Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/09/20
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
932 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Latest Bowman radar shows reflectivities slowly decreasing with
time, but light snow will continue for a few more hours at least.
The Department of Transportation has issued a No Travel Advised
for southwestern North Dakota which includes the cities of Marmarth,
Bowman, Hettinger and surrounding areas due to snow creating near
zero visibilities. An area of heavy snowfall estimated between 8
and 10 inches was reported by the public approximately 17 miles
southwest of Rhame in Bowman County. This location is in far
southwest Bowman County. We talked to spotters around that highest
snowfall total and so far we have snowfall amounts ranging from 4
inches from just west of Marmarth in Slope county, to 5 inches at
Mud Buttes in Bowman County. One to 1.5 inches of snowfall have
been reported from Hettinger to Reeder in Adams County, to 3
inches in Bowman/Bowman County. Will continue with the winter
weather advisory and let the midnight shift re-evaluate the
ongoing snow in the next update. Expecting the snow to wane more
aggressively from now through midnight as the best forcing,
frontogenesis, and heavy banding of snow has now shifted into
north central and northeast South Dakota. Reflectivities are
skirting the southern border across far south central ND as some
of the snow from South Dakota pivots north.
Otherwise, an elongated 500mb shortwave was located over northern
North Dakota. RAP BUFKIT soundings show enough Omega/upward vertical
motion occurring in a nearly saturated low level layer. Reflectivities
have been steadily increasing between Minot and Bismarck, and
feel that a period of light snow and/or flurries will be the most
likely outcome overnight. Have mentioned this in the gridded data,
especially with stratus becoming more widespread overnight.
UPDATE Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Latest Bowman Radar, southwest webcams, and the North Dakota
Department of Transportation Travel Information Map confirms light
snow/snow covered roads in southwest North Dakota. Essentially
along and south of a line from Beach to Medora and into Amidon
through Hettinger. The deterministic GFS/Fv3 core is initializing
the best with the current radar and surface observations. The GFS
Heavy Banded Snow procedure is doing well with the precipitation
not only in the southwest, but farther north into Beach where a
lobe of low level frontogenesis is advertised this evening. We
will continue to see the snow fester in the southwest through 03z,
then from 03z-06z, the dynamics and overall heavy banded snow
elements will shift away from southwest North Dakota and become
more focused over south central South Dakota. This is in line with
the progression of the 700mb low from western South Dakota into
central South Dakota this evening. In doing so, will have to watch
conditions near/along the ND/SD border this evening for any
northward progression/development from South Dakota. Right now,
the current forecast looks good.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Snow accumulations in far southwest ND are the main forecast issue
in the short term period.
Model trended south with the band of snow across far southwest ND
this morning and have remained situated mainly from Bowman County
south into South Dakota, then east along the ND/SD border but
dropping farther south as you move into the central Dakotas. The
current advisory looks good with Bowman county well within the 3-5
inch criteria, and mainly the southwest half of Slope and Adams
Counties within advisory criteria, but with a tight gradient to
mainly a half inch to an inch over the northeast portions of these
counties.
As far as banding potential goes, will still have to monitor, but
at this time the potential seems to have diminished. Currently the
Bowman radar shows an area of light to moderate snow mainly along
and south of Highway 12 from Marmarth to just west of Hettinger.
This area will be within the strongest Synoptic scale ascent
through the remainder of the afternoon and early this evening as
the mid and upper level trough moves through. The track of the 70H
low will be favorable for heavier snow accumulations within the
advisory area. This will also be a time of steepest lapse rates
and mid level fg forcing. This supports some higher snow amounts,
especially during the hours of max heating this afternoon.
However, the better potential for banded precipitation will lie
farther to the south, from northwest into east central South
Dakota, from this afternoon through around midnight. This is
where you see a strong 2d FG circulation, congruent with negative
EPV and even steeper lapse rates. Some of the mesoscale models
(ARW,NMM) and the 18Z NAM are still flirting with warning criteria
snowfall amounts over southwest Bowman county, and this could
certainly come to fruition, but overall, this will be over only a
small portion of the county, with most of the county in advisory
criteria.
Any accumulating snow should be out of the area shortly after
midnight, if not before. We may see a little drifting snow or
patchy blowing snow into the early overnight hours. Will leave the
advisory going through 12Z for now and let the evening/overnight
shift revisit for possible shortening of the hazard.
Northerly flow behind the exiting system Sunday morning quickly
becomes west to southwest during the day, ahead of the next
shortwave trough that pushes into the northwest by Sunday evening.
Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
The long term period will consist of a northwest flow pattern with
occasional clipper tracking across the Northern Plains, each
bringing a chance of precipitation. Models are in reasonable
agreement with the first clipper bringing a chance of light snow
across the forecast area late Sunday night and Monday.
Models diverge with the next mid-week clipper as the GFS farther
east with the cold air behind the cold front. Overall we expect a
better chance of snow across the forecast area with this system,
but amounts remain on the light side. The ECMWF is much colder
over the forecast area behind the clipper, while the GFS keeps the
coldest air shunted off to the east. After this system, the ECMWF
warms up late in the work week and into next weekend, while the
GFS holds off on bringing the coldest air into the region until
the weekend. At this time none of the clipper systems appear to be
rather quick moving, with low a low probability of heavy snow
accumulations. And with such deterministic model disagreement and
a large envelope of solutions depicted by the GEFS, see no reason
to stray from the model blend of solutions at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Expect deteriorating ceilings tonight, then improving ceilings
12z-21z Sunday. Light snow is expected for a couple hours at KDIK
this evening, 02z-04z, as an exiting low pressure moves into
south central South Dakota. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs from southern
Canada into northern North Dakota will progress south tonight and
become more widespread as low level winds switch from easterly to
northeast and then northerly. Cigs will lift to VFR at all terminals
between 18z-21z Sunday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NDZ040-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
618 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020/
Through Sunday.
A weak surface front has pushed into far southeast Alabama. A few
light showers will continue across Pike and Barbour counties through
4 pm. Skies have cleared quickly west of the surface front, with
clearing expected for the remaining counties across east Alabama by
sunset. A sfc high will slide eastward across Alabama overnight and
be centered over Georgia by Sunday morning. The combination of light
winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall quickly this
evening. With clouds and rain covering much of east Alabama today,
conditions look favorable for the formation of fog. Models show the
lowest visibilities along and south of the I-85 corridor. This may
be where the left over surface boundary is located after the flow
becomes easterly. Confidence in widespread fog has decreased now
that the latest RAP model is showing a stronger low level easterly
flow. Higher boundary layer winds would favor low clouds over fog.
Visibilities below 1 mile have been included in the the Hazardous
Weather Outlook.
58/rose
.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0310 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020/
/Extended rainy period with associated flood risk; rain totals
maximized near I-20, totaling ~5-7 inches; ~3-5 inches between
I-20 & I-85/
*Interests across Central Alabama are urged to monitor forecasts
and be prepared to take protective action should flooding develop
in their area.
Monday through Tuesday.
On Monday morning, a front will be inbound from the northwest while
a subtle subtropical impulse moves eastbound over Texas, ahead of a
digging upper trough over southern California that`ll pass by on
Thursday. Global model solutions show this lead impulse running
atop the front later in the day, aiding in increasing rainfall
rates as the front moves into a plume of anomalously high
precipitable water (for this time of year). The front is expected
to slow & then stall across Central Alabama Monday afternoon/evening,
serving as a focus for training rainfall into Tuesday. Forecast
soundings show a deeply saturated column, with a varied presence
of tall & skinny CAPE, which would tend to aid in rainfall
efficiency given the low- and upper-level features; thus,
instances of heavy rainfall are apparent.
Rain totals during this first wave (Monday into Tuesday) are
expected to be highest north of Interstate-85, offering much of
Central Alabama a window to rack up around 2-4 inches of rain
(locally higher). This is supported by EURO/GFS ensembles &
probabilities. Climate sites along the Interstate 20 corridor are
between 1.5-2x average rain totals year to date. Having also just
gone through a fairly wet episode a few days prior, flooding
issues resulting from currently forecast amounts are probable.
Threat confidence will be raised to a 4 in the hazardous weather
outlook (focused north of Interstate 85 at this time).
Guidance continues to (generally) suggest a relative downswing in
rainfall activity Tuesday afternoon & night (not steady & heavy as
before), but we should still have spells of rain showers as frontal
overrunning persists. We`ll have to closely watch the evolution of
the front`s position in modeling as any southward error could open
the door for a bit more in the way of rain than currently
indicated.
Wednesday through Thursday.
After pivoting over the Southwest U.S., the large-scale trough will
be in an eastward trajectory on Wednesday. A surface low is forecast
to develop upstream along the existing baroclinic zone. Spells of
rain showers should be the theme through the day as we await the
next round of widespread, steady & heavier rain associated with a
cold front.
Late Wednesday into Thursday will hold the second and final bout of
organized rain that`ll support a renewed flood threat. This will
be especially so for locations that are soaked from the early-week
round of rain. Current guidance suggests the primary focus for
the heaviest totals could once again be either side of Interstate
20 at around an additional 2-3 inches (possibly locally higher).
Threat confidence will be introduced at a 3 for this time frame in
the hazardous weather outlook.
Friday.
Deterministic & most EURO/GFS ensembles show dry weather for Friday
as the cold front moves east, though a few show a slower exiting
time and suggests some lingering showers (will maintain a slight
chance for now, mainly southeast areas).
89^GSatterwhite
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.
Other than a few clouds across extreme southeast Central Alabama,
skies are clear this evening with a mix of calm winds and light
winds from the northwest. There is still a southerly wind at TOI and
LSF, with dewpoints in the 40s as far north as ALX. With elevated
surface moisture, expect fog to develop overnight, confined to
eastern locations. Surface and boundary layers increase before
sunrise, and could see a mix of fog and low stratus clouds across
the far south and east. Vsbys below 3 miles are possible, with LIFR
conditions possible at KTOI, closer to the stalling frontal
boundary.
Conditions improve after 13z with VFR conds by 15z. Winds will
increase from the southeast at 8-10kts through Sunday morning.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Light rain will spread across Central AL this morning, but will
generally be lower amounts. Skies will begin to clear from west to
east this afternoon with high pressure building into the region
tonight and Sunday. Next week will be very wet with periods of
heavy rainfall.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 29 60 46 64 53 / 0 0 20 90 100
Anniston 31 61 46 66 56 / 0 0 10 90 100
Birmingham 34 63 51 66 57 / 0 0 20 90 100
Tuscaloosa 36 66 53 69 57 / 0 0 30 90 100
Calera 34 63 50 67 58 / 0 0 20 90 100
Auburn 35 59 46 68 60 / 10 0 10 70 90
Montgomery 37 66 49 72 62 / 10 0 10 70 80
Troy 35 66 49 72 62 / 10 0 10 50 60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
550 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...Still VFR conditions this afternoon with broken to
overcast multilayered low clouds and moderate to breezy southeast
winds. HRRR depicts Gulf moisture continuing to move inland
tonight on moderate southeast winds. Ceilings will lower to MVFR
after midnight. Winds will become strong southeast on Sunday, that
is breezy to windy and gusty, courtesy of interaction between
Gulf high pressure and lower Plains pressure. Ceilings will be
MVFR most of the day Sunday, though afternoon winds may be strong
enough to very briefly mix ceilings to VFR. An isolated shower
will be possible.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Cumulus field build in
nicely late this morning and early afternoon, thickest across the
lower RGV. KBRO radar shows weak echos of light precipitation trying
to make its way across the border from Mexico. A few light showers
will be possible through the rest of the afternoon and into this
evening, but very light to no accumulations are expected.
Temperatures have warmed up into the upper 70s and lower 80s this
afternoon. The cloud cover should keep temperatures from rising much
more than a degree or two over the next couple of hours. A very warm
and humid night is expected as low level moisture/clouds continue to
advect in from the south/southeast. Low temps will only bottom out
in the mid-upper 60s across the CWA.
A weak mid/upper level shortwave trough will approach Southern Texas
overnight tonight, increasing chances of light streamer showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two on Sunday, as instability
increases. The highest chances of precipitation will be across the
Northern Ranchlands. The other main story on Sunday will be a
drastic increase in wind speeds starting mid-late Sunday morning.
Models are in fair agreement that 925mb wind speeds will increase to
35 to 40 knots overnight tonight and into early Sunday morning.
There are still some questions as to how much mixing will occur with
diurnal heating as overcast skies are expected to continue into
Sunday and a stout 850mb inversion remains in place. However,
guidance has been persistent showing very breezy to strong winds,
especially across the lower RGV through the afternoon Sunday. A Wind
Advisory may be needed, highest confidence for Cameron and Willacy
Counties, tomorrow as sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts
around 40 mph, will be possible.
Although skies will remain cloudy or mostly cloudy, highs on Sunday
will still reach the lower-mid 80s, with mid-upper 70s along the
coast. Very warm and humid conditions will continue into Sunday
night, with lows only dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s by
sunrise Monday.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday):A longwave trough develops
over the Rockies and Central Plains by Wednesday of next week as
a mid-level trough from Canada and a Baja closed low combine. This
will bring in our next cold front late Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. Models beginning to show some better agreement with the
strength and some what on the timing of these features. Confidence
remains below average but is inching upwards as the models come
in line again.
Increasing moisture, above normal temperatures along with wind
will be featured Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure trough
develops to our west. Rain chances will be limited Monday and
Tuesday to a few showers as the moisture steadily deepens. The
front is depicted by the EC/GFS and Canadian to move through the
CWA Tuesday night and off the lower coast Wednesday around or a
few hours shortly after sunrise. This may allow for temperatures
to fall through the morning hours with limited recovery Wed
afternoon especially for the Lower RGV. Model guidance and raw
temperatures are trending cooler (once again) so will trend in
this direction for Wednesday as well as Thursday with CAA and a
steady north wind persisting. Best rain chances develop as the
front pushes through with latest model trends favoring chance to
likely pops. With a bit faster forward pace of the front and the
mid level trough will trend lowering pops west to east Wednesday.
Sprawling cold surface ridging from the Great Lakes to the Deep
South takes over Thursday through Saturday. Deep South Texas will
reside on the west side of the cold ridge so we can expect an
increase in clouds and a slight warming trend for late next week
and into next weekend. Rain chances Thu and Fri close to nil but a
bump in moisture Saturday may provide isolated showers.
MARINE:(Now through Sunday Night): A tightening pressure gradient
will increase low level winds tonight for the offshore Gulf waters
(20-60 nm). SCEC conditions will transition to SCA conditions by
midnight tonight for the offshore waters. Winds will increase and
seas will build across the nearshore waters by Sunday morning. A
Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed for the Laguna Madre
on Sunday morning, as well. Adverse marine conditions will continue
through much of the remainder of the short term period, with more
favorable marine conditions expected by late Sunday night.
Pressure gradient over the Lower Texas coast remains moderate to
strong through Tuesday morning as a broad mid-level trough
becomes established over the Rockies and Central Plains. Cold
front surges offshore early Wednesday with moderate to strong
northerly winds through at least Thursday morning. An extended
period of exercise caution or small craft advisories are expected
for all or portions of the coastal waters much of next week.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/60
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
934 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and a few lingering snow showers this morning will decrease
in areal coverage later this morning as high pressure builds into
the North Country today. Most areas should see some sunshine by this
afternoon...but below normal temperatures will be the rule for today
and tonight. A slow warming trend will start on Sunday along with
the possibility of a few snow showers in the afternoon. Better
chances for snow and minor accumulations will come later Sunday
night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 926 PM EST Saturday...1031mb high pres centered over KMSS
is providing our cwa with clear skies and light winds, combined
with fresh snow pack is resulting in temps free falling this
evening. Have updated to chase hrly obs and drop temps across
portions of the cwa by another 1 to 3 degrees. Temps as of 9 PM
are -17F OGS, -15F SLK/Edwards/Ellenburg, and -13F MSS and
Potsdam. Meanwhile in VT East Berkshire is -19F, Lake Eden and
Island Pond -13F, and -11F at Lake Elmore and Newport. Lows will
range from -5F lower CT river valley to -25F SLV/Western Dacks
and northern VT, with localized areas near -30F possible given
crnt trends.
Previous discussion below:
It`ll be clear and cold tonight as high pressure builds
directly over the region. Light winds, clear skies, and fresh
snowpack will make for optimal radiational cooling. Hence expect
everyone will drop below zero tonight, with the usual cold
spots in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks in the teens to
around 20 below. Clouds increase tomorrow ahead of low pressure
approaching from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Warm advection
will develop across the region as the low draws closer,
eventually lifting into the St Lawrence Valley late Sunday
night. Sunday will be much warmer than today as a result, with
highs in the mid to upper 20s. Precipitation will spread into
southern sections late Sunday afternoon, but bulk of
precipitation will hold off until overnight Sunday night when it
will spread northward on the nose of a strong southwest jet.
Temperatures will fall a bit early, then hold steady or even
rise overnight as warm air advection increases, but they will
remain cold enough for the precipitation to fall as all snow.
The heaviest/steadiest snow will occur after midnight; overnight
totals will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EST Saturday...For Monday, a clipper low will track near
the region with the upper vort max advecting into the region around
the same time. Widespread snow should take place with modest forcing
from the a band of deformation with a weak thermal with some good
warm, moist advection in the boundary layer. Low-level convergence
is not all that impressive, so the best forcing will come from
upslope snow. Down in the Champlain Valley, terrain shadowing from a
35-40 knot jet will keep our chances for precipitation a bit lower.
Warm advection will warm many areas into the mid 30s with upper 30s
in the Champlain and southern Connecticut River Valley. Snow levels
will raise up to 500 to 1500ft agl, generally higher south. Surface
high and height rises should quickly scour out moisture with our
relatively unblocked flow. Overnight lows will fall into the upper
teens to mid 20s. Some mixed signals for radiational cooling
potential as upper clouds should start streaming north. So Monday
night temps could be modified in future updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 PM EST Saturday...The synoptic pattern will be influenced
by a cut-off low in the Southwestern US. As it ambles eastward, it
will find strong thickness packing along the mid-South.
Strengthening southerly return flow will keep a steady stream of
precipitation ahead of this upper low. The question becomes how
convection associated with the feature impacts downstream ridging
with models showing varying solutions beyond Wednesday. The GFS
offers a flatter wave pattern with strong high pressure over Canada
ensuring that steady stream of moisture stays to our south as the
upper low only slowly moves east. The EC favors a slowly amplifying
upper ridge, allowing the decaying upper low to traverse nearer to
us and briefly push the stream of moisture over us towards the later
portion of next week. Ensemble forecasts do not paint a clear
picture yet as to what exactly will happen with that.
So for the sensible weather over the North Country, a northern
stream shortwave will pass through with an attendant surface low
well to our north pushing a cold front south. Above normal
temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday trending towards
seasonal norms as the cold front descends south Wednesday night with
a chance for snow showers. Either a weak low quickly slides to our
south and leaves us dry, or a stronger low travels northeast from
the Ohio River Valley and gives us greater precipitation chances.
Could see it going either way. Without clear consensus for the later
half of next week, at least indicated slight chance to chance PoPs
(20%-40%) as medium range guidance mulls it over.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Predominately VFR through the TAF period,
with local MVFR ceilings possible at KRUT after 20z Sunday.
Overnight, skies should remain mostly clear as high pressure
crests overhead. Soundings indicate rather dry airmass in
place, however high-res models, including NAM & RAP show sharp
low level inversion developing therefore thinking the potential
exists for some local fog development. Thinking best chance
will be at KBTV given arctic airmass and generally light
east/southeast winds. Have included mention of VCFG after 08z at
both KBTV & KSLK for potential low visibilities. Any fog that
does develop will dissipate by 14z. A warm front will creep
northward late tomorrow afternoon. Associated with this, low
clouds will increase from the southwest after 18z. Ceilings will
largely remain VFR however, MVFR ceilings ~2900ft may be
possible at KRUT. Winds should remain generally light and
variable overnight becoming southerly after 14z, between 5-7 kt.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance
RA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...LaRocca
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1040 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will move east of the area overnight with
a dry surface ridge building into the region for Sunday then
move off the coast Monday. Moisture will again begin to
increase in the southerly flow on the backside of the offshore
high and ahead of a frontal system Monday. The front and
associated high moisture are forecast to be in the region
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Upper level trough currently moving east of the forecast area
will move offshore over the next couple of hours with drier air
beginning to filter in late tonight. Main concern overnight will
be fog potential as low level moisture is high and winds will be
light and variable. As such expect fog to developing during the
early morning hours and become widespread toward daybreak.
Temperatures overnight will be in the low 30s for much of the
area with mid 30s in the far eastern Midlands. Although moisture
will remain on area roads ground temperatures are well above
freezing so do not expect any issues.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The models show surface high pressure ridging into the forecast
area through Sunday night. Moisture should increase in a
southerly flow on the backside of offshore high pressure and
ahead of a cold front Monday. Moisture should become deep closer
to the front Monday night. A model blend supports chance pops
mainly in the west part Monday and likely or categorical pops
Monday night and Tuesday. Warming and moisture advection
associated with a strong h85 jet may support just enough
instability for thunderstorms late Monday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal system may linger in the region Wednesday and
Thursday. There may be increased moisture associated with an
area of low pressure Thursday. The models are in poor agreement
with the placement of this low. We followed a model blend for
the pop forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog/stratus restrictions expected tonight into early Sunday
morning all terminals except OGB.
Upper disturbance continues to move through the region and
low VFR cigs have cleared out. However, further to the west
where light rain and some snow occurred widespread LIFR
restrictions have developed and satellite imagery showing the
area is expanding eastward. HRRR has a good handle on current
situation and shows the LIFR cigs and some MVFR vsbys moving
over the terminals by 06z and remaining in place through 14-15z.
Updated forecast to account for worse conditions bringing in
LIFR cigs all terminals except OGB by 06z. Vsbys are less
certain as some locations to the west had vsbys less than 1SM
but have since risen to MVFR and think that may be the case for
the terminals as well so forecasting more optimistic vsbys. After
morning fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected Sunday
afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A series of weather systems will
provide a chance of showers and associated restrictions at times
late Monday through Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Runoff from the recent heavy rainfall event is resulting in
moderate to major flooding on all area river forecast points.
Please stay abreast of the latest river stage forecasts on our
webpage at weather.gov/cae.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
912 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the region later this afternoon and
crest over the area Sunday. Low pressure will track across the
region on Monday. High pressure will build over the area
Tuesday. Low pressure will track south of the area Wednesday
with high pressure moving in from the west on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
910pm Update...
Only change was to slow down the rate of temperature falls
tonight. A few places beginning to decouple, but most places
still have a light breeze with limited decoupling. Expect this
to change as high pressure builds in tonight, with temperatures
falling significantly especially after midnight.
Previous Discussion...
Much more tranquil for this term, but cold.
For tonight...the upper trof moving through the region this
afternoon which was picked up well by the NAM and RAP will be
east of the region later this evening. Flurry/snow showers will
be ending as the wnw flow begins to weaken. Best llvl convergence
associated w/the activity across the nne will also be weakening
this evening. High pres to the sw is expected slide across srn
New England overnight. Winds will be dropping off and skies will
be clearing. Cold airmass in place and w/light winds and
clearing skies, will allow for some very cold temps overnight.
NAM/RAP soundings indicate an inversion developing by early
Sunday morning w/some weak WAA aloft. Cold air right at the sfc
will be trapped leading to further cooling. Expecting overnight
lows to go below zero all the way to the coast. Some valley
locations across the St. John Valley and the Allagash region
could see temps by daybreak Sunday -25 to -30F.
High pres will slide off the east into the Gulf of Maine on
Sunday. A light southerly flow around the backside of the high
will allow a slight recovery in the airmass, but still cold for
February. Despite the slight moderation in the airmass, daytime
temps will be below normal. Upper flow looks to be near zonal
offsetting the warming some. Clouds will be apchg from the west
later in the day ahead of a low pres system moving out of the
Great Lakes region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm air advection towards the surface will be ongoing across
Maine as low pressure exits east of Michigans lower
peninsula. Associated precipitation will begin to overspread the
area first Downeast and along the coast into central and
northern areas through the early morning hours. Snow can be
expected during onset across all areas, with rain mixing in
across portions of coastal and interior Downeast. This
transition will be caused by the warming lower levels, with
little warming of the mid levels to create a wintry mix. Light
precip will last over much of the region through the day,
tapering in the late afternoon.
Little amplification of the shortwave is anticipated, however
the surface low generates a good warm push, which packs together
pot temp contours at 700mb. This could hint at a (weakening)
localized band of enhanced forcing to create brief on and off
moderate precip rates ahead of the broad low. NAM has this
feature tracking through a Millinocket to Bridgewater line, but
this small of a feature will require consistency in both space
and time to confidently show in the QPF forecast. Overall, light
accumulations will be possible with totals approaching 4 inches
towards the eastern international border around Houlton and
Danforth.
High pressure follows Monday night into Tuesday morning with dry
conditions. Low pressure is set to tracks south of Maine
Tuesday, with the chance of some rain and snow showers through
Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure again builds in behind for Wednesday and Wednesday
night with dry conditions. NW winds across the crown of Maine
will bring cooler temperatures overnight, with lows creeping
into the single digits. Some moisture and clouds will be in the
vicinity, keeping temperatures from falling too much. This
isnt the case Thursday night, as the high tracks closer.
Guidance converges at this point, with the ECMWF bringing a
large system into New England, and the Canadian and GFS
remaining dry. Kept PoPs low at this point, but will need to
watch trends in ensembles to improve forecast confidence. Large
high pressure will move into the eastern CONUS by next weekend,
with some dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight into Sunday. WNW 10-15 mph will be
dropping off to less than 7 mph later this evening. Wind will
shift around to the S on Sunday w/speeds 5 to 10 mph.
SHORT TERM:
Sun night-Mon: Becoming MVFR/IFR in light snow Sun night at BHB
and BGR in the evening and after midnight across northern
terminals. S 5-10kts becoming WSW in the afternoon. Snow will
change to rain at BHB and BGR.
Mon night-Tue...Conditions improve to VFR Mon night for Downeast
terminals and Tue afternoon for northern sites. W 5kts Mon night
becoming light S Tue.
Tue night-Wed: Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR Tue evening
through Wed in snow acrs the north and possible rain/snow mix
over Downeast.
Wed Night: VFR with MVFR moving in across the north with snow
showers amid SW/W winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NW winds 15 to 25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt early
this evening. Winds are just a bit stronger than forecast and
raised winds a few knots this evening. Seas are still running
high averaging 7-10 ft away from the immediate coast. Seas will
continue to drop off w/the offshore winds, and thinking is that
heights will still be AOA 6 ft overnight. Decided to keep SCA
going and extended it until 4AM Sunday given the continued
swell. It looks like seas will be dropping below 6 ft after 4 AM
and continue this trend into Sunday. Some light freezing spray
tonight as well. Light winds will become SW and increase to
10-15 kt later in the day.
SHORT TERM: SCA will be needed late Sunday night as winds and
waves increase ahead of low pressure exiting New England through
Monday. Conditions begin to improve below SCA Monday night.
Another SCA may be needed late Tuesday night into Wednesday
night as winds and waves again increase with a passing
disturbance.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Hewitt
Short Term...Cornwell
Long Term...Cornwell
Aviation...Foisy/Hewitt/Cornwell
Marine...Foisy/Hewitt/Cornwell
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
412 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020
Early afternoon WV/IR imagery showed the upper level shortwave
trough to affect the CWA moving through MT toward northern WY.
The regional surface analysis placed a low pressure center over
east-central WY, a quasi-stationary front from southeast MT through
northeast WY, the NE Panhandle into western KS. A cold front was
moving into western WY. The pressure gradient was tightest across
central/eastern WY, with strongest west to southwest winds occurring
across the central Laramie Range into Platte County. Peak gusts
recorded thus far were 59 MPH at Bordeaux and 60 MPH at Coleman.
The High Wind Warning for WY Zone 106 remains in effect until 5 PM
MST. Recently cancelled the High Wind Warning for the South Laramie
Range Foothills as wind gusts have struggled to rise above 45 MPH.
Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow continue through late
this afternoon for WY Zones 110/116 (North Snowy Range Foothills/South
Laramie Range).
Snow showers were developing over western/central WY and western
SD. As the front approaches late this afternoon, the HRRR continues
its depiction of narrow snow band moving east-southeast along the
I-80 corridor in southeast WY. Additional snow showers will spread
east across east-central WY and the northern NE Panhandle through
this evening. Accumulations will range from an inch or less lower
elevations, to 3 to 6 inches above 8500 feet.
Snow showers will taper off for lower elevations Sunday morning,
but linger over higher elevations through the afternoon. Another
inch of snow is possible. After highs in the 40s and lower 50s
Saturday afternoon, it will be 20-25 degrees colder with 700mb
temperatures falling to -14 to -18C. Low temperatures Sunday night
drop into the single digits to lower teens. Below zero temperatures
will be relegated to the more sheltered valleys west of I-25.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020
Split flow regime continues with closed low over northern Baja CA
Monday ejecting northeast across the southern Rockies Tuesday,
transitioning to an open wave by Wednesday. An active northwest
flow aloft will dominate the CWA through mid-week, becoming near
zonal ahead of another shortwave trough Friday. Temperatures during
the week will continue to average below seasonal normals as a couple
Alberta clippers usher in brief intrusions of Canadian air, along with
some snow showers. Significant accumulations are not expected, however
the higher elevations will receive at least a few inches. The potential
for strong winds returns mid-to-late week with elevated 700/850mb
CAG-CPR and CAG-BRX height gradients and 45-55kt 700-800mb flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 412 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020
VFR expected at the terminals this evening though there will be some
snow showers over mainly southeast WY. Cold front will move across
the area later this evening switching winds out of a northerly
direction with MVFR/IFR cigs developing over most areas mostly
after 06Z with low cigs continuing for much of the day Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2020
Recent snow pack, cold temperatures, non-critical humidities and
periodic chances for more precipitation will preclude fire weather
concerns through much of next week.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ110-
116.
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
925 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Evolution of the precipitation this evening has been rapid and
fairly in line with earlier forecast. Dynamically, a fairly open
mid-level wave will scoot out across SD during the overnight and
early Sunday morning hours, with a more closed feature which can
be seen on evening WV loop moving pretty much near to just north
of I-90. The leading warm advective/frontogenetic band is fairly
narrow at present, and has featured a period of 1/4 to 1/2sm
visibility, which is not surprising given the reservoir of weakly
negative EPV streaming over the boundary. Frontogenetic boundary
will reach a pivot point and stretch out across near the Highway
14 corridor for numerous hours into the last half of the night,
and this will likely feature some areas with snowfall rates of
1-2" per hour. If these remain stationary over an area, likely
narrow areas of snowfall amounts will be more of the 10-14" range,
which matches up well with the HREF probability matched mean.
Should note that much of the high res guidance is running a bit
slow on development and intensification. There is actually a bit
of convective instability in some of the forecast soundings over
the BKX/MML/MWM areas starting around 05z, so would not even be
surprised to get a rogue thundersnow event somewhere north and
east of KFSD. Areas to the south of this band are likely to get a
quick inch or little more, and this included the FSD area which
will see this start by around 930 pm.
In terms of changes, did add in two counties to the warning in
southwest MN (Murray and Cottonwood) based on the expected 5-9"
snowfall. Still some questions on areas south of existing advisory
with the amount of snowfall and the impact of the stronger winds
developing very late tonight into midday Sunday. May get a better
feel once have seen how much actual snowfall occurs, and if we get
some light freezing precip later tonight/early Sunday to crust
over the new snow. Still watching for mid-levels to dry out
somewhat to the south of the band later tonight, which will serve
to sharpen the southern boundary as well as bring a threat for a
brief period of freezing drizzle. However, impacts from any icing
would likely be minimal given the leading snowfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Complex forecast in the near term with low pressure system moving
through the area leading to a narrow but intense band of snow along
the highway 14 corridor. Conditions are expected to rapidly
deteriorate this evening as initial band of 700 mb frontogenesis
sweeps across the area. This band will pivot north with time, and
moderate to heavy precipitation is expected to fall along the
highway 14 corridor through the overnight. With strong
frontogenetic forcing lingering through the night, and negative
EPV*, expect to see 1+"/hr rates of snowfall through the overnight.
Further to the south, snowfall is a much tougher call as area
remains south of much of the forcing after the initial frontogenetic
band. Expect a very tight gradient of snowfall on the south side of
the snow band setting up north of I-90.
GFS model soundings are hinting at the potential for freezing
drizzle developing after 09Z Sunday morning across northwest Iowa as
the elevated dendritic layer dries out. NAM keeps deeper saturation
around through the morning, while the HRRR and RAP are a bit slower
than the GFS in drying the elevated dendritic layer. With strong
low level cold air advection leading to lift through the morning
hours, have expanded winter weather advisory across northwest Iowa
for the combination of snow, strong winds and potential for light
icing.
Speaking of the winds, strong low level cold air advection coupled
with strong pressure rises (near 7 mb/3hrs) behind the front will
aid in creating gusty winds through at least the morning hours on
Sunday. Have issued a wind advisory in the Missouri River Valley
for the gusty winds where strongest pressure rises are coupled with
cold air advection. Potential to expand either the wind advisory or
the winter weather advisory across the center part of the forecast
area (currently void of headlines) on Sunday morning depending on
the blowing snow potential. Blowing snow model suggests the
greatest potential for blowing snow will likely be as snow is
falling as snow liquid ratio will generally be in the 10-15:1 range
through the event.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Much quieter forecast in the extended with the first half of the
week expected to be dry with near seasonal temperatures. Upper
trough currently working south along the west coast gets caught
between the northern and southern branches of the jet, before
eventually being guided east by the southern branch of the jet. At
this point, there is growing confidence the mid week disturbance
will remain south of the forecast area; however, much cooler air
works south as the system shifts off to the east. Could see light
precipitation as the arctic boundary plunges south Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Cold air doesn`t stick around for long however as
strong southerly winds develop during the first half of next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Ceiling will be lowering this evening as a band of precipitation
develops across the area. The most widespread and significant
snowfall is expected along a KHON-KMWM line, where snowfall is
likely to reduce visibility to 1/2sm or less at times tonight.
Visibilities could be briefly low as the band passes over the
KFSD area in the developmental stage after 03z this evening, but
should set up mainly north, which could allow some drying aloft to
allow a chance for freezing drizzle late tonight into early Sunday
mainly near and south of I-90. Widespread MVFR ceilings likely
retain residence a bit longer into Sunday, with drying behind
allowing erosion from the north/northwest later in the afternoon.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for SDZ068>071.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for SDZ038>040.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for SDZ054>056.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for MNZ089-090-097-
098.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Sunday for MNZ071-072-080-
081.
IA...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for IAZ020-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for IAZ001>003-013-
014.
NE...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for NEZ013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Chapman
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...Chapman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
536 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
A strong Pacific cold moving thorugh the nrn Rockies this afternoon
will sweep through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight. The RAP, HRRR and
NAM indicate showers or sprinkles in the warm sector ahead of the
front.
The mix of Pacific and Canadian air will limit highs to the 20s and
30s Sunday. Strongest winds, during the morning hours, are across
ncntl Nebraska. Gusts to around 45 mph accompanied by a few snow
showers or rain or freezing rain showers are expected to develop.
The temperature forecast tonight leans on the deterministic model
blend. Bias correction was added to the model blend for Sunday`s
highs and Sunday night`s lows use the guidance blend plus bias
correction. The forecast lows Sunday night may be too warm by a few
degrees. The forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the
guidance which was several degrees cooler than the previous
forecast. The POP forecast uses the model blend.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
Three cold fronts drop through or back into wrn and ncntl Nebraska
in the extended forecast. None of them is advertising significant
precipitation and WPC suggested little or no rain or snow during
the next 7 days across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.
A reinforcing Pacific cold front moves through Monday followed
arctic back door cold fronts late Wednesday and next weekend. The
core of the arctic air in both cases will be moving through the
Upper Midwest. The arctic air across wrn and ncntl Nebraska is
expected to lower highs into the 20s and 30s. A cool down of about
10 degrees. Slight chances of snow are in place Wednesday and
Saturday. The forcing is weak and moisture modest.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020
VFR conditions will continue through the evening into early Sunday
morning. MVFR CIGs will then move in from the north behind a
frontal boundary expected to clear the area by sunrise. Strong
winds will develop behind this boundary through the late morning
into the early afternoon with the strongest gusts expected at
ONL and BBW where they will approach 40 knots out of the north-
northwest. Gusts will remain below 35 knots at LBF and 30 knots at
VTN before subsiding by late afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Jurgensen
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
528 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 404 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated wnw mid/upper level flow into
the northern Great Lakes and troughing over the wrn CONUS downstream
from a ridge over the northeast Pacific. A weak upstream shrtwv over
northeast MN supported an area of clouds and a few flurries. A
stronger shrtwv that will impact weather across the region Sunday
was moving through Wyoming. Otherwise, skies were clearing across
most of Upper Michigan with increasing sw winds ahead of a weak
trough over nw MN.
Tonight, ridging across the area should result in dry conditions.
After a period of clear to partly cloudy skies this evening,
increasing moisture/isentropic ascent ahead of the next system
approaching from the northern Plains will bringing
increasing/thickening clouds. Expect enough radiational cooling
interior west for temps to fall to near zero while readings remain
in the 10 to 15 range closer to the Great Lakes.
Sunday, Snow will spread across Upper Michigan with moderate to
strong 280k-290k lift and 700-300 qvector conv associated with
shrtwv emerging from the Plains. Decent moisture inflow along with
2g/Kg moisture available is consistent with about 0.4 inch
consensus/WPC QPF forecast into mainly the far south. With a
fairly elevated DGZ, 15/1 SLR values will support 3 to 6 inch snow
amounts along and south of US-2 with the highest amount near
KMNM. Farther north, from KIWD to KMQT to KERY amounts in the 1 to
2 inch range are expected. There is still the potential for
slightly higher amounts far south, given a few high res models
that show QPF at or slightly above 0.5 inch.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020
At the start of this long-term period, models continue to suggest
broad positive height anomalies off the west coast over the Pacific
Ocean. Downstream, a 500mb trough digs south towards Baja and
lingers there for roughly 36 hours, slowly moving eastward through
AZ, NM, and into the Texas Panhandle by Wednesday. Downstream of the
Pacific Ridge, troffing remains as models suggest the passage of a
few shortwaves through the Great Lakes area through the end of next
week. Temperatures through this stretch will stay near normal for
the first half with cooler air pushing into the region on Wednesday
into Friday.
Sunday night into Monday, the advertised shortwave will be across
eastern UP and continuing to the east out the the cwa. Between 00-
06Z Monday, there will be up to another inch of snow falling across
eastern Upper Michigan. Behind this wave, a drier airmass moves in
as 850mb temps remain near -8C. This is a little on the warm side
for much LES to develop, but with developing SW winds, may see some
sunshine Monday afternoon.
The next shortwave will then move through Upper Michigan on Tuesday
morning. Winds do become more W to NW behind this shortwave;
however, 850mb temps are still progged to be near -12C which remains
near the threshold for any LES development. With that, have
continued the trend with the going forecast and left chance PoPs for
LES in the WNW wind snow belts Monday night through mid-Tuesday
afternoon. At this juncture, doesn`t look like anything significant,
but with a passing shortwave and sfc trof there could be some
enhanced totals. This shortwave moves east by Wednesday as model
differences begin. GFS/GEM are in general agreement for timing for
colder air moving into Upper Michigan, but EC is slower then the
two. GEFS also remains a little slower than the deterministic models
as well, so something to keep an eye on.
The general idea of medium range models are to become cooler on
Wednesday, but the timing remains uncertain. Deterministic GFS
becomes cold enough for LES development by 12Z Wednesday, with the
EC showing SW flow and WAA during this time frame. Between 00 and
06Z Thursday, EC shows colder air moving in to the region and GFS
and GEM show 850mb temps already near -21C. Heading into Thursday
afternoon and Friday evening, 850mb temps remain cold enough for LES
development, but the wind field of the models show decent
discrepancies. Interactions with a suggested high pressure system
may bring a break from any LES chances as wind is calm or shows
lingering directional shear. During this time frame, the shortwave
through the desert SW mentioned earlier begins to lift through the
Ohio River Valley. The EC keeps the developing low pressure system
further north, which leaves a tighter gradient for LES to develop
on. As the GEM/GFS show this low to traverse through Dixie Alley,
the pressure gradient relaxes and creates a lull for LEs chances.
Overall, I kept some of the going forecast PoPs given dprog/dt
trends, but blended these back into the NBM given the discrepancies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 528 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020
VFR conditions will give way to increasing clouds and light snow by
late Sunday morning dropping conditions to IFR with the potential
for LIFR vsby.
&&
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 404 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2020
Expect SW at 15-25 knots tonight ahead of the next approaching
system from the Northern Plains. A lull in the winds then reemerges
Sunday before ramping back up on Monday to SW winds of 15-25 knots
ahead of another system from the northern Plains. Some winds could
approach 30 knots over the west half Mon afternoon into evening. The
strongest winds of the week look to be out of the southwest Tue
night into early Wed ahead of vigorous clipper system diving through
south central Canada. Southwest winds could approach mininal gales
across the west and north central portions of Lake Superior.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ to 10 PM EST
/9 PM CST/ Sunday for MIZ011>014.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will stall just south of Long Island by
daybreak. The front then returns north as a warm front Sunday. A
cold front then approaches the region from the west Sunday
night and passes across the area on Monday. The front then
stalls just south of the area on Tuesday. High pressure builds
into the region on Wednesday before another frontal system may
impact the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Drier air is filtering in across the interior late this evening
behind a cold front pushing south across the area.
Latest HRRR and NAMNest don`t show the cold front getting
too far south of Long Island by daybreak. Some low-level
moisture pooling along the boundary could become a concern
especially as the flow becomes easterly through the night. Dew
point spreads are forecast to be large enough to inhibit black
ice at this time, however, this will need to be watched
carefully.
Temperatures tonight will be in the 20s with low 30s across the
NYC Metro Area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A shortwave in the mid levels moves across Sunday morning into
early Sunday afternoon. At the surface, high pressure moves
northeast of the region and eventually off into the Northern
Atlantic. The flow will become more southerly eventually on
Sunday as the frontal boundary south of the region returns north
as a warm front.
Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front approaches the area Sunday night into Monday with POPs
gradually increasing through this time period. Temperatures will be
warm enough at the coast for rain, however a some snow or a
rain/snow mix is likely across inland locations Sunday night. During
the day Monday, as temperatures warm, the precipitation is expected
to become rain everywhere.
The front settles to the south of the region and stalls. A few weak
waves of low pressure may ride along the front passing south through
Tuesday. Will keep at least some chance or slight chance POPs in the
forecast through Tuesday night to account for this.
High pressure then builds into the area Wednesday followed by
another frontal boundary and wave of low pressure Thursday. Another
high builds Friday, ushering in colder air. There continues to be
differences in the global models during the late week period. As a
result, low confidence in forecast details remain for this period.
Temperatures average above normal much of the week, until late week
behind the next front and building Canadian high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front passes south of the area overnight as high
pressure passes across New England. The high moves offshore
Sunday, with the front returning north as a warm front.
Light and variable winds will become N-NE this evening at less
than 5 kt, then E toward daybreak. Winds then shift to towards
the SE-S at 5-10 kt by Sunday afternoon.
VFR through tonight. Isolated flurries cannot be ruled out early
this evening. An isolated snow shower with localized MVFR is
possible Sunday morning. mainly north and west of the NYC metro.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday Afternoon....VFR.
.Sunday Night-Monday...VFR early then MVFR or lower. Rain and Snow
mix likely inland early Monday AM changing to rain thereafter. Rain
likely near the coast. SW Gusts 15-20 kt near the coast Monday.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in chance wintry mix inland and
rain near the coast.
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...MVFR or lower possible in chance wintry mix inland and
rain near the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA has been discontinued across the ocean waters as light winds
have allowed seas to subside quicker than forecast.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for all waters Sunday.
Southerly winds increase Sunday with SCA conditions possible by
daybreak on the ocean waters. Gusty SW winds Monday will reach
25-30 kt over the ocean waters, with slightly lighter gusts on
the non- ocean waters. As a result, expect seas to build on the
ocean waters to 5 ft. Winds shift to the North, then East and
diminish as the front passes, and remains just south of the
waters Tuesday. As a wave of low pressure passes to the south,
then east, winds shift back to the W/NW and increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday, bringing the next chance of small craft
conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW