine conditions will continue through much of the remainder of the short term period, with more favorable marine conditions expected by late Sunday night. Pressure gradient over the Lower Texas coast remains moderate to strong through Tuesday morning as a broad mid-level trough becomes established over the Rockies and Central Plains. Cold front surges offshore early Wednesday with moderate to strong northerly winds through at least Thursday morning. An extended period of exercise caution or small craft advisories are expected for all or portions of the coastal waters much of next week. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/60
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
934 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds and a few lingering snow showers this morning will decrease in areal coverage later this morning as high pressure builds into the North Country today. Most areas should see some sunshine by this afternoon...but below normal temperatures will be the rule for today and tonight. A slow warming trend will start on Sunday along with the possibility of a few snow showers in the afternoon. Better chances for snow and minor accumulations will come later Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 926 PM EST Saturday...1031mb high pres centered over KMSS is providing our cwa with clear skies and light winds, combined with fresh snow pack is resulting in temps free falling this evening. Have updated to chase hrly obs and drop temps across portions of the cwa by another 1 to 3 degrees. Temps as of 9 PM are -17F OGS, -15F SLK/Edwards/Ellenburg, and -13F MSS and Potsdam. Meanwhile in VT East Berkshire is -19F, Lake Eden and Island Pond -13F, and -11F at Lake Elmore and Newport. Lows will range from -5F lower CT river valley to -25F SLV/Western Dacks and northern VT, with localized areas near -30F possible given crnt trends. Previous discussion below: It`ll be clear and cold tonight as high pressure builds directly over the region. Light winds, clear skies, and fresh snowpack will make for optimal radiational cooling. Hence expect everyone will drop below zero tonight, with the usual cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks in the teens to around 20 below. Clouds increase tomorrow ahead of low pressure approaching from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Warm advection will develop across the region as the low draws closer, eventually lifting into the St Lawrence Valley late Sunday night. Sunday will be much warmer than today as a result, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Precipitation will spread into southern sections late Sunday afternoon, but bulk of precipitation will hold off until overnight Sunday night when it will spread northward on the nose of a strong southwest jet. Temperatures will fall a bit early, then hold steady or even rise overnight as warm air advection increases, but they will remain cold enough for the precipitation to fall as all snow. The heaviest/steadiest snow will occur after midnight; overnight totals will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 323 PM EST Saturday...For Monday, a clipper low will track near the region with the upper vort max advecting into the region around the same time. Widespread snow should take place with modest forcing from the a band of deformation with a weak thermal with some good warm, moist advection in the boundary layer. Low-level convergence is not all that impressive, so the best forcing will come from upslope snow. Down in the Champlain Valley, terrain shadowing from a 35-40 knot jet will keep our chances for precipitation a bit lower. Warm advection will warm many areas into the mid 30s with upper 30s in the Champlain and southern Connecticut River Valley. Snow levels will raise up to 500 to 1500ft agl, generally higher south. Surface high and height rises should quickly scour out moisture with our relatively unblocked flow. Overnight lows will fall into the upper teens to mid 20s. Some mixed signals for radiational cooling potential as upper clouds should start streaming north. So Monday night temps could be modified in future updates. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 323 PM EST Saturday...The synoptic pattern will be influenced by a cut-off low in the Southwestern US. As it ambles eastward, it will find strong thickness packing along the mid-South. Strengthening southerly return flow will keep a steady stream of precipitation ahead of this upper low. The question becomes how convection associated with the feature impacts downstream ridging with models showing varying solutions beyond Wednesday. The GFS offers a flatter wave pattern with strong high pressure over Canada ensuring that steady stream of moisture stays to our south as the upper low only slowly moves east. The EC favors a slowly amplifying upper ridge, allowing the decaying upper low to traverse nearer to us and briefly push the stream of moisture over us towards the later portion of next week. Ensemble forecasts do not paint a clear picture yet as to what exactly will happen with that. So for the sensible weather over the North Country, a northern stream shortwave will pass through with an attendant surface low well to our north pushing a cold front south. Above normal temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday trending towards seasonal norms as the cold front descends south Wednesday night with a chance for snow showers. Either a weak low quickly slides to our south and leaves us dry, or a stronger low travels northeast from the Ohio River Valley and gives us greater precipitation chances. Could see it going either way. Without clear consensus for the later half of next week, at least indicated slight chance to chance PoPs (20%-40%) as medium range guidance mulls it over. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...Predominately VFR through the TAF period, with local MVFR ceilings possible at KRUT after 20z Sunday. Overnight, skies should remain mostly clear as high pressure crests overhead. Soundings indicate rather dry airmass in place, however high-res models, including NAM & RAP show sharp low level inversion developing therefore thinking the potential exists for some local fog development. Thinking best chance will be at KBTV given arctic airmass and generally light east/southeast winds. Have included mention of VCFG after 08z at both KBTV & KSLK for potential low visibilities. Any fog that does develop will dissipate by 14z. A warm front will creep northward late tomorrow afternoon. Associated with this, low clouds will increase from the southwest after 18z. Ceilings will largely remain VFR however, MVFR ceilings ~2900ft may be possible at KRUT. Winds should remain generally light and variable overnight becoming southerly after 14z, between 5-7 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance RA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...LaRocca
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1040 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will move east of the area overnight with a dry surface ridge building into the region for Sunday then move off the coast Monday. Moisture will again begin to increase in the southerly flow on the backside of the offshore high and ahead of a frontal system Monday. The front and associated high moisture are forecast to be in the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Upper level trough currently moving east of the forecast area will move offshore over the next couple of hours with drier air beginning to filter in late tonight. Main concern overnight will be fog potential as low level moisture is high and winds will be light and variable. As such expect fog to developing during the early morning hours and become widespread toward daybreak. Temperatures overnight will be in the low 30s for much of the area with mid 30s in the far eastern Midlands. Although moisture will remain on area roads ground temperatures are well above freezing so do not expect any issues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The models show surface high pressure ridging into the forecast area through Sunday night. Moisture should increase in a southerly flow on the backside of offshore high pressure and ahead of a cold front Monday. Moisture should become deep closer to the front Monday night. A model blend supports chance pops mainly in the west part Monday and likely or categorical pops Monday night and Tuesday. Warming and moisture advection associated with a strong h85 jet may support just enough instability for thunderstorms late Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal system may linger in the region Wednesday and Thursday. There may be increased moisture associated with an area of low pressure Thursday. The models are in poor agreement with the placement of this low. We followed a model blend for the pop forecast. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog/stratus restrictions expected tonight into early Sunday morning all terminals except OGB. Upper disturbance continues to move through the region and low VFR cigs have cleared out. However, further to the west where light rain and some snow occurred widespread LIFR restrictions have developed and satellite imagery showing the area is expanding eastward. HRRR has a good handle on current situation and shows the LIFR cigs and some MVFR vsbys moving over the terminals by 06z and remaining in place through 14-15z. Updated forecast to account for worse conditions bringing in LIFR cigs all terminals except OGB by 06z. Vsbys are less certain as some locations to the west had vsbys less than 1SM but have since risen to MVFR and think that may be the case for the terminals as well so forecasting more optimistic vsbys. After morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected Sunday afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A series of weather systems will provide a chance of showers and associated restrictions at times late Monday through Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Runoff from the recent heavy rainfall event is resulting in moderate to major flooding on all area river forecast points. Please stay abreast of the latest river stage forecasts on our webpage at && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build toward the region later this afternoon and crest over the area Sunday. Low pressure will track across the region on Monday. High pressure will build over the area Tuesday. Low pressure will track south of the area Wednesday with high pressure moving in from the west on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 910pm Update... Only change was to slow down the rate of temperature falls tonight. A few places beginning to decouple, but most places still have a light breeze with limited decoupling. Expect this to change as high pressure builds in tonight, with temperatures falling significantly especially after midnight. Previous Discussion... Much more tranquil for this term, but cold. For tonight...the upper trof moving through the region this afternoon which was picked up well by the NAM and RAP will be east of the region later this evening. Flurry/snow showers will be ending as the wnw flow begins to weaken. Best llvl convergence associated w/the activity across the nne will also be weakening this evening. High pres to the sw is expected slide across srn New England overnight. Winds will be dropping off and skies will be clearing. Cold airmass in place and w/light winds and clearing skies, will allow for some very cold temps overnight. NAM/RAP soundings indicate an inversion developing by early Sunday morning w/some weak WAA aloft. Cold air right at the sfc will be trapped leading to further cooling. Expecting overnight lows to go below zero all the way to the coast. Some valley locations across the St. John Valley and the Allagash region could see temps by daybreak Sunday -25 to -30F. High pres will slide off the east into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday. A light southerly flow around the backside of the high will allow a slight recovery in the airmass, but still cold for February. Despite the slight moderation in the airmass, daytime temps will be below normal. Upper flow looks to be near zonal offsetting the warming some. Clouds will be apchg from the west later in the day ahead of a low pres system moving out of the Great Lakes region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm air advection towards the surface will be ongoing across Maine as low pressure exits east of Michigans lower peninsula. Associated precipitation will begin to overspread the area first Downeast and along the coast into central and northern areas through the early morning hours. Snow can be expected during onset across all areas, with rain mixing in across portions of coastal and interior Downeast. This transition will be caused by the warming lower levels, with little warming of the mid levels to create a wintry mix. Light precip will last over much of the region through the day, tapering in the late afternoon. Little amplification of the shortwave is anticipated, however the surface low generates a good warm push, which packs together pot temp contours at 700mb. This could hint at a (weakening) localized band of enhanced forcing to create brief on and off moderate precip rates ahead of the broad low. NAM has this feature tracking through a Millinocket to Bridgewater line, but this small of a feature will require consistency in both space and time to confidently show in the QPF forecast. Overall, light accumulations will be possible with totals approaching 4 inches towards the eastern international border around Houlton and Danforth. High pressure follows Monday night into Tuesday morning with dry conditions. Low pressure is set to tracks south of Maine Tuesday, with the chance of some rain and snow showers through Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure again builds in behind for Wednesday and Wednesday night with dry conditions. NW winds across the crown of Maine will bring cooler temperatures overnight, with lows creeping into the single digits. Some moisture and clouds will be in the vicinity, keeping temperatures from falling too much. This isnt the case Thursday night, as the high tracks closer. Guidance converges at this point, with the ECMWF bringing a large system into New England, and the Canadian and GFS remaining dry. Kept PoPs low at this point, but will need to watch trends in ensembles to improve forecast confidence. Large high pressure will move into the eastern CONUS by next weekend, with some dry conditions. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR tonight into Sunday. WNW 10-15 mph will be dropping off to less than 7 mph later this evening. Wind will shift around to the S on Sunday w/speeds 5 to 10 mph. SHORT TERM: Sun night-Mon: Becoming MVFR/IFR in light snow Sun night at BHB and BGR in the evening and after midnight across northern terminals. S 5-10kts becoming WSW in the afternoon. Snow will change to rain at BHB and BGR. Mon night-Tue...Conditions improve to VFR Mon night for Downeast terminals and Tue afternoon for northern sites. W 5kts Mon night becoming light S Tue. Tue night-Wed: Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR Tue evening through Wed in snow acrs the north and possible rain/snow mix over Downeast. Wed Night: VFR with MVFR moving in across the north with snow showers amid SW/W winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NW winds 15 to 25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt early this evening. Winds are just a bit stronger than forecast and raised winds a few knots this evening. Seas are still running high averaging 7-10 ft away from the immediate coast. Seas will continue to drop off w/the offshore winds, and thinking is that heights will still be AOA 6 ft overnight. Decided to keep SCA going and extended it until 4AM Sunday given the continued swell. It looks like seas will be dropping below 6 ft after 4 AM and continue this trend into Sunday. Some light freezing spray tonight as well. Light winds will become SW and increase to 10-15 kt later in the day. SHORT TERM: SCA will be needed late Sunday night as winds and waves increase ahead of low pressure exiting New England through Monday. Conditions begin to improve below SCA Monday night. Another SCA may be needed late Tuesday night into Wednesday night as winds and waves again increase with a passing disturbance. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/Hewitt Short Term...Cornwell Long Term...Cornwell Aviation...Foisy/Hewitt/Cornwell Marine...Foisy/Hewitt/Cornwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
412 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the upper level shortwave trough to affect the CWA moving through MT toward northern WY. The regional surface analysis placed a low pressure center over east-central WY, a quasi-stationary front from southeast MT through northeast WY, the NE Panhandle into western KS. A cold front was moving into western WY. The pressure gradient was tightest across central/eastern WY, with strongest west to southwest winds occurring across the central Laramie Range into Platte County. Peak gusts recorded thus far were 59 MPH at Bordeaux and 60 MPH at Coleman. The High Wind Warning for WY Zone 106 remains in effect until 5 PM MST. Recently cancelled the High Wind Warning for the South Laramie Range Foothills as wind gusts have struggled to rise above 45 MPH. Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow continue through late this afternoon for WY Zones 110/116 (North Snowy Range Foothills/South Laramie Range). Snow showers were developing over western/central WY and western SD. As the front approaches late this afternoon, the HRRR continues its depiction of narrow snow band moving east-southeast along the I-80 corridor in southeast WY. Additional snow showers will spread east across east-central WY and the northern NE Panhandle through this evening. Accumulations will range from an inch or less lower elevations, to 3 to 6 inches above 8500 feet. Snow showers will taper off for lower elevations Sunday morning, but linger over higher elevations through the afternoon. Another inch of snow is possible. After highs in the 40s and lower 50s Saturday afternoon, it will be 20-25 degrees colder with 700mb temperatures falling to -14 to -18C. Low temperatures Sunday night drop into the single digits to lower teens. Below zero temperatures will be relegated to the more sheltered valleys west of I-25. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Split flow regime continues with closed low over northern Baja CA Monday ejecting northeast across the southern Rockies Tuesday, transitioning to an open wave by Wednesday. An active northwest flow aloft will dominate the CWA through mid-week, becoming near zonal ahead of another shortwave trough Friday. Temperatures during the week will continue to average below seasonal normals as a couple Alberta clippers usher in brief intrusions of Canadian air, along with some snow showers. Significant accumulations are not expected, however the higher elevations will receive at least a few inches. The potential for strong winds returns mid-to-late week with elevated 700/850mb CAG-CPR and CAG-BRX height gradients and 45-55kt 700-800mb flow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 412 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 VFR expected at the terminals this evening though there will be some snow showers over mainly southeast WY. Cold front will move across the area later this evening switching winds out of a northerly direction with MVFR/IFR cigs developing over most areas mostly after 06Z with low cigs continuing for much of the day Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020 Recent snow pack, cold temperatures, non-critical humidities and periodic chances for more precipitation will preclude fire weather concerns through much of next week. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ110- 116. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...MAJ AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
925 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Evolution of the precipitation this evening has been rapid and fairly in line with earlier forecast. Dynamically, a fairly open mid-level wave will scoot out across SD during the overnight and early Sunday morning hours, with a more closed feature which can be seen on evening WV loop moving pretty much near to just north of I-90. The leading warm advective/frontogenetic band is fairly narrow at present, and has featured a period of 1/4 to 1/2sm visibility, which is not surprising given the reservoir of weakly negative EPV streaming over the boundary. Frontogenetic boundary will reach a pivot point and stretch out across near the Highway 14 corridor for numerous hours into the last half of the night, and this will likely feature some areas with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. If these remain stationary over an area, likely narrow areas of snowfall amounts will be more of the 10-14" range, which matches up well with the HREF probability matched mean. Should note that much of the high res guidance is running a bit slow on development and intensification. There is actually a bit of convective instability in some of the forecast soundings over the BKX/MML/MWM areas starting around 05z, so would not even be surprised to get a rogue thundersnow event somewhere north and east of KFSD. Areas to the south of this band are likely to get a quick inch or little more, and this included the FSD area which will see this start by around 930 pm. In terms of changes, did add in two counties to the warning in southwest MN (Murray and Cottonwood) based on the expected 5-9" snowfall. Still some questions on areas south of existing advisory with the amount of snowfall and the impact of the stronger winds developing very late tonight into midday Sunday. May get a better feel once have seen how much actual snowfall occurs, and if we get some light freezing precip later tonight/early Sunday to crust over the new snow. Still watching for mid-levels to dry out somewhat to the south of the band later tonight, which will serve to sharpen the southern boundary as well as bring a threat for a brief period of freezing drizzle. However, impacts from any icing would likely be minimal given the leading snowfall. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Complex forecast in the near term with low pressure system moving through the area leading to a narrow but intense band of snow along the highway 14 corridor. Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate this evening as initial band of 700 mb frontogenesis sweeps across the area. This band will pivot north with time, and moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to fall along the highway 14 corridor through the overnight. With strong frontogenetic forcing lingering through the night, and negative EPV*, expect to see 1+"/hr rates of snowfall through the overnight. Further to the south, snowfall is a much tougher call as area remains south of much of the forcing after the initial frontogenetic band. Expect a very tight gradient of snowfall on the south side of the snow band setting up north of I-90. GFS model soundings are hinting at the potential for freezing drizzle developing after 09Z Sunday morning across northwest Iowa as the elevated dendritic layer dries out. NAM keeps deeper saturation around through the morning, while the HRRR and RAP are a bit slower than the GFS in drying the elevated dendritic layer. With strong low level cold air advection leading to lift through the morning hours, have expanded winter weather advisory across northwest Iowa for the combination of snow, strong winds and potential for light icing. Speaking of the winds, strong low level cold air advection coupled with strong pressure rises (near 7 mb/3hrs) behind the front will aid in creating gusty winds through at least the morning hours on Sunday. Have issued a wind advisory in the Missouri River Valley for the gusty winds where strongest pressure rises are coupled with cold air advection. Potential to expand either the wind advisory or the winter weather advisory across the center part of the forecast area (currently void of headlines) on Sunday morning depending on the blowing snow potential. Blowing snow model suggests the greatest potential for blowing snow will likely be as snow is falling as snow liquid ratio will generally be in the 10-15:1 range through the event. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Much quieter forecast in the extended with the first half of the week expected to be dry with near seasonal temperatures. Upper trough currently working south along the west coast gets caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet, before eventually being guided east by the southern branch of the jet. At this point, there is growing confidence the mid week disturbance will remain south of the forecast area; however, much cooler air works south as the system shifts off to the east. Could see light precipitation as the arctic boundary plunges south Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cold air doesn`t stick around for long however as strong southerly winds develop during the first half of next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Ceiling will be lowering this evening as a band of precipitation develops across the area. The most widespread and significant snowfall is expected along a KHON-KMWM line, where snowfall is likely to reduce visibility to 1/2sm or less at times tonight. Visibilities could be briefly low as the band passes over the KFSD area in the developmental stage after 03z this evening, but should set up mainly north, which could allow some drying aloft to allow a chance for freezing drizzle late tonight into early Sunday mainly near and south of I-90. Widespread MVFR ceilings likely retain residence a bit longer into Sunday, with drying behind allowing erosion from the north/northwest later in the afternoon. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for SDZ068>071. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for SDZ038>040. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for SDZ054>056. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for MNZ089-090-097- 098. Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for MNZ071-072-080- 081. IA...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for IAZ020-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for IAZ001>003-013- 014. NE...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...Chapman SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...Chapman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
536 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 A strong Pacific cold moving thorugh the nrn Rockies this afternoon will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The RAP, HRRR and NAM indicate showers or sprinkles in the warm sector ahead of the front. The mix of Pacific and Canadian air will limit highs to the 20s and 30s Sunday. Strongest winds, during the morning hours, are across ncntl Nebraska. Gusts to around 45 mph accompanied by a few snow showers or rain or freezing rain showers are expected to develop. The temperature forecast tonight leans on the deterministic model blend. Bias correction was added to the model blend for Sunday`s highs and Sunday night`s lows use the guidance blend plus bias correction. The forecast lows Sunday night may be too warm by a few degrees. The forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the guidance which was several degrees cooler than the previous forecast. The POP forecast uses the model blend. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 Three cold fronts drop through or back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska in the extended forecast. None of them is advertising significant precipitation and WPC suggested little or no rain or snow during the next 7 days across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. A reinforcing Pacific cold front moves through Monday followed arctic back door cold fronts late Wednesday and next weekend. The core of the arctic air in both cases will be moving through the Upper Midwest. The arctic air across wrn and ncntl Nebraska is expected to lower highs into the 20s and 30s. A cool down of about 10 degrees. Slight chances of snow are in place Wednesday and Saturday. The forcing is weak and moisture modest. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020 VFR conditions will continue through the evening into early Sunday morning. MVFR CIGs will then move in from the north behind a frontal boundary expected to clear the area by sunrise. Strong winds will develop behind this boundary through the late morning into the early afternoon with the strongest gusts expected at ONL and BBW where they will approach 40 knots out of the north- northwest. Gusts will remain below 35 knots at LBF and 30 knots at VTN before subsiding by late afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Jurgensen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 404 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020 WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow into the northern Great Lakes and troughing over the wrn CONUS downstream from a ridge over the northeast Pacific. A weak upstream shrtwv over northeast MN supported an area of clouds and a few flurries. A stronger shrtwv that will impact weather across the region Sunday was moving through Wyoming. Otherwise, skies were clearing across most of Upper Michigan with increasing sw winds ahead of a weak trough over nw MN. Tonight, ridging across the area should result in dry conditions. After a period of clear to partly cloudy skies this evening, increasing moisture/isentropic ascent ahead of the next system approaching from the northern Plains will bringing increasing/thickening clouds. Expect enough radiational cooling interior west for temps to fall to near zero while readings remain in the 10 to 15 range closer to the Great Lakes. Sunday, Snow will spread across Upper Michigan with moderate to strong 280k-290k lift and 700-300 qvector conv associated with shrtwv emerging from the Plains. Decent moisture inflow along with 2g/Kg moisture available is consistent with about 0.4 inch consensus/WPC QPF forecast into mainly the far south. With a fairly elevated DGZ, 15/1 SLR values will support 3 to 6 inch snow amounts along and south of US-2 with the highest amount near KMNM. Farther north, from KIWD to KMQT to KERY amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range are expected. There is still the potential for slightly higher amounts far south, given a few high res models that show QPF at or slightly above 0.5 inch. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020 At the start of this long-term period, models continue to suggest broad positive height anomalies off the west coast over the Pacific Ocean. Downstream, a 500mb trough digs south towards Baja and lingers there for roughly 36 hours, slowly moving eastward through AZ, NM, and into the Texas Panhandle by Wednesday. Downstream of the Pacific Ridge, troffing remains as models suggest the passage of a few shortwaves through the Great Lakes area through the end of next week. Temperatures through this stretch will stay near normal for the first half with cooler air pushing into the region on Wednesday into Friday. Sunday night into Monday, the advertised shortwave will be across eastern UP and continuing to the east out the the cwa. Between 00- 06Z Monday, there will be up to another inch of snow falling across eastern Upper Michigan. Behind this wave, a drier airmass moves in as 850mb temps remain near -8C. This is a little on the warm side for much LES to develop, but with developing SW winds, may see some sunshine Monday afternoon. The next shortwave will then move through Upper Michigan on Tuesday morning. Winds do become more W to NW behind this shortwave; however, 850mb temps are still progged to be near -12C which remains near the threshold for any LES development. With that, have continued the trend with the going forecast and left chance PoPs for LES in the WNW wind snow belts Monday night through mid-Tuesday afternoon. At this juncture, doesn`t look like anything significant, but with a passing shortwave and sfc trof there could be some enhanced totals. This shortwave moves east by Wednesday as model differences begin. GFS/GEM are in general agreement for timing for colder air moving into Upper Michigan, but EC is slower then the two. GEFS also remains a little slower than the deterministic models as well, so something to keep an eye on. The general idea of medium range models are to become cooler on Wednesday, but the timing remains uncertain. Deterministic GFS becomes cold enough for LES development by 12Z Wednesday, with the EC showing SW flow and WAA during this time frame. Between 00 and 06Z Thursday, EC shows colder air moving in to the region and GFS and GEM show 850mb temps already near -21C. Heading into Thursday afternoon and Friday evening, 850mb temps remain cold enough for LES development, but the wind field of the models show decent discrepancies. Interactions with a suggested high pressure system may bring a break from any LES chances as wind is calm or shows lingering directional shear. During this time frame, the shortwave through the desert SW mentioned earlier begins to lift through the Ohio River Valley. The EC keeps the developing low pressure system further north, which leaves a tighter gradient for LES to develop on. As the GEM/GFS show this low to traverse through Dixie Alley, the pressure gradient relaxes and creates a lull for LEs chances. Overall, I kept some of the going forecast PoPs given dprog/dt trends, but blended these back into the NBM given the discrepancies. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 528 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020 VFR conditions will give way to increasing clouds and light snow by late Sunday morning dropping conditions to IFR with the potential for LIFR vsby. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 404 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020 Expect SW at 15-25 knots tonight ahead of the next approaching system from the Northern Plains. A lull in the winds then reemerges Sunday before ramping back up on Monday to SW winds of 15-25 knots ahead of another system from the northern Plains. Some winds could approach 30 knots over the west half Mon afternoon into evening. The strongest winds of the week look to be out of the southwest Tue night into early Wed ahead of vigorous clipper system diving through south central Canada. Southwest winds could approach mininal gales across the west and north central portions of Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Sunday for MIZ011>014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will stall just south of Long Island by daybreak. The front then returns north as a warm front Sunday. A cold front then approaches the region from the west Sunday night and passes across the area on Monday. The front then stalls just south of the area on Tuesday. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday before another frontal system may impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Drier air is filtering in across the interior late this evening behind a cold front pushing south across the area. Latest HRRR and NAMNest don`t show the cold front getting too far south of Long Island by daybreak. Some low-level moisture pooling along the boundary could become a concern especially as the flow becomes easterly through the night. Dew point spreads are forecast to be large enough to inhibit black ice at this time, however, this will need to be watched carefully. Temperatures tonight will be in the 20s with low 30s across the NYC Metro Area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A shortwave in the mid levels moves across Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure moves northeast of the region and eventually off into the Northern Atlantic. The flow will become more southerly eventually on Sunday as the frontal boundary south of the region returns north as a warm front. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches the area Sunday night into Monday with POPs gradually increasing through this time period. Temperatures will be warm enough at the coast for rain, however a some snow or a rain/snow mix is likely across inland locations Sunday night. During the day Monday, as temperatures warm, the precipitation is expected to become rain everywhere. The front settles to the south of the region and stalls. A few weak waves of low pressure may ride along the front passing south through Tuesday. Will keep at least some chance or slight chance POPs in the forecast through Tuesday night to account for this. High pressure then builds into the area Wednesday followed by another frontal boundary and wave of low pressure Thursday. Another high builds Friday, ushering in colder air. There continues to be differences in the global models during the late week period. As a result, low confidence in forecast details remain for this period. Temperatures average above normal much of the week, until late week behind the next front and building Canadian high pressure. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front passes south of the area overnight as high pressure passes across New England. The high moves offshore Sunday, with the front returning north as a warm front. Light and variable winds will become N-NE this evening at less than 5 kt, then E toward daybreak. Winds then shift to towards the SE-S at 5-10 kt by Sunday afternoon. VFR through tonight. Isolated flurries cannot be ruled out early this evening. An isolated snow shower with localized MVFR is possible Sunday morning. mainly north and west of the NYC metro. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday Afternoon....VFR. .Sunday Night-Monday...VFR early then MVFR or lower. Rain and Snow mix likely inland early Monday AM changing to rain thereafter. Rain likely near the coast. SW Gusts 15-20 kt near the coast Monday. .Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in chance wintry mix inland and rain near the coast. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in chance wintry mix inland and rain near the coast. && .MARINE... SCA has been discontinued across the ocean waters as light winds have allowed seas to subside quicker than forecast. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for all waters Sunday. Southerly winds increase Sunday with SCA conditions possible by daybreak on the ocean waters. Gusty SW winds Monday will reach 25-30 kt over the ocean waters, with slightly lighter gusts on the non- ocean waters. As a result, expect seas to build on the ocean waters to 5 ft. Winds shift to the North, then East and diminish as the front passes, and remains just south of the waters Tuesday. As a wave of low pressure passes to the south, then east, winds shift back to the W/NW and increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the next chance of small craft conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW