Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/04/20

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1022 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure briefly moves across the region tonight. An approaching warm front may bring some light rain Tuesday, especially south of the Mass Pike. A cold front will move south across the region Tuesday night followed by high pressure building to the north on Wednesday. Another system will likely bring a period of snow and ice changing to rain late Wednesday night into Thursday, then more rain heavy at times Thursday night into Friday which may end as a period of snow. High pressure returns Saturday, then watching a possible coastal storm tracking to the south next Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM Update... Updated sky cover based on the latest RAP guidance which has a good handle on things based on RH values at 850 hPa. Nudged down low temperatures toward the 10th percentile of guidance based on the good radiational cooling. This knocks things down into the mid 20s across some locations across northern MA. Previous discussion... A weak ridge of high pressure has allowed for skies to temporarily become mostly clear early this evening. Clouds return overnight ahead of a shortwave and approaching warm front. Temp forecast tonight is tricky as a period radiational cooling this evening will allow temps to drop before stabilizing overnight. Used a blend of 2m temps and MOS guidance which yields lows upper 20s to lower 30s for much of the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday... Warm front moves into SNE from the SW with model guidance suggesting a weak wave developing on the front. Deep moisture in place with weak low level convergence should bring some light rain to SNE. Convergence is not very strong so expect a light QPF event, generally under 0.10" and focused south of the Pike with timing from late morning to mid afternoon before moving out. Temps will reach mid 40s across CT/RI and SE MA with upper 40s near the south coast, but holding near 40 across northern MA which should remain north of the warm front and weak wave. It is possible temps hold in the upper 30s in portions of northern MA with light N/NE flow. Tuesday night... Surface wave exits early evening with a cold front dropping south across SNE during the night. Flow aloft is west so moisture will not be in a hurry to depart and could see a renewed area of light precip develop assocd with weak low level frontogenesis. Ptype mostly rain, but there could be some light snow north of the Pike after midnight if any precip does develop. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * An overall very active period with multiple systems impacting the area bringing a variety of precipitation types. * Round 1 (Wednesday Night into Thursday): Wintry mix changing to rain. Thursday AM commute could be messy. * Round 2 (Thursday night into Friday): Soaking rain with potential downpours and localized flooding. There may even be a rumble of thunder. After a mild & muggy start, falling temperatures through the day. May end as a little snow, especially in interior high elevations. * Round 3 (Sunday): After a dry and cold Saturday, there is potential for light accumulating snowfall on Sunday. Pattern looks progressive so not looking at tremendous amount of snowfall. But confidence is low this far out. Details... Wednesday into Thursday... * Wintry mix changing to rain potentially impacting Thursday AM commute * There may be some lingering leftover showers but much of Wednesday looks dry with weak high pressure over Southern Ontario. The surface high will reinforce colder air in the lower levels, so expect seasonably cold temperatures in the 30s, light northwest winds and a mix of sun and clouds. But by the afternoon, clouds will be on the increase ahead of the first in a series of shortwave troughs coming up the Appalachians. The series of shortwave energy coming our way is in response to a positively tilted upper level trough centered over the Four Corners region. Some of the Bufkit soundings support the initial onset of precipitation as snow during the pre-dawn hours. However, as warmer air moves in aloft, snow will likely change over to freezing rain and/or sleet. The timing could be problematic for the Thursday morning commute. By mid morning, the threat of freezing rain should come to an end for the coastal plains as surface temperatures warm above freezing and winds shift to the east out of the relatively warmer ocean waters. The interior higher elevations could see a more prolonged period of freezing rain due to the difficulty of getting rid of the low-level cold air. Thankfully, this is a relatively progressive system and all areas should dry out by Thursday afternoon. Overall, looking at possibly up to a couple of inches of snow, with higher amounts north of the MA turnpike. Also, a few hundredths of an inch of ice is possible in the coastal plains with up to two tenths of an inch possible in the interior high elevations. Thursday night into Friday night... * Soaking rain possible with locally heavy downpours * The main upper level trough moves east into the Mississippi River valley, resulting in a potential severe weather for parts of the Southeast. By late Thursday and early Friday, the upper level trough will move northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard. As it does so, it will lift a low across New England. While we are increasingly confident that this is a rain event, the track of the low will determine how much rain we can get from an anomalously loaded atmosphere. The GEFS Ensemble shows PWATs 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal, indicating the potential for a heavy rain event Thursday night into Friday. The question is, will the loaded atmosphere translate to observed rainfall. The ECMWF shows a 80 to 90 kt low level jet screaming up the coast. The placement of the low level jet will be key to where the heaviest rain sets up. As of now, it looks like just off shore but with the event still more than 3 days away, will have to keep a close eye due to the potential for over 2 inches of rain. The good news is that the system lifts off quickly into the Canadian maritimes, but the heavy rain rate enhanced by a strong low level jet could lead to localized flooding. Friday morning could be a raw one with wind driven rain. There may even be a rumble of thunder near the coast as EC Ensemble shows a few hundreds joules of CAPE. The other question is how much of the 850mb wind translate to the surface. With cold ocean temperatures (low 40s), there will likely be an inversion near the surface with 850mb temperatures surging to +12 or +13C. But then as colder air moves in by Friday afternoon, lapse rates are expected to steepen and winds will likely pick up at the surface. Gale headlines could be needed Friday night into Saturday, especially for the outer waters. In addition, there could be a period of light snow Friday night into early Saturday as the system exits and cold air returns. This is a strong cold front with 850mb temperatures falling to -14 to -16C by Saturday morning. There is also a small risk of freezing spray early Saturday morning. Saturday into Monday... * Seasonably cold Saturday with potential for light accumulating snow Sunday. Confidence is low this far out * Saturday looks dry and cold with sub-freezing highs possible away from the immediate coast. Models swing another trough through heading into Sunday. If Saturday temperatures pan out as they are currently forecasted, the precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the overall pattern looks to be rather progressive so currently not looking at tremendous amount of snow. Obviously, confidence remains low in the forecast at this point in time and this system will be impacted by how things pan out during the work week. After the system exits late Sunday, Monday looks mostly dry and seasonably cold. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Tuesday Night/... Tonight...High confidence. VFR, with cigs 4-8k ft returning after 06z. Light winds. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. A period of MVFR cigs are likely to develop between 15z and 18z focused south of the MA Turnpike. Localized IFR possible late near the south coast. A few light showers are possible, mainly south of the MA Turnpike. Light winds. Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. Becoming VFR in the interior, but MVFR/IFR cigs may linger near the coast, especially Cape/Islands. Spotty light rain is possible, especially south of the Pike after midnight. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SN likely, PL likely, FZRA likely. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. PL likely, FZRA likely, chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence. A brief period of west gusts to 20-25 kt possible this evening, especially eastern waters then winds and seas diminish overnight and become light. Light winds and seas below SCA Tue/Tue night. A period of light rain may briefly reduce vsbys Tue. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely, chance of snow, chance of sleet, freezing rain likely. Visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, sleet likely, freezing rain likely. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain. Friday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Chai NEAR TERM...Frank/BL SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...Frank/BL MARINE...KJC/BL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
842 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 .UPDATE... Increasing upper jet support will lead to strengthening low to mid level frontogenesis across Se Mi during the course of the night. The tightening of the low level thermal gradient along the sfc front across nrn IN/OH will draw colder air into Se Mi tonight within increasing NNE sfc winds. In terms of freezing rain/drizzle potential, the current sfc dewpoints now advecting into the area from the north (upper 20s) are a bit concerning. However, this dry air may actually be enough to limit the extent of freezing drizzle overnight/early Tues morning, perhaps even inhibit it altogether. Sfc dewpoints across the southern lakes region have been running lower than earlier model solutions suggested. The 00Z sounding was also much drier below 3000 feet than what earlier model solutions indicated it would be. The last few runs of the RAP have also been backing off the timing/amount of precip tonight. These factors will support pushing the timing of any drizzle back several hours tonight. There will still be decent low level moisture advection during the night and low level frontal forcing will strengthen markedly as the front slides south across the area late tonight/early Tues morning. These factors support maintaining a chance for some light rain/drizzle. Given the low dewpoints advecting in, there still continues to be a chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle before a more significant push of drier air arrives from the north. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 604 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 AVIATION... Low pressure will lift across nrn Indiana and Ohio tonight, leading to a developing frontal inversion across Se Mi. Moisture advection into this inversion will support the expansion of stratus from Iowa early this evening into Se Mi tonight, mainly after 02 or 03Z. Based on latest observations, model solutions seem too aggressive with respect to the rate of moistening/cloud development into Se Mi. The bulk of model solutions are also not dry enough in the boundary layer. This suggests some delay in the lower ceilings (MVFR) arriving at the terminals; likely after midnight. There is expected to be decent directional shear atop the moist layer, so drizzle remains a possibility (assuming the boundary layer can moisten a little better). The strengthening of the low level frontal boundary will increase the north-northeast flow across Lower Mi, driving colder air into the region at the surface, which supports at least a chance of some FZDZ north of FNT. The northerly flow will then start forcing drier air into Se Mi late Tues morning into the afternoon, leading to rising ceiling heights. For DTW...RAP soundings with some support of upstream observations suggest ceilings around 4k feet will develop across metro around midnight before enough moistening in the sub 3k foot layer can occur. Stronger frontal forcing and a better push of low level moisture will then support MVFR, perhaps some IFR and light rain/drizzle, early Tues morning. Temps at metro will hold above freezing. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings below 5000 feet overnight into Tuesday morning. * Very low in the occurrence of freezing drizzle Tuesday morning. Higher likelihood for temperatures to remain just above freezing during this time. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 DISCUSSION... A passing upper ridge and a very stable profile today led to benign weather conditions that will continue on into tonight as cloud cover gradually fills back in. A frontal boundary draped from central IL to northern OH today will become the focus for some light precipitation late tonight into Tuesday as a weak midlevel shortwave/jet streak tracks overhead. Low pressure will develop along the front and slide through the Ohio Valley tonight and most of the QPF will remain to our south, but just enough saturation and lift should be present in the low levels to generate some pockets of drizzle or very light showers after midnight. Temperatures will likely start off in the mid 30s when precip begins tonight, but then gradually fall below freezing from north to south as the frontal zone tightens and northerly flow strengthens through the day. This introduces the chance for light freezing drizzle with the best chance of occurring along/south of I-69 and along/north of the Irish Hills during the morning and into the early afternoon. Light snow showers will also be briefly possible if moisture quality sustains a sufficient depth. Some uncertainty still remains on how far south the freezing line will progress through the day, but thinking with daytime heating and the position of the surface front, Metro Detroit should stay above freezing through the day. By the time temps fall below freezing there during the evening, the chance for precip will have lowered significantly. Even where freezing drizzle does occur, widespread icing is not expected with how light/scattered the precip will be, though a few slick spots will be possible on untreated and elevated surfaces. Northerly flow off Lake Huron late tonight/tomorrow will lead to elevated wave action and minor lakeshore flooding concerns along the Thumb. High pressure expands over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front remains active south of the OH border. Temperatures Wednesday will be close to normal in the mid 20s to lower 30s. The dry weather will be short lived as a stronger system is set to lift through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday. The trough currently observed digging through the Great Basin will swing through the southern Plains and lift up the Mississippi Valley, leading to an open wave low forming along the nearly stationary frontal zone still draped just to our south and extending westward. Latest guidance indicates a coupled jet structure moving overhead, providing synoptic forcing for the low to develop. Models have been fairly consistent on the surface low tracking just to our southeast, placing SE Michigan within a favorable position for extra forcing via deformation. Accumulating snow is likely to start overnight Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning or possibly early afternoon. QPF has trended slightly upward with the 12z suite and the NAM has abandoned its previous dry solution. Current forecast is for a solid 2 to 4 inch accumulation. Depending on the track of the low, namely if a more northerly track is realized, there will be a chance for a wintry mix across the southern counties that may eat into snow accumulations. Upper troughing lingers over the Great Lakes Friday into Sunday as additional shortwave energy pivots overhead. This regime, paired with an arctic air mass arriving in the wake of the Thursday system, will result in potential for scattered snow showers throughout the weekend. Chances will be the highest on Friday with the initial surge of cold air, but at least a slight chance will be carried through the weekend given the broad cyclonic flow and favorable thermodynamic profiles. Temperatures will remain near normal values for early February. Large scale flow then becomes more zonal for early next week with some moderation in temperatures likely. Another chance for accumulating snow exists in the late Sunday to early Tuesday time frame, but significant system timing discrepancies exist and will bear monitoring in future forecast updates. MARINE... After being caught in between a few different high and low pressure systems today resulting in a weak pressure gradient, changes will come for the mid week period. A high pressure system over western Canada will track through the northern plains Tuesday before centering itself over the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold air within the high will strengthen the stalled front setting up across the northern Ohio Valley. Northerly winds will usher in a colder airmass which will decrease stability over the waters which in turn will allow winds to strengthen to around 30 knots. This will build wave heights along the Lake Huron shoreline necessitating a small craft advisory Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak low will track along the front Tuesday will little effect across most of the area waters. A stronger low will then lift along the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ049-055-063. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-441>443. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
441 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 .AVIATION...00Z TAF UPDATE... An approaching storm system will bring windy conditions through 08z with winds around 30G40KTS decreasing to 10-20KTS after 08z. A few areas of MVFR conditions with skies BKN030 amd visibility 3 miles in rain and mountain snow showers. Otherwise VFR conditions with skies SCT-BKN040-080. .PREV DISCUSSION...213 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Strong winds will continue into the overnight hours as we await the arrival of the first cold front Tuesday morning from the west. Tuesday will be much cooler with stagnant temperatures through much of the day. We will also see isolated snow showers over the mountains, especially over the Sacramento Mountains. A second backdoor cold front will arrive Tuesday night from the northeast, ushering in very cold air and scattered snow showers over Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Snow accumulations of One to two inches are possible for El Paso with higher amounts eastward over Hudspeth County. Six to ten inches are possible over the Sacramento Mountains. Wednesday will be very cold area wide, perhaps the coldest of the season. Temperatures will quickly rebound Thursday into the weekend as dry weather returns. More wind and rain chances will be possible early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow... High and mid level cloud cover has been filling in the area today. Winds are currently gusting up to 30 mph in the lowlands and up to 55 in the mountain zones. These winds will hold their strength as we proceed into the evening hours. East slops will continue to gust through tonight and into the early morning hours, and a continuation of the wind advisory that is out now will cover these east slopes. A very strong upper level low is currently located over central Utah, and will move south toward southern NM tomorrow. A pacific cold front attached to the low at the surface will approach the Gila around 06Z Tuesday (Midnight tonight). This will bring some light snow showers to the Gila, accumulations for Tuesday staying below 2 inches for areas above 6,000ft. Rain shower potential as the front proceeds south east will be low, until it reaches Las Cruces, around 15Z. A few showers could develop from Las Cruces to Hudspeth along the CF boundary through the early afternoon hours, especially with warmer southwesterlies at 700mb, on top of the cooler surface air mass. Accumulations are very light (under 0.2 inches), as PWATS max out around 0.38 inches in the late morning hours. Snow showers will occur most of Tuesday in the Sacramentos, and will have higher accumulations than the Gila. Snow fall below 7,500ft could total to 3 inches by 00Z Wednesday (Tuesday evening), with up to 6 inches above 7,500ft. Each CAM model is handling tomorrow`s lowland rain differently. NAM Nest brings initial showers in to El Paso and Hudspeth county with the CF Tuesday morning, and doesn`t play into the afternoon convection. NMMB and the HRRR want to play up the chance of elevated convection over the cooler surface air in El Paso and Hudspeth counties later Tuesday afternoon. GFS soundings have a pretty strong inversion around 500mb which makes sense with our southwest winds aloft, and the upper level trough axis still in AZ at this time. So I kept the chance for afternoon showers low. Temperatures will drop considerably Tuesday as the pacific cold front moves through early Tuesday morning. 20 degrees below normal in the Gila and up to 10 degrees below normal in the lowlands. More activity to come Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM... Cold air advection should be occurring areawide by Tuesday afternoon, and especially after sunset as cool air flows in from the west. Along with this, very dry air will filter in to the western half of the forecast area, effectively ending any precipitation chances west of the Continental Divide by Tuesday night. To the east, we could still see some lowland rain showers and mountain snows Tuesday evening before a major change overnight. A strong push of cold, polar air from the southern Plains will arrive shortly before midnight Tuesday night. This airmass looks to be one of the coldest we`ve seen this season, with temperatures free falling overnight to well below freezing areawide. One impact that might go under the radar would be slick roadways overnight. Any wet roadways will freeze Wednesday morning and become dangerous for morning commuters. Primary forecast problem this issuance regards the westward extent of leftover moisture to allow for snowfall, as well as the magnitude of cold air advection and timing of when snow would reach the desert floor. GFS runs have been consistently pushing moisture further east, preventing any snow accumulations across the El Paso metro. The NAM is been much more liberal, with accumulating snowfall in El Paso and higher amounts over Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Locations west of the Rio Grande will likely see little to no snowfall due to the very dry air in place. Stronger cold air advection in the NAM would allow for snow as early as midnight and continuing throughout the Wednesday morning hours. Continued model discrepancy with snow totals has led to low confidence for the I-10 corridor. With the official forecast projecting T-2" for El Paso. Further east into Hudspeth County, confidence for advisory criteria snow is higher. Expecting to see around 2-4" near Sierra Blanca, with locally higher amounts over the highlands. The highest amounts are expected to fall over the Sacramento Mountains, where we could see 24-hour totals in the 6-10" range. This looks to be just under Warning criteria, as storm totals are occurring over a 36-hour span. No winter headlines yet, but expecting products would need to be issued within the next 24 hours. Snowfall should end by early Wednesday afternoon as the upper trough axis finally progresses eastward over the area, leaving more subsident air aloft and dry west winds kicking any residual moisture out of the area. Wednesday afternoon will be very cold, especially with snow on the ground over far west Texas. Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees below average for early February. Looking at climate records, while this is very cold, it`s not quite historic. Not expecting any temperatures records to be broken despite Wednesday being one of the coldest days of the year. Bundle up! After a cold Thursday morning, we begin a warming trend into the weekend as dry, northwest flow aloft promotes mostly clear skies. Winds on Thursday could be a little breezy, though not strong enough for an advisory. Fairly quiet weather will continue into Sunday, with perhaps a few highs near 70 degrees Sunday afternoon. The extended forecast features more chances of wind and rain as global models have consistently deepened another cutoff low over the SW United States. While we could again see more impactful winds, this system looks to be more rain than snow at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Windy conditions today as a strong upper and surface system impact southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Sustained winds will be in the 25-35 mph range with gusts near 50 mph across the lowlands and 60 mph in the Blacks and Sacramento Mtns. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s most locations with a few upper 60s possible. Windy and high mixing heights result in excellent vent rates with min RH`s between 25-35% range. A pair of cold fronts will move through the region, one Monday night into Tuesday and again on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Consequently, temperatures will be in the mid 40s Tuesday and perhaps barely reaching 40 Wednesday afternoon. Good vent rates Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered snow showers will also be possible, across the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday, with accumulations reaching up to 6 inches above 7,500ft and 3 inches below. Additionally, from the lowlands of El Paso and eastward, an inch of snow will be possible late Tuesday night. Winds will be mildly breezy to breezy at times Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday to manageable levels (50s). Dry weather expected with lessening winds and mainly poor vent rates into Friday into next weekend. The good news, temperatures warm well into the 60s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 50 28 41 / 30 40 50 30 Sierra Blanca 38 54 22 34 / 20 20 70 50 Las Cruces 36 47 23 40 / 30 30 30 30 Alamogordo 37 48 21 40 / 30 30 40 30 Cloudcroft 23 28 10 21 / 50 40 60 40 Truth or Consequences 32 47 22 41 / 20 10 0 0 Silver City 28 40 21 37 / 40 10 0 0 Deming 33 49 21 42 / 20 20 10 0 Lordsburg 28 45 20 41 / 30 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 43 51 29 41 / 30 40 40 30 Dell City 36 54 18 37 / 10 30 60 50 Fort Hancock 39 59 24 41 / 20 30 70 50 Loma Linda 39 47 23 34 / 30 40 50 40 Fabens 41 55 26 41 / 30 40 50 40 Santa Teresa 37 50 25 40 / 30 40 40 30 White Sands HQ 40 49 28 41 / 30 30 40 30 Jornada Range 33 48 21 41 / 20 30 20 30 Hatch 32 50 21 44 / 10 20 10 10 Columbus 36 50 25 43 / 30 20 20 20 Orogrande 38 48 22 39 / 30 30 40 40 Mayhill 30 41 13 31 / 30 40 60 40 Mescalero 25 37 11 30 / 40 40 50 40 Timberon 27 37 12 28 / 40 40 60 50 Winston 26 40 18 36 / 50 10 0 0 Hillsboro 29 47 19 41 / 30 10 10 0 Spaceport 30 48 19 41 / 10 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 22 39 16 37 / 50 20 0 0 Hurley 27 43 18 39 / 30 10 0 0 Cliff 20 46 14 44 / 50 10 0 0 Mule Creek 23 40 20 40 / 50 10 0 0 Faywood 28 45 20 40 / 30 20 0 0 Animas 30 48 20 44 / 30 20 0 0 Hachita 29 49 18 42 / 20 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 32 49 21 44 / 30 30 10 10 Cloverdale 32 42 23 39 / 40 40 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ403>407-409>414- 417. High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ402-408- 415-416. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ404. TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for TXZ418>421-423. && $$ 05-Rogash/32/05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
632 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 632 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 Subsidence behind the mid-level trough axis brought subsidence to extreme northwest Colorado and northeast Utah early this evening. In response, snow showers have ended across the area with the exception of some light flurries in the Roosevelt area. NAMNest best depicted this area of showers and suggested it will wrap up by 03Z. All high resolution models indicated that additional snow across COZ 1 and UTZ 24 is unlikely tonight, therefore, have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories for these zones early. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1249 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 The storm is pretty much on track with the front currently over the UT/CO state line. The prefrontal air mass is dry and well mixed so winds are really gusty ahead of the front. Most of the precipitation reaching the ground is confined to the front while elsewhere dry air is causing evaporation, which is also enhancing the wind gusts. Snow has been moderate to heavy at times in the frontal band, but daytime heating has slowed the eastward progression. By late this afternoon the front should move fairly quickly towards the divide. There is still a chance for some snow bursts as strong winds have accompanied the front so brief periods of reduced visibility can not be ruled out. A lot of places in the 40s and 50s this morning are dropping into the teens and 20s so flash freezing on the roads is possible. While instability is present it might not be sufficient for upright convection. The HRRR showed the potential for lightning along the front as it gets close to the divide. Large-scale lift associated with this system is expected to gradually weaken through tonight. Regardless there should be enough orographics in the post frontal air mass, which will be especially cold, and snow ratios will decrease as a result. These snow showers will favor the northern facing slopes and continue through the day tomorrow mainly in the higher elevations. The latest models still show the secondary low pressure that develops over the San Juan mountains. The NAM is showing a noticably increase in the snow amounts tomorrow afternoon. Not sure if this is from the unstable orographics or this deepening low pressure. Overall snowfall totals have increased slightly. Temperatures are crashing behind the front with most places dropping to -10 to -20 C at 700 mb by tomorrow, so highs will feel significantly different compared to Sunday. Snow should come to an end tomorrow evening. Snowfall totals for this event seem on track, but the trends from the NAM will be considered moving forward. Tomorrow night the clouds should clear for most locations with the exception of the north side of some mountain ranges. This as well as fresh snow cover will dictate how cold the temperatures drop. It looks like single digits or colder for everyone except far southeast Utah, which only reaches the teens. The favored valleys will be gunning for -20 by Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1249 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 We will be in a deep northwest flow regime as the ridge pumps up again off the Pacific Coast. IVT parameters suggest another decent and prolonged flow of moisture into and around the periphery of the ridge through the late week period. This will basically turn the snow guns on across the Colorado mountains. The northern mountains ranges look to do especially well while the rates taper off into the northern San Juans. Models may be overdoing things attm but looks likely snow will be measured in feet at places by the Saturday morning as the flow begins to back more to the west and the moisture field is wrung out. The Elks, Flat Tops, Gore, Park and Elk Heads should all be adding some good snowpack by the time this long term event ends perhaps on Saturday. Another trough will be digging into the PacNW early in the weekend and there is decent model agreement that this upper low closes off over southern California early next week. This system will eventually drop another front and some precipitation into the area by late weekend. This again could be a prolonged event lasting into early next week. Temperatures will stay below normal through the late week period with some gradual warming late in the period across the West. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 529 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 A potent, cold low pressure system will continue to move through the area overnight, lingering along the Continental Divide on Tuesday. Frequent, MVFR and IFR conditions will impact TAF sites east of a north-south line through KGJT this evening. Chances are reduced later tonight and Tuesday, but 25 to 40 percent shower chances persist for sites east of a KHDN-KRIL-KTEX-KMTJ line with CIGS below ILS breakpoints from KRIL, KEGE and KASE for much of the period. Areas west of the line will have VFR conditions throughout the next 24 hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ003>005- 009-010-012-013-018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ002. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for UTZ025. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM MST Tuesday for UTZ023. && $$ UPDATE...NL SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...TGJT AVIATION...NL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a deep trough positioned across the western states and confluent mid- level flow over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes ahead of this trough. Despite some mid-level returns upstream, ample dry air below 700mb has kept the region dry. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front is moving southeast across northwest Wisconsin early this afternoon. Temperatures fall into the single digits and teens behind this front over northern Minnesota. As arctic high pressure builds southeast into the region, forecast concerns generally revolve around clouds and temps. Tonight...The cold front will continue to move southeast across northern Wisconsin this evening, switching winds to the north. Cold advection will increase behind the front while arctic high pressure noses into the state. As a result, temperatures will trend colder tonight. But because of a steady wind, and persistent mid and high clouds overhead, went with a blend of the best performing guidance (emcwf products) and the national blend. Forecast soundings indicate the dry wedge will persist below 700mb tonight. Wind trajectories dont appear to veer enough for a chance of lake effect precip along the Lake Michigan shoreline, so maintained a dry forecast. Tuesday...Little changes as north to northwest winds will continue to cold advect prolonging the cooling trend. Precip will remain tied to the primary frontal system over the Ohio Valley while high pressure draws closer to the state. Will continue to see mid and high clouds overhead which will lead to filtered sunshine. Lake clouds may also make a run towards far northern WI due to growing instability over Lake Superior. Highs ranging from the upper teens in the north woods to the middle 20s over northeast WI. .LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Surface high pressure will provide dry weather to the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A short wave trough lifting north from the Central Plains could bring some light snow to east Central Wisconsin late Wednesday night and early Thursday but any accumulations should be light. Northwest upper flow and surface high building in from Lake Winnipeg should bring dry weather Thursday afternoon through Saturday, though some lake effect flurries are not impossible. A surface low moving across the Central Plains towards the Western Great Lakes Sunday or Sunday evening looks like it should have access to Gulf moisture and could produce some significant snows in Wisconsin. There is reasonable agreement with the GFS and ECMWF but too far away to have a lot of confidence at this point. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 VFR conditions are expected for tonight and Tuesday with mid and high clouds passing overhead due to low pressure that is forecast to move from the mid-MS Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes tonight and into the northeast CONUS Tuesday. North winds are forecast to increase tonight as the low pressure passes to our south. Some lake clouds may drift into north-central WI later tonight, but remain mainly north of the RHI TAF site. High pressure will build into the Upper MS Valley on Tuesday with winds backing northwest and diminishing. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......AK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 .UPDATE... The AVIATION and NEAR TERM sections have been updated && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 A slow moving frontal system is expected to affect the area into Thursday. In the wake of this system, high pressure will move into the area for the later parts of the week, and on into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Had to raise winds and few knots and add gusts to 25 knots the rest of the night overall all but far northern counties based on trends and the RAP which was indicating a tight surface pressure gradient south of the cold front, which was just northeast of KLAF at 02z. Radar was showing the bulk of the echoes over areas near and south of Vincennes and Bloomington. This agrees well with ongoing PoPs. Still, nothing seen on the obs but light rain from AC deck. Previous discussion follows... Issued at 638 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Sped up PoPs per radar echoes and ob over Daviess county that was showing sprinkles. Previous discussion follows... Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Short term model data suggest frontal system currently over far northern Indiana will begin drifting into the far northwest zones around 040600Z, reaching the central zones by sunrise Tuesday. Lift and gradual saturation of the precipitation bearing layer will begin over the southwest zones during the early evening hours, and should gradually spread northward tonight. Will start to bring in PoPs over the southwest zones by 040100Z, and gradually spread them northeast with time tonight. Short term models hint that the more organized lift late tonight may set up south of the local area, closer to where the low level jet will be. Given the warm advection ahead of the front tonight, not expecting temperatures to fall off to much, with much of the temperature fall occurring in the post frontal zone. As a result, will raise the GFS MOS lows tonight, especially over the southern zones which should stay in the warm sector most of the night. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/... Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Complicated forecast during this period, as several waves of low pressure ripple along a frontal system that is expected to gradually sink south with time. Models in general agreement in sagging the front south of the forecast area by Tuesday evening, as a weak wave ripples along the front. Will keep the PoPs rather high into Tuesday evening as a result, especially over the southern zones, and then taper them off later Tuesday evening as the wave pushes off to the east. It appears enough cold air may wrap into the system, mainly in the lower levels, to support a change over to a wintry mix from north to south as the event winds down Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thicknesses look to remain rather high into Tuesday evening, so this lends more support towards a wintry mix than just snow. Depending on how fast things change over, potential exists for some light snow or ice accumulations late Tuesday afternoon or evening. Models suggest a stronger low pressure system will ride up the front in the Wednesday night or Thursday morning time frame. There is still quite of bit of variance among the ensembles as the track of this system, ranging from across southeast Indiana to eastern Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Majority of the ensembles suggest the heavy snow axis will be northwest of the local area, although some of the more southerly solutions would put the heavier snow axis into the northwest zones. Will bring higher PoPs back into the area for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday to cover this system. Thicknesses still look rather high, suggesting better potential for a wintry mix over snow. Additional snow or ice accumulations are possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Headlines may be required at some point, when the track of the surface low becomes more certain. With the front still expected to be in the process of moving through the southern zones Tuesday, will raise the GFS MOS highs several degrees over the south. Highs on Tuesday expected to be in the morning, with temperatures falling off during the day under cold advection. Will narrow the diurnal range of the guidance by Wednesday and Wednesday night, given expected cloud cover and precipitation. && .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/... Issued at 150 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 ECMWF depicts the upper flow during this period transition from a departing trough on Friday toward a more zonal flow by Monday. The strong mid week system is expected to exit the area by Friday...leaving cyclonic lower level flow in place at the surface. That flow appears to linger through Friday before giving way to high pressure at the surface...building across the area from the upper midwest. Thus have kept some low pops for Thursday Night and early Friday with light amounts for possible wrap around precip. A few short waves look to pass during the course of the weekend within the zonal flow aloft...but with high pressure remaining in place at the surface...moisture appears limited. Thus have trended toward a dry forecast through the weekend and into Monday. NBM tries to inject pops on Monday...but with little support indicated aloft...confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 040300Z IND TAF Update/... Issued at 920 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Will have to add gusts to near 25 knots for all but KLAF as discussed in NEAR TERM update. Previous discussion follows... Issued at 620 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 A slow moving cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana after 06z. Radar echoes suggest the rain showers could move in earlier than expected, but latest obs continue to just show a 10K foot ceiling and not precipitation reaching the ground. Still, brought in VCSH earlier than the blend at 00z-05z. Good confidence the flying conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and below after 04z-07z as the front gets closer. Best chances of rain will be after 07z-11z. This is when the blend brings in prevailing rain, which looks reasonable. Low level wind shear is likely through 07z as a low level jet moves overhead. Winds will shift from southwest to north and northeast behind the front that will move through after 14z and earlier at KLAF. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS/MK SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....Puma AVIATION...MK
...Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Monday afternoon: This afternoon, an upper level through is pushing out of the Rockies and beginning to progress eastward. Ahead of the trough, weak lift could bring some very small chances of drizzle this afternoon in far southeast Nebraska. However, chances have quickly diminished over the last few hours. Any saturation in minimal, with mid levels remaining dry. A look at RAP soundings and RH fields show dry air continuing to push in from the north and should essentially eliminate any drizzle chances by this afternoon. Temperature have also increased to just above freezing today in the southeast, so any winter impacts are near zero. Additionally, Sunday`s pleasant temperatures have likely led to warmer road temperatures which will limit any impacts this afternoon. Because of these reasons, have elected to cancel the winter weather advisory early. Tuesday and Tuesday night: Tuesday, expect the previously mentioned trough to move through the area, bringing a chance of light snow to the southern half of the CWA. The last several model runs have consistently pushed the best moisture with the system to the south of out area, however, still expecting to be on the northern edge of precipitation so have kept a broad area of light snow in the forecast. Another glance at model soundings showed more potential saturation issues for Tuesday. Like the forecast today, the snowfall tomorrow will be limited by a punch of dry air advecting from the north into the mid-levels. The one good thing with this system are the temperatures aloft. Models showing widespread 850 mb temps of -10c where precip is expected. So thankfully this will be an all snow event and none of that yucky wintry mix that we have seen a lot this winter. With the limitations discussed, have kept snowfall amounts around a half inch in far south Nebraska with lower amounts farther north. Not expecting any accumulations north of a line from Omaha to Columbus. Expect any lingering snowfall to taper off Tuesday night. For temperatures, Tuesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures around 25 degrees across much of the area. Tuesday night lows are expected to drop back into the teens as well. Wednesday and beyond: Other than some lingering snow early Wednesday morning, expect a dry forecast on Wednesday. Through the rest of the week, the upper level trough will slowly move through the area. Additional chances for light snow will be possible as a few shortwaves swing through on Thursday and Sunday. Not expecting anything significant with the late week system beyond some slight chances of light snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020 Patchy MVFR ceilings will be possible this evening, otherwise look for mainly mid level clouds to prevail through the period. Winds will remain brisk from the north. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...Miller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 517 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 Updated to add areas of freezing rain and drizzle to the Highway 50 corridor from Pueblo, east to near La Junta. Area webcams are iced up, especially in and around Pueblo. Radar indicates snow filling in out west in Fremont County to Pueblo West, where snow may be heavy this evening. Expect snow to fill in across the region overnight. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 ...Areas of freezing drizzle occuring in the greater Pikes Peak region... ...Snow for all areas tonight. and VERY COLD with on and off snow tomorrow... Currently... Areas of freezing drizzle are causing issues across the Pikes Peak region as quite a few accidents have been reported, including cars sliding off the US-50 into the Arkansas River. Over the remainder of the plains it is just cold and overcast with temps holding steady in the 20s to lower 30s. Over the higher valleys skies were generally party cloudy, while along mtn tops it was overcast and it was snowing in spots according to CDOT web cams. Rest of Today into Tonight... In the short term, main concern is the freezing drizzle in the greater Pikes Peak region. This freezing precip will likely continue until at least late afternoon before it changes to snow during the later afternoon or early evening. Cant rule out some freezing precip over the rest of the plains but T/Td spreads are still relatively quite high the farther east you go. Areas primarily along the I-25 corridor should have the best threat of freezing drizzle the rest of this afternoon. Snow is near certain for most, if not all, of the region tonight. Model trends of the HRRR has been showing increasing amounts on the east slopes of the s mtns and I-25 corridor region and have tweaked amounts up a bit. However these amounts may need to be increased further if model trends continue. For now, 2-4 inches look like a good bit along the I-25 corridor region with locally higher amounts in the Monument Hill area, the Walsenburg area and Raton Pass regions. Over the east slopes of the S mtns, 6 to 12 inches are likely. Over the interior valleys, snowfall amounts will be less with 1-3 inches likely. INterior mtns should see 2-6", with locally higher amounts in the San Juans. Over the far eastern plains we should see 1 to locally 3 inches of snow. It will be cold tonight, but with the clouds and snow, it will not be too cold. expect lows teens most of the plains with some single digits over the Palmer Divide, single digits, both positive and negative, will occur in the mtns and valleys. Tuesday... With the lingering mid level trough hanging back, I anticipate periods of snow showers will continue across the region. It will be cloudy and it will be very cold, with max temps only reaching into the teens and 20s across the plains and valleys. Winds will not be all that strong but any winds will make it feel even colder. Apparent temperatures will be in the positive and negative single digits, with readings in the negative 10s and negative 20s over the mtns. Ridge lines will even be colder. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 Initially, accumulating snow is expected to be on a decreasing/ending trend over southern Colorado Tuesday night with an additional inch or so of snow expected(especially into the evening) and favoring locations such as the Sangre De Cristo and Wet Mountains as closed upper low located over northeastern Colorado at sunset Tuesday shifts into central Nebraska by sunrise Wednesday. In addition, the coldest minimum temperatures of this Winter are expected Tuesday night as well below seasonal early February minimum temperatures 0F or colder are projected over nearly all of the forecast district. Please take precautions in regards to the projected very cold temperatures from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Latest forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer simulations then support moderating temperatures and dry conditions over the forecast district from Wednesday into Thursday morning(outside of the Central Mountains, where accumulating snow will be possible) as northwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado. Then, another round of unsettled meteorological conditions in combination with generally below seasonal temperatures should be realized from later Thursday into Friday night as next system(per PV analysis/etc.) impacts the area. A brief respite should then be noted this weekend with drier and warmer conditions anticipated in advance of next system bringing another round of changeable meteorological conditions as well as colder conditions by next Monday as next system impacts southern Colorado. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 344 PM MST Mon Feb 3 2020 KCOS and KPUB... IFR likely through tomorrow with some improving conditions later tomorrow. Freezing drizzle will be an issue the remainder of this afternoon at both TAF sites, but it should change to snow by late afternoon or early evening. 2-4 inches of accumulations are expected at both KCOS and KPUB with this event with the heaviest snow this evening and early tonight. KALS... Conditions will deteriorate by early evening with the best chance of snow late this evening through tomorrow morning. An inch or two will be likely. Conditions should improve later in the afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Tuesday for COZ086>088. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Tuesday for COZ072-073- 076>085. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060- 066-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST Tuesday for COZ074-075. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY